Solar Grand Solar Minimum part deux

northern watch

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northern watch

TB Fanatic
Major power outages reported in Chihuahua, Mexico due to winter storm with record-breaking low temperatures

Mauricio Casillas
kvia.com
Mon, 15 Feb 2021 18:39 UTC

snow
A massive power outage is affecting most of Juárez and several other towns and cities in the state of Chihuahua.

The National Center of Energy Control (CENAC) tweeted Monday morning that it is working on fixing an issue with its generators in the north and northeastern parts of the country.

An ABC-7 viewer in Juárez said she's been without power since 6:45 a.m.

CENACE is asking residents in Chihuahua, Coahuila, Durango, Nuevo León, Sinaloa, Sonora and Tamaulipas to reduce their energy use in an effort to help stabilize the power grid.



CENACE is asking residents in Chihuahua, Coahuila, Durango, Nuevo León, Sinaloa, Sonora and Tamaulipas to reduce their energy use in an effort to help stabilize the power grid.​

ABC-7's news partners in Juárez, Canal 44, report that major cities like Chihuahua and Monterrey are also without power.

The power outages come as the Borderland has been blanketed by snow and record-breaking low temperatures.

snow


Major power outages reported in Chihuahua, Mexico due to winter storm with record-breaking low temperatures -- Earth Changes -- Sott.net
 

northern watch

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Oil refineries shut as Texas energy industry reels from deep freeze
By Arpan Varghese
FEBRUARY 15, 202110:50 AM UPDATED 4 HOURS AGO

(Reuters) - A deep freeze across Texas over the weekend took a toll on the energy industry in the largest U.S. crude-producing state, shutting oil refineries and forcing restrictions from natural gas pipeline operators.

The cold snap prompted the state’s electric grid operator to impose rotating blackouts, while President Joe Biden declared an emergency on Monday, unlocking federal assistance to Texas.

Texas produces roughly 4.6 million barrels of oil a day and is home to some of the nation’s largest refineries, spread throughout the Gulf Coast. In Midland, heart of the U.S. Permian shale region, temperatures were in the single digits Fahrenheit.

Motiva Enterprises said it was shutting down its Port Arthur, Texas, manufacturing complex, which includes its refinery. Motiva’s Port Arthur refinery produces more than 630,000 barrels of product per day, making it the largest refinery in the United States.

Citgo Petroleum Corp said some units at its 167,500 barrel-per-day (bpd) Corpus Christi, Texas, refinery were being shut.

Sources familiar with plant operations earlier said the crude distillation unit, a reformer and a hydrotreater were shut by cold weather at the refinery, with all other units also being powered down.

The cold snap also forced Lyondell Basell’s 263,776 bpd Houston refinery to operate at minimum production, and also shut most units at Marathon’s 585,000 bpd Galveston Bay plant.

But Exxon’s 369,024 bpd Beaumont, Texas, refinery seemed to be operating at normal levels, although the company had warned nearby residents of flaring from the plant.

“We are also getting reports of power outages across the Permian, which are expected to continue over the weekend if the current weather system persists. This may result in intermittent production shut-ins, with a moderate impact on Permian oil production expected in February,” Rystad Energy’s head of oil markets, Bjornar Tonhaugen said in a note. [O/R]

Energy distribution was stalled across large parts of the United States.

Kinder Morgan’s Natural Gas Pipeline Co. reported capacity constraints at various locations on its pipeline system, while Enable Gas Transmission, announced it was taking measures to ensure adequate supply for customers. [PIPE/OUT]

Oil pipeline operator Enbridge Inc. on Monday said a 585,000 barrel per day crude oil pipeline that runs from its terminal near Pontiac, Illinois, outside of Chicago, to the largest U.S. oil storage hub in Cushing, Oklahoma, was halted because of power outages.

“Crews are working with electric utility providers to restore power to Line 59,” as the pipeline is called, said Enbridge spokesman Michael Barnes. “The power failure is due to the winter storm the U.S. is experiencing.”

Reporting by Arpan Varghese in Bengaluru; Additional reporting by Gary McWilliams in Houston; Editing by Andrea Ricci

Oil refineries shut as Texas energy industry reels from deep freeze | Reuters
 

northern watch

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Cold weather front hits Greece, with snow in Athens

A cold weather front has hit Greece, sending temperatures plunging from the low 20s Celsius (around 70 Fahrenheit) on Friday to well below freezing on Monday, and seeing snowfall in central Athens

By The Associated Press
15 February 2021, 03:02

On Location: Feb. 15, 2021



ATHENS, Greece -- A cold weather front has hit Greece, sending temperatures plunging from the low 20s Celsius (around 70 Fahrenheit) on Friday to well below freezing on Monday, and seeing snowfall in central Athens.

Authorities appealed to the public to restrict their movements outside to the essential only, while the main highway leading north out of the capital was shut due to snowfall.

Temperatures in part of Kozani in northern Greece fell to as low as minus 20 degrees Celsius (minus 4 Fahrenheit) while gale force north winds battered Greece’s islands, with gusts reaching 118 kilometers per hour (73 miles per hour)
.

Power cuts were reported in the Sporades islands in the Aegean. Government spokesman Christos Tarantilis said crews were working to restore electricity, after the cuts were apparently caused by trees falling onto power lines.

Heavy snowfall was predicted for central, southern and eastern Greece over the next day, including in the capital and on the southern island of Crete.

While snow is common in Greece’s north and its mountains during the winter, it is infrequent on the islands and in the center of the capital.

