ALERT The Winds of War Blow in Korea and The Far East

jward

passin' thru
sg.news.yahoo.com

Frantic hunt for Indonesian submarine as rescuers hone in on radar contact
Sonny Tumbelaka

4-5 minutes


Indonesia's desperate search for a missing submarine and its crew of 53 honed in on a radar contact Friday, with just hours to go before the stricken vessel's oxygen reserves ran out.
The ramped-up hunt comes as Australia and the United States are set to join the search off the coast of Bali where the sub disappeared more than two days ago during training exercises.

Late Thursday, the military said it picked up signs of an unidentified object with high magnetism at a depth of between 50 and 100 metres (165 to 330 feet).

Ships equipped with sonar-tracking equipment were deployed in the hopes that the object could be the KRI Nanggala 402, which was equipped with oxygen reserves that could last until early Saturday, authorities said.
"We've only got until 3:00 am tomorrow (Saturday) so we're maximising all of our efforts today," said Indonesian military spokesman Achmad Riad.

"Hopefully there will be a bright spot."
But an oil spill spotted where the submarine was thought to have submerged pointed to possible fuel-tank damage, fanning fears of a deadly disaster.
There are also concerns that the submarine could have sunk to depths believed to be as much as 700 metres (2,300 feet) -- well below what it was built to withstand.
The German-built vessel was scheduled to conduct live torpedo exercises when it asked for permission to dive. It lost contact shortly after.

On Thursday, the US military said it would send airborne teams to help in the search, while Australia said two ships were on their way to assist.
Neighbouring Singapore and Malaysia have already dispatched ships that are expected to arrive at the weekend, including the city-state's MV Swift Rescue -- a submarine rescue vessel.
India said Thursday it had sent a ship to assist in the hunt.
- 'Very limited oxygen' -
But hopes of finding the crew alive were fading fast.

"If there is serious damage on the boat itself, it could potentially mean a few things, for example, there will be very limited spaces for the crew with very limited oxygen," said Collin Koh, a naval affairs specialist and research fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore.
"It could also mean that the reserve tanks for the oxygen might potentially be damaged as well. So it will further reduce the oxygen level."
Submarines are equipped to prevent carbon dioxide buildup, but if the equipment was damaged that could also pose a serious risk, Koh added.
"It's not just about whether there will be enough oxygen, but it's also about the level of carbon dioxide within the interior that could determine the fate of the submariners," he said.

While Indonesia has not previously suffered a major submarine disaster, other countries have been struck by accidents in the past.
Among the worst was the 2000 sinking of the Kursk, the pride of Russia's Northern Fleet.
That submarine was on manoeuvres in the Barents Sea when it sank with the loss of all 118 aboard. An inquiry found a torpedo had exploded, detonating all the others.
Most of its crew died instantly but some survived for several days -- with a few keeping heart-breaking diaries written in blood to their loved ones -- before suffocating.

In 2003, 70 Chinese naval officers and crew were killed, apparently suffocated, in an accident on a Ming-class submarine during exercises in 2003.
Five years later, 20 people were killed by poisonous gas when a fire extinguishing system was accidentally activated on a Russian submarine being tested in the Sea of Japan.
And in 2018, authorities found the wreckage of an Argentine submarine that had gone missing a year earlier with 44 sailors aboard.
Posted for fair use
:( :( :(
Reuters
@Reuters

19m

Search for missing Indonesian submarine enters second day as neighbours offer help http://reut.rs/3sEJA1r
TimeforThorium
@vleeskroket

11m
Replying to
@Reuters
Hope #Indonesia is smart and already ordered #Boskalis and/or #Mammoet to be present ASAP to lift the #submarine and hopefully able to save crew. Don't make same mistake as with the #Kursk (too late). #Bali
View: https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1385089766971031553?s=20
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Posted for fair use.....

Reactors being built by China could yield weapons-grade plutonium: US admiral
Concerns rise but Beijing says nuclear programme is for peaceful purposes
  • Published
    8 hours ago
WASHINGTON • A new generation of nuclear power facilities that China is developing could produce large amounts of plutonium that could be used to make nuclear weapons, the head of the US Strategic Command (StratCom) warned lawmakers this week.

China is developing fast breeder reactors and reprocessing facilities as it seeks to reduce dependence on coal, a top source of carbon emissions. But the plants also produce plutonium that could be used to make nuclear weapons. The first fast breeder reactor is projected to come on line in 2023.

"With a fast breeder reactor, you now have a very large source of weapons grade plutonium available to you, that will change the upper bounds of what China could choose to do if they wanted to, in terms of further expansion of their nuclear capabilities," Navy Admiral Charles Richard, commander of StratCom, told the Senate Armed Services Committee on Tuesday.

StratCom oversees the US nuclear weapons arsenal.

There is no evidence that China intends to divert its potential plutonium stockpile to weapons use, but concern has grown as Beijing is expected to at least double its number of nuclear warheads over the next decade from the low 200s.
China says its nuclear programme is for peaceful purposes.

The Chinese embassy in Washington did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Last month, a report called China's Civil Nuclear Sector: Ploughshares to Swords, said the country has started building a second plant to reprocess spent nuclear fuel that could be commissioned before 2030.

Adm Richard said US officials learnt recently about how quickly China is moving to build its civilian nuclear programme. About a week ago "we became aware of that and started the process to understand the implications", he said.

Mr Christopher Ford, a former nonproliferation official at the State Department under president Donald Trump, said US officials may not be able to do much on the issue besides denounce it and "point out how destabilising it is in the region... and put pressure on China not to do this economically needless and strategically dangerous thing".

Nuclear waste reprocessing has not been practised for decades in the United States after president Jimmy Carter halted it on proliferation concerns.

REUTERS

Join ST's Telegram channel here and get the latest breaking news delivered to you.

A version of this article appeared in the print edition of The Straits Times on April 23, 2021, with the headline 'Reactors being built by China could yield weapons-grade plutonium: US admiral'. Subscribe
 

jward

passin' thru
Japan to host first joint ‘war games’ with US, France
Military exercise, running from May 11 to 17, will be the first large-scale drill in Japan involving ground troops from all three countries

The US Army, left, and the Japanese Self-Defence Forces (SDF) military vehicles parade during a ceremony at a Japanese base north of Tokyo in 2018 [File: Kim Kyung-Hoon/Reuters]

The US Army, left, and the Japanese Self-Defence Forces (SDF) military vehicles parade during a ceremony at a Japanese base north of Tokyo in 2018 [File: Kim Kyung-Hoon/Reuters]
24 Apr 2021

Japan will hold a joint military drill with US and French troops in the country’s southwest next month, the defence minister has announced, as China’s actions in regional waters raise concern.
The exercise, running from May 11 to 17, will be the first large-scale exercise in Japan involving ground troops from all three countries, the Japanese Ground Self-Defense Force (JGSDF) said in a statement on Friday.

US slams China’s ‘destabilising’ South China Sea military flightsChina drills in disputed South China Sea as US naval patrol growsBiden, Suga commit to take on China’s challenges in the PacificAs Japan’s Suga meets Biden, China is the elephant in the room

It comes as Tokyo seeks to deepen defence cooperation beyond its key US ally to counter Beijing’s growing assertiveness in the East and South China Seas.
“France shares the vision of a free and open Indo-Pacific,” Defence Minister Nobuo Kishi told reporters.
“By strengthening cooperation between Japan, the United States and France, we’d like to further improve the tactics and skills of the Self-Defense Forces in defending remote island territories,” he said.





Paris has strategic interests in the Indo-Pacific where it has territories, including the French island of Reunion in the Indian Ocean and French Polynesia in the South Pacific.
The joint drills will be held at the JGSDF’s Kirishima training ground and Camp Ainoura in the Kyushu region and include amphibious operation exercises.

Threats from China
Last week, Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga and US President Joe Biden pledged to stand firm together against China and step up cooperation including on technology.
The two leaders also agreed to oppose any attempts “to change the status quo by force or coercion in the East and South China Seas”.

Biden’s first face-to-face meeting with a foreign leader was also intended to invigorate joint efforts between the US, Japan, Australia and India, an informal alliance known as “the Quad”, which the new US administration views as a bulwark against China in the Indo-Pacific.
The US has accused China of “destabilising” the region with its construction of artificial islands, as well as naval and air facilities in the South China Sea.

