Solar The Grand Solar Minimum (ORIGINAL)

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von Koehler

Has No Life - Lives on TB
DaSskn2VwAEBT8r.jpg
 

Publius

TB Fanatic
Old Man Winter will not let go, I'm seeing forecast reports showing the same. We got a break from the cold and got the garden tilled up and now We're back to cold temps in the low 30s to upper 20s every night.
 

Countrymouse

Country exile in the city
We're back into the 30's tonight.


I had just hung out my hanging baskets (geraniums, begonias, spider plants) because the weathermen told us LAST weekend's cold would be the last...now here we go again....


at least we have no snow...........(yet)............
 

von Koehler

Has No Life - Lives on TB
https://www.mercurynews.com/2018/04...ty-thinks-so-after-losing-40-percent-of-crop/

almonds.jpg


Almond disaster? One Northern California county thinks so after losing 40 percent of crop

By RED BLUFF DAILY NEWS |UPDATED: April 18, 2018 at 10:55 am
By Jake Hutchison | Red Bluff Daily News

Red Bluff – The Tehama County Department of Agriculture requested a declaration of disaster Monday from the Governor’s Office of Emergency Services after the almond crop damage report showed a 40 percent loss.

The request was sent by Agricultural Commissioner Rick Gurrola.

According to the official request form, the damage has been estimated at $19,536,084.

The loss percentage is based on the average of the past five years.

In the form, crop loss is broken up by percentage of farms versus percentage of damage.

For example, 30 percent of the 62 farms in Tehama County faced 30-39 percent crop loss with another 30 percent facing 40-49 percent crop loss.

Ten percent of farms caught the worst of it, facing up to 79 percent loss.


Most of the damage came in February during a string of 11 particularly cold days, four of which saw lows between 26 and 28 degrees.

A county can request a declaration of disaster when crop damage exceeds 30 percent of the previous five-year average.

While the request focuses on almonds, the prune harvest may also be a concern, though data is still needed.

“There’s going to be a reduction on the crop but there’s still no firm answer on whether or not it is weather related,” Gurrola said.

The process, Gurrola said, consists of the California Branch of the US Department of Agriculture reviewing the county’s numbers. If it finds the same amount of loss, then the request can be sent to the federal office in Washington D.C. and local farms may qualify for aid, such as low interest loans.

Information is still being processed regarding prunes as well as winter range grassland for grazing.
 

von Koehler

Has No Life - Lives on TB
27072655_1790734534311611_4007222460738416870_n.jpg


Reconstructed model of temperature anomalies during the Dalton minimum. Medoli might take some small comfort in that Ireland, especially on the west coastal areas, were least affected in Europa.
 
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TxGal

Day by day
We're back into the 30's tonight.


I had just hung out my hanging baskets (geraniums, begonias, spider plants) because the weathermen told us LAST weekend's cold would be the last...now here we go again....


at least we have no snow...........(yet)............

Our temps are a bit warmer at night now than that (so far), but every night I'm still bringing in our hanging baskets and tomato plants (I still haven't put them in the ground). This week we've had consistently strong winds with mph gusts in the mid 30s. I still haven't planted our potatoes yet, we're doing the tub method this year since our ground has been so soggy. Tubs are ready and waiting, but the weather is really unpredictable this spring.

We have another cold front coming in tomorrow, supposed to be mostly rain and wind, with a chance of hail. Again.
 

von Koehler

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Is this map showing warmer weather up in the North Atlantic, in the 'conveyor belt' area?

Yes. Not all areas of the planet cool down at an uniform rate. Unfortunately, the current rate of cooling is greater than it was during this chart year range.

von Koehler
 

TxGal

Day by day
Yes. Not all areas of the planet cool down at an uniform rate. Unfortunately, the current rate of cooling is greater than it was during this chart year range.

von Koehler

I seem to recall that the warming of the thermohaline 'conveyor belt' ultimately contributes to the reversal (and helps bring down more of that colder water/air).

Thank for bringing all this information onto the thread....more and more components and evidence seems to be coming together and building toward the minimum. Also seems to be happening more quickly.
 

Martinhouse

Deceased
A big thank you from me too for all the good information you're posting here.

