ALERT The Winds of War Blow in Korea and The Far East

jward

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Global: MilitaryInfo
@Global_Mil_Info


South Korean and U.S. intelligence authorities are keeping a close eye on North Korea - no unusual activities have been detected yet. North Korea did not answer South Korea's phone calls via cross-border communication lines for the third straight day.
 

Housecarl

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North Korea Threatens Of 'Security Crisis' Over U.S.-South Korea Military Drills

August 12, 20214:09 PM ET

AILSA CHANG, HOST:


The U.S. and South Korea begin joint military exercises next week. North Korea has warned that if they do, the allies will face a security crisis. Seoul and Washington are watching for signs of military provocations from the North. And as NPR's Anthony Kuhn reports, Pyongyang has some new additions to its arsenal.


ANTHONY KUHN, BYLINE: In an apparent protest against the exercises, North Korea on Tuesday stopped answering hotlines between the two Koreas that were reconnected only two weeks ago after a more than yearlong silence. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un's sister, Kim Yo Jong, warned that they would have to respond to the drills by strengthening their own military, including their nuclear arsenal.


(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)


UNIDENTIFIED GROUP: (Chanting in Korean).


KUHN: In January, North Korea rolled some of its newest military hardware through Pyongyang's Kim Il Sung Square in a nighttime parade. The hardware appeared to include the country's newest and biggest submarine-launched ballistic missile, or SLBM. The country last test fired an earlier model in 2019. Shin Jong-Woo is a senior analyst at the Seoul-based Korea Defense and Security Forum think tank.


SHIN JONG-WOO: (Through interpreter) If you look at the history, the weapons North Korea has tested have first been revealed in military parades. So we believe that North Korea will soon test launch these weapons.


KUHN: Shin says North Korea has also been working on a new submarine based on an old Soviet design. It could potentially launch nuclear armed missiles at U.S. bases as far away as Guam or even the continental U.S. if the sub can make it farther East into the Pacific. He adds that being able to launch missiles from both land and sea would make the North's nuclear arsenal more likely to survive an enemy attack.


SHIN: (Through interpreter) Even if we destroy all their ground launchers, North Korea will still have nuclear weapons available. That's why we call SLBMs a retaliation strategy which can be used to deter the U.S. and South Korean militaries.


KUHN: But North Korea doesn't have to test launch any missiles for them to have a political effect, says Paul Choi, principal of StratWays Group, a Seoul-based consultancy and a former South Korean military officer.


PAUL CHOI: North Korea is trying to complicate alliance decision-making at the strategic and political level. I think it's trying to drive wedges between the United States and South Korea, to decouple the alliance.


KUHN: Choi says Kim has made it clear he intends to develop tactical nuclear weapons for the battlefield. He says Kim could first use them or threaten to use them.


CHOI: But then argue, we'll stop here. Let's end the fight. But if you decide to continue, we still have nuclear weapons that we can launch at Seattle, Wash., or New York.


KUHN: This raises the possibility that the U.S. might choose to sacrifice South Korea in order to save the U.S. homeland. And that leaves South Korea no choice, Choi argues, but to keep developing its own weapons and military capabilities independent of the U.S. But he denies that this implies a break from the alliance.


CHOI: Or that South Korea would act irresponsibly or recklessly in a proactive fashion to attack North Korea and thereby increasing instability between the two Koreas.


KUHN: In June, Kim Jong Un told his country to prepare for both dialogue and confrontation with the U.S. For now, experts remain divided about whether North Korea will opt to return to the negotiating table or to the missile launcher, whether based on land or at sea. Anthony Kuhn, NPR News, Seoul.
 

Housecarl

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Japan calls on Australia to lead resistance to China’s regional sway
Eryk Bagshaw

By Eryk Bagshaw
August 12, 2021 — 4.37am

Japan’s Defence Minister has warned China is trying to change the status quo in the region by force and has called on Australia and other allies to step up to ensure Beijing’s dominance is not inevitable.

In some of his strongest comments on the deteriorating security situation across the Indo-Pacific, Nobuo Kishi said the shifting power balance between the US and China “has become very conspicuous” while a military battle over Taiwan had “skewed greatly in favour of China”.
Japanese Defence Minister Nobuo Kishi.

Japanese Defence Minister Nobuo Kishi.Credit:Viola Kam

“Japan’s defence policy is not targeted at any specific nation. But given that the security environment surrounding Japan is getting even harsher, we must build a structure where we can protect ourselves,” Kishi told The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age in an interview in his office at the Defence Ministry in Tokyo.

“[China] is trying to change the status quo unilaterally backed by force and coercion. And they’re trying to make it into a fait accompli.”

The 62-year-old younger brother of former prime minister Shinzo Abe said it was up to the Japanese Parliament to decide if the country needed to change its pacifist constitution to meet its security needs.

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“For us to be able to respond to those challenges, what we must do is enhance our defence capabilities on our own,” he said.

“There could be a constitutional debate in [autumn] this year in the national Diet, but this is a matter for the Diet. I will refrain from making such comments.”

Liberal Democratic Party MPs have spent decades arguing for changes to the constitution that would give its self-defence forces greater power to join conflicts in which there is a collective interest. A legislative reinterpretation in 2014 allowed Japan’s military to defend other allies if war was declared upon them, but Abe left office last year without a constitutional legacy and the debate has since been overshadowed by the coronavirus and the Olympics.
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Kishi said Tokyo had been paying particularly close attention to the South China Sea and the East China Sea where it has disputed territories with China. He welcomed the arrival of the UK’s Carrier Strike Group and a German frigate in the region but said the military gap between China and Taiwan was growing “year by year”.

China regards the democratic island of Taiwan as a breakaway province that must be united with the mainland by 2049. In a show of force, Beijing has flown more than 300 warplanes towards its neighbour over the past 12 months.

“The defence stability of Taiwan is very important, not just for Japan’s security, but for the stability of the world as well,” said Kishi.







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A US aircraft-carrier group has entered the South China Sea just as rising tensions between China and Taiwan are causing concern in Washington.

The former executive at Japanese corporate giant Sumitomo, who lived in Melbourne in the early 2000s, said he was counting on Australia to take a leadership role in south-east Asia and the Pacific to counter the influence of China’s Belt and Road initiative.

The Free and Open Indo-Pacific is the Japan-led alternative to the Belt and Road. It has struggled since 2016 to get global traction for its program of quality infrastructure including ports, railways, roads, energy and technology, but got a boost when it was embraced by US President Joe Biden in March.
“The defence stability of Taiwan is very important, not just for Japan’s security, but for the stability of the world as well.”
So far, Japan has done most of the spending and invested more than $258 billion across Thailand, Indonesia, Vietnam and Malaysia.