Japan has long said it feels threatened by China’s vast military resources and territorial disputes.
Joe Biden meets Japan’s PM in his first in-person summit with a foreign leader. Here’s why it matters As Japan’s Suga meets Biden, China is the elephant in the room
— Al Jazeera English (@AJEnglish) April 16, 2021

It is particularly concerned by Chinese activity after the Japanese-administered Senkaku islands, which Beijing claims and calls the Diaoyu.
Washington has reiterated in recent months that the US-Japan Security Treaty covers the disputed islands.
China claims the majority of the South China Sea, invoking its so-called “nine-dash line” to justify what it has said are historic rights to the key trade waterway.
Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan all contest parts of China’s declared territory in the sea.
An international tribunal in The Hague in 2016 invalidated China’s claims in the South China Sea in a first-ever ruling, also saying Chinese reclamation activities in the Spratly Islands are illegal. Beijing rejected the decision.
Source: AFP, News Agencies
Please see site for video
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jward

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:(

JATOSINT
@Jatosint



Replying to
@Jatosint
UPDATE -Nanggala's hull has been found crushed/damaged at 09:04 AM UTC +9 at depth of 838 meters. All hands lost. -Submarine Escape Suite can be seen (object), indicating an escape attempt by the crew -Navy hopes that the hull can be salvage & raised for investigation
View: https://twitter.com/Jatosint/status/1386275422678130690?s=20


JATOSINT
@Jatosint

12m


Replying to
@Jatosint
*UTC+8 -Nanggala broke into three large parts - The hull was detected by KRI Rigel (933) and the RoV was from MV Swift Rescue
 

jward

passin' thru
Indo-Pacific News - Watching the CCP-China Threat
@IndoPac_Info

12m

How #Australia could take the Port of #Darwin back from #Chinese hands after the controversial Belt & Road deal was scrapped Marise Payne could tear up a 100-year lease between the Port of Darwin & China after she tore up Victoria's Belt & Road last week
The Northern Territory Government signed a 99-year lease for the Port of Darwin to a Chinese-owned company in 2015. Peter Dutton said on Sunday it was just one of the thousands of leases with overseas companies that Ms Payne was examining.
View: https://twitter.com/IndoPac_Info/status/1386288723931721730?s=20
 

Publius

TB Fanatic
sg.news.yahoo.com

Frantic hunt for Indonesian submarine as rescuers hone in on radar contact
Sonny Tumbelaka

4-5 minutes


Indonesia's desperate search for a missing submarine and its crew of 53 honed in on a radar contact Friday, with just hours to go before the stricken vessel's oxygen reserves ran out.
The ramped-up hunt comes as Australia and the United States are set to join the search off the coast of Bali where the sub disappeared more than two days ago during training exercises.

Late Thursday, the military said it picked up signs of an unidentified object with high magnetism at a depth of between 50 and 100 metres (165 to 330 feet).

Ships equipped with sonar-tracking equipment were deployed in the hopes that the object could be the KRI Nanggala 402, which was equipped with oxygen reserves that could last until early Saturday, authorities said.
"We've only got until 3:00 am tomorrow (Saturday) so we're maximising all of our efforts today," said Indonesian military spokesman Achmad Riad.

"Hopefully there will be a bright spot."
But an oil spill spotted where the submarine was thought to have submerged pointed to possible fuel-tank damage, fanning fears of a deadly disaster.
There are also concerns that the submarine could have sunk to depths believed to be as much as 700 metres (2,300 feet) -- well below what it was built to withstand.
The German-built vessel was scheduled to conduct live torpedo exercises when it asked for permission to dive. It lost contact shortly after.

On Thursday, the US military said it would send airborne teams to help in the search, while Australia said two ships were on their way to assist.
Neighbouring Singapore and Malaysia have already dispatched ships that are expected to arrive at the weekend, including the city-state's MV Swift Rescue -- a submarine rescue vessel.
India said Thursday it had sent a ship to assist in the hunt.
- 'Very limited oxygen' -
But hopes of finding the crew alive were fading fast.

"If there is serious damage on the boat itself, it could potentially mean a few things, for example, there will be very limited spaces for the crew with very limited oxygen," said Collin Koh, a naval affairs specialist and research fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore.
"It could also mean that the reserve tanks for the oxygen might potentially be damaged as well. So it will further reduce the oxygen level."
Submarines are equipped to prevent carbon dioxide buildup, but if the equipment was damaged that could also pose a serious risk, Koh added.
"It's not just about whether there will be enough oxygen, but it's also about the level of carbon dioxide within the interior that could determine the fate of the submariners," he said.

While Indonesia has not previously suffered a major submarine disaster, other countries have been struck by accidents in the past.
Among the worst was the 2000 sinking of the Kursk, the pride of Russia's Northern Fleet.
That submarine was on manoeuvres in the Barents Sea when it sank with the loss of all 118 aboard. An inquiry found a torpedo had exploded, detonating all the others.
Most of its crew died instantly but some survived for several days -- with a few keeping heart-breaking diaries written in blood to their loved ones -- before suffocating.

In 2003, 70 Chinese naval officers and crew were killed, apparently suffocated, in an accident on a Ming-class submarine during exercises in 2003.
Five years later, 20 people were killed by poisonous gas when a fire extinguishing system was accidentally activated on a Russian submarine being tested in the Sea of Japan.
And in 2018, authorities found the wreckage of an Argentine submarine that had gone missing a year earlier with 44 sailors aboard.
Posted for fair use



Well they found the submarine today and in very deep water and the sub broke up into three parts so no survivors.
 

jward

passin' thru
Militant Activity in Indonesia and Pakistan Highlights China’s International Security Challenges
Lucas Webber

5-7 minutes



Two recent incidents illustrate the developing militant threat posed to Chinese nationals and foreign interests in Asia, namely a foiled plot to attack Chinese-owned businesses in Indonesia and a suicide vehicle bombing possibly targeting a Chinese diplomatic delegation in Pakistan. The magnitude of China’s rise as well as the jihadist response to Beijing’s policies and expanding international influence are trends to monitor.

Indonesia Plot
In early April, the South China Morning Post (SCMP) reported on a series of counter-terrorism raids and suspect confessions following the recent Islamist attacks in Indonesia. The operations targeted supporters of the Islamic Defender Front (FPI), a banned religious organization, who allegedly plotted against Chinese-owned businesses, shops run by ethnically Chinese Indonesians, as well as police and military forces.
One of the detained described the anti-China attitudes shared by his Koranic study group:
“We had many discussions about the country being in a state where it was already controlled by China … industries being controlled by China … Finally, my friends … urged me to carry out bombings at Chinese industries located in Indonesia.”
A second suspect confessed his intent to bomb Chinese-owned shops.
Researchers view these developments as part of a broader historical trend of domestic hostility toward ethnic Chinese-Indonesians (approximately 5% of national population) and Chinese nationals. Jihadists have sought to leverage cultural tension, which, according to the Centre for Radicalism and Deradicalisation Studies (PAKAR), has only been exacerbated with the Covid-19 pandemic and associated economic downturn. Over the years, PAKAR has identified at least five plots targeting Chinese commercial assets and Chinese-Indonesians.

Indonesian Islamic State (IS) supporters have frequently threatened China, and the IS-linked perpetrator who stabbed former chief security minister Wiranto in 2019 had allegedly discussed attacking Chinese workers. More recently, in August of 2020, police arrested a group of Jemaah Islamiah members who were reportedly plotting to attack Chinese shop owners. The suspects are said to have selected the target over fears about communism spreading in the country.

The SCMP report claims extremists are “also angered by the repression of Uyghur Muslims in China and Myanmar’s Rohingya crisis.” PAKAR’s executive director Mohamad Adhe Bhakti adds, the Rohingya issue “somehow puts ethnic Indonesian-Chinese within the FPI’s sight, as the majority of them are Buddhists.”
Iwa Maulana, a researcher at the Center for Detention Studies in Jakarta, believes there are economic issues fueling anti-Chinese sentiment:
“Those people in question have personal struggles like a difficult life, no earnings … and now they have a target, Chinese industries, which are framed as the source of their grievances.”

Pakistan Bombing
The Pakistani Taliban (known also as Tehrik-e-Taliban or TTP) conducted a suicide vehicle bombing at the Serena Hotel in Quetta, which killed five people and wounded at least 12 others. A Chinese delegation, led by ambassador Nong Rong, had been staying at the hotel but was not present at the time of attack; the blast occurred mere minutes before the party was set to return.

The TTP claimed responsibility for the bombing through their Umar Media wing, though did not explicitly mention the Chinese diplomatic mission. In a preliminary statement, the group specified a meeting of “locals and foreigners” as the intended target, while the organization’s official release touted their martyr’s success in striking “police officers and other high ups,” thus confirming the “strong military leadership of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan and its Intelligence might.” TTP spokesman Muhammad Khurasani concluded by accusing the media of misguiding “the nation by childishly hiding information on the type of attack and its target.”

The TTP’s inconsistent messaging in the wake of the bombing has raised questions about the strategic aims of the operation. It is unclear whether the Chinese delegation was, in fact, the intended target or if it was by mere coincidence they were checked into the hotel.

Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan has a history of anti-China rhetoric and has targeted Chinese nationals in the past. The group has framed China as an imperialistic and colonizing power, has criticized Islamabad’s relations with Beijing, and has lamented China’s domestic security policy in Xinjiang. They have also been known to host Uyghur militants belonging to the Turkestan Islamic Party (TIP) and al-Qaeda elements who are overtly hostile to Beijing.
Quetta, the location of the hotel car bombing, is the capital city of Bolochistan province — a region that contains a number of active jihadist and separatist militant groups.

