CORONA Main Coronavirus thread

jward

jward

passin' thru



Andy Biotech
@AndyBiotech
1h

#COVID19 Two bits of good news likely bring some comfort to parents 1)Children appear less susceptible to infection
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1227626945917181954
View: https://twitter.com/HornbergerLab/status/1227626945917181954
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1228114879057408002
View: https://twitter.com/AndyBiotech/status/1228114879057408002


2)Small study in
@TheLancet
found no evidence for vertical transmission in late pregnancy https://thelancet.com/journals/lance
1581648529679.png
 
Ragnarok

Ragnarok

On and On, South of Heaven
Green Co. said:
... we estimated that the number of infected individuals during early epidemic double every 2.4 days, and the R0 value is likely to be between 4.7 and 6.6.
Click to expand...

For those who may not understand ( I had to look this up ) the R0 factor ( pronounced "R Naught" ) is how contagious a disease is.

Just to make it easier to explain, I'll round up to an R0 of 5 to 7 ( which, by the way is TWICE as contagious as the 1918 Spanish Flu )

What that means is every infected person will infect between 5-7 other people.

Then those infected will infect another 5-7 and so on. That is why it is spreading like a brushfire... And, being airborne, it is a nightmare. I don't see any way this is getting stopped...

1581649060862.png
 
Last edited:
Trivium Pursuit

Trivium Pursuit

Has No Life - Lives on TB
This was the one, Ragnarok, thank you. Read it through. 61% of patients had the proteinurea (sp?) that indicates renal impairment. It was not stated directly in the paper, but I inferred from it that these were Chinese patients that were being studied. Another question for Rondaben. A commenter mentioned that they suspect that this was a second inflammation following lung inflammation in ncov patients. Would a systemic Anti-inflammatory be of value in dealing with this? Are there any that are specific to assist kidneys?
 
Jubilee on Earth

Jubilee on Earth

Veteran Member
jward said:
#COVID19 Two bits of good news likely bring some comfort to parents 1)Children appear less susceptible to infection
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1227626945917181954
View: https://twitter.com/HornbergerLab/status/1227626945917181954
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1228114879057408002
View: https://twitter.com/AndyBiotech/status/1228114879057408002


2)Small study in
@TheLancet
found no evidence for vertical transmission in late pregnancy https://thelancet.com/journals/lance
View attachment 182689
Click to expand...

I guess my first question is, what is the population like of children in China? Forgive my naïveté, but I thought that they had strict restrictions on kids. I'm assuming they don’t have families of 4 or 5 kids over there that can spread germs easily at playgrounds or daycare, and at home amongst each other (not to mention school). Can these statistics really be translated to America's population?
 
susie0884

susie0884

Dooming since 1998
Matt said:
My local Sam's club is starting to have gaping holes in their stock. White rice is GONE! No 50 or 25 pound bags. Pinto beans are almost gone, maybe 20 of the 12 pound bags left. The second shelves that are reserved for restock have partial pallets instead of the normal full sized reloads. They are using pallets of water to fill in the holes as well, in the past all water was kept in the back of the store. The local Albertsons was almost out of flour today....it was fully stocked 2 days ago.....four corners area.
Click to expand...

Speaking of which: When do the EBT cards refill, so I can avoid that crowd?
 
Tarryn

Tarryn

Senior Member
China admits it has no idea how many people have coronavirus in Wuhan


China admits it has no idea how many people in Wuhan have been exposed to coronavirus as officials hunt for patients door to door
  • Beijing's special team said they were yet to confirm the scale of the epidemic
  • But it warned the number of potential carriers in Wuhan could be 'quite large'
  • An expert warned the number of cases could be up to 25 times the official total
  • China's President Xi has called for a battle to defend Wuhan against the virus
  • Official have launched door-to-door checks to hunt down suspected sufferers
China has admitted that it still doesn't know how many people have contracted the novel coronavirus in Wuhan after officials launched door-to-door health checks to hunt for patients.