Cold weather front hits Greece, with snow in Athens - ABC News (go.com)
 

Windwood

Contributing Member
What if spring doesn't come at the usual time. Here in SW La. we are usually getting ready to plant and have planted by April 1st. What if this year it's too cold to plant so we have to wait until April or May? Seems like everything is changing now. We'll just have to watch and wait. If we can't plant until April or May, believe me, that will get people's attemtion!

TxGal and Martinhouse, you guys are in my prayers as well as all our other forum family that is enduring this mess. I know you guys are cold, animals are cold and we're all just trying to survive this. My brother lives in Katy, TX. His power had been out since 2:30am. Please be well, do all you can to keep warm. Due for another batch Wednesday night
Don't know if you ladies will be getting it to or not. Never seen ThunderSnow, but we had it early this AM. High today 27* and low tonight (on the Gulf coast) of 11*. Merciful Lord please help us all!!
 

Martinhouse

Deceased
Windwood, I am definitely getting it here. We have over 6" so far and looks like after this super cold night, will be getting lots more. Tonight's overnight low is now predicted to be -3. Thgen it will warm a little and then single digit low again Thursday night. Then finally some decent warming. Usually this time of year we start seeing a few daffodils blooming on south-facing banks along the roadsides. Sure not seeing any this year! They aren't there at all yet, even under the snow!

I'm worried about a late spring too, but am more worried about what for me might be a non-existent summer. I need it to be VERY warm to be comfortable and I only had that for two or three weeks last summer.
 

TxGal

Day by day
What if spring doesn't come at the usual time. Here in SW La. we are usually getting ready to plant and have planted by April 1st. What if this year it's too cold to plant so we have to wait until April or May? Seems like everything is changing now. We'll just have to watch and wait. If we can't plant until April or May, believe me, that will get people's attemtion!

TxGal and Martinhouse, you guys are in my prayers as well as all our other forum family that is enduring this mess. I know you guys are cold, animals are cold and we're all just trying to survive this. My brother lives in Katy, TX. His power had been out since 2:30am. Please be well, do all you can to keep warm. Due for another batch Wednesday night
Don't know if you ladies will be getting it to or not. Never seen ThunderSnow, but we had it early this AM. High today 27* and low tonight (on the Gulf coast) of 11*. Merciful Lord please help us all!!
Thanks, Windwood. Martinhouse and we seem to be having very similar weather, although she's more north than us and her effects more severe. Very sorry to hear what your brother is going through. Almost everyone is going through the same thing in the state, but that won't help anyone feel any better. I'm getting more and more concerned when the 'thaw' arrives in a few days and everyones pipes reveal they're blown. Gosh, that could be for most people in the state! Plumbing repair parts, along with HVAC repairs/replacements will be off the chart in price and lack of availability.

We're now looking at 0 tonight, hopefully not into single digits. Tomorrow evening we're back in a winter storm warning for 12-24 hrs of freezing rain.

Martinhouse, I'm also concerned about this year's gardening efforts. I haven't planted my seed potatoes yet, but we did have some daffodil and hyacinth bulbs showing up. I'm also worried about our fruit trees, not that anyone can do anything about it.

I'm really worried about the loss of any winter crops being grown right now.
 

northern watch

TB Fanatic
Texas freeze leaves millions in north Mexico without power
Freezing weather in Texas has led to a chain of events that left almost 5 million customers in northern Mexico without power as a shortage of natural gas disrupted electricity production

By The Associated Press
15 February 2021, 16:10

MEXICO CITY -- Freezing weather in Texas led to a chain of events that left almost 5 million customers in northern Mexico without power Monday as a shortage of natural gas disrupted electricity production.

Mexico’s government-owned utility, the Federal Electricity Commission, said its operations were left short as the winter storm in Texas froze natural gas pipelines. It said some private power plants also began shutting down Sunday night. Private plants supply about 80% of power in northern
Mexico.

Mexico uses gas to generate about 60% of its power, compared to about 40% in the United States. Mexico built pipelines to take advantage of cheap natural gas from the U.S., often obtained by fracking in Texas, but Mexico does not allow fracking in its own territory.

The utility said U.S. electricity demand also rose as temperatures plunged across the border, leading to much higher prices. It said gas prices had risen from about $3 per million BTUs to as much as $600 in recent days.

The commission said that by midday Monday it had restored power to about 65% of the 4.8 million customers affected by the blackout, mainly in the northern border states of Chihuahua, Coahuila, Nuevo Leon and Tamaulipas. A smaller number of users were also affected in Durango and Zacatecas.

The commission said it was seeking to make up for the shortfall by bringing on line more electricity from hydroelectric and coal-fired plants as well as gas supplied by tanker ships.

The utility's director of fuel purchasing, Miguel Reyes Hernández, suggested that what happened in Texas was a perfect storm of factors that choked off imports of gas that Mexico uses to run many of its power plants.

“Electricity demand in the United States rose by a little over 20% in just four days," Reyes Hernández said. "The increase was due precisely to the drop in temperatures, and obviously the use of heating in the United States meant an increase in natural gas demand on the one hand, and precisely because of the low temperatures, there was a decrease in renewable energy.”

He said U.S. wind turbines “had their blades frozen ... and there was freezing in many pipelines and even at wells.”

It was the latest embarrassing failure for the Federal Electricity Commission, the government utility that has become a pet project for President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who wants to reduce the role of private power generation.

In January, the utility acknowledged it had presented a falsified report on a Dec. 28 blackout, which it had blamed on a purported brush fire beneath transmission lines that caused the two-hour power failure affecting one-fourth of Mexico’s customers.

López Obrador has not only defended the state-owned company, but he is seeking to eliminate competition from cleaner, privately built generating plants and renewable energy.

In January, he proposed a bill that would put cleaner, natural gas and renewable private plants — many built with foreign investment — last in line for electricity purchases. The private and renewable energy plants were encouraged by López Obrador’s predecessors in order to reduce carbon emissions.

