ALERT The Winds of War Blow in Korea and The Far East

[northern watch]

Seoul: N. Korea may conduct underwater-launched missile test
A South Korean military official says North Korea may soon conduct its first underwater-launched ballistic missile test in about a year amid long-stalled nuclear talks with the United States
By HYUNG-JIN KIM Associated Press
16 September 2020

The Associated Press
FILE - In this Saturday, April 15, 2017, file photo distributed by the North Korean government, Polaris submarine launched ballistic missiles (SLBM) are paraded to celebrate the 105th birth anniversary of Kim Il Sung, the country's late founder, in Pyongyang, North Korea. North Korea could soon conduct its first underwater-launched ballistic missile test in about a year, South Korea’s military said Wednesday, Sept. 16, 2020, amid long-stalled nuclear talks between the North and the United States.(Korean Central News Agency/Korea News Service via AP, File)

SEOUL, South Korea -- North Korea may soon conduct its first underwater-launched ballistic missile test in about a year, a top South Korean military official said Wednesday, amid long-stalled nuclear talks between the North and the United States.

In written remarks to lawmakers ahead of a confirmation hearing, Won In-choul, the nominee for chairman of South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff, said North Korea has been repairing recent typhoon damage at its northeastern Sinpo shipyard, a place where it builds submarines.

Shortly after the repairs are complete, there is a chance it will carry out a submarine-launched ballistic missile test, Won said. He said South Korea’s military is keeping a close watch on developments there, according to a copy of his remarks provided by a lawmaker, Kang Dae-sik.

In recent years, North Korea has been pushing hard to acquire the ability to launch missiles from submarines in what experts say is a worrying development because such weapons are difficult to detect before launch. A test of an underwater-launched missile by North Korea last October was the first of its kind in three years, and the most provocative weapons test since North Korea entered nuclear negotiations with the U.S. in 2018.

The nuclear talks have made little headway since the second summit between North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and U.S. President Donald Trump in Vietnam in early 2019 collapsed due to disputes over U.S.-led sanctions against North Korea.

Jung Changwook, head of the private Korea Defense Study Forum in Seoul, said North Korea could perform a submarine-launched ballistic missile, or SLBM, test to upgrade its nuclear attack capability and put pressure on Washington after the U.S. presidential election in early November.

There has been speculation that North Korea may test such a missile before the anniversary of the founding of its ruling Workers’ Party on October 10. Jung said that is possible, but stressed that North Korea is aiming more at pressuring the U.S. rather than celebrating its state anniversary.

Some experts say it's unlikely that North Korea will conduct any major weapons test soon because it is grappling with multiple crises, including typhoon damage, the coronavirus pandemic that led to the closure of its border with China — its biggest trading partner — and harsh U.S.-led sanctions.

Foreign experts say past North Korean underwater-launched missile tests were conducted from a submersible barge with a single launch tube, not a functioning submarine. In July 2019, North Korean state media said Kim inspected a newly built submarine which observers said appeared to be the North’s most sophisticated model with several launch tubes.

Jung said the possible upcoming test would also be made from the barge, not the new submarine, to not provoke the United States too much.

According to 38 North, a website specializing in North Korea studies, recent satellite images of the Sinpo shipyard show the repositioning or departure of the submersible test barge. It said the barge’s location “may signal an impending SLBM test though conducting such a launch on the heels of a destructive typhoon seems unlikely.” It said the barge may have been moved somewhere for repairs.

Jung said a missile fired from the barge would have a potential range of 300-500 kilometers (185-310 miles), thus posing no direct threat to the U.S. mainland. Despite the deadlocked nuclear talks, North Korea hasn’t conducted nuclear or long-range missile tests in an apparent bid to keep chances for a resumption of diplomacy alive.

Seoul: N. Korea may conduct underwater-launched missile test

A South Korean military official says North Korea may soon conduct its first underwater-launched ballistic missile test in about a year amid long-stalled nuclear talks with the United States

abcnews.go.com

 

[northern watch]

China: War games a signal to Taiwan leader, foreign backers
China says its recent war games staged in air space near Taiwan were a deliberate signal to the island's leadership and its foreign supporters that Beijing is serious about its vow to assert its sovereignty claim

By The Associated Press
16 September 2020

BEIJING -- Recent Chinese war games near Taiwan were a deliberate signal to the leaders of the island and its foreign backers that Beijing intends to make good on its vow to defend what it considers Chinese sovereignty, a government spokesperson said Wednesday.

Ma Xiaoguang of the Chinese Cabinet's Taiwan Affairs Office said the exercises were a “necessary measure" because Taiwan's leaders had been engaging in activities aimed pushing the island's formal independence from China. He said Taiwan's leaders had sought support from abroad and were doing so in a bid to hamper China's development.

“The situation between the sides at present is even more grave and complicated. The Democratic Progressive Party authorities and the Taiwanese independence forces are behind this," Ma said, referring to Taiwan's ruling party, which renewed its hold on the presidency and parliament in elections earlier this year.

“We have the determination and the capability to defeat all Taiwan independence activities and absolutely safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity," Ma told reporters at a regularly schedule briefing.

Taiwan said Chinese warplanes entered its airspace over two days last week during the large-scale war games that it called a “serious provocation to Taiwan and a grave threat to regional peace and stability.”

It said such actions by China’s People’s Liberation Army threaten the entire region and urged the international community to respond.

China has been stepping up its threat to bring the self-governing island under its control by military force with frequent war games and aerial patrols. That follows the apparent failure of its efforts to win over the island's 23 million people to the prospect of political unification under the “one country, two systems" framework in place in China, with a large majority of Taiwanese favoring maintaining the status quo of de facto independence.

China cut contacts with Taiwan’s government following the 2016 election of independence-minded President Tsai Ing-wen, who was re-elected this year, and has sought to isolate her diplomatically while ratcheting up political, military and economic pressure.

At Wednesday's briefing, Ma repeatedly side-stepped questions about the decision by Taiwan’s China-friendly Nationalist Party not to send a delegation to attend an annual cross-strait economic and cultural forum in the Chinese city of Xiamen following remarks by a Chinese television presenter seen as disparaging.

After repeated questioning, Ma said his understanding was the decision was dictated by Taiwanese internal politics, citing unidentified media sources in Taiwan.

Ma also denied reports that the Chinese presenter had been asked to apologize for her statement that the Nationalist delegation was coming “begging for peace."

The Nationalists have lost badly in the past two presidential elections, largely as a result of perceptions that they are too close to Beijing and willing to sell out Taiwan's interests for political and economic gain. The party had run Taiwan for decades, partly under martial law, after Chiang Kai-shek moved it to the island following the Communist takeover of mainland China in 1949.

China has sought relentlessly to isolate the Tsai's government even while she draws closer to key ally the United States. Beijing has whittled Taiwan's roster of diplomatic allies down to just 15 and blocked its representatives from attending international gatherings, demanding that Tsai agree to recognize Taiwan as a part of Chinese territory.

On Tuesday, Taiwanese foreign ministry spokesperson Joanne Ou protested British-based conservation group BirdLife International’s move to exclude Taiwan’s Chinese Wild Bird Federation as a result of the Chinese government’s “intervention and suppression regarding ecological conservation activities.”

“BirdLife International cooperated with China to oppress the wild bird society of Taiwan. Its political consideration is an obstacle to international conservation activities,” Ou said.

In a statement, the Chinese Wild Bird Federation said BirdLife had demanded it to sign a document formally committing to not promote or advocate the legitimacy of the Republic of China, Taiwan's formal name, or the independence of Taiwan from China.

“As an apolitical organization which has never taken a stance on any such issue, we felt it was inappropriate to sign such a document and were unable to comply. We are not political actors, we are conservationists," the federation said.

BirdLife International did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

China: War games a signal to Taiwan leader, foreign backers

China says its recent war games staged in air space near Taiwan were a deliberate signal to the island's leadership and its foreign supporters that Beijing is serious about its vow to assert its sovereignty claim

abcnews.go.com

 

[northern watch]

 

[northern watch]

Hollywood Director Judd Apatow: ‘China Has Bought Our Silence’

Getty Images
Jack Beyrer - September 15, 2020 6:00 PM
Free Beacon

Director Judd Apatow told MSNBC on Tuesday that China has "bought" the silence of Hollywood.

"Instead of us doing business with China and that leading to China becoming more free, what has happened is a place like China has bought our silence with their money," Apatow said. "They have just completely shut down critical content about human-rights abuses in China."

Apatow is an award-winning director famous for his role in creating smash comedy hits such as Superbad, Talladega Nights, Anchorman, and Step Brothers.

Unlike much of Hollywood, Apatow has also been an unflinching critic of China. "It is shameful that no US companies and very few politicians speak up about concentration camps in China," he tweeted last week. "The United States has abandoned the world when it comes to human rights."

Apatow works in an industry—filmmaking—that is one of the most infiltrated by the Chinese Communist Party. Last week, Disney's new Mulan adaptation stirred controversy for thanking CCP authorities with ties to the ongoing Uighur genocide in Xinjiang in the credits.

In July, a Washington Free Beacon report detailed the extent to which Beijing has moved into Hollywood. The CCP has ties to multiple private enterprises working in the American film industry, and filmmakers have been so concerned about Chinese market entry that in movies such as Top Gun, any anti-CCP imagery or plot devices have been rooted out.

These decisions have not gone unnoticed by many in Washington. Last week, Sen. Josh Hawley (R., Mo.) and 14 Republican lawmakers sent letters to Disney CEO Robert Chapek blasting Disney's cooperation with the Chinese regime during the filming of Mulan.

"Disney's whitewashing of the ongoing Uighur genocide is contrary to all of your company's supposed principles," Hawley wrote. "Your decision to uncritically approve this film's release rather than apologizing to those harmed by Disney's actions is reprehensible. Your decision to put profit over principle, to not just ignore the CCP's genocide and other atrocities but to aid and abet them, is an affront to American values."

Hollywood Director Judd Apatow: 'China Has Bought Our Silence'

Director Judd Apatow told MSNBC on Tuesday that China has "bought" the silence of Hollywood.

freebeacon.com

 

[danielboon]

Marines practiced taking down a hostile ship in the South China Sea in a 'flex' at China

Marine Cpl. Richard Simons IV provides aerial security during a Visit, Board, Search, and Seizure mission on a UH-1Y Venom helicopter, September 5, 2020. US Marine Corps/Cpl. Brandon Salas

• US Marines practiced taking down a hostile ship in the South China Sea last week, fast-roping onto the USS Germantown and cutting through simulated barriers to enter and clear its passageways.
• Visit, board, search, and seizure, or VBSS, exercise are fairly common for the Marines, but doing one in the South China Sea, amid heightened tensions with China, is noteworthy.
• Visit Business Insider's homepage for more stories.

