WTSR
Veteran Member
The only plan that is working for Zelensky is to sacrifice enough of his people to force the West in to giving Ukraine advanced western weapons.
ALERT RUSSIA INVADES UKRAINE - Consolidated Thread
- Thread starter danielboon
- Start date
The only plan that is working for Zelensky is to sacrifice enough of his people to force the West in to giving Ukraine advanced western weapons.
jward
passin' thru
NaqNab
@NaqNab
Ok European members of NATO are now trying to avoid war against Russia, but US which is on the other side of Globe is trying it's best to throw whole Europe in war against Russia, just to weaken Russia, once Russia is worn out then Jump in to finish the game and take the credit.
Not just giving them to him, but supporting them with ammunition, maintenance, training and targeting information.
WTSR
Veteran Member
As he holds his people hostage for ransom for Western Aid.
Does a complete, neutral Ukraine look so bad now?
Once Putin crossed the border, considering past events, that was effectively off the table no matter what he was saying publicly.
Posted for fair use.....
www.understandingwar.org
RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, JUNE 24
Jun 24, 2022 - Press ISW
Download the PDF
Kateryna Stepanenko, Mason Clark, George Barros, and Grace Mappes
June 24, 7:15 pm ETClick here to see ISW's interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
Ukrainian officials ordered a controlled withdrawal of troops from Severodonetsk on June 24. Luhansk Oblast Administration Head Serhiy Haidai announced that Ukrainian forces are withdrawing from “broken positions” in Severodonetsk to prevent further personnel losses and maintain a stronger defense elsewhere.[1] Severodonetsk Regional Military Administration Head Roman Vlasenko stated that several Ukrainian units remain in Severodonetsk as of June 24, but Ukrainian forces will complete the full withdrawal in “a few days.”[2] An unnamed Pentagon official noted that Ukrainian withdrawal from Severodonetsk will allow Ukrainian troops to secure better defensive positions and further wear down Russian manpower and equipment.[3] The Pentagon official noted that Russian forces pushing on Severodonetsk already show signs of “wear and tear” and “debilitating morale,” which will only further slow Russian offensive operations in Donbas. Russian forces have been attempting to seize Severodonetsk since at least March 13, exhausting their forces and equipment over three months.[4]
Ukrainian forces will likely maintain their defenses around Lysychansk and continue to exhaust Russian troops after the fall of Severodonetsk. Ukrainian forces will occupy higher ground in Lysychansk, which may allow them to repel Russian attacks for some time if the Russians are unable to encircle or isolate them. Russian forces in Severodonetsk will also need to complete river crossings from the east, which will require additional time and effort. Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) Head Leonid Pasechnik claimed that Russian forces will completely encircle Lysychansk in the next two or three days after fully interdicting Ukrainian ground lines of communications (GLOCs).[5] Russian forces have successfully secured access to Ukrainian GLOCs along the Hirske-Lysychansk highway by breaking through Hirske on June 24, but Russian forces will need to cut Ukrainian logistics routes from Bakhmut and Siversk to fully isolate Lysychansk. Russian forces are likely to face challenges completing a larger encirclement around Lysychansk due to a failed river crossing in Bilohorivka, northwest of Lysychansk, in early May. Ukrainian forces will likely conduct a deliberate withdrawal from Lysychansk if Russian forces threaten Ukrainian strongholds in the area.
Ukrainian intelligence warned that Russian forces will carry out false-flag attacks in Belarus to draw Belarusian forces into the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The Ukrainian Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported that Russian sabotage groups and mercenaries arrived in Mozyr, Belarus, to detonate apartment buildings and civilian infrastructure around the city.[6] The GUR noted that Russian saboteurs will follow a pattern similar to apartment bombings in Chechnya in the early 2000s. Ukrainian officials have previously reported on possible false-flag attacks in Belarus throughout the past four months.
Unidentified assailants resumed attacks against Russian military recruitment centers on June 24, indicating intensifying discontent with covert mobilization. Russian outlet Baza reported two incidents where unknown attackers threw Molotov Cocktails at military recruitment offices in Belgorod City and Perm on June 24.[7] Baza also reported that Belgorod Oblast Police started a search for four contract servicemen—one sergeant and three ordinary soldiers–who have deserted their military unit stationed in Belgorod Oblast.[8]
Key Takeaways
We do not report in detail on Russian war crimes because those activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We will continue to evaluate and report on the effects of these criminal activities on the Ukrainian military and population and specifically on combat in Ukrainian urban areas. We utterly condemn these Russian violations of the laws of armed conflict, Geneva Conventions, and humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.
Subordinate Main Effort—Southern Kharkiv, Donetsk, Luhansk Oblasts (Russian objective: Encircle Ukrainian forces in Eastern Ukraine and capture the entirety of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)
Russian forces continued to advance toward Lysychansk from the south and launched assaults on Severodonetsk. Russian forces continued to push on Lysychansk from Vovchoyarivka and Bila Hora in its southern outskirts on June 24.[9] Luhansk Oblast Administration Head Serhiy Haidai stated that Ukrainian forces are fighting their last battles in the city’s industrial zone before their full withdrawal.[10] Severodonetsk Regional State Administration Head Roman Vlasenko stated that Russian forces are launching assaults on settlements just southeast of Severodonetsk.[11] Ukrainian Defense Ministry Spokesperson Oleksandr Motuzyanyk reported that Russian forces intensified airstrikes throughout the Luhansk Oblast frontline and deployed S-300 anti-aircraft missiles systems to cover their air offensive group.[12] Combat footage indicates that Russian forces are using air attacks to destroy the remaining bridges and roads to Lysychansk.[13] Russia’s Defense Ministry also posted footage of Russian Central Military District Commander Alexander Lapin in occupied Stepove (just west of Luhansk City) on June 23.[14] Lapin’s arrival in Luhansk may indicate that the Kremlin is preparing to declare victory in Severodonetsk in the coming days.
Russian forces likely encircled some Ukrainian forces in Zolote and continued to attack Ukrainian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) along the T1303 Bakhmut-Lysychansk highway. Hirske District Head Oleksiy Babchenko reported that Russian forces occupied all settlements in Hirske district following a breakthrough from the east.[15] Hirske is situated just northeast of Ukrainian fortifications in Zolote, and Russian control of the settlement indicates that Russian forces have successfully bypassed and encircled Ukrainian positions. Babchenko said that Ukrainian officials ordered a withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from Zolote three to four days ago. The Russian Defense Ministry claimed that Russian forces encircled 1,800 Ukrainian servicemen in Zolote-Hirske, but ISW is unable to verify the number of Ukrainian servicemen remaining in the settlement.[16] Ukrainian forces also lost access to the T1303 Hirske-Lysychansk highway and adjacent roads, with the last humanitarian shipment arriving in Hirske on June 17.[17] Motuzyanyk reported that Russian forces are fighting in Mykolaivka and Berestove to interdict the adjacent T1303.[18]
Russian forces launched unsuccessful offensive operations north of Slovyansk and west of Izyum on June 24. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repulsed Russian assaults on Borhorodychne and Dolyna, on the E40 highway to Slovyansk.[19] Ukrainian Defense Ministry Spokesperson Oleksandr Motuzyanyk noted that Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked Kurulka and Virnopillya in an effort to set conditions for a renewed offensive operation on Barvinkove, approximately 35 km southwest of Izyum.[20] Motuzyanyk added that Russian forces are accumulating additional reserves and deployed a battery of Uragan MLRS to Novoselivka, a settlement northwest of Lyman, to resume offensives on Slovyansk.[21]
Russian forces will likely prioritize completing the operational encirclement of Lysychansk from Lyman in the future, rather than conducting a ground assault on Slovyansk. Russian forces continue to shell Siversk (approximately 28 km northwest of Lysychansk), likely in an effort to interdict the remaining Ukrainian GLOCs to Lysychansk.[22] Russian milblogger Yuri Kotyenok noted that Russian forces will attempt to seize Lysychansk before mid-July ahead of the rainy season, which would complicate Russian advances due to muddy roads.[23] Kotyenok added that Russian forces do not have enough manpower to encircle heavily fortified Slovyansk and Kramatorsk, or advance north of Avdiivka. Russian forces will need recovery time to initiate advances on Slovyansk, following the grinding campaign to capture Severodonetsk and Lysychansk.
Continued.....
Institute for the Study of War
Ukrainian officials ordered a controlled withdrawal of troops from Severodonetsk on June 24. Luhansk Oblast Administration Head Serhiy Haidai announced that Ukrainian forces are withdrawing from “broken positions” in Severodonetsk to prevent further per
RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, JUNE 24
Jun 24, 2022 - Press ISW
Download the PDFKateryna Stepanenko, Mason Clark, George Barros, and Grace Mappes
June 24, 7:15 pm ET
Ukrainian officials ordered a controlled withdrawal of troops from Severodonetsk on June 24. Luhansk Oblast Administration Head Serhiy Haidai announced that Ukrainian forces are withdrawing from “broken positions” in Severodonetsk to prevent further personnel losses and maintain a stronger defense elsewhere.[1] Severodonetsk Regional Military Administration Head Roman Vlasenko stated that several Ukrainian units remain in Severodonetsk as of June 24, but Ukrainian forces will complete the full withdrawal in “a few days.”[2] An unnamed Pentagon official noted that Ukrainian withdrawal from Severodonetsk will allow Ukrainian troops to secure better defensive positions and further wear down Russian manpower and equipment.[3] The Pentagon official noted that Russian forces pushing on Severodonetsk already show signs of “wear and tear” and “debilitating morale,” which will only further slow Russian offensive operations in Donbas. Russian forces have been attempting to seize Severodonetsk since at least March 13, exhausting their forces and equipment over three months.[4]
Ukrainian forces will likely maintain their defenses around Lysychansk and continue to exhaust Russian troops after the fall of Severodonetsk. Ukrainian forces will occupy higher ground in Lysychansk, which may allow them to repel Russian attacks for some time if the Russians are unable to encircle or isolate them. Russian forces in Severodonetsk will also need to complete river crossings from the east, which will require additional time and effort. Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) Head Leonid Pasechnik claimed that Russian forces will completely encircle Lysychansk in the next two or three days after fully interdicting Ukrainian ground lines of communications (GLOCs).[5] Russian forces have successfully secured access to Ukrainian GLOCs along the Hirske-Lysychansk highway by breaking through Hirske on June 24, but Russian forces will need to cut Ukrainian logistics routes from Bakhmut and Siversk to fully isolate Lysychansk. Russian forces are likely to face challenges completing a larger encirclement around Lysychansk due to a failed river crossing in Bilohorivka, northwest of Lysychansk, in early May. Ukrainian forces will likely conduct a deliberate withdrawal from Lysychansk if Russian forces threaten Ukrainian strongholds in the area.
