WAR 03-19-2016-to-03-25-2016_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****

Housecarl

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(207) 02-27-2016-to-03-04-2016_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...04-2016_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****

(208) 03-05-2016-to-03-11-2016_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...11-2016_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****

(209) 03-12-2016-to-03-18-2016_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...18-2016_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****

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http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...ecific-ban-on-Nuclear-Weapons-in-Constitution


For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://ajw.asahi.com/article/behind_news/politics/AJ201603190027

No specific ban on N-weapons, says key Cabinet legal expert

March 19, 2016
THE ASAHI SHIMBUN

The head of the nation's legal watchdog said Japan's Constitution does not necessarily ban the use of nuclear weapons, but qualified the remark by saying their use is restricted under domestic and international laws.

“I am not thinking that the use of all kinds of nuclear weapons is banned under the Constitution,” Yusuke Yokobatake, director-general of the Cabinet Legislation Bureau, told the Upper House Budget Committee on March 18 in response to a question from Shinkun Haku of the opposition Democratic Party of Japan.

He made the remark after saying, “Limitations exist (on the use of nuclear weapons) under Japanese laws and international laws.”

Given the Japanese government's policy of “three non-nuclear principles” to not possess or manufacture nuclear weapons or allow them into Japanese territory, it is extremely rare for a person in Yokobatake's position to mention the use of nuclear weapons, even though he also referred to limitations.

“Nuclear weapons are a kind of weapon. My understanding is that, irrespective of whether they are nuclear weapons or not, any weapons should be used under the limitations permitted by domestic laws and international laws,” Yokobatake said.

In a news conference the same day, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga doused any notion of Japan using a nuclear weapon, saying, "Impossible."

However, Suga did not take issue with the substance of Yokobatake’s argument.

"I have received a report from the Cabinet Legislation Bureau that he (Yokobatake) made the reply based on remarks made by officials of the bureau in the Diet in the past,” Suga said.
 
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Housecarl

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http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/20...-japans-use-nuclear-weapons-cabinet-official/

National / Politics

Constitution does not specifically ban Japan’s use of nuclear weapons: Cabinet official

JIJI
Mar 19, 2016

Japan’s Constitution does not necessarily ban the use of nuclear weapons, Yusuke Yokobatake, director-general of the Cabinet Legislation Bureau, said Friday.

“We don’t think that the use of all kinds of nuclear weapons is prohibited under the Constitution,” the head of the constitutional watchdog told the House of Councilors’ Budget Committee in response to a question from Shinkun Haku of the opposition Democratic Party of Japan.

But “the use of weapons, not just nuclear arms, is restricted under domestic and international laws,” Yokobatake also said, adding that the use of nuclear weapons by Japan is unrealistic.

The remarks may cause repercussions at home and abroad, although they are in line with the government’s past statements, including a 1959 remark by former Prime Minister Nobusuke Kishi.

The government sticks to the country’s nonnuclear principles of not possessing, not producing and not allowing the entry of nuclear weapons into the country.

At a press conference the same day, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga flatly denied the possibility of Japan using a nuclear weapon. “The government does not think of such a thing at all,” he said.

During the parliamentary meeting, the DPJ lawmaker also asked whether it is possible for Japan to use a nuclear weapon overseas as it engages in collective self-defense, or uses force to help an ally under attack.

Yokobatake denied the possibility. “There has been no change in our view that we cannot send overseas a force that is beyond the minimum required to defend our country,” he said.
 

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http://nationalinterest.org/feature/north-koreas-nuclear-program-irreversible-15537

Is North Korea’s Nuclear Program Irreversible?

Complete, verifiable and irreversible denuclearization is a tall order.

Elizabeth Philipp
March 19, 2016

Pandora’s box is open: North Korea possesses nuclear knowledge, and isn’t shy to show off the rewards of its scientific efforts, including its latest unveiling of an alleged miniaturized nuclear bomb. But is it possible to put North Korean nuclear expertise back in the box and convince the capricious regime to denuclearize? Recently, the international community has given a renewed effort to doing just that.

Diplomats are fixated on the “complete, verifiable and irreversible denuclearization” of North Korea’s nuclear program. This concept, known as CVID, has been the goal of the international community for the North Korean nuclear program, dating back to the Six-Party Talks of the early 2000s. Many experts define CVID to mean that North Korea must relinquish all nuclear weapons (complete); submit to international nuclear monitoring, as nearly all states do (verifiable); and that it must be difficult for North Korea to rebuild its nuclear weapons program undetected (irreversible).

Language calling for CVID is present in all five UN Security Council Resolutions on North Korean nuclear proliferation since 2006. It is also present in new legislation enacted by the United States in February 2016, which stipulates that no sanctions on Pyongyang will be lifted until the state “has made significant progress toward” CVID, among other requirements.

For years, the United States has insisted that to return to negotiations, Pyongyang must first take steps towards CVID. This requirement is problematic for two reasons: First, it is counterproductive to set the goal of negotiations as a precondition to talks. Second, it’s likely that the North Korean nuclear program is inherently not reversible. The latest Security Council resolution, however, takes a stab at countering this issue of irreversibility.

Irreversibility or Close Enough

North Korea has relied on international assistance, whether through official or illicit channels, to train its scientists. Security Council Resolution 2270, unanimously adopted on March 2, 2016 following North Korea’s fourth nuclear test and a second satellite launch using ballistic missile technology, includes a ban on providing sensitive nuclear-related training to North Korean scientists. This ban will limit North Korea’s nuclear potential by denying it that assistance. Furthermore, if North Korea were to submit to international demands for CVID, such a ban would thereby impede North Korea’s ability to reconstitute its nuclear program in the future.

According to Paragraph 17 of the resolution, the Security Council “Decides that all Member States shall prevent specialized teaching or training of DPRK nationals within their territories or by their nationals of disciplines which could contribute to the DPRK’s proliferation sensitive nuclear activities or the development of nuclear weapon delivery systems, including teaching or training in advanced physics, advanced computer simulation and related computer sciences, geospatial navigation, nuclear engineering, aerospace engineering, aeronautical engineering and related disciplines…”

By restricting Pyongyang’s access to sensitive technical knowledge, the international community is taking action to dampen North Korea’s nuclear weapons progress into the future. This is a positive step. But North Korean scientists will continue to train their future generations, and the reality is that North Korea’s nuclear knowledge cannot be eradicated. Fissile material production, nuclear device design and ballistic missile development are part of Pyongyang’s scientific portfolio for now, and irreversibly so. By limiting Pyongyang’s access to more advanced technologies that facilitate quicker and more efficient nuclear progress, new sanctions provide an expanded but still passive approach to this issue, waiting for the decay of the North Korean nuclear industry. A better solution, however, would be proactive diplomatic engagement in tandem with these new nonproliferation measures.

Engage North Korea

Sanctions and scientific isolation alone will not undo the North Korean nuclear program. The United States and its partners on the North Korean issue must continue to push for the resumption of negotiations with North Korea, aimed at the peaceful denuclearization of the Korean peninsula. Instead of insisting on CVID as a precondition for negotiations, as the United States has done in the past, the United States and its partners should focus on accomplishing a near-term freeze on North Korean nuclear and missile development, to be maintained during negotiations instead.

A fully and permanently denuclearized Korean peninsula is an admirable goal, but this desire for CVID should be tempered with the understanding that technological advancement may not be reversible; true irreversibility may well be unattainable. In the near term, the best that the international community may be able to accomplish is to prevent North Korea from gaining additional technical knowledge or acquiring materials for its weapons program by enforcing Security Council sanctions. The long-term goal should be to welcome North Korea back to the nonproliferation regime and address its security concerns, thereby eliminating its impulse to possess nuclear weapons in the first place.

Elizabeth Philipp is the Herbert Scoville Jr. Peace Fellow at the Arms Control Association. She is an alumna of Fulbright Korea and the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.
 

Housecarl

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http://www.reuters.com/article/us-ukraine-crisis-russia-idUSKCN0WL0EV

World | Sat Mar 19, 2016 6:20am EDT
Related: World, Russia

Risk of nuclear war in Europe growing, warns Russian ex-minister

BRUSSELS | By Robin Emmott


The East-West standoff over the Ukraine crisis has brought the threat of nuclear war in Europe closer than at any time since the 1980s, a former Russian foreign minister warned on Saturday.

"The risk of confrontation with the use of nuclear weapons in Europe is higher than in the 1980s," said Igor Ivanov, Russia's foreign minister from 1998 to 2004 and now head of a Moscow-based think-tank founded by the Russian government.

While Russia and the United States have cut their nuclear arsenals, the pace is slowing. As of January 2015, they had just over 7,000 nuclear warheads each, about 90 percent of world stocks, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.

"We have less nuclear warheads, but the risk of them being used is growing," Ivanov said at a Brussels event with the foreign ministers of Ukraine and Poland and a U.S. lawmaker.

NATO's secretary general Jens Stoltenberg has warned Russia of intimidating its neighbors with talk about nuclear weapons, publicly voicing concerns among Western officials.


MISSILE DEFENSE

Ivanov blamed a missile defense shield that the United States is setting up in Europe for raising the stakes.

Part of that shield involves a site in Poland that is due to be operational in 2018. This is particularly sensitive for Moscow because it brings U.S. capabilities close to its border.

However, the United States and NATO say the shield is designed to protect Europe against Iranian ballistic missiles and is neither targeted at Russia nor capable of downing its missiles.

"It can be assured that once the U.S. deploys its missile defense system in Poland, Russia would respond by deploying its own missile defense system in Kaliningrad," Ivanov said, referring to Russia's territory in the Baltics.

In remarks that are likely to alarm European and NATO diplomats seeking a political solution to the separatist conflict in Ukraine that has killed more than 9,000 people since April 2014, Ivanov also said Europe and Russia have little chance of a broader reconciliation.

"The paths of Europe and Russia are seriously diverging and will remain so for a long time ... probably for decades to come," Ivanov said, adding that Russia could not be the eastern flank of a "failed greater Europe."

"These beautiful plans, we have to forget," he said, adding that Russia's destiny was now as the leader of a greater Eurasia stretching from Belarus to the Chinese border.


(Editing by Alexander Smith)
 

Housecarl

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For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-blast-idUSKCN0WL0D5

World | Sat Mar 19, 2016 8:15am EDT
Related: World

Five killed, 36 wounded in suicide bombing in central Istanbul

ISTANBUL/ANKARA | By Nick Tattersall and Orhan Coskun


Five people including a suicide bomber were killed and 36 wounded in a suspected attack by Kurdish militants on a major shopping and tourist district in central Istanbul on Saturday.

The fourth suicide bombing in Turkey this year hit part of Istiklal Street, a long pedestrian zone lined with global brand name shops and foreign consulates, just a few hundred meters from an area where police buses are usually parked.

Preliminary findings indicate that the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) or an affiliate carried out the attack, a senior Turkish official told Reuters.

"The attacker detonated the bomb before reaching the targeted point because they were scared of the police," the official said, adding the bomber had planned to hit a more crowded spot.

Armed police sealed off the shopping street where half a dozen ambulances had gathered. Forensic teams in white suits scoured the area for evidence. Police helicopters buzzed overhead and panicked shoppers fled the area, ducking down narrow sidestreets.

"My local shopkeeper told me someone had blown himself up and I walked toward the end of the street," one neighborhood resident told Reuters.

"I saw a body on the street. No one was treating him but then I saw someone who appeared to be a regular citizen trying to do something to the body. That was enough for me and I turned and went back."

Istiklal Street, usually thronged with shoppers on weekends, was quieter than normal before the blast as more people are staying home after a series of deadly bombings.

Health Minister Mehmet Muezzinoglu confirmed that 36 people had been wounded and seven of those were in serious condition. Twelve of the wounded were foreigners, he said. Israel's foreign ministry confirmed some of its citizens were among the wounded.

"We as a nation are unfortunately now face to face with a situation of unlimited, immeasurable acts that are inhumane, defy human values and are treacherous," Muezzinoglu said.


DEADLY BOMBINGS

A suicide car bombing in the capital Ankara killed 37 people this month. A similar bombing in Ankara last month killed 29 people. A Kurdish militant group has claimed responsibility for both of those bombings.

In January, a suicide bomber killed around 10 people, most of them German tourists, in Istanbul's historic heart, an attack the government blamed on Islamic State.

NATO member Turkey faces multiple security threats. As part of a U.S.-led coalition, it is fighting Islamic State in neighboring Syria and Iraq. It is also battling PKK militants in its southeast, where a 2-1/2-year ceasefire collapsed last July, triggering the worst violence since the 1990s.

In its armed campaign in Turkey, the PKK has historically struck directly at the security forces and says that it does not target civilians. However, the recent bombings suggest it could be moving toward a tactical shift. A claim of direct responsibility for Saturday's attack could underscore that.

The PKK is looking to carry out attacks aggressively during the coming Newroz spring holiday, the official said. Newroz, which falls on March 21, is Kurdish New Year.


(Additional reporting by Ayla Jean Yackley, Asli Kandemir, Humeyra Pamuk and Daren Butler; Writing by David Dolan; Editing by Tom Heneghan)
 

Housecarl

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http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-raqqa-idUSKCN0WL0IW

World | Sat Mar 19, 2016 8:10am EDT
Related: World

Dozens killed or wounded in air strikes on Syria's Raqqa: Syrian Observatory

BEIRUT


Dozens of people were killed or wounded in a series of air strikes on the city of Raqqa in northern Syria on Saturday, Britain-based monitoring group the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said.

It said the dead included women and children and more than 60 people were wounded. It did not specify whether Syrian or Russian forces had conducted the air strikes.

A cessation of hostilities in Syria took effect three weeks ago, reducing violence but not halting the fighting as peace talks take place in Geneva. The deal does not include al Qaeda or Islamic State militants, whose de facto capital in Syria is Raqqa.


(Reporting by John Davison; Editing by Janet Lawrence)
 

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Paris Attack Fugative Salah Abdeslam Captured in Belgium Police Raid
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...alah-Abdeslam-Captured-in-Belgium-Police-Raid


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http://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-shooting-abdeslam-idUSKCN0WK1KB

World | Sat Mar 19, 2016 7:40am EDT
Related: World

Captured Paris attacks suspect moved from Belgian hospital to jail

BRUSSELS | By Philip Blenkinsop and Hortense de Roffignac


Belgian police moved Europe's most wanted man from hospital to a high-security jail on Saturday, where he will face questions about the Paris attacks and likely charges, a day after his arrest in a Brussels shootout.

Salah Abdeslam, 26, the first person suspected to have played an active part in attacks in Paris to have been taken alive, was held in a Brussels hospital after being shot in the leg during Friday's police raid near his parents' home.

He and a second man, identified as Monir Ahmed Alaaj, are expected to appear before a magistrate, who should outline the charges they face and authorize their detention for five days.

Belgian and French prosecutors were also discussing on Saturday how to proceed with the investigation.

Security services will be seeking information from Abdeslam on Islamic State plans and structures, his contacts in Europe and Syria and support networks and finance. Over the past four months, France and Belgium have detained several people linked to the prime suspects but none they suspect of a major role.

French President Francois Hollande, who had been visiting Brussels for a European summit when Friday's drama unfolded, has said France would seek extradition for the Brussels-based Frenchman. Abdeslam was, Hollande said, definitely in Paris on the bloody night of Friday, Nov. 13 when 130 people were killed.

Belgian Prime Minister Charles Michel summoned security and intelligence chiefs to an emergency sitting of Belgium's national security council, for the second time in four days.

Belgian Foreign Minister Didier Reynders told reporters that authorities had possibly foiled another attack.

"We are very happy to have taken such an important step in the investigation into to Paris attacks, but we're not at the end of the road," he said.

Friday's swoop came after fake passports and Abdeslam's fingerprints were found following a bloody raid on Tuesday in which Mohamed Belkaid, a 35-year-old Algerian not on security watchlists, was shot dead and police officers wounded.


Related Coverage
› Parisians express relief, want justice after Abdeslam arrest


ON THE RUN IN BRUSSELS

Abdeslam has been on the run for four months after returning from Paris to Brussels hours after the Nov. 13 attacks.

His elder brother, a Brussels barkeeper who shared a chequered history of drugs and petty crime, blew himself up outside a Parisian cafe that night. Hollande said the younger man's role in the killings was unclear, but investigators were sure he helped plan the operation for the Syria-based group.

Since all the identified attackers were killed, Abdeslam offers France a chance to understand what happened.

Related Video

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Paris attacker caught after Brussels shootout

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Fugitive from Paris attacks wounded in Brussels shootout: media

Hollande said that many more people were involved in the attacks on a sports stadium, bars and cafes and a concert hall than first thought.

One of those may be Alaaj, who using the false name Amine Choukri had been briefly picked up by German police with Abdeslam in southern Germany in October 2015.

