ALERT RUSSIA INVADES UKRAINE - Consolidated Thread

Cedar Lake

Connecticut Yankee
Major European banks paid 800 Million Euros in taxes in Russia last year

This amount is four times higher than in 2021, before the war. Seven of the largest European banks by asset size in Russia reported a combined profit of over 3 billion euros in 2023—three times more than in 2021. The revenues of Raiffeisen Bank International, UniCredit, ING, Commerzbank, Deutsche Bank, Intesa Sanpaolo, and OTP were partially generated from funds that the banks were unable to withdraw from Russia.

The taxes paid by these European banks account for about 0.4% of all non-energy revenue expected in Russia’s budget for 2024. :lkick::lkick::lkick:

Two weeks ago, the European Central Bank announced plans to instruct Raiffeisen Bank to reduce its Russian credit portfolio by 65% by 2026.

The Austrian banking group responded that such a requirement could negatively impact the ability to sell the division and withdraw funds from Russia. :):)

 

jward

passin' thru

jward

passin' thru
Poland - please store your US Nukes here - we want to make the list of First Strike Targets
o it gets better

Victor vicktop55
@vicktop55

Vladislav Kosiniak-Kamysh, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Defense of Poland, said that the European Union plans to make a decision on transferring military-age men to Ukraine. Negotiations on this topic are already underway between Kiev and Brussels

“Today we talked about this (about the possibility of searching for and transferring to Ukraine citizens who evade conscription - editor's note) at the Council of Ministers. It is very important, and we talked about this, that this be a decision at the European level. And I know that negotiations are ongoing between Kiev and Brussels on this topic.”

Victor vicktop55
 

Johnny Twoguns

Senior Member
The support of some Republicans for Putin has had disastrous results for Ukraine.
Support? Or they just don't see any sense in a war with Russia (a REAL war with Russia - you know, where you and I die?) half way around the world where Ukraine is only "important" to corrupt (Pelosi Romney Biden Kerry) politicians with kids in the Ukraine oil business(:lol:), CIA and Narco money laundering, and of course the 18 bioweapons labs (very similar to the ones that worked on Covid germs and the Vax; some say the very same ones).

So maybe they had other reasons than to "support Putin".
 

Abert

Veteran Member
o it gets better

Victor vicktop55
@vicktop55

Vladislav Kosiniak-Kamysh, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Defense of Poland, said that the European Union plans to make a decision on transferring military-age men to Ukraine. Negotiations on this topic are already underway between Kiev and Brussels

“Today we talked about this (about the possibility of searching for and transferring to Ukraine citizens who evade conscription - editor's note) at the Council of Ministers. It is very important, and we talked about this, that this be a decision at the European level. And I know that negotiations are ongoing between Kiev and Brussels on this topic.”

Victor vicktop55
Russia's population and labor shortage may be over soon. Some "talk" of Russia offering them Visas or Passports.
Again another shortsighted EU (US) action that will likely backfire - like all of their others.
 
Last edited:

Abert

Veteran Member
I can't believe the Rus aren't just shooting down NATO aircraft that are directing or otherwise helping to kill Russians. After going on full alert and warning NATO that such was coming if they keep it up. Something doesn't add up. I don't think Putin knows how to be taken UBER seriously.
Likely they will have to at some point. The problem is for Russia to attack a US / EU aircraft over international waters could be viewed as an act of war.
However - if / when any EU nation enters Ukraine IN UNIFORM then if they have AWAC's or other aircraft - all fair game. Naturally the US will push for EU troops to do this but will want to maintain clean hands and will be sure not to give Russia a "legal" reason to hit US aircraft.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Likely they will have to at some point. The problem is for Russia to attack a US / EU aircraft over international waters could be viewed as an act of war.
However - if / when any EU nation enters Ukraine IN UNIFORM then if they have AWAC's or other aircraft - all fair game. Naturally the US will push for EU troops to do this but will want to maintain clean hands and will be sure not to give Russia a "legal" reason to hit US aircraft.

With Macron’s latest statements we'll be lucky with a frozen conflict. We're just as likely to see the first real use of tactical nuclear weapons.
 

Abert

Veteran Member
Clash Report
@clashreport
11m

This Ukrainian ATACMS strike on training ground seems to have caused huge losses for Russian Army.

116 RF Army soldiers counted by Ukrainian sources as casualties.
View: https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/1785677985766400175
Good Newsweek coverage

Cluster rounds on grouped troops are effective. What is more interesting is Ukraine had to have almost real time knowledge of the grouping.

