ECON Update Mass Evictions on Schedule

Doomer Doug

Has No Life - Lives on TB
I can't find the other thread I started on this so I will just restart this one. It was about 6 million American households didn't pay their rent or mortgage payments for September of 2020. It was also about the powers that be kicked the can down the road and punted it to the end of January 2021.
The new article is here. The totals are now 8 million people owing $38 billion in back rent and mortgage payments due 1-31-2021. Obviously, the totals will increase for November, December and January. As we approach Valentine's Day we will be looking at multiple millions of people getting evicted, owing several months back rent and mortgages.


A wave of evictions is set to sweep across the country as COVID-19 reprieve expires
Friday, October 23, 2020 by: JD Heyes
Natural News) As the coronavirus pandemic swept across the country, governors and mayors — on the advice of ‘scientists’ — rushed to enact restrictive lockdowns that included orders to shutter scores of ‘non-essential’ businesses.
The closures of those businesses, many now for months, is what led to rampant and historic unemployment in nearly every sector of society.

Congress moved to provide some economic relief, while states and cities scrambled to enact additional measures such as a moratorium on evictions from properties where unemployed Americans suddenly unable to pay their rent live.

But Americans who own rental property, for the most part, are making payments as well, and those payments are made on income derived from renters; when renters don’t have to pay, there isn’t any income for the property owner, whose payments have not been suspended.

As such, the eviction moratorium U.S. health officials implemented Sept. 1 to extend earlier moratoriums is now set to expire, meaning a new wave of evictions are set to occur, and as winter approaches.

Reuters reported:
It has been a nightmare year for many of America’s renters. The local, state and federal eviction bans that gave them temporary protection in the spring began to lapse in early summer … September’s reprieve by the CDC, which protected many, but not all, renters will expire in January.

At that point, an estimated $32 billion in back rent will come due, with up to 8 million tenants facing eviction filings, according to a tracking tool developed by the global advisory firm Stout Risius and Ross, which works with the nonprofit National Coalition for a Civil Right to Counsel. The nonprofit group advocates for tenants in eviction court to secure lawyers.


According to the Princeton University Eviction Lab, in a normal year only about 3.6 million people are evicted for various reasons, most being non-payment of rent.

Bob Pinnegar, CEO of the National Apartment Association, noted that as property owners enter into their eighth month of nonpayment, they are “not generating sufficient revenue.”
“This is to a high-profit-margin business,” he told Reuters. “Only nine cents of every dollar return to the owner or investor as profit.”

If the Democrat-controlled House led by Speaker Nancy Pelosi refuses to budge on a new coronavirus relief bill, moving past the HEROES Act that contains a lot of left-wing policy priorities, then the tsunami of evictions coming in January will be “unlike anything we have ever seen,” notes John Pollock, a Public Justice Center attorney and coordinator of the National Coalition for a Civil Right to Counsel.

According to the Princeton Lab, about 60,000 evictions have been filed in the 17 cities tracked since the pandemic really began in March. And of course, health experts are warning that people kicked out of their rental property are going to spread the virus elsewhere — to other homes, to homeless shelters, or wherever the evicted renter lands.

“Though eviction filings in many cities dipped considerably in the wake of the CDC’s temporary ban, they haven’t stopped completely,” Reuters reported.

“In some places — like Columbus, Ohio, Jacksonville, Florida and Gainesville, Florida – landlords are filing roughly as many eviction proceedings as they were before the CDC measure. In Richmond, Virginia, for example, there were 152 evictions filed the week of Oct. 4, well over the amount filed weekly during July,” the newswire added.

Why the increases? Because, says Reuters, the CDC’s order is being interpreted differently by judges. Also, there is still a lot of room for landlords to be able to evict people who violate the terms of their leases.

Some have argued that thanks to Trump’s CDC, they have been saved from homelessness as winter approaches.
But it’s just a reprieve. Come January, without a congressional deal, the goodwill is going to run out.
 

