ALERT The Winds of War Blow in Korea and The Far East

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Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
jward

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passin' thru
Montevideo gets my vote, BA is steamy that time o' year, and the natives close shop and leave town.
..Tho if yer up for a long drive, a road trip to BA from Mont. has amazing vistas, and many nooks and crannies to lose yourself exploring that more than make up for the heat n dangerous curves along the way.
Housecarl said:
Funny, I was just talking to one of the guys at work about how Christmas in Buenos Aires would be a cool thing....
Click to expand...
 
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AFP3992627499828975984850485359582202563733-correction-nkorea-skorea-missile-diplomacy-1.jpg

 
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Ankit Panda
@nktpnd

The Hwasong-17 is the largest road-mobile liquid-propellant missile ever designed and tested anywhere, so the North Koreans set a record of a sort with this successful flight-test.
Of course, US, USSR/Russia, and China *could* have developed and deployed a system like this, but there are several drawbacks to putting a liquid-propellant ICBM of this size on an integrated transporter-erector-launcher like the North Koreans have done here.
China's DF-4 is probably the closest sibling to the Hwasong-17, but the PLA SAC/PLARF deploy the non-silo based missiles in a "roll-out-to-launch" mode (not on an integrated TEL).
 
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Housecarl

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jward said:
Ankit Panda
@nktpnd

The Hwasong-17 is the largest road-mobile liquid-propellant missile ever designed and tested anywhere, so the North Koreans set a record of a sort with this successful flight-test.
Of course, US, USSR/Russia, and China *could* have developed and deployed a system like this, but there are several drawbacks to putting a liquid-propellant ICBM of this size on an integrated transporter-erector-launcher like the North Koreans have done here.
China's DF-4 is probably the closest sibling to the Hwasong-17, but the PLA SAC/PLARF deploy the non-silo based missiles in a "roll-out-to-launch" mode (not on an integrated TEL).
Click to expand...
DF-4_9.jpg


DF-4_12.jpg

 
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om
U.S. VP Harris met briefly with China's Xi at APEC
1 minute readNovember 18, 202210:18 PM CSTLast Updated 2 hours ago
2 minutes

BANGKOK/SHANGHAI, Nov 19 (Reuters) - U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris on Saturday met briefly with Chinese President Xi Jinping, a White House official said.

"The Vice President noted a key message that President Biden emphasized in his November 14 meeting with President Xi: we must maintain open lines of communication to responsibly manage the competition between our countries," the official said.

Chinese state broadcaster CCTV confirmed the meeting later in the morning.

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Xi Jinping said the meeting with President Biden in Bali, Indonesia, was strategic and constructive, and had important guiding significance for the next stage of China-U.S. relations, according to the broadcaster's official readout of the meeting.

"It is hoped that the two sides will further enhance mutual understanding, reduce misunderstanding and misjudgment, and jointly promote China-US relations to return to a healthy and stable track."

Harris and Xi met at the APEC summit in Thailand.
www.reuters.com

U.S. VP Harris met briefly with China's Xi at APEC

U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris on Saturday met briefly with Chinese President Xi Jinping, a White House official said.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com
 
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Chinese coast guard seizes rocket debris from Filipino navy
Jim Gomez
8-10 minutes

MANILA, Philippines — The Chinese coast guard forcibly seized floating debris the Philippine navy was towing to its island in another confrontation in the disputed South China Sea, a Philippine military commander said Monday. The debris appeared to be from a Chinese rocket launch.

The Chinese vessel twice blocked the Philippine naval boat before seizing the debris it was towing Sunday off Philippine-occupied Thitu Island, Vice Admiral Alberto Carlos said Monday. He said no one was injured in the incident.

It’s the latest flare-up in long-seething territorial disputes in the strategic waterway, involving China, the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan.

Chinese coast guard ships have blocked Philippine supply boats delivering supplies to Filipino forces in the disputed waters in the past, but seizing objects in the possession of another nation’s military constituted a more brazen act.

Carlos said the Filipino sailors, using a long-range camera on Thitu island, spotted the debris drifting in strong waves near a sandbar about 800 yards (540 meters) away. They set out on a boat and retrieved the floating object and started to tow it back to their island using a rope tied to their boat.

As the Filipino sailors were moving back to their island, “they noticed that China coast guard vessel with bow number 5203 was approaching their location and subsequently blocked their pre-plotted course twice,” Carlos said in a statement.

The Chinese coast guard vessel then deployed an inflatable boat with personnel who “forcefully retrieved said floating object by cutting the towing line attached to the” Filipino sailors’ rubber boat. The Filipino sailors decided to return to their island, Carlos said, without detailing what happened.

Maj. Cherryl Tindog, spokesperson of the military’s Western Command, said the floating metal object appeared similar to a number of other pieces of Chinese rocket debris recently found in Philippine waters. She added the Filipino sailors did not fight the seizure.

“We practice maximum tolerance in such a situation,” Tindog told reporters. “Since it involved an unidentified object and not a matter of life and death, our team just decided to return.”

Metal debris from Chinese rocket launches, some showing a part of what appears to be Chinese flag, have been found in Philippine waters in at least three other instances. Such discovery of Chinese rocket debris has opened China to criticism.

Rockets launched from the Wenchang Space Launch Center on China’s Hainan island in recent months have carried construction materials and supplies for China‘s crewed space station.

The Philippine government has filed a large number of diplomatic protests in recent years against China over such aggressive actions in the South China Sea but it did not immediately say what action it would take following Sunday’s incident. The Department of Foreign Affairs in Manila would usually wait for an official investigation report before lodging a protest.

Thitu island, which Filipinos call Pag-asa, hosts a fishing community and Filipino forces and lies near Subi, one of seven disputed reefs in the offshore region that China has turned into missile-protected islands, including three with runways, which U.S. security officials say now resemble military forward bases.

The Philippines and other smaller claimant nations in the disputed region, backed by the United States and other Western countries, have strongly protested and raised alarm over China’s increasingly aggressive actions in the busy waterway.

U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris, who is visiting Manila, is scheduled to fly to the western province of Palawan, which faces the South China Sea, on Tuesday to underscore American support to the Philippines and renew U.S. commitment to defend its longtime treaty ally if Filipino forces, ships and aircraft come under attack in the disputed waters.
www.washingtontimes.com

Chinese coast guard seizes rocket debris from Filipino navy

The Chinese coast guard forcibly seized floating debris the Philippine navy was towing to its island in another confrontation in the disputed South China Sea, a Philippine military commander said Monday. The debris appeared to be from a Chinese rocket launch.
www.washingtontimes.com www.washingtontimes.com
 
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Idrees Ali
@idreesali114
2m

What’s maybe most impressive is that the U.S. side got a readout before the Chinese.
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H

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Hummm......

Posted for fair use.....
www.voanews.com

As Trump Looms, South Koreans Mull Their Own Nukes

‘America First’ ideas are helping intensify South Korea’s nuclear debate, analysts say
www.voanews.com www.voanews.com

As Trump Looms, South Koreans Mull Their Own Nukes​

November 24, 2022 5:22 AM
SEOUL, SOUTH KOREA —
In December 2019, then-U.S. President Donald Trump was asked whether he thought it was worth it to have “all those” U.S. troops stationed in South Korea.

“It could be debated. I could go either way,” Trump answered.

The comments came at the height of tense negotiations over Trump’s demand that Seoul pay much more to host approximately 28,000 U.S. troops.

Trump's answer did not come out of the blue. Throughout his time as president -- and in fact, even before and after his presidency -- Trump regularly questioned the value of the U.S.-South Korea alliance.

According to I Alone Can Fix It: Donald J. Trump's Catastrophic Final Year, a 2021 book by two Washington Post journalists, Trump privately told close aides that he planned to “blow up” the U.S.-South Korea alliance if he won reelection in 2020.