US Marines conducted a simulated takedown of a hostile ship in the South China Sea last week in a supposed "flex" against Chinese claims in the hotly disputed waters, according to a press release from the service.
The USS Germantown stood in as a "foreign ship that had been identified as a non-compliant vessel transporting illicit cargo," which was taken down by Marines assigned to the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit's maritime raid force, the press release said.
The raid force — consisting of two platoons of reconnaissance Marines and a security element — fast-roped from helicopters onto the Germantown before cutting through simulated barriers to enter and clear the ship's passageways, according to the press release.

Marines set security during a simulated Visit, Board, Search and Seizure mission aboard USS Germantown, September 5, 2020. US Marines Corps/Lance Cpl. Kolby Leger
They detained "hostile forces" and snatched a "notional cache" of illegal weapons, the release added.
"The Commandant of the Marine Corps gave specific instruction in his planning guidance to be first on the scene, first to help, first to contain a brewing crisis, and if required to do so, first to fight," Col. Michael Nakonieczny, commanding officer of the 31st MEU, said in the release.
"The tactical discipline and aggressive action displayed this weekend by the sailors and Marines ... demonstrates to our Commandant, our allies and partners, and our adversaries that we are prepared to do just that."
Though such operations, known as visit, board, search, and seizure missions, or VBSS, are fairly commonplace for the Marine Corps and Navy, the choice of venue is notable.

Marines cut through a metal plate during a simulated visit, board, search, and seizure mission aboard USS Germantown, September 6, 2020. US Marine Corps/Sgt. Danny Gonzalez
China has claimed vast areas of the South China Sea, a major shipping route with an estimated $3 trillion in trade passing through it and billions of barrels of untapped oil below the surface. Vietnam, Taiwan, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Brunei all have competing claims, according to the BBC.
Aside from holding military exercises and intimidating its neighbors in the disputed waters, Beijing has built more than two dozen island outposts in the area despite a 2016 international tribunal ruling against China's claims, a ruling which Chinese officials dismissed as a "sham."
Relations between China and the U.S. have continued to sour over the past year. In July, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo called China's claims in the South China Sea "completely unlawful" while calling for the international community to defend the freedom of the seas.
Meanwhile, China launched two missiles into the South China Sea in August, "sending a clear warning to the United States," according to the South China Morning Post. The provocative move came one day after the Chinese Defense Ministry accused an American U-2 spy plane of "trespass[ing]" into its airspace.

Marines, set security during a simulated Visit, Board, Search and Seizure mission aboard USS Germantown, September 5, 2020. US Marines Corps/Lance Cpl. Kolby Leger
Also that month, the Trump administration banned two dozen Chinese companies from buying American products, according to The New York Times, citing their role in constructing artificial islands in the South China Sea. It also imposed visa restrictions on Chinese citizens over the practice.
The U.S. Navy has stepped up its patrols in the South China Sea, which it calls freedom of navigation operations. The guided-missile destroyer USS Mustin transited the area one day after China launched missiles on Aug. 26, according to U.S. Naval Institute News. The USS Halsey transited the South China Sea a few days later.
According to the Marine press release, the Marines embarked on three ships assigned to the America Amphibious Readiness Group, "operated in the South China Sea for a short time before moving on to continue planned exercises elsewhere in the region."
The press release was also accompanied by a photograph of four Marines flexing their biceps, the waters behind them.
"Marines flex in the South China Sea," the caption read.

US Marine Corps

Marines practiced taking down a hostile ship in the South China Sea in a 'flex' at China

Visit, board, search, and seizure, or VBSS, exercises are common, but doing one in the South China Sea, amid tensions with China, is noteworthy.

www.businessinsider.com

 

[jward]

EndGameWW3
@EndGameWW3
55m

Indian Army fully geared to fight full-fledged war in eastern Ladakh: Northern Command http://toi.in/AMRJcb4/a24gkvia
@timesofindia

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1306263568095084546

View: https://twitter.com/EndGameWW3/status/1306263568095084546?s=20

 

[jward]

..sorry. serious stuff, I know, but they sure make it sound like uber fun, too!..

Indo-Pacific News
@IndoPac_Info
21m

#US Marines practiced taking down a hostile ship in the #SouthChinaSea in a 'flex' at #China Visit, board, search & seizure, or VBSS, exercise are fairly common for the Marines, but doing one in the South China Sea, amid heigh tensions with China, is new.
https://twitter.com/IndoPac_Info/status/1306461910661881856?s=20





Indo-Pacific News
@IndoPac_Info

US Marines practiced taking down a hostile ship in the South China Sea last week, fast-roping onto the USS Germantown and cutting through simulated barriers to enter and clear its passageways.
The USS Germantown stood in as a "foreign ship that had been identified as a non-compliant vessel transporting illicit cargo," which was taken down by Marines assigned to the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit's maritime raid force, the press release said.




Indo-Pacific News

@IndoPac_Info
·
24m

The raid force — consisting of two platoons of reconnaissance Marines and a security element — fast-roped from helicopters onto the Germantown before cutting through simulated barriers to enter and clear the ship's passageways, according to the press release.

 

[jward]

China says will make 'necessary response' to U.S. official's Taiwan visit
By Reuters Staff
3 Min Read

BEIJING/TAIPEI (Reuters) - China will make a “necessary response” to a visit by U.S. Undersecretary for Economic Affairs Keith Krach to Chinese-claimed Taiwan, and has lodged a complaint with Washington, the foreign ministry said on Thursday ahead of his arrival.

Slideshow ( 3 images )
Krach, who arrived in Taipei on Thursday afternoon, is in Taiwan for a memorial service on Saturday for former President Lee Teng-hui, who was revered by many on the island and internationally as the father of Taiwan’s democracy.
Krach is expected to meet Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen on Friday.
His visit follows one last month by U.S. Health Secretary Alex Azar, the highest-level U.S. official to come to the democratic island in four decades.
Speaking in Beijing, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said China has lodged “stern representations” with Washington about Krach’s trip, and that it opposed any official exchanges between the United States and Taiwan.

The visit will give succour to the forces of Taiwan independence and damage Sino-U.S. ties, Wang said.
“We urge the U.S. side to fully recognise the extreme sensitivity of the Taiwan issue,” Wang said. “China will make a necessary response depending on how the situation develops.”
He did not give details.
Relations between China and the United States have nosedived in recent months, with disagreements over Taiwan, trade, human rights, the coronavirus pandemic and other issues.

China views Taiwan’s president as a dangerous separatist. She says the island is already an independent country called the Republic of China, Taiwan’s formal name.
Krach is also likely to hold at least some form of trade talks during his trip, though details have not been announced.
Taiwan has long sought a free trade deal with the United States, but Washington has complained about barriers to access for U.S. pork and beef. Taiwan said that was for health reasons, especially with concern over mad cow disease and additives.
However, late last month, Tsai said her government could ease restrictions on pork and beef imports, allowing in U.S. pork containing ractopamine, an additive that enhances leanness, and allow in U.S. beef from cattle more than 30 months old.
But this has run into domestic objections. Taiwan’s main opposition party, the Kuomintang, last weekend began collecting signatures for a referendum to block the pork imports, saying ractopamine was a health threat.
Reporting by Yew Lun Tian and Ben Blanchard; Editing by Alex Richardson, Robert Birsel
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

China says will make 'necessary response' to U.S. official's Taiwan visit

China will make a "necessary response" to a visit by U.S. Undersecretary for Economic Affairs Keith Krach to Chinese-claimed Taiwan, and has lodged a complaint with Washington, the foreign ministry said on Thursday ahead of his arrival.

www.reuters.com

 

[jward]

Tracking China’s Third Aircraft Carrier



China is making steady progress in constructing what is believed to be its third aircraft carrier.1 Commercial satellite imagery collected on August 18, 2020, shows significant developments in the construction of the vessel and additional improvements to the infrastructure at Jiangnan Shipyard.
ChinaPower has tracked military developments at Jiangnan Shipyard since late 2018, and originally identified the presumed build site of the third carrier in May 2019. Recent satellite imagery shows that construction of the carrier has moved to a secondary location at Jiangnan. While this relocation took place between May 24 and June 2, it was not until mid-August that satellite imagery provided a clear view of the vessel at its new location. For the first time since construction began, the vessel’s hull blocks are laid out in order of construction and uncovered by environmental shelters, allowing the clearest view yet of the carrier.

Click image to enlarge
There are nine hull blocks spaced out on the dry dock. The blocks stretch roughly 351 meters from bow to stern (including the spaces between them). Excluding these spaces, the vessel’s visible hull blocks total roughly 297 meters in length. The longest block, which comprises the stern, is about 49 meters in length. In terms of width, the widest hull blocks measure approximately 40 meters.
The currently visible hull blocks generally reflect the size of the vessel at its waterline. As work on the carrier progresses, additional blocks will be placed on top of the existing ones. The vessel’s superstructure, including the flight deck and island, will then be placed on top of these blocks.2 This will significantly increase the vessel’s overall footprint and lend it a more easily recognizable appearance.

The measurements of the nine hull blocks are generally consistent with what is expected for China’s third carrier. At roughly 297 meters, the combined length of the ship’s visible components is approaching the overall length of China’s first two aircraft carriers, the Liaoning (304.5 meters) and the Shandong (315 meters).
As construction continues, we expect the vessel to lengthen by several meters with the addition of the flight deck. The overall length of the USS Gerald R. Ford, for example, is nearly 16 meters longer than its waterline length. At the current stage, however, it is not yet possible to confirm the final length of China’s third carrier.
Future imagery should uncover these and other details. For instance, imagery may reveal the type of aircraft launch system the third carrier will employ. Various unofficial reports speculate that, unlike its predecessors, the third carrier will feature an electromagnetic catapult launch system. It is not yet possible to assess whether this is accurate, but unofficial sources suggest that China has made significant headway in developing this technology.

Chinese Aircraft Carrier Comparison
	Liaoning	Shandong	Third carrier
Design	Soviet	Chinese	Chinese
Length	304.5m	315m	–
Beam	75m	75m	–
Waterline Beam	35m	35m	40m (estimated)
Launch Type	STOBAR	STOBAR	CATOBAR
Displacement	60,000 – 66,000 tons	66,000 – 70,000 tons	80,000 – 85,000 tons (estimated)
Propulsion	Conventional	Conventional	Conventional
Shipyard of Origin	Dalian (refit)	Dalian	Jiangnan
Sources:Various
Figures for the third carrier are likely to change as more information becomes available.

