ALERT RUSSIA INVADES UKRAINE - Consolidated Thread

jward

jward

passin' thru
Christiaan Triebert
@trbrtc
46m

A chemical/oil tanker has reportedly been hit near the Kerch Strait Bridge by a Ukrainian drone, per a pro-Russian Telegram group. The Russian owned/operated vessel in question is SIG (IMO: 9735335), which has been under U.S. sanctions since 2019 for jet fuel deliveries to Syria.
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1687601666877521920
View: https://twitter.com/trbrtc/status/1687601666877521920?s=20


AIS data, courtesy of @MarineTraffic
, shows that the ship was at anchorage about 20 kilometers south of the Kerch Strait Bridge. A @planet
satellite image, taken on August 4 at 10:35 local time, confirms that SIG was indeed there. H/t @riley_mellen
.https://twitter.com/trbrtc/status/1687605637348220928?s=20

This audio was supposedly broadcast by SIG crew. Quick/dirty translation via @dim109
: “We have no cargo. Can't move without a tugboat, our engine room is flooded. No evacuation required. Waiting for the leadership to tell us what to do. We probably need to go to repair factory.”
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1687612494699806720
View: https://twitter.com/trbrtc/status/1687612494699806720?s=20


Through @PoleStarGlobal
AIS data, we know that a tugboat indeed came to SIG's rescue, specifically the MERKURIY (IMO: 7391692) that left Novorossiysk around 23:13 local time. The ship may not have carried oil-related cargo, if any, as it came back from Syria. w/ @riley_mellen
.
 
Tristan

Tristan

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Masterchief117 said:
Russians are using this stalemate to grind down Ukraine militarily, politically and economically.

The West is balking at the lack of progress despite all of the money and weapons sent. This, at least politically, weakens the West. It's an embarrassment.

Maybe, after the Ukrainian forces are weakened, the Russians begin to advance?

This also will begin to effect the political will of Ukraine. Will the war weary population still support a defeated army and will they continue to support Zelensky after seeing their sons just sent to be cannon fodder for a losing proposition?
Click to expand...


As long as there's a chance to continue to strip-mine the West's population of treasure, the Politicos will be gung-ho for 'To the Last Ukranian!!'
 
H

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Red Baron said:
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1687613684141490177
View: https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1687613684141490177
Click to expand...

32fcb832-49b8-4c1b-b3a9-069e0e95f926-austin_kyiv_final-01.jpg


Map-Europian%2BRussia.JPG



Geographic-location-of-the-Alexandrovsky-quarry-near-Kursk-in-the-East-Russian-plain.jpg

 
M

mecoastie

Veteran Member
Oreally said:
waiting for the air power to cover the advance. now just probing for the inevitable weak spots to be exploited later. and destroying russian artillery and armored gear wholesale.
Click to expand...
Isnt that what you said before that they were just waiting for the new Western armor? They have been probing for months. Are they just making a list of all the weak spots and going to wait until the F16s arrive? That certainly runs counter to the Western training they have most likely received. Also won’t the Russians be able to reinforce these weak spots in the months before the arrival of the F16s
 
R

rlm1966

Veteran Member
Oreally said:
destroying the Kerch bridge is part of the 'counter-offensive' and once it is finally taken out, and later in the year, when it is starting to get cold, and the russian land forces are really beginning to suffer from lack of basic supplies, the other side of the CO will pick up pace.

the counter offensive is going just fine.
Click to expand...
Even the patrons of Ukraine admit that the counter-offensive is not going well.
 
O

Oreally

Right from the start
mecoastie said:
Isnt that what you said before that they were just waiting for the new Western armor? They have been probing for months. Are they just making a list of all the weak spots and going to wait until the F16s arrive? That certainly runs counter to the Western training they have most likely received. Also won’t the Russians be able to reinforce these weak spots in the months before the arrival of the F16s
Click to expand...
yes. yes, and yes.

they tried the western tactics the first weeks, but without air cover , those tactics don't give success. so this is a new war. new tactics, new doctrine.

the F16, operating with air defenses, will be able to take out the low flying russian helis. allowing the so far held in reserve reserves, to advance.