Baloch and Sindhi militants have been most active in targeting Chinese nationals and interests in Balochistan, with an emphasis on the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a signature component of Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). They view China as expansionist, a plunderer of the region’s natural resources, and a key supporter of the Pakistani government and military — narratives that sometimes appear in jihadist propaganda as well.

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jward

passin' thru
China Does Not Have to Be America’s Enemy in the Middle East - War on the Rocks
Ashley Rhoades and Dalia Dassa Kaye

9-11 minutes


The reporting has been feverish. “China sets sights on Middle East with Iran co-operation deal,” reads a BBC headline. The New York Times reports that “China, with $400 Billion Iran Deal, Could Deepen Influence in Mideast.” Indeed, just in time for the Iranian new year, China and Iran inked a comprehensive strategic partnership deal in which China promised to boost its investment in Iranian infrastructure across various sectors in exchange for a steady supply of oil. With American foreign policy increasingly viewed through the lens of great-power competition with China, it is easy to see how the deal could only be bad news for U.S. interests.

But what’s really going on? Are China and Iran actually joining forces against the United States? Does the recent agreement between Beijing and Tehran signal the start of a new Cold War-style competition in the Middle East? How should U.S. officials think about Chinese influence in the region?
Based on initial reporting, the Sino-Iranian deal is premised on a sizable but unconfirmed amount of Chinese investment in Iran in exchange for a guaranteed and possibly discounted supply of Iranian oil over a 25-year period. If public statements by China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi can be taken at face value, the agreement codifies a longstanding informal alliance and lays the foundation for deepened cooperation between the two countries, particularly on the economic front.

But significant Chinese investment in Iran, whatever the scale, does not herald the creation of a “China-Iran axis” as some have posited. Indeed, the level of concern in the United States over this development is overblown and could even be unproductive should it spike U.S. animosity toward China in the region. While China threatens U.S. interests in the Indo-Pacific, the United States does not need to consider China an adversary in the Middle East.

Tempting as it may be to brand all Chinese activity as nefarious in nature, China’s actions in the region are not always damaging to U.S. interests. Sometimes, the United States may even find overlapping interests with China given that both countries have a stake in containing conflicts and instability. And, importantly, an uptick in Chinese influence does not necessarily erode U.S. power in the region. As it contends with multiple challenges around the globe, the United States should look for potential opportunities to cooperate with China even as it seeks to compete on other fronts.

China’s Enduring Interest in the Middle East
The deal between China and Iran is not a sudden or unexpected development. China’s involvement in the Middle East has been steadily increasing over the last two decades, and a strategic agreement with Iran has been in the works for years. The U.S. withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal may have further incentivized Iran to expand its relationship with China, but that was likely not the primary catalyst for this tightening in relations. China’s economic boom throughout the 1990s prompted it to turn its attention to the Middle East — both as a source of raw materials to fuel its industrial base and a source of new markets to which it could channel exports.

The Middle East has emerged as China’s most strategically important region beyond its immediate backyard in the Indo-Pacific. It is China’s largest source for oil, of which it consumed 650.1 million metric tons in 2019. But it is Saudi Arabia and Iraq, not Iran, that are China’s largest oil suppliers, accounting for 15 and 9 percent of imports, respectively, in 2019. Iran sent just 17.8 million tons of crude oil to China in 2020 and early 2021, only accounting for about 3 percent of China’s oil imports. (Beijing primarily has its eye on securing Iranian energy resources as a backstop in the event of a conflict with the United States.) The Middle East’s prime location also could provide China with valuable land and sea connectivity to Asia, Europe, and parts of Africa for its Belt and Road Initiative.

Chinese and Iranian officials agree on one important thing: They’d like to sideline U.S. power and influence. Iran opposes the U.S. force presence in the region and supports non-state militia groups that regularly attack U.S. interests, particularly in neighboring Iraq. China, meanwhile, has opportunistically sought to work with any willing partners in the Middle East, regardless of their relations with the United States, in order to deepen its profit and influence.

Limits of Sino-Iranian Cooperation Present Opportunities for Washington
China and Iran do not share enough interests to support an enduring partnership. Iran is just one part of China’s larger interests in the Middle East, and Chinese influence in the region faces some hard limits. China has to balance relationships with multiple countries that don’t see eye-to-eye, including Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Israel. And China was concerned about a growing anti-Iran regional alignment when Arab Gulf states like the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain agreed to normalize relations through the Abraham Accords. China’s deepening relationship with Israel — which spans diplomacy, trade, construction, education, science, technology, and tourism — creates a particularly difficult context for its expanding relations with Iran.

When assessing the Sino-Iranian relationship, it’s useful to note that Iran is not China’s number one economic partner in the region. China sells more arms to U.S. partners in the Middle East (i.e., Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates) than it does to Iran. Iran has never accounted for more than 1.2 percent of China’s total foreign trade volume, behind both Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Iran also lags behind the United Arab Emirates as a destination for Chinese foreign direct investment. And Iranians are notably resistant to economic dependence on China and tend to view Chinese products as inferior to Western ones. Indeed, the strategic agreement with China has spurred domestic debate in Iran — and not always in China’s favor.

Not all Chinese economic investments in the Middle East should concern U.S. policymakers. Certainly, some could be used to undermine U.S. interests — China’s pursuit to embed surveillance technologies in so-called “smart cities,” for instance, has worrying implications for human rights throughout the Middle East. But other investments (e.g., in infrastructure, development, and reconstruction) may spur regional growth. Rather than expend energy and scarce resources on infeasible goals such as trying to “push” China out of the region, the United States might try to mitigate the negative aspects of China’s involvement and rebalance its own investments in these areas.

Looking Ahead
The recent deal between China and Iran is likely not a game-changer for the United States, and a Cold War-like rivalry with China in the Middle East isn’t a foregone conclusion. Ultimately, China needs the Middle East to remain stable to feed its oil dependence and reap any rewards from its investments. As a result, the United States might even find opportunities to cooperate with China in the region, even while competing elsewhere.

For instance, China and the United States can cooperate on advancing nonproliferation objectives in the Middle East. Neither country would benefit from Iran developing nuclear weapons, which would raise tensions and could cause a regional arms race. For its part, China showed no signs of resisting renewed nuclear diplomacy in Vienna as the Biden administration seeks a U.S. return to the Iran nuclear deal in a compliance-for-compliance arrangement. Likewise, neither country has an interest in prolonging devastating civil wars in the Middle East or permitting escalation of maritime conflicts that can disrupt global shipping. Humanitarian aid and disaster relief operations and antipiracy patrols present further opportunities for cooperation in the Middle East.

There might even be space for cooperation in counter-terrorism efforts specific to that region given Beijing’s professed concerns about the threat global terrorist networks pose to its expatriates and investments abroad. But such potential cooperation would have to be carefully considered given China’s expansive view of the proper use of “counter-terrorism,” most particularly its current persecution of innocent Uyghur civilians in its own country, including mass incarceration of an estimated 1 to 1.5 million people.

U.S. policymakers may find it worthwhile to consider a set of reimagined policy choices in the Middle East, including being strategic about where and how to confront China and leaving openings for cooperation with its global competitor when interests overlap. Doing so will be politically difficult, especially given how unpopular China and Iran are on Capitol Hill and elsewhere. Nevertheless, U.S. officials should remember that not every move by China in the region will undermine American geopolitical interests. Instead, Washington should have a clear-eyed view about what it seeks to accomplish in the Middle East and defend those interests vigorously, but it should also work with China in the region when it’s useful to do so.

Ashley Rhoades is a defense analyst at the RAND Corporation. Dalia Dassa Kaye is a fellow at the Wilson Center and the former director of the RAND Center for Middle East Public Policy. They are co-authors of a new RAND report, Reimagining U.S. Strategy in the Middle East.

 

jward

passin' thru



Indo-Pacific News - Watching the CCP-China Threat
@IndoPac_Info

2h


Five Eyes split demands #Australia reset with #NewZealand New Zealand's drift towards #China is also a warning that the bilateral relationship requires an urgent reset if New Zealand & other Pacific states, are to be pulled back from China’s orbit.
As the smaller of the Five Eyes members, New Zealand was the natural target for China’s coercive efforts to divide the Five Eyes partnership. NZ's decision follows the recent upgrade of New Zealand’s China Free Trade Agreement. A lucrative deal for the vulnerable NZ economy.
Australia urgently needs to reset the relationship with a concerted diplomatic campaign to help NZ diversify its markets away from China and strengthen its resilience to foreign interference. Australia should make it a top priority to encourage New Zealand to join the Quad.
View: https://twitter.com/IndoPac_Info/status/1386623039350067205?s=20
 

jward

passin' thru
Indo-Pacific News - Watching the CCP-China Threat
@IndoPac_Info

36m


#Taiwan prepares for #Chinese invasion with virtual ‘tabletop’ military drills that started on Friday TAIWAN'S top military advisers gathered behind fortified walls to conduct extensive virtual military drills in preparation for a Chinese invasion.
The highly classified annual “Han Kuang” drills aim to prepare Taiwan for all types of Chinese attacks including from air, sea, land and cyber. The so-called “tabletop drills” officially began on Friday and will cover around 37 different simulations.
View: https://twitter.com/IndoPac_Info/status/1386665270647791620?s=20
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Hummm.......