Tokyo was concerned by a lack of funding for south-east Asia in last year’s Australian federal budget as China escalated its vaccine, infrastructure and economic diplomacy across the region. Canberra has since committed $500 million to ASEAN and a $1.5 billion budget support loan to Indonesia.
Japanese Defence Minister Nobuo Kishi being interviewed in his office in Tokyo.

Japanese Defence Minister Nobuo Kishi being interviewed in his office in Tokyo. Credit:Viola Kam

“South-east Asia is an area where we have critical feelings,” said Kishi. “Australia is quite influential in the south-east Asian region as well as over the Pacific Islands.

“So, I would like to expect leadership to be demonstrated by Australia in promoting this vision of a Free and Open Indo-Pacific,” he said, referring to the Japan-led scheme.

Australia has not had any ministerial contact with Beijing for more than 18 months after a series of public disputes over national security, human rights and the coronavirus.

Kishi said the best way to have an honest dialogue with Beijing was to do so directly in private meetings.

“We make use of summit meetings as well as ministerial-level meetings to convey to them frankly what our concerns are one by one and ask them to take concrete action,” he said.

“We have conveyed to them our strong concerns about their behaviour. But at the same time we have a long-standing economic relationship as well as a cultural one on top of military developments.”
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Japan’s opposition leader Yukio Edano reaffirmed his bipartisan approach support for Australia in its ongoing dispute with China in a separate interview with this masthead last week.

Kishi said his older brother Abe, Japan’s longest serving prime minister, had returned to full health after resigning from the top job last year to seek treatment for ulcerative colitis.

“He was convalescing, and now has no particular health problems,” he said. “He is currently back in his political activities.”

The comments are likely to fuel speculation over the future of current prime minister Yoshihide Suga who faces approval ratings in the low 30s despite Japan delivering an Olympics in the middle of a pandemic and a record gold medal haul.
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“The number one priority or the challenge for the Suga government now is COVID-19 and restoring the economy back,” said Kishi.

A federal election is due by October and the country is grappling to get more than 15,000 coronavirus cases a day under control, despite having less than 500 cases within the Olympic bubble.

“There have been a variety of views in Japan. With this increase in the number of infection cases, there are many people who are critical of the Olympic Games being hosted in Japan,” said Kishi.

“But by organising a safe Olympic Games, we hope that this could lead to people giving credit to the Japanese government.“

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Housecarl

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Hummm.....

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Commentary
Responding to China’s Unending Grey-Zone Prodding
Dr Peter Layton
11 August 2021
6 Minute Read


The best way to counter China’s grey-zone activities may be a measured forward-planning approach that proceeds step-by-step.

China remains hard at work using its innovative grey-zone tactics to further its ceaseless quest for strategic advantage over its neighbours. In March it sent some 220 fishing vessels to anchor in neat rows and crowd out Whitsun Reef, a territory claimed by the Philippines. In June, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Air Force conducted a radio-silent formation flight of 16 strategic air transport aircraft across the South China Sea to within around 60 nautical miles north of the East Malaysian coast, sparking an intercept by two Royal Malaysian Air Force Hawk aircraft. More worryingly, in June 2020, as part of its salami-slicing grey-zone tactics on the India–China border, the PLA killed some 20 Indian soldiers.

In a new publication from Canberra’s Air and Space Power Centre, I examine Chinese grey-zone activities and possible responses in some detail. In general, grey-zone activities involve purposefully pursuing political objectives through carefully designed operations; moving cautiously towards objectives rather than seeking decisive results quickly; acting to remain below key escalatory thresholds so as to avoid war; and using all instruments of national power, particularly non-military and non-kinetic tools.

These characteristics mean the grey zone is not the same as hybrid war. The latter is – as the name suggests – a type of warfare, which deliberately uses armed violence to try to conclusively win a campaign, as exemplified by Russia’s involvements in Ukraine, Syria and Libya. Some may also observe that Russia’s hybrid warfare aims for negative outcomes, such as stopping Ukraine joining the EU or NATO, the Assad regime in Syria being overthrown or Libya’s disruptive warlord Khalifa Haftar becoming irrelevant.

In contrast, Chinese grey-zone activities do not use armed violence; the Indian soldiers killed in June 2020 were engaged in a physical altercation that featured wooden clubs and thrown stones. Moreover, China has more positive aims – at least from its point of view – in seeking to gradually gain territory on its periphery without resorting to armed conflict. Beyond this, grey-zone activities aim to gain strategic advantage, in the sense that others will modify their behaviour and actions by taking account of China’s interests.

In broad terms, China uses the grey zone while Russia employs hybrid warfare; the two techniques and countries should not be conflated.

A Carefully Controlled Approach
Given the nature of the grey zone, such actions do not just happen. They are implemented in a well-designed campaign plan approved and controlled by the highest levels of the Communist Party of China and the PLA. Grey-zone actions are not those of tactical commanders freelancing.

Importantly, grey-zone operations are designed to avoid military escalation. This requires the operations to be tightly controlled at the tactical level by senior leaders. Grey-zone activities are, in essence, carefully scripted brinkmanship.

Accordingly, grey-zone operations are appropriate only for a time of resilient peace that is able to absorb a grey-zone shock and bounce back, not a fragile peace that might suddenly shatter and start a war. If the peace is tenuous with all sides postured and ready to fight, grey-zone operations will be too risky to undertake. The implication is that targets of grey-zone actions need to be cooperative; they should be invested in keeping the peace, not wishing to break it. Countries seeking to maintain the status quo are particularly vulnerable to such self-deterrence.

Colourful Responses
The response to China’s grey-zone activities may need to be symmetrical, in the sense of also being incremental and slowly nibbling away at the edges. A measured forward-planning approach that proceeds step-by-step into the future might be apposite. In contrast, conventional planning works backward from an identified end state.

A step-by-step approach could proceed carefully and evolve along the way so as to avoid triggering a military response from China. The Party’s leaders would then adjust to each step and become accustomed to the new normal before the next one develops. This incremental approach means each individual pushback does not appear dangerously threatening or escalatory as it is undertaken.

In thinking about implementing a measured forward-planning approach, some broad issues might be useful to consider.
First, grey-zone actions occur within a deliberately protracted campaign. China’s continuing grey-zone activities in the East China Sea began in earnest around 2012, with air incursions sharply rising from a few dozen annually to several hundred today. Similarly, in the South China Sea, large-scale island construction started in 2013 together with the steadily increasing use of what PLA Rear Admiral Zhang Zhaozhong calls a ‘cabbage strategy’, where a coral reef or atoll is surrounded by Chinese ships – ‘wrapped layer by layer like a cabbage’ – so that other countries’ ships are progressively prevented from gaining access.

Responses to such campaigns may need to be similarly lengthy. A counter-campaign may last years, produce intermittent advances and repeated reversals, and deliver no decisive outcomes. Such drawn-out operations would be taxing for all, China included.