[btw, no flights overhead the past few days]

the key element here is that the Ukr army has to lean to operate in a coordinated fashion. and when they do, given that they have the mobility/home field advantage advantage, it will decisive.

maybe the russians can reinforce some dug in fortifications,.. but they do not have enough men to cover the entire line, so there will always be weak points that can be explored and exploited.

also, the strangulation of the russian supply lines, means that any possible reinforcements will not have decent amounts of food, water, heat, ammo going into the winter. morale.

and they will be unable to move significant quantities of guys anyway, just review the video upthread of the gung ho guys without trucks for their regiment.

basically they have to win this. winning defined as forcing the russians back to the Crimea border and pretty much back to 2022 border of LPR and DPR, before Trump gets in office again, so that on his inauguration day. when they can no longer blackmail Biden for support, he can announce a peace 'deal'. 'global catastrophe averted.

who here does not want this?????
 
O

Oreally

Right from the start
bw said:
Finding a weak spot gives a VERY short-term battlefield advantage. If not immediately exploited, the opportunity is lost.
Click to expand...
I don't know if that is true in this case.

The front line fortifications are extensive, several hundreds of miles , and to reinforce any particular point means you have to move several hundred or several thousand guys and their equipment to another place, if you think that is going to be where it is going to be exploited.

And if you don't have the trucks or other transportation to move them then, the fortifications are just quote a monument to this stupidity of Man unquote

Whereas ukrainians have backline mobility. It is easy to see how in a 72-hour period they could easily move 10,000 to 15,000 guys to any selected point on the line and move forward.
 
M

mecoastie

Veteran Member
Oreally said:
yes. yes, and yes.

they tried the western tactics the first weeks, but without air cover , those tactics don't give success. so this is a new war. new tactics, new doctrine.

the F16, operating with air defenses, will be able to take out the low flying russian helis. allowing the so far held in reserve reserves, to advance.

[btw, no flights overhead the past few days]

the key element here is that the Ukr army has to lean to operate in a coordinated fashion. and when they do, given that they have the mobility/home field advantage advantage, it will decisive.

maybe the russians can reinforce some dug in fortifications,.. but they do not have enough men to cover the entire line, so there will always be weak points that can be explored and exploited.

also, the strangulation of the russian supply lines, means that any possible reinforcements will not have decent amounts of food, water, heat, ammo going into the winter. morale.

and they will be unable to move significant quantities of guys anyway, just review the video upthread of the gung ho guys without trucks for their regiment.

basically they have to win this. winning defined as forcing the russians back to the Crimea border and pretty much back to 2022 border of LPR and DPR, before Trump gets in office again, so that on his inauguration day. when they can no longer blackmail Biden for support, he can announce a peace 'deal'. 'global catastrophe averted.

who here does not want this?????
Click to expand...
I find it funny that you will cite and continue to cite a single video while putting down those multiple videos that others post of things like the Ukrainian recruitment squads.

So victory has now been defined as getting back to the existing borders pre 2022 prior to Jan 2025. No more Crimea by Christmas. Not sure NATO has the material capacity to continue support until then.

I question the value of a few F16s flown by half trained pilots. At the start of this conflict the Ukrainians were smoking KA52s. Russia has lost something like 30% of her prewar numbers. What changed? Why can’t they do that anymore? Are they out of MANPADS? Out of trained personnel to use them? Better Russian tactics?If these F16s are backed by air defense why isn’t the air defense knocking down the helicopters. Can that air defense protect the F16s from the R37s? If so why can’t it defend the current Ukrainian planes?
 
phloydius

phloydius

Veteran Member
DuckandCover said:
apnews.com

Ruble hits lowest value against USD since early in Ukraine war

The ruble has dropped against the U.S. dollar in trading in Moscow to it lowest level since the first month of the war in Ukraine.
apnews.com apnews.com
Click to expand...

1691242179566.png

Here is the RUB to USD chart for the last 5 years. The bottom of the huge dip is about Mar 11th, which is also when the G7 & the EU announced the large sanctions. After the sanctions were announced, the RUB started to climb to the high point on the chart which was near the end of June 2022. It has mostly been falling since.
 
wait-n-see

wait-n-see

Veteran Member
This famous counter-offensive does not exist
August 5, 2023

by stratpol

Jacques Hogard, French colonel, having participated in many conflicts in Africa and Europe, holder of many military distinctions, shared his own vision of the evolution of the Ukrainian conflict.

According to this high-ranking soldier, the Ukrainian counter-offensive has not been very successful, but kyiv is forced to continue its suicidal initiative, because it is now hostage to the demands of the West.

«NATO, responsible for this conflict, pushes forward the Zelensky regime and its armed forces to embark on a warlike adventure. This famous counter-offensive does not exist. We only saw a few tactical maneuvers, which failed right away". (0:15)

Mr. Hogard is convinced that there are a number of real factors that make the Ukrainian military simply unable to physically pull off a campaign of destruction of Russia. And, contrary to Western propaganda, these factors can be expressed in real numbers.