In addition to providing information on the status of the third carrier, recent developments have given new insight into China’s process for constructing aircraft carriers at Jiangnan. The early stages of the ship’s construction were primarily localized within a recent expansion of Jiangnan, located in the southeastern portion of the shipyard.3 This area includes fabrication and assembly facilities, as well as a large basin that is nearly three times larger than the older basin situated nearby. These new facilities appear purpose-built for constructing large naval vessels.
We originally assessed that the construction and fitting out of the carrier was likely to be localized in this newer section of the shipyard. However, the relocation of the carrier has shown that the construction process spans much of Jiangnan. The relocation of the carrier blocks probably occurred via a utility road on large transporter vehicles. The blocks were then placed in a temporary location adjacent to the dry dock and then moved into the dry dock by a large gantry crane. Notably, the area around the dry dock (where the carrier is now situated) has been used in the construction of several large commercial craft, including very large crude carriers (VLCC), large liquified natural gas (LNG) carriers, and very large ore carriers – some of the largest seafaring vessels in the world.

Assembly of the hull is expected to take place over the next several months. Once the hull and superstructure are assembled, the dry dock will be flooded and the carrier will enter the water. The carrier is likely to then move to another location for fitting out. The vessel may be moored at the large T-shaped piers that jut out into the Yangzi River, or it could be placed in the new basin adjacent to where many of the vessel’s initial blocks were fabricated. The US Department of Defense notes that China expects to enter the third carrier into service by 2023.
This basin has seen significant improvements since ChinaPower last analyzed the shipyard. Work on dredging and reinforcing the basin’s bottom appears to be mostly finished. On the southern wall of the basin, a dock measuring 930 meters has been built, and a very large ore carrier and large floating drydock can be seen moored there in the August 18 imagery. On the northern side the basin, another dock is under construction that (when completed) will measure at least 350 meters in length. These docks will likely be used for mooring and fitting out large vessels – perhaps including the third carrier or future planned carriers.

There have also been other infrastructure improvements to the shipyard. Over the last year, the assembly facility where the carrier was initially being built has increased in size by roughly 30,000 square meters, which provides additional space for assembling large vessel components.

Previous Updates
The below timeline summarizes key developments at Jiangnan Shipyard. For more details, read our previous satellite imagery analysis by expanding the sections below. To learn more about China’s aircraft carrier program, see our features on China’s first aircraft carrier, the Liaoning, and China’s first domestically-built carrier. For more updates, follow us on Twitter or subscribe to our podcast.

Timeline of Key Developments
Time Period	Description
Mid-2018	Rumors surface that construction of China’s third aircraft carrier was underway.
November 2018	China’s official news agency Xinhua acknowledges the existence of the third carrier.
April 2019	Satellite imagery shows evidence that China is constructing the third carrier in newly built facilities at Jiangnan Shipyard.
Late 2019 – Early 2020	Progress continues, with rumors suggesting minor pauses in work resulting from Covid-19 and China’s Lunar New Year holiday.
May/June 2020	Components of the third carrier are moved from their original location to a second location at Jiangnan Shipyard.
July/August 2020	The carrier’s hull components are moved into a dry dock for the next stage of construction. Additional infrastructure improvements are made to the new assembly facility.

October 2019
In our October 2019 analysis, commercial satellite imagery revealed significant developments at Jiangnan. Imagery from September 18 showed incremental progress on the vessel’s construction and major enhancements to the surrounding infrastructure.
Show more
May 2019
Commercial satellite imagery collected on April 17, 2019 showed significant new activity since ChinaPower first analyzed Jiangnan Shipyard in late 2018. At the new assembly facility to the southeast of the existing shipyard, there was evidence of a large vessel being assembled and a floodable basin being constructed. ChinaPower concluded that the large vessel was consistent with what is expected for the People’s Liberation Army Navy’s (PLAN) third aircraft carrier.

show more
December 2018
When ChinaPower first analyzed imagery of Jiangnan Shipyard in December 2018, details regarding China’s third carrier were extremely limited. It was not until November 27, 2018 that the existence of the third carrier was officially confirmed by China’s official news agency, Xinhua. At that time, various unofficial reports speculated that the carrier was either being built within the existing commercial shipyard or at the new assembly facility under construction to the southeast of the military shipyard.

• 
• 
• 

Satellite imagery from late 2018 provided limited insight. This imagery did show that the new fabrication/assembly facility was still under construction and that the adjacent potential wet basin was not yet suitable for launching vessels, as it had not been dredged and lacked a connection to the Yangtze River. Imagery also showed some unidentified construction along the south bank of the probable wet basin.


Jiangnan Shipyard plays a vital role in the PLAN’s modernization. Learn more about the shipyard’s infrastructure and the ongoing naval activity at Jiangnan.

Tracking China's Third Aircraft Carrier | ChinaPower Project

The construction of a third aircraft carrier – the Type 002 – appears to be underway at China’s Jiangnan Shipyard. Learn more.

chinapower.csis.org

 

[OldArcher]

Tracking China’s Third Aircraft Carrier



China is making steady progress in constructing what is believed to be its third aircraft carrier.1 Commercial satellite imagery collected on August 18, 2020, shows significant developments in the construction of the vessel and additional improvements to the infrastructure at Jiangnan Shipyard.
ChinaPower has tracked military developments at Jiangnan Shipyard since late 2018, and originally identified the presumed build site of the third carrier in May 2019. Recent satellite imagery shows that construction of the carrier has moved to a secondary location at Jiangnan. While this relocation took place between May 24 and June 2, it was not until mid-August that satellite imagery provided a clear view of the vessel at its new location. For the first time since construction began, the vessel’s hull blocks are laid out in order of construction and uncovered by environmental shelters, allowing the clearest view yet of the carrier.

Click image to enlarge
There are nine hull blocks spaced out on the dry dock. The blocks stretch roughly 351 meters from bow to stern (including the spaces between them). Excluding these spaces, the vessel’s visible hull blocks total roughly 297 meters in length. The longest block, which comprises the stern, is about 49 meters in length. In terms of width, the widest hull blocks measure approximately 40 meters.
The currently visible hull blocks generally reflect the size of the vessel at its waterline. As work on the carrier progresses, additional blocks will be placed on top of the existing ones. The vessel’s superstructure, including the flight deck and island, will then be placed on top of these blocks.2 This will significantly increase the vessel’s overall footprint and lend it a more easily recognizable appearance.

The measurements of the nine hull blocks are generally consistent with what is expected for China’s third carrier. At roughly 297 meters, the combined length of the ship’s visible components is approaching the overall length of China’s first two aircraft carriers, the Liaoning (304.5 meters) and the Shandong (315 meters).
As construction continues, we expect the vessel to lengthen by several meters with the addition of the flight deck. The overall length of the USS Gerald R. Ford, for example, is nearly 16 meters longer than its waterline length. At the current stage, however, it is not yet possible to confirm the final length of China’s third carrier.
Future imagery should uncover these and other details. For instance, imagery may reveal the type of aircraft launch system the third carrier will employ. Various unofficial reports speculate that, unlike its predecessors, the third carrier will feature an electromagnetic catapult launch system. It is not yet possible to assess whether this is accurate, but unofficial sources suggest that China has made significant headway in developing this technology.

	Liaoning	Shandong	Third carrier
Chinese Aircraft Carrier Comparison
Design	Soviet	Chinese	Chinese
Length	304.5m	315m	–
Beam	75m	75m	–
Waterline Beam	35m	35m	40m (estimated)
Launch Type	STOBAR	STOBAR	CATOBAR
Displacement	60,000 – 66,000 tons	66,000 – 70,000 tons	80,000 – 85,000 tons (estimated)
Propulsion	Conventional	Conventional	Conventional
Shipyard of Origin	Dalian (refit)	Dalian	Jiangnan
Sources:Various
Figures for the third carrier are likely to change as more information becomes available.

In addition to providing information on the status of the third carrier, recent developments have given new insight into China’s process for constructing aircraft carriers at Jiangnan. The early stages of the ship’s construction were primarily localized within a recent expansion of Jiangnan, located in the southeastern portion of the shipyard.3 This area includes fabrication and assembly facilities, as well as a large basin that is nearly three times larger than the older basin situated nearby. These new facilities appear purpose-built for constructing large naval vessels.

We originally assessed that the construction and fitting out of the carrier was likely to be localized in this newer section of the shipyard. However, the relocation of the carrier has shown that the construction process spans much of Jiangnan. The relocation of the carrier blocks probably occurred via a utility road on large transporter vehicles. The blocks were then placed in a temporary location adjacent to the dry dock and then moved into the dry dock by a large gantry crane. Notably, the area around the dry dock (where the carrier is now situated) has been used in the construction of several large commercial craft, including very large crude carriers (VLCC), large liquified natural gas (LNG) carriers, and very large ore carriers – some of the largest seafaring vessels in the world.

Assembly of the hull is expected to take place over the next several months. Once the hull and superstructure are assembled, the dry dock will be flooded and the carrier will enter the water. The carrier is likely to then move to another location for fitting out. The vessel may be moored at the large T-shaped piers that jut out into the Yangzi River, or it could be placed in the new basin adjacent to where many of the vessel’s initial blocks were fabricated. The US Department of Defense notes that China expects to enter the third carrier into service by 2023.
This basin has seen significant improvements since ChinaPower last analyzed the shipyard. Work on dredging and reinforcing the basin’s bottom appears to be mostly finished. On the southern wall of the basin, a dock measuring 930 meters has been built, and a very large ore carrier and large floating drydock can be seen moored there in the August 18 imagery. On the northern side the basin, another dock is under construction that (when completed) will measure at least 350 meters in length. These docks will likely be used for mooring and fitting out large vessels – perhaps including the third carrier or future planned carriers.

There have also been other infrastructure improvements to the shipyard. Over the last year, the assembly facility where the carrier was initially being built has increased in size by roughly 30,000 square meters, which provides additional space for assembling large vessel components.

Previous Updates
The below timeline summarizes key developments at Jiangnan Shipyard. For more details, read our previous satellite imagery analysis by expanding the sections below. To learn more about China’s aircraft carrier program, see our features on China’s first aircraft carrier, the Liaoning, and China’s first domestically-built carrier. For more updates, follow us on Twitter or subscribe to our podcast.