López Obrador sought in an executive order in 2020 to shore up the government utility by limiting permits to bring other companies' power plants online, including some wind and solar facilities. The president contends green-energy incentives give those plants an unfair advantage over the state utility.

With electricity use down overall during the pandemic, the state utility faces declining revenue and increasing stocks of fuel oil it has to burn in power plants. It has also come under pressure to buy coal from domestic mines.


Texas freeze leaves millions in north Mexico without power - ABC News (go.com)
 

Windwood

Contributing Member
Thanks, Windwood. Martinhouse and we seem to be having very similar weather, although she's more north than us and her effects more severe. Very sorry to hear what your brother is going through. Almost everyone is going through the same thing in the state, but that won't help anyone feel any better. I'm getting more and more concerned when the 'thaw' arrives in a few days and everyones pipes reveal they're blown. Gosh, that could be for most people in the state! Plumbing repair parts, along with HVAC repairs/replacements will be off the chart in price and lack of availability.

We're now looking at 0 tonight, hopefully not into single digits. Tomorrow evening we're back in a winter storm warning for 12-24 hrs of freezing rain.

Martinhouse, I'm also concerned about this year's gardening efforts. I haven't planted my seed potatoes yet, but we did have some daffodil and hyacinth bulbs showing up. I'm also worried about our fruit trees, not that anyone can do anything about it.

I'm really worried about the loss of any winter crops being grown right now.
Hello TxGal. About the winter crops....I had to plant my fall garden from seeds I had on hand because we had 2 devastating hurricanes and there was not ONE place within 100 miles that had plants. All my garden came from seeds. I had cabbage, Swiss chard, carrots, turnips, rutabegas, collard greens, lettuce and green onions.

I grew them all from seeds and prayed over my garden every step of the way. Good reason to have seeds.

I worry about you and Martinhouse because it's just so cold and I infer she may be living alone. I pray for you both. I'm also concerned for your animals and hers.

This weather is completely unprecedented in this part of the Gulf coast. I am about 30 miles, as the crow flys, from the coast. We've never been this cold. Tonight Entergy has started rolling blackouts. My lights have not gone out so far, but I'm afraid they will. We are ready as far as supplies and generator. It's just so,so cold. I pray my chickens survive the night. I have placed extra 250 watt heat lamps in their house and covered the windows with extra heavy thick plastic. I closed their door so they cannot go outside and to hold the heat in.

I will continue to pray for you and Martinhouse and all the other forum members I don't even know that we will all survive this horrible cold! Take care! God loves us all and is watching over us! Blessings!!!
 

Martinhouse

Deceased
TxGal and others,

Some years ago we had a winter storm with super low temps and along with the deepest snow in ages (around 18") it was super cold and almost EVERYTHING froze up. I was using my electric skillet to melt some of that snow which was luckily very clean, because my pump lines froze and broke. No power outages that time in my area.....more luck there. I found out later that all of Arkansas had run out of the necessary sizes of PVC pipe and fittings.

The point to this post is to urge all of you who can get out and about to think about going ASAP to get what repair items you may need to replace broken plumbing of any type when things finally thaw back out.
 

Martinhouse

Deceased
Well, for all my big talk and advice about frozen water lines I just got my comeuppance! I turned on the kitchen faucet to rinse out my mug and nothing came out of it. Guess the light in the pump house burned out. No way I could manage to go out in the cold and dark to replace the bulb right now, so I'll just go to bed and worry about it tomorrow when worrying might be more productive. I do have plenty of jugged up water for myself, and critters and flushing and sponge-bathing. I just hope the freezing isn't where it could do serious expensive damage.

Doggone!!!!! Oh, well, it could be worse, couldn't it? For now I still have power and am very grateful for that.

G'night, all.
 

TxGal

Day by day
Well, for all my big talk and advice about frozen water lines I just got my comeuppance! I turned on the kitchen faucet to rinse out my mug and nothing came out of it. Guess the light in the pump house burned out. No way I could manage to go out in the cold and dark to replace the bulb right now, so I'll just go to bed and worry about it tomorrow when worrying might be more productive. I do have plenty of jugged up water for myself, and critters and flushing and sponge-bathing. I just hope the freezing isn't where it could do serious expensive damage.

Doggone!!!!! Oh, well, it could be worse, couldn't it? For now I still have power and am very grateful for that.

G'night, all.

Oh my gosh, I'm so sorry! You did absolutely everything you could, this is just beyond anything most people can work around. At least you were well-prepared and had water stored up.

We woke up to I think 1 degree this morning. We're still dripping so I hope we're okay, but I know flat out that there could be a frozen pipe despite all the dripping...happened to us in San Antonio one year and we blew a pipe in the garage.

We've been dripping and catching most of that hot water....some in jugs, some in the sink in a dishtub so I continually wash any dishes we've used. We have one outside faucet that may well freeze up, we've done everything we can so we'll just deal with it as problems occur after the thaw.

Sun is up this morning, we're supposed to begin a very, very slow warm-up. Prayers for everyone affected by this historic cold weather!
 

TxGal

Day by day
Frozen wind turbines (nearly half of them) hamper Texas power output - Ice Age Now

Frozen wind turbines (nearly half of them) hamper Texas power output
February 15, 2021 by Robert

Nearly half of Texas’ installed wind power generation capacity has been offline because of frozen wind turbines in West Texas, according to Texas grid operators.

Wind farms across the state generate up to a combined 25,100 megawatts of energy. But unusually moist winter conditions in West Texas brought on by the weekend’s freezing rain and historically low temperatures have iced many of those wind turbines to a halt.

