ALERT RUSSIA INVADES UKRAINE - Consolidated Thread

von Koehler

Has No Life - Lives on TB

Germany continues blocking arms exports to Ukraine due to new foreign ‘peace’ policy
By Nikolaus J. Kurmayer and Oliver Noyan | EURACTIV.com 0:24 (updated: 4:47)

Germany reiterated its refusal to send defensive weapons to Ukraine that according to Kyiv would help the country fend off a potential Russian invasion. This comes as part of a new German peace policy that aims at restricting arms exports and fostering peace via diplomacy.

German foreign minister Annalena Baerbock, speaking in Kyiv on a tour that next takes her to Moscow, said on Monday (18 January) she hoped tensions with Russia over Ukraine could be solved by diplomacy, but she warned that Moscow would suffer if it does attack its neighbour.

“Each further aggressive act will have a high price for Russia, economically, strategically, and politically,” Baerbock told reporters.

“Diplomacy is the only way,” she added, speaking next to her Ukrainian counterpart Dmytro Kuleba.
Asked about Germany’s refusal to send defensive weapons to Ukraine, as requested by the government in Kyiv, Baerbock said the government’s new restrictive arms export policy is “rooted in our history”.

Since taking over in December and as part of a larger approach, the German government has taken a more restrictive stance on the export of arms to foreign countries.

Baerbock emphasised that “different historical responsibilities” are the reason for this and that Germany will support Ukraine by other means.

“The most effective lever that we have to back Ukraine is the unequivocal and, above all, the unanimous commitment of the EU, the G7, and NATO,” Baerbock said.

Speaking alongside Baerbock, Kuleba said “each country will do what that country considers necessary and what corresponds to the national interests of that country when it comes to supporting Ukraine.”

While he tried to convince Baerbock of the necessity of defensive weapons to fend off a potential Russian aggression, he said Ukraine would be seeking to receive arms from other sources.

“We are working every day on this question,” Kuleba stated. “And our dialogue with Germany on this issue will continue,” he added.

Over the weekend, Kyiv’s ambassador to Berlin, Andrij Melnyk, said the Ukrainian people were “extremely disappointed” of the German position.

The US, UK, Lithuania and France have meanwhile pledged additional support, saying they would export new defensive weapons to Ukraine, among them Javelin anti-tank missiles, Stinger missiles, small arms, and boats. London already started ferrying anti-armour weaponry to Ukraine on Monday evening.

Germany’s arms export control law

The question of exporting defensive weapons to Ukraine has been a subject of intense debate in Germany.
During the election campaign last May, current Vice-Chancellor Robert Habeck said that Germany could hardly deny Ukraine defensive weapons, a declaration which prompted widespread controversy.

However, the new government has taken a more restrictive approach towards the export of weapons to third countries.
Germany exported €9.35 billion worth of arms exports with explicit government approval in 2021, an an all-time record. Of those, €4.2 billion were weapons of war, something that the new government aims to change with new legislation that limits arms exports.

“Decisions on arms exports need a restrictive and clear legal basis,” Sven Giegold, state secretary of the economy ministry, told taz on Monday (17 January). The economy ministry is responsible for approving or vetoing weapons exports.
The draft legislation, that aims at introducing procedural bases and control options for the shipment of arms, is planned to be released this summer.

The “peace policy” approach of the new German government was also outlined by SPD foreign policy spokesperson Nils Schmid.

“The common ground of this governing coalition is the commitment to peace, are preservation, promotion and, when necessary, restoration of peace,” Schmid said in the German Bundestag last week.

The envisioned arms-export-control law would ensure that “we live up to this promise,” Schmid added.
Baerbock flew to Russia on Monday evening, where she will discuss potential pathways to ease tensions in and around Ukraine with her Russian counterpart, Sergey Lavrov.

Topping the agenda is also the revival of the so-called Normandy format between Germany, France, Russia and Ukraine to ensure that Europe doesn’t lose its diplomatic grip over the negotiations on the conflict in its close neighbourhood.

Surely there must be some old 88's they can ship to Ukraine.
 

danielboon

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Doge

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Swedish Armed Forces says all 6 Russian landing craft have left the Baltic Sea.
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SR Ekot

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JUST NU: Samtliga sex ryska landstigningsfartyg har nu lämnat Östersjön, säger Försvarsmakten till Dagens Nyheter.


2:24 PM · Jan 18, 2022·
 

colonel holman

Veteran Member
also sounds like Germany, France, Ukraine, Russia working on reducing US role in negotiations, EU worried of being sidelined in US-Russia talks? Perhaps, with reference to the so-called Normandy format, mentioned above. That adds another layer of confusion and contention and some old-fashioned back-stabbing among friends and allies as things unfold. More worry.

Also, I am utterly appalled that MSM, all of them, are hardly mentioning this real hard news story that has existential implications. WTF?
 