Near to the scene of Friday evening's raid in the Brussels borough of Molenbeek, Dominique, the owner of a newspaper and tobacco shop who said he knew Abdeslam, said the gunshots had been a shock for the whole community.

"Originally a very nice boy. How can it go that far? That's something else," he told Reuters television.

Related Coverage
› Paris attacks prime suspect went underground in Brussels

FINGERPRINTS

Molenbeek is a down-at-heel borough that is home to many Muslim immigrants, notably of Moroccan descent like Abdeslam's family. There had long been speculation about whether Abdeslam had stayed in Belgium or managed to flee to Syria.

A man and two women, members of what prosecutors said was "the family which hid Abdeslam," were detained with the two wanted men and will be questioned. Investigators will want to know how extensive a network, under a code of silence, was able to hide such a high-profile fugitive in a busy inner city neighborhood just a few hundred yards from his parents' home.

Security agencies' difficulties in penetrating some Muslim communities, particularly in pursuit of Belgium's unusually high number of citizens fighting in Syria, has been a key factor in the inquiry, along with arms dealing in Brussels.

A four-month inquiry that had seemed to go cold, heated up when French and Belgium officers went to an apartment in the southern Brussels suburb of Forest on Tuesday.

Thinking they were simply looking for physical evidence, they were instead confronted by at least two people spraying automatic gunfire at them as they opened the door.

Then on Friday, local media reported, a tapped telephone confirmed that Abdeslam was in the house in rue des Quatre-Vents in Molenbeek. After French media broke word that Abdeslam's fingerprints had been found, police moved in and seized him.


(Writing by Philip Blenkinsop; Editing by Alastair Macdonald and Alexander Smith)
 

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https://www.commentarymagazine.com/foreign-policy/africa/africas-nuclear-market-rogues/

Africa’s Nuclear Market for Rogues

Michael Rubin / Mar. 18, 2016

Some nuclear deals, in hindsight, look prescient. Many conservatives warned against Ronald Reagan’s outreach to Soviet Premier Mikhail Gorbachev but, in hindsight, Gorbachev was sincere in his desire to reduce the nuclear threat. And while many contemporaries criticized Reagan’s support for a military build-up in Europe as well as ‘fanciful’ schemes like the Star Wars anti-ballistic missile system, today Reagan looks prescient: he rebuilt leverage and used it to maximum effect.

History has not looked as kindly on subsequent arms accords. The 1994 Agreed Framework with North Korea began to unravel almost as soon as it was implemented. It is now apparent that Russia has cheated on more recent arms accords; disturbingly, the State Department may have lied about it. Despite partisan affirmation for the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), it already looks shaky: Both President Barack Obama and Secretary of State John Kerry seemed to recognize from the start that they could not defend their agreement on its merits or content, and so sought to win approval with procedural somersaults rather than treat it as a treaty. In the first months of the agreement, Iran has already violated provisions regarding the import of weaponry and, arguably, the firing of ballistic missiles which, contrary to Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif’s claims, violate the accord by explicitly suggesting through painted-on slogans that their aims is to eradicate Israel, thereby exposing the real intent of Iran’s missile program. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps continues to say they will refuse any inspections of suspect nuclear sites. The Obama administration and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), for their part, have sidestepped that issue by refusing to test the right to access, which the nuclear deal supposedly grants.

One of the biggest loopholes, however, is the problem of off-site research. Iranian nuclear and missile scientists are ever-present at North Korean nuclear and missile tests. The State Department can ignore that problem, but it seems to be getting worse and it’s not just limited to what Iran might do in North Korea.

According to Defense News:

The Namibian government has confirmed that North Korea built an arms and ammunition factory in the African country and is in the process of executing other contracts for the construction of the country’s first military academy, military barracks and a new headquarters for the Ministry of Defense (MoD). The confirmation came a week after the government refuted the recent United Nations Panel of Experts (PoE), which found that Pyongyang has continuously violated UN Security Council sanctions imposed to protest its nuclear weapons program by providing military weapons, training and embarking on military-related construction projects in African countries, including Uganda and Namibia.

That’s North Korea, but there’s a pattern here with Iran as well. A few years ago, I analyzed Iran’s extensive outreach into Africa. A few patterns emerged: Iran targeted its assistance to African states which sat as non-permanent members of the UN Security Council or in the IAEA Board of Governors. In effect, Tehran sought to buy their votes. Iran also provided aid in exchange for logistical bases or services, for example, in Djibouti, Sudan, or Senegal. Finally, a pattern existed — too extensive to be coincidental — in which Iranian authorities reached out to states which had significant uranium resources and which were building the facilities to bring those to market. Hence, Iran-Namibia relations were growing steadily.

That Namibia had acknowledged its relationship is troubling. That this is a tip of the iceberg both in Namibia’s foreign relations and sub-Saharan Africa’s willingness to partner with Iran and North Korea is more troubling. But, the most distressing aspect of the story is that U.S. authorities prefer to look the other way, even as Iran and North Korea’s offsite research, acquisition, and manufacturing undercut the efficacy of non-proliferation agreements and other safeguards.
 

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http://www.washtimesherald.com/iran...cle_8289acd2-a32e-5ec2-bcb5-27c4f4268a6f.html

Iran's missiles and the nuclear deal

Cal Thomas
3 hrs ago

It seems like only yesterday — and in diplomatic terms it was — that the Obama administration and Democrats in Congress were assuring us the nuclear deal with Iran was something to celebrate, as one might laud the winning of a Nobel Peace Prize.

More sober thinkers, fearing Tehran would never comply with the agreement, envisioned Iran gaining access to $100 billion in frozen assets and using it to underwrite terrorism. When Iran’s radical leaders believe they get their marching orders directly from Allah, there is no way they would violate those instructions, which include the eradication of Israel and the defeat of the “Great Satan,” which would be America.

Last week, as part of a military exercise, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard launched several medium- and short-range missiles capable of reaching Israel.

The Washington Post reported, “The longer ends of that range appear to exceed limits that the U.N. Security Council has imposed in connection to resolutions banning Iran from developing missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads.” Predictably, Iran denies any of its missiles are designed to carry nuclear weapons. Islamic extremists are permitted by the Koran to lie to infidels in pursuit of their earthly goals.

In another exercise in denial, an Obama administration spokesman claimed to be unaware of any missile launch. He should turn on his TV because the networks have carried video that purports to show them. The spokesman would only say, “It’s important that Iran live up to its obligations under the (nuclear) deal.” That’s not about to strike fear into the Mullahs.

Two of the ballistic missiles reportedly carried messages in Hebrew that said, “Israel must be wiped out.” It’s nice that Iran is not hiding its intentions, though U.S. diplomats and too many politicians refuse to take these gestures seriously.

President Obama assured us that if Iran violated the agreement, sanctions could be re-imposed, but that won’t be effective, especially after unfrozen cash has already been transferred to Tehran. Now even Democratic presidential candidate and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has seen the light after favoring the Iran deal. Clinton issued this statement following the missile launch: “Iran should face sanctions for these activities and the international community must demonstrate that Iran’s threats toward Israel will not be tolerated.”

Contrast that statement with one she made at the time the deal was announced. Last July, Clinton called it “an important step in putting the lid on Iran’s nuclear program,” adding that she was “part of building the coalition that brought us to the point of this agreement.”

It’s going to be difficult for her to squirm out of responsibility should Iran reach its goal of creating nukes. Or will she argue that the success or failure of the U.S.-Iran deal depends on the meaning of the word “agreement.”?

Readers may email Cal Thomas at tcaeditors@tribpub.com.
 

Housecarl

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http://www.ibtimes.com/north-koreas...pport-additional-tests-anytime-report-2339559

North Korea¡¦s Punggye-Ri Nuclear Test Site Can Support Additional Tests Anytime, Report Says

By Sneha Shankar †y@SnehaShankar30 On 03/19/16 AT 5:22 AM

As North Korea increases its nuclear advancements, its nuclear test site Punggye-ri is believed to be capable of supporting additional tests at any time, Yonhap reported, citing a website that monitors the Kim Jong Un regime. The website, 38 North, cited the satellite imagery showing continued activity at the site to support the claim.

The report from 38 North said, according to Yonhap, that the activity at the Punggye-ri underground test site does not indicate that the country is looking for a further excavation of a tunnel, but the country seems to be focused on maintaining existing tunnels and cleaning up after the alleged nuclear test in January. ¡§It is highly likely that site is capable of supporting additional tests at any time,¡¨ 38 North said, according to Yonhap.

The website took into account the satellite imagery from March of the North Portal, where Pyongyang conducted the January test. The report said that the portal remains active with footpaths around the buildings. The report also said that it looked as if the water was draining from the drainage ditch near the entrance. The images and the water leaks back claims that the branching tunnels lead to other test chambers as the shaft that was used during the test in January, would have been sealed off completely to prevent a leakage of radioactive materials, 38 North said, according to Yonhap.

¡§If there are other unused shafts at the current North Portal, they are being drained in order to maintain them for future detonations,¡¨ the report by 38 North said, according to Yonhap.

The report also said that several visible vehicle tracks and footpaths indicate that the main support area was also active. The snow from the South tunnel was also being cleared, suggesting that the tunnels that were excavated in 2009 and 2012, were being maintained for further tests.

The report comes as North Korean leader Kim Jong Un called to strengthen the country¡¦s nuclear capabilities and produce more nuclear weapons, over the last few days. The country has so far faced sanctions over its nuclear advancements, missile tests and a rocket launch in February.

Last week, Pyogyang claimed that it had mastered the missile re-entry technology, which allows the missiles to return to Earth after flying in space. However, that claim was contested by the South Korean Defense Minister Han Min-koo on Friday.

Han made the allegation during a televised address where he said that the existing re-entry vehicles can withstand over 7,000 degrees Celsius of heat along with other ablation effects like extreme pressure and vibrations. He also said that the reclusive country may have made several advancements making small nuclear weapons but its claims of owning a real nuclear warhead was questionable.

¡§I don't think North Korea has gained the re-entry technology in this test and many experts also share that point,¡¨ Han said, according to Yonhap, adding: ¡§North Korea has steadily conducted nuclear tests, and now it has become a realistic threat.¡¨

Han reiterated that the South Korean military, which is conducting its largest ever annual drills with the U.S., stands ready to tackle the North Korean threat. He also warned that Pyongyang is technically ready to conduct another nuclear test at any time.

¡§We should squarely face the fact that North Korea's nuclear weapons are aimed at South Korea, not other countries,¡¨ Han said Friday.
 

Housecarl

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EU, Turkey Strike Migrant Deal; Erdogan Gets €6 Billion (and accelerated EU membership!)
Started by Possible Impact‎, Yesterday 09:54 AM
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...ets-€6-Billion-(and-accelerated-EU-membership!)


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Posted for fair use.....
http://www.realclearworld.com/blog/2016/03/the_eus_deal_with_turkey_what_comes_next_111768.html

The EU's Deal With Turkey: What Comes Next?

Posted by Kaj Leers on March 19, 2016

Turkey and the European Union achieved a Herculean feat, finally sealing a deal that has been in the works since October. According to the agreement, Syrian refugees fleeing to the Continent via Turkish-Greek waters will be sent back to Turkey. With this, European leaders hope to put a stop to the hitherto unstoppable influx of asylum seekers from the Syrian civil war. However, now comes the hardest part, one at which the European Union has in the recent past proven incredibly inept: actually executing the agreement.

Starting this Sunday, Syrian refugees reaching Greek shores will be processed in Greece and then sent back to Turkey. From there, the deal stipulates, the European Union will take refugees and redistribute them among the member states that are willing to accept them. This will happen according to the so-called 1-for-1 rule demanded by Ankara: For each refugee taken back by Turkey, another one will be taken in by an EU member state.

The goal of the deal with Turkey is to stem and regulate the flow of asylum seekers. The deal should also allow the European Union and Turkey to better distinguish proper war refugees from migrants fleeing economic and social hardship in other countries.

Once Syrian refugees understand that there is no point in fleeing to Greece, as they will be sent back to Turkey anyway, they will stop undertaking the perilous journey to Greece -- so goes the reasoning. On paper, this should turn Turkey into one big, EU-financed refugee camp. Of course, this assumes the erratic Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will not use refugees as a tool to blackmail the European Union into accepting new demands.

Right now, such concerns lie in the future. The immediate problem now facing the European Union is whether its member states actually will follow through on their promises.

Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte -- the temporary chairman of the Council of Ministers of the European Union -- recently lamented that the Union's biggest problem has always been the delivery on promises made.

The very reason why the Syrian refugee crisis became a sudden, massive problem for the European Union was that member states in the past decade simply refused to put their money where their mouth is. Former European Commission chairman Jose Manuel Barroso on Dutch television criticized EU member states for refusing to commit themselves to an EU-wide border regime and delivering the goods for it: money, personnel, and ships to monitor and guard the Mediterranean Sea.

Properly enforcing a tight border regime along the Mediterranean shoreline and the Bulgarian Black Sea shore will be paramount to preventing smugglers from finding new routes to herd refugees into Europe.

If the member states again fail to live up to their promises, the expensive deal with Turkey will have been for naught.


The views expressed here are the author's own.
 

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http://asia.nikkei.com/Politics-Eco...-guard-against-more-missiles-from-North-Korea

March 19, 2016 4:30 am JST

Japan steps up guard against more missiles from North Korea

TOKYO -- Japan is deploying missile-intercept systems in nearby waters and at its defense headquarters in Tokyo in response to the latest North Korean missile test.

Pyongyang fired what appears to be a Nodong medium-range ballistic missile into the Sea of Japan on Friday morning. The missile was launched near Sukchon in the country's west, traveling 800km to hit the water about 650km east of the Korean peninsula. The area is part of Japan's Air Defense Identification Zone.

"Japanese aircraft or ships could have been passing the area," said a top official of the Japanese Defense Ministry. "It's very dangerous."

Alerted by news Tuesday that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un intended to conduct a test launch, Japanese Defense Minister Gen Nakatani had given an undisclosed order for the Self-Defense Forces to intercept missiles. He issued a new order Friday to prepare for more firings.

An interception would be attempted in two steps. First, the Maritime Self-Defense Force's Standard Missile 3 would be fired at any target flying in space at an altitude of 100km or more. If this fails, then Patriot Advanced Capability-3 missiles of the Air Self-Defense Force would aim for it a little over 10km above the earth's surface.

The Defense Ministry is now deploying PAC-3 missiles at its headquarters in Tokyo's Ichigaya area. Unlike in February, when North Korea fired a long-range missile which it called a rocket launch of a satellite, Pyongyang this time did not reveal the timing or trajectory of the launch. "It's difficult to decide the location of deployment without knowing the route," said a senior ministry official.

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe told a meeting of the upper house budget council Friday that the government will prepare thoroughly to respond to any situation by stepping up surveillance, among other actions.

Pyongyang appears agitated by ongoing joint military exercises between South Korea and the U.S. The Japanese government expects that North Korea may increase its provocations further.

The Nodong missile has a range of around 1,300 kilometers, which could reach almost any part of Japan. It could target U.S. military bases in the country, a Japanese official said.

South Korea's Foreign Affairs Ministry criticized the North, saying Pyongyang ignored the consensus of the international community reflected in Security Council resolutions. The ministry called the launch a serious provocation that threatens the peace of the Korean peninsula and the world.
 

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http://news.yahoo.com/us-member-killed-northern-iraq-pentagon-143034651.html

US service member killed in northern Iraq: Pentagon

AFP
1 hour ago

Washington (AFP) - A US service member was killed in northern Iraq on Saturday, a Pentagon spokesman told AFP, with US media reporting it came after a rocket attack on a base.

The US-led coalition against the Islamic State group earlier said that a service member had been killed due to enemy action, but had declined to specify the nationality of the dead.

The last US service member to be killed in Iraq as a result of hostile enemy action was Army soldier Master Sgt. Joshua Wheeler, who died in October during a rescue mission, also in northern Iraq, CNN and other media said.

The latest fatality came after an indirect fire rocket attack on a base at Makhmur, CNN said, citing a US official and saying that a "small number" of other American troops were wounded in the attack.

It was not exactly clear how many and the Pentagon spokesman declined to give further details.

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http://news.yahoo.com/iraq-forces-major-push-against-anbar-070212224.html

Iraq forces in major push against IS in Anbar

AFP
7 hours ago

Baghdad (AFP) - Iraqi forces have launched a broad offensive to retake the city of Hit from the Islamic State group in the western province of Anbar, a top commander said Saturday.

Led by the elite Counter-Terrorism Service, forces from the police, army and local tribal fighters were making a final push to retake Hit, 145 kilometres (90 miles) west of Baghdad.

"They have begun a broad operation to liberate Hit and Kubaysa," Major General Ali Ibrahim Daboun, the head of the Al-Jazeera Operations Command, told AFP.