Ukrainian intelligence warned that Russian forces will carry out false-flag attacks in Belarus to draw Belarusian forces into the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The Ukrainian Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported that Russian sabotage groups and mercenaries arrived in Mozyr, Belarus, to detonate apartment buildings and civilian infrastructure around the city.[6] The GUR noted that Russian saboteurs will follow a pattern similar to apartment bombings in Chechnya in the early 2000s. Ukrainian officials have previously reported on possible false-flag attacks in Belarus throughout the past four months.
Unidentified assailants resumed attacks against Russian military recruitment centers on June 24, indicating intensifying discontent with covert mobilization. Russian outlet Baza reported two incidents where unknown attackers threw Molotov Cocktails at military recruitment offices in Belgorod City and Perm on June 24.[7] Baza also reported that Belgorod Oblast Police started a search for four contract servicemen—one sergeant and three ordinary soldiers–who have deserted their military unit stationed in Belgorod Oblast.[8]
Key Takeaways
- Russian forces continued to drive north to Lysychansk and have likely encircled Ukrainian troops in Hirske-Zolote.
- Ukrainian officials announced that Ukrainian forces are fighting their last battles in the industrial zone of Severodonetsk before withdrawing from the city.
- Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive operations west of Izyum and north of Slovyansk. Russian forces will likely prioritize encircling Ukrainian troops in Lysychansk and interdicting remaining GLOCs northwest of the city before resuming a full-scale offensive operation on Slovyansk.
- Ukrainian forces are continuing to launch counteroffensive operations along the Kherson-Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border and are threatening Russian forces in Kherson City.
- Ukrainian partisans continued to attack Russian collaborators in Kherson City.
We do not report in detail on Russian war crimes because those activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We will continue to evaluate and report on the effects of these criminal activities on the Ukrainian military and population and specifically on combat in Ukrainian urban areas. We utterly condemn these Russian violations of the laws of armed conflict, Geneva Conventions, and humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.
- Main Effort—Eastern Ukraine (comprised of one subordinate and three supporting efforts);
- Subordinate Main Effort—Encirclement of Ukrainian troops in the cauldron between Izyum and Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts
- Supporting Effort 1—Kharkiv City;
- Supporting Effort 2—Southern Axis;
- Activities in Russian-occupied Areas
Subordinate Main Effort—Southern Kharkiv, Donetsk, Luhansk Oblasts (Russian objective: Encircle Ukrainian forces in Eastern Ukraine and capture the entirety of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)
Russian forces continued to advance toward Lysychansk from the south and launched assaults on Severodonetsk. Russian forces continued to push on Lysychansk from Vovchoyarivka and Bila Hora in its southern outskirts on June 24.[9] Luhansk Oblast Administration Head Serhiy Haidai stated that Ukrainian forces are fighting their last battles in the city’s industrial zone before their full withdrawal.[10] Severodonetsk Regional State Administration Head Roman Vlasenko stated that Russian forces are launching assaults on settlements just southeast of Severodonetsk.[11] Ukrainian Defense Ministry Spokesperson Oleksandr Motuzyanyk reported that Russian forces intensified airstrikes throughout the Luhansk Oblast frontline and deployed S-300 anti-aircraft missiles systems to cover their air offensive group.[12] Combat footage indicates that Russian forces are using air attacks to destroy the remaining bridges and roads to Lysychansk.[13] Russia’s Defense Ministry also posted footage of Russian Central Military District Commander Alexander Lapin in occupied Stepove (just west of Luhansk City) on June 23.[14] Lapin’s arrival in Luhansk may indicate that the Kremlin is preparing to declare victory in Severodonetsk in the coming days.
Russian forces likely encircled some Ukrainian forces in Zolote and continued to attack Ukrainian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) along the T1303 Bakhmut-Lysychansk highway. Hirske District Head Oleksiy Babchenko reported that Russian forces occupied all settlements in Hirske district following a breakthrough from the east.[15] Hirske is situated just northeast of Ukrainian fortifications in Zolote, and Russian control of the settlement indicates that Russian forces have successfully bypassed and encircled Ukrainian positions. Babchenko said that Ukrainian officials ordered a withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from Zolote three to four days ago. The Russian Defense Ministry claimed that Russian forces encircled 1,800 Ukrainian servicemen in Zolote-Hirske, but ISW is unable to verify the number of Ukrainian servicemen remaining in the settlement.[16] Ukrainian forces also lost access to the T1303 Hirske-Lysychansk highway and adjacent roads, with the last humanitarian shipment arriving in Hirske on June 17.[17] Motuzyanyk reported that Russian forces are fighting in Mykolaivka and Berestove to interdict the adjacent T1303.[18]
Russian forces launched unsuccessful offensive operations north of Slovyansk and west of Izyum on June 24. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repulsed Russian assaults on Borhorodychne and Dolyna, on the E40 highway to Slovyansk.[19] Ukrainian Defense Ministry Spokesperson Oleksandr Motuzyanyk noted that Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked Kurulka and Virnopillya in an effort to set conditions for a renewed offensive operation on Barvinkove, approximately 35 km southwest of Izyum.[20] Motuzyanyk added that Russian forces are accumulating additional reserves and deployed a battery of Uragan MLRS to Novoselivka, a settlement northwest of Lyman, to resume offensives on Slovyansk.[21]
Russian forces will likely prioritize completing the operational encirclement of Lysychansk from Lyman in the future, rather than conducting a ground assault on Slovyansk. Russian forces continue to shell Siversk (approximately 28 km northwest of Lysychansk), likely in an effort to interdict the remaining Ukrainian GLOCs to Lysychansk.[22] Russian milblogger Yuri Kotyenok noted that Russian forces will attempt to seize Lysychansk before mid-July ahead of the rainy season, which would complicate Russian advances due to muddy roads.[23] Kotyenok added that Russian forces do not have enough manpower to encircle heavily fortified Slovyansk and Kramatorsk, or advance north of Avdiivka. Russian forces will need recovery time to initiate advances on Slovyansk, following the grinding campaign to capture Severodonetsk and Lysychansk.
Continued.....
Continued.....
Supporting Effort #1—Kharkiv City (Russian objective: Withdraw forces to the north and defend ground lines of communication (GLOCs) to Izyum)
Russian forces focused on preventing Ukrainian advances toward the international border and from threatening Russian forces operating in the Izyum-Slovyansk area.[24] Russian forces continued heavy shelling of settlements northeast and southeast of Kharkiv City and launched two Iskander ballistic missiles at the city on June 24.[25] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces intensified the use of sabotage and reconnaissance groups in settlements and are attempting to resume offensive operations to improve tactical positions beyond the international border.[26] Ukrainian Defense Ministry Spokesperson Oleksandr Motuzyanyk noted that Russian forces began accumulating personnel and engineering equipment in Velykyi Burlyk, a settlement on Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) in northeastern Kharkiv Oblast, likely in a continuing effort to maintain Russian logistics routes to Izyum and Luhansk Oblast.[27]
Supporting Effort #2—Southern Axis (Objective: Defend Kherson and Zaporizhia Oblasts against Ukrainian counterattacks)
Russian forces did not conduct offensive operations in Kherson Oblast amidst Ukrainian counteroffensives along the Kherson-Mykolaiv and Kherson-Dnipropetrovsk Oblast borders on June 24. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that half of the Russian forces retreated to Olhine, just south of the Kherson-Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border, following a successful Ukrainian counteroffensive in the area.[28] Russian forces continued to launch airstrikes and fire artillery at Ukrainian positions on the western bank of the Inhulets River.[29] Ukrainian Defense Ministry Spokesperson Oleksandr Motuzyanyk also noted that Russian forces conducted artillery strikes on settlements just 20 km northwest of Kherson City in an effort to suppress Ukrainian counteroffensives toward the city.[30] Russian outlets reported that Head of the Russian National Guard (Rosguardia) Viktor Zolotov arrived in an unspecified Kherson Oblast settlement on June 24 to distribute awards to Russian servicemen, although the full intentions of his visit remain unclear.[31]
Activity in Russian-occupied Areas (Russian objective: Consolidate administrative control of occupied areas; set conditions for potential annexation into the Russian Federation or some other future political arrangement of Moscow’s choosing)
Ukrainian partisans continued to target Russian collaborators in Kherson City and are complicating Russian efforts to establish local occupation administrations. Ukrainian and Russian sources confirmed that Ukrainian partisans detonated an improvised explosive device and killed the occupation director of youth policy management Dmytro Savluchenko in Kherson City on June 24.[32] The Ukrainian Southern Operational Command noted that Kherson Oblast residents also refuse to collaborate with Russian occupation authorities and are slowing down Russian preparations for a referendum on September 11.[33] Ukrainian partisan activity may discourage other Russian collaborators from accepting local administration positions and further strain Russian occupation personnel shortages.
