WAR 03-19-2016-to-03-25-2016_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****

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Kenya says its forces kill 34 al Shabaab fighters in Somalia

Source: Reuters - Sun, 20 Mar 2016 15:23 GMT
Author: Reuters

(Adds second incident, updates toll)

MOGADISHU, March 20 (Reuters) - Kenyan troops killed 34 al Shabaab militants in two separate incidents on Saturday and Sunday in Somalia and two of its own soldiers were killed in an ambush, a military spokesman said.

On Saturday, the Kenya Defence Forces (KDF) killed 21 of the insurgents in the southern town of Afmadow in the ambush in which the two soldiers died.

David Obonyo, spokesman for KDF, said in a statement that on Sunday, Kenyan troops killed a further 13 fighters just north of Ras Kamboni, also in southern Somalia.

"The KDF soldiers pursued them following information of an intended probe attack. Following the incident, a middle level al Shabaab commander has been detained, 13 militants were killed," Obonyo said, referring to a reconnoitre attack by al Shabaab.

"Regrettably, KDF suffered two fatalities and five injuries. The injured were evacuated and are receiving medical attention," he said of the incident on Saturday. An improvised explosive device also damaged one of the Kenyan army's vehicles, he said.

He said from the two incidents, KDF troops had recovered 27 AK 47 rifles, five rocket propelled grenades, a pistol, two PKM machine guns and ammunition.

Somalia's government is battling to rebuild the Horn of Africa nation after more than two decades of conflict. Al Shabaab ruled large parts of Somalia until 2011, when it was driven out of Mogadishu by African Union (AU) and Somali troops.

The militants, who aim to topple the Western-backed government, often inflate casualty numbers and downplay the number of their own fighters killed.

Abdiasis Abu Musab, al Shabaab's military operation spokesman, told Reuters on Saturday their fighters had killed 12 soldiers in the Afmadow attack.

In January, Kenyan troops as part of the AU mission in Somalia (AMISOM) took heavy losses when al Shabaab launched a dawn raid on their camp in El Adde near the Kenyan border. No exact casualty figure has been given.

Al Shabaab said more than 100 soldiers were killed.

(Reporting by Feisal Omar in MOGADISHU and Humphrey Malalo in NAIROBI; Writing by George Obulutsa; Editing by Louise Ireland)
 

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http://www.cnn.com/2016/03/20/americas/brazil-qa-turmoil/index.html

Brazil Q&A: Why is South America's largest country in such a big mess?

By Julia Jones and Shasta Darlington, CNN
Updated 9:01 PM ET, Sun March 20, 2016

Sao Paulo (CNN) — The Brazilian government, already struggling with a deep recession and Zika virus pandemic, is now fighting just to survive.

The latest crisis began when federal police took former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in for questioning as part of a long-running corruption investigation.

A few days later, his handpicked successor and protege, President Dilma Rousseff, named him chief of staff, a move that largely protects him from prosecution. This prompted massive street protests. A legal battle has ensued trying to block Lula's appointment while efforts to impeach the president have gained momentum.

Here are some questions and answers about the turmoil roiling South America's largest country:


What's Petrobras and 'Operation Car Wash'?

The trouble really began back in March 2014 when Rousseff's party was ensnared in a money laundering investigation into Petrobras, Brazil's state-run oil company.

The investigation, dubbed "Car Wash" in reference to the car wash services at gas stations, uncovered a widespread bribery operation.

Here's the way it worked:

Construction companies paid huge kickbacks to well-placed Petrobras executives and politicians in exchange for lucrative contracts. The probe has engulfed dozens of Brazil's leading business leaders and politicians -- many, but not all, from the governing Workers' Party. Many who've been charged have agreed to testify for the state, leading to a longer list of suspects. Operation Car Wash is still ongoing, has had almost 30 individual subinvestigations and more than 100 arrests.

It's worth mentioning that Rousseff was the head of Petrobras' board from 2003 to 2010, when she left to run for office. She has not been implicated in the investigation and says that she was not aware of the corruption.


How does Lula da Silva fit into this?

Earlier this month, federal police in the "car wash" probe raided Lula da Silva's home and questioned him on suspicion he benefited from the Petrobras bribery scheme. At the same time, prosecutors in a different case placed the once-popular former President under formal investigation of money laundering charges linking him to construction companies named in the Petrobras bid cartel.

OAS, Odebrecht, Camargo Correa and others made large donations to his NGO, the Lula Institute, and paid for luxury renovations in two properties -- a country home and a beachfront property in Guaruja, in the state of Sao Paulo -- investigators suspect actually belonged to Lula da Silva.

The Lula Institute says Lula da Silva is not the owner of either properties, but he was seen inspecting the triplex apartment in 2014, and the country home is registered in the name of two associates of Lula da Silva's son.

Lula da Silva's controversial appointment to chief of staff would make it so that only the Brazilian Supreme Court could take on the case against him, a process that could take months, if not years.

In recorded phone calls made public, Rousseff and Lula da Silva talk about sending him a document formalizing his appointment as chief of staff -- something to be only used if "necessary." This is being interpreted by critics to mean he could use the documents to avoid imprisonment.

The move, seen as political by the opposition, has been defended by Lula da Silva himself. At a recent pro-government protest, he showed up in person and said, "I'm going there to help President Dilma (sic) to do the things that she needs to do in this country."


Why are people protesting?

There are two groups protesting, and they have diverging ideologies.

By far, the largest is the pro-impeachment group. They are protesting rampant corruption plaguing the Workers' Party government and other parties. "Resign now!" is a popular chant aimed at Rousseff.

They are also pushing lawmakers to forge ahead with impeachment proceedings. These protesters sport the country's flag colors, yellow and green, and Brazilian soccer team jerseys. Inflatable dolls of Rousseff and Lula da Silva donning a prisoner uniform are sure sights in these demonstrations.

Another group is demonstrating in support of the Workers' Party, Lula da Silva and Rousseff.

They say they are out in defense of democracy, chanting "we won't accept a coup," a reference to the numerous attempts to have Rousseff removed from office -- from pressuring her to resign to impeachment proceedings that they say are unfounded.

They are quick to remember the coup d'état in 1964 when the country's left-wing government was overthrown and replaced with a military dictatorship that followed for 20 years. These protesters have a strong union base and have been wearing bright red, the Workers' Party color.


Will Rousseff be forced out of office?

With the popular protests gathering momentum, the lower house of Congress moved forward with an impeachment procedure that had been languishing.

Started in December, the process has been accepted by the lower house of Congress, and a 65-member committee was already formed to analyze the impeachment request. There were many impeachment requests filed, but the one accepted by Congress alleges Rousseff violated the budget law because she used accounting tricks to hide a large deficit to win re-election in 2014. The impeachment request is not linked to the corruption investigations.

Rousseff will have 10 sessions to present her defense, and the lower house would need a two-thirds majority to pass the impeachment. If Rousseff is impeached, Vice President Michel Temer would assume the presidency until new elections in 2018.


Is this going to affect the Olympics?

Many factors will be against Brazil this summer:

-- Protests might still be rocking the country in August.

-- There were 1.5 million cases of Zika in 2015.

-- Contaminated water in Summer Games sites is a concern.

Not surprisingly, the political shake-up has deeply affected the Brazilian economy, which coupled with a deep recession, has resulted in fewer than half Summer Games events tickets being sold. Organizers expected Brazilians to buy more, but they have been greatly affected by the economic woes.

After the Rousseff-Lula da Silva conversation was leaked, Brazil's financial markets responded immediately with a jump, as analysts believe impeaching Rousseff would help recover investors' trust in the country's battered economy.

CNN's Jason Hanna contributed to this report.



 

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http://www.foxnews.com/world/2016/03/21/indonesia-protests-china-rescue-illegal-fishing-vessel.html

Asia

Indonesia protests China rescue of illegal fishing vessel

Published March 21, 2016 · Associated Press

JAKARTA, Indonesia – Indonesia is protesting the Chinese coast guard's rescue of a ship it says was fishing illegally in Indonesian waters.

Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi told reporters after meeting with a senior Chinese diplomat on Monday that the government wants an explanation from Beijing about the incident.

Indonesia says the Chinese vessel was intercepted by a fisheries ministry patrol ship on Saturday within Indonesia's exclusive economic zone which overlaps with the South China Sea. The fishing vessel was being towed when a Chinese coastguard vessel collided with it, allowing its escape.

Marsudi says China's coast guard "violated our sovereignty" and called on China to respect international law.
 

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RELIGION

Fears in Iraqi government, army over Shiite militias' power

Published March 21, 2016 · Associated Press

BAGHDAD – It was a tense confrontation between two forces supposed to be on the same side in Iraq.

First, heavily armed police, led by the interior minister, waded into a Shiite militia base south of Baghdad and arrested its deputy commander, accused of organizing attacks on Sunni mosques. They loaded the man, Ali Reda, into an armored SUV.

Then militia reinforcements descended, surrounded the police and demanded Reda be freed. Weapons were drawn. The minister, Mohammed al-Ghabban, the highest figure in Iraq's police force, frantically called Baghdad from inside his SUV.

In the end, al-Ghabban surrendered his prisoner and left empty-handed, angry and humiliated.

The standoff in mid-January, described to The Associated Press by six different officials and militia leaders, was a stark example of the power that Shiite militias have accrued in Iraq and their boldness in wielding it.

These militias, many of them backed by Iran, mobilized in 2014 to fight Sunni extremists from the Islamic State group. However, they are now showing no intention of standing down after the battle, demanding instead to be a major force shaping Iraq. That prospect worries not only Iraq's Sunni minority but also officials in the military and the Shiite-led government, who fear the militias will dominate Iraq the way the Revolutionary Guard does Iran and the guerrilla group Hezbollah does Lebanon.

Two top generals warned that the army could eventually come to blows with the militias, known collectively as the "Hashd," Arabic for "mobilization."

"They (the militias) have now infiltrated the government and are meddling in politics," said Ali Omran, commander of the army's 5th Infantry Division and a veteran of numerous battles against IS. "I told the Hashd people that one day I and my men may fight them."

The more than 50 Shiite militias in Iraq have between 60,000 and 140,000 fighters, according to estimates from the government and the Hashd itself. They are backed by tanks and weapons, and have their own intelligence agency, operations rooms and court of law.

The larger militias, like Asaib Ahl al-Haq, the Hezbollah Brigades, Badr and the Peace Brigades, have been in place since soon after the 2003 ouster of Saddam Hussein. They are linked to political parties, effectively forming armed branches for politicians.

But the ranks of the militias swelled dramatically after IS overran nearly a third of Iraq in the summer of 2014 and Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, Iraq's top Shiite cleric, called on able-bodied males to fight IS. At the time, tens of thousands turned out.

Those same militias now want to remain a permanent, independent armed force and are resisting attempts to integrate them into the military or police, the AP found from interviews with more than 15 government officials, army generals and militia leaders and visits to Tikrit and Samarra, Sunni-majority areas where the militias now hold power. The militias insist they have earned a special status, pointing to the 5,000 militiamen killed and 16,000 wounded fighting IS.

"Those who sacrificed more are entitled to more," said Hamed al-Jazaeery, head of the al-Khorasani Brigades militia. "What is written with blood cannot be removed. It is not ink on paper."

Al-Jazaeery wears the black turban of a cleric and the camouflage fatigues of a fighter. The walls of his office are adorned with photos of the leader of Iran's Islamic Revolution, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, and its current supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Other photos show al-Jazaeery posing with Iranian Gen. Qassem Suleimani, the powerful Revolutionary Guard figure who helped organize the Iraqi militias against IS.

"We want to be a third power in Iraq," alongside the army and police, al-Jazaeery said. "Why can't the Hashd be like the Revolutionary Guard in Iran?"

The model of the Revolutionary Guard, often cited by militia leaders, would be a dramatic change for Iraq's militias. In Iran, the Guard is an elite force independent of — and better armed than — the military, tasked with "protecting" the Shiite cleric-led power structure. It is effectively a state within a state, rivaling the political strength of Iran's supreme leader.

Sunnis fear such militia power would enforce Shiite domination of Iraq. Sunnis already accuse militias of targeting them with abuses. Hundreds of green and red Shiite banners and images of imams — historic religious leaders revered by the Shiites — are posted all over Sunni areas under militia control north and east of Baghdad, in a blatant challenge to sectarian sensitivities.

The militias call themselves "holy" or "glorious," and often talk of their battle as a fight for Shiism rather than Iraq. They give Shiite names to major offensives, only for the government to ban their use.

"I joined the Hashd for the imams, not for the government," said one militiaman, Mohammed al-Azghar, in the central city of Samarra.

The official agency created to oversee the fighters, the Popular Mobilization Commission, has instead become the militias' political lever in the machinery of power. The government now funds the militias, but some of them refuse to even give officials the names of their fighters, citing security concerns.

"People fear and trust us more than they fear and trust the government," boasted Ahmed al-Assady, a Shiite lawmaker and spokesman for the Mobilization Commission. "They fear us because we act, not just talk."

Advisers from Iran's Revolutionary Guard and Lebanon's Hezbollah have helped Iraq's militias in the battle against IS. Billboards around Baghdad announce the "martyrdom" of fighters, alongside images of Iran's Khamenei and Khomeini and Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. Militia TV channels and newspapers also accuse the government of corruption and cast the militias as the true protectors of Iraqis.

In Tikrit, Saddam Hussein's hometown north of Baghdad, the extent of the militias' prestige is on display: The headquarters of a senior militiaman, Jassim al-Husseini, is located at one of the late dictator's opulent palaces along the Tigris River.

The chain-smoking al-Husseini wears a military brown jacket and walks with a cane because of a leg injury sustained while fighting IS last year. He confidently spoke of the flaws of Iraq's government and said the militias cannot be integrated into its security forces.

"Integrating us in the security forces and the military is not an idea that will help build our nation," he said.

Now the militias demand to participate in a long-expected offensive to retake largely Sunni Mosul, Iraq's second-largest city and the main stronghold of IS rule in Iraq — something the military and armed Sunni groups oppose.

"The Hashd will take part in the battle to liberate Mosul no matter what," said senior Shiite politician Hadi al-Amry, who is also commander of the Iranian-backed Badr militia. "No one can stop us from entering Mosul."

In Samarra, Sunnis say they already experience what is feared could happen if the militias enter Mosul. The city has a Sunni majority but is home to one of the most revered Shiite shrines, blown up by al-Qaida 10 years ago. In 2014, Shiite militias successfully prevented IS from taking Samarra and have kept their grip on the city since.

Local dignitaries and officials air a flood of grievances blamed on militias, including killings of Sunnis, takeovers of schools and the forcing of Sunnis to sell property in the prime real estate area close to the shrine. To the thud of artillery shelling in the distance, the city council's deputy chairman, Muzher Fleih, said 650 Sunnis have disappeared, believed abducted and killed by the militias. Among them was his brother, who disappeared last year and was found dead soon after.

"The city is oppressed," he said.

Militia leaders insist any abuses are isolated incidents. "We are not angels," said al-Assady, the Mobilization spokesman. "It is only natural that we make mistakes."

Some in the government and military are beginning to see the militias as a danger to the state itself. In a sign of wariness over the militias' autonomy, Shiite Prime Minister Haidar al-Abadi charged recently that government funds to the Hashd were being mismanaged. One of his close aides told the AP that the comments were directed at Abu Mahdi al-Mohandes, the Hashd's most powerful figure, who is wanted by the United States in connection with the 1983 bombing of the American and French embassies in Kuwait.

There has also been friction with the military. Last month, militiamen refused orders to vacate a building in a military base north of Baghdad, and the army sent troops to take it over. They found the militiamen ready for a fight, with snipers stationed on the roof and in sandbagged positions around it. The dispute was resolved when a substitute building was found for the militiamen.

Since its 2014 collapse, the military has been slowly recovering. But Gen. Abdul-Wahab al-Saadi, deputy commander of the army's elite counterterrorism force, said the militias don't want the military to regain its strength.

"They may be tempted to take on the army if they don't have their way," he said.
 

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Paris terror suspect Abdeslam planned more attacks, official says

Published March 21, 2016 · Associated Press

BRUSSELS – The top suspect in last year's Paris attacks told investigators after he was captured that he was planning new operations from Brussels and possibly had access to several weapons, Belgium's foreign minister said Sunday.

Salah Abdeslam had claimed that "he was ready to restart something from Brussels, and it's maybe the reality," Foreign Minister Didier Reynders said.

Reynders gave credence to the suspect's claim because "we found a lot of weapons, heavy weapons in the first investigations, and we have seen a new network of people around him in Brussels."

Abdeslam, captured Friday in a police raid in Brussels, was charged Saturday with "terrorist murder" by Belgian authorities. He is a top suspect in the Nov. 13 attacks in Paris that left 130 people dead.

Abdeslam was wounded during the raid, and a senior Belgian police official said that he was shot in the leg as he ran toward officers outside an apartment in the Molenbeek neighborhood.

The head of Belgium's special federal police unit, Roland Pacolet, told broadcaster RTL that one hypothesis being studied by police was that the suspect wanted to commit suicide.

"When someone comes out running toward the police, we have to ask ourselves some questions. What did he have in mind? What was he going to do? Either he wanted to get killed by the police, or he wanted to blow himself up near the police," Pacolet said.

He said that Abdeslam was unarmed.

Speaking to security experts at a German Marshall Fund conference in Brussels, the foreign minister said "we have found more than 30 people involved in the terrorist attacks in Paris, but we are sure that there are others."

Reynders urged European intelligence, law enforcement, and border authorities to exchange more information to help track the suspects down.

Interpol also has called on European countries to be vigilant at their borders, saying Abdeslam's accomplices may try to flee after his capture. The international police agency recommended closer checks at borders, especially for stolen passports. Many of the Nov. 13 attackers and accomplices traveled on falsified or stolen documents

Abdeslam's Belgian lawyer, meanwhile, threatened to launch legal action Monday against a French prosecutor, accusing him of breaching the confidentiality of the investigation into the deadly rampage in Paris.

Sven Mary told Belgian public broadcaster RTBF that part of the press conference given on Saturday by Paris prosecutor Francois Molins "is a violation. It's a fault, and I cannot let it go unchallenged."

Molins said Abdeslam, 26, told Belgian officials he had "wanted to blow himself up at the Stade de France" as a suicide bomber, but that he backed out at the last minute.

France is seeking Abdeslam's extradition for trial there, but Mary said he would fight any attempt to hand over his client and that investigators have much to learn from the suspect, who was born in Belgium but has French and Moroccan nationality.

"Salah is of great importance to this investigation. I would even say that he is worth gold. He is cooperating, he is communicating, he is not insisting on his right to silence. I think it would be worthwhile now to give things a bit of time ... for investigators to be able to talk to him," Mary said.

In response, an official in the Paris prosecutor's office said French law allows prosecutors to speak about elements of an investigation. The official spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not allowed to discuss this issue publicly.

Belgian Justice Minister Koen Geens was cautious about how the legal proceedings will unfold against the suspect, but said the kind of extradition procedure being used would limit the possibilities for Abdeslam to appeal.

"It could take two months, two and a half months, and we will not be certain of the result before then," Geens said on RTL television.

The next official step in the legal process comes Wednesday when Abdeslam faces court in Brussels.

The suspect, who could be one of the rare jihadis to face trial and possibly speak during proceedings, awoke Sunday after his first night in a prison just outside the city of Bruges, western Belgium.

The prison has a special section for high-profile prisoners, with specially trained guards. Cells have double doors and any furniture or equipment is attached to the floor.

Abdeslam was shot in the leg Friday along with a suspected accomplice when they were captured during an anti-terror raid in Brussels. He was found at an apartment a mere 500 yards from his parents' home, where he grew up.
 