Time Period	Description
Timeline of Key Developments
Mid-2018	Rumors surface that construction of China’s third aircraft carrier was underway.
November 2018	China’s official news agency Xinhua acknowledges the existence of the third carrier.
April 2019	Satellite imagery shows evidence that China is constructing the third carrier in newly built facilities at Jiangnan Shipyard.
Late 2019 – Early 2020	Progress continues, with rumors suggesting minor pauses in work resulting from Covid-19 and China’s Lunar New Year holiday.
May/June 2020	Components of the third carrier are moved from their original location to a second location at Jiangnan Shipyard.
July/August 2020	The carrier’s hull components are moved into a dry dock for the next stage of construction. Additional infrastructure improvements are made to the new assembly facility.

October 2019

In our October 2019 analysis, commercial satellite imagery revealed significant developments at Jiangnan. Imagery from September 18 showed incremental progress on the vessel’s construction and major enhancements to the surrounding infrastructure.
Show more
May 2019
Commercial satellite imagery collected on April 17, 2019 showed significant new activity since ChinaPower first analyzed Jiangnan Shipyard in late 2018. At the new assembly facility to the southeast of the existing shipyard, there was evidence of a large vessel being assembled and a floodable basin being constructed. ChinaPower concluded that the large vessel was consistent with what is expected for the People’s Liberation Army Navy’s (PLAN) third aircraft carrier.

show more
December 2018
When ChinaPower first analyzed imagery of Jiangnan Shipyard in December 2018, details regarding China’s third carrier were extremely limited. It was not until November 27, 2018 that the existence of the third carrier was officially confirmed by China’s official news agency, Xinhua. At that time, various unofficial reports speculated that the carrier was either being built within the existing commercial shipyard or at the new assembly facility under construction to the southeast of the military shipyard.

• 
• 
• 

Satellite imagery from late 2018 provided limited insight. This imagery did show that the new fabrication/assembly facility was still under construction and that the adjacent potential wet basin was not yet suitable for launching vessels, as it had not been dredged and lacked a connection to the Yangtze River. Imagery also showed some unidentified construction along the south bank of the probable wet basin.


Jiangnan Shipyard plays a vital role in the PLAN’s modernization. Learn more about the shipyard’s infrastructure and the ongoing naval activity at Jiangnan.

Tracking China's Third Aircraft Carrier | ChinaPower Project

The construction of a third aircraft carrier – the Type 002 – appears to be underway at China’s Jiangnan Shipyard. Learn more.

chinapower.csis.org

This doesn't look good. Quantity has its own weight, even equating to, or exceeding that of, quality. The Chinese are out producing us by significant numbers, while maintaining latest technological advances. They are not constrained by the rules, regulations, costs, resources, or a political system that is, at best, dysfunctional.

Unless the US, and its few allies get serious, we'd best be ready to die, or speak Chinese...

Great post!

Bright Blessings!

OldArcher, Witch

 

[jward]

Indo-Pacific News
@IndoPac_Info
3h

#Chinese army build up seen opposite Arunachal border, #Indian troops on high alert After a setback near Rezang La-Rechen La heights in #Ladakh, the Chinese Army is building up its troop deployments in at least 4 locations on the Arunachal Pradesh border.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1306583986110562305

View: https://twitter.com/IndoPac_Info/status/1306583986110562305?s=20

 

[Housecarl]

Hummm......

Posted for fair use.....

U.S. studied plan to use 80 nuclear weapons if attacked by North Korea

The United States reviewed and studied a plan "that could include the use of 80 nuclear weapons" in response to an attack by North Korea, according to U.S. journalist Bob Woodward in his book "Rage" published on Sept. 15.

english.kyodonews.net

U.S. studied plan to use 80 nuclear weapons if attacked by North Korea

KYODO NEWS - Sep 15, 2020 - 17:05 | All, World

Washington - The United States reviewed and studied a plan "that could include the use of 80 nuclear weapons" in response to an attack by North Korea, according to U.S. journalist Bob Woodward in his book "Rage" published Tuesday.

As tensions between the United States and North Korea heightened after Pyongyang test-fired an intercontinental ballistic missile in 2017, Washington had also been updating a plan for a leadership strike on Pyongyang, Woodward said in his book, based on interviews with U.S. President Donald Trump.

The Rodong Sinmun, North Korea's leading newspaper, publishes photos in its Nov. 29, 2017, edition of the launch of the new Hwasong-15 intercontinental ballistic missile. Pyongyang claims the missile, which it test-fired the same day, is a new type that can reach any U.S. target. (Photo courtesy of Korea Media)(Kyodo)

Trump said in an interview with Woodward on Dec. 13, 2019 that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un "was totally prepared" to go to war with the United States but that it was averted because of their first-ever U.S.-North Korea summit in June 2018, according to the book.

When Woodward asked whether Kim told Trump directly about his readiness to go to war, the president said, "Ah, yes, he did," according to the book.

"And he expected to go (to war). But we met," Woodward quoted Trump as saying.
Kim also told U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo that he was ready to go to war and Pompeo later told an associate he did not know whether it was real or a bluff, according to the book.

Woodward also wrote that Trump had delegated authority to then-U.S. Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis to use a conventional interceptor missile to shoot down any North Korean missile that might be headed for the United States.

Even when Mattis was moving in a car, he was followed by a communications team equipped with a geospatial map that would track the missile's anticipated flight path and he could issue from his location an order to shoot it down if it appeared to threaten South Korea, Japan or the United States, according to the book.

Sep 15, 2020 | KYODO NEWS

 

[Housecarl]

Hummm......

Posted for fair use.....

EDITORIAL: Non-conventional defenses needed - Taipei Times

Bringing Taiwan to the World and the World to Taiwan

www.taipeitimes.com

Fri, Sep 18, 2020 page8

• EDITORIAL: Non-conventional defenses needed
  The US is reportedly preparing to sell Taiwan seven new major weapons systems, including sophisticated aerial drones, land-based anti-ship missiles, anti-tank missiles and smart mines, Reuters said on Wednesday.
  The planned sales are part of the Pentagon’s “Fortress Taiwan” strategy to assist the nation in building up asymmetric warfare capabilities and turning it into a “porcupine” capable of deterring a Chinese attack.
  The prospect of the sale of high-quality weapons is welcome news, but the government must ensure to not inadvertently leave a “back door” open for China by neglecting non-conventional warfare, in particular cyberwarfare and espionage.
  In 2010, the 500-kilobyte computer worm Stuxnet infiltrated the systems of Iran’s Natanz uranium enrichment plant, which supplies Tehran’s nuclear weapons program. It disrupted controlling mechanisms of the facility’s centrifuges, and caused the equipment to spin out of control and self-destruct. Believed to have been developed by US and Israeli intelligence agencies, Stuxnet was the first known computer virus capable of crippling critical hardware.
  It has been a decade since the Stuxnet Pandora’s box was opened, and China has certainly been developing its own version of the worm as well as other offensive cybercapabilities.
  
  Taiwanese security officials must work on the assumption that China has the means and the intent to carry out similar attacks on Taiwan’s infrastructure, including power stations and telecommunications infrastructure, that would be priority targets during wartime.
  Drones and missiles would be useless in defending against such attacks. The government must ensure that it has adequate means to protect critical infrastructure.
  While a lot of attention is paid to hardware, the espionage threat China poses to Taiwan, which in a wartime scenario could include acts of sabotage, defections by high-ranking military officers and misinformation campaigns designed to destroy morale, is just as crucial.
  The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is an institution steeped in the history of covert operations. Right from the party’s inception within Shanghai’s foreign concessions in the early 1920s, the CCP was outlawed and forced to operate in the shadows.
  Under instructions from the Soviet-run Comintern, the CCP in 1923 entered into an alliance with the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT), enabling its members to thoroughly infiltrate the KMT.
  The communists covertly inserted their members into the Whampoa Military Academy — a tactic that paid high dividends during the Chinese Civil War. The communists by then had a network of spies burrowed deep inside the upper echelons of the KMT military, who either defected, bringing with them entire divisions, or remained undercover, feeding the CCP notice of the KMT military’s plans.
  The CCP has had decades following the KMT’s retreat to Taiwan to infiltrate Taiwan’s military and government institutions, greatly aided by shared linguistic, cultural and family ties.
  Ever since then-president Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) began pursuing closer ties with China, espionage cases involving members of the military, active duty and retired, have become all too common. Retired officers have openly fraternized with the enemy and attended Chinese military parades.
  Three former legislative aides were last month indicted on suspicion of running a spy network for China. The threat of espionage from China to the military and to government continues to be real and formidable.
  The acquisition of new military hardware is vital, but if counterespionage and cyberdefense are not given equal priority, the government runs the risk of letting China in through the back door.

 

[jward]

Vincent Lee
@Rover829
1h

Reuters: CHINA SAYS CONDUCTING MILITARY EXERCISES NEAR TAIWAN STRAIT; EXERCISES A RESPONSE TO CURRENT SITUATION IN TAIWAN STRAIT

Taiwan scrambles jets as 18 Chinese planes buzz during U.S. visit

Taiwan scrambled fighter jets on Friday as 18 Chinese aircraft buzzed the island, crossing the sensitive midline of the Taiwan Strait, in response to a senior U.S. official holding talks in Taipei.

www.reuters.com

 

[jward]

US plans big expansion of navy fleet to challenge growing Chinese sea power
Defence secretary promises future fleet including unmanned ships that will focus on Indo-Pacific region

An F/A-18F Super Hornet launches from the flight deck of the aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt. Mark Esper has promised an expansion of the US naval
fleet to combat growing Chinese power. Photograph: Petty Officer 3rd Class Nicholas/AP

Agence France-Presse
Wed 16 Sep 2020 20.28 EDT


243
The US secretary of defence, Mark Esper, has announced an ambitious plan to expand the US Navy with a range of unmanned and autonomous ships, submarines and aircraft to confront the growing maritime challenge from China.
The Pentagon chief said a sweeping review of US naval power dubbed “Future Forward” had laid out a “game-changer” plan that would expand the US sea fleet to more than 355 ships, from the current 293.

The plan, which requires adding tens of billions of dollars to the US Navy’s budget between now and 2045, is aimed at maintaining superiority over Chinese naval forces, seen as the primary threat to the United States.
“The future fleet will be more balanced in its ability to deliver lethal effects from the air, from the sea, and from under the sea,” Esper said in a speech at the Rand Corporation in California on Wednesday.

South China Sea: US unveils first sanctions linked to militarisation
Read more
The expansion will add “more and smaller” surface ships as well as more submarines, surface and subsurface vessels that are optionally manned, unmanned and autonomous, and a broad range of unmanned carrier-based aircraft.