Ukrainian civilians continue to flee Russian occupied settlements in southern Ukraine. Melitopol Mayor Ivan Fedorov estimated that over 35,000 Melitopol residents left the city last month.[34] ISW previously reported that Enerhodar residents are also leaving the city to avoid collaborating with Russian officials.[35]
[1] Сергій Гайдай/ Луганська ОДА (ОВА) https://suspilne dot media/253500-zsu-dovedetsa-vijti-z-severodonecka-na-bils-ukripleni-pozicii-gajdaj/; Сергій Гайдай/ Луганська ОДА (ОВА)
[2] Военный Осведомитель; https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-06-24-2...
[3] View: https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1540320014200340480
[4] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign...
[5] РОДИОН_МИРОШНИК https://www.kp dot ru/daily/27409/4607409/
[6] https://gur.gov dot ua/content/kreml-planuie-pidryv-zhytlovykh-budynkiv-u-mozyri-shchob-vtiahnuty-bilorus-u-viinu-proty-ukrainy.html;Головне управління розвідки МО України; ⚔БРАТЧУК
[7] Baza Baza
[8] Baza
[9] View: https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/347169520929466;
Рыбарь; Vоенкор Котенок Z; Сергій Гайдай/ Луганська ОДА (ОВА)
[10] Сергій Гайдай/ Луганська ОДА (ОВА)
[11] https://www dot radiosvoboda.org/a/news-vidstup-zsu-z-lysychanska-syevyerodonetsk/31913046.html; Политика Страны
[12] https://www dot ukrinform.ua/rubric-ato/3514341-vorog-mae-pevni-takticni-uspihi-na-okremih-dilankah-zavdaki-perevazi-v-artilerii-motuzanik.html; Сергій Гайдай/ Луганська ОДА (ОВА)
[13] Сергій Гайдай/ Луганська ОДА (ОВА)
[14] https://vk.com/mil?z=video-133441491_456261422%2Fd994b3b3b5e2f47504%2Fpl...; View: https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/status/1540366630206808064
[15] Новини Еспресо.TV; SPRAVDI
[16] Минобороны России Vоенкор Котенок Z
[17] Сергій Гайдай/ Луганська ОДА (ОВА)
[18] https://www dot ukrinform.ua/rubric-ato/3514341-vorog-mae-pevni-takticni-uspihi-na-okremih-dilankah-zavdaki-perevazi-v-artilerii-motuzanik.html; https://www dot radiosvoboda.org/a/news-vidstup-zsu-z-lysychanska-syevyerodonetsk/31913046.html; Политика Страны
[19] View: https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/347169520929466;
https://www dot ukrinform.ua/rubric-ato/3514341-vorog-mae-pevni-takticni-uspihi-na-okremih-dilankah-zavdaki-perevazi-v-artilerii-motuzanik.html
[20] https://www dot ukrinform.ua/rubric-ato/3514341-vorog-mae-pevni-takticni-uspihi-na-okremih-dilankah-zavdaki-perevazi-v-artilerii-motuzanik.html
[21] Ukrainian sources likely incorrectly reported that Motuzyanyk referred to Novoselivka in Kharkiv Oblast. Motuzyanyk likely referred to Novoselivka in northeastern Donetsk Oblast, sitauted near Lyman, Sviatohisrk, and Kharkiv-Donetsk Oblast border. https://www dot ukrinform.ua/rubric-ato/3514341-vorog-mae-pevni-takticni-uspihi-na-okremih-dilankah-zavdaki-perevazi-v-artilerii-motuzanik.html
[22] View: https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/347169520929466
[23] Vоенкор Котенок Z; Vоенкор Котенок Z
[24] View: https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/347169520929466
; Vоенкор Котенок Z; Рыбарь
[25] https://www dot radiosvoboda.org/a/novyny-pryazovya-mykolayiv-obstrili-senkevych/31911643.html?fbclid=IwAR2trXw_eKhzEEPeMQbbP8auGDCTNaP9YcIzFyNbm5hiS0gVsoKPcOnIGhE; Политика Страны View: https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/346810547632030;
Дергачівська міська рада
[26] View: https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/346810547632030;
View: https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/347169520929466
[27] https://www dot ukrinform.ua/rubric-ato/3514348-rosiani-namagautsa-otociti-ukrainski-vijska-v-rajoni-lisicanska-minoboroni.html; https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-ass...
[28] View: https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/347169520929466
[29] View: https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/346810547632030;
View: https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=462265935735111;
View: https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=544942880473798
[30] https://www dot ukrinform.ua/rubric-ato/3514348-rosiani-namagautsa-otociti-ukrainski-vijska-v-rajoni-lisicanska-minoboroni.html
[31] https://www dot gazeta.ru/army/news/2022/06/24/17996228.shtml; Vоенкор Котенок Z
[32] https://sprotyv.mod.gov dot ua/2022/06/24/v-hersoni-pidirvaly-shhe-odnogo-kolaboranta/; https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/06/24/car-bomb-kills-russia-installe...
[33] View: https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=462265935735111
[34] https://www dot unian dot net/war/v-melitopole-rossiyane-gotovyatsya-k-referendumu-sozdali-shtab-novosti-vtorzheniya-rossii-na-ukrainu-11877771 dot html; http://ukrstat dot gov dot ua/druk/publicat/kat_u/2021/zb/05/zb_chuselnist%202021 dot pdf
[35] https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-ass...
Tags
Ukraine Project
File Attachments:
DraftUkraineCoTJune24,2022.png
Luhansk Battle Map Draft June 24,2022.png
Kherson-Mykolaiv Battle Map Draft June 24,2022.png
Severodonetsk Battle Map Draft June 24,2022.png
Kharkiv Battle Map Draft June 24,2022.png
Supporting Effort #1—Kharkiv City (Russian objective: Withdraw forces to the north and defend ground lines of communication (GLOCs) to Izyum)
Russian forces focused on preventing Ukrainian advances toward the international border and from threatening Russian forces operating in the Izyum-Slovyansk area.[24] Russian forces continued heavy shelling of settlements northeast and southeast of Kharkiv City and launched two Iskander ballistic missiles at the city on June 24.[25] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces intensified the use of sabotage and reconnaissance groups in settlements and are attempting to resume offensive operations to improve tactical positions beyond the international border.[26] Ukrainian Defense Ministry Spokesperson Oleksandr Motuzyanyk noted that Russian forces began accumulating personnel and engineering equipment in Velykyi Burlyk, a settlement on Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) in northeastern Kharkiv Oblast, likely in a continuing effort to maintain Russian logistics routes to Izyum and Luhansk Oblast.[27]
Supporting Effort #2—Southern Axis (Objective: Defend Kherson and Zaporizhia Oblasts against Ukrainian counterattacks)
Russian forces did not conduct offensive operations in Kherson Oblast amidst Ukrainian counteroffensives along the Kherson-Mykolaiv and Kherson-Dnipropetrovsk Oblast borders on June 24. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that half of the Russian forces retreated to Olhine, just south of the Kherson-Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border, following a successful Ukrainian counteroffensive in the area.[28] Russian forces continued to launch airstrikes and fire artillery at Ukrainian positions on the western bank of the Inhulets River.[29] Ukrainian Defense Ministry Spokesperson Oleksandr Motuzyanyk also noted that Russian forces conducted artillery strikes on settlements just 20 km northwest of Kherson City in an effort to suppress Ukrainian counteroffensives toward the city.[30] Russian outlets reported that Head of the Russian National Guard (Rosguardia) Viktor Zolotov arrived in an unspecified Kherson Oblast settlement on June 24 to distribute awards to Russian servicemen, although the full intentions of his visit remain unclear.[31]
Activity in Russian-occupied Areas (Russian objective: Consolidate administrative control of occupied areas; set conditions for potential annexation into the Russian Federation or some other future political arrangement of Moscow’s choosing)
Ukrainian partisans continued to target Russian collaborators in Kherson City and are complicating Russian efforts to establish local occupation administrations. Ukrainian and Russian sources confirmed that Ukrainian partisans detonated an improvised explosive device and killed the occupation director of youth policy management Dmytro Savluchenko in Kherson City on June 24.[32] The Ukrainian Southern Operational Command noted that Kherson Oblast residents also refuse to collaborate with Russian occupation authorities and are slowing down Russian preparations for a referendum on September 11.[33] Ukrainian partisan activity may discourage other Russian collaborators from accepting local administration positions and further strain Russian occupation personnel shortages.
Ukrainian civilians continue to flee Russian occupied settlements in southern Ukraine. Melitopol Mayor Ivan Fedorov estimated that over 35,000 Melitopol residents left the city last month.[34] ISW previously reported that Enerhodar residents are also leaving the city to avoid collaborating with Russian officials.[35]
[1] Сергій Гайдай/ Луганська ОДА (ОВА) https://suspilne dot media/253500-zsu-dovedetsa-vijti-z-severodonecka-na-bils-ukripleni-pozicii-gajdaj/; Сергій Гайдай/ Луганська ОДА (ОВА)
[2] Военный Осведомитель; https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-06-24-2...
[3] View: https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1540320014200340480
[4] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign...