A top Communist official appointed by Beijing to handle the crisis said his team could not confirm the exact scale of the epidemic in the city, but warned the number of potential carriers could be 'quite large'.
The news comes as a British virologist warned the number of cases in China could be 10 to 25 times higher than the official statistics.

24705376-8001011-image-a-1_1581614462318.jpg
A top Communist official appointed by Beijing to handle the crisis said his team could not confirm the exact scale of the epidemic in Wuhan, but warned the number of potential carriers could be 'quite large'. In the picture, two people wearing face masks walk in Wuhan on Monday
24705396-8001011-image-a-2_1581614464854.jpg

The news comes as a British virologist warned the number of cases in China could be 10 to 25 times higher than the official statistics. The daily number of confirmed patients in Wuhan jumped more than 12 times yesterday while the daily death toll increased three times
The senior official called for 'a general offensive' towards the deadly disease, according to a transcript of the conference released by the nation's Central Political and Legal Affairs Commission.

He demanded the city build more 'fang cang' or 'shelter' hospitals by converting public facilities including sports halls, exhibition centres and universities.

He also urged the city to award its 'warrior' and 'fighter' officials who have 'charged on the front line and shattered enemies' during the anti-coronavirus war.

Virologist Derek Gatherer from the University of Lancaster warned that the number of coronavirus patients in China could be 10 to 25 times higher than the official figures.

Prof Gatherer told Sky News yesterday: 'The reason we can make this estimation is because we know the number of exported cases from China and we also know the number of people who have travelled out of China.'
Wuhan authorities announced on Monday that they had discovered 1,499 critically ill residents who were infected with the new coronavirus through door-to-door health checks.

China's Vice Premier last week ordered the city to move all confirmed and potential sufferers - as well as their close contacts - into quarantine camps in a bid to stop the spread of the disease.

However, official statistics from yesterday reveal that two emergency coronavirus hospitals which were built from scratch in 12 days were only treating half of the patients they were supposed to.
The Huoshenshan and Leishenshen hospitals were designed to have about 2,600 beds in total, but as of yesterday there were only a combined 1,136 sufferers receiving medical attention there.
China's Communist Party today replaced the party heads in the coronavirus-stricken province of Hubei and its capital Wuhan as critics blast the local government's handling of the health crisis.

The removal of Jiang Chaoliang, the leading Communist Party official of Hubei province, and Ma Guoqiang, his counterpart in Wuhan, follows the dismissal of two provincial health officials on Tuesday, and is part of a wider effort by Beijing to remove bureaucrats it accuses of shirking their duties.
 
jward

jward

passin' thru
1581649639586.png

Clinical diagnosis of 8274 samples with 2019-novel coronavirus in Wuhan
Ming Wang, Qing Wu, Wanzhou Xu, Bin Qiao, Jingwei Wang, Hongyun Zheng, Shupeng Jiang, Junchi Mei, Zegang Wu, Yayun Deng, Fangyuan Zhou, Wei Wu, Yan Zhang, Zhihua Lv, Jingtao Huang, Xiaoqian Guo, Lina Feng, Zunen Xia, Di Li, Zhiliang Xu, Tiangang Liu, Pingan Zhang, Yongqing Tong, Yan Li

doi: Clinical diagnosis of 8274 samples with 2019-novel coronavirus in Wuhan
This article is a preprint and has not been peer-reviewed [what does this mean?]. It reports new medical research that has yet to be evaluated and so should not be used to guide clinical practice.




Abstract
Background 2019-Novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) outbreaks create challenges for hospital laboratories because thousands of samples must be evaluated each day. Sample types, interpretation methods, and corresponding laboratory standards must be established. The possibility of other infections should be assessed to provide a basis for clinical classification, isolation, and treatment. Accordingly, in the present study, we evaluated the testing methods for 2019-nCoV and co-infections. Methods We used a fluorescence-based quantitative PCR kit urgently distributed by the Chinese CDC to detect 8274 close contacts in the Wuhan region against two loci on the 2019-nCoV genome.