Posted for fair use.....

US-China Cold War Could Lead To A More Dangerous Nuclear Stand-Off – OpEd
April 27, 2021 IPS 0 Comments
By IPS

By Joseph Gerson*

Despite the negotiation of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW), we are confronted by the increasing dangers of great power war, even nuclear war.

Instead of making necessary investments to ensure public health, reverse climate change and ensure the security of their peoples, trillions of dollars are being wasted to construct new nuclear weapons and their delivery systems, including new hypersonic delivery systems.

The U.S. and Russia are the lead drivers of this race to annihilation, with more than 90% of the world’s nuclear weapons. The U.S. is in the process of upgrading all its nuclear weapons and deploying an entirely new and more deadly nuclear triad at an estimated cost of two trillion dollars.

Faced with U.S. conventional supremacy and the expansion of NATO to its borders, Russia has increased its reliance on nuclear weapons and is deploying new and more exotic nuclear weapons.

We face the existential danger that escalation of the conflict in Ukraine and accidents and miscalculations as the two powers confront one another in the Baltic and Black Seas, could escalate beyond control.

In each case, in addition to the drive for imperial power, military-industrial complexes contribute to the nuclear crisis. There also demands coming out of Ukraine to the effect that if it is not allowed to join NATO, it should construct its own nuclear arsenal.

Potentially more dangerous is the new U.S.-Chinese Cold War. Here the Thucydides Trap, the historic dynamic of inevitable conflict between rising and declining powers, is driving this dimension of the nuclear arms race. In its effort to retain its regional (and global) hegemony, the U.S. is moving to deploy standoff nuclear-armed cruise missiles targeted against China.

It is also pressing increased deployments of its “missile defenses” which can serve as shields for U.S. first-strike swords along China Asia-Pacific periphery. These, in turn, lead Chinese policy makers to serious consider increasing the size of their much smaller nuclear arsenal and the possibility of abandoning their no first use doctrine.

The explosion of spending for nuclear weapons and their delivery systems is not limited to the great powers. The Johnson government in Britain has just shocked the world with the announcement that it will increase the size of its nuclear arsenal by roughly 30%.
France is deploying new nuclear armed submarines designed to threaten nuclear war throughout the 21st century. Pakistan is in the process of trying to match India’s nuclear triad. Israel is secretly expanding it Diamona nuclear weapons site.

And having been repeatedly threatened by U.S. conventional and nuclear attacks, North Korea has publicly announced it will continue manufacturing more nuclear weapons and diversifying their delivery systems which threaten South Korea, neighboring nations and even the United States.

This is suicidal madness. Here in the United States, as Tax Day and Congressional debates over the national budget approach, popular movements and the Congressional Defense Spending Reduction Caucus are demanding significant reductions in military spending. Funding for the replacement of the nation’s ground based and first strike ICBMs and “more usable” low-yield battlefield weapons are thought to be most vulnerable to funding cuts.

As the Russell-Einstein Manifesto warned the world at the height of the first Cold War in 1955, humanity faces the choice of life or death for our species. They appealed to the world to press for nuclear disarmament, to “remember your humanity and forget the rest.”

Fifty years ago, the nuclear powers committed in Article VI of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty to engage in good faith negotiations for the complete elimination of their nuclear arsenals.

The world’s nuclear powers must be held to the NPT commitments. Governments won’t deliver us the nuclear free world humanity requires for survival. It can only be achieved by popular pressure.

I encourage people around the world to join the International Peace Bureau initiated Global Days of Action on Military Spending, now under way and continuing to May 17 and to press on beyond to stanch the existential nuclear danger with nuclear disarmament actions and demands for Common Security diplomacy.

*Dr Joseph Gerson’s books include Empire and the Bomb: How the U.S. Uses Nuclear Weapons to Dominate the World and With Hiroshima Eyes: Atomic War, Nuclear Extortion and Moral Imagination. He is President of the Campaign for Peace, Disarmament and Common Security and Vice-President of the International Peace Bureau.
 

northern watch

TB Fanatic
New UK aircraft carrier to set sail for Asia next month
A fleet of British warships and military aircraft billed as the “largest concentration of maritime and air power to leave the U.K. in a generation” will depart next month for visits to India, Japan, South Korea and Singapore

By SYLVIA HUI Associated Press
26 April 2021, 13:28


FILE - In this Feb. 9, 2018, file photo, the 65,000-tonne HMS Queen Elizabeth, the largest warships ever built for the Royal Navy of the United Kingdom, arrives at the British territory of Gibraltar. New aircraft carrier HMS Queen Elizabeth, the most

Image Icon
The Associated Press
FILE - In this Feb. 9, 2018, file photo, the 65,000-tonne HMS Queen Elizabeth, the largest warships ever built for the Royal Navy of the United Kingdom, arrives at the British territory of Gibraltar. New aircraft carrier HMS Queen Elizabeth, the most powerful surface vessel in the Royal Navy's history, will set sail in May 2021 for Asia with eight fast jets on board. It will be accompanied by six Royal Navy ships, a submarine armed with Tomahawk cruise missiles, 14 naval helicopters and a company of Royal Marines. (AP Photo/Marcos Moreno, File)

LONDON -- A fleet of British warships and military aircraft billed as the “largest concentration of maritime and air power to leave the U.K. in a generation” will depart next month for visits to India, Japan, South Korea and Singapore, in a display of Britain’s ambition to exert a much stronger presence in Asia.

New aircraft carrier HMS Queen Elizabeth, the most powerful surface vessel in the Royal Navy's history, will set sail next month for Asia with eight fast jets on board. It will be accompanied by six Royal Navy ships, a submarine armed with Tomahawk cruise missiles, 14 naval helicopters and a company of Royal Marines.

Defense Secretary Ben Wallace said Monday the mission aims to show that Britain is “not stepping back but sailing forth to play an active role in shaping the international system.” It will help deepen security and political ties and support Britain’s exports and international trade, he added.

While he noted China's increasingly assertive military build-up, Wallace said the deployment was not meant to be “confrontational.”

“We are not going to the other side of the world to be provocative. We will sail through the South China Sea, we will be confident but not confrontational,” he told Parliament.

The deployment is expected to last about six months and visit more than 40 countries. It will take part in dozens of engagements, including an exercise to mark the 50th anniversary of the Five Power Defence Arrangements with Malaysia, Singapore, Australia and New Zealand.

Last month, Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced that the Indo-Pacific region will become Britain’s defense and foreign policy focus as the U.K. reconsiders its place in the world order after leaving the European Union.

Johnson had planned to visit India to boost trade and investment ties as part of that plan, but he was forced to cancel the trip as the coronavirus pandemic worsened in India.

New UK aircraft carrier to set sail for Asia next month - ABC News (go.com)
 

jward

passin' thru
consolidation-quad-hits-china-hard

Consolidation of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue between the USA, Japan, Australia and India, known in short as Quad, seems to have hit China where it hurts most as it has expressed its firm opposition to the alliance. The alliance is not directed against China as such; its aim is quite laudable, protecting freedom of navigation and promoting democratic values in the region.

If Beijing has voiced its opposition against the alliance, it is because China is keen to monopolize the rights of navigation in the South China Sea and and it has made it a habit to trample human rights in China and some adjoining areas. Quad was formed in 2007, mainly at the behest of Japan, but that did not raise much concern in China.

In fact, Quad had become dormant in between because of the exit of Australia from the arrangement. Increasing bullying by China in the South China led to the revival of Quad in 2017 as countries in the Indo – Pacific region felt the need to protect their interests in the high seas, and the U.S., too, had to protect its interests in the region. What set the alarm bells ringing, however, was the first meeting of Quad at the level of the leaders of the nation concerned in March, 2021, with the participation of U. S. president Joe Biden, Japanese prime minister Yoshihide Suga, Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Indian prime minister Narendra Modi.

According to a 2017 report of the Congressional Research Service of the USA, the distrust of Beijing’s role in the Indo – Pacific region has consolidated the Quad. This has been coupled with the expansion of the Malabar Exercise, the regular military drill between the USA and India, to include all the Quad members. Phase 2 of Exercise Malabar 2020, carried out in the northern Arabian sea from November 17 to November 20, 2020, was quite a complex exercise involving navies of the four nations. Nimitz Carrier Strike Group of the U. S. Navy participated in the exercise.