[5] РОДИОН_МИРОШНИК https://www.kp dot ru/daily/27409/4607409/
[6] https://gur.gov dot ua/content/kreml-planuie-pidryv-zhytlovykh-budynkiv-u-mozyri-shchob-vtiahnuty-bilorus-u-viinu-proty-ukrainy.html;Головне управління розвідки МО України; ⚔БРАТЧУК
[7] Baza Baza
[8] Baza
[9] View: https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/347169520929466;
Рыбарь; Vоенкор Котенок Z; Сергій Гайдай/ Луганська ОДА (ОВА)
[10] Сергій Гайдай/ Луганська ОДА (ОВА)
[11] https://www dot radiosvoboda.org/a/news-vidstup-zsu-z-lysychanska-syevyerodonetsk/31913046.html; Политика Страны
[12] https://www dot ukrinform.ua/rubric-ato/3514341-vorog-mae-pevni-takticni-uspihi-na-okremih-dilankah-zavdaki-perevazi-v-artilerii-motuzanik.html; Сергій Гайдай/ Луганська ОДА (ОВА)
[13] Сергій Гайдай/ Луганська ОДА (ОВА)
[14] https://vk.com/mil?z=video-133441491_456261422%2Fd994b3b3b5e2f47504%2Fpl...; View: https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/status/1540366630206808064
[15] Новини Еспресо.TV; SPRAVDI
[16] Минобороны России Vоенкор Котенок Z
[17] Сергій Гайдай/ Луганська ОДА (ОВА)
[18] https://www dot ukrinform.ua/rubric-ato/3514341-vorog-mae-pevni-takticni-uspihi-na-okremih-dilankah-zavdaki-perevazi-v-artilerii-motuzanik.html; https://www dot radiosvoboda.org/a/news-vidstup-zsu-z-lysychanska-syevyerodonetsk/31913046.html; Политика Страны
[19] View: https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/347169520929466;
https://www dot ukrinform.ua/rubric-ato/3514341-vorog-mae-pevni-takticni-uspihi-na-okremih-dilankah-zavdaki-perevazi-v-artilerii-motuzanik.html
[20] https://www dot ukrinform.ua/rubric-ato/3514341-vorog-mae-pevni-takticni-uspihi-na-okremih-dilankah-zavdaki-perevazi-v-artilerii-motuzanik.html
[21] Ukrainian sources likely incorrectly reported that Motuzyanyk referred to Novoselivka in Kharkiv Oblast. Motuzyanyk likely referred to Novoselivka in northeastern Donetsk Oblast, sitauted near Lyman, Sviatohisrk, and Kharkiv-Donetsk Oblast border. https://www dot ukrinform.ua/rubric-ato/3514341-vorog-mae-pevni-takticni-uspihi-na-okremih-dilankah-zavdaki-perevazi-v-artilerii-motuzanik.html
[22] View: https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/347169520929466
[23] Vоенкор Котенок Z; Vоенкор Котенок Z
[24] View: https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/347169520929466
; Vоенкор Котенок Z; Рыбарь
[25] https://www dot radiosvoboda.org/a/novyny-pryazovya-mykolayiv-obstrili-senkevych/31911643.html?fbclid=IwAR2trXw_eKhzEEPeMQbbP8auGDCTNaP9YcIzFyNbm5hiS0gVsoKPcOnIGhE; Политика Страны View: https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/346810547632030;
Дергачівська міська рада
[26] View: https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/346810547632030;
View: https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/347169520929466
[27] https://www dot ukrinform.ua/rubric-ato/3514348-rosiani-namagautsa-otociti-ukrainski-vijska-v-rajoni-lisicanska-minoboroni.html; https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-ass...
[28] View: https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/347169520929466
[29] View: https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/346810547632030;
View: https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=462265935735111;
View: https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=544942880473798
[30] https://www dot ukrinform.ua/rubric-ato/3514348-rosiani-namagautsa-otociti-ukrainski-vijska-v-rajoni-lisicanska-minoboroni.html
[31] https://www dot gazeta.ru/army/news/2022/06/24/17996228.shtml; Vоенкор Котенок Z
[32] https://sprotyv.mod.gov dot ua/2022/06/24/v-hersoni-pidirvaly-shhe-odnogo-kolaboranta/; https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/06/24/car-bomb-kills-russia-installe...
[33] View: https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=462265935735111
[34] https://www dot unian dot net/war/v-melitopole-rossiyane-gotovyatsya-k-referendumu-sozdali-shtab-novosti-vtorzheniya-rossii-na-ukrainu-11877771 dot html; http://ukrstat dot gov dot ua/druk/publicat/kat_u/2021/zb/05/zb_chuselnist%202021 dot pdf
[35] https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-ass...
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jamestown.org
Can Russia Repeat the ‘Crimea Scenario’ in Ukraine’s Kherson Region?
Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 19 Issue: 94
By: Vadim Shtepa
June 24, 2022 04:23 PM Age: 7 hours
As a result of its full-scale re-invasion of Ukraine launched on February 24, Russia presently occupies most of Kherson Oblast, a southern region with a million inhabitants that borders on Crimea. In fact, Russian troops captured Kherson with a strike from the Crimean Peninsula, which Moscow illegally annexed back in 2014. Now, some observers predict that Kherson will soon undergo the same fate that Crimea did eight years earlier—even while the Moscow-backed quasi-statelets of Donetsk and Luhansk “people’s republics” have yet to be officially admitted into the Russian Federation.
The strategic importance of the Kherson region lies in the fact that it physically links the Crimean Peninsula with the continent. So without control over Kherson, Ukraine’s objective of “de-occupying Crimea” becomes that much less realistic. In addition, Crimea is vitally dependent on Kherson Oblast for its water: the North Crimean Canal, which carries fresh water from the Dnieper River to the peninsula, originates there. The blocking of this canal in 2014 by the Ukrainian authorities caused numerous problems for annexed Crimea, and today Russia is striving to further secure its “returned” territories. But this necessitates an expansion of the 2014 annexation. Finally, the Kherson region is an important springboard for a possible strike on Odesa, Russian control of which would finally cut Ukraine entirely off from the Black Sea.
Russia is justifying plans to annex this region with historical arguments, reaching back beyond the Soviet era to the tsarist period. The doctrine of “historical Russia,” which has become popular with Russian propagandists, pointedly conflates the modern-day Russian Federation with the Russian Empire of the 18th–early 20th centuries. It considers the borders of the historical Russian entity as “ours” and ignores all nation-state changes recognized by international law that occurred in the post-tsarist and post-Soviet eras.
In 1775, Empress Catherine II ordered the liquidation of the self-governing center of the Ukrainian Cossacks—the Zaporozhian Sich. After that, the large Black Sea region was named “Novorossiya” (“New Russia”), and Kherson, founded in 1778, with its shipyard, was even considered a “southern St. Petersburg” (Expert.ru, June 5). It should be noted that the term “Novorossiya,” which deliberately connoted an expansion of Russian territories, was revived by Moscow propaganda in 2014, after the annexation of Crimea and the creation of the “people’s republics” in Donbas.
War-time visits of high-ranking Moscow officials to Kherson and other occupied Ukrainian regions denote the symbolic importance of their capture. “Russia has come here forever,” said Andrei Turchak, the head of the ruling United Russia party (RIA Novosti, May 6). Kherson, as well as Melitopol and Berdyansk (captured cities in neighboring Zaporizhzhia Oblast), were also visited by Sergei Kiriyenko, the de facto leader of the Russian presidential administration (RIA Novosti, June 8). According to some insider sources, Kiriyenko is working on creating a positive propaganda image of “Russia after the war,” presumably hoping that the conflict will end in a victory for the Kremlin (Meduza, June 8).
But Moscow-based analysts clearly overestimated the “pro-Russian” sentiments of the local population before the 2022 invasion, likely assuming that, like in Crimea in 2014, the majority Russian-speaking population had been subjected to massive propaganda indoctrination via Moscow TV channels for years. However, in Kherson, local residents expressed no joy about “returning to their native harbor.” And while most of them are, in fact, Russian-speaking, they tended to strongly associate themselves politically with Ukraine.
Since the opening days of the occupation of Kherson and neighboring cities, mass protest rallies have continued there, which Russian troops have sometimes had to disperse using firearms (Region.Expert, June 13). In Kherson, in fact, a dual power has arisen. The regional administration is headed by collaborators appointed by the occupying forces, who want to symbolically consolidate Russian power by erecting a monument to Tsar Catherine II (Pravda.com.ua, June 18). Whereas, the mayor of the city remains Igor Kolykhayev, elected in 2020; he continues to manage the municipal economy and says Kherson residents are awaiting liberation by Ukrainian troops (RBC, May 23).
As for everyday life, the situation in Kherson is approaching a humanitarian catastrophe. All Ukrainian commercial networks, banks and pharmacies are closed. Public utilities and social services do not work. Almost all trade is carried out in street markets. However, despite the invaders’ desire to introduce the Russian ruble, hryvnia banknotes remains in circulation, and even electronic payments using the Ukrainian banking system go through. Ukrainian communication systems have also proven to be surprisingly stable, and attempts by the occupiers to switch to Russian standards are failing. But Russian censorship is already at work (see EDM, June 23), turning into outright terror: hundreds of people dissatisfied with the occupation are being detained and kidnapped (Postimees.ee, June 16). Russian forces have set up “filtration camps” and rob local residents trying to flee to territories controlled by the Ukrainian army (Svoboda.org, June 17).
However, many Kherson residents and locals of other occupied cities are not ready to tolerate this outrage and are switching to the tactics of guerilla resistance (Apostrophe.ua, June 13). Partisan activities are on the rise (The Economist, June 5; see EDM, May 2), including the attempted assassination of the Russian-appointed head of the regional Kherson prison system (Svoboda.org, June 18).
