ALERT The Winds of War Blow in Korea and The Far East

OldArcher

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Here is a scenario that you might consider... It's where China must act, because it has to. It must use it's greatest resource, manpower, before its use is no longer possible. China will have nothing to lose, and possibly, much to gain. It will be swift, violent, and of limited scope- only to what they believe they can "realistically" hold...

I believe that when the 3GD goes, the Chinese will have pre-positioned themselves for surges in the South China Sea, and opposite India, in conjunction with Pakistan. They will attempt to attack without warning, and overwhelm allied defenses. They will have little to lose, and potentially much to gain... Whatever the outcome, their population will be seriously reduced, and for them, the possibility of rapid territorial gains will, at least in the short term, be realized. Another area of possibility, is Siberia, where Russian military forces would be hard pressed to hold. Most Russian forces are centered well toward the West, as NATO forces in being, threaten the Rodina, and civil unrest worries Mad Vlad... Only as long as conventional munitions are utilized, the Chinese may gain ground, without immediate annihilation... If China's ties in the ME, vis-a-vis Turkey and its allies, as well as supported terrorist organizations go hot in that region, free world nations outside of these theaters will be temporaily paralyzed. Likewise, expect conflicts in the US and Allies, Africa, and Latin America to rachet-up significantly. Wherever Chinese communities are located, terrorist operations could originate... Soros is a political whore, seeking to destroy the West. His being in league with the Chinese, would not be a surprise. More American cities, as well as lethal actions by Antifa and BLM, as well as others, will, for a time, be open warfare. No one will be safe... Chaos will reign, as China and other rogue nations attempt to plunge their knives into enemies, recent and ancient. It will be a global mele inspired by a diseased, rabid, and suicidal regime...

Ponder the above, and cut and paste to what you, personally beleive to be most possible/probable...

Have a nice day!

Blessed Be,

OldArcher, Witch
 

jward

passin' thru
..hmm..



InsideNK
@inside_nk

4m

North Korea have ordered 4,500 troops from the 7th Corps to secure the border with China to curb the spread of COVID-19, prevent smuggling, defection attempts and other illegal activities. This was approved by their leader Kim Jong Un himself.
 

Plain Jane

Just Plain Jane


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14 killed, 75 wounded in bomb attacks in south Philippines
By JIM GOMEZ36 minutes ago



1 of 9
EDS NOTE: GRAPHIC CONTENT - In this photo provided by the Philippine Red Cross, a military truck lies at an area where a bomb exploded at the town of Jolo, Sulu province, southern Philippines, Monday, Aug. 24, 2020. Bombs exploded in the southern Philippine town Monday, killing several soldiers and wounding other military personnel and civilians despite extra tight security because of threats from Abu Sayyaf militants. (Philippine National Red Cross via AP)

MANILA, Philippines (AP) — Muslim militants allied with the Islamic State group set off a powerful motorcycle explosive followed by a suicide bombing that together killed 14 people on Monday, many of them soldiers, in the worst extremist attack in the Philippines this year, military officials said.

At least 75 soldiers, police and civilians were wounded in the midday bombings in Jolo town in southern Sulu province, regional military commander Lt. Gen. Corleto Vinluan said. The bombings were staged as the government grapples with the highest number of coronavirus infections in Southeast Asia.

Vinluan said most of the victims, including children, were killed and wounded in the first attack, when a bomb attached to a motorcycle exploded near two parked army trucks in front of a grocery store and computer shop in Jolo.

“It was a vehicle-borne improvised explosive device which exploded while our soldiers were on a marketing run,” Vinluan told reporters.

A second blast, apparently from a female suicide attacker, occurred about an hour later and killed the bomber, a soldier, a police commando and wounded several others, a military report said. It said the suspected bomber walked out of a snack shop, approached soldiers who were securing a Roman Catholic cathedral and “suddenly blew herself up.”

Snipers were deployed in the area to guard against more bombers as the victims were carried to an ambulance.

A third unexploded bomb was reportedly found in a public market. Jolo was immediately placed in a security lockdown by troops and police.

Presidential spokesman Harry Roque condemned the bombings “in the strongest possible terms.”

Initial pictures seen by The Associated Press showed soldiers carrying a man from the scene of the explosion near an army truck while another victim lay on the road. The wreckage of a motorcycle and body parts were seen on the road.

The first bombing was carried out near a town plaza and the cathedral in the predominantly Muslim and poverty-stricken province. The country’s southern region is home to minority Muslims in the largely Roman Catholic nation and has been the scene of decades of Muslim separatist unrest, particularly in remote island provinces such as Jolo.

There was no immediate claim of responsibility for the attacks, but the military blamed an Abu Sayyaf militant commander, Mundi Sawadjaan, who has been linked to suicide bombings in recent years in Sulu.

Military officials said last week that Sawadjaan had plotted bombings in Sulu using two female suicide attackers. Army troops were carrying out a covert operation to locate and capture Sawadjaan and the suicide bombers in June when four army personnel were stopped at a Jolo police checkpoint and later shot to death by a group of policemen.

The army angrily described the killings as a rub out and demanded murder charges be filed immediately against nine policemen. Police officials, however, say it may have been a mistaken encounter between the army and police forces.

The military has been waging a yearslong offensive against the Abu Sayyaf, a small but violent group listed by the United States and the Philippines as a terrorist group for past bombings, ransom kidnappings and beheadings.

Its armed fighters have dwindled in number to a few hundred in recent years due to battle setbacks and surrenders, including a key commander, Abduljihad Susukan, who gave up to authorities two weeks ago after being wounded in battle.

Susukan has been blamed for kidnappings and beheadings of hostages, including foreign tourists. He reportedly surrendered through a Muslim rebel chief who has signed a peace deal and was cooperating with the government.

Military officials said they were not discounting the possibility that Monday’s bombings were staged partly in retaliation for the detention of Susukan, who is now in police custody and faces multiple murder and kidnapping charges.
 

jward

passin' thru
MSPO 2020: South Korean company Hyundai Rotem to propose K2 Black Panther MBT to Poland
MSPO 2020 News Official Show Daily Posted On Monday, 24 August 2020 12:10
South Korean company Hyundai Rotem joins the international defence industry exhibition in Targi Kielce and presents its products. It will propose its K2 Black Panther main battle tank to the Polish army.
Follow Army Recognition on Google News at this link
Army Recognition Global Defense and Security news

South Korean K2 Black Panther MBT (Picture source: Army Recognition)
As part of the "Wolf" new generation tank programme, the Polish Ministry of National Defense intends to purchase equipment designed to replace the T-72M1 and PT-91 Twardy tanks owned by the Polish Armed Forces. Formal, analytical and conceptual work related to the Wilk program began in 2017. This programme is also one of the Technical Modernization Plan priorities - the plan signed last autumn assumes the 2035 horizon.
One of the alternatives under consideration is the Hyundai Rotem proposal. The project may be based upon an industrial and wide-scope cooperation on the K2PL tank project to be produced in Poland. A large contribution of PGZ companies is a part of the scheme. The Chief of the General Staff, General Rajmund Andrzejczak, became acquainted with the K2 tank at last year's visit to the Republic of Korea.
This year, the International Defence Industry Exhibition also hosts the company which presents a 1/7 scale model of the K2PL tank, together with a model of the K2 tank. The K2 Black Panther is a new generation of main battle tank (MBT) designed, developed and manufactured in South Korea by Hyundai Rotem. The K2 was unveiled to the public during ADEX 2009 Defense Exhibition at Seoul Airport.







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MSPO 2020: South Korean company Hyundai Rotem to propose K2 Black Panther MBT to Poland | MSPO 2020 News Official Show Daily | Defence security military exhibition 2020 show daily news category

 

jward

passin' thru
Indian Air Force tests MICA air-to-air missiles

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The Indian Air Force (IAF) has reportedly carried out successful testing of Beyond Visual Range (BVR) anti-air multi-target MICA missile, which will be integrated with the recently acquired Rafale fighter jets.
According to a New Indian Express report, the Indian Air Force conducted the tests, using the Sukhoi Su-30 MKI fighter jets off Odisha coast.
The fighter jet successfully destroyed an aerial target, using the MICA missile at low altitude.