The plan is for a fleet of ships more able to survive a high-intensity conflict, to project US power and presence, and to deliver precision strikes at very long distances, he said.

An example, Esper added, is a new guided missile frigate program, producing ships with “increased lethality, survivability, capability and capacity to conduct distributed warfare.”

He also said trials were underway on the Sea Hunter, a 132ft (40-meter) trimaran drone that can autonomously survey the seas for rival submarines for more than two months at a time.

“These efforts are the next step in realising our future fleet, one in which unmanned systems perform a variety of war-fighting functions, from delivering lethal fire and laying mines, to conducting resupply or surveilling the enemy,” Esper said.

“This will be a major shift in how we will conduct naval warfare in the years and decades to come.”

Esper reiterated that China is the top US security threat and that the Indo-Pacific region is the “priority theatre” for the US military.

“Not only is this region important because it is a hub of global trade and commerce, it is also the epicentre of great power competition with China,” he said.

A Pentagon report on the People’s Liberation Army released early this month said Beijing had the world’s largest naval fleet with 350 ships and submarines.

Still, Esper stressed, the Chinese navy lags in strength and capability.

“Even if we stopped building new ships, it would take the PRC [People’s Republic of China] years to match our capability on the high seas.”

Esper said reaching the goal of 355 ships meant the navy would have to grab a larger percentage of the Pentagon budget, but also that the US has to put more resources into expanding and modernising shipyards, where China has a clear advantage.

posted for fair use

US plans big expansion of navy fleet to challenge growing Chinese sea power

Defence secretary promises future fleet including unmanned ships that will focus on Indo-Pacific region

www.theguardian.com

 

[jward]

The Cavell Group
@TCG_CrisisRisks
45m

North Korea: Signs that they are finalising details for the launch of the new Submarine and a ballistic missile test very soon.

 

[jward]

Indo-Pacific News
@IndoPac_Info
17m

#Germany, #France, #UK Rebuke #Beijing Over #SouthChinaSea The United Kingdom, France and Germany have signed a joint note denouncing China’s claims in the South China Sea, in a sign of growing European interest in the maritime disputes there

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1306911496132112387

View: https://twitter.com/IndoPac_Info/status/1306911496132112387?s=20

 

[danielboon]

Russia announces troop build-up in Far East

Russia's Defence Minister Shoigu attends the opening ceremony of the International military-technical forum "Army-2020" in Moscow Region
More
By Alexander Marrow
MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russia is increasing its military presence in the Far East in response to rising tensions in the wider region, Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu said on Thursday.
In remarks cited on the defence ministry website, Shoigu said reinforcements were being sent because of tensions in the "eastern strategic direction", referring to an area encompassing Russia's eastern border with China and the wider Asia-Pacific.
Shoigu did not specify what the new threats were, or where the additional troops would go. He promised 500 units of new and modernised equipment for the region, as well as some improvements to the navy's Northern Fleet.

Alexander Gabuev, an analyst at Moscow's Carnegie Centre, said Russia was ensuring it has sufficient military capabilities in an area where conflicts could spill over, noting a rising risk of a naval clash between the United States and China.
"Russia cannot be left defenceless and it also needs to operate its capabilites there, in terms of air force, defence and personnel," he said.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia's concerns in the Far East centred around the actions of powers from outside the region, without specifying any countries or conflicts.
"All of these, of course, do not contribute to stability in this region," said Peskov.
Russia's Far East has also lately seen one of the longest sustained anti-government protest movements of President Vladimir Putin's two decades in power. The city of Khabarovsk, near the Chinese border, has seen weeks of demonstrations against the arrest of a local political leader.

Russia announces troop build-up in Far East

Russia is increasing its military presence in the Far East in response to rising tensions in the wider region, Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu said on Thursday. In remarks cited on the defence ministry website, Shoigu said reinforcements were being sent because of tensions in the "eastern...

news.yahoo.com

 

[northern watch]

China Buzzes Taiwan With Unusually Large Show Of Force Involving 18 Aircraft

by Tyler Durden
Zero Hedge
Friday, 09/18/2020 - 10:35

Another top American official is on a three day visit to Taiwan, and China has made its anger known by once again buzzing the island with fighter jets. But this time it was an almost unprecedented show of air power in recent times.

Just a day after US Undersecretary for Economic Affairs Keith Krach arrived in Taipei for talks on Thursday, China sent what it called a “necessary response” in the form of an usually large group of 18 jets flying near the island.

Taiwan confirmed it was 18 fighters, which defense officials said was far more than prior such encounters, in response to which Taiwan scrambled its own fighters.

The defense ministry described in an English statement: “September 18, two H-6 bombers, eight J-16 fighters, four J-10 fighters and four J-11 fighters crossed the midline of the TaiwanStrait and entered Taiwan’s southwest ADIZ.” And further: “ROCAF scrambled fighters, and deployed air defense missile system to monitor the activities.”


From a prior February encounter involving a Chinese H-6 bomber in Taiwan's airspace, via AFP.

China's defense ministry described of the latest provocative action over the island it claims as it's own:

“They are a reasonable, necessary action aimed at the current situation in the Taiwan Strait and protecting national sovereignty and territorial integrity.”

In response, Taiwan said it loaded some of its F-16 fighters with missiles to be ready for possible escalation.

US Undersecretary for Economic Affairs Krach is the most senior US official who has visited the island in decades. But Beijing is apparently attempting to lay down a 'red line' over fears Washington may be readying an even more visible top US delegation diplomatic trip.




Hu Xijin of China's state-run Global Times wrote of the scenario, “If the US secretary of state or defense secretary visits Taiwan, People’s Liberation Army fighters should fly over Taiwan island, and directly exercise in the skies above it.”

Zerohedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

 

[northern watch]

 

[Housecarl]

That infamous line uttered by the admiral in Hunt for Red October comes to mind....

 

[jward]

Indo-Pacific News
@IndoPac_Info
3m

#China Threatens #US Over #Taiwan Visit by Undersecretary of State Keith Krach - ‘Stones May Become Torpedoes’ The visit is reportedly to discuss new weapons sales. Talk is cheap, bring it on........


China Threatens U.S. Over Taiwan Visit: ‘Stones May Become Torpedoes’
The trip by Undersecretary of State Keith Krach reportedly to discuss new weapons sales comes amid heightened tensions between Taiwan and the much larger military on the mainland.


By Paul D. Shinkman, Senior Writer, National Security Sept. 17, 2020, at 10:27 a.m.
More

China Threatens U.S. Over Taiwan Visit
More
[IMG alt="U.S. Undersecretary of State Keith Krach exits a plane upon arrival at the air force base airport in Taipei. Taiwan on Thursday, Sept. 17, 2020. Krach is in Taiwan on Thursday for the second visit by a high-level American official in two months, prompting a stern warning and threat of possible retaliation from China. (Pool Photo via AP Photo)

"]https://www.usnews.com/dims4/USNEWS...e647cce7/200917newstaiwan-editorial.jpg[/IMG]
Undersecretary of State Keith Krach exits a plane upon arrival at the air force base airport on Thursday, Sept. 17, 2020, in Taipei, Taiwan.(Central News Agency Pool/AP)
China on Thursday issued thinly veiled threats against Taiwan and the U.S. ahead of what it considers a provocative visit to Taipei by an American undersecretary of state to discuss new arms sales.
[
READ:
China Provoked India in Latest Clash, U.S. Believes ]
"Once the People's Liberation Army dispatches troops to reunify the island of Taiwan, the military equipment from the U.S. will be nothing but decorations," China's Global Times wrote in an early morning article. It also made references to America's "throwing stones" into the contentious Taiwan Strait, the site of increased militarization in recent months, adding, "once they go too far, the stones may become torpedoes, increasing the uncertainties in the entire region, as well as the risks of drastic changes in the Taiwan Straits."
The news outlet is not considered a direct mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party but is aligned with its views.

China has broadly condemned the visit, which it sees as a violation of the fragile "One China" agreement that has governed international relations with Taiwan for decades and a threat to Beijing's legitimacy. The Chinese Communist Party considers Taiwan a renegade province, and only a dwindling number of small countries recognize it as a sovereign state.
However, it's played a growing part in the Trump administration's new attempts to ramp up pressure on China amid what it considers Beijing's expansionism. Pentagon officials now refer to the island as "Fortress Taiwan" amid a new push to prepare it for a potential military incursion with Chinese forces.
China has escalated military activity in the region, including sailing ships and flying warplanes near Taiwan's territory. Two military aircraft approached Taiwanese territory Wednesday in what appeared to be a warning in advance of Undersecretary of State Keith Krach's arrival.
[
READ:
U.S. Reveals Chinese Nuclear Strength ]
Krach's visit marks the highest ranking diplomatic official to visit Taiwan since the U.S. cut formal ties with the island in a compromise with China in 1979 and the second high-profile trip in recent weeks. Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar led a U.S. delegation to Taiwan in early August.
Beijing's criticism on Thursday, however, highlights a legitimate observation, that Taiwan could likely never withstand a military onslaught from the Chinese military, known as the People's Liberation Army, if only for its sheer size.

That stark reality has raised concerns in Washington about whether it's willing to provoke China with increased support for Taiwan and the extent to which it can reassure Taipei that the U.S. would be willing to engage in a military confrontation with China over the fate of the island.
[
MORE:
Global Image of the U.S. Plummets ]
The State Department confirmed Krach's visit earlier this week but said publicly it is merely to attend a memorial service for former Taiwanese President Lee Teng-hui. Taiwan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs confirmed in a statement that Krach would also discuss ways to "deepen the close economic ties between Taiwan and the United States."

https://www.usnews.com/news/world-report/articles/2020-09-17/china-threatens-us-over-taiwan-visit-stones-may-become-torpedoes?src=usn_tw

 

[jward]

The one about needing two wives?

That infamous line uttered by the admiral in Hunt for Red October comes to mind....

 

[northern watch]

 

[northern watch]

 

[Housecarl]

The one about needing two wives?

No, the one regarding things getting out of control and the odds of surviving it if it does.....

 

[Zagdid]

Russia announces troop build-up in Far East

Russia's Defence Minister Shoigu attends the opening ceremony of the International military-technical forum "Army-2020" in Moscow Region
More
By Alexander Marrow
MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russia is increasing its military presence in the Far East in response to rising tensions in the wider region, Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu said on Thursday.
In remarks cited on the defence ministry website, Shoigu said reinforcements were being sent because of tensions in the "eastern strategic direction", referring to an area encompassing Russia's eastern border with China and the wider Asia-Pacific.
Shoigu did not specify what the new threats were, or where the additional troops would go. He promised 500 units of new and modernised equipment for the region, as well as some improvements to the navy's Northern Fleet.