Perhaps this unexpected popular rebuff to the occupation forced the collaborating authorities into slowing down their plans to hold a referendum on incorporating the occupied regions into Russia. Unlike the Crimean referendum in March 2014, which the invaders tried to hold as quickly as possible in an attempt to legitimize the annexation, today the Kherson occupation administration says that the issue of a referendum “is not on the agenda” (RIA Novosti, June 4). In a clear indication of how unpopular the idea of joining Russia is among Kherson residents: an attempt to distribute Russian passports attracted only 23 takers, that is, only the collaborating officials themselves (Svoboda.org, June 11). Undoubtedly, any eventual referendum in Kherson will be as rigged as the one held in Crimea; and in preparation, the occupiers have already stolen regional voter lists (TSN, June 20).
Mass deliveries of modern weapons to the defending Ukrainian army are capable of overcoming this expanding tragedy. However, although the Lend-Lease program in the United States has been approved, sufficiently large deliveries have not yet begun (Interfax, June 18). During World War II, US Lend-Lease helped the Soviet Union withstand the invasion of Nazi Germany. But today, Vladimir Putin’s Russia, in an effort to restore the empire and destroy the independence of neighboring countries, has itself become reminiscent of its historical foe.
Can Russia Repeat the ‘Crimea Scenario’ in Ukraine’s Kherson Region?
As a result of its full-scale re-invasion of Ukraine launched on February 24, Russia presently occupies most of Kherson Oblast, a southern region with a million inhabitants that borders on Crimea. In fact, Russian troops captured Kherson with a strike from the Crimean Peninsula, which Moscow...
Can Russia Repeat the ‘Crimea Scenario’ in Ukraine’s Kherson Region?
Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 19 Issue: 94
By: Vadim Shtepa
June 24, 2022 04:23 PM Age: 7 hours
As a result of its full-scale re-invasion of Ukraine launched on February 24, Russia presently occupies most of Kherson Oblast, a southern region with a million inhabitants that borders on Crimea. In fact, Russian troops captured Kherson with a strike from the Crimean Peninsula, which Moscow illegally annexed back in 2014. Now, some observers predict that Kherson will soon undergo the same fate that Crimea did eight years earlier—even while the Moscow-backed quasi-statelets of Donetsk and Luhansk “people’s republics” have yet to be officially admitted into the Russian Federation.
The strategic importance of the Kherson region lies in the fact that it physically links the Crimean Peninsula with the continent. So without control over Kherson, Ukraine’s objective of “de-occupying Crimea” becomes that much less realistic. In addition, Crimea is vitally dependent on Kherson Oblast for its water: the North Crimean Canal, which carries fresh water from the Dnieper River to the peninsula, originates there. The blocking of this canal in 2014 by the Ukrainian authorities caused numerous problems for annexed Crimea, and today Russia is striving to further secure its “returned” territories. But this necessitates an expansion of the 2014 annexation. Finally, the Kherson region is an important springboard for a possible strike on Odesa, Russian control of which would finally cut Ukraine entirely off from the Black Sea.
Russia is justifying plans to annex this region with historical arguments, reaching back beyond the Soviet era to the tsarist period. The doctrine of “historical Russia,” which has become popular with Russian propagandists, pointedly conflates the modern-day Russian Federation with the Russian Empire of the 18th–early 20th centuries. It considers the borders of the historical Russian entity as “ours” and ignores all nation-state changes recognized by international law that occurred in the post-tsarist and post-Soviet eras.
In 1775, Empress Catherine II ordered the liquidation of the self-governing center of the Ukrainian Cossacks—the Zaporozhian Sich. After that, the large Black Sea region was named “Novorossiya” (“New Russia”), and Kherson, founded in 1778, with its shipyard, was even considered a “southern St. Petersburg” (Expert.ru, June 5). It should be noted that the term “Novorossiya,” which deliberately connoted an expansion of Russian territories, was revived by Moscow propaganda in 2014, after the annexation of Crimea and the creation of the “people’s republics” in Donbas.
War-time visits of high-ranking Moscow officials to Kherson and other occupied Ukrainian regions denote the symbolic importance of their capture. “Russia has come here forever,” said Andrei Turchak, the head of the ruling United Russia party (RIA Novosti, May 6). Kherson, as well as Melitopol and Berdyansk (captured cities in neighboring Zaporizhzhia Oblast), were also visited by Sergei Kiriyenko, the de facto leader of the Russian presidential administration (RIA Novosti, June 8). According to some insider sources, Kiriyenko is working on creating a positive propaganda image of “Russia after the war,” presumably hoping that the conflict will end in a victory for the Kremlin (Meduza, June 8).
But Moscow-based analysts clearly overestimated the “pro-Russian” sentiments of the local population before the 2022 invasion, likely assuming that, like in Crimea in 2014, the majority Russian-speaking population had been subjected to massive propaganda indoctrination via Moscow TV channels for years. However, in Kherson, local residents expressed no joy about “returning to their native harbor.” And while most of them are, in fact, Russian-speaking, they tended to strongly associate themselves politically with Ukraine.
Since the opening days of the occupation of Kherson and neighboring cities, mass protest rallies have continued there, which Russian troops have sometimes had to disperse using firearms (Region.Expert, June 13). In Kherson, in fact, a dual power has arisen. The regional administration is headed by collaborators appointed by the occupying forces, who want to symbolically consolidate Russian power by erecting a monument to Tsar Catherine II (Pravda.com.ua, June 18). Whereas, the mayor of the city remains Igor Kolykhayev, elected in 2020; he continues to manage the municipal economy and says Kherson residents are awaiting liberation by Ukrainian troops (RBC, May 23).
As for everyday life, the situation in Kherson is approaching a humanitarian catastrophe. All Ukrainian commercial networks, banks and pharmacies are closed. Public utilities and social services do not work. Almost all trade is carried out in street markets. However, despite the invaders’ desire to introduce the Russian ruble, hryvnia banknotes remains in circulation, and even electronic payments using the Ukrainian banking system go through. Ukrainian communication systems have also proven to be surprisingly stable, and attempts by the occupiers to switch to Russian standards are failing. But Russian censorship is already at work (see EDM, June 23), turning into outright terror: hundreds of people dissatisfied with the occupation are being detained and kidnapped (Postimees.ee, June 16). Russian forces have set up “filtration camps” and rob local residents trying to flee to territories controlled by the Ukrainian army (Svoboda.org, June 17).
However, many Kherson residents and locals of other occupied cities are not ready to tolerate this outrage and are switching to the tactics of guerilla resistance (Apostrophe.ua, June 13). Partisan activities are on the rise (The Economist, June 5; see EDM, May 2), including the attempted assassination of the Russian-appointed head of the regional Kherson prison system (Svoboda.org, June 18).
Perhaps this unexpected popular rebuff to the occupation forced the collaborating authorities into slowing down their plans to hold a referendum on incorporating the occupied regions into Russia. Unlike the Crimean referendum in March 2014, which the invaders tried to hold as quickly as possible in an attempt to legitimize the annexation, today the Kherson occupation administration says that the issue of a referendum “is not on the agenda” (RIA Novosti, June 4). In a clear indication of how unpopular the idea of joining Russia is among Kherson residents: an attempt to distribute Russian passports attracted only 23 takers, that is, only the collaborating officials themselves (Svoboda.org, June 11). Undoubtedly, any eventual referendum in Kherson will be as rigged as the one held in Crimea; and in preparation, the occupiers have already stolen regional voter lists (TSN, June 20).
Mass deliveries of modern weapons to the defending Ukrainian army are capable of overcoming this expanding tragedy. However, although the Lend-Lease program in the United States has been approved, sufficiently large deliveries have not yet begun (Interfax, June 18). During World War II, US Lend-Lease helped the Soviet Union withstand the invasion of Nazi Germany. But today, Vladimir Putin’s Russia, in an effort to restore the empire and destroy the independence of neighboring countries, has itself become reminiscent of its historical foe.
Tristan
Has No Life - Lives on TB
Tristan
Has No Life - Lives on TB
Tristan
Has No Life - Lives on TB
Original to the poster Polina, I think.
Tristan
Has No Life - Lives on TB
The Kyiv Independent
@KyivIndependent
UK official: It will take years to replace stockpile of weapons sent to Ukraine. Tony Radakin, the UK's chief of the defense staff, said that it would take five to ten years before the UK could reach pre-war figures.
Sure seems like strategic thinking has become a lost art...
Tristan
Has No Life - Lives on TB
Tristan
Has No Life - Lives on TB
Tristan
Has No Life - Lives on TB
The "peace dividend" concept is heavily entrenched....
Posted for fair use.....
www.npr.org
Russia is disappearing Ukrainian civilians. Their families want answers
June 24, 202211:13 AM ET
ANYA KAMENETZ
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Iryna Andrusha (left) and Kateryna Andrusha, sister and mother, respectively, of Ukrainian school teacher Viktoria Andrusha, who was taken by Russian forces from the village of Novyi Bykiv in late March.
Anya Kamenetz/NPR
Editor's note: This story includes descriptions of violence.
NOVYI BYKIV, Ukraine — She is fair, and she is stubborn. Those are the words Viktoria Andrusha's mother and sister use to describe her. Russian soldiers took the 25-year-old Ukrainian teacher away in late March.
Andrusha and her three older sisters grew up in the village of Novyi Bykiv, about 60 miles east of Kyiv. After graduating college, she taught middle school math in Brovary, a suburb closer to the capital.
Bombs started falling in Brovary almost as soon as the war began. So she went to stay with her parents back in Novyi Bykiv, thinking it would be safer. But no.
On Feb. 27, Russian soldiers invaded the village. They came to Andrusha's home a month later. Based on some pictures and messages they found on her phone, they accused Andrusha of informing the Ukrainian army about Russian troop movements. And they took her away. She is still missing.
United Nations human rights workers documented over 200 cases of enforced disappearances of civilians between February, when the Russians launched their invasion, and late May. Mainly the perpetrators are Russian military or affiliated armed groups.