A defence official said: “All mission parameters have been met as the target was destroyed validating the missile’s launch envelope. The missile will equip both Sukhoi and Rafale fighter jets.”
India acquired the MICA missile system from France. It is a fire-and-forget short and medium-range missile system that can be launched from fighter jets, as well as ground units and ships.

The 3.1m-long missile, weighing approximately 112 kg, is capable of destroying targets within a range of 500m to 60 km. It has two variants guided by radio frequency (RF) and infrared (IR).
The testing has been conducted because the Indian armed forces have been engaged in a military standoff with China along the Line of Actual Control for the last three months.


Recently, IAF deployed Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) Tejas on the western front. It moved the first squadron of the aircraft after China reportedly deployed two J-20 stealth fighter jets near the border.
The South Asian nation also received five Rafale jets Ambala Air Force Station (AFS) last month.
 

jward

passin' thru
Chinese diplomat elected member of int'l tribunal for law of the sea

Source: Xinhua| 2020-08-25 04:27:22|Editor: huaxia




139315018_15983008420831n.jpg

Official photo of Duan Jielong, the Chinese ambassador to Hungary. (Photo credit: Chinese Embassy in Hungary)
Since the establishment of the tribunal in 1996, three Chinese have served as judges.
UNITED NATIONS, Aug. 24 (Xinhua) -- The Chinese ambassador to Hungary, Duan Jielong, was on Monday elected a member of the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea (ITLOS).
Duan was among six to have been elected in the first round of voting by the States Parties to the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). The other five were David J. Attard of Malta, Ida Caracciolo of Italy, Maria Teresa Infante Caffi of Chile, Maurice Kengne Kamga of Cameroon, and Markiyan Kulyk of Ukraine.
One seat remains to be filled and a second round of restrictive voting will be held on Tuesday. The contenders will be Kathy-Ann Brown of Jamaica and Rodrigo Fernandes More of Brazil.
ITLOS, an intergovernmental body set up by UNCLOS, has 21 judges with nine-year terms. A third of the members are replaced every three years.
Since the establishment of the tribunal in 1996, three Chinese have served as judges: Zhao Lihai (1996-2000), Xu Guangjian (2001-2007) and Gao Zhiguo (2008-2020). ■
 

northern watch

TB Fanatic
China holds another round of naval drills in South China Sea
In recent developments in the South China Sea, China has announced new naval drills after reportedly seeking fresh diplomatic support from countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations in the face of new challenges to its territorial claims

By The Associated Press
24 August 2020


FILE - In this July 6, 2020, file photo provided by U.S. Navy, the USS Ronald Reagan (CVN 76, front) and USS Nimitz (CVN 68, rear) Carrier Strike Groups sail together in formation, in the South China Sea. The U.S. Navy says the aircraft carrier Ronal

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The Associated Press
FILE - In this July 6, 2020, file photo provided by U.S. Navy, the USS Ronald Reagan (CVN 76, front) and USS Nimitz (CVN 68, rear) Carrier Strike Groups sail together in formation, in the South China Sea. The U.S. Navy says the aircraft carrier Ronald Reagan and its strike group entered the South China Sea earlier in August, 2020, and have been carrying out air operations. China routinely objects to U.S. naval activity in the sea, especially when more than one strike group is present, as happened earlier this year, and when they involve operations with navies from other countries. (Mass Communication Specialist 3rd Class Jason Tarleton/U.S. Navy via AP, File)

BEIJING -- A look at recent developments in the South China Sea, where China is pitted against smaller neighbors in multiple territorial disputes over islands, coral reefs and lagoons. The waters are a major shipping route for global commerce and are rich in fish and possible oil and gas reserves.

———

CHINA HOLDING NEW MILITARY DRILLS

China is holding another round of military drills in the South China Sea amid an uptick in such activity in the area highlighting growing tensions.
The Maritime Safety Administration said the exercises would run from Monday through Sunday. It warned outside vessels to steer 5 nautical miles (9.26 kilometers) clear of the drill area but otherwise gave no details.
China announced late last month that it had held drills in the South China Sea involving long-range bombers and other aircraft.

Chinese forces have also confronted U.S. Naval vessels conducting “freedom of navigation operations” near Chinese-held islands, as well as forces from Australia and countries that challenge China’s claim to the entire strategic waterway.

———

CHINA SEEKS RENEWED ASEAN SUPPORT

China reportedly called together diplomats from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations last month to seek their backing after a new diplomatic challenge from the U.S.

It’s not clear if the meeting, reported Monday by Hong Kong’s South China Morning Post newspaper, yielded any immediate gains as talks between China and ASEAN remain in limbo.
The meeting in Beijing was called three weeks after the U.S. rejected nearly all of Beijing’s South China Sea claims and in effect sided with the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia and Brunei in each of their territorial spats with Beijing. China responded by saying the U.S. was trying to sow discord and was meddling in an Asian dispute to flex its muscles and incite a confrontation.
According to the newspaper report, during the meeting in Beijing in early August, a Chinese official expressed concern about the risk from military activities by “non-regional countries,” a term Beijing uses to refer to the U.S. as well as its allies Japan and Australia.

———

PHILIPPINES PROTESTS EQUIPMENT SEIZURE

The Philippine government filed a diplomatic protest after Chinese forces seized fishing equipment set up by Filipinos in disputed Scarborough Shoal.
China seized the shoal after a tense sea standoff in 2012, and the Philippines brought its disputes to international arbitration the following year. The tribunal in 2016 invalidated China’s claims to virtually the entire South China Sea, but Beijing continues to ignore and defy the decision.
The Department of Foreign Affairs in Manila said in a statement Thursday that the Philippines “also resolutely objected” to China continuing to issue radio challenges to Philippine aircraft patrolling over the disputed waters.
A Chinese government spokesperson responded Friday that its coast guard was enforcing the law in Chinese waters, and that the Philippine aircraft had harmed China’s sovereignty and threatened its security.

———

VIETNAM ASKS MALAYSIA TO INVESTIGATE SHOOTING

Vietnam has asked Malaysia to investigate a coast guard vessel that fired shots at two Vietnamese fishing boats, killing one fisherman.
The Malaysian Maritime Enforcement Agency said officers fired in self-defense after two Vietnamese boats entered Malaysian waters late on Aug. 16. Fishermen aboard threw gasoline bombs and tried to ram their vessel. One Vietnamese fisherman was killed and 18 others were detained, the agency said.
Vietnam’s Foreign Ministry asked Malaysia to investigate and “reprimand officers who killed the Vietnamese citizen and treat other Vietnamese fishermen and their properties in a humane way.”

———

US STRIKE GROUP RETURNS TO SOUTH CHINA SEA

The U.S. Navy says the aircraft carrier Ronald Reagan and its strike group entered the South China Sea earlier this month and have been carrying out air operations.
China routinely objects to U.S. naval activity in the sea, especially when more than one strike group is present, as happened earlier this year, and when they involve operations with navies from other countries.
The strike group includes the carrier, its air wing, the guided missile cruiser USS Antietam, and the destroyers USS Mustin and USS Rafael Peralta.
The force “conducted flight operations with fixed and rotary wing aircraft, and high-end maritime stability operations and exercises,” its commander said in a news release.
“Operations in the South China Sea continue to demonstrate enduring U.S. commitment to allies and partners, and a cooperative approach to regional stability and freedom of the seas,” the release said.

 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Posted for fair use.....

US Condemns PRC For Paracel Missile Shots
The missile firings, DoD says, "further destabilize the situation in the South China Sea. Such exercises also violate PRC commitments under the 2002 Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea to avoid activities that would complicate or escalate disputes and affect peace and stability, and call into question its motivations with ongoing negotiations for a Code of Conduct between China and ASEAN."