Alexander Gabuev, an analyst at Moscow's Carnegie Centre, said Russia was ensuring it has sufficient military capabilities in an area where conflicts could spill over, noting a rising risk of a naval clash between the United States and China.
"Russia cannot be left defenceless and it also needs to operate its capabilites there, in terms of air force, defence and personnel," he said.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia's concerns in the Far East centred around the actions of powers from outside the region, without specifying any countries or conflicts.
"All of these, of course, do not contribute to stability in this region," said Peskov.
Russia's Far East has also lately seen one of the longest sustained anti-government protest movements of President Vladimir Putin's two decades in power. The city of Khabarovsk, near the Chinese border, has seen weeks of demonstrations against the arrest of a local political leader.

Russia announces troop build-up in Far East

Russia is increasing its military presence in the Far East in response to rising tensions in the wider region, Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu said on Thursday. In remarks cited on the defence ministry website, Shoigu said reinforcements were being sent because of tensions in the "eastern...

news.yahoo.com

Two Russian air defense regiments to be rearmed with S-400 systems

Before the end of this year, the District will receive over 500 new and upgraded vehicles

tass.com

17 SEP, 09:00

MOSCOW, September 17. /TASS/. Two Eastern Military District air defense regiments will be refurbished with S-400 missile systems, while two air defense divisions will receive Buk-M1-2 systems before the end of this year, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said at the Ministry of Defense board meeting Thursday.

"Before the end of this year, the District will receive over 500 new and upgraded vehicles. This will make it possible to rearm 14 units, including rearming two missile air defense regiments with S-400 systems and rearming two missile air defense divisions with Buk-M1-2 systems," Shoigu said.

The military-political situation on the Russian Eastern strategic direction remains tense, causing the Armed Forces to reinforce its contingent at its most important parts, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced during the Ministry board meeting Thursday.

 

[Housecarl]

Posted for fair use.....
Offensive Strike in Asia: A New Era? - War on the Rocks

Offensive Strike in Asia: A New Era?

David Santoro and Brad Glosserman

September 18, 2020
Commentary

There has been both applause and anxiety in the wake of reports that Japan is considering the development of long-range missile systems. The move would be a significant shift in the country’s capabilities, and it has alarmed many Japanese who believe that the acquisition would transform their country’s military profile and could destabilize the nation and the region — and many others throughout East Asia share that apprehension.

But in the U.S. security community, the predominant response has been cheers and celebration. This should come as no surprise: Washington has long pressed Tokyo to do more for its defense and to acquire capabilities that allow it to contribute more to regional security. The news has also received strong support in the United States because it follows the Japanese government’s unexpected and disappointing decision to scrap plans to buy an American-made missile defense system, Aegis Ashore, as a result of high costs, technical issues, and public opposition — including from local chapters of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party — in cities where the system was to be deployed.

Is this reason to celebrate? Our answer is a cautious and qualified “yes.” From a U.S. perspective, the acquisition of offensive strike options by allies makes sense only if they are developed within an alliance framework and with proper guardrails, and if they are deployed in consultation and cooperation with allies and partners. No ally is proposing to develop and deploy these capabilities without liaising with the United States, but it is unclear, for now, how these capabilities would be managed in an alliance context and what the implications would be for regional security.

There is a long way to go from a proposal by the ruling Liberal Democratic Party’s defense policy committee for an “enemy bases attack capability” to a deployed missile strike system. Moreover, Japan has long contemplated the development of such a capability. The idea emerged in the 1950s and has ebbed and flowed since, ensnared in debates over legality and fit, given resource constraints and public sentiment.

In recent years, however, Tokyo has considered the option more seriously as North Korean and Chinese missile threats have grown. In this threat environment, there is thus a good chance that development and deployment will proceed. But, at a minimum, it is far too early for Washington to celebrate — recall, for instance, that in March 2017 the Liberal Democratic Party examined but did not deliver on the issue.

Washington should also be cautious because a strike capability is not an unalloyed good. It can strengthen regional defense and deterrence, but it can also detract from, or even undermine, U.S. and allied cooperation and coordination. Much, if not more, depends on how and in what context these new capabilities are acquired, deployed, and employed rather than on what they are.

If Japan does acquire missile strike capabilities, it would not do so in isolation. Recently, Washington agreed to a substantial lengthening of the range and increase in the payload of South Korean missiles, changes that would allow Seoul to strike all of North Korea and some parts of China. Just last July, Washington also agreed that Seoul would get a green light to develop solid fuel for space launch vehicles. And a few months ago Australia committed to acquiring long-range strike weapons, a decision triggered by growing concerns in Canberra about China. In short, several U.S. allies, not just Japan, are acquiring strike capabilities.

The United States stands to benefit greatly from these developments, but there are potential risks as well as costs that Washington should not overlook.

At first glance, the benefits to the United States appear obvious. Missile threats from North Korea and China are growing rapidly and Washington’s relationships with both countries are worsening sharply. In this environment, the United States would be well-served by more militarily capable allies that can help it counter these rising threats. While some may charge that such changes are insignificant relative to the threat, the key calculation is whether they would complicate an adversary’s decision-making, introduce or add uncertainty about outcomes, and force that adversary to divert resources that might be used elsewhere. This is the logic behind Andrew Marshall’s competitive strategies approach, which he developed to counter the Soviet Union during the Cold War but is applicable against China today: It requires thinking through and acting in ways that improve one’s relative position against an adversary in a long-term competition.

Most optimistically, a concerted effort by the United States and its allies on strike might encourage adversaries to negotiate: first confidence building measures, then restraints, and later — likely, much later — arms control agreements. At present, however, the primary goal is to regain the initiative and turn the tables on adversaries, which have made important advances in strategic concepts and capabilities in recent years.

Countering the Chinese missile threat is particularly urgent: Beijing is increasingly capable of preventing U.S. military access to, and ability to maneuver within and around, the “first island chain,” the first geographic barrier off the East Asian mainland that the United States has, since the 1950s, regarded as its primary line of defense in Asia. The just-published Pentagon report on China’s military and security developments, for instance, estimates that Beijing has fielded approximately 200 intermediate-range ballistic missile launchers and more than 200 DF-26 missiles. This is impressive growth: The 2019 report estimated that Beijing had deployed 80 intermediate-range ballistic missile launchers and 80–160 DF-26 missiles, and the 2018 report reckoned China had about 16–30 launchers and missiles. The DF-26, dubbed the “carrier killer” or “Guam killer” because of its range and precision, can carry nuclear or conventional warheads.

If allies develop strike systems that help regain control of the first island chain, then the United States should promote those acquisitions. Equally important, these developments align with the recent U.S. effort to encourage allied governments to take on a greater share of the defense and deterrence burden. As stated in the Department of Defense’s Indo-Pacific Strategy Report, “The United States expects our allies and partners to shoulder a fair share of the burden of responsibility to protect against common threats.” The acquisition of capabilities that allow allies and partners to assume more responsibility for regional defense should be encouraged.

In theory, then, missile acquisition and deployment by its Asian allies deserve U.S. support. These developments would not only help create a more favorable balance of power against adversaries, but also promote responsibility and burden-sharing between Washington and its allies.

On closer look, however, there are also real problems. For starters, opportunity costs: These systems are expensive, and it isn’t clear that they are necessarily the tools to prioritize to strengthen defense and deterrence when fiscal belts are tight. Their price tag and deterrence effectiveness should be weighed against those of systems that will not be purchased because of budget constraints. They could come at the expense of efforts to boost resilience against the arguably more urgent gray-zone challenges, for instance.

Development of allied missile capabilities is also taking place in the context of U.S. withdrawal from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty and Washington’s desire to deploy longer range missiles in the region. The United States has asked allies to accept U.S. missiles on their territory — their response has been ambivalent at best. U.S. deployments, however, would sidestep many of the opportunity costs associated with indigenous development, encourage greater partnership in the defense industrial sector, and — it should be noted — help reduce the trade imbalance by promoting allied purchases of U.S. defense equipment.

Deploying U.S. missiles would also address another American concern that is rarely voiced out loud: the risk of an ally entangling the United States in a conflict. Many U.S. strategists worry about an ally being emboldened by missile systems and acting in ways that could lead to an unwanted or avoidable conflict with North Korea or China. This fear of Asian allies going rogue has deep roots. Washington opted for bilateral alliances in the 1950s largely to ensure U.S. control over potentially destabilizing partners.

Of course, times have changed, and Washington now wants to empower its allies and give them much greater agency over their own national security and destiny. Some concerns linger, however, especially when it comes to allies acquiring weapons capable of producing strategic consequences.

Allies with greater military capability and freedom of maneuver risk other problems for the United States. This could heighten tensions among allies that are already high as a result of deep-rooted and still raw historical grievances. The Japanese-South Korean relationship could be shaken by missile developments by either country.

In private discussions, Japanese strategists note that South Korea’s longer-range missiles not only threaten North Korea and parts of China but put Japan in range as well. A small group of South Korean strategists is quick to note that they worry as much about Japan as they do about North Korea or China. South Korean experts also warn that since their constitution defines the Korean Peninsula as a single country, a Japanese attack on the North would technically be an attack against the South, too. While South Korean experts indicate in closed-door meetings that their government would likely accept a Japanese attack on the North in some circumstances, they also make clear that it would be deeply controversial because, legally speaking, it would mean an attack on the Korean nation and fuel the belief that Japan is implacably hostile to Korea and determined to keep it divided.

The risk, in short, is that missile capabilities could stoke tensions among U.S. allies and undermine defense cooperation and the deterrence that it creates.

Finally, these capabilities could encourage allies to choose self-help and abandon the United States by developing independent nuclear weapons. Reflecting on Australia’s recent decision to develop long-range missiles, for instance, one analyst has explained that “that possibility now moves further out of the shadows.” If an ally decided to go down that path, others could follow — a development that could unravel the U.S. alliance system and eclipse the role of the United States as Asia’s security guarantor.

Fortunately, allies interested in missile strike systems have discussed them within the framework of their alliance with the United States. The latest report of the Track-1.5 U.S.-Australia Indo-Pacific Deterrence Dialogue, for instance, notes that allies have consistently advanced their various deterrence requests within the framework of these longstanding arrangements, not outside or in opposition to them.

