What happened to Kerry's bounce?

[Gingergirl]

Poll: No boost for Kerry after convention
By Susan Page, USA TODAY
WASHINGTON — The Democratic National Convention boosted voters' perceptions of John Kerry's leadership on critical issues, a USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll finds. But it failed to give him the expected bump in the head-to-head race against President Bush.

In the survey, taken Friday and Saturday, the Democratic ticket of Kerry and John Edwards trailed the Republican ticket of Bush and Dick Cheney 50% to 46% among likely voters, with independent candidate Ralph Nader at 2%.

Before the convention, the two were essentially tied, with Kerry at 47%, Bush at 46%.

The change in support was within the poll's margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points in the sample of 763 likely voters. But it was nonetheless a stunning result, the first time in the Gallup Poll since the 1972 Democratic convention that a candidate seemed to lose ground at his convention.

USA TODAY extended its survey Sunday night and tonight to get a fuller picture of what's happening with the electorate.

A Newsweek survey taken Thursday and Friday showed the Democrats with a lead of 49% to 42%, a four-point bounce compared with a poll taken three weeks earlier — the smallest in the history of the Newsweek poll.

Analysts say the lack of a boost for Kerry may reflect the intensely polarized contest. Nearly nine of 10 voters say in the survey that they are confident they won't change their mind between now and the Nov. 2 election. That leaves little room for a candidate to gain support even when major events occur.


http://usatoday.printthis.clickabil...nt/2004-08-01-poll-kerry_x.htm&partnerID=1660

 

[RoseTower]

This is an interesting site to get different perspectives on different polls. I guess it all depends on who is doing the polling?

http://pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm

Newsweek Poll conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International. July 29-30, 2004. N=1,010 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 4 (for all registered voters

Bush - 42 Kerry - 49

Zogby America Poll. July 26-29, 2004. N=1,001 likely voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.2 (total sample).

Bush - 43 Kerry - 48

ABC News/Washington Post Poll. July 22-25, 2004. N=909 registered voters nationwide. Fieldwork by TNS. MoE ± 3. 7/8-11/04: Washington Post Poll.

Bush - 48 Kerry - 46

Investor's Business Daily/Christian Science Monitor/TIPP poll conducted by TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence. July 19-24, 2004. N=883 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.5.

Bush - 43 Kerry - 46

Time Poll conducted by SRBI Public Affairs. July 20-22, 2004. N=1,000 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.

Bush - 45 Kerry - 50

 

[Ought Six]

No 'bounce' for Kerry so far

Poll: No 'bounce' for Kerry so far


Bush and Democratic nominee still running neck and neck

CNN.com
Sunday, August 1, 2004

(CNN) -- The race between President Bush and Sen. John Kerry is as close as it has ever been, even after the Democratic National Convention last week, according to a CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll released Sunday.

The poll -- conducted Friday and Saturday, after Kerry's acceptance of the Democratic nomination Thursday night -- found the senator from Massachusetts running slightly ahead of Bush among registered voters but slightly behind among likely voters.

In each case, the difference between the two men was less than the margin of error, making the results a statistical tie.

Although the poll brought some good news for Kerry, it suggested that the convention helped mobilize voters on the opposite side as well.

Of the 1,011 adult Americans interviewed, 916 identified themselves as registered voters and 763 said they were likely voters.

The registered voters surveyed favored Kerry over Bush 50-47, a slight change from 49-45 found in a similar poll conducted two weeks ago.

The likely voters polled favored Bush 50-47, whereas two weeks earlier they had favored Kerry 49-47.

The margin of error in each case was plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

Further polls in the coming days will help determine what effect the convention may have had on the race.

The figures from this poll supported Democrats' statements leading up to the convention that Kerry would likely not see a "bounce," the term for a temporary increase in a candidate's support after a significant event. Democrats said the Kerry campaign was already riding a bounce going into the convention.

Kerry's campaign argued that challengers historically run behind incumbents by about 15 points heading into a convention. Instead, Kerry entered the convention already polling neck and neck with Bush.

Also, Kerry chose his running mate, Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina, earlier than any previous presidential hopeful, and received the bounce that usually accompanies that decision well in advance of the convention.

Bush campaign chairman Marc Racicot said the poll was "interesting to note, but it is just a snapshot."

"It's heartening, quite frankly, for this moment," he said on CNN's "Late Edition." "But by tomorrow, of course, we'll realize that anything can change from day to day and that we have to continue to work hard virtually every day."

The poll suggested the convention boosted Kerry's standing on several key measures -- but often not at Bush's expense.

Kerry's favorability rating edged up slightly, to 58 percent among registered voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. It was at 56 percent two weeks ago. But Bush's rating rose as well, to 52 percent from 51 percent, with the same margin of error.