By Colin Clark on August 27, 2020 at 6:32 PM

WASHINGTON: For those who’ve been mesmerized by the Republican National Convention, you may have missed that the US flew a U-2 into airspace China has declared off-limits, imposed sanctions on two dozen Chinese companies for their part in building the illegal fake islands, and issued a blunt public statement condemning China’s launches of so-called carrier killing missiles toward the Paracels.
The Defense Department “is concerned about the People’s Republic of China (PRC) recent decision to conduct military exercises, including the firing of ballistic missiles, around the Paracel Islands in the South China Sea on August 23-29,” DoD says in a statement today.
The missile firings, which include some of the vaunted DF-21 anti-ship missiles, “further destabilize the situation in the South China Sea. Such exercises also violate PRC commitments under the 2002 Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea to avoid activities that would complicate or escalate disputes and affect peace and stability, and call into question its motivations with ongoing negotiations for a Code of Conduct between China and ASEAN,” the statement adds.
Chinese-artificial-island-landing-strip.jpg

Chinese artificial island in the South China Sea

But these are just “the latest in a long string of PRC actions to assert unlawful maritime claims and disadvantage its Southeast Asian neighbors in the South China Sea. The PRC’s actions stand in contrast to its pledge to not militarize the South China Sea and are in contrast to the United States’ vision of a free and open Indo-Pacific region, in which all nations, large and small, are secure in their sovereignty, free from coercion, and able to pursue economic growth consistent with accepted international rules and norms.”
On top of all that, even though the US “alerted the PRC” that it expected the Chinese to reduce its militarization and coercion of its neighbors in the South China Sea: “The PRC chose to escalate its exercise activities by firing ballistic missiles. We urge all parties to exercise restraint and not undertake military activities that could threaten freedom of navigation and aggravate disputes in the South China Sea.”
Meanwhile, the Commerce Department belatedly imposed sanctions on the companies who helped China destroy some of the world’s most pristine coral reefs and build fake islands with military bases on them.
Army photo

Air Warfare,
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From Lockheed Martin
The Commerce Department’s release today makes the case pretty clearly:



“Since 2013, the CCP has dredged and constructed more than 3,000 acres across seven features in the South China Sea, which include air defense and anti-ship missile features. In addition, the PRC’s dredging and construction of certain outposts violates the sovereign rights of the Republic of the Philippines, as determined by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in its July 2016 award in a case brought by the Philippines against the PRC.”
While China is pressing hard in Europe to play smiley-face and ensure our trans-Atlantic brethren really believe the PRC doesn’t practice mass surveillance, torture, violate the human rights of many ethnic groups and the people of Hong Kong, the Peoples Liberation Army demonstrates clearly to its neighbors its real intent with these latest missile tests.
“The most destabilizing event in the 21st century is going to be when China can achieve conventional parity at a time and place of its choosing,” Maj. Gen. Tracy King, the Marine Corps’ Director of Expeditionary Warfare, said today. He pointed to a series of war games the Navy has been running to figure out its future force structure, which will depend heavily on what China is expected to do. “These war games are reinforcing that fact. So when they are able to do that, and when they can decide whether or not we’re going or fight or not, that’s going to be extremely destabilizing.”

Recommended
DoD War Games Predict ‘Extremely Destabilizing’ Chinese Military Parity
“If we do come to blows with China, it’s gonna be very confused for the first 30 or 45 days, and then we must fight in a distributed fashion,” said Maj. Gen. Tracy King, Marine Corps’ director of Expeditionary Warfare
By Paul McLeary
Here are the sanctioned companies. You know what to If they try to work with you or your suppliers:
  • China Communications Construction Company Dredging Group Co., Ltd.
  • China Communications Construction Company Tianjin Waterway Bureau
  • China Communications Construction Company Shanghai Waterway Bureau
  • China Communications Construction Company Guangzhou Waterway Bureau
  • China Communications Construction Company Second Navigation Engineering Bureau
  • Beijing Huanjia Telecommunication Co., Ltd.
  • Changzhou Guoguang Data Communications Co., Ltd.
  • China Electronics Technology Group Corporation, 7th Research Institute (CETC-7)
  • Guangzhou Hongyu Technology Co., Ltd., (a subordinate institute of CETC-7)
  • Guangzhou Tongguang Communication Technology Co., Ltd. (a subordinate institute of
    CETC-7)
  • China Electronics Technology Group Corporation, 30th Research Institute (CETC-30)
  • China Shipbuilding Group, 722nd Research Institute
  • Chongxin Bada Technology Development Co., Ltd.
  • Guangzhou Guangyou Communications Equipment Co., Ltd.
  • Guangzhou Haige Communication Group Co., Ltd.
  • Guilin Changhai Development Co., Ltd.
  • Hubei Guangxing Communications Technology Co., Ltd.
  • Shaanxi Changling Electronic Technology Co., Ltd.
  • Shanghai Cable Offshore Engineering Co., Ltd.
  • Telixin Electronics Technology Co., Ltd.
  • Tianjin Broadcasting Equipment Co., Ltd.
  • Tianjin 764 Avionics Technology Co., Ltd.
  • Tianjin 764 Communication and Navigation Technology Co., Ltd.
  • Wuhan Mailite Communication Co., Ltd.


Latest from Breaking Defense


DoD War Games Predict ‘Extremely Destabilizing’ Chinese Military Parity
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Posted for fair use.....

DoD War Games Predict ‘Extremely Destabilizing’ Chinese Military Parity
"If we do come to blows with China, it's gonna be very confused for the first 30 or 45 days, and then we must fight in a distributed fashion," said Maj. Gen. Tracy King, Marine Corps’ director of Expeditionary Warfare

By Paul McLeary on August 27, 2020 at 6:29 PM

WASHINGTON: Worried about America’s eroding dominance at sea, the Pentagon has been running through a series of war games to shake out a plan to stay ahead of the rapid-fire Chinese military modernization effort.


“The most destabilizing event in the 21st century is going to be when China can achieve conventional parity at a time and place of its choosing,” Maj. Gen. Tracy King, the Marine Corps’ Director of Expeditionary Warfare said during an online event today. “These war games are reinforcing that fact. So when they are able to do that, and when they can decide whether or not we’re going or fight or not, that’s going to be extremely destabilizing.”


In an attempt to forestall parity, the Navy and Pentagon leadership are working on a force structure plan that includes more unmanned ships, smaller vessels that would be harder to hit, and long-range weapons that could hold Chinese ships at a distance.



Part of the assessment includes a hard look at how the Navy and Marine Corps would get inside the A2/AD defenses China has built up along its coast and the island chains in the South China Sea.


Comments by King and Rear Adm. Paul Schlise, the Navy’s Director of Surface Warfare today give some insight into the Pentagon’s thinking, and where they see the state of play in the emerging race between the United States and China.


“The war game, what it’s showing us is that China’s invested in what they call Assassins Mace, which are weapon systems that are specifically designed to counter us,” King said. “Our joint force is not built to specifically counter them.” But it’s clear US strategists also see some weakness in the Chinese approach. “What that means is they have an A2/AD capability that is fixed, static, expensive, hard to maintain and really effective in one place.”


That is leading the Navy and Marines into looking for ways to distribute their forces in new ways to try and get inside that protective bubble in multiple ways, and in multiple places.

“If we do come to blows with China it’s gonna be very confused for the first 30 or 45 days, and then we must fight in a distributed fashion,” King added.


The Marines are looking to invest more in longer-range missiles that can be quickly emplaced ashore and begin harassing enemy ships while protecting things like US carrier strike groups.


Marine Commandant David Berger has pushed for major changes to happen quickly, and has already won the approval of Defense Secretary Mark Esper, who approved a new Marine force structure plan this spring.


The approval could signal Esper’s thinking about the wider shift for the Navy as well. Berger is cutting off a significant portion of the Corps’ traditional strength — artillery, armor, and rotary wing lift — in favor of a leaner, more precise and faster force.

“We’re gonna have Marines out there sinking ships,” King said. “You know I’ve even talked to our undersea guys about Marines out there sinking submarines so some of our inside forces can stay hidden and let our adversary worry about me and my hundred guys running around crazy on some island, instead of these capital assets that are really the heart and soul of the joint force.”

The capital assets are aircraft carriers, big deck amphibious ships, and nuclear submarines, all of which would be prime targets in any conflict at sea.

Former acting Secretary of the Navy Thomas Modly ordered a deep dive earlier this year to look at the future of the carrier, given these concerns, an effort then scuttled once Modly resigned in the wake of the COVID outbreak aboard the USS Theodore Roosevelt.

Rear Adm. Paul Schlise suggested today that the carrier, despite some rumblings about the end of their dominance, is here to stay under the emerging new plans. “The Carrier Strike Group remains the premier fighting unit of the Navy, and that force structure is gonna be around for a while,” he said.

While not going into detail about the force structure study, Schlise said the war games taking place to guide it are showing “the value of some of the manned/unmanned force packages that we’re talking about, but also the value of our legacy forces.”

