ALERT The Winds of War Blow in Korea and The Far East

jward

passin' thru
cmpr- china military power report published in this weeks' W.o.W. thread. . .

Lucas Tomlinson
@LucasFoxNews

A year ago, Pentagon said China will have 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030. Pentagon now says in a new report China will have 1,500 nuclear warheads by 2035.

(U.S. can only deploy 1,550 strategic nuclear warheads because of a treaty with Russia.)

12:31 PM · Nov 29, 2022
·Twitter for iPhone
 

jward

passin' thru

China COVID protests die down, but policy resentment remains​

Beijing flooded streets with police and security personnel while tweaking COVID response after rare nationwide protests.

Police cars with lights flashing line up along a Beijing street where a protest was rumoured to take place.

'Political security' is a key concern of China's leadership and security services [Thomas Peter/Reuters]
By Shawn Yuan
Published On 30 Nov 202230 Nov 2022

Bill was standing with a group of people mostly in their 20s when a young woman started to lead the chanting. “Give me liberty, or give me death,” she shouted, her voice cracking at one point.
Others followed her lead, repeating the chant, and raising sheets of blank paper, a defining symbol of the latest wave of protests in China.

Keep reading​

list of 4 itemslist 1 of 4

China ramps up COVID vaccination for elderly after rare protests

list 2 of 4

China’s COVID protestors battle censors to air dissent online

list 3 of 4

China protests spread, reports of clashes with police in Shanghai

list 4 of 4

China: Protests erupt over COVID curbs after deadly fire

end of list
“I had tears in my eyes,” said Bill, a 24-year-old graduate student in Chengdu who, like all the other people interviewed for this story, asked to be identified by a pseudonym for fear of retribution. “Hearing those people chanting these words, in China of all the places, makes me feel that I have never been alone.”
“If all of us can be this brave, then this country will still have hope,” he added.
In a rare nationwide display of defiance, protests calling for an end to China’s harsh zero-COVID policy erupted over the weekend in several major cities, including Shanghai and Beijing, and on campuses of dozens of universities, creating one of the biggest political challenges to the government since the unrest in Hong Kong in 2019.
The demonstrations began after a fire in a high-rise apartment building in Xinjiang’s Urumqi last Friday that left at least 10 people dead; protesters blame the deaths on the strict measures linked to the government’s zero-COVID policies. Videos posted online showed that the barriers erected in front of the neighbourhood compound, as part of the city’s prolonged coronavirus lockdown, hampered the firefighters’ access to the building.
A crowd gathers at night in Beijing holding blank sheets of paper to show their anger over the COVID-19 lockdowns
Blank sheets of paper, representing censorship and what is not allowed to be said, have emerged as a unifying element of the protests across China [Thomas Peter/Reuters]
The outpouring of anger, at a level rarely seen in China’s tightly controlled society, consumed Chinese social media. In post after post on Weibo and WeChat, two of China’s biggest social media platforms, people demanded justice for the victims and that the government drop zero-COVID, which has slowed down the economy and upended millions of people’s lives.
“WeChat felt like a war that night,” Su, a freelance writer based in Shanghai, wrote on the platform. “Almost every minute, someone writes or reposts something that would normally be deemed too sensitive to share.”
The censors, as expected, scrambled to delete posts. Trending topics referencing the Urumqi fire, for example, were dragged down the Weibo trending list, but the sheer volume of discussion happening online took many platforms by surprise and many posts continued to circulate.

Defiance​

Protests are not rare in China, but they mostly occur in limited spaces and focus on clearly defined economic problems such as labour, property and financial issue. What is unusual this time is the nationwide nature of the anger and the single, common cause of outrage.

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The last nationwide political protests were in 198,9 when college students led a pro-democracy movement that swept across China. That movement ended with a bloody massacre in Tiananmen Square, putting an unspeakable yet powerful halt to nearly all subsequent grassroots protests.


“If you’ve been following Chinese politics for long enough, you have to wonder whether the anti-lockdown protests are getting near the point where serious top-down nationwide crackdown becomes pretty much inevitable,” Taisu Zhang, a professor at Yale Law School, wrote on social media.


While the Urumqi fire was the catalyst for the protesters, in some places, the demonstrations became more politically charged with zero-COVID, a key initiative of President Xi Jinping.


In Shanghai’s Wulumuqi Road, named after the city of Urumqi, protesters began to utter words that were previously unimaginable. “Communist Party,” one shouted. “Step down,” the rest of the group responded. “Xi Jinping,” another one called. “Step down,” emboldened demonstrators shouted back.


In Beijing, hundreds of people gathered on Sunday night, calling for press freedom, among other demands.

Masked people gather at a nighttime protest against COVID measures in Chengdu, China.
Protesters came out onto the streets of Chengdu with some chanting slogans in support of freedom of speech and the press [Social media video via Reuters]
In Chengdu, crowds chanted “China doesn’t need an emperor,” an implicit reference to Xi’s third term and the removal of constitutional limits on presidential terms. In Guangzhou, crowds sang the iconic Cantonese song by the band Beyond with the line “forgive me for my life’s unbridled indulgence and love for freedom.”


One online video showed a young man standing still in front of a moving police vehicle in an apparent effort to pay tribute to the famous Tank Man of Tiananmen Square, who stood in front of a line of tanks rolling into the Square in the lead-up to the bloody crackdown in 1989.


More than 30 years later, the young man was soon shoved down and arrested by the police, along with two others who had joined him in front of the vehicle.


Anger continued despite the arrests. “If I don’t speak up due to fear of the regime, I think our people will be disappointed,” a student said during a protest at Beijing’s Tsinghua University, the alma mater of the Chinese president. “As a Tsinghua student, I’d regret this for the rest of my life.”


“We should not be afraid of our government, and even our national anthem asked us to rise up in times of hardship,” one 36-year-old veteran from the Chinese army said, referring to the Chinese national anthem that starts with the line: “Rise up, people who do not wish to be slaves.”


“I sustained many injuries as a soldier, but I do not regret it, because I’m a Chinese citizen and I believe all of us have the right as Chinese citizens to rise up,” he continued.

China’s COVID-19 response measures include mass testing, strict lockdowns, tracing and tracking [File: Andy Wong/AP Photo]

Policy tweaks​


On the surface, the government has responded in some positive ways to the outpouring of anger: lockdowns were lifted in most places across Urumqi, while a project to build an enormous quarantine centre in Chengdu was halted overnight. Other cities have also adjusted their approaches to mass testing.


The government also announced on Tuesday it would speed up vaccination for the elderly.


But the security response has also been swift.


“The government has a playbook for dealing with these kinds of events and have been hardening the system for many years for just these kinds of threats,” longtime China-watcher Bill Bishop wrote in his Sinocism blog, noting that “political security” is “task number one” for the country’s leadership and security services.


In the initial hours of the protests, state media coverage was largely absent, with occasional mentioning of “foreign forces,” the government’s usual scapegoat.


But as the demonstrations appeared to gather steam, arrests began.


The police presence was increased in nearly all big cities, and — making use of the mass surveillance system built up over the years — the government started to identify protesters using GPS and phone services. On Tuesday, the Communist Party’s top security body called for a “crackdown” on “hostile forces”.


Many sources told Al Jazeera that they had been subjected to random phone searches, too. Online posts suggested that police were stopping people to search for apps that are banned in China, including Telegram and Twitter, and text exchanges for any mention of words like “demonstrations” or “protests”.


The question now is where this wave of protests will go.


Some of the protesters are defiant.


“We are going to keep fighting until we cannot fight anymore, and we don’t know when or how that day will come,” Su from Shanghai said.

Police walking across a street, with barriers behind, at a Beijing junction where a protest had been held the day before.
The police and security presence has been stepped up in cities such as Beijing, where protests have emerged [Ng Han Guan/Reuters]
But analysts say it is more likely that they will fizzle out, as most such movements do in nearly all countries.


“Having erupted spontaneously in a short period, they will fade away without reaching any climax or denouement,” William Hurst, a professor at the University of Cambridge and an expert on China, wrote an analysis of events on Twitter.


“A second possibility is some form of comprehensive & decisive repression. This could take the form of a coordinated and possibly quite violent crackdown (as in 1989), or it could be slower-motion and at least somewhat less bloody (as in Hong Kong in 2019-2020),” he continued.


Tough choices​


Beyond the changes that have taken place so far, observers are sceptical that there will be systematic change to the zero-Covid policy, let alone any political change.


Three years since the first coronavirus cases were detected in the central city of Wuhan, lockdowns, mass testing, quarantine and tracking remain the key tools in the country’s COVID-19 response.


The government says such measures remain necessary because of a relatively low vaccination rate among the elderly, who are more vulnerable to the disease.


China has reported a record-high number of cases in the past few days, with a slight fall reported for a second day on Wednesday.


China’s vaccination campaign has been a puzzle for many.


Despite having won itself ample time to inoculate its population after the initial harsh lockdowns in early 2020, the government failed to administer sufficient vaccines to its large elderly and immunocompromised population.


There are questions too about the efficacy of Chinese-made vaccines, especially against variants such as Omicron, which are now sweeping the country.




The fear is that once the policy is relaxed, the health system will be unable to cope, and there will be a devastating surge in deaths.


But many younger people have had enough of those arguments and the seemingly endless disruption to their lives.


“It’s a matter of time before each of us gets affected by this series of stupid anti-pandemic measures,” said Max, a 23-year-old resident of Dali in southwestern Yunnan province.


“We are all fed up, so I think it’s my duty to stand up,” he added, quoting the young man filmed riding a bike into Tiananmen Square during the 1989 pro-democracy protests.
 

northern watch

TB Fanatic

Russian, Chinese bombers fly joint patrols over Pacific​

Russian and Chinese strategic bombers have flown a joint patrol over the western Pacific in a show of increasingly close defense ties between the two countries
By The Associated Press
November 30, 2022, 9:18 AM

WireAP_0151c2346b744fd6b84c78afbfa4ca8a_16x9_992.jpg


MOSCOW -- Russian and Chinese strategic bombers on Wednesday flew a joint patrol over the western Pacific in a show of increasingly close defense ties between the two countries.

The Russian Defense Ministry said that the Tu-95 bombers of the Russian air force and the Chinese H-6K bombers flew over the Sea of Japan and the East China Sea during an eight-hour mission
.

As part of the drills, the Russian bombers for the first time landed in China and the Chinese bombers flew to an air base in Russia, the ministry said in a statement. It noted that the joint patrols weren't directed against any other country.

China’s Defense Ministry described Wednesday’s patrols as a “routine” part of an annual cooperation plan between the two militaries.

The exercise follows a series of joint drills intended to showcase a growing military cooperation between Moscow and Beijing as they both face tensions with the United States.

In September, Beijing sent more than 2,000 troops along with more than 300 military vehicles, 21 combat aircraft and three warships to take part in a sweeping joint exercise with Russia. The maneuvers marked the first time that China has sent forces from three branches of its military to take part in a single Russian drill, in what was described as a show of the breadth and depth of China-Russia military cooperation and mutual trust.

Defense cooperation between Moscow and Beijing has grown stronger since Russian President Vladimir Putin sent his troops into Ukraine on Feb. 24.

China, which has declared a “no limits” friendship with Russia, has pointedly refused to criticize Moscow’s actions, blaming the U.S. and NATO for provoking the Kremlin, and has blasted the punishing sanctions imposed on Russia.

Russia, in turn, has strongly backed China amid the tensions with the U.S. that followed a visit to Taiwan by U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

Washington has warned Beijing against offering Russia direct military or economic assistance, although China’s energy-hungry economy is one of the biggest customers for Russian oil and gas. Its purchases more than doubled compared with a year ago, to $10.2 billion in October, as Chinese importers took advantage of discounts offered by Moscow.

In a letter Tuesday, Chinese President Xi Jinping said Beijing was ready to “forge closer partnership” with Russia in energy, potentially expanding ties.

 

jward

passin' thru

North Korea warns of ‘violent death’ for ‘political moron’ Yoon Suk-yeol | NK News​


shreyasreddy

1 minute



New propaganda booklet says South Korea conspiring with US to wage nuclear war against DPRK, likens Yoon to dictator

North Korea has published a new propaganda booklet denouncing South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol as a “political moron” and warning that he will meet a “violent death.”
“The Gallop to Ruin,” issued by Pyongyang Publishing House last Wednesday and subsequently released online by propaganda website DPRK Today, takes aim at Yoon’s pro-U.S. and pro-Japan stances and said that he is heading toward self-destruction.
 

jward

passin' thru

Xi acknowledges uproar in China over COVID restrictions, signals easing: Report​


Ryan King

4–5 minutes



December 02, 2022 07:35 PM
Chinese President Xi Jinping privately acknowledged the civil unrest over the country's stringent "zero COVID" policy in conversations with a European official, according to multiple reports.