In part because he lost that election, no one knows how serious Trump was about upending the U.S. relationship with South Korea.

Some analysts say Trump was only being transactional, as he was with many other allies, and that he never intended to abandon Seoul.

Others are not so sure, noting Trump once went so far as to suggest South Korea should get its own nuclear weapons so that Seoul could protect itself.

Faced with an increasingly hostile and nuclear-armed neighbor, South Korea can afford little ambiguity on the matter, which helps explain why a growing number of prominent voices in Seoul would like to see if Trump’s nuke offer still stands.

Going mainstream

One of the most outspoken advocates of South Korea getting its own nuclear weapons is Cheong Seong-chang, a senior researcher at the Sejong Institute, a nonpartisan foreign policy research organization outside Seoul.

Cheong spoke to VOA several days after Trump announced his 2024 presidential bid. He said it is not just the possible return of Trump that is concerning -- it’s the chance that his America First ideas will have a lasting impact on U.S. foreign policy.

“The United States has a presidential election every four years…[it] may go back to isolationism, which is why South Korea’s own nuclear armament is essential to maintain stable security and deter North Korea,” Cheong told VOA.

Fringe figures have long called for South Korea to acquire nuclear weapons, but recently the proposal has gone mainstream. This year, several well-known scholars have proposed Seoul either acquire its own nuclear arsenal or request the redeployment of U.S. tactical nuclear weapons that were removed in the early 1990s.

A poll published in May by the conservative Asan Institute for Policy Studies suggested that more than 70% of South Koreans support their country developing indigenous nuclear weapons -- the highest level of support since the organization began asking the question in 2010.


Cheong is trying to turn that support into something more organized. In early November, he launched the ROK Forum for Nuclear Strategy, which promotes South Korea’s nuclear armament and discusses plans to make it happen. In its infancy, the group already has more than 40 members, according to Cheong.

Not just Trump

Trump is far from the only factor driving South Korea’s nuclear arms debate.

South Korean leaders are also alarmed at the rapid development of North Korea’s nuclear weapons. North Korea has conducted a record number of launches this year, including both long-range missiles that could reach the United States and shorter-range ones that threaten Seoul. U.S. and South Korean officials say North Korea could conduct another nuclear test soon.

North Korea has also embraced a more aggressive nuclear posture. In October, leader Kim Jong Un oversaw a series of launches simulating a tactical nuclear strike on South Korea. The North is likely moving ahead with deploying tactical nuclear weapons to frontline positions, analysts say.

In addition, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has underscored the risks that non-nuclear states face when confronted with an aggressive, nuclear-armed neighbor.

Although South Korea is protected by the U.S. nuclear umbrella, some South Korean analysts believe the United States may be reluctant to respond to a North Korean attack if Pyongyang has the ability to destroy a major U.S. city -- in essence, the fear is that the United States would not want to risk San Francisco to save Seoul.

“North Korea believes there’s a slight chance that they could get away with a nuclear attack without getting a reprisal from the United States,” said Chun In-bum, a retired lieutenant general in the South Korean army.

Big obstacles

In Chun’s view, acquiring nuclear weapons is one way for South Korea to guarantee its security, although he acknowledges major barriers.

Among the uncertainties is the question of how China, Russia, and others in the region would respond. For instance, would Japan, another U.S. ally in Northeast Asia, feel compelled to get its own nuclear weapons?

Analysts are also unsure exactly how the United States would react if South Korea eventually did begin pursuing nuclear weapons. And many South Koreans who support acquiring nukes hint they would tread cautiously with that in mind.

“It’s not as if I’m going to risk the alliance in order to have South Korea get nuclear weapons. But what happens if the U.S. president says he’s going to pull U.S. troops from Korea? What if that becomes a reality?” asked Chun.

In some ways, the situation mirrors the 1970s, when South Korea briefly pursued a nuclear weapons program amid questions about the long-term U.S. security commitment.

Instead, South Korea ratified the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. It is now uncertain what consequences South Korea would face for abandoning its commitments under the pact.

Reassurance limits

When asked about the issue in recent months, Pentagon and State Department officials have ruled out the idea of returning tactical nuclear weapons to South Korea. Instead, they have focused on how the U.S. is prepared to use the full range of its capabilities, including nuclear weapons, to defend South Korea.

At a meeting earlier this month with his U.S. counterpart, Lloyd Austin, South Korean Defense Minister Lee Jong-sup said Seoul is not considering the return of tactical nuclear weapons and remains committed to the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.

At that Pentagon meeting, both sides agreed to several measures meant to reinforce the U.S. security commitment. The steps included increasing the deployment of U.S. strategic assets, such as long-range bombers and aircraft carriers, to South Korea, and vowing that any North Korean nuclear strike “will result in the end of the Kim regime.”

What they didn’t discuss, at least according to the 10-page joint communique released following the meeting, was Trump or his America First ideas -- perhaps the one area where U.S. officials can offer the least reassurance.

“You can’t,” said Jenny Town, a Korea specialist at the Washington-based Stimson Center.

“Democracies are democracies and policies can shift,” she said.

Much depends on how Trump and his ideas fare in the 2024 elections. But even if Trump loses again, Town said, many in South Korea will have concerns about the future.

“It isn’t business as usual anymore,” she said. “It’s recent memory, and it doesn’t fade very quickly.”
 
jward

jward

passin' thru
hmm. how many steps from here to openly owning nukes

​

Blue-ribbon Panel Urges Japan to Develop Counterstrike Capabilities​


By Takahashi Kosuke for The Diplomat




Tokyo Report | Security | East Asia​


The Japanese defense ministry estimates that Tokyo will need to spend 48 trillion yen on defense over the next five years if it wants to achieve its security goals.


A Japanese government panel of experts has proposed that the nation acquire “counterstrike capability” against an armed enemy attack as well as an imminent attack, and called for raising taxes to finance a significant increase in defense spending in order to “fundamentally reinforce defense capabilities within five years.”
The proposal will likely be the basis for updating the nation’s three key security documents next month, marking a big departure from Japan’s postwar status as a lightly-armed economic power with an exclusively defense-oriented policy defined by its pacifist constitution.

The blue-ribbon panel’s chair, former Ambassador to the United States Sasae Kenichiro, visited Prime Minister Kishida Fumio on November 22 to submit its proposal-style report.
The report “is important advice, and we will promote discussions on necessary defense power, budget and fiscal resources, while closely coordinating with the ruling parties,” Kishida said at the meeting with the former diplomat.

Counterstrike Capability
“The balance of power in the Indo-Pacific has changed significantly, and neighboring countries are rapidly increasing their nuclear missile capabilities in terms of both quality and quantity,” the report stated, adding that “possession and enhancement of Japan’s counterattack capability is essential for maintaining and improving deterrence.”
In doing so, the report proposed the nation “equip itself with a sufficient number of missiles as soon as possible, keeping in mind (a time frame of) the next five years, by improving domestically produced stand-off missiles and purchasing foreign-made missiles.”

Japan’s Ministry of Defense (MoD) is currently developing an extended-range version of the domestically developed Type 12 surface-to-ship missile in a bid to bolster its defense, especially against China’s increasing military activities inside and outside the East China Sea, where the Senkaku Islands are located. The islands, also known as the Diaoyu Islands, are controlled by Japan but also claimed by China.
In addition, Japan is considering buying U.S.-developed Tomahawk cruise missiles, which have a range of up to 1,600 kilometers and can fly at a low altitude while continually adjusting trajectory to strike targets with great accuracy.
Tokyo plans to revise three key security documents – the National Security Strategy (NSS), the National Defense Program Guidelines, and the Medium-Term Defense Program – by the end of the year. This is the second time the government will update the NSS. The first NSS was formulated in 2013 during the second Abe Shinzo administration.
The biggest focus of these three documents will be the nation’s possession of counterstrike capabilities, Kawano Katsutoshi, a former chief of staff and joint staff in Japan’s Self Defense Forces (JSDF), said in a speech in Tokyo on November 20.