More unmanned ships, smaller frigates, and other relatively inexpensive vessels would allow the Navy to blow past its previous goal of 355 ships, a number Esper has already said is too low.

The admiral backed up that assessment, saying, “everyone speaks to 355 right now and that’s based on some legacy studies. That number, I don’t think, is the right one.”

 

Plain Jane

Just Plain Jane

American Fishing Vessels Spooked As Russian Nuclear Submarine Surfaces Near Alaska
Profile picture for user Tyler Durden
by Tyler Durden
Fri, 08/28/2020 - 09:35
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Though American and its European allies are quite used to by now Russian drills occurring in places like the Black and Baltic Seas, and even in the Eastern Mediterranean off Syria's coast, on Thursday into Friday the Russian navy conducted military games near Alaska, in a first such instance since the Soviet Union.
The military games took place in the Bering Sea and surprisingly involved over 50 warships and some 40 aircraft. The significant size given the location will surely be seen as a provocation by Washington, in a region which over the past year has seen multiple NORAD jets scrambled to intercept Russian long-range bombers coming too near Alaska's coast.
Illustrative file image, via TASS
“We are holding such massive drills there for the first time ever,” Russia’s navy chief, Adm. Nikolai Yevmenov said in an official statement.

The AP reports that the timeline of the exercises remains unclear, and they could be ongoing possibly through the weekend. It's broadly part of a Russian military initiative to better secure the Arctic region and to "protect its resources," as the AP notes.

“We are building up our forces to ensure the economic development of the region,” the Ministry of Defense statement said. “We are getting used to the Arctic spaces.”
Interestingly and certainly provocatively both the Omsk nuclear submarine and the Varyag missile cruiser took part in the games, reportedly launching cruise missiles at targets as part of the exercises.


NORAD says it's closely monitoring as is the US Coast Guard, the latter which was actually tipped off by US fishing vessels which were stunned to apparently observe military activity.
The Moscow Times also confirms that area fishing vessels actually witnessed a Russian nuclear submarine surfacing - something highly unusual:
A Russian nuclear submarine has surfaced near Alaska during navy exercises, spooking American commercial fishing vessels in the area, the U.S. military said early Friday.
Russia’s Defense Ministry announced Thursday that its nuclear-powered cruise missile submarine Omsk and missile cruiser Varyag fired at targets in the Bering Sea as part of its “Ocean Shield 2020” drills. Alaskan media reported that local pollock fishermen had a close encounter with the Russian vessels.


File image via Trident Seafoods


The ultra-rare event of the Omsk nuclear sub surfacing is something that even NATO intelligence is not often able to observe and document.

“We were notified by multiple fishing vessels that were operating out the Bering Sea that they had come across these vessels and were concerned,” a US Coast Guard statement said Thursday.
 

jward

passin' thru
Apex
@Apex_WW


KYODO: #Japan|ese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe checks in at Keio Univ. Hospital, aide says ”regular checkup”
Let's just hope it's a regular checkup.
What's next after Japan PM Abe quits? Potential successors?

Linda Sieg
6 Min Read


TOKYO (Reuters) - The abrupt resignation of Japan’s longest-serving prime minister, Shinzo Abe, on Friday triggered an election in his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) to replace him as its president, followed by a vote in parliament to elect a new prime minister.

FILE PHOTO: Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe visits the Japan House to greet his country's Olympic athletes and delegates, in Rio de Janeiro August 21, 2016. REUTERS/Bruno Kelly
Abe and his cabinet will continue to run the government until a new premier is elected but will not be able to adopt new policies. The winner of the party election will hold the post until the end of Abe’s LDP term in September 2021.

The new party president is virtually assured the premiership, since the party has a majority in parliament’s lower house.

Usually, the party must announce the election for its leader a month in advance, and its members of parliament vote along with grassroots members. In case of a sudden resignation, however, an extraordinary vote can be called “at the soonest date possible” with participants narrowed to MPs and representatives of the party’s local chapters.

The LDP has yet to decide on the format for the elections. It is considering holding the vote around Sept. 15, local media said on Saturday.

Here are details of some likely contenders to take the helm.

SHIGERU ISHIBA
A hawkish former defence minister and rare LDP critic of Abe, Ishiba, 63, regularly tops surveys of lawmakers whom voters want to see as the next premier, but is less popular with the party’s lawmakers.

The soft-spoken security maven has also held portfolios for agriculture and reviving local economies. Ishiba held a meeting of his LDP faction on Friday and indicated he would enter the race, with an announcement expected early next week.

He defeated Abe in the first round of a party presidential election in 2012, thanks to strong grassroots support, but lost in the second round when only MPs could vote. In a 2018 party leadership poll, Ishiba lost heavily to Abe.

He has criticised the Bank of Japan’s ultra-low interest rates for hurting regional banks and called for higher public works spending to remedy growing inequality.


FUMIO KISHIDA
Kishida, 63, served as foreign minister under Abe from 2012 to 2017, but diplomacy remained mainly in the prime minister’s grip.

The low-key lawmaker from Hiroshima has been widely seen as Abe’s preferred successor but ranks low in voter surveys.

Kishida seemed caught off guard by Abe’s announcement. The news broke while he was meeting supporters in eastern Japan. “I want to confirm the facts,” he said, rushing back for a Tokyo-bound train, when asked by reporters for his reaction. Later, in Tokyo, he said he would run for party leader.

Kishida hails from one of the party’s more dovish factions and is seen as less keen on revising the pacifist postwar constitution than Abe, for whom it was a cherished goal.

The BOJ’s hyper-easy monetary policy “cannot go on forever,” Kishida has said.

YOSHIHIDE SUGA
Suga, 71, a self-made politician and loyal lieutenant since Abe’s troubled term as premier in 2006 and 2007, was among a band of allies who pushed Abe to run again for the top post in 2012.

Back in office, Abe tapped Suga as chief cabinet secretary, a pivotal role that includes acting as top government spokesman, coordinating policies and keeping bureaucrats in line.

Talk of Suga as a contender bubbled up in April 2019 after he unveiled the new imperial era name, “Reiwa”, for use on Japanese calendars after the enthronement of the new emperor.

Although he has so far publicly denied interest in being prime minister, Suga went on a publicity blitz in the week before Abe’s resignation, giving interviews to at least four major media organizations.

Suga’s clout was dented by scandals that toppled two cabinet ministers close to him last October.


TARO KONO
Defence Minister Taro Kono, 56, has a reputation as a maverick but has toed the line on key Abe policies, including a stern stance in a feud with South Korea over wartime history.

Educated at Georgetown University and a fluent English speaker, he previously served as foreign minister and minister for administrative reform.

He has differentiated his conservative stances from those of his father, former chief cabinet secretary Yohei Kono, who authored a landmark 1993 apology to “comfort women”, a euphemism for women forced to work in Japan’s wartime military brothels.

SHINJIRO KOIZUMI
The name of Koizumi, 39, now environment minister and the son of charismatic former premier Junichiro Koizumi, is often floated as a future premier, but many consider him too young.

He shares some of Abe’s conservative views and has paid his respects at Tokyo’s controversial Yasukuni Shrine for war dead.

Koizumi has projected a reforming image on the basis of efforts to cut Japan’s backing for coal, the dirtiest fossil fuel, but has typically taken care not to offend party elders.

TOSHIMITSU MOTEGI
Currently foreign minister, Motegi, 64, previously served as economy minister, facing off with U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer in tough negotiations.

Motegi was trade minister under Abe when he returned to power in 2012, tackling talks on the Trans-Pacific Partnership free trade pact.

Educated at the University of Tokyo and Harvard, Motegi was first elected to the lower house in 1993 from the then-opposition Japan New Party. He joined the LDP in 1995.

KATSUNOBU KATO, YASUTOSHI NISHIMURA
As health minister, Kato, 64, was in the limelight in the early days of Japan’s coronavirus outbreak but then-Economy Minister Yasutoshi Nishimura, 57, a former trade official, emerged as point person on virus policy.


In 2015, Kato, a father of four, was handed the portfolio for boosting Japan’s rock-bottom birth rate, a task that has had little success. He is a former official of the finance ministry.

SEIKO NODA
Noda, 59, has made no secret of her desire to become Japan’s first female premier. An Abe critic, the former internal affairs minister, who also held the portfolio for women’s empowerment, fell short of backing to join the race for party leader in 2018.