Stopping short of acquiescing to the democratic underpinnings in some of the demonstrations, Xi told European Council President Charles Michel during a meeting in Beijing on Thursday that the protesters were “mainly students” exhausted from the three years of harsh pandemic suppression measures, sources told CNN and the Wall Street Journal.

PENTAGON REPORT DETAILS CHINESE COMMUNIST PARTY'S PLANS FOR MILITARY EXPANSION

“Xi also said omicron is less deadly than delta, which makes the Chinese government feel more open to further relaxing COVID restrictions,” a European Union official told CNN.

Xi Jinping, Charles Michel
In this photo released by Xinhua News Agency, Chinese President Xi Jinping, right, shakes hands with European Council President Charles Michel before their meeting at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, Thursday, Dec. 1, 2022. (Ding Lin/Xinhua via AP)
Ding Lin/AP

Michel provoked the acknowledgment from Xi when underscoring the effectiveness of vaccines, per the Wall Street Journal. China has spurned Western vaccines and opted for its own, which tout a markedly lower efficacy.

Over recent days, footage swirled on social media showcasing protesters demonstrating against the "zero COVID" policy and even calling for Xi's resignation in some instances. Chants of "Freedom!" and "Xi Jinping, step down!" were heard from protesters on the streets of cities, including Beijing and Shanghai.

Much of the outcry was catalyzed by the building fire that killed 10 amid sealed-in apartment doors due to quarantine policies in the western city of Urumqi, Xinjiang. That province has been in lockdown for nearly three months.

Some have compared the recent tumult to the 1989 Tiananmen Square pro-democracy movement, which prompted a bloody crackdown from the Chinese Communist Party credited with killing somewhere between hundreds to several thousand demonstrators. Many observers have noted the unrest has been smaller in size thus far.

This is an extraordinary, historic moment in China
Protests are breaking out across the country-from Beijing, to elite colleges, to other major cities, and even far flung places
Shocking to hear people chanting for Xi to step down
This is people past their breaking point @cnn pic.twitter.com/6lccNGIycT
— Selina Wang (@selinawangtv) November 27, 2022

Xi recently secured a third five-year term as the head of China. Under his reign, China has sought to root out the spread of COVID-19 and achieve no new infections through government policy, drawing a sharp contrast with the recent approach of many Western nations. Chinese state media have largely rallied in defense of the policy approach, arguing it was needed to save lives.


CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER

In addition to snap lockdowns and strict quarantine measures, the Chinese government has enacted mass testing and leaned on technology to keep its citizens in line. Other Chinese officials had similarly hinted at a relaxation of COVID-19 lockdown measures in the wake of the mass protests. China's Guangzhou city recently eased some of its restrictions.

During the three-hour meeting Thursday in China's Great Hall of the People, Xi and Michel also discussed the raging war in Ukraine, trade matters, Taiwan, Xinjiang human rights concerns, and more, per European accounts of the discussion.https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/foreign/xi-acknowledges-uproar-china-covid-restrictions
 

jward

passin' thru

Nuclear envoys of U.S., S. Korea hold meeting over N. Korean provocations | Yonhap News Agency​


변덕근

~3 minutes



WASHINGTON, Dec. 2 (Yonhap) -- South Korea's nuclear negotiator Lee Joon-il met his U.S. counterpart here on Friday to discuss ways to deal with increasingly provocative North Korea.
The meeting between Lee and U.S. Deputy Special Representative for North Korea Jung Pak came about a week after Lee was appointed the director-general for North Korean nuclear affairs.
"The two sides agreed that the international community must clearly show its determination to denuclearize North Korea is stronger than North Korea's effort to develop its nuclear and missile capabilities as North Korea continues its provocations that clearly violate multiple United Nations Security Council resolutions," South Korea's foreign ministry said of the meeting in a press release.
"To this end, (they) agreed on the need to thoroughly implement UNSC sanctions on North Korea under close cooperation with the international community and agreed to continue working closely together, while reviewing the simultaneous announcement of unilateral sanctions by South Korea, the U.S. and Japan," it added.
Washington designated three senior members of the North's ruling Workers' Party on Thursday for directing or supporting the country's illegal weapons development programs.
Seoul slapped sanctions on eight North Korean individuals and seven entities, with Tokyo imposing its own sanctions on three North Korean institutions and one individual the same day.
Lee and Pak held in-depth discussions on ways to limit North Korea's illegal cyber activities, according to the South Korean foreign ministry.
Adrienne Watson, spokesperson for the U.S. National Security Council, earlier noted Pyongyang is turning to "increasingly desperate ways" such as virtual currency heists and other cybercrimes to generate revenue for its weapons development programs.
"As the DPRK adjusts its tactics in the face of international pressure, we will continue to use all available tools to further limit the growth of these destabilizing weapons programs," Watson said in a statement released earlier Friday.
DPRK stands for the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, North Korea's official name.
 

jward

passin' thru

Dozens of senators warn China of ‘grave consequences’ if it uses violence against protesters​


Laura Kelly





AP Photo/Ng Han Guan, File
Protesters hold up blank papers and chant slogans as they march in protest in Beijing, Sunday, Nov. 27, 2022. The recent wave of protests against China’s anti-virus restrictions was a ray of hope for some supporters of Hong Kong’s own pro-democracy movement after local authorities stifled it using a national security law enacted in 2020, but not everyone agrees.


Nearly half of the Senate signed onto a pointed letter to China’s Ambassador in Washington on Friday, warning of “grave consequences” and “extraordinary damage” to Sino-U.S. relations if Beijing carries out violence against recent protesters.
The letter, sent to Chinese Ambassador Qin Gang and signed by 42 senators from both parties, said Congress is closely watching the peaceful protests and issued a warning that the Chinese Communist Party should not repeat the infamous violence carried out during the 1989 Tiananmen Square Massacre.

“We are following the current peaceful protests in China over your government’s policies very carefully. We are also closely watching the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) reaction to them,” the senators wrote.
“In 1989, the Chinese Communist Party and People’s Liberation Army undertook a violent crackdown on peacefully protesting Chinese students, killing hundreds, if not thousands.”
The senators continued, “We caution the CCP in the strongest possible terms not to once again undertake a violent crackdown on peaceful Chinese protesters who simply want more freedom. If that happens, we believe there will be grave consequences for the US-China relationship, causing extraordinary damage to it.”

The letter was led by Sens. Todd Young (R-Ind.), Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska) and Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.), along with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and 38 others from both parties.
Chinese citizens have launched unprecedented protests across the country, with frustration boiling over against Chinese President Xi Jinping’s strict “zero COVID” lockdown policies. Activists have go so far as to call for Xi and the CCP to be removed from power.
The reaction from U.S. lawmakers strikes a more defiant warning to the CCP than statements from Biden administration officials, who have expressed support for protests that began last weekend but have not issued threats as explicit as the lawmakers’ letter.
Chinese citizens began taking to the streets on Sunday after 10 people were killed in an apartment fire in Urumqi, the capital of the Xinjiang region, with the deaths blamed in part on coronavirus lockdown measures.
Protests are being reported in dozens of cities in China, but tracking their proliferation is difficult because Chinese censors are working to take down social media posts and communication related to the dissent.
The Associated Press reports that Chinese authorities have used pepper spray to disperse hundreds of protesters, and some physical confrontations between protesters and security officials have been observed.

National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said Friday that the Biden administration has consistently talked about “how seriously we take the right of free assembly and freedom of expression and peaceful protests, and we’re going to continue to do that, whether it’s in China or Iran or anywhere else.”
Kirby said the administration is closely watching the protests and also spoke out against the use of violence.
“We don’t believe and we’ve said this, too, that any government — be that government a democracy or an autocracy — should should coerce, intimidate, hurt or hinder the ability for people to peacefully protest.”

Lawmakers and experts have said the Biden administration is likely taking a cautious approach toward expressing support for the protesters to avoid feeding accusations and propaganda put out in Chinese media that foreign forces are fomenting the unrest.

Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.), chairman of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, told CNN on Tuesday that members of Congress have more freedom than the White House in speaking out against the CCP’s treatment of protesters, saying “We don’t want to feed the propaganda machinery.”
“If they’re able to portray this as kind of an anti-Chinese or Western plot, that undermines the very protesters that were trying to stand with,” Warner said.
 

OldArcher

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Tiananmen Square endgame shows how well the ChiComs bow to world public opinion, vis-a-vis peaceful protests. The world, without Communists and tyrants, would be a much more peaceful place…

OA
 

jward

passin' thru

China Activates Emergency Level of Censorship Following Mass Protests​

Chinese officials initiated the highest level of censorship of the protests and ramped up the crackdown on tools used to bypass the nation’s internet control, according to reports, offering a glimpse of how the communist regime responded to the toughest challenges in decades.


From the capital Beijing to the remote county of Korla, Chinese citizens took to the streets, calling for an end to the strict COVID curbs and demanding freedom. In Shanghai, residents directed their anger toward the Chinese Communist Party and its top leader, demanding that they step down.


Describing what Shanghai residents chanted in the demonstration as “pernicious political slogans,” the authorities urged websites to “strengthen their content management,” according to a leaked notice published by China Digital Times, a Berkeley-based website dedicated to archiving content censored in China.


The leaked directive was reportedly issued following a meeting at the Cyberspace Administration of China, the country’s internet regulator, on Nov. 28, during which officials ordered online platforms to initiate “Level I Internet Emergency Response, the highest level of content management.”


“Given the recent high-profile events in various provinces,” information about street protests and related reports from foreign news outlets shared on the country’s internet “must be rapidly identified, dealt with, and reported,” read the notice, which was first published by a Twitter user under the name Li Laoshi, an aggregator of protest-related information.

Epoch Times Photo People sing slogans while gathering on a street in Shanghai on Nov. 27, 2022. (Hector Retamal/AFP via Getty Images)
With the world’s most sprawling and sophisticated online censorship and surveillance apparatus, known as the Great Firewall, Chinese authorities blocked access to websites from Google to The New York Times. Western social media platforms are also banned in the country.


Officials are required to remain on high alert and strengthen “preliminary content audits” at upcoming “sensitive dates,” including Dec. 10, World Human Rights Day.


Curb Access to VPNs​


In a separate notice, officials are told to launch a “thorough clean-up” of virtual private networks, known as VPNs, and other tools that people use to circumvent the country’s internet restrictions.


The authorities also get platforms to take down videos and other documents explaining how to bypass the firewall, which was called “harmful content” in the leaked notice. It also asked search engines to remove results for related search terms.

Epoch Times Photo A man is arrested while people gather to protest on a street in Shanghai on Nov. 27, 2022. (Hector Retamal/AFP via Getty Images)
As protests erupted last weekend, Chinese social media users have developed creative ways to bypass censors, racing to spread videos and photos related to the protests. Any protest details that successfully emerged on the tightly controlled internet were quickly taken down.


China’s censors also suppress comments and images of white paper, now a symbol of defiance after young demonstrators were seen holding up a blank sheet of white A4 paper.


Amid domestic censorship, Twitter, which is blocked from the country’s internet, became a platform for Chinese netizens to share demonstration updates. People use VPNs and other tools to share images and footage of protests taking place across China with the rest of the world.


Earlier this week, police in Beijing asked to inspect travelers’ phones to see if they have VPNs and foreign apps blocked in China, according to reports and online videos.


Heavy security was seen at previous demonstration sites in Beijing and Shanghai following the unprecedented protests that erupted in at least 10 Chinese cities last weekend. The last time China saw such large-scale protests was in 1989, when tens of thousands of college students gathered in Beijing’s Tiananmen Square to call for democracy and reform. The CCP responded by sending tanks and troops to crush the young protesters.


Amid foot patrols and flashing lights from lines of police vehicles, planned protests in Beijing in recent days were reportedly canceled. On Dec. 2, there were few signs of further gathering.


While Guangzhou and several other Chinese cities on Dec. 1 relaxed COVID restrictions at some level, officials in Jinzhou, a city in the northwest province of Liaoning, told residents they will continue to implement the zero-COVID approach.
 

jward

passin' thru

Space race 2.0: China is building weapons to attack U.S. 'ground, sea, or air targets from orbit'​


Bill Gertz


China is rapidly building a large force of space weapons, including sophisticated anti-satellite missiles, lasers, jammers, orbiting killer robots and cybertools, to “blind and deafen” a war enemy, the U.S. military is warning.

