DISASTER China's Three Gorge Dam in Danger

20Gauge

20Gauge

TB Fanatic
Countrymouse said:
When? What's the date of your picture?

I have NOT seen that chute in use before today--and I have been watching the dam, and this thread, CLOSELY, for over a month.

Also (not directed at you, Dannyboy) I'm getting rather tired of the snide comments of late-comers, who expect us to catch them up in 5 seconds on material those of us who've watched this since the beginning have been discussing for weeks.

Here's a screen-shot I just took.View attachment 212857

Something VERY weird is going on and I'd like to hear the comments of the SERIOUS watchers of the dam (Melodi, Doomer Doug, BW -- who I believe has some hydor-engineering experience, etc.) about WHAT this may mean.

We know new heavy rains have been going on upstream of the dam since last week, and should be soon (if not already) reaching the dam.

We know the water level at the back of the dam was at full-pool---175 meters---already the other day.

We know (because Chinese officials finally admitted it) that cavitation has been going on.

We know they've (up to now) been releasing as much water as the dam could stand (and maybe MORE than it could stand) for literally WEEKS---at the risk of flooding cities and farmland downstream---apparently in an effort to keep the dam from being overwhelmed by the descending floodwaters from upstream.

We know we were seeing what appeared to be large pieces of something being ejected from the dam. Some dismissed this as a video glitch--but I find it"interesting" that after it became VERY noticeable that this was happening, suddenly ALL the video feeds went dark, and when they came back up---voila! A new camera angle--zoomed out MUCH farther away---and suddently they are apparently LIMITING the amount of water being released---even though an influx of MORE water is coming from upstream.

And now this--today.

Only two of the six floodgates at the dam itself are open---

And they have opened full tilt some kind of chute that extends FAR out into the area below the dam---

And we have not seen water being released form this area before.


We've seen it being allowed to flow down the locks (before the CCP shut down those pictures and wouldn't let us see them); We've seen them allowing some water-flow down the vertical chutes to each side of the floodgates (and some of the more knowledgeable members here said those were like "relief" chutes that were used to divert overflow when the water is very high on the back side--but --

we have NOT seen this new chute, in any pictures I've seen of the dam to date, putting out water, and water at the rate of the floodgates.

Which begs the question:

1. Why would they CLOSE MORE floodgates, limiting them down to (apparently) only 2---when they've had all 6 going full-tilt for well over a month?
2. Why would they open FEWER floodgates when MORE water is on the way?
3. Why would they open (full-tilt) this new floodgate or chute, while CLOSING the main floodgates?

The only logical explanation I can think of is---

the Dam is (as the CCP hinted at about two weeks ago) seriously damaged--

so even though the waters are rising, they've had to CLOSE floodgates.

Yet, to prevent dam collapse, they're trying to release water another way--thus the new "chute" or whatever it is.


Your thoughts, seasoned watchers of 3GD?
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I have only 5 seconds, can you catch me up?

Just asking?
 
20Gauge

20Gauge

TB Fanatic
Squid said:
This same thing happens at any large business as middle managers try to protect themselves by keeping bad news from the boss that may be a shoot the messenger type. Now multiply corporate politics to a whole freakin country, and throw a good dose of normalcy bias and you have they will likely know and react to the dam failing if and when it does imho.
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In this case literally
 
Grouchy Granny

Grouchy Granny

Deceased
Kayak said:
There are two powerhouses, one on each end of the spillways in the middle. I'm not sure where the water is ejected after it spins the turbines, but it's possible it comes out that jet.

There is an actual lock in the far upper part of the pic, and then a "ship elevator" just above the dam in the pic (before the earthen part on the right. Both have been used to eject water a few times, which is scary because neither was designed for that.
Click to expand...

If you look at the side view of the spillways you will see a concrete wall (there are two, one of either side of the spillway), those are the after bays where the water is discharged from the turbines.

At least some of my dam (or is that damn) knowledge stuck after being in numerous hydro plants over the years.
 
Bubble Head

Bubble Head

Has No Life - Lives on TB
bw said:
Would it be reasonable to surmise that any diver who actually went underwater had a firm grip on the ladder or whatever, waited just under the surface for a few minutes, and reappeared and gave whatever report he'd picked up on as being the desired result?
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No. You can't see anything in that type of water. Current would swipe you away immediately. I have made swift water dives where I was tied to a line and pulled out but the current was no where near what they are dealing with. Without the line tied to me I would not have been able to overcome what current I was dealing with. Remember that you have no weight in the water. That is why they train astronauts in tanks of water.
 