Kubaysa is a smaller town a few miles west of Hit, a key hub along the Euphrates that the jihadists have controlled since October 2014.

Daboun said Iraqi security forces and tribal fighters had retaken a cement plant west of Kubaysa and raised the Iraqi flag there.

"Members of the terrorist Daesh (IS) gangs have fled back into the town centre," the head of the local council for Al-Baghdadi district, Malallah al-Obeidi, told AFP.

Daboun said Iraqi aircraft and jets from the US-led international coalition were providing air support.

Al-Asad military air base, which houses a large contingent of US and other foreign military advisers, lies around 35 kilometres northwest of Hit.

Iraq's security forces launched a final push against IS in Anbar's provincial capital Ramadi late last year and established full control over the city last month.

Aid agencies have voiced concern over the fate of an estimated 35,000 civilians who have fled Hit and its surroundings in the run-up to the latest military offensive.

The International Committee of the Red Cross said late Friday that thousands of freshly displaced people were stranded in areas where very little assistance is available.

The organisation said it was able to deliver aid for the first time on Friday to around 12,000 people west of Ramadi.

"We don't know how they managed to survive. Repeated access is crucial in order to help the remaining thousands of people who urgently need humanitarian aid," said Katharina Ritz, head of the ICRC delegation in Iraq.

IS still controls vast areas of Anbar province near the borders with Jordan and Syria, as well as the city of Fallujah, which is only 50 kilometres from Baghdad.

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http://news.yahoo.com/syria-sees-no-progress-peace-talks-blasts-un-155510085.html

Syria sees 'no progress' at peace talks, blasts UN mediator

AFP
20 minutes ago

Geneva (AFP) - A week of Geneva peace talks on Syria has proved fruitless, a source close to the Damascus government said Saturday, blaming UN pressure to end the five-year war.

"We have seen no progress these past five days," the source told AFP, criticising UN mediator Staffan de Mistura for urging Damascus to unveil a detailed transition strategy.

"Mr De Mistura does not have the right to put pressure on anybody. He is the mediator in the discussions and should not take anybody's side," he added.

Earlier pro-governmental Syrian daily Al-Watan said the talks -- held indirectly between the two sides via the UN mediator -- had failed to produce "any significant result."

De Mistura conceded Friday he was "still detecting large distances" between the government and main opposition High Negotiations Committee (HNC) at the talks, which are due to resume Monday.

The opposition meanwhile were sanguine in their assessment, while criticising the "manoeuvres" of the Damascus government delegation.

"For the opposition, it was an opportunity to show its unity and willingness to participate effectively in a peace process," said HNC representative Bassma Kodmani.

"In contrast we do not see any readiness on the other side to do the same. We see many manoeuvres on their part. From that standpoint I am not very optimistic," Kodmani said.

The regime's lead negotiator Bashar al-Jaafari, spoke only briefly Friday after meeting de Mistura and refused to take questions, saying Damascus had laid out "fundamental principles for a political solution to the crisis".

But De Mistura, who noted the peace drive had helped essentially maintain a fragile ceasefire since being declared on February 27, urged the regime to go much further and said he hoped for detailed submissions within the week.

The HNC has made the departure of President Bashar al-Assad a non-negotiable demand, but Damascus has termed any talk of the president's removal "a red line."

The talks are designed to oversee the formation of a transitional administration as the country seeks to move beyond a civil war that has killed more than 270,000 people and displaced millions.

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http://nationalinterest.org/blog/th...ow-abe-redesigned-japans-foreign-policy-15522

The Architect: How Abe Redesigned Japan’s Foreign Policy

Piyush Singh
March 17, 2016

Starting in early 2013, Japan’s Foreign policy turned resurgent with an eye on China. After years of dormant foreign policy, Japan under Prime Minister Shinzō Abe has moved with vigor to secure its international and security interests, resolving the wartime sexual slavery [4] issue with South Korea, securing a strategic partnership with India and opening up Japan’s defense industry after years of a self-imposed ban. This is done with a focus on China’s rise and its implications for the regional security architecture. Abe sees China as a revisionist power and is preparing for a future in which Japan has to contend with China as the main geopolitical force in the Asia-Pacific. He has concentrated his national and international policies on Japan’s changing national security objectives, with both a national and an international perspective regarding its foreign policy and security objectives.

National Obstacles

Abe’s biggest opponent in the alteration of the pacifist constitution and revamped military posture are his own citizens. After the brutal experience of WWII, the Japanese have long been content to remain a dormant power under the safeguards of the U.S. security alliance. The Japan-U.S. alliance has stood the test of the time, but the principles on which it was signed are now antiquated [5]. Japan faces a changing and potentially aggressive neighborhood in the form of North Korea and its nuclear ambitions, followed by China's rising power projections in recent years. Abe revised Article 9 [6] of the constitution, which addresses renouncing war as a means to settle international disputes. He felt that the article was demeaning to the citizens of Japan, and hence wanted Japan to realign itself as an equal power, alongside the United States, based on its economy as well as military strength.

China Threat

Japan-China relations have been fraught since WWII, with each nation invoking wartime rituals to remind each other of the horrors committed in the past. In his remorseful speech last year, Shinzō Abe apologized for the crimes Japan committed during WWII, but argued that it does not mean future generations Japanese [7] have to keep apologizing for the same mistakes, ignoring its evolving security environment. The Japan-China rivalry goes back millennia, and though they share a highly profitable economic relationship they are not likely to become friends anytime soon.

China’s military reform and modernization are what spurred Abe into action. He realized the current security needs of the country cannot be met under a 1950s pacifist constitution, especially Article 9. Starting in 1990, China began a rapid modernization of its military forces with a particular focus on its navy. China’s forays into what Japan considers its territorial waters in the East China Sea and its aggressive action in South China Sea sounded alarm bells in Tokyo, and Abe feared that a rising China would become a more aggressive China and concerned the international community would move toward appeasement [8].

International Agenda

Shinzō Abe, in his first term as prime minister spoke of an Asia Security Diamond to counter the threat of China in the Asia-Pacific. Though not yet formalized, this initiative continues to gain traction among the proposed member-states. The Security Diamond would include Australia, India, the United States and Japan. [9]

India is an important piece of Abe’s national security puzzle. India holds a key to resisting China’s rise, both militarily and economically. As China’s economy slows, one may expect the Chinese to create disturbances along the Indian border so as to divert attention from pressing issues at home. India has showed great restraint in its military posture with regards to Chinese aggressiveness, in part, because it knows the sort of negative impact a different approach would have on its economy. Investing in India is not only an economic choice for Japan, but also a strategic one. It is investing in its future as a rising power, and is projected to invest over 10 billion dollars in India over the course of the next five years. [10] Many in Japan, frowned upon the Indo-Japan nuclear deal, including members of both the main political parties, but it was India’s potential which Abe wanted to tap into for Japan’s security interests. It remains to be seen whether India can utilize all this largess to truly build itself as economic superpower.

Abe is also improving ties with Russia, mainly for the energy potential the relationship possesses. He is also concentrated on Africa [11] and Central Asia, two areas where China has a large advantage. Additionally, defense relations with ASEAN Countries are on an upswing, mainly due to increased Chinese assertiveness in the South China Sea. Shinzō Abe hopes to build an alliance out of these countries to secure Japan’s security and energy demands, the latter of which it is heavily dependent on others for.

Shinzō Abe’s foreign policy is different from many of his predecessors. He is an out-and-out reformer, both on the international stage and domestically, and his domestic economic success fuels his diplomacy. And in this diplomacy, he has shaken Japan out of a self-imposed security apathy and plotted a more pragmatic national course. Under Abe, Japan is working to make itself ready to take its role in global power politics more seriously and to create a meaningful impact promoting world peace and prosperity.

Piyush Singh [12] is Junior Research Associate at Takshashila Institution, a strategic affairs think tank in India. This article [13] originally appeared in the Bridge.

Image [14]: Flickr/ Presidencia de la República Mexicana.

Tags
Japan [15]Shinzo Abe [16]Security [17]defense [18]foreign policy [19]
Topics
Security [20] [3]

Links:
[1] http://nationalinterest.org/blog/th...ow-abe-redesigned-japans-foreign-policy-15522
[2] http://nationalinterest.org/profile/piyush-singh
[3] http://twitter.com/share
[4] http://www.wsj.com/articles/comfort-women-deal-faces-backlash-in-seoul-1451557585
[5] http://www.theatlantic.com/internat...its-time-to-rethink-your-relationship/262916/
[6] http://www.cfr.org/japan/shinzo-abe/p36523
[7] http://www.theguardian.com/world/20...w-apology-second-world-war-anniversary-speech
[8] http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...-to-use-its-voice-as-part-of-chinese-led-bank
[9] http://logos.nationalinterest.in/2014/02/the-significance-of-asias-democratic-security-diamond/
[10] http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2015-12-13/news/69006246_1_pm-shinzo-abe-india-fund-oda
[11] http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/20...th-funds-for-peace-and-security/#.VqknE8f-Tdl
[12] https://twitter.com/Piyushs7
[13] http://www.thestrategybridge.com/th...resurgent-foreign-policy-architect-shinzo-abe
[14] https://www.flickr.com/photos/presi...Vay-e9L8QA-osLXrH-e9ErFX-ouAwC4-obj4tu-e9JyxN
[15] http://nationalinterest.org/tag/japan
[16] http://nationalinterest.org/tag/shinzo-abe
[17] http://nationalinterest.org/tag/security
[18] http://nationalinterest.org/tag/defense
[19] http://nationalinterest.org/tag/foreign-policy
[20] http://nationalinterest.org/topic/security
 

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http://www.iiss.org/en/events/event...ias-latent-nuclear-powers-us-book-launch-2d5f

Asia's Latent Nuclear Powers: Japan, South Korea and Taiwan

Book Launch
Mark Fitzpatrick, Executive Director, IISS–US
Robert Gallucci, Former State Department Special Envoy for North Korea Nuclear Negotiations
IISS–US, Washington DC
Thursday 17 March, 10–11am EST

Video
https://youtu.be/M3oXpK4yaKQ

Under what conditions would the democracies in Northeast Asia seek to join the nuclear weapons club? Japan, South Korea and Taiwan are threshold nuclear powers by virtue of their robust civilian nuclear energy programs. All three once pursued nuclear weapons and all face growing security threats from nuclear-armed adversaries. IISS-US Executive Director Mark Fitzpatrick's latest book, Asia's Latent Nuclear Powers, analyses these past nuclear pursuits and current proliferation drivers.

A discussion and Q&A session on Asia's Latent Nuclear Powers and nuclear diplomacy in Northeast Asia was held with Executive Director Mark Fitzpatrick and Robert Gallucci, former State Department special envoy and dean of Georgetown University's School of Foreign Service. This event was on the record and was webcast live on the IISS website. Copies of the book are available for sale on our website.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

After ten years heading the IISS Non-Proliferation and Nuclear Policy Programme, Mark Fitzpatrick moved to Washington in December 2015 to also take on the role of Executive Director of the office here. Mr. Fitzpatrick's research focus is on preventing nuclear dangers through non-proliferation, nuclear security and arms control. He has lectured throughout Europe, North America and Asia and is a frequent commentator on proliferation and disarmament on BBC, NPR and other news outlets. He is a founding member of the EU Non-Proliferation Consortium and a member of the World Economic Forum Global Agenda Council on Nuclear Security.


Ambassador Robert Gallucci served as Dean of Georgetown University's School of Foreign Service for 13 years until he left in July 2009 to become president of the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation. He was appointed dean in 1996, after 21 years of distinguished service in a variety of government positions, focusing on international security. As Ambassador-at-Large and Special Envoy for the US Department of State, he dealt with the threats posed by the proliferation of ballistic missiles and weapons of mass destruction. He was chief U.S. negotiator during the North Korean nuclear crisis of 1994, and served as Assistant Secretary of State for Political Military Affairs and as Deputy Executive Chairman of the UN Special Commission overseeing the disarmament of Iraq following the first Gulf War.

The meeting was chaired by Jennifer Golden, Managing Director, IISS-US. The meeting took place at IISS-US, 2121 K Street NW, Suite 801, Washington, DC 20037.
 

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http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2016...ic-State-rocket-others-injured/5311458400237/

U.S Marine in Iraq killed by Islamic State rocket, others injured

By Daniel Uria | March 19, 2016 at 12:54 PM

MAKHMUR , Iraq, March 19 (UPI) -- An American Marine who was part of the U.S.-led coalition fighting the Islamic State was killed in Iraq when an enemy rocket struck a base in the town of Makhmur.

Pentagon Press Secretary Peter Cook confirmed the death and said the marine was "providing force protection fire support at a recently established coalition fire base near Makhmur in northern Iraq."

The causality was not identified, as next of kin are still awaiting notification. Cook added that several other Marine's were also wounded in the strike and were being treated for "varying injuries."

"Our thoughts and prayers areý with the service members involved, their families and their coalition teammates who will continue the fight against ISIL with resolve and determination," Cook said in a statement.

USA Today reported a second rocket also hit the base, but it didn't cause any damage or casualties.

"[Combined Joint Task Force] extends our condolences to the family and loved ones of the Coalition service member killed in northern Iraq earlier today," Col. Christopher Garver, a spokesman for the task force, said Saturday on Twitter.

This death represents the first U.S. service member to be killed since Master Sgt. Joshua L. Wheeler was killed by small arms fire while supporting an attempt to free 70 hostages held by the Islamic state in October.
 

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http://globalnation.inquirer.net/137947/chinese-vessels-ram-ph-fishers-boat-at-panatag

Chinese vessels ram PH fishers’ boat at Panatag

By: Allan Macatuno@inquirerdotnet
Inquirer Central Luzon
02:17 AM March 20th, 2016

SUBIC, Zambales—Chinese Coast Guard rubber boats rammed and damaged a boat carrying 11 Filipino fishermen at Panatag Shoal (international name: Scarborough Shoal) in early March, in a move likely to heighten tensions between the Philippines and China in the hotly disputed South China Sea.

The fishermen, who arrived here early Saturday after a 16-day fishing trip to Panatag Shoal, said they were driven away by the Chinese Coast Guard twice, on March 5 and 6.

China seized the shoal from the Philippines after a two-month standoff between Chinese and Philippine vessels in 2012.

It has since cordoned off the shoal, driving away Filipino fishermen from their traditional fishing ground.

Without military muscle to retake the shoal, the Philippines filed a case in the United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration in January 2013, asking the tribunal to invalidate China’s claim to almost all of the South China Sea.

The Philippine move angered China, which started to build artificial islands in the South China Sea to bolster its claim to the strategic waterway.

With a ruling expected from the arbitral tribunal in coming weeks, China has started activities at Panatag that the United States, which has detected Chinese movements around the shoal, says could be a precursor to more land reclamation in the South China Sea.

Exclusion zone

Adm. John Richardson, head of US naval operations, reported the Chinese activity at Panatag on Thursday, expressing concern that a ruling by the UN tribunal in favor of the Philippines could be a trigger for Beijing to declare an exclusion zone in the South China Sea.

Richardson said the United States was weighing responses to such a move by China in the strategic waterway where $5 trillion in global trade passes every year and where islets, reefs and atolls are believe to be sitting atop vast energy reserves.

Junmar Pumicpic, 25, captain of the FB Bubhoy, said they were fishing near the shoal around 9 a.m. on March 5 when Chinese coast guards in rubber boats arrived and drove them away.

Well within PH territory

The shoal is located 230 kilometers from Masinloc, Zambales province, well within the Philippines’ 370-km exclusive economic zone.

It is also known as Bajo de Masinloc to residents of this coastal town.

“One of their rubber boats carried three men in uniform. [They] approached us and told us in English to leave,” Pumicpic said.

“This is China Coast Guard. Go back to Subic,” he said, quoting one of the Chinese coast guards as saying to them.

“We were surprised that they knew we were from Subic. After telling us to leave, they returned to the shoal and we thought [that was it],” Pumicpic said.

But after a few minutes, the boat returned and rammed the fishing boat several times, he said.

“We were all traumatized by what they did to us. Some of us were shaking. We thought they were going to sink our boat,” he said.

The boat held, but it was damaged in the ramming, he said.

‘Tug of war’

Another member of the fishing trip, Reynante Caitum, 22, said the Chinese coast guards engaged them in a “tug of war,” pulling the rope tied to a small boat that was aboard the fishing vessel.

“They wanted to get our service boat, but we resisted. We lifted the anchor to pull away and save our lives,” Caitum said.

Pumicpic said the Chinese coast guards came again on March 6 and drove them away shining blinding laser devices and powerful lights on them.

The incidents were captured on video, Pumicpic said.

“We gave the video to the Philippine Coast Guard detachment in Subic. I hope they will make an official report about it,” he said.