Reporting by Linda Sieg; Additional reporting by Antoni Slodkowski; Editing by Clarence Fernandez and William Mallard
Our Standards:The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
 

Zagdid

Veteran Member
MSPO 2020: South Korean company Hyundai Rotem to propose K2 Black Panther MBT to Poland
MSPO 2020 News Official Show Daily Posted On Monday, 24 August 2020 12:10
South Korean company Hyundai Rotem joins the international defence industry exhibition in Targi Kielce and presents its products. It will propose its K2 Black Panther main battle tank to the Polish army.
Follow Army Recognition on Google News at this link
Army Recognition Global Defense and Security news

South Korean K2 Black Panther MBT (Picture source: Army Recognition)
As part of the "Wolf" new generation tank programme, the Polish Ministry of National Defense intends to purchase equipment designed to replace the T-72M1 and PT-91 Twardy tanks owned by the Polish Armed Forces. Formal, analytical and conceptual work related to the Wilk program began in 2017. This programme is also one of the Technical Modernization Plan priorities - the plan signed last autumn assumes the 2035 horizon.
One of the alternatives under consideration is the Hyundai Rotem proposal. The project may be based upon an industrial and wide-scope cooperation on the K2PL tank project to be produced in Poland. A large contribution of PGZ companies is a part of the scheme. The Chief of the General Staff, General Rajmund Andrzejczak, became acquainted with the K2 tank at last year's visit to the Republic of Korea.
This year, the International Defence Industry Exhibition also hosts the company which presents a 1/7 scale model of the K2PL tank, together with a model of the K2 tank. The K2 Black Panther is a new generation of main battle tank (MBT) designed, developed and manufactured in South Korea by Hyundai Rotem. The K2 was unveiled to the public during ADEX 2009 Defense Exhibition at Seoul Airport.







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More In : Defense News August 2020 Global Security army industry



MSPO 2020: South Korean company Hyundai Rotem to propose K2 Black Panther MBT to Poland | MSPO 2020 News Official Show Daily | Defence security military exhibition 2020 show daily news category

Got interested in the 'flame thrower' and checked out the link. It is actually a super cool thermobaric MLRS. Fueled air explosives are definitely game changers.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment

From last year....


Where Will the US Base Intermediate-Range Missiles in the Pacific?


Japan’s Ryukyu Islands and Palau are the most probable contenders for new U.S. intermediate-range missiles.

By Evan Karlik
August 30, 2019

-------------
The US has big plans to put new missiles in the Pacific, but finding someone to take them won't be so easy

Stratfor

Aug 26, 2019, 11:55 AM

5d6425fe2e22af0ff5422642

 
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jward

passin' thru
Taiwan Military
@TaiwanMilitary


Taiwan Navy hinted that currently it has only the capability to destroy 20% (Kill Rate) of China CCP PLA's warships.

Here is the analysis 1/2 In order to ramp up the current kill rate to 50%, TW earlier announced to buy.....
2/2...land based Harpoon missiles RGM-84A with TWD50B (USD1.67B). Yesterday TW raised its budget by TWD30B to TWD80B (USD2.67B) in order to increase the kill rate to 70~75%. Here is the calculation



0.75-(0.2+0.2/300×500)=~0.2
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Posted for fair use.....

China`s missile tests further destabilizes situation in South China Sea: Pentagon

Elias Hubbard
August 30, 2020

"This is China's response to the potential risks brought by the increasingly frequent incoming USA warplanes and military vessels in the South China Sea", the PLA source told the South China Morning Post.

In a clear message to the United States, he said Washington should stop "stirring up trouble and causing discord in the South China Sea".

The US Defense Department said on Thursday that Chinese test launches of ballistic missiles in the South China Sea were a threat to peace and security in the region. The Trump administration cited China's development of the DF-26 and similar weapons when it withdrew from the treaty past year. The Center for Strategic and International Studies' (CSIS) MissileThreat website notes that the PLA has not publicly announced whether it has ever tested an anti-ship variant of the DF-26 missile against moving targets at sea.

China launched anti-ship ballistic missiles after the U2 spy plane's incursion, dropping them near the Paracels.

This came after a United States spy plane reportedly entered a Chinese-designated "no-fly zone" in an area where live-fire naval drills were taking place.

In 2016, the United Nations Arbitral Tribunal backed the Philippines' sovereign rights and jurisdiction over the Mischief Reef, or the Panganiban Reef, and the Second Thomas or the Ayungin Shoal and scrapped China's "nine-dashed line" claim over the area.

In Beijing, China's Defence Ministry shot back at "certain US politicians" it said were damaging Sino-US military ties in the run-up to the November election for their own selfish gain, even seeking to create military clashes.

China seized Hoang Sa from South Vietnam by force in 1974, and has since illegally occupied the archipelago. On Thursday a USA guided-missile destroyer sailed close to the Chinese-claimed Paracel Islands. The U.S. has called the Chinese claims illegal, under the Nine-Dash Line and worldwide law, and has recently stepped up military activity in the region.

China's territorial ambitions are contested by at least five other countries, and have been rejected outright by Washington which has declared Beijing's claims to be illegal under global law. "China doesn't want the neighboring countries to misunderstand Beijing's goals".

The US Navy has denied any wrongdoing, claiming that the USS Mustin was carrying out a "routine" operation.

American vessels also often run freedom of navigation operations (FONOPs) in the disputed waters. Beijing declared new physical exercises are set to begin in the Yellow Sea on Saturday and extend by way of future Thursday.

A assertion from US Pacific Air Forces to CNN confirmed a U-2 flight - but mentioned it did not violate any regulations.

Speaking before a regional tour, Esper described the Indo-Pacific as the epicenter of a "great power competition with China". "Pacific Air Forces staff will proceed to fly and function anyplace worldwide law will allow, at the time and tempo of our choosing", the assertion claimed.
 

jward

passin' thru
Ankit Panda
@nktpnd

28m

Replying to
@nktpnd
Appears to be the sharpest spike in tensions along the LAC since the June 15 skirmish—a reminder that this is far from over.



Reuters India
@ReutersIndia

18m

JUST IN: India says China carried out "provocative military movements" in disputed eastern Ladakh border - army statement

------------------------
More summer reruns coming? j

Doge
@IntelDoge


Described as a "violent clash" with hand to hand combat according to
@ShivAroor
.
____________________________

The Cavell Group
@TCG_CrisisRisks

5m

Replying to
@TCG_CrisisRisks
India/China: Increased tensions after PLA movements. Reports of new incident on LAC
BloombergQuint
@BloombergQuint


India says China's People's Liberation Army "carried out provocative military movements to change the status quo" in Eastern Ladakh on the night of August 29/30.
View: https://twitter.com/BloombergQuint/status/1300312302793625603?s=20

Doge
@IntelDoge


Indian media is reporting that Srinagar-Leh highway (near the Line of Control area w/ #Pakistan) has been closed to all vehicles except for military vehicles and defense forces effectively immediately. (India Today
)
 
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Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Posted for fair use....

Beijing’s Strategic Ends: Harmony through Hierarchy and the End of Choice

George Bartle

September 1, 2020

At a 2010 Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Foreign Ministers meeting, China’s chief diplomat, Yang Jeichi made clear Beijing’s perspective on China’s Southeast Asian neighbors when he bluntly stated, "China is a big country and other countries are small countries, and that is just a fact." [1] Yang’s statement likely rankled many of the Southeast Asian leaders in attendance. Yet, unlike their Western counterparts, those same leaders likely understood the assertion through the prism of historic East Asian international relations and were probably unsurprised by a Chinese official uttering what many see as a traditional approach to regional power politics.

Response from the U.S. audience was quite different, with a frenzy of criticism and some congratulatory backslapping amongst Western observers who interpreted the statement as a perceived gaffe that they framed as a belligerent affront to the principle of sovereign equality.[2] The disconnect between America and its ASEAN partners illustrates a deeper problem in how the United States has approached Communist China for decades: foreign policy experts have often used Western political science frameworks to understand and interpret China’s approach to international relations. This article offers a framework outside the Western prism to help strategists create effective competitive tactics through a better understanding of Sino-centric approaches to power.

