BRKG S. Korea: North Korea test fires submarine missile (23 Aug 16) ETA: Flew 300 miles

[Housecarl]

Hummm.....

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/national/2016/08/29/0301000000AEN20160829000600315.html

Politics/DiplomacyNationalPolitics/Diplomacy
(EDITORIAL from The Korea Times on Aug. 29)
2016/08/29 07:22

NK missile threat

SLBM tests should serve as wakeup call to China

It is laudable for China to join the world at the United Nations to condemn North Korea for its Aug. 24 test of a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) that flew inside Japan's air defense zone.

In the aftermath of the North's Aug. 3 test, Beijing didn't sign on for the U.N. condemnation, insisting that the United States first cancel its plan to deploy a missile interceptor in South Korea.

By many indications, the latest move by the Chinese leaves a lot of doubt over whether this is a permanent change of stance toward its client state's strategic weapons programs ― missiles and nuclear weapons.

Rather, it should be better seen as part of China's elaborate efforts to prevent any distraction in the lead-up to the G-20 Summit it hosts in Hangzhou, Sept. 4 and 5.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi reiterated his country's opposition to the deployment of the Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) battery in South Korea during a meeting with his counterparts from Seoul and Tokyo, which was held on the same day the North conducted its latest SLBM test.

This signifies Beijing sees a greater threat in THAAD, a defense-oriented weapon system, than the North's missiles that can make a deadly mix when combined with its nuclear weapons.

There are other signs that Beijing doesn't take the North's weapons of mass destruction seriously. Despite the toughest-ever U.N. sanctions taken following the North's nuclear and long-range missile tests early this year, Beijing is suspected of not being strict enough with controlling the movement of goods to the North. Also, it has paid the North tens of millions of dollars in exchange for fishing rights in the East and West seas. An educated guess is that irrespective of its intentions, China has helped the Kim Jong-un regime continue with its dangerous weapons programs.

China may feel the North in its pocket for many reasons. First of all, it is the key supplier of everything Pyongyang needs. If it cuts off fuel pipelines, the North's industry would grind to a full stop. Or if it withholds grain exports, famine would hit the North.

Plus, China certainly believes that the North, which is indulged in the game of pretending to be a big power, is better to have borders with than with the South, a U.S. ally.

But China should wake up from this old thinking for itself and the rest of the world.

The North's stealth SLBM has become sophisticated and the country is pushing hard for the development of intercontinental missiles as well as nuclear warheads through miniaturization efforts. Some experts say that it is only two years before the North's SLBMs go operational. It's noteworthy that the North is one of a handful of nations that have conducted nuclear tests in the latest 10 years, a reason why its nuclear devices can't be underestimated.

China shouldn't rule out the possibility that the North's nuclear-tipped long-range missiles are turned in the direction of Beijing or Shanghai, much closer than targets in the United States. After all, an old diplomatic saying goes, "There are no permanent friends nor permanent enemies but only permanent interests." China needs to stop being shortsighted, see the runaway train in the North and sincerely join in the global efforts to stop it before it's too late.

(END)

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1201857/kn-11-and-thaad/

http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/files/2016/08/KN11.png

KN-11 AND THAAD

by Jeffrey Lewis | August 28, 2016 | No Comments

North Korea has now tested what appears to be a two-stage, solid-fueled ballistic missile capable of delivering a nuclear weapon to more than 1,000 km, probably much more. I would have thought that would garner some attention.

North Korea’s new ballistic missile, which the US calls the KN-11, is a technically submarine-launched ballistic missile. But there is nothing to stop North Korea from deploying it as land-based ballistic missile as well. In fact, that’s what China did with the JL-1 (deployed as the DF-21/CSS-5, left) and what North Korea did with the SS-N-6 (deployed as the Hwasong-10/Musudan, right.)

http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/files/2016/08/df_21.jpg

http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/files/2016/08/musudan-534x300.jpg

While press reports indicate that the KN-11 flew 500 km, take a look at the display being shown to Kim Jong Un. Like the most recent test of the Musudan, North Korea appears to have “lofted” the missile. In other words, North Korea fired it nearly straight up, reducing the range. If fired on a minimum trajectory, the KN-11 would have traveled much further than 500 km — over 1,000 km and probably much further. We’ll get to modeling the missile and its range, but at this point it doesn’t matter all that much.

http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/files/2016/08/Kim_loft.jpg

We know enough to know that this is, as Joe Biden might say, a big ****ing deal.

The KN-11 offers North Korea a flexible system to threaten South Korea. For one thing, the missile is solid-fueled. Liquid-fueled missiles take a significant period of time to fuel and launch. Soviet units practiced to launch a Scud in 90 minutes, although the Iraqis reduced that time and demonstrated other measures to reduce detection. Solid-fueled missiles “significantly shorter reaction and reload time than existing Scud missiles,” a point made in 2007 when North Korea began deploying the short-range KN-02. That’s appealing to the North Koreans, although I would argue that it also drives the basic escalation dynamics on the Korea peninsula that worry me.