Kawano pointed out there is a difference of opinion between the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its junior coalition partner, Komeito, a historically pacifist party, over how far the JSDF can protect the nation against a war of aggression.
For example, the LDP says the counterattack capability should include the capability to attack an enemy’s command and control systems as well as military bases, while Komeito is reluctant to do so and takes the stance of defending the country “within the minimum necessary range.”
“Komeito insists our nation should protect our country with a minimum defense capability as well as the minimum necessary measures, even if we obtain the counterstrike capability, but why should we stick to the minimum necessary to respond to a war of aggression?” Kawano asked the audience. “Shouldn’t the JSDF make a full-commitment at such a crucial time?”

Because of Komeito, “I don’t think this will happen this time, but I think it’s a step forward just by including the ability to counterattack,” he said.

Broad-based Tax Burden
The second attention point of the report is that the panel proposed the government make clear that a broad-based tax burden is necessary. The panel did not name specific taxes but it is widely believed it had corporate and income taxes in mind.
The Japanese defense ministry estimates Tokyo will need to spend 48 trillion yen ($340 billion) on defense over the next five years if it wants to achieve its security goals. The figure is about 1.7 times the five-year defense spending from fiscal 2019, which stood at 27.47 trillion yen. The new five-year plan would start from fiscal 2023.

Dual Use
The third focal point of the report is about the significance of dual-use technologies that are changing the character of warfare much faster than expected in Ukraine and elsewhere.
“In order to strengthen the comprehensive defense system, it is essential to cooperate not only with researchers in the field of security, but also with a wide range of cutting-edge researchers in academia and the private sector,” the report said.
“For cutting-edge science and technology such as space, cyber, AI, quantum computing, and semiconductors, it is essential not only to create a framework for research and development, but also to involve cutting-edge researchers,” it added.
This will also mark a major turning point for Tokyo in departing from its postwar pacifism. In Japan, almost all scientists have vowed to avoid military research in repentance for cooperating with the military in the years leading up to World War II. So, the government’s push to fund research into dual-use technologies could spark an ethics debate among some scientists, although the importance of national security is also being recognized amid an increasingly severe security environment surrounding Japan.
thediplomat.com

Blue-ribbon Panel Urges Japan to Develop Counterstrike Capabilities

The Japanese defense ministry estimates that Tokyo will need to spend 48 trillion yen on defense over the next five years if it wants to achieve its security goals.
thediplomat.com
 
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China's Xi, in message to North Korea's Kim, says willing to work together for regional, global stability -KCNA
1 minute read
November 25, 2022
3:58 PM CST
Last Updated 8 hours ago
1-2 minutes

APEC summit 2022 in Bangkok
Chinese President Xi Jinping looks on during a meeting with Thai Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Bangkok, Thailand November 19, 2022. REUTERS/Athit Perawongmetha/Pool/File Photo

SEOUL, Nov 26 (Reuters) - Chinese President Xi Jinping stressed to North Korean leader Kim Jong Un that China would be willing to work together with North Korea for regional and global peace, stability and prosperity, North Korea's state media KCNA reported on Saturday, citing Xi's letter to Kim.

KCNA did not mention North Korea's recent missile launches that have heightened tensions around the Korean peninsula following joint military drills between South Korea and the United States.
www.reuters.com

China's Xi, in message to North Korea's Kim, says willing to work together for regional, global stability -KCNA

Chinese President Xi Jinping stressed to North Korean leader Kim Jong Un that China would be willing to work together with North Korea for regional and global peace, stability and prosperity, North Korea's state media KCNA reported on Saturday, citing Xi's letter to Kim.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com
 
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US military poised to return to Subic Bay, Philippines after 30 year absence, to counter China’s presence​


  • Manila and Washington are negotiating about setting up five more locations for the US military
  • Subic Bay, which faces the South China Sea, was a US Naval Base for 94 years until 30 years ago

A'an Suryana and Kyodo
Published: 9:17pm, 24 Nov, 2022

The US military is likely to return to Subic Bay 30 years after relinquishing what was once their largest military base in Asia, due to concerns over China’s increasing maritime assertiveness, a top official of the local body overseeing the free port zone said.

The former US Naval Base Subic Bay, which faces the South China Sea, has become a bustling free port that employs about 150,000 locals, administered by the Subic Bay Metropolitan Authority.

Manila and Washington have been in negotiations over setting up five more locations in the Asian country to build US military facilities and preposition weapons under the Enhanced Defence Cooperation Agreement.

Rolen Paulino, chairman of the SBMA, told Kyodo News on Wednesday that he would be “very surprised” if Subic Bay does not become an EDCA site, as “during war, time is of the essence,” a day before the 30th anniversary of the US Navy’s departure from the harbour that it had controlled for nearly 94 years.
US-Philippine visit reaffirms defence ties, as protesters rally against American militarism

A series of events were held Thursday at the free port to mark the 30th Founding Anniversary of the SBMA, including a public display of civilian aeroplanes and a Philippine Navy helicopter at the Subic airport which is now being repurposed for surveillance and aviation training.

Signed in 2014, the EDCA is likely to continue beyond its 10-year period, as indicated by the United States’ renewed interest in establishing new bases in the Philippines and fresh funding for upgrading existing EDCA sites.

Paulino said tensions over the Taiwan Strait and the growing animosity between the United States and China are causes for concern.

A former mayor of the adjacent Olongapo City, Paulino would prefer that his government maintains a defence alliance with the United States, adding that most Olongapo residents are “pro-Americans” given the very long time they have lived alongside US servicemen.
Philippines using base near South China Sea to counter China’s assertiveness
27 May 2022

On November 9, US Ambassador to the Philippines Mary Kay Carlson visited Subic Bay and the shipyard that US private firm Cerberus Capital Management LP acquired this year. The Philippine Navy has also begun occupying part of the shipyard as its new naval base.

Paulino believes Carlson’s visit amplifies the importance of Subic Bay to the United States. A senior Philippine official said two Chinese firms had wanted to take control of the shipyard, but the United States had stepped in.
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The Philippines and China have overlapping claims in the South China Sea, a mineral-rich and vital shipping lane through which US$3 trillion worth of trade passes annually.

As ordered by Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr, Manila on Thursday wrote a note verbale (an informal unsigned diplomatic note) to China, seeking “clarification” on the November 20 encounter between the Philippine Navy and the Chinese Coast Guard near the Philippine-occupied island of Thitu, a maritime feature in the contested waters.

Philippine authorities have said the Chinese coastguard “forcefully” retrieved debris resembling a Chinese rocket launched in October.

A Chinese Coast Guard rigid hull inflatable boat approached a Philippine naval ship towing the debris to the island and twice attempted to block the vessel’s way before the Chinese boat’s crew cut the towing line and took the object.


 
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Seoul says it cannot and will not recognize North Korea as nuclear weapons state | NK News​


Jeongmin


Defense ministry rejects idea of arms control with DPRK after Kim Yo Jong slams Seoul for considering more sanctions
South Korea said it will never recognize North Korea as a nuclear state, repeating recent remarks from the Biden administration amid ongoing debate about the merits of a nuclear arms control deal with Pyongyang.
This comes just hours after the North Korean leader’s powerful sister Kim Yo Jong issued a statement mocking the South for having “parroted” the U.S. by considering more unilateral sanctions against Pyongyang.
“We can never agree to the idea of nuclear arms control negotiation, as you’d know it well,” said defense ministry spokesperson Moon Hong-shik on Thursday in response to a question from a reporter who referred to recent analyses about “accepting” North Korea as nuclear weapons state.