We also analyzed 613 patients with fever who underwent multiple tests for 13 respiratory pathogens; 316 subjects were also tested for 2019-nCoV. Findings Among the 8274 subjects, 2745 (33.2%) had 2019-nCoV infection; 5277 (63.8%) subjects showed negative results in the 2019-nCoV nucleic acid test (non-019-nCoV); and 252 cases (3.0%) because only one target was positive, the diagnosis was not definitive. Sixteen patients who originally had only one positive target were re-examined a few days later; 14 patients (87.5%) were finally defined as 2019-nCoV-positive, and 2 (12.5%) were finally defined as negative. The positive rates of nCoV-NP and nCovORF1ab were 34.7% and 34.7%, respectively.

nCoV-NP-positive only and nCovORF1ab-positive cases accounted for 1.5% and 1.5%, respectively. In the 316 patients with multiple respiratory pathogens, 104 were positive for 2019-nCov and 6/104 had co-infection with coronavirus (3/104), influenza A virus (2/104), rhinovirus (2/104), and influenza A H3N2 (1/104); the remaining 212 patients had influenza A virus (11/202), influenza A H3N2 (11/202), rhinovirus (10/202), respiratory syncytial virus (7/202), influenza B virus (6/202), metapneumovirus (4/202), and coronavirus (2/202). Interpretation: Clinical testing methods for 2019-nCoV require improvement. Importantly, 5.8% of 2019-nCoV infected and 18.4% of non-2019-nCoV-infected patients had other pathogen infections. It is important to treat combined infections and perform rapid screening to avoid cross-contamination of patients. A test that quickly and simultaneously screens as many pathogens as possible is needed.

Competing Interest Statement
The authors have declared no competing interest.
Funding Statement
No founding
Author Declarations
All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript.
Yes
All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived.
Yes
I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).
Yes
I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.
Yes
www.medrxiv.org

Clinical diagnosis of 8274 samples with 2019-novel coronavirus in Wuhan

Background 2019-Novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) outbreaks create challenges for hospital laboratories because thousands of samples must be evaluated each day. Sample types, interpretation methods, and corresponding laboratory standards must be established. The possibility of other infections...
www.medrxiv.org www.medrxiv.org
 
Trivium Pursuit

Trivium Pursuit

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Shooter said:
I wentto walmart today, Doc gave me 3 month of meds, had to get that filled. I asked about masks and got a dirty look, said they been out a week, and have no idea IF they will be getting any more in, not WHEN, food isles looked pretty good. didnt buy any food, get SS on the 19th, big shopping day then,

I have 3 tables at the Fremont Ne, gun show this weekend, well see how that area is faring, also talk with people and see what they are thinking,

I need to get a list of OTC meds to stock, dont really have much of that .
Click to expand...
Please post a report this weekend of what the somewhat cluefull preppers that you meet at the show think about all of this.
 
Dennis Olson

Dennis Olson

Chief Curmudgeon
_______________
From a member PM:


The Federal DMAT (Disaster Medical Assistance Team) is being deployed to Miramar Air Station in San Diego to facilitate the treatment and care of COVID-19 patients. These portable hospitals will treat on scene instead of transferring the patients to area hospitals. Make of that what you will, but it appears that there may be more cases requiring a higher level of care than just routine 'monitoring'.
 
TxGal

TxGal

Day by day
Trivium Pursuit said:
Please post a report this weekend of what the somewhat cluefull preppers that you meet at the show think about all of this.
Click to expand...

That should be interesting. I was in an Academy Sports this afternoon looking for a camping lantern, and checked the Mountain House pks - they had plenty, no shortage there.

I did check the ammo aisle. I was really surprised to see they were low on stock of just about everything, and lots of holes. Didn't expect that.
 
Trivium Pursuit

Trivium Pursuit

Has No Life - Lives on TB
EMICT said:
Take the time in the next few weeks to enjoy the small things that we have enjoyed most of our lives.

I kind of envy you all here. I know what my life is going to be like here in the near future and what it means for my family. I work in an ER setting as does my wife. My son and daughter-in-law are ER nurses. My daughter in Colorado is a home health nurse. Another daughter is in Med school and is being prepped to assist in clinics in KCMO. The only person in my immediate family who will not have daily contact with this bug is my 18 month old granddaughter.

