Victor D. Hanson says that if the campaign lasts long enough, McCain will win.

Troke

On TB every waking moment
http://corner.nationalreview.com/

I think McCain will incrementally continue to close the lead for four reasons:

The hope and change rock-start moments are waning, and replaced by a new Obama composite:

1) Obama flips in furious fashion; the only controversy is over when the mutations will stop, and how well he can convince his base that they are only cosmetic adjustments of limited duration necessary for election and the implementation of their shared European-like agenda.

2) Obama is proving messianic; all the lectures about fainting, the Brandenburg Gate, his new seal, open-air address in Denver, oceans receding, etc. are cementing a portrait of a megalomaniac. Almost everyone has by now "disappointed", or "disrespected" Obama, or is not the fellow prophet that Obama "knew," "remembers", or "recalls". His sermons on our SUVs, lack of language fluency, diet etc. are as hypocritical as they are sophomoric, and confirm Michelle's summation of the rest of us as "unaware, uninformed."

3) Obama is ruthless — the numbers of those thrown under the bus — Wright, his grandmother, Ms. Power, former aides — are now resembling speed bumps. This is not unusual in politics, but contradicts the Sermon on the Mount imagery, and confirms the past narrative of his take-no-prisoners political ambitions.

4) Obama has a poor grasp of history, geography, American culture, and common sense — whether the number or location of states in the Union, basic facts about WWII or where Arabic is spoken, or his sociological take on Pennsylvania, etc. His advisors realize this, and are playing 4th-quarter defense by keeping him out of ex tempore, non tele-prompted hope and change venues, where his shallowness can manifest itself in astonishing ways.

The result of these trends is to sow doubt in the American electorate about an otherwise charismatic and electrifying candidate in a year tailor-made for Democrats. In itself, the fissures in the Obama porcelain are not enough for McCain to win: he must focus his message on four or five issues — winning the war on terror, the radical change in Iraq that promises victory, cutting spending and reducing American debt, developing traditional energies in a can-do fashion, as we transition to electric, solar, wind, hydrogen, flex, green etc. power, and closing the border now-discussing the contentious issues later — as he contrasts these with the amorphous always changing opportunism of Obama.

He can't do that via dueling set-speeches; he doesn't do as well on the teleprompter and the media will always amplify that in their selection of clips. But in town-halls, the debates, and in interviews, he can draw the distinctions. The longer the campaign, the more it benefits the older candidate rather than the vigorous, but green youngster.

I have great confidence in the 'maverick' McCain doing the opposite of what he should do just to show that he is a maverick. So VDH may be just whistling in the wind. One example. By tonight, McCain should be talking about the Democratic Charley Schumer Bank Run and talk it and talk it and talk it.

Bet he mentions it once, if at all.
 
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