ECON The Job Cuts That Are Coming Are Going to Be Super Brutal

Cardinal

Chickministrator
_______________

A shockingly large wave of layoffs has already begun, and we are being warned that much larger layoffs are coming in the months ahead. That is very chilling to hear, because job cut announcements are already coming in so rapidly that I couldn’t possibly share them all with you. I wrote about some of the major layoffs that are happening just a few days ago, and now I have more to share. We haven’t seen anything like this since 2008, and many of you still have very painful memories of what the “Great Recession” was like. Unfortunately, America is now plunging into another severe economic downturn, and that means that there will be a tremendous amount of pain in the weeks and months to come.

Earlier today, I was stunned to learn that a new survey has found that 20 percent of business economists “expect employment at their company to fall in the coming months”


A growing number of business economists expect companies to reduce their headcounts for the first time since the pandemic, a sign the job market is beginning to cool amid an increasingly dark economic outlook.
That’s according to a new survey published on Monday by the National Association for Business Economics, which shows that about 20% of the group’s members expect employment at their company to fall in the coming months.
Is this survey representative of the U.S. economy as a whole?

If it is, that is truly chilling.

Can you imagine what our economy would look like if about one-fifth of all U.S. companies started suddenly letting workers go all at once?

Hopefully that will not happen.


But it appears that the coming layoffs in the banking industry could be historic.

In fact, one expert is publicly warning that “the job cuts that are coming are going to be super brutal”

Banks are set to undertake the largest wave of job cuts in 15 years amid declining revenues.
Industry watchers told the Financial Times (FT) the layoffs — expected to be in the tens of thousands — reverse a trend of widespread hiring and banks’ reticence to let go of workers during the pandemic.
“The job cuts that are coming are going to be super brutal,” Lee Thacker, owner of financial services headhunting firm Silvermine Partners, told the FT in a Saturday (Jan. 21) report.
He didn’t just say that the job losses will be “brutal”.

He said that they will be “super brutal”.




Of course many would argue that the outlook for tech industry workers is even worse.

At this point, “tens of thousands of employees” have already been laid off within just “the past few months”

Big tech giants have laid off tens of thousands of employees over the past few months as recession fears, persistent inflation, and rising interest rates continue to weigh on earnings results. The likes of Google, Amazon, and Meta have let go of nearly 40,000 employees combined.
But Gene Munster, managing partner at the tech-focused investment and venture capital firm Deepwater Asset Management (formerly Loup Ventures), believes the worst is yet to come.
“There’s still another 15% to 20% of headcount reductions for these big tech companies in the next three to six months,” he told CNBC on Monday.
The startling layoffs that we just witnessed at Google made headlines all over the planet, because most of the experts didn’t see them coming.

Sadly, many of those that were laid off didn’t see them coming either.

Can you imagine giving 20 years of your life to Google and then getting suddenly laid off one day via email?

A software engineer described the way he found out Google was laying him off as a “slap in the face.”
Jeremy Joslin, whose LinkedIn profile says he had worked at the tech giant since 2003, said Friday the company gave him the news over email.
“It’s hard for me to believe that after 20 years at Google I unexpectedly find out about my last day via an email,” he tweeted. “What a slap in the face. I wish I could have said goodbye to everyone face to face.”
That is cold.

But it appears that this is becoming something of a trend.

In fact, Vox just laid off 7 percent of its workforce, and those that lost their jobs were “notified through email”

Vox Media, the publisher of news websites such as Vox and The Verge, in addition to New York magazine, will lay off 7% of its workforce, chief executive Jim Bankoff said in a Friday morning memo to staff.
Bankoff said the layoffs, which will result in about 130 people losing their roles, impacted multiple teams, including editorial. Those who had their jobs eliminated were notified through email, followed by a later meeting with a human resources officer who would discuss severance packages with them.
If you are in human resources and you are reading this, please don’t ever do something so cruel at your own company.

It may be much easier to fire people by email, but it is simply the wrong thing to do.

On Monday we also learned that Spotify will be conducting mass layoffs

Spotify has joined a slew of other tech giants in laying off employees.
Monday’s announcement shared by CEO Daniel Ek said that impacted employees, about 6% across the company, will be notified Monday morning.
I suppose that they have to pay Joe Rogan somehow.