My container garden "happened" this week and I hope to start planting everything by Monday. Just got a little more finishing to do this afternoon and tomorrow, then all that dirt can get rained on tomorrow night and Sunday.

If I post any more about it, it will be in the garden forum. I didn't think I'd be able to get it done, and now suddenly it is and I'm really excited about it!
 

von Koehler

Has No Life - Lives on TB
http://www.wnem.com/story/38005695/record-breaking-cold-so-far-for-april-2018

Record breaking cold so far for April 2018
Updated: Apr 20, 2018 3:38 PM CDT
By John Gross, Weather SpecialistCONNECT


MID-MICHIGAN (WNEM) -
Ever since the official start of spring began back in late March, you may have noticed conditions outside don’t look or feel very spring like.

As a matter of fact, it has been the coldest April we’ve experienced in more than 60 years for both Saginaw and Flint.

As of Thursday, the average temperature for April 2018 in Saginaw is 34.1 degrees and for Flint is 34.7 degrees. That beats the records for the coldest April in Saginaw of 37.9 degrees set back in 1950 and Flint of 39.4 degrees also set back in 1950.

This makes April 2018 as of Thursday, April 19, the coldest April in both Saginaw and Flint since records started to be recorded with Saginaw going back to 1912 and for Flint records going back to 1921.

However, with 11 days left in April, the weather pattern would have to stay consistent to officially make April 2018 the coldest since 1912 in Saginaw and 1921 in Flint.
 

TorahTips

Membership Revoked
I seem to recall that the warming of the thermohaline 'conveyor belt' ultimately contributes to the reversal (and helps bring down more of that colder water/air).

Thank for bringing all this information onto the thread....more and more components and evidence seems to be coming together and building toward the minimum. Also seems to be happening more quickly.

From what I understand, when the conveyor belt gets altered, it modifies the movement of storm systems across the country. I think that is happening over the last month at least. If you look at the whole US map right now (Saturday morning) you will see that there is a storm system in the center of the country that is just sitting there. The same thing happened last weekend with the snowstorm. This causes serious disruption of our ability to plant crops. If it continues, we will see what happens during the summer.
 

von Koehler

Has No Life - Lives on TB
April on track to be the coldest in 143 years
Sarah Rahal, The Detroit News Published 4:53 p.m. ET April 19, 2018


No, you're not crazy. It has been the coldest April in more than 140 years.

A year ago today, on April 19, 2017, it was 78 degrees and sunny, while Thursday's expected high is 48 degrees, said National Weather Service meteorologist Trent Frey.

As of Thursday, the average temperature for April is 38.3 degrees, slightly warmer than April 1874, the coldest on record at 37.6 degrees.

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"The average high (in April) for Detroit last year was 60 degrees, believe it or not," Frey said. "If April ended tomorrow, it would be the second-coldest on record."

He said if the weather stays consistent, April will be on track to be the coldest since 1874, but it looks like it should warm up this weekend. Weekend highs are expected to be in the mid- to upper 50s.

The month's warmest day so far was April 12, with a high of 76 degrees, and the coldest was April 8, when it got down to 21 degrees.

"We're going through a pattern change in Metro Detroit right now and things should start to moderate back to normal," Frey said.

So far, 2.4 inches of snow has fallen in April in what feels like a never-ending winter, Frey said. Metro Detroit is not expected to get any more snow in the foreseeable future; however, "it can't be ruled out."

DTE Energy has restored power to 99 percent of the 390,000 customers impacted by Sunday’s ice storm. They expect to restore the remaining 5,000 customers by the end of Thursday, officials said.

The weather has also affected some local businesses that usually thrive in April, like Detroit Hives, an organization that transforms vacant Detroit lots into urban bee farms.

"This weather has been detrimental to our pollinators and has caused one of our hives to die because of the frigid temperatures," said Tim Taule, director and co-founder of Detroit Hives.

Taule said they usually wait until the third week of April to start their season but the bees are still holding on from winter. They are planting more hives and have plans to replace the one that did decay in the extended winter.
 

von Koehler

Has No Life - Lives on TB
More spring snow in Chicago, and forecasters call April's start among coldest in 130 years

Chicago Tribune

Chicago area residents may wake up to snow on the ground Thursday, the latest reminder that winter weather’s grip is delaying so many spring rites of passage, from Major League Baseball games to bridge-lifting season on the Chicago River downtown – the parade of boats heading for slips offering the surest sign of warm weather ahead.