The Pentagon released details of Beijing’s growing space arms arsenal last week in its annual report to Congress on the Chinese military.

“The [People’s Liberation Army] continues to acquire and develop a range of counter-space capabilities and related technologies, including kinetic-kill missiles, ground-based lasers, and orbiting space robots, as well as expanding space surveillance capabilities, which can monitor objects in space within their field of view and enable counter-space actions,” the 195-page report states.

The report said Chinese space forces and related support elements continue to “mature rapidly.”

The Pentagon report, based on Defense Intelligence Agency information, discloses for the first time that China is working on space-based weapons capable of attacking enemy targets on Earth’s surface.

“Since at least 2006, the government-affiliated academic community in China began investigating aerospace engineering aspects associated with space-based kinetic weapons — generally a class of weapon used to attack ground, sea, or air targets from orbit,” the report said.

Firing weapons from space is technologically difficult because of the challenges of distance and atmospheric reentry. Research on such arms includes studies on methods of reentry, separation of payload, delivery vehicles, and transfer orbits for targeting.

The research appears to be behind China’s unprecedented test in July 2021 of a “fractional orbital bombardment system,” or FOBS. The test involved the launch of an ICBM with a hypersonic glide vehicle from China that traveled about 24,800 miles and was in space for more than 100 minutes.

The report called the FOBS test the longest of any Chinese land attack weapons system to date.

The Soviet Union researched a FOBS strike weapon in the 1980s, but the United States has no similar strategic weapons system.

The U.S. Space Force is said to be developing counterspace weapons, but all the force’s work on space warfare tools is classified.

Michael J. Listner, a space expert with Space Law & Policy Solutions, said the Pentagon report highlights the PLA’s space weapons use in a conflict but fails to consider that the same space warfare tools could be used preemptively to cripple the U.S. military before a larger offensive.

“Crippling U.S. space assets would be a logical move on the part of the PLA, given their view of deterrence is preemptive in nature and designed to escalate a situation to the point of dissuading an adversary from further escalating the scope of a conflict,” Mr. Listner said.

China’s military has deployed a missile system that can hit all satellites passing in low-Earth orbit, about 1,200 miles or lower in space. PLA war games regularly use the ground-launched missiles in anti-satellite training exercises.

The Chinese military is also working on missiles that can attack strategic satellites in geosynchronous orbit. Most military and intelligence satellites orbit 22,236 miles above Earth.

The report noted China’s destructive missile test against a Chinese weather satellite in 2007. That test generated more than 3,000 pieces of dangerous debris. A total of 2,700 pieces remain and will continue orbiting for decades, the report said.

China launched an object into space in 2013 on a ballistic trajectory with a peak orbit above 18,600 miles — near geosynchronous orbit.

“No new satellites were released from the object, and the launch profile was inconsistent with traditional [space launchers], ballistic missiles, or sounding rocket launches for scientific research, suggesting a basic capability could exist to use ASAT technology against satellites at great distances and not just LEO,” the report said.

China’s military also is building sophisticated space-based robots for satellite inspection and repair that also can attack satellites.

Last year, the PLA launched multiple satellites for space maintenance and debris cleanup. The Shijian-21 was sent into geosynchronous orbit in January and moved a defunct BeiDou navigation satellite “to a high graveyard orbit above GEO,” the report said.

The PLA also launched a maneuvering satellite with a robotic arm that the report said could be used to grab orbiting satellites and destroy or damage them.

Surveillance system

China also has established a system of sensors that can search, track and target satellites. The telescopes, radars and other sensors can be used to target anti-satellite missiles or guide killer satellites.

Another key element of the PLA space warfare arsenal is electronic warfare weapons.

PLA exercises routinely include the jamming of multiple types of space-based communications, radar systems and GPS navigation that are key to U.S. military movements and precision-guided weapons.

For the past 20 years, the PLA has been developing and fielding directed energy weapons, such as lasers that can dazzle or destroy electro-optical satellites.

China has multiple ground-based laser weapons of varying power levels to disrupt, degrade, or damage satellites that include a current limited capability to employ laser systems against satellite sensors,” the report said.

More sophisticated lasers are being developed.

“By the mid- to late-2020s, China may field higher power systems that extend the threat to the structures of non-optical satellites,” the report said.

“The PLA expects space to play an important role in future conflicts by enabling long-range precision strikes and in denying other militaries the use of overhead command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (C4ISR) systems,” the report said.

The PLA has no independent force similar to the U.S. Space Force, but the new Strategic Support Force, a service-level component, oversees all PLA space operations in addition to electronic and cyber warfare. The Pentagon report includes a map of China that identifies six Strategic Support Force space warfare bases across the country and a headquarters in Beijing.

The Strategic Support Force also runs tracking, telemetry and command stations in several locations worldwide to track ships.

The PLA’s space warfare capabilities are regarded as part of a suite of niche weapons that will assist in fighting and winning a war against a “strong enemy,” a euphemism for the United States.

The weapons are designed to prevent the United States from using space, a key strategic advantage for the military, during a crisis or conflict.
 

jward

passin' thru

Does India’s Navy Need More Nuclear Submarines?​


by Girish Linganna​


The deployment of a squadron of nuclear-powered attack submarines—also known as Submersible Ship Nuclear (SSN)—near the coast of India and throughout the Indian Ocean represents a potential threat to the regional ambitions of the Chinese Navy. Diesel-electric submarines are less expensive and more suited for coastal defense but SSNs are a considerable investment for India’s meager defense budget.
The Indian government authorized the construction of six nuclear-powered attack submarines in 2015. Construction is expected to begin next year and the first submarine is slated to enter service in 2032. The Indian Navy recently operated a single Russian Akula-class attack submarine, the INS Chakra, on a ten-year lease.

Different fleets demand different submarines. The U.S. Navy favors nuclear submarines due to their infinite endurance even though they are more expensive. A combination of diesel and nuclear submarines is an efficient answer for Russia and China, which occasionally conduct operations offshore but prioritize coastal defense and activities closer to land.
It makes sense for India to equip its submarines with nuclear propulsion systems so that they will not be surprised by an attack when they are docked; India does not want to be caught off guard. However, the 2020 defense budget was only $70 billion, significantly lower than China’s budget of $193 billion. India’s defense resources are already being cut even though China and Pakistan present potential dangers on numerous fronts.

Experts suggest that New Delhi will either need to lower its spending on other military investments or earmark additional monies to develop SSNs. India is now debating if it needs an extra aircraft carrier or if SSNs will suffice.
Two arguments run counter to this logic. First, conventional submarines will be more expensive to acquire and operate in the future, considering the recent Australian experience with the French submarine construction program. They may not be as costly as nuclear submarines but they might be closer to that in acquisition and cycle maintenance. Nuclear submarines come at a premium price but provide unparalleled deployment and strategic value. Second, part of India’s SSN costs are already being absorbed by the six conventional submarines it was supposed to build in the future.

Fueling India’s Naval Defense
In addition to Chinese expansion, the AUKUS pact between the United States, the United Kingdom, and Australia is a cause for concern. Indian security experts are concerned about the decrease in the Indian Navy’s conventional capabilities given the prospect of Australian nuclear submarines operating in the region. After all, growth in the number of Australian submarines in the Indian Ocean will weaken India’s local influence and authority.
India has a distinct perspective on the geopolitical geography of the surrounding area, in contrast to the viewpoint held by the United States regarding the “Indo-Pacific region.” For India, the Indian Ocean is more significant than the Pacific Ocean which, from India’s perspective, is where the competition between the United States and China is taking place. According to India, the “Indo-Pacific” region can be found from the Middle East to the east coast of Africa. New Delhi considers itself the dominant power in the “Indian” portion. Indians place significant importance on the Pacific Ocean since it might become a potential source of danger and unpredictability for the region.

This may further fuel the Australian-Chinese rivalry in the Indian ocean. Indian security analysts are concerned that the AUKUS initiative will irritate the Chinese government, leading Beijing to increase its naval activities from the South China Sea to the Indian Ocean. It is possible for China’s naval forces to partially relocate some of their operations to the eastern part of the Indian Ocean. Indian Navy leaders will be forced to change their plans in response to the significant increase in China’s naval presence. For instance, as a response, India might be forced to deploy a portion of its naval forces in the South China Sea to maintain a sense of balance. However, this will only further worsen relations between India and China.
There are about 130 nuclear submarines currently on active duty in the world’s navies. India only has one, in comparison to China’s twelve. India presently has two ballistic missile-firing submarines, or Submersible Ship Ballistic Missile Nuclear (SSBN). It is expected to operate three Arihant-class SSBNs in the short term. However, SSBNs cannot be used in place of SSNs, which is a “fast attack submarine” that uses torpedoes to strike enemy targets.

By contrast, an SSBN must be safeguarded by an SSN or other assets, although it carries torpedoes for self-defense because it often carries land-attack missiles with nuclear warheads. Both the SSN and SSBN rely on nuclear reactors for their electricity. So, in 2019, New Delhi and Moscow agreed to lease the Chakra-3 submarine for $3 billion. Chakra boats have cruise missile firing capabilities. Yet, due to China’s growing naval presence and the delays in India’s nuclear submarine project, India will need as many submarines as it can get its hands on.
At the same time, India does not intend to rely solely on partners from other countries when constructing its nuclear submarine fleet. New Delhi wants to create its own technology.
 

jward

passin' thru

More Details On China's Exotic Orbital Hypersonic Weapon Come To Light​


Emma Helfrich, Tyler Rogoway​


The U.S. Department of Defense has added additional color to the mysterious nuclear-capable hypersonic weapon test China conducted over a year ago, saying that it “likely demonstrated” the People’s Republic of China’s capacity to field this capability.
The test made headlines that year for demonstrating the use of a fractional orbital bombardment (FOB) system capable of flying “around the world,” as now-retired Air Force General John Hyten described it, by staying in orbit for as long as the user deems necessary before re-entering the atmosphere with immense kinetic energy and gliding to its target. In official documents released on November 29, the Pentagon detailed what is presently known about China's FOB-capable hypersonic weapon, going so far as to say that the missile traveled approximately 24,854 miles (40,000 kilometers) during the July 2021 test.

This information was included in the Defense Department’s annual Military and Security Developments Involving the People's Republic of China report, more commonly known as the China Military Power Report (CMPR), which serves as an assessment of China’s current defense strategy and military capabilities. While the CMPR analyzes a wide array of Chinese military advancements, it was especially beneficial in clarifying what exactly occurred during the country's highly intriguing hypersonic weapon test that took place on July 27, 2021, which can be read about in detail here.
The event largely left more questions than answers about China’s hypersonic capabilities, namely whether or not the country actually has a FOB-like concept that used a hypersonic glide vehicle, and one that can apparently deploy its own weapons as it races towards its target area, as was reportedly the case during the test. Even though the information provided by the Defense Department in the CMPR is limited, what is mentioned does reinforce some otherwise big statements made by top U.S. military officials about this weapon’s ability to execute these orbital strikes.
“On July 27, 2021, China conducted the first fractional orbital launch of an ICBM [intercontinental ballistic missile] with an HGV [hypersonic glide vehicle],” the CMPR revealed. “The HGV flew around the world and impacted inside China. This demonstrated the greatest distance flown (~40,000 km) and longest flight time (~100+ minutes) of any land-attack PRC [People’s Republic of China] weapons system to date. According to senior U.S. military officials, the HGV did not strike its target, but came close.”

The CMPR went on to add that the capability tested in 2021 was built upon previous Chinese hypersonic weapon development progress. The Pentagon believes that China is “probably” developing a number of advanced nuclear delivery systems, like the FOB system and the hypersonic glide vehicle both tested in 2021, due in part “to long-term concerns about United States missile defense capabilities as well as to attain qualitative parity with future worldwide missile capabilities.”
FOB systems date all the way back to the Cold War when the Soviets developed and deployed a limited number of them using an ICBM-like missile to put a more traditional re-entry vehicle containing a nuclear warhead into orbit. The warhead could then be de-orbited in a controlled manner to strike a target. As The War Zone discussed in this previous breakdown of the FOB concept, the depressed flight profile and capacity to strike really any target near its orbital path pose quite the challenge for an opponent's tracking and missile defense networks. The FOB system could attack from vectors that its opponent's radars are not looking toward, affecting its ability to anticipate where and when a strike may occur, let alone counter one.