NPR spoke to five Ukrainian civilians who had been detained by Russian soldiers, transported across the Russian border and held in the same two facilities for several weeks in March, April and/or May. The first facility was a tent camp in Glushkovo, Russia. The second was a jail in Kursk, 250 miles from the Ukrainian border.
Now back home, the interviewees shared parallel stories of violence and humiliation.
They came forward to speak to the media, despite fear of retaliation, because they wanted to help Andrusha's family. She was seen in both places. And those who didn't see her heard rumors about the brave teacher from Brovary.
"On the day they left, she just came up to me, kissed me, and she asked for warm socks," says her mother, Kateryna Andrusha, with tears in her eyes. "And then she asked the soldiers' permission to say goodbye to her father."
Viktoria Andrusha's mother, Kateryna Andrusha, in her office, damaged by Russian soldiers.
Anya Kamenetz/NPR
The soldiers came back a few days later and arrested Kateryna, who is a local official. They kept her in the basement of a private home nearby, blindfolded, for three days.
Viktoria Andrusha is believed to have been held in an abandoned building in her village. She would have been on the first level. Two other male prisoners shared this crawl space below.
Anya Kamenetz/NPR
Later the family found out that Viktoria was also briefly held in an abandoned building, just a short walk away from Kateryna's office in the village council.
An abandoned building near the village council where Viktoria Andrusha's family believes Russian forces held her temporarily before taking her out of town.
Anya Kamenetz/NPR
An interior look at left-behind items in the abandoned building where locals believe Viktoria Andrusha was held. In the back is a trap door to the cellar where two men were also held.
Anya Kamenetz/NPR
"The Russians didn't let me go, they just ran away," says Kateryna. Because on March 31, the Ukrainian army reclaimed the town of Novy Bykiv.
As the citizens of the town picked up the pieces of their lives, the Andrusha family started to hear from people who had seen Viktoria in captivity. What they heard scared them.
He went from a pit, to a tent, to a jail
"You feel like you're half alive and half dead," Misha, a 27-year-old Ukrainian taxi driver and video blogger, says about his experience being held incommunicado by Russian soldiers.
He says the Russians arrested him on March 7, after he had been helping the Ukrainian army, including by driving a Russian prisoner of war to a checkpoint in his taxi. The Russians held him captive for 35 days. He doesn't want his last name used because he fears further retaliation.
Ukrainian taxi driver Misha was arrested and held in the same two prisons in Russia as Viktoria Andrusha.
Anya Kamenetz/NPR
Misha spent the first two days of his captivity outdoors, in a pit in the ground lined with cardboard, in freezing weather. He was wearing only a T-shirt at first, which was ripped while the soldiers were examining his many tattoos to see what they might reveal about his loyalties.
At some point, they gave him a jacket that was taken off a Ukrainian soldier. This gesture made Misha think that they didn't want him dead, at least not right away.
Then Misha rode in an armored personnel carrier across the border to a tent camp in Glushkovo, Russia, that at the time held, he estimated, about 150 people. As all the interviewees reported, the tents were surrounded by barbed wire, guarded by German shepherds and snipers. Detainees were allowed to leave the tents only in a group, holding hands with prisoners on either side and moving at a run. They were allowed only a few minutes at a time to use the bathroom or cram food into their mouths — endless rounds of kasha and cabbage soup, Misha complains. The guards would hit them with batons for moving too slowly.
Volodymr and Tetiana, a married couple in their 50s, who also don't want to use their last names to protect them from Russian retaliation, tell NPR they first met Viktoria in the tent camp. Tetiana and Viktoria shared a tent. They were among very few women in captivity, especially civilian women. Tetiana says the guards didn't hit the women as much as the men.
All five also say Glushkovo was nowhere near as bad as the second facility they were taken to, in Kursk. "The tent camp was nothing special," says Volodymyr. "The detention center was hell."
Viktoria stood up to the guards
"On the first day [in Kursk], they beat us for six hours," says Misha. "They used boxing gloves and stun guns. They wanted to show us who was in charge." The stun gun gives an electric shock that leaves you shaking, he says. And they used it on the back and legs — he thinks that was so as not to make marks that were easy to see.
The jail smelled of fresh paint, Misha says. Once a week, someone would visit the prisoners, introducing himself as a civilian Russian prosecutor. This is the person, United Nations human rights experts say, who in the Russian legal system would be tasked with both overseeing the prisoners' welfare as well as prosecuting the case against them. He asked after their well-being.
But Misha and another former captive, Serhei, both say the people running the prison reminded them of their beating on the first day, and warned them to tell the prosecutor that everything was fine, that they were being treated well.
Serhei and Misha don't know each other. Serhei, 28, works in Ukraine's Infrastructure Ministry. He says Russian troops arrested him outside Kyiv in late February for having a navigation device in his car. The Russians stabbed his hands. He suffered severe frostbite in his feet after being held captive outdoors. When he got to the tent camp, he saw a Russian doctor, who amputated parts of his feet.
In Kursk, he was beaten anyway. His surgery wounds got infected and he lost a lot of blood. Only then, much weakened, was he allowed to lie down during the day.
UKRAINE INVASION — EXPLAINED
War displaced two-thirds of Ukraine's children. Keeping them safe isn't easy
Serhei didn't see Viktoria himself, because women and men were held separately. But he heard about the young math teacher. She had a reputation for defiance.
Viktoria's eldest sister, Iryna, says of the people who have come forward in response to her social media posts about her missing relative, "All of them told me that in captivity, Russians made Ukrainians learn Russian songs and the Russian national anthem. And they said that Viktoria refused to do it."
Iryna continues, "We don't know the truth, exactly. But I know I was told that she spoke Ukrainian, only Ukrainian, and even when Russian soldiers yelled at her, they tried to make her speak Russian, but she refused and spoke only Ukrainian."
This is the Viktoria that Iryna and Kateryna know well. Stubborn. Fair.
In enforced disappearances, the families are also victims
Matilda Bogner, head of the U.N. Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine, says there are four categories of international human rights violations and potential war crimes evident in the stories told to NPR, as well as in dozens of similar cases she has documented.
Head of the U.N. Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine, Matilda Bogner (left), presents a report at the Ukraine Crisis Media Center, in Kyiv, Ukraine.
Yuliia Ovsiannikova/Ukrinform/Future Publishing via Getty Images
The first is the detention of civilians who don't pose any immediate security risk.
The second is forcible deportation across borders.
The third is enforced disappearance, which means holding people without allowing communication with the outside world or telling anyone where they are. In these situations, says Bogner, "The families are considered victims as well, because they go through hell trying to find their family member."
Holding people secretly, without any form of due process, also sets the stage for other potential violations — torture, even murder. And those constitute the fourth category of violation: the beatings NPR heard about, the punishing cold, insufficient food, denial of medical care, and humiliation.
WORLD
How a Ukrainian teacher helped students escape Russia's invasion, and still graduate
It's unclear where, when, or whether these victims will have a day in court. Ukraine's government sentenced three captured Russian soldiers last month and officials say they've documented 14,000 other possible war crimes and counting. The International Criminal Court could step in, and Bogner says there's also talk of setting up a special tribunal.
But first, people in detention have to try to get home alive. The people NPR talked to say they were all released in exchange for Russian soldiers who were held captive by the Ukrainians.
EUROPE
Shelter.Lviv started on Instagram. It's now helped house 4,000 women and children
In Misha's case, his followers on YouTube and the social media app Telegram spotted a story about his arrest that ran in the Russian media. This gave his wife and mother-in-law the clues they needed to pressure Ukrainian officials to set up a trade.
Prisoners were being swapped frequently, says Misha, and before they left, there was what he called a "goodbye ceremony."
In Misha's telling, the jailers formed two lines on either side of a corridor. They put sacks on the ground to make it slippery. They forced the prisoners who were being released to run down the corridor, singing Russian songs. As they did, they hit them again with the stun guns.
Misha thinks he recognizes the person he was swapped with on April 10. He says he was "a skinny, dark-haired Russian guy" — the same man, he thinks, that he drove to the checkpoint in his taxi not long before he was first arrested. The Russians set fire to that taxi, a brand-new Mercedes that Misha had just bought for $25,000.
Meanwhile Viktoria Andrusha's family doesn't know for sure if she's still in Kursk. They are contacting everyone they can think of, trying to arrange an exchange for her release.
"I hope every day, and I wait for her," says her mother Kateryna.
They're not the only ones waiting for her. Her big sister Iryna says, "All of her students' families are sending us messages, saying how is Viktoria? Where is Viktoria?"
Russia is disappearing Ukrainian civilians. Their families want answers
Ukrainians who were held in Russia detail their detention, hoping to help find a teacher still missing. She is one of more than 200 civilians that U.N. human rights workers say Russia has disappeared.
www.npr.org
Russia is disappearing Ukrainian civilians. Their families want answers
June 24, 202211:13 AM ET
ANYA KAMENETZ
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Iryna Andrusha (left) and Kateryna Andrusha, sister and mother, respectively, of Ukrainian school teacher Viktoria Andrusha, who was taken by Russian forces from the village of Novyi Bykiv in late March.
Anya Kamenetz/NPR
Editor's note: This story includes descriptions of violence.
NOVYI BYKIV, Ukraine — She is fair, and she is stubborn. Those are the words Viktoria Andrusha's mother and sister use to describe her. Russian soldiers took the 25-year-old Ukrainian teacher away in late March.
Andrusha and her three older sisters grew up in the village of Novyi Bykiv, about 60 miles east of Kyiv. After graduating college, she taught middle school math in Brovary, a suburb closer to the capital.
Bombs started falling in Brovary almost as soon as the war began. So she went to stay with her parents back in Novyi Bykiv, thinking it would be safer. But no.