Kerry appeared to gain slightly on the question of who is more honest and trustworthy, with 48 percent of all those interviewed choosing Kerry and 43 percent choosing Bush. Two weeks ago, they were tied at 42 percent each.

But 55 percent of all respondents said Bush does not flip-flop on issues, while only 33 percent said Kerry does not. And 51 percent said they consider Bush the stronger and more decisive leader. Only 42 percent said that of Kerry.

Kerry is far out in front of Bush on the question of who would unite the country. Fifty-two percent of all those interviewed said Kerry would, while only 39 percent said Bush would.

Fifty-one percent of all respondents said Kerry has an optimistic vision, while only 40 percent said Bush does. And 53 percent said Kerry cares about people like them, while only 38 percent said that about Bush.

Although some Republicans ridiculed Kerry for focusing so much on his military service during the convention, 42 percent of all respondents said that service makes it more likely they will vote for him. But 41 percent said it made no difference.

A majority of all those interviewed said they believe Kerry would handle the economy better. On that issue they favored Kerry over Bush 54-43.

On the Iraq issue, little significant change was apparent. Kerry edged out Bush on Iraq, 49-47, in the current poll. But two weeks ago Bush was ahead on the Iraq issue 49-44, and the results of both questions fell within the margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Kerry may have gained some ground on terrorism, but Bush remains the front-runner on that issue.

Two weeks ago, poll respondents said they preferred Bush to lead the war against terror 56-38. In the latest poll, they still favored the president 54-42.

The current poll suggested Democrat-leaning voters were more enthusiastic about the race, and therefore more likely to vote.

But enthusiasm among Democrats already was high, and the poll suggested the four-day Democratic convention energized Republicans as well.

Seventy-four percent of Democrats said they were more enthusiastic about voting than usual, up from 68 percent two weeks earlier.

Sixty-one percent of Republicans said they were now enthusiastic about the race, up from 51 percent.

And independent candidate Ralph Nader proves a continuing concern for Kerry.

When Nader was offered as an option, 3 percent of registered voters left Kerry's column to support the consumer advocate -- bringing Kerry down to a tie with Bush, 47-47. Two percent of likely voters chose Nader, increasing Bush's lead over Kerry to 50-46. Those results are all within the margin of error.

When all poll respondents were asked who they think will win the race, the result was a 47-47 tie between Bush and Kerry.

 

[RoseTower]

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tm...u=/ap/20040802/ap_on_el_pr/presidential_polls

Polls Mixed on Kerry's Convention Bounce

Mon Aug 2,11:08 AM ET

Add Politics - AP to My Yahoo!

By WILL LESTER, Associated Press Writer

WASHINGTON - John Kerry (news - web sites) either gained a slight bump in his standing with voters or didn't move at all following the Democratic National Convention, according to polls taken after he accepted the party's nomination for president.


A Newsweek poll taken Thursday and Friday gave Kerry and running mate John Edwards (news - web sites) a narrow lead, 49 percent to 42 percent for President Bush (news - web sites) and Vice President Dick Cheney (news - web sites) and 3 percent for independent Ralph Nader (news - web sites) and Peter Camejo (news - web sites). Kerry-Edwards and Bush-Cheney were essentially tied in a Newsweek poll in early July — 47 percent for Kerry-Edwards and 44 percent for Bush-Cheney with 3 percent for Nader-Camejo.

Two polls taken after Kerry's Thursday night speech showed little or no movement for the Democrat.

_A CNN-USA Today-Gallup poll released Sunday found Bush and Cheney slightly ahead among likely voters in a three-way matchup, 50 percent to 46 percent for Kerry-Edwards and 2 percent for Nader-Camejo. The two major tickets were tied among registered voters in a three-way race.

_A CBS News poll released Monday found the Democratic ticket slightly ahead of Bush-Cheney, 48 percent to 43 percent with Nader at 3 percent. The three-way race in early July was tied with Kerry-Edwards at 45 percent, Bush-Cheney at 43 percent and Nader-Camejo at 5 percent.

The Newsweek poll of 1,010 registered voters was taken Thursday and Friday and the CBS poll of 881 registered voters was taken Friday Saturday and Sunday. Both had margins of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. The CNN-USA Today-Gallup poll of 763 registered voters was taken Friday and Saturday and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

 

[Ought Six]

I was flipping through the news channels, and I heard Chris Matthews say, "It was like a concrete trampoline -- no bounce."

 

['plain o joe']

The Devil you know

is worse than the devil you don't know...

Nothing ventured, nothing gained...

For Real Americans, the most important thing is that piece of paper, the Constitution, which has been basically shreaded by the Patriot Act


How does one again trust, someone who has lied