Pumicpic said the fishermen showed no fear, taking out knives and harpoons to defend themselves.

“We feared for our lives and we thought of our families. But if they intended to kill us, we were determined to fight back,” he said.

DFA has no information

In Manila, the Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) said it had no information about the incident.

Charles Jose, spokesperson for the DFA, said the incident had to be verified. With a report from Tarra Quismundo
 

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http://www.defensenews.com/story/de...n-qatar-ties-help-fund-rafale-order/81760578/

Japan-Qatar Ties Help Fund Rafale Order

Pierre Tran, Defense News 5:07 p.m. EDT March 19, 2016

PARIS — Japanese banks drew on close commercial ties to Qatar when they lent funds that helped Doha pay last year’s down payment for Rafale fighter jets and missiles worth €6.3 billion ($6.8 billion), financial specialists said.

A bank loan to Qatar, a nation rich in oil and gas reserves, signaled an economic shift for the Arabian Gulf nation and its strong business ties to Japanese lenders and construction companies.

“Qatar can borrow relatively cheaply on the international bank market as there is huge collateral with the Qatar sovereign fund,” said Stéphane Audrand of the consultancy Sylmaris. There is also long-term collateral with Qatar’s export energy contracts.

The sovereign fund is valued at $256 billion, according to the Sovereign Wealth Fund Institute, which specializes in institutional investors.

"The relations between Qatar and Japan are unique, focused on construction and LNG," said Sash Tusa, analyst with equity research firm Agency Partners.

The two countries have shared interests, with Japanese companies working on construction projects for the 2022 World Cup soccer tournament in Qatar, which supplies liquefied natural gas to Japan, he said.

Qatar paid the deposit for the Rafale deal Dec. 16, finally putting into effect contracts signed eight months earlier on May 4. A down payment is usually 15 percent of the total amount.

The order included 24 Dassault Aviation fighters and 12 options, and guided weapons from MBDA and Safran’s Sagem. The French Air Force will also train Qatari pilots and maintenance personnel.

Japanese banks lent Doha funds for the down payment, said a French executive and a financial specialist who declined to be identified.

Qatar expects its economy this year to fall into a $12.8 billion budgetary deficit, representing 6 percent of gross domestic product, according to the CIA World Factbook. “Low oil prices have dampened the outlook,” the report said.

That budgetary upset comes after several years of strong growth, which delivered an estimated 2015 average income of $145,000, the world’s highest average income, according to the report. Japan is Qatar’s leading trade partner, accounting for 25.3 percent of exports, followed by South Korea's 18.8 percent and India's 12.7 percent.

The Qatari bank loan reflects a steep fall in oil prices. The benchmark Brent crude oil hit a 12-year low of $27.10 on Jan. 20, Reuters reported. The oil price has since risen but that firmer path was partly due to talks by energy producers to freeze production in a bid to prop up prices.

Japanese banks have major business interests in Qatar, which is building transportation and infrastructure projects for the World Cup.

A consortium led by Mitsubishi Heavy Industries won an order estimated at some ¥400 billion (US $61.5 billion) to build a subway in time for the soccer tournament, Japan Times reported Feb. 21. Consortium partner Thales will supply the signaling system, while Hitachi will handle train maintenance.

Last year, Thales also won a security contract for Qatar Hamad port, a large commercial facility which will also be the site for a naval base.

In early January, Qatar closed a $5.5 billion syndicated loan, arranged by six banks including three Japanese lead lenders: Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, Mizuho, and Sumitomo Mitsubishi Banking Corp, Reuters reported. Qatar National Bank, Deutsche Bank and Barclays helped arrange the five-year loan, expected to carry a margin of 90 basis points over London Interbank Offered Rate.

A basis point is 1/100 of a percentage point.

Qatar had previously hoped to raise $10 billion with a smaller margin of some 80 basis points, International Financing Review reported.

“The expected slowdown in the Qatari economy is likely to be seen as short-term risk, unlikely to deter Japanese bank lenders, which hold large amounts of cash and are looking for borrowers,” Audrand said.

The Japanese banks can offer low-cost financing as they draw on ample funds, with the Bank of Japan injecting cash in a quantitative easing policy in a bid to boost the sagging economy.

Japanese banks have shown some public concern on lending on weapons, as indicated in a ban by Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ on lending to builders of cluster bombs, but there is greater pressure on European lenders.

“European banks are under tight regulatory control on credit risk and deeper scrutiny under corporate social responsibility,” Audrand said.

That may have made it hard for French banks to lend to Qatar for the Rafale as there is geopolitical risk, with tension rising with Iran and the Islamic State, he said.

US banks were unlikely to have funded the Qatari order as that would likely displease Boeing, a competitor to Dassault in the fighter market, the financial specialist said.

Qatar seeks acquisition of 73 F-15E Strike Eagle fighters, with 36 in a first tranche, US Senate Foreign Relations Chairman Bob Corker has said. The White House is expected to decide soon whether that deal will go ahead, as the Defense and State Department support for the request.

Doha announced in June a planned order for four Boeing C-17 transports.

Qatar is seen as a large arms market, announcing in 2014 a plan to buy two Airbus A330 multirole tanker transport aircraft and 22 NH90 helicopters.

France hopes to sell a planned DCNS air defense frigate, while Nexter has pitched the Véhicule Blindé de Combat d'Infanterie (VBCI), an infantry fighting vehicle, to Qatar, which is reportedly looking for 200 to 600 units.

The Qatari deal with France includes MBDA Mica air-to-air and Meteor long-range, air-to-air missiles, Scalp cruise missiles, and Sagem's armement air-sol modulaire (AASM), a powered smart bomb, French defense officials said.

Islamic State forces are active in the Middle East and there is also rising tension with Iran, which is close to Russia. Moscow has authorized delivery to Teheran S-300 surface-to-air missiles in a deal reported to be worth $800 million and which previously had been suspended.
 

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http://www.defensenews.com/story/war-in-syria/2016/03/19/putin-russia-syria-options/81961604/

Putin Leaves All Options on the Table in Syria

Matthew Bodner, Defense News 5:15 p.m. EDT March 19, 2016

MOSCOW — The first wing of Sukhoi Su-34 fighter-bombers landed in the southern Russian city of Veronezh on Tuesday, just under 24 hours after Russian President Vladimir Putin announced mission accomplished in Syria. The military had achieved most of its goals, and it was time to pack up.

At the airfield, friends and families of Russian aviators lined the tarmac as they waved the Russian tricolor to celebrate the unexpected homecoming. As the Su-34s popped their drogue chutes to slow to final rest in their Syrian expedition, a military band blared patriotic tunes for the state television cameras.

The precise number of Russia’s 60-or-so aircraft to return home from Syria has yet to be specified. Additional wings of aircraft were shown last week in Defense Ministry videos on Facebook to depart the Syrian government-held airbase in Latakia from where they conducted 167 days of strikes on targets in Syria.

The March 14 announcement appeared to catch both the expert community and officials in Washington off guard. The decision appeared to be made at the very top, experts said, and American officials found themselves in the awkward position of being unable to comment on Russia’s actions. What was clear, however, was that Putin’s announcement coincided with the first day of a new round of peace talks in Geneva, set to last through March 24.

So where does Russia's drawdown leave the situation in Syria as well as its own standing in global affairs?

“The pullback leaves the [High Negotiations Committee] without an excuse to ignore the peace talks, or come up with new demands, because their key demand has been met: Russia is no longer pounding opposition-controlled areas,” said Yury Barmin, a Russian international affairs analyst. “At the same time, [Syrian President Bashar al-]Assad is getting a signal that he no longer enjoys Russia’s unconditional support, and will have to be more flexible and more cooperative.”


DEFENSE NEWS
Jordan Says It Knew of Russian Drawdown Plan in Syria


Fred Hof, a former senior adviser on Syria for the Obama administration, now with the Atlantic Council, said that it remains unclear what Russia’s intentions are and what kind of combat capability will be left behind in Syria. What is clear, he said, is that Putin bolstered Assad’s negotiating position in Geneva.

“I think his objective is to force the US into a working relationship with Bashar,” Hof said. “This would enable him to claim he defeated what he calls the American regime change and democratization campaign, and that Russia is back as a major power [but] we’ll have to see how the announcement translates into actual facts and whether or not an air campaign that has brutalized Syrian civilians is truly over.”

Cost of Operation

Putin spoke at length about the Syria operation on March 17. A crowd of 700 military personnel assembled in an extravagant Kremlin hall for an award ceremony. Putin estimated the cost of his intervention in Syria at $480 million, or about $2.9 million a day. Independent estimates provided by IHS senior analyst Ben Moores place the cost higher, at about $4 million per day.

As quickly as Russia’s planes departed Syria, they can return. The infrastructure for a rapid redeployment has been maintained, and Putin said “if necessary, literally within a few hours, Russia can build up its contingent in the region to a size proportionate to the situation developing there and use the entire arsenal of capabilities at our disposal.”

Russia's Syrian operation began with about 30 fixed-wing aircraft and 16 helicopters conducting around 20 sorties per day. After a mid-October surge, Russia was operating up to 60 aircraft in Syria, conducting around 60 sorties a day, increasing to more than 100 daily missions in November. The numbers show an impressive improvement to Russian operational tempo.

Considering the resources expended, Russia’s operation in Syria has been labeled by many analysts to have been a great success for Putin. He entered the conflict with clear goals and significantly altered the facts on the ground by saving Assad from an imminent defeat. He also bolstered Russia's air base in Latakia and a naval facility in the port of Tartus. By withdrawing when he did, Putin looked victorious, but he also is leaving all options on the table.

Mission Accomplished

The timing of Russia’s withdrawal also betrayed Moscow’s true motives: its campaign in Syria was primarily intended to save the Assad regime from collapse, thereby ensuring Russian influence over the Syrian regime and winning a seat at the table equal in standing to that of the United States.

“The Russian intervention has indeed changed the trajectory of the war, and allowed Assad to consolidate control over most of Western Syria,” said Vladimir Frolov, a Russian foreign affairs expert. It also weakened moderate opposition forces, taking the momentum from them. But it did not result in the decisive victory Assad might have hoped for. Instead, “Putin helped Assad fight the war to a standstill and drag the parties to the negotiating table,” Frolov said.

Putin saw more success in pursuit of a second, more abstract objective. By intervening in Syria, the Russian president hoped to end his diplomatic isolation vis-à-vis the United States. He succeeded. The United States is again engaging Russia on Moscow’s favored terms – the illusion that is it's one of two superpowers capable of ending major world crises, Frolov said.

Mark Galeotti, an expert in the Russian military at New York University, said that Putin chose the perfect moment to begin scaling back his operation. “The longer you stay, the greater chance that something goes wrong. And Putin likes to make a splash, so the first real day of non-contact talks in Geneva was an obvious day to announce a withdrawal.”

“Putin took a risk with the intervention, and he once again demonstrated the luck of the devil. Nothing went badly wrong, and the intervention did what it needed to do. He seized a good moment to cash in his chips. But, as ever with Putin, it wasn’t the product of grand strategy, it was a series of improvisations with a sense of what he wanted. He reached the stage where it seemed like the right time to pull out,” Galeotti said.

Email: mbodner@defensenews.com

Twitter: @mattb0401
 

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http://www.foxnews.com/world/2016/03/19/militants-kill-13-policemen-in-egypts-northern-sinai.html

TERRORISM

Militants kill 13 policemen in Egypt's northern Sinai

Published March 19, 2016
· Associated Press

EL-ARISH, Egypt – Militants killed 13 Egyptian policemen in an attack Saturday on a checkpoint south of northern Sinai's provincial capital of el-Arish, the Egyptian Interior Ministry said.

A Sinai-based Islamic State affiliate has claimed responsibility for the attack, according to a statement circulated on social media. The Associated Press could not independently verify theclaim.

The local IS affiliate has been targeting Egyptian security forces in Sinai and claimed the downing of a Russian airliner last October that killed 224 people.

Egypt has been hit with a wave of suicide bombings and militant attacks that intensified after the military's ouster of Islamist President Mohammed Morsi in 2013. The local Islamic State affiliate has claimed responsibility for most of the attacks.

While the attacks have largely been carried out in northern Sinai, explosions have also hit areas on the mainland including Cairo, the capital.
 

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http://www.newsweek.com/putin-liberator-tsar-kurds-438453

Opinion

Will Putin Be the 'Liberator Tsar' of the Kurds?

By Michael A. Reynolds On 3/20/16 at 5:01 AM

Russia's President Vladimir Putin takes part in talks with members of the Turkish delegation during his visit to Ankara. Putin is the latest in a long line of Russian leaders with close ties to the Kurdish independence movement.

Mikhail Klimentyev/RIA Novosti/Kremlin/Reuters

When Turkey downed a Russian jet last November, it did so in the hopes of containing Russian efforts in Syria. Instead, it may have triggered a process that is putting Vladimir Putin in the driver’s seat in redrawing the borders of the Middle East, including Turkey’s.

After the incident, Putin vowed that Turkey’s leaders would come to rue their action and promised to retaliate with more than boycotts of Turkish tomatoes and other economic measures. “We know what we need to do,” Putin intoned ominously.

Putin has been delivering on his word. As part of his revenge, Putin has been expanding ties to Kurdish groups in Turkey, Iraq, and Syria. In December of last year, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov personally and publicly welcomed to Moscow Turkey’s leading Kurdish politician Selahattin Demirtas, the co-chairman of Turkey’s pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP). During his visit, Demirtas proceeded to open a representative office for his party in Russia’s capital. In February, the Syrian Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD) opened its first foreign office in Moscow, a major step forward in the group’s campaign for international legitimacy. Russia has been a consistent advocate on behalf of the Kurds at the Geneva peace talks.

Russian support has not been limited to diplomacy and public relations. In January, Lavrov confirmed that Russia has been delivering arms to the Kurdistan Regional Government in Iraq. Multiple sources report that Russia has been supplying weapons to Syrian Kurds.

These moves by Russia have set off alarms in Ankara, and with good reason. Both the HDP and Syria’s PYD are offshoots of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which for over three decades has been waging an armed struggle against the Turkish Republic in the name of Kurdish self-determination. After a two-year lull, the PKK last July resumed its insurrection, putting Turkey in a state of virtual civil war as PKK militants hole up in cities throughout Turkey’s heavily Kurdish southeast and declare “self-rule.”

As its name suggests, the PKK was founded during the Cold War and was inspired by a variant of Marxism-Leninism. Its ideological orientation, collaboration with the Soviet Union, and profligate use of terror tactics including suicide bombing alienated public opinion in the West and led the U.S. State Department and the European Parliament to label it as a terrorist organization.

In the past year and a half, however, the PKK’s image has changed dramatically. The group and its subsidiaries have revealed themselves to be the most effective forces in the fight against the Islamic state and their secular nationalism offers a sharp contrast to the sectarianism of the Islamic state and its main foe, the Shiite Islamic Republic of Iran.

This, plus increased familiarity with the Kurds’ sorrowful modern history, have won the PKK considerable sympathy. U.S. military advisors now work closely with the PYD’s armed units and cite the fiction that the PYD is separate from the PKK in order to get around the official terrorist designation. Experts and lobbyists in Washington and European capitals call for lifting that designation altogether.

For Turkish officials this is a nightmare, as it would hand to the PKK the most precious thing any insurgency can gain—international legitimacy—and encourage it to persist in its violent campaign to achieve self-rule and, eventually, a state of its own.

Yet the fact is, with Russia back playing an active role in the Middle East and in a position of advantage in the war in Syria, the PKK does not need the West. Indeed, the interests of the PKK and Vladimir Putin share a synergy. By working with the Kurds, Moscow can prosecute the war against ISIS, punish Turkey, and retain influence in Syria and beyond. For its part, the PKK receives a booster that can support it not just with arms, advising, and air support, but also a U.N. Security Council member that can offer invaluable backing.

Little here should surprise. Russia happens to be the Kurds’ oldest great power patron. Russian leaders from Catherine the Great onward have grasped the importance of the Kurds to the politics just south of Russia’s borders. Tsarist armies employed Kurdish irregulars in their wars with the Ottoman Turks and Persians while Tsarist diplomats and spies encouraged Kurdish tribes to unite and rebel against their imperial overlords. On the eve of World War I, St. Petersburg was the world’s center of Kurdology, and some Kurdish leaders saw the Russian empire as their best hope for development and political independence. Bolshevik Russia in 1923 created the first ethnic Kurdish political entity, so-called Red Kurdistan, in the Caucasus, as an instrument to export revolution through the Middle East via the Kurds.

Stalin took this one step further in 1946 when, upon ordering Soviet troops to withdraw from northern Iran he oversaw the creation of the Kurdish “Mahabad Republic” there. Although the Mahabad Republic collapsed just a year later after President Truman gave cover to the Shah of Iran to crush it, it marked the first nominal Kurdish nation-state. Kurdish activists celebrate it to this today, not least because the president of the Mahabad Republic was Mustafa Barzani, the father of the current head of Iraq’s Kurdistan Regional government, Masoud Barzani.

