ALERT RUSSIA INVADES UKRAINE - Consolidated Thread

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment

Cedar Lake

Connecticut Yankee
Seriously, this was also influenced by the successful strikes of Russian Air and Naval forces on the river and sea ports of Ukraine.
In addition, Russia's termination of the Black Sea Initiative has led to a halt in traffic through Ukraine's Black Sea ports.
The attacks on the Danube River ports at Izmail, Kaliya and Reni significantly complicate all Ukrainian logistics there and closes the loophole for agricultural exports, and more importantly, shuts down all clandestine weapons/munition imports.
Odessa sea & river ports are no longer under the protection of ''the grain deal''.
The new reality is that the war zone now encompasses all of Odessa Oblast.
 
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Cedar Lake

Connecticut Yankee
Big difference between those 2 statements.
Indeed, the 1st tweet states a fact.
Re-edit 1st tweet now to, states an assessment of gathered information at this particular point in time which will be subject to change based on updated future assessments.
There, fixed it. :apc:.......;)
The 2nd tweet state a incorrect opinion.
 
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blueinterceptor

Veteran Member
In training how many of these million dollar systems does a trainee get to fire? In the case of the Ukrainians, to say that their training was compressed, would probably be an understatement. One further thought, if you were to have an American team manning a patriot missile system, there might be one new guy with a couple of seasoned vets(that know how to use the systems). In the case of the Ukraines, if there were 4 guys manning the system, they’d all be new guys. No seasoned personnel.

If the instructors spoke fluent Ukraine communication might not be an issue but if everything went through translators, a lot could have be lost during training.
 

wait-n-see

Veteran Member

LEFT FEINT RIGHT HOOK - Russia captured Novojehorivka, Serhiivka & Nadiya - Svatove Front Analysis​

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VBpwIqdEPtY

Run time - 8:04
Jul 26, 2023

Russian assault on the right flank of the Karmazynivka salient managed to break the Ukrainian lines entirely, resulting in the capture of Nadiya and Serhiivka.

Pro-Ukrainian source, DeepStateUA reported the Russian advance to be at least 5km deep into Ukrainian controlled territory, merely 2km away from the major communications artery between Pershotravneve and Proletarske.

Russian forces also braced the Ukrainian counterattacks to capture Novojehorivka with rumors from pro-Russian sources talking about Ukrainian forces abandoning Tverdokhlibove, the village immediate west of Novojehorivka.
 

Oreally

Right from the start
russian losses must really be significant. they are going to bring back men who are as old as 65, former officers, in next mobilization. also raised the draft age to 30

Russia Raises Upper-Age Limit for Military Reservists


President Vladimir Putin on Monday signed into law a bill to raise the upper age limit for military reservists eligible for mobilization by five years.

The amendments to Russia’s law on military duty and military service introduce a four-year transition period — between 2024 and 2028 — during which the reservist age limit will be gradually raised.

The changes come as Russian authorities have sought to boost troop numbers amid a growing manpower shortage in Ukraine.

For senior officers, the age limit for reservists eligible for mobilization will eventually become 65, while for junior officers it will be raised to 60.

Soldiers, sailors, sergeants, petty officers, warrant officers and midshipmen in Russia’s military reserve forces will be eligible for mobilization up to the age of 55.

For high-ranking officers, the upper age limit of 70 years remains unchanged.

The changes also allow Russia’s military to sign contracts with foreign citizens under the age of 52.

Putin endorsed Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu’s proposal in December to increase Russia’s combat personnel by 30% from 1.15 million to 1.5 million.

Another bill introduced last week raises the conscription age limit — also endorsed by Putin — from the current range of men aged 18-27 to 21-30.
 

Cedar Lake

Connecticut Yankee
Like everything American/Western media comes out with, wait for it to shake out in the next 2-36 hours.
It could be something to it or it could be nothing at all.
I have learned not to jump on the bandwagon like ''the rest of the lemmings''.
I listened and watched what happened in the ''1st American war in Afghanistan'' when the Soviet Union invaded in 1979. And ''The Grenada'' Conflict, etc.
Beware when the Western Media '' drumbeats are starting to rev up.
Oh, and I am not a supporter of the Communist Liberal Diversity Democratic Party's President at all.
 