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World | Mon Mar 21, 2016 3:36am EDT
Related: World

North Korea fires short-range projectiles into sea amid tension over nuclear ambitions

SEOUL


North Korea fired five short-range projectiles into the sea off its east coast on Monday, South Korea's military said, amid heightened tension over the isolated country's nuclear and rocket programs.

The unidentified projectiles were launched from south of the city of Hamhung and flew about 200 km (120 miles), landing in waters east of North Korea, South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff said in a statement.

On Friday, North Korea fired two mid-range ballistic missiles into the sea in defiance of tough new U.N. and U.S. sanctions slapped on the country following nuclear and rocket tests earlier this year.

In recent weeks, North Korea has stepped up its bellicose rhetoric, threatening pre-emptive nuclear strikes against Washington and Seoul and firing short-range missiles and artillery into the sea.

The North protests annual ongoing joint U.S.-South Korea military drills.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un said last week that the country would soon test a nuclear warhead and ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads in what would be a direct violation of U.N. resolutions that have the backing of Pyongyang's chief ally, China.


(Reporting by Jumin Park and James Pearson; Editing by Nick Macfie)
 

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Belgium: Europe's front line in the war on terror

By Nima Elbagir, Bharati Naik and Laila Ben Allal, CNN
Updated 2:57 AM ET, Mon March 21, 2016

Belgium (CNN) — Brussels: It's a quaint but bustling city, famed for its picture postcard squares, its chocolate and its beer. But it is rapidly becoming infamous, too, as a fertile recruiting ground for jihadi fighters.

According to police, the carnage of the Paris attacks was plotted here, and it was in these streets that fugitive Salah Abdeslam hid out in an apartment after abandoning his mission, dumping his suicide belt in a Parisian street and calling friends for help, after apparently driving his co-conspirators to their deaths.

That Abdeslam was caught at all appears to have been an enormous stroke of luck. Despite a massive security operation, the trail appeared to have gone cold, until police, initiating a search for evidence at Abdeslam's safe house on Tuesday, encountered a barrage of gunfire which tipped them off that something -- or someone -- important was inside.

Abdeslam and another man are believed to have escaped while a fellow suspect distracted police; he was eventually shot dead but by then Abdeslam had fled, across the rooftops.

Three days later, on Friday, officers finally cornered him in a daring daytime raid on another apartment, bringing to an end an international manhunt that had lasted more than four months.

But authorities here still don't know what if there are any other terror plans in the works, even with Abdeslam himself finally captured alive and charged, awaiting extradition to France.

READ: Salah Abdeslam, Europe's 'most wanted'

Hotbed of jihadist ideology

Belgium remains wary and on edge, its alert level stuck at "grave" -- the second highest stage -- with security forces warning of a very real threat of attack.

In the past several weeks, CNN went to Molenbeek, a working-class district that has found notoriety as a hotbed of violent jihadist ideology, to find out what -- if anything -- had changed since the bloodshed in Paris four months ago.

It took months to coax people to meet with us. Many had received threats from self-proclaimed extremists directly to their mobile phones, warning them against speaking to the media.

Belgian officials have been unable to quell the flow of fighters traveling to ISIS territory, and -- perhaps more worryingly, authorities are terrified the fighters will bring another Paris-style attack -- back to Europe.

Brussels is just a short drive away from a host of major cities: Paris, of course, but also Amsterdam, Cologne, Strasbourg, Frankfurt, Berlin; hop into a car or onto a train and almost anyone can travel between any number of European cities within a few hours. Only recently, especially after the Paris attacks, did some European nations begin implementing immigration checks.

Per capita, Belgium has the highest number of foreign fighters in Syria of any Western European nation. Experts say nearly 500 men and women have left Belgium for Syria and Iraq since 2012.

At the same time, they say more than 100 Belgians have returned home from ISIS territory-- many facing immediate arrest.

But everyone CNN spoke to admits these numbers err on the conservative side; no one knows for certain exactly how many have gone and how many have returned.

READ: From Antwerp to Aleppo -- and back


ISIS recruiting new members

Belgium's Interior Minister Jan Jambon told us the security forces' work to counter terrorist threats is having an impact, but admits ISIS recruiters are still able to ply their extremist trade in Belgium.

"Recruitment continues -- at a much lower level than we were used to, for example two years ago -- but yes, it continues," he says. "It is difficult to find the people that are [responsible] -- you can do it in a small room in every house."

Family and community members brave enough to try and stop the radicalization open themselves up to threats -- and the possibility of worse.

"We live in an era where everybody that tries to speak out and stand up for the truth will find people trying to stop him from doing so," says Belgian Imam Sheikh Sulayman Van Ael.

For Van Ael, a convert who is outspoken on the issue of jihadism, the dangers are very real; we meet in secret, his bodyguard hovering nearby throughout our conversation.

But he insists: "I am not afraid ... I am taking precautions, but I don't hide -- I get out, I walk around. Whatever has to happen will happen. It's not a nice feeling knowing that people are like that. But it doesn't frighten me."

Imams, he says, must be willing to contest the Islamic justifications being used by ISIS and their ilk.

READ: Arrest of Abdeslam is turning point

Sense of marginalization

Geraldine Henneghien also took the risk to speak to us. Her son Anis is one of those who was recruited to the ISIS cause; he was later killed in Syria.

For her the threats have become a reality of life like any other; when we ask whether she's afraid, she laughs bitterly: "What else can I lose? I've already lost my son. They can't do anything more to me."

Henneghien says recognizing the clues that someone is being radicalized is not easy.

"Every sign is different, and when you look at them separately they don't look like signs of radicalization," she explains. "But when you see the whole picture, you realize that these are signs, that they are part of the recruitment process."

Ali (not his real name) agreed to speak to us on condition of anonymity. He sobbed as he told of how two of his brothers, members of radical Islamist group Sharia4Belgium, made the trip to Syria, where one was killed on the front line.

He believes discrimination and a "lack of opportunities" in Belgium has driven many young men into harm's way because they simply don't feel accepted at home -- jihadi recruiters exploit this sense of marginalization.

"The Belgian state rejects children and young people; they say, 'They are all foreigners, why should we give them a job?' They fill us with hate, and they say we aren't of any use, so when young people see what's going on over there [in Syria], they think 'Well OK, let's go there and be useful.'"

READ: Mapping ISIS attacks around the world

Turning a blind eye

Ali believes the Belgian security services are turning a blind eye to people going to Syria as a way of getting rid of them: "They wanted to get rid of these youngsters by letting them go."

He accepts that his brothers were ultimately responsible for their own actions, but thinks more could have been done to stop them.

Henneghien says she went as far as reporting her own son to the police in an attempt to block him leaving the country -- to no avail.

"Two weeks before he left, I went to the police and said 'My son is going to catch a plane on this particular day to leave for Syria,'" she told us.

Concerned he could be a member of a terrorist network, a magistrate added Anis to a watch list, but he still managed to get out of the country.

"The day my son left, I went to the police to tell them and they didn't do anything," Henneghien recalls clearly. "They told me: 'Your son is not a minor, so we can't do anything ... He is allowed to go wherever he wants, whenever he wants.'"

Anis was 18 when he left Belgium in 2014. The following year, she says, she was told he had been killed in Syria.

Nothing can bring her son back, but Henneghien argues that Belgium should be doing more to encourage other young men and women like him to return home.

"The message of the authorities is: 'OK, you left so do not come back.' They don't help us recover our children, they just leave them there," she says.

"Instead of telling them, 'We will talk to you while [you're] in prison about your motivation ... and later we will help you be part of this society again,' we give them the message, 'No, do not come back -- if you do, you will be imprisoned forever.'"

Jambon insists the government is working hard to prevent radicalized youngsters leaving the country, but admits it still has work to do.

"One-and-a-half years ago, we had 15 persons per month leaving for Syria or Iraq, now it's less than five. Five is too much, I am aware of that ... If you see that people are still leaving to join ISIS, we didn't do enough. That's clear. The aim, the goal, is zero people."

But Montasser Al De'emeh, founder of a Brussels-based deradicalization center, says there's only so much anyone can do to stop someone truly determined to leave.

"You can't stop people from leaving by force," he says. "It's impossible for this to be the solution. There are people who were barred from leaving and jailed; after eight years they were released and they managed to leave."

Instead, he says, "You stop people from leaving by helping them build a future, by helping them understand who they really are."

READ: How the ISIS fight went global

Heavy-handed response

Ali's surviving brother did eventually return to Belgium, where he was jailed. But Ali says the entire family has been left feeling like criminals after armed police investigating the pair's radicalization raided the family home as his wife, children and mother slept.

"It was like a hold-up, like something from the movies ... There were 10 of them, maybe more, and they aimed guns at us all ... Why so much violence? They found nothing, no weapons, no explosives, nothing. But the way they came into our house was as if we were armed from tip to toe."

He says the security forces heavy-handed actions have been counterproductive, turning the family and their friends and neighbors against the authorities: "This has only filled us with hate."

Yassine Boubout, too, says the actions of the police and security personnel are provoking more and more Belgian Muslims to act against their own country. The 18-year-old student says he was the victim of racial profiling, treated "like a terrorist," and arrested at gunpoint as he tried to buy lunch.

"I grabbed my meal and before I got to the register they held a gun, a military weapon, in my face," he recalls. "They commanded me, 'Get on your knees now!'

"I kept asking 'What's happening? Why am I here? Please put the gun out of my face.' It was ready to fire, the [safety] was off and the finger was literally on the trigger -- one little move that would scare them and I am pretty sure I could be shot ... I was scared for my life."

After 20 minutes on his knees in the store, where he was a regular customer, Boubout says he was thrown into a police cell for more than three hours before being released without charge -- and without an explanation. A week later, he says he was told he'd been arrested because, "I looked like a suspect ... I fit the description and that was enough."

Boubout says such treatment "gives those people who recruit a weapon to use; they can [say] 'See, this society is a racist society, they don't want you here.' That's a key factor for them that they use."

READ: Belgium -- fertile ground for terrorism?

Racism a push factor

Jambon says the majority of young Muslims are well integrated into Belgian society, but admits his government has more to do to make some feel "at home" in their own country, given that a sense of alienation can leave them open to the threat of radicalization.

"We're talking about third- and fourth-generation [immigrants]; these youngsters are born in Belgium, even their fathers and mothers are born in Belgium, and still they are open for these kind of messages. This is not normal -- in the U.S., the second generation was the President; here, the fourth generation is an IS fighter -- so that is really something we have to work on."


Van Ael says Belgian Muslims must also do their part.

"There is no reason why you shouldn't feel Belgian -- this is the country you were raised in. This is the country where you have been fed, where you went to school, where you had your friends, where you practiced your sports. So why all of a sudden you don't feel Belgian?" he asks.

"There is no reason to feel like that. I believe that it is part of our Islam that we protect the country we were raised in and that we try to make the country we live in prosper."

But for those left behind by would-be jihadis, Ali has a stark warning. He says his brothers' decision to go to Syria -- and the Belgian authorities' treatment of those they left behind -- has "destroyed" his family.

"This has broken everything," he says, sobbing. "Our future looked bright but now nothing is left."

For those at the front lines of this battle everything is at stake.

CNN's Bryony Jones, Fred Pleitgen, Mick Krever and Paul Cruickshank contributed to this report.


 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.americanthinker.com/arti...fering_the_loss_of_us_nuclear_deterrence.html

March 21, 2016

Two Nations Suffering the Loss of U.S. Nuclear Deterrence

By Kaya Forest and Sierra Rayne
Comments 2

When Vladimir Putin invaded Crimea and other portions of eastern Ukraine in 2014, a suite of dominos began to fall in the West's nuclear deterrence strategy that had ¡V until then ¡V worked well for many decades.

Whatever your feelings on Putin, he will certainly be viewed by future historians as one of the master geopolitical strategists of the 21st century. Putin identified a key weak point in the West, and he struck at it with a killing stroke.

His view was that the West was fraudulently guaranteeing protection of various perimeter states under its nuclear umbrella, and that Western powers would never sacrifice one of their core population centers for an incursion against these hinterlands.

In this case, the hinterland was Crimea, long a part of the historical concept of Ukraine, but with enough Soviet and post-Soviet propaganda existing in the ether to allow for a plausible argument to be constructed that the region is an inherent part of Russia. You don't need to believe the tenuous argument, and most serious historians do not, but that was never the point ¡V the propaganda was not so outrageous as to be unbelievable on its face.

This intellectual reconstruction of the region's history was started long before the events of early 2014, and was done for one purpose: to ensure that if and when the time came to make the case for a move into eastern Europe, the fog of a propaganda war could be unleashed, and publics and politicians across the West would have difficulty deciphering the truth, assuming they wanted to. Russia has its agents of influence throughout the West, as we have ours embedded in Russia.

Once Russia began its moves into Crimea, weakness abounded in the West. No single major media outlet was advocating for NATO to move its forces into Ukraine to face the Russians. It was madness, they said, and would rapidly lead to nuclear war.

Nonsense.

Putin had no intention of starting a nuclear war with the West over something like Crimea. He was pushing to see what he could get away with and would have retreated his troops back into Russian territory and the Crimean underground had the West shown up quickly with ground forces. That is why Putin played the Crimean card with forces that were intended to look as though they arose without outside influence and from within Crimea. In case the West pushed back with military force, Putin could call off the invasion without any loss of Russian face.

Had he sent official Russian forces into the region, and then had his bluff called by NATO and been forced to retreat, Putin would have lost all geopolitical credibility. The concepts and purposes of agency apply from one-on-one business interactions in a free-market system up to the gamesmanship between the superpowers.

Putin won Crimea, and he's winning the rest of eastern Ukraine. But this is chump change on a global scale. The real goal is to take down the West's deterrence credibility. And that he did. Russia wants to recover the Soviet empire, but to do that, Putin realizes that his most important tactic is not to gain tiny pieces of territory on a slow, incremental basis, but rather to poke a hole through the Western alliance and let it slowly bleed to death. He needs the West to come back to Russia as much as Russia needs to accelerate to catch the West.

The main target of the Crimea excursion was the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances. Signed during late 1994, in it, the West ¡V using the United States and the United Kingdom as its representatives ¡V agreed, along with Russia, to preserve the territorial integrity of Ukraine as long as Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons and pledged not to develop any new ones in the future.

History shows what fools the Ukrainians were to believe the West's security guarantee. Two decades later, Russia took a substantial portion of Ukraine away from it and continues to fight for much of the rest.

Fast-forward two years, and many in South Korea are agitating to acquire nuclear weapons. This isn't a fringe movement for the lower half of the Korean peninsula. A full two thirds of the South Korean public support an indigenous nuclear weapons program, as do a number of current and former politicians and other leaders in the think-tank community.

Why wouldn't South Korea move immediately to acquire nuclear weapons? It is the only rational game. After what happened in Ukraine, can South Korea seriously believe that the West ¡V read: the United States ¡V would be willing to play the nuclear endgame and place itself on the existential chopping block over cities like Seoul?

Some in the West even advocate for a nuclear weapons-capable South Korea on two major grounds. The first is that, given the volatility of the region ¡V involving a divided people (much as Russia argues that Ukraine is merely a part of its former territory, necessitating inevitable reunification) ¡V the West should not be willing to trade its cities in any regional conflicts on the peninsula that could go nuclear. The second is that the West is broke and can barely afford to defend its own territory, never mind that of some distant Asian spit of land jutting into the far western Pacific Ocean.

Thus, the dominos start to fall. It isn't just South Korea ¡V although South Koreans' are the loudest voices. Pressure is building in Japan and elsewhere throughout the region to get into the nuclear weapons club. Despite outward denials, some nations in eastern Europe are also considering their own nuclear weapons programs behind the scenes. As are some in the Middle East.

This all could have been avoided by Ukraine calling for the introduction of a NATO rapid response force into Crimea two years ago to stare down the Russians and NATO granting such a request. Weakness is provocative, they say. Now look where we are. Ukraine's weakness was so odious, the incompetence so entrenched, that it is impossible to feel bad for its citizens, who entirely failed to build a strong and stable nation since the early 1990s. Putin was brilliant, and he took the easy prey sitting in front of him. In objective terms, he is to be congratulated for his victory.

If Ukraine's failures were its own alone, we could ignore them. But we can't.

The West tied itself to Ukraine in Budapest during December of 1994. It cannot untie the knot binding us without the fabric of the West's global deterrence network also unraveling, and unraveling rapidly it is.

The geopolitical "analysts" in the mainstream right-of-center media couldn't, or didn't want to, see the ultimate Russian strategy. Of course, with the money flowing out of Russia into the hands of the Western media in an attempt to manipulate public opinion on topics such as fracking and nuclear power, perhaps much of the deck is already stacked.

What is America to do? Give up entirely on its global nuclear deterrence and thereby force most of its allies to either go nuclear or form new alliances with Russia or China? Or should it attempt to rebuild its post-Crimea deterrence credibility? How will the latter option be done, short of attempting to roll back history and liberating Crimea and eastern Ukraine in the now, or through taking a stronger military stance in a current conflict elsewhere ¡V such as the South and East China Sea disputes?

The United States stands alone. Canada will not help, nor will Europe. Slowly but surely, the post-WWII alliances are crumbling as their individual societies succumb to decadence and naivety, coupled to an ignorance about history and the difficulties of building and maintaining a free world. Soon they will receive an education, and it will be a shock to the adult children currently in charge of the West. The time for real leadership will rise again, and hopefully it will not be too late.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
JPost: Hezbollah vows to attack US forces 'defending ISIS' in Iraq
Started by Possible Impact‎, Today 07:02 AM
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...ws-to-attack-US-forces-defending-ISIS-in-Iraq


Oh this is going to be real cute....

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.businessinsider.com/iran-backed-militia-demands-us-withdraw-from-iraq-2016-3

Iran-backed militia says it will 'deal' with US Marines in Iraq as 'forces of occupation'

Reuters
1h

An Iranian-backed militia said on Monday it said it would treat U.S. Marines deployed in Iraq to fight Islamic State as forces of occupation and "deal" with the foreign troops.

Washington said on Sunday a detachment of the 26th Marine Expeditionary Unit was in Iraq, bolstering efforts by the United States and a coalition of allies against Islamic State.

"If the U.S. administration doesn't withdraw its forces immediately, we will deal with them as forces of occupation," the Asaib Ahl al-Haq militia said on its TV channel, al-Ahd.

"The forces of occupation are making a new suspicious attempt to restore their presence in the country under the pretext of fighting their own creation, Daesh," the Shi'ite Muslim militia added, referring to an acronym for Islamic State, a ultra-hardline Sunni Muslim movement.
 
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Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.americanthinker.com/blog...ied_after_isis_attack_on_secret_firebase.html

March 21, 2016

Marine killed in Iraq died after ISIS attack on secret firebase

By Rick Moran
Comments 17

A detachment from the 26th Marine Expeditionary Unit has set up a secret firebase in northern Iraq to support operations of the U.S. and coalition forces fighting ISIS.

On Saturday, ISIS targeted the firebase, firing two rockets, one of which landed inside the base killing one Marine and wounding several others.

Initially, the Pentagon claimed that the Marine, Staff Sgt. Louis F. Cardin, of Temecula, California, was killed by "indirect fire" from ISIS. But it seems clear that ISIS saw the Marines moving into the firebase and fired directly into the base.

The existence of a combat unit in Iraq that could be targeted by ISIS was unknown until the rocket attack. The Pentagon claims it was going to announce the existence of the base sometime this week.