Grumphau

Veteran Member
also sounds like Germany, France, Ukraine, Russia working on reducing US role in negotiations, EU worried of being sidelined in US-Russia talks? Perhaps, with reference to the so-called Normandy format, mentioned above. That adds another layer of confusion and contention and some old-fashioned back-stabbing among friends and allies as things unfold. More worry.

Also, I am utterly appalled that MSM, all of them, are hardly mentioning this real hard news story that has existential implications. WTF?
Fine, let EU handle it. Not sure what the problem is ;)
 

psychgirl

Has No Life - Lives on TB
also sounds like Germany, France, Ukraine, Russia working on reducing US role in negotiations, EU worried of being sidelined in US-Russia talks? Perhaps, with reference to the so-called Normandy format, mentioned above. That adds another layer of confusion and contention and some old-fashioned back-stabbing among friends and allies as things unfold. More worry.

Also, I am utterly appalled that MSM, all of them, are hardly mentioning this real hard news story that has existential implications. WTF?
I’ve not heard a single peep.
 

LoupGarou

Ancient Fuzzball
They really don't need drones for most of the infrastructure/anti-infrastructure planning. A crapload of it is open source:
Power, Water, Comms, Oil/Gas...

The drones would just tell you the current security status. The problem is that they would also alert your enemy that you are looking at those areas. Then again, maybe that is part of what is happening and groups are using drones to get the security to move around to increase security levels around where the drones have been spotted, and away from other places...
 

Techwreck

Veteran Member
Ukraine was a top priority and there were contingency plans in place for any developments.

Every contngency? Like Biden and Kirby said about Afghanistan withdrawal?



Surely the Russians will back off if the Brits threaten to move to "crisis mode".

The professional policy wonks and liars will try any posture, but I don't think this situation is quite their element.

I hope Blinken-tard has realized that the Russians are about to open a major can of whoop ass, and that when he meets Lavrov he best get serious about negotiating in good faith while that is still hopefully an option.
 

SageRock

Veteran Member
Mainstream political site, thehill.com, has this as its lead article right now, ahead of the usual focus on domestic political issues:

White House says Russia could launch attack in Ukraine 'at any point'

BY MORGAN CHALFANT - 01/18/22 01:36 PM EST

White House press secretary Jen Psaki told reporters on Tuesday that the U.S. believes that Russia could carry out an attack on Ukraine “at any point,” underscoring the immediacy of the threat.

“Our view is this is an extremely dangerous situation. We're now at a stage where Russia could at any point launch an attack in Ukraine,” Psaki told reporters at a briefing, adding later that her language was “more stark than we have been.”
Secretary of State Antony Blinken plans to meet with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on Friday as the U.S. seeks to ward off an invasion of Ukraine by Russia, which has amassed 100,000 troops on the border with Ukraine and recently moved forces to Belarus for joint military drills.

The meeting follows high-level diplomatic talks between U.S. and Russian officials and NATO in Europe last week. Blinken and Lavrov spoke by phone on Tuesday and agreed to meet.

Blinken plans to urge the Russians to deescalate the situation and take the diplomatic path offered by the U.S. and its allies, Psaki said, reiterating that there would be significant economic consequences should Russia choose to invade Ukraine.

“It is up to the Russians to determine which path they are going to take, and the consequences are going to be severe if they don’t take the diplomatic path,” Psaki said.

President Biden told Russian President Vladimir Putin on a video call in December that Russia would face sanctions if it invaded Ukraine and that the U.S. would move to bolster NATO’s eastern flank and increase military aid to Ukraine in the event of an invasion.

Psaki on Tuesday disputed reports that cutting Russia off from the SWIFT global banking system was off the table.

“No option is off the table, in our view,” she said.

As of last week, White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan said the U.S. intelligence community had not assessed whether Putin has made his mind up on invading Ukraine but nevertheless characterized the threat as high.
U.S. officials last week said they have evidence of Russia laying the groundwork for a false flag operation that could serve as a pretext for invading Ukraine.
 

mecoastie

Veteran Member
anyone got a guess as to how long it will take these ship to reach the black sea?
I wouldnt use that time as a gauge as to when the Russkies will attack though. Those only have a capacity of 10-20 armored vehicles and 300-350 men. Woudlnt matter much in the ukraine I dont think that is where they are going.
 

okie-carbine

Veteran Member
It looks to me like Russia has already made up it's mind about the upcoming talks....and it ain't good.


I have changed my mind again--war is back on.

Now that there is talk of them taking the capital, that changes things significantly. I figured they would stop at the river. It seems they are going for the whole enchilada, and probably a taco and burrito to go with it. Putin ain't messin' around.
 

mecoastie

Veteran Member
It looks to me like Russia has already made up it's mind about the upcoming talks....and it ain't good.


I have changed my mind again--war is back on.

Now that there is talk of them taking the capital, that changes things significantly. I figured they would stop at the river. It seems they are going for the whole enchilada, and probably a taco and burrito to go with it. Putin ain't messin' around.
I think Germany getting squirrelly may have made them realize they can get a bigger bite of the apple.
 
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