The 24th edition of Malabar showcases the commitment of the four nations “to an open, inclusive Indo-Pacific and a rules-based international order,” says a vision document of the Indian Navy. The threat to an open Indo – Pacific stems from China’s sweeping claims of sovereignty over the South China Sea, a repository of large quantities of untapped oil and natural gas. China’s claim of monopoly over resources of South China sea has antagonized other claimants: Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan and Vietnam.

China has started occupying islands in the South China Sea, expanding them, and even creating new islands by piling sand on reefs and turning them into military installations, setting up ports and air strips. The U.S. has pointed out that Chinese actions violate the UN Convention of the Law of the Sea. To protect its own long-term strategic and economic interests, it has challenged China’s territorial claims and efforts at land reclamation and carried out Freedom of Navigation Operations. One of the recent flare-ups was in March last when Philippine ordered the deployment of its naval ships to protect its sovereignty in the South China sea where a Chinese flotilla, about 200 strong, thronged a disputed reef and ignored Manila’s demand to leave the area. China called the Whitsun Reef, about 175 nautical miles west of the coast of Philippine, its own. The U.S. has backed Philippine and accused China of intimidating other nations. China is accustomed to cocking a snook at democratic values; it does not understand the importance that the free world attaches to them.

The plight of the ethnic minorities that live in China like the Tibetans and the Uighurs is too well-known. But China’s high-handed behaviour has now started extending beyond its borders. Myanmar is a glaring example, where people agitating against the military junta are setting on fire factories and shops owned by Chinese people. The reason is the covert support that China has extended to the military clique that has overthrown the democratically elected government of Myanmar.

In Hong Kong, in a latest move to curb further the democratic movement, China has sharply reduced the number of directly elected seats in the legislature of the island territory. The legislature would be expanded to 90 seats, with only 20 to be elected by the people. Currently, 35 seats in the 70-seat legislature are directly elected. Hong Kong, as a former British colony, has a more liberal political system than in mainland China as a treaty obligation. Last year, China imposed on Hong Kong a national security law to crush a pro-democratic movement in 2019.

China has reacted in its usual insolent way, opposing the Quad alliance, despite assurances from India that Quad is not a military alliance. “We hope that the U.S. can view the Chinese military rationally,” a spokesman of the Chinese defence ministry has said recently. “The Chinese military is determined to safeguard China’s sovereignty, security and development interests, and has such capabilities.” Indian Army chief General M. M. Naravane has said, however, that though there would be co-operation among the member nations of Quad, it would not be a military alliance like NATO. Quad, he has explained, is a security dialogue. As a part of that security, there would be military co-operation. Participating countries will still be looking at their own interests. He has also explained that Quad is not directed against any particular country.

It is an alliance of like-minded democratic countries with shared values. The biggest instance that the participating countries in Quad look after their own interests is the recent exercise carried out by the U. S. Seventh Fleet in Indian waters near Lakshadweep without New Delhi’s prior consent to challenge “India’s excessive maritime claims.” It was, according to the USA, a Freedom of Navigation Operation. India has expressed its concern through diplomatic channels. The issue has been settled amicably, however, with the U.S. describing the operation as routine and saying it values “partnership with India on a wide range of issues, including regional security across the Indo – Pacific.” There is, thus, little consolation for China. There are other security alliances to check Chinese hegemony in South East Asia like ASEAN, but what has unnerved China this time is the direct participation of the USA in Quad.

Posted For Fair use
 

jward

passin' thru
Commander UK Carrier Strike Group
@smrmoorhouse



Following the Defence Secretary’s announcement, here are the key details for the first operational deployment of
@HMSQNLZ
and the UK Carrier Strike Group #CSG21(1/4)
While much of the #CSG21 commentary is focused on the Indo-Pacific, it’s important not to overlook the opening & closing phases in the North Atlantic & Mediterranean. These will demonstrate UK commitment to Euro-Atlantic security. #WeAreNATO #StrongerTogether
As for East Asia, this will be our most significant presence since Ocean Wave 97 (my first deployment as an aviator!) #CSG21 will bring together the different strands of diplomacy, security & prosperity in support of #GlobalBritain in a region growing in significance.
#CSG21 is far from just a
@RoyalNavy
effort. The 3700 people under my command include
@RoyalAirForce
&
@BritishArmy
. Our programme of defence engagement is co-ordinated across Whitehall. A true pan-Defence, cross-Government operation, as envisaged by the #IntegratedReview
View: https://twitter.com/smrmoorhouse/status/1386734644989763588?s=20
 

northern watch

TB Fanatic
Australia security official warns staff of 'drums of war'
A senior Australian security bureaucrat has warned his staff that free nations “again hear the beating drums” of war, as military tensions rise in the Asia-Pacific region
By ROD McGUIRK Associated Press
26 April 2021, 23:51

Australia's Secretary of the Department of Home Affairs Mike Pezzullo speaks during a Senate inquiry at Parliament House in Canberra, on Oct. 19, 2020. Pezzullo's message to all department staff on Australia's veterans' day on Sunday, April 25, 2021,

Image Icon
The Associated Press
Australia's Secretary of the Department of Home Affairs Mike Pezzullo speaks during a Senate inquiry at Parliament House in Canberra, on Oct. 19, 2020. Pezzullo's message to all department staff on Australia's veterans' day on Sunday, April 25, 2021, warned that free nations "again hear the beating drums" of war, as military tensions rise in the Asia-Pacific region, according to The Australian newspaper. (Lukas Coch/AAP Image via AP)

CANBERRA, Australia -- A senior Australian security bureaucrat warned his staff that free nations “again hear the beating drums” of war, as military tensions rise in the Asia-Pacific region.

Department of Home Affairs Secretary Mike Pezzullo’s message to all department staff on Australia’s veterans’ day on Sunday, known as Anzac Day, was published in The Australian newspaper on Tuesday.

“In a world of perpetual tension and dread, the drums of war beat – sometimes faintly and distantly, and at other times more loudly and ever closer,” Pezzullo said.


“Today, as free nations again hear the beating drums and watch worryingly the militarisation of issues that we had, until recent years, thought unlikely to be catalysts for war, let us continue to search unceasingly for the chance for peace while bracing again, yet again, for the curse of war,” he added.

Home Affairs Minister Karen Andrews said she had approved of the wording of Pezzullo’s message.

“He is absolutely at liberty to prepare such a speech, a document, and to have that published,” Andrews said. “The overarching message from government is that we need to be alert but not alarmed.”

Senior opposition Labor Party lawmaker Bill Shorten described Pezzullo’s reference to “drums of war” as “pretty hyperexcited language.”

“I’m not sure our senior public servants should be using that language because I’m not sure what that actually helps except to cause more anxiety,” Shorten said.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison did not directly answer when asked at a news conference whether he agreed with Pezzullo that the drums of war were beating.

“My goal as prime minister ... is to pursue peace,” Morrison said. “That’s what we’re doing. We’re pursuing peace for a free and open Indo-Pacific.”

Morison said his government had increased defense spending to “ensure that Australia’s national interests can always be protected.”

Defense Minister Peter Dutton raised the prospect of conflict between China and Taiwan in his own comments on Anzac Day.

“Nobody wants to see conflict between China and Taiwan or anywhere else in the world,” Dutton said. “I don’t think it should be discounted.”

In response to Dutton's remarks, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said on Monday that Taiwan was part of Chinese internal affairs that do not tolerate external interference.

“It's hoped that the Australian side will fully recognize that the Taiwan question is highly sensitive, abide by the one-China principle, be prudent in its words and deeds, avoid sending any wrong signals to the Taiwan independence separatist forces and act in ways beneficial to peace and stability,” Wang said.

Western Australia state Premier Mark McGowan — the Labor government leader of the state that exports Australia's most lucrative export, iron ore, to China — called on the federal government to “tone down” its language on military tensions.

“I just urge the Commonwealth (government) and people in this position, elected and otherwise, to tone it down. Tone it down,” McGowan told reporters, referring to Pezzullo's “drums of war” reference.

“What good does that do, saying things like that? It’s totally unnecessary,” McGowan said, adding that diplomacy should be conducted “diplomatically.”

Pezzullo noted that this year marks the 70th anniversary of Australia’s defense treaty with the United States. He cited U.S. wartime generals Douglas MacArthur and President Dwight Eisenhower.

“Let us remember the warnings of two American generals who had known war waged totally and brutally: we must search always for the chance for peace amidst the curse of war, until we are faced with the only prudent, if sorrowful, course — to send off, yet again, our warriors to fight the nation’s wars,” he said.

Australia must reduce the likelihood of war, “but not at the cost of our precious freedom,” Pezzullo said.

Australia last week provoked an angry response from Beijing by cancelling two Chinese Belt and Road Initiative infrastructure deals with the Victoria state government on national interest grounds.

The Chinese Embassy in Australia said in a statement the decision would “bring further damage to bilateral relations and will only end up hurting” Australia.

