ALERT The Winds of War Blow in Korea and The Far East
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America’s Taiwan policy ‘has not changed one bit’: US scholar
Steven Goldstein describes US policy of strategic ambiguity as one of ‘dual deterrence’1050
By Eric Chang, Taiwan News, Staff Writer
2021/08/25 15:45
Taiwan and US flags (Getty Images)
TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — U.S. foreign policy with respect to Taiwan has not changed, according to an American scholar.
“The situation in the Taiwan Strait and Afghanistan are totally different,” said Steven Goldstein, an associate of the Fairbank Center and the director of the Taiwan Studies Workshop at Harvard University, in an interview with CNA.
“Taiwan’s status in American foreign policy has not changed one bit,” he stressed.
“As opposed to Afghanistan, the United States has a vital national interest to pursue in the Taiwan Strait,” Goldstein added. He then pointed out that the foundation of American policy is to avoid conflict in the region through the “preservation of the status quo.”
Goldstein said that one of the ways the U.S. maintains this is through a situation of “mutual frustration,” whereby Taiwan is not able to formally declare independence, while China is deterred from taking over Taiwan by military force due to the possibility of American military intervention. “So neither side is happy with the situation,” he told CNA.
The U.S. scholar then goes on to explain that America’s decades-old policy of strategic ambiguity is one of “dual deterrence” in which Taiwan is deterred from unilaterally declaring independence and China is deterred from using military force, while at the same time assuring Taipei that Washington will support its present status and assuring Beijing that America will not support Taiwanese independence if China refrains from attack.
Goldstein then noted that since Biden is working on getting his domestic policy package passed in the U.S., the president needs the support of Congress. And “Congress is a very strong supporter of Taiwan,” which also acts as a restraint on any radical change in American foreign policy toward Taiwan.
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EndGameWW3
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3h
Japan Snubs China Warnings to Invite Taiwan for Swift Security Talks
View: https://twitter.com/EndGameWW3/status/1430608068665085965?s=20
EndGameWW3
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7h
China opposes talks between Japan and Taiwan's ruling parties
View: https://twitter.com/EndGameWW3/status/1430547153760423938?s=20
@EndGameWW3
3h
Japan Snubs China Warnings to Invite Taiwan for Swift Security Talks
View: https://twitter.com/EndGameWW3/status/1430608068665085965?s=20
EndGameWW3
@EndGameWW3
7h
China opposes talks between Japan and Taiwan's ruling parties
View: https://twitter.com/EndGameWW3/status/1430547153760423938?s=20
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EndGameWW3
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·
Update: Vietnam says it will not side against China. Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh told China his country would not enter an alliance to confront Beijing.
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To counter China, the US must upgrade missile defense in Guam | TheHill
Matthew Kroenig, opinion contributor
5-6 minutes
The nation's attention has understandably been focused on the unfolding events in Afghanistan and the urgent efforts to evacuate Americans and Afghans who supported the war effort. Even as Washington manages the urgent Afghanistan crisis, however, it must simultaneously address more important, longer-term challenges, including deterring Chinese military aggression in the Indo-Pacific. This is why Congress should fully reinstate funding for air and missile defenses in Guam when it reconvenes in early September.
The United States’ chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan will no doubt have important implications for America’s global standing, but none of the potential negative consequences are as serious as the threat posed by China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA). China’s rapid military buildup has shifted the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific calling into question the ability of the United States to defend long standing allies and partners in the region, including Taiwan. Beijing has made it clear that it will not rule out the use of military force to reclaim Taiwan, which it sees as a renegade province. The former commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, Adm. Phil Davidson, testified before Congress earlier this year that he believes China will try to take Taiwan “in the next six years.”
Moreover, China is developing a military strategy and capabilities designed to do just that. The PLA hopes to push American military forces out of the Indo-Pacific, giving Beijing a freer hand to engage in armed aggression against its neighbors. U.S. regional military presence is concentrated at several, large military bases, including in Japan, South Korea and the U.S. territory of Guam. China would likely attempt to degrade U.S. military capabilities at these locations in the early stages of any conflict by overwhelming them with a broad range of missile attacks — including ballistic, cruise and hypersonic missiles. A successful missile attack would greatly blunt American military power in the region and complicate the U.S. ability to deny a Chinese victory over Taiwan.
The Department of Defense needs the ability, therefore, to defend these bases in the event of conflict. More importantly, effective defenses can help to deter China from attempting an attack in the first place. After all, if Chinese leaders believe the attack might fail or face insurmountable obstacles, then they will be less likely to try.
This is why regional missile defenses are a critical piece of U.S. defense strategy in the region. Many critics argue that missile defenses do not work, but they are working with outdated information. Theater missile defenses have greatly improved in recent years, as demonstrated by Israel’s Iron Dome in the war with Hamas earlier this year. In tests, U.S. missile defense systems have successfully intercepted more than 70 percent of incoming missiles. These capabilities can go a long way to defending against — and deterring — a Chinese missile attack.
Fortunately, South Korea and Japan have fairly robust missile defense systems already in place, but Guam’s defenses need a substantial upgrade beyond the limited assets already there. Moreover, Guam is a U.S. territory. Defending Guam and its airfield protects American citizens and the U.S. homeland while it contributes to U.S. regional defense strategy.
It is for these reasons that Davidson and his successor, Adm. John Aquilino, have made 360-degree air and missile defenses for Guam the command’s highest priority.
To meet this urgent need, the president’s budget requested $40 million for procurement and $78.3 million for research and development for a missile defense system in Guam. In addition, U.S. Indo-Pacific Command has sent Congress a related list of $231 million in unfunded requirements.
Unfortunately, when House appropriators met for the defense bill’s markup this summer, they zeroed out procurement and significantly reduced research and development funding for missile defenses in Guam. This was a mistake. Moreover, the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command’s unfunded requirements remain just that, unfunded.
Fortunately, there is time for a correction. The House Armed Services Committee will meet on Sept. 1 to begin their markup of the defense bill. Appropriators in the House and Senate will also have time to restore funding in the final bill. When they meet, they should fully reinstate funding for missile defenses in Guam.
America’s chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan has dealt a blow to American credibility, but losing a war to China would be even more devastating. Washington cannot take the chance. It must ensure it has the capabilities needed to defend itself, its allies and its forces from the growing Chinese military threat.
Matthew Kroenig is a professor of government at Georgetown University and director of the Atlantic Council's Scowcroft Strategy Initiative. He was a special government employee and senior policy adviser on nuclear and missile defense policy in the Office of the Secretary of Defense from 2017-2021.
posted for fair use
thehill.com
Matthew Kroenig, opinion contributor
5-6 minutes
The nation's attention has understandably been focused on the unfolding events in Afghanistan and the urgent efforts to evacuate Americans and Afghans who supported the war effort. Even as Washington manages the urgent Afghanistan crisis, however, it must simultaneously address more important, longer-term challenges, including deterring Chinese military aggression in the Indo-Pacific. This is why Congress should fully reinstate funding for air and missile defenses in Guam when it reconvenes in early September.
The United States’ chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan will no doubt have important implications for America’s global standing, but none of the potential negative consequences are as serious as the threat posed by China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA). China’s rapid military buildup has shifted the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific calling into question the ability of the United States to defend long standing allies and partners in the region, including Taiwan. Beijing has made it clear that it will not rule out the use of military force to reclaim Taiwan, which it sees as a renegade province. The former commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, Adm. Phil Davidson, testified before Congress earlier this year that he believes China will try to take Taiwan “in the next six years.”
Moreover, China is developing a military strategy and capabilities designed to do just that. The PLA hopes to push American military forces out of the Indo-Pacific, giving Beijing a freer hand to engage in armed aggression against its neighbors. U.S. regional military presence is concentrated at several, large military bases, including in Japan, South Korea and the U.S. territory of Guam. China would likely attempt to degrade U.S. military capabilities at these locations in the early stages of any conflict by overwhelming them with a broad range of missile attacks — including ballistic, cruise and hypersonic missiles. A successful missile attack would greatly blunt American military power in the region and complicate the U.S. ability to deny a Chinese victory over Taiwan.
The Department of Defense needs the ability, therefore, to defend these bases in the event of conflict. More importantly, effective defenses can help to deter China from attempting an attack in the first place. After all, if Chinese leaders believe the attack might fail or face insurmountable obstacles, then they will be less likely to try.
This is why regional missile defenses are a critical piece of U.S. defense strategy in the region. Many critics argue that missile defenses do not work, but they are working with outdated information. Theater missile defenses have greatly improved in recent years, as demonstrated by Israel’s Iron Dome in the war with Hamas earlier this year. In tests, U.S. missile defense systems have successfully intercepted more than 70 percent of incoming missiles. These capabilities can go a long way to defending against — and deterring — a Chinese missile attack.
Fortunately, South Korea and Japan have fairly robust missile defense systems already in place, but Guam’s defenses need a substantial upgrade beyond the limited assets already there. Moreover, Guam is a U.S. territory. Defending Guam and its airfield protects American citizens and the U.S. homeland while it contributes to U.S. regional defense strategy.
It is for these reasons that Davidson and his successor, Adm. John Aquilino, have made 360-degree air and missile defenses for Guam the command’s highest priority.
To meet this urgent need, the president’s budget requested $40 million for procurement and $78.3 million for research and development for a missile defense system in Guam. In addition, U.S. Indo-Pacific Command has sent Congress a related list of $231 million in unfunded requirements.
Unfortunately, when House appropriators met for the defense bill’s markup this summer, they zeroed out procurement and significantly reduced research and development funding for missile defenses in Guam. This was a mistake. Moreover, the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command’s unfunded requirements remain just that, unfunded.
Fortunately, there is time for a correction. The House Armed Services Committee will meet on Sept. 1 to begin their markup of the defense bill. Appropriators in the House and Senate will also have time to restore funding in the final bill. When they meet, they should fully reinstate funding for missile defenses in Guam.
America’s chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan has dealt a blow to American credibility, but losing a war to China would be even more devastating. Washington cannot take the chance. It must ensure it has the capabilities needed to defend itself, its allies and its forces from the growing Chinese military threat.
Matthew Kroenig is a professor of government at Georgetown University and director of the Atlantic Council's Scowcroft Strategy Initiative. He was a special government employee and senior policy adviser on nuclear and missile defense policy in the Office of the Secretary of Defense from 2017-2021.
posted for fair use
To counter China, the US must upgrade missile defense in Guam
China’s rapid military buildup has shifted the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific calling into question the ability of the United States to defend long standing allies and partners in the region,…
thehill.com
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Hmm. interesting.
NK NEWS
@nknewsorg
4m
North Korean state media is putting more focus on promoting healthier diets and lifestyles for citizens to follow. A new animation in one scene depicts a thinner girl trying to wake her overweight female friend from an apparent food coma.
View: https://twitter.com/nknewsorg/status/1430998505951219714?s=20
NK NEWS
@nknewsorg
4m
North Korean state media is putting more focus on promoting healthier diets and lifestyles for citizens to follow. A new animation in one scene depicts a thinner girl trying to wake her overweight female friend from an apparent food coma.
View: https://twitter.com/nknewsorg/status/1430998505951219714?s=20
northern watch
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RT: 1.23 minutes
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EndGameWW3
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We still have time to poke China even while this Afghanistan debacle is happening... Update: The destroyer USS Kidd (DDG-100) & 1 US Coast Guard vessel transited through the Taiwan Strait, in what Washington calls routine operations.
@EndGameWW3
We still have time to poke China even while this Afghanistan debacle is happening... Update: The destroyer USS Kidd (DDG-100) & 1 US Coast Guard vessel transited through the Taiwan Strait, in what Washington calls routine operations.
northern watch
TB Fanatic
Taiwan eyes jet fighter buy amid modest hike in 2022 defence spending
August 25, 202110:11 PM PDT
Last Updated 2 days ago
TAIPEI, August 26 2021 (Reuters) - Taiwan announced a more modest pace in defence spending for next year on Thursday, but will spend $1.44 billion on new fighter jets, as the island bolsters its forces in the face of increased pressure from Beijing.
China has stepped up its military activity near Taiwan, including holding assault drills last week near the island, which it regards as Chinese territory to be brought under Beijing's control, by force if necessary.
President Tsai Ing-wen's cabinet is proposing military spending of T$471.7 billion ($16.89 billion) for the year starting in January, up from this year's budget of T$453.4 billion, the government said in a statement.
That number includes T$40.1 billion ($1.44 billion) for new fighter jets, though the government did not give details but likely refers to F-16s.
The United States in 2019 approved an $8 billion sale of F-16 fighter jets to Taiwan, a deal that would bring the island's total to more than 200, the largest F-16 fleet in Asia.
The rate of increase would be smaller than the 10% rise budgeted for this year, according to Reuters calculations based on government data.
China in March said its 2021 defence spending would rise 6.8% from 2020, as the world's second-largest economy emerges from the repercussions of the coronavirus pandemic. read more
Taiwan's proposed defence budget is the third-largest government expenditure for next year, after social welfare and combined spending on education, science and culture.
The budget must be approved by parliament, where Tsai's Democratic Progressive Party has a large majority, making its approval easier.
Tsai has made modernising Taiwan's armed forces - well-armed, but dwarfed by China's - and increasing defence spending a priority.
Part of that is a making Taiwan a "porcupine" equipped with advanced, highly mobile weapons to make a Chinese invasion as difficult as possible.
($1=27.9310 Taiwan dollars)
Reporting by Ben Blanchard and Yimou Lee; Editing by Clarence Fernandez and Gerry Doyle
Taiwan eyes jet fighter buy amid modest hike in 2022 defence spending | Reuters
August 25, 202110:11 PM PDT
Last Updated 2 days ago
TAIPEI, August 26 2021 (Reuters) - Taiwan announced a more modest pace in defence spending for next year on Thursday, but will spend $1.44 billion on new fighter jets, as the island bolsters its forces in the face of increased pressure from Beijing.