CNN:


The Pentagon has yet to formally acknowledge it has established its first U.S. fire base in Iraq in the current fight against ISIS for what the official said will eventually be a limited ground combat operation in support of the Iraqis.

The Marines will be using their field artillery guns in the coming weeks to help defend Iraqi troops as they move towards Mosul. For now, the artillery is to defend another nearby base where American troops are getting 5,000 Iraqi forces ready for the operation to retake Mosul.

The Marines first began moving into the area just two weeks ago from their own base of operations aboard an amphibious assault ship the USS Kearsarge, the defense official told CNN.

The Marines had finished setting up and testing their artillery just two or three days before the attack. There was a brief mention of a coalition fire base in a statement Saturday announcing the death of the Marine, but the official said the only troops there are American Marines and no other coalition forces.

On Sunday, the coalition announced that in consultation with the government of Iraq, the U.S. "has assigned a detachment of U.S. Marines from the 26th Marine Expeditionary Unit to the support of Iraqi Security Force and Coalition ground operations. The detachment from the 26th MEU will add to the Marines and Sailors currently in Iraq" supporting the effort against ISIS.

The Marines have already named the location "Fire Base Bell." The U.S has similar artillery at two other large Iraqi bases, but Bell is the only known fire base. That terminology signifies this is a small remote location designed to use its artillery to support infantry troops at forward locations.

Why the secrecy? Probably because President Obama had assured the American people many times previously that there would be no combat troops deployed to Iraq.

Of course, this puts a great big bullseye on the backs of those Marines, billeting them out in the middle of nowhere, making them highly vulnerable to ISIS artillery and rocket attacks.

It's one thing to have special operators assisting the Iraqis with training, lasing targets for U.S. warplanes, or assassinating high-value ISIS targets.

But Marines are lethal weapons. They are there to kill ISIS fighters and the fact that we are using one of our crack Marine outfits as part of this deployment changes the character of our intervention in Iraq.

__

Comments....

Terry L Walker • an hour ago

The problem is not which unit is fighting, conventional, Army, Marine or Special Operations: What is the strategy and where is the campaign plan that clearly defines a "Road to Victory"? What does success look like? How is success measured in the plan? What are the phases of the operation. What resources will be required to successfully execute the plan. Who IS The Enemy!

Soon we will mark the 15 year anniversary of this "Global War on Terrorism" yet nowhere have I seen a National Strategy that clearly, unambiguously declares our mission and endstate. During this same time; I was not just a casual observer. Having served many years, forward deployed, I could never gain the simple answers to my questions above. At the unit level, we knew exactly who we were fighting and our mission was to kill them. It's the Strategy that is lacking and we fail to DEMAND a coherent Strategy and Plan for destroying our Enemy!

Yes, much of our National Strategy will by necessity be classified. But, Americans need to know the "Overarching" blueprint that we are asked to execute and risk life and treasure for. So what is that Plan!

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patrioticsonuntildeath > Terry L Walker • 23 minutes ago

Another Bozo operation dictated by political interests instead of allowing the military to do what is necessary to win decisively.

I dream of the day the Washington calls in the heads of all military forces and says, "OK, guys. The only way to win is to set you free to come up with a plan to win decisively and then set you loose, with no political oversight."

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Sideshowjoe • an hour ago

Those Marines must be barefoot because Ocrappo promised us no boots on the ground....

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BoDeen > Sideshowjoe • an hour ago

Didn't you hear? All the infantry now wears Birkenstocks.
And MREs are all vegan.

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Lance Corvette • 2 hours ago

"It's one thing to have special operators assisting the Iraqis with training, lasing targets for U.S. warplanes, or assassinating high-value ISIS targets."

I fail to see the difference between that and ground combat. We're either engaged in combat with them or not. The author is only pointing out a question of degree.

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Drumlinfarmer • 2 hours ago

Did we ever get a declaration of war? Where's code pink?

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Allston • 2 hours ago

Not so secret, apparently.

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GeezerGeek > Allston • an hour ago

Only a secret kept from the American people. Thanks for the transparency, Barry!

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BoDeen • an hour ago

Baghdad O-bob-ma has assured us that there are no US combat troops in Iraq.

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Stefan Kristen • an hour ago

Moran,
"Indirect fire" doesn't meant that ISIS was out lobbing rocket into herds of mountain goats and happened to drop one on a Marine fire base. That would be a "miss". Indirect fire means that the target wasn't in the direct line of sight of the weapon. You make it sound like using the term "indirect fire" just means it was a lucky shot. Hardly!

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RMThoughts • an hour ago

We talk of fighting ISIS yet never once mentioning the fact that through our Middle Eastern allies are more than capable of strangling completely ISIS’ logistical lifelines and preventing the torrent of foreign fighters and arms from reinforcing ISIS positions in Syria and Iraq .

Instead of holding accountable US’ allies who are clearly underwriting ISIS’ continued and formidable fighting capacity as well as its expansion beyond Iraq and Syria’s borders, several times the committee agreed to work even closer with these allies in what is clearly a disingenuous war on ISIS. Fighting ISIS is but a pretext to remain involved in Syria, Iraq, and now Libya and Afghanistan.


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mhubb • 2 hours ago

so
we are setting up a base, but we do not setup defenses???
there are weapon systems that can shoot down rockets

and track where they came from to hit back at the site

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Shad_ow > mhubb • 32 minutes ago

Did they return fire? I would think not under the traitor's command. Barack has been arming and funding ISIS in his attempts to take out Assad. He wouldn't want to harm them.

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SupremeGalooty • 15 minutes ago

Rather than fight under Obama as Commander in Chief <:-(

I would take my chances with the Sodomites in Leavenworth

We have No Business sending our military ANYWHERE under this Bozo.

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SupremeGalooty > SupremeGalooty • 14 minutes ago

(My apologies to Bozo the Clown.)

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Pat Corcoran • 24 minutes ago

"Why the secrecy? Probably because President Obama had assured the American people many times previously that there would be no combat troops deployed to Iraq.

Of course, this puts a great big bullseye on the backs of those Marines, billeting them out in the middle of nowhere, making them highly vulnerable to ISIS artillery and rocket attacks.

It's one thing to have special operators assisting the Iraqis with training, lasing targets for U.S. warplanes, or assassinating high-value ISIS targets.

But Marines are lethal weapons. They are there to kill ISIS fighters and the fact that we are using one of our crack Marine outfits as part of this deployment changes the character of our intervention in Iraq."

- By our President lying about American involvement in Iraq he hopes to camouflage
the bullseye he placed on our troops that he continues to brag about withdrawing.

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boligat • 2 hours ago

At least the special operators are mobile.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://english.alarabiya.net/en/New...-rebels-agree-on-ceasefire-Officials-say.html

Yemen govt, militias agree on ceasefire: Officials

By AP Sanaa, Yemen
Sunday, 20 March 2016

Yemeni officials say Shiite militias and the internationally recognized government have agreed to begin a ceasefire for a week or two before their next round of negotiations.

The officials participated in talks on Sunday in Sanaa, the capital, between the rebels and UN envoy Ismail Ould Cheikh Ahmed. They say talks are expected to restart next month.

The officials said Houthis militias have agreed to implement a UN security council resolution which requires them to hand over weapons and withdraw from territory, including Sanaa.

All officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to brief reporters.

Previous attempts to implement a ceasefire in Yemen have failed to take hold on the ground, with each side accusing the other of immediately violating the terms.

Last Update: Monday, 21 March 2016 KSA 08:40 - GMT 05:40
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://in.reuters.com/article/turkey-kurds-idINKCN0WN0FB

World | Mon Mar 21, 2016 8:23pm IST
Related: World

Pro-Kurdish leader urges peace talks with Turkey, four soldiers killed

DIYARBAKIR, Turkey | By Seyhmus Cakan and Daren Butler


Turkey's Kurds on Monday marked the annual spring festival of Newroz with a call for the resumption of peace talks between the government and Kurdish militants, but four Turkish soldiers were killed in another rebel attack in the restive southeast region.

The appeal from the pro-Kurdish People's Democratic Party (HDP) for peace talks also coincided with a pledge from Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan to use all the country's military and intelligence might to crush terrorism following a spate of suicide bombings, two claimed by Kurdish militants.

Since last year's Newroz festival Turkey's mainly Kurdish southeast has seen a big upsurge in violence due to the collapse of a 2-1/2 year ceasefire in July between the Ankara government and militants of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK).

In the latest attack, PKK fighters launched a bomb attack on a military vehicle in the town of Nusaybin near the Syrian border, security sources said. The army said four soldiers were killed, while five soldiers and a police officer were wounded.

The attack came as Kurds marked the Newroz festival, a traditional rallying point for PKK supporters who on Monday waved party flags and pictures depicting their jailed leader Abdullah Ocalan as they gathered in a park on the outskirts of Diyarbakir, the region's largest city.

The revellers chanted "We will win by resisting!" "Long live Ocalan!" and "The PKK are the people, the PKK are here!" as music blared over the sound system.

"We are ready to take the initiative to return to the peace (talks) table," HDP co-leader Selahattin Demirtas said in a speech beneath pictures of Ocalan projected onto a screen.

"If they want to achieve a result by crushing with war and violence, bringing people to their knees, this will only bring chaos to our country," Demirtas told the crowd, which was smaller than in previous years.


ERDOGAN'S "CURSE"

At the 2015 Newroz celebrations, in a statement read out on his behalf, Ocalan had said the PKK's three-decade insurgency had become "unsustainable" and he had urged the rebels to hold a congress on laying down their weapons.

Since then fighting has returned to the peak levels of the 1990s, with hundreds killed across the southeast.

In Istanbul Erdogan, who regards the HDP as an extension of the PKK and wants to prosecute its lawmakers, warned against any attempt to stir up violence at the Newroz celebrations.

"I curse those who consider Newroz not as a festival but as (a time) for shedding blood," he said.

Turkish security fears have been fuelled by bombings which have killed more than 80 people in Ankara and Istanbul this year. Kurdish militants claimed the two suicide bombings in Ankara, though officials blamed Islamic State for a bombing that killed four people in Istanbul on Saturday.

Interior Minister Efkan Ala has said 200,000 members of the security forces are maintaining order across Turkey during Newroz, which is also celebrated in Iran and central Asia.

In Turkey this year celebrations have only been allowed in 18 of the country's 81 provinces due to the security problems.


(Writing by Daren Butler; Editing by Gareth Jones)
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-iraq-sadr-oil-idUSKCN0WN1S9

World | Mon Mar 21, 2016 1:03pm EDT
Related: World

Sadr wants Iraqis to get a share of country's oil revenue

BAGHDAD

Influential Iraqi Shi'ite Muslim cleric Moqtada al-Sadr urged followers demonstrating in Baghdad for a new government to also demand that politicians give every Iraqi a direct share of the nation's oil revenues.

Sadr's followers have been staging protests for about a month demanding a new government be formed with technocrats not affiliated with political parties in order to fight what they say is rampant corruption.

As well as repeating that rallying cry, keeping the pressure on Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, he demanded economic progress and for the country's petrodollars to reach ordinary citizens.

"Allocate a share for each Iraqi citizen from the oil revenues," he said in the televised speech detailing proposals to end graft, improve public services and revive the economy. He gave no detail on how this might be done.

Iraq, with crude oil reserves among the largest in the world, ranks 161 out of 168 in Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index in 2015.

Since Friday, the protesters have also been holding a sit-in at the gates of the Green Zone which houses government offices, the parliament and embassies.


(Reporting by Saif Hameed; Writing by Maher Chmaytelli; Editing by Alison Williams)
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...ed-for-NATO-noninterventionist-foreign-policy

Well this is going to get "interesting".....

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...icy-team-in-meeting-with-the-washington-post/

Post Politics

Trump questions need for NATO, outlines noninterventionist foreign policy

By Philip Rucker and Robert Costa March 21 at 4:30 PM
Comments 1840

This post has been updated.

Donald Trump outlined an unabashadly noninterventionist approach to world affairs Monday, telling The Washington Post's editorial board that he questions the need for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, which has formed the backbone of Western security policies since the Cold War.

The meeting at The Post covered a range of issues, including media libel laws, violence at his rallies, climate change, the NATO and the U.S. presence in Asia.

Speaking ahead of a major address on foreign policy later Monday in front of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, Trump said he advocates an aggressive U.S. posture in the world with a light footprint. In spite of unrest abroad, especially in the Middle East, Trump said the United States must look inward and steer its resources toward rebuilding domestic infrastructure.

[Anxious about Trump? Try being a foreign ambassador.]

"I do think it’s a different world today, and I don’t think we should be nation-building anymore," Trump said. "I think it’s proven not to work, and we have a different country than we did then. We have $19 trillion in debt. We’re sitting, probably, on a bubble. And it’s a bubble that if it breaks, it’s going to be very nasty. I just think we have to rebuild our country."

He added: "I watched as we built schools in Iraq and they’re blown up. We build another one, we get blown up. We rebuild it three times and yet we can’t build a school in Brooklyn. We have no money for education because we can’t build in our own country. At what point do you say, 'Hey, we have to take care of ourselves?' So, I know the outer world exists and I’ll be very cognizant of that. But at the same time, our country is disintegrating, large sections of it, especially the inner cities."

For the first time, Trump also listed members of a team chaired by Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-Ala.) that is counseling him on foreign affairs and helping to shape his policies: Keith Kellogg, Carter Page, George Papadopoulos, Walid Phares and Joseph E. Schmitz.

Trump praised George P. Shultz, who served as President Ronald Reagan's top diplomat, and was harshly critical of current secretary of state John F. Kerry. He questioned the United States’ continued involvement in NATO and, on the subject of Russia’s aggression in Ukraine, said America’s allies are "not doing anything."

"Ukraine is a country that affects us far less than it affects other countries in NATO, and yet we’re doing all of the lifting," Trump said. "They’re not doing anything. And I say: 'Why is it that Germany’s not dealing with NATO on Ukraine? Why is it that other countries that are in the vicinity of Ukraine, why aren’t they dealing? Why are we always the one that’s leading, potentially the third world war with Russia.' "

Trump said that U.S. involvement in NATO may need to be significantly diminished in the coming years, breaking with nearly seven decades of consensus in Washington. "We certainly can’t afford to do this anymore," Trump said, adding later, "NATO is costing us a fortune, and yes, we’re protecting Europe with NATO, but we’re spending a lot of money."

Trump sounded a similar note in discussing the U.S. presence in the Pacific. He questioned the value of massive military investments in Asia and wondered aloud whether the United States still was capable of being an effective peacekeeping force there.

“South Korea is very rich, great industrial country, and yet we’re not reimbursed fairly for what we do," Trump said. "We’re constantly sending our ships, sending our planes, doing our war games — we’re reimbursed a fraction of what this is all costing."

Asked whether the United States benefits from its involvement in the region, Trump replied, "Personally, I don’t think so." He added, "I think we were a very powerful, very wealthy country, and we are a poor country now. We’re a debtor nation."

Trump cast China as a leading economic and geopolitical rival and said the United States should toughen its trade alliances to better compete.

"China has got unbelievable ambitions," Trump said. "China feels very invincible. We have rebuilt China. They have drained so much money out of our country that they’ve rebuilt China. Without us, you wouldn’t see the airports and the roadways and the bridges. The George Washington Bridge [in New York], that’s like a trinket compared to the bridges that they build in China. We don’t build anymore. We had our day."

Trump began the hour-long meeting by pulling out a list of some of his foreign policy advisers.

"Walid Phares, who you probably know. PhD, adviser to the House of Representatives. He’s a counterterrorism expert," Trump said. "Carter Page, PhD. George Papadopoulos. He’s an oil and energy consultant. Excellent guy. The honorable Joe Schmitz, [was] inspector general at the Department of Defense. General Keith Kellogg. And I have quite a few more. But that’s a group of some of the people that we are dealing with. We have many other people in different aspects of what we do. But that’s a pretty representative group."

Trump said he plans to share more names in the coming days.

Kellogg, a former Army lieutenant general, is an executive vice president at CACI International, a Virginia-based intelligence and information technology consulting firm with clients around the world. He has experience in national defense and homeland security issues and worked as chief operating officer for the Coalition Provisional Authority in Baghdad following the invasion of Iraq.

Schmitz served as inspector general at the Defense Department during the early years of President George W. Bush’s administration and has worked for Blackwater Worldwide. In a brief phone call Monday, Schmitz confirmed that he is working for the Trump campaign and said that he has been involved for the past month. He said he frequently confers with Sam Clovis, one of Trump's top policy advisers, and that there has been a series of conference calls and briefings in recent weeks.

[Opinion: The foreign policy 'experts' who will flock to Trump should scare you]

Papadopoulos directs an international energy center at the London Center of International Law Practice. He previously advised the presidential campaign of Ben Carson and worked as a research fellow at the Hudson Institute, a conservative think tank in Washington.

Phares has an academic background, teaching at the National Defense University and Daniel Morgan Academy in Washington, and has advised members of Congress and appeared as a television analyst discussing terrorism and the Middle East.

Page, a graduate of the U.S. Naval Academy and now the managing partner of Global Energy Capital, is a longtime energy industry executive who rose through the ranks at Merrill Lynch around the world before founding his current firm. He previously was a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, where he focused on the Caspian Sea region and the economic development in former Soviet states, according to his company biography and documents from his appearances at panels over the past decade.

Trump’s meeting with The Post was on the record. An audio recording was shared by the editorial board, and a full transcript will be posted later Monday. Trump was accompanied to the meeting, which took place at The Post's new headquarters, by his campaign manager, Corey Lewandowski, and spokeswoman, Hope Hicks.



Read more:

What Republicans did 15 years ago to create Trump today

The Clinton team's playbook: Paint Trump as unfit to lead

---

Philip Rucker is a national political correspondent for The Washington Post, where he has reported since 2005.

Robert Costa is a national political reporter at The Washington Post.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
For those of us who lived the Cold War, the lack of these discussions in the public like back then know what we're missing.....Yes it is on Moyers' site and Lawrence has a "skew" but the author does bring up good points....HC

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://billmoyers.com/story/the-tri...ave-neglected-to-ask-presidential-candidates/

War & Peace

The Trillion Dollar Question the Media Have Neglected to Ask Presidential Candidates

The American people will be footing the bill — but, by and large, they haven't heard much about our country's planned trillion-dollar nuclear weapons upgrade.

By Lawrence Wittner | March 21, 2016

This post originally appeared at History News Network.

Isn’t it rather odd that America’s largest single public expenditure scheduled for the coming decades has received no attention in the 2015-2016 presidential debates?

The expenditure is for a 30-year program to “modernize” the US nuclear arsenal and production facilities. Although President Obama began his administration with a dramatic public commitment to build a nuclear weapons-free world, that commitment has long ago dwindled and died. It has been replaced by an administration plan to build a new generation of US nuclear weapons and nuclear production facilities to last the nation well into the second half of the 21st century. This plan, which has received almost no attention by the mass media, includes redesigned nuclear warheads, as well as new nuclear bombers, submarines, land-based missiles, weapons labs and production plants. The estimated cost? $1,000,000,000,000.00 — or, for those readers unfamiliar with such lofty figures, $1 trillion.

Critics charge that the expenditure of this staggering sum will either bankrupt the country or, at the least, require massive cutbacks in funding for other federal government programs. “We’re… wondering how the heck we’re going to pay for it,” admitted Brian McKeon, an undersecretary of defense. And we’re “probably thanking our stars we won’t be here to have to have to answer the question,” he added with a chuckle.

This nuclear “modernization” plan violates the terms of the 1968 nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, which requires the nuclear powers to engage in nuclear disarmament. The plan is also moving forward despite the fact that the US government already possesses roughly 7,000 nuclear weapons that can easily destroy the world. Although climate change might end up accomplishing much the same thing, a nuclear war does have the advantage of terminating life on earth more rapidly.