It was expected that the new long range ATACMS would get some strikes in - outside the normal contact range into areas that have not been targeted in the past. A new factor that will need to be taken into account.

Still in the Big Picture - a few dozen (even the overestimate of 116 by Ukraine) is NOT a BIG LOSS. Many times that number are being lost every day. 3 ATACMS vs nonstop Russian Missile attack across all of Ukraine - BUT - I am sure we are about to see dozens of new YouTube videos (soon to be posed here) about this strike with the breathless commentary on how NOW - THIS TIME - it is all over for Russia
 

Weps

Veteran Member
The support of some Republicans for Putin has had disastrous results for Ukraine.

Ukraine was doomed the day the it ceded it's nuclear arsenal and got in bed with US politicians.

No amout hopium or Western supplied money and equipment can replace a dedicated, trained national military armed with domestically produced arms, supplied by a well funded defense industry.
 

Red Baron

Paleo-Conservative
_______________
Fair Use Cited
------------------
Another US precision-guided weapon falls prey to Russian electronic warfare, US says

A U.S. defense official would not provide specifics, but is likely referring to Boeing’s Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bomb.

BY SAM SKOVE
STAFF WRITER
APRIL 28, 2024

U.S.-provided precision-guided munitions have failed in mission after mission in Ukraine, taken down by Russian electronic warfare. On Wednesday, the Pentagon revealed the latest casualty.

A new ground-launched version of an air-to-ground weapon developed for Ukraine on a rapid timeline failed to hit targets in part because of Russian electro-magnetic warfare, Bill LaPlante, the Pentagon's acquisition chief, said at an event held by think tank CSIS.

LaPlante suggested that Ukraine may no longer be interested in the weapon. “When you send something to people in the fight of their lives that just doesn’t work, they’ll try it three times and they’ll just throw it aside,” said LaPlante.

The weapon LaPlante is referring to is very likely the Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bomb (GLSDB) based on his description, according to Bryan Clark, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute.

A Boeing spokesperson did not confirm that LaPlante was referring to GLSDB, but said the company is “working closely with the [Defense Department] on spiral capability improvements to the ground-launch SDB system.” Spiral capability improvements refers to an iterative software development process.

The GLDSB boasts a range of 90 miles—double the range of the Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System (GMRLS) missiles Ukraine previously used to wreak havoc on Russia’s logistic centers. Funding for the weapon was approved in February 2023, and Ukraine was reportedly using the weapon by February 2024.

The weapon relies on GPS to navigate to its targets. It also has an inertial navigation system, which navigates to a target by estimating its position through the use of accelerometers and other devices.

But it is not the first GPS-guided weapon to fall afoul of Russian electronic warfare.

In congressional testimony in March, Hudson Institute Senior Fellow Daniel Patt said the targeting system for the GPS-guided Excalibur round “dropped from 70 percent effectiveness to 6 percent effectiveness over a matter of a few months as new EW mechanisms came out” in Ukraine. Patt cited the work of Jack Watling, an expert at think-tank RUSI who has traveled to Ukraine multiple times to interview Ukrainian commanders.

Russian electronic warfare attacks have also directed GMLRS missiles off course, CNN reported last spring. The missiles are similarly guided by a GPS. Russia has also successfully used electronic warfare against GPS-guided Joint Direct Attack Munitions (JDAMs), which are retrofitted aerial bombs.

Russian electronic warfare on the U.S.’s “more precise capabilities is a challenge,” the commander of the chief U.S. aid coordinating group told an audience in December.

Clark, citing a presentation by Ukrainian soldiers, said the Russians use GPS spoofers to throw off the munitions.

GPS spoofers work by sending false location data to GPS navigation devices. Because GPS signals are weak, a stronger, false signal can be sent to override the correct inputs. Russia has used GPS spoofing in Ukraine since at least 2018. But advancements in technology mean spoofers can be created cheaply with just a software-defined radio and open-source software.

The weapons the spoofers are working against, meanwhile, are anything but cheap. A GMLRS missile costs around $160,000, while an Excalibur round can cost as much as $100,000. The GLDSB costs around $40,000.

However, the weapons were largely designed for a period before spoofers were so easy to set up, Clark said. “You didn't really see the advent of miniaturized, capable GPS spoofers until the last ten years or so, because you needed the micro-electronics to be able to do it,” Clark said.

Russia has saturated the front with electronic warfare, Clark said. Truck-mounted electronic warfare systems primarily focused on jamming drones are located every six to nine miles on Ukraine’s frontline, he said.

But Ukraine could use other U.S. munitions that are not susceptible to GPS spoofing, Clark added, citing the Harpoon missile.