Michiana MaJo

Veteran Member
Doug, I have been reading that these unlucky people have only until January first, not the end of Jan.
The sources you mention don’t seem to give the end of Jan., unless I am missing something.
I definitely recall reading, earlier, that renters can’t be evicted for non-pymt. until Jan. 1

Needless to say, it still is a cold shock to be ousted on that date, but it also would be a hardship for many landlords to house their tenants rent-free for several mos., per Govt. orders.
 

Bps1691

Veteran Member
What I don't understand is that if you own a house and can't pay the payments, move the heck out and rent a place. The house market in most areas is ok and unless you were a complete dolt on what you paid of the house, sell it!

If you are renting and you can't afford the rent, find a cheaper place or someone you can live with and split the rent and move the heck out.

It's not like this is just starting, it's been going on for months and to do nothing but ignore the problem is beyond stupid.
 

Kris Gandillon

The Other Curmudgeon
_______________
Additional info at this link for the NAA:

 

Doomer Doug

Has No Life - Lives on TB
It's complicated, since you have a real hodge podge of dates involved. Right now the cdc put an absolute ban on all evictions until 12-31-2031, except I keep seeing all these stories about people being evicted starting on 9-30. The level of confusion, on a state by state basis, between renters and landlords, means nobody really has any idea of what is really happening. You have state mandates, which got superceded by the cdc federal mandate, which gets mixed with the state policies. Seriously, my apartment manager told me whatever the official "eviction date" is NOBODY is getting evicted, at least in Oregon till the end of January
at the earliest. Bottom line is it is a mess, the numbers of people involved are in the millions, and the amounts of money involved are in the billions, and it is going to be a real s%%<storm by next spring. Add in the unpaid utility bills for six months too.
 

hiwall

Veteran Member
Who knows what the powers that be might do next. They might put a hold on evictions for another year. We will have to wait and see what Congress does after the election. A lame duck Congress might pass something or the new Congress in January might pass something. Pretty hard to make a prediction with how goofy everything is in 2020.
 

Blacknarwhal

President-Elect
What I don't understand is that if you own a house and can't pay the payments, move the heck out and rent a place. The house market in most areas is ok and unless you were a complete dolt on what you paid of the house, sell it!

If you are renting and you can't afford the rent, find a cheaper place or someone you can live with and split the rent and move the heck out.

It's not like this is just starting, it's been going on for months and to do nothing but ignore the problem is beyond stupid.
When you've lost a job, and can't find a new one because businesses are still closed, if "cheaper" doesn't mean "free", it's too expensive.
 

Bps1691

Veteran Member
When you've lost a job, and can't find a new one because businesses are still closed, if "cheaper" doesn't mean "free", it's too expensive.
It's always been that way. Tuff times can come out of nowhere even if you had been doing the right things and you can get nailed by the times.

It's a recession when your neighbor loses their job and a depression when you do.

I've had relatives move in with us because of recessions and job loss. If you are a family tribe, you help each other out, even if you must cut your losses and move across the country to family.

I've got friends with rental property who have renters that just quit paying their rent because they could. They took the extra unemployment and other benefits but didn't stop going out to eat, buying things they didn't need and decided that somehow the government would bail them out.

It is the same with people who are deep in debt because they borrowed a fortune to get a degree that would never pay a decent income or that have actual job demands for their skills, then demand that government pay their debt.

I’ve lived on beans and rice because I had to. I lived in a small room in a basement, because I had to. I drove junk cars because I had to. I worked nasty, part time jobs because I had to. I never expected the government to bail me out.
 

jward

passin' thru
just fyi you can double click on your avatar, then hit the "find" button at bottom of top header, then select find all threads started. . .to find threads you've started. Select "all content" to see everything you've posted.

 

Bps1691

Veteran Member
Not to mention, banks tend not to cooperate on short sales, particularly for 2nd/3rd mortgage holders. Apparently they prefer foreclosures.
IF you overextend yourself and have a second or third mortgage you have rocks for brains.