This trillion-dollar nuclear weapons buildup has yet to inspire any questions about it by the moderators during the numerous presidential debates. Even so, in the course of the campaign, the presidential candidates have begun to reveal their attitudes toward it.

On the Republican side, the candidates — despite their professed distaste for federal expenditures and “big government” — have been enthusiastic supporters of this great leap forward in the nuclear arms race. Donald Trump, the frontrunner, contended in his presidential announcement speech that “our nuclear arsenal doesn’t work,” insisting that it is out of date. Although he didn’t mention the $1 trillion price tag for “modernization,” the program is clearly something he favors, especially given his campaign’s focus on building a US military machine “so big, powerful and strong that no one will mess with us.”

His Republican rivals have adopted a similar approach. Marco Rubio, asked while campaigning in Iowa about whether he supported the trillion dollar investment in new nuclear weapons, replied that “we have to have them. No country in the world faces the threats America faces.” When a peace activist questioned Ted Cruz on the campaign trail about whether he agreed with Ronald Reagan on the need to eliminate nuclear weapons, the Texas senator replied: “I think we’re a long way from that and, in the meantime, we need to be prepared to defend ourselves. The best way to avoid war is to be strong enough that no one wants to mess with the United States.” Apparently, Republican candidates are particularly worried about being “messed with.”

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton has been more ambiguous about her stance toward a dramatic expansion of the US nuclear arsenal. Asked by a peace activist about the trillion dollar nuclear plan, she replied that she would “look into that,” adding: “It doesn’t make sense to me.” Even so, like other issues that the former secretary of state has promised to “look into,” this one remains unresolved. Moreover, the “National Security” section of her campaign website promises that she will maintain the “strongest military the world has ever known” — not a propitious sign for critics of nuclear weapons.

Only Bernie Sanders has adopted a position of outright rejection. In May 2015, shortly after declaring his candidacy, Sanders was asked at a public meeting about the trillion dollar nuclear weapons program. He replied: “What all of this is about is our national priorities. Who are we as a people? Does Congress listen to the military-industrial complex” that “has never seen a war that they didn’t like? Or do we listen to the people of this country who are hurting?” In fact, Sanders is one of only three US Senators who support the SANE Act, legislation that would significantly reduce US government spending on nuclear weapons. In addition, on the campaign trail, Sanders has not only called for cuts in spending on nuclear weapons, but has affirmed his support for their total abolition.

Nevertheless, given the failure of the presidential debate moderators to raise the issue of nuclear weapons “modernization,” the American people have been left largely uninformed about the candidates’ opinions on this subject. So, if Americans would like more light shed on their future president’s response to this enormously expensive surge in the nuclear arms race, it looks like they are the ones who are going to have to ask the candidates the trillion dollar question.


Lawrence Wittner

Dr. Lawrence Wittner is professor of history emeritus at SUNY/Albany. His latest book is a satirical novel about university corporatization and rebellion entitled What’s Going On at UAardvark?
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Talk about asking for it.....

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.i24news.tv/en/news/israe...tack-nuclear-reactors-in-next-war-with-Israel

Hezbollah leader threatens to 'attack nuclear reactors' in next war with Israel

By i24news
Published: 03/21/2016 - 09:51pm

Nasrallah said that he didn't envisage a war with Israel in the 'foreseeable future'

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has threatened that in the next war between the Lebanese Shi'ite group and Israel, his fighters will "hit Israel's nuclear reactors."

Speaking in an interview broadcast live on Lebanon's Al-Mayadeen, Nasrallah said: "If Israel carries out its threat to destroy cities and send Lebanon back decades, we have the right to hit any target, including nuclear facilities.

"We have a full list of targets in occupied Palestine, including nuclear reactors and biological research centers," Nasrallah continued.

"In the event of any war against Lebanon, Hezbollah will not abide by any restrictions or red lines," he continued. "The Israelis know that the resistance possesses effective missiles that can hit any point in occupied Palestine.

"I will not disclose what weapons the resistance has, but it is the right of the resistance, Lebanese army and people, and the armies of the region to possess weapons that enable them to defend their existence and sovereignty," Nasrallah added.

"How can Netanyahu have the right to possess a nuclear weapon while we don't have the right to possess a defensive weapon?"

The Hezbollah chief also played down assessments that Hezbollah is too embroiled in the Syrian civil war to be able to open a front against Israel as well.

"Some think that Hezbollah is preoccupied in Syria, but we have a team that is dedicated to the Israeli issue and everything the Israelis say," he insisted in the interview.

While Nasrallah said that he didn't envisage a war with Israel in the "foreseeable future," he nonetheless said that he couldn't rule the possibility out entirely.

He also said that Israel would not carry out any attack that might lead to a war "without a green light from the US."
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Hummm......

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.globalresearch.ca/syria-and-korea-the-logic-of-peace-and-war/5515577

Syria and Korea: The Logic of Peace and War

By Christopher Black
Global Research, March 21, 2016
New Eastern Outlook 20 March 2016

The bold initiative by the Russian government to withdraw some of its forces from Syria is a lesson in the use of limited military means to achieve limited political ends. With the finesse of a skilled surgeon, the Russian intervention saved the Syrian government from being overwhelmed by the NATO proxies attacking it, inflicted a fatal blow to the American attempt to achieve hegemony in the Middle East, enhanced Russian prestige in the world, and demonstrated that the economic warfare being waged against Russia by the USA, EU and Canada, has had no effect on either Russian determination to choose an independent foreign policy or the military means to put it into effect.

The confusion and consternation in the NATO block as they realise that, once again, they have been outwitted, is dramatic. Once again the western intelligence services have proved to be asleep at the wheel, and their government leadership mired in fantasies of their own creation. The embarrassed silence from Washington, which for months has been claiming that Russia was going to be bogged down and chewed up by the Syrian war, reflects the incompetence of its political leadership, from President Obama to the contenders for the Presidency in the current American elections. None of them know what to do, except react in frustration, a reaction that does not exactly lead to rational policies.

The achievement of the limited ceasefire a few weeks ago, forced on the Americans by the reality on the battlefield, set up the logic of this partial withdrawal. The withdrawal underscores the Russian and Syrian policy of achieving a satisfactory political settlement of the war, forces the western powers to support that policy, or be declared opponents of peace, yet, at the same time, gives Russia and Syria the flexibility to respond to any attempts to escalate the violence from whatever direction they may come.

The Russian defence ministry has stated that the remaining Russian air group will continue to provide air support to the Syrian forces and will continue to hit the groups that refuse to abide by the ceasefire or those determined to be “terrorist” groups, in fact the bulk of the forces attacking the Syrian people. Further the S400 air defence systems are to remain in place to cover the Russian forces remaining and to deter aggression from Turkey, Saudi Arabia or American forces. Yet, the withdrawal signals a clear de-escalation of the war and can be taken as an announcement that the enemy has been dealt a fatal blow.

This initiative was taken at the same time that Russia protested any further NATO military actions against Libya unless they had Security Council approval and at the same time that it joined China in calling for the Americans to reduce the pressure on North Korea and commit to a final and peaceful resolution of the conflict on the Korean peninsular. Unfortunately, both Russia and China have joined the United States in condemning North Korea’s attempts to defend itself with nuclear weapons against the threat of nuclear war coming from the United States.

This condemnation seems to be in reaction to the fear that North Korea’s defence doctrine will provoke the USA into launching a war that will affect all Asia or, at the least, give the Americans an excuse to put new anti-ballistic missile systems into south Korea which will threaten the security of not only North Korea but also China and Russia. Perhaps they have a valid point and perhaps there are other reasons unknown to us that prompted them to join in the virtual blockade of North Korea, but the injustice is blatant. All three nuclear powers are enhancing and building their own nuclear weapon systems; Saudi Arabia is making noises that it has nuclear weapons, along with Israel, without any reaction from the big three; and the government of North Korea is being threatened with continuing military exercises that threaten a immediate decapitation strike of its government and nuclear annihilation.

The current exercises being carried out in Korea are the largest ever conducted, involving over 300,000 soldiers, US aircraft carrier battle groups, nuclear submarines, B-2 bombers, Australian naval ships and, to add insult to injury, Japanese forces that attacked and occupied Korea in the Second World War and that helped the Americans to attack the north in 1950. The stated objective of the exercises is to practice Operation Plan 5015, the action plan to kill the Korean leadership, destroy its bases and invade and occupy the country. A first strike using nuclear weapons is a part of that plan.

No one denies that North Korea has reason to feel backed into a corner and no one denies that they have the right to defend themselves as Russia and China are doing against the same enemy. Logic and fairness dictate that imposing an economic blockade on North Korea is tantamount to war and that this can only have the effect of making North Korea even more desperate and determined to react. This reaction to the situation in Korea is in stark contrast to the reasoned approach Russia, with Chinese support, has taken in Syria or Russia’s handling of the on-going crisis in Ukraine.

It would seem obvious that the best way to reduce tension in Korea is to support North Korea in the same way that Syria has been supported, with some guarantee of its security and a diplomatic initiative to force the Americans to back down and come to terms with the government and people of the country. North Korea has stated time and again that all it wants is to be left alone and to have a peace treaty with the United States and a guarantee that it will not be attacked. Then it is prepared to consider eliminating its nuclear weapons systems.

The world breathes a sigh of relief that a peaceful resolution of the war in Syria has shifted from a dream to a distinct possibility but now we face the risk of world war in Asia. North Korea is Asia’s eastern flank. If it is destroyed and its territory occupied by the United States and Japan and other allies, can China and Russia have any doubt what will happen next? It would seem that North Korea is a natural ally of both, but evidently not.

Meanwhile, the world watches the American elections and what it sees is a Fellini film in which the most grotesque of humanity vie for power over the military forces now threatening the world. President Obama, the man who won the Nobel Peace Prize, is the same man who ordered the military operations in Korea. This is about as peaceful a leader as we can hope for in that militaristic nation. What comes next will be even worse. Surely, there must be an attempt to bring peace to Korea as in Syria. But for that to take place, the pressure on North Korea must be reduced, and its government treated with respect and dignity. The doors to dialogue must be opened, instead of slammed shut, so reason and goodwill can prevail over the fear and malevolence that now guide the actions of the big powers. In Syria, war turns toward peace but, in Korea, peace is threatened by war. Both have their logic; the logic of peace and war, but the world is weary of the logic of war.


Christopher Black is an international criminal lawyer based in Toronto, he is a member of the Law Society of Upper Canada and he is known for a number of high-profile cases involving human rights and war crimes, especially for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/opinon/2016/03/137_200747.html

Posted : 2016-03-20 17:19
Updated : 2016-03-20 18:04

N. Korea provocations

By Bruce E. Bechtol Jr.
Audio

Recent rhetoric emanating out of North Korea suggests that the isolated communist state will take violent action against its democratic neighbor to the South. Some pundits and academics have suggested that we should now be on the alert for large-scale violent conflict initiated by Pyongyang. But evidence based on past precedent indicates otherwise. The most likely action that we could see initiated by Pyongyang would be a small, violent provocation (violent meaning intended to cause casualties). North Korea has in fact conducted a number of violent provocations over the years ¯ and I will thus discuss the aspects of these provocations, and the most likely scenarios during which they could occur.

Violent provocations conducted by the North Koreans over the past 40 years (to include cyber/electronic warfare attacks) have four things in common:

1) They are intentionally initiated during moments in history when they will have the likelihood of garnishing the most attention on the regional and perhaps even the world stage

2) They always appear to be incidents that are small, easily contained, and quickly "resolved."

3) They have involved always changing tactics and techniques.

4) North Korea denies responsibility for the event.

Without exception, North Korea's provocations have followed this trend. There are four likely scenarios for provocations Pyongyang could initiate in coming days or weeks.

Likely Scenario 1: Northern Limit Line Attacks:

Since 1999, North Korea has repeatedly initiated violent attacks in the Northern Limit Line area off of the west coast of the Korean Peninsula. This area serves as the de facto "maritime DMZ" between the two Koreas, and has been the scene of violent acts numerous times between 1999 and 2010. Provocations have included naval battles, artillery attacks, and submarine attacks. Future scenarios could include Special Operations Forces attacks on one of the five ROK islands in the area ¯ to include attacks on civilians.

Likely Scenario 2: DMZ Attacks.

North Korea has initiated numerous violent attacks (meant to inflict casualties) against both South Korean and US forces along the DMZ. The most recent attack was during the summer of 2015, when two ROK soldiers were badly wounded from mines planted on their side of the DMZ by North Korean Special Forces.

Likely Scenario 3: Cyber/Electronic Warfare Attacks.

North Korea has initiated numerous cyber-attacks against South Korean targets. These attacks have focused on government web sites, systems for radio and television networks, and NGO's who have spoken out against North Korean policies. In addition, North Korea has jammed GPS communications on civilian aircraft (hundreds of them) flying into Incheon airport (the international airport that serves Seoul). All of these attacks have proven to disrupt activities in South Korea ¯ though none have been deadly to date. These attacks ¯ both cyber and EW ¯ have occurred in recent years (within the past three years), and are the newest form of North Korean low level, asymmetric prevocational behavior. While cyber-attacks against the South can be considered almost routine now, large scale attacks against a number of high value targets, conducted simultaneously, have the potential to cause serious disruption in ROK government and society.

Likely Scenario 4: Terrorist Attacks/Assassination Attempts.

While these attacks have received little attention outside of the Korean Peninsula in recent years, they continue to exist. There have been attempts to assassinate high-ranking defectors in Seoul (in the past 10 years), and attempts to kidnap defectors in Europe (in the past 24 months) to bring them back to North Korea that have been confirmed. Further, the capability of Reconnaissance General Bureau personnel to carry out either assassination attempts or acts of terror (eg; gas attacks) has been confirmed in open channels and would likely be at least partially successful should Kim Jong-un decide to authorize this activity.

Proposed Policy Solutions: The United States needs to support its ally in Seoul by fully cooperating on anti-provocation measures. Further, it is important to make predictive statements about this activity, and to note that it often occurs during annual ROK-US exercises that take place in late February to mid-March (or soon after they conclude). North Korean violent, low-level provocations can and should be treated the same as nuclear tests or long-range missile launches. That is to say, they should be responded to with swift, robust actions that will send a message to North Korea that the United States will not tolerate Pyongyang's rogue state behavior and fully supports counter-measures taken by our key ally in Seoul.

Bruce E. Bechtol Jr. is a professor of political science at Angelo State University, and is the author or editor of six books on North Korea, most recently "North Korea and Regional Security in the Kim Jong-un Era: A New International Security Dilemma." Contact him at bruce.bechtol@angelo.edu.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.stripes.com/news/chinese-ship-near-indonesia-further-stokes-pacific-tensions-1.400273

Chinese ship near Indonesia further stokes Pacific tensions

By Erik Slavin
Stars and Stripes
Published: March 21, 2016

China’s coast guard intervened Sunday following the arrest of Chinese fishermen in Indonesian coastal waters, a signal that it may be ratcheting up an aggressive pursuit of South China Sea territorial claims that has drawn sharp criticism from the United States and several of its Asian allies.

Around 2 a.m., the Chinese coast guard vessel approached the fishing boat. Indonesian law enforcement had boarded it the previous day and detained the crew on suspicion of illegal fishing while it was just 2.7 miles from the shoreline of Indonesia’s Natuna Islands, Minister of Fisheries and Maritime Affairs Susi Pudjiastuti told the Jakarta Globe on Sunday.

The coast guard vessel then shoved the fishing vessel out of Indonesia’s territorial waters, according to the Globe report.

Security analysts who spoke with Stars and Stripes said Monday that some uncertainty remains over the location and sequence of events that occurred, as is often the case with preliminary reports.

However, analysts say this much is clear: The incident shows China has no intention of backing off its ambiguous claim to about 90 percent of the South China Sea, or heeding U.S. calls to cease new activities around disputed territories.

China responded indignantly to Indonesia’s version of events, stating Sunday the vessels had been operating in “traditional Chinese fishing grounds.”

Susi, a popular figure in Indonesia for her orders to blow up foreign vessels fishing illegally with dynamite, said she had summoned China’s ambassador on Monday.

Thus far, China’s low-level showdowns at sea with nations like the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia and Japan have mostly occurred near uninhabited islands, or territories manned by military detachments.

The Natuna Islands have 76,000 residents, according to Indonesian figures.

If the Chinese vessels were as close as Indonesian officials claim, there is no way the Chinese coast guard wouldn’t have known they were operating within Indonesian waters, said Euan Graham, director of the international security program at the Lowy Institute, an Australian think tank.

The latest incident “suggests that either the command-and-control of the Chinese coast guard has really come under a lot more challenges than we expected, or else this is a deliberate testing of resolve,” Graham said.

If it is a test, it isn’t one limited to just Indonesia. It is also directed toward the U.S. and China’s regional neighbors, analysts said.

In February, Pacific Command chief Adm. Harry B. Harris told Congress that China is “clearly militarizing” the South China Sea, and that its stance could threaten U.S. freedom of movement in a part of the world where $1.2 trillion in U.S. trade transits annually.

China’s rapid construction of military outposts on or near territories also claimed by Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan has alarmed many Asia-Pacific nations.

However, each of those governments wrestles with how to balance Beijing’s military assertiveness with its outsized role as an economic powerhouse.

The Natuna incident could represent a tipping point for Indonesia.

Indonesia President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo has primarily focused on domestic issues since his election in 2014, and Chinese investment in infrastructure has been a significant part of that, said Aaron Connelly, a Lowy Institute researcher focused on Indonesia and the U.S security role in Southeast Asia.

However, Jokowi also campaigned on making Indonesia a “strong state” — one that wouldn’t tolerate foreign abuse of its natural resources, which is a sore spot among Indonesians.

Jokowi may have to choose between invoking China’s ire and sticking up for a point of national pride.

“He is now being forced to make a decision he didn’t want to make,” Connolly said.

The Chinese Embassy in Jakarta’s statement appeared to anticipate Jokowi’s dilemma. It called for Indonesia to handle the incident “taking into consideration the overall picture of our bilateral relations.”

The Natuna incident could also hand a greater voice to figures within the Indonesian military who have expressed concerns over China’s military — which could in turn draw Indonesia’s military closer to the U.S. orbit.

Indonesia conducts exercises with China, but its work with the United States includes jungle warfare, anti-terrorism and a host of higher-quality exchanges, said Natalie Sambhi, a research fellow at the Perth USAsia Center.

“The military-to-military relationship with China is much more nascent, whereas Indonesia is a much more established customer of American military platforms,” Sambhi said.

Sambhi noted that China and Indonesia have had tense maritime encounters between 2010 and 2013 that were downplayed by Indonesia. This time, Susi called a press conference the same day.

The latest incident could mean more resources for the navy and air force, Sambhi said, though this would require assent from Indonesia’s much more politically powerful army.

A stronger navy would be welcomed by the U.S. 7th Fleet, which operates out of the Asia-Pacific and actively courts support from other militaries to uphold its positions on freedom of navigation in the South China Sea.

slavin.erik@stripes.com
Twitter: @eslavin_stripes
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.cnn.com/2016/03/21/politics/second-attack-us-firebase-iraq/index.html

Second attack on U.S. firebase in Iraq

By Barbara Starr, CNN Pentagon Correspondent
Updated 4:33 PM ET, Mon March 21, 2016

Washington (CNN) — For the second time in three days, the first U.S. military firebase in Iraq has come under attack from ISIS. The base, known as Firebase Bell, came under small arms fire from a group of about 10 ISIS fighters who also attacked a nearby U.S./Iraqi installation at Makhmur in northern Iraq.