ShadowMan

ShadowMan

Designated Grumpy Old Fart
the-anticipation-is-killing-me


anticipation.jpg
 
bw

bw

Fringe Ranger
Bubble Head said:
No. You can't see anything in that type of water. Current would swipe you away immediately. I have made swift water dives where I was tied to a line and pulled out but the current was no where near what they are dealing with.
Click to expand...

Sorry, you seem to have entirely misunderstood my point.
 
bw

bw

Fringe Ranger
It occurs to me that it would be terrible optics for us to actually SEE water going under the dam. I wonder if the spillways they are using to release water has anything to do with disguising the fact that the dam is leaking badly underneath at that point.
 
Trivium Pursuit

Trivium Pursuit

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Speculation about hiding the bad information from the upper managers may be in play here. On the other hand, wouldn't surprise me if the CCP now tells their middle management, "you darn well better tell me what those divers are seeing, or I will have YOU flayed alive.."
 
Countrymouse

Countrymouse

Country exile in the city
Kayak said:
There are two powerhouses, one on each end of the spillways in the middle. I'm not sure where the water is ejected after it spins the turbines, but it's possible it comes out that jet.

There is an actual lock in the far upper part of the pic, and then a "ship elevator" just above the dam in the pic (before the earthen part on the right. Both have been used to eject water a few times, which is scary because neither was designed for that.
Click to expand...

There is an actual lock in the far upper part of the pic, and then a "ship elevator" just above the dam in the pic (before the earthen part on the right. Both have been used to eject water a few times, which is scary because neither was designed for that.

Amen to that! :eek:
 
Countrymouse

Countrymouse

Country exile in the city
Melodi said:
Just a note, I have ZERO engineering experience (I can't even fold a letter properly) but I live with an engineer who builds the pumps that help fill anything from tiny water systems to potentially the great dams; but mostly they work on municipal water systems.

And, I learned a lot from people here both during the Oroville Dam Crises which came within a hair's breadth of being one of the worst man-caused disasters in the history of the United States, the fact that brave men and women worked 24/7 to make sure it didn't happen does not mean it was a "nothing burger," it was more "on a wing and a prayer."

But Oroville (as I understood it) had only ONE spillway that was an issue, without a working spillway the dam could not discharge enough water and came close to collapse.

Repair, divert, create a new emergency spillway and the crises were diverted or at least delayed until real repairs could be made.

Three Gorges Dam's problems are on the magnitude of a the size of orange vs. a grape; the very foundations of the dam are or have been hallowed out, all the spillways are in trouble and the cement now has holes in it that can't be repaired.

When my engineer housemate read that the CCP admitted the "cavitization" (aka holes in the cement) while reading over my shoulder she stopped speculating, turned white and wouldn't say anymore.

Her face kind of said it all and that was a least two weeks ago.

Your summary of the current situations is highly accurate as far as I can tell but as I said, I have zero personal understanding of these matters except that I listen to people who DO have it and then do my best to report back what they say.

Any and all mistakes are usually mine trying to translate engineer speak into my understanding of English.
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When my engineer housemate read that the CCP admitted the "cavitization" (aka holes in the cement) while reading over my shoulder she stopped speculating, turned white and wouldn't say anymore.

Her face kind of said it all and that was a least two weeks ago.

Your summary of the current situations is highly accurate as far as I can tell but as I said, I have zero personal understanding of these matters except that I listen to people who DO have it and then do my best to report back what they say.


Thanks for this information, Melodi!
 
Countrymouse

Countrymouse

Country exile in the city
bw said:
We have said from the start that there are two powerhouses, one on each side of the floodgates. The ship lift and the locks are on the far side in the streaming view we have been watching. We have seen whitewater coming from the ship lift and the lock area, which says they've been releasing water through there as well. The aerial shot from India shows the whitewater.
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I missed that---could you direct me to where I can see "the aerial shot from India" you mention?
 
Countrymouse

Countrymouse

Country exile in the city
bw said:
Cavitation and scour are two different things. Cavitation is the erosion of a hard surface under the forces generated by high speed water. It happens in concrete and steel conduits such as in the dam, and to surfaces like ship propellers or turbine blades. Scour is the erosion of softer material from turbulence around structures. It can undercut the foundations of bridges. See Schoharie Creek Bridge collapse - Wikipedia If they're worried about water under the dam, or undercutting from the discharge area, they're talking about scour.
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In this case I believe "cavitation" would be the right word, based on your definition---"hard surface".