There are too many people in this country who think they can spend, spend, spend without good money management and budgeting and it won’t have consequences when something like the shutdowns come out of the blue. The Mc Mansion people come to mind as well. If you are living paycheck to paycheck and just getting buy before they hit, you’ll sink when they come.

It's one thing to be frugal and a good money manager who gets blindsided by the unexpected medical or a divorce issues compared to someone living that far over their ability to pay. Bad choices are supposed to have consequences and hurt so that the individual can learn from it. It sucks to go through them, but it is a chance to learn.
 

20Gauge

Has No Life - Lives on TB
What I don't understand is that if you own a house and can't pay the payments, move the heck out and rent a place. The house market in most areas is ok and unless you were a complete dolt on what you paid of the house, sell it!

If you are renting and you can't afford the rent, find a cheaper place or someone you can live with and split the rent and move the heck out.

It's not like this is just starting, it's been going on for months and to do nothing but ignore the problem is beyond stupid.
Yet people are stupid.
 

20Gauge

Has No Life - Lives on TB
It's always been that way. Tuff times can come out of nowhere even if you had been doing the right things and you can get nailed by the times.

It's a recession when your neighbor loses their job and a depression when you do.

I've had relatives move in with us because of recessions and job loss. If you are a family tribe, you help each other out, even if you must cut your losses and move across the country to family.

I've got friends with rental property who have renters that just quit paying their rent because they could. They took the extra unemployment and other benefits but didn't stop going out to eat, buying things they didn't need and decided that somehow the government would bail them out.

It is the same with people who are deep in debt because they borrowed a fortune to get a degree that would never pay a decent income or that have actual job demands for their skills, then demand that government pay their debt.

I’ve lived on beans and rice because I had to. I lived in a small room in a basement, because I had to. I drove junk cars because I had to. I worked nasty, part time jobs because I had to. I never expected the government to bail me out.
You are so old fashioned.......lol
 

Blacknarwhal

President-Elect
It's always been that way. Tuff times can come out of nowhere even if you had been doing the right things and you can get nailed by the times.

It's a recession when your neighbor loses their job and a depression when you do.

I've had relatives move in with us because of recessions and job loss. If you are a family tribe, you help each other out, even if you must cut your losses and move across the country to family.

I've got friends with rental property who have renters that just quit paying their rent because they could. They took the extra unemployment and other benefits but didn't stop going out to eat, buying things they didn't need and decided that somehow the government would bail them out.

It is the same with people who are deep in debt because they borrowed a fortune to get a degree that would never pay a decent income or that have actual job demands for their skills, then demand that government pay their debt.

I’ve lived on beans and rice because I had to. I lived in a small room in a basement, because I had to. I drove junk cars because I had to. I worked nasty, part time jobs because I had to. I never expected the government to bail me out.
Okay, I'm all in favor of people making their own way and working and earning money, but it's the same thing as when businesses were going to automation: how do you earn a living when there are no jobs?
 

annieosage

Veteran Member
When you've lost a job, and can't find a new one because businesses are still closed, if "cheaper" doesn't mean "free", it's too expensive.
Exactly. And yes some people wasted the extra $600 on BS stuff but a lot of people used it to live. Let's just say you managed to survive on the max for NV at $426 a week and saved each week of $600. Your rent is $1200 (mine is). So that would be 2x $600 for one month. It ended in July. I don't have the exact dates but April- June- July = 12 weeks x $600 = $7200/ $1200 = 6 months. That would give them rent until the end of the year.

Then what? People are still being laid off here and there's no more $600. Not everyone got laid off in March. Most of my company's layoffs were in August.

Ahhh- I don't know what I am getting at. It's late LOL. But you can't go from making $60- $70k+ a year to nothing and still pay rent. And without a job no one will rent to you- not even the weekly slums. I honestly don't know what the solution is. We already have so much homeless here. It's exhausting to think about.

ETA- "still pay rent" adding: for months on end. Maybe some have a couple month saved up but this is now in the 7th almost 8th month.
 