But it always pains me when I hear of people losing good paying employment. Sadly, for many firms one wave of layoffs will not be enough.

As we plunge into a very harsh economic environment, some companies will have to get out the axe again and again.

For example, just look at what the Winklevoss twins are doing. They just conducted their third round of layoffs within the last eight months…

Cryptocurrency exchange Gemini is slashing 10 percent of its staff – the third round of layoffs within just eight months.
The announcement was made in an internal message on Monday by founders and identical twins Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, 41, The Information reported.
The company also cut staff in July, according to TechCrunch, just a month after it laid off 10 percent in June.
Instead of subjecting us to horrifying renditions of some of our most beloved classic songs, perhaps they should have spent more time trying to figure out how to keep their company afloat.


In any event, it turns out that the doe-eyed optimists were dead wrong and the economic realists were quite correct.

The massive economic meltdown that we have been relentlessly warned about is happening.

Hordes of American workers have already been laid off, and countless more will be laid off as 2023 rolls along.

So you may want to try to butter up your boss while you still can, because otherwise you may be one of the people that gets “laid off by email” in the months ahead.
 

Kathy in FL

TB Fanatic
Yep, expect more layoffs pronto. And it is also telling that even though residential real estate has slowed down, rental real estate has not. All those people who moved into new homes and out of a rental, may very well be switching directions within the next two or three years assuming they can afford to. Rents aren't coming down.
 

raven

TB Fanatic
Way back in the dot com crash, I knew a guy Subramanian. Indian guy; IT technician; AIX guru; smart;
Salary was about $50K/year.
Company stock millionaire one day, broke and owed the IRS couple hundred thousand in unrealized gains the next.
Yea, he was pretty bitter but he survived.
Got a job at Home Depot.
 

WalknTrot

Veteran Member
It's the natural, predictable "next" step in a recession/depression.
Anybody taken by surprise has failed to learn their history and/or heed the warnings.

That's why all the young folks lately bitching about being abused/taken advantage/not appreciated enough by their employer are laughable to those who've seen such times. A steady paycheck during a severe economic downturn is worth it's weight, and you do damned near anything to keep it coming.
 

20Gauge

TB Fanatic
60 million employed in this nation.....
5% laid off based upon the article ( rounded down a bit )
20% of all employment is by large companies.

20% of 60 million is 12 million jobs overall

5% of that 12 million getting laid off is 600,000 jobs lost.....

Since we know jobs are a multiplier of 2x ( at the minimum for support groups, suppliers, etc )

That would mean 1.2 million at the minimum from JUST the corp end.....

That would not account for the 80% of the job market filled by small companies....

Brutal may not be a strong enough word in this case.....
 

Griz3752

Retired, practising Curmudgeon
There's been some long standing issues w/ the American economy but, the bulk of the issues keeping the American public on the brink of another recession started with BHO and his bum boy JB has perpetuated and added to those.

My wife got a solicitation call yesterday from some "Back the Blue" campaign. I commented at least it wasn't some DNC Hack looking for $$$$ for some DEM-SJW crap.

She said if that happened she'd just order a new phone because she was sure the current one wouldn't survive.
 

Griz3752

Retired, practising Curmudgeon
60 million employed in this nation.....
5% laid off based upon the article ( rounded down a bit )
20% of all employment is by large companies.

20% of 60 million is 12 million jobs overall

5% of that 12 million getting laid off is 600,000 jobs lost.....

Since we know jobs are a multiplier of 2x ( at the minimum for support groups, suppliers, etc )

That would mean 1.2 million at the minimum from JUST the corp end.....

That would not account for the 80% of the job market filled by small companies....

Brutal may not be a strong enough word in this case.....
^^^^^
i think those numbers, scary as they are, might be conservative estimates.
 

West

Senior
It's really easy to go broke!

Two ex wives in California...don't as how.

And oh, there's a reason the IRS (USTresury) will give you interest on your quarterly contributions. Because they frigging want there blood monies before you even make it! If you overpay. That most do.
 