An infographic depicting the flight path of a FOB system. Credit: Wikimedia Commons
China’s FOB-like system, though, instead carries a maneuverable hypersonic glide vehicle as opposed to a traditional nuclear-armed reentry vehicle, allowing it to change course dynamically and fly at lower altitudes, even porpoising as it goes, during its flight through the atmosphere. This allows it to hit targets much farther off its orbital flight path and makes interception nearly impossible. As noted earlier, reports that China’s hypersonic glide vehicle had also released its own projectile while on its very high-speed descent complicates things further, as The War Zone explained in detail in this past article.
The Financial Times, which was the first to report on the test, even emphasized how caught off-guard the Pentagon was by this development considering how technically complex it would be for anything moving at high hypersonic speeds to launch its own projectile. Knowing the technological breakthroughs that achieving this would require made it difficult to ascertain what exactly the hypersonic vehicle could have deployed, and the Pentagon’s CMPR, unfortunately, doesn’t seem to offer much else in this regard.

A comparison showing different profiles of missile types. This is for a hypersonic boost-glide vehicle, not a FOB-like concept, but the basics are the same. (GAO)
While the report was certainly helpful for gaining a more general understanding of where China stands in the global hypersonic race, the document also didn’t provide any additional detail in terms of any potential fielding timeline for the country's FOB-capable hypersonic glide vehicle. However, just because the system isn’t confirmed to be fielded yet doesn’t mean that China isn’t planning to, at least with the weapon in its current form. As the Pentagon noted in the CMPR, the July 2021 test “likely demonstrated the PRC’s technical ability to field a FOB system.”
The Pentagon throughout the CMPR cited the U.S. military’s own advancements in the hypersonic realm as the predominant driving factor behind China’s innovations while admitting that most of China’s missile systems are “comparable in quality to systems of other international top-tier producers.” An underlying fear that the proliferation of hypersonic technology could soon “blur the line between nuclear and conventional escalation” was also highlighted as a potential motivator behind these advancements. These influences are being reflected in other Chinese strategic developments, as well.

Regardless, it is important to note that U.S. missile defenses, as they exist now, aren't anywhere capable of deflecting a massive nuclear strike from a near-peer like China or Russia, which is something The War Zone has previously touched on. Defending against hypersonic weapons, especially ones that can attack from unpredictable vectors like this FOB-capable system would be able to, is an even more challenging proposition.
The DoD says a modified ICBM launched the FOB-like hypersonic glide vehicle weapon into space. Pictured here are DF-41s. (Global Times)
However, that isn't to say that progress in this area isn't being made. For example, the Missile Defense Agency is currently working on its plans to develop integrated fire control and sensor fusion networks to defend against hypersonic threats, and the Space Development Agency is three years away from launching the first of its satellite-based hypersonic missile tracking constellations. The multi-purpose SM-6 missile is also capable today of defense against some hypersonic weapons, but even then its capability is extremely limited and is likely only relevant in certain point-defense situations.

The Pentagon's further elaboration on China's FOB-capable nuclear-armed hypersonic glide vehicle is another sign of just how hot the hypersonic weapons race is becoming. While there is an incredible amount of disclosed hypersonic weapons development happening in the United States, there is a lot that remains classified, as well. Those efforts are only likely to grow, and with China clearly working to nullify America's missile defense capabilities, this is unlikely to be the last exotic long-range strike weapon we will see emerge out of China in the coming years.

 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Ankit Panda
@nktpnd

Despite being quoted here, I'm a bit surprised by the framing of this story. I also told the @WSJ
that the Hwasong-17 can range most of CONUS with multiple warheads and that North Korea has been testing the missile in ways that support this goal.
View: https://twitter.com/nktpnd/status/1599448896316399616?s=20&t=ErDhzueBGoIgujlyaNJskQ
Yeah, just like they were denying for years that they didn't have a working nuke....
 

jward

passin' thru

North Korea Has Reportedly Executed 3 High Schoolers for Distributing K-Dramas​


YeEun Kim




North Korea has reportedly executed three teenagers for distributing and watching K-dramas from South Korea.
As reported by outlets like Chosun Ilbo, three high school students were caught watching and importing TV shows from their neighboring country in early October. The act of consuming audiovisual content from South Korea is considered a crime as stated in a new law passed in December 2020. While underage individuals were not executed for disobeying the law previously, it seems the punishment is now applicable even to teenagers.

According to reports, the three male students were based in Hyesan, a city near the border between North Korea and China. They watched multiple episodes of South Korean and American TV shows, and were later caught circulating these materials with their peers.

Despite the harsh consequences, it's known that North Korean citizens still consume South Korean content. According to a survey conducted by the Unification Media Group, 96% of respondents noted that they have watched hit K-dramas such as Squid Game and Crash Landing on You.
This isn't the first time North Korea has executed its citizens for being exposed to content from South Korea. Last year, it was reported that seven individuals were killed for watching K-pop music videos, which Kim Jong-un describes to be a "vicious cancer." Meanwhile, in December 2021, the country banned laughing and drinking for 11 days in commemorating the 10th anniversary of Kim Jong-il's death.
 

jward

passin' thru
William Gallo
@GalloVOA

North Korea fired at least 130 artillery shells off its east and west coasts this afternoon, says @ROK_MND

South Korea says at least some of the shells landed in sensitive buffer zones, which is another violation of the 9/19 inter-Korean military agreement.

North Korea says its shelling this afternoon was a "tit for tat" response to South Korean military activity, says KCNA.
View: https://twitter.com/GalloVOA/status/1599716622373380096?s=20&t=P-fhTbj3oJP6whIPrNr_Lg
 

jward

passin' thru

North Korea fires more artillery shells into sea in response to South Korea drills -KCNA​

By Josh Smith
and Soo-Hyang Choi
SEOUL, Dec 6 (Reuters) - North Korea said on Tuesday it had ordered military units to fire more artillery shells into the sea, the North's official KCNA news agency reported, in response to South Korea's ongoing drills across the border.
The firing comes a day after North Korea said it fired more than 130 shells into the sea off its east and west coasts, some of which landed in a buffer zone near the sea border between the two Koreas. Seoul called that a violation of a 2018 inter-Korean agreement to reduce tensions.

South Korean and U.S. troops have been conducting live-fire drills near the border since Monday. The allies say the drills are necessary to deter nuclear-armed North Korea, which tested a record number of missiles this year and has made preparations to resume nuclear testing for the first time since 2017.

Register for free to Reuters and know the full story​

Pyongyang has sharply criticized the joint exercises as provocative and proof of hostile policies by Seoul and Washington.

Latest Updates​

"The enemy must immediately cease provocative military actions in the zone near the front lines," a spokesperson for the North Korean army said, according to KCNA.

In addition to the artillery fire, the North Korean army issued a combat emergency alert to units at all levels and troops were ordered to step up surveillance, the spokesperson said.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Hummm.....

Posted for fair use.....

North Korean riddle: what next after nuclear test?
Posted : 2022-12-05 17:00
Updated : 2022-12-05 17:00

By Kim Won-soo

North Korea is ramping up pressure through a series of missile tests and harsh verbal attacks against South Korea's top government officials. The intensity of North Korean provocations is well illustrated by a record number of missiles launched on one day ― over twenty ― as well as the unprecedented frequency of missile tests averaging more than once a week for the last three months. Most observers concur that the seventh nuclear test is imminent. It is simply a matter of when, not if.

Why is North Korea doing this? North Korea is experiencing arguably one of its toughest periods both internally and externally. It is facing the triple perils of regime failure, international sanctions and self-imposed COVID-19 restrictions. North Korea's saber-rattling could be a diversion intended for domestic audiences or a temper tantrum intended for external audiences. It could also be based on the North Korean leadership's conviction that nuclear weapons are the ultimate key to regime survival. This conviction has most likely been reinforced by what has befallen Ukraine after it had given up nuclear weapons in exchange for a written security guarantee that was later scrapped willfully by another party. This conviction was recently given legal footing, as a new law was adopted authorizing a preemptive nuclear strike against a wide range of perceived threats of attack.

Over the last seven decades since the Korean War, durable peace remains elusive on the Korean Peninsula. North Korea's 30-year-long pursuit of nuclear weapons has rendered the balance of power on the Korean Peninsula tenuous. Whether or not we get durable peace on the peninsula now depends on six horses ― two Koreas plus four major powers surrounding the peninsula, namely the United States, China, Japan and Russia ― pulling a loaded wagon.

The load on the wagon becomes heavier as the mutual distrust among the six horses intensifies with every failed attempt at a negotiated settlement. The wagon stands on two wheels known as peace and denuclearization. The six horses vary in size and differ in national interests. North Korea is the smallest of them, yet the wildest and most unpredictable. It also has the strongest desire to change the status quo. It is no longer interested in denuclearization. Rather, it wants to be recognized as a nuclear power and discuss arms control with the big boys.

But this is a non-starter not only for South Korea and the United States, but also for China and Russia. Such a move will be perceived by other horses as opening a Pandora's box because it will likely trigger South Korea, Japan and even Taiwan to go nuclear, heralding the beginning of the end of the U.S.-led nonproliferation regime.

In view of this dynamic, nothing positive will come out of Pyongyang's next nuclear test. The U.S. and South Korea will probably slap it with more and tougher sanctions. China and Russia will be hesitant to endorse such sanctions but will be unable to persuade Washington and Seoul to go easy. This means the North Korean economy and the livelihood of North Korean people will be further constrained.

Then what is the next step North Korea is likely to take? Pyongyang's intentions are always hard to read, even for North Korea's friends. North Korea is a three-level conundrum. Its socio-political system is dominated by the Communist Party whose decision-making process remains mostly opaque and at the mercy of one man. It is very much akin to what Winston Churchill famously said about the Soviet Union: "a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma." This old reference to Moscow aptly describes North Korea's behavior. It is an inscrutable and menacing player acting by its own rules. The key to understanding Pyongyang's intentions lies in the innermost layer of the North Korean matryoshka dolls: the top leadership. The answer to the riddle of North Korea is the survival of the innermost core, the top leader himself.

North Korea has no good options. It already crossed most of Washington's red lines, most notably the continued development of intercontinental ballistic missiles and nuclear warheads. Whether out of desperation or miscalculation, it may be tempted to take a much riskier path, like conventional military provocations and cyberattacks against critical infrastructure. Responding to such asymmetric attacks is extremely difficult because first, Pyongyang can deny involvement and second, it is not easy to identify appropriate retaliatory targets.

It requires careful thinking and advanced planning to alleviate these risks. South Korea must shake off the inertia and fatigue coming from protracted dealings with North Korean provocations. South Korea must think one step ahead and prepare for the worst, discreetly and together with allies and partners. Also, China should be warned so that it can restrain North Korea rather than embolden it by blocking the action in the event of another nuclear test.

South Korea must alert its citizens to the impending peril and try to build a consensus on how to augment deterrence. Deterrence and risk mitigation cannot be effective without a clear domestic consensus. If South Korea is seen as internally divided, it will be unable to take on the role of an anchor horse for the tough journey ahead toward a peaceful and denuclearized Korean Peninsula. A united South Korea is a prerequisite to any endeavor for diplomacy and deterrence.


Kim Won-soo (wsk4321@gmail.com) is the former under-secretary-general of the United Nations and high representative for disarmament. As a Korean diplomat, he served as secretary to the ROK president for foreign affairs as well as for international security. He is now the chair of the international advisory board of the Taejae Academy (Future Consensus Institute) and a chair professor at Kyung Hee University.
 

jward

passin' thru
Faytuks News Δ
@Faytuks
5h
North Korea says that South Korea fired multiple "rocket launchers and howitzers" in the vicinity of the front line today.

In response, "The DPRK General Staff issued combat emergency alerts to units at all levels, including frontline artillery units"
View: https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1600113259092115458?s=20&t=jb7d4LY96BTRFkL3Of8JFw

Latest statement from North Korea: Our military response to the continued provocative actions of the enemy will undoubtedly become more aggressive, different from yesterday and today and different from today and tomorrow.
View: https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1600114448630689792?s=20&t=jb7d4LY96BTRFkL3Of8JFw
 

jward

passin' thru

China may have surpassed US in number of nuclear warheads on ICBMs​


Bryant Harris​




WASHINGTON — The U.S. may no longer enjoy a numerical advantage against China in certain elements of its Intercontinental Ballistic Missile program, according to Strategic Command, which oversees the U.S. nuclear arsenal.
STRATCOM recently sent a classified determination to Congress pursuant to a clause in the fiscal 2022 National Defense Authorization Act, which requires congressional notification if China overtakes the U.S. in at least one of three components regarding its ICBM stockpile.
James Inhofe of Oklahoma, the top Republican on the Senate Armed Services Committee, pushed the Pentagon to declassify the determination as required under the law in a letter sent Monday to STRATCOM commander Admiral Charles Richard.