Remember this dam was not built on the soil, but rests on (not "in"--explanation in a minute) the solid bedrock of the bottom of the river there at that junction of the mountains.

However---it only (from what I've read here on this thread) rests "on" the bedrock---it was never excavated down "into" the bedrock so that the foundation of the dam rests "in" it, as in "below the level of the bedrock". They constructed a "gravity" dam--meaning the design is expecting to have the weight of the dam itself, plus the water behind it, put a down-ward pressure on the dam, holding it in place despite the fact that it's not "anchored" to anything.

That design, per many sources, is not working.
 
bw

bw

Fringe Ranger
Countrymouse said:
However---it only (from what I've read here on this thread) rests "on" the bedrock---it was never excavated down "into" the bedrock so that the foundation of the dam rests "in" it, as in "below the level of the bedrock". They constructed a "gravity" dam--meaning the design is expecting to have the weight of the dam itself, plus the water behind it, put a down-ward pressure on the dam, holding it in place despite the fact that it's not "anchored" to anything.
Click to expand...

I saw a diagram of the structure that showed some kind of tendons going down into the bedrock, anchor bolts if you will. So it was more than pure gravity, but not a whole lot more. I wouldn't bet large amounts on the accuracy of that drawing, it was just a schematic.
 
Countrymouse

Countrymouse

Country exile in the city
20Gauge said:
I have only 5 seconds, can you catch me up?

Just asking?
Click to expand...


Ok.

Page 1.
It's raining more in China than it has in 100 years (some reports say "1000" years).

Pages 1-40.
China built a sh***y dam, which is already showing signs of failure (pics of "shifting", if you believe them, plus CCP admitting now that it is cavitating), and can't even handle the flood-waters it's got, much less the abundance of more water heading downstream.

Pages 1-40.
In an effort to keep the dam from failing, the CCP has been letting out all the water they can, flooding farmland (famine on tap) and cities downstream. This has caused further damage to the dam.

Pages 30-40.
Videos began showing murky, then muddy, water--evidence of cavitation. Some saw what appeared to be large blocks of material (could be rocks, could be parts of the dam) being vomited out of the dam in videos (though some said these were video glitches). Interestingly, just as the occurrence of these ejected objects became an almost-daily/hourly/ minute-by-minute occurrence, the Chinese closed down ALL the video feeds. When they re-opened them a couple of days later, the view had been "zoomed" WAY OUT so you can't see the water up close any more, they formerly had ALL flood-gates WIDE OPEN but now seemed to have scaled-back the water flow PLUS are "rotating" which floodgates are open & which are closed, and (finally) they've back-dated the videos now---before, they were LIVE--now (depending on which source you use) they are on a 1-minute to 2-minute delay.

Page 46.

It's toast.
We are on the death-watch.
 
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Countrymouse

Countrymouse

Country exile in the city
bw said:
I saw a diagram of the structure that showed some kind of tendons going down into the bedrock, anchor bolts if you will. So it was more than pure gravity, but not a whole lot more. I wouldn't bet large amounts on the accuracy of that drawing, it was just a schematic.
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I don't know on which posts in the past 46 pages I read it, but I know I read (repeatedly) that there is nothing holding this dam down but gravity. It was designed that way, they said. Maybe the members who posted that will see this and chime in with where they got their information.
 
Blacknarwhal

Blacknarwhal

Let's Go Brandon!
Countrymouse said:
Ok.

Page 1.
It's raining more in China than it has in 100 years (some reports say "1000" years).

Pages 1-40.
China built a sh***y dam, which is already showing signs of failure (pics of "shifting", if you believe them, plus CCP admitting now that it is cavitating), and can't even handle the flood-waters it's got, much less the abundance of more water heading downstream.

Pages 1-40.
In an effort to keep the dam from failing, the CCP has been letting out all the water they can, flooding farmland (famine on tap) and cities downstream. This has caused further damage to the dam.