Blacknarwhal

Let's Go Brandon!
Yep, expect more layoffs pronto. And it is also telling that even though residential real estate has slowed down, rental real estate has not. All those people who moved into new homes and out of a rental, may very well be switching directions within the next two or three years assuming they can afford to. Rents aren't coming down.

If the rental houses stand empty long enough, rents will come down.
 

Blacknarwhal

Let's Go Brandon!
60 million employed in this nation.....
5% laid off based upon the article ( rounded down a bit )
20% of all employment is by large companies.

20% of 60 million is 12 million jobs overall

5% of that 12 million getting laid off is 600,000 jobs lost.....

Since we know jobs are a multiplier of 2x ( at the minimum for support groups, suppliers, etc )

That would mean 1.2 million at the minimum from JUST the corp end.....

That would not account for the 80% of the job market filled by small companies....

Brutal may not be a strong enough word in this case.....

Does that include all the jobs that were never filled in the first place? All those companies that had their Help Wanted signs out to the point they turned yellow in the window?
 

Countrymouse

Country exile in the city
I keep hearing and seeing where they are laying off more and more people. If you have a job you better keep it, things are starting to look rough.
Why so many TECH jobs, I wonder? I thought those were pretty bullet-proof

As I've said, my hubby's job (lost last October----again) is pretty much a "canary in the coal mine" for coming recession, since the first thing companies start doing when under stress is putting off new construction or renovation projects.

We expect that in architectural engineering / drafting--but this time he's not even getting job offers in mechanical / electrical, which are usually the "fall-back" position for him when architectural goes, since companies still have to maintain their product production, which involves either mechanical drafting or electrical, or both.

Unless---companies are having trouble selling product, as well...........

(which obviously, they are)

which may explain why the tech companies....

because if people (not just companies) are not buying "product"---then there's nobody for the selling-giants to sell TO--

and no need for companies to buy their high-priced platforms....
 

20Gauge

TB Fanatic
Does that include all the jobs that were never filled in the first place? All those companies that had their Help Wanted signs out to the point they turned yellow in the window?
Nope. It was based upon employed. I rounded down on overall employed. So this is really a very conservative number.
 

Melodi

Disaster Cat
Rents should come down if properties stay empty long enough, but that depends on who owns them and why they are vacant. Ireland is looking at laws or regulations that severely tax corporate-owned apartments and rental homes that sit empty for more than a year without a good reason. Rents going up even further in Dublin isn't a good reason; emergency repairs due to faulty building techniques during the Celtic Tiger probably are.

This is being discussed because several large multinational companies put up "luxury" apartment complexes in Dublin and a couple of other larger cities here. They were so expensive that no one wanted to rent them. People on that income level could still buy a home if they wanted one, so during the worst housing crises since the Potato Famine of the 1840s, these places were sitting empty because the large multinational corporations that owned them didn't care. They were "investments" that could be juggled for tax reasons and eventually either sold off or torn down if things didn't improve.

I suspect in the US. Things may be similar in SOME markets; in others, especially where there are still a lot of smaller or private landlords, the rents will go down with incomes as they should. But other areas may have similar problems to Ireland, primarily where a lot of the rental market is owned by giant companies.

If there are massive defaults there as well, then it could turn out like Denver in the 1980s just before I left in 1988-1989 - with the Federal government being the most significant land and the homeowner in the County. And with desperate banks and civil servants selling off vacant and often trashed homes for next to nothing (I had friends that bought these)just to get them off the government's hands or the bank's balance sheets. This time I suspect it is more likely that big corporations will buy them and then rent them out, but only if they get them dirt cheap.
 

20Gauge

TB Fanatic
Rents should come down if properties stay empty long enough, but that depends on who owns them and why they are vacant. Ireland is looking at laws or regulations that severely tax corporate-owned apartments and rental homes that sit empty for more than a year without a good reason. Rents going up even further in Dublin isn't a good reason; emergency repairs due to faulty building techniques during the Celtic Tiger probably are.