On Feb. 27, Russian soldiers invaded the village. They came to Andrusha's home a month later. Based on some pictures and messages they found on her phone, they accused Andrusha of informing the Ukrainian army about Russian troop movements. And they took her away. She is still missing.
United Nations human rights workers documented over 200 cases of enforced disappearances of civilians between February, when the Russians launched their invasion, and late May. Mainly the perpetrators are Russian military or affiliated armed groups.
NPR spoke to five Ukrainian civilians who had been detained by Russian soldiers, transported across the Russian border and held in the same two facilities for several weeks in March, April and/or May. The first facility was a tent camp in Glushkovo, Russia. The second was a jail in Kursk, 250 miles from the Ukrainian border.
Now back home, the interviewees shared parallel stories of violence and humiliation.
They came forward to speak to the media, despite fear of retaliation, because they wanted to help Andrusha's family. She was seen in both places. And those who didn't see her heard rumors about the brave teacher from Brovary.
"On the day they left, she just came up to me, kissed me, and she asked for warm socks," says her mother, Kateryna Andrusha, with tears in her eyes. "And then she asked the soldiers' permission to say goodbye to her father."
Viktoria Andrusha's mother, Kateryna Andrusha, in her office, damaged by Russian soldiers.
Anya Kamenetz/NPR
The soldiers came back a few days later and arrested Kateryna, who is a local official. They kept her in the basement of a private home nearby, blindfolded, for three days.
Viktoria Andrusha is believed to have been held in an abandoned building in her village. She would have been on the first level. Two other male prisoners shared this crawl space below.
Anya Kamenetz/NPR
Later the family found out that Viktoria was also briefly held in an abandoned building, just a short walk away from Kateryna's office in the village council.
An abandoned building near the village council where Viktoria Andrusha's family believes Russian forces held her temporarily before taking her out of town.
Anya Kamenetz/NPR
An interior look at left-behind items in the abandoned building where locals believe Viktoria Andrusha was held. In the back is a trap door to the cellar where two men were also held.
Anya Kamenetz/NPR
"The Russians didn't let me go, they just ran away," says Kateryna. Because on March 31, the Ukrainian army reclaimed the town of Novy Bykiv.
As the citizens of the town picked up the pieces of their lives, the Andrusha family started to hear from people who had seen Viktoria in captivity. What they heard scared them.
He went from a pit, to a tent, to a jail
"You feel like you're half alive and half dead," Misha, a 27-year-old Ukrainian taxi driver and video blogger, says about his experience being held incommunicado by Russian soldiers.
He says the Russians arrested him on March 7, after he had been helping the Ukrainian army, including by driving a Russian prisoner of war to a checkpoint in his taxi. The Russians held him captive for 35 days. He doesn't want his last name used because he fears further retaliation.
Ukrainian taxi driver Misha was arrested and held in the same two prisons in Russia as Viktoria Andrusha.
Anya Kamenetz/NPR
Misha spent the first two days of his captivity outdoors, in a pit in the ground lined with cardboard, in freezing weather. He was wearing only a T-shirt at first, which was ripped while the soldiers were examining his many tattoos to see what they might reveal about his loyalties.
At some point, they gave him a jacket that was taken off a Ukrainian soldier. This gesture made Misha think that they didn't want him dead, at least not right away.
Then Misha rode in an armored personnel carrier across the border to a tent camp in Glushkovo, Russia, that at the time held, he estimated, about 150 people. As all the interviewees reported, the tents were surrounded by barbed wire, guarded by German shepherds and snipers. Detainees were allowed to leave the tents only in a group, holding hands with prisoners on either side and moving at a run. They were allowed only a few minutes at a time to use the bathroom or cram food into their mouths — endless rounds of kasha and cabbage soup, Misha complains. The guards would hit them with batons for moving too slowly.
Volodymr and Tetiana, a married couple in their 50s, who also don't want to use their last names to protect them from Russian retaliation, tell NPR they first met Viktoria in the tent camp. Tetiana and Viktoria shared a tent. They were among very few women in captivity, especially civilian women. Tetiana says the guards didn't hit the women as much as the men.
All five also say Glushkovo was nowhere near as bad as the second facility they were taken to, in Kursk. "The tent camp was nothing special," says Volodymyr. "The detention center was hell."
Viktoria stood up to the guards
"On the first day [in Kursk], they beat us for six hours," says Misha. "They used boxing gloves and stun guns. They wanted to show us who was in charge." The stun gun gives an electric shock that leaves you shaking, he says. And they used it on the back and legs — he thinks that was so as not to make marks that were easy to see.
The jail smelled of fresh paint, Misha says. Once a week, someone would visit the prisoners, introducing himself as a civilian Russian prosecutor. This is the person, United Nations human rights experts say, who in the Russian legal system would be tasked with both overseeing the prisoners' welfare as well as prosecuting the case against them. He asked after their well-being.
But Misha and another former captive, Serhei, both say the people running the prison reminded them of their beating on the first day, and warned them to tell the prosecutor that everything was fine, that they were being treated well.
Serhei and Misha don't know each other. Serhei, 28, works in Ukraine's Infrastructure Ministry. He says Russian troops arrested him outside Kyiv in late February for having a navigation device in his car. The Russians stabbed his hands. He suffered severe frostbite in his feet after being held captive outdoors. When he got to the tent camp, he saw a Russian doctor, who amputated parts of his feet.
In Kursk, he was beaten anyway. His surgery wounds got infected and he lost a lot of blood. Only then, much weakened, was he allowed to lie down during the day.
UKRAINE INVASION — EXPLAINED
War displaced two-thirds of Ukraine's children. Keeping them safe isn't easy
Serhei didn't see Viktoria himself, because women and men were held separately. But he heard about the young math teacher. She had a reputation for defiance.
Viktoria's eldest sister, Iryna, says of the people who have come forward in response to her social media posts about her missing relative, "All of them told me that in captivity, Russians made Ukrainians learn Russian songs and the Russian national anthem. And they said that Viktoria refused to do it."
Iryna continues, "We don't know the truth, exactly. But I know I was told that she spoke Ukrainian, only Ukrainian, and even when Russian soldiers yelled at her, they tried to make her speak Russian, but she refused and spoke only Ukrainian."
This is the Viktoria that Iryna and Kateryna know well. Stubborn. Fair.
In enforced disappearances, the families are also victims
Matilda Bogner, head of the U.N. Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine, says there are four categories of international human rights violations and potential war crimes evident in the stories told to NPR, as well as in dozens of similar cases she has documented.
Head of the U.N. Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine, Matilda Bogner (left), presents a report at the Ukraine Crisis Media Center, in Kyiv, Ukraine.
Yuliia Ovsiannikova/Ukrinform/Future Publishing via Getty Images
The first is the detention of civilians who don't pose any immediate security risk.
The second is forcible deportation across borders.
The third is enforced disappearance, which means holding people without allowing communication with the outside world or telling anyone where they are. In these situations, says Bogner, "The families are considered victims as well, because they go through hell trying to find their family member."
Holding people secretly, without any form of due process, also sets the stage for other potential violations — torture, even murder. And those constitute the fourth category of violation: the beatings NPR heard about, the punishing cold, insufficient food, denial of medical care, and humiliation.
WORLD
How a Ukrainian teacher helped students escape Russia's invasion, and still graduate
It's unclear where, when, or whether these victims will have a day in court. Ukraine's government sentenced three captured Russian soldiers last month and officials say they've documented 14,000 other possible war crimes and counting. The International Criminal Court could step in, and Bogner says there's also talk of setting up a special tribunal.
But first, people in detention have to try to get home alive. The people NPR talked to say they were all released in exchange for Russian soldiers who were held captive by the Ukrainians.
EUROPE
Shelter.Lviv started on Instagram. It's now helped house 4,000 women and children
In Misha's case, his followers on YouTube and the social media app Telegram spotted a story about his arrest that ran in the Russian media. This gave his wife and mother-in-law the clues they needed to pressure Ukrainian officials to set up a trade.
Prisoners were being swapped frequently, says Misha, and before they left, there was what he called a "goodbye ceremony."
In Misha's telling, the jailers formed two lines on either side of a corridor. They put sacks on the ground to make it slippery. They forced the prisoners who were being released to run down the corridor, singing Russian songs. As they did, they hit them again with the stun guns.
Misha thinks he recognizes the person he was swapped with on April 10. He says he was "a skinny, dark-haired Russian guy" — the same man, he thinks, that he drove to the checkpoint in his taxi not long before he was first arrested. The Russians set fire to that taxi, a brand-new Mercedes that Misha had just bought for $25,000.
Meanwhile Viktoria Andrusha's family doesn't know for sure if she's still in Kursk. They are contacting everyone they can think of, trying to arrange an exchange for her release.
"I hope every day, and I wait for her," says her mother Kateryna.
They're not the only ones waiting for her. Her big sister Iryna says, "All of her students' families are sending us messages, saying how is Viktoria? Where is Viktoria?"
jward
passin' thru
The Kyiv Independent
@KyivIndependent
Blinken: Russia has already lost the war. "Ukraine is defending itself with extraordinary courage and resilience and Russia has already lost," U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said.
jward
passin' thru
NEXTA
@nexta_tv
1h
naegling62
Veteran Member
That's got bad written all over it. Both sides could claim an out break of a new(bio-weapon) flu on each other.
NEXTA
@nexta_tv
1h
#Russia's Defense Ministry: The #Ukrainian Armed Forces are moving long-range foreign artillery to an old cemetery where 19th-century plague victims are buried in order to expose local residents to biological contamination.
Perhaps if someone bought him a dictionary.