So, again, enjoy the normalcy you have right NOW. Don't spend all of your time here in this thread when you could be enjoying what normalcy there still is out in the 'meat' world.

ETA: This isn't a pitty party on my part, just a suggestion for you all to be careful and don't spend all your time here fretting about what's coming down the pike. It will get bad soon enough and with GOD's grace, most here will make it to the other side with minimal impact to your lives.
Click to expand...
Thank you for your clear eyed resolve and service in this and that of your family. We all should gird our loins and deal as best we can. I'm not on a hospital floor again until mid April, by which time the picture should be somewhat clearer here.
 
N

northern watch

TB Fanatic
BNO Newsroom‏Verified account @BNODesk 20m20 minutes ago

China's National Health Commission has released the daily update but the figures are very confusing. We're trying to make sense of them. 267 new cases outside Hubei but the number of deaths is unclear.
 
N

night driver

ESFP adrift in INTJ sea
Dennis Olson said:
From a member PM:


The Federal DMAT (Disaster Medical Assistance Team) is being deployed to Miramar Air Station in San Diego to facilitate the treatment and care of COVID-19 patients. These portable hospitals will treat on scene instead of transferring the patients to area hospitals. Make of that what you will, but it appears that there may be more cases requiring a higher level of care than just routine 'monitoring'.
Click to expand...

SOMEONE is being REAL proactive!!

These Units take a LOT of bubbling under work on a weekly and monthly basis to be ready to MOVE OUT!!! at the drop of a hat.
FEW folks not involved understand what it takes. Even the medical staff in the TO&E for that unit won't FULLY understand unless they are working in a tertiary responsibility for logistics.

NOT a REAL surprise ( I suspect there are 10 others getting a hint to go through their prepacks to make sure nobody went in and rat****ed the gear for one or two things they HAD to have SOMEWHERE other than in the storage warehouse or hangar.

PRAYERS to everyone playing NDMS games right NOW.
 
Trivium Pursuit

Trivium Pursuit

Has No Life - Lives on TB
And finally, in tonight's official tables, Germany lists 16 cases, one recovered. An upgrade at last. My thought is that Germany will be our model of how this proceeds in a first world country, So I am wanting to hear as much as possible about how it goes with those folks.
 
S

Squid

Veteran Member
Tarryn said:
China admits it has no idea how many people have coronavirus in Wuhan


China admits it has no idea how many people in Wuhan have been exposed to coronavirus as officials hunt for patients door to door
  • Beijing's special team said they were yet to confirm the scale of the epidemic
  • But it warned the number of potential carriers in Wuhan could be 'quite large'
  • An expert warned the number of cases could be up to 25 times the official total
  • China's President Xi has called for a battle to defend Wuhan against the virus
  • Official have launched door-to-door checks to hunt down suspected sufferers
China has admitted that it still doesn't know how many people have contracted the novel coronavirus in Wuhan after officials launched door-to-door health checks to hunt for patients.

A top Communist official appointed by Beijing to handle the crisis said his team could not confirm the exact scale of the epidemic in the city, but warned the number of potential carriers could be 'quite large'.
The news comes as a British virologist warned the number of cases in China could be 10 to 25 times higher than the official statistics.

24705376-8001011-image-a-1_1581614462318.jpg
A top Communist official appointed by Beijing to handle the crisis said his team could not confirm the exact scale of the epidemic in Wuhan, but warned the number of potential carriers could be 'quite large'. In the picture, two people wearing face masks walk in Wuhan on Monday
24705396-8001011-image-a-2_1581614464854.jpg

The news comes as a British virologist warned the number of cases in China could be 10 to 25 times higher than the official statistics. The daily number of confirmed patients in Wuhan jumped more than 12 times yesterday while the daily death toll increased three times
The senior official called for 'a general offensive' towards the deadly disease, according to a transcript of the conference released by the nation's Central Political and Legal Affairs Commission.