Understanding China’s Global Ambitions Through a Neo-Tributary Framework
Returning U.S. analytical models to a historically grounded understanding of China’s goals and methods refocuses efforts along a path that accepts China as being Chinese, not something that can be molded into a Western partner or that can be fully understood through Western political science theories. According to the neo-liberal and neo-realist theoretic perspectives guiding U.S. foreign policy, Chinese paradigms of empire, tribute, and vassalage had been relegated to the past, and therefore could be sublimated through a rules-based order governed by U.S.-created and led multilateral institutions. However, neo-liberal ideology failed to grasp that while the People’s Republic of China is a modern nation-state, it also maintains attributes of an ancient empire. This is not to say that China wants to abolish the current system or upend a rules-based order. Rather, Beijing seeks to bend global rules so they conform to its own worldview in an effort to define and direct international behavior, norms, and rituals.

Neo-liberal ideology failed to grasp that while the People’s Republic of China is a modern nation-state, it also maintains attributes of an ancient empire.

Ultimately, a Stalinist-infused neo-tributary approach to international relations, particularly in the Indo-Pacific, seeks an end state where smaller countries are locked into a hierarchical relationship with Beijing—managed not just through hard power, but also deference and ritual—where freedom of choice and the ability to pivot between great powers give way to Beijing’s preferences. While Chinese academics have yet to coalesce around a single Sino-centric theory of international relations, one way of conceptualizing how Beijing achieves its strategic ends was articulated in a 2015 article by Su-Yan Pan and Joe Tin-Yao Lo, two scholars from the Hong Kong Institute of Education, who argued that China’s foreign policy is best understood through a neo-tributary framework that takes into account four core imperial concepts that continue to shape the Chinese Communist Party’s worldview:
  1. Chinese exceptionalism as motive;
  2. Trade and diplomacy as means;
  3. Cultural assimilation as political strategy;
  4. Image building as legitimacy defense.[3]
Chinese Exceptionalism as Motive
Beijing has long pursued a belief in Chinese exceptionalism, which has recently morphed into a more ethnocentric exceptionalism tied to Han Chinese identity.[4] Language, history, and culture all contribute to Beijing’s Sino-centric worldview, and the longevity of Chinese civilization feeds into perceptions of Han exceptionalism. While Imperial China was a hodgepodge of different ethnic groups tied together through Chinese language and cultural institutions, Han Chinese were more often in positions of power and influence within the bureaucracy.

Despite these privileged positions, prior to the fall of Imperial China in 1912, there was little concept of a Han Chinese race. Early 20th century Chinese revolutionaries helped promote a sense of Han identity through anti-Manchu campaigns and other forms of revolutionary zeal, but it was only in the past 40 years the concept of a Chinese race began to permeate widely throughout Chinese society.[5] This has allowed China’s post-Mao leadership to take historical views of Sino-centrism and co-opt it with ethno-nationalist rhetoric that identifies Han Chinese people and culture as exceptional, irreplaceable, and synonymous with China.[6] In modern foreign policy, Friend & Thayer found “the racism, xenophobia, and nativism embedded within the Han centric narrative have made possible a strong ‘us versus them’ mentality that the [People’s Republic of China] uses to promote its national interests.”[7]

Trade and Diplomacy as Means
Although trade was a driving force behind the Roman, British, and American empires, the Ming and Qing Dynasties viewed trade differently. Whereas the British recognized overseas trade was critical to generating wealth and strengthening the empire, China’s rulers were suspicious of foreign trade, viewing it more along the lines of the ancient diplomatic practice of gift exchange and believing trade was something vassal states and barbarians needed from China. As Pan and Lo note, “Trade followed diplomacy and, to Chinese thinking, subdued foreigners and ‘barbarians’ through cultural assimilation” and the performance of Confucian rituals.[8]

Although China now recognizes the importance of trade for its national development and foreign heads of state no longer physically kowtow before Chinese rulers, the link between trade and diplomacy is still an important component of Beijing’s worldview. Much of China’s post-Mao era foreign policy initiatives, such as Good Neighbor, Going Out, and the Belt and Road Initiative are clear examples of how trade and investment remain a unidirectional endeavor—flowing out of China rather than into it from foreigners.

The Belt and Road Initiative includes includes 1/3 of world trade and GDP and over 60% of the world's population.(Image: World Bank)

Rituals of respect also played an important role in trade and diplomacy, and continue to shape how the People’s Republic of China conducts international relations. Although Xi Jinping has called for the creation of a “community of common destiny” that values “equality among sovereign nations regardless of regime type,” Xi and much of the Chinese leadership still see international relations through a hierarchical lens where power determines the pecking order.[9] This view demands China be seen as a great power, and that small states, particularly those in Asia, recognize the asymmetrical differences they have with Beijing. Beijing’s insistence on deference, ritual, and acceptance of China as East Asia’s hegemon manifests in its relationships with Indo-Pacific countries through the pageantry of high-level visits, participation in regional Chinese-led initiatives, avoidance of public disagreements with Beijing, and the repetition of Chinese Communist Party slogans.[10] Using similar methods, Beijing also sees multilateral institutions as important venues for shaping modern-day rituals and deference. Within the United Nations, Beijing has made concerted efforts to inject Chinese slogans into official documents.[11] This includes seemingly innocuous resolutions at the UN Human Rights Council that included terminology closely identified with Beijing such as “win-win cooperation” and “a community of shared future for humankind.”[12] Beijing has made similar attempts at inserting Belt and Road Initiative related slogans into UN documents and statements.

Drawing on the imperial and Stalinist traditions, the Chinese Communist Party wields words not “as vehicles of reason and persuasion,” but as “weapons for defining, isolating, and destroying opponents'' and as a tool to “distinguish friends from enemies.”[13] Domestically, the Chinese Communist Party expects loyal citizens to parrot back its slogans in ritualistic acts of political loyalty known as biaotai or “declaring where one stands.”[14] Like Confucian rituals of deference to the emperor, the Chinese Communist Party’s attempt to shape modern diplomatic ritual through the inclusion of slogans in joint statements or UN documents is an attempt to force smaller powers to make deferential and ritualistic statements of conformity with the People’s Republic of China in exchange for what are viewed as economic and political gifts.

Cultural Assimilation as Political Strategy
Beijing’s attempts to co-opt modern-day rituals are not limited to perfunctory statements. For China, gaining influence over culture through ceremony and ritual is key to maximizing power.[15] By making concepts, objects, and values sacred, Beijing takes them out of the political, and therefore debatable realm, and into an untouchable realm more akin to religion than international relations. Like mantras and prayers, the ritualistic repetition of slogans and physical acts of deference eventually have the effect of shifting perceptions and realities over time. Therefore, while it is easy to see how power grows out of the barrel of a gun, less obvious is how power is wielded through control of culture, language, rituals, norms, and institutions. While the process of assimilation can be coercive, smaller states often voluntarily adopt linguistic, political, philosophical, or institutional features of a more dominant state to gain benefits. In Imperial China, “court rituals, Chinese language, and associated cultural assimilation were the means through which Beijing exercised its power and influence.”[16]

Image Building as Legitimacy Defense
The lynchpin in China’s ability to create a neo-tributary system is its ability to maintain and project its image as a benevolent hegemon that seeks to preserve social and political harmony through peaceful hierarchy. In this sense, China’s image has historically gone hand in hand with more traditional elements of national power in legitimizing its position atop the East Asian order.[17] This also helps explain the often-visceral reaction Beijing has to criticism.

To be sure, foreign criticism does whip up Chinese patriotism and nationalism as it can elsewhere, but for Beijing, these criticisms cut to the core of the Chinese Communist Party’s innate vulnerabilities.

As with Chinese imperial dynasties before it, the Chinese Communist Party needs to be seen as moral, responsible, and benevolent in order to maintain its governing legitimacy. So, while the Chinese Communist Party does use image building to maximize its international power, it is important to remember that its main motivation is inward-focused self-preservation.[18] In the United States on the other hand, governing legitimacy is determined through elections, laws, and Congress, not through the morality, benevolence, or economic performance of an imperial court or ruling clique. As such, foreign criticism of the United States might damage the reputation of a political party or politician, but it does not pose an existential threat to the broader government.