As of Sunday morning, those iced turbines comprise 12,000 megawatts of Texas’ installed wind generation capacity, although those West Texas turbines don’t typically spin to their full generation capacity this time of year.

Millions of electricity customers across Texas suffered blackouts, partly due to the problems with the turbines, as the Washington Post reported:

Millions of households in Texas are suffering rolling power blackouts for the first time in a decade as an unprecedented Arctic freeze wrought chaos in U.S. energy markets.

The largest cities from Houston to San Antonio were without power for spells of up to an hour at a time as supplies in the U.S.’s second largest state fluctuated wildly.

The power crunch is being compounded by a lack of wind generation to help ease the load with output more than halving to 4.2 gigawatts from earlier. Wind turbines may freeze in bitterly cold weather, reducing efficiency and the blades can ultimately stopping spinning.


Wind power has been the fastest-growing source of energy in Texas’ power grid. In 2015 winder power generation supplied 11% of Texas’ energy grid. Last year it supplied 23% and overtook coal as the system’s second-largest source of energy after natural gas.

Frozen wind turbines hamper Texas power output, state's electric grid operator says
 

TxGal

Day by day
Texas Deploys National Guard As Millions Freeze In Darkness - Ice Age Now

Texas Deploys National Guard As Millions Freeze In Darkness
February 15, 2021 by Robert

Power crisis. Seventeen states institute rolling blackouts “like a third world country.”

_______________

  • The Weather Channel Warns Of “Dangerous” Cold Temperatures
  • Southwest Power Pool Says 17 States Limiting Energy Usage
  • 3.368 million Texans Without Power
  • Texas Gov. Greg Abbott Calls Up Texas Army National Guard
  • Oncor Electric Delivery Continues To Warn About Extended “Controlled Outages”
  • Southwest Power Pool Declares Energy Emergency Alert Level 3
  • Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner Warns Of More Blackouts
  • Oncor Electric Delivery Extends Rolling Blackouts
The Southwest Power Pool (SSP), which manages the electric grid and wholesale power market for the central US, including Kansas, Oklahoma, portions of New Mexico, Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana, South Dakota, North Dakota, Montana, Missouri, Minnesota, Iowa, Wyoming, and Nebraska, released an update Monday afternoon saying 17 states have “curtailed energy usage to balance supply and demand.”

More record lows are expected for Tuesday morning across Texas. If ERCOT doesn’t secure additional power generation – more blackouts may occur.

Frigid air continues to pour into the central US, overwhelming power grids, forcing operators to implement rolling blackouts like a third world country.

CBS Austin’s Melanie Torre reports Gov. Greg Abbott has called up the Texas Army National Guard “to conduct welfare checks and to assist local authorities in transitioning Texans in need to one of the 135 local warming centers across Texas.”

Oncor Electric Delivery, Texas’ largest transmission and electric distribution utility, published another statement on its Twitter account detailing how “unprecedented shortfall of electric generation” will continue to extend “controlled outages” due to “emergency grid conditions & severe cold weather.”

Full statement:

The TX power system is currently facing an unprecedented shortfall of electric generation. @ERCOT_ISO has requested Oncor & utilities across TX to implement controlled power outages to reduce high demand & protect the integrity of the electric grid.

The length of these controlled outages have been significantly extended due to current emergency grid conditions & severe cold weather. These outages are taking place across the service territory & ERCOT has said they could be required through Tues

We are asking all Oncor customers to be prepared to be without power for an extended period of time
.

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/grid-chaos-2-million-texans-without-power-rolling-bl ackout-begin
 

TxGal

Day by day
Blackouts Cascade Beyond Texas in Spreading Power Crisis - Ice Age Now

Blackouts Cascade Beyond Texas in Spreading Power Crisis
February 15, 2021 by Robert

More than 2 million homes in Texas without power, another 400,000 in Mexico. (At 2½ people per home, that’s 6 million people trying to survive without power.)

Bloomberg News blames “climate change.”

Yeah, its’s climate change alright, but it sure as hell isn’t caused by CO2. How about a sun almost devoid of sunspots?
_______________

Blackouts are spreading across the central U.S. and into Mexico as an energy crisis caused by record cold deepens.

The operator of an electric grid spanning 14 states ordered utilities to start rotating outages to protect the system from failing amid surging demand for electricity.

“In our history as a grid operator, this is an unprecedented event,” the grid operator said in a statement Monday.

The brutal cold striking Texas “is emblematic of a world facing more unpredictable weather due to the rising impact of climate change,” says Bloomberg News. “The outages underscore how as the globe moves away from fossil fuels into an all-electrified system that relies more and more on renewable energy, the grid becomes more vulnerable too.”

In Houston, roads are iced over and there are long lines to refill household propane canisters. Firewood is selling out.

Large swaths of Dallas, Houston and other cities have been plunged into darkness as extreme cold and surging demand for heat pushes generators to the brink. The outages began as controlled, rolling power cuts but have cascaded into prolonged blackouts in some areas.

“We anticipate we will need to continue these controlled outages for the rest of today and perhaps all day tomorrow,” Dan Woodfin, a senior director for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, said during a briefing Monday.

The temperature at 5 a.m. in Houston was 18 degrees Fahrenheit. In the Dallas-Fort Worth area it was 5 degrees Fahrenheit. (It was 4F at my home just south of Fort Worth when the power went out at 6 am.)

Houston may pick up anther as 2 inches (5 cm) of snow overnight, along with ice and sleet, the National Weather Service said. Yet more ice and freezing rain is forecast for Wednesday.