China has stepped up its military activity near Taiwan, including holding assault drills last week near the island, which it regards as Chinese territory to be brought under Beijing's control, by force if necessary.
President Tsai Ing-wen's cabinet is proposing military spending of T$471.7 billion ($16.89 billion) for the year starting in January, up from this year's budget of T$453.4 billion, the government said in a statement.
That number includes T$40.1 billion ($1.44 billion) for new fighter jets, though the government did not give details but likely refers to F-16s.
The United States in 2019 approved an $8 billion sale of F-16 fighter jets to Taiwan, a deal that would bring the island's total to more than 200, the largest F-16 fleet in Asia.
The rate of increase would be smaller than the 10% rise budgeted for this year, according to Reuters calculations based on government data.
China in March said its 2021 defence spending would rise 6.8% from 2020, as the world's second-largest economy emerges from the repercussions of the coronavirus pandemic. read more
Taiwan's proposed defence budget is the third-largest government expenditure for next year, after social welfare and combined spending on education, science and culture.
The budget must be approved by parliament, where Tsai's Democratic Progressive Party has a large majority, making its approval easier.
Tsai has made modernising Taiwan's armed forces - well-armed, but dwarfed by China's - and increasing defence spending a priority.
Part of that is a making Taiwan a "porcupine" equipped with advanced, highly mobile weapons to make a Chinese invasion as difficult as possible.
($1=27.9310 Taiwan dollars)
Reporting by Ben Blanchard and Yimou Lee; Editing by Clarence Fernandez and Gerry Doyle
Taiwan eyes jet fighter buy amid modest hike in 2022 defence spending | Reuters
northern watch
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RT: 0.45 minutes
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Global: MilitaryInfo
@Global_Mil_Info
4h
North Korea has reportedly resumed operation of its plutonium-producing reactor at Yongbyon according to the U.N. atomic agency.
@Global_Mil_Info
4h
North Korea has reportedly resumed operation of its plutonium-producing reactor at Yongbyon according to the U.N. atomic agency.
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Indo-Pacific News - Watching the CCP-China Threat
@IndoPac_Info
5h
And of course #China's definition of "Chinese territorial sea" includes the whole #SouthChinaSea and most of the #EastChinaSea in direct violation of The Law of the Sea, #UNCLOS regulations & the #UNCLOS ruling on the 9 dash line.
View: https://twitter.com/IndoPac_Info/status/1432237313195528192?s=20
@IndoPac_Info
5h
And of course #China's definition of "Chinese territorial sea" includes the whole #SouthChinaSea and most of the #EastChinaSea in direct violation of The Law of the Sea, #UNCLOS regulations & the #UNCLOS ruling on the 9 dash line.
View: https://twitter.com/IndoPac_Info/status/1432237313195528192?s=20
I expect to see a full up "operational test" of a North Korean strategic system soon. The question is whether it will be far down range over the expanses of the Pacific or directly over North Korean territory?
northern watch
TB Fanatic
Japan ministry seeks 2.6% defense hike amid China worries
Japan’s Defense Ministry is asking for a 2.6% increase over this year’s record budget
By MARI YAMAGUCHI Associated Press
31 August 2021, 04:21
The Associated Press
FILE - In this June 20, 2021, file photo, a U.S. F-35 aircraft sits on the U.K.'s aircraft carrier HMS Queen Elizabeth in the Mediterranean Sea. Japan’s Defense Ministry's defense budget released on Tuesday, Aug. 31, 2021, is asking for a 2.6% increase over this year's budget including 130 billion yen ($1.18 billion) to acquire a dozen more U.S.-made F-35 stealth fighters from Lockheed Martin, including four F-35Bs. (AP Photo/Petros Karadjias, File)
TOKYO -- Japan’s Defense Ministry on Tuesday asked for a 2.6% increase over this year’s record budget as it seeks to further strengthen the country's military in the face of China’s growing assertiveness in the region.
The ministry's budget sought 5.48 trillion yen ($49.86 billion) for the year starting April 1, 2022, in what could be a record high if approved by the Finance Ministry and parliament later this year, after a nine-year consecutive increase.
Japan’s concerns about China’s increasingly assertive military actions in the region, as well as Beijing’s growing tension with Taiwan and rivalry with the United States, were specifically noted in this year’s defense report adopted in July.
The report said China's increased military capability and the lack of clarity regarding Chinese military spending is “a matter of grave concern" and criticized China’s maritime activity in and around Japanese-claimed waters.
Japan has been stepping up defense in the country’s southwestern regions and islands, including Ishigaki Island, where a new military base with a land-to-sea missile defense system will be opened. Ishigaki is north of the uninhabited but Japanese-controlled Senkaku Islands, which are also claimed by China and called Diaoyu.
Japan's military spending and capabilities have grown continuously since former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe took office in December 2012, rising by 17% over the past nine years. Abe's government allowed Japan's self-defense force to play a greater international role by adopting a new interpretation in 2015 of the war-renouncing Article 9 of the constitution.
Japan ministry seeks 2.6% defense hike amid China worries - ABC News (go.com)
Critics say Japan, as the world’s fastest-aging country with a shrinking population, should allocate more money toward health care and other purposes instead of defense spending.
Costly items in the latest budget request included 130 billion yen ($1.18 billion) to acquire a dozen more U.S.-made F-35 stealth fighters from Lockheed Martin, including four F-35Bs capable of short takeoff and vertical landings that can operate on two Japanese helicopter carriers that are being converted.
The Defense Ministry also seeks to increase research and development spending to a record 325.7 billion yen ($2.96 billion) for “game-changing” technologies such as unmanned aircraft operated by artificial intelligence.
The ministry is seeking nearly 105 billion yen ($1 billion) for home-developed fighter jets — the first in about 30 years since the Mitsubishi F-2 — by around 2035, a multibillion-dollar project led by Mitsubishi Heavy Industries.
In order to beef up its space forces, Japan wants 84 billion yen ($765 million) that includes purchasing lasers and satellites to track targets in space, as well as increasing space force personnel.
Japan’s Defense Ministry is asking for a 2.6% increase over this year’s record budget
By MARI YAMAGUCHI Associated Press
31 August 2021, 04:21
FILE - In this June 20, 2021, file photo, a U.S. F-35 aircraft sits on the U.K.'s aircraft carrier HMS Queen Elizabeth in the Mediterranean Sea. Japan’s Defense Ministry's defense budget released on Tuesday, Aug. 31, 2021, is asking for a 2.6% increase over this year's budget including 130 billion yen ($1.18 billion) to acquire a dozen more U.S.-made F-35 stealth fighters from Lockheed Martin, including four F-35Bs. (AP Photo/Petros Karadjias, File)
TOKYO -- Japan’s Defense Ministry on Tuesday asked for a 2.6% increase over this year’s record budget as it seeks to further strengthen the country's military in the face of China’s growing assertiveness in the region.
The ministry's budget sought 5.48 trillion yen ($49.86 billion) for the year starting April 1, 2022, in what could be a record high if approved by the Finance Ministry and parliament later this year, after a nine-year consecutive increase.
Japan’s concerns about China’s increasingly assertive military actions in the region, as well as Beijing’s growing tension with Taiwan and rivalry with the United States, were specifically noted in this year’s defense report adopted in July.
The report said China's increased military capability and the lack of clarity regarding Chinese military spending is “a matter of grave concern" and criticized China’s maritime activity in and around Japanese-claimed waters.
Japan has been stepping up defense in the country’s southwestern regions and islands, including Ishigaki Island, where a new military base with a land-to-sea missile defense system will be opened. Ishigaki is north of the uninhabited but Japanese-controlled Senkaku Islands, which are also claimed by China and called Diaoyu.
Japan's military spending and capabilities have grown continuously since former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe took office in December 2012, rising by 17% over the past nine years. Abe's government allowed Japan's self-defense force to play a greater international role by adopting a new interpretation in 2015 of the war-renouncing Article 9 of the constitution.
Japan ministry seeks 2.6% defense hike amid China worries - ABC News (go.com)
Critics say Japan, as the world’s fastest-aging country with a shrinking population, should allocate more money toward health care and other purposes instead of defense spending.
Costly items in the latest budget request included 130 billion yen ($1.18 billion) to acquire a dozen more U.S.-made F-35 stealth fighters from Lockheed Martin, including four F-35Bs capable of short takeoff and vertical landings that can operate on two Japanese helicopter carriers that are being converted.
The Defense Ministry also seeks to increase research and development spending to a record 325.7 billion yen ($2.96 billion) for “game-changing” technologies such as unmanned aircraft operated by artificial intelligence.
The ministry is seeking nearly 105 billion yen ($1 billion) for home-developed fighter jets — the first in about 30 years since the Mitsubishi F-2 — by around 2035, a multibillion-dollar project led by Mitsubishi Heavy Industries.
In order to beef up its space forces, Japan wants 84 billion yen ($765 million) that includes purchasing lasers and satellites to track targets in space, as well as increasing space force personnel.
Hummm......
Posted for fair use.....
www.voanews.com
East Asia Pacific
Experts: N. Korea May Be Pushing Biden for Nuclear Deal Trump Rejected
By Christy Lee
August 31, 2021 10:55 PM
WASHINGTON - Experts say North Korea’s reactivation of the reactor at its Yongbyon nuclear facility may be a calculated step by Pyongyang to gain leverage in a renewed effort to gain concessions from the U.S.
North Korea resumed the operation of a nuclear reactor at Yongbyon in early July, according to the annual report released by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) on Friday. The reactor, capable of producing plutonium to make nuclear weapons, had been dormant from early December 2018.
IAEA: Renewed Activity at N. Korea Nuclear Reactor 'Deeply Troubling'
The IAEA has had no access to North Korea since Pyongyang expelled its inspectors in 2009
Former President Donald Trump rejected an offer by regime leader Kim Jong Un to dismantle the Yongbyon site in exchange for sanctions relief when the two met in Hanoi in February 2019. The summit collapsed because Trump wanted Pyongyang to shut down all its nuclear facilities, a move Kim refused to make.
Experts told VOA Korean that the timing of the Yongbyon reactor’s July reactivation may be a test of the Biden administration as it coincided with the beginning of troop withdrawals from Afghanistan, a process that concluded on Monday.
Evans Revere, a former State Department official who has an extensive experience dealing with North Korea, said, “We cannot rule out that the resumption of plutonium production and reprocessing [reactor] at Yongbyon is Pyongyang’s way of reminding the United States of the dangers posed by the nuclear facilities at Yongbyon in order to see what ‘price’ the United States might be willing to pay to freeze or shut down these facilities if negotiations resume.”
David Maxwell, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said restarting the reactor is North Korea’s attempt at “using threats and increased tensions to try to drive the U.S. to dialogue to obtain concessions of sanctions relief.”
Maxwell continued to say, “Kim may assess that the Biden administration needs some kind of foreign policy success and may really want to show progress on North Korea.”
Gary Samore, former White House coordinator for Arms Control and Weapons of Mass Destruction during the Obama administration, said Pyongyang is trying to enhance its leverage with Washington in future negotiations.
“Starting up the five-megawatt reactor gives North Korea more leverage, gives the U.S. more incentive to accept North Korea’s proposal,” Samore said.
Samore added, “At the end of the day, of course, if the two sides can’t come to an agreement, North Korea can always use the extra plutonium for its nuclear weapons program. So the decision to restart the reactor serves both a diplomatic purpose in terms of enhancing North Korean leverage, and also serves a technical purpose in terms of providing more material for its nuclear weapons.”
President Joe Biden has been dealing with the aftermath of its troop withdrawal in Afghanistan since mid-August as the Taliban moved with unanticipated speed to occupy the nation and its capital, Kabul, with little resistance.
Revere said that Pyongyang may increase its military provocations in an attempt to exploit what it sees as a weakened U.S. position.
Revere said, “North Korea may be tempted to view the United States as weak or irresolute in the aftermath of the end of the U.S. military presence in Afghanistan, and this in turn could lead to military adventurism by North Korea.”
Experts, however, do not believe North Korea will make threats that would overstep the U.S. refusal to accept testing intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM) or nuclear weapons.
“An ICBM or nuclear weapons test would push the United States into increasing sanctions pressure on North Korea and make it very difficult for China to push back against the existing U.S. and United Nations sanctions, which are not outcomes that North Korea wants,” said Bruce Bennett, a senior defense analyst at the RAND Corp.
China helps North Korea evade sanctions, particularly with coal exports and petroleum imports, according to the United Nations.
Kim announced in December 2019 that North Korea was ending its self-imposed moratorium on testing long-range missiles and nuclear weapons and demanded concessions from the U.S. Nevertheless, the regime so far has not tested either.
Maxwell said North Korea is likely to raise provocations by carrying out “major mobilization activities” of its conventional military force such as artillery and rocket forces trainings, heightened air defense training, movement of special operation forces and naval vessels, and increased activity along the demilitarized zone (DMZ) separating the two Koreas.
“We will see activities that we can assess as preparations for a possible major attack,” Maxwell said. “This will be somewhat ambiguous because it can be assessed as a major training exercises.”
Talks between Pyongyang and Washington remain largely deadlocked, despite the Biden administration’s attempts to reengage North Korea.
U.S. Special Representative for North Korea Sung Kim met with South Korea’s top nuclear envoy, Noh Kyu-duk, who visited Washington D.C. this week. On Monday, the two discussed ways to bring North Korea to the negotiating table. Kim said he is waiting for a reply from North Korea on the U.S. offer for talks.