By contrast, and critically for Beijing, undermining China’s international image could eventually threaten the leadership’s domestic power. Therefore, if foreign countries counter Beijing’s assertions that China’s rise under the Chinese Communist Party is benign and will contribute to social harmony and economic prosperity, it also undermines the same foundations the Chinese Communist Party uses to assert its control within China. To be sure, foreign criticism does whip up Chinese patriotism and nationalism as it can elsewhere, but for Beijing, these criticisms cut to the core of the Chinese Communist Party’s innate vulnerabilities.

The Legacy of Marxist-Stalinist Ideology
The Stalinist influences on the Chinese Communist Party can be seen in its paranoid belief of a perpetual battle against internal enemies and western liberalism where struggle is itself a political end.[19] While there are many obvious and subtle examples of how Marxist-Stalinist ideology influences Beijing’s strategic thinking, the concept of contradictions deserves special attention.

In his October 2017 marathon speech at the 19th National Party Congress, Xi Jinping hearkened back to Maoist-era rhetoric when he proclaimed, “realizing our great dream demands a great struggle. It is in the movement of contradictions that a society advances; where there is contradiction there is struggle.”[20] While Marx originally assessed that contradictions would be resolved through “the practical and violent action of the masses,” Stalin added the theme of perpetual struggle to contradictions theory, saying that the only way for the Communist Party to remain strong was by continuously “purging itself.”[21] As a student of Stalin, Mao Zedong, in his famous 1937 essay On Contradictions, wrote that “changes in society are due chiefly to the development of the internal contradictions...it is the development of these contradictions that pushes society forward and gives the impetus for the supersession of the old society by the new.”[22]

That Xi Jinping still focuses on resolving contradictions today is a marker of how embedded this strand of thinking remains within the Chinese Communist Party. Within China, contradictions generally take the form of factions, forces, or ideas that could threaten Chinese Communist Party rule. Outside China, contradictions could be anything that threatens China’s image, questions Beijing’s place near the top of an international hierarchy of power or calls the Chinese Communist Party’s legitimacy into question. Rather than follow traditional Chinese philosophy, which recognizes contradictions as a naturally occurring phenomenon that can be managed and even celebrated, the modern Chinese Communist Party sees contradictions as something that must be resolved as part of a greater struggle to achieve “national rejuvenation.” As Xi said in a 2015 speech, “History has told us that, the cause of the Chinese nation’s rejuvenation, which history and the people have chosen the [Chinese Communist Party] to lead, is correct, must be upheld, and can never be doubted.”[23]

Empathizing with a Sino-Centric Worldview
Like most states, Beijing seeks to maximize Chinese power and influence. While the Chinese Communist Party’s approach to maximizing power relies on traditional tools of statecraft such as military and economic might, its tactics and desired end states differ from those conceptualized in Western political science models. Motivated by a strong sense of Han Chinese exceptionalism, Beijing wields trade, diplomacy, and cultural assimilation alongside its hard power tools to chip away at the Indo-Pacific’s freedom of choice and replace it with a hierarchical power structure managed not just through military and economic might, but also deference and ritual. The injection of Chinese Communist Party slogans into international documents and co-opting the structure and diplomatic rituals of multilateral institutions is Beijing’s attempt to bend regional rules and norms towards its preferences through slow—almost imperceptible—change. Too often, U.S. strategists frame great power competition through Western-centric theories that discount levers of influence such as ritual, language, and deference. An appreciation for, and a better understanding of, Sino-centric approaches to power will better inform strategy and sharpen the diplomatic tools available to practitioners as they work to prevent Beijing’s attempts to impose “harmony” through a People’s Republic of China dominated hierarchy.


George Bartle is a U.S. Foreign Service Officer. The views expressed are those of the author and do not reflect the official position of the Department of State or U.S. Government.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Hummm.......

Posted for fair use.....


August 28, 2020 Topic: Security Region: Asia Tags: ChinaTaiwanMilitaryBlockadeA2/adPLAPLANU.S. Navy
Could China Successfully Blockade Taiwan?

History suggests how Taiwan’s defenders can overcome not just a blockade but an amphibious onslaught.

by James Holmes

Could Communist China blockade Taiwan, which mainland boilerplate portrays as a wayward province? Sure. And the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) would doubtless do so should Xi Jinping & Co. opt to settle the cross-Taiwan Strait stalemate by force. At the same time, it’s doubtful that PLA commanders would make a naval blockade their main effort to subdue the islanders. They would undertake a blockade as an adjunct to more decisive measures such as a cross-strait amphibious offensive.

The PLA could deploy a blockade to stretch and thin out Taiwan’s defenders around the island’s perimeter while Chinese forces ready a concentrated blow across the strait. China hopes direct action will yield clean and swift results, letting it present Asia, America, and the world a fait accompli—a done deal. A blockade could enhance its prospects of success around the margins.

But wouldn’t a blockade spare China the hazards, costs, and diplomatic blowback of a cross-strait assault? Well, blockades come with dangers of their own. Most notably, they are slow-moving affairs. By itself no blockade can deliver the speedy results Chinese leaders want. Quite the reverse. Explains naval historian Julian Corbett: “Unaided, naval pressure can only work by a process of exhaustion” whose effects are both gradual vis-à-vis its target and “galling both to our own commercial community and to neutrals.”

A long, slow grind that affronts everyone is precisely what Beijing hopes to avoid, and for the reasons Corbett lists. Therein lies the opportunity for Taipei.

The PLA Navy could station ships either hard by Taiwanese harbors or at a distance to intercept shipping. Its goal would be to starve out the islanders, depriving them of natural resources necessary to power a modern industrial economy. That would take time and inflict massive human suffering. Starving out a free people is not a good look diplomatically—especially for a regime fresh off crushing freedom in Hong Kong and instituting concentration camps in Xinjiang.

It would gall the international community, as Corbett prophesies.

In light of these realities, combatants typically find blockades unpalatable except as accompaniment to more direct strategies. But they are not easy even then. For example, the American Civil War demonstrates how dicey the politics, legalities, and strategy of blockades can get. Three quick points from that intra-American bloodletting.

One, what foreign powers think matters—and the language political leaders use to describe things shapes how they think and what they do. At the outset of war the Abraham Lincoln administration mistakenly announced that the Union Navy would impose a blockade on the breakaway Confederacy. Mistakenly because a blockade is a legal act of war. It confers status and a measure of legitimacy, signifying that a combatant might prevail and take its place in the society of nations.

Think about it. War is something lawful belligerents do when they cannot resolve their differences through diplomacy. Union leaders wanted to brand the Confederates insurgents or pirates—denying the South any patina of legitimacy and discouraging foreign powers from granting it diplomatic recognition or otherwise involving themselves. The official narrative held that the war was a purely internal matter. And yet Washington couldn’t walk back its diplomatic and legal blunder. The early misstep left open the possibility that European powers might interject themselves into the struggle.

They might mediate a peace that left the Confederacy standing as an independent nation.

And indeed Great Britain and France did contemplate embroiling themselves in the fracas through diplomacy. In the end their go/no-go decision rode on the fortunes of the battlefield. Neither London nor Paris was prepared to risk diplomatic capital on a likely loser, but Europeans might back a South whose armies fought to a stalemate. Not until it became apparent that the Union would prevail in the Civil War, sooner or later, did the great powers abandon fancies of intervention.

Historian Samuel Flagg Bemis tenders a glum verdict on this episode: “Domestic strife invites foreign difficulties. This is an axiom of diplomacy.” And it is an axiom Xi Jinping cannot flout any more than Abraham Lincoln could. Chinese Communist magnates have reason to dread outside entanglements during a cross-strait war. All the more reason to do something uptempo rather than trust to a slow-paced, politically fraught strategy like a blockade.

Two, if the American Civil War highlights the problems innate to naval blockades, it also seems to have revealed some solutions to Beijing. Any power that covets quick victory in a limited war tries to isolate its opponent diplomatically—and therefore militarily. It forestalls intervention. Isolating the foe simplifies the strategic problem, keeping the encounter to a one-on-one fight. For Chinese officialdom, studying the Civil War suggested a diplomatic strategy to discourage the United States from interceding on Taiwan’s behalf.

Chinese Communists are masters of deploying wordplay for political effect. In 2005 Beijing enacted a law reserving the right to use armed force to settle the cross-strait impasse. It rendered the law into English under the title “Anti-Secession Law.” The word choice cannot have been accidental. Depicting the law as a measure against “secession” rather than the more precise translation, “national splittism,” seems to have been an effort to conjure up the Civil War in the minds of U.S. political leaders and the electorate.