U.S. Power Crisis Leaves Millions Cold, Dark as Blackouts Expand
 

TxGal

Day by day
Massive Winter Storm(s) With Extreme Impacts - Ice Age Now

Massive Winter Storm(s) With Extreme Impacts
February 15, 2021 by Robert

More than 150 million Americans are currently under Winter Advisories as “unprecedented” winter weather continues from coast-to-coast. Widespread record lows expected. Temps may reach between 40-50 degrees below average.
Welcome to the new Grand Solar Minimum.

  • A massive winter storm will lift from the southern Plains to the Northeast through Tuesday with snow, sleet, and freezing rain.
  • Expect significant travel disruptions and power outages.
  • Arctic air with frigid temperatures and dangerous wind chills will remain over the central third of the U.S. this week.
  • Heavy snow (4-8 inches) and significant ice accumulations from Midwest/Tennessee/Ohio Valleys to the Northeast, all the way to Maine tonight.
  • Frigid Arctic air and dangerously cold wind chills to persist in the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley through midweek.
  • Unprecedented winter weather across parts of the southern Continental US.
  • Widespread record low temps expected.
  • Temperatures may reach between 40-50 degrees below average.
  • Possible freezing rain for parts of the Ohio Valley through parts of the coastal Northeast.
  • Potential for 0.1 inches of ice from central Pennsylvania up to southern New England and eastern Maine.
  • Snow totals for Central/Southern Rockies between 8-12 inches with 1-2 feet possible over highest peaks.
  • 4 to -8 inches of snow likely over much of Oklahoma, Arkansas and southern Missouri starting Tuesday night.
  • 1 to 2 feet of snowfall over the mountains of the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies, 2-4 feet for highest peaks likely through Wednesday.
An active weather pattern will continue produce unprecedented winter weather across parts of the southern CONUS. Winter Storm Warnings/Advisories and Ice Warnings extend from eastern/southern Texas through the Mississippi/Ohio/Tennessee Valley, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.

A major winter storm will continue to spread heavy snow across parts of the Midwest and interior Northeast tonight before receding into the Northeast on Tuesday. A wide swath of 4-8 inches of snow will fall from the Ohio Valley to Maine while some isolated areas, particularly points downwind of Lakes Eerie and Ontario, may get up to a foot of snow by Wednesday.

Freezing rain will be a concern for parts of the Ohio Valley through parts of the coastal Northeast. An area of 0.1 inches of ice may accumulate from central Pennsylvania up to southern New England and eastern Maine.

Another system, currently in the Rockies, will move into the Southern Plains tomorrow. This system will spread heavy snow from the Rockies today into the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday and Wednesday. Freezing rain will impact an aerial swath extending from eastern Texas to southwestern Tennessee late Tuesday.

Snow totals for the Central/Southern Rockies may range between 8-12 inches with 1-2 feet possible over the highest peaks through Tuesday. Between 4-8 inches of
snow are likely to fall over much of Oklahoma, Arkansas and southern Missouri starting Tuesday night and extending through Wednesday.

An area of 0.25 inches of freezing rain may develop across the eastern Texas/northern Louisiana region tomorrow. Windy conditions will continue across the Northern/Central Plains.

Significant snowfall over the mountains of the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies to come. Between 1-2 feet of snow is likely to fall over this area with the highest peaks likely to receive between 2-4 feet of snow through Wednesday.

Anomalously cold air will sit over the Plains and Mississippi Valley through Wednesday before high pressure begins to move east. Widespread hi/lo records are expected to be broken tomorrow and Wednesday across the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley where highs and lows may reach between 40-50 degrees below average.

WPC's Short Range Public Discussion
 

TxGal

Day by day
Germany freezing due to snow ‘blanketing millions’ of solar panel - Heavy snowfall grips Istanbul - Soon headed for Athens - Ice Age Now

Germany freezing due to snow ‘blanketing millions’ of solar panel – Heavy snowfall grips Istanbul – Soon headed for Athens
February 14, 2021 by Robert

And 30,000 wind turbines are idle because there is no wind. See video.
___________

Germany is held up as the world’s solar and wind capital by “renewables luvvies” but Germans are freezing through winter due to “millions of solar panels blanketed in snow” and turbines sitting idle, according to Rowan Dean.

View: https://youtu.be/rVD49Oop9tg

Run time is 4:45

“Germany’s long been held up by the likes of these renewable luvvies, they say Germany’s the world’s great wind and solar capital,” Mr Dean said. “But as we speak millions of solar panels are blanketed in snow and 30,000 wind turbines are sitting idle because there’s no wind.

“Freezing Germans shivering in their lederhosen’s are desperate for coal fired power to heat up their wurst and sauerkraut.”

___________

Heavy snowfall grips Istanbul, Turkish Thrace, shuts waterways. FEB 14, 2021

Snow began to fall over Istanbul, Turkey’s most populated city, late Saturday, commencing a week of projected sleet amid fears of a harsh winter the city has not experienced in years

The long-rumored and feared cold front coupled with heavy snowfall arrived in Istanbul after moving in from the country’s northwestern Thrace region.

By midnight, much of the city was covered in white, with the Asian districts of the 15-million megapolis being the last to receive heavy snowfall.

The Turkish State Meteorological Service (TSMS) and Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality’s (IBB) Disaster Coordination Center (AKOM) had previously warned Istanbulites that the snowfall could last for five days with a severe drop in temperatures.

Despite the ongoing weekend and nighttime curfews throughout the nation, traffic levels remain high due to decreased public transport ridership over COVID-19.

A blanket of snow covered much of Istanbul by Sunday morning, which weather forecasts say will increase throughout the day. Except for brief respites, the snowfall is expected to linger until Thursday.