“Ultimately, we cannot and will not recognize North Korea as a nuclear power,” Moon stressed.
This is largely consistent with U.S. State Department Ned Price’s remarks on Oct. 31, when he was asked if there was any possibility that Washington will eventually recognize North Korea as a nuclear state.
“I do not foresee that ever becoming our policy,” Price responded.
Kim Jong Un stressed earlier this year that his country will never give up nuclear weapons, let alone consider any denuclearization talks ever again.

“There will never be any declaration of ‘giving up our nukes’ or ‘denuclearization,’ nor any kind of negotiations or bargaining to meet the other side’s conditions,” Kim said in September.
Edited by Arius Derr
www.nknews.org

Seoul says it cannot and will not recognize North Korea as nuclear weapons state | NK News

South Korea said it will never recognize North Korea as a nuclear state, repeating recent remarks from the Biden administration amid ongoing debate about the merits of a nuclear arms control deal with Pyongyang. This comes just hours after the North Korean leader’s powerful sister Kim Yo Jong...
www.nknews.org www.nknews.org
 
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Japan eyes using enemy base strike capability with US - The Mainichi​




3-4 minutes


7.jpg

The Liberal Democratic Party's headquarters is seen in this file photo taken in Tokyo's Chiyoda Ward. (Mainichi)
TOKYO (Kyodo) -- Japan is considering using an enemy base strike capability, or what it prefers to call "counterstrike capability," with its ally the United States, in the event it comes under attack, a source familiar with the matter said Friday.
Highlighting the need to obtain the capability in response to a worsening security environment, the government will also limit the targets of such attacks to "military" ones, but it may be loosely defined to include not only enemy bases but also other sites, such as command centers, the source said.
Those ideas were described in a policy document shown at a working-level meeting of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party and its junior coalition partner Komeito on Friday.
The government of Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is set to revise its National Security Strategy next month.
In April, the LDP proposed that the government declare the possession of an enemy base strike capability, which would allow Japan to hit and disable enemy missiles before they are launched from foreign territory. The party proposal also allows targeting command centers.

Known as a "pacifist party," Komeito was initially reluctant to agree to allow such a capability but has begun to consider accepting the LDP's stance in general.
Keiichi Ishii, secretary general of Komeito, told a press conference Friday that Japan will need the capability "not to counterattack but to deter" possible armed attacks on Japan, citing threats from North Korea, which has repeatedly tested ballistic missiles.
The ruling camp is expected to discuss details, including under what conditions Japan could use such a capability and what specifically could be targeted.
The government's position on Japan's exclusively defense-oriented security posture and no recourse to preemptive attacks remains unchanged, according to the source.
As part of its enemy base strike capability, the government will deploy long-range missiles currently under development, the source said.

Tokyo has heavily depended on Washington for its protection under the 1960 Japan-U.S. security treaty, which states Washington will defend territories under Japan's administration from armed attack.
On Tuesday, a government panel consisting mostly of defense policy and public finance experts proposed upholding the plan to acquire the enemy base strike capability, calling it "essential" to enhancing Japan's deterrence.
mainichi.jp

Japan eyes using enemy base strike capability with US - The Mainichi

TOKYO (Kyodo) -- Japan is considering using an enemy base strike capability, or what it prefers to call
mainichi.jp mainichi.jp
 
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More of the daughter- is this the official chain of introducing the next ruler- would NOK accept a gal- she an only child- ?

William Gallo
@GalloVOA
Kim Jong Un brought his daughter to another public event -- this time praising the officials who helped with the recent ICBM launch.
At the event, Kim "expressed the conviction that our self-defensive power would be the world's strongest," according to Voice of Korea.

More pics via KCNA:
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1596627966359875585
View: https://twitter.com/GalloVOA/status/1596627966359875585?s=20&t=ZLiP4ia2SyTrVZpcqVLn2Q
 
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jward said:
not sure I realized China allowed people to protest. Seems catching tho

Washington Examiner
@dcexaminer
33m

Official
Protests break out in China against COVID-19 lockdowns after deadly fire kills 10
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1596287685945044992
View: https://twitter.com/dcexaminer/status/1596287685945044992?s=20&t=X9E3t918a1PdBPpPxG6EUA
Click to expand...
jward said:
hmm.

Songpinganq
@songpinganq
4h

JUST IN - Chinese iPhone factory workers clashing with police.
They use fire extinguishers to fight against police's tear gas.
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1595209852988563457
View: https://twitter.com/EndGameWW3/status/1595209852988563457?s=20&t=38jCnVs8_Znqke1tHd0crw
Click to expand...

David Moser
@david__moser

I've lived in China for 30 years, and I've never seen such a brazenly open and sustained expression of rage against the PRC govt. WeChat is exploding with protest videos and furious vitriol, and civil disobedience is becoming rampant. This is a serious test of CCP governance.

9:00 AM · Nov 26, 2022
·Twitter Web App
 
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Pinecone

Has No Life - Lives on TB
More of the daughter- is this the official chain of introducing the next ruler- would NOK accept a gal- she an only child- ?

I wonder what her auntie thinks about this? I hope the child has a food taster.
 
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Kim Jong Un says North Korea's goal is for world's strongest nuclear force
3 minute read
November 26, 2022
4:11 PM CST
Last Updated an hour ago
3-4 minutes

SEOUL, Nov 27 (Reuters) - North Korean leader Kim Jong Un said his country's ultimate goal is to possess the world's most powerful nuclear force, as he promoted dozens of military officers involved in the recent launch of North Korea's largest ballistic missile, state media reported on Sunday.

The announcement comes after Kim inspected a test of the country's new Hwasong-17 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), and pledged to counter U.S. nuclear threats with nuclear weapons on Nov. 18.

Building the nuclear force is for reliably protecting the dignity and sovereignty of the state and the people, and "its ultimate goal is to possess the world's most powerful strategic force, the absolute force unprecedented in the century," Kim said in the order promoting the officers.

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He called the Hwasong-17 the "world's strongest strategic weapon" and said it demonstrated North Korea's resolve and ability to eventually build the world's strongest army.

North Korean scientists have made a "wonderful leap forward in the development of the technology of mounting nuclear warheads on ballistic missiles," Kim said, without elaborating.

Posing for photos with the scientists, engineers, military officials and others involved in the test, Kim said he expects them to continue to expand and strengthen the country's nuclear deterrent at an extraordinarily rapid pace.

Those workers issued an oath of allegiance and faith to the ruling party, vowing to defend the "absolute authority" of the party and Kim, and vowing that "our missiles will fly vigorously only in the direction indicated" by him.

They said Kim had "carefully taught us one by one" during the development of the Hwasong-17.

Capable of reaching the U.S. mainland, the missile launch prompted the United States to call for a United Nations Security Council presidential statement to hold North Korea accountable for its missile tests, which are banned by Security Council resolutions.

North Korea's powerful Standing Committee of the Supreme People's Assembly awarded the Hwasong-17 missile the title of "DPRK Hero and Gold Star Medal and Order of National Flag 1st Class", KCNA reported in another statement, using the initials of the country's official name, Democratic People's Republic of Korea.

"(The missile) clearly proved before the world that the DPRK is a full-fledged nuclear power capable of standing against the nuclear supremacy of the U.S. imperialists and fully demonstrated its might as the most powerful ICBM state," KCNA said.