RELATED STORIES
East Asia Pacific
IAEA: Renewed Activity at N. Korea Nuclear Reactor 'Deeply Troubling'
The IAEA has had no access to North Korea since Pyongyang expelled its inspectors in 2009
By Reuters
Mon, 08/30/2021 - 02:26 AM
East Asia Pacific
Nuclear Watchdog Says North Korea Appears to Have Restarted Reactor
The International Atomic Energy Agency has had no access to North Korea since Pyongyang expelled its inspectors in 2009
By Reuters
Sun, 08/29/2021 - 06:36 PM
Posted for fair use.....
Experts: N. Korea May Be Pushing Biden for Nuclear Deal Trump Rejected
North Korea has raised tensions by reactivating its reactor at the Yongbyon nuclear facility in a renewed bid to increase its leverage and gain concessions from the Biden administration
www.voanews.com
East Asia Pacific
Experts: N. Korea May Be Pushing Biden for Nuclear Deal Trump Rejected
By Christy Lee
August 31, 2021 10:55 PM
WASHINGTON - Experts say North Korea’s reactivation of the reactor at its Yongbyon nuclear facility may be a calculated step by Pyongyang to gain leverage in a renewed effort to gain concessions from the U.S.
North Korea resumed the operation of a nuclear reactor at Yongbyon in early July, according to the annual report released by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) on Friday. The reactor, capable of producing plutonium to make nuclear weapons, had been dormant from early December 2018.
IAEA: Renewed Activity at N. Korea Nuclear Reactor 'Deeply Troubling'
The IAEA has had no access to North Korea since Pyongyang expelled its inspectors in 2009
Former President Donald Trump rejected an offer by regime leader Kim Jong Un to dismantle the Yongbyon site in exchange for sanctions relief when the two met in Hanoi in February 2019. The summit collapsed because Trump wanted Pyongyang to shut down all its nuclear facilities, a move Kim refused to make.
Experts told VOA Korean that the timing of the Yongbyon reactor’s July reactivation may be a test of the Biden administration as it coincided with the beginning of troop withdrawals from Afghanistan, a process that concluded on Monday.
Evans Revere, a former State Department official who has an extensive experience dealing with North Korea, said, “We cannot rule out that the resumption of plutonium production and reprocessing [reactor] at Yongbyon is Pyongyang’s way of reminding the United States of the dangers posed by the nuclear facilities at Yongbyon in order to see what ‘price’ the United States might be willing to pay to freeze or shut down these facilities if negotiations resume.”
David Maxwell, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said restarting the reactor is North Korea’s attempt at “using threats and increased tensions to try to drive the U.S. to dialogue to obtain concessions of sanctions relief.”
Maxwell continued to say, “Kim may assess that the Biden administration needs some kind of foreign policy success and may really want to show progress on North Korea.”
Gary Samore, former White House coordinator for Arms Control and Weapons of Mass Destruction during the Obama administration, said Pyongyang is trying to enhance its leverage with Washington in future negotiations.
“Starting up the five-megawatt reactor gives North Korea more leverage, gives the U.S. more incentive to accept North Korea’s proposal,” Samore said.
Samore added, “At the end of the day, of course, if the two sides can’t come to an agreement, North Korea can always use the extra plutonium for its nuclear weapons program. So the decision to restart the reactor serves both a diplomatic purpose in terms of enhancing North Korean leverage, and also serves a technical purpose in terms of providing more material for its nuclear weapons.”
President Joe Biden has been dealing with the aftermath of its troop withdrawal in Afghanistan since mid-August as the Taliban moved with unanticipated speed to occupy the nation and its capital, Kabul, with little resistance.
Revere said that Pyongyang may increase its military provocations in an attempt to exploit what it sees as a weakened U.S. position.
Revere said, “North Korea may be tempted to view the United States as weak or irresolute in the aftermath of the end of the U.S. military presence in Afghanistan, and this in turn could lead to military adventurism by North Korea.”
Experts, however, do not believe North Korea will make threats that would overstep the U.S. refusal to accept testing intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM) or nuclear weapons.
“An ICBM or nuclear weapons test would push the United States into increasing sanctions pressure on North Korea and make it very difficult for China to push back against the existing U.S. and United Nations sanctions, which are not outcomes that North Korea wants,” said Bruce Bennett, a senior defense analyst at the RAND Corp.
China helps North Korea evade sanctions, particularly with coal exports and petroleum imports, according to the United Nations.
Kim announced in December 2019 that North Korea was ending its self-imposed moratorium on testing long-range missiles and nuclear weapons and demanded concessions from the U.S. Nevertheless, the regime so far has not tested either.
Maxwell said North Korea is likely to raise provocations by carrying out “major mobilization activities” of its conventional military force such as artillery and rocket forces trainings, heightened air defense training, movement of special operation forces and naval vessels, and increased activity along the demilitarized zone (DMZ) separating the two Koreas.
“We will see activities that we can assess as preparations for a possible major attack,” Maxwell said. “This will be somewhat ambiguous because it can be assessed as a major training exercises.”
Talks between Pyongyang and Washington remain largely deadlocked, despite the Biden administration’s attempts to reengage North Korea.
U.S. Special Representative for North Korea Sung Kim met with South Korea’s top nuclear envoy, Noh Kyu-duk, who visited Washington D.C. this week. On Monday, the two discussed ways to bring North Korea to the negotiating table. Kim said he is waiting for a reply from North Korea on the U.S. offer for talks.
RELATED STORIES
East Asia Pacific
IAEA: Renewed Activity at N. Korea Nuclear Reactor 'Deeply Troubling'
The IAEA has had no access to North Korea since Pyongyang expelled its inspectors in 2009
By Reuters
Mon, 08/30/2021 - 02:26 AM
East Asia Pacific
Nuclear Watchdog Says North Korea Appears to Have Restarted Reactor
The International Atomic Energy Agency has had no access to North Korea since Pyongyang expelled its inspectors in 2009
By Reuters
Sun, 08/29/2021 - 06:36 PM
jward
passin' thru
afr.com
China an ‘existential threat’ to US and allies: general
His comments follow those by Australian ambassador to the US, Arthur Sinodinos, that China is now the “pre-eminent threat” and that the threat of September 11-style attacks had eased with more sophisticated surveillance technology.
“The geostrategic challenge in the Indo-Pacific, with the rise of China, is pre-eminent in US minds. It’s pre-eminent in all of our minds,” Mr Sinodinos told the Financial Review this week.
“But to the extent that there’s a terror threat, we’re in a much stronger, more sophisticated position to deal with that threat than we were 20 years ago. We’ve learnt a lot, we’ve deployed assets in new ways to deal with that.”
Last month, Australia joined the United States and other Five Eyes nations to expose in detail the Chinese government’s role in cyberattacks around the world, including this year’s hack of Microsoft Exchange Server email software.
Incursions have also been made this year by China in the Indo-Pacific including Taiwan’s airspace and live-fire navy drills off the coast of Taiwan. China’s economic coercion, in Australia’s case responding to what Beijing states are 14 specific grievances, has led to trade restrictions worth billions of dollars.
“How we band together with like-minded people to deter China’s aims, while still providing the growth and the economic tools that make our people prosperous – to me, that’s probably the biggest story for the next 10 years for the US and Australia,” General Holmes said.
“China will certainly contest the logistics of any kind of deployment – they’ll do it with cyber tools, they’ll do it from space, they’ll do it with electronic warfare, they’ll do everything they can to try to prevent deployment of forces that try to stop them.”
Australia critical
As the ANZUS treaty turns 70 years old, General Holmes, who advises The Roosevelt Group, said reliance on Australia was critical.
“I know that the US would like to be able to rely on opportunities for support and logistics that Australia’s unique position in the world geographically provide across the Pacific.”
General Holmes said that while there were still threats of terrorism, the intelligence capability had changed remarkably in 20 years.
He recalled how he was sitting in the Pentagon when it was hit by a hijacked plane in 2001.
“We watched the World Trade Centre events on television. One of my guys said, this might not be the safest place where we are right now.
“I said something like; ‘don’t worry, nothing ever happens where I am ... this is probably the safest place we could be’. And then shortly after that, we felt the bump.
Rich source
“My friends in our intelligence community tell me that about 50 per cent or perhaps more of the information that we gain to provide intelligence comes from publicly available sources. Publicly available information is a rich source of intel.
“But 20 years ago, when the US invaded Afghanistan, hardly anybody had a cell phone. Now in Afghanistan, there are millions of cell phones.
“We have what’s called National Technical means which I won’t go into, but it allows us to do things that are hard to believe.”
Posted for fair use
www.afr.com
China an ‘existential threat’ to US and allies: general
His comments follow those by Australian ambassador to the US, Arthur Sinodinos, that China is now the “pre-eminent threat” and that the threat of September 11-style attacks had eased with more sophisticated surveillance technology.
“The geostrategic challenge in the Indo-Pacific, with the rise of China, is pre-eminent in US minds. It’s pre-eminent in all of our minds,” Mr Sinodinos told the Financial Review this week.
“But to the extent that there’s a terror threat, we’re in a much stronger, more sophisticated position to deal with that threat than we were 20 years ago. We’ve learnt a lot, we’ve deployed assets in new ways to deal with that.”
Last month, Australia joined the United States and other Five Eyes nations to expose in detail the Chinese government’s role in cyberattacks around the world, including this year’s hack of Microsoft Exchange Server email software.
Incursions have also been made this year by China in the Indo-Pacific including Taiwan’s airspace and live-fire navy drills off the coast of Taiwan. China’s economic coercion, in Australia’s case responding to what Beijing states are 14 specific grievances, has led to trade restrictions worth billions of dollars.
“How we band together with like-minded people to deter China’s aims, while still providing the growth and the economic tools that make our people prosperous – to me, that’s probably the biggest story for the next 10 years for the US and Australia,” General Holmes said.
“China will certainly contest the logistics of any kind of deployment – they’ll do it with cyber tools, they’ll do it from space, they’ll do it with electronic warfare, they’ll do everything they can to try to prevent deployment of forces that try to stop them.”
Australia critical
As the ANZUS treaty turns 70 years old, General Holmes, who advises The Roosevelt Group, said reliance on Australia was critical.
“I know that the US would like to be able to rely on opportunities for support and logistics that Australia’s unique position in the world geographically provide across the Pacific.”
General Holmes said that while there were still threats of terrorism, the intelligence capability had changed remarkably in 20 years.
He recalled how he was sitting in the Pentagon when it was hit by a hijacked plane in 2001.
“We watched the World Trade Centre events on television. One of my guys said, this might not be the safest place where we are right now.
“I said something like; ‘don’t worry, nothing ever happens where I am ... this is probably the safest place we could be’. And then shortly after that, we felt the bump.
Rich source
“My friends in our intelligence community tell me that about 50 per cent or perhaps more of the information that we gain to provide intelligence comes from publicly available sources. Publicly available information is a rich source of intel.
“But 20 years ago, when the US invaded Afghanistan, hardly anybody had a cell phone. Now in Afghanistan, there are millions of cell phones.
“We have what’s called National Technical means which I won’t go into, but it allows us to do things that are hard to believe.”
Posted for fair use
China an ‘existential threat’ to US and allies: general
One of America’s highest-ranking generals says China is a bigger threat than a 9/11-style terrorism attack, echoing views expressed this week by Australia’s ambassador to the US.
jward
passin' thru
Josh Smith
@joshjonsmith
5h
South Korea in 2020: "We have 2-ton warheads" North Korea in March: "Oh yeah? We have 2.5-ton warheads" South Korea today: "Neener neener neener we have 3-ton warheads"
View: https://twitter.com/joshjonsmith/status/1433304518494621698?s=20
@joshjonsmith
5h
South Korea in 2020: "We have 2-ton warheads" North Korea in March: "Oh yeah? We have 2.5-ton warheads" South Korea today: "Neener neener neener we have 3-ton warheads"
View: https://twitter.com/joshjonsmith/status/1433304518494621698?s=20
northern watch
TB Fanatic
China Is Hoarding Crude Again, And That’s Great News For Oil Prices
By Alex Kimani - Sep 02, 2021, 7:00 PM CDT
Oil price
After recording the worst monthly loss this year in August, the oil markets have kicked off trading in September on a much brighter note on a trifecta of positive developments. Crude oil prices have been inching up after OPEC+ agreed to keep its current production agreement in place, in effect maintaining the 400K bbl/day hike scheduled for October, thus signaling that the markets are healthier than earlier feared. Reuters has also reported that OPEC+ will raise its 2022 oil demand growth forecast to 4.2M bbl/day from its previous outlook of 3.28M bbl/day.
Meanwhile, the latest data by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that U.S. crude oil inventories fell much more than expected last week despite domestic production climbing to a 15-month-high. U.S. crude stockpiles fell by 7.2M barrels to 425.4M barrels, ~6% below the five-year average.
But the most encouraging piece of news yet is that crude demand in China has started showing signs of a strong recovery after the country reopened its economy and Beijing moves closer to finalizing a probe into its independent refiners, thus allowing so-called teapots to resume importing crude.
After nearly five months of slower purchases due to a shortage of import quotas, COVID-19 lockdowns that muted fuel consumption and drawdowns from high inventories, demand for spot crude by the world's biggest importer of the commodity is now on a recovery path.
Lockdowns easing
Since April, weak consumption in China as well as a sharp drop in China's refining output to 14-month lows have depressed the prices of staple crude grades from West Africa and Brazil to multi-month lows.
But analysts are now saying that Chinese crude importers are ramping up purchases and even paying higher premiums to secure supplies from November onwards thanks to lockdown restrictions easing.
Source: Bloomberg
About a month ago, authorities in Beijing reimposed massive lockdowns by curtailing public transport and taxi services in 144 of the worst-hit areas by the delta variant nationwide, including train service and subway usage in Beijing.
