Solar Solar Weather and Space News 2024

packyderms_wife

packyderms_wife

Neither here nor there.
From yesterday

Yet Another X-Class Event and CME
May 8, 2024 @ 22:20 UTC (UPDATED)
And the X-Flares just keep on coming.

Big active sunspot region 3664 flared again, this time with a double peak of X1.0 and M9.8. The initial peak was at 21:40 UTC (May 8, 2024). A further update will be provided regarding a possible CME with this latest event. Additional flaring is likely as the region remains magnetically complex.

Third Halo CME: Updated coronagraph imagery following the latest flare event around AR 3664 this evening is showing yet another halo coronal mass ejection (CME). This makes at least 3 plasma clouds that appear to be Earth directed.

The latest NOAA/SWPC update shows that the first and second CMEs from earlier on Wednesday are expected to combine into one impact on May 10th. This third event may pass Earth as a separate later impact. Perhaps some great news for aurora sky watchers this weekend!

Click HERE for video.



Space Weather by SolarHam

www.solarham.com www.solarham.com
 
packyderms_wife

packyderms_wife

Neither here nor there.
GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH--UPGRADED: This weekend's geomagnetic storm watch has been upgraded from G2 (Moderate) to G3 (Strong). Why? Because giant sunspot AR3664 keeps hurling CMEs toward Earth. Following today's X2.2 solar flare, there are now at least 4 storm clouds heading our way. See how many you can count in this 24-hour movie from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory:

​

A NOAA forecast model predicts the first CME will reach Earth late on May 10th. Additional CMEs will arrive on May 11th and possibly 12th. Minor to strong geomagnetic storms could occur on all three days, with auroras potentially visible at mid-latitudes in Europe and the USA.

 
S

SciFi Lover

Member
Yes, Tristan, good question. I have read all the posts, and somewhat followed this in the past. Still, would love someone who really follows this to summarize what we should expect circa 4 PM EST tomorrow (if I did the time conversion correctly) and then into Saturday. As I'm away from home, this is a major concern with me.
 
Millwright

Millwright

Knuckle Dragger
_______________
G4 WATCH IN EFFECT FOR MAY 11
published: Thursday, May 09, 2024 18:45 UTC
Multiple CMEs erupted associated with flare activity from Region 3664 on 07-09 May. These CMEs are expected to merge with potential arrival expected by early May 11 on the UTC day.


Copy%20of%20NEW%20G4%20Watch%20Template%20%281%29%20%281%29.png



G4 Watch In Effect for May 11 | NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center

www.swpc.noaa.gov www.swpc.noaa.gov
 
bw

bw

Fringe Ranger
Tristan said:
Is this a "Unplug all appliances for the duration" type of event?

Or, "We're scr##ed for the Duration" kind of thing?
Click to expand...
CMEs induce low voltages over very large antennas, like the power grid. So a power line may pick up one or two volts per kilometer. This is a big deal when it hits a power station, and may drive transformers past their design limits, but it's trivial for your home electronics. That is, there's no dangerous voltage being induced inside an unplugged component. It's smart to unplug, because there can be fluctuations in the line, just like in a thunderstorm. It's also smart to unplug antennas because they'll pick up voltage and might damage your receiver inputs. But it's not necessary to put stuff in a Faraday box.

An EMP can induce a voltage of thousands of volts per meter, and that will fry your radios and whatnot.
 
Tristan

Tristan

Has No Life - Lives on TB
bw said:
CMEs induce low voltages over very large antennas, like the power grid. So a power line may pick up one or two volts per kilometer. This is a big deal when it hits a power station, and may drive transformers past their design limits, but it's trivial for your home electronics. That is, there's no dangerous voltage being induced inside an unplugged component. It's smart to unplug, because there can be fluctuations in the line, just like in a thunderstorm. It's also smart to unplug antennas because they'll pick up voltage and might damage your receiver inputs. But it's not necessary to put stuff in a Faraday box.

An EMP can induce a voltage of thousands of volts per meter, and that will fry your radios and whatnot.
Click to expand...

Thanks for the reply.

Perhaps my question would be more directly, what's the magnitude of this incipient solar storm, and the odds it would be damaging in a widespread area to the core infrastructure?

My eyes have been on other problems for the past few years, so I'm not up to speed on the current (rational) thinking on this episode, and the presenter's track record.
 
packyderms_wife

packyderms_wife

Neither here nor there.
Tristan said:
For those who follow this closer than I, is the site reporting this reliable?

Is this a "Unplug all appliances for the duration" type of event?

Or, "We're scr##ed for the Duration" kind of thing?

Odds?

Thanks.
Click to expand...

SciFi Lover said:
Yes, Tristan, good question. I have read all the posts, and somewhat followed this in the past. Still, would love someone who really follows this to summarize what we should expect circa 4 PM EST tomorrow (if I did the time conversion correctly) and then into Saturday. As I'm away from home, this is a major concern with me.
Click to expand...