And if those early morning walks to the bus or train stop weren’t convincing enough, forecasters say this is the second-coldest start to April across Chicago in 130 years.

Some 1-2 inches of snow were expected to fall by early Thursday, adding to the 2.7 inches already recorded at O’Hare International Airport in April, said Charles Mott, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service in Romeoville. That would mark the fifth time this month we’ve seen snowfall, according to forecasters.

“It is rare. … Getting anything an inch-plus is definitely rare this time of year,” Mott said.

Though next week is poised to bring dry weather and seasonal temperatures of about 50 degrees, it’s too early to predict whether Chicago has beaten winter yet.

The latest snow in Chicago happened on May 11, 1966, and the city had its latest snowfall of more than 1 inch on May 1, 1940, according to the weather service.

Snowy April weather
Snow in the Chicago area on Monday, April 16, 2018. (Jose M. Osoria/Chicago Tribune)
Predictions of more cold and snow Wednesday prompted the Cubs to postpone a home game against St. Louis until 1:20 p.m. Thursday. That was the 25th postponement in the first three weeks of the major league season, The Associated Press reported.

Earlier in the season, 2 inches of snow fell April 9, postponing the Cubs’ home opener.

Also Wednesday, the city of Chicago canceled what was meant to be the season’s first set of bridge lifts — allowing boat traffic to make its way down the Chicago River to area slips — because of the weather and a lack of participants, officials said. The first lift is scheduled for 8 a.m. Saturday at 8 a.m. and will continue every Wednesday and Saturday morning through June, weather permitting.

“Despite this spring’s colder than normal temperatures, Chicagoans look forward to the lifting of Chicago’s iconic movable river bridges,” Chicago Department of Transportation Commissioner Rebekah Scheinfeld said in a statement.

Although average high temperatures are above freezing, the mercury has frequently dipped below 32 degrees this month. When that happens, the city opens its six warming centers. Five of them are open from 9 a.m. to 5 p.m. on those days; a sixth center, at 10 S. Kedzie Ave., is open around the clock.

“Our policy doesn’t go by a date, it goes by the weather. Even though it’s April, if it’s below 32 degrees, we’re open,” said Cristina Villarreal, a spokeswoman for the city Department of Family & Support Services, which runs the shelters.

The first half of April marks the second-coldest start to the month since 1881, about when the weather service started keeping records, said Mott of the weather service.

The average temperature for April is 46.6 degrees, but this month is registering more than 10 degrees lower — at 36.2 degrees, the weather service said.

All winter, cold air from the north created a blanket that, at times, doesn’t seem to want to lift.

The cold wind and moisture blow into Canada from north of the Pacific Ocean and travels to the Great Lakes area, reinforcing the wintry conditions, Mott said.

“We are still getting cold air from Canada. They are still cold, and they are still snow-covered … that’s why we are still seeing cold from time to time,” Mott said. “We need this pattern to break, and until it breaks, we are susceptible to an inch-plus of snow.”

There is some relief in the future, though. The remainder of April is forecast to see average temperatures and dry weather.
 

Melodi

Disaster Cat
Our weather is still in that rather weird (but wonderful) jump from Deep Winter directly into Almost Summer; it is supposed to get cold and raining again in a few days - which will be really bad for the crops if the rain and cold are too heavy.

At least it is giving the pastures some chances to dry out and some animals are going out on them; I'll have to do some more research but I think the early 14th-century weather was a bit like this in Europe as well.

Long rain and snowy Winters with weird Wind Events, Wet Springs or see-saws with Hot and Cold; droughts in some areas etc - the sort of thing that makes farmers crazy because they can't plan (and you can't change crops overnight to fit the new conditions either).
 

FarmerJohn

Has No Life - Lives on TB

That's the chart to keep your eye on. That a decreasing TSI would lead to cooler temperatures is not only a theory but common sense. Will CO2 above 400 ppm make such cooling less cool than it otherwise might be? I'll bet that some of the climate modelers are working furiously on that one.
 

von Koehler

Has No Life - Lives on TB
That's the chart to keep your eye on. That a decreasing TSI would lead to cooler temperatures is not only a theory but common sense. Will CO2 above 400 ppm make such cooling less cool than it otherwise might be? I'll bet that some of the climate modelers are working furiously on that one.