«There is no concentration of effort. The Ukrainians can no longer concentrate their efforts for several reasons. First, it is the exhaustion of the troops. The number of soldiers is constantly decreasing, everyone realizes it, but the West prefers to keep it quiet. Secondly, it is the disappearance of equipment. The West now provides much less equipment. The only useful thing the West continues to provide is intelligence».

Things become even less rosy for Kiev if we compare the current state of the two armies, the number of soldiers and equipment, if we count the losses and take into account the scale of the reinforcement of their positions.

«How do you want to achieve success with a physically, numerically and morally exhausted army against a Russian army, which is organized, integrated and well established in its defensive positions and which has a significant advantage in artillery and supremacy Aerial ?»

The French colonel considers the recent attacks of Ukrainian drones in peaceful areas of Russian cities to be a forced measure, because on the battlefield the Ukrainian army cannot do anything against its adversary, who is superior to it in all respects.

«Today, we see that we are more and more in a battle of the weak against the strong, the weak being the Ukrainian, who will therefore try replacement postures like the last attacks in terrorist action mode. That's all they have left to oppose the Russian army today».

Ukraine could have avoided all this casualties and destruction if, in 2022, it had not sided with the West, which was eager to start a war against Russia. As a result, Ukrainian land has become just a battleground between Russia and the NATO bloc.

«I think this Western "support" is very hypocritical at heart. In March 2022, Mr. Zelensky was ready to discuss the negotiation. […] It is with great bitterness that we see brother nations divided by Western, American and NATO maneuvers in the first place».

Instead of initiatives for a peaceful settlement of the conflict, we are now witnessing an ever-increasing drain on European taxpayers for the "bottomless barrel" of Ukraine. And now neither kyiv nor Brussels can put an end to it, because that would mean the political death of all the initiators of the conflict against Russia.

«Now Zelensky is "out of control", he always demands more money, always more weapons, but for what? For a victory, which is obviously eluded totally. I think the entire moral responsibility for such an outcome rests on the shoulders of the West».

The French colonel is also convinced that Ukraine has long since chosen the path of self-destruction, which today leads to a real conflict on its soil. And above all, the culprit of all the suffering of the Ukrainian people is the politicians of kyiv who, in the name of their selfish interests, delivered their own country into the hands of the West.

«Modern Ukraine, “post-Soviet” Ukraine is an artificial state. When a State no longer respects part of its population, because it is Russian-speaking and Orthodox, and bombards it, when this State accepts the Orange Revolution and 10 years after a putsch to overthrow the legitimate and legal government, this State no longer has any reason to be».
 
C

Cedar Lake

Connecticut Yankee

Saudi-hosted talks on Ukraine war start in Jeddah​

1 hour ago1 hour ago
Russia is not taking part in the the two-day meeting.
Kyiv said the delegates would look into a 10-point peace formula pushed by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Saudi Arabia began talks on resolving the Ukraine war on Saturday, Saudi state media reported, despite no delegation from Russia taking part.

Senior officials from some 40 countries including the US, China, South Africa and India are attending the discussions in the Red Sea coastal city of Jeddah.
www.dw.com

Saudi Arabia hosts talks on Ukraine war — without Russia – DW – 08/05/2023

Russia is not taking part in the the two-day meeting. Kyiv said the delegates would look into a 10-point peace formula pushed by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
www.dw.com www.dw.com
 
CaryC

CaryC

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Cedar Lake said:
Kyiv said the delegates would look into a 10-point peace formula pushed by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Click to expand...
10 point peace formula:

1) Putin is a war criminal and needs to be hanged BEFORE any talks with Russia
2) Crimea given back.
3) Reparations need to be paid by Russia
4) All ethnic Russians inside of Ukraine will go to concentration camps
5) Russia will be divided into 10 separate communities that will be governed by the west.
6) Russia will close all munitions plants and inventoried arms will be given to Ukraine.
7) The US will give to Ukraine 400 trillion dollars annually.
8) The White House will be Zippy's summer home.

You see where this is going don't you. Ukraine acting like they won.
 
O

Oreally

Right from the start
mecoastie said:
I find it funny that you will cite and continue to cite a single video while putting down those multiple videos that others post of things like the Ukrainian recruitment squads.

So victory has now been defined as getting back to the existing borders pre 2022 prior to Jan 2025. No more Crimea by Christmas. Not sure NATO has the material capacity to continue support until then.