In addition, allies are pursuing complementary systems. Japan, for instance, wants to augment its ballistic missile defense system to deter adversaries from launching attacks on its territory. The goal is to minimize incoming missiles as much as possible before they are launched and knock out survivors in the air, while relying on the United States for more general defense. South Korea and Australia, too, are discussing — to an extent — their missile projects with the United States and making sure that they improve the overall alliance defense and deterrence posture.

Crucially, though, allies seem to favor developing and deploying “their” missiles over hosting U.S. missiles, in large part because they assess that they would have more control over these capabilities. Plainly, allies feel a need to hedge against a potentially unpredictable United States.

Washington should make sure that allies proceed with missile strike development and deployment plans within their alliance frameworks. This is vitally important to Washington because these weapons are capable of producing strategic effects and, therefore, strategic consequences. This demands that an acquisition decision be thought through in an alliance context before it is made. The United States and its ally should conduct a thorough assessment of a decision’s benefits, risks, and costs. Opportunity costs should be discussed, too, and consideration given to how allied missile systems would complement U.S. systems planned for deployment in the region. Ideally, then, the acquisition of strike systems by allies would plug a gap (i.e., it would provide an alliance solution to an alliance problem).

Moreover, arrangements should be made to ensure that these systems would be used only in certain circumstances — preferably by mutual consent or, at a minimum, with prior coordination — and there should be consultations among allies as well. This “forcing function” — obliging the United States and its allies to think systematically about ends and means, along with new decision-making processes to better balance responsibilities and capabilities — could be the most valuable part of the acquisition of strike systems.

In an increasingly contested Asian security environment, the United States will benefit from more militarily capable allies. But Washington should not ignore the potential risks and costs, and it should work hard with its allies to mitigate them. The United States and its allies, in fact, should regard this task not as a challenge, but as an opportunity to tighten their relationships further.


David Santoro is vice president and director for nuclear policy at the Pacific Forum. He is completing an edited volume on the U.S.-Chinese strategic nuclear relationship and the impact of the multipolar context (Lynne Rienner, 2021). You can follow him on Twitter at @DavidSantoro1.

Brad Glosserman is deputy director of and visiting professor at the Center for Rule Making Strategies at Tama University as well as senior advisor (nonresident) at the Pacific Forum. He is the author of Peak Japan: The End of Great Ambitions (Georgetown University Press, 2019).

 

[danielboon]

That infamous line uttered by the admiral in Hunt for Red October comes to mind....

INDEED

 

[Housecarl]

Hummmmm.........................

Posted for fair use.....

Trump can upend the status quo again by recognizing Taiwan in international organizations - Washington Examiner

The United Nations General Assembly, currently gathering virtually in New York, celebrates the 75th anniversary of the U.N. this year. The meeting comes amid an unprecedented global health emergency and accelerating environmental crises as well as rising tensions among great powers. It also...

www.washingtonexaminer.com

Opinion

Trump can upend the status quo again by recognizing Taiwan in international organizations

by Emily de La Bruyère & Nathan Picarsic | September 17, 2020 12:00 AM

The United Nations General Assembly, currently gathering virtually in New York, celebrates the 75th anniversary of the U.N. this year. The meeting comes amid an unprecedented global health emergency and accelerating environmental crises as well as rising tensions among great powers. It also comes as China carries out genocide in Xinjiang, topples a democracy in Hong Kong, and projects technology-enabled authoritarianism globally.


The number is less neat, but this fall also marks the 49th anniversary of the People’s Republic of China being admitted to the U.N. and the expulsion of the Republic of China, more commonly known as Taiwan. In that time, the PRC has gone from a desperately poor country without a system for measuring GDP to the second-largest economy in the world (by some measures, in fact, the largest); from the throes of the Cultural Revolution to success achieving its first centennial goal of creating “a moderately prosperous society”; from an insignificant force at the U.N. to the leader of 4 times as many U.N. specialized agencies as any other country.

As China has grown on the world stage, so has the brazenness of the authoritarian agenda that its influence at the U.N. serves. Taiwan used its U.N. Security Council veto only once during the 26 years it was a U.N. member. Beijing has used its veto 15 times, sometimes to punish governments that have relations with Taiwan but mostly to protect the most repressive dictatorships from accountability for their actions. In conjunction with Russia, China has vetoed resolutions targeting Myanmar, Zimbabwe, and Venezuela and issued seven vetoes on behalf of Syria.

Beijing also uses its leadership role in specialized U.N. organizations to advance its authoritarian agenda. Fang Liu, former director and deputy director of China’s General Administration of Civil Aviation, was appointed secretary-general of the U.N.’s International Civil Aviation Organization in 2015. The next year, Vietnam protested that the ICAO had amended the flight map of contested islands to reflect only China’s territorial claims. Zhao Houlin, secretary-general of the International Telecommunication Union since 2014 and a former official at China’s Ministry of Posts and Telecommunications, has been a vocal defender of Huawei, the Chinese state-backed telecommunications giant that the U.S. Department of Defense has determined to be military-affiliated. Zhao has also overseen Huawei-sponsored ITU events and facilitated ITU approval of Huawei-sponsored technical standards.

This is not to mention Beijing’s gross violations of international norms that, thanks in part to Chinese influence over the U.N., go unaddressed by the global community. China’s Uighur minority has urged the U.N. to investigate Beijing’s genocide. This call will likely go unanswered. At a meeting of the U.N. Human Rights Council in 2020, 53 countries backed China’s draconian National Security Law in Hong Kong. Only 26 opposed it.

Beijing has gamed the international system to subvert the U.N.’s founding principles and to promote authoritarian norms. The United States has failed to respond systematically and strategically. Washington either misses the nature of Beijing’s offensive entirely or attempts to fight it through precisely those institutions, such as the U.N., that China has subverted. For example, Washington expects Beijing, in accordance with international law, to obey a 2016 ruling by the international court of The Hague on China’s territorial encroachments in the South China Sea. The PRC not only ignored the judgment but also won a judicial post for one of its diplomats on the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea in 2020.


Beijing competes asymmetrically by shaping the battlefield before the battle has begun. This poses a question for Washington: Where can the U.S. adopt low-cost measures that would target Chinese sensitivities and spur Beijing to change its behavior?

In the context of international organizations, one simple opportunity would hit the mark: The U.S. should recognize Taiwan. Having done so, the U.S. should push for Taiwan’s readmission to the U.N., then for Taiwan’s membership across the full range of international organizations.

In parallel, the U.S. should take moves to protect the stability of the region. The State Department should work with regional allies to establish a NATO-like multilateral security mechanism in East Asia. Taiwan should serve as a lead pillar in a revitalized entity drawing on the framework and legacy of the Southeast Asia Treaty Organization, or SEATO. Under such a framework, the U.S. Department of Defense should work with Taiwanese counterparts to reestablish the U.S. Taiwan Defense Command. U.S. forces should be stationed on the Penghu Islands in the Taiwan Strait. The U.S. should provide more arms to Taiwan and coordinate military training and joint exercises.

Recognition of Taiwan would trigger a PRC sensitivity while taking an ideological stance aligned with democratic norms and basic human rights. It would put China on the defensive in a new competitive environment for which it is not prepared. The U.S. would be able to do all of this at low cost.

That would be a fitting mission in advance of the 50th anniversary of China’s recognition in the U.N. next year.


Emily de La Bruyère and Nathan Picarsic are senior fellows at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and co-founders of Horizon Advisory, a strategy consulting group focused on the implications of China’s competitive approach to geopolitics.

 

[Housecarl]

Hummmm........

Posted for fair use......

Asking the Right Question As China Rises

China is building its military, a recent Pentagon report to Congress argued, with the goal of becoming a

www.realcleardefense.com

Asking the Right Question As China Rises
By Bonnie Kristian
September 18, 2020

China is building its military, a recent Pentagon report to Congress argued, with the goal of becoming a "world-class" force over the next three decades.


Beijing “has not defined exactly what it means by its ambition to have a world-class military,” said Chad Sbragia, deputy assistant secretary of defense for China, in remarks timed for the report's publication. "Within the context of China's national strategy, however, China will likely aim to develop a military by mid-century that is equal to, and in many cases superior to, the United States' military or that of any other great power that the Chinese view as a threat."



This conclusion can hardly surprise anyone who has tracked China's path over the past few decades. With the population and, increasingly, the wealth of a great power, Beijing wants the military heft of a great power, too. This isn't a good thing, but at this point, it may be inevitable, as may Chinese dominance of its near abroad.


The proper question for U.S. foreign policy, then, is not, “How do we stop the rise of China?” (Answer: We can’t, at least not at anything close to an acceptable risk or cost.) The question is, “How do we live with the rise of China?” Or, more bluntly, “How do we navigate great power rivalry without falling into an avoidable conflict that in the worst-case scenario could end the world as we know it?”


These questions are far too big to fully answer here, but recent headlines offer a useful negative object lesson. Recently, the State Department declassified Reagan-era diplomatic cables concerning U.S. arms sales to Taiwan, which purchases American military equipment as part of its deterrence of mainland Chinese takeover. The publication does not mark a change in U.S. policy per se, but it does formally reveal Washington’s “Six Assurances" to Taiwan before considered a “loosely-kept secret” undoubtedly known to Beijing.


So why release them at all? To make a statement to Beijing? Or, from Beijing's view, particularly when it's become more common to have U.S. Navy warships traveling through the Taiwan Strait, to issue a threat.

And though Taiwan praised the United States’ “strong commitment” to Taiwanese security, Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen seems skeptical of the value of such saber-rattling. “The risk of conflict requires careful management by all the parties concerned,” she warned of U.S. and Chinese military activity around Taiwan, which has ramped up in recent months. “There continue to be significant concerns over the potential for accidents, given increased military activity in the region. Therefore, we believe it would be important for all parties to maintain open lines and communication to prevent misinterpretations or miscalculations,” Tsai continued, calling for “restraint,” diplomacy, and a rejection of reckless “military adventurism.”


Tsai’s caution is one Washington would do well to heed. The United States is far more secure against Chinese aggression than Taiwan will ever be. On that note, Taiwan would be better served by “defensive defense,” deterrence-focused arms purchases than those it has recently made. Tanks and F-16s are best characterized as offensive weapons, and Taiwan will never have enough offensive weaponry to defeat the People's Liberation Army militarily. The island's geography does, however, make invasion unappetizing, especially paired with defensive tools like mines and missile defense systems.