Second, an important part of a successful grey-zone counter is the capability to respond quickly to new developments. Allowing a new Chinese grey-zone step to become the accepted new normal may make reversing it, or even registering disapproval, problematic. However, responding in a timely manner means each country involved needs high-quality crisis management mechanisms. The UK has long experience in such matters, including in developing them using pre-crisis wargaming and scenario exercising. Such expertise may be of particular value for ASEAN states with South China Sea interests: Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei and Indonesia. China’s increasing assertiveness makes progressively more serious incidents involving the ASEAN states’ civilian entities and military forces more likely in the future. Existing national crisis management mechanisms could be stress-tested and continually improved to stay in front of the evolution of Chinese grey-zone techniques.

Third, high-quality intelligence is essential. This means not only quantitative intelligence about Chinese military and civilian participants, but also qualitative intelligence about each of the various actors, so as to understand how they might react. For this, first-rate intelligence resources, collection systems and analysts are essential. As the paper discusses, nanosats may be particularly useful; the UK has world-class expertise in this emerging field.

Last, selective institution building among regional participants could usefully develop mechanisms for resolving unexpected grey-zone crises. These may feature military-to-military deconfliction hotlines to help avoid unwanted escalation and accidents. The UK, as a key Five Power Defence Arrangements (FPDA) country, could take the initiative to suggest talks with China to devise South China Sea risk management procedures and processes. Importantly, the FPDA not only has multilateral heft, but in not representing any particular country would not be perceived as unintentionally legitimising China’s South China Sea claims by discussing airspace safety matters with it.

China’s grey-zone activities grind remorselessly on, but in so doing they educate all about the grey zone’s characteristics, while simultaneously generating pushback. In relying on a resilient peace, grey-zone operations are both a feature of our time and a product of it. The UK, while remote to the Indo-Pacific centres of grey-zone activity, could make some useful contributions to their resolution.

The views expressed in this Commentary are the author’s, and do not represent those of RUSI or any other institution.
 

Housecarl

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Posted for fair use.....

Australia and US partner to spearhead precision strike missile capability

Defense News August 2021 Global Security army industry
POSTED ON FRIDAY, 13 AUGUST 2021 11:00

The Australian Defence Force and the United States Armed Forces will partner to develop a new precision missile capability to further interoperability and modernise both militaries.

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The surface-to-surface, all weather, precision-strike guided missile will be capable of destroying, neutralising and suppressing diverse targets at ranges from 70 to over 400 kilometres. Pictured here, an M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System launches a Precision Strike Missile on Dec. 10, 2019 (Picture source: White Sands Missile Range)
Australia’s participation in the US led Precision Strike Missile co-development program contributes to both nations’ strategic objectives, delivering on a key aspect of Australia’s 2020 Defence Strategic Update. Australia has contributed $70 million to the $907 million Precision Strike Missile program (PrSM) to advance long-range precision fire capabilities of Australian and US militaries.

The surface-to-surface, all weather, precision-strike guided missile will be capable of destroying, neutralising and suppressing diverse targets at ranges from 70 to over 400 kilometres.

A recent Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) between the Australian Army and the US Military cements this collaboration, with a commitment to increasing the lethality, range and target engagement of the baseline missile in development The MOU opens the door for future Australian industry engagement with potential domestic component manufacture, maintenance, repair, weapon surveillance and research.

Signatory to the MOU, US Army’s Defense Exports and Cooperation, Deputy Assistant Secretary Elizabeth Wilson, said the agreement formalises one of the US military’s largest cooperative acquisition programs entered into with a partner nation.

“Australia’s cooperation with the PrSM compliments the U.S. presence in the Indo-Pacific Command area of responsibility; reinforces our dedication to allies in the Indo-Pacific; and sets a path forward for U.S. Army Long Range Precision Fires in the region.”

The Australian Army’s Head of Land Capability Major General Simon Stuart, said the precision strike guided missile will provide the Joint Force Commander with long range and deep strike capability from the Land.

“Increment 2 of the program, committed under the MOU, will seek to incorporate technology that allows ships and air-defence systems to be engaged,” MAJGEN Stuart said.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
With the unfolding FUBAR in Afghanistan, I can only imagine the cabinet level conversations occurring in Seoul, Tokyo, Taipei, Hanoi and other regional capitals.....
 

jward

passin' thru
13 August 2021

Australia, US formalise co-operation on Precision Strike Missile programme

by Jon Grevatt




Australia and the United States have signed an agreement to formalise co-operation on precision-strike capability.


The Australian Department of Defence (DoD) said on 12 August that the recently signed memorandum of understanding (MOU) facilitates Australian Army participation in the US Army's Precision Strike Missile (PrSM) system.


An image of the inaugural flight of Lockheed Martin's PrSM prototype in December 2019. (US Army)

An image of the inaugural flight of Lockheed Martin's PrSM prototype in December 2019. (US Army)

Under the accord, Australia has contributed USD54 million to the PrSM project, with a commitment, said the DoD, to “increase the lethality, range and target engagement of the baseline missile in development”.

Major General Simon Stuart, head of land capability in the Australian Army, said the agreement supports PrSM development under Increment 2 of the programme aimed at incorporating technologies allowing ships and air-defence systems to be engaged with the system.

The US Army said the MOU enables regular technical meetings between the US and Australia on design, development, and testing under PrSM Increment 2 as well as planning for future industrial and technology co-operation between the two countries.

It added that the agreement supports US presence in the Indo-Pacific and provides an opportunity to develop US Army long-range precision fires capability in the region.

The US Army's PrSM project is led by Lockheed Martin. To meet the requirement the company is developing a precision-strike missile, which it says has a range of between 60 km and 499 km.

In flight tests in May 2021, a PrSM prototype flew about 400 km to a target site at White Sands Missile Range, New Mexico. The weapon was launched with a Lockheed Martin M142 High-Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS).

 

northern watch

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China Touts ‘U.S. Humiliation’ in Afghanistan in Warning to Taiwan
China poised to fill vacuum in Afghanistan as United States flees Taliban takeover

China-Taiwan-Philippines

Hypothetical ways China could attack Taiwan and the Philippines

Adam Kredo
Free Beacon
August 16, 2021 4:00 pm

China says "U.S. humiliation" in Afghanistan should be a warning sign to Taiwan and other U.S allies in the region that the American military "won't come to help" if war breaks out in the future.

As Taliban militants reclaim control of war-torn Afghanistan after the Biden administration's decision to remove all U.S. troops from the country, China is stepping in to fill the power vacuum. Communist Party officials have been talking to Taliban leaders, and China's embassy in Afghanistan is operating normally, even as the United States conducts an emergency evacuation of its personnel in the country.

Chinese state-controlled media and Communist Party loyalists gloated on Sunday over America's "humiliation" as the Taliban marched into the Afghan capital, Kabul, forcing U.S.-backed president Ashraf Ghani to flee the country while his government crumbled. China is now offering to fund post-war construction efforts in Afghanistan as part of its Belt and Road Initiative, a sweeping Communist Party infrastructure project that has helped the CCP gain a foothold in many countries across the globe.