No U.S. personnel were wounded, and at least two ISIS fighters were killed, according to Army Col. Steve Warren, the coalition spokesman. Warren said he didn't have an exact distance of how close the gunmen came to the U.S. security perimeter, saying only "a couple of hundred meters, I would assume."

The remaining attackers "ran away in fear," Warren said.

A U.S. Marine stationed at Firebase Bell was killed by an ISIS Katyusha rocket attack on Saturday. Eight U.S. troops were also wounded in the attack. Three were medivaced to Germany where one is described as having serious injuries a defense official told CNN.

The U.S. believes the firebase was deliberately targeted by ISIS fighters who were aware it was there, Warren said. He noted the helicopters bringing in troops and equipment were readily visible. But the defense official noted that there are several ways ISIS could have learned the Marines were there, "You can't hide 200 Marines," the official said.

The U.S. currently has between 4,500 and 5,000 troops in Iraq on a regular basis, about 1,000 over the stated limit. This includes the 200 Marines that are at the firebase along with 200 special operations forces whose presence is not publicly acknowledged the official said.

The coalition refused to publicly reveal the exact number of U.S. troops currently in Iraq, with Warren only telling reporters that it was within 3,870 troops. "There's been a decision made not to release that number," he said.

Warren added that Congress had been informed of the methodology the military used to calculate troop levels.

On Sunday, the coalition announced that in consultation with the government of Iraq, the U.S. "has assigned a detachment of U.S. Marines from the 26th Marine Expeditionary Unit to the support of Iraqi Security Force and Coalition ground operations. The detachment from the 26th MEU will add to the Marines and Sailors currently in Iraq" supporting the effort against ISIS."

The U.S has similar artillery at two other large Iraqi bases, but Bell is the only known firebase. That terminology signifies this is a small remote location designed to use its artillery to support infantry troops at forward locations.

The Marines will be using their field artillery, including the M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System, in the coming weeks to help defend Iraqi troops as they move towards Mosul. For now, the artillery is to defend another nearby base where American troops are getting 5,000 Iraqi forces ready for the operation to retake Mosul.

CNN's Ryan Browne contributed to this report
 

Housecarl

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For links see article source.....
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http://news.yahoo.com/militants-storm-somalia-army-claim-many-killed-110439467.html

Militants storm Somalia army base, claim many killed

AFP
15 hours ago

Mogadishu (AFP) - Islamic insurgents stormed a Somali military base outside the capital Mogadishu early Monday, claiming to have inflicted heavy casualties.

The fighting broke out at Laanta-Buro military base about 40 kilometres (25 miles) south-west of Mogadishu soon after midnight with witnesses saying fighters from the Al-Qaeda-affiliated Shebab overran the camp.

"Hundreds of Shebab fighters have stormed the base and there was very heavy fighting. The militants looted the army depots and set fire to the camp," said Ali Muktar, a resident of a nearby village.

Somali military official Abdulahi Ibrahim confirmed the attack. "There was heavy fighting at Laanta-Buro last night but I cannot elaborate on casualties," he said.

In a message broadcast on Shebab radio and published on sympathetic websites the Islamists claimed to have killed "73 government soldiers" and captured vehicles, weapons, ammunition and equipment including seven "technicals", the machine gun mounted battlewagons popular in Somalia.

"The Mujahedeen fighters have successfully stormed and destroyed Laanta-Buro military base, thanks to God," the Shebab said on its Radio Andalus station.

However, the government disputed the claim saying that it had in fact fought off the assault.

"The violent elements attacked Laanta-Buro military base and the army repelled them, their dead bodies are strewn around here and the army is chasing them," said Ahmed Absuge Abdulle, a senior military commander.

In the last year Shebab has stepped up its attacks on isolated military bases, overrunning camps manned by Ugandan, Burundian and Kenyan troops deployed as part of the African Union peace-enforcement mission, AMISOM, and killing scores of soldiers each time.

The Shebab was ousted from Mogadishu in August 2011 and has since lost much of the territory it once held. Today, it concentrates on guerrilla attacks in the Somali countryside, bombings and suicide raids in towns and cities.

Shebab attacks have increased in tempo recently, seen as an attempt to destabilise the internationally-backed government ahead of an election due later this year.

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Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
3/22/16: Reported explosions at Brussels airport in Belgium
Started by Heliobas Discipleý, Today 12:44 AM
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...ted-explosions-at-Brussels-airport-in-Belgium

Up to page 8 at this moment.....
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...plosions-at-Brussels-airport-in-Belgium/page8

___


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Posted for fair use.....
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articl...europe.html?via=newsletter&source=CSAMedition

RELENTLESS
03.22.16 3:00 AM ET

Brussels Terror Attacks Bring Guerrilla War to the Heart of Europe

Coordinated attacks on Brussels this morning may signal the start of an ISIS-led guerrilla warfare campaign in the West.

Christopher Dickey

PARIS — As explosions rocked the airport and the metro in Brussels this morning, fears grew that the threat of terrorism is morphing into the threat of guerrilla war in Europe.

The attacks, which killed more than 20 people, came four days after the arrest in Brussels of Salah Abdeslam, a member of the terrorist cell that attacked Paris cafés, a sports stadium, and a concert hall in November, slaughtering 130 people. On Sunday, the Belgian foreign minister warned that Abdeslam was planning a new attack.
GALLERY: Scenes From Brussels’ Day of Terror (PHOTOS)

Emmanuel Dunand/Getty
Some reports suggest that this attack, clearly coordinated in the style of the Paris carnage, was what was in the works, and went ahead without Abdeslam. It was known that at least two of his associates were still on the run. ISIS claimed responsibility for the attacks.

French Prime Minister Manuel Valls said it was clear Europe was no longer simply the victim of a series of isolated terror attacks. “We have been subjected for the last few months in Europe to acts of war,” he said. “We are at war.”

As French scholar Gilles Kepel has pointed out, the self-proclaimed Islamic State, or ISIS, which carried out the Paris attacks and which presumably was involved in today’s bombings, is following a playbook written more than a decade ago: The Call for an International Islamic Resistance by Abu Musab al Suri, a Syrian jihadi.

Suri knew Europe well. He had lived for a while in Britain, in the community of Arab and Muslim exiles there. His core idea was that Muslims in the West, though increasingly numerous, felt themselves isolated and under pressure, and this could be exploited to create a breakdown of society, develop insurgency, and launch a civil war where the forces of Islam eventually would be victorious.

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• Dozens Killed, Hurt In Blasts At Brussels Airport And Subway Station
• London Police Preparing For Chance Of 10 Coordinated Terror Attacks
• Paris Terror Suspect Salah Abdeslam Captured In Brussels

Acts of terror, dubbed “resistance,” would heighten the already existing “Islamophobia,” and “exacerbate the contradictions,” as communist revolutionaries used to say, until hatred and suspicion ran high and integration became impossible.

Since the Nov. 13 atrocities, that process has been taking shape, with increased resentment and fear linked to the coincidental mass influx of refugees from the Middle East. Indeed, the impact of these atrocities has reached the United States political scene and has been exploited extensively by presidential candidate Donald Trump.

Today’s attack began near the check-in desks at Brussels Airport. Two explosions in the departure hall killed at least 13 people and injured more than 30 others. The public prosecutor in Brussels has confirmed that one of those two blasts was detonated by a suicide bomber.

Video footage from the scene showed chaos as survivors scrambled to safety. Zach Mouzoun, who had just arrived at the airport on a flight, told local television that the second explosion cracked pipes, mixing water with victims’ blood as the ceiling fell in. “It was atrocious. The ceilings collapsed,” he said. “There was blood everywhere, injured people, bags everywhere.”

“We were walking in the debris. It was a war scene,” he said.

Anna Nelson, an American citizen, had just arrived at the airport on a flight from Washington, D.C., when the explosives were detonated. The first she knew of it was someone yelling: "Run!"
“Hundreds of people started running in the same direction,” she told The Daily Beast.

There was an order to evacuate the airport over the loudspeaker, but the exit was blocked by emergency crews. Eventually they made their way outside where shocked crowds traded what they’d heard from security officials. "There was a man wandering around with blood on his face, hands, and clothes. Windows of a tower were visibly blown out and as the hours went by, more and more heavily armed police arrived,” she said.

“We were told by a security guard that explosives had been found in the toilets. We heard the roof had collapsed and there were body parts everywhere near the check in area, especially near the area where a flight to the U.S. would have checked in.”

Soon after the airport was hit, a bomb blast interrupted the morning commute at Maalbeek metro station, which is close to the headquarters of the European Union and NATO. Belgian subway officials said 15 people were killed and an additional 55 injured in the subterranean attack.

Brussels shut down public access to its entire rail and air transport networks and raised the terror threat level to its highest. “What we feared has happened, we were hit by blind attacks,” said the Belgian Prime Minister Charles Michel.

Multiple U.S. and European officials in Brussels last weekend said they had been warned by their security and intelligence teams of the possibility of a follow-on attack in retaliation for the arrest of Paris fugitive Salah Abdesalam.

Officials were in town for the German Marshall Fund’s Brussels forum, where Foreign Minister Didier Reynders said they’d discovered Abdesalam had stockpiled weapons and built a new network to launch potential violence, news that chilled the already tense city even as officials there celebrated capturing the terror suspect alive after a four-month manhunt.

“He was ready to start something from Brussels,” Reynders told officials and diplomats Sunday.

“We found a lot of weapons, heavy weapons in the first investigations, and we have seen a new network of people around him in Brussels,” the minister said, adding that they’d been searching for 10 people, but found more than 30 people connected to the Paris attacks.

The fear was that reports from the Belgian prosecutor that Abdesalam was talking freely to Belgian interrogators would prompt them to move up their timetable for violence.

U.S. intelligence and military officials believe that up to 1,500 foreign fighters from Syria have returned to Europe over the past 5 years, with some setting up cells to carry out ISIS-directed or -inspired attacks at a time of their choosing.

While there had been security throughout the city, both visible police and military presence, a Daily Beast reporter noticed little or no security at the main terminal of the airport Monday morning.

Mubin Shaikh, a Canadian terrorism expert, said it was inevitable that ISIS cells in Belgium would rush into an attack once Abdeslam had been captured “They were compromised because that guy got caught, and he was singing like a canary,” he told The Daily Beast. “Those people realized: ‘It’s now or never. We need to do it now.’”

“ISIS has declared war against Europe and the world, and it’s going to mobilize people it has in any country,” he said. “[With] the number of jihadis that Belgium has, not just in house but in Iraq and Syria, this is exactly what to expect.”

Whether or not it was directly linked to Abdesalam’s arrest, U.S. intelligence officials said that early signs pointed to ISIS as being the likely culprit of the attacks.

The bombings “bear all the hallmarks of an ISIS-inspired, or ISIS-coordinated, attack,” Rep. Adam Schiff, the senior Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee, said in a statement. “Europe is facing a real threat from the thousands who have traveled abroad to Syria and Iraq to train with ISIS, and have returned home. It is enormously difficult to track all of them, or defend soft targets like those attacked in Brussels and previously in Paris,” Schiff said.

Additional reporting by Kimberly Dozier in Brussels, Katie Zavadski in New York, and Shane Harris in Washington, D.C.
 

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European Command and NATO on High Alert after Brussels Terror Attacks

Mar 22, 2016 | by Richard Sisk
23 comments

U.S. European Command and NATO went on high alert Tuesday in response to the terror bomb attacks on the Brussels airport and Metro subway system that killed at least 30 people and injured hundreds more, including an American military family.

The command initially said all troops in the city were unharmed.

"At the present time, we have accounted for all our U.S. military members who were in the region at the time of the attacks," it said in a statement. "Again, these personnel are safe and all accounted for."

The command later confirmed that one American troop and five of his family members were hurt in the attacks. The injuries weren't life-threatening.

The Defense Department has about 1,300 military personnel and dependents and about 600 civilian employees in Belgium, which is home to the European Union and NATO.

Air Force Gen. Philip Breedlove, the head of EUCOM and NATO Allied Command Operations, arrived Tuesday morning in Tbilisi, the capital of Georgia. It wasn't immediately clear whether he would return to Europe.

At NATO headquarters in Brussels, Jens Soltenberg, secretary general of the alliance, said, "We have decided to increase the alert state at NATO Headquarters. We remain vigilant and continue to monitor the situation very closely."

At least three explosions ripped through the airport and the subway system in Belgium's capital, killing at least 28 and wounding more than 130.

Belgian media said the blast at the airport occurred near the American Airlines counters. About an hour after the airport explosion, there was a blast at the Maelbeek Metro station in central Brussels near the U.S. Embassy and European Union headquarters.

"We were fearing terrorist attacks, and that has now happened," said Belgian Prime Minister Charles Michel, referring to the arrest in Brussels last Friday of the suspected bomb-maker in the wave of terror attacks in Paris last November.

Paris, London and other European capitals also went on higher security alerts, fearing copycat attacks.

The European Command statement said the U.S. military in Europe was "working closely with our interagency partners and host nation counterparts to determine the appropriate steps to ensure the safety and security of all U.S. personnel."

Note: This story was updated to include a reference to an American military family being injured beginning in the first paragraph.

--Richard Sisk can be reached at Richard.Sisk@Military.com.
 

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Checkpoint

These are the new U.S. military bases near the South China Sea. China isn¡¦t impressed.

By Dan Lamothe March 21 „³
Comments 57

imrs.php

https://img.washingtonpost.com/wp-a...heckpoint-philippines0321-1024x724.jpg&w=1484


The disputed South China Sea will soon see increased U.S. military activity from five Philippine bases, following the signing of a deal between Manila and Washington that will allow the Pentagon to deploy conventional forces to the Philippines for the first time in decades.

The deal ¡X called an Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement ¡X was reached Friday between State Department officials and the government of the Philippines, and will allow the Pentagon to use parts of five military installations: Antonio Bautista Air Base, Basa Air Base, Fort Magsaysay, Lumbia Air Base, and Mactan-Benito Ebuen Air Base. It comes at a time when the United States and its allies in the region have expressed concern about China increasingly deploying military assets to man-made islands in the South China Sea.


Why China is militarizing the South China Sea
Play Video2:37


China has laid claim to a number of islands in the South China Sea, building airbases on tiny spits of land while installing powerful radar and missile launchers. Here's why. (Jason Aldag,Julie Vitkovskaya/The Washington Post)

State Department spokesman John Kirby, a retired two-star Navy admiral, said that the United States has ¡§made absolutely no bones about the fact that we take the rebalance to the Asia Pacific region very seriously.¡¨ But he added that there is ¡§nothing offensive or provocative¡¨ about any of the Pentagon¡¦s deployment of troops to the region.

[China testing Obama as it expands its influence in Southeast Asia]

¡§It¡¦s not about selling it to the Chinese or to anybody,¡¨ Kirby said, under questioning during a media briefing. ¡§It¡¦s about meeting our security commitments in a serious alliance with the Philippines. That¡¦s what this is about.¡¨

The map above shows where the bases are. Antonio Bautista Air Base, on the island of Palawan, is a few dozen miles east of the disputed Spratly Islands, where China¡¦s military buildup is underway. Basa Air Base is also near the South China Sea, and is in a rural area outside Manila. Bautista Air Base is the closest installation the Philippines has to the Spratlys, according to Philippine air force. Other bases were considered, according to Philippine media reports, but ultimately not included in the agreement.

China raised questions about the plan Monday, saying that cooperation between the United States and the Philippines should not harm the sovereignty or security interests of any other country.

¡§The U.S. has talked about militarization in the South China Sea. But can it explain whether its own increased military deployment in the region is equivalent to militarization?¡¨ said Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying said at a media briefing, according to Xinhua, a state-run news agency.

The United States had a conventional military presence in the Philippines for nearly a century until 1991, when the country ordered the U.S. military to leave its naval base in Subic Bay after the countries could not reach an agreement on the extension of a lease. A U.S. Special Operations task force was based in the Philippines for 13 years after the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks, but was phased out last year in favor of keeping a small amount of U.S. troops nearby to assist Philippine forces in their fight against Islamist militants.



Dan Lamothe covers national security for The Washington Post and anchors its military blog, Checkpoint.
 

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Pyongyang Forecast: More Missiles Through May

March 21, 2016 By Patrick Tucker

North Korea's recent launches display modest technological achievements, but that’s not why they’re flying.

North Korea’s launch of five missiles into the sea on Monday represents a “modest advancement” in technological capability for the Hermit Kingdom, but it may say more about the regime’s stability than its technical prowess.

The five KN-09 missiles flew about 120 miles. “These missiles are new. They started testing them about a year ago,” said Bruce Bennett, a senior defense analyst with the RAND Corporation. He called them a “particular threat to bases in South Korea.”

It was the slightly longer range of the KN-09s that North Korea launched today that gave Bennett some serious pause. “Historically, the concept has been that North Korea couldn’t reach beyond Seoul with other than its big ballistic missiles and therefore the threat to U.S. airbases in the South was more limited.”

North Korea’s provocative actions were likely to continue until May at least, said Bennett, when Pyongyang holds the 7th Worker’s Party Congress. It’s the first such event since 1980 and might be used to signal a new direction for the party. North Korea’s elites are focused on looking strong in the run-up to the event, so don’t expect North Korea to stop shooting at the sea any time soon.

Monday’s event followed Thursday’s launch of two larger Nodong missiles from a mobile missile launcher – underlining North Korea’s efforts to develop a missile force that can’t be easily wiped out.

South Korean news agency Yonhap reported that one of the Nodong missiles flew 500 miles before falling into the sea, but the other disappeared quickly from radar, suggesting failure.

Monday’s launches appear to have demonstrated similarly spotty success. “The [KN-09] launcher that fires this missile carries eight missiles,” Bennett said. “When they last fired, we saw six of the missiles work. That means two didn’t. This time we saw five missiles fly. That means three didn’t. This is a development program, but they’re having firing issues associated with this missile system. The ones that did fire, we have no idea how accurate they would be, because they’re going into the ocean.”

Large missiles like that Taepodong-2, with a range of more than 2000 miles and the capability carry a nuclear warhead (if North Korea were ever to develop one), make for scary headlines but also a very visible target. The KN-09, conversely, is not the most dangerous rocket in the world, but it “could cause some significant damage to a U.S. airbase in south Korea if they launch against it.”

What It Means: More Missiles

What happens when you keep lobbing missiles into the China Sea? You wake up surrounded by other missiles.

After North Korea sent a rocket into space in February, U.S. officials announced that they were going to work with South Korea to deploy the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, or THAAD, system to the area. Like most mobile anti-missile systems, THAAD consists of a radar to track incoming missiles, a lot of fire-control and support equipment, and a launcher for its interceptor missiles. THAAD-maker Lockheed Martin advertises the system as useful against short-, medium-, and long-range missiles; in a demonstration last November, it tested well against short-range missiles. But Bennett said its usefulness is less certain against KN-09s launched at a low altitude. (High altitude is in the name, after all.)

The United States has just five THAAD batteries, of which four have been activated. “Especially in peacetime, it’s hard to deploy more than one-third of the batteries one has available. It’s too much away time for the troops. Yet we already have one deployed in Guam. We are just barely getting to the point where it’s even possible to deploy a second one to South Korea,” said Bennett. Congress, he says, hasn’t done enough to support the system, and that we’re only building one a year in an environment “where we could use THAAD around the world.”

The United States has already sent eight Patriot missile batteries — radars plus launchers — to the peninsula, where the South Koreans also have eight versions. While the older PAC-2 variant that the South Koreans have is better against aircraft than missiles, the PAC-3, of which the United States has several, could be useful against the rockets that North Korea shot off on Monday.