He demanded the city build more 'fang cang' or 'shelter' hospitals by converting public facilities including sports halls, exhibition centres and universities.

He also urged the city to award its 'warrior' and 'fighter' officials who have 'charged on the front line and shattered enemies' during the anti-coronavirus war.

Virologist Derek Gatherer from the University of Lancaster warned that the number of coronavirus patients in China could be 10 to 25 times higher than the official figures.

Prof Gatherer told Sky News yesterday: 'The reason we can make this estimation is because we know the number of exported cases from China and we also know the number of people who have travelled out of China.'
Wuhan authorities announced on Monday that they had discovered 1,499 critically ill residents who were infected with the new coronavirus through door-to-door health checks.

China's Vice Premier last week ordered the city to move all confirmed and potential sufferers - as well as their close contacts - into quarantine camps in a bid to stop the spread of the disease.

However, official statistics from yesterday reveal that two emergency coronavirus hospitals which were built from scratch in 12 days were only treating half of the patients they were supposed to.
The Huoshenshan and Leishenshen hospitals were designed to have about 2,600 beds in total, but as of yesterday there were only a combined 1,136 sufferers receiving medical attention there.
China's Communist Party today replaced the party heads in the coronavirus-stricken province of Hubei and its capital Wuhan as critics blast the local government's handling of the health crisis.

The removal of Jiang Chaoliang, the leading Communist Party official of Hubei province, and Ma Guoqiang, his counterpart in Wuhan, follows the dismissal of two provincial health officials on Tuesday, and is part of a wider effort by Beijing to remove bureaucrats it accuses of shirking their duties.
Click to expand...
So basically Squid on TB2K called out they don’t really know a true number and the CCP feels the must respond with confirmation.

We don’t break the news we are the news
:siren:
 
Shadow

Shadow

Swift, Silent,...Sleepy
Dennis Olson said:
From a member PM:


The Federal DMAT (Disaster Medical Assistance Team) is being deployed to Miramar Air Station in San Diego to facilitate the treatment and care of COVID-19 patients. These portable hospitals will treat on scene instead of transferring the patients to area hospitals. Make of that what you will, but it appears that there may be more cases requiring a higher level of care than just routine 'monitoring'.
Click to expand...
It may be to avoid the contamination of the transfer vehicle, hospital and exposure to those involved in the transfer. I (guess) that a level 4 patient would disrupt normal hospital routine.

Or, they may just want to get a close look at the virus and quarantine situation. It seems like a good call, all considered.

Shadow
 
marsh

marsh

On TB every waking moment
Optimus Prime said:
It's a numbers game folks.
There are roughly 931,000 inpatient hospital beds in the US, of those roughly 95,000 are critical care ICU beds. In those ICU's are roughly 62,200 ventilators. To attend patients there are roughly 56,000 ER docs, 48,000 radiologists, 12,400 Pulmonologists and 9800 Infectious Disease docs. These are finite numbers, the US won't produce any more rapidly for this pandemic. As i posted about a million posts back, a good friend who is an ER doc here in North Texas states his opinion is a critical case load of between 500-1000 patients is the breaking point for the DFW area. YMMV, your city may vary.
I'm in agreement with RondaBen, ER's will "treat and street" as many as possible. Honestly, ERs don't want a NCOV case, the disruption would be overwhelming. IF patient presents with flu complaint WITH NO travel/exposure to China no testing for NCOV will be done. Furthermore, the only sure test is a bronchial wash which requires bronchoscopy/intubation. How many facilities have time for that? Right this minute in North Texas most facilities are full and few are accepting transfers from outlier facilities.
Click to expand...
I am getting the picture that us older folk with underlying disease will be kicked into home hospice to ration available resources for the younger people with a better chance of more rapid recovery. It will be a triage exercise - likely by checklist.
 