That seemed like overkill, with less than 1,000 cases of the delta virus reported nationwide and a good 61% of the population already fully vaccinated. However, Beijing opted to employ its tried-and-tested method of targeted lockdown that has been successful in stopping no less than 30 Covid-19 flare-ups in the past. The capital city of Beijing implemented quarantines for visitors from high-risk areas, halted the use of community spaces for entertainment, and also limited the number of visitors allowed at parks and scenic areas.
Chinese authorities also urged people to cancel vacations and business trips, especially those from high-risk areas, and also advised college students to delay their return to school for the new semester.
"Vaccination is not equal to entering a safe or carrying a talisman. Personal protective measures still cannot be relaxed and vaccination cannot replace containment measures. Let's hold on until we score the ultimate victory against the outbreak," Qi Jinli, deputy director of Beijing's Covid-19 response taskforce, said at the time.
Well, it appears that Beijing has come out on top, once again.
"The developments out of China are reigniting expectations that oil demand would start to rise again," said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at Price Futures Group Inc. has told Bloomberg.
Return of the teapots
Three months ago, in a dramatic reversal of fortunes, Beijing announced huge cutbacks in import quotas for the country's private oil refiners. According to Reuters, China's independent refiners were awarded a combined 35.24 million tons in crude oil import quotas in the second batch of quotas this year, a 35% reduction from 53.88 million tons for a similar tranche a year ago.
The big reduction came as part of a government crackdown on private Chinese refiners known as teapots, which have become increasingly dominant over the past five years. This was intended to allow Beijing to more precisely regulate the flow of foreign oil as it doubles down on malpractices such as tax evasion, fuel smuggling, and violations of environmental and emissions rules by independent refiners.
The move was also intended to claw back control of China's crude refining sector from private refiners to state-owned refineries. And it's reminiscent of its earlier crackdown on big tech operations that were getting dangerously powerful and seen to be threatening party politics.
China's teapots have been steadily grabbing market share from entrenched state players such as China Petroleum and Chemical Corporation (NYSE:SNP), also known as Sinopec, and PetroChina Co. (NYSE:PTR) ever since Beijing partially liberalized its oil industry in 2015. Teapots currently control nearly 30% of China's crude refining volumes, up from ~10% in 2013.
But traders are now growing optimistic that Beijing will soon wrap up a probe on the teapots. Indeed, a fourth batch of quota is expected to be issued in September or October, which could revive demand from independent refiners.
Something else working in the teapots' favor is that crude stocks by China's national oil companies are very low, and private refiners could help bridge the shortfall. Imports into China's Shandong province, home to most teapots, fell below 3 million barrels in both July and August, compared with ~3.6 million barrels on average in the first half of 2021.
China's central bank has also said it will try and stabilize the supply of credit and increase the amount of money supporting smaller businesses. There are expectations for further stimulus targeting the infrastructure sector, manufacturing, and real estate after the July slowdown left the economic situation looking bleak.
By Alex Kimani for Oilprice.com
China Is Hoarding Crude Again, And That’s Great News For Oil Prices | OilPrice.com
By Alex Kimani - Sep 02, 2021, 7:00 PM CDT
Oil price
After recording the worst monthly loss this year in August, the oil markets have kicked off trading in September on a much brighter note on a trifecta of positive developments. Crude oil prices have been inching up after OPEC+ agreed to keep its current production agreement in place, in effect maintaining the 400K bbl/day hike scheduled for October, thus signaling that the markets are healthier than earlier feared. Reuters has also reported that OPEC+ will raise its 2022 oil demand growth forecast to 4.2M bbl/day from its previous outlook of 3.28M bbl/day.
Meanwhile, the latest data by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that U.S. crude oil inventories fell much more than expected last week despite domestic production climbing to a 15-month-high. U.S. crude stockpiles fell by 7.2M barrels to 425.4M barrels, ~6% below the five-year average.
But the most encouraging piece of news yet is that crude demand in China has started showing signs of a strong recovery after the country reopened its economy and Beijing moves closer to finalizing a probe into its independent refiners, thus allowing so-called teapots to resume importing crude.
After nearly five months of slower purchases due to a shortage of import quotas, COVID-19 lockdowns that muted fuel consumption and drawdowns from high inventories, demand for spot crude by the world's biggest importer of the commodity is now on a recovery path.
Lockdowns easing
Since April, weak consumption in China as well as a sharp drop in China's refining output to 14-month lows have depressed the prices of staple crude grades from West Africa and Brazil to multi-month lows.
But analysts are now saying that Chinese crude importers are ramping up purchases and even paying higher premiums to secure supplies from November onwards thanks to lockdown restrictions easing.
Source: Bloomberg
About a month ago, authorities in Beijing reimposed massive lockdowns by curtailing public transport and taxi services in 144 of the worst-hit areas by the delta variant nationwide, including train service and subway usage in Beijing.
That seemed like overkill, with less than 1,000 cases of the delta virus reported nationwide and a good 61% of the population already fully vaccinated. However, Beijing opted to employ its tried-and-tested method of targeted lockdown that has been successful in stopping no less than 30 Covid-19 flare-ups in the past. The capital city of Beijing implemented quarantines for visitors from high-risk areas, halted the use of community spaces for entertainment, and also limited the number of visitors allowed at parks and scenic areas.
Chinese authorities also urged people to cancel vacations and business trips, especially those from high-risk areas, and also advised college students to delay their return to school for the new semester.
"Vaccination is not equal to entering a safe or carrying a talisman. Personal protective measures still cannot be relaxed and vaccination cannot replace containment measures. Let's hold on until we score the ultimate victory against the outbreak," Qi Jinli, deputy director of Beijing's Covid-19 response taskforce, said at the time.
Well, it appears that Beijing has come out on top, once again.
"The developments out of China are reigniting expectations that oil demand would start to rise again," said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at Price Futures Group Inc. has told Bloomberg.
Return of the teapots
Three months ago, in a dramatic reversal of fortunes, Beijing announced huge cutbacks in import quotas for the country's private oil refiners. According to Reuters, China's independent refiners were awarded a combined 35.24 million tons in crude oil import quotas in the second batch of quotas this year, a 35% reduction from 53.88 million tons for a similar tranche a year ago.
The big reduction came as part of a government crackdown on private Chinese refiners known as teapots, which have become increasingly dominant over the past five years. This was intended to allow Beijing to more precisely regulate the flow of foreign oil as it doubles down on malpractices such as tax evasion, fuel smuggling, and violations of environmental and emissions rules by independent refiners.
The move was also intended to claw back control of China's crude refining sector from private refiners to state-owned refineries. And it's reminiscent of its earlier crackdown on big tech operations that were getting dangerously powerful and seen to be threatening party politics.
China's teapots have been steadily grabbing market share from entrenched state players such as China Petroleum and Chemical Corporation (NYSE:SNP), also known as Sinopec, and PetroChina Co. (NYSE:PTR) ever since Beijing partially liberalized its oil industry in 2015. Teapots currently control nearly 30% of China's crude refining volumes, up from ~10% in 2013.
But traders are now growing optimistic that Beijing will soon wrap up a probe on the teapots. Indeed, a fourth batch of quota is expected to be issued in September or October, which could revive demand from independent refiners.
Something else working in the teapots' favor is that crude stocks by China's national oil companies are very low, and private refiners could help bridge the shortfall. Imports into China's Shandong province, home to most teapots, fell below 3 million barrels in both July and August, compared with ~3.6 million barrels on average in the first half of 2021.
China's central bank has also said it will try and stabilize the supply of credit and increase the amount of money supporting smaller businesses. There are expectations for further stimulus targeting the infrastructure sector, manufacturing, and real estate after the July slowdown left the economic situation looking bleak.
By Alex Kimani for Oilprice.com
China Is Hoarding Crude Again, And That’s Great News For Oil Prices | OilPrice.com
Well this is definitely going to get interesting......
Posted for fair use.....
/cloudfront-us-east-2.images.arcpublishing.com/reuters/BCPVOW3NARNMJA6TXAQ5NOZMTI.jpg)
www.reuters.com
September 3, 20219:31 AM PDT
Last Updated 2 hours ago
Asia Pacific
Japan's struggling PM Suga steps down, sets stage for new leader
By Antoni Slodkowski and Tetsushi Kajimoto
Suga, who took over after Shinzo Abe resigned last September citing ill health, has seen his approval ratings drop below 30% as the nation struggles with its worst wave of COVID-19 infections ahead of a general election this year.
Suga did not capitalise on his last major achievement - hosting the Olympics, which were postponed months before he took office as coronavirus cases surged.
His decision not to seek reelection as ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) president this month means the party will choose a new leader, who will become prime minister.
There is no clear frontrunner, but the popular minister in charge of Japan's vaccination rollout, Taro Kono, intends to run, broadcaster TBS said on Friday without citing sources. Former foreign minister Fumio Kishida has already thrown his hat in the ring.
Before Abe's record eight-year tenure, Japan had gone through six prime ministers in as many years, including Abe's own troubled first one-year term.
Tokyo stocks jumped on news of Suga's decision, with the benchmark Nikkei (.N225) rising 2% and the broader Topix (.TOPX) hitting its highest levels since 1991.
"I want to focus on coronavirus response, so I told the LDP executive meeting that I've decided not to run in the party leadership race," Suga told reporters. "I judged that I cannot juggle both and I should concentrate on either of them."
He said he would hold a news conference as early as next week.
Suga's abrupt resignation ended a rollercoaster week in which he pulled out all the stops to save his job, including suggestions he would sack his long-term party ally, as well as plans to dissolve parliament and reshuffle party executive and his cabinet.
He is expected to stay on until his successor is chosen in the party election slated for Sept. 29. The winner, assured of being premier due to the LDP's majority in the lower house of parliament, must call the general election by Nov. 28.
Suga has been an important ally for U.S. President Joe Biden in pushing back against China's increasingly assertive behavior and he was the first foreign leader Biden welcomed in person at the White House in April. read more
A State Department spokesperson said Biden was grateful for Suga’s leadership and partnership on shared challenges, including COVID-19, climate change, North Korea, China, and preserving peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait.
"The U.S.-Japan alliance is and will remain ironclad, not just between our governments, but our people," the spokesperson said.
Suga's departure will raise questions about the timing of an in-person summit of the Quad grouping of the United States, India, Japan and Australia seen as a means to counter China that Washington has been looking to host this fall.
read more
RACE FOR LEADER
Koichi Nakano, a political science professor at Sophia University, said Kishida was the front runner for the moment, "but that doesn't mean his victory is assured."
Nakano said Kono, Suga's administrative reform minister, could run if he gets the backing of his faction leader in the party, Finance Minister Taro Aso.
Declaring himself a contender, Kishida, a soft-spoken Hiroshima lawmaker, on Thursday criticised Suga's coronavirus response and urged a stimulus package to combat the pandemic.
Former defence minister Shigeru Ishiba said he was ready to run if the conditions and environment are right. He was a rare LDP critic of Abe during his time as prime minister.
Kono has led Japan's rocky inoculation drive, but remains high on the list of lawmakers voters want to see succeed Suga. Kono has stopped short of declaring his candidacy, telling reporters he wanted to carefully consult with party colleagues first.
A former foreign and defence minister, Kono, 58, is popular with younger voters after building support through Twitter, where he has 2.3 million followers - a rarity in Japanese politics dominated by older men who are less social media-savvy.
Abe's stance will be closely watched given his influence inside the two largest factions of the LDP and among conservative MPs, experts say.
The LDP-led coalition is not expected to lose its lower house majority, but forecasts suggest the LDP could lose the majority that it holds on its own, an outcome that would weaken whoever leads the party next.
"Stock prices are rising based on a view that the chance of LDP's defeat in the general election has diminished because anyone other than Suga will be able to regain popularity," said Toru Suehiro, a senior economist at Daiwa Securities.
Suga's image as a shrewd political operator capable of pushing through reforms and taking on the stodgy bureaucracy propelled his support to 74% when he took office.
He initially won applause for populist promises such as lower mobile phone rates and insurance for fertility treatments. But removing scholars critical of the government from an advisory panel and compromising with a junior coalition partner on policy for healthcare costs for the elderly drew criticism.
His delay in halting a domestic travel programme - which experts say may have helped spread coronavirus around Japan - hit hard, while the public grew weary of states of emergency that hurt businesses.
Reporting by Tokyo bureau; additional reporting by David Brunnstrom in Washington; Editing by Gerry Doyle, William Mallard and Chizu Nomiyama
Posted for fair use.....
Japan's struggling PM Suga steps down, sets stage for new leader
Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga said in a surprise move on Friday he would step down, setting the stage for a new premier after a one-year tenure marred by an unpopular COVID-19 response and sinking public support.
www.reuters.com
September 3, 20219:31 AM PDT
Last Updated 2 hours ago
Asia Pacific
Japan's struggling PM Suga steps down, sets stage for new leader
By Antoni Slodkowski and Tetsushi Kajimoto
- Summary
- Suga's resignation sparks wide open succession race
- Former defence minister Kono throws hat into the ring-media
- Former foreign minister Kishida already in the running
- Former defence minister Ishiba considering a run
Suga, who took over after Shinzo Abe resigned last September citing ill health, has seen his approval ratings drop below 30% as the nation struggles with its worst wave of COVID-19 infections ahead of a general election this year.
Suga did not capitalise on his last major achievement - hosting the Olympics, which were postponed months before he took office as coronavirus cases surged.
His decision not to seek reelection as ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) president this month means the party will choose a new leader, who will become prime minister.
There is no clear frontrunner, but the popular minister in charge of Japan's vaccination rollout, Taro Kono, intends to run, broadcaster TBS said on Friday without citing sources. Former foreign minister Fumio Kishida has already thrown his hat in the ring.
Before Abe's record eight-year tenure, Japan had gone through six prime ministers in as many years, including Abe's own troubled first one-year term.
Tokyo stocks jumped on news of Suga's decision, with the benchmark Nikkei (.N225) rising 2% and the broader Topix (.TOPX) hitting its highest levels since 1991.