Some of the Soviet Union’s leading spymasters, such as Pavel Sudoplatov and Yevgeny Primakov, found the “Kurdish card” a useful instrument to destabilize Middle Eastern governments seen as too pro-Western, particularly Turkey. The PKK received Soviet support precisely for this purpose.

Notably, Moscow did not cut its ties to the PKK after the dissolution of the Soviet Union. The PKK in the 1990s continued to operate a representative office and even a “recreational-educational” camp in Russia. The Russian state had over 200 years of experience dealing with Kurds, and maintaining that relationship was a relatively cheap way to preserve leverage in the Middle East. In particular, Russia’s threat to play the Kurdish card provided a deterrent of sorts against potential Turkish support for Muslim separatists in Chechnya and elsewhere inside the Russian Federation.

Putin’s multi-faceted Kurdish gambit thus represents not a radical departure in Russian foreign policy but a well-worn tradition that affords him considerable flexibility in projecting Russian influence and confounding Russia’s foes. Putin’s announcement of a drawdown of forces from Syria hardly translates into a withdrawal of Russian influence from the Middle East.

The Kurds today—in Iraq, in Syria, in Turkey, and even in Iran—are stronger and more important actors in the Middle East than they have ever been in modern history. A bid to establish an independent Kurdish state is ever more plausible. Success in achieving self-determination, however, rarely comes without assistance from an outside power. And unlike America, whose relationship with NATO ally Turkey blocks it from embracing full-fledged Kurdish statehood, Russia is relatively free to back the idea of a sovereign independent Kurdistan.

Putin, in short, is in a unique position to bring Russia’s centuries-long relationship with the Kurds to a logical culmination and deal a devastating blow to Turkey in the process. Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu both profess an admiration for Ottoman Sultan Abdulhamid II. They would do well to remember that it was during Abdulhamid II’s reign that Russian arms and diplomacy secured Bulgarian, Romanian, and Serbian independence. Kurdistan perhaps awaits its own liberator tsar.

Michael A. Reynolds is associate professor of Near Eastern Studies at Princeton University. He is the author of Shattering Empires: The Clash and Collapse of the Ottoman and Russian Empires.
 

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http://www.ibtimes.com/south-korea-...t-attack-north-korea-case-contingency-2339692

World

South Korea Forms ‘Spartan 3000’ Unit To Attack North Korea In Case Of Contingency

By Sneha Shankar @SnehaShankar30 On 03/20/16 AT 1:22 AM

South Korea formed a military contingent of 3,000 troops that would be aimed at attacking key North Korean facilities in case of a contingency. In this photo, U.S. soldiers of the 13th Marine Expeditionary Unit are seen participating in an exercise entitled 'Ssang Yong', near South Korea's southeastern port city of Pohang, on March 15, 2016. Photo: Getty Images/AFP/Ed Jones

The South Korean Marine Corps has formed a new mobile unit assigned to attack North Korea in case of contingency, a Seoul military official told Yonhap Sunday. The regiment, “Spartan 3000,” consists of 3,000 troops and was launched in the southeastern coastal city of Pohang, the report said.

The troops will be on standby to be deployed to all the parts of the Korean peninsula within a day and will be trained to destroy important North Korean military facilities. During other times the unit will be deployed to handle emergency situations and disasters, Yonhap reported.


“In the past, the battalion-level unit took 24 hours to be deployed across the Korean Peninsula, while the regimental-level unit took 48 hours,” the military official said, according to Yonhap, adding: “However, the new unit will be able to operate within 24 hours even at the regimental level.”

The operational skills of the unit were tested during the largest joint annual drills between South Korea and the U.S. The drills were slammed by North Korea, which threatened to attack the U.S. and South Korea over it and called them a provocation.

As retaliation, Pyongyang has also been conducting similar military drills aimed at destroying key South Korean facilities.

On Sunday, North Korean media agency KCNA said that Kim Jong Un guided landing and anti-landing exercises of the Korean People’s Army (KPA). The report added that the drill involved “surface ships and sharpshooters of the East Sea Fleet” of the country’s navy, “pursuit planes” of KPA Air and Anti-Air Force, artillery sub-units and some other forces of the 108th Motorized Infantry Division of the KPA.

Kim expressed satisfaction over the drills and said: “Any enemy group will never land in seashore of the country as our reliable artillerymen stand guard in full readiness to wipe out the aggressors,” KCNA Watch reported, citing the North Korean news agency. Kim also called for the training to be “intensified” among the units and sub-units of the Korean army according to the tactics set for coastal defense.

The latest drills from Seoul and Pyongyang follow North Korea’s rocket launch, nuclear test, and missile tests that have been slammed by the international community. The U.S., South Korea and the United Nations Security Council slapped sanctions against North Korea over the missile tests and its nuclear advancements even as Kim called for more nuclear weapons.
 
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Housecarl

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http://www.the-american-interest.com/2016/03/18/israel-and-the-kurds-love-by-proxy/

Published on: March 18, 2016
Middle East

Israel and the Kurds: Love by Proxy
Ofra Bengio

The asymmetrical but rewarding relationship between two Middle East minority nations.

Over the past few years, Israeli politicians—from Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu to President Shimon Peres to Foreign Minister Avigdor Liberman—have been publicly advocating the establishment of a Kurdish state. Most recent to weigh in is Justice Minister Ayelet Shaked, who called this past January for the formation of an independent Kurdistan and urged enhanced policy cooperation between Israel and the Kurds.

Clearly, the upheavals in the region and the realization that the Kurds are the most effective military power against the onslaught of the Islamic State triggered these calls. But Israelis have long been interested in the Kurds as junior partners in Ben-Gurion’s hallowed peripheral strategy, which considered any competitor or adversary of the Arabs an objective ally of the Jewish state, whether sub-state groups like the Kurds or nations such as Turkey, Iran (in earlier times and perhaps again in the future), and Ethiopia. But even beyond this general motive lies layers of relationships between the Jewish and Kurdish people that go back many centuries. To understand how the future may unfold, grasping at least the recent past must serve as prelude.1

The ties between Israel and the Kurds are complex and shrouded in mystery. Relations are always more complex when they are asymmetrical, as in this case, where they are between a state and non-state actors. Note that we must say actors, plural, because Israel has to deal separately with four Kurdish players in four countries that host Kurdish communities and political organizations: Turkey, Iran, Iraq, and Syria. Complicating the picture still further is the fact that each of the four groups has a different political agenda, a different approach toward Israel, and different geostrategic calculations within its respective state (or what’s left of two of them) and in the region as a whole. Moreover, Israel and the Kurds do not have common borders, nor do they always have common enemies that can bring them together. Lastly, while Israeli politicians appear eager to go public with their desire for better relations, Kurdish politicians for the most part seek low-keyed relations in the shadows.

Historically, the Israeli government’s interlocutors have been the Kurds of Iraq, with whom it began secret relations in the mid-1960s that have continued intermittently ever since. For most of the part these ties were kept secret, but much has been leaked and published about the critical period of 1965–75. The relations of that period have left scars on both sides.

Israel was frustrated by the fact that the Kurdish guerrillas did not engage the Iraqi army during the October 1973 (Yom Kippur) war. It was the Kurds’ turn to be annoyed in 1975, when Israel stopped its aid after the Algiers Agreement. The two parties have had their own convincing explanations. The Kurds maintained that they feared being marked as traitors for helping Israel, and the Israelis explained that they could not continue their support due to the objections of the Iranian government of the day and the U.S. government. Despite this mutual disillusionment, secret relations were revived after the 1991 Gulf War and boosted after the 2003 Iraq War, reaching a peak in the past few years when, as a result of the region’s upheavals, both sides acknowledged their growing mutual need.

The Kurdistan Regional Government in Iraq (KRG) needs Israel at this critical time for several reasons. Kurdish leaders believe that Israel can be their best lobby in the West for the project of a Kurdish state. Proof came from President Peres who, during his June 2014 meeting with President Barack Obama, raised the idea of Kurdish independence. Strong support from Jewish and Israeli opinion leaders are also of great importance. However, as the Kurdish leadership views it, lobbying behind the scenes was one thing and publicizing it was another.

The Kurds’ second important goal was to acquire weapons and training, which Israel has reportedly been providing the KRG since even before its military encounters with the Islamic State. On the level of economic strategy, Israel granted critical support to the KRG by buying Kurdish oil in 2015, when no other country was willing to do so because of Baghdad’s threat to sue. KRG Minister of Natural Resources Ashti Hawrami even admitted to the arrangement, saying that to avoid detection Kurdish oil was often funneled through Israel. Iraq’s Oil Minister, Husayn Shahristani, repeatedly inquired as to the nature of the KRG’s dealings with Israel and the Mossad, to which KRG Prime Minister Nechirvan Barzani said he wanted to reply: “Are you the Minister of Oil or of Intelligence?”

As for Israel, its interest in the Kurds stems from two sources. The first is the persistent geopolitical consideration, noted in passing above, of “peripheral alliances.” The other is the longstanding affinity between two small nations that failed to achieve regional legitimacy for a very long time. In addition, the very misnamed Arab Spring and the rise of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria have recently added other important considerations.

First, the tectonic changes that have taken place in Iraq and Syria, and Kurdish feats on the battleground, have proven that the Kurds are a formidable barrier against dangerous anti-Israeli forces emanating from both Sunni and Shi‘a Islamist radicals. The Kurds’ prowess has complicated U.S. policy, as U.S. support for Syrian Kurds has put it at sixes and sevens with Turkey, a NATO ally. Israel, at least, does not suffer from this problem; indeed, better relations with the Kurds serves as leverage in its relations with Turkey, which are mixed at best.

The second consideration is the intelligence dossier. In the past, Israel has used Iraqi Kurdistan as a base from which to obtain intelligence on Iraq. After the Islamic Republic came to power in Iran in 1979, Iraqi Kurdistan also served as a base for Israeli intelligence collection on the Islamic regime. In January 2012 the French newspaper Le Figaro claimed that Israeli intelligence agents were recruiting and training Iranian dissidents in clandestine bases located in Iraq’s Kurdish region. A year later The Washington Post disclosed that Turkey had revealed to Iranian intelligence a network of Israeli spies working in Iran, including ten people believed to be Kurds who reportedly met with Mossad members in Turkey. This precarious relationship between Israel and Turkey—along with the risks and costs to both sides—persists today.

While the upheavals in the region have increased the mutual interests between Israel and the Kurds, they have not lessened the Kurds’ desire to keep relations behind the scenes as much as possible. Being a state in embryo surrounded by Arab and Muslim countries makes the KRG very cautious about publicizing anything that has to do with Israel. This is especially true at this critical time, when it is looking for regional support for its project of establishing a Kurdish state, or short of that trying to preempt negative reactions to it. The KRG is especially wary of Iran, which is opposed to the establishment of a Kurdish state. Accordingly, it is anxious not to be seen as allied with Israel, which would certainly antagonize Tehran.

In addition, the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), a historical ally of Israel and the major power on the ground nowadays, has to take into consideration the position of its partners in the KRG, such as the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) or Gorran, which are allied with Iran and are therefore opposed to relations with Israel. At the same time the KRG seeks to buy the goodwill of Sunni Arab countries that used to blame the Kurds for attempting to establish a “second Israel.” Against the background of Sunni-Shi‘a conflicts in the region, these states have become more amenable to the idea of a Sunni Kurdish entity. KRG President Mas‘ud Barzani has said that regional attitudes have shifted markedly of late: “It has been a dramatic change. Countries that had long been against the move were being swayed by the claim that sovereignty within the current borders of the Kurdish regional government could instead bring clarity.” He further emphasized that “the existing culture in Iraq is not one of co-existence.” Interestingly, however, the Palestinians—who could have been the greatest supporters of Kurdish independence since they fight for their own—have come out loudly against the Kurds. PLO Secretary General Saeb Arekat recently declared: “Kurdish independence would be a poisoned sword against the Arabs.”

In addition to its political reasons not to identify itself with Israel, the KRG has weighty economic ones, especially in this period of severe economic crisis. The KRG’s economic partners are Arab and Muslim countries whose support dwarfs anything Israel can offer. However, in spite of the bad blood between Ankara and Jerusalem, there is a possibility of triangular relations with Turkey and Israel. As surprising as it might seem, the KRG is interested in the normalization of relations between the two, among other reasons to secure the shipment of Kurdish oil to Israel via Turkey.

How does the KRG intend to solve these dilemmas? One way is to ignore Israeli statements of support altogether. While the Kurdish rank and file usually greet such statements enthusiastically, they are met with dead silence from politicians. This stance helps Kurdish politicians: On the one hand they benefit from strong Israeli support for their cause, and on the other they keep enough distance to protect themselves from negative reactions from their allies. Interestingly, just three days after Shaked’s announcement President Barzani emphasized the Kurds’ drive for independence, noting that the international community had started to accept that Iraq and Syria would never again be unified.

To compensate for the distance it keeps from Israel, however, the KRG sends positive messages vis-à-vis the Jews and Jewish culture. Thus, instead of opening an Israeli representation office in the normal diplomatic manner, in October 2015 the KRG announced the opening of a Jewish representation office at the Ministry of Endowments (awqaf) and Religious Affairs. This was a symbolical move since there are few if any Jews in Kurdistan. Similarly, the KRG has invited Israeli rabbis to visit Kurdistan and meet officials there. From time to time it also calls on Jews to return to Kurdistan, while Israeli Jews of Kurdish origin are welcomed in the KRG. This past February, Sherzad Omar Mamsani, the Jewish representative at the Ministry of Endowments and Religious Affairs, made a well-publicized visit to Israel, where he meet with Knesset members and other Israeli officials. Was it a trial balloon, a sign that the KRG has overcome its fear of open relations? Time will tell.

Whatever the case, its position allows the KRG to express genuine sympathy for Jews; to get support from American Jews who have been lobbying for the Kurds in the corridors of power for a long time; to appear as a protector of minorities; and to disguise its real political and strategic ties with Israel. At the same time, this pro-Jewish attitude helps shield the KRG from its detractors since none of them, not even Iran, wishes to appear anti-Semitic by criticizing the Kurds on these grounds.

At the same time, the KRG seeks to stop anti-Semitic and anti-Israeli propaganda. For example, in 2009, when several Muslim leaders in the Kurdistan region took to the pulpit to denounce Israeli actions in the Gaza Strip and call for the destruction of the Israeli state and the death of the Jews, the KRG banned these imams from preaching.

Unlike with the KRG, Israeli relations with the Kurdish political organizations of the other states were either negative or nonexistent until recently. Relations with the Turkish Partiya Karkeren Kurdistan (PKK), for example, were tense because it had strong relations with Israel’s enemies—the Syrian regime and the Palestinian Liberation organization (PLO)—during the 1980s and 1990s, while Israel had strong ties with Turkey. This state of affairs began to change somewhat following the deterioration of relations between Jerusalem and Ankara as a result of the Mavi Marmara affair in 2010 and the concurrent peace process between the PKK and the Turkish government. Accordingly, Israel and the PKK put out feelers about a possible rapprochement; however, nothing concrete has materialized.

As for the Kurds of Syria, their role as a main bulwark against the Islamic State following the upheavals in that country was not lost on Israel. The main organizations there are the Partiya Yekitiya Democrat (PYD), which is an offshoot of the PKK, and the Yekeniyen Parastina Gel (YPG) and the Yekeniyen Parastina Jin (YPJ), which are respectively the male and female guerilla fighters on the ground. Here, too, the two parties have recently started to put out feelers to explore the possibility of establishing ties. The Kurds have been interested in acquiring weapons, while Israel has sent humanitarian aid to and reportedly gathered intelligence from the Kurds.

Israel has been very cautious because it needs to tread a fine line between its relations with the KRG and those with its rivals, the PKK and PYD. In addition, Jerusalem had to take into account the fact that the PYD is still linked to the Assad regime; that it had developed strong ties with Russia while the United States was reluctant to grant it outright support; and that Turkey had labeled it a terrorist organization like the PKK. However, Israel’s stance may change in response to the Syrian Kurds’ March 17 declaration that they intend to create a federal region across the border from Turkey. The Kurds’ move may encourage Israel to develop more significant ties with this emerging entity.

On the face of it, relations with the Iranian Kurdish organizations should not have posed any dilemma for Israel, since Iran has vowed to eliminate it and has been leading a proxy war against it on several fronts. The difficulty, however, lies in the fragmentation of the Iranian Kurdish parties. Four major parties compete with each other: the two oldest parties, the Kurdistan Democratic Party of Iran (KDPI), which itself has two branches, and Komala; Parti Azadi Kurdistan (PAK), which was established in 1991; and a younger one called Partiya Jiyana Azad a Kurdistane (PJAK), which was established in 2004 and is considered an offshoot of the PKK. These parties, which have their bases in the KRG, do not have direct ties with Kurds in Iran, where only clandestine action is possible. Their basis of support internally is very weak.