Heavy snowfall grips Istanbul, Turkish Thrace, shuts waterways
 

TxGal

Day by day
The Oppenheimer Ranch Project has a new podcast out:

3.5 Million Americans Without Power - 2.8 Million In Texas Alone - Rolling Blackouts Trough Tuesday - YouTube

3.5 Million Americans Without Power - 2.8 Million In Texas Alone - Rolling Blackouts Trough Tuesday
7,038 views • Premiered 19 hours ago

View: https://youtu.be/7SP8trTV-mY

Run time is 3:49

Synopsis provided:

Massive Winter Storm With Major To Extreme Impacts https://www.weather.gov/
Rotating outages likely to last through Tuesday, ERCOT says http://bit.ly/3qnOhMT
Power Outage Live Map https://poweroutage.us/
GFS Model Total Snow http://bit.ly/3jQDnwx
 

TxGal

Day by day
Another from Oppenheimer:

Record Snow, Ice and Cold Unseen For Decades Engulfs The US - Fukushima Quake Rumbles Old Wounds - YouTube

Record Snow, Ice and Cold Unseen For Decades Engulfs The US - Fukushima Quake Rumbles Old Wounds
11,936 views • Premiered Feb 15, 2021

View: https://youtu.be/EdAngdsQ2cc

Run time is 13:48

Synopsis provided:

Winter storms stretch from coast to coast, impacting 100 million people http://cnn.it/2Nw0DUg
Storms Bring Punishing Cold, Snow and Ice From Coast to Coast http://nyti.ms/3alUHqg
Oklahoma City massive pileup forces highway closure after icy roads send cars flying http://fxn.ws/3qlGkaZ
Fort Worth accident leaves 6 dead, dozens injured in 133-vehicle pileup on interstate after ice storm http://fxn.ws/2N0dZbQ
Polar vortex brings most extreme winter weather in years http://cbsn.ws/3ql4GSc
Texas sees one of its coldest winters in decades as temperatures drop http://bit.ly/3d8B72q
Ice storm risk looms http://bit.ly/3dfIrJM
'Emergency' power conditions may be activated as soon as tonight https://abc13.co/3b1TpQa
Northern counties recovering from ice damage, power outages as rain persists throughout central NC http://bit.ly/3ald4eH
Power Out? https://poweroutage.us/
SNOWFALL ANALYSIS FROM THE LAST 48 HOURS https://www.weather.gov/crh/snowfall
Major Winter Storm to Bring Heavy Snow and Ice from the Southern Plains into the Northeast https://www.weather.gov/
GFS Model Total Snow US http://bit.ly/3qzal7n
GFS Model Thermodynamics http://bit.ly/37fTYEX
Dozens hurt in Fukushima earthquake http://bit.ly/3b3h2Ig
Worldwide Volcano News http://bit.ly/2v9JJhO
and more
 

TxGal

Day by day
Record-Smashing Snow and Ice Storms Leave 5 Million Americans without Power (and counting): "the Situation is Critical" - Electroverse

ATX-Snow-Storm-MG-TT-17-e1613473984486.jpg


RECORD-SMASHING SNOW AND ICE STORMS LEAVE 5 MILLION AMERICANS WITHOUT POWER (AND COUNTING): “THE SITUATION IS CRITICAL”
FEBRUARY 16, 2021 CAP ALLON

The historic Arctic front crippling Texas’s power system, sending energy prices soaring to record levels, is intensifying with at least 5 million people across the U.S. now plunged into darkness, unable to heat their homes.

Polar cold is once again riding anomalously-far south on the back of a weak and wavy meridional jet stream flow–a phenomenon predicted to increase over the coming years/decades as the Grand Solar Minimum (low solar activity) tightens its grip.

Texans are feeling the brunt of this latest blast with over 4 million people across the Lone Star State now left without power in freezing conditions and drifting snow. But even as far up as North Dakota homes are losing power in the midst of an unprecedented deep freeze that continues to break thousands upon thousands of low temperature records, daily.

“I’ve been following energy markets and grid issues for a while, and I cannot recall an extreme weather event that impacted such a large swath of the nation in this manner — the situation is critical,” said Neil Chatterjee, a member of the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission.

North America’s big freeze is just the latest in a chain of extreme cold-weather events that have brought down power grids and upended energy markets globally from Japan, China and Pakistan, to the UK and France in recent months.

Adding to the concerns of Texans’ will be the latest GFS forecast (shown below) which reveals Arctic conditions could run into March (with maybe a brief reprieve Feb. 23 to 26) extending the misery and risking prolonged power outages:

gfs_T2ma_namer_fh-72-360.gif


Even filthy warm-mongers NOAA, with their skewed, UHI-ignoring temperature dataset, can’t hide the cold — according to their latest data point (from Feb. 13–so before this current round of polar cold even took hold) it is revealed that during the previous 7 days a total of 1,916 low temperature records were broken across the U.S. vs just the 100 for record warmth.

And once the numbers for this week’s deep-freeze are included we could be looking at over 6,000+ new low temperature records for the past week alone.

The website coolwx.com has an unofficial animation showing the new low benchmarks set from Feb. 9 to Feb. 16 — check out the influx of new records on Feb. 14, 15 and 16 in particular:


Only cities having an NCDC GSOD recorded history of at least 35 years are shown here [coolwx.com].

I’m sick of the mainstream lies — lies made a thousand times worse due to the climatic reality that is actually barreling towards us.

Heed the warnings laid down from the past: prolonged bouts of low solar activity have ALWAYS lead to global cooling, they have ALWAYS resulted in the fall of empires, and ALWAYS of the catastrophic and widespread failure of harvests.

Today, at a time when Solar Cycle 25 should be “ramping-up” the Sun has instead been eerily quiet — it has been “blank” (devoid of sunspots) for the past 12 consecutive days now (as of Tue, Feb. 16) which makes for 29 spotless days in 2021, or 62%.