“We’ve only seen the tip of the iceberg when it comes to China’s growing military might,” Inhofe wrote on Twitter, where he publicized the letter. “The [Biden administration] must be open and honest with the American people about the threat Beijing poses to global order and our way of life.”
Mike Rogers of Alabama, the top Republican on the House Armed Services Committee, also signed onto the letter alongside the ranking members of the Strategic Forces panels in both chambers: Sen. Deb Fischer, R-Neb., and Rep. Doug Lamborn, R-Colo.
Under the law, STRATCOM must notify Congress if China deploys more ICBMs or ICBM launchers than the U.S. Data compiled by the Pentagon in its annual China report and a Congressional Research Service document indicate that the U.S. still maintains a numerical advantage versus China in its number of deployed ICBMs and ICBM launchers. This suggests that those two conditions did not trigger the STRATCOM notice.
The third component of the law triggers the notice if China has more nuclear warheads equipped on its ICBMs than the U.S.

Jeffrey Lewis, the director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Project at Middlebury College, told Defense News in an interview that the classified notification likely reveals that China has equipped more nuclear warheads on its ICBMs than the United States. Lewis sits on the State Department’s International Security Advisory Board but does not have access to the classified STRATCOM assessment.
“It must be warheads,” Lewis said. “The China military power report estimates that [Beijing’s] nuclear stockpile has surpassed 400.”

That report found that China will “likely field a stockpile of about 1,500 warheads by its 2035 timeline” if it continues at its current pace of nuclear expansion. The report also found that China has doubled its ICBM stockpile since 2020.
China now has 300 ICBMs and launchers. But that’s still less than the United States, which has 400 ICBMs and 450 ICBM launchers.
Lewis noted that China’s Dongfeng-41 missile can “carry multiple warheads, so 300 missiles could get you slightly over 400 warheads.” Meanwhile, all 400 U.S. Minuteman III missiles currently carry just one warhead per ICBM.
Lawmakers and their staff were unable to confirm to Defense News that the Chinese ratio of warheads to ICBMs triggered the notification given the classified nature of the determination.
“We are unable to provide additional clarity due to classification issues,” a congressional aide said on condition of anonymity to discuss the classified notification.

The aide added that the top Republican lawmakers who wrote to STRATCOM’s Richard “strongly encourage the administration to work through the associated classification issues to provide the statutorily directed unclassified notification and ensure the public is informed as possible regarding China’s expanding nuclear threat.”
Still, Lewis downplayed the fact that Beijing likely has a higher ratio of warheads per ICBM than Washington.
“It doesn’t matter because the U.S. could put multiple warheads on its land-based ICBMs, we just choose not to do that,” he said. “You really have to count the ICBMs and [submarine-launched ballistic missiles] together. And once you do that, our number is much higher than theirs. This is like an accounting gimmick.”

The U.S. had 1,389 warheads on a total of 665 deployed ICBMs, submarine-launched ballistic missiles and heavy bombers as of September 2021, according to the Congressional Research Service.
Henry Sokolski, the executive director of the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center, questioned whether the U.S. could maintain its vast numerical advantage against China’s nuclear arsenal if Beijing continues its current pace of nuclear modernization on top of contending with Russia’s arsenal.

“I don’t know how long it takes for our system to get another 1,500 warheads in place on our missiles,” said Sokolski. “It could take a while and cost an awful lot. If you’re going in that direction, is there any reason to believe the other side is going to just wait while we catch up? I don’t think so.”
Bryant Harris is the Congress reporter for Defense News. He has covered U.S. foreign policy, national security, international affairs and politics in Washington since 2014. He has also written for Foreign Policy, Al-Monitor, Al Jazeera English and IPS News.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment

China may have surpassed US in number of nuclear warheads on ICBMs​


Bryant Harris​




WASHINGTON — The U.S. may no longer enjoy a numerical advantage against China in certain elements of its Intercontinental Ballistic Missile program, according to Strategic Command, which oversees the U.S. nuclear arsenal.
STRATCOM recently sent a classified determination to Congress pursuant to a clause in the fiscal 2022 National Defense Authorization Act, which requires congressional notification if China overtakes the U.S. in at least one of three components regarding its ICBM stockpile.
James Inhofe of Oklahoma, the top Republican on the Senate Armed Services Committee, pushed the Pentagon to declassify the determination as required under the law in a letter sent Monday to STRATCOM commander Admiral Charles Richard.

“We’ve only seen the tip of the iceberg when it comes to China’s growing military might,” Inhofe wrote on Twitter, where he publicized the letter. “The [Biden administration] must be open and honest with the American people about the threat Beijing poses to global order and our way of life.”
Mike Rogers of Alabama, the top Republican on the House Armed Services Committee, also signed onto the letter alongside the ranking members of the Strategic Forces panels in both chambers: Sen. Deb Fischer, R-Neb., and Rep. Doug Lamborn, R-Colo.
Under the law, STRATCOM must notify Congress if China deploys more ICBMs or ICBM launchers than the U.S. Data compiled by the Pentagon in its annual China report and a Congressional Research Service document indicate that the U.S. still maintains a numerical advantage versus China in its number of deployed ICBMs and ICBM launchers. This suggests that those two conditions did not trigger the STRATCOM notice.
The third component of the law triggers the notice if China has more nuclear warheads equipped on its ICBMs than the U.S.

Jeffrey Lewis, the director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Project at Middlebury College, told Defense News in an interview that the classified notification likely reveals that China has equipped more nuclear warheads on its ICBMs than the United States. Lewis sits on the State Department’s International Security Advisory Board but does not have access to the classified STRATCOM assessment.
“It must be warheads,” Lewis said. “The China military power report estimates that [Beijing’s] nuclear stockpile has surpassed 400.”

That report found that China will “likely field a stockpile of about 1,500 warheads by its 2035 timeline” if it continues at its current pace of nuclear expansion. The report also found that China has doubled its ICBM stockpile since 2020.
China now has 300 ICBMs and launchers. But that’s still less than the United States, which has 400 ICBMs and 450 ICBM launchers.
Lewis noted that China’s Dongfeng-41 missile can “carry multiple warheads, so 300 missiles could get you slightly over 400 warheads.” Meanwhile, all 400 U.S. Minuteman III missiles currently carry just one warhead per ICBM.
Lawmakers and their staff were unable to confirm to Defense News that the Chinese ratio of warheads to ICBMs triggered the notification given the classified nature of the determination.
“We are unable to provide additional clarity due to classification issues,” a congressional aide said on condition of anonymity to discuss the classified notification.

The aide added that the top Republican lawmakers who wrote to STRATCOM’s Richard “strongly encourage the administration to work through the associated classification issues to provide the statutorily directed unclassified notification and ensure the public is informed as possible regarding China’s expanding nuclear threat.”
Still, Lewis downplayed the fact that Beijing likely has a higher ratio of warheads per ICBM than Washington.
“It doesn’t matter because the U.S. could put multiple warheads on its land-based ICBMs, we just choose not to do that,” he said. “You really have to count the ICBMs and [submarine-launched ballistic missiles] together. And once you do that, our number is much higher than theirs. This is like an accounting gimmick.”

The U.S. had 1,389 warheads on a total of 665 deployed ICBMs, submarine-launched ballistic missiles and heavy bombers as of September 2021, according to the Congressional Research Service.
Henry Sokolski, the executive director of the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center, questioned whether the U.S. could maintain its vast numerical advantage against China’s nuclear arsenal if Beijing continues its current pace of nuclear modernization on top of contending with Russia’s arsenal.

“I don’t know how long it takes for our system to get another 1,500 warheads in place on our missiles,” said Sokolski. “It could take a while and cost an awful lot. If you’re going in that direction, is there any reason to believe the other side is going to just wait while we catch up? I don’t think so.”
Bryant Harris is the Congress reporter for Defense News. He has covered U.S. foreign policy, national security, international affairs and politics in Washington since 2014. He has also written for Foreign Policy, Al-Monitor, Al Jazeera English and IPS News.
First part of "catching up" depends on to what degree the MIRV buses were altered or junked to "comply" with START to keep the Russians happy? Next is how many RVs and "physics packages" are in stock?
 

jward

passin' thru

Is North Korea Producing Munitions for Export to Russia?​


By Seulkee Jang for The Diplomat​



Asia Defense | Security | East Asia


A recent order called on factories to produce a variety of shells, including grenades, rockets, and anti-aircraft shells, while forgoing preparations for long-term storage.


North Korea issued an order to munition factories in late October to produce additional conventional artillery shells, Daily NK has learned.
Facing a new production order with the big end-of-year reviews approaching, munition factories are reportedly responding with bewilderment.

According to a Daily NK source in North Korea on Thursday, North Korea issued the order to produce additional conventional artillery shells to shell-producing munitions factories nationwide at the end of October.
Daily NK determined that leading shell and warhead producing factories such as Kanggye General Tractor Plant and the Changjagang Machine Tools Factory in Manpo received the order.
The order called on the factories to produce a variety of shells, including grenades, rockets, and anti-aircraft shells.
It is fairly unusual to issue a new production task ahead of the end-of-year review. The period from late October to December — when factories prepare for the end-of-year review — is typically a time for them to engage in last-minute production to hit their annual goals, not a time for new production tasks.

Moreover, the munitions factories ordered to make the additional munitions usually produce half-finished products. But this time, they were tasked with producing finished shells in just a month or two.
Because shells are not used in peacetime, factories produce them in a half-completed state so they can be stored for long periods of time. This time, however, they were ordered to quickly produce completed shells.
The final production process reportedly differs from the ordinary production process, too. Munitions are usually moisture-proofed after they are produced; this time, however, that process is being omitted.

Because of this, workers at the factories are reportedly saying that the shells “don’t look like they’ll be stored for long.”
In the course of its investigation into this story, Daily NK learned that munitions factories — facing labor shortages with the new order to expand production — are mobilizing new work personnel.
A munitions factory usually operates on three shifts, but the plants in question need more personnel to complete the latest task. They are responding by temporarily hiring people with past experience in munitions factories on a three-to-four month basis.

In a statement announced through state-run media on November 8, North Korea’s Defense Ministry denied rumors that it was exporting weapons to Russia. North Korea has never engaged in arms deals with Russia, said the ministry, and had no plans to do so in the future.
However, U.S. Defense Department spokesperson Patrick Ryder said in a briefing on November 8 that “the information we have is that the DPRK is covertly supplying Russia with a significant number of artillery shells,” and that Washington “will continue to monitor that situation.”
 

jward

passin' thru
Dennis Wilder
@dennisw5

We need to take seriously the prospect of nuclear proliferation in NE Asia. One good reason for China to rein in North Korea.

1670550701756.png
 

northern watch

TB Fanatic

Pentagon Withholds Critical Data on China’s Expanding Nuclear Arsenal, Republicans Say​

us-vice-president-joe-biden-visits-china_736x514.jpg

Joe Biden and Chinese president Xi Jinping

Adam Kredo
Free Beacon
December 7, 2022 4:45 pm

The Pentagon is withholding from Congress critical data on China’s rapidly expanding nuclear arsenal, which could outpace the United States' own supply of the deadly weapons, according to a group of Republican lawmakers.

Four Republicans from the House and Senate Armed Services Committee are asking the Pentagon comply with a statute that mandates it provide unclassified information about China’s military might, including data that could show it is on pace to exceed the United States' number of intercontinental missiles and nuclear warheads, according to a letter sent to the Pentagon. While a classified version of such data was provided, the Pentagon has yet to furnish the unclassified companion.

The letter comes on the heels of a Pentagon report that China could have around 1,500 nuclear warheads by 2035, a number that far exceeded past estimates. China already had around 400 nuclear warheads, a number that doubled in just two years, according to the Pentagon. This rapid expansion is fueling concerns in Congress about the Biden administration’s efforts to reduce America’s own stockpile of nuclear weapons amid escalating threats from the CCP.

"I’ve said it many times—we’ve only seen the tip of the iceberg when it comes to China’s growing military might," Sen. Jim Inhofe (R., Okla.), one of the letter’s signers, wrote on Twitter
. "The [Biden administration] must be open and honest with the American people about the threat Beijing poses to global order and our way of life."

The letter also was signed by Sen. Deb Fischer (R., Neb.), Rep. Mike Rogers (R., Ala.), and Rep. Doug Lamborn (R., Colo.).