The U.S. could also provide more sophisticated munitions, like the JASSM (Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile), but Clark discounted that possibility because of its range. The Biden. administration has sought to limit Ukraine’s use of longer-range weapons that could target Russia directly.

Another solution might be to launch weapons from F-16s. Ukrainian pilots currently launch JDAMS from Soviet planes that can’t pass navigational data to the JDAMS, whereas F-16s can, Clark said. Ukrainian pilots are training on F-16s and will be ready to fly them by the end of this year.

Ukraine can also work to jam Russia’s systems, Clark added. Russia has mostly been using an analog of the JDAM, the KAB, which can also be misdirected by spoofing its guidance system.

And Ukraine is “fielding some systems now” for electronic warfare targeting of satellite navigation, Clark said. Still, since Russia is targeting civilian populations, “they may not care that much if they get spoofed.”

 

Weps

Veteran Member
tip o' the iceburg, I bet.


Patrick Webb
@RealPatrickWebb
2h

BREAKING: The DoD has pulled $130M of their $140M training budget for the USAACE flight program to allocate it towards Ukraine and other foreign obligations, according to newly leaked email.
View: https://twitter.com/RealPatrickWebb/status/1785481391951544424

USAACE is the U.S. Army Aviation Center of Excellence, it is the US Army's flight school, along with a slew of other functions such as training for Unmanned Aerial Systems (drones), mechanic training, etc...

DoD just allocated 95% of the Army's flight school budget to Ukraine...the training pipeline for Army pilots is 15-18 months...we just going to forego having new Army pilots for two years?

Helos are just a tad important to the Army's function and operational capabilities.
 

wait-n-see

Veteran Member
Ukraine was doomed the day the it ceded it's nuclear arsenal and got in bed with US politicians.

No amout hopium or Western supplied money and equipment can replace a dedicated, trained national military armed with domestically produced arms, supplied by a well funded defense industry.

Ukraine never had it's own nuclear weapons. The weapons were manned and fully controlled by the USSR forces, from Moscow. Ukraine was treated like a "host country" in this regard.

The same setup we do when we place nuclear weapons in other countries. We keep physical control over the delivery systems and weapons, as well as any arming procedures. The host country has no control or access.
 

Abert

Veteran Member
Ukraine was doomed the day the it ceded it's nuclear arsenal and got in bed with US politicians.

No amout hopium or Western supplied money and equipment can replace a dedicated, trained national military armed with domestically produced arms, supplied by a well funded defense industry.
Ukraine NEVER had Nukes - they were controlled 100% by the Soviet Union. Yes some were stored in the Ukraine area. This is exactly the relation the US has with Germany - US Nukes in German bunkers - but always under US control. Same with Poland now requesting US Nukes be based there. Ukraine was never a Nuclear Power - the Soviet Union was. The Nukes STORED there were not given up - they were just taken back.
 

Johnny Twoguns

Senior Member
Likely they will have to at some point. The problem is for Russia to attack a US / EU aircraft over international waters could be viewed as an act of war.
However - if / when any EU nation enters Ukraine IN UNIFORM then if they have AWAC's or other aircraft - all fair game. Naturally the US will push for EU troops to do this but will want to maintain clean hands and will be sure not to give Russia a "legal" reason to hit US aircraft.
NATO, or parts of it, including the USA are already at war with Russia. What WILL the USA or NATO do if Russia starts shooting them down, and satellites? All out WWIII? I don't think so. First off half of NATO would just say 'no', "we already went through WWII, we are not ready to do it again".

It was reported that China has said it will support Russia militarily anywhere in the world if it comes to that. Blinkin and Yellen recently went to China and were treated like third rate visitors. The Biden Show has ruined all respect for the power of the USA. This time, if it came to open war then we could get hit in multiple regions, in a serious way.

And then what? Nukes? Are you willing to go there for Ukraine? A country most Americans couldn't have pointed out on a map two years ago.
 

wait-n-see

Veteran Member
NATO, or parts of it, including the USA are already at war with Russia. What WILL the USA or NATO do if Russia starts shooting them down, and satellites? All out WWIII? I don't think so. First off half of NATO would just say 'no', "we already went through WWII, we are not ready to do it again".

It was reported that China has said it will support Russia militarily anywhere in the world if it comes to that. Blinkin and Yellen recently went to China and were treated like third rate visitors. The Biden Show has ruined all respect for the power of the USA. This time, if it came to open war then we could get hit in multiple regions, in a serious way.

And then what? Nukes? Are you willing to go there for Ukraine? A country most Americans couldn't have pointed out on a map two years ago.