The sun is blank–no sunspots (Feb. 16). Credit: SDO/HMI

Prepare.

I’m off to construct a fence around my 5,000 ft² crop patch — pesky sheep.

The COLD TIMES are returning, the mid-latitudes are REFREEZING, in line with the great conjunction, historically low solar activity, cloud-nucleating Cosmic Rays, and a meridional jet stream flow (among other forcings).

Both NOAA and NASA appear to agree, if you read between the lines, with NOAA saying we’re entering a ‘full-blown’ Grand Solar Minimum in the late-2020s, and NASA seeing this upcoming solar cycle (25) as “the weakest of the past 200 years”, with the agency correlating previous solar shutdowns to prolonged periods of global cooling here.

Furthermore, we can’t ignore the slew of new scientific papers stating the immense impact The Beaufort Gyre could have on the Gulf Stream, and therefore the climate overall.





Prepare accordinglylearn the facts, relocate if need be, and grow your own.
 

TxGal

Day by day
Worst Snowfall in 50+ Years Hits Moscow, Manitoba sets 20 New Cold Records on Saturday Alone (in Books Dating Back to 1879), and Cars have been Buried under Snowdrifts in Britain - Electroverse

cold-Manitoba-e1613387853746.jpg


WORST SNOWFALL IN 50+ YEARS HITS MOSCOW, MANITOBA SETS 20 NEW COLD RECORDS ON SATURDAY ALONE (IN BOOKS DATING BACK TO 1879), AND CARS HAVE BEEN BURIED UNDER SNOWDRIFTS IN BRITAIN
FEBRUARY 15, 2021 CAP ALLON

Record cold and snow has buffeted much of the Northern Hemisphere of late: from northern Asia, to the majority of Europe, to practically ALL of North America — the NH is suffering a truly historic winter of 2020/21 as the Grand Solar Minimum intensifies.

At a time when Solar Cycle 25 should be “ramping-up” the Sun has instead been eerily quiet — it has been “blank” (devoid of sunspots) for the past 11 consecutive days now (as of Mon, Feb. 15) which makes for 28 spotless days in 2021, or 61%.



The sun is blank–no sunspots (Feb. 15). Credit: SDO/HMI

Low solar activity has serious implications for our climate via forcings such as cloud-nucleating Cosmic Rays and meridional jet stream flows (to name just two) — the upshot of which is always global cooling

WORST SNOWFALL IN DECADES BURIES MOSCOW

Moscow has been hit with the worst snowstorm in decades, with freak weather disrupting air travel and bringing traffic to a halt, reports rt.com.

The flakes began settling on the Russian capital and its wider metropolitan area on Friday, and continued falling for two straight days. By Saturday, whole park benches were under 2 feet (61 cm) — single-storm snow totals that haven’t been registered in the city for at least 50 years, likely longer as current records (used by rt.com) only date back to 1973.

The conditions, dubbed as “Snow Apocalypse” by many online publications, resulted in the majority of closure of roads across the city.

“It’s a real snowstorm, a snow Armageddon, a snow apocalypse,” said Fobo’s Evgeny Tishkovets when speaking to the state-run RIA news agency.

“This is not a practice alert, but a combat alert,” he continued.

View: https://twitter.com/Kipr2000/status/1360576548949159941

Run time is 0:21 and 0:45

Around 60,000 people were working to clear the streets over the weekend, the Moscow mayor’s office said.

The city’s key Ring Road was clogged with heavy trucks, which traffic managing to move barely a few feet an hour:

View: https://twitter.com/LyudmilaMsk/status/1360602937563701248

Run time is 0:35

The historic snow also led to multiple injuries due to collapsing roofs:

View: https://twitter.com/WildWildMoscow/status/1360593317797494785


MANITOBA SETS 20+ NEW COLD RECORDS ON SATURDAY (IN BOOKS DATING BACK TO 1879)

Canada has seen a host of low temperatures shattered this winter — and on Saturday alone, the extreme cold set more than 20 new lows in Manitoba.

While temperatures for this time of year should be hovering around –20C (-4F), the mercury in Winnipeg plunged to a historic -38.8C (-38F), according to Environment Canada data — a reading which busted the previous all-time record set in 1879 (solar minimum of cycle 12) by a full degree C.

Shoal Lake annihilated its all-time record low from 1970 by over six degrees C, while Norway House hit a new low of -44.4C (-48F) — breaking its previous record by five degrees C and making it the coldest place in Manitoba, said Environment Canada meteorologist Brian Luzny.

“We’re actually breaking records almost every day,” Luzny said. “Quite a few long-standing records and quite a few records broken by a wide margin.”

View: https://twitter.com/JBMEquiFarms/status/1360346802021675010

Luzny added that the neighboring province Saskatchewan also managed to break 17 cold-weather records on Saturday, with both Saskatchewan and Manitoba remaining under “extreme cold weather warnings.”

CARS BURIED UNDER SNOWDRIFTS IN BRITAIN

Last week, the UK recorded its coldest temperature since 1995 (solar minimum of cycle 22) and its lowest February reading since 1955 (solar minimum of cycle 18) when -23C (-9.4F) descended.

During the bout of polar cold, tens of weather stations across the country also set new all-time February lows.

Weather warnings for snow and ice continued through the weekend, too — and on Saturday night, and as reported by the BBC, cars were buried under “huge banks of drifting muddy snow” in the Scottish burgh of Buckie:

View: https://twitter.com/BBCScotlandNews/status/1361037768227495941

Snowplows attempted to clear the stretch of road but were unable to make it through — a story repeated up and down the UK during this winters record breaking blast of cold and snow.