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marsh

TB Fanatic
Add to this, the home owners who will be delinquent on their property taxes and how that effects funding of schools, cities, counties, sewer, water, sanitation, fire and other districts.
 

Ragnarok

On and On, South of Heaven
What I don't understand is that if you own a house and can't pay the payments, move the heck out and rent a place. The house market in most areas is ok and unless you were a complete dolt on what you paid of the house, sell it!

If you are renting and you can't afford the rent, find a cheaper place or someone you can live with and split the rent and move the heck out.

It's not like this is just starting, it's been going on for months and to do nothing but ignore the problem is beyond stupid.
Rent in my area is twice the amount of what my mortgage payment is.

I HATE being a homeowner but I couldn't afford to rent.
 

bethshaya

Has No Life - Lives on TB
If we weren't Dave Ramsey grads, we would have been in a horrible place. Both DH and I have been out of jobs twice in the last 6 years. We have had our emergency funds to carry us over - 3-6 months of expenses at least. Not to mention the preps.
Sometimes the "SHTF" event we are prepping for us personal.
 

CapeCMom

Veteran Member
Well if you are in an area that actually has rentals available you are lucky. There is NOTHING in my area. The real estate market is so hot that no one is renting anymore. In fact people are being thrown out of their rentals so that the owners can cash in on the market.
 

Redleg

Contributing Member
Ok, they evict millions. Whom is going to move into the now vacated rental properties?
That's a good point. If people still can't get jobs then what? This who system has the domino's effect. No jobs, not taxes to collect to fund government to fund police, schools and so on. What a mess. I hope the idiots who listened to the "scientist" and made the BAD choice to shut everything down at least learn from what they did. People that shout "believe the science" don't realize that there is suck a thing as bad science and never question the findings or how they came to the conclusion.
 

Sid Vicious

Veteran Member
I'd wager a huge chunk of these are renters who thought they could just stop paying the rent. I'm just patiently sitting here waiting to buy a house once the whole thing collapses.
 

brizziechap

Contributing Member
What I don't understand is that if you own a house and can't pay the payments, move the heck out and rent a place. The house market in most areas is ok and unless you were a complete dolt on what you paid of the house, sell it!

If you are renting and you can't afford the rent, find a cheaper place or someone you can live with and split the rent and move the heck out.

It's not like this is just starting, it's been going on for months and to do nothing but ignore the problem is beyond stupid.
Common sense in the light of day.... but for many folks, a house/home has a very strong emotional attachment, and they do not/cannot think straight about the harsh realities involved....
 

Terrwyn

Veteran Member
Who knows what the powers that be might do next. They might put a hold on evictions for another year. We will have to wait and see what Congress does after the election. A lame duck Congress might pass something or the new Congress in January might pass something. Pretty hard to make a prediction with how goofy everything is in 2020.
I'm praying somebody comes up with a solution. 2 of my immediate neighbors have been out of work since this started. Just when our neighborhood had stabilized with decent families too. What a cluster#$%& this is.
 

Terrwyn

Veteran Member
I'd wager a huge chunk of these are renters who thought they could just stop paying the rent. I'm just patiently sitting here waiting to buy a house once the whole thing collapses.
It will collapse too. We bought the wreck of a dope house next door at a Hud auction during the housing collapse caused by the closing of an air base.
 

hiwall

Veteran Member
According to the media, the virus is coming back worse than before. So at least the Dem states will lockdown tighter than a snare drum. No jobs.

But there is still the Federal Reserve. They have been talking about making direct deposits to everyone. They are talking about that for a reason.
 

Blacknarwhal

President-Elect
According to the media, the virus is coming back worse than before. So at least the Dem states will lockdown tighter than a snare drum. No jobs.

But there is still the Federal Reserve. They have been talking about making direct deposits to everyone. They are talking about that for a reason.
Lots of news outlets shrieking like singed teakettles about "COVID fatigue". Basically they're complaining that people are sick of the bulls**t and acting like this is basically the flu, like they did in Sweden. And we all know that THEY hate Sweden, because Sweden makes them all look wrong, which THEY absolutely hate to be.
 

bobfall2005

Veteran Member
Since conservative fiscal policy is no more.
What difference does it make.