Pages 30-40.
Videos began showing murky, then muddy, water--evidence of cavitation. Some saw what appeared to be large blocks of material (could be rocks, could be parts of the dam) being vomited out of the dam in videos (thought some said these were video glitches). Interestingly, just as the occurrence of these ejected objects became an almost-daily/hourly/ minute-by-minute occurrence, the Chinese closed down ALL the video feeds. When they re-opened them a couple of days later, the view had been "zoomed" WAY OUT so you can't see the water up close any more, they formerly had ALL flood-gates WIDE OPEN but now seemed to have scaled-back the water flow PLUS are "rotating" which floodgates are open & which are closed, and (finally) they've back-dated the videos now---before, they were LIVE--now (depending on which source you use) they are on a 1-minute to 2-minute delay.

Page 46.

It's toast.
We are on the death-watch.
Click to expand...

Excellent summation, yer mouseship.
 
Shadow

Shadow

Swift, Silent,...Sleepy
They need to close all the flood gates. Then deep release the dye that is used to test septic systems, I do not recall it's name. If it appeared anyplace other than the power turbine outlets that would show water passing under the dam.

Shadow
 
bw

bw

Fringe Ranger
Here's a screen grab of the image from the Indian intelligence guy. Dunno what page it was. You can see whitewater downstream of the ship lift and the locks. Shouldn't be any flow there unless they were letting water out.

ThreeGorges_AllOpen.jpg
 
P

Profit of Doom

Dismember
bw said:
It occurs to me that it would be terrible optics for us to actually SEE water going under the dam. I wonder if the spillways they are using to release water has anything to do with disguising the fact that the dam is leaking badly underneath at that point.
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You would not be able to see any water leaking under the dam. When it gets bad enough that you can, they will be in extreme deep shit.
 
Countrymouse

Countrymouse

Country exile in the city
bw said:
Here's the image showing tendons, found on page 35:

index.php
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Is the black part that the 45-degree angle "rod" is in part of the dam?

If so (if it's in the DAM, not the bedrock) then below that the dam is just sitting "on" the bedrock, and the level above is meant to act as a "brake" under the weight of gravity to keep it from "slipping" forward.

I'm no engineer nor constructor of dams, but I know several members have mentioned that the dam is relying on its own weight to hold it in place and that it is not "dug in to" the bedrock but should have been.
 
bw

bw

Fringe Ranger
Countrymouse said:
Is the black part that the 45-degree angle "rod" is in part of the dam?
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The black denotes solid concrete, and the bedrock is pink. The various white channels are vertical control conduits and the horizontal and some curved water tunnels. The tendons I was speaking of are the little thread-like lines going down into the rock. This shows the dam sitting ON the bedrock, not embedded INTO it, and the tendons tie it down. As I said in an earlier post, it's not much of a tie. Also (as I said earlier) this is a schematic, so don't depend on it being to scale or complete.
 
B

Beach

Veteran Member
Those look like rock anchors and if the scale is anyway near accurate look to be 15-20 meters long. If they're sized and spaced well, they could be pretty good ties to assist with slipping.

Edited to add:
I found a technical paper on the dam anchorages. I hope this link works: Key issues in rock mechanics of the Three Gorges Project in China

I've only breezed through it, but It looks like there are rock anchors and they are deep and spaced well.
 
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S

Squid

Veteran Member
I do not know why we keep asking engineers and hydro specialists.

As far as everyone tells me I am a dam expert. That I think I know a lot of dam information. Many ask what the dam can I do anyway. My current boss has frequently asked around the office if I think I know so dam much then why the hell don’t I do a dam thing.

There, I think I have covered my bona fides,,,

wait, it seems Dennis feels I have an issue with spelling, I will get back after I investigate further...
 
O

OldArcher

Has No Life - Lives on TB
The water on the downside of the river looks faster, with spume from dam less... The water looks high, without there being such violent discharge, as before. Could the majority of the water be coming from beneath the dam? Water seems to be moving rather quickly, maybe more so, than yesterday...

Blessed Be,

OA, GNIW
 
bw

bw

Fringe Ranger
OldArcher said:
The water on the downside of the river looks faster, with spume from dam less... The water looks high, without there being such violent discharge, as before. Could the majority of the water be coming from beneath the dam? Water seems to be moving rather quickly, maybe more so, than yesterday...
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Not a reflection on you personally, but we spend so much time running doom scenarios that we run the risk of talking ourselves into seeing what isn't there. The same thing happened in Oroville, when we had quite heated discussions about new breaches in the spillway which it turned out weren't actually occurring.
 