Two years ago?? Heck, our education system is such a joke now that most American citizens would not be able to point out the country ( soon to be gone or greatly diminished ) of Ukraine now, and even a large percentage would not be able to point out specific states, even the one they live in, on a map of the Good Old USA. :shk:
 

Abert

Veteran Member
NATO, or parts of it, including the USA are already at war with Russia. What WILL the USA or NATO do if Russia starts shooting them down, and satellites? All out WWIII? I don't think so. First off half of NATO would just say 'no', "we already went through WWII, we are not ready to do it again".

It was reported that China has said it will support Russia militarily anywhere in the world if it comes to that. Blinkin and Yellen recently went to China and were treated like third rate visitors. The Biden Show has ruined all respect for the power of the USA. This time, if it came to open war then we could get hit in multiple regions, in a serious way.

And then what? Nukes? Are you willing to go there for Ukraine? A country most Americans couldn't have pointed out on a map two years ago.
YEP a game of cat and mouse - recall a few months ago a Russian Jet took out a spy drone over the Black Sea - dumped fuel on it - killed the engine and down it went. That is the only example that I am aware of - likely the first actions would be to directly take out the drones (zero loss of life) - see what the reaction is. Or declare the Black Sea xxx miles from the Russian coast a WAR ZONE - take your chances. Without question this issue is not over.
 

Walrus

Veteran Member
While doing a bunch of springtime stuff, I've been studying the Suwalki Gap a little. I think that area's been mostly an afterthought until the past couple of years. What with the increasing aggressive posturing of Poland and the incessant hysterical yapping from the chihuahua Baltic countries, though, that area appears to be more on the radar screen.

I wouldn't be completely surprised if there weren't some sort of incendiary (literally) events happening in Kaliningrad by bad actors hoping to instigate some NATO reaction to a Russian response. When conditions are right, a big blaze can be started with a small spark.
 

SITREP 5/1/24: The Russian Steamroller Rolls On as Ukraine Braces for Impact​


Simplicius
May 02, 2024


Let’s start things a little bit differently this time and go straight to battlefield updates, as the Russian forces continue to make headway in a number of key sectors.
On the Avdeevka axis there have been several noteworthy gains since last time.
Firstly, the large gap area between Arkhangelsk and Keramik has been completely taken, circled in yellow below:


Arkhangelske itself is now also being stormed with a portion of it reportedly occupied by Russian troops, seen above the yellow arrow.



And now even Sokol/Sokil on the west side is being approached, with Russian troops moving up Karl Marx Avenue from Soloviev and engaging in battles with AFU troops on the outskirts of the small settlement.

Zooming out, we can once again see that the key hub of the region, Kostantinovka, is slowly being enveloped by the salients pushing in from Ocheretino and Chasov Yar, with the Ocheretino, the southern portion of the pincer now 10km from cutting Konstantinovka’s MSR:



In the north, RF units of the 98th Airborne Division advance in Chasov Yar not only directly head on, but bypassing the easternmost portion to the south where Russian troops have now been geolocated to passing over the Seversky-Donets canal highlighted in white below:



This means they appear to be attempting to put the main body of Chasov Yar into a pincer like so:



Spiegel:



end snip

====

We should expect things to heat up the next few days & weeks - as usual much more at the link.


===
.
 

Abert

Veteran Member
Visegrád 24
@visegrad24
BREAKING:

The streets in Tbilisi are absolutely packed with protesters.

The MPs have been evacuated from the parliament as more and more Georgians are coming to the capital city to protest against “the Russian Law”

They are playing the EU anthem
View: https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1785747757803634944
100% the exact playbook Victoria Nuland used in Ukraine - that cost over 3 Billion - wonder how much $$ is being put into this? If they pass the law - likely we will find out.

Background:

Why are Georgians protesting?​

Thousands of Georgians have been demonstrating each night since 17 April, when the country’s parliament approved a first reading of the controversial “foreign agents” bill.

The bill, called “the Russian law” by critics, would require groups receiving more than 20% of their funding from outside Georgia to register as foreign agents.
 
Last edited:

Abert

Veteran Member

What 10 Years of U.S. Meddling in Ukraine Have Wrought (Spoiler Alert: Not Democracy)​

Excellent (long) article covering the last 10 years - in detail - by Aaron Maté


In successfully lobbying Congress for an additional $61 billion in Ukraine war funding, an effort that ended this month with celebratory Democrats waving Ukrainian flags in the House chamber, President Biden has cast his administration’s standoff with Russia as an existential test for democracy.