“The five missiles that they fired today, that’s at the edge of what Patriot can intercept,” Bennett said. “A Patriot can probably kill those, but Patriots are usually intended to deal with the bigger missile that’s got a bigger payload. If you spend all of your Patriot missiles on these smaller rockets, you’re not going to be able to cover all the bigger missiles unless you deploy a lot more Patriots. There’s a tradeoff there.”

He says that the United States would need 25 Patriot missile batteries to cover all the critical targets in South Korea. But since the United States typically deploys them in pairs, in case one is destroyed, the number could go twice that high.

It’s a tradeoff that’s not very cost-effective for the U.S. Smaller rockets like the KN-09 can price tens of thousands of dollars but a Patriot missile ranges from $1 million to $6 million. The cost-benefit calculus of missile defense in the Korean Peninsula eludes easy answer. As Lee Fang points out for The Intercept, the United States has wasted billions in failed short- and intermediate-range missile defense programs.

Direct energy weapons that cost just $1 per round to shoot, such as the one currently deployed on the U.S. amphibious ship Ponce in the Persian Gulf, provide a potentially cheaper and sustainable solution. But the technology so far hasn’t been tested against anything like a missile.

Whether the United States decides to shoot at North Korean missiles at $1 million or $1 dollar a shot, or avoids shooting altogether, it shouldn’t expect Pyongyang to stop launching rockets seaward stop anytime soon.

“North Korean leadership culture says the leader is supposed to really appear empowered. He’s supposed to be very capable and such. Kim Jong-Un doesn’t look that way,” Bennett said. “He has had to try to take a series of actions to prepare for this Congress.” Depending on how that event proceeds, the events of the last few months could signal a “new normal,” he said.
 

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Russia and China: Mutually Assured Detachment

March 22, 2016 | Alexandra Viers and Will Edwards

The foreign ministers of China and Russia met last week amid North Korean aggression and the potential for a U.S. deployed THAAD missile defense system in South Korea. While the threat of a nuclear North Korea is “unacceptable” to both, they are at least equally concerned about the potential for increased U.S. military presence as a result. China and Russia are “strategic partners” as the two powerhouses of the East operate in tandem when mutually beneficial yet remain unwilling to adopt formal ties.

Based on their geostrategic location, the two countries seek to shift the world order in their favor – from Western-centric towards the East. Both are pursuing territorial claims: Russia in Crimea and China in the South and East China Seas. They are becoming more active in international institutions, and they have promoted themselves as a non-Western alternative to a great power hegemon.

The closer ties between Russia and China have drawn concern from Washington. Defense Secretary Ash Carter said in early February, “Russia and China are our most stressing competitors. They have developed and are continuing to advance military systems that seek to threaten our advantages in specific areas. And in some cases, they are developing weapons and ways of war that seek to achieve their objectives rapidly, before they hope, we can respond.”

While Russia and China need each other on the international scene, their cooperation is far from an alliance. Yun Sun, a Senior Associate at the Stimson Center, told The Cipher Brief, “China has no intention to rebuild the kind of alliance relationship like the one they had during the Cold War. China feels victimized, exploited and suppressed in the former formal alliance. With the changed balance of power between the two, a stronger, more assertive Beijing is unlikely to pursue such a path again.”

Even so, the two countries continue to foster economic ties. Much of this is a result of increased energy cooperation through a series of broad long-term projects worth hundreds of billions of dollars. The two states also aim to increase trade from its current $88.4 billion to $200 billion by 2020, and they plan to begin trading in their domestic currencies.

How close the ties between the Russian and Chinese economies truly are remains a debated topic, as the potential alignment of these two anti-Western powers would prove counter to U.S. geostrategic interests. And it is for this reason that Russia aims to publicize the strength of Russo-Chinese relations, says Tom Blackwell, CEO of EM Communications, a Moscow based financial communications and investor relations consultancy. “While it is certainly true that Russian companies have been told to aggressively pursue China links and to maximize publicity of any possible China deals, in some cases the publicity is actually true.”

The strengthening of political and economic ties has already produced clear benefits on both sides. The closer cooperation in energy and arms has helped to fuel China’s rise, and in turn, China has made Russia a stakeholder in its One Belt, One Road initiative and has been accommodating to the Kremlin’s rule in the post-Soviet era.

Of greater and more pressing concern for US security is the recent revelation that Russia and China would coordinate attacks on U.S. military intelligence satellites in the event of conflict. Such a plan illustrates the low-risk high-reward partnership both countries are seeking and adds credence to the fears of many who view this as only the beginning. While the two countries differ enough to thwart a full alliance, the potential for strategic coordination between Russia and China is a daunting prospect for many in the Pentagon.

Alexandra Viers and Will Edwards are International Producers at The Cipher Brief.
 

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Brussels Then, Now, and in the Future

Posted by Joel Weickgenant on March 22, 2016

My daily digest of reading this morning started on a troubling if relatively speculative note. As a naturalized Dutch citizen living in the United Kingdom, I take a personal as well as professional interest in Britain's June 23 vote on whether to remain in the European Union. This article in the Financial Times encapsulated the concerns of the 2.9 million EU citizens living here, as it described a rush on applications for British citizenship by long-time residents hoping to avoid their status being subject to "negotiations between the UK and Brussels" in the event of a so-called Brexit.

I'll come back to that topic in proper context. No sooner was that article digested than Twitter feeds, smartphone alerts, and front pages across the web began to blaze with the news of just the latest vicious attack on Europe's open forums. The details are still coming in now, three-quarters of a workday later, with the latest updates being the inevitable claim of responsibility by the Islamic State group, and the disarming, reported by AP, of a third bomb at Zaventem Airport.

Brexit suddenly mattered very little. What mattered, instead, was the safety of friends and colleagues in Brussels. Messages fly across WhatsApp, status updates on Facebook. The defiant face of the Je Suis social media emblem popularized when Paris was attacked last year turns to an acerbic grimace. This is the new normal, and it's sinking in. Projecting further down the line, we in Europe consider our daily commutes -- the trains connecting Utrecht to Amsterdam or Amsterdam to Brussels, or the Eurostar that flies the flag of white-collar European integration under the English Channel between Paris and London -- every journey, every day, is its own small risk. It is a secular reality that is not changing any time soon.

Where security is no longer a given, the politics will only turn ever more sour. Brussels is a synecdoche. Anyone who has ever spent any time in the Belgian and European capital knows the hopes it physically embodies: With its smart, polyglot mix of workers from across the Continent populating the areas around Schuman Square where the European institutions have their home, it gives credence to the ideal of a Europe that works better when it builds together, if you'll excuse the sloganeering. In its own smaller, grittier way, it is as vibrant as London or New York, and every bit as intelligent.

Yet its darker realities in their own parochial way epitomize everything that has gone wrong on a Continental scale within the European Union. The capital of a country divided among itself between Flemish and Walloon aspirations, Brussels has 19 municipal mayors - nineteen! -- creating what German publication Der Spiegel calls a "tangle of bureaucracy" that makes a muddle of basic policing, and helps perhaps explain why the capital of Europe has become the European capital of jihad. Take the view of former FBI and U.S. Army counter-terrorism official Clint Watts, quoted today by CNBC:

"'It is hard to conceive that this would happen on such a large scale when it was so obvious that these guys were operating there,' Watts said of ISIS. ‘After [Abdeslam's] arrest, you would have to assume everyone in the network was preparing to launch whatever they had.'

"‘After the Paris attacks, it was a question of not being able to run all the leads down,' Watts said. After Tuesday, "It's no longer a capacity problem, it's a competency problem.'"

So who does one blame, as the new normal sets in? Some will blame lax security measures, and cry for more enforcement. Some will blame the lack of earnest dialogue on immigration and integration, pointing the finger at failed policies decades old. Perhaps it's the fault of the refugee crisis, or of the inability to track the flow of fighters between Europe and the Middle East. Maybe the neglect and marginalization of immigrant groups will be part of the conversation.

One thing is sure: A citizenry must feel safe before it can be idealistic. Europe as an integrated entity is an ideal, it's a notion. It feels good to take down borders when those borders are seen as hampering prosperity, and when the lack of an external threat keeps harder, more practical questions at bay.

Those questions are now baying. It's hard to say what security measures could keep a handful of society's most motivated losers from acting out their delusions. It is simply too easy, in an open society, to kill lots of people.

So today's new normal moves tomorrow's ever closer: If we aren't safe when we are open, we will close. Europe's mainstream politicians struggle to respond in the aftermath of attacks like this. France's centre-left President, Francois Hollande, put on a tough guise, reiterating bellicose rhetoric he had already used in the aftermath of attacks in Paris in November 2015, but each of these attacks strengthens his far-right opponent, Marine Le Pen. And it does the same for the Netherlands' Geert Wilders, who sounds perfectly sensible in calling for a closure of the borders. And it does the same in the United Kingdom for Nigel Farage, the original Brexiteer, who wasted no time.

This is where the Old Continent starts to feel, well, old. The idealism that is the European Union is under pressure from every side, but beneath its idealism there has always been a practical intent, which is to bind the Continent in shared peace and prosperity. To paraphrase what a colleague recently told me, it is right now as though the Continent has lain under a blue pan-European veil for decades. As that veil is lifted, it turns out, the same nationalisms, the same mutual suspicions that lay dormant for so long, are still alive. Their voices are getting louder, and as Brussels becomes a symbol for failed ambition -- ambition to open borders without securing them, ambition to open up the economy without unifying it -- their chorus may overwhelm the rest. That is the crescendo that brings us to the Brexit vote on June 23 -- a key test for whether Europe as a whole can survive the moment.

If it doesn't, yesterday's Je Suis Charlie Hebdo, or Je Suis Paris, may well turn into a new, unspoken reality: On est seul. Today, from Brussels to Bristol, that reality feels as close as ever.
 

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March 22, 2016

Brussels Attacks Highlight Europe's New Reality

By Lili Bayer
Comments 12

Two explosions hit Brussels Zaventem airport today, followed by another explosion at the Maelbeek metro station. The airport explosions took place at a check-in area around 8am local time, while the metro station was hit about an hour later. At least 34 people were killed. Early reports indicate that the airport blasts were the result of one suicide bombing and one bomb detonated from a distance. There are also reports that there was shouting in Arabic and gunshots were heard before the blasts. At least 14 people were killed in the airport attack. The Maelbeek station, where 20 people were killed, is in close proximity to European Union office buildings.

Today's attacks differ from the Paris attacks on Nov. 13 in size, scope and level of organization. In Paris, the attacks involved the participation of several groups targeting a stadium, concert hall, restaurants and cafes and led to 130 deaths. The attacks in Brussels were coordinated, but may have involved as few as two or three individuals. Today's attacks thus required much less equipment and advanced planning than the Paris attacks. It may be that the attacks are revenge for the arrest of Salah Abdeslam, a suspect in the Paris attacks. Or it could be operatives connected to Abdeslam - fearing that the authorities are closing in - attempting to carry out one last attack before their organization is dismantled.


Thus far, there have been no claims of responsibility for the attacks. There are reports in Russian and Kurdish press pointing a finger at the Islamic State, but no credible confirmation yet of the group's involvement. The nature of the attacks, however, suggests the operation of an independent cell. We will continue watching closely for any claims of responsibility. Cells that are related to or work as a part of radical groups, including the Islamic State, are known to operate in Brussels.

The attacks come four days after the arrest of Abdeslam in the Brussels neighborhood of Molenbeek. The Nov. 13 attacks in Paris, which the Islamic State formally claimed responsibility for, were believed to have been planned largely in Brussels. Over the past few months, Belgian police conducted several raids in an effort to dislodge terror cells in Brussels. Molenbeek, an immigrant neighborhood in Brussels where unemployment stands at about 30 percent, is known as a jihadi hub. Not only were several suspects connected to the Paris bombings arrested in that neighborhood, but Molenbeek also reportedly boasts the highest concentration in Europe of militants going to fight in Syria and Iraq.

Attacks like those in Brussels today, especially on soft targets like large, unprotected public transportation centers, are likely the new normal for Europe. The Islamic State is largely focused on its war in Syria and Iraq, but militants have shown a willingness to further some strategic goals through terror attacks farther afield.

If today's attack was indeed orchestrated by the Islamic State, it is in the group's interest to strike visible Western targets because it benefits when the tide of popular opinion turns against migrants, and when Muslim minorities in Europe feel that the West does not accept them. Moreover, it is impossible for authorities to fully secure all soft targets. Even if some members of a cell are arrested or killed, groups tend to have middle managers who are responsible for coordinating multiple cells. Unless the middle management is eliminated, when some of the attackers die or get captured there are others who can be deployed and more attacks are likely. At the same time, local groups, lone wolves and militants returning from Syria and Iraq are also able to carry out attacks, albeit generally on a smaller scale. Lone wolves are particularly difficult to locate, even with strong security measures and intelligence capabilities.

The refugee crisis, combined with the impact of the Paris attacks, has contributed to the fragmentation of Europe's Schengen free movement zone. The Schengen zone is still functioning, but many members have obtained opt-outs and selectively implement border controls. Today's attacks led to the closure of the border between France and Belgium. They are not a game-changer for Europe, but they highlight that terror attacks, border controls and tight security have become part of Europe's reality.


Reprinted with permission from Geopolitical Futures
 

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Business | Tue Mar 22, 2016 11:54am EDT
Related: World, Russia, Aerospace & Defense

Russian court sentences Ukrainian pilot to 22 years in jail

DONETSK, Russia | By Gennady Novik and Alexander Reshetnikov


A Russian court sentenced Ukrainian pilot Nadezhda Savchenko to 22 years in jail on Tuesday after finding her guilty of involvement in the killing of two Russian journalists during the separatist conflict in eastern Ukraine.

Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said his country would never recognize the verdict of what he called a "kangaroo court" and called on Russian President Vladimir Putin to send Savchenko back home to Ukraine.

Fighting in eastern Ukraine has subsided since a fragile ceasefire was agreed, but Savchenko's trial showed the depth of bitterness that remains. Savchenko, 34, is a national hero in Ukraine but many in Russia see her as a Ukrainian nationalist with the blood of civilians on her hands.

The sentence is likely to prompt protests from the European Union, which has called for Savchenko's release.

Savchenko, who was elected a member of the Ukrainian parliament while awaiting trial, was defiant as the verdict was read out. She climbed onto a bench and sang the Ukrainian national anthem at the top of her voice.

Savchenko, who wore a T-shirt bearing the Ukrainian trident, a state symbol, has denied having anything to do with the deaths of the journalists.

Poroshenko said after the verdict: "Ukraine will never - I repeat, never - recognize either the kangaroo court of Nadezhda Savchenko, nor its so-called sentencing."

He said Putin had promised him some months ago that he would return Savchenko to Ukraine once the trial was over.


Related Coverage
› Only Putin can decide whether to trade jailed pilot with Ukraine: Ifax

"The time has come to fulfill that promise," Poroshenko said in a statement. "In turn, I am prepared to hand over to Russia the two Russian servicemen captured on our territory for taking part in armed aggression against Ukraine."

Russian officials have previously signaled they would be willing to consider a prisoner exchange.

Only Putin can decide whether Russia will trade Savchenko with Kiev, the Interfax news agency quoted Dmitry Peskov, a Kremlin spokesman, as saying on Tuesday.


SINGING PROTEST

At the hearing in southern Russian, judge Leonid Stepanenko, between shouted interruptions by Savchenko, dismissed her lawyers' arguments that she could not have been involved in killing the journalists.

"The evidence provided by the prosecution side is trustworthy and completely disproves the theory of the defense about Savchenko's innocence," the judge said.

He said the court had decided "to select as the final punishment for Savchenko 22 years of confinement of liberty with a fine of 30,000 rubles ($442)."

The sentence was one year less than the term prosecutors had sought.


Related Coverage
› Ukraine's Poroshenko condemns Savchenko 'kangaroo court'

Asked by the judge if she understood the sentence, Savchenko stood on a bench in the cage where she was being kept and began singing the Ukrainian national anthem. Her supporters in the courtroom joined the singing and tried to unfurl a blue-and-yellow Ukrainian flag, before security staff bundled them out.

Savchenko, who had taken leave from her job as a military pilot to volunteer with Ukraine's ground forces fighting against the separatists in eastern Ukraine, was captured by pro-Moscow rebels there in June 2014.

She was handed over to Russia where she was charged with directing mortar fire which killed the two Russian journalists who were covering the conflict.

She has repeatedly gone on hunger strike, and says she is the victim of a show trial aimed at humiliating Ukraine.

During the trial, angry Ukrainians have pelted the Russian embassy in Kiev with eggs over her plight, while Russians have picketed the Ukrainian embassy in Moscow demanding justice for the dead journalists.


(Additional reporting by Dmitry Solovyov in Moscow and Natalia Zinets and Pavel Polityuk in Kiev, Writing by Christian Lowe, Editing by Timothy Heritage)
 

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World | Tue Mar 22, 2016 4:17am EDT
Related: World, United Nations, Africa, Mali

Gunmen attack EU military mission HQ in Mali; one attacker killed

BAMAKO | By Tiemoko Diallo and Adama Diarra

Video

Gunmen on Monday attacked a hotel in Mali's capital, Bamako, that had been converted into the headquarters of a European Union military training operation, but there no casualties among the mission's personnel.

There was no immediate claim of responsibility for the attack, which began at around 6:30 p.m. local time (1830 GMT), but Mali and neighboring West African countries have increasingly been the target of Islamist militants, some of them affiliated with al Qaeda.

One of the assailants was killed and two suspects were arrested and were being interrogated, the country's internal security minister said.

A witness said the attack targeted Bamako's Nord-Sud Hotel, headquarters for the mission of nearly 600 EU personnel deployed to Mali to train its security forces.

"The attackers tried to force through the entry and the guards posted in front of the entrance opened fire. One attacker was killed," he said.

Sekou Tamboura was also near the hotel when the shooting erupted.

"We were next to the Hamdallaye Cemetery when the first shot rang out, then there was a second and a third. There were a few seconds of pause, then it kicked off and did not stop. It was every man for himself," Tamboura said.


Related Coverage
› No staff casualties in attack at EU training mission in Mali

The mission confirmed the attack on its official Twitter feed.

"EUTM-MALI HQ has been attacked. No EUTM-Mali personnel has been hurt ... during the attack," it said.

Azalaï Hotels, which runs the Nord-Sud Hotel, later posted on Twitter that the assailants had been repelled and the building had been secured.

"One of the assailants was killed. We are examining the sack he was carrying, which could contain explosives," Interior Security Minister Colonel Salif Traoré said on state television. "Two suspects were arrested and are being interrogated."

He added that security forces were carrying out operations around the EU headquarters and seeking to secure another building nearby.

A photo taken of the dead gunman seen by Reuters showed a man who appeared to be in his 20s, possibly from northern Mali, dressed stylishly in jeans, a brown shirt and Nike trainers, lying on his back in a pool of blood beside a Kalashnikov assault rifle.

A Reuters reporter at the scene of the attack said security forces, including Malian army special forces, had cordoned off the area while a cleanup operation was carried out.


Related Coverage
› Attack on EU military training mission in Mali over: hotel manager
› Gunman killed, two suspects arrested in Mali attack: minister

Vehicles from Mali's United Nations peacekeeping mission were also visible.

The EU mission was deployed as part of efforts to stabilise Mali, which saw Islamist militants, some of them linked to al Qaeda, seize its desert north in 2012.

France led an intervention a year later to drive back the Islamists, fearing that the lawless zone could be used as a base for attacks against targets in Europe.

However, violence is again on the rise. Dozens of people were killed in a November raid on Bamako's Radisson Blu hotel claimed by al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), the group's North African branch.