O

OldArcher

Has No Life - Lives on TB
bw said:
Not a reflection on you personally, but we spend so much time running doom scenarios that we run the risk of talking ourselves into seeing what isn't there. The same thing happened in Oroville, when we had quite heated discussions about new breaches in the spillway which it turned out weren't actually occurring.
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No doom scenario here. Just observation from what I've been watching on 3GD000.com... IF the dam were allowing more water beneath it, then would they have fewer gates be opened? Also, the spray of water is much, much lower, than yesterday... You look, compare, and please tell me I'm wrong... I don't want anyone to die, especially the helpless, the hopeless, or the innocent...

Bright Blessings,

OA, GNIW
 
C

cowboy

Veteran Member
Sense they jacked with the camera it has looked to me like there is say 100 ton of dirt camouflaging my point of reference in the corner but it does appear to be rocking back and forth.
 
DannyBoy

DannyBoy

Veteran Member
Beach said:
Here's an image from the paper as a little preview.View attachment 212916
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Pretty cool find Beach... I am an engineer, not a civil or construction, but I do get some of what is being discussed in general... I wish the figures were labeled in a way that made more sense. Maybe it loses something in the translation... But for instance, in the one you posted, I am still not sure which way is upstream! (I think it is to the left?) I think those diagonal lines on the right above 40 meters represent the prestressed cables... I think that grouting curtain runs along the upstream side of the dam (in the rock?) and we are looking at the cross section of that?

Interesting how the whole thing reads also... sounds like it was written to explain why even though there were issues in construction, "it is all gonna be OK." For instance, from section 4.1, I found this. Check out the second paragraph... a whole bunch of the paper is written like that...

"The main underground powerhouse is located at the right bank of the Three Gorges. The surrounding rock masses of the powerhouses are primarily fresh plagiogranite and diorite rocks of the Presinian system. Fractures were developed in the rock masses, and the major faults include F20 and F22 with a NNW orientation, and F84 (a fault zone) and F10 with a NE-NEE orientation. The surrounding rock masses of the powerhouses are slightly permeable strata due to faults and strong weathering. Groundwater mainly comes from the upstream reservoir, right hill, atmospheric precipitation, and construction-induced water.

To ensure that the excavation quality of the main powerhouse could meet the design requirements, a series of indoor and field experiments were carried out. Significant results were achieved: (1) The excavation precision of the main powerhouse was ensured by adopting a series of advanced construction technologies. A significant improvement on excavation precision was observed. The average over-excavation at the top arch was controlled at 8.5 cm. More than half of over-excavation was controlled within 20 cm. (2) To further improve the effect of tensile anchorage rods, experiments on grout injection equipment and techniques for anchorage rods, as well as water-cement ratio, were conducted and optimized. As a result, the compactness of cement around the anchorage rods is more than 90%. (3) Some significant breakthroughs were made in environmental protection and occupational health by introducing new concepts and measures. (4) Adding access road, smooth blasting and presplitting blasting was adopted to ensure normal construction of the main powerhouse. These efforts ensured the top arch deformation to be controlled within 2 mm. Thus, the stability of the surrounding rock masses of the large chambers during construction is ensured [10], [11]."

Yeah... I was thinking, maybe I should download that whole paper (looks like you can) because if the dam fails, it will likely go away... <<<< ETA: prolly not, that is in a tech journal... prolly safe...
 
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O

OldArcher

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Please correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't seem like the water out of the gates is lower in height, and it almost seems as if the force of the water is from under the water? Strange...

Blessed Be

OA, GNIW
 
DannyBoy

DannyBoy

Veteran Member
OldArcher said:
Please correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't seem like the water out of the gates is lower in height, and it almost seems as if the force of the water is from under the water? Strange...

Blessed Be

OA, GNIW
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It seems to me like some of the water chutes are higher than others... maybe every other one? I remember the other day you could see the back of the dam under the water wash out the chute.

I also saw that bubble of water coming down that "sleuth"... I am wondering if the water we see shooting out nearest is from that pathway?

One other thought... the chutes might all be the same, and the pressure might depend totally on the head of the river stage upstream, and when the spray is high, might be that the level upstream is high... except that nearest one is different somehow.

3gd13.34-8.7.JPG
 
DannyBoy

DannyBoy

Veteran Member
Yeah, water is indeed coming down that near chute... marked in this snap... Oh, and note that handrail over on the left down low... was not showing the last few days... rocks are showing better also...

3gd13.51-8.7.JPG
 
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