The catastrophe in Afghanistan provides China another opportunity to subvert U.S influence and power in critical regions such as the Middle East. While the Biden administration scrambles to secure the safety of Americans stationed in the country, China is exploiting the situation to send a warning to its regional enemies, primarily Taiwan. The CCP is also promoting Afghanistan as an example of American decline across the world: "The US lost. It was a no-brainer," tweeted Chen Weihua, editor of the Communist-controlled China Daily, on Monday.

"From what happened in Afghanistan, those in Taiwan should perceive that once a war breaks out in the Straits, the island's defense will collapse in hours and U.S. military won't come to help," the Global Times, an official CCP mouthpiece, tweeted on Monday. "As a result, the [Democratic Progressive Party of Taiwan] will quickly surrender."

China is not the only anti-American regime that sees the situation in Afghanistan as an opportunity to erode American influence in the region. Iran and Russia already say they will increase their influence in the country and work with the Taliban, which seized the presidential palace on Monday afternoon in its latest victory in the capital.

The Biden administration on Friday sent 3,000 American troops back into Afghanistan to help evacuate Americans stranded in the country—a decision that many critics likened to the U.S. evacuation from Saigon, Vietnam, in 1979.

Meanwhile, the "Chinese Embassy in Afghanistan is operating normally," Chinese officials reported on Monday. "The principle of non-interference in domestic affairs enables China to maintain the confidence that it need not close its embassy in Kabul which still functions normally in this special, chaotic time."

While it remains unclear how active China will be in Afghanistan in the coming months, Beijing's early outreach to the Taliban and offer to help rebuild Afghanistan could signal that the CCP sees value in replacing the United States as a leading player in the country.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke on Monday afternoon with Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi "about developments in Afghanistan, including the security situation and our respective efforts to bring U.S. and [Chinese] citizens to safety."

China Touts ‘U.S. Humiliation’ in Afghanistan in Warning to Taiwan (freebeacon.com)
 

northern watch

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China's Xi Eyes Return to Communist Party Roots Amid Private-Sector Crackdown; President is signaling plans to more assertively promote social equality, with the catchphrase ‘common prosperity' appearing everywhere
Wednesday, August 18, 2021, 8:26 AM ET
Wall Street Journal
By Keith Zhai and Stella Yifan Xie

China gave priority to economic growth for most of the past 40 years. Now, Xi Jinping is signaling plans to more assertively promote social equality, as he tries to solidify popular support for continued Communist Party rule.

The push is captured by a catchphrase, “common prosperity,” now appearing everywhere in China, including in public speeches, state-owned media and schools—and in comments from newly chastened business tycoons like Jack Ma.

Like many Communist Party slogans, details remain vague. But officials and analysts who have tracked the phrase’s use say it is meant to convey the idea that leaders are returning to the party’s original ambitions to empower workers and the disadvantaged, and will limit gains of the capitalist class when necessary to address social inequities.

In a major meeting on financial and economic affairs Tuesday, President Xi described the wider goal of “common prosperity” as an “essential requirement of socialism.”

The government needs to “encourage high-income people and enterprises to give back to society more,” and “create opportunities for more people to become rich,” state-run Xinhua News Agency cited an official report of the meeting as saying.

The new policy priority is a factor in China’s recent clampdowns on powerful technology companies and other businesses whose growth and market clout are seen as contributing to social divides, experts and industry insiders say. The moves include fines for companies like Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. for antitrust failings, and a declaration that after-school tuition should become a not-for-profit industry to reduce families’ education costs.

The government’s messaging could also mean more rule changes are coming in areas such as healthcare, pensions and social welfare, they say.

The push builds on earlier announcements by Chinese leaders, who have been trying to focus more on quality of growth as they address downsides of rapid development like environmental pollution. When Beijing unveiled a new five-year plan this year in the midst of the Covid-19 crisis, it abandoned the long-term tradition of setting a numerical gross domestic product target, a sign it wants to play down emphasis on growth for growth’s sake.

“Xi Jinping is seeking to rebrand the Communist Party’s image domestically and internationally” by reducing income gaps and shifting to higher-quality development, said Bill Bikales, a former senior economist for the United Nations in China. “He wants this to demonstrate that socialism is better than Western capitalism in caring for all the population.”

How wealth is distributed has always preoccupied the Party, though its views have morphed over the years. Mao Zedong once branded capitalists as enemies of the Chinese people. In the 1980s, Deng Xiaoping said it was OK to “let some people get rich first” as China embraced market reforms, though he also highlighted the need for wealth to be spread across society eventually.

Unequal wealth distribution is now a major concern. While living standards have risen dramatically in China, the country’s Gini-coefficient, a measure of inequality, widened to 70.4 in 2020 from 59.9 in 2000, making China one of the world’s most unequal major economies, according to data from Credit Suisse.

Premier Li Keqiang made a stir last year when he revealed that more than 600 million people, or over 40% of China’s population, had monthly income under $140, while many Chinese complain privately about the sway of rich business tycoons.

The phrase “common prosperity,” though not totally new, started appearing much more widely after China said last year that it had succeeded in eradicating extreme poverty, achieving a longstanding goal of becoming what it called a “moderately prosperous society.”

In a February speech celebrating that achievement, Mr. Xi highlighted reaching “common prosperity” as the next stage of China’s development.

Around that time, Mr. Ma, co-founder of Alibaba and fintech giant Ant Group, made his first public appearance after authorities shut down Ant’s planned initial public offering, and said it was entrepreneurs’ responsibility to “work hard for rural revitalization and common prosperity.”

In June, Mr. Xi picked eastern Zhejiang province, where he once served as a top leader, as a “common prosperity” pilot zone. Under the plan, the province aims to lift average per capita disposable income to 75,000 yuan(US$11,600) by 2025, from around 52,000 yuan in 2020.

The plan also pledges to narrow the gulf between rich and poor and reform income allocation by adjusting “excessively high income,” cracking down on illegal gains and encouraging businesspeople to expand philanthropy.

Yuan Jiajun, Zhejiang’s party boss, said the province is trying to showcase to the rest of the country that it is possible to close gaps between regions and in people’s incomes. He also tried to reassure the business community that the program isn’t about “kill the rich and help the poor,” according to state media.

Investment bankers, bloggers and Chinese entrepreneurs have zeroed in on the “common prosperity” theme, seeking to explain its implications.

In a 50-plus page report released earlier this month, Morgan Stanley economists noted that China’s new emphasis on “getting rich together,” or “common prosperity,” would likely mean further regulatory headwinds for companies in sectors associated with rising social inequality, and more support for businesses linked to healthcare and green energy.