The Kyiv Independent
@KyivIndependent
Blinken: Russia has already lost the war. "Ukraine is defending itself with extraordinary courage and resilience and Russia has already lost," U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said.
jward
passin' thru
Samuel Ramani
@SamRamani2
2h
The Russian Defence Ministry claims it has killed up to 80 Polish "mercenaries" in Donetsk While unconfirmed, it is another escalatory event in a weekend of spiralling tensions between Poland and Russia
mistaken1
Has No Life - Lives on TB
If someone constantly lies to you that is not communication that is manipulation.
It seems to me that the entire western power structure is built on manipulation aka lies.
If you like your doctor you can keep your doctor...
The vaccine is safe and effective ....
Inflation is transitory ...
Russia has already lost ...
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mistaken1
Has No Life - Lives on TB
Training as in 'stay in the truck and don't play with the radio, I'll be right back'.
yes, that is the purpose of "the lie" - manipulation -
in order to convince you to do something that you would not do if you had all the facts.
You have been convinced that Russia is going to invade America and take over your Wendy's Hamburgers.
Which has led you to support the largest military ever assembled.
And so Russia invades Ukraine and you have been convinced that Russia is going to conquer Europe.
Six months later, Russia has been unable to cross the Dnieper River and has tried and failed to make an amphipious landing in Odesa (a place that 30 years ago was part of Soviet Union.
Which is the lie and what are the facts?
Do you still believe that the Russians can make an amphibious landing in San Diego or Miami Beach?
Or crossing the Rockies and flooding the Great Plains?
How long do you think it would take for the Russians to get to the Vistula River in Poland?
The US has about 20 aircraft carriers.
Russia has one.
Which country has the ability to rapidly deploy its military worldwide?
mistaken1
Has No Life - Lives on TB
But russia keeps moving their country closer to our military bases.
I have played the video games where great hordes of russian troops invade everything, those are created in conjunction with military experts, they know what the russians are capable of.
The russians have repeatedly imposed financial sanctions on the US crippling our economy and keeping my grandkids from getting good paying jobs.
The russians have 'hacked' every election since 1861.
Putin is personally responsible for my outrageous energy costs.
I must sacrifice all I hold dear to keep this russian military juggernaut from overrunning europe.
I must do whatever the democraps and biden's handlers say I must do to save 'our democracy'!
db cooper
Resident Secret Squirrel
So much propaganda, but then again when all the past wars are analyzed, propaganda abounds everywhere. Probably beginning with the Vietnam war when Cronkite decided it was time to start with false reports, which blossomed into outright propaganda. Fast forward to the stealth WMD's in Iraq and the Afghans somehow taking full blame for the Towers in NYC destruction that led to the last 20 year war. And now the thirst for more war in Ukraine, more lies to keep it going.
The Kyiv Independent
@KyivIndependent
Blinken: Russia has already lost the war. "Ukraine is defending itself with extraordinary courage and resilience and Russia has already lost," U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said.
So Russia is losing? Really? With Russia taking more cities and entrapping more Uke military, they are losing? I doubt it.
For the sake of the simple Uke citizens, I'm certainly not in favor of this war or Russia winning for that matter. But the damn propaganda is one of things keeping it going, furthering the misery of the common person.
One issue the "analysts" never seem to quite grasp is the simple tactical concept named "terrain". The battle for the cities of Syeverodonetsk and Lysychank is a good example of the importance of terrain in tactical-level work.
In spite of the mainstream reporting, Severodonetsk fell to Russian forces days ago, entrapping an estimated 2000 Ukrainian troops who could not escape across the river to Lysychenko. Lysychenko is basically the western half of the two cities straddling the great river, but Severodonetsk is on the river flats on the east side and Lysychenko on the west side's high bluff. This makes for a tough and prolonged artillery battle because the high ground has a clear advantage. I tried to grab some pictures showing the differences in elevation but am not entirely satisfied with what's published out there. The pictures of the quarry on the west side probably show the elevation differences as well as any.
https://www.seekr.com/search?tab=img&query=lysychansk+severedonetsk+image+panorama
With the incredibly rapid collapse of the Ukrainian defenses to the south of these two cities, however, the problem has pretty much been resolved for the Russians. Not only are Ukrainian forces now encircled in another cauldron and Ukrainian generals repositioning their defenses against an anticipated attack in force down at Bakhmut (or Artemovsk if you will), they have pretty well ceded the sealing of the Russian pincers which have entrapped substantial forces. The battle for Bakhmut (on the path to Dnipro and/or Zaporizhzhya will be the next bloody encounter and it will be noted then how much of the Ukrainian air defense has survived to protect any new high-powered offensive weaponry newly in theater.+
I personally think the people who believe that the major cities need to be taken are full of it. Why must they be taken? More, bloody, extended building-by-building fights and the end result is millions of displaced refugees and destroyed infrastructure which now need extensive care and rebuilding. Leave those cities alone; they're meaningless. Take the small villages which are useful in cutting lines of supply and not heavily defended; methodically cut the logistics chains, isolate the defenders and mop them up until they surrender or die.
I had to laugh at the recent press release from some Ukrainian high mucky-muck who said that Putin's next target was Kiev.
Why in the world would he want to do that? That press release was for domestic digestion to get the locals fired up to be part of the Territorial Defense forces which are being systematically annihilated as they're thrown into the front lines after a whole month's worth of training.
Putin will continue to seal the south of Ukraine as the summer goes along, and expect great resistance along the Dnieper and Bug Rivers before they even get to Odessa. There will be lots of back and forth, with dramatic losses and victories by both combatants before this bloody mess is finally taken to its inevitable end by the very ones who are dragging it out at this very moment.
In spite of the mainstream reporting, Severodonetsk fell to Russian forces days ago, entrapping an estimated 2000 Ukrainian troops who could not escape across the river to Lysychenko. Lysychenko is basically the western half of the two cities straddling the great river, but Severodonetsk is on the river flats on the east side and Lysychenko on the west side's high bluff. This makes for a tough and prolonged artillery battle because the high ground has a clear advantage. I tried to grab some pictures showing the differences in elevation but am not entirely satisfied with what's published out there. The pictures of the quarry on the west side probably show the elevation differences as well as any.
https://www.seekr.com/search?tab=img&query=lysychansk+severedonetsk+image+panorama
With the incredibly rapid collapse of the Ukrainian defenses to the south of these two cities, however, the problem has pretty much been resolved for the Russians. Not only are Ukrainian forces now encircled in another cauldron and Ukrainian generals repositioning their defenses against an anticipated attack in force down at Bakhmut (or Artemovsk if you will), they have pretty well ceded the sealing of the Russian pincers which have entrapped substantial forces. The battle for Bakhmut (on the path to Dnipro and/or Zaporizhzhya will be the next bloody encounter and it will be noted then how much of the Ukrainian air defense has survived to protect any new high-powered offensive weaponry newly in theater.+
I personally think the people who believe that the major cities need to be taken are full of it. Why must they be taken? More, bloody, extended building-by-building fights and the end result is millions of displaced refugees and destroyed infrastructure which now need extensive care and rebuilding. Leave those cities alone; they're meaningless. Take the small villages which are useful in cutting lines of supply and not heavily defended; methodically cut the logistics chains, isolate the defenders and mop them up until they surrender or die.
I had to laugh at the recent press release from some Ukrainian high mucky-muck who said that Putin's next target was Kiev.
Why in the world would he want to do that? That press release was for domestic digestion to get the locals fired up to be part of the Territorial Defense forces which are being systematically annihilated as they're thrown into the front lines after a whole month's worth of training.
Putin will continue to seal the south of Ukraine as the summer goes along, and expect great resistance along the Dnieper and Bug Rivers before they even get to Odessa. There will be lots of back and forth, with dramatic losses and victories by both combatants before this bloody mess is finally taken to its inevitable end by the very ones who are dragging it out at this very moment.
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Wyominglarry
Veteran Member
**** Russia. I hope they bleed to death and become the third world hell hole they deserve to be.
The propaganda has been thoroughly studied and developed into an art form that is quite effective.
And a critically thinking American public has been educated into emotional children whose short attention spans only leave room for the shortest and most simple soundbite ideas of who is all bad and deserves to die, versus who is a complete hero.
When all legacy media use the same angle and phrases, it is a certainty that their message is 180 degrees from the truth.
JMHO
Why?
In the last 30 years, what has Russia done to you?
To your country?
How has Russia negatively impacted your life?
I mean, you have made a pretty emotionally charged statement - "you hope they bleed to death"
You have to have some extremely meaningful experience for that unless you are just another "Karen the sky screamer"
naegling62
Veteran Member
I'll bite. Russia has done nothing to me or my folk.
Zagdid
Veteran Member
Russian Railways partly suspends transit to Poland via Belarus
Russian Railways has suspended shipments of certain goods moved by transit via Belarus to Poland, the press service of the Russian railway operator sa...
news.az
Russian Railways partly suspends transit to Poland via Belarus
Russian Railways has suspended shipments of certain goods moved by transit via Belarus to Poland, the press service of the Russian railway operator said, News.az reports.
"Shipments of certain goods routed to Poland by transit via Belarus have been suspended," the company said.
No complete stop of traffic to Poland is the case in point, Russian Railways noted.
Doughboy42
Veteran Member
Perhaps I hold a grudge because of the AK-47s, RPGs, PKs, PPShs, grenades, etc. that Russia supplied the NVA and VC with that killed and maimed my friends. Perhaps.
wait-n-see
Veteran Member
Runtime - 18:30
" Jun 22, 2022 Latest situation report about the Russian general offensive in #Luhansk as well as the news about the ongoing battle of Severodonetsk as part of the #UkraineWar. "
Interesting vid from several days ago. Also shows how easy it is for 3rd parties to buy the weapons from Ukraine which we are giving to them. Wonder how long before the new owners start killing US military and civilian?