R

rondaben

Veteran Member
Trivium Pursuit said:
This was the one, Ragnarok, thank you. Read it through. 61% of patients had the proteinurea (sp?) that indicates renal impairment. It was not stated directly in the paper, but I inferred from it that these were Chinese patients that were being studied. Another question for Rondaben. A commenter mentioned that they suspect that this was a second inflammation following lung inflammation in ncov patients. Would a systemic Anti-inflammatory be of value in dealing with this? Are there any that are specific to assist kidneys?
Click to expand...

There isn't a lot of study on this with Covid-19 but they did have some studies for SARS. I would imagine the pathology would be the same.

What was found was that it was what I would call "shock kidneys". With this virus you get a progressive shortness of breath over the first week to 10 days of symptoms (average, some earlier--some later). As PO2 (the blood gas value--for home use lets talk about it as the pulse-ox reading) drops, less oxygen is able to cross the damaged alveoli into the blood. This causes hypoxia. The lack of oxygen begins to damage all of the organs. It is made worse by the body's attempts to shunt blood flow to the heart and brain as they are the most sensitive to hypoxia. The liver, kidneys, bowels, etc. become ischemic. Without oxygen the body reverts to the production of lactic acid for its energy need instead of aerobic respiration. Blood pH drops, the patient becomes acidotic and without correction will die.

Often times at this point steroids may be a last-ditch effort to help. We would be pushing IV fluids, pressors like epinephrine or dopamine to keep blood pressure up to protect the organs. The patient would be definitely intubated or, if needed and available, placed on ECMO.

Now, lets focus on the kidney problem. When it doesn't get enough oxygen the cells in the renal tubules begin to die. These cells are what line the nephron and help to control the excretion of waste and reabsorbtion of things you don't want to lose. They will die and sluough off into the urine. This is called Acute Tubular Necrosis. A good marker for this is urine output. If it falls below about 400ml in a 24hr period the patient will need dialysis. Because the cells are dead/dying/sloughing off protein--something your body wants to readsorb--spills out into the urine. This is a tell tell sign of damage to the kidney. It can take several weeks for the kidneys to begin to heal and there will likely be some degree of permanent impairment from the injury. In SARS the involvment was a HUGE marker in the severity of the disease. Of those that got an acute kidney injury 92% died vs. 8% who died without kidney injury. Thus it is important to keep the organs well perfused to improve survival. IV fluids for blood pressure, supplemental oxygen for hypoxemia are critical supportive measures.
 
N

northern watch

TB Fanatic
BNO Newsroom‏Verified account @BNODesk 1m1 minute ago

Coronavirus update: - 64,438 cases worldwide - 10,109 suspected cases - 1,383 fatalities - 10,227 in serious/critical condition - 6,801 recovered - Most cases in China - 25 countries reporting cases
 
R

rondaben

Veteran Member
marsh said:
I am getting the picture that us older folk with underlying disease will be kicked into home hospice to ration available resources for the younger people with a better chance of more rapid recovery. It will be a triage exercise - likely by checklist.
Click to expand...
I'm not exactly sure that will be true. To be honest, the primary care right now is supportive. Fluids. O2. prophylactic antibiotics. Until they have a medication that is proven to work I don't see a lot of reason to restrict treating the worst conditio patients first. I would imagine that home treatment will be exclusive to those who are younger, healthier, and likely to have mild disease cases. Hospitals will be filled with the older and those with comorbidities. The stink will be the lack of ventilators/ECMO and that is gonna suck for everyone.
 
jward

jward

passin' thru
night driver said:
SOMEONE is being REAL proactive!!

These Units take a LOT of bubbling under work on a weekly and monthly basis to be ready to MOVE OUT!!! at the drop of a hat.
FEW folks not involved understand what it takes. Even the medical staff in the TO&E for that unit won't FULLY understand unless they are working in a tertiary responsibility for logistics.

NOT a REAL surprise ( I suspect there are 10 others getting a hint to go through their prepacks to make sure nobody went in and rat****ed the gear for one or two things they HAD to have SOMEWHERE other than in the storage warehouse or hangar.

PRAYERS to everyone playing NDMS games right NOW.
Click to expand...

As usual I think you're right as rain, amen, and AMEN!
 
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