I question the value of a few F16s flown by half trained pilots. At the start of this conflict the Ukrainians were smoking KA52s. Russia has lost something like 30% of her prewar numbers. What changed? Why can’t they do that anymore? Are they out of MANPADS? Out of trained personnel to use them? Better Russian tactics?If these F16s are backed by air defense why isn’t the air defense knocking down the helicopters. Can that air defense protect the F16s from the R37s? If so why can’t it defend the current Ukrainian planes?
Click to expand...
this is 'victory' as defined solely by me. not Z Propaganda. victory being the assurance of the continued existence of an independent and free Ukrainian state and its cultural independence.

' Not sure NATO has the material capacity to continue support until then.' : does Russia?

'I question the value of a few F16s flown by half trained pilots.':
i think the 5 or ten guys who have been flying over my village the past 6 weeks at very low levels will be well prepared to take out the russian helis.

'Are they out of MANPADS? Out of trained personnel to use them?':

saving them for the right time and place.

'If these F16s are backed by air defense why isn’t the air defense knocking down the helicopters.':

the russian helis can strike at ground targets from 15 km away from the front, from tree top level. so that is outside the range of any of the air defenses available. hence the F-16s

'Can that air defense protect the F16s from the R37s? ':

www.kyivpost.com

Opinion: Exclusive Insight: Russia’s Secret Air-to-Air Missile Shortage

This article was drafted and submitted to the U.S. Defense Department for Security Review on 4 Nov… - Nov. 16, 2022. By Jeffrey Fischer
www.kyivpost.com www.kyivpost.com

but in any event, this is war. and we will soon see who is calling this clearly.
 
A

Abert

Veteran Member
Cedar Lake said:

Saudi-hosted talks on Ukraine war start in Jeddah​

1 hour ago1 hour ago
Russia is not taking part in the the two-day meeting.
Kyiv said the delegates would look into a 10-point peace formula pushed by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Saudi Arabia began talks on resolving the Ukraine war on Saturday, Saudi state media reported, despite no delegation from Russia taking part.

Senior officials from some 40 countries including the US, China, South Africa and India are attending the discussions in the Red Sea coastal city of Jeddah.
www.dw.com

Saudi Arabia hosts talks on Ukraine war — without Russia – DW – 08/05/2023

Russia is not taking part in the the two-day meeting. Kyiv said the delegates would look into a 10-point peace formula pushed by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
www.dw.com www.dw.com
Click to expand...
It is not entirely clear why the Saudi's would be hosting this meeting - total joke to the point of being embarrassing.

https://www.eurasiantimes.com/3rd-august-the-west-drags-global-south-into/
The plan calls for:

1. Radiation and nuclear safety, focusing on restoring safety around Europe’s largest nuclear power plant, Zaporizhzhia in Ukraine, which is now Russian-occupied.

2. Food security, including protecting and ensuring Ukraine’s grain exports to the world’s poorest nations.

3. Energy security, with a focus on price restrictions on Russian energy resources and aiding Ukraine with restoring its power infrastructure, half of which has been damaged by Russian attacks.

4. Release all prisoners and deportees, including war prisoners and children deported to Russia.

5. Restoring Ukraine’s territorial integrity and Russia reaffirming it according to the UN Charter, which Zelensky said is “not up to negotiations.”

6. Withdrawal of Russian troops, cessation of hostilities, and restoration of Ukraine’s state borders with Russia.

7. Justice, including establishing a special tribunal to prosecute Russian war crimes.

8. Prevention of ecocide, the need for protection of the environment, with a focus on demining and restoring water treatment facilities.

9. Prevention of conflict escalation and building security architecture in the Euro-Atlantic space, including guarantees for Ukraine.

10. Confirmation of the war’s end, including a document signed by the involved parties.

Any dispassionate evaluation of the 10-point formula reveals it is a formula suggested by a victorious party for the vanquished one. This is not the Zelensky formula but the US’ Western Allies plus NATO formula. It speaks the mind of Europe on how it would like Russia to be treated.
 
O

Oreally

Right from the start
Abert said:
It is not entirely clear why the Saudi's would be hosting this meeting - total joke to the point of being embarrassing.

https://www.eurasiantimes.com/3rd-august-the-west-drags-global-south-into/
The plan calls for:

1. Radiation and nuclear safety, focusing on restoring safety around Europe’s largest nuclear power plant, Zaporizhzhia in Ukraine, which is now Russian-occupied.