Australia security official warns staff of 'drums of war' - ABC News (go.com)
 

northern watch

TB Fanatic
China Commissions Three Advanced Warships

China-aircraft-carrier.jpg

Liaoning, a Chinese Type 001 aircraft carrier / Getty Images

Jack Beyrer• April 26, 2021 5:00 pm
Free Beacon

The Chinese Navy commissioned three advanced warships in April, part of a larger effort from Beijing to challenge American military dominance in the South China Sea and encroach on Taiwan.

People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) officials announced the triple commissioning of a nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine, a guided-missile cruiser, and a helicopter carrier at a naval base located near the South China Sea. Chinese president Xi Jinping reportedly attended the ceremony
.

The Chinese naval buildup comes after a series of escalations from Beijing toward Taiwan, a democratic country and American ally. In March, China flew 54 flights into Taiwanese airspace and another 25 in early April. The aggressive behavior coincided with incursions into the South China Sea, including 220 ships landing within one of the U.S. Navy's defense perimeters, leaving questions about the territorial security of Taiwan.

Two more helicopter carriers are already under construction in Shanghai. The carriers can house several aerial vehicles, making them a formidable threat in the event of an amphibious invasion of Taiwan.

The guided-missile warship, known as the Renhai-class cruiser, sports its own advanced radar technology and array of missile systems. Beijing has authorized the construction of eight other Renhai-class cruisers. Meanwhile, China is building an additional nuclear-powered submarine, which defense analysts say improves their defensive nuclear posture.

U.S. military planners say China may invade Taiwan in the next six years, and former naval officers expect a war over Taiwan could spread to Australia, Japan, and even the Indian Ocean. Australian defense minister Peter Dutton told reporters Sunday a conflict between Taiwan and China "should not be discounted."

Republicans suggest a larger navy and defense budget would meet the rising threat from China. It remains unclear, however, if the Biden administration will stay the course and build a larger U.S. fleet, as early signals from the White House indicate a stagnant defense budget. An April 22 report from the Congressional Budget Office said the December 2020 shipbuilding plan authorized by the Trump administration will cost an average of $34 billion annually, 10 percent more than an original estimate from the Navy.

China Commissions Three Advanced Warships - Washington Free Beacon
 

OldArcher

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Commander UK Carrier Strike Group
@smrmoorhouse



Following the Defence Secretary’s announcement, here are the key details for the first operational deployment of
@HMSQNLZ
and the UK Carrier Strike Group #CSG21(1/4)
While much of the #CSG21 commentary is focused on the Indo-Pacific, it’s important not to overlook the opening & closing phases in the North Atlantic & Mediterranean. These will demonstrate UK commitment to Euro-Atlantic security. #WeAreNATO #StrongerTogether
As for East Asia, this will be our most significant presence since Ocean Wave 97 (my first deployment as an aviator!) #CSG21 will bring together the different strands of diplomacy, security & prosperity in support of #GlobalBritain in a region growing in significance.
#CSG21 is far from just a
@RoyalNavy
effort. The 3700 people under my command include
@RoyalAirForce
&
@BritishArmy
. Our programme of defence engagement is co-ordinated across Whitehall. A true pan-Defence, cross-Government operation, as envisaged by the #IntegratedReview
View: https://twitter.com/smrmoorhouse/status/1386734644989763588?s=20

Hope they’ve got damage control down... They didn’t do well in the Falklands... Guess we’ll see if they learned, adapted, and are able to persevere... Or, how many they’ll lose... The HMSQEII is sure a strange looking vessel... I wish them well...

When I heard about the Indonesian sub going down, even before it was confirmed, all I could hear was, “Eternal Father, Strong to Save...” Didn’t make any difference that they were Muslim. They were sailors, and of an ancient brother/sister- hood as well... Terrible way to die...

OA
 

jward

passin' thru
Indo-Pacific News - Watching the CCP-China Threat
@IndoPac_Info

17m

#Chinese Smart TV-Maker Accused of Spying on Owners' Other Devices The smart televisions spy on its users by scanning their homes for other devices connected to the wifi network every few minutes, owners of the devices have reported on social media.
2) Smart TVs made by Skyworth were found to have an app -- Gozen Data -- installed on the Android-based operating system of the TV, according to a post on the V2EX website titled "My TV is monitoring all connected devices."
3) "The service was sending back the hostnames, mac, ip, and even the network delay time, as well as detecting the nearby wifi SSID names and mac addresses and sending them off to ... a database." 4) Citizen journalist Xing Jian said the Android smart TV operating system has been repurposed by the Chinese government for surveillance of people's homes in rural areas, in an operation known as Project Xueliang.
 

jward

passin' thru
Nor did it cross my mind that their faith was likely different than my own; all I saw was the faces of my loved ones, who but for the grace o' God, and the faces of their loved ones, who knew this day could come, but never believed this day would come. All there is to do for them now is bear witness to whatever last thoughts they've left us, and recommit, once more, to living life as though that moment may arise here at any time.
Hope they’ve got damage control down... They didn’t do well in the Falklands... Guess we’ll see if they learned, adapted, and are able to persevere... Or, how many they’ll lose... The HMSQEII is sure a strange looking vessel... I wish them well...

When I heard about the Indonesian sub going down, even before it was confirmed, all I could hear was, “Eternal Father, Strong to Save...” Didn’t make any difference that they were Muslim. They were sailors, and of an ancient brother/sister- hood as well... Terrible way to die...

OA
 

jward

passin' thru
Xy5Z89
@Xy5Z89

4m


#China #Bejing On Thursday, China successfully launched a rocket carrying the core capsule for the country's first space station.

10:41 PM · Apr 28, 2021·Twitter for Android

Replying to
@Xy5Z89
From the Wenchang Spacecraft Launch Site on Hainan Island, #China launched the Long March 5B (or Chang Zheng 5B) carrier rocket carrying the main module (Tianhe) of China's future orbital station.
RT: 16sec
View: https://twitter.com/Xy5Z89/status/1387613836614701056?s=20
 

jward

passin' thru
Joseph Dempsey
@JosephHDempsey

2h

Replying to
@JosephHDempsey
#SouthKorea revise their initial 450km estimates up to the 600km claimed by #NorthKorea

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Joseph Dempsey
@JosephHDempsey
3m

#Japan initial assessment that #NorthKorea's missiles "will not fall into Japan's Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ)" would appear likely misguided based on #SouthKorea revised 600km estimate https://mod.go.jp/j/press/news/2


World Events Live
@IdeologyWars

9m

#UPDATE: Japanese coast guard has issued a warning to aircraft and ships to be aware that #NorthKorea has potentially launched a ballistic missile.

Two projectiles reported landed at sea, neither entered the Japanese EEZ.
North Korea has launched an “unidentified projectile” into the East Sea
Aurora Intel
@AuroraIntel

11m

At 0709JST (17 minutes ago) The Japan Coast Guard issued an alert about the possibility of ballistic missile launch from North Korea

Replying to
@nknewsorg

NK News has confirmed this, per South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff.

EndGameWW3
@EndGameWW3

7m

(URGENT) N. Korea fires unidentified projectile into East Sea: JCS
View: https://twitter.com/EndGameWW3/status/1374851379991347201?s=20

Doge
@IntelDoge

·
1m

2 projectiles that appear to be ballistic missiles were fired from eastern North Korea around 7:06am according to Japanese media outlets. 2 projectiles did NOT land inside Japan's EEZ.
Doge
@IntelDoge

·
1m

2 projectiles that appear to be ballistic missiles were fired from eastern North Korea around 7:06am according to Japanese media outlets. 2 projectiles did NOT land inside Japan's EEZ.
 

northern watch

TB Fanatic
A shockingly possible war
China’s growing military confidence puts Taiwan at risk

All-out conflict may not feel imminent, but America is deeply concerned
Briefing
May 1st 2021 edition
The Economist

May 1st 2021
BEIJING

On June 29th 1950 the uss Valley Forge, flagship of America’s Seventh Fleet, passed through the Taiwan Strait. A battle group defended her flanks, America’s first naval jets sat in her hangar, and a new vision of American-dominated Asian security unfurled in her wake.

Only a few months before, America’s secretary of state, Dean Acheson, had declared that “The Asian peoples are on their own, and know it.” But on June 25th Stalinist North Korea launched an invasion of its southern neighbour, and a country confronting communism could no longer leave Asia alone. America would fight with South Korea. It was to join in that defence that the Valley Forge was steaming north from Subic Bay.

Her route had added purpose. Containing Asian communism meant more than fighting North Korea. It also required making sure that Mao Zedong—mainland China’s ruler since the previous year—did not take the island of Taiwan from the Nationalist regime led by Chiang Kai-shek, who had been forced to retreat there. On June 27th President Harry Truman announced a new Taiwan policy: America would defend the island from attack; the Nationalists must, for their part, cease air and sea operations against the mainland. “The Seventh Fleet will see that this is done,” the president declared, with nicely laconic menace. Hence the Valley Forge’s show of strength.