“Compared with just five years ago, China’s leadership is paying a lot more attention to social equality,” said Larry Hu, chief China economist at Macquarie Group. In addition to cracking down on tech companies like Ant, which regulators accused of luring young people into debt traps, he said Beijing’s priorities now include diverting more financial support to poorer regions and taming property prices.

Gaming and social-messaging company Tencent Holdings Ltd. said in April that it would spend $7.7 billion toward curing societal ills and lifting China’s countryside out of poverty. More recently, Meituan founder Wang Xing donated a $2.3 billion stake in the Chinese food-delivery giant to his own philanthropic foundation to fund education and science.

Mr. Xi was already envisioning a shift toward more emphasis on social equality before he took power in 2012, as a once-a-decade power struggle within the party entered its final days, according to people familiar with his thinking.

The debate was expressed publicly through obscure talk about cake, a metaphor for China’s wealth, these people said.
Some officials argued for first making the cake bigger and then distributing it. Others, including Bo Xilai, a party chief in Chongqing who was seen as a contender for higher office before being sentenced to life imprisonment for corruption and abuse of power, insisted on first distributing the cake more equally before making it bigger.

Mr. Xi, who was vice president at the time, agreed with neither groups, the people said. He said that his goal was to both make a bigger cake while also distributing it equally and that one shouldn’t contradict the other.

More recently, China’s relatively strong recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic has given the leadership more flexibility to pursue its longstanding social goals, after addressing other priorities like corruption, experts say.

The end of Mr. Xi’s second term in office—and his expected push for a third term in a power reshuffle next year—may be adding some urgency to the “common prosperity” push, especially with growth now starting to slow.

“Xi is hoping to calm the public as the economy slows down and intends to appear concerned about popular livelihoods,” said Dorothy Solinger, a professor emerita of political science at the University of California, Irvine.

But “there are still many forgotten poor people in China who’ve been left out and will continue to be.”

Write to Keith Zhai at keith.zhai@wsj.com and Stella Yifan Xie at stella.xie@wsj.com

China’s Xi Eyes Return to Communist Party Roots Amid Private-Sector Crackdown - WSJ
 

vestige

Deceased
China's Xi Eyes Return to Communist Party Roots Amid Private-Sector Crackdown; President is signaling plans to more assertively promote social equality, with the catchphrase ‘common prosperity' appearing everywhere
Wednesday, August 18, 2021, 8:26 AM ET
Wall Street Journal
By Keith Zhai and Stella Yifan Xie

China gave priority to economic growth for most of the past 40 years. Now, Xi Jinping is signaling plans to more assertively promote social equality, as he tries to solidify popular support for continued Communist Party rule.

The push is captured by a catchphrase, “common prosperity,” now appearing everywhere in China, including in public speeches, state-owned media and schools—and in comments from newly chastened business tycoons like Jack Ma.

Like many Communist Party slogans, details remain vague. But officials and analysts who have tracked the phrase’s use say it is meant to convey the idea that leaders are returning to the party’s original ambitions to empower workers and the disadvantaged, and will limit gains of the capitalist class when necessary to address social inequities.

In a major meeting on financial and economic affairs Tuesday, President Xi described the wider goal of “common prosperity” as an “essential requirement of socialism.”

The government needs to “encourage high-income people and enterprises to give back to society more,” and “create opportunities for more people to become rich,” state-run Xinhua News Agency cited an official report of the meeting as saying.

The new policy priority is a factor in China’s recent clampdowns on powerful technology companies and other businesses whose growth and market clout are seen as contributing to social divides, experts and industry insiders say. The moves include fines for companies like Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. for antitrust failings, and a declaration that after-school tuition should become a not-for-profit industry to reduce families’ education costs.

The government’s messaging could also mean more rule changes are coming in areas such as healthcare, pensions and social welfare, they say.

The push builds on earlier announcements by Chinese leaders, who have been trying to focus more on quality of growth as they address downsides of rapid development like environmental pollution. When Beijing unveiled a new five-year plan this year in the midst of the Covid-19 crisis, it abandoned the long-term tradition of setting a numerical gross domestic product target, a sign it wants to play down emphasis on growth for growth’s sake.

“Xi Jinping is seeking to rebrand the Communist Party’s image domestically and internationally” by reducing income gaps and shifting to higher-quality development, said Bill Bikales, a former senior economist for the United Nations in China. “He wants this to demonstrate that socialism is better than Western capitalism in caring for all the population.”

How wealth is distributed has always preoccupied the Party, though its views have morphed over the years. Mao Zedong once branded capitalists as enemies of the Chinese people. In the 1980s, Deng Xiaoping said it was OK to “let some people get rich first” as China embraced market reforms, though he also highlighted the need for wealth to be spread across society eventually.

Unequal wealth distribution is now a major concern. While living standards have risen dramatically in China, the country’s Gini-coefficient, a measure of inequality, widened to 70.4 in 2020 from 59.9 in 2000, making China one of the world’s most unequal major economies, according to data from Credit Suisse.

Premier Li Keqiang made a stir last year when he revealed that more than 600 million people, or over 40% of China’s population, had monthly income under $140, while many Chinese complain privately about the sway of rich business tycoons.

The phrase “common prosperity,” though not totally new, started appearing much more widely after China said last year that it had succeeded in eradicating extreme poverty, achieving a longstanding goal of becoming what it called a “moderately prosperous society.”

In a February speech celebrating that achievement, Mr. Xi highlighted reaching “common prosperity” as the next stage of China’s development.

Around that time, Mr. Ma, co-founder of Alibaba and fintech giant Ant Group, made his first public appearance after authorities shut down Ant’s planned initial public offering, and said it was entrepreneurs’ responsibility to “work hard for rural revitalization and common prosperity.”

In June, Mr. Xi picked eastern Zhejiang province, where he once served as a top leader, as a “common prosperity” pilot zone. Under the plan, the province aims to lift average per capita disposable income to 75,000 yuan(US$11,600) by 2025, from around 52,000 yuan in 2020.

The plan also pledges to narrow the gulf between rich and poor and reform income allocation by adjusting “excessively high income,” cracking down on illegal gains and encouraging businesspeople to expand philanthropy.

Yuan Jiajun, Zhejiang’s party boss, said the province is trying to showcase to the rest of the country that it is possible to close gaps between regions and in people’s incomes. He also tried to reassure the business community that the program isn’t about “kill the rich and help the poor,” according to state media.

Investment bankers, bloggers and Chinese entrepreneurs have zeroed in on the “common prosperity” theme, seeking to explain its implications.

In a 50-plus page report released earlier this month, Morgan Stanley economists noted that China’s new emphasis on “getting rich together,” or “common prosperity,” would likely mean further regulatory headwinds for companies in sectors associated with rising social inequality, and more support for businesses linked to healthcare and green energy.