On the one hand, the KRG periodically puts the brakes on the activities of these parties because it does not want to antagonize Iran. On the other, the United States initiated the talks with Iran that led to what a Kurdish observer referred to as carte blanche for the Iranian regime “to undertake strict oppressive measures against Kurdish activists, to an extent that even independent social campaigners are not tolerated.” This narrows further Israel’s small margin for engagement with the Kurdish parties of Iran. It maintained certain ties with PJAK, but they were abruptly cut in 2013, possibly at the behest of the United States, which was eager to make a deal with Iran. Even though Israel and the Iranian Kurdish organizations may have a common interest in weakening the Islamic regime, the latter’s growing power since the nuclear deal have frustrated such a partnership. All of these developments have left the KRG as Israel’s main partner among the Kurds.

To sum up, there are many kinds of asymmetries in contemporary Kurdish-Israeli relations, one of which is that Israel cannot expect Kurds to reciprocate Israeli friendship in public. The KRG believes the acknowledgement of open relations with Israel would jeopardize the eventual establishment of a Kurdish state. The KRG and for that matter Kurds in all parts of Kurdistan will be happy to receive whatever support the Jewish state can offer, but on condition that it does not carry any trademark reading “made in Israel.”

The late Kurdish leader Mullah Mustafa Barzani used to say that the very fact that the Kurds exist as a nation on the ground helps to ease the pressure on Israel. This is indeed the main benefit for Israel from a pro-Kurdish stance, and in the choice between the Islamic State and a Kurdish state, Israel’s interest certainly lie with the latter. As the Middle East faces an unpredictable future, this precarious but mutually rewarding relationship will continue.


1For a historical background see Eric Brauer, The Jews of Kurdistan (Wayne State University Press, 1993); Mordechai Zaken, Jewish Subjects and Their Tribal Chieftains in Kurdistan: A Study in Survival (Brill, 2007); Ora Shwartz-Be’eri, The Jews of Kurdistan: Daily Life, Customs, Arts and Crafts (The Israel Museum, Jerusalem, 2000). For a very interesting memoir see Ariel Sabar, My Father’s Paradise: A Son’s Search for his Jewish Past in Kurdish Iraq (Algonquin Books, 2008).

Ofra Bengio is a senior research associate at the Moshe Dayan Center. She is author of The Kurds of Iraq: Building a State within a State and editor of The Kurds: Nation-building in a Fragmented Homeland.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Hummm......Add this to talks of the US looking at pre-positioning equipment in Vietnam, the new US-Philippines defense agreement and moves by Japan and what's evolving looks a lot like SEATO of old....

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.eurasiareview.com/200320...a-must-operate-closely-with-vietnam-analysis/

Chinese Muscle-Flexing In South China Sea: India Must Operate Closely With Vietnam – Analysis

By South Asia Monitor March 20, 2016
By Maj. Gen. P. K. Chakravorty (Retd.)*

The South China Sea has become an important concern for China, Taiwan, Vietnam, Malaysia, Philippines and Brunei. China claims the entire South China Sea and unilaterally occupied the Paracel islands from the erstwhile South Vietnamese regime in 1974. Ever since, China has been claiming the entire group of Spratly islands which are in the Southern portion of the region as its own. During the last two years, China has been focussing on improving its military capability in these islands. This is being done with the aim of controlling the entire area so as to ensure that the navigation and the air-space are fully under Chinese domination. It is important to view what the Chinese have done, so as to understand the military implications that emerge from it.

All countries involved have been seeking reclamation of lands in the South China Sea. China initiated the process by building a full-fledged air base in the Woody Islands which forms a part of the Paracel Group of islands. In 2003 Malaysia reclaimed land in Swallow Reef enabling a runway 1368 metres in length to be constructed which enables cargo, surveillance and fighter aircrafts to operate. Vietnam followed in quick succession by constructing a runway of 550 metres length in Big Spratly Islands which are being utilised by cargo and surveillance aircraft. The year 2006 saw Taiwan construct a runway 1195 metres in length at Itu Iba island capable of handling cargo, surveillance and fighter aircraft. Philippines constructed a 1400 metres airfield at Thitu Island in 2014 capable of handling Cargo, Surveillance and Fighter aircraft.

In recent months, China’s reclamation of islands has grown dramatically. It has reclaimed 2900 acres of landmass across a string of islands in the Spratly Group. The construction is focussed on Gaven Reef, Johnson South Reef, Fiery Cross Reef and Hughes Reef. The islands are big enough to erect buildings, house equipment and have a big runway on Fiery Cross Reef. At some sites, China has excavated deep channels and has built new berthing areas to allow access for larger ships that could be used to assert territorial claims. It is reported by the Wall Street Journal in May 2015 that China has placed two mobile artillery units on Johnson Reef.

In February 2016, China deployed two batteries of HQ 9 Surface to Air Missile each ranging about 160 nautical miles, on Woody Islands in the Paracels, thereby giving the capability to intercept the aircraft flying over this area.

The Chinese are extremely clear about their maritime territorial claims. With Sasha in the Paracel islands already developed in 2012as a headquarters and a military base for the entire region, China would like to develop the reefs as bases in the Spratly Group of islands to enable it to undertake force projection in the area. President Xi Jinping has been constantly referring to the Chinese dream. The Chinese dream comprises primarily of two ingredients strength and wealth. Both these characteristics find their manifestations in the South China Sea. The area has fish, oil and other minerals. Optimised exploitation of these resources will enable China to enhance its Comprehensive National Power.

As a dominant military power that China is, it realises the strategic value of islands and would use these gainfully in controlling shipping as also countering any naval posturing by the aircraft battle groups of the United States.

The ASEAN states have been told by China not to raise the issues in international forums and talk to China directly. China claims sovereignty over the area and any shipping through these areas must not enter the territorial limits of 12 nautical miles from these islands. The Defence Secretary of the United States Mr Ashton Carter has stated that the military will fly, sail and operate wherever permitted by international law.

However, it remains unclear if the United States has ever actually flown or navigated within the territorial waters resulting in a response from Beijing. Tensions did escalate when a US warship did approach close to the islands but the matter was defused.

Of course, Philippines have taken the dispute to an arbitral tribunal in The Hague. The case was filed in 2013 in the Permanent Court of Arbitration, asserting its rights to exploit the 200 nautical mile Exclusive Economic Zone that extends from the archipelago into the South China Sea. They brought their claim under the United Nations Convention on Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).

China claimed that being issues of sovereignty, the tribunal had no jurisdiction. The Tribunal has held that it has jurisdiction over key issues in the dispute. This has put China in a bind. China has stated that the judgement was null and void and any future judgements would have no effect. It would be hard to imagine that China would completely ignore any future judgement.

International pressure to comply on any future judgement will be great. The United States has welcomed the decision and Germany has encouraged China to settle maritime claims in international courts. Well there is no cause for celebration as yet. The Tribunal has reserved judgement in seven of the 14 claims. It is an interesting case to watch and results may see others joining the fray. China does not give up easily and would resist any attempts to disturb its claims. The new deployment of the Surface to Air Missiles indicates Chinese assertiveness on the subject.

As the Chinese expand their presence in the South China Sea, the question is how would this maritime and territorial expansion expected to hit the Indian interests?

India’s Oil and Natural Gas Commission Videsh Limited (OVL) has been present in Vietnam for a reasonable period. They were involved in a major offshore oil and natural gas exploration in block 06.1, located 370 km South East of Vung Tau with an area of 955 sq km. The exploration license was acquired in 1988 and commercial production began in 2003. Later in 2006 OVL acquired two more blocks in the South China Sea for oil exploration. These were Blocks 127 and 128. Drilling in block 127 did not reveal any hydro carbons and OVL decided to return both these locations back to Vietnam. However Vietnam persuaded OVL to continue drilling in Block 128 despite opposition from the Chinese explicitly stating that the area of Block 128 was within Vietnamese waters.

On July 22, 2011, INS Airavat an Indian naval amphibious assault ship was on a friendly visit to Vietnam. The ship was repeatedly contacted at a distance of 45 nautical miles from the Vietnamese coast on an open radio channel by a vessel identifying itself as Chinese Navy which warned the Indian ship that she was entering Chinese waters. Indian Navy clarified that no ship or aircraft was visible from INS Airavat and the ship moved on without paying any heed to the cautionary warning. India’s position was clarified by our Defence Minister who stated that ships of the Indian Navy would continue to go to South China Sea for training and our merchant ships would undertake trade. Further India clearly stated that she supported freedom of navigation in international waters including the South China Sea.

The agreement signed between India and Vietnam was met with stiff opposition from China who claimed that no exploration could be undertaken in areas over which China has sovereign rights. The Government of India correctly responded by stating that while China had concerns but India was going by the agreement signed with Vietnam. The Chinese claim was rejected by both India and Vietnam. As per the UN the area of exploration belongs to Vietnam.

India has firmly stated that ONGC will continue to explore oil in the South China Sea. Further India has clarified that the entire Indian Ocean region stretching from East African coast to South China Sea remains crucial to its foreign trade, energy and national security. Vietnam has remained steadfast on the issue and in July 2012 the National Assembly of Vietnam passed a law demarcating Vietnamese sea borders to include the Paracel and Spratly islands.

The Vietnamese Prime Minister visited India in October 2014 and offered five additional oil blocks to India for exploration. India agreed to undertake exploration of two of these blocks. China has commented adversely on this aspect and Chinese press in September 2015 has advised India not to undertake drilling in the South China Sea. US President Barrack Obama visited India in January 2015. The joint statement signed between the US President and the Indian President mentions freedom of navigation in international waters. While it is nice to make statements there is a need for India to protect its assets in the event of Chinese aggressiveness.

Indian Navy and Indian Air Force need to modernise and operate closely with the Vietnamese forces to combat an adverse situation. There is a need for both countries to strategically cooperate against any adverse situations created by the Chinese. Modernisation of our Armed Forces to operate beyond the Straits of Malacca into the South China Sea is a necessity.

*Maj. Gen. P. K. Chakravorty (Retd.) is former Additional Director General Artillery. He can be reached at: editor@spsindia.in
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.asiasentinel.com/politics/japan-shinzo-abe-influence-asean/

Japan PM Abe’s Influence Grows Across ASEAN

Posted on March 18, 2016
By Phuong Nguyen

Tokyo’s influence grows steadfastly

In Southeast Asia, Japan can be said to enjoy unrivaled popularity. According to the 2015 Pew Global Attitudes survey, an average of about 80 percent of respondents surveyed across four Southeast Asian countries said they hold a favorable view of Japan.

While China’s expanding military footprint in the disputed South China Sea has a headline-grabbing impact, Japan’s influence in this critical region is felt more steadfastly, but increasingly so, in recent years.

Since Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was reelected in 2012, his government has pursued an active policy of forging closer security cooperation with many countries in Southeast Asia, most visibly those locked in territorial disputes with China in the South China Sea such as the Philippines and Vietnam, but also with smaller countries such as Laos and Timor-Leste.

To put it into a broader context, Abe hopes to forge a geopolitical identity for Japan in Southeast Asia on the foundation of its already established—and still growing—economic presence there.
At stake for Tokyo (and of interest to strategic thinkers in the United States) is the question of what the regional order in the Asia Pacific will look like in the coming decades. Will it rest on the US alliance system that was built during the Cold War, at the same time that old US alliances and new partnerships continue to evolve?

Japan would be at the core of such a system, but much depends on whether future US administrations can sustain their attention toward Asia and whether US economic leadership will still win the day in the Asia Pacific decades from now.

Or will it be a regional order centered on China, which has been spending significant energy and resources to piece together an agenda for regional cooperation to its liking? Tokyo has reasons to be wary of this outlook given its widening differences with Beijing on territorial disputes and unresolved historical issues, as well as growing regional anxiety over China’s activities in the South China Sea and naval ambitions elsewhere in the region.

Or might it revolve around ASEAN, a relatively loose grouping made up of 10 Southeast Asian countries intent on devising an economic identity for itself and appealing to all major external powers in hopes that they will all come and play by the rules? But in order to play that role effectively, ASEAN members need to prosper economically and be able to pull their respective strategic weight.

As a result, at the same time that Japan has been bolstering its defense cooperation with the United States, Tokyo has worked relentlessly to help Southeast Asia become both a more interconnected region and a growth driver in the global economy. Japan’s revitalized agenda toward Southeast Asia in recent years was largely driven by its desire to build a coalition of like-minded partners to respond to Beijing’s continuing aggression in the East and South China Seas. But Japan’s interest in the region expands beyond simply lending maritime security assistance to claimant countries such as Vietnam and the Philippines.

With China’s recently announced “One Belt One Road” initiative capturing the imagination of many, few realized Japan had formulated and begun to invest in realizing its vision for infrastructure connectivity across Southeast Asia as early as the 1990s. This vision takes the form of three initiatives. Two are overland: the well-known East-West Economic Corridor that would run from the port of Mawlamyaing in southeastern Myanmar through Thailand and Laos to the port of Danang in central Vietnam and the Southern Economic Corridor that would connect Bangkok to Ho Chi Minh City and could potentially extend to the port of Dawei in southern Myanmar. The third initiative is the Maritime ASEAN Economic Corridor that would consolidate port development, marine economic development, and information, communications, and technological networks connecting Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Singapore.

Japan’s infrastructure push has taken on added momentum, as Southeast Asian countries look for the hard and soft infrastructure to be the backbone of regional integration under the ASEAN Economic Community, which took effect at the end of 2015, and to move up the value chain.

Of these, work has been completed on a large chunk of the East-West Economic Corridor, the infrastructure components of which regional governments plan to tap into to attract investment in energy, tourism, and agribusiness. This initiative has been described—at first by the Japanese private sector—as a pathway for Japan to “connect the Pacific and Indian oceans by land.” The Southeast Asia region is Japan’s number one investment destination in Asia (Japan is the second-largest investor in ASEAN, after the European Union), and ASEAN is currently Japan’s second-largest trading partner, after China.

From where Japan sits, the ability to reach even the westernmost part of Southeast Asia and gain access to the Indian Ocean, through which most of its energy imports come, is invaluable.

A more recent and pressing priority for Japan has been stepping up joint exercises with and capacity building for regional countries with an interest in maritime security and stability in the South China Sea, including Indonesia, the Philippines, and Vietnam. In just a short time span, Japan’s once limited defense posture in Southeast Asia has morphed into regularized air patrol missions and port calls, with access to strategic facilities in central Vietnam, and possibly on the Philippines’ Palawan Island and on Malaysia’s part of northern Borneo in the future, thanks to Southeast Asian countries’ resolve to hedge against China.

Japan and the Philippines last year conducted their first joint naval exercises, and earlier this year signed an agreement that will allow Japan to transfer defense equipment and technology to the Philippines, which has struggled with modernizing its navy, air force, and maritime law enforcement capacity fast enough to fend off China’s expansionist drive in the maritime domain. Japan and Vietnam conducted their first joint Coast Guard exercise last year and first joint naval drills earlier this year, and the two nations maintain regular channels of consultation on defense policy cooperation.

Meanwhile, Abe and Indonesian president Joko Widodo agreed during the latter’s visit to Japan last year to boost maritime defense cooperation, with the possibility of Tokyo working with Jakarta to develop defense equipment down the road.

Southeast Asian states seem to agree that Japan’s invigorated interest and focus is beneficial to the region. Just as important, Japan’s robust investment in the region’s economic future and advancing connectivity help instill confidence in Southeast Asian partners. Tokyo has a window of opportunity to shape the emerging regional order in the Asia Pacific in its favor, with ASEAN in the driver’s seat, if it continues to play its cards right.

Phuong Nguyen (@PNguyen_DC) is an Associate Fellow, Chair for Southeast Asia Studies (@SoutheastAsiaDC), CSIS This article first appeared on the CSIS Asia Policy Blog, CogitAsia, here. Reposted with permission.

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Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.afr.com/news/world/asia/...ast-with-south-china-sea-deal-20160320-gnmlv2

Mar 20 2016 at 3:48 PM
Updated Mar 20 2016 at 3:48 PM

Beijing accuses US of 'making a second Middle East' with South China Sea deal

by Lisa Murray

China has reacted angrily to an agreement between Washington and Manila which will allow American military forces access to disputed areas of the South China Sea.

State-owned news agency Xinhua accused the United States of fuelling tensions after Washington announced five locations that its forces can have access to under a 10-year security deal with the Philippines.

"Muddying waters in the South China Sea and making the Asia-Pacific a second Middle East will do no good to the United States," Xinhua said in a commentary posted on its website on Saturday.