CaryC

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Big difference between those 2 statements.
I'm a bit confused, which may not be hard to do, I admit. But.......

Didn't Russia announce when the grain deal fell through, that any, as in ANY ships going to Ukraine ports, would be considered a military target, and subject to boarding? Wouldn't that be like a.....blockade?

If that memory is correct.

Then, .....what? No one believed them? (Aaaaa they're just kidding)

But now that the West, Briton, US, NATO has said the "B" word, (blockade) everyone is all up in arms over it? (They really mean it *gasp* as they grab their chest and say, it's the big one)

I mean, come on, this is war. I was amazed that they even had a grain deal to start with.

Has everybody in the west forgotten what war is? It's more than a 3 letter word.

Wait until Russia cuts off the oil Ukraine is using to fight this war. Y'all did know that Turkey is buying oil from Russia refining it and sending it to Ukraine? Right?

Everybody in the west will be up in arms over that, and like ya know dude all the children will die. Sniff.
 

CaryC

Has No Life - Lives on TB
I find it interesting, that given our out-sized expenditures spent for 'Defense' - larger than any 3 of our putative 'Competitors' combined - that we are running out of 'ammo' and weapons.
Your tax dollars, hard at work supporting the economy, just not our economy:

(I think the head line says it all)

 

vector7

Dot Collector
F1-D4XjXgAEWLm2
 
July 26, 2023
Battle For Robotyne - Ukraine Open Thread 2023-178

It seems that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have had a bad day so far.

Yesterday they made another reconnaissance attack on Robotyne, south of Orkiv. It cost them 2 tanks. This morning they launched a much bigger attack in which at least three motorized battalions with tanks took part. They managed to get to the north-east end east of Robotyne but did not enter the town.

According to the Russian Ministry of Defense the attack cost the Ukrainian army 22 tanks, 10 Bradley Infantry Fighting Vehicles and one armored combat vehicle. Several of these losses have been confirmed by drone videos from the region.

Over 100 Ukrainians were killed or wounded during that attack alone. The Ukrainian forces are retreating.

Yesterday the Ukrainian forces lost a total 20 artillery pieces. It is only the second time during the 50+ days of the Ukrainian counter-offensive that this level was reached. The losses included 5 2S1 Gvozdika self propelled howitzer, 3 Polish made Krab self propelled howitzer, 3 M-777 howitzer and several other types of bigger guns.

The Ukrainian friendly LiveUAmap shows Robotyne in Ukrainian hand.

robotyne-s.jpg

bigger
However, even the Ukrainian Defense Ministry made no such claim. According to various Russian sources the town is still in Russian hands.

robotyne2-s.jpg

bigger
Use this thread as open thread related to Ukraine.

An open thread for other issues can be found here.

Posted by b at 14:42 UTC | Comments (2)
====

July 25, 2023

Who Can Give Security Guarantees To Ukraine?​


A main question for Ukraine since it became an independent state was who or what could potentially guarantee its security.

In the first years after 1991 the Ukrainian government thought that it could secure itself. It had inherited some Soviet nuclear weapons and it tried to bring those to use. But it failed to circumvent the security locks the Russian engineers had integrated into the nuclear warheads.

There was also pressure from the U.S. to get rid of those devices as the Ukraine at that time was prolific in selling its Soviet era weapons to various shady actors around the world.

Ukraine, together with Belarus and Kazakhstan, was pressed to enter the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. In exchange it got the Budapest Memorandum, a weak promise of non-interference:

The memoranda, signed in Patria Hall at the Budapest Convention Center with US Ambassador Donald M. Blinken amongst others in attendance, prohibited the Russian Federation, the United Kingdom and the United States from threatening or using military force or economic coercion against Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan, "except in self-defence or otherwise in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations." As a result of other agreements and the memorandum, between 1993 and 1996, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine gave up their nuclear weapons.