The error in your thinking is that CO2 causes changes in Earth's temperature.

von Koehler
 

von Koehler

Has No Life - Lives on TB
I had trouble getting the latest gif image to show up here. If I make any mistake, seems like some here like pointing it out. I spend a lot of time researching this topic, for free to the viewers.

von Koehler
 

Melodi

Disaster Cat
I had trouble getting the latest gif image to show up here. If I make any mistake, seems like some here like pointing it out. I spend a lot of time researching this topic, for free to the viewers.

von Koehler

I appreciate your hard work and hope you will continue posting - the latest word is that massive thunderstorms are hitting (or about to hit the UK) We've got a cold wind blowing here and both the UK and Ireland may return to "sub-zero" (below freezing) temperatures by next week at least at night - that is going to play heck with the fruit trees, we may not get much as they are trying to flower now.
 

von Koehler

Has No Life - Lives on TB
An Essay About What Might Happen During the Next Solar Grand Minimum.

An Essay About What Might Happen During the Next Grand Solar Minimum [GSM].

After researching this topic, some thoughts.

First, it is important to grasp that this is an entirely natural cyclical development and has nothing to do with the activities of humanity. Mankind can neither cause, hasten, hinder, or reverse these warming/cooling cycles. Changes in CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere always FOLLOWS changes in temperature, and not PRECEDES it. Logically, this means that this cannot be a cause and effect relationship. Presently the Arctic snow and ice is expanding at a record rate, not melting as claimed by Global Warming advocates. If humanity would suddenly vanish, that departure would have absolutely no effect, one way or the other, about the coming changes in weather and climate.

The GSM is the result of many different complicated, and interacting, factors. The Milkovich astronomical theory goes into great detail about cycles of long, medium, and short duration. Sometimes these cycles reinforce each other; others tend to moderate or even cancel each other out. Our star, the Sun, has its own internal cycles of activity. There are many complex variables in the equation concerning climate, and each needs to be studied and understood.

Some scientists predict that the GSM will occur for the next three solar cycles, or about thirty three years. That is based on the historical record for previous cycles lasting about eleven years each. This is based on the length of anticipated Solar Cycles 25, 26, and 27. However this length of time is not inflexible; it can and often varies cycle to cycle. Some scientists forecast a more dire outlook, suggesting a return of conditions during Maunder Minimum when there were simply no solar cycles. The Sun basically just "went to sleep." During this long period, sunspots were a rarity. The Earth started going backwards to Ice Age conditions. Fortunately for mankind, the Sun restarted and the planet warmed up.

So, expect conditions of the Little Ice Age to return. The winter of 2017/2018 was just the first one! Each succeeding year should be worse. This cannot be overemphasized; you must plan on a colder climate for the rest of your life. And do not think that the GSM only applies to the winter season. It adversely affects the growing season and food production. The total number of growing days, the daily temperatures, rain patterns, sunlight are all changed. Medieval Europa recorded torrential rains, muddy fields, and failed crops. Harvest yields were way down; some types of plants were hit especially hard. Famines were common. Grains like wheat were very weather vulnerable. The Dutch replaced growing grains with root vegetables, which could better tolerate the cloudy, wetter, and often overcast days.

So, it would seem that America's highly developed and specialized agribusiness is destined for a catastrophic failure. The main crops are wheat, corn, and soybeans and they are largely weather dependent-ask any farmer. These grains in turn are mostly used for animal feed; that is the meat supply. One of the initial consequences of the GSM will be drastic price rises for food. Meat and baked goods will become luxuries. Fruits and nuts are very susceptible to Spring frosts and can be totally wiped out.

As an individual, the smartest course of action would be to try to raise, harvest, and preserve as much food as you can. There many innovative approaches to greenhouses being developed, which would act as a "buffer" against adverse weather. Field grown crops might well be a waste of time and effort.

We have one advantage, and that is the actual historical record as a guide for the future. Nature is repeating what has happened before, in terms of location and intensity. Life in Canada, for example, is going to be rather difficult.

2024 is predicted to be the worst year for the current solar cycle number 24.
 
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