The statute created by Congress requires the Pentagon to provide an "unclassified determination" about China’s nuclear warheads, its ballistic missiles, and ballistic missile launchers, according to the letter. If China surpasses the United States in just one category outlined above, the Pentagon must alert Congress in a classified and unclassified format. So far, the Pentagon has only done so in a classified forum.

The House Armed Services Committee’s Republican faction called out President Joe Biden on Twitter over the matter, saying the president must "wake up and properly invest in our defense."

"China has rapidly accelerated the expansion of its nuclear arsenal," the committee’s Republicans wrote on Twitter. "The CCP is developing new and more capable nuclear delivery platforms that can range all the United States. Now is the time for President Biden to wake up and properly invest in our defense."


 

northern watch

TB Fanatic

China Seen Using Radar Reflector Balloons To Defend Key Targets​

Story by Emma Helfrich
December 8 2022 3h ago
The Drive
1670557840298.png
China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) recently held joint defensive drills with local militia units that included deploying tethered balloons with radar reflectors attached to them as a means to protect critical infrastructure from aerial attack. While the technology is certainly far less sophisticated than many modern air defense system coming out of China or elsewhere, the balloons could still potentially offer a low-cost, easy-to-deploy, passive way to help defend critical targets against specific types of incoming attacks from long-range missiles and even drones.

China Seen Using Radar Reflector Balloons To Defend Key Targets
China Seen Using Radar Reflector Balloons To Defend Key Targets© Chinese state TV

China’s CCTV state television station publicized on the drills during a news segment that can be viewed here. Dubbed Zhejiang Golden Shield-22, the exercises were held on November 10 and predominately focused on testing various methods to protect critical infrastructure and deal with attacks. In the footage, PLA troops can also be seen blanketing oil storage tanks in camouflage covers. Energy infrastructure is often a high-priority target during times of war, as has been exemplified in the conflict in Ukraine, requiring enhanced protection.


China Seen Using Radar Reflector Balloons To Defend Key Targets
China Seen Using Radar Reflector Balloons To Defend Key Targets© Provided by The Drive

“The exercise focuses on the new threats and challenges brought by modern warfare to urban air defense,” read an article published by the Chinese news outlet Zhejiang News. “[The drills were designed] to explore new training methods and new ways to protect important petrochemical economic targets.”

In a brief clip during CCTV's segment, troops can be seen raising balloons with radar reflectors attached to them. These include rhombus and circular shaped ones. It isn't clear if the circular-shaped ones are capable of being deployed within the balloon's envelope as well, although doing so is not a totally unique concept.

Radar reflectors of this type are unsophisticated but effective metallic devices sometimes referred to as corner reflectors. They are highly reflective to radar waves and are, in this case, intended to mask the signature of an object to confuse radar sensors, especially those used by incoming radar-guided missiles or by aircraft that use radar for targeting weapons. They could even possibly interfere with long-range synthetic aperture radar-equipped surveillance aircraft and satellites, especially when viewing at shallow slant angles from far away.

It's possible that these balloons could also interfere with imaging infrared targeting systems that exist on some missile systems, namely cruise missile types. These systems are passive in nature, making the missiles that carry them harder to detect. They match imagery or 3D models of the target object against a database to positively identify it and make their highly precise end-game attack run. This is all done autonomously. The presence of the balloons could possibly confuse these systems, although that would likely depend on their level of capability.

Balloons seen during deployment near a target area. In the brief clip, they were seen gaining height which would elevate the radar reflectors attached to them. (video screencap)

Still, just how robust a shield they provide is highly questionable. China has invested heavily in understanding countermeasures to various radar-guided missiles — including radar reflectors — as of late though, so it's unlikely this is a futile tactic. Regardless, they could augment other kinetic and non-kinetic air defense systems that take a more active role on defending key target areas and/or be used where more capable air defense systems are not available to provide protection.

We have seen similar tactics deployed by Russia in Ukraine. Radar reflector countermeasures were installed at multiple locations during the conflict — especially around critical bridges. The Kerch Strait Bridge that connects Russia with Crimea even received radar reflector-covered decoy barges that were placed nearby. The odd thing about all this though is that Ukraine has no radar-guided weapons that are built for such targets. Even their Harpoon and Neptune anti-ship missiles would have to be used untraditionally against such targets. And even if they could strike them, their actual effect on heavy bridge structures may be relatively minimal. Whatever the case, the tactic goes back many years to the Soviet Days and clearly remains in the country's contingency playbook.

China Seen Using Radar Reflector Balloons To Defend Key Targets
China Seen Using Radar Reflector Balloons To Defend Key Targets© Provided by The Drive
A screenshot from the CCTV broadcast of the drills showing local militants filling one of the barrage balloons. Credit: CCTV screengrab

The balloons could also have a secondary, albeit limited countermeasure effect, one that is even more dated — as barrage balloons.

A barrage balloon can manifest in varying sizes and shapes, but all are meant to present hazards to low-flying aircraft. Multiple barrage balloons can also be deployed at once, tethered to each other and the ground by a net of cables, which can pose a detrimental collision risk for approaching aircraft. Overall, they make it more challenging for enemy aircraft to operate at low levels. While this is not really relevant for most modern combat aircraft — that is why the barrage balloon disappeared from service — it is potentially relevant to low flying drones.

Barrage balloons made their first appearance in World War I made of tightly woven fabric that took the shape of a sphere or a blimp. Also called a kite balloon, the device was then partly filled with hydrogen, which could make for an impressive and dangerous fireball if combat planes destroyed one. During World War II, however, barrage balloons made from vulcanized rubber and Thiokol rubber became more common. In some cases, the netting or cabling tied between them made them deadly for dive bombers and strafing aircraft even if they successfully avoided the balloon itself. As a result, the aircraft was forced to fly higher, decreasing their accuracy significantly and driving them into dense air defenses.

China Seen Using Radar Reflector Balloons To Defend Key Targets
China Seen Using Radar Reflector Balloons To Defend Key Targets© Provided by The Drive
A row of spherical barrage balloons used for suspending aerial nets. Credit: Australian War Memorial/Wikimedia Commons

China Seen Using Radar Reflector Balloons To Defend Key Targets
China Seen Using Radar Reflector Balloons To Defend Key Targets© Provided by The Drive

After WWII, however, barrage balloons quickly stopped being used on a grand scale by major militaries as advances in air combat made them far less relevant than they once were. But, the threat landscape is changing and so to are the means with which to address it.

Barrage balloons over London during World War II. Buckingham Palace and the Victoria Memorial can be seen in the middle ground. Credit: Unknown author/Wikimedia Commons Another example of a WWII-era barrage balloon, this time with its steel cord netting in clear view. Credit: Palmer, Alfred T./Wikimedia Commons

China Seen Using Radar Reflector Balloons To Defend Key Targets
China Seen Using Radar Reflector Balloons To Defend Key Targets© Provided by The Drive

Drones, specifically long-range 'kamikaze' types that reach their targets on autopilot, are a major threat to critical infrastructure and can be employed en-masse and over great ranges, something The War Zone has long warned of. The tone as to the threat presented by lower-end unmanned systems has since shifted and the discussion has changed to just how pivotal these kinds of weaponized drones will be in future high-end wars. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has only emphasized that reality.

China Seen Using Radar Reflector Balloons To Defend Key Targets
China Seen Using Radar Reflector Balloons To Defend Key Targets© Provided by The Drive

While barrage balloons in their heyday were certainly effective enough to deter WWI and WWII pilots, the emergence of loitering munitions, like that of Taiwan’s locally developed Chien Hsiang drone, was still far away from becoming a reality. Although, another autonomous aerial menace did exist, one that barrage balloons were notably successful in defeating, which could lend credence to their potential employment against modern-day drones.

Taiwan's Chien Hsiang loitering munition on display at the 2019 Taipei Aerospace & Defense Technology Exhibition. Credit: Kenchen945/Wikimedia Commons

The V-1 flying bomb was an early jet-propelled cruise missile design used by the German Luftwaffe predominately against London during WWII. Nicknamed buzz bombs or doodlebugs by the Allies, the V-1 missile was not radio-controlled and instead flew to its intended target with the help of a basic autopilot capability that used a gyroscopic guidance system and a magnetic compass to control the munition's positioning while in flight. Once the V-1 neared its target, it would dive down toward it in a manner similar to today's loitering munitions. In many ways, the long-range kamikaze drones of today are successors of the V-1, as are cruise missiles in a different regard.

China Seen Using Radar Reflector Balloons To Defend Key Targets
China Seen Using Radar Reflector Balloons To Defend Key Targets© Provided by The Drive

Out of the thousands of V-1 missiles that were destroyed by various fighter aircraft and other air defense systems throughout WWII, the barrage balloons deployed over London were responsible for the neutralization of approximately 231 of these flying bombs.

Today, at the very least, they could introduce another defensive variable for low-flying drones and cruise missiles, which lack dynamic sense and avoid capabilities, to overcome. This would also have some level of deterrent value, depending on the systems available to employ against the target and their capabilities.

Whether or not these radar reflector-toting balloons are a common component of China's air defense strategy is unclear. But the re-emergence of the balloon to defend aerial attacks is nonetheless a curious and intriguing development.

Contact the author: Emma@thewarzone.com and Tyler@thedrive.com

 
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jward

passin' thru

Japan, UK, Italy to develop next-generation fighter jet - Insider Paper​





Japan, Britain and Italy said Friday they will jointly develop a next-generation fighter jet in a project that holds scope for future cooperation with allies including the United States.
The new jet, to be ready by 2035, is expected to merge the nations’ current research into cutting-edge air combat technology, from stealth capacity to high-tech sensors.

In a joint statement, the three countries said the “ambitious endeavour” would “accelerate our advanced military capability and technological advantage” at a time when “threats and aggression are increasing” worldwide.
Their announcement was accompanied by a set of images showing an artist’s impression of the sleek new jets flying past Mount Fuji and over London and Rome.
They did not give a cost estimate, but the three countries are already pouring billions of dollars into fighter jet development, efforts that will come together under the joint project, called the Global Combat Air Programme.
“We share (an) ambition for this aircraft to be the centrepiece of a wider combat air system that will function across multiple domains,” the statement said.
That includes “future interoperability with the United States, with NATO and with our partners” in Europe, Asia and worldwide, it explained.

The US Department of Defence said it supported the project in a separate joint statement with Japan’s defence ministry.
“We have begun important collaboration through a series of discussions on autonomous systems capabilities, which could complement Japan’s next fighter program among other platforms,” the US-Japan statement said.
Britain had already been working with Italy on a future fighter jet project called Tempest, launched to great fanfare in 2018.
The objective was to develop by 2035 a twin-engined stealth aircraft that could be operated manned or unmanned, could not be detected by radar, and would boast features such as laser-directed weapons and a virtual cockpit.

– Pressure from China –​

Japan’s prior project to build a next-generation fighter plane, named F-X, was reportedly expected to cost more than five trillion yen (around $40 billion).
Friday’s announcement comes with Tokyo poised to make the largest overhaul to its security strategy in decades.
The government plans to ramp up defence spending — a controversial move in a nation whose constitution limits military capacity to ostensibly self-protective measures.
But the war in Ukraine, repeated missile launches from North Korea and growing pressure from China have helped build support for a bigger budget.
Japan’s Nikkei business daily said that companies Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, BAE Systems and Leonardo would oversee the new project, which is Tokyo’s second joint development after its SM-3 missile made with Washington.
The Global Combat Air Programme is the latest high-profile example of allied countries collaborating on an ad-hoc basis to develop defence equipment.

Such moves proved controversial last year when the United States snatched a lucrative contract to supply Australia with submarines from France and launched a new US-UK-Australia alliance in the Pacific, dubbed AUKUS.
Later Friday, Australia’s defence and foreign ministers are due to meet their Japanese counterparts in Tokyo for security talks.
After a meeting between US and Australian ministers this week in Washington, the two countries said they would welcome Japanese troops into three-way rotations, vowing a united front in the face of China’s rapid military advances.
Japan, UK, Italy to develop next-generation fighter jet - Insider Paper
 

jward

passin' thru

Chinese Fighter Accused of Intercepting, Releasing Debris Into Australian P-8’s Engines - FLYING Magazine​


Kimberly Johnson​



A Chinese fighter jeopardized crew safety of a Royal Australian Air Force P-8 Poseidon aircraft late last month when it intercepted the airplane and released debris into its engines while it conducted a routine surveillance flight over the South China Sea, according to Australian defense officials.
News of the incident sparked sharp words and accusations from defense officials in both countries, and comes close on the heels of a separate incident involving Chinese and Canadian military aircraft.
During the May 26 incident, a Chinese J-16 fighter flew in front of the Australian P-8 and released a “bundle of chaff,” Australia’s Defense Minister Richard Marles said, per a Reuters report. The chaff, which is used as a radar countermeasure, included strips of aluminum and was sucked into the engine.
“The intercept resulted in a dangerous maneuver, which posed a safety threat to the P-8 aircraft and its crew,” Australia’s Department of Defense said in a statement released Sunday. “Defense has for decades undertaken maritime surveillance activities in the region and does so in accordance with international law, exercising the right to freedom of navigation and overflight in international waters and airspace.”

