WAR trouble brewing again in ukraine

danielboon

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Ukraine
There sure are a LOT of PT-76s onboard that train! Someone is planning some amphibious mayhem from the looks of it.

Hope the Ukranians have enough TOW's or Hellfires to take them out. Like the BTR-60, hit them from the rear or the top where the armor is thinnest.
Ukraine has feeble equipment the Russians are not fooling around
 

Doomer Doug

TB Fanatic
There sure are a LOT of PT-76s onboard that train! Someone is planning some amphibious mayhem from the looks of it.

Hope the Ukranians have enough TOW's or Hellfires to take them out. Like the BTR-60, hit them from the rear or the top where the armor is thinnest.
The rumor is they will land west of maripol and encircle it. My gut is telling me, Alfaman is the April 30th" war games" will be more war than games. :arg:
 

Doomer Doug

TB Fanatic
You know the strange thing is, the western governments have gone woke and are becoming more oppressive, I just don’t care about NATO anymore
This has been both predictable and inevitable. They could push yeltsin around but Putin has been preparing for this since 2000. Putin is a nationalist and will never tolerate ukraine in nato. Once nato moved east, to the Russian border, WAR WAS CERTAIN.
 

naegling62

Veteran Member

Nowski

Let's Go Brandon!
You know the strange thing is, the western governments have gone woke and are becoming more oppressive, I just don’t care about NATO anymore
NATO should have ended, when the Soviet Union and Warsaw Pack ended.

The POS Neocons, POS military industrial complex, all ZUSA warmongers
would not allow it. Therefore, we find ourselves today, 30 years later,
looking at a possible world war, because of the basterds.

Please be safe everyone.

Regards to all.

Nowski
 

Doomer Doug

TB Fanatic
The key political date is April 21st, which is Putin's speech, and April 30th, which is when the "war games" start. The two dates are KNOWN. The unknown date is when the ground dries out enough for armor et al to drive around without sinking into a bog.

I see NO historical reason for anybody to do much of anything before Putin's speech, since the ground will likely be mush till then also. This leaves us at April 30th, or the scheduled start of the "war games." I am also thinking the finest minds in Russia are looking at that April 30th date, and concluded it is the one date that lines all three lemons/grenades up in the slot machine.

Under the guise of "war games," Putin is going to POUR his Russian forces into the Eastern Ukraine and he is going to stomp those Nazi wantabes in Kiev, plus all their neo con warmonger, assorted sluts and whores, drooling to rape the ukraines resources even more than biden's gang of looters and scum did, into the military version of the stone age.

The 30th is a little over 3 weeks away from the 7th, and it gives Putin time to assemble his forces properly. In case anybody was looking it takes TIME to deploy the kind of stomp the ukies into the mush force levels, and get all the P's and Q's together.

Back in the 1970's I was in an armor battalion, and I can assure you even moving ONE battalion is a tremendous undertaking. The tanks go to the railhead for transport to Grafenwhohr, while the rest of us drove our trucks etc there. Sometimes I would load my APC, M113 on the rail cars, and sometimes I would drive it, if we were only going a short distance.

We had a budget for road damage, from the tank and APC tracks chewing up the roads, and when you went off road there was an honest to God damage measurement officer to see how badly you crushed some farmer's wheat. :lol:

3 weeks, Alfaman gives the Russians the time they need to deploy to the invasion lift off points. If any of you think things are tough oh now, just wait till Putin has 4,000 tanks ON THE ACTUAL BORDER with all of them being fueled and combat loaded. Again, it takes a vast logistic effort just to keep the stuff fueled and the men fed.

We is going to war, but the pieces aren't in place quite yet. I think the 30th, but Putin may go on the 22nd, which would be the anniversary of Operation Barbarosa back in June of 1941.

Any way you slice it, NATO is going to get its ass kicked if it even twitches, which means it will HAVE TO GO AT LEAST TACTICAL NUKE level, which come to think of it, is exactly what my unit, 2nd Btn, 58th armor was told would happen when the Ruskies came pouring out of the Fulda gap with their 40, 000 tanks. Ain't it amazing, gang that some 45 years later the military equation is still the same. :hdbng:
 

naegling62

Veteran Member
Direct confrontation with Western powers isn't the method he chose in Syria, that's something to think about.
 