"I want to focus on coronavirus response, so I told the LDP executive meeting that I've decided not to run in the party leadership race," Suga told reporters. "I judged that I cannot juggle both and I should concentrate on either of them."
He said he would hold a news conference as early as next week.
Suga's abrupt resignation ended a rollercoaster week in which he pulled out all the stops to save his job, including suggestions he would sack his long-term party ally, as well as plans to dissolve parliament and reshuffle party executive and his cabinet.
He is expected to stay on until his successor is chosen in the party election slated for Sept. 29. The winner, assured of being premier due to the LDP's majority in the lower house of parliament, must call the general election by Nov. 28.
Suga has been an important ally for U.S. President Joe Biden in pushing back against China's increasingly assertive behavior and he was the first foreign leader Biden welcomed in person at the White House in April. read more
A State Department spokesperson said Biden was grateful for Suga’s leadership and partnership on shared challenges, including COVID-19, climate change, North Korea, China, and preserving peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait.
"The U.S.-Japan alliance is and will remain ironclad, not just between our governments, but our people," the spokesperson said.
Suga's departure will raise questions about the timing of an in-person summit of the Quad grouping of the United States, India, Japan and Australia seen as a means to counter China that Washington has been looking to host this fall.
read more
RACE FOR LEADER
Koichi Nakano, a political science professor at Sophia University, said Kishida was the front runner for the moment, "but that doesn't mean his victory is assured."
Nakano said Kono, Suga's administrative reform minister, could run if he gets the backing of his faction leader in the party, Finance Minister Taro Aso.
Declaring himself a contender, Kishida, a soft-spoken Hiroshima lawmaker, on Thursday criticised Suga's coronavirus response and urged a stimulus package to combat the pandemic.
Former defence minister Shigeru Ishiba said he was ready to run if the conditions and environment are right. He was a rare LDP critic of Abe during his time as prime minister.
Kono has led Japan's rocky inoculation drive, but remains high on the list of lawmakers voters want to see succeed Suga. Kono has stopped short of declaring his candidacy, telling reporters he wanted to carefully consult with party colleagues first.
A former foreign and defence minister, Kono, 58, is popular with younger voters after building support through Twitter, where he has 2.3 million followers - a rarity in Japanese politics dominated by older men who are less social media-savvy.
Abe's stance will be closely watched given his influence inside the two largest factions of the LDP and among conservative MPs, experts say.
The LDP-led coalition is not expected to lose its lower house majority, but forecasts suggest the LDP could lose the majority that it holds on its own, an outcome that would weaken whoever leads the party next.
"Stock prices are rising based on a view that the chance of LDP's defeat in the general election has diminished because anyone other than Suga will be able to regain popularity," said Toru Suehiro, a senior economist at Daiwa Securities.
Suga's image as a shrewd political operator capable of pushing through reforms and taking on the stodgy bureaucracy propelled his support to 74% when he took office.
He initially won applause for populist promises such as lower mobile phone rates and insurance for fertility treatments. But removing scholars critical of the government from an advisory panel and compromising with a junior coalition partner on policy for healthcare costs for the elderly drew criticism.
His delay in halting a domestic travel programme - which experts say may have helped spread coronavirus around Japan - hit hard, while the public grew weary of states of emergency that hurt businesses.
Reporting by Tokyo bureau; additional reporting by David Brunnstrom in Washington; Editing by Gerry Doyle, William Mallard and Chizu Nomiyama
northern watch
TB Fanatic
jward
passin' thru
A showdown in the South China Sea continues as China’s stranglehold is called into question by the world’s super powers.
Satellite photos expose a showdown brewing in the South China Sea. Against all assurances, Beijing has armed its artificial island fortresses with aircraft and warships. Now the world is pushing back.
Beijing said it guaranteed free and open access to the South China Sea’s shipping lanes. Beijing said it would never militarise the region. But that’s all changed.
Between May and June, satellite photos found Chinese Y-8Q and KQ-200 anti-submarine and KJ-500 radar command aircraft along with anti-submarine and troop-carrying helicopters had become a permanent feature on the artificial Subi and Mischief Reef island fortresses.
Since then, People’s Liberation Army Navy destroyers and frigates have joined them.
Now a new set of imagery reveals what they’ve been up to.
Hunting submarines. And they’ve had plenty to keep them busy.
Sub-surface tension
Submarines from all over the world have been converging on the disputed South China Sea in support of a 2015 international court of arbitration ruling.
China, it found, has no historical basis for claiming control over the entire 3.5 million square kilometre waterway. And the standardised set of territorial rules agreed upon by the United Nations after World War II still applies to the likes of the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia.
Beijing rejected the ruling.
Now the activities of the combat aircraft and frontline warships at Subi Reef indicate it may be about to take bold new steps in enforcing its claim.
NED-797-subi reef before and after - Before
NED-797-subi reef before and after - After
China passed a new law this week demanding any international vessel that may “endanger the maritime traffic safety of China” must register its presence, schedule and intention: “Operators of submersibles, nuclear vessels, ships carrying radioactive materials and ships carrying bulk oil, chemicals, liquefied gas and other toxic and harmful substances are required to report their detailed information upon their visits to Chinese territorial waters.”
The problem is, nobody is going to reveal to Beijing where their submarines are. Or if they’re nuclear powered or nuclear-armed.
Nobody believes Beijing has the right to demand this information. And nobody agrees with Beijing’s definition of its territorial waters.
Invisible conflict
France revealed earlier this year that its nuclear-powered attack submarine SNA Emeraude had passed through the contested waterway. But not exactly where. “This extraordinary patrol has just completed a passage in the South China Sea. A striking proof of our French Navy’s capacity to deploy far away and for a long time together with our Australian, American and Japanese strategic partners,” Defence Minister Florence Parly tweeted.
Since then, the United States has sent all three of its most advanced submarines – led by the USS Seawolf – into the Pacific. That’s over and above the regular patrols by USS Los Angeles and Virginia class submarines.
And the United Kingdom’s nuclear attack submarine HMS Artful has been somewhere in the area in recent weeks. It’s been supporting the passage of the aircraft carrier HMS Queen Elizabeth.
Australia, Japan, Taiwan, Indonesia, Singapore and South Korea are just some of the regional navies operating diesel-electric submarines.
And while many navies have been reluctant to visibly defy Beijing by sending warships within 12 nautical miles (22km) of its island fortresses, they may have been doing so unseen.
Anti-submarine warfare has been a significant element of both Chinese and US activities in the South China Sea in recent months. Surveillance aircraft from both sides regularly scour its waters. Survey vessels probe its depths.
And that intense surface and above-surface activity may be just the tip of the iceberg.
Escalation clause
Beijing’s new arbitrary disclosure requirements came into effect on September 1. The fallout is yet to be seen.
Exactly what Beijing means by “endanger” isn’t clear, anyway. Nor is the area it expects the law to apply to.
“Such ambiguity is likely deliberate,” University of Indonesia international law researcher Aristyo Rizka Darmawan writes for the Lowy Institute.
China’s definition of its territorial waters specifically names the Spratly Islands as part of its territorial sea. That’s the specific claim the international court of arbitration rejected in favour of the Philippines.
But Beijing’s arbitrary ‘Nine-Dash Line’ claim sweepingly includes almost the entire South China Sea as territorial. And its First Island Chain’ policy adds all of Taiwan and the Japanese-claimed Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea to that grab-bag.
“It remains unclear where China will seek to enforce its new regulations and how the rest of the international community will respond,” says Darmawan.
“What is most important is that China must still guarantee the right of innocent passage and not provoke more tensions in the disputed area of the South China Sea.”
Posted for fair use
South China Sea showdown continues as world pushes back
Satellite photos expose a showdown brewing in the South China Sea. Against all assurances, Beijing has armed its artificial island fortresses with aircraft and warships. Now the world is pushing back.
www.news.com.au
jward
passin' thru
Hmmm
Ali Özkök
@Ozkok_A
Jan Hecker, the German ambassador to China, is dead. Hecker only took office a few days ago. It is currently unclear what the 54-year-old died of. The German government reacts with "deep sadness and consternation".
11:43 PM · Sep 5, 2021·Twitter for iPhone
Ali Özkök
@Ozkok_A
Jan Hecker, the German ambassador to China, is dead. Hecker only took office a few days ago. It is currently unclear what the 54-year-old died of. The German government reacts with "deep sadness and consternation".
11:43 PM · Sep 5, 2021·Twitter for iPhone
jward
passin' thru
India, Australia to boost ties in first 2+2 ministerial talks this week | India News - Times of India
Rajat Pandit / TNN / Sep 7, 2021, 01:57 IST
3-4 minutes
Rajat Pandit / TNN / Sep 7, 2021, 01:57 IST
3-4 minutes
NEW DELHI: India and Australia plan to further crank up their bilateral defence ties with more combat exercises, strengthening cooperation on maritime security and intelligence-sharing, even as they also work together with the US and Japan in the ‘Quad’ strategic grouping in face of China’s aggressive behaviour in the Indo-Pacific.
Defence minister Rajnath Singh will meet his Australian counterpart Peter Dutton on Friday in New Delhi to discuss specific measures to further expand the bilateral defence cooperation. This will be followed by the two defence ministers joining foreign minister S Jaishankar and his counterpart Marise Payne for the first ‘two-plus-two’ ministerial dialogue between the two countries on Saturday.
“Defence Ties with Australia have gained a lot of momentum after the relationship was upgraded to a ‘Comprehensive Strategic Partnership’ in June 2020. Several new steps and exchanges are being discussed,” an official said on Monday.
With Australia now becoming a permanent member of the quadrilateral ‘Malabar’ naval exercise, the 25th edition of which was conducted off Gaum in the western Pacific late last month, Dutton is very keen on India joining his country’s largest biennial wargames called ‘Talisman Sabre’ in 2023, as was earlier reported by TOI. Australia believes it will further consolidate the Quad, which has declared its firm intent to deter any “coercion” in the Indo-Pacific, since the exercise already features the US and Japan as well as other countries like the UK, Canada, South Korea and New Zealand.
On Monday, India and Australia also kicked off the 4th edition of their naval drills ‘Ausindex’ off Darwin. While India has deployed guided-missile frigate INS Shivalik and anti-submarine warfare corvette INS Kadmatt for the exercise, Australia is taking part with frigate HMAS Warramunga and submarine HMAS Rankin as well as F-18A fighter jets and P-8A maritime patrol aircraft.
“Australia and India are comprehensive strategic partners. We share a commitment to increasing the regularity and complexity of our military training so we can be confident in our ability to work effectively to respond to the maritime security needs in our region,” said Australian fleet commander Rear Admiral Mark Hammond.
“Each time our nations come together, we develop further maritime interoperability by exercising more involved warfare serials demonstrating our strong commitment to an open, secure and prosperous Indo-Pacific region,” he added.
Indian Eastern Fleet commander Rear Admiral Tarun Sobti, in turn, said, “This exercise will further strengthen the partnership and interoperability with the Australian navy in the Indo-Pacific. We’re looking forward to adopting the best practices and building on the warfare training standards achieved in the Malabar drills.”
India, Australia to boost ties in first 2+2 ministerial talks this week | India News - Times of India
India News: India and Australia plan to further crank up their bilateral defence ties with more combat exercises, strengthening cooperation on maritime security a
timesofindia.indiatimes.com
jward
passin' thru
China denies it is taking over Afghan military site that was US base
Jack Lau
+ FOLLOW
Published: 9:00pm, 7 Sep, 2021
Updated: 10:39pm, 7 Sep, 2021
Bagram Airfield ended up in Taliban hands after US and Nato forces vacated it. Photo: Xinhua
China has denied suggestions that it is set to take over an Afghan military airfield that
was the United States’ largest base
in the troubled country.
Beijing was not in talks with the Taliban to transfer the right to use Bagram Airfield for operational needs, contrary to media reports, foreign ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said on Tuesday.
“What I can tell everyone is that that is a piece of purely false information,” Wang said.
Nikki Haley, the former US ambassador to the United Nations, had said the US government needed to keep an eye on China after American troops’ withdrawal from
Afghanistan
US troops leave Afghanistan’s Bagram airbase without notifying new Afghan commander
“We need to watch China, because I think you are going to see China make a move for Bagram air force base,” she told Fox News last Wednesday. “And I think they are also making a move in Afghanistan and trying to use Pakistan to get stronger to go against India.”
US forces handed control of the airfield to the Afghan military on July 2. It was surrendered to the Taliban 44 days later.
Located 45km (28 miles) from Kabul, Bagram served as the centre of American military power in Afghanistan for nearly 20 years. It is equipped with facilities including a runway, a 50-bed hospital and a prison capable of holding thousands of people.
China has expressed its hopes that Afghanistan can be stabilised and not be a breeding ground for extremism, especially given Beijing’s fears that the East Turkestan Islamic Movement – a
Xinjiang
separatist group founded by Uygur militants – could spill inside its borders.
The Taliban has maintained warm relations with Beijing since seizing power over most of Afghanistan. The militant group has
described China as a friendly country
and said it would welcome Chinese involvement in rebuilding and developing Afghanistan.
Taliban courts China with eye on development projects in Afghanistan
On Monday, the Chinese foreign ministry did not directly respond when asked whether it was one of six countries invited to an event announcing Afghanistan’s new governance structure, but it reiterated its position on the country.
“We have always respected Afghanistan’s sovereign independence and territorial integrity, supported the Afghan people in seeking a development path suited to the conditions of the country,” Wang said.