Marles said the J-16 “cut across the nose of the P-8, settling in front of the P-8 at very close distance.”
China fired back at the accusation, claiming the Australian aircraft ignored repeated warnings as it was flying near the disputed Paracel Islands, China’s defense ministry spokesman, Tan Kefei said, The Guardian reported.
“The Australian military plane seriously threatened China’s sovereignty and security, and the measures taken by the Chinese military were professional, safe, reasonable, and legal,” Tan said.
On Monday, Canada’s prime minister, Justin Trudeau, said Chinese military aircraft nearly hit Canadian aircraft deployed in Japan as part of a United Nations effort enforcing sanctions against North Korea. “China’s actions are irresponsible and provocative in this case, and we will continue to register strongly that they are putting people at risk,” he said at a press conference.

According to Canadian defense officials, Royal Canadian Air Force (RCAF) aircraft were forced to abruptly change their flight paths because of the aircraft interception, and this represents a concern that is increasing in frequency.
“In these interactions, [People’s Liberation Army Air Force] aircraft did not adhere to international air safety norms,” Canadian Armed Forces said in a statement. “These interactions are unprofessional and/or put the safety of our RCAF personnel at risk. In some instances, the RCAF aircrew felt sufficiently at risk that they had to quickly modify their own flight path in order to increase separation and avoid a potential collision with the intercepting aircraft.”
Chinese officials responded by accusing Canada of “spreading disinformation” and conducting “enemy reconnaissance of China,” The Guardian reported.

Coz that area was too calm :rolleyes:
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment

Chinese Fighter Accused of Intercepting, Releasing Debris Into Australian P-8’s Engines - FLYING Magazine​


Kimberly Johnson​



A Chinese fighter jeopardized crew safety of a Royal Australian Air Force P-8 Poseidon aircraft late last month when it intercepted the airplane and released debris into its engines while it conducted a routine surveillance flight over the South China Sea, according to Australian defense officials.
News of the incident sparked sharp words and accusations from defense officials in both countries, and comes close on the heels of a separate incident involving Chinese and Canadian military aircraft.
During the May 26 incident, a Chinese J-16 fighter flew in front of the Australian P-8 and released a “bundle of chaff,” Australia’s Defense Minister Richard Marles said, per a Reuters report. The chaff, which is used as a radar countermeasure, included strips of aluminum and was sucked into the engine.
“The intercept resulted in a dangerous maneuver, which posed a safety threat to the P-8 aircraft and its crew,” Australia’s Department of Defense said in a statement released Sunday. “Defense has for decades undertaken maritime surveillance activities in the region and does so in accordance with international law, exercising the right to freedom of navigation and overflight in international waters and airspace.”

Marles said the J-16 “cut across the nose of the P-8, settling in front of the P-8 at very close distance.”
China fired back at the accusation, claiming the Australian aircraft ignored repeated warnings as it was flying near the disputed Paracel Islands, China’s defense ministry spokesman, Tan Kefei said, The Guardian reported.
“The Australian military plane seriously threatened China’s sovereignty and security, and the measures taken by the Chinese military were professional, safe, reasonable, and legal,” Tan said.
On Monday, Canada’s prime minister, Justin Trudeau, said Chinese military aircraft nearly hit Canadian aircraft deployed in Japan as part of a United Nations effort enforcing sanctions against North Korea. “China’s actions are irresponsible and provocative in this case, and we will continue to register strongly that they are putting people at risk,” he said at a press conference.

According to Canadian defense officials, Royal Canadian Air Force (RCAF) aircraft were forced to abruptly change their flight paths because of the aircraft interception, and this represents a concern that is increasing in frequency.
“In these interactions, [People’s Liberation Army Air Force] aircraft did not adhere to international air safety norms,” Canadian Armed Forces said in a statement. “These interactions are unprofessional and/or put the safety of our RCAF personnel at risk. In some instances, the RCAF aircrew felt sufficiently at risk that they had to quickly modify their own flight path in order to increase separation and avoid a potential collision with the intercepting aircraft.”
Chinese officials responded by accusing Canada of “spreading disinformation” and conducting “enemy reconnaissance of China,” The Guardian reported.

Coz that area was too calm :rolleyes:

They need to start arming these planes with at least AIM-9s like the RAF did with their Nimrods during the Falklands War. Then perhaps some of this crap by the PLAAF might stop.
 

jward

passin' thru

China preparing fresh pretext to practise future attacks, says Taiwan foreign minister​


Helen Davidson​


Taiwan’s government believes China is preparing to find another “pretext for practising their future attack” on the island, its foreign minister has said, after a record-breaking year of military threats and incursions.
Joseph Wu also suggested cross-strait communications may diminish even further now that Xi Jinping has secured his third term, with last month’s extraordinary political purges of rival Communist party members severing the few unofficial ties remaining.
In an exclusive interview with the Guardian in Taipei, Wu said the Chinese military threat was “getting more serious than ever”, with a five-fold increase in warplane incursions into Taiwan’s defence zone since 2020.
The most serious bout of Chinese military activity was August’s live-fire exercises, staged after US speaker of the house, Nancy Pelosi, visited Taiwan. Chinese officials said the exercises, which included missile launches, were a run-through of blockade tactics they would one day use against Taiwan for real. Analysts noted the scale of the exercises suggested they had likely been long-planned, and the Pelosi visit simply provided the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) with a political pretext.
“And we are quite sure that the Chinese may want to use another pretext of practising their future attacks against Taiwan. So this is a military threat against Taiwan,” said Wu.
The minister said it was not just China’s military efforts that were ramping up, but a “combination of pressures”, including economic coercion, cyber-attacks, cognitive and legal warfare, and diplomatic efforts to have Taiwan isolated internationally.
Taiwan Foreign Minister Joseph Wu

Taiwan foreign minister Joseph Wu has said the threat from China was ‘getting more serious than ever’. Photograph: Ritchie B Tongo/EPA
With the increasing numbers of military incursions into Taiwan’s air defence zone – from 380 Chinese warplanesin 2020 to more than 1,500 already this year – there is a growing risk of accidents which could lead to escalations. Such incidents in the past have been deescalated through cross strait communications, but after Taiwan’s current president Tsai Ing-wen was elected in 2016, Beijing severed official ties.

Wu said Taiwan had previously maintained some lines of communication via Taiwanese businesspeople and academics who had “good connections with the Chinese side”.

But since Xi was reappointed for a third term at the 20th Party Congress there has been a major purge of the party ranks and those doors have been closing, said Wu.

“It is because the Chinese government system has become so authoritarian. It’s not like the old days when regular academia could write recommendations to the central government and are able to get in touch with the key decision-makers and tell us what is the thinking of the top leaders, things like that,” he said.

“In these couple of years, we are seeing that Chinese academia are afraid of saying different things other than Chinese propaganda. And they told us in a very frank way that they are not connected to the central government any more, or even if they are able to connect with government bureaucracies, those bureaucracies don’t seem to have the trust of the top leader any more.

“He is the paramount leader and there’s no one else challenging him right now.”

In response to the growing threat of invasion by China, Taiwan’s government has spent the last few years courting international support among “like minded democracies”.

TV’s in China show China conducting live fire drills.

China conducted live-fire drills around Taiwan after US speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taipei in August. Photograph: Annabelle Chih/Getty Images
Wu said the drills conducted after Pelosi’s visit were also aimed at scaring off other governments which might support Taiwan – symbolically now, or militarily later. The furore over Pelosi’s visit prompted some debate about whether it had in fact escalated tensions, despite Taiwan’s insistence she had been gratefully received.

“If China can do that to Speaker Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, I think that is going to cause concern in other countries [about] whether their support for Taiwan is going to actually damage Taiwan’s national interest rather than providing real support to Taiwan,” he said.

Beijing has repeatedly responded with anger towards any act that appears to support Taiwan, including weaponising bilateral trade, as it did with Lithuania when it opened mutual representative offices with Taipei. It has also pressured some countries to switch their recognition from Taipei entirely, leaving just 14 in the world that do.

However, Beijing’s increasingly aggressive and expansionist behaviour in the region appears so far to have only isolated it further, and emboldened more vocal support of Taiwan.

“I think the international community seems to be coping with it,” Wu said of China’s retaliatory actions.

With pandemic restrictions lifted, Taiwan has seen a marked increase in the number of visiting foreign delegations. Several US groups have visited, and a UK parliamentary delegation met Tsai last week, prompting rebuke from Beijing.

China remains an important partner to many western nations, and governments are walking a tightrope. This week’s cautious tour by an Australian parliamentary delegation occurred at the same time as Canberra is seeking to repair its relationship with Beijing.

Wu acknowledged Australia was facing a “balancing act”.

“But we don’t question the support of the Australian government, the Australian parliament, and Australian people for Taiwan,” he said.
 

jward

passin' thru
North Korea ready to test nuclear weapon, South Korean PM warns
Snejana Farberov
~4 minutes

North Korea is “ready” to test a nuclear weapon, and will likely do so, according to a chilling prediction from South Korean Prime Minister Han Duck-soo.

In an interview with Sky News, Han said though it’s “hard to know exactly when” the test will take place, “we gather that they are prepared.”

The grim assessment comes near the end of year in which Pyongyang fired a record number of missiles — including an intercontinental ballistic missile with a range to strike the entire mainland US.

Washington swiftly condemned the November launch of the ICBM — overseen by North Korea leader Kim Jong Un — and vowed to take “all necessary measures” to guarantee the safety of its territory and its allies South Korea and Japan.

Tensions in the region have been high in recent months, with North Korea firing dozens of missiles in retaliation for the large-scale joint military drills between the US and South Korea, which Pyongyang viewed as escalatory.
A launching of a North Korea ballistic missile is pictured
North Korea has fired dozens of ballistic missiles this year, including an intercontinental ballistic missile capable to striking the entire mainland US.
AP
pictured is South Korean Prime Minister Han Duck-soo
Prime Minister Han Duck-soo said South Koreais prepared, should Pyongyang test a nuclear weapon.
REUTERS

Should North Korea conduct a nuclear weapon test, it will be the first since 2017 when the testing program was suspended.

“We always have preparations for that kind of very undesirable action,” said Han. “We cannot say at this moment what kind of response will be made, but clearly we would like to have some kind of extended deterrence capabilities, including all kind of options.”

During a meeting in Indonesia Tuesday, Seoul’s envoy for North Korea said South Korea, Japan and the US will coordinate sanctions against the rogue nation as it is “becoming more aggressive and blatant in its nuclear threat.”

“North Korea’s further provocation will be met by a firm and united response from the international community,” said Kim Gunn, South Korea’s special representative for Korean Peninsula Peace and Security Affairs.
Kim Jong Un is pictured with his young daughter while watching the test-firing of the new intercontinental ballistic missile on Nov. 27
Kim Jong-un (front R), showed off his 9-year-old daughter (front L) during the test-firing of an ICBM on Nov. 27.
KCNA VIA KNS/AFP via Getty Image

Decades of US-led sanctions have failed to halt the isolated nation’s increasingly sophisticated missile and nuclear weapon programs.

No new sanctions have been imposed on North Korea this year as it carried out more than 60 ballistic missile launches banned by UN Security Council resolutions.

China and Russia, two of the Security Council’s veto-wielding members, have blocked recent efforts to introduce more UN sanctions

Sung Kim, US special representative for North Korea, said at Tuesday’s meeting in Jakarta the behavior of Pyongyang presented one of the most serious security challenges to the region and beyond.
Kim and his daughter are pictured walking near an ICBM
Kim’s regime has fired a record number of missiles this year in retaliation for US-South Korea military drills.
AP

“[North Korea] presents challenges that can only be successfully addressed when the international community stands together and speaks with a unified voice,” said Kim,

South Korean leadership has made it clear it expects China to play a key role in fostering dialogue with North Korea.

Han told Sky News his goverment will “secure our peace on our terms, not on terms dictated by North Korea.”