Doomer Doug

TB Fanatic
I think biden's handlers are just bat :poop: crazy enough to blunder into a shoot um up war with Russia. I have to say, just my opinion here, for what it is worth, that MANY of the comments coming out of the west the last few days, especially junior trudeau the globalist little turd, sound an awful lot like the "guarantees," given to Poland after the west let Hitler overwhelm the czechs in 1938, and the "guarantees" Chamberlain and Britain gave to the Slovaks, and then just sat back and watched the Wehrmacht roll into them in the spring of 1939. After they had sold out all of Czechoslovakia, THEN they guaranteed Poland, right up to the time Hitler rolled over the border.


And this is a BIGLY, HUGELY, SUPER BIGLY DOT HERE. Is NATO willing to make Ukraine a member of NATO on the eve of a Russian invasion? And if they are, does it mean they will respond to a Clause 5 call from the Ukraine, and if ANY of that happens, does it mean Putin just starts firing the tactical nukes and we go ourselves World War Three.

Whatever guarantees this pathetic loser of a uke prez thinks he has, it don't mean squat unless he has NATO armor divisions, and infantry divisions and ships in the black sea, and airplanes flying CAP over Kiev and donesek, which would likely start a shooting war right there when Putin sent in his fighter jets.

We don't have to have Russian tanks in Brussels for this to head south.

Seriously, if the NATO forces aren't willing to forward deploy WHICH MEANS WAR WITH RUSSIA then the Ukraine is already gone and Trudeau junior should, like all of the other breathless announcement from NATO leaders should just STFU.

Putin is going to test us, and I, for one, don't think we got the chops to do more than whine at him. The stupid ukes are going to pay dearly for listening to biden and nuland.
 

Hognutz

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Everyone is looking forward to, is waiting for, the 21st and or the 30th. Everybody “knows” it is too muddy before end of April.

Which is why this will kick off before then.
Agree, no way are they going to give up the element of surprise, also you can’t keep untold numbers of men at the jumping off point indefinetly
 

Doomer Doug

TB Fanatic
Option One, Mongo is between the 21st and the 30th.
Option Two, Mongo is between the 7th and the 21st.

Still, if Putin rolls the dice between the 7th and the 21st, he risks a logistics disaster like Napoleon and Hitler suffered. Granted, he can fly stuff, or move it by train, or ship. They call it General Mud for a reason. Of course, this could indicate he doesn't plan to do much driving out in the country, and take the canal, take maripol. push forward a few miles and pound the :poop: out of the ukies, and then stop.
Politics wise, using the April 21st speech to announced the war would really freak out NATO.

Yeah, if Putin is just going to seize the canal, secure a land bridge to maripol from the Ukraine, and push forward, say 50 miles? all along the front line, he could do that within the next 3 days or so, assuming he had the logistics set up. My understanding is he still has a vast horde of stuff pouring in from Siberia of all places. Time, ask me for anything but time.
 

Nowski

Let's Go Brandon!
NATO has already broken all the promises made with the last USSR government and the first Russian Federation governments. If Russia decides to fight, they are FAR more than justified in doing so.
^^^^THIS^^^^

This is the most incredible statement, in this entire thread.

The new Russia, is entirely correct in standing up now,
and I wish them the very best, in protecting their territorial rights,
which includes Crimea.

It is almost unbelievable, at how much has changed in the past 30 years.
Russia is most like the ZUSA was then, and the ZUSA has become
basically what the ole Russia was, under the Soviet Union.

I hate war, but this one has to be fought now.

Please be safe everyone.

Regards to all.

Nowski
 

jward

passin' thru
True. I imagine this 'inconvenient truth' is left out of whatever coverage the MSM provides on this event though, eh?
I also imagine that scant attention is given to the relationship Hunter has had in the Ukraine, or, further back, the wheeling, dealing, and stealing that old Hillary did during her days wielding the red reset buttons of graft n greed?

It seems someone, perhaps the analyst I posted who addressed the water issue as the nexus of this, had a way forward that could let all parties dance through this mess as unscathed as possible. Putin is not my enemy, and I still see him as the most likely to perform the role of designated adult and dance us through this, to whatever degree it is possible, if in fact there is any hope to be had.