This is being discussed because several large multinational companies put up "luxury" apartment complexes in Dublin and a couple of other larger cities here. They were so expensive that no one wanted to rent them. People on that income level could still buy a home if they wanted one, so during the worst housing crises since the Potato Famine of the 1840s, these places were sitting empty because the large multinational corporations that owned them didn't care. They were "investments" that could be juggled for tax reasons and eventually either sold off or torn down if things didn't improve.

I suspect in the US. Things may be similar in SOME markets; in others, especially where there are still a lot of smaller or private landlords, the rents will go down with incomes as they should. But other areas may have similar problems to Ireland, primarily where a lot of the rental market is owned by giant companies.

If there are massive defaults there as well, then it could turn out like Denver in the 1980s just before I left in 1988-1989 - with the Federal government being the most significant land and the homeowner in the County. And with desperate banks and civil servants selling off vacant and often trashed homes for next to nothing (I had friends that bought these)just to get them off the government's hands or the bank's balance sheets. This time I suspect it is more likely that big corporations will buy them and then rent them out, but only if they get them dirt cheap.
Normally I would agree, but I am seeing taxes / insurance / repair costs rising rapidly to meet the new rent levels. I don't see those going down ever.

Maybe KathyFL has better input on this one.
 

Kathy in FL

TB Fanatic
If the rental houses stand empty long enough, rents will come down.

I have seen it in multiple waves before. Rents will stabilize but won’t come down. Where you might get cut a break is in security deposit or only first and sec deposit rather than first, last,and security deposit. Or maybe some other incentive like a $100 grocery card or new tv. Like I said, after 26 years in the business I have seen multiple waves. After 2008 rents actually went up due to lack of inventory. Banks aren’t landlords. Until they can get the foreclosures off their books and ease rental scarcity, rents won’t come down appreciably if at all.

And rents won’t come down at all if municipalities don’t ease up on property taxes and I have never see prop taxes go down on a rental because municipalities have to cover the spread when owner occupied don’t pay theirs.
 

Jeff B.

Don’t let the Piss Ants get you down…
If the rental houses stand empty long enough, rents will come down.
In certain areas, I'm sure that the idea at least will occur to the slimy Progs in charge to place "persons in need" into those available properties to meet their "basic needs" which of course in Blue Amerika are seen as "rights".

I have to stop. I almost got sick just typing that. :kk1:
 

Samuel Adams

Veteran Member
Cut my job.


Please.


I’m a backwoods homesteader who hauls manure from the local sale barn for a little extra resource acquisition.


Anybody wanna trade ?


:popcorn3:
 

Kathy in FL

TB Fanatic
They are coming down A LOT (10-15%) in our area and some 600+ houses being built within a few miles of our place. As those hit the market rents will come down more.

Are those rentals or owner occupied?

Every area will be different so know your market. Lots of owner occupiers could be empty but that could mean rents will go up due to scarcity of available rentals.

Depending on area a lot of owner occupides and 2nd home are being converted to seasonal and vacay rentals where all they want is enough to cover expenses for a while.
 

Jeff Allen

Producer
Rents don't necessarily come down if they sit empty. For landlords that are heavily leveraged they will go into foreclosure...then they sit for a looooong time.
I can only see three main reasons why rentals will sit emptly.
1. The first and most likely is that there just aren't any qualified applicants.....in my universe that means nobody earns enough money to afford the place, or they just don't meet the other criteria, like, say for example they were once evicted (I'll never ever rent to anyone who has ever been evicted)
2. The economy collapses and everyone is living with their relatives/friends because they are not working. Hopefully this is something that would turn around within a decade, but who knows?
3. Our population collapses due to "x"?? and there is lots of excess housing inventory
And none of those reasons will force me to rent to a problem tenant....we own all our properties outright and can carry them for a very long time empty if necessary. I've learned that its significantly more expensive to put in a bad tenant than it is to carry the property empty, as I'm sure all long term landlords have.

As a prepper forum, I think most of us understand the dollar has been debased at lightning speed this last decade...we all know "its" coming, when is the only unknown, and I guess "how bad" as well....is it mass starvation or just mass misery? It will be at least one and possibly both.

Please move out of the blue hives if you are in one as soon as you can. They cannot be saved and hard tyranny combined with hardship is the future there.

J
 
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