“We have always supported Afghanistan in forming an open, inclusive and broadly representative government that follows moderate and stable domestic and foreign policies, resolutely combats all forms of terrorist forces and is on friendly terms with all countries, especially its neighbours.”
please see source for videos
posted for fair use
www.scmp.com
- Foreign ministry dismisses reports of talks with the Taliban to transfer the right to use Bagram Airfield
- Washington’s former UN ambassador Nikki Haley suggested China could ‘make a move for’ the base, which US vacated in July
Jack Lau
+ FOLLOW
Published: 9:00pm, 7 Sep, 2021
Updated: 10:39pm, 7 Sep, 2021
Bagram Airfield ended up in Taliban hands after US and Nato forces vacated it. Photo: Xinhua
China has denied suggestions that it is set to take over an Afghan military airfield that
was the United States’ largest base
in the troubled country.
Beijing was not in talks with the Taliban to transfer the right to use Bagram Airfield for operational needs, contrary to media reports, foreign ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said on Tuesday.
“What I can tell everyone is that that is a piece of purely false information,” Wang said.
Nikki Haley, the former US ambassador to the United Nations, had said the US government needed to keep an eye on China after American troops’ withdrawal from
Afghanistan
US troops leave Afghanistan’s Bagram airbase without notifying new Afghan commander
“We need to watch China, because I think you are going to see China make a move for Bagram air force base,” she told Fox News last Wednesday. “And I think they are also making a move in Afghanistan and trying to use Pakistan to get stronger to go against India.”
US forces handed control of the airfield to the Afghan military on July 2. It was surrendered to the Taliban 44 days later.
Located 45km (28 miles) from Kabul, Bagram served as the centre of American military power in Afghanistan for nearly 20 years. It is equipped with facilities including a runway, a 50-bed hospital and a prison capable of holding thousands of people.
China has expressed its hopes that Afghanistan can be stabilised and not be a breeding ground for extremism, especially given Beijing’s fears that the East Turkestan Islamic Movement – a
Xinjiang
separatist group founded by Uygur militants – could spill inside its borders.
The Taliban has maintained warm relations with Beijing since seizing power over most of Afghanistan. The militant group has
described China as a friendly country
and said it would welcome Chinese involvement in rebuilding and developing Afghanistan.
Taliban courts China with eye on development projects in Afghanistan
On Monday, the Chinese foreign ministry did not directly respond when asked whether it was one of six countries invited to an event announcing Afghanistan’s new governance structure, but it reiterated its position on the country.
“We have always respected Afghanistan’s sovereign independence and territorial integrity, supported the Afghan people in seeking a development path suited to the conditions of the country,” Wang said.
“We have always supported Afghanistan in forming an open, inclusive and broadly representative government that follows moderate and stable domestic and foreign policies, resolutely combats all forms of terrorist forces and is on friendly terms with all countries, especially its neighbours.”
please see source for videos
posted for fair use
China denies it is taking over Afghan military site that was US base
Beijing dismisses reports of talks with Taliban to transfer right to use Bagram base after US’ former UN ambassador Nikki Haley said China could ‘make a move’.
www.scmp.com
jward
passin' thru
on the other hand,. . .
"if" they do, we gave it to em.
Is it possible all the big boys got together n planned out
how to re-balance the great game and pay off our debt
and re-balance their internal liabilities (i.e. useless eaters)
at the same time...a new war MO that wastes the old n wasted,
instead of the young vital ones...n Covid n Joe were the unholy result??
Nah.
China Weighing Occupation of Former U.S. Air Base at Bagram: Sources
Building on friendly relations Beijing has secured with the new Taliban government in Afghanistan, China is now considering new ways to expand influence and embarrass the U.S.
By Paul D. Shinkman
|
Sept. 7, 2021, at 5:53 p.m.
China Weighing Bagram Occupation
More
A view of the Bagram Airfield base after all U.S. and NATO forces evacuated in Parwan province, eastern Afghanistan, on July 8, 2021.(Xinhua News Agency/Getty Images)
The Chinese military is currently conducting a feasibility study about the effect of sending workers, soldiers and other staff related to its foreign economic investment program known as the Belt and Road Initiative in the coming years to Bagram, according to a source briefed on the study by Chinese military officials, who spoke to U.S. News on the condition of anonymity.
A spokesman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry on Tuesday issued a carefully crafted denial of plans for an imminent takeover of the military airfield roughly an hour from Kabul, first established by the Soviets during their own occupation in Afghanistan and which at the height of the U.S. military presence there was its busiest in the world.
"What I can tell everyone is that that is a piece of purely false information," Wang Wenbin told reporters Tuesday morning. China has repeatedly denied many of its other military deployments beyond its borders.
"if" they do, we gave it to em.
Is it possible all the big boys got together n planned out
how to re-balance the great game and pay off our debt
and re-balance their internal liabilities (i.e. useless eaters)
at the same time...a new war MO that wastes the old n wasted,
instead of the young vital ones...n Covid n Joe were the unholy result??
Nah.
China Weighing Occupation of Former U.S. Air Base at Bagram: Sources
Building on friendly relations Beijing has secured with the new Taliban government in Afghanistan, China is now considering new ways to expand influence and embarrass the U.S.
By Paul D. Shinkman
|
Sept. 7, 2021, at 5:53 p.m.
China Weighing Bagram Occupation
More
A view of the Bagram Airfield base after all U.S. and NATO forces evacuated in Parwan province, eastern Afghanistan, on July 8, 2021.(Xinhua News Agency/Getty Images)
The Chinese military is currently conducting a feasibility study about the effect of sending workers, soldiers and other staff related to its foreign economic investment program known as the Belt and Road Initiative in the coming years to Bagram, according to a source briefed on the study by Chinese military officials, who spoke to U.S. News on the condition of anonymity.
A spokesman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry on Tuesday issued a carefully crafted denial of plans for an imminent takeover of the military airfield roughly an hour from Kabul, first established by the Soviets during their own occupation in Afghanistan and which at the height of the U.S. military presence there was its busiest in the world.
"What I can tell everyone is that that is a piece of purely false information," Wang Wenbin told reporters Tuesday morning. China has repeatedly denied many of its other military deployments beyond its borders.
Posted for fair use.....
/cloudfront-us-east-2.images.arcpublishing.com/reuters/TSJBCT4VXNOJNOIOVCQA5PFLQE.jpg)
www.reuters.com
September 8, 20211:30 AM PDT
Last Updated 2 hours ago
Asia Pacific
Analysis: S.Korea blazes new path with 'most potent' conventional missile submarine
By Josh Smith
Last week, South Korea conducted ejection tests of the SLBM from its recently launched Dosan Ahn Chang-ho KSS-III submarine, Yonhap news agency reported, showcasing a unique capability. It is the only nation to field such weapons without nuclear warheads. read more
Seoul says the conventionally armed missile is designed to help counter any attack by North Korea. Analysts say the unusual weapon also checks many other boxes, including reducing South Korea's reliance on the United States and providing a foundation if it ever decided to pursue a nuclear arsenal.
South Korea's ministry of defence declined to confirm the tests, but said it is pursuing upgraded missile systems to counter North Korea.
South Korea's sub-launched missile, believed to be a variant of the country's ground-based Hyunmoo-2B ballistic missile, with a flight range of about 500 kilometres (311 miles), is smaller than the nuclear-tipped SLBMs developed by the North.
H.I. Sutton, a specialist in military submarines, said the South's technology is more advanced, however, and called the combination of an SLBM with the submarine's quiet Air Independent Propulsion system a potential "game changer."
"In these respects it is the most potent conventionally powered and armed submarine in the world," he wrote in a report for Naval News.
South Korea's SLBM is one of a wide range of conventional missiles that the country is developing to augment its "Overwhelming Response" doctrine, said Ankit Panda, a senior fellow at the U.S.-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. The doctrine is an operational plan for strikes to pre-empt a North Korean attack or incapacitate its leadership in a major conflict.
"The SLBM is nominally justified in these terms, granting South Korean planners a highly survivable conventional second strike option in the face of North Korean attack; these missile systems would punish North Korea's leadership in the case of an attack on the south," he said.
Although submarine-launched ballistic missiles are usually associated with nuclear weapons, that does not mean South Korea has them or is pursuing them, he said.
"However, should the alliance with the United States fray in the future or South Korea's national defences needs drastically shift, these SLBMs would provide an immediately available foundation for a limited, survivable nuclear force," he added.
A POLITICAL ISSUE
For now it is just an academic debate, but one that has made its way into the current South Korean presidential campaign, with some conservative candidates arguing that the country should seek a nuclear deterrent either on its own or by hosting American weapons, as some NATO allies do.
The United States removed its battlefield nuclear weapons from South Korea in 1991, but has continued to protect its ally under a "nuclear umbrella."
But recent years were tumultuous for the U.S.-South Korea alliance, with then-U.S. President Donald Trump pressing Seoul to pay more for the American military presence there, and even suggesting that countries, including South Korea and Japan, may need to develop their own nuclear weapons.
“It is unrealistic to prevent us from our own nuclear armament when North Korea has not given up its nuclear weapons yet," presidential candidate Yoo Seung-min said last month.
The SLBM programme doesn't appear to be part of elaborate plan to hedge toward nuclear weapons, said Joshua Pollack, a researcher at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies who co-wrote a report last year warning that advances in conventional missiles in both Koreas have helped create a new pathway for a crisis.
"It simply looks like South Korea is trying to catch up with North Korea," he said. "For decades, each side has been determined to show that it is more advanced and capable."
In July 2019 North Korean state media showed leader Kim Jong Un inspecting a large, newly built submarine. While North Korea did not describe the submarine's weapons, analysts said the apparent size of the vessel indicated it was designed to carry ballistic missiles.
Later that year, North Korea said it had successfully test-fired a new SLBM from the sea, and in January it showcased a new SLBM design during a military parade in Pyongyang.
One Western diplomatic source said it was likely that other countries would follow South Korea's lead.
So far the test launch has not elicited public responses from officials in North Korea, Japan, China or other nearby countries, but South Korea’s neighbours are bound to ask tough questions, Pollack said.
"The loser here is the entire region, in the throes of a multi-sided missile race," he said.
Reporting by Josh Smith. Editing by Gerry Doyle
Analysis: S.Korea blazes new path with 'most potent' conventional missile submarine
South Korea's development of a conventional submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) is a ground-breaking move, analysts said, with implications for North Korea, the U.S. alliance, and even the prospect of nuclear weapons in South Korea.
www.reuters.com
September 8, 20211:30 AM PDT
Last Updated 2 hours ago
Asia Pacific
Analysis: S.Korea blazes new path with 'most potent' conventional missile submarine
By Josh Smith
- Summary
- Submarine-launched ballistic missile tested last week
- S.Korea only country without nuclear weapons to field SLBM
- Missile designed to target bunkers, leadership in N.Korea
- New missile raises questions about nuclear goals - analysts
Last week, South Korea conducted ejection tests of the SLBM from its recently launched Dosan Ahn Chang-ho KSS-III submarine, Yonhap news agency reported, showcasing a unique capability. It is the only nation to field such weapons without nuclear warheads. read more
Seoul says the conventionally armed missile is designed to help counter any attack by North Korea. Analysts say the unusual weapon also checks many other boxes, including reducing South Korea's reliance on the United States and providing a foundation if it ever decided to pursue a nuclear arsenal.
South Korea's ministry of defence declined to confirm the tests, but said it is pursuing upgraded missile systems to counter North Korea.
South Korea's sub-launched missile, believed to be a variant of the country's ground-based Hyunmoo-2B ballistic missile, with a flight range of about 500 kilometres (311 miles), is smaller than the nuclear-tipped SLBMs developed by the North.
H.I. Sutton, a specialist in military submarines, said the South's technology is more advanced, however, and called the combination of an SLBM with the submarine's quiet Air Independent Propulsion system a potential "game changer."
"In these respects it is the most potent conventionally powered and armed submarine in the world," he wrote in a report for Naval News.
South Korea's SLBM is one of a wide range of conventional missiles that the country is developing to augment its "Overwhelming Response" doctrine, said Ankit Panda, a senior fellow at the U.S.-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. The doctrine is an operational plan for strikes to pre-empt a North Korean attack or incapacitate its leadership in a major conflict.
"The SLBM is nominally justified in these terms, granting South Korean planners a highly survivable conventional second strike option in the face of North Korean attack; these missile systems would punish North Korea's leadership in the case of an attack on the south," he said.
Although submarine-launched ballistic missiles are usually associated with nuclear weapons, that does not mean South Korea has them or is pursuing them, he said.
"However, should the alliance with the United States fray in the future or South Korea's national defences needs drastically shift, these SLBMs would provide an immediately available foundation for a limited, survivable nuclear force," he added.
A POLITICAL ISSUE
For now it is just an academic debate, but one that has made its way into the current South Korean presidential campaign, with some conservative candidates arguing that the country should seek a nuclear deterrent either on its own or by hosting American weapons, as some NATO allies do.
The United States removed its battlefield nuclear weapons from South Korea in 1991, but has continued to protect its ally under a "nuclear umbrella."
But recent years were tumultuous for the U.S.-South Korea alliance, with then-U.S. President Donald Trump pressing Seoul to pay more for the American military presence there, and even suggesting that countries, including South Korea and Japan, may need to develop their own nuclear weapons.
“It is unrealistic to prevent us from our own nuclear armament when North Korea has not given up its nuclear weapons yet," presidential candidate Yoo Seung-min said last month.
The SLBM programme doesn't appear to be part of elaborate plan to hedge toward nuclear weapons, said Joshua Pollack, a researcher at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies who co-wrote a report last year warning that advances in conventional missiles in both Koreas have helped create a new pathway for a crisis.
"It simply looks like South Korea is trying to catch up with North Korea," he said. "For decades, each side has been determined to show that it is more advanced and capable."
In July 2019 North Korean state media showed leader Kim Jong Un inspecting a large, newly built submarine. While North Korea did not describe the submarine's weapons, analysts said the apparent size of the vessel indicated it was designed to carry ballistic missiles.