From that week on, to the relief of some and the frustration of others, Asian peoples were no longer on their own. The Korean war transformed the region into a theatre of ideological struggle just as fraught as divided cold-war Europe. For nearly three decades the Taiwan Strait saw ships of the Seventh Fleet acting as a tripwire between the two Chinas. There were early battles over outlying islands, including a crisis in 1958 in which Mao’s brinkmanship nearly started a nuclear war. But over time the rivals to the west and east of the strait settled into an uneasy half-peace, both adamant that they were the one true China, neither able to act on the conviction.

Over time Taiwan became the prosperous, pro-Western democracy of 24m people which it is today. While the mainland saw traditions and social codes destroyed by Maoist fanaticism, Taiwan has a rich religious and cultural life. It has come to enjoy raucous free speech and a marked liberal streak: it was the first Asian country to legalise gay marriage.

A generation ago, it could matter greatly whether someone’s grandparents had arrived from the mainland in 1949 or had deeper roots on the island. That has now changed, especially among the young. In 2020 a poll by the Pew Research Centre, a Washington-based research outfit, found that about two-thirds of adults on the island now identified as purely Taiwanese. About three in ten called themselves both Taiwanese and Chinese. Just 4% called themselves simply Chinese.

Leaders in Beijing differ; they consider them all Chinese. They tell their own people that most citizens of Taiwan agree, and that the historical necessity of national unification is being thwarted by secessionist troublemakers egged on by America.

Once, Taiwan was a point of compromise between the two powers. On January 1st 1979, the day that America recognised the People’s Republic of China, the economic reformers running the mainland changed their Taiwan policy from armed liberation to “peaceful reunification”, soon afterwards adding a promise of considerableautonomy: “one country, two systems”. But for the past 25 years that conciliatory offer has been accompanied by an unprecedented military build up.
In recent years China’s rhetoric towards Taiwan has sounded new notes of impatience. And the crushing abnegation of its promise to observe “one country, two systems” in Hong Kong over the past two years has deepened Taiwanese distrust. Last year the issue helped Tsai Ing-wen of the Democratic Progressive Party (dpp) to be re-elected president.

In principle the dpp favours the creation of a Taiwan that is formally its own nation; but to declare independence in that way would trigger massive Chinese reprisals. To keep that crisis at bay, Ms Tsai, a moderate, cat-loving academic, relies on an artful diplomatic dodge: that she governs a country which, while proudly Taiwanese, uses the legal name of the Republic of China which it inherited from the Nationalists who arrived in 1949. China’s leaders detest her.

The passage of time poses a dilemma for China. Every year, China’s ability to coerce Taiwan economically and militarily grows greater. And every year it loses more hearts and minds on Taiwan. Should rulers in Beijing ever conclude that peaceful unification is a hopeless cause, Chinese law instructs them to use force.

Present fears

This dynamic alarms the heirs to Acheson. Though the accord of 1979 cast Taiwan into non-state limbo, the island’s security remained—as a matter of American law—a question of “grave concern”. When in 1996 China sought to intimidate the Taiwanese, about to vote in their first free presidential election, by means of missile tests, President Bill Clinton ordered the uss Nimitz, a nuclear-powered aircraft-carrier, and her attendant battle group to pass through the strait. The missile tests stopped.

20210501_FBP003.jpg

A man with a PLAN

American military commanders are increasingly open about their concerns that, in the context of Taiwan, the balance of military power between China and America has swung in China’s direction. A 25-year campaign of shipbuilding and weapons procurement, begun in direct response to the humiliation of 1996, has provided the People’s Liberation Army Navy (plan) a fleet of 360 ships, according to American naval intelligence, compared with America’s 297. On April 23rd state media hailed the symbolism of a ceremony in which China’s supreme leader, President Xi Jinping, commissioned three large warships on the same day: a destroyer, a helicopter-carrier and a ballistic-missile submarine. The second of these is ideal for airlifting troops to a mountainous island, the media noted with glee. The third is a way of deterring superpowers.

20210501_FBC067.png


America still boasts more, better carriers and nuclear submarines. It has much more experience of far-flung operations, and it has allies, too. But America’s forces have global duties. China would be fighting close to home and thus enjoying the benefit of the pla’s land-based aircraft and missiles. Lonnie Henley, who was until 2019 the chief Pentagon intelligence analyst for East Asia, sees the radars and missiles of the integrated air-defence system along China’s coast as the “centre of gravity” of any war over Taiwan (see map). Unless those defences are destroyed, American forces would be limited to long-range weapons or attacks by the stealthiest warplanes, Mr Henley told a congressional panel in February. But destroying those defences would mean one nuclear power launching direct attacks on the territory of another.

20210501_FBM981.png


And the Chinese build-up continues apace. History is an imperfect guide, but offers precedents to ponder, says a senior American defence official. “The world has never seen a military expansion of this scale not associated with conflict.”
It is not just a matter of numbers. China has carefully focused its efforts on the ability to defeat American forces that might trouble it. It has missiles designed expressly for killing carriers, and others that would allow precision strikes on the American base on Guam. The defence official lists other fields in which China has worked to neutralise areas of American strength, whether that means investment in anti-submarine weapons and sensors or systems to jam or destroy the satellites on which American forces rely. Copying an American method, China has set up a training centre with a professional opposing force that mimics enemy (in this case American) doctrines and tactics.

End of Part 1 of 2
 
Last edited:

northern watch

TB Fanatic
Horrible imaginings

The head of Indo-Pacific Command, Admiral Phil Davidson, told a Senate hearing in March that China’s fielding of new warships, planes and rockets, when considered alongside the regime’s unblushing readiness to crush dissent from Hong Kong to Tibet, makes him worry that China is accelerating its apparent ambitions to supplant America and its allies from their position atop what he called the rules-based international order—a phrase that China sees as code for Western hegemony. Pondering the specific risks of a Chinese attack on Taiwan, the admiral told senators that “the threat is manifest during this decade, in fact in the next six years.”

Admiral John Aquilino, nominated to be Admiral Davidson’s successor as head of Indo-Pacific Command, told a confirmation hearing in March that work to shore up America’s ability to deter a Chinese attack on Taiwan is urgent. While he stopped short of endorsing his predecessor’s timeline of six years, he called the prospect of a Chinese use of force “much closer to us than most think”. Anxiety has been raised further by war games involving Taiwan scenarios, both secret and unclassified, that were won by officers, spooks or scholars playing the role of China.

The admirals’ worries mix judgments about China’s capabilities with hunches about its intent. Bonnie Glaser of the German Marshall Fund, a public-policy outfit, notes that their mission is to make plans, in this case to win a war over Taiwan. Once they realise that victory may elude them, or may only be possible at great cost, panic is understandable. That does not mean they are correctly assessing China’s incentives to act soon. Strikingly, some of the intelligence officers paid to analyse the world for admirals and generals are noticeably calmer. “The trends are not ideal from a Chinese perspective,” says Mr Henley. “But are they intolerable? I just don’t see them being in that grim a mindset.”

When the battle’s lost and won

A broader American angst is driven by the knowledge of what defeat would mean. Niall Ferguson, a historian, recently wrote that the fall of Taiwan to China would be seen around Asia as the end of American predominance and even as “America’s Suez”, a reference to the humbling of Britain when it overreached during the Suez crisis of 1956. Asked about this idea in early April Matt Pottinger, who was head of Asia policy in the Trump White House, agreed and added another reason for Asian allies to fear such a public loss of American credibility. When Britain stumbled at Suez, America had already taken its place as the leader of the Western world, Mr Pottinger told a Hoover Institution podcast. Today, he observed, “There's not another United States waiting in the wings.”

For all its newfound strength China faces daunting odds. A full-scale amphibious invasion of Taiwan, a mountainous island that lies across at least 130km of water, would be the most ambitious such venture since the second world war. America has spent years nagging its Taiwanese allies to capitalise on their natural insular advantages, for instance by buying lots of naval mines, drones and coastal-defence cruise missiles on mobile launchers to sink Chinese troop ships, rather than continuing to splurge on tanks and f-16 fighters. Randall Schriver, the assistant secretary of defence for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs in 2018-19, promoted efforts to help Taiwan disable Chinese radar and other sensors: “If we are able to just blind the pla, that would be a huge contribution to the fight.”

If a Chinese amphibious invasion of Taiwan were to fail, or military conflict to reach a stalemate, would it fight on? Outsiders offer no consensus. Mr Henley suggests that a failed invasion might evolve into a long-term blockade—a strategy to which Western defence planners are paying increasing attention. There is a much-heard view that once China starts fighting anything short of victory would mean regime-toppling humiliation. But Mr Schriver is sceptical. “This is part of Beijing’s win-without-fighting strategy. To make everyone believe that they climb the escalation ladder all the way to nukes if they have to.”