But the prudence and commitment to productive negotiation and de-escalation Tsai encouraged would behoove us as well. The Chinese military is not yet a peer competitor, yet it is the second-strongest national force in the world. Needless provocation is more dangerous by the day. We have a big stick—but so does Beijing. We must learn to walk softly.



Bonnie Kristian is a fellow at Defense Priorities, contributing editor at The Week, and columnist at Christianity Today. Her writing has also appeared at CNN, NBC, USA Today, the Los Angeles Times, and Defense One, among other outlets.

 

[Housecarl]

Hummm......

Posted for fair use.....

U.S. studied plan to use 80 nuclear weapons if attacked by North Korea

The United States reviewed and studied a plan "that could include the use of 80 nuclear weapons" in response to an attack by North Korea, according to U.S. journalist Bob Woodward in his book "Rage" published on Sept. 15.

english.kyodonews.net

U.S. studied plan to use 80 nuclear weapons if attacked by North Korea

KYODO NEWS - Sep 15, 2020 - 17:05 | All, World

Washington - The United States reviewed and studied a plan "that could include the use of 80 nuclear weapons" in response to an attack by North Korea, according to U.S. journalist Bob Woodward in his book "Rage" published Tuesday.

As tensions between the United States and North Korea heightened after Pyongyang test-fired an intercontinental ballistic missile in 2017, Washington had also been updating a plan for a leadership strike on Pyongyang, Woodward said in his book, based on interviews with U.S. President Donald Trump.

The Rodong Sinmun, North Korea's leading newspaper, publishes photos in its Nov. 29, 2017, edition of the launch of the new Hwasong-15 intercontinental ballistic missile. Pyongyang claims the missile, which it test-fired the same day, is a new type that can reach any U.S. target. (Photo courtesy of Korea Media)(Kyodo)

Trump said in an interview with Woodward on Dec. 13, 2019 that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un "was totally prepared" to go to war with the United States but that it was averted because of their first-ever U.S.-North Korea summit in June 2018, according to the book.

When Woodward asked whether Kim told Trump directly about his readiness to go to war, the president said, "Ah, yes, he did," according to the book.

"And he expected to go (to war). But we met," Woodward quoted Trump as saying.
Kim also told U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo that he was ready to go to war and Pompeo later told an associate he did not know whether it was real or a bluff, according to the book.

Woodward also wrote that Trump had delegated authority to then-U.S. Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis to use a conventional interceptor missile to shoot down any North Korean missile that might be headed for the United States.

Even when Mattis was moving in a car, he was followed by a communications team equipped with a geospatial map that would track the missile's anticipated flight path and he could issue from his location an order to shoot it down if it appeared to threaten South Korea, Japan or the United States, according to the book.

Sep 15, 2020 | KYODO NEWS

Posted for fair use.....

Yes, The United States Did Draw Up A Plan To Drop 80 Nuclear Weapons On North Korea

In 2017, a war between North Korea and the United States was “much closer than anyone would know,” President Trump claims.

www.thedrive.com

Yes, The United States Did Draw Up A Plan To Drop 80 Nuclear Weapons On North Korea
In 2017, a war between North Korea and the United States was much “much closer than anyone would know,” President Trump claims.

By Thomas Newdick
September 18, 2020

• The War Zone

urrent nuclear war plans are among any nuclear-armed military’s most closely guarded secrets. Details of one such attack plan recently became available, however, revealing that the United States envisaged using 80 nuclear weapons in case of war with North Korea. The way this particular detail emerged is also pretty unusual — the associated passage appeared in U.S. journalist Bob Woodward’s book Rage, detailing President Trump’s administration, which was published this week.


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In fact, the particular quote from the book was not entirely clear:

"The Strategic Command in Omaha had carefully reviewed and studied OPLAN 5027 for regime change in North Korea — the U.S. response to an attack that could include the use of 80 nuclear weapons."

This can be read two ways: a potential attack from the North could involve the use of 80 nuclear weapons, or the same number of weapons can be envisaged as a possible U.S. response to a first strike ordered by Pyongyang.

U.S. NAVY/MASS COMMUNICATION SPECIALIST 1ST CLASS RONALD GUTRIDGE
An unarmed Trident II D5 missile launches from the Ohio-class ballistic missile submarine USS Nebraska (SSBN 739) off the coast of California.

In an interview with NPR, Woodward cleared up any confusion, noting that the 80 nuclear weapons were part of a U.S. attack plan — OPLAN 5027, which would include ‘decapitating’ the North Korean regime of dictator Kim Jong-un.

“I think given North Korea is a rogue nation, they have, as I report, probably a couple of dozen nuclear weapons well-hidden and concealed,” Woodward explained to NPR. The veteran journalist confirmed that the then U.S. Secretary of Defense James Mattis was worried he might have to issue orders for a nuclear strike on North Korea. “The potential we’d have to shoot to prevent a second launch was real,” Mattis admitted.

“You’re going to incinerate a couple million people,” Mattis told himself, according to Woodward. “No person has the right to kill a million people as far as I’m concerned, yet that’s what I have to confront.”

DoD
Secretary Mattis departs an E-4B airborne command post.

According to Woodward, Trump was worried that shooting down a North Korean ballistic missile (nuclear-armed or otherwise) on a trajectory headed toward the United States could prompt a full-scale nuclear attack from the “Hermit Kingdom.” Woodward writes that Trump had delegated authority to Jim Mattis to launch a conventionally armed interceptor missile to shoot down any North Korean missile that might be headed for the United States.

Woodward said that Mattis confided in him that he was not worried that Trump might launch a preemptive strike against North Korea. Instead, the source of his angst was the North Korean leader in Pyongyang.

In fact, such was Mattis’s level of concern that he would sleep in his gym clothes, Woodward claims. “There was a light in his bathroom… if he was in the shower and they detected a North Korean launch.”

There were alarm bells set up in Mattis’s bedroom and kitchen too, and on more than one occasion during the summer of 2017 they sounded the alert, and he entered the communications room in his Washington DC residency. Woodward explains that Mattis’s car was also constantly followed by an SUV with a team equipped to plot the flight path of any incoming missile, whether it was threatening Japan, South Korea, or the United States. If Mattis considered the missile hostile, he had a mobile communications link to issue launch orders to shoot it down.

North Korean State Media
Kim inspects a Hwasong-15 ICBM.

The book describes one particular missile alarm in particular detail. This occurred at 5:57 a.m. on August 29, 2017, when “exquisite” intelligence indicated that North Korea was about to launch another missile. Mattis was at home and entered the communications room, where he was told that U.S. interceptor missiles were ready to fire. The defense secretary monitored the progress of the North Korean missile on a geospatial map, watching it pass over Japan then come down in the sea. Woodward describes Mattis’s job at this time as “a nonstop crucible, personal and hellish. There were no holidays or weekends off, no dead time.”

Clearly, the status of a nuclear-armed North Korea provided much pause for thought within the U.S. administration during Mattis’ tenure as Secretary of Defense. That a strike plan against North Korea involving 80 nuclear weapons was discussed between the president and his defense secretary isn't all that hard to imagine.

Back in September 2017, of course, North Korea conducted its sixth (and most recent) nuclear test, claiming the device in question was a thermonuclear bomb. The same year also saw considerable activity by North Korea’s strategic missile forces, including the first test of the Hwasong-14 and Hwasong-15 intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), and several tests in which missiles passed over Japan.

Amid tensions between Washington and Pyongyang in 2017, The War Zone looked in detail at the U.S. Strategic Command’s (STRATCOM) OPLAN 8010 — outlining the nuclear option for strikes against various unnamed states. One of the passages from the report we highlighted at the time is of particular interest (the authors’ own emphasis is included):

While dynamic security concerns in space and cyberspace evolve, traditional threats to national security continue to be presented by sovereign states, both the peer and near-peer and those regional adversary states with emerging WMD [weapons of mass destruction] capabilities.

The War Zone obtained a redacted version of the report, which does not mention North Korea by name, but which includes a section on “countries that present global threats” — more than likely coded language for North Korea.

STRATCOM
An extract from the U.S. Strategic Command’s Operations Plan 8010.

One of the options under consideration in Washington was OPLAN 5015, a nuclear strike to take out the North Korean leadership, which Woodward also refers to, drawing again from his extensive interviews with Trump. Specifically, Woodward mentions “updating” such a plan — after all, Kim Jong-un and his predecessors will have always been priority targets in the case of an all-out war.

North Korean State Media
Kim inspects what was supposedly a thermonuclear weapon before the country's sixth nuclear test.

In one of his interviews, Trump tells Woodward he considered that Korean Kim Jong-un “was totally prepared” to go to war with the United States, and that full-blown conflict between the two nations was “much closer than anyone would know.” The U.S. president told Woodward that Kim Jong Un’s previously warlike outlook had been confirmed to him in his meeting with the North Korean leader. Trump considered that the situation was eventually diffused by the first-ever U.S.-North Korea summit held in Singapore in June 2018.

While tensions between North Korea and the United States have receded somewhat since 2017, the nuclear issue remains totally unresolved, with talks stalled since the second U.S.-North Korea summit in Vietnam in early 2019.

There are also signs that Pyongyang is further refining its nuclear weapons delivery systems, with claims from officials in South Korea that the North may be preparing to test a fully functional submarine-launched ballistic missile in around a year.

By increasing the portion of its nuclear arsenal carried aboard submarines, North Korea could make the detection and destruction of these weapons harder. The ability of North Korea to then launch a second strike, even if the chances of success were remote, would, in turn, require another update to the U.S. nuclear attack plans — and might involve more than the 80 nuclear weapons that Woodward wrote about.

Contact the author: thomas@thedrive.com
91 Comments

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[China Connection]

The problem these days is in having too many big enemies like China and Russia. I would never bet on the U.S. wining. The next war will be missiles and be over within a day when they decide to use what they have.


Drop 80 nukes on North Korea! Do you think China will wait for that? It won't want fallout over China.

 

[jward]

DEFCONWarningSystem
@DEFCONWSALERTS
23m

China no longer recognizes median line in the Taiwan Strait.

 

[danielboon]

War build up continues in the south China Sea

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1307849468616859652

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/EndGameWW3/status/1307849468616859652

 

[danielboon]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1307847503853817857

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/JBWiese75/status/1307847503853817857

 

[danielboon]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1307849870464647168

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/JBWiese75/status/1307849870464647168

 

[danielboon]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1307851229662531586

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/EndGameWW3/status/1307851229662531586

 

[danielboon]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1307851627148259328

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/EndGameWW3/status/1307851627148259328

 

[danielboon]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1307833396261842946

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/BritComMil/status/1307833396261842946