Later that year, North Korea said it had successfully test-fired a new SLBM from the sea, and in January it showcased a new SLBM design during a military parade in Pyongyang.
One Western diplomatic source said it was likely that other countries would follow South Korea's lead.
So far the test launch has not elicited public responses from officials in North Korea, Japan, China or other nearby countries, but South Korea’s neighbours are bound to ask tough questions, Pollack said.
"The loser here is the entire region, in the throes of a multi-sided missile race," he said.
Reporting by Josh Smith. Editing by Gerry Doyle
jward
passin' thru
American Affairs
@AmericanAffrs
1h
The recent tug-of-war between U.S. and Chinese interests in Panama foreshadows many more conflicts to come. In many countries, while the U.S. sleeps, the New Silk Road is the only game in town.
https://twitter.com/AmericanAffrs/status/1435572580434550790?s=20
@AmericanAffrs
1h
The recent tug-of-war between U.S. and Chinese interests in Panama foreshadows many more conflicts to come. In many countries, while the U.S. sleeps, the New Silk Road is the only game in town.
https://twitter.com/AmericanAffrs/status/1435572580434550790?s=20
northern watch
TB Fanatic
Kerry Reduced To Zoom As CCP Rolls Out Red Carpet for Taliban
Climate czar claims ‘constructive’ Zoom meetings
U.S. secretary of state John Kerry speaks with Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi prior to the US and China formally joining the Paris Climate deal at the West Lake State House in Hangzhou on September 3, 2016. / Getty Images
Jack Beyrer
Free Beacon
September 8, 2021 5:00 am
Chinese diplomats relegated Biden climate czar John Kerry to a Zoom conference the same day China joined Taliban leaders in a photo-op to pledge "friendly relations" with the terror group.
Kerry was denied face-to-face interactions with senior Chinese officials such as Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Vice Premier Han Zheng. China instead dispatched a junior-level climate official to meet with the former secretary of state in the city of Tianjin. Kerry’s bungled visit coincided with Beijing's open-arms embrace of Taliban leadership at an in-person visit in Qatar, affirming China’s interest in furthering "friendly relations" to fill the vacuum in Afghanistan left by America's withdrawal.
Kerry met separately with Yi and Zheng over Zoom. The Chinese officials reportedly bristled at Kerry’s suggestions to decouple climate change from other issues fraught with tensions between China and the United States, leaving no immediate results from the meetings. One expert told Voice of America the Taliban received a better welcome than Kerry.
The Biden climate czar, however, said the meetings proved "very constructive and detailed," but deferred to Secretary of State Antony Blinken and President Joe Biden to set a timetable for further talks with the Chinese.
The White House did not return a request for comment about their plans for future climate talks with Beijing. The State Department declined to comment.
Sen. Ted Cruz (R., Texas) told the Washington Free Beacon that Beijing is thriving due to Kerry's debacle and the Biden administration's broader failures in dealing with China.
"The Chinese Communist Party is having a field day with Joe Biden’s weakness and naïveté," Cruz said. "The President sent John Kerry to Beijing to do what he does best, which is make deals with the Chinese Communist Party to get American technology and sanctions relief. Even then, the Chinese had more time for the Taliban than for Biden or Kerry."
The Taliban government has been quick to embrace China since overthrowing the U.S.-backed Ghani regime within weeks of America's military exit. The Taliban announced Tuesday their intentions to join Chinese international trade projects taking place along a corridor to Pakistan and complimented China as a "trustworthy friend."
Kerry arrived in China even as other senior administration officials such as Vice President Kamala Harris canceled international travel in the wake of the catastrophic withdrawal from Afghanistan. Rep. Mark Green (R., Tenn.) told the Free Beacon narrowing ties between Beijing and the Taliban should surprise nobody and pose a major threat.
"The Chinese Communist Party sees an opportunity with the Taliban's takeover of Afghanistan to further expand its reach," Green said. "China's growing economic and military strength coupled with their aggressive attempt to dominate regional waters makes them the greatest threat to the United States and to the international order. It’s past time for the international community to stand together against Beijing’s rising aggression."
Kerry—along with several far-left advocacy groups—has pleaded with the Chinese and the Biden administration to divorce climate change from issues such as human rights and military aggression, which dominate the Sino-American relationship.
Chinese officials warned Kerry the Biden administration is guilty of a "major strategic miscalculation toward China" and expressed no interest in separating climate from other issues.
"While President Biden lives in a foreign policy fantasyland—pandering to China on climate and COVID origins—Communist China is strengthening partnerships with terrorists," warned Sen. Joni Ernst (R., Iowa). "Red China has no respect for the Biden Administration."
The visit also may deal a major blow to Kerry’s broader climate agenda with China. The administration's attempts to broach climate change with Beijing have already Invited scrutiny due to the Chinese green energy industry’s links to slave labor.
Kerry Reduced To Zoom As CCP Rolls Out Red Carpet for Taliban (freebeacon.com)
Climate czar claims ‘constructive’ Zoom meetings
U.S. secretary of state John Kerry speaks with Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi prior to the US and China formally joining the Paris Climate deal at the West Lake State House in Hangzhou on September 3, 2016. / Getty Images
Jack Beyrer
Free Beacon
September 8, 2021 5:00 am
Chinese diplomats relegated Biden climate czar John Kerry to a Zoom conference the same day China joined Taliban leaders in a photo-op to pledge "friendly relations" with the terror group.
Kerry was denied face-to-face interactions with senior Chinese officials such as Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Vice Premier Han Zheng. China instead dispatched a junior-level climate official to meet with the former secretary of state in the city of Tianjin. Kerry’s bungled visit coincided with Beijing's open-arms embrace of Taliban leadership at an in-person visit in Qatar, affirming China’s interest in furthering "friendly relations" to fill the vacuum in Afghanistan left by America's withdrawal.
Kerry met separately with Yi and Zheng over Zoom. The Chinese officials reportedly bristled at Kerry’s suggestions to decouple climate change from other issues fraught with tensions between China and the United States, leaving no immediate results from the meetings. One expert told Voice of America the Taliban received a better welcome than Kerry.
The Biden climate czar, however, said the meetings proved "very constructive and detailed," but deferred to Secretary of State Antony Blinken and President Joe Biden to set a timetable for further talks with the Chinese.
The White House did not return a request for comment about their plans for future climate talks with Beijing. The State Department declined to comment.
Sen. Ted Cruz (R., Texas) told the Washington Free Beacon that Beijing is thriving due to Kerry's debacle and the Biden administration's broader failures in dealing with China.
"The Chinese Communist Party is having a field day with Joe Biden’s weakness and naïveté," Cruz said. "The President sent John Kerry to Beijing to do what he does best, which is make deals with the Chinese Communist Party to get American technology and sanctions relief. Even then, the Chinese had more time for the Taliban than for Biden or Kerry."
The Taliban government has been quick to embrace China since overthrowing the U.S.-backed Ghani regime within weeks of America's military exit. The Taliban announced Tuesday their intentions to join Chinese international trade projects taking place along a corridor to Pakistan and complimented China as a "trustworthy friend."
Kerry arrived in China even as other senior administration officials such as Vice President Kamala Harris canceled international travel in the wake of the catastrophic withdrawal from Afghanistan. Rep. Mark Green (R., Tenn.) told the Free Beacon narrowing ties between Beijing and the Taliban should surprise nobody and pose a major threat.
"The Chinese Communist Party sees an opportunity with the Taliban's takeover of Afghanistan to further expand its reach," Green said. "China's growing economic and military strength coupled with their aggressive attempt to dominate regional waters makes them the greatest threat to the United States and to the international order. It’s past time for the international community to stand together against Beijing’s rising aggression."
Kerry—along with several far-left advocacy groups—has pleaded with the Chinese and the Biden administration to divorce climate change from issues such as human rights and military aggression, which dominate the Sino-American relationship.
Chinese officials warned Kerry the Biden administration is guilty of a "major strategic miscalculation toward China" and expressed no interest in separating climate from other issues.
"While President Biden lives in a foreign policy fantasyland—pandering to China on climate and COVID origins—Communist China is strengthening partnerships with terrorists," warned Sen. Joni Ernst (R., Iowa). "Red China has no respect for the Biden Administration."
The visit also may deal a major blow to Kerry’s broader climate agenda with China. The administration's attempts to broach climate change with Beijing have already Invited scrutiny due to the Chinese green energy industry’s links to slave labor.
Kerry Reduced To Zoom As CCP Rolls Out Red Carpet for Taliban (freebeacon.com)
jward
passin' thru
Hu Xijin 胡锡进
@HuXijin_GT
China state-affiliated media
Hopefully when Chinese warships pass through the Caribbean Sea or show up near Hawaii and Guam one day, the US will uphold the same standard of freedom of navigation. That day will come soon.
7:03 AM · Sep 8, 2021·Twitter Web App
northern watch
TB Fanatic
on the other hand,. . .
"if" they do, we gave it to em.
Is it possible all the big boys got together n planned out
how to re-balance the great game and pay off our debt
and re-balance their internal liabilities (i.e. useless eaters)
at the same time...a new war MO that wastes the old n wasted,
instead of the young vital ones...n Covid n Joe were the unholy result??
Nah.
China Weighing Occupation of Former U.S. Air Base at Bagram: Sources
Building on friendly relations Beijing has secured with the new Taliban government in Afghanistan, China is now considering new ways to expand influence and embarrass the U.S.
By Paul D. Shinkman
|
Sept. 7, 2021, at 5:53 p.m.
China Weighing Bagram Occupation
More
A view of the Bagram Airfield base after all U.S. and NATO forces evacuated in Parwan province, eastern Afghanistan, on July 8, 2021.(Xinhua News Agency/Getty Images)
The Chinese military is currently conducting a feasibility study about the effect of sending workers, soldiers and other staff related to its foreign economic investment program known as the Belt and Road Initiative in the coming years to Bagram, according to a source briefed on the study by Chinese military officials, who spoke to U.S. News on the condition of anonymity.
A spokesman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry on Tuesday issued a carefully crafted denial of plans for an imminent takeover of the military airfield roughly an hour from Kabul, first established by the Soviets during their own occupation in Afghanistan and which at the height of the U.S. military presence there was its busiest in the world.
"What I can tell everyone is that that is a piece of purely false information," Wang Wenbin told reporters Tuesday morning. China has repeatedly denied many of its other military deployments beyond its borders.
If the Chinese get the Bagram Airfield base, they have a strategic air base for operations in the Persian Gulf region with their long range bombers.
jward
passin' thru
Yup- as Walid Phares suggests, it's swiss watch perfect- thus bolstering idea it's all been intentional.
northern watch
TB Fanatic
jward
passin' thru
China threatens to send warships inside US territorial waters
by Tom Rogan, Commentary Writer |
| September 08, 2021 05:00 PM
Just In...
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China, on Wednesday, threatened to send warships into U.S. territorial waters.
The Global Times called on People's Liberation Army Navy warships to travel to "U.S. military bases in the Asia-Pacific and the U.S. allies' coastlines to conduct close-in reconnaissance operations and declare freedom of navigation." The editorial added that "the U.S. will definitely see the PLA show up at its doorstep in the not-too-distant future."
This isn't simple ranting. The Global Times operates under Central Foreign Affairs Commission Director Yang Jiechi . Its words represent a credible threat.
Why is China so furious?
It laments the "naked provocation" of a U.S. Navy destroyer's transit, on Wednesday, within 12 miles of a Chinese artificial island in the South China Sea. Yang's mouthpiece warns that "only by making the U.S. have a taste of its own medicine can we touch the nerves of the U.S. and its allies, and reshape the Western world's understanding of U.S. bullying in the South China Sea."
This assessment bears little relation to reality. China's claims of ownership over the South China Sea are both geographically absurd and politically imperialist . Instead, China is escalating its militarization of the sea for two distinctly unjustified reasons. First, to make these waters safe for unilateral Chinese communist resource extraction. Second, to extract political concessions from other nations in return for their access to the sea. China's leverage is the $3.5 trillion-$4 trillion in annual trade flows that move through the South China Sea.
The Trump and Biden administrations have rightly resisted China's actions with U.S. naval actions such as that on Wednesday. They recognize China's threat to trade, sovereign government, and a key principle of the post-Second World War U.S.-led international order: free transit. But while America's European allies have been unwilling to conduct the U.S.-style transits that so upset China, nations such as Australia, India, Japan, and Vietnam are moving closer to the U.S. position. China thus senses it may face a more robust multilateral challenge.
The language Beijing has employed, here, of conducting "freedom of navigation" activities off "U.S. military bases in the Asia-Pacific and the U.S. allies' coastlines" is clearly intended as a threat to send PLA warships within 12 miles of Guam, Australia, and Japan. (While the Philippines is a U.S. treaty ally, its president has made himself into a human pet for Xi Jinping).
Regardless, U.S. Navy transits of international waters are one thing. PLA transits within 12 miles of sovereign U.S. or allied coasts would be a very different matter. Put another way, where the U.S. is walking through a public park, China claims a right to seize public parks and then engage in home invasions. The reality is clear: By its intent and international law, any Chinese incursion as threatened would constitute an act of provocation bordering on war.
China has no justification to blur the waters.
Posted for fair use
Please see source for additional video
www.washingtonexaminer.com
by Tom Rogan, Commentary Writer |
| September 08, 2021 05:00 PM
Just In...
Americans don’t need trillions in spending to get back to work
The CDC’s forever war on gun owners
How court-imposed fines and fees hurt our criminal justice system
Will Herschel Walker unite Georgia voters?
Former CIA official announces bid to oust Elise Stefanik from House
Brother of fallen firefighter has made it his life's mission to remember sacrifices of 9/11
Gain-of-function research: Evidence mounts
Heartbeat away: Roe v. Wade endangered
China, on Wednesday, threatened to send warships into U.S. territorial waters.