Over the last decade, Ukraine has been the battleground in a proxy war between the U.S. and Russia – a conflict massively escalated by the Kremlin’s invasion in 2022. The fight erupted in early 2014, when Biden and his team, then serving in the Obama administration, supported the overthrow of Ukraine’s elected president, Viktor Yanukovych. Leveraging billions of dollars in U.S. assistance, Washington has shaped the personnel and policies of subsequent Ukrainian governments, all while expanding its military and intelligence presence in Ukraine via the CIA and NATO. During this period, Ukraine has not become an independent self-sustaining democracy, but a client state heavily dependent on European and U.S. support, which has not protected it from the ravages of war.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
No time to read - well you can check out this 30 min interview with the author

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gp2fMIGyXNw
 

Abert

Veteran Member
YES - RT - but you are not likely to see this in Western MSM - and YES a pure propaganda move by Russia - but popular.
"At last German tanks made it to Moscow!"

Drone captures scale of Western-supplied armor display in Moscow​

 
Last edited:

Abert

Veteran Member
He keeps doubling down - he is quickly putting France in a box - he just got kicked out of Africa - next Ukraine?

Russian Advance Rattles Macron? French President Vows Troops If "Ukraine Requests Or Front Breaks"(5 min)

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YOVCMC2otNQ

French President Emmanuel Macron in an interview with Economist reiterated that he has not ruled out sending troops to Ukraine. Macron said that the issue would "legitimately" arise "If the Russians were to break through the front lines, if there were a Ukrainian request”. “We would legitimately have to ask ourselves this question," Macron said. The French president also emphasized that NATO had overcome its initial reluctance to send advanced weaponry to Ukraine.
 

Weps

Veteran Member
Ukraine never had it's own nuclear weapons. The weapons were manned and fully controlled by the USSR forces, from Moscow. Ukraine was treated like a "host country" in this regard.

The same setup we do when we place nuclear weapons in other countries. We keep physical control over the delivery systems and weapons, as well as any arming procedures. The host country has no control or access.

Ukraine NEVER had Nukes - they were controlled 100% by the Soviet Union. Yes some were stored in the Ukraine area. This is exactly the relation the US has with Germany - US Nukes in German bunkers - but always under US control. Same with Poland now requesting US Nukes be based there. Ukraine was never a Nuclear Power - the Soviet Union was. The Nukes STORED there were not given up - they were just taken back.

Ukraine had positive, physical control of 2,000~ nuclear warheads; the argument that they belonged to and were "manned" by the Soviets (Ukraine was a Soviet republic the USSR drew it's troops from) and that Ukraine "gave them back" is purely poltical semantics (on all levels the Soviets ceased to exist, Ukraine was surrendering weapons to a new nation and political state) physical possession is what matters, hence the Budapest Memorandum and inclusion of Ukraine as a signatory on the NPT, which flatly shows you both incorrect and errant.

The US-NATO weapons sharing policy is radically different than Soviet nuclear deployment doctorine; US policy makes it quite clear that the weapons are a shared strategic asset within the host nation, with the only limiting factor being the NPT, under which all nuclear systems must be under positive control of their respective nation.

US policy and doctorine allows and authorizes NATO ally use of US controlled weapons by said NATO host nation once the NPT is voided. Thus why one of the requirements of host nations is to maintain aircraft capable of carrying and dropping nuclear weapons.

The Soviets didn't share nuclear weapons with Ukraine; Ukraine wasn't a satellite state or autonomous republic, it was a union republic within the USSR and a constituent republic.

Ukraine ended up with the weapons and equipment it did after the collapse, because of it's status as a consituent republic and it's size/economic power; it was the largest republic outside of Russia proper.
 

jward

passin' thru
Clash Report
@clashreport
"Ukraine is on the brink"

"I see no possibility for Ukraine to win the war on the battlefield. Even if we can push the Russians back to the borders, it will not stop the war," says Vadym Skibitsky, deputy head of Ukraine’s military intelligence.

— Such wars can only end with treaties. Currently, both parties are fighting for the "most advantageous position". But substantive negotiations can begin no earlier than in the second half of 2025.

— Russia will initially continue the implementation of the plan to occupy the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. The success of the advance will be determined by when and where the Russians strike next.

— Russia is preparing for an offensive around the Kharkiv and Sumy regions in the northeast.

— Russian group, which is based on the border with Kharkiv, currently has 35,000 military personnel, but it is planned to increase it to 50,000-70,000 soldiers. This is "not enough" for an operation to capture a large city.

— The offensive of Russians will begin at the end of May - at the beginning of June.

— Now the army of the Russian Federation acts as a "single body" with a clear plan and under a single command.
 
Top