And once the missiles are launched, presumably in a salvo of several missiles, the KN-11 has additional advantages against missile-defense systems like THAAD. THAAD has a forward-looking radar with a 120-degree field of view. In the case of a single THAAD battery, North Korea’s submarines would not have to travel very far out to sea to attack the THAAD system from behind the field of view of its radar. I’ve made a map that shows the proposed location of the THAAD battery, its field of view, and the bases where its missiles submarines might be based. As you can see, a North Korean SLBM offers the opportunity to hit the THAAD site from behind. The rings show 500, 1000 and 2000 km from the THAAD battery.

http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/files/2016/08/Screen-Shot-2016-08-27-at-5.09.32-PM-1024x782.png

One obvious implication of this map is that South Korea needs two THAAD batteries to better cover ocean approaches. That is an obvious solution to at least part of the problem posed by the KN-11.

http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/files/2016/08/Screen-Shot-2016-08-27-at-5.09.54-PM-1024x785.png

Of course, this does little to address the possibility of lofted attacks, which could be launched from the waters near North Korea’s naval bases — or from North Korea itself if a land-based variant is deployed. Lofting a long-range missile results in reentry at very high speeds and at a very severe angle. Whether THAAD can deal with a lofted KN-11 depends in part on the missile’s range. I don’t want to revisit debates about what used to be called “demarcation” between theater and national missile defenses, but I will observe that there was a healthy debate in 1990s about THAAD’s ability to intercept warheads reentering at higher speeds. THAAD is designed to intercept medium-range ballistic missiles (1,000-3,000 km in range) and in theory should have some capability to intercept intermediate-range missiles (3,000-5,500 km). But THAAD has never been tested against an intermediate-range target, let alone on such an unusual angle of attack. The Pentagon’s testing office, DOT&E, gives THAAD a good rating against MRBMs, but the lowest possible rating against IRBMs:

http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/files/2016/08/Screen-Shot-2016-08-28-at-1.08.41-PM-1024x845.png

The effectiveness of THAAD will depend on the range of the KN-11, as well as how well THAAD handles the angle of attack. THAAT might be able to handle the KN-11, but it is distressing that North Korea can already present a threat that stresses defenses not yet deployed.

My broad point is an obvious one. South Korea has every right to defend itself against ballistic missile attack, both through THAAD and indigenous missile defenses. I don’t understand the public opposition to THAAD in South Korea. But even so, I don’t think we can arms-race our way out of vulnerability with North Korea. There are too many countermeasures available to North Korea defeat missile defenses. And, with nuclear weapons, North Korea doesn’t need a high success rate. One or two will do. Deploying defenses and precision-strike capabilities will intensify the arms race rather than provide an escape from it. So while I am sympathetic to those who recoil at the idea of sharing vulnerability with Kim Jong Un, don’t kid yourself: arms-racing only binds our fates more closely together. It’s a Gordian knot, where our best efforts to wriggle free of vulnerability only tighten the ropes. Our best option, unpalatable as it may be, involves finding ways to discourage North Korea from developing new capabilities. Defense is a far less effective strategy. This is a point I made a few months ago when I proposed the deeply unsatisfying solution of accepting North Korea’s liquid-fueled missile programs under the guise of its “space” program in order to head off the development of a solid-fueled missile program, a future that now seems to be here.

 

[Heliobas Disciple]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...7c9537-738a-47ef-9a9a-87b49449174a_story.html
(fair use applies)

North Korea fires missiles as G-20 continues in China
By Anna Fifield September 5 at 2:15 AM

TOKYO — North Korea fired three ballistic missiles into the sea off its east coast Monday, possibly timed to coincide with the meeting of leaders of the world’s 20 largest economies in neighboring China.

North Korea launched the missiles from a site south of Pyongyang at 12:14 p.m. local time, South Korea's joint chiefs of staff said.

The missiles were medium-range Rodong-class and flew about 600 miles, Reuters news reported, citing South Korea’s military. At least one of the missiles fell into Japan’s Air Defence Identification Zone, a South Korean military official told the news agency.

This is just the latest salvo in a steady series of missiles coming from North Korea. Last month, Kim Jong Un’s regime claimed a “great success” in launching a ballistic missile from a submarine about 300 miles towards Japan, on top of making progress on its medium-range Musudan missile technology.

This is a particularly tense time in the region because of frictions over the Terminal High Altitude Area Defence (THAAD) anti-missile battery that the United States will deploy to South Korea, part of their defense against North Korea.

Beijing has protested strongly against the plan, viewing it as part of an American effort to restrain a strengthening China, and worrying that the system will hone in on China’s military activities.

The issue has helped close the gap between China and its erstwhile client state, North Korea, after the provocations of a nuclear test and long-range missile launch earlier this year. Beijing and Pyongyang have traditionally been “as close as lips and teeth,” as they saying goes, but Xi Jinping, China’s president, has made his disdain for the young Kim clear.

Earlier, during the G-20 meeting being hosted by Xi in the eastern Chinese city of Hangzhou, South Korean president Park Geun-hye said she hoped Seoul and Beijing would be able to unite together against North Korea.

I “hope that through earnest communication, our two countries can turn this challenge into an opportunity to further strengthen and move forward our bilateral relationship,” Park said during a bilateral meeting with Xi, according to Yonhap.

But Xi reiterated his strong objections to Park’s decision to accept the THAAD battery onto South Korean soil.

"Mishandling the issue is not conducive to strategic stability in the region and could intensify disputes," Xi told Park, according to a report from the Chinese state-run news agency Xinhua.

 

[Possible Impact]

Laura Kennedy ‏@AmbKennedy_ret 1h
USG: North Korea Ballistic Missile Launches
threaten civil aviation & maritime commerce
http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2016/09/261585.htm?goMobile=0#.V83WGzFLJ6c.twitter …

^^^ Key words that will 'unlock' certain responses.