Two side notes are of interest:
  1. Ambassador Donald M. Blinken is the father of the current Secretary of State Anthony Blinken.
  2. Formally Russia has not broken the Budapest Memorandum. It recognized the People's Republics of Luhansk and Donetsk as independent states. It signed security agreements with them and then entered the war in Ukraine, which had been ongoing since 2014, under Article 51 - common self defense - of the Charter of the United Nations. Jurists will debate that argument for years but it is not dissimilar to the argument NATO used to justify the violent break-up Yugoslavia.
After the Budapest Memorandum was signed the Soviet nuclear weapons weapons Ukraine and others still had were sent back to Russia.

By mid of the first decade of the third millennium Russia had largely recuperated from the shocks that had followed the break up of the Soviet Union. The Ukraine had meanwhile fallen further apart. The population sharply decreased, its industries broke down and wide spread corruption was eating up what was left from its riches. Its own army, while on paper still well armed, was no longer able to defend the country. That was fine at that time as no one was really interested in threatening it.

But NATO, in breach of promises given to Russia, expanded and crept nearer to the Ukrainian border. In 2008, and also in Budapest, the U.S. used a NATO summit to press other NATO countries to offer Ukraine a Membership Action Plan (MAP). There was however no future date attached to that promise.

In 2013 the European Union pressed the Ukraine to sign a free trade agreement with it. Russia, which was the biggest trading partner of Ukraine, made a counter offer that was financially better and had less political restrictions attached to it. Then President Victor Yanukovych of Ukraine had to reject the EU agreement. The U.S., together with the German secret service BND, had long standing ties with the right-wing groups in west-Ukraine which had previously cooperated with Nazi Germany and had been attached to the German Nazi-Wehrmacht. The CIA reactivated these groups and instigated a violent color-revolution in Kiev.

That revolution led to a civil war as large parts of the ethic Russians in east Ukraine rejected the new regime that had been installed by a west Ukrainian minority.

While the ethnic Russians in Ukraine lost control over most of their original areas they also soon defeated what was left of the Ukraine army. They did so twice.

Since 2015 the conflict was stalled. The Minsk agreements, under which Ukraine was supposed to became federalized, were signed, but Ukraine stalled their implementation. Meanwhile the U.S. and Britain used the time to reinstate and rearm the Ukrainian army.

By 2021 the Ukraine was ready to attack the People's Republics of Luhansk and Donetsk. Russia activated its army and warned that it would have to interfere with such plans. The imminent launch of an Ukrainian attack was called off. In early 2022 the U.S. gave the Ukrainians a green light to launch their long planned attack. Russia intervened and the current war started.

The U.S. plans behind the war expected that the pre-coordinated western sanctions that immediately followed would ruin Russia, that Russia would be shunned by the rest of the world and that a military defeat of the Russian army would lead to regime change in Moscow.

The Ukraine expected that, after winning a war against its separatists, it would immediately become a member of NATO.

Neither of the (totally unrealistic) expectations was met.

The Ukraine is now obviously losing the war. It will soon need to sign a capitulation like ceasefire agreement with Russia.

But who or what can guarantee that any such agreement will be held up?

NATO membership is no longer an option.

On July 11 a summit of the North Atlantic Council in Vilnius declared that Ukraine would not have to follow the formal Membership Action Plan. But it then replaced the formal MAP conditions for membership with a way more vague formulation:

We will be in a position to extend an invitation to Ukraine to join the Alliance when Allies agree and conditions are met.

The NATO Secretary General was even more explicit:

... unless Ukraine wins this war, there's no membership issue to be discussed at all.

There will be no NATO membership or NATO security guarantees for Ukraine, neither now nor ever.

A direct full security guarantee from Washington to Kiev is also impossible. It would create a high likelihood of a direct war between the U.S. and Russia which would soon become nuclear. The U.S. will not want to risk that.