A similar assault on a hotel in Burkina Faso's capital, Ouagadougou, followed in January. AQIM also claimed responsibility for another attack that killed 19 people a beach resort town in Ivory Coast earlier this month.


(Writing by Joe Bavier; editing by Mark Heinrich and G Crosse)
 

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Tunisia extends emergency state, hosts talks on Libya

March 22 2016 11:38 PM

AFP/Tunis

Tunisia yesterday extended by three months a state of emergency imposed following militant attacks and hosted talks with Libya’s neighbours on the growing threat posed by the Islamic State group.

Authorities also decided to reopen the border with Libya, which had been closed two weeks ago after a deadly raid on the frontier town of Ben Guerdane which they blamed on the militant group.

Analysts and officials have said the raid was an attempt by the extremist organisation to spread its influence from Libya across the border into Tunisia.

The North African nation, the birthplace of the Arab Spring, has suffered from a wave of militant violence since the 2011 revolution that ousted longtime dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali.

IS claimed brazen attacks last year on the National Bardo Museum in Tunis and a beach resort, and a November suicide bombing in the capital, that killed in total 59 tourists and 12 presidential guards.

After the November attack targeting the presidential guards authorities declared a state of emergency which President Beji Caid Essebsi decided to extend for the third time yesterday.

Essebsi “has decided after consultations... to extend the state of emergency for a period of three months from March 23,” two months more than the previous extension, his office said in a statement.

The measure comes just two weeks after seven civilians and 13 security personnel were killed in coordinated militant attacks in Ben Guerdane.

Forty-nine militants were killed by security forces in clashes and raids after the attacks.

On Monday night the interior ministry said authorities had arrested 12 members of a cell suspected of having helped “terrorists” travel to Libya.

Ben Guerdane, home to 60,000 people, has been under nighttime curfew since the March 7 attacks, but two crossings with Libya were reopened yesterday.

The reopening is seen as crucial for cross-border trade, a mainstay of the economy of Tunisia’s largely impoverished southern provinces.

It came as Tunisia hosted talks with other countries that share borders with Libya on the threat posed by the growing influence of IS in the lawless oil-rich North African nation.

Libya has had two rival administrations since mid-2014 when the recognised government was forced from Tripoli to the far east after a militia alliance including Islamists overran the capital.

The UN is pushing Libya’s rival politicians to accept a unity government, created under a power-sharing deal sealed by the rival parties in December.

The deal has not been formally endorsed by lawmakers from either side, effectively blocking the unity government from operating.

IS has taken advantage of the political vacuum to expand its influence in Libya and spread it further beyond.

Tunisian Foreign Minister Khemaies Jhinaou opened yesterday’s meeting with a plea to delegates from Algeria, Egypt, Sudan, Niger and Chad for greater co-operation to end Libya’s chaos.

“The proliferation of terrorist groups and their control of certain regions in Libya is a source of extreme concern... a danger for Libya’s people.. and for the stability of its neighbours,” he said.

Libya’s UN envoy Martin Kobler told the meeting that the “terrorists are taking advantage of political divisions”, urging support for the UN-backed unity government.

Libya’s neighbours said in a statement at the end of the Tunis talks that a unity government must be installed quickly in Tripoli to counter the threat of militants.
 

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First Published: 2016-03-22

Libya's neighbours call on UN-backed government to take office in Tripoli

Libya's neighbours seeking stability for the country, wary of growing threat from jihadist insurgency.

Middle East Online

TOBRUK - Libya's neighbours on Tuesday called on the UN-backed government to take office as quickly as possible in Tripoli to help tackle the growing influence of jihadists threatening their stability.

The call was made at a ministerial meeting hosted by Tunisia and attended by delegates from Algeria, Chad, Egypt, Niger and Sudan, as well as the UN envoy to Libya.

Libya's neighbours said they fully backed the unity government and stressed the "necessity to speed up its departure for Tripoli," a statement said.

Libya has had two rival administrations since mid-2014 when the recognised government was forced from Tripoli to the far east after a militia alliance including Islamists overran the capital.

The United Nations is pushing the two sides to accept a unity government, created under a power-sharing deal agreed by the rival parties in December.

But it failed to obtain formal parliamentary approval from both administrations, a move effectively blocking its declared will to take office and move to the capital.

The jihadist Islamic State group has taken advantage of the chaos to spread its influence in Libya claiming devastating attacks in the North African nation and in its neighbours, namely Tunisia.

At the onset of the meeting, Tunisian Foreign Minister Khemaies Jhinaou warned that "the proliferation of terrorist groups and their control of certain regions in Libya is a source of extreme concern... a danger for Libya's people.. and for the stability of its neighbours."

UN envoy Martin Kobler exhorted Libya's neighbours to back efforts by the United Nations to install a unity government in the oil-rich country.

"The (political) process remains precarious... At the same time, the terrorists are taking advantage of the political divisions and the Libyans, as well as their neighbours, continue to bear the consequences," said Kobler.

"Daesh (an Arabic acronym for IS) in Libya is a growing and imminent threat," he added.

The UN envoy also called for the formation of a united Libyan army that would include General Khalifa Haftar.

"He must be part of a solution," said Kobler.

Haftar heads the armed forces loyal to the internationally recognised government and his ouster is demanded by Islamist-backed administration in Tripoli.

The general returned to Libya after more than 20 years in exile in the United States to join the 2011 uprising that toppled dictator Moamer Kadhafi. He has since vowed to crush Islamists.
 

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North Korea: U.S. demand we give up nukes shows 'escapist mentality'

By Elizabeth Shim | March 22, 2016 at 10:15 AM

SEOUL, March 22 (UPI) -- North Korea suggested the United States and South Korea are engaging in a fantasy when they demand that it give up its nuclear weapons.

"The United States and its South Korean puppet are conducting military exercises on the peninsula and these various drills are the fundamental driving forces that are calling for war," North Korea said in a statement issued by KCNA, Pyongyang's news agency.

North Korea said there is no guarantee that "total war" couldn't strike the peninsula, and that if war is declared, it could quickly escalate into a "world war" involving other nuclear powers.

"If the United States does not break out of this way of thinking, there will be no progress in resolving the problems of the Korean peninsula," North Korea said.

KCNA also blamed the United States for continuing its "hostile policy" that includes a demand that North Korea give up its nuclear weapons first, before other treaties are signed.

Pyongyang accused Washington of "sophistry" and said U.S. demands for denuclearization were a sign of an "escapist mentality," adding that its arsenal of nuclear weapons that include a "hydrogen bomb" and other forms of deterrence have allowed it to defend its sovereignty.
 

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Saudi-led coalition pounds Qaeda training camp in Yemen

AFP
3 hours ago

Aden (AFP) - Saudi-led air strikes on an Al-Qaeda training camp in Yemen on Tuesday killed or wounded dozens, officials and tribal sources said, as the Arab coalition expands its campaign against jihadists.

The raids came almost one year since the Saudi-led coalition launched its bombing campaign against Iran-backed Shiite rebels who challenged the authority of the Yemeni government and seized much of the country.

Government officials said the raids hit a training camp in Hajr, west of Hadramawt's provincial capital Mukalla which has been held by jihadists since April.

They said dozens or people were killed or wounded but did not give a breakdown or say if there were any civilians among the casualties.

Tribal sources said wounded militants were taken to a hospital in Mukalla, while witnesses spoke of around nine vehicles rushing casualties out of the area.

Dozens of Al-Qaeda militants were meanwhile seen rushing to the hospital to donate blood, according to residents.

.. View gallery
A Yemeni fighter loyal to exiled President Abedrabbo …
A Yemeni fighter loyal to exiled President Abedrabbo Mansour Hadi fires from a tank during clashes w …

The World Health Organization says fighting in Yemen since March 2015 has claimed the lives of almost 6,300 people, while the UN human rights chief last week said half of all those killed were civilians with the vast majority of those deaths caused by coalition strikes.

On Tuesday rights watchdogs Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch urged the United States, Britain and France to halt arm deliveries to Saudi Arabia that could be used in the Yemen conflict.

Riyadh launched the intervention in Yemen last year after Shiite Huthi rebels seized control of large parts of the country, including the capital Sanaa, and forced the government into exile.

- Peace talks -

Loyalist forces backed by coalition strikes and ground troops have since retaken much of the south but have failed to dislodge the rebels from other areas including Sanaa.

.. View gallery
Yemeni tribesmen from the Popular Resistance Committees …
Yemeni tribesmen from the Popular Resistance Committees hold a position during clashes with Shiite H …

They have recaptured second city Aden and the southern port has been declared the permanent seat of the government of President Abedrabbo Mansour Hadi.

But in the past few weeks, jihadists from Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and the Islamic State group have bolstered their presence in southern and eastern Yemen.

The Sunni extremists were also reinforcing their grip on parts of Aden in defiance of the authorities and the Saudi-led coalition as the latter were busy pounding the Huthi rebels.

Last week Saudi-led coalition warplanes struck the jihadists in Aden, for the first time since the pro-government air campaign was launched on March 26 last year.

AQAP, which is well entrenched in Yemen where it has been active for years, is classified by the United States as Al-Qaeda's deadliest franchise and had claimed attacks on the West in the past.

It ruled the southern province of Abyan for a year before being driven out in June 2012. But last April it seized Hadramawt's provincial capital Mukalla and nearby oil installations.

From Mukalla, AQAP has expanded to regain its foothold in southern provinces including Abyan last year and nearby Lahj and Shabwa.

Saudi Arabia launched the intervention in Yemen last year after Shiite Huthi rebels seized Sanaa and pushed southwards, forcing the government into exile.

Several rounds of UN-brokered peace talks have failed to nail a solution for Yemen.

But Yemeni Foreign Minister Abdulmalek al-Mikhlafi said on Tuesday he was "99 percent" sure a new round of talks would take place in Kuwait later this month.

A Yemeni government official said on Monday the peace negotiations would be accompanied by a ceasefire.

Also on Tuesday the union of journalists accused rebels of killing cameraman Mohammed al-Yemeni in third city Taez while he was covering clashes.


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National Security

How Belgium became the hub of terror in Europe

By Greg Miller and Joby Warrick March 22 at 8:14 PM

For three days last week, counterterrorism officials and experts from dozens of countries gathered in Brussels for a conference on a threat quietly gathering in the city around them.

They passed through an airport whose vulnerabilities had been assessed by Islamist militants. Some even stepped off a subway system already marked as a soft target. They heard a top Belgian official warn that the recent arrest of a suspect in last fall’s Paris attacks had exposed only the edge of a larger network.

The suspect, Salah Abdeslam, “was ready to restart something from Brussels” four months after he went underground, said Didier Reynders, the Belgian foreign minister. At the conclusion of the massive manhunt, authorities had “found a lot of weapons, heavy weapons . . . and we are seeing a new network of people around him in Brussels.”

The arrest of Abdeslam appears to have set off a race between security officials in Belgium and a terrorist cell that must have known that it had limited time to act. On Tuesday, the authorities lost.

[How vulnerable is the United States to a Brussels-like attack?]

The attacks, which killed at least 31 people and left about 250 others injured, were promptly claimed by the Islamic State, the terrorist group that has unleashed a series of external plots as its territory in Syria and Iraq has begun to shrink. Belgian officials described the devastation as a “black day,” darker than any the country had seen since World War II.

The carnage also exposed the extent to which Belgium has become the Western hub of a terrorist threat that has spread from the Islamic State’s strongholds in Syria across the Middle East and deep into Europe.

Belgium has seen a larger share of its Muslim population leave to fight in Syria than has any other Western country. The Molenbeek district of Brussels, the capital, is a particularly fertile breeding ground for militants, including several involved in the Paris attacks that killed 130 people last year.

Belgium was the first country in Europe to face an attack on its soil tied to the Islamic State: a shooting at a Jewish museum in Brussels that killed four people nearly two years ago. But despite that early wake-up call, the carnage Tuesday showed how woefully vulnerable Belgium remains.

“It’s kind of astonishing how hard it is for bureaucracies to be galvanized without direct experience of a major terror attack,” said Daniel Benjamin, a former top counterterrorism official at the State Department. “The tragedy is that country after country has had to learn this the hard way,” he said, describing the Islamic State’s support network in Belgium as “probably the most fully developed [terror] infrastructure in Europe.”

[How the Brussels attacks could force Obama to betray his policy instincts]

A small nation of 11.2 million, Belgium has had at least 470 of its citizens enter Syria to join the fighting since the civil war began there four years ago. That is triple the number of suspected fighters who have attempted to get to Syria from the United States. And the ratio of Belgian fighters — about 45 for every 1 million citizens — is more than twice that of its neighbor France.

Even before Tuesday’s attacks, those statistics made counterterrorism officials concerned that Belgium would face a dangerous “boomerang effect.”

“When you have these large numbers of foreign fighters, ISIS can cherry-pick the best ones to give them training and dispatch them to their home country to carry out attacks,” said Bruce Hoffman, a terrorism expert and director of Georgetown University’s Center for Security Studies, using an alternate name for the Islamic State. “Even if ISIS dispatches only 10 percent of these fighters, you’ve got the foundation of a potentially highly effective terrorist cell and support network.”

Initially, exporting violence did not appear to be one of the Islamic State’s priorities. For months after its declaration in 2014 of a restored caliphate, the organization’s energies seemed focused on expanding and controlling its territory in Syria and Iraq.

But U.S. officials and experts believe that the Islamic State has shifted its strategy over the past year as it has lost territory and momentum under a barrage of U.S.-led airstrikes and ground operations by Western-backed militias.

In its statement claiming responsibility for Tuesday’s attacks, the group suggested that the subway and airport bombings were a response to “aggression against the Islamic State.” Video messages posted by Belgian Islamic State veterans in recent weeks have warned of new attacks against Europe.

“If you do not leave the Muslims alone, you will never be able to sleep at night,” a fighter identified as Abu Shaheed al-Belgiki warned in Belgian-accented Dutch. “Know that we only needed six soldiers to shake all of Paris.” There were 10 attackers in Paris.

[Why is Brussels under attack?]

About 118 of Belgium’s departed fighters are believed to be back in Europe — part of a much broader stream of militants returning from Syria that has unnerved European security services.

Belgium’s relatively small security force is widely regarded as among the least effective in Europe, and it has struggled to penetrate the country’s home-grown Islamist network or track the movements of Islamic State veterans.

It took Belgian officials four months to locate Abdeslam, the Brussels native and alleged lone survivor of the cell that carried out the Paris attacks on Nov. 13. Europe’s most-wanted fugitive was finally captured March 18, even though he had been hiding out in the Belgian capital, not far from his childhood home.

In the past two years, at least seven other Islamist terrorist attacks or foiled plots have taken place on Belgian soil or have been linked to Belgian nationals. Several of the alleged culprits previously fought for the Islamic State or other jihadist groups in Syria or Iraq.

Mehdi Nemmouche, a French native with dual French-Algerian citizenship, had spent a year fighting in Syria before returning to Europe, crossing multiple borders and then opening fire at the Jewish Museum of Belgium in 2014. Police would link him to a video claiming responsibility for the attack and displaying a homemade Islamic State flag before his arrest in France.

In January 2015, an assailant who killed shoppers in a Paris kosher market used a gun purchased from Belgian arms dealers. That same month, police in the eastern Belgian city of Verviers killed two radical Islamists who were plotting what authorities described as a major terrorist attack that was to include the beheading of a police officer.

Last August, a former Belgian resident and Syria veteran tried to kill passengers on an Amsterdam-to-Paris train before being subdued by two U.S. servicemen and another American who happened to be aboard. The suspect, Ayoub el-Khazzani, got on the train in Brussels and carried weapons obtained from a Belgian supplier.

On Nov. 13, the deadliest terrorist attack in French history was carried out in Paris by 10 assailants led by an Islamic State veteran from Brussels’s Molenbeek district.

Because of Europe’s open borders, Belgium’s terrorism problem now threatens all its neighbors, Hoffman said.

“In Europe, individual countries are only as strong as their most vulnerable neighbor,” Hoffman said. “You can have a strong surveillance network and counterterrorism machinery, but if a neighboring country doesn’t have the same resources or the same perception of the threat, that becomes a launch pad that can be exploited by groups that want to project terrorist attacks elsewhere.”

In his remarks at the Brussels security conference, Foreign Minister Reynders said Abdeslam, the apprehended Paris suspect, had told investigators he was supposed to take part in the suicide bombing of a soccer game at the Stade de France but didn’t follow through.

“We don’t know why,” Reynders said at the conference, which was also attended by Nicholas J. Rasmussen, director of the U.S. National Counterterrorism Center.

Reynders said Abdeslam was being questioned by investigators and was eager to avoid extradition to France. But it is not clear whether the suspect revealed any information about other nodes of the Islamic State’s network in Europe or whether Belgian authorities had a chance to act.

Reynders’s comments came during a panel Sunday at a hotel just blocks from the Maelbeek metro station, where at least 20 people were killed two days later. “We need to dismantle a lot of cells, a lot of groups of terrorists, a lot of networks,” Reynders said.



Julie Tate contributed to this report.

Greg Miller covers intelligence agencies and terrorism for The Washington Post.
 

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THE BLOG

Saudi Arabia Can’t Hide From the Truth

03/21/2016 02:40 pm ET | Updated 1 day ago
Comments 28

Saudi Arabia’s pathetic effort to convince the American public that it is a force for tolerance and stability in the world continued in a laughable op-ed published on this site just over a week ago.

Without even a hint of self-consciousness, the Kingdom’s new ambassador to the United States made the delusional claim that “Saudi Arabia has and will continue to lead all nations in combating the mindset that foments violent extremism.” The newly minted ambassador went on to argue that the Kingdom’s religious leaders, including its Grand Mufti, “have loudly and repeatedly condemned extremism and terrorism and have worked to guide those who could be deluded by extremist ideologies away from that misguided path.”

Really?

Was that the case when, just two years before the 9/11 attacks, the Kingdom’s Grand Mufti (who by the way is a government official appointed by the King) published a book stating that “[t]he attack of the Christian crusaders is today at its most intense...The Muslim whose mind has not been corrupted cannot bear to see the infidels wielding authority...[t]herefore such a Muslim strives [to] his utmost to expel and distance them—even if he has to sacrifice his own life, or his most cherished possession for this cause.”?

Perhaps the Ambassador was instead referring to the Saudi government textbook which proclaimed that true Muslims “must show the infidels rudeness and violence, and wage Jihad in the way of Allah without fear of the Infidels and hypocrites, or terror of their arms and numbers.”

Sadly, the examples of this Saudi government-funded, intolerant, violent, and toxic rhetoric abound, as several studies by the bi-partisan Freedom House have confirmed.

Much as the oil-rich Kingdom would like us to believe otherwise, it is not a coincidence that 15 of the 19 September 11 hijackers and Osama bin Laden himself were Saudis. To the contrary, they were the horrible products of the multi-billion dollar Saudi hate machine. And lest you think this is a problem of the past, Saudis rank number one among the roster of foreign fighters who have joined ISIS.

Given the actual facts, it should come as no surprise that American political and thought leaders do not share the new Ambassador’s implausible view of the Kingdom’s role in the world.

Just days after the Saudi Ambassador authored his ridiculous plea, The Atlantic published an interview with President Obama in which the president decried the Saudis as “free riders” whose massive efforts to propagate the Wahhabi variant of Islam have promoted extremist ideologies and sectarian conflicts that imperil our national security across the globe.

The president’s assessments echoed the observation of Thomas Friedman of the New York Times several months ago that “all these Sunni jihadist groups — ISIS, Al Qaeda, the Nusra Front — are the ideological offspring of the Wahhabism injected by Saudi Arabia into mosques and madrasas from Morocco to Pakistan to Indonesia.”