"Implementing a defence pact signed two years ago with the Philippines, one of the most aggressive South China Sea claimants, and designating an air base facing the Nansha Islands as one of the five locations which American forces will have access to have fed speculation about Washington's real purpose behind the moves."

The security pact was signed by Washington and Manila in 2014 but faced legal challenges in the Philippines. In January, the Supreme Court of the Philippines ruled that it was consistent with the constitution, paving the way for Friday's agreement.

In announcing the five bases where US forces can operate, the State Department said that "no other nation in the region should take any other message away from this new agreement".

Court ruling imminent

However, relations between the US and China have been strained amid strong criticism of Beijing's construction activity on a string of reefs in disputed waters and Washington's decision to sail its ships close to these artificial islands in two recent "freedom of navigation" operations.

Australia has also been under pressure from the US to take a stronger stance on China's building activities and conduct its own "freedom of navigation" operations.

The agreement between Manila and Washington comes just weeks before an international court is expected to hand down a landmark ruling over China's claims in the area. The head of US naval operations, Admiral John Richardson, said he was concerned the ruling could be a trigger for Beijing to declare a special air defence zone over the South China Sea.

China caused controversy in November 2013 when it declared a similar zone over most of the East China Sea, including the airspace above the Japanese-controlled Senkaku Islands. Beijing also claims those islands, which it calls the Diaoyu, and the declaration ramped up tensions with Tokyo and even caused a diplomatic spat with Canberra, after it strongly criticised the move.

Admiral Richardson also said last week the US had seen "some surface ship activity" and "survey type of activity" around Scarborough Shoal in the disputed Spratly chain, which suggested China could be about to reclaim more land in the area.

Asked about the comments at a regular press briefing on Friday, a spokesman for China's Foreign Ministry said: "We have noted that officials from the US military have made multiple comments on the South China Sea issue, and kept hyping up and creating tensions.

"Given the fact that a certain country often deploys cutting-edge offensive weapons including missile destroyers and strategic bombers in the South China Sea, it is ludicrous that such a country would keep accusing others [of] militarisation and blaming China for carrying out justified and necessary defence development on its own territory."
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.americanthinker.com/blog...d_for_a_revitalized_us_nuclear_deterrent.html

March 20, 2016

Japan's security concerns and the need for a revitalized U.S. nuclear deterrent

By Sierra Rayne
Comments 6

Historically the poster child for non-proliferation and disarmament, Japan has recently begun to more openly contemplate development of nuclear weapons. While the populace may overwhelmingly oppose nuclear armament, many government and policy leaders are advocating a more autonomous foreign policy in response to a changing security environment.

This change in policy to a more assertive and less defensive stance could be seen when, in 2015, Japan's legislature approved a bill that removed limits on combat imposed by its constitution, thus opening the door to military action in defense of its allies in conflicts abroad. Until now, Japanese participation in overseas exploits has been largely restricted to humanitarian activities.

Japan has long advocated against nuclear proliferation and has itself pledged not to produce or acquire nuclear weapons in line with its three non-nuclear principles: not to allow the manufacture, possession, or importation of nuclear weapons. As a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), it placed itself under the treaty obligation as a non-nuclear weapons state.

A 2009 Congressional Research Service paper reported that while this may be the default position of Japan, a changing security environment in the past has often resulted in a strategic reassessment:

Despite multiple reiterations of Japan's non-nuclear status, this orthodoxy has been challenged on several occasions, usually when Japan has felt strategic vulnerability. Probably the most prominent episode occurred in the mid-1960s: China tested a nuclear device for the first time in 1964, and the United States was engaged in the Vietnam War. Prime Minister Eisaku Sato secretly commissioned several academics to produce a study exploring the costs and benefits of Japan's possible nuclearization, the so-called "1968/70 Internal Report." Another secret investigation into Japan's nuclear option was done by the Japan Defense Agency in 1995 as Japan assessed its standing in the new post-Cold War environment after the 1994 North Korean nuclear crisis in 1994 and as the international community was considering the indefinite extension of the NPT.

The implication is that threats to its security today will lead Japan to reconsider its nuclear strategy in the future.

Japan perceives China as one of its greatest security threats. As China continues to modernize and expand its military, the threat becomes more acute. North Korea's ongoing tests of nuclear devices and delivery vehicles have also altered the strategic dynamics in the East Asia region.

Exchanging basing rights for security and protection under the U.S. deterrence umbrella after WWII, any significant change in the United States' commitment to maintaining its nuclear deterrence structure would have profound implications for Japan's defense policy. A strengthened U.S.-China relationship and the ongoing buildup of nuclear weapons capacity by North Korea may call into question whether the U.S. will continue to exert dominance in East Asia to the extent needed to adequately defend Japanese interests.

Japan began researching nuclear weapons development during WWII. Today, with one of the world's most advanced civilian nuclear power programs and a highly technologically sophisticated society, many believe that Japan could develop nuclear weapons in a matter of months should it choose to do so.

Despite being a non-nuclear state, Japan has long been committed to developing and maintaining a full-spectrum fuel cycle capability. The Rokkasho reprocessing facility is due to come online in 2016 and will be capable of producing eight tons of weapons-grade plutonium annually. Japan already has 48 tons of plutonium stockpiled and a defense and space industry capable of producing advanced delivery systems.

As China gets ever more expansive in its territorial ambitions, and North Korea continues to flex its military muscle, other Asian countries are put on the defensive over issues that may be unlikely to trigger the extended deterrence promised by the U.S. If the U.S.-Japan alliance weakens, for example as a result of closer U.S.-China ties or a softening of the negotiating position on North Korea's denuclearization, it may strengthen the argument of advocates pushing for Japan to develop its own independent deterrence.

Some on the other side contend that a conflict between the U.S. and China would endanger U.S.-Japan relations by allowing the pro-nuclear weapons advocates to argue "that Washington lacked the capabilities and the political will necessary to retain its leading position in East Asia ... [and to] push for Japan to emerge as a heavily armed country able to protect itself in a newly multipolar Asia."

Regardless of which scenario ultimately plays out, the U.S. needs to reassure Japan that it will continue to provide security and the protection of its nuclear umbrella. This can be done only if the United States modernizes and enhances its nuclear arsenal both to act as a deterrent against its own adversaries and to reassure allies of its ongoing commitment to the geopolitical stability of the Asia-Pacific.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/new...s/news-story/525b2de0e88dcbfb451e506cc0148b60

North Korea: Kim Jong-un’s ‘credible’ nuclear boasts

Michael Sheridan||The Times|March 20, 2016 4:40PM
Comments 35

With fiery images and a touch of science-fiction villainy, North Korea has signalled to the world it is building an intercontinental ballistic missile tipped with a nuclear warhead capable of hitting America.


Kim Jong-un’s regime delivered the message last week in a sequence of propaganda pictures designed to display its scientific achievements following four atomic tests and the test-firing of dozens of missiles.

Kim, wearing a fur hat, inspected the cone-shaped missile re-entry vehicle and a metallic sphere that was pitted with hexagonal and pentagonal shapes. Peering intently at the gunmetal grey ball, which resembled a smaller version of the second American atomic bomb dropped on Japan during World War II, he praised his country’s progress.

“Our advanced strike assets, irrefutable in terms of science and technology, just show the strength and dignity of our country,” he said.

The problem for the Obama administration is that expert analysis of the pictures, plus some photo-detective work, show Kim’s boasts look increasingly credible.

Both the missile cone and the bomb were likely to be mock-ups but that did not diminish their significance, said Jeffrey Lewis, an expert on nuclear weapons at the James Martin Centre for Nonproliferation Studies in California.

“This is the first credible re-entry vehicle design that North Korea has displayed,” he wrote on 38 North, a specialist website, adding that “the nuclear weapon — a compact fission device — would be small enough for a missile”.

American officials still doubt North Korea has successfully miniaturised a nuclear weapon to fit a missile, pointing out that no test has been staged.

Divisions have emerged among outside experts who are debating the implications of four new and disturbing elements to the latest propaganda.

First, the weapons factory where Kim was photographed is real. The analyst Michael Madden, who tracks the Korean leadership, spotted that the ceiling lights and a guide rail in the pictures were identical to those in photos taken earlier at the Tae-sung machine factory near Pyongyang, known to be the regime’s main missile plant.

Second, in the photos Kim is posing in front of two versions of his intercontinental ballistic missile, codenamed KN-08, allowing analysts to work out it has two rocket engines, an indication of its extended, although untested, range.

Third, the conical re-entry vehicle was a vast improvement on the rudimentary models put on parade in the past. The nose cone was subjected to a flaming rocket engine blast at an outdoor test site “about five times stronger than the conditions at ballistic missile re-entry”.

Finally, the spherical nuclear device was evidently modelled to demonstrate North Korea is able to make a plutonium bomb similar to “Fat Man”, which devastated the Japanese city of Nagasaki on August 9, 1945.

Just like the 1945 bomb, the device’s surface was pitted with 90 or so geometric bumps. The technology involved in the system of geometrically shaped explosives, known as an “implosion lens”, designed to focus a blast on the plutonium core, is beyond the engineering capabilities of all but a handful of countries.

“There is enough open source evidence to take seriously the possibility North Korea has developed a compact fission device that is approximately 60cm [24in] in diameter and weighs 200kg-300kg [440lb-660lb],” wrote Lewis.

The Kim regime has worked with Pakistan, Iran and Syria on nuclear systems and the spherical device on show last week was said to resemble a blueprint from the network run by the “rogue” scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan that was broken up in 2008.

The propaganda blitz comes as Kim prepares for an important ruling party conference in May and faces the annual military exercises by the US and South Korea on the peninsula.

This year’s drills, unofficially said to feature “regime decapitation scenarios”, have triggered a torrent of war propaganda from North Korea.

In one propaganda sequence, a map of America was prominently displayed, indicating it as a prime target.

Last Friday, North Korea fired two medium-range missiles off its east coast. One landed in the Sea of Japan and the other exploded in flight.

Washington responded with tough unilateral sanctions, including a freeze on property assets in US territory and stricter measures to intercept North Korean-related shipping cargoes. The US move brought criticism from China, North Korea’s only ally, which signed up to lighter sanctions imposed by the UN but has yet to move beyond partial and symbolic enforcement.
 

vestige

Deceased
No, I've just had to triage what I've been covering. (We've only got so many news hounds on here and a lot of crap going on now.)

More crap than most people I know are even aware is about.

Thank you for trying to keep up.

These titles from above are very telling about the tensions rising:


South Korea Forms ‘Spartan 3000’ Unit To Attack North Korea In Case Of Contingency

Beijing accuses US of 'making a second Middle East' with South China Sea deal

BTW... all hell is taking place in the mideast at present.... are the Chinese hinting that it may be taking place in that region of the world as well?
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
More crap than most people I know are even aware is about.

Thank you for trying to keep up.

These titles from above are very telling about the tensions rising:


South Korea Forms ‘Spartan 3000’ Unit To Attack North Korea In Case Of Contingency

Beijing accuses US of 'making a second Middle East' with South China Sea deal

BTW... all hell is taking place in the mideast at present.... are the Chinese hinting that it may be taking place in that region of the world as well?

Well unlike the mess in MENA, the PRC is the main instigator for a large amount of chaos currently festering in Asia (ETA: or in the case of North Korea has more influence to tone it down than they appear to be exerting). So for them to basically say "give us what we want or else" just about settles any debate on their intentions as I see it.
 

Housecarl

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For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Post-boost_propulsion_system_for_ICBMs_under_study_999.html

Post-boost propulsion system for ICBMs under study

by Richard Tomkins
Dulles, Va. (UPI) Mar 18, 2016

Research on advanced propulsion technology for U.S. intercontinental ballistic missiles is to be performed by Orbital ATK, the company announced.

The work will be performed by Orbital ATK's Defense Systems group. The contract was issued by the U.S. Air Force and is part of a multi-year USAF Ground-Based Strategic Deterrent program to explore enhanced propulsion capability through improvements and/or alternatives to current post-boost propulsion systems.

The value of the award and other contract details were not disclosed.

Orbital ATK's effort will focus on trade studies and hardware demonstrations to improve the effectiveness of post-boost propulsion systems while reducing life-cycle costs and increasing safety and reliability.

"Orbital ATK's post-boost technology offers the GBSD community with years of experience supporting numerous systems, including the U.S. Navy Trident II," said Pat Nolan, vice president and general manager of Orbital ATK's Missile Products division, Defense Systems Group.

---

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/US_Minuteman_missile_obsolete_by_2030_Top_Commander_999.html

US Minuteman missile obsolete by 2030: Top Commander

by Staff Writers
Moscow (Sputnik) Mar 04, 2016

The United States needs to fully fund the replacement of its Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), or risk losing its ground based deterrent capabilities, commander of the US Air Force Global Strike Command, General Robin Rand, said in a congressional testimony on Wednesday.

"The Minuteman III with each year becomes more and more obsolete, and I am concerned that if we don't replace it, the enemy gets a vote and we will not be able to provide the capabilities that are needed," Rand told the US House of Representatives Armed Services Committee.

Rand warned against expensive life-extension programs to prolong the Minuteman III's service time, stating "we need to continue to fund for the GDSB [ground-based strategic deterrent] and have it meet a fully operational capability no later than 2030."

The United States is on a path to modernize its ground, sea and air-based nuclear deterrent in the coming three decades, a venture estimated to cost $1 trillion. Some critics have promoted postponing and even phasing out the ICBM leg of the nuclear triad due to its high cost.

The Minuteman III is currently the only ICBM in service in the United States, with approximately 450 missiles in silos across the country in the states of Nebraska, North Dakota, Montana, Colorado and Wyoming.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...eightened-challenges-as-it-pivots-to-the-west

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.pnj.com/story/news/milit...s-heightened-challenges-pivots-west/80250684/

U.S. faces heightened challenges as it pivots to the west

Kirk Spitzer, Special for USA Today 6:58 p.m. CDT March 19, 2016

New Chinese islands, North Korean missiles, a more assertive Japanese defense force and the ongoing U.S. military “rebalancing” toward the west were among the key issues dominating the Asia-Pacific defense landscape last year.

And with defense budgets rising across the region, this year looks as if it will be no simpler in this economically vital region.

“The overall security situation in the Asia-Pacific region has gotten a bit worse and certainly more complicated in the past year,” said Ralph Cossa, president of the Center for Strategic & International Studies’ Pacific Forum CSIS, a think tank in Honolulu.

The Asia-Pacific region has become heavily militarized. Seven of the world’s 10 largest militaries and five of the world’s declared nuclear powers are located there, according to U.S. Pacific Command. Asia-Pacific defense spending by countries in the region grew by 27 percent from 2010, reaching $344 billion in 2014, according to the International Institute of Strategic Studies in London.

The arms buildup is being led by China, which has seen double-digit increases in annual defense spending for nearly two decades (it spent an estimated $216 billion on defense in 2014).

“Over the past two decades, China’s People’s Liberation Army has transformed itself from a large but antiquated force into a capable, modern military. Its technology and operational proficiency still lag behind those of the United States, but it has rapidly narrowed the gap,” the RAND Corp. concluded in a recent report.

Island building

China has been pressing aggressive territorial demands across the region. It’s been engaged in a tense standoff with Japan over the Senkaku Islands — which China calls Diaoyu — in the East China Sea.

And it has claimed nearly all of the strategic South China Sea, which also is claimed in part or entirely by five other countries.

China is backing up its claims — delineated by a so-called “nine-dash line” — by dredging to create artificial islands on seven geographic features in the Spratly Islands group. Several of those new islands include military-size airfields and deep-water ports that U.S. officials believe could be used to disrupt sea or air navigation in the vital waterway.

The U.S. Department of Defense’s Asia-Pacific Maritime Security Strategy noted that as of June 2015, China had reclaimed 2,900 acres of land in the South China Sea since its island-building campaign began in December 2013.

“When one looks at China’s pattern of provocative actions toward smaller claimant states — the lack of clarity on its sweeping ‘nine-dash line’ claim that is inconsistent with international law — and the deep asymmetry between China’s capabilities and those of its smaller neighbors — well, it’s no surprise that the scope and pace of building man-made islands raise serious questions about Chinese intentions,” said Adm. Harry B. Harris Jr. in a speech at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute in Canberra in March. Harris assumed command of the U.S. Pacific Command in May.

U.S. officials reacted to the island-building campaign — belatedly, in the view of some critics — by sending a guided missile frigate, the USS Lassen, within 12 miles of one of China’s new islands in late October in a “freedom of navigation” operation meant to assert navigational rights in international waters. China, which has claimed “indisputable sovereignty over the islands in the South China Sea and the adjacent waters,” condemned the action.

The U.S. takes no position on competing sovereignty claims in the South China Sea but said that disputes should be resolved peacefully and that China’s new islands provide no territorial rights.