The mainland cast itself in the role of the North. That makes Taiwan the South.

China’s strategy may seem too clever by half, but it actually makes sense. In American memory, secession is what slaveholding rebels—evildoers and enemies of national unity—do. What U.S. president risks war to save a modern-day Confederacy? Now, the likeness between liberal Taiwan and the Confederacy doesn’t pass the giggle test. But some Americans might buy the comparison. At a minimum Beijing could hope the analogy’s visceral emotional impact would induce Washington to hesitate while debating policy and strategy toward the conflict.

Hesitancy would grant the PLA time to complete its mission of conquest. And again, time is what it needs. If China did center its strategy on a blockade (or another peripheral strategy such as aerial bombardment), such a respite could partly alleviate the pitfalls of gradualism of which Corbett wrote. This was a diplomatic stratagem worth trying, no matter how the PLA decided to proceed in the strait.

Whether word games work is another question. It is doubtful foreign capitals sincerely believe China’s effort to discredit Taiwan. They might placate a bombastic China in peacetime. They might even revoke diplomatic recognition for Taipei. It’s quite another when Chinese warships and warplanes try to strangle an open society fighting for its life. That’s not a good look for China diplomatically. It’s a brutal look—and it would cast disrepute on any narrative portraying Xi’s China as Lincoln’s Union.

Beijing probably fears outsiders will come to Taiwan’s aid when forced to choose. All the more reason it hopes to use cruelty well—incisively and swiftly—rather than settle for a strategy of incrementalism that might come to naught.

And three, the American Civil War holds strategic and operational lessons for China. They will come as cold comfort to PLA overseers. Historian Alfred Thayer Mahan, who served on blockade duty with the Union Navy, jeered at his navy’s rickety cordon in retrospect. Mahan maintains that a sufficiently numerous Southern populace could have built a serious navy. Southerners could have gathered forces at some place along the Union perimeter and punched through to the high seas.

Yet they did not—and the Northern blockade held. So Beijing should take heart. It too commands overbearing demographic, industrial, and economic advantages over its opponent. It too could prevail through naval pressure alone. Right?

Not necessarily. Taiwan bears little physical resemblance to the American South, a sprawling, thinly populated region suffering from distended, permeable land frontiers with its enemy. Rivers were another strategic liability. Mahan notes that Confederates “admitted their enemies to their hearts” once the Union Navy forced its way past New Orleans into the Mississippi River, and thence into the deep continental interior. Union sea power sealed off the South with a blockade while dismembering it from within.

But Taiwan is more like Cuba, an island Mahan acclaimed as a mini-continent whose inhabitants could outflank a blockade. It was blessed with natural resources, making its populace hard to starve out. Blockade runners could shift from side to side, probing for and exploiting soft spots in the quarantine line. Mahan deemed Cuba prime real estate for a U.S. Navy base during the age of British maritime supremacy, when a naval war in the Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico remained far from unthinkable, albeit improbable.

The comparison to Cuba should give heart to Taiwan’s defenders while giving China pause. The likeness between Taiwan and Cuba is inexact, as all comparisons are. The most glaring difference: Cuba rambles on for some 700 miles between its western and eastern tips, while Taiwan runs only about 240 miles from north to south, its major axis. Acreage matters. And yet Taiwan has rugged and indented shorelines, mountainous topography, and a populace with intimate acquaintanceship with its strategic features. It has advantages of its own to offset geographic size. Its armed forces must turn them to maximum effect.

The Cuban example suggests how Taiwan’s defenders can overcome not just a blockade but an amphibious onslaught. Beijing needs to win in a hurry, denying the island and its protectors time to react in force. Taipei mainly needs to stall for time. It needs to prolong any cross-strait war, reminding the international community it is a fighter while allowing the United States and potentially other rescuers time to marshal a response, fight their way to the scene of combat, and make a difference. Studying the American Civil War could pay dividends for Taiwan as well as China, showing the island’s guardians how to make trouble for their archfoe through diplomacy, law, and military strategy.

And troublemaking is what it’s all about. Strategic guidance from Corbett: make things worse to make them better. Use every resource at your disposal to make maritime operations galling for China—and for everyone else—and you may endure.


James Holmes is J. C. Wylie Chair of Maritime Strategy at the Naval War College. The views voiced here are his alone.
 

jward

passin' thru
(LEAD) N. Korea moving to boost missile capabilities: U.S. defense official

All News 09:05 September 03, 2020





(ATTN: UPDATES with reports of a U.S. expert claiming North Korea may be preparing to unveil its first solid-fueled ICBM in last 7 paras)
By Byun Duk-kun
WASHINGTON, Sept. 2 (Yonhap) -- North Korea is continuing to build its long-range missile capabilities, possibly including a submarine-launched ballistic missile, a ranking U.S. defense official said Wednesday.
"We don't know what the risk is because we know that North Korea is trying to increase the size of its ICBM capabilities, maybe even move to a submarine launched ballistic missile, but we don't know the extent of that," said Rob Soofer, deputy assistant secretary of defense for nuclear and missile defense policy.

Shown are images of the test-firing of North Korea's Hwasong-15 intercontinental ballistic missile on Nov. 29, 2017, released by the Rodong Shinmun, an organ of North Korea's ruling Workers' Party. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)

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Soofer's remark comes months after the South Korean Defense Ministry said the North may showcase a new intercontinental ballistic missile or a submarine-launched ballistic missile in a massive military parade to mark the 75th anniversary of the founding of its ruling Workers' Party on Oct. 10.

North Korea has kept a moratorium on nuclear and ballistic missile testing since late 2017 when it staged its sixth and latest nuclear test, a few months before leader Kim Jong-un held a historic summit with U.S. President Donald Trump.

The communist state, however, is suspected of having maintained clandestine programs to further its nuclear and missile capabilities.

Soofer, speaking in a webinar hosted by U.S.-based Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, said the U.S. is enhancing its missile defense capabilities in response, partly with the standard missile-3 (SM-3) block IIA, which he said may be deployed in the near future.

"We will conduct a test before the end of this calendar year, and if it works, then figure out some way to integrate into our defense," he said.

"And if it does work now, we have the capability to address the North Korean threat," added Soofer.

The so-called U.S. missile shield has partly been blamed for triggering an arms race, especially with nuclear states such as China and Russia, but the defense official insisted the new SM-3 interceptors will pose no threat to such countries, given their small number and the fact that they will be "spread throughout the region."

When asked about ongoing discussions on the benefits of the U.S. pledging to "no first use" of nuclear weapons, the defense department official said the U.S. should not give its adversaries and those of its allies the wrong idea.

"The problem with a no first use pledge is that it lowers the risk to adversaries who are contemplating a conventional attack against our allies. They may think ... if they attack us with conventional forces, overwhelming conventional forces, say, in the Korean Peninsula, that they could push us back," he told the online seminar.

South Korea has been and still is under the U.S. nuclear umbrella, under which the U.S. offers nuclear deterrence against threats from other nuclear states against South Korea, a non-nuclear state.

A U.S. expert on North Korea later claimed the North may unveil its first-ever solid-fueled ICBM at the upcoming Oct. 10 parade, citing White House and U.S. intelligence officials.

"That seems to be the most likely of scenarios based on their history, and it's what we are expecting, but, of course, we are hoping to be proven wrong," Harry Kazianis wrote in an article published by U.S. bimonthly magazine National Interest.

A solid-fueled missile would provide much more mobility, Kazianis said, adding that North Korea's current-long range ICBMs -- the Hwasong-14 and Hwasong-15 -- use liquid-based fuel that requires longer preparation times and cannot be left in a fueled state due to the corrosive nature of the chemicals used.

"Solid-fueled missiles carry the advantage of being able to stay in a fueled and ready-to-strike state. As a result, they are much more reliable and can be launched faster," he said.

In December 2019, North Korea staged what it called a "very important test" followed by "another crucial test," both at its satellite launch site, known as the Dongchang-ri site.

Kazianis noted that many suspect the tests to have been based on solid-fuel technology.

Officials from Seoul and Washington have said the tests appeared to have involved liquid-fuel engines for multi-stage rockets.

bdk@yna.co.kr
(END)
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