Friedman’s New York Times colleague David Kirkpatrick likewise confirmed the intimate link between Saudi Arabia’s propagation of Wahhabi ideology and the rise of ISIS, explaining in 2014 that “For their guiding principles, the leaders of the Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL, are open and clear about their almost exclusive commitment to the Wahhabi movement of Sunni Islam. The group circulates images of Wahhabi religious textbooks from Saudi Arabia in the schools it controls. Videos from the group’s territory have shown Wahhabi texts plastered on the sides of an official missionary van.”

For these very reasons, Micah Zenko, a veteran of the State Department’s Office of Policy Planning and senior fellow at the Washington-based Council on Foreign Relations, said this week that the idea of the Saudis leading the fight against terrorism was akin to a “[drug] cartel leading a counternarcotics campaign.”

In fairness to the Saudis, they’re right to be nervous about their state in the world and understandably desperate to make themselves look better. Several world leaders have joined President Obama in denouncing the role of the Kingdom in fueling the tide of Islamist extremism that now envelopes the globe.

Meanwhile, historical allies in Europe and elsewhere are increasingly wary of selling arms to a state that appears unconcerned with the massive civilian casualties resulting from its reckless use of those weapons in Yemen, or the international outcry over its horrific human rights abuses at home.

In the last few weeks the Saudis have lashed out aggressively against allies who have not fallen in line with their thinking, and in the past they have not been above making thinly veiled threats when they do not get their way.

In this moment, we who lost loved ones in the September 11th attacks hope our president and government will finally stand up to our Saudi “friends,” and tell them once and for all that denial is not a viable path forward.

Winston Churchill once said that a “lie gets halfway around the world before the truth has a chance to get its pants on.” Maybe that’s what the Saudis (and some in the U.S. government) are counting on. But what they’re not appreciating is that, once the truth gets dressed, it catches up really fast, and when it does, you can’t hide from it.

Terry Strada, widow of Tom Strada, North Tower
Gordon Haberman, father of Andrea Haberman, North Tower
Curtis F. Brewer, husband of Carol Demitz, South Tower


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Terrorism Saudi Arabia 9/11 Islamic Extremists Saudi Ambassador
 

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North Korea Conducts Land Test of Sub-Launched Missile

Ejection test comes amid heightened tensions

BY: Bill Gertz
March 22, 2016 5:00 am

North Korea conducted a ground-test last week of its new KN-11 submarine-launched ballistic missile amid heightened tensions on the Korean peninsula, defense officials said.

The missile test March 16 involved a “pop-up” or “ejection test” of the developmental SLBM from a canister ashore at the Sinpo shipyard, located on North Korea’s east coast where the KN-11 is being developed along with the Gorae-class missile-firing submarine.

It was the second recent test of this sort, following a Dec. 21 ejection test, and was the first SLBM test since the United Nations imposed tougher sanctions on Pyongyang.

At the Pentagon, spokesman Cmdr. Bill Urban said: “We’re not going to comment on matters of intelligence.”

The test appears to violate a recent UN Security Council resolution, No. 2277, which on March 5 tightened economic sanctions on North Korea in an effort to block development of nuclear arms and nuclear missiles.

The new resolution states that a 2015 SLBM missile ejection test violated earlier UN resolutions aimed at curbing both nuclear and missile programs sponsored by the Pyongyang regime.

“All such ballistic missile activities contribute to [North Korea’s] development of nuclear weapons delivery systems and increase tension in the region and beyond,” the resolution says.

The earlier ejection test was first reported by the Washington Free Beacon on Jan. 5.

The new UN resolution followed North Korea’s underground nuclear test on Jan. 6 and missile test on Feb. 7.

North Korea attempted an underwater flight test of the new KN-11 on Nov. 28 that severely damaged the launching submarine. Officials said the Gorae sailed back into Sinpo from a position in the Sea of Japan listing at a 40-degree angle as a result of internal damage from the failed SLBM launch.

Disclosure of the SLBM test comes as North Korea on Monday fired five short-range ballistic missiles and has threatened to conduct further nuclear and long-range missile tests in defiance of international pressure.

Urban, the Pentagon spokesman, said five short-range ballistic missiles were fired in the latest missile test firing by North Korea.

“We closely monitor North Korean military activities and the situation on the Korean Peninsula,” Urban said. “Launches using ballistic missile technology are a clear violation of multiple UN Security Council resolutions. We call on North Korea to refrain from actions that further raise tensions in the region and focus instead on taking concrete steps toward fulfilling its international commitments and obligations,” he said.

South Korean media said the five missiles were launched near the city of Hamhung and flew about 124 miles into the sea.

North Korea has been steadily escalating military provocations in response to the new UN sanctions and in response to large-scale U.S. and South Korean military exercises now underway in South Korea.

South Korean President Park Geun-hye also warned Monday that Pyongyang could carry out additional military provocations and urged the country to remain vigilant. “Now is a very crucial time for the future of the Korean Peninsula,” she said during a meeting with aides at the presidential office in Seoul.

North Korea’s dictator Kim Jong Un vowed in recent days that his country would soon conduct a nuclear warhead test blast and fire several kinds of ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads.

Two days after last week’s SLBM ejection test, North Korea fired two medium-range Nodong ballistic missiles. The road mobile Nodongs were fired from the country’s east coast, and one traveled about 500 miles before falling into the sea. The second missile blew up in flight.

U.S. military and civilian intelligence agencies have stepped up monitoring of North Korea in anticipation of further provocations.

Among the possible coming provocations, according to defense officials, are North’s Korea’s first flight tests of either the KN-08 road-mobile intercontinental ballistic missile, or the new intermediate-range Musudan missile. Both missiles have been fully developed but have not been flight tested.

There are also indications the North may conduct another underground nuclear test.
“There are a lot of signs that something is going to happen,” one official said.

Japan’s Fuji television reported Friday that a U.S. Air Force Cobra Ball reconnaissance aircraft was deployed to Kadena Air Base on Okinawa as part of stepped up monitoring of North Korean missile launches.

The Pentagon’s most recent annual report on the North Korean military said the rogue nation’s development of SLBMs aims at creating multiple delivery systems for nuclear weapons.

“North Korea’s pursuit of a submarine-launched ballistic missile capability also highlights the regime’s commitment to diversifying its missile force, strengthening the missile force’s survivability, and finding new ways to coerce its neighbors,” the report said.

In addition to the SLBM, North Korea’s long-range nuclear-capable missiles include the Taepodong-2 and the KN-08.

“The KN-08, an IRBM, and an SLBM have not been flight-tested and their current reliability as weapon systems would be low,” the Pentagon said.

The report said North Korea attempted a flight test of its SLBM in November “but it ended in failure.”

“North Korea is committed to developing a long-range, nuclear-armed missile that is capable of posing a direct threat to the United States,” the report said.

Defense officials said the development of the KN-11 SLBM remains a high-priority missile development program and the weapon could be fielded in the next two years.

A Washington research institute, 38 North, published satellite photographs last week revealing continued work at Sinpo on both the KN-11 and the Gorae.

The photos indicate that a removable tower was moved to a test stand capable of supporting a rocket engine, missile or launch tube and then later removed. A report said the test stand is a sign that North Korea could “quickly conduct a pop-up test” of a missile.

The report said unspecified work on the Gorae submarine over the past two months was completed.

North Korean supreme leader Kim Jong Un was photographed by state-run media on Sunday observing large-scale North Korean military exercises.

Last week, North Korean media showed Kim with a metal sphere—purportedly a missile-sized nuclear warhead. He was also photographed at a test of a metal shield that would reportedly be used to protect nuclear warheads from the heat of reentry into the atmosphere after launch through space on a ballistic missile.
 

Housecarl

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http://federalnewsradio.com/army/2016/03/army-experiment-new-blended-units-active-reserve-forces/

Army to experiment with new blended units of active, reserve forces

By Jared Serbu | @jserbuWFED
March 22, 2016 7:12 pm

The Army said Tuesday that it will begin testing a new process to co-mingle elements of its active duty force with National Guardsmen and reservists, aiming to make the active and reserve components as compatible during peacetime training as they have been in wartime during the latter years of the Iraq and Afghanistan wars.

The pilot project, dubbed “Associated Units,” borrows heavily from a longstanding Air Force practice in which Air National Guard and active duty airmen share responsibility for piloting and maintaining aircraft at a given base. The Air Force expanded the concept last month by beginning to integrate its chains of command through a new “Integrated Wing.”

By this summer, a dozen Army units will be part of active-reserve associations. In some cases, active component units will host smaller elements made of up reservists, in other cases the opposite will be true.

The soldiers “will develop relationships and standards in home station so they may fight together in combat without having to meet on the battlefield and figure these things out,” said Lt. Gen. Timothy Kadavy, the director of the Army National Guard.

In the first pilot, Task Force 1-28, an active duty infantry battalion at Fort Benning, Georgia will be folded into the 48th Infantry Brigade Combat Team, part of the Georgia National Guard. Both will fall under the command of the 3rd Infantry Division, an active duty division based at Fort Stewart, Georgia.

“They would train together, do professional development classes together, do field training exercises together,” Gen. Mark Milley, the Army chief of staff said last week as he outlined the concept before the House Armed Services Committee. “What we’re trying to do is put teeth behind the idea of ‘total force’ and make that real, to walk the walk, not just talk the talk.”

Following the test with the Georgia units, the Army plans to try the Associated Units notion in 11 other locations according to a map the service released Tuesday. In each of the pilot locations, the Army tries to pair active duty forces with National Guard and reserve units that are physically nearby.

For example, in Hawaii, the Army Reserve’s 442 Infantry Regiment will be paired up with the active component’s 3rd Brigade Combat Team at Schofield Barracks. In the northeast, the Vermont Army National Guard’s 86th brigade combat team will be associated with the 10th Mountain Division at Fort Drum, New York.

“This pilot facilitates readiness and strategic depth across components,” Lt. Gen. Jeffrey Talley, the chief of the Army Reserve, said in a statement. “These units will train, build readiness, and ultimately fight as one Army.”

In its final report in January, the congressionally-chartered National Commission on the Future of the Army strongly recommended that officials create more cohesion between active and reserve units in order to relieve tensions between the three Army components and to make better use of manpower as the Army continues to downsize to its smallest overall size since World War II.

“The Army has a long history of mixed results using multicomponent units … in many cases, the Army tried to implement multicomponent constructions in units or with policies that were not suited to the model,” the authors wrote. “Despite the challenges, multicomponent units represent one of the best ways to develop one Army, especially if members of the units can train together in peacetime and, if necessary, fight together in war. Multicomponent units can also draw on the differing strengths of the Regular Army, the Army National Guard, and the Army Reserve in ways that improve readiness.”

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http://www.armytimes.com/story/mili...22/army-halts-cuts-airborne-brigade/82100776/

Army halts cuts to airborne brigade

Michelle Tan, Army Times 9:57 a.m. EDT March 22, 2016

It’s official: the Army will delay cutting its only airborne brigade combat team in the Pacific.

The 4th Brigade Combat Team, 25th Infantry Division, stationed at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson, Alaska, was due to be converted into a smaller, battalion-sized task force. The move was part of sweeping cuts being made across the Army due to budget cuts; the Army in July announced the brigade was one of two scheduled to be converted. The conversion would have cut the brigade from about 4,000 soldiers down to about 1,050.

“The 4/25 is ready to rapidly deploy and conduct decisive operations in urban and mountainous environments,” Acting Army Secretary Patrick Murphy said in a statement Monday. “Given continued Russian aggression, the nuclear provocations of North Korea, and the continued threat from ISIL, we need this capability.”

In February, Army Chief of Staff Gen. Mark Milley testified on Capitol Hill that he wants to defer for “at least one year” any decision to convert the brigade.

“I think it would be contrary to U.S. national security interests to go ahead and pull out 4/25 at this time,” Milley said Feb. 24 while testifying in front of the Senate Armed Services Committee.

Milley, in response to a question from Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski, said he conducted “pretty intensive study” over the last four to six months and cited Russian aggression not only in Europe but “in the Pacific, and, specifically, in the Arctic” for guiding his recommendation.

“We can’t predict the future, but we want that capability in the kit bag,” Milley said at the time. “We’ve got a national capability there that I think is worthwhile keeping. I think we need to at least keep them for an additional year.”

ARMY TIMES

Alaska-based airborne brigade could be spared from cuts


On Monday, Milley, in a statement, called the brigade “one of the most trained and ready units in the United States Army.”

Lawmakers from Alaska on Monday applauded the Army’s decision. The lawmakers have pushed back against the cut, arguing that the brigade, with its airborne and extreme cold-weather fighting capabilities, provides the Army with an invaluable asset.

“Because of this decision, the Army sent a strong message that America remains dedicated to our rebalance to the Asia-Pacific, understands our leading role in the Arctic, and is unyielding in our support for our critical alliances with Japan and South Korea,” Sen. Dan Sullivan, R-Alaska, said in a statement. “It also sent a message that our communities in Alaska are the most supportive too our military in the country. We have more work to do, and we will remain vigilant until the entire 4-25 stays in Alaska for good.”

Murkowski, who called the initial decision to cut the brigade “shortsighted,” said that in light of North Korea’s provocative actions and Russian aggression, “maintaining Army strength in Alaska right now is the right answer.”

Senior Army leaders also have expressed concern that a force of about 1,050 soldiers is too small to conduct a joint forcible entry exercise. In February, the brigade traveled to the Joint Readiness Training Center at Fort Polk, Louisiana, for their combat training center rotation. To kick off the training, the unit conducted a joint forcible entry exercise using a force of about 1,600 paratroopers.

A joint forcible entry operation calls for troops to seize and hold an airfield or other hostile area, which is then used to allow for subsequent troops and materiel to flow into the area.

The intent of the JRTC validation exercise, which U.S. Army Alaska officials called a success, was to help inform senior leaders as they considered what to do with the brigade.
 

Housecarl

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http://www.realcleardefense.com/art..._to_sharpen_natos_spearhead_force_109166.html

March 22, 2016

It's Time to Sharpen NATO's 'Spearhead' Force

By Robbie Gramer


Funding issues and decision-making challenges may render obsolete NATO’s “spearhead” force, which was set up in response to Russia’s military aggression along its eastern flank.

This is another critical gap for NATO given Russia’s ramped up pressure on Eastern Europe, a move that has many Alliance officials even more worried after Russian President Vladimir Putin’s recent military intervention in Syria.

As NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe, US Air Force Gen. Philip M. Breedlove, summed up before Congress in February: “Russia’s aggressive foreign policy toward Ukraine and the Baltic States amplifies a general sense of unease among NATO’s eastern flank members.”

Russia has probed and tested NATO territory through airspace violations—NATO jets were scrambled to respond to such violations 160 times last year—sea incursions, and massive military exercises in a tense security atmosphereunseen since the Cold War.

Conceptualized in 2014, a brigade-size force, known as the “Very High Readiness Joint Task Force” (VJTF), was intended to come into operation in early 2016 and serve as NATO’s first responders in any potential conflict.

NATO developed the VJTF as part of comprehensive new policy measures and a defense planning package known as the “Readiness Action Plan.” While bold in intent, some elements of the Readiness Action Plan faltered from the start.

The VJTF, widely seen as the cornerstone of the action plan, is the prime example.

Firstly, the VJTF’s size does not pose a credible deterrent to Russia, particularly with regard to the Baltic States, which are widely viewed as the flash point for any potential NATO-Russia confrontation. Russia has undertaken massive impromptu military exercises involving up to 100,000 troops along its borders with the Baltic States. It would be difficult for a NATO force of 5,000 to deter Russia from afar.

Secondly, the VJTF may not be financially sustainable as NATO’s coffers dwindle. Only five of NATO’s twenty-eight member states meet their two-percent of GDP defense spending commitment. The array of new threats facing Europe, from the east as well as the north and south, has slowed the financial hemorrhaging, but has failed to reverse the trend. As a new Atlantic Council studyoutlines, Europe’s militaries are now hollowed out to the point where they are incapable of conducting exercises, let alone deploying in new operations.

Keeping the VJTF consistently ready to deploy within two to five days as NATO planners envisage requires significant defense capabilities and financial commitments. Alliance members may lack both, which does not augur well for the spearhead force. As Richard Shirreff, NATO’s former Deputy Supreme Allied Commander Europe, said, “unless [the VJTF] is a standing force—trained and ready, with permanently allocated units and a fixed command structure—it will be useless.”

A larger force of 40,000, the NATO Response Force (NRF), would, in theory, be on hand to shore up any VTJF deployment after the first days of a crisis. But the NRF faces the same readiness and capability challenges that the VJTF has on a larger scale. One German NRF unit infamously used painted broomsticks to cover machine-gun shortages during an NRF exercise. With a perennial dearth of funding for equipment, it is unclear how long it could take to fully mobilize the NRF, if it could even be mobilized to its full strength at all.

Beyond these problems, the VJTF can only be deployed when NATO’s decision-making body, the North Atlantic Council, agrees to deploy it on a full-consensus basis. Getting twenty-eight member nations to all agree on military action can be painstakingly difficult, if not impossible. NATO took a week to decide to intervene in Libya once the United Nations gave the green light for the mission. Initiating an operation in Libya is a far cry from one involving Russia, where NATO decision-makers would be contemplating a potentially large-scale confrontation with a strong military and nuclear power. For the Baltic region, where Russia can mobilize tens of thousands of troops quickly for “snap” exercises, such a decision may come a week too late.

Putin learned from Russia’s experience in Ukraine that obfuscating his country’s direct involvement in a conflict plays to his advantage. An overt attack may prompt a swift NATO response and VJTF deployment. But an incursion that falls below NATO’s bedrock Article 5 threshold—a “hybrid warfare” scenario—would delay decisive action. If NATO can’t agree to deploy the VJTF to confront or preempt a threat, then it becomes obsolete.

Additionally, NATO has only one VJTF to deploy at a time. As the downing of a Russian bomber on the Turkey-Syria border last year demonstrated, a potential NATO-Russia confrontation could start well south of the Baltic States. A VJTF deployed to the Baltic region could leave NATO’s southern flank exposed, which is all the more worrying considering Russia’s military resurgence in the Black and Mediterranean Seas.

The VJTF’s shortcomings are difficult to overcome because they are manifestations of NATO’s larger structural problems. But the problems are not insurmountable. NATO could delegate authority to its top military commander—the Supreme Allied Commander Europe—to deploy the VJTF and bypass the onerous bureaucratic process of a North Atlantic Council decision. The Alliance could station more support troops along with its prepositioned equipment in the Baltic States and Poland to lay the groundwork for the VJTF to hit the ground running once deployed. Additionally, it could bolster other elements of its deterrence by focusing on improving the NRF follow-on force and updating NATO’s nuclear policy—a politically difficult, yet necessary step.

The fact that NATO got as far as to create the VJTF is no small measure given the financial and political constraints facing the Alliance. While it appears a strong political showcase of Alliance solidarity, the VJTF lacks the military strength to truly deter or respond to a crisis on NATO’s borders, if NATO even agrees to deploy it in the first place. The VJTF should be high on the agenda of the Alliance’s seminal Warsaw Summit in July, and for good reason. Russia has become emboldened by its military forays in Ukraine and Syria. In the unlikely event it sets its sights on NATO territory next, NATO must ensure its spearhead force is sharp enough to respond.

Robbie Gramer is an Associate Director of the Transatlantic Security Initiative at the Atlantic Council’s Brent Scowcroft Center on International Security.


This article originally appeared at Atlantic Council.
 
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