Of the 35 “freedom of navigation” operations conducted by the U.S. Navy in 2014, 19 took place in Pacific Command’s area of operations.

“We want a peaceful resolution of all disputes, and an immediate and lasting halt to land reclamation by any claimant,” Secretary of Defense Ashton B. Carter said earlier in 2015. “We also oppose any further militarization of disputed features. … There should be no mistake about this, the United States will fly, sail and operate wherever international law allows, as we do all around the world.”

The U.S. is heavily committed to the region. About 368,000 military personnel are stationed in the Asia-Pacific, including 97,000 west of the International Dateline, and that force is slated to grow.

The Navy plans to increase the number of ships assigned to the U.S. Pacific Fleet in areas outside of U.S. territory by roughly 30 percent during the next five years. Two new Aegis-class destroyers will join 7th Fleet this year, as well, and several older ships have been replaced with newer versions.

U.S. naval forces on Guam added another attack submarine — for a total of four — in 2015 and are expected to add a Joint High-Speed Vessel by 2018.

A plan to shift some of the 19,000 Marines based in Okinawa, Japan, to a “more distributed model” is underway, with up to 2,500 Marines serving on rotational deployments to Darwin, Australia, in 2016-17.

A challenge to the north

Erratic, nuclear-armed North Korea remains a challenge, as well, and 25,000 U.S. troops are based in South Korea.

North Korea is believed to have enough weapon-grade plutonium to be able to construct up to eight rudimentary nuclear weapons, though its ability to deliver them via ballistic missiles is still in doubt.

“North Korea remains the biggest immediate challenge,” Cossa said. “What’s pretty certain is that North Korea will not be giving up its nuclear weapons anytime soon.”

The North Korea threat, along with China’s growing strength and assertiveness, helped Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe pass legislation — over widespread public opposition — that will ease long-standing, postwar restraints on Japan’s powerful, but low-profile military. Already, Japan is developing an amphibious warfare capability, building up intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance assets, and revising guidelines that will allow its Self Defense Forces to operate more closely with U.S. forces.

“There’s no shortage of challenges that confront us,” said Harris at a change-of-command ceremony in Hawaii in May. “From North Korea and their quest for nuclear weapons and the means to deliver them inter-continentally. To China’s pre-posterous claims to — and land reclamation activities in — the South China Sea. To a resurgent Russia whose Pacific coastline boasts four strategic submarine and air bases and exceeds the distance from here to California. … This is hard work, but this is what we live for.”

A major player

The territory covered by U.S. Pacific Command includes:

•About 50% of the Earth’s surface

•36 nations, including Canada, Mexico, Japan, Australia, Peru, Chile, Singapore and Malaysia

•5 of the world’s declared nuclear nations

•7 of the 10 largest standing, or full-time, militaries in the world

•9 of the 10 largest ports
 

Housecarl

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World | Sun Mar 20, 2016 2:33pm EDT
Related: World, Brazil

Brazil's Rousseff lacks Senate votes to defeat impeachment: senator

BRASILIA/SAO PAULO | By Anthony Boadle and Tatiana Bautzer


Brazil's ruling coalition lacks the votes in the Senate to defeat a request to remove left-leaning President Dilma Rousseff from office if it is approved by the lower house, a senior senator in the coalition's largest party said on Sunday.

The leading member of the Brazilian Democratic Movement Party (PMDB), who asked not to be identified because of the sensitive nature of the issue, told Reuters the coalition could not rally the one-third of votes needed in the 81-seat Senate to stop Rousseff being dismissed.

On Sunday, Estadao newspaper quoted sources close to Senate Speaker Renan Calheiros, also a member of the PMDB, as saying he believed that if the lower house approves the ongoing impeachment process it would create an unstoppable wave of support for removing Rousseff.

A spokesman for Calheiros was not immediately available for comment.

Congress' lower house opened impeachment proceedings last week against the unpopular Rousseff based on opposition allegations that she deliberately manipulated government accounts to boost her chances of reelection to a second term in 2014.

Rousseff, a former Marxist guerrilla who is Brazil's first female president, has vigorously denied any wrongdoing.

The impeachment process only adds to the crisis that has hit Brazil, shaken to the core by its biggest ever corruption scandal - an investigation into political kickbacks to the ruling coalition from contractors working for state oil company Petrobras. (PETR4.SA)

Rousseff's government is also grappling with the worst recession in decades in Latin America's largest economy and an epidemic of the mosquito-borne Zika virus, as it scrambles to host the Olympic Games in Rio de Janeiro in August.

A survey published on Saturday by polling firm Datafolha showed support for Rousseff's impeachment rising to 68 percent, close to the record level of 71 percent reached in August.

With opposition parties hurrying along proceedings, a special impeachment committee could present its findings as soon as mid-April. A plenary session of the lower house would then need to vote on whether to send Rousseff for trial in the Senate.

The senior PMDB source told Reuters that, if the lower house gives the green light for a trial, the ruling coalition lacks the one-half votes in the Senate needed to refuse the request to try her there. That would mean Rousseff would automatically be suspended from office and Vice-President Michel Temer, the leader of the PMDB, would take over for six months during the trial.

"If the lower house cannot block impeachment, then we in the Senate have no way of blocking it," the senator said, adding that he believed the president would be removed from office.


LULA APPEALS APPOINTMENT SUSPENSION

Last weekend, more than 1 million people poured into the streets of several cities to demand Rousseff's departure, the biggest in a wave of protests calling for her resignation. A pro-government protest on Friday led by former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, drew nearly 100,000 people in Sao Paulo.

Rousseff appointed Lula as her chief of staff on Wednesday, hoping to capitalize on his political influence to rally support in the lower house to halt the impeachment process.

However, the move sparked protests in several cities as the opposition slammed the move as an attempt to shield Lula from prosecutors' charges of money laundering and fraud in the Petrobras investigation.

Ministers can only be tried by the Supreme Court, putting Lula out of reach of the task force in the southern city of Curitiba that is leading the Petrobras probe.

A Supreme Court judge on Friday struck down Lula's appointment saying it appeared aimed at perverting the course of justice, after the judge leading the Petrobras probe released recordings that he said showed Rousseff and Lula discussing how to block the investigation.

Both Lula and Rousseff denied this.

Lula's lawyers said on Sunday they had appealed to the head of the Supreme Court to overturn the suspension of his ministerial appointment.


(Writing by Daniel Flynn; Editing by Mary Milliken)
 

Housecarl

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U.S Marine in Iraq killed by Islamic State rocket, others injured

By Daniel Uria | March 19, 2016 at 12:54 PM

MAKHMUR , Iraq, March 19 (UPI) -- An American Marine who was part of the U.S.-led coalition fighting the Islamic State was killed in Iraq when an enemy rocket struck a base in the town of Makhmur.

Pentagon Press Secretary Peter Cook confirmed the death and said the marine was "providing force protection fire support at a recently established coalition fire base near Makhmur in northern Iraq."

The causality was not identified, as next of kin are still awaiting notification. Cook added that several other Marine's were also wounded in the strike and were being treated for "varying injuries."

"Our thoughts and prayers areý with the service members involved, their families and their coalition teammates who will continue the fight against ISIL with resolve and determination," Cook said in a statement.

USA Today reported a second rocket also hit the base, but it didn't cause any damage or casualties.

"[Combined Joint Task Force] extends our condolences to the family and loved ones of the Coalition service member killed in northern Iraq earlier today," Col. Christopher Garver, a spokesman for the task force, said Saturday on Twitter.

This death represents the first U.S. service member to be killed since Master Sgt. Joshua L. Wheeler was killed by small arms fire while supporting an attempt to free 70 hostages held by the Islamic state in October.

http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...uot-of-USMC-on-the-Ground-in-Iraq-to-fight-IS

(What does Da Nang look like in Aramaic or Arabic script?.......)

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World | Sun Mar 20, 2016 11:44am EDT
Related: World

Some U.S. Marines on ground in Iraq to fight ISIS: U.S. military

WASHINGTON

A detachment of U.S. Marines is on the ground in Iraq to support U.S. and coalition efforts against Islamic State, the U.S. military said on Sunday.

A group of Marines from the 26th Marine Expeditionary Unit, or MEU, will add to the U.S. forces already in Iraq battling Islamic State, it said.

The 26th MEU is currently deployed in the U.S. 5th Fleet area of operations, which covers the Gulf, Red Sea, Arabian Sea, and parts of the Indian Ocean.

(Reporting by Andrea Shalal; Editing by Hugh Lawson)
 

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Trending

Marine Killed at Secret Firebase in Iraq

By Rick Moran
March 20, 2016
14 comments

A detachment from the 26th Marine Expeditionary Unit has set up a secret firebase in northern Iraq to support operations of the US and coalition forces fighting ISIS.

Yesterday, ISIS targeted the firebase, firing two rockets, one of which landed inside the base killing one Marine and wounding several others.

Initially, the Pentagon claimed that the Marine, Staff Sgt. Louis F. Cardin, of Temecula, California was killed by "indirect fire" from ISIS. But it seems clear that ISIS saw the Marines moving into the firebase and fired directly into the base.

The existence of a combat unit in Iraq that could be targeted by ISIS was unknown until the rocket attack. The Pentagon claims they were going to announce the existence of the base sometime this week.

CNN:
The Pentagon has yet to formally acknowledge it has established its first U.S. fire base in Iraq in the current fight against ISIS for what the official said will eventually be a limited ground combat operation in support of the Iraqis.

The Marines will be using their field artillery guns in the coming weeks to help defend Iraqi troops as they move towards Mosul. For now, the artillery is to defend another nearby base where American troops are getting 5,000 Iraqi forces ready for the operation to retake Mosul.

The Marines first began moving into the area just two weeks ago from their own base of operations aboard an amphibious assault ship the USS Kearsarge, the defense official told CNN.

The Marines had finished setting up and testing their artillery just two or three days before the attack. There was a brief mention of a coalition fire base in a statement Saturday announcing the death of the Marine, but the official said the only troops there are American Marines and no other coalition forces.

On Sunday, the coalition announced that in consultation with the government of Iraq, the U.S. "has assigned a detachment of U.S. Marines from the 26th Marine Expeditionary Unit to the support of Iraqi Security Force and Coalition ground operations. The detachment from the 26th MEU will add to the Marines and Sailors currently in Iraq" supporting the effort against ISIS.

The Marines have already named the location "Fire Base Bell." The U.S has similar artillery at two other large Iraqi bases, but Bell is the only known fire base. That terminology signifies this is a small remote location designed to use its artillery to support infantry troops at forward locations.

Why the secrecy? Probably because President Obama had assured the American people many times previously that there would be no combat troops deployed to Iraq.

Washington Post: (10/30/15)
The White House is announcing Friday that a small number of special forces will be put on the ground in the fight against the Islamic State in Syria -- a new strategy that pretty clearly contradicts past Obama and administration statements that U.S. forces would not be put on the ground there. As the United States got drawn into the fight against the Islamic State earlier this year, the White House repeatedly emphasized this point -- a move to assure the nation that we wouldn't be drawn into a new war like Iraq or Afghanistan.

Asked Friday about the incongruence of Obama's past comments and putting these boots on the ground, White House press secretary Josh Earnest repeatedly emphasized that these are not combat troops -- a distinction that many disagree with, we would note -- and suggested promises to not put boots on the ground were being taken "out of context."

“You’ve read one quote that, to be fair, is out of context," he said when NBC's Kristen Welker pointed to Obama saying in 2013 there would be no U.S. boots on the ground.

But Obama has actually said no boots on the ground repeatedly in 2013, before adjusting his language slightly -- but notably -- in 2014.

Of course, this puts a great big bullseye on the backs of those Marines, billeting them out in the middle of nowhere, making them highly vulnerable to ISIS artillery and rocket attacks.

Is this a way for the president to test the waters regarding a much larger intervention in Iraq? The logic of the situation demands that if Firebase Bell is attacked and we have a significant loss of life, more combat troops will be needed to protect them - and the cycle of escalation begins.

It's one thing to have special operators assisting the Iraqis with training, lasing targets for US warplanes, or assassinating high value ISIS targets.

But Marines are lethal weapons. They are there to kill ISIS fighters and the fact that we are using one of our crack Marine outfits as part of this deployment changes the character of our intervention in Iraq.
 

Housecarl

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Marine Combat Death in Iraq Exposes Challenge of Quickened ISIS Fight

Mar 20, 2016 | by Richard Sisk
Comments 7

The first death of a U.S. Marine in combat against the Islamic State in Iraq and the wounding of several others in a rocket attack Saturay highlights the difficulty of the U.S. military's "accelerated" campaign to take back Mosul and Raqqa from the militant group.

The Defense Department on Sunday identified the Marine as Staff Sgt. Louis F. Cardin, of Temecula, California, who died of wounds suffered when the enemy attacked his unit with rocket fire. He was assigned to the 2nd Battalion, 6th Marine Regiment, 26th Marine Expeditionary Unit, based at Camp Lejeune in North Carolina.

Defense Secretary Ashton Carter has repeatedly said the military is on an "accelerated," if indefinite, timetable to oust the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria from its two main strongholds. He said last Friday that President Barack Obama has been pressing for it to happen before he leaves office.

"That's what he (Obama) said he wants," Carter said at a Politico Playbook breakfast. "That's what he's told me and Gen. Dunford," referring to Joint Chiefs Chairman Marine Gen. Joseph Dunford.

Carter has said that taking Raqqa, the self-proclaimed capital of ISIS in northeastern Syria and Mosul in northwestern Iraq were the keys to defeating the terrorist group. Obama has told him to "get this done as soon as possible. I'd like to not leave this to my successor," Carter said.

When asked about Obama's remarks as relayed by Carter, Air Force Col. Pat Ryder, a spokesman for U.S. Central Command, echoed previous statements by officials at CentCom, Combined Joint Task Force-Operation Inherent Resolve in Baghdad and Carter himself in declining to give a schedule for taking Raqqa and Mosul.

"I'm not going to put a timeline on it," Ryder said, while adding that the U.S. military was "moving as fast as possible" in concert with the capabilities on the ground of the Iraqi Security Forces and Kurdish Peshmerga fighters in Iraq and with the Syrian Democratic Forces in Syria.

Ryder spoke in a phone briefing from CentCom headquarters in Tampa to the Pentagon on Friday, a day before the announcement of the Marine's death at a firebase in Mahmour, about 60 miles southeast of Mosul.

Using another acronym for ISIS, Ryder said that "ISIL is heavily contesting those areas" around Mahmour to prevent an Iraqi security forces buildup there for an eventual assault on Mosul and also in the area northwest of Baiji, where Iraqi forces have been attempting to clear a path up the Tigris river valley up to Mahmour.

Ryder also noted continuing ISIS attacks in and around Ramadi in southern Anbar province, which Iraqi forces declared cleared on Feb. 9 after a months-long offensive to retake the city about 70 miles west of Baghdad. "ISIL may have lost this terrain but they haven't given up on it," he said.

The Marine killed Saturday and the others who were wounded were "providing force protection fire support at a recently established coalition fire base near Makhmour" and had come under fire from ISIS rockets, Pentagon Press Secretary Peter Cook said in a statement on Saturday.

"This is the second combat death since the start of Operation Inherent Resolve, and it reminds us of the risks our men and women in uniform face every day," Cook said.

The first U.S. service member to be killed in combat in Iraq since the U.S. began bombing ISIS in August 2014 was 39-year-old Special Operations Army Master Sgt. Joshua L. Wheeler. He was killed last October in a firefight while coming to the aid of Kurdish Peshmerga fighters in a raid to free hostages in an ISIS prison near Mahmour.

Wheeler's death appeared to conflict with the rules against "boots on the ground" combat and limiting the U.S. military's role to the air campaign and training, advising and assisting local forces.

However, Carter said shortly after the raid in which Wheeler was killed, "This is combat" and "we expect do to do more of this kind of thing."

Dunford said again last week in testimony to the Senate Armed Services Committee that operations to retake Raqqa and Mosul had already begun in the form of "shaping" operations to isolate the two cities. He also declined to put a timetable on the assaults.

"It's already started, it's a slow and steady squeeze," Brett McGurk, the U.S. special envoy to the coalition formed to combat ISIS, said in an address last Saturday to the American University of Iraq at Sulaymaniyah, The Washington Post reported. However, "it's going to be a long campaign," McGurk said.

Despite the resilience shown by ISIS, an analysis by IHS Jane's last week said the campaign to defeat the terrorist group was succeeding and had reached a "turning point" in terms of loss of territory and efforts to cut off the group's funding and its ability to recruit foreign fighters.

"The tide of the war is turning against the Islamic State," HIS Jane's said. "The Islamic State is increasingly isolated, and being perceived as in decline."

--Richard Sisk can be reached at Richard.Sisk@Military.com.
 
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