2. Food security, including protecting and ensuring Ukraine’s grain exports to the world’s poorest nations.

3. Energy security, with a focus on price restrictions on Russian energy resources and aiding Ukraine with restoring its power infrastructure, half of which has been damaged by Russian attacks.

4. Release all prisoners and deportees, including war prisoners and children deported to Russia.

5. Restoring Ukraine’s territorial integrity and Russia reaffirming it according to the UN Charter, which Zelensky said is “not up to negotiations.”

6. Withdrawal of Russian troops, cessation of hostilities, and restoration of Ukraine’s state borders with Russia.

7. Justice, including establishing a special tribunal to prosecute Russian war crimes.

8. Prevention of ecocide, the need for protection of the environment, with a focus on demining and restoring water treatment facilities.

9. Prevention of conflict escalation and building security architecture in the Euro-Atlantic space, including guarantees for Ukraine.

10. Confirmation of the war’s end, including a document signed by the involved parties.

Any dispassionate evaluation of the 10-point formula reveals it is a formula suggested by a victorious party for the vanquished one. This is not the Zelensky formula but the US’ Western Allies plus NATO formula. It speaks the mind of Europe on how it would like Russia to be treated.
Click to expand...
Abert said:
It is not entirely clear why the Saudi's would be hosting this meeting - total joke to the point of being embarrassing.

https://www.eurasiantimes.com/3rd-august-the-west-drags-global-south-into/
The plan calls for:

1. Radiation and nuclear safety, focusing on restoring safety around Europe’s largest nuclear power plant, Zaporizhzhia in Ukraine, which is now Russian-occupied.

2. Food security, including protecting and ensuring Ukraine’s grain exports to the world’s poorest nations.

3. Energy security, with a focus on price restrictions on Russian energy resources and aiding Ukraine with restoring its power infrastructure, half of which has been damaged by Russian attacks.

4. Release all prisoners and deportees, including war prisoners and children deported to Russia.

5. Restoring Ukraine’s territorial integrity and Russia reaffirming it according to the UN Charter, which Zelensky said is “not up to negotiations.”

6. Withdrawal of Russian troops, cessation of hostilities, and restoration of Ukraine’s state borders with Russia.

7. Justice, including establishing a special tribunal to prosecute Russian war crimes.

8. Prevention of ecocide, the need for protection of the environment, with a focus on demining and restoring water treatment facilities.

9. Prevention of conflict escalation and building security architecture in the Euro-Atlantic space, including guarantees for Ukraine.

10. Confirmation of the war’s end, including a document signed by the involved parties.

Any dispassionate evaluation of the 10-point formula reveals it is a formula suggested by a victorious party for the vanquished one. This is not the Zelensky formula but the US’ Western Allies plus NATO formula. It speaks the mind of Europe on how it would like Russia to be treated.
Click to expand...

sounds right to me.
 
jward

jward

passin' thru
Flash_news_ua

⚡️russians launched a rocket attack on the outskirts of Zaporizhzhia, – Yurii Malashko, the head of Zaporizhzhia regional military administration, reports.
"Specialists are working at the site of the hit to eliminate the fire. No information about the victims was received", – Malashko writes.

Follow
@Flash_news_ua
11:49 AM · Aug 5, 2023
379
Views
 
C

Cedar Lake

Connecticut Yankee
CaryC said:
10 point peace formula:

1) Putin is a war criminal and needs to be hanged BEFORE any talks with Russia
2) Crimea given back.
3) Reparations need to be paid by Russia
4) All ethnic Russians inside of Ukraine will go to concentration camps
5) Russia will be divided into 10 separate communities that will be governed by the west.
6) Russia will close all munitions plants and inventoried arms will be given to Ukraine.
7) The US will give to Ukraine 400 trillion dollars annually.
8) The White House will be Zippy's summer home.

You see where this is going don't you. Ukraine acting like they won.
Click to expand...
4) All ethnic Russians inside of Ukraine will go to concentration camps
a) All ethnic Russians outside of Ukraine will go to concentration camps

Ukraine, "the beating heart of today's NATO/European values" as per Ursula von der Leyen.
 
jward

jward

passin' thru
Tristan said:
As long as there's a chance to continue to strip-mine the West's population of treasure, the Politicos will be gung-ho for 'To the Last Ukranian!!'
Click to expand...
See, some of us, or at least I, have been convinced we were finished chewing up these people/places, and had telegraphed our imminent pivot to the Asian-pacific theatre.

Not clear to me if I'm in error in my assessment, or if it just takes more time for the lumbering ship to turn than I realized
:: shrug ::.
 
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