When the Soviet Union ended in 1990, one of the largest parts of the
agreement with the ZUSA and NATO, was that The Ukraine was never
to become a member of NATO
.

ZUSA and NATO have broken every part of that agreement.

The current problems in The Ukraine that started in 2014,
are the fault of the ZUSA and NATO, not Russia, or the Russians
that live in Crimea and Donbass.

IMHO, Russia has every right to light them up, light them up.

Amazing ain't it. Since 1945, the ZUSA was in the right in its dealings
with the Soviet Union, and the fight against communism.

Now, the communists are in the ZUSA, and it's Russia that is
in the right in its fight, against the ZUSA and NATO.

It's a bad time now. We have dumbarses in control of the ZUSA and NATO,
and they are marching towards a war, that could very well go nuclear.

I no longer pray for the ZUSA, but I do pray for the new Russia,
and for the White people in South Africa, and for the peace of
The City of Jerusalem.

Please be safe everyone. AVOID THE GROID, PLEASE.

Regards to all.

Nowski
 

jward

passin' thru
Not EVERYONE. I've been seeing this as "the guns of April" for weeks now. Which is why it "won't" be. My singular talent is being wrong, which coal is kindly documenting and detailing to his readers. . .every. single. time.
..but yeah. For a group of maff brains, one wonders why a simple spread sheet hasn't been whipped up demonstrating the absolute deplorable assessment and prognostic ability of "everybody" and their buddy "knows". :: shrug ::
:hmm:
Everyone is looking forward to, is waiting for, the 21st and or the 30th. Everybody “knows” it is too muddy before end of April.

Which is why this will kick off before then.
 

danielboon

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Not EVERYONE. I've been seeing this as "the guns of April" for weeks now. Which is why it "won't" be. My singular talent is being wrong, which coal is kindly documenting and detailing to his readers. . .every. single. time.
..but yeah. For a group of maff brains, one wonders why a simple spread sheet hasn't been whipped up demonstrating the absolute deplorable assessment and prognostic ability of "everybody" and their buddy "knows". :: shrug ::
:hmm:
Which is why reading the tea leaves is so difficult God is the only one who knows when this will happen. The picture is slowly coming into focus.
 

jpigott

Veteran Member
[URL='https://twitter.com/MarQs__']marqs

@MarQs__


[/URL]
#Volnovakha: "In half an hour, three powerful explosions. Something not good happening on the front"
View: https://twitter.com/MarQs__/status/1379716918668619777



ML

@MaMLSod



Replying to
@MarQs__
Reports from Kadiivka (Stakhanov) in the Luhansk oblast as well. If memory serves, that used to be a hot spot.
View: https://twitter.com/MaMLSod/status/1379716910422630401
 

jward

passin' thru
When does/did Russian's orthadox church have their Easter. Bet nothing stirs during that...
 

jward

passin' thru
defenseone.com

Putin Ups Efforts to Intimidate Ukraine and Its Allies
By Patrick Tucker Technology Editor

6-8 minutes

Ukrainian servicemen walk along a snow-covered trench guarding their position at the frontline near Vodiane, about 750 kilometers (468 miles) south-east of Kyiv, eastern Ukraine, Saturday, March 5, 2021.

Ukrainian servicemen walk along a snow-covered trench guarding their position at the frontline near Vodiane, about 750 kilometers (468 miles) south-east of Kyiv, eastern Ukraine, Saturday, March 5, 2021. AP / Evgeniy Maloletka

Recent ceasefire violations by Russian-backed forces in Ukraine and reinforcements of regular troops on the Russian side of the border don’t mean Moscow is preparing a major advance or even seriously trying to move the line of conflict, Ukraine officials and experts said. But they do show Vladimir Putin’s continued efforts to exercise control over Kiev’s affairs and peel off its international support.

Over the last several weeks, unverified social media posts show Russian heavy equipment moving closer to the Ukranian border, including howitzers, advanced anti-aircraft missiles and radar, and even an advanced air assault division The moves prompted a Friday phone call between the U.S. President Joe Biden and Ukranian President Volodymyr Zelensky as well as calls between the U.S. State and Defense senior officials and their Ukranian counterparts.
The Russian government has called this mobilization part of routine exercises, an explanation that has failed to impress many observers. But that doesn’t necessarily mean a repeat of Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea.