“Compared with just five years ago, China’s leadership is paying a lot more attention to social equality,” said Larry Hu, chief China economist at Macquarie Group. In addition to cracking down on tech companies like Ant, which regulators accused of luring young people into debt traps, he said Beijing’s priorities now include diverting more financial support to poorer regions and taming property prices.

Gaming and social-messaging company Tencent Holdings Ltd. said in April that it would spend $7.7 billion toward curing societal ills and lifting China’s countryside out of poverty. More recently, Meituan founder Wang Xing donated a $2.3 billion stake in the Chinese food-delivery giant to his own philanthropic foundation to fund education and science.

Mr. Xi was already envisioning a shift toward more emphasis on social equality before he took power in 2012, as a once-a-decade power struggle within the party entered its final days, according to people familiar with his thinking.

The debate was expressed publicly through obscure talk about cake, a metaphor for China’s wealth, these people said.
Some officials argued for first making the cake bigger and then distributing it. Others, including Bo Xilai, a party chief in Chongqing who was seen as a contender for higher office before being sentenced to life imprisonment for corruption and abuse of power, insisted on first distributing the cake more equally before making it bigger.

Mr. Xi, who was vice president at the time, agreed with neither groups, the people said. He said that his goal was to both make a bigger cake while also distributing it equally and that one shouldn’t contradict the other.

More recently, China’s relatively strong recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic has given the leadership more flexibility to pursue its longstanding social goals, after addressing other priorities like corruption, experts say.

The end of Mr. Xi’s second term in office—and his expected push for a third term in a power reshuffle next year—may be adding some urgency to the “common prosperity” push, especially with growth now starting to slow.

“Xi is hoping to calm the public as the economy slows down and intends to appear concerned about popular livelihoods,” said Dorothy Solinger, a professor emerita of political science at the University of California, Irvine.

But “there are still many forgotten poor people in China who’ve been left out and will continue to be.”

Write to Keith Zhai at keith.zhai@wsj.com and Stella Yifan Xie at stella.xie@wsj.com

China’s Xi Eyes Return to Communist Party Roots Amid Private-Sector Crackdown - WSJ
Whitewash...
Communist style.

Been hearing a lot of the same BS in the U.S. of late.
 

jward

passin' thru
The Cavell Group
@TCG_CrisisRisks

6m

North Korea: As US and South Korea joint exercises commence North Korea issues maritime navigational warning in an indication a missile launch is very likely.
_____________________________

Chad O'Carroll
@chadocl

26m

North Korea apparently issued a navigational warning for the East Sea, between Sunday and Monday. I recall NK issuing similar notices ahead of satellite launch attempts in years gone by, but not ahead of regular ballistic missile testing.
View: https://twitter.com/chadocl/status/1428156936013287426?s=20

______________________________
 
Last edited:

jward

passin' thru
China to build airport in sea near Taiwan
Proposed airport near Pingtan Island would cost US$463 million

Pingtan, China


Pingtan, China (Wikimedia Commons photo)


TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — Beijing is planning to build an airport on land reclaimed from the sea near Pingtan Island, the closest part of China to the main island of Taiwan.
Plans for the airport, which is set to be built off the east coast of Pingtan, between Dasha and Xiaosha islets, came to light through documents released by the authorities in China’s Fujian Province, according to the South China Morning Post (SCMP).
Pingtan has since 2013 been part of a pilot free-trade zone meant to help deepen economic ties with Taiwan, and Beijing has spent hundreds of billions of RMB on infrastructure in and around Pingtan related to economic integration. While the airport has been announced in relation to such plans, the extent to which it will be used for military purposes has not been made public.

The airport is set to cost roughly RMB$3 billion (US$463 million) and will serve as a “major aviation and logistics hub with access to Taiwan,” per SCMP. It comes as part of a large infrastructure package designed by Beijing to economically assimilate its smaller neighbor, with at least 10 new civilian airports, dozens of seaports, and bridges from Fujian Province to Taiwan’s Matsu and Quemoy islands.

The plans have the full-throated support of Chinese leader Xi Jinping (習近平), who in March told Fujian officials to “be bold in exploring new paths for integrated cross-strait development,” according to the report. Over the years, these “new paths” have been equal parts absurd and sinister, such as in 2016, when China proposed building a bridge all the way to Taiwan’s main island through Pingtan.
The intended recipient of these boondoggles, Taiwan, has made clear it rejects any attempts to aggressively entwine it into the infrastructure of a hostile foreign power.

 

jward

passin' thru
11 Chinese warplanes encroach on Taiwan's ADIZ
6 PLAAF fighter jets, 2 bombers, and 3 spy planes intrude on Taiwan's ADIZ

9179


By Keoni Everington, Taiwan News, Staff Writer
2021/08/17 21:20

Xian H-6K bomber. (MND photo)


Xian H-6K bomber. (MND photo)

TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — Six Chinese fighter jets, two bombers, and three surveillance aircraft on Tuesday (Aug. 17) intruded into Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ).

On Tuesday, the Ministry of National Defense (MND) reported that one Shaanxi Y-8 anti-submarine warfare plane (Y-8 ASW), one Shaanxi Y-8 electronic warfare plane (Y-8 EW), one Shaanxi KJ-500 airborne early warning and control aircraft (AEW&C), six Shenyang J-16 fighter jets, and two Xian H-6K bombers penetrated into the southwestern corner of Taiwan's ADIZ.

Taiwan's Air Force responded by scrambling fighter jets to drive the planes away, broadcasting radio warnings, and tracking the aircraft with land-based anti-aircraft missiles.

The presence of the jet fighters and bombers was significant as this is only the second time over the past two months that the People's Liberation Army Airforce (PLAAF) has sent more than just one or two slow-moving turboprops to buzz the zone. Most recently, on Aug. 12, the PLAAF dispatched one Y-8 EW, one Y-8 ELINT, and four J-16 fighter jets into the southwest sector of Taiwan's ADIZ.

The largest incursion by PLAAF aircraft into Taiwan's ADIZ on record occurred on June 15, when a total of 28 military aircraft entered the southern end of the ADIZ, including one Shaanxi Y-8 anti-submarine warfare plane, four Xian H-6 bombers, one Shaanxi Y-8 electronic warfare aircraft, two Shaanxi KJ-500 airborne early warning and control aircraft, 14 Shenyang J-16 fighter jets, and six Shenyang J-11 fighter jets.
 

Griz3752

Retired, practising Curmudgeon
China Touts ‘U.S. Humiliation’ in Afghanistan in Warning to Taiwan
I for one have never really understood America's commitment to Taiwan but at the same time, other then pure, vengeful spite, I don't get why Mainland China gives a damn either unless its all about 'face'.
 

lonestar09

Veteran Member

S. Korea to begin mass production of surface-to-air interceptor missile

17:32 August 18, 2021 SEOUL, Aug. 18 (Yonhap) -- South Korea will begin mass production of a newly upgraded interceptor missile, often dubbed the Korean equivalent of the U.S.-made Patriot missile defense system, after successfully completing a number of quality tests, officials said Wednesday.