The test fire demonstrated that North Korea will react in kind to "the enemy's nuke and full-frontal confrontation," the report said.
www.reuters.com

Kim Jong Un says North Korea's goal is for world's strongest nuclear force

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un said his country's ultimate goal is to possess the world's most powerful nuclear force, as he promoted dozens of military officers involved in the recent launch of North Korea's largest ballistic missile, state media reported on Sunday.
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Kim Jong Un’s Daughter Unveiled Last Week Is His Second Child, Seoul Says​


This photo provided on Nov. 19, 2022, by the North Korean government shows North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, right, and his daughter inspecting a missile at Pyongyang International Airport in Pyongyang, North Korea, Friday, Nov. 18, 2022. Independent journalists were not given access to cover the event depicted in this image distributed by the North Korean government. The content of this image is as provided and cannot be independently verified. Korean language watermark on image as provided by source reads: KCNA which is the abbreviation for Korean Central News Agency. (Korean Central News Agency/Korea News Service–AP)
This photo provided on Nov. 19, 2022, by the North Korean government shows North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, right, and his daughter inspecting a missile at Pyongyang International Airport in Pyongyang, North Korea, Friday, Nov. 18, 2022. Independent journalists were not given access to cover the event depicted in this image distributed by the North Korean government. The content of this image is as provided and cannot be independently verified. Korean language watermark on image as provided by source reads: "KCNA" which is the abbreviation for Korean Central News Agency.

Korean Central News Agency/Korea News Service–AP

By HYUNG-JIN KIM / AP

November 22, 2022 1:09 AM EST

SEOUL, South Korea — The daughter of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un who was recently seen in public for the first time at a missile launch site is his second child, South Korea’s spy agency told lawmakers Tuesday, as speculation swirled about his motives for bringing her to the attention of the outside world.

On Saturday, North Korea said that Kim observed the launch of the country’s most powerful intercontinental ballistic missile — Hwasong-17 — the previous day with his wife Ri Sol Ju and their “beloved daughter.” State media released photos showing Kim walking hand-in-hand with a young girl clad in a white coat and red shoes past a massive missile placed on a launch truck, and watching a soaring weapon from a distance.



In a closed-door briefing at a parliament committee, South Korea’s National Intelligence Service, the country’s main spy agency, told lawmakers that it assesses the daughter is Kim’s second child named Ju Ae, Yoo Sang-bum, one of the lawmakers who attended the meeting, said.

Youn Kun-young, who also attended the NIS briefing, confirmed the substance of Yoo’s comments but refused to provide further details.

The daughter apparently is Kim’s child who retired NBA star Dennis Rodman saw during his trip to Pyongyang in 2013. After that Pyongyang visit, Rodman told the British newspaper Guardian that he and Kim had a “relaxing time by the sea” with the leader’s family and that he held Kim’s baby daughter, named Ju Ae.

It was the first time North Korea officially confirmed her existence. North Korea’s state media didn’t disclose the age, name and other details of Kim’s daughter last week. South Korean media have speculated Kim married Ri in 2009 and that they have three children, who were born in 2010, 2013 and 2017, respectively.

Kim, 38, is a third generation of his family to run North Korea since 1948. He inherited power in late 2011 upon the death of his father Kim Jong Il.

Kim and his father were both first mentioned in state media dispatches after they became adults. Given that, the revealing of the daughter believed to be in her early teens came as a surprise to outside observers.

Some experts say the daughter’s disclosing at a missile test site showed that Kim was emboldened by his advancing nuclear arsenal, the backbone of his family’s rule. Others speculate if Kim continues to bring her to major public events, that could suggest that Kim might have her as his early heir apparent in his mind.
time.com

Girl Seen with Kim Jong Un Is His Second Child, Seoul Says

The daughter apparently is Kim’s child who retired NBA star Dennis Rodman saw during his trip to Pyongyang in 2013
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What we know about Kim Jong Un's 3 possible heirs
Michelle Mark
Apr 22, 2020, 9:08 AM
Kim Jong Un and wife Ri Sol Ju
North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un and his wife Ri Sol-Ju in 2012. KCNA via KNS/AP Images

North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un is believed to have three children with his wife Ri Sol Ju.
There are few details on the kids, but they're believed to be between the ages of three and 10 years old.
The eldest child is believed to be a boy who is expected to one day succeed Kim.
Visit Business Insider's homepage for more stories.



Like much of North Korea, the personal and family life of its dictator Kim Jong Un is shrouded in secrecy.

The North Korean leader remains an object of wild speculation and curiosity throughout much of the western world, like reports this week that US intelligence indicated Kim recently underwent heart surgery and could even be incapacitated. The South Korean government denied the reports, but that hasn't tamped down the speculation.

Little is known about his wife, Ri Sol Ju, and even less is known about the three young children the couple is believed to have.

Most of the currently available information about the family comes from South Korea's National Intelligence Service. But former US basketball star Dennis Rodman has also spoken to media about holding one of Kim's children during one of his controversial visits to the Hermit Kingdom, though the details he provided have not been independently corroborated.

Here's everything we know.
Most sources agree that Kim and his wife have had three children since their secretive marriage in 2009.
kim jong un wife ri sol-ju
Kim (R) applauds with his wife Ri Sol-Ju (L) during a performance by the Moranbong band in Pyongyang in 2012. KCNA via Reuters

Source: Business Insider
Kim's first child is believed to be a boy, born in 2010, and his second child was likely a daughter born in 2013. The fact that Kim has at least one male heir likely means that he could eventually succeed Kim to continue the family's dictatorship dynasty.
Kim jong un
Kim guides the launch of a Hwasong-12 missile in 2017. KCNA via REUTERS

Source: CNN
But the gender of Kim's third child, remains unknown. The child is believed to have been born in February 2017.
kim jong un
Kim participates in a meeting in Pyongyang on September 4, 2017. KCNA via REUTERS

Source: Business Insider
Kim has not discussed his children in public, but he reportedly made a rare, personal comment about his children to US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in 2018, according to the former CIA officer who helped coordinate the Singapore summit.
kim jong un mike pompeo north korea
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un shakes hands with US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in Pyongyang, North Korea on May 9, 2018. North Korea's Korean Central News Agency/Reuters

Sources: Reuters, The Wall Street Journal
"I'm a father and a husband. And I have children," Kim told Pompeo, according to retired CIA officer Andrew Kim. "And I don't want my children to carry the nuclear weapon on their back their whole life."
kim jong un
North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un sits in his vehicle after arriving at the Dong Dang railway station, Vietnam, at the border with China, February 26, 2019. Reuters/Athit Perawongmetha

Sources: Reuters, The Wall Street Journal
Kim reportedly mike pompeo kim jong un north koreamade the comments after Pompeo asked whether he would be willing to abandon his nuclear ambitions.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un meets with US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on May 9, 2018 in Pyongyang. KCNA / via REUTERS

Sources: Reuters, The Wall Street Journal
Kim's daughter is named Ju Ae, according to Dennis Rodman, who said he met the child in 2013. "I held their baby Ju Ae and spoke with Ms. Ri as well. [Kim's] a good dad and has a beautiful family," Rodman told The Guardian.
Kim Jong Un Dennis Rodman
Kim watches a basketball game with Dennis Rodman at Pyongyang Indoor Stadium on January 9, 2014. REUTERS/KCNA

Source: The Guardian
The kids' exact ages and birth years have been difficult to pin down, but can be roughly inferred from the lengthy periods in which Ri has mysteriously vanished from public life.
Kim Jong Un, wife Ri Sol Ju
Kim and his wife Ri watch a performance by the Moranbong Band at the April 25 House of Culture in this undated photo released by North Korea's Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) in Pyongyang in 2014. Reuters/KCNA

Source: Business Insider
In late 2016, media outlets began noticing that Ri had not been seen for roughly seven months, sparking fears that she had perhaps fallen out of favor with Kim.
kim jong un wife ri sol-ju
Kim stands next to Ri as they attend the 2014 Combat Flight Contest among commanding officers of the Korean People's Air Force in 2014. KCNA via Reuters

Sources: Fox News, Chosun Ilbo
But intelligence sources later reported that the absence had most likely been due to her pregnancy and that she had given birth in early 2017.
north korea couple kim jong-un ri sol-ju
Kim Jong Un and Ri Sol Ju in an undated photo. North Korea's Korean Central News Agency/AP