“This is nothing but the usual Russian tactics—to escalate tension in order to gain momentum and to dissuade the West from supporting Ukraine,” said one Ukranian senior official. “You can always expect that such a major buildup of military forces may lead to a serious escalation of hostilities provoked by Russia. But we always prefer diplomatic and political solutions.”

A former U.S. senior State Department official with deep experience in the conflict called the buildup, and particularly the Russian ceasefire violations, worrisome but said that Moscow was probably not trying to stage a major invasion. “Putin wants to demonstrate that he’s the tough guy…that the U.S. is all talk and no action. That is part of the psychological pushback on the Biden administration… as a demonstration...to Zelensky.” The goal, said the official, was to convince the Ukranians that any Western response “would be weak,” in effect that, “Your friends, they aren’t going to help you.”

The former official also said Russia might also be seeking an opportunity to move more heavy reinforcements into the portions of Ukraine they control via proxy forces, essentially consolidating gains on the ground, however illegally obtained.
Dara Massicot, a senior policy researcher at RAND, said that in order to know more about Russia’s intentions, “we would need to see where these specific forces are deployed to.” Until it’s clear that Russian forces are staging in places, adopting firing positions, or using concealment, “there are more reasons to believe this activity is a readiness check and some type of Russian flex or coercive signal to Ukraine and its supporters.”

Michael Kofman, director of the Russia Studies Program at the CNA, said that Russia’s stated “military exercises” justification does not make sense since exercises would not cover such a wide scope of military activity. He called the deployments worrisome but said that “they appear to be intended for coercive purposes, rather than as preparations for an invasion. The force size is not indicative of large scale offensive plans, and the political goals of such an operation would be unclear.”

Ben Hodges, a former commander of U.S. Army Europe, said that he, too, believes that a larger Russian ground assault is unlikely. “This seems to be more of a demonstration and a test of the Biden Administration...and perhaps to find out exactly what [Biden] means when he says that Ukranian sovereignty is a U.S. priority,” said Hodges, who now holds the Pershing Chair in Strategic Studies at the Center for European Policy Analysis.

Hodges did say it was possible that the buildup was intended to lay groundwork for the seizure of infrastructure and water resources to bring water into Crimea, which has continued to be an issue since the Ukranian government greatly cut water to the area following Russia’s illegal seizure.
Either way, he said, the Kremlin ultimately aims to to destabilize Ukraine, make it harder for Kiev to join NATO, and to isolate Ukraine from the Black Sea, allowing for Russian control of the Black Sea coast.
But if what is happening on the Ukranian border isn’t a large offensive, what is the appropriate U.S. response?

Hodges said the United States needs to develop a strategy for the entire Black Sea region and make clear that the Black Sea is “vital” to U.S. interests. He says Washington should commit more aid and announce more strategic exercising in the region. The U.S. needs to “get serious” about leveling bigger financial penalties on the Russian government for its actions, penalties beyond just the sanctions regime that the international community put on Russia following the initial invasion, he said without specifying what sort of penalties would be appropriate. Additionally, aid Hodges, the United States needs to get France and Germany to better commit to Ukranian sovereignty.

In March, the Kremlin began pushing for a meeting with France and Germany on the issue of Ukraine, a meeting that would leave Ukraine out of discussions about its own future. The former State Department senior official said that that, by itself, was not new. “The Russians do it to send a message” he said, namely that Western democracies can be pulled away from the cause of supporting Ukranian sovereignty. Germany didn’t do much to change that perception after it issued a statement condemning the escalation and urging restraint “on all sides.”

The former senior official said that the Biden team had already taken a number of helpful signaling steps in simply reaching out to Ukraine, both with Friday’s presidential call and the various calls between State and Defense Department officials and their Ukrainian counterparts. From here, Washington could accelerate the delivery of more aid to Ukraine. In March, a bi-partisan group of senators introduced legislation to continue $300 million in aid to the country as well as other aspects of military aid. The Ukraine Security Partnership Act is expected to pass and be again signed into law.

One alternative is to cut military or other aid to Ukraine, as some groups have suggested. The former official said that to do so “would send exactly the signal that Putin wants to send.”

Posted for fair use
 
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