116948924_drift.jpg

Snowplows worked overnight Saturday to clear the A96.

WRAP UP NORTH AMERICA

One final note…

An intense continent-spanning and long-lasting Arctic blast is currently gripping Canada, the United States and Mexico (and is forecast to last into March!):


GFS 2m Temp Anomalies Feb. 12 – Mar. 3 [tropicaltidbits.com].

Prepare.

The COLD TIMES are returning, the mid-latitudes are REFREEZING in line with the great conjunction, historically low solar activity, cloud-nucleating Cosmic Rays, and a meridional jet stream flow (among other forcings).

Both NOAA and NASA appear to agree, if you read between the lines, with NOAA saying we’re entering a ‘full-blown’ Grand Solar Minimum in the late-2020s, and NASA seeing this upcoming solar cycle (25) as “the weakest of the past 200 years”, with the agency correlating previous solar shutdowns to prolonged periods of global cooling here.

Furthermore, we can’t ignore the slew of new scientific papers stating the immense impact The Beaufort Gyre could have on the Gulf Stream, and therefore the climate overall.





Prepare accordinglylearn the facts, relocate if need be, and grow your own.
 

mecoastie

Veteran Member
Texas freeze leaves millions in north Mexico without power
Freezing weather in Texas has led to a chain of events that left almost 5 million customers in northern Mexico without power as a shortage of natural gas disrupted electricity production

By The Associated Press
15 February 2021, 16:10

MEXICO CITY -- Freezing weather in Texas led to a chain of events that left almost 5 million customers in northern Mexico without power Monday as a shortage of natural gas disrupted electricity production.

Mexico’s government-owned utility, the Federal Electricity Commission, said its operations were left short as the winter storm in Texas froze natural gas pipelines. It said some private power plants also began shutting down Sunday night. Private plants supply about 80% of power in northern
Mexico.

Mexico uses gas to generate about 60% of its power, compared to about 40% in the United States. Mexico built pipelines to take advantage of cheap natural gas from the U.S., often obtained by fracking in Texas, but Mexico does not allow fracking in its own territory.

The utility said U.S. electricity demand also rose as temperatures plunged across the border, leading to much higher prices. It said gas prices had risen from about $3 per million BTUs to as much as $600 in recent days.

The commission said that by midday Monday it had restored power to about 65% of the 4.8 million customers affected by the blackout, mainly in the northern border states of Chihuahua, Coahuila, Nuevo Leon and Tamaulipas. A smaller number of users were also affected in Durango and Zacatecas.

The commission said it was seeking to make up for the shortfall by bringing on line more electricity from hydroelectric and coal-fired plants as well as gas supplied by tanker ships.

The utility's director of fuel purchasing, Miguel Reyes Hernández, suggested that what happened in Texas was a perfect storm of factors that choked off imports of gas that Mexico uses to run many of its power plants.

“Electricity demand in the United States rose by a little over 20% in just four days," Reyes Hernández said. "The increase was due precisely to the drop in temperatures, and obviously the use of heating in the United States meant an increase in natural gas demand on the one hand, and precisely because of the low temperatures, there was a decrease in renewable energy.”

He said U.S. wind turbines “had their blades frozen ... and there was freezing in many pipelines and even at wells.”

It was the latest embarrassing failure for the Federal Electricity Commission, the government utility that has become a pet project for President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who wants to reduce the role of private power generation.

In January, the utility acknowledged it had presented a falsified report on a Dec. 28 blackout, which it had blamed on a purported brush fire beneath transmission lines that caused the two-hour power failure affecting one-fourth of Mexico’s customers.

López Obrador has not only defended the state-owned company, but he is seeking to eliminate competition from cleaner, privately built generating plants and renewable energy.

In January, he proposed a bill that would put cleaner, natural gas and renewable private plants — many built with foreign investment — last in line for electricity purchases. The private and renewable energy plants were encouraged by López Obrador’s predecessors in order to reduce carbon emissions.

López Obrador sought in an executive order in 2020 to shore up the government utility by limiting permits to bring other companies' power plants online, including some wind and solar facilities. The president contends green-energy incentives give those plants an unfair advantage over the state utility.

With electricity use down overall during the pandemic, the state utility faces declining revenue and increasing stocks of fuel oil it has to burn in power plants. It has also come under pressure to buy coal from domestic mines.


Texas freeze leaves millions in north Mexico without power - ABC News (go.com)

THis should be telling for everyone. With the Green New Deal on the way frozen turbines and a shortage of natural gas will become the norm. 2/3s of the US natural gas is supplied by fracking. Soon there will be no more fracking. Remember the Dems pushed for clean natural gas power plants to replace dirty coal. The math doesn't work out unless we are cold and in the dark. Get an alternate heat source once this settles out.
 

philkar

Veteran Member
I am a newcomer to this info and am just now reading thru it all so be patient with me! Will there be an immediate change in temps and last frost date? The cold in Texas seems rather abrupt. What changes in your preps are you making? I collect seed specifically with my areas temps and moisture in mind. Is it time to rethink that? TYIA for any help your time allows you to give me.
 

summerthyme

Administrator
_______________
I am a newcomer to this info and am just now reading thru it all so be patient with me! Will there be an immediate change in temps and last frost date? The cold in Texas seems rather abrupt. What changes in your preps are you making? I collect seed specifically with my areas temps and moisture in mind. Is it time to rethink that? TYIA for any help your time allows you to give me.
Truthfully... no one has a clue! If you go back to the first (now closed) GSM thread, there is a ton of info on previous solar minimums, and a lot of discussion and speculation. But right now, it's been 30 degrees warmer here just south of Buffalo NY than it is in Southern Texas and Mississippi- and Iwould never have looked for that!

Summerthyme
 
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