Sources: Fox News, Chosun Ilbo
Similarly, news outlets speculated on her prolonged public absence back in 2012, which was later attributed to a pregnancy.
kim jong un wife ri sol-ju
North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un and his wife Ri Sol-Ju arrive at an auditorium to enjoy a performance given by the Moranbong Band in 2012. KCNA via Reuters

Sources: HuffPost, Chosun Ilbo
There are no public photos of Kim and Ri's children, but the couple do occasionally pose for propaganda photos with other people's kids, like in this photo at a children's hospital in 2014.
kim jong un wife ri sol-ju
Kim Jong un and his wife Ri Sol Ju play with children during a visit to the Taesongsan General Hospital in 2014. KCNA via Reuters

Source: Business Insider
Or this photo at a children's camp in 2013.
kim jong un ri sol ju
Kim and Ri sit during a visit to the Pyongyang Myohyangsan Children's Camp at the foot of Mt. Myohyang in North Phyongan Province in 2013. KCNA via Reuters

Source: Business Insider
The youth of Kim's children was speculated to be one of the reasons Kim promoted his sister in October 2017 to a top position in his government: the head of the propaganda department of the Worker's Party of Korea.
kim yo-jong north korea
Kim Yo Jong, sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, attends the opening of the Ryomyong residential area in Pyongyang on April 13, 2017. Associated Press/Wong Maye-E

Source: Business Insider
Some have wondered whether she could take over in case something happens to Kim before his children grow old enough to rule.
North Korea Kim Yo Jong
People watch a TV news program showing Kim Yo Jong, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un's younger sister, at Seoul Railway Station in Seoul, South Korea on Nov. 27, 2014. AP

Source: The New York Times
Though Kim Yo Jong is often seen by her brother's side and is the most powerful woman in North Korea, her high-ranking position doesn't mean indefinite protection. Kim is known to turn on family members quickly when they fall out of favor. It's widely suspected that he orchestrated the plot to murder his half-brother Kim Jong Nam in 2017.
Kim Jong Nam
Kim Jong Nam arrives at Beijing airport in Beijing, China, in this photo taken by Kyodo February 11, 2007. Reuters/KYODO Kyodo

Source: PBS
The secrecy around Kim's children is not unusual for his family — there are still contested claims over the number of children and wives Kim's father and grandfather had.
Kim Jong-Il Funeral
Kim Jong-Il's funeral. Associated Press

Source: Business Insider
Kim Il Sung, who was in power until his 1994 death, probably had six children and two wives.
kim il sung
Kim Il Sung visits a fruit farm in North Hwanghae, North Korea in 1979. KCNA via Associated Press

Source: CNN
Kim Jong Il, who ruled North Korea until his death in 2011, is believed to have had seven children with four women, only one of whom was his legal wife. His third son, Kim Jong Un, sidelined his older brothers to become the new supreme leader of the Hermit Kingdom.
North Korea Soldiers Kim Jong Il
North Korean leader Kim Jong-il (L) visits the Pyongyang Grand Theater in 2009. REUTERS/KCNA

Source: CNN
Here's Kim Jong Un's full family tree, with his three likely heirs on the bottom right.
kim jong un family tree
The Kim family tree. Business Insider/Samantha Lee

Here's Kim Jong Un's full family tree, with his three likely heirs on the bottom right.​


kim jong un family tree

The Kim family tree. Business Insider/Samantha Lee
Source: Business Insider
Source: Business Insider

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www.businessinsider.com

What we know about Kim Jong Un's 3 possible heirs

Little is known about Kim Jong Un's wife, Ri Sol Ju, and even less is known about the three young children the couple is believed to have.
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Yang Zhang
@ProfYangZhang
Sociologist studying state, empire, elite politics, contentious politics, political economy, & China. Asst. Prof
@AU_SIS. Co-founder @THiS_TheHisSoc

Contentious politics is exciting for its eventfulness, newness, and creativity. This wave of multi-site protests in China is spontaneous, novel, and epic. It is still unfolding; its ending and consequences are uncertain. We may only offer a tentative analysis of its causes. 1/ Image

In the past weeks, we saw violent labor protests in Zhengzhou, contentions mourning the deaths in Urumqi, the spread of the mourning protests in other cities, the campus protest in Nanjing Media College and other universities, and massive online protests (& censoring). 2/

More strikingly, new slogans, symbols, and tactics emerged out of this wave of protests. We saw solidarity of Han and minorities in Xinjiang, “Xi Jinping Step Down” in Shanghai, white paper in multiple campuses, and “freedom” & “democracy,” words disappearing for 30 years. 3/ Image

Why were Chinese people able to mobilize in such a scale to protest against a regime that has turned more dictatorial recently? Why did Xi’s full control lead to full collapse? Why did China’s all-encompassing security and surveillance apparatus fail to prevent the protests? 4/

Revolutionary movements arise with immediate and underlying causes. The immediate cause is obvious this time: people are dissatisfied with the Zero Covid policy especially its stringent local implementation even after the Party Congress. There seems no exit, no end, & no hope. 5/

This may be the onset of more protests in China, which is trapped in a dilemma due to its slow push for elder vaccination. Abrupt opening will cause massive deaths & then national lockdown; continuing Zero Covid is unsustainable. Dynamic zero-covid leads to dynamic unrests. 6/

The underlying cause is more ironical (but not surprising to us): full centralized control leads to full responsibility and then national movement targeting at the center when expectations are not met. This is a Tocquevillian wisdom in his Old Regime and the French Revolution. 7/

Then how did Chinese citizens mobilize in the absence of social movement organizations or networks? There are three mechanisms. First, in a mass society where intermediate organizations are absent, citizens can spontaneously & surprisingly self-mobilize if no other way out. 8/

Second, ecological mobilization. Just like the Tiananmen movement, ecology-based mobilization again played an vital role when formal organizations did not exist: Factory dormitory in Foxconn, neighborhood solidarity in Urumqi & Beijing, and campus ecology in 100 universities. 9/

Third, social media effects: weibo, wechat & douyin played a key role in mobilization. China is tightly censored, but social media innovation & censorship became a game of recursive interactions this time. The “white paper” was an unexpected product in this endogenous process.10/

Finally, never forget contingency! This time it is the World Cup, which makes another dilemma for the Chinese state. People watch it and know how open and free outside of China; but if it is banned, more citizens will go to street. Either way, Football Fuels Fighters! 11/11 Image

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Why decoupling from China creates economic and security risks for South Korea - KOREA PRO​


yejichung

6-8 minutes


China would have has less reason to consider economic costs and security risks of escalatory policies if delinked
In recent months, decoupling — or reducing dependence on other countries — has been a much-talked-about activity for South Korean lawmakers. The Chip 4 alliance, with which South Korea is now involved, is a prime example, as well as the continuation of Trump-era protectionism codified in the Inflation Reduction Act that creates new barriers for South Korean and other foreign automakers.

Chinese leader Xi Jinping, meanwhile, emphasized the importance of self-sufficiency and economic independence at China’s latest party congress, raising new questions about the long-term growth prospects for Seoul’s largest trading partner and, in turn, the South Korean economy.
But the less markets are intertwined, the higher the risk of interstate conflict. Economic interdependence can serve as a preventative measure against this and boost peace and stability for export-dependent economies like South Korea, and the Yoon Suk-yeol administration should think carefully before severing trade relationships that ultimately benefit his country.

STEPPING BACK
China’s economic growth over the past four decades has generated absolute economic gains for all involved. All the while, China has boosted military spending proportionally to its economic growth and become increasingly assertive politically, economically and territorially. Its trade partners have become increasingly alarmed over Beijing’s uncompetitive trade laws and intellectual property theft.
Since 2015, Beijing’s “Made in China 2025” policy has aimed at making the country more self-sufficient while still increasing its share of the global market. U.S. business leaders and others now express concerns that China is no longer interested in market liberalization.