The Global Times called on People's Liberation Army Navy warships to travel to "U.S. military bases in the Asia-Pacific and the U.S. allies' coastlines to conduct close-in reconnaissance operations and declare freedom of navigation." The editorial added that "the U.S. will definitely see the PLA show up at its doorstep in the not-too-distant future."
This isn't simple ranting. The Global Times operates under Central Foreign Affairs Commission Director Yang Jiechi . Its words represent a credible threat.
Why is China so furious?
It laments the "naked provocation" of a U.S. Navy destroyer's transit, on Wednesday, within 12 miles of a Chinese artificial island in the South China Sea. Yang's mouthpiece warns that "only by making the U.S. have a taste of its own medicine can we touch the nerves of the U.S. and its allies, and reshape the Western world's understanding of U.S. bullying in the South China Sea."
This assessment bears little relation to reality. China's claims of ownership over the South China Sea are both geographically absurd and politically imperialist . Instead, China is escalating its militarization of the sea for two distinctly unjustified reasons. First, to make these waters safe for unilateral Chinese communist resource extraction. Second, to extract political concessions from other nations in return for their access to the sea. China's leverage is the $3.5 trillion-$4 trillion in annual trade flows that move through the South China Sea.
The Trump and Biden administrations have rightly resisted China's actions with U.S. naval actions such as that on Wednesday. They recognize China's threat to trade, sovereign government, and a key principle of the post-Second World War U.S.-led international order: free transit. But while America's European allies have been unwilling to conduct the U.S.-style transits that so upset China, nations such as Australia, India, Japan, and Vietnam are moving closer to the U.S. position. China thus senses it may face a more robust multilateral challenge.
The language Beijing has employed, here, of conducting "freedom of navigation" activities off "U.S. military bases in the Asia-Pacific and the U.S. allies' coastlines" is clearly intended as a threat to send PLA warships within 12 miles of Guam, Australia, and Japan. (While the Philippines is a U.S. treaty ally, its president has made himself into a human pet for Xi Jinping).
Regardless, U.S. Navy transits of international waters are one thing. PLA transits within 12 miles of sovereign U.S. or allied coasts would be a very different matter. Put another way, where the U.S. is walking through a public park, China claims a right to seize public parks and then engage in home invasions. The reality is clear: By its intent and international law, any Chinese incursion as threatened would constitute an act of provocation bordering on war.
China has no justification to blur the waters.
Posted for fair use
Please see source for additional video
China threatens to send warships inside US territorial waters - Washington Examiner
China, on Wednesday, threatened to send warships into U.S. territorial waters. The Global Times called on People's Liberation Army Navy warships to travel to "U.S. military bases in the Asia-Pacific and the U.S. allies' coastlines to conduct close-in reconnaissance operations and declare freedom...
www.washingtonexaminer.com
northern watch
TB Fanatic
northern watch
TB Fanatic
China and Pakistan to Increase Counter-Terrorism Coordination with the Afghan Taliban
Publication: Terrorism Monitor Volume: 19 Issue: 17
By: Syed Fazl-e Haider
September 7, 2021 06:12 PM Age: 2 days
Vehicles passing through customs on China-Pakistan border (Source: Wikimedia Commons)
On July 14, thirteen people, including nine Chinese nationals and four Pakistanis, were killed and 28 others were injured when a bus carrying them to a construction site of the Dasu hydropower project fell into a ravine following an explosion in the Upper Kohistan area in northern Pakistan (Dawn, July 15). After investigation, both Pakistan and China have confirmed that the bus blast was a terrorist attack. This confirmation was, however, made after several twists and turns by Chinese and Pakistani authorities, which are concerned that the incoming Taliban government in Kabul might embolden terrorist groups operating in neighboring Afghanistan.
Was the July 14 Incident a Terrorist Attack, or Accident?
Pakistan’s Foreign Office had initially described the incident as a bus accident caused by mechanical failure. Islamabad then stepped back from its earlier position. This was probably under pressure from Beijing, which urged Islamabad to conduct a more thorough investigation and claimed that initial investigations could not rule out terrorist involvement in the bus tragedy (Geo TV, July 17).
China, for its part, sent a 15-member team of investigators to Pakistan to deal with the aftermath of the bus incident. Later, Pakistani authorities claimed that the incident was a planned terrorist attack days before a meeting of the Joint Coordination Committee of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). The meeting, which was scheduled for July 16, was postponed due to the bus blast (Dawn, July 17).
Chinese media also warned that those attacking Chinese nationals would pay a heavy price. An editorial in the state-owned nationalist tabloid Global Times stated, “if Pakistan’s strength is insufficient, China’s missiles and special forces could also directly participate in operations to eliminate threats against Chinese in Pakistan with the consent of Pakistan. We will set an example as a deterrent” (Global Times, July 16).
The investigations involved high-level meetings between Pakistani and Chinese officials during visits to Beijing in July from Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi and Director General Lt. Gen. Faiz Hameed of the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), Pakistan’s intelligence agency. The Dasu terrorist attack raised concerns in Beijing and Islamabad over the security of the $62 billion CPEC project, which is a main component of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) (Dawn, July 24).
About two weeks after the attack, the Chinese and Pakistani investigations finally concluded that the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM), whose self-given name is the Turkistan Islamic Party (TIP), and the outlawed Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), also known as the Pakistani Taliban, had carried out the July 14 terrorist attack (Express Tribune, July 28). Islamabad also placed blame on the Indian and now former Afghan intelligence agencies for the attack, as Pakistan believes that the TTP has been funded by India and the now defunct Afghan government. Foreign Minister Qureshi also told the media that China was satisfied with Pakistan’s findings (Dawn, August 12).
Beijing and Islamabad Pressure the Afghan Taliban to Crack Down on Terrorism
A delegation of the Afghan Taliban led by Taliban negotiator and then-deputy leader (now chief political leader of the Taliban-controlled Afghan state) Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar visited China on Beijing’s invitation in July (Express Tribune, September 3). The delegation held a meeting with Foreign Minister Wang Yi, who stated that ETIM was a threat to China’s national security. He asked the Afghan Taliban to crack down on the group, which reportedly has bases in Afghanistan (Express Tribune, July 28).
Both Beijing and Islamabad have placed two demands before the Afghan Taliban: first, it must completely distance itself from the TTP; and second, it must launch a full-fledged crackdown on terrorist groups, particularly organizations hostile to China and Pakistan. These include TTP and ETIM, which have bases in the ungoverned areas of Afghanistan bordering Pakistan. While Islamabad has political leverage over the Afghan Taliban, Beijing has financial leverage.
Both countries also warned the Afghan Taliban of consequences if they failed to meet these demands (Express Tribune, July 28). The Afghan Taliban see China as a “friend” of Afghanistan and want China to invest in reconstruction work. The Taliban’s spokesman, Suhail Shaheen, vowed in July that the group would no longer allow safe haven for China’s Uyghur separatist fighters, some of whom had previously sought refuge in Afghanistan under the previous Taliban administration (South China Morning Post, July 9). Since capturing Kabul, the Taliban have reiterated that China is their main partner and investor in reconstruction and development and have indicated their interest in expanding Beijing’s BRI to Afghanistan (Express Tribune, September 2).
Conclusion
No group has claimed the July 14 incident in Dasu, and as a result the identity of the perpetrator remains a mystery. Investigations by China and Pakistan indicated the involvement of TTP in the attack, likely because both TTP and Baloch separatists have targeted Chinese nationals and Chinese interests in Pakistan in the past. However, the involvement of ETIM, which has little capability of targeting Chinese interests in Pakistan, would be surprising. The alleged terrorist attack nevertheless sent a message to Beijing that Chinese nationals engaged in development projects, and particularly those related to CPEC in Pakistan, are not safe, and that Islamabad is unable to provide security to Chinese workers and projects in the country.
China may in the future seek to establish a greater Chinese security presence at strategic points along the CPEC route that enters Pakistan via Gilgit-Baltistan from Xinjiang province and extends to Gwadar port in the country’s southwest. China could also provide military assistance to the new Taliban government in Afghanistan (instead of putting boots on ground) as a means of strengthening its counterterrorism muscle and securing its regional interests. This could help the Afghan Taliban to deal with the TTP and ETIM if they are deemed to be continuing to target Chinese interests in Pakistan.
China and Pakistan to Increase Counter-Terrorism Coordination with the Afghan Taliban - Jamestown
Publication: Terrorism Monitor Volume: 19 Issue: 17
By: Syed Fazl-e Haider
September 7, 2021 06:12 PM Age: 2 days
Vehicles passing through customs on China-Pakistan border (Source: Wikimedia Commons)
On July 14, thirteen people, including nine Chinese nationals and four Pakistanis, were killed and 28 others were injured when a bus carrying them to a construction site of the Dasu hydropower project fell into a ravine following an explosion in the Upper Kohistan area in northern Pakistan (Dawn, July 15). After investigation, both Pakistan and China have confirmed that the bus blast was a terrorist attack. This confirmation was, however, made after several twists and turns by Chinese and Pakistani authorities, which are concerned that the incoming Taliban government in Kabul might embolden terrorist groups operating in neighboring Afghanistan.
Was the July 14 Incident a Terrorist Attack, or Accident?
Pakistan’s Foreign Office had initially described the incident as a bus accident caused by mechanical failure. Islamabad then stepped back from its earlier position. This was probably under pressure from Beijing, which urged Islamabad to conduct a more thorough investigation and claimed that initial investigations could not rule out terrorist involvement in the bus tragedy (Geo TV, July 17).
China, for its part, sent a 15-member team of investigators to Pakistan to deal with the aftermath of the bus incident. Later, Pakistani authorities claimed that the incident was a planned terrorist attack days before a meeting of the Joint Coordination Committee of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). The meeting, which was scheduled for July 16, was postponed due to the bus blast (Dawn, July 17).
Chinese media also warned that those attacking Chinese nationals would pay a heavy price. An editorial in the state-owned nationalist tabloid Global Times stated, “if Pakistan’s strength is insufficient, China’s missiles and special forces could also directly participate in operations to eliminate threats against Chinese in Pakistan with the consent of Pakistan. We will set an example as a deterrent” (Global Times, July 16).
The investigations involved high-level meetings between Pakistani and Chinese officials during visits to Beijing in July from Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi and Director General Lt. Gen. Faiz Hameed of the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), Pakistan’s intelligence agency. The Dasu terrorist attack raised concerns in Beijing and Islamabad over the security of the $62 billion CPEC project, which is a main component of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) (Dawn, July 24).
About two weeks after the attack, the Chinese and Pakistani investigations finally concluded that the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM), whose self-given name is the Turkistan Islamic Party (TIP), and the outlawed Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), also known as the Pakistani Taliban, had carried out the July 14 terrorist attack (Express Tribune, July 28). Islamabad also placed blame on the Indian and now former Afghan intelligence agencies for the attack, as Pakistan believes that the TTP has been funded by India and the now defunct Afghan government. Foreign Minister Qureshi also told the media that China was satisfied with Pakistan’s findings (Dawn, August 12).
Beijing and Islamabad Pressure the Afghan Taliban to Crack Down on Terrorism
A delegation of the Afghan Taliban led by Taliban negotiator and then-deputy leader (now chief political leader of the Taliban-controlled Afghan state) Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar visited China on Beijing’s invitation in July (Express Tribune, September 3). The delegation held a meeting with Foreign Minister Wang Yi, who stated that ETIM was a threat to China’s national security. He asked the Afghan Taliban to crack down on the group, which reportedly has bases in Afghanistan (Express Tribune, July 28).
Both Beijing and Islamabad have placed two demands before the Afghan Taliban: first, it must completely distance itself from the TTP; and second, it must launch a full-fledged crackdown on terrorist groups, particularly organizations hostile to China and Pakistan. These include TTP and ETIM, which have bases in the ungoverned areas of Afghanistan bordering Pakistan. While Islamabad has political leverage over the Afghan Taliban, Beijing has financial leverage.
Both countries also warned the Afghan Taliban of consequences if they failed to meet these demands (Express Tribune, July 28). The Afghan Taliban see China as a “friend” of Afghanistan and want China to invest in reconstruction work. The Taliban’s spokesman, Suhail Shaheen, vowed in July that the group would no longer allow safe haven for China’s Uyghur separatist fighters, some of whom had previously sought refuge in Afghanistan under the previous Taliban administration (South China Morning Post, July 9). Since capturing Kabul, the Taliban have reiterated that China is their main partner and investor in reconstruction and development and have indicated their interest in expanding Beijing’s BRI to Afghanistan (Express Tribune, September 2).
Conclusion
No group has claimed the July 14 incident in Dasu, and as a result the identity of the perpetrator remains a mystery. Investigations by China and Pakistan indicated the involvement of TTP in the attack, likely because both TTP and Baloch separatists have targeted Chinese nationals and Chinese interests in Pakistan in the past. However, the involvement of ETIM, which has little capability of targeting Chinese interests in Pakistan, would be surprising. The alleged terrorist attack nevertheless sent a message to Beijing that Chinese nationals engaged in development projects, and particularly those related to CPEC in Pakistan, are not safe, and that Islamabad is unable to provide security to Chinese workers and projects in the country.
China may in the future seek to establish a greater Chinese security presence at strategic points along the CPEC route that enters Pakistan via Gilgit-Baltistan from Xinjiang province and extends to Gwadar port in the country’s southwest. China could also provide military assistance to the new Taliban government in Afghanistan (instead of putting boots on ground) as a means of strengthening its counterterrorism muscle and securing its regional interests. This could help the Afghan Taliban to deal with the TTP and ETIM if they are deemed to be continuing to target Chinese interests in Pakistan.
China and Pakistan to Increase Counter-Terrorism Coordination with the Afghan Taliban - Jamestown
northern watch
TB Fanatic
northern watch
TB Fanatic
RT: 0.59 minutes
Talk about "spin"......