The risks and costs of war, even a successful one, bring home the point that capabilities in themselves are never the determining factor. Intentions matter too, and are far more opaque—especially when, as in China, they reside largely in the mind of one man. It is common to hear Western analysts state that Mr Xi has staked his legacy and legitimacy on Taiwan’s return. Hard evidence for this alarming belief is in short supply. The most cited is that, in a new-year speech in 2019, he linked union with Taiwan to the ambition that he has placed at the core of his leadership, namely the “great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation”. He also repeated what he had said to a Taiwanese envoy in 2013: that cross-strait differences should not be passed from generation to generation.

Having abolished the term limit on his role as president in 2018, 67-year-old Mr Xi can hardly expect to be succeeded by another member of his generation. Following his own logic, it thus falls to him to make sure that the task is not passed on. In an October 2019 meeting in Beijing, Chinese scholars and military experts shared with Oriana Skylar Mastro of Stanford University their understanding that it is imperative for Taiwan to be recovered during Mr Xi’s time as leader.

Though some semi-official Chinese commentators already say that they see no hope for unification without some use of violence, there is no agreement among foreign governments as to whether that is the settled view of China’s rulers. China continues to try to shape Taiwanese opinion with a mix of sticks and carrots, which suggests that negotiation has not been abandoned. The biggest carrot, access to its vast markets, continues to be dangled in front of Taiwanese business interests. Ms Glaser notes that Mr Xi sounded a patient note in March when he visited Fujian, the coastal province nearest to Taiwan, urging officials to explore new paths of cross-strait integration and economic development.

To the sticking place

But China’s carrots and sticks can clash. To punish the Taiwanese for electing a dpp government China has reduced official and semi-official cross-strait contacts to “nearly zero”, says Andrew Nien-Dzu Yang, a former Taiwanese deputy defence minister, now at the Chinese Council of Advanced Policy Studies, a think-tank in Taipei. That raises the danger of misunderstandings.

So does China’s increased military activity around the island. Psychological operations and “grey-zone” warfare have been intensifying. In 2020, according to Taiwan’s government, Chinese warplanes made 380 sorties into Taiwan’s Air Defence Identification Zone (adiz), a buffer zone of international airspace where foreign planes face questioning by controllers and potential interception by Taiwanese fighters. Such a tempo of operations has not been seen since 1996. On April 5th the Chinese navy promised patrols by its aircraft-carriers around Taiwan on a regular basis. On April 12th 25 Chinese planes entered the adiz, a record for a single day.

This may be a test of the new Biden administration, says a senior Taiwanese diplomat, or a bid to create a “new normal” in which Chinese forces are routinely present in a zone formerly controlled by Taiwan. China knows that Taiwan will not fire first, so “the Chinese will continue to push,” the diplomat says. The constant incursions wear down Taiwanese defences, raise the chances of accidental collisions and would make it harder to spot a rush to real war. Beyond the constant drumbeat of military pressure, China is “trying to divide society, trying to sow the seeds of chaos,” says the diplomat. “They also conduct cyber-activities and disinformation campaigns.”

Wang Zaixi, a former deputy head of the Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Straits, a semi-official Chinese body, advocates a “third way” between all-out war and political negotiations, one in which a massive display of firepower cows Taiwan into submission. In Chinese media interviews he has cited the (not wholly reassuring) precedent of Red Army troops surrounding Beijing in 1949 in such intimidating numbers that the city fell with rather few casualties, an approach he calls “using war to force peace”.

In some polls less than half of Taiwanese say they would fight in a war with China, or want relatives to do so (compulsory military service was sharply reduced in 2013, by a government keen on closer ties with China). If the island loses more than half of its defences in the first waves of an attack, the public’s will to fight might collapse, frets Mr Yang. A swift collapse would make America’s position yet harder. If American reinforcements arrive to find China’s troops already on the island, asks Ms Skylar Mastro, can they start firing if no Chinese unit has shot at Americans? “I think that would be a very hard call for a us president to make.”

If the Taiwanese appetite for a fight is unclear, so too is America’s. Taiwan’s government is painfully aware that preserving their friendly, successful democracy is not in itself a vital national interest for anyone else. Instead, Taiwanese officials stress the extraordinary importance of the island’s semiconductor industry to global supply chains. They also emphasise how grim and frightening the Asia-Pacific would feel if America ever broke its commitments and ducked a fight with China. Japan’s prime minister, Suga Yoshihide, recently went further than any recent predecessor, when he mentioned the importance of stability in the Taiwan Strait in a joint statement with Mr Biden. Japan fears Taiwan becoming a Chinese bastion just to its south, explains Michishita Narushige of the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies in Tokyo. But it also has much to lose if America is chased out of the Pacific: “If the fall of Taiwan means the disengagement of the us from this region, that would be a vital interest.”

Some in America want to make clear that maintaining its Asian role is central to America’s interests, too. Senator Chris Coons of Delaware, a Democrat close to Mr Biden, is co-sponsor of the Strategic Competition Act, a bill with strong bipartisan support that would deepen ties with Taiwan—whether by offering the island trade deals, weapons sales, expanded contacts with American officials or support in its attempts to take part in international forums—as one of several measures to push back against what he calls China’s growing global aggression. To explain the island’s importance to voters he talks of how dependent modern life is on the chips it makes. He also cites the importance of America being seen to keep its word and linking arms with allies to counter China, rather than trying to lead the world through “bluster”.

The seeds of time

It may sound a bit narcissistic for Americans to assume that China’s plans for Taiwan turn on how strong America looks to China. But Chinese experts and officials are sincerely convinced that America is delighted to be Taiwan’s security guarantor and thus gain a chance to meddle in China’s internal affairs. Without America to help, Taiwan will surrender in an instant, they argue, rather as Mr Yang fears. Their disdain for the idea that China might try to win over Taiwanese hearts and minds can be chilling. Unification will not be decided by Taiwan’s “playhouse politics” but by geopolitical power struggles, Zhu Feng of Nanjing University told an annual forum run by the Global Times, a jingoistic party newspaper.

20210501_FBP001.jpg


The fangs of history

Ni Lexiong, a Taiwan expert at Shanghai University of Political Science and Law, says that bellicose commentaries in the state media must, in some limited sense, enjoy official sanction. Such commentators “would be too scared to write about such things without approval”, he says. Buthe scoffs at Westerners who worry that Chinese leaders may feel compelled by the nationalism which such screeds stoke in the public. The views of the masses will not decide what happens, he says: “The key is military power.”

There is much to be said for America’s decades-long policy of strategic ambiguity. Though some American scholars believe it would usefully deter China to hear the Biden administration say it would join any war over Taiwan, it could also provoke China to rash acts or embolden some future leader on Taiwan to declare independence. Logic also supports the Pentagon’s desire to spend the next ten years arming Taiwan, buying new weapons and thus increasing the uncertainty of Chinese commanders and their political masters.

The challenge of such an approach is to generate enough anxiety to stay China’s hand, but not so much that Mr Xi sees Taiwan slipping permanently from his grasp. For all the alarm in Washington, China does not feel like a country on a war footing, or particularly close to one. Several sources briefed on a recent meeting in Alaska between China’s top foreign-policy officials, Yang Jiechi and Wang Yi, and the secretary of state, Antony Blinken, and national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, report that the Chinese delivered shrill and inflexible talking points on Taiwan, but used no new language that showed unprecedented urgency.

China’s public stance involves much sabre-rattling, to be sure. Viewers of state television are never far from their next sight of an aircraft-carrier, or gleaming jets screaming through azure skies. But calls for sacrifice to prepare the public for full-on hostilities are missing. The party’s claims to legitimacy in this, its centenary year, are overwhelmingly domestic and based on order and material prosperity: they are buttressed by images of gorge-spanning bridges and high-speed trains, villagers raised from poverty and heroic doctors beating back covid-19 even as it rages around the outside world.

Nevertheless, China’s visible capabilities and veiled intent are grounds for alarm. Its scorn for Western opinion, as over Hong Kong, is a bad sign. War over Taiwan may not appear imminent in Beijing. But nor, shockingly, is it unthinkable.

China’s growing military confidence puts Taiwan at risk | The Economist

End of Part 2 of 2
 

jward

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imagesblueoh.jpg a billion here, a billion there...eventually it'll add up to some real $$$

Indo-Pacific News - Watching the CCP-China Threat
@IndoPac_Info
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#SouthKorea cancels Korea #China Culture Town project amid mounting anti #Chinese sentiment A $1 billion project to build a tourist district in South Korea has been scrapped due to mounting anti-Chinese sentiment after 650,000 people signed a petition.
Kolon Global Corporation said on Monday it had cancelled the Korea-China Cultural Town project in the face of a fierce public ire sparked by the petition on the presidential Blue House website’s online petition page.
View: https://twitter.com/IndoPac_Info/status/1388357285626322945?s=20
 

jward

passin' thru
Chad O'Carroll
@chadocl

5h


North Korean response to the US policy review: “Now that what the keynote of the U.S. new DPRK policy has become clear, we will be compelled to press for corresponding measures, and with time the U.S. will find itself in a very grave situation.” More soon
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