In 2018, the Trump administration tried to address the growing U.S.-China trade deficit with a turn to protectionism. Many of these measures have continued under Biden, and U.S. allies have been encouraged to join in. This process was facilitated by COVID-19, which laid bare both the importance and fragility of supply chains.
Under the Yoon administration, South Korea has increasingly been drawn into decoupling. Proponents argue that South Korea cannot rely on opaque, illiberal states such as China, which has already demonstrated its willingness to punish its partners when they step out of line. In 2016, Beijing blocked tourism, entertainment and other trade with South Korea after the Park Geun-hye administration agreed to host a U.S. missile defense system, costing the ROK billions in lost GDP.
South Korean Yoon Suk-yeol and Chinese President Xi Jinping holding a summit in Bali, Indonesia on Nov. 15, 2022 | Image: The Presidential Office

GRASS AIN’T GREENER
But pulling back from the Chinese market would pose real risks to South Korea’s economy and its national security. The PRC accounts for a quarter of South Korean exports, and even a partial decoupling could have disastrous consequences.
These include smaller trade flows, foreign investment, R&D cooperation, market access and people-to-people exchanges. South Korea would suffer from more expensive imports, short-term supply chain disruptions, lower competitiveness and a hit to its reputation as a free and open market economy.
Loss of diversification is another less commonly discussed downside of decoupling. Over 40% of South Korea’s GDP is generated by exporting goods and services, meaning that reducing dependency on the PRC would require de-diversifying South Korea’s revenue streams, making it more dependent on its remaining partners.

But in addition to economic challenges, decoupling likely also places South Korea and other states in a more precarious security situation. Giving states a stake in each other’s economy increases the cost of going to war, thereby decreasing the likelihood of conflict. Thus, dismantling economic interdependence with China would also eliminate a safeguard against conflict.
While bilateral trade flows alone are not enough to prevent conflict — see for example Japan’s trade restrictions on key tech materials to South Korea and the ROK’s subsequent boycott movement against Japanese goods in 2019 — interdependence does disincentivize conflict. Data on the frequency of armed conflicts before and after increased economic interdependence with China provides empirical evidence for this, too.


MUTALLY ASSURED PROSPERITY
Security experts have argued that economic interdependence between the U.S. and China is a key indicator suggesting the two powers will not go to war. America’s last major challenger, the Soviet Union, traded very little with the U.S., making the risk of conflict — direct or by proxy — much higher. South Korea and other middle powers have taken into account U.S.-China interdependence thus far, research shows, but if that precondition changes, so might other countries’ calculations.

Another way to frame the issue is that decoupling might make states less vulnerable to China’s economic predations while simultaneously increasing the risk of direct conflict. As China becomes less economically enmeshed with other states, it has less reason to consider economic costs and business interests that come with escalatory policies. On the other hand, China may already be set on decoupling regardless of what other states do.
None of this is to say that decision-makers should or should not pursue decoupling. Advocates of decoupling argue there are immense long-term economic costs and security risks of remaining enmeshed with China. They also point out that economic cooperation with like-minded partners (for instance between the U.S. and South Korea) can offset some of these costs.

But economic costs, security interests, supply-chain stability and the long-term health of global markets are all crucial considerations. None of the paths into the future come without risk. Whichever path nations take, they should not do so without these considerations in mind.
Edited by Arius Derr
www.nknews.org

Why decoupling from China creates economic and security risks for South Korea - KOREA PRO

In recent months, decoupling — or reducing dependence on other countries — has been a much-talked-about activity for South Korean lawmakers. The Chip 4 alliance, with which South Korea is now involved, is a prime example, as well as the continuation of Trump-era protectionism codified in the...
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Yoon warns of unprecedented response if N. Korea conducts nuclear test | Yonhap News Agency​


유청모

2 minutes


SEOUL, Nov. 29 (Yonhap) -- President Yoon Suk-yeol said any new nuclear test by North Korea will be met with an international response "not seen in the past" and called on China to play a greater role to deter the North's provocations.
Yoon made the remarks in an interview with Reuters, released Tuesday, amid growing concerns the North could conduct its seventh nuclear test after a series of recent missile launches.
Should the North forge ahead with a test, Yoon vowed a response "not seen in the past" by South Korea and its partners.
"It would be extremely unwise for North Korea to conduct a seventh nuclear test," Yoon was quoted as saying in the interview.
"We must respond consistently, and in lockstep with each other," Yoon said, blaming a lack of consistency in the international response for the failure of three decades of North Korea policy.
Regarding Pyongyang's increased missile provocations, Yoon said China not only has the responsibility but the capability to influence North Korea's behavior.
"China can and must exercise influence to stop North Korea from developing weapons. What is sure is that China has the capability to influence North Korea, and China has the responsibility to engage in the process," Yoon said.
Pyongyang has fired 63 ballistic missiles this year, including 10 intercontinental ballistic missiles, which is 2.5 times more than its previous annual record of 25, according to U.S. officials.
President Yoon Suk-yeol (2nd from L) inspects a multipurpose unmanned vehicle during a visit to Hyundai Rotem Co. in Changwon, 400 kilometers south of Seoul, on Nov. 24, 2022. (Yonhap)

President Yoon Suk-yeol (2nd from L) inspects a multipurpose unmanned vehicle during a visit to Hyundai Rotem Co. in Changwon, 400 kilometers south of Seoul, on Nov. 24, 2022. (Yonhap)Yoon warns of unprecedented response if N. Korea conducts nuclear test | Yonhap News Agency
 
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China says it drove away U.S. cruiser near Spratly Islands​


2 minute readNovember 28, 20229:36 PM CSTLast Updated 2 hours ago

2 minutes


BEIJING, Nov 29 (Reuters) - China's military said on Tuesday it drove away a U.S. guided-missile cruiser that "illegally intruded" into waters near the South China Sea's Spratly Islands.
"The actions of the U.S. military seriously violated China's sovereignty and security," said Tian Junli, spokesman for the Southern Theatre Command of the People's Liberation Army.
The ship in question, the USS Chancellorsville guided missile cruiser, had recently sailed through the Taiwain Strait.

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There was no immediate comment from the U.S. military.
Tian said the U.S. cruiser's intrusion showed that the United States was a "security risk maker" in the South China Sea and "is another iron-clad proof of its hegemony in the navigation and militarization of the South China Sea".
China's military said its troops would remain on high alert, the Southern Theatre Command said on its WeChat social media account.
China claims nearly all of the South China Sea and it has become one of many flashpoints in the testy relationship between it and the United States.
The United States rejects what it calls China's unlawful territorial claims in the resource-rich waters.
U.S. warships have passed through the South China Sea with increasing frequency in recent years, in a show of force against the Chinese claims.
www.reuters.com

China says it drove away U.S. cruiser near Spratly Islands

China's military said on Tuesday it drove away a U.S. guided-missile cruiser that "illegally intruded" into waters near the South China Sea's Spratly Islands.
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Kishida orders funds to raise Japan's defense budget to 2% of GDP​


KYODO NEWS

2-3 minutes


Prime Minister Fumio Kishida on Monday instructed his defense and finance ministers to secure funds to increase Japan's defense budget to 2 percent of gross domestic product in fiscal 2027.
Japan has long capped its annual defense spending at about 1 percent of GDP, or over 5 trillion yen ($36 billion). The Defense Ministry has said 48 trillion yen will be required for the next five years to improve the country's defense capabilities amid China's growing military strength and North Korea's missile development.
cropped_image_l.jpg

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida (2nd from L) visits the Ground Self-Defense Force's Asaka base straddling Tokyo and Saitama Prefecture on Nov. 27, 2021. (Pool photo) (Kyodo) ==Kyodo
"The defense budget needs to be urgently increased within five years," Kishida was quoted by Defense Minister Yasukazu Hamada as saying at their meeting. "We need to secure necessary funds swiftly...instead of saying we could not do so due to the lack of financial resources."
The government will review expenditures and revenues at the same time and decide next month on measures to secure necessary funds, Kishida also said.

Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki also attended the meeting and told reporters, "We do not have a lot of time left, but I will continue to discuss it with the defense minister."

The government is set to update the National Security Strategy, its long-term diplomacy and security policy guideline, and compile the initial budget for fiscal 2023, which starts in April, by year-end.
The ruling Liberal Democratic Party has proposed that the government pledge in the updated strategy to double the nation's defense spending to 2 percent or more of GDP, a level on par with North Atlantic Treaty Organization member states, over the next five years.
Earlier on Monday, Kishida told a Budget Committee session in the House of Representatives that he will consider using funds set aside for countermeasures against the coronavirus once the pandemic settles down.
english.kyodonews.net

Kishida orders funds to raise Japan's defense budget to 2% of GDP

Prime Minister Fumio Kishida on Nov. 28 instructed his defense and finance ministers to secure funds to increase Japan's defense budget to 2 percent of gross domestic product in fiscal 2027.
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U.S. working to improve early warning system against N. Korean missile launches: U.S. commander | Yonhap News Agency​


변덕근

2-3 minutes


WASHINGTON, Nov. 29 (Yonhap) -- The United States is working to further improve its missile warning system, the commander of U.S. Space Command said Tuesday, following a barrage of North Korean missile tests that included multiple intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) launches.
"We are looking at how we integrate a sensor architecture that gives us as much warning as possible in terms of any type of missile activity out of North Korea," Gen. James Dickinson said in a webinar hosted by the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, a Washington-based research organization.
Gen. James Dickinson, commander of U.S. Space Command, is seen speaking in a webinar hosted by the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, a nonpartisan research organization based in Washington, on Nov. 29, 2022 in this captured image. (Yonhap)

Gen. James Dickinson, commander of U.S. Space Command, is seen speaking in a webinar hosted by the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, a nonpartisan research organization based in Washington, on Nov. 29, 2022 in this captured image. (Yonhap)
Dickinson said the Space Command is currently working to integrate existing U.S. assets into "an architecture where we can provide both the United States and our allies and partners as much advanced warning as possible," adding, "We are also looking at how we can incorporate commercial sensors in the same respect."
His remarks come after a recent series of North Korean missile launches.
Pyongyang fired over 30 ballistic missiles since late September, also conducting its 10th ICBM test of the year on Nov. 18.
Since the start of the year, the North launched an annual record of 63 ballistic missiles, far exceeding the previous record of 25 in 2019.
The U.S. Space Force established its first regional component command at U.S. Indo-Pacific Command last week, a move apparently aimed at enhancing the U.S.' missile defense capabilities in the region.
Gen. Dickinson noted there had already existed a "coordination relationship" between the Space Force and INDOPACOM even before the establishment of the Space Force Indo-Pacific Command, but said the relationship will now mature more.
en.yna.co.kr

U.S. working to improve early warning system against N. Korean missile launches: U.S. commander | Yonhap News Agency

By Byun Duk-kun WASHINGTON, Nov. 29 (Yonhap) -- The United States is working to further ...
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Pentagon: China to more than triple its nuclear arsenal by 2035​


By Lara Seligman 11/29/2022 11:53 AM EST Link Copied

5-7 minutes


Visitors tour past Chinese military vehicles carrying the Dong Feng 41 and DF-17 ballistic missiles at an exhibition in Beijing, Wednesday, Oct. 12, 2022. | Andy Wong/AP Photo
China is continuing to steadily expand its nuclear arsenal and could have 1,500 warheads by 2035, according to a new Defense Department study released on Tuesday.
Beijing’s current nuclear stockpile has surpassed 400 warheads, the Pentagon warned in its annual report to Congress on China’s military might. By 2035, officials expect the People’s Liberation Army to complete the modernization of its military forces.
The latest numbers show that China is on pace with the recent Pentagon estimates, according to a senior DoD official, who requested anonymity to discuss the report ahead of its release. As of January, the independent Stockholm International Peace Research Institute estimated that China had 350 nuclear warheads; last year, DoD estimated that China would reach 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030.

While the latest report does not reflect an acceleration from last year’s pace of growth, China’s nuclear buildup over the past few years is a “dramatic acceleration” from the mid-2000s, the official said.
“This is an accelerating trend,” the official said. “We see that with the buildout of the silo fields, the creation of a nuclear triad, what they’re doing with their sea bases and air components as well as the silos and their land mobile forces.”
Beijing’s arsenal is still a fraction of the size of Russia’s and the United States’, which together account for 90 percent of the world’s nuclear weapons. As of January, Russia led the pack with 5,977 nuclear warheads; the United States was a close second with 5,428, according to SIPRI.

Washington’s and Moscow’s nuclear forces are limited by the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, which the two countries agreed in 2021 to extend for five years. Russia on Monday postponed scheduled arms control talks with the United States set to take place this week in Cairo, with neither side giving a reason.
But China has refused to join the talks, arguing that Russia’s and the United States’ arsenals are much larger than its own and the two nuclear superpowers’ have primary responsibility for arms control. But Beijing’s expansion “raises some questions about their intent,” the senior DoD official said.

The buildup “does raise questions about whether they are shifting away” from their previously stated strategy of having “the minimum number of nuclear weapons required for the PRC’s national security,” the official said.
In 2021, China’s rocket forces launched roughly 135 ballistic missiles for testing and training — more than the rest of the world, according to the report. That same year, China also continued building three solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missile silo fields, which collectively contain at least 300 new silos.
China is also building up its space and counterspace capabilities, according to the report, developing a range of technologies including kinetic-kill missiles, ground-based lasers and orbiting space robots.

“The PLA views space operations as a means to deter and counter third-party intervention during a regional military conflict,” the report states. “Moreover, PRC defense academies suggest that reconnaissance, communication, navigation, and early warning satellites could be among the target of attacks designed to ‘blind and deafen the enemy.’”
DoD does not have a new assessment of China’s timeline for any potential invasion of Taiwan after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to the island sparked a crisis this summer. DoD believes China will have the capability to invade Taiwan by 2027, officials have said.

However, DoD did note Beijing’s increasingly “provocative and destabilizing actions in and around Taiwan” after the speaker’s visit, including increased flights into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone, more crossings of the Taiwan Strait center line, and also conducting exercises designed to replicate an invasion, the official said.
“What we do see is the PRC establishing a new normal level of military activity,” the official said, noting that this behavior “appears to be intended to intimidate or wear down Taiwan.”

“Although again I don’t see any kind of imminent indications of an invasion, we are definitely very focused on this level of more intimidating and coercive behavior.”
U.S. officials have discussed China’s nuclear capabilities with NATO allies, including in a series of meetings in October, according to a readout of one of the meetings obtained by POLITICO.
Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg addressed Beijing’s expanding nuclear arsenal in one of the meetings, saying the world would soon face two “near-peer” nuclear competitors — Russia and China — for the first time in its history, according to the readout.

Stoltenberg said China is evolving its nuclear deterrence strategy and broadening the role of atomic weapons in its military arsenal. Other NATO allies present at the meeting, including Canada, the United Kingdom and the Netherlands, described Beijing’s nuclear capabilities as a challenge for the alliance. Representatives from Canada underscored the need to engage Beijing in future arms control negotiations.
Erin Banco contributed to this report.
www.politico.com

Pentagon: China to more than triple its nuclear arsenal by 2035

Yet the total is still a fraction of America’s and Russia’s stockpiles.
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