No, we're not all going to die. No, I don't think it'll be an EMP type event. I would expect some weird satellite things going on, so if you go grocery shopping don't be surprised of the computer operated cash register might not work... ditto on getting gas. I'm expecting it to be random, not nation wide.

As for multiple X flares coming at us, these are small in comparison to the Carrington Event. However, because our magnetosphere is growing weaker, repeated small class X flares would be like an EF1 tornado going over a town, circling back, and doing that repeatedly. Eventually something is going to break from the stress.

I myself am more concerned about a major earthquake happening as a result of these X flares hitting the planet.
 
packyderms_wife

packyderms_wife

Neither here nor there.
Tristan said:
Thanks for the reply.

Perhaps my question would be more directly, what's the magnitude of this incipient solar storm, and the odds it would be damaging in a widespread area to the core infrastructure?

My eyes have been on other problems for the past few years, so I'm not up to speed on the current (rational) thinking on this episode, and the presenter's track record.
Click to expand...

Expect internet and satellite dish hiccups and the like same as a thunderstorm, any damage that could potentially happen will probably in weird locations, not nationwide.
 
Meemur

Meemur

Voice on the Prairie / FJB!
That's why I'll run out tonight, grab some fresh produce, and top off my gas. No biggie if nothing happens. Those are regular Friday activities that would become more complicated if the point-of-sale machines go down.
 
Doc1

Doc1

Has No Life - Lives on TB
I was just wondering what, if any, effect these CMEs would possibly have on any humans in low Earth orbit? I no longer follow the space program(s) avidly, but don't we and the Russians currently have astronauts/cosmonauts on the ISS and don't the Chinese have people up on their space station?

It's my understanding that humans outside the protective envelope of the Earth's atmosphere can suffer much more severe effects than the rest of us. Due to the obvious weight restrictions on all spacecraft, they can't provide much in the way of mass shielding for their crews.

Does anyone here have a handle on what the space crews might be in for?

Best
Doc
 
packyderms_wife

packyderms_wife

Neither here nor there.
Doc1 said:
I was just wondering what, if any, effect these CMEs would possibly have on any humans in low Earth orbit? I no longer follow the space program(s) avidly, but don't we and the Russians currently have astronauts/cosmonauts on the ISS and don't the Chinese have people up on their space station?

It's my understanding that humans outside the protective envelope of the Earth's atmosphere can suffer much more severe effects than the rest of us. Due to the obvious weight restrictions on all spacecraft, they can't provide much in the way of mass shielding for their crews.

Does anyone here have a handle on what the space crews might be in for?

Best
Doc
Click to expand...

No clue, but you pose some very interesting questions. Also in the event of something like this, and they're pretty certain this is going to hit North America, what about the satellites flying overhead at the time of said event, do they power them down?

If you don't mind I'm going to post your question over at SuspiciousObservers, Ben may know about the ISS.
 
W

WOS

Veteran Member
danielboon said:
The 11th is a color I have never seen before on the solarham page purple. And the graph is down.
Click to expand...
This is the link to the chart that Solarham uses on their site, which they are showing as not available. The chart IS available at the NOAA site. As I am not able to bring an accurate copy over to here to post, if you want to look at the chart you have to go the NOAA site.

GOES X-ray Flux | NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center

www.swpc.noaa.gov www.swpc.noaa.gov
 
Tom McDowell

Tom McDowell

BAMN
packyderms_wife said:
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g8tMmg6jHak

RT 6:23 - SuspiciousObservers
High-Risk Solar Storm Forecast - Full Analysis
Click to expand...
Hello World,

This is a very good video to watch.

BTW - No one actually knows how this series of ejections will affect us. If someone is telling you as it's a fact, they're blowing smoke.

Previously held, invest-able spaced based calculations are invalid due to extreme changes in our magnetosphere. Big money is floating bets on specific outcomes utilizing old data to calculate orbital constants. An example of failure: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2022SW003330

I see nearly every current solar event affecting Earth - as having at the least, a nominal novel outcome component.

For a snip of the possibilities, see for yourself what's changing. Watch the video.

Be Seeing You,

===
.
 
packyderms_wife

packyderms_wife

Neither here nor there.
Tom McDowell said:
Hello World,

This is a very good video to watch.

BTW - No one actually knows how this series of ejections will affect us. If someone is telling you as it's a fact, they're blowing smoke.

Previously held, invest-able spaced based calculations are invalid due to extreme changes in our magnetosphere. Big money is floating bets on specific outcomes utilizing old data to calculate orbital constants. An example of failure: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2022SW003330

I see nearly every current solar event affecting Earth - as having at the least, a nominal novel outcome component.

For a snip of the possibilities, see for yourself what's changing. Watch the video.

Be Seeing You,

===
.
Click to expand...
I’m expecting satellites to be wiggy and that’s it.

ETA meaning I might not get to stream online shows and this is why I bought a blue ray dvd player recently! Ummm yeah.
 
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