 

jward

passin' thru

N. Korea claims successful test of 'high-thrust solid-fuel motor' at satellite launching site | Yonhap News Agency​


이원주


SEOUL, Dec. 16 (Yonhap) -- North Korea has successfully conducted a test to verify the "high-thrust solid-fuel motor" features in developing another "new-type of strategic weapon system," its state media said Friday.

"An important institute under the Academy of Defence Science succeeded in the static firing test of high-thrust solid-fuel motor with a thrust of 140tf, the first of its kind in the country, at the Sohae Satellite Launching Ground on the morning of Dec. 15.," the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) said in an English-language report.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un guided the test, expressing the expectation that "another new-type of strategic weapon would be made in the shortest span of time," it added.
The KCNA said the aim of the test was to "verify all technical specific features of the high-thrust solid-fuel motor based on the thrust vector controlling technology."


Global: Military-Info
@Global_Mil_Info
6h

North Korea has successfully tested a "high-thrust solid-fuel motor" - it was tested at Sohae Satellite Launch Complex. Per NK leader, Kim Jong-un, another new-type of strategic weapon will be built in the shortest period (soon).
View: https://twitter.com/EndGameWW3/status/1603516950012895243?s=20&t=u8Du5TYkiLzgDu5lEBPCQg
 

jward

passin' thru

Japan to vow to obtain enemy base strike capability amid threats​


KYODO NEWS


Japan is set Friday to decide to possess the capability of striking enemy bases, as well as double its defense costs, in a drastic shift from its postwar security policy under its war-renouncing Constitution.
With the security environment surrounding Japan becoming unstable in the face of threats from China and North Korea, Tokyo, which has abandoned warfare for the past 77 years, would be able to directly attack another country's territory in case of an emergency.
Obtaining the ability to deter attacks from outside forces, called "counterstrike capability," is likely to be stipulated in the government's three key defense documents, including the National Security Strategy, which is scheduled to be updated by Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's Cabinet later in the day.
Critics note that the Constitution only allows Japan to act under self-defense, but the NSS is expected to say the nation needs to have the ability to "make effective counterstrikes in the opponent's territory as a bare minimum self-defense measure."

The NSS is set to mention that Japan is facing its "most severe and complicated security environment" since World War II, while the government has pledged to maintain its commitment to the "exclusively self-defense-oriented policy" and "not to become a military power."
In its first revision since 2013, the long-term security policy guidelines are likely to say that missile defense alone is insufficient to deal with the "significant reinforcement of missile forces" of countries such as China and North Korea.
To fundamentally beef up its defense capacity, the nation is certain to set a target of boosting its annual defense budget to 2 percent of its gross domestic product in fiscal 2027, which will end in March 2028.
Japan has long capped its annual defense budget at around 1 percent of its GDP, or a little more than 5 trillion yen ($36 billion).

Kishida has said the government will raise additional funds by cutting other expenditures and increasing tax, among other means, while some lawmakers from his ruling Liberal Democratic Party have argued that national debt should be newly issued.
The initial defense budget for fiscal 2023 is expected to reach a record of about 6.5 trillion yen, compared with 5.2 trillion yen for the current fiscal 2022. Both exclude spending on the realignment of U.S. Forces in Japan.
If realignment-related spending is included, the fiscal 2023 budget would be around 6.8 trillion yen, according to a government source.

Under the new defense buildup program, around 43 trillion yen will be allocated to the defense budgets for five years from fiscal 2023, jumping up from 27.5 trillion yen under the existing plan for the five years from fiscal 2019.
Out of the 43 trillion yen, some 5 trillion yen will be used to acquire "standoff missiles," which are capable of being launched from beyond the range of enemy fire by extending the range of Self-Defense Forces' surface-to-ship guided missiles, as well as procuring U.S.-made Tomahawk cruise missiles with a range of about 1,600 kilometers.
It could launch a counterstrike under three conditions -- if Japan is attacked or an attack on a friendly nation threatens Japan's survival, there are no appropriate means to repel an attack and any use of force should be kept to a minimum.
Regarding the timing of when an opponent's attack is deemed to have started, the government would "judge given specific and individual conditions," according to a source familiar with the matter.

The LDP initially employed the words "enemy base strike capability" but stopped using the phrase after its junior coalition partner Komeito raised fears that it could imply the right to pre-emptive attacks.
Japan has long maintained that such capabilities are permissible at the bare minimum as a self-defense measure under its pacifist Constitution.
But the government had refrained from acquiring it as a political judgment or had seen no need to do so under the 1960 security treaty with the United States, as Washington has served as an offensive "spear" and Tokyo as a defensive "shield."

Following Japan's acquisition of its counterstrike capability, the two countries would "collectively respond" to an armed attack, although its basic role-sharing would remain unchanged, a draft of the NSS said.
Regarding Japan's current perception of Chinese military moves, the policy guidelines would say they are posing "the greatest strategic challenge" ever, similar to an expression in the U.S. NSS released in October.
Japan's 2013 NSS said China's military assertiveness is "an issue of concern to the international community."
The draft also described moves by North Korea as a "graver and more imminent threat than before" and those by Russia as a "serious security concern" due to its "strategic collaboration with China," as well as its invasion of Ukraine.
Japan's government, meanwhile, is expected to consider reviewing its strict guidelines regarding exporting defense equipment.

Other goals in the documents include strengthening the nation's cyber defense, enhancing economic security and boosting cooperation between the SDF and the Japan Coast Guard.
 

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5 minute read
December 16,
2022
2:40 PM
Updated 7 hours ago

Pacifist Japan unveils biggest military build-up since World War Two​

By Tim Kelly
and Sakura Murakami

TOKYO, Dec 16 (Reuters) - Japan on Friday unveiled its biggest military build-up since World War Two with a $320 billion plan that will buy missiles capable of striking China and ready it for sustained conflict, as regional tensions and Russia's Ukraine invasion stoke war fears.
The sweeping, five-year plan, once unthinkable in pacifist Japan, will make the country the world's third-biggest military spender after the United States and China, based on current budgets.

Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, who described Japan and its people as being at a "turning point in history", said the ramp-up was "my answer to the various security challenges that we face".

His government worries that Russia has set a precedent that will encourage China to attack Taiwan, threatening nearby Japanese islands, disrupting supplies of advanced semiconductors and putting a potential stranglehold on sea lanes that supply Middle East oil.

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"This is setting a new heading for Japan. If appropriately executed, the Self-Defense Forces will be a real, world-class effective force," said Yoji Koda, a former Maritime Self Defense Force admiral, who commanded the Japanese fleet in 2008.

The government said it would also stockpile spare parts and other munitions, expand transport capacity and develop cyber warfare capabilities. In its postwar, American-authored constitution, Japan gave up the right to wage war and means to do so.


"Russia's invasion of Ukraine is a serious violation of laws that forbid the use of force and has shaken the foundations of the international order," the strategy paper said.

"The strategic challenge posed by China is the biggest Japan has ever faced," it added, also noting that Beijing had not ruled out using force to bring Taiwan under its control.

A separate national security strategy document that pointed to China, Russia and North Korea, promised close cooperation with the United States and other like-minded nations to deter threats to the established international order.

"The Prime Minister is making a clear, unambiguous strategic statement about Japan’s role as a security provider in the Indo-Pacific," U.S. Ambassador to Japan Rahm Emanuel said in a statement. "He has put a capital “D” next to Japan’s deterrence," he added.

Meeting Japan-Taiwan Exchange Association Chairman Mitsuo Ohashi in Taipei on Friday, Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen said she expected greater defence cooperation with Japan.

"We look forward to Taiwan and Japan continuing to create new cooperation achievements in various fields such as national defence and security, the economy, trade, and industrial transformation,” the presidential office cited Tsai as saying.

China accused Japan of making false claims about China's military activities in the new security strategy, according to a statement from its embassy in Japan.

UKRAINE LESSON​

"The Ukraine war has shown us the necessity of being able to sustain a fight, and that is something Japan has not so far been prepared for," said Toshimichi Nagaiwa, a retired Air Self-Defense Force general. "Japan is making a late start, it is like we are 200 metres behind in a 400-metre sprint," he added.

China defence spending overtook Japan's at the turn of the century, and now has a military budget more than four times larger. Too few munitions and a lack of spare parts that ground planes and put other military equipment out of action are the most immediate problems for Japan to tackle, military sources have told Reuters.

Kishida's plan will double defence outlays to about 2% of gross domestic product over five years, blowing past a self-imposed 1% spending limit that has been in place since 1976.

It will increase the defence ministry's budget to around a tenth of all public spending at current levels, and will make Japan the world's third-biggest military spender after the United States and China, based on current budgets.

That splurge will provide work to Japanese military equipment makers such as Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI) (7011.T), which is expected to lead development of three of the longer-range missiles that will be part of Japan's new missile force.

MHI will also build Japan's next jet fighter alongside BAE Systems PLC (BAES.L) and Leonardo SPA (LDOF.MI) in a joint project between Japan, Britain and Italy announced last week.

Tokyo allocated $5.6 billion for that in the five-year defence programme.

Foreign companies will also benefit. Japan says it wants ship-launched U.S. Tomahawk cruise missiles made by Raytheon Technologies (RTX.N) to be part of its new deterrent force.

Other items on Japan's military shopping list over the next five years include interceptor missiles for ballistic missile defence, attack and reconnaissance drones, satellite communications equipment, Lockheed Martin F-35 stealth fighters, helicopters, submarines, warships and heavy-lift transport jets.

To pay for that equipment, Kishida's ruling bloc earlier on Friday said it would raise tobacco, corporate and disaster-reconstruction income taxes. But, with opposition to tax hikes within his ruling Liberal Democratic party still strong, the Japanese leader has yet to say when he will implement those higher rates.
 

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North Korea fires two ballistic missiles: Seoul's military - International - World​




People watch a TV screen showing a news program about North Korea s missile launch with file footage, at the Seoul Railway Station in Seoul, South Korea, Sunday, Dec. 18, 2022.. (Shin Jun-hee/Yonhap via AP)
Military tensions on the Korean peninsula have risen sharply this year as Pyongyang has carried out an unprecedented blitz of weapons tests, including the launch of its most advanced intercontinental ballistic missile ever last month.
South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff said it detected two medium-range ballistic missiles that had been fired from the Tongchang-ri area in North Pyongan province.
The missiles were fired from 11:13 am (0213 GMT) to 12:05 pm into the East Sea, it said, referring to the body of water also known as the Sea of Japan.

They were fired on a "lofted" trajectory and flew around 500 kilometres (311 miles), JCS said in a statement, adding South Korean and US intelligence were analysing the launch "in consideration of recent trends related to North Korea's missile development".
Tongchang-ri is home to a major rocket launch site, where the North tested a "high-thrust solid-fuel motor" on Thursday, with state media describing it as an important test "for the development of another new-type strategic weapon system".
The South's military "strongly" condemned Sunday's launch, calling it a "serious provocation" and a "clear violation" of UN Security Council resolutions.
"Our military will maintain a firm readiness posture based on the ability to carry out an overwhelming response to any provocations by North Korea," it added.

Kim's wishlist
Despite heavy international sanctions over its weapons programmes, Pyongyang has built up an arsenal of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs).
All its known ICBMs are liquid-fuelled, however, and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has placed strategic priority on developing solid-fuel engines for more advanced missiles.
Liquid-fuel rockets are notoriously difficult to operate and take a long time to prepare for launch, making them slower and easier for the enemy to spot and destroy.
The more mobile solid-fuel missiles have a much shorter prep time, and are harder to detect before launch.
A wishlist Kim revealed last year included solid-fuel ICBMs that could be launched from land or submarines.
The latest motor test was a step towards that goal, but it is not clear how far North Korea has come in the development of such a missile, analysts said.

Key party meeting
The isolated country's policy direction for next year will be laid out at a key party meeting later this month, and the official Korean Central News Agency earlier reported Kim saying that 2023 would be a "historic year".
In past years, Kim had delivered a speech every January 1, but he recently dropped the tradition in favour of making announcements at the year-end plenary meeting.
In his most recent address to the meeting, which was released to the public last New Year's Day, Kim focused on domestic affairs.
Experts say while Kim refrained from directly addressing the United States last year, he could change his tone this time around.
Kim said this year that he wants North Korea to have the world's most powerful nuclear force, and declared his country an "irreversible" nuclear state.
The United States and South Korea have warned for months that the North is preparing to conduct its seventh nuclear test.
North Korea is under multiple UN Security Council sanctions over its nuclear and missile activity since 2006.
 
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