The gov closed the economy.
So.
$1000/month. every us citizen.
No current prison guests. No non citizens.
Call it 300 billion/month.

Household income over 100,000 a year?
The 1000/month is 100 percent tax rate.

These are just numbers. Pick what you like.

No airline bailout. No state or local government bailouts. Nothing else's gets bailed out.

Contracts are all the same.
Cdc does not end rental-landlord contracts.
Which was a total fiction, anyway.

You want to stay home, fine
You want to work, fine
Same with your business. Fine

People over 100k/ year return the entire amount.fine

And we figure out the budget collapse later.
Which will happen anyway.

We postpone an major social unrest.

Problem postponed. Fine
 
This is all interesting, makes one wonder though, if the CDC can simply dictate by edict that no more foreclosures for awhile because of health reasons......why not make the minimum wage $20 an hour by edict for 'health reasons'.

Fancy trickery here....
 

Sub-Zero

Veteran Member
When you've lost a job, and can't find a new one because businesses are still closed, if "cheaper" doesn't mean "free", it's too expensive.
Okay, I'm all in favor of people making their own way and working and earning money, but it's the same thing as when businesses were going to automation: how do you earn a living when there are no jobs?
Or when the government shuts down your business or job. It's hard to walk away from a business without turning your equity over to a bank if your property isn't completely paid off.

The banks are the key that people are missing. At least they are part of the problem. Where is the moratorium on banks against foreclosure until June, say, of 2021?
 

Melodi

Disaster Cat
Three observations:

For every person I know that was stupid, I know people who were whacked by medical or other bills they simply couldn't pay or barely pay, they have no savings; not because they bought a fancy TV but because they ended up in the hospital or with a medical condition requiring medications.

On the "who will rent after all the evictions" question, I saw this in both Colorado and more recently in Ireland - it is simply multinational - "vulture funds" buy them up and either sit on them or rent them out at inflated prices to those with money - there are always some people.

Ireland really has a problem with this, because while about 15 years ago I remember a silly statement about "Ireland will just have join the other 'good Europeans' and 'rent like everybody else," Ireland now has a massive problem.

The problem: Their entire retirement system, especially the small Old Age Pension that anyone over a certain age can get if they are in danger of poverty (but also the private pension plans) is based on the majority of people owning a home.

There is no money for rent, so the Old Age pension will either have to be tripled or more in some markets, and/or massive amounts of public housing will have to be built or bought back at full price from the vulture funds.

As it is, Ireland, where for historical reasons having a roof over your head is pretty much a human right (after the famine when people were thrown into the streets to starve, off the land they had farmed for hundreds of years); there is already a severe housing shortage.

And since any resident (especially citizens) can go to a police station and sleep (especially those with kids) and pictures of Mom's with six kids on plastic chairs are not good "press" and the police are saying they can't do their jobs if this continues - well, it looks like stage one is taxpayer money used to re-buy the rental houses from the vulture funds and banks the tax-payers bailed out in 2010.

Something similar is likely to happen in the US, and I can predict that if there are massive evictions in Winter in the USA then the migration will make the "migration" from Oklahoma and Arkansas to the West Coast in the 1930s Dustbowl look pretty small in comparison.

People will flee South and West, in huge numbers in cars, buses, trains, and even on bikes or on foot. Suddenly homeless working class, middle class and even really poor people may be destitute but not always stupid.
 

Blacknarwhal

President-Elect
Or when the government shuts down your business or job. It's hard to walk away from a business without turning your equity over to a bank if your property isn't completely paid off.

The banks are the key that people are missing. At least they are part of the problem. Where is the moratorium on banks against foreclosure until June, say, of 2021?
Better yet, tie the foreclosure moratorium to COVID restrictions. If there's a restriction anywhere in the state, you can't foreclose in it. That'll get this nonsense stopped right quick.
 
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