Cheongung II, the upgraded version of the country's first locally-developed medium-range surface-to-air guided missile, accurately hit a missile and an aircraft target in firing tests conducted at the Anheung test site in the western city of Taean, in July and August, respectively, according to the Defense Agency for Technology and Quality.

"With the successful completion of the quality certification tests, Cheongung II will now enter the stage of mass production," the agency said in a release. The state-run Agency for Defense Development began the upgrade project in 2012 to add the capability of intercepting ballistic missiles to the previous version which mainly targets aircraft, with a goal to establish a Korean-style missile defense system.

This undated file photo, provided by the arms procurement agency on Nov. 26, 2020, shows Cheongung II, the upgraded version of the country's first internally-developed medium-range surface-to-air guided missile of the same name.
 

jward

passin' thru

jward

passin' thru

northern watch

TB Fanatic
Harris’ Asia trip carries new urgency after Afghan collapse
By ALEXANDRA JAFFE
AP
August 20 2021

FILE - In this Aug. 10, 2021, file photo, Vice President Kamala Harris speaks from the East Room of the White House in Washington. The Taliban takeover of Afghanistan has given new urgency to Harris’s tour of southeast Asia, where she will attempt to reassure allies of American resolve following the chaotic end of a two-decade war. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci, File)

FILE - In this Aug. 10, 2021, file photo, Vice President Kamala Harris speaks from the East Room of the White House in Washington. The Taliban takeover of Afghanistan has given new urgency to Harris’s tour of southeast Asia, where she will attempt to reassure allies of American resolve following the chaotic end of a two-decade war. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci, File)

WASHINGTON (AP) — The Taliban takeover of Afghanistan has given new urgency to Vice President Kamala Harris’ tour of southeast Asia, where she will attempt to reassure allies of American resolve following the chaotic end of a two-decade war.

The trip, which begins Friday and includes stops in Singapore and Vietnam, will provide a forum for Harris to assert herself more directly in foreign affairs. She will have opportunities to affirm what she and President Joe Biden view as core American values, including human rights. That’s especially important given concerns about the future for women and girls in Afghanistan with the Taliban back in power.

But there are also substantial risks. A longtime district attorney and former senator, Harris is largely untested in international diplomacy and foreign policy. Her swing through Vietnam could draw unwanted comparisons between the humiliating withdrawal of U.S. troops there in 1975 and the tumultuous effort this week to evacuate Americans and allies from Afghanistan. And it’s all happening in the shadow of China, whose growing influence worries some U.S. policymakers.

“She’s walking into a hornet’s nest, both with what’s taking place in Afghanistan, but also the challenge of China that looms particularly large in Vietnam,” said Brett Bruin, who served as global engagement director during the Obama administration and was a longtime diplomat. “On a good day, it’s walking a tightrope. On a not so good day, it’s walking a tightrope while leading an elephant across. There’s just an enormous set of issues that she will run into from the moment that Air Force Two touches down.”

Harris struggled at points in June when her first major trip abroad took her to Guatemala and Mexico. Her unequivocal warning to migrants not to come to the U.S. angered some progressive Democrats while doing little to mollify Republican critics who said the administration wasn’t doing enough to address a growth of crossings at the southern border.

She’ll have a fresh chance to make a global impression when she arrives in Singapore, the anchor of the U.S. naval presence in southeast Asia.

On Monday, Harris will speak with Singapore President Halimah Yacob over the phone, participate in a bilateral meeting with Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong and deliver remarks on a U.S. combat ship visiting Singapore.

On Tuesday, she plans to deliver a speech outlining the U.S. vision for engagement in the region, and participate in an event with business leaders focused on supply chain issues.

Harris then heads to Vietnam, a country that holds both strategic and symbolic significance for the U.S. Leaders there have echoed U.S. concerns about the rise of neighboring China and the potential threat that could pose to global security. But it’s also a nation etched into American history as the site of another bloody, costly war with an ignominious end.

The vice president will almost certainly address that parallel when she takes questions from the press in Singapore during a joint press conference with the prime minister Monday. It’s a potentially awkward position for Harris because Biden expressly rejected comparisons between Afghanistan and Vietnam in July, insisting there would be “no circumstance where you see people being lifted off the roof of a embassy” in Afghanistan, a reference to historic images of a helicopter evacuating a U.S. embassy in Saigon in 1975.

But the harried effort to get Americans to the airport in Kabul this week defied that prediction.

While the disorderly conclusion of the Afghan war dominated Washington in recent days, China may be a bigger priority for Harris’ trip. Biden has made countering Chinese influence globally a central focus of his foreign policy. Relations between the U.S. and China deteriorated sharply under Biden’s predecessor, Donald Trump, and the two sides remain at odds over a host of issues including technology, cybersecurity and human rights.

And with Beijing’s incursions in the disputed South China Sea, engagement with Vietnam and Singapore is key to the Biden administration’s diplomatic and military goals in the region.

Former U.S. ambassador to Vietnam David Shear said Harris must be careful to offer a “positive” message to the nations, and avoid focusing entirely on China during her trip.

“Our relationships with these countries are important in themselves, and they don’t want to be thought of solely as a pawn in a U.S-China chess game. They want to be thought of on their own terms, and they want their interests to be considered on their own terms,” he said.

Instead, analysts say they hope Harris will focus in particular on trade issues during her trip. The White House has been considering a new digital trade deal with countries in the region, which would allow for the free flow of data and open up opportunities for U.S. companies for greater cooperation on emerging technologies in a fast-growing region of the world.

And COVID-19 is certain to be top of mind in two countries facing starkly divergent virus trends. Singapore has experienced just a few dozen pandemic-related deaths and has a relatively high vaccination rate, and the country is getting ready to ease travel and economic restrictions this fall. Vietnam, meanwhile, is facing record-high coronavirus infections driven by the delta variant and low vaccination rates.

The U.S. has provided more than 23 million vaccine doses to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), and tens of millions of dollars in personal protective equipment, laboratory equipment and other supplies to fight the virus.
During her visit to Vietnam, Harris is planning to hold a virtual meeting with ASEAN health ministers and tout the launch of a regional office of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Gregory Poling, a senior fellow for Southeast Asia at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said showing a commitment to the region on the coronavirus pandemic is key for Harris’ trip.

“I think on COVID, the administration realizes that this is the singular issue. If they’re not seen as leading vaccine distribution in the region, then nothing else they do in Asia matters, or at least nothing else they do is going to find a willing audience,” he said.

Harris' Asia trip carries new urgency after Afghan collapse (apnews.com)
 

jward

passin' thru
not sure what to make of Australia. On one hand they seemed to be an
emergent strong future ally, on the other, those Covid lockdown scenes
are alarming in their own right :: shrug ::





Indo-Pacific News - Watching the CCP-China Threat
@IndoPac_Info

38m

#Australian Senate passes bill banning imports made using forced labour (read #China) The bill would amend the Customs Act to prohibit the importation into #Australia of goods produced or manufactured, in whole or in part, through the use of forced labour
View: https://twitter.com/IndoPac_Info/status/1429782483604631557?s=20
n
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Posted for fair use.....

Mon, 08/23/2021 - 11:42am

U.S. Withdrawal from Afghanistan: The View From Pyongyang

Robert Collins​

As the world watches the precipitous and poorly planned efforts of the United States withdrawal from Afghanistan, America’s allies cannot help but to wonder how these unfolding historical events will impact their individual alliances with the U.S. Elements of the Republic of Korea (ROK – South Korea) are no different. Today, the ROK print and broadcast media is full of questions and doubt, as well as ROK politicians who view compromise with North Korea as the primary route to unification of the Korean peninsula.

For North Korea’s Kim Jong-un, the view from Pyongyang has definitely improved from the Kim regime’s perspective of splitting the ROK-US Alliance. The Kim regime has had few opportunities as significant as America’s chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan to manipulate the ROK into doubting, even distrusting, its alliance with the U.S. Allied efforts at peace on the peninsula or any expectation that North Korea will accept new conditions in peace negotiations are now demonstrably crippled.

Consequently, it would be foolish to not believe that Kim Jong-un has called secretive meetings of the Korean Workers’ Party (KW) Politburo and the Central Military Committee to review the situation and its impact on the Korean Peninsula. It would be even more foolish to believe that Kim Jong-un has not ordered the KWP Propaganda and Agitation Department (PAD), the United Front Department (UFD), the Korean People’s Army (KPA), the General Political Bureau (GPB), and any other institution to urgently establish new plans that would take advantage of the ROK doubt in its alliance with the U.S., regardless of how significant or insignificant that doubt may be. This would be applicable to both pre-crisis and mid-crisis.

North Korea’s frontline of propaganda, political agitation, misinformation, disinformation, and target audience manipulation is the KWP PAD. The PAD has many informational tasks and manipulates many themes and messages, while influencing ROK public opinion is just one of them. However, among external information operations, the ROK public is the main target. This effort is led by the PAD Overseas Propaganda Bureau. Some PAD sub-elements focus on counterintelligence propaganda, KWP policy propaganda and war-readiness propaganda, most of which targets the North Korean population. The Kim regime’s Ministry of State Security (MSS) is in direct support of these efforts domestically.

The UFD commands a cyber department that promotes false propaganda targeting the ROK public for the purpose of causing socio-political confrontation within the general public, the ROK government administration, and ROK politicians. It has established a dedicated cyber department that conducts psychological warfare against the ROK through 140 internet websites with servers in 19 overseas countries, including “Uriminjokkiri (Among Our People)” and “Kuguk Chonson (Save the Country Front).” The mission of these 140 websites is to organize cyber tactics to create “revolution in the ROK” which lead to the withdrawal of U.S. forces from the South. In coordination with the PAD, two primary UFD organizations that focus on the ROK are the 101st Liaison Center and the 26th Liaison Center.

The 101st Liaison Center, located in front of the Pyongyang Medical College in Yonhwa-1-dong, Chung-gu, Pyongyang. It is responsible for producing fabrications, falsehoods, and distortions – in other words, disinformation – about all three of the North’s Supreme Leader – Kim Il-sung, Kim Jong-il, and Kim Jong-un. The 101st Liaison Center employs 30 experts on South Korean society and culture. They produce novels, poems, and songs proclaiming the glory of the North’s Supreme Leader and distribute them through the KPA Reconnaissance General Bureau’s (RGB) 225th intelligence unit.

The 26th Liaison Center produces videos focusing on admiration for the Supreme Leader, emphasizing that the Supreme Leader is the pivot point of Korean unification. The 26th’s products are particularly designed to shape ROK college students and their efforts at anti-government activities. The 26th operates the Voice of Salvation broadcast system that targets the ROK public. Redefining these efforts to support doubt in the reliability of the U.S. commitment would be an easy transition. The 26th, which also works with the 225th, is located next to Kim Il-sung University gymnasium in Yonghung-dong, Taesong-guyok, Pyongyang.

The PAD and the RGB collaborate to infiltrate the ROK with anti-ROK government and anti-U.S. propaganda. The RGB’s 225th Intelligence Unit is North Korea’s primary infiltration element targeting the ROK and other countries. In collaboration with the Liaison Centers, the 225th carries the products of the 101st and the 26th into the ROK. Targeting ROK confidence in its alliance with the U.S. would be a primary effort of the 225th‘s infiltration assets.

The GPB is responsible for all political activity within the KPA. Moreover, it also commands the Enemy Operations Department, otherwise known as the 563rd Unit. The 563rd falls under the operational control of the KWP UFD during peacetime. It conducts clandestine operations against ROK soldiers, as well as kidnapping, propaganda broadcasts along the DMZ, and distributing leaflets and other printed materials. In wartime, it conducts operations against populations in territories occupied by the KPA, assesses reactionaries, and seeks out KPA supporters. The 563rd Unit’s criticality grows the greater any crisis becomes.

Finally, but most importantly, Kim Jong-un has most likely ordered the operational planning section of the KPA General Staff to coordinate the above efforts with new military plans that would target ROK trust in the alliance, particularly during any road to war and defense conditions elevations during crisis. These operations will also likely be incorporated into efforts to debilitate ROK confidence in its alliance with the U.S. during the alliance’s primary spring and summer command post exercises.

All these regime organizations will operate in high gear, given the catastrophic efforts of U.S. evacuation from Afghanistan. Providing vision for these efforts is China’s efforts to undermine U.S. support for Taiwan and Taiwanese confidence in their relationship with the U.S. The Kim regime will no doubt be on the lookout for newly learned tactics and strategies devised and implemented by the Chinese Communist Party and the People’s Liberation Army.

Kim regime efforts to weaken the ROK-U.S. Alliance will continue to advance and develop over the coming months and will take learning points from every development of the United States’ clumsy withdrawal from Afghanistan. Most importantly, it will use this development to propagandize the superior leadership of Kim Jong-un over that of the United States.



About the Author(s)

Robert Collins
Robert Collins is a 37-year veteran employee of the U.S. Department of the Army and served 31 years in various positions with the U.S. military in Korea, the last position as a political advisor to the Commander, ROK-US Combined Forces Command. He is the author of “Marked For Life: Songbun – North Korea’s Social Classification System,” Committee on Human Rights for North Korea, Washington, DC, 2012; and “Strategic Assessment of North Korean Human Environment During Crisis,” United States Forces Korea’s Korean Battle Simulation Center, 2013.
 
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