So when, during the preparations of the Vilnius summit, it had become clear that allies would not agree to Ukraine's membership, U.S. President Biden presented an alternative:

The US is willing to offer Kiev a sort of security arrangement currently offered to Israel instead of membership in NATO, President Joe Biden told CNN in an interview previewed on Friday.
“I don’t think it’s ready for membership in NATO,” Biden said of Ukraine. “I don’t think there is unanimity in NATO about whether or not to bring Ukraine into the NATO family now, at this moment, in the middle of a war.”
“And one of the things I indicated is, the United States would be ready to provide, while the process was going on, and that’s gonna take a while, to provide security a la the security we provide for Israel: providing the weaponry they need, the capacity to defend themselves,” Biden said, adding, “If there is an agreement, if there is a ceasefire, if there is a peace agreement.”

That however is even more unrealistic than a NATO membership. As Geoffrey Aronson convincingly argues:

The relevance of the Israel model embraced by Biden to Ukraine’s security is deeply flawed conceptually and practically.
...
In operational terms, the Israel model is barely relevant to the predicament that Ukraine finds itself in and hardly a good model upon which to build the desired security relationship between the United States, NATO, and Ukraine. In conceptual terms, there is little beyond a superficial comparison between Jerusalem and Kyiv to recommend the concept.
...
U.S.-Israel security ties were born out of three principal elements: (1) Cold War competition in the Middle East; (2) Israel’s overwhelming victory in June 1967; and (3) Israel’s surreptitious development of a nuclear weapons capability from the 1950s onward.
It is all but impossible that Ukraine will be able to exit its war with Russia with the kind of total territorial victory that provided the basis for U.S.-Israel ties after June 1967.
...
In this context, there may well be those in Ukraine (but one hopes not in Washington) who see the Israel model—creating an integrated nuclear weapons option while maintaining nuclear ambiguity as long as the conventional weapons pipeline from Washington is open—as instructive.
But here too reality intrudes. The U.S. bargain with Israel aims explicitly at assuring Israel’s superiority in conventional weapons against any combination of Arab/Iranian enemies. To that end, through FY2020, the United States has provided Israel with $146 billion in military, economic, and missile defense funding—$236 billion in 2018 dollars.
In just the first year of the war, Ukraine received $77 billion from Washington, about one-half of its total military, economic, and humanitarian assistance.
At best, the U.S. military support at current historic levels has won Kyiv a military stalemate. Ukraine, certainly out of NATO and arguably even as a member, will never enjoy an Israeli-style Quality Military Edge (QME) over Moscow, or be able to command the region’s strategic or security agenda as Israel has done in the Middle East.

Russia's might makes even an attempt of an Israel like security guarantee for Ukraine too costly for the U.S. and thereby simply impossible.

There is only one country in the world that can guarantee peace in Ukraine and the security of its borders. That country is Russia!

But any such guarantee will of course come with conditions attached to it. Either Ukraine will accept those or it will never be secure from outer interference.

That is simply a fact of life Ukraine has had to, and will have to live with.

Posted by b on July 25, 2023 at 16:35 UTC | Permalink



===
.
 

Oreally

Right from the start

Cedar Lake

Connecticut Yankee
russian losses must really be significant. they are going to bring back men who are as old as 65, former officers, in next mobilization. also raised the draft age to 30

Russia Raises Upper-Age Limit for Military Reservists


President Vladimir Putin on Monday signed into law a bill to raise the upper age limit for military reservists eligible for mobilization by five years.

The amendments to Russia’s law on military duty and military service introduce a four-year transition period — between 2024 and 2028 — during which the reservist age limit will be gradually raised.

The changes come as Russian authorities have sought to boost troop numbers amid a growing manpower shortage in Ukraine.

For senior officers, the age limit for reservists eligible for mobilization will eventually become 65, while for junior officers it will be raised to 60.

Soldiers, sailors, sergeants, petty officers, warrant officers and midshipmen in Russia’s military reserve forces will be eligible for mobilization up to the age of 55.

For high-ranking officers, the upper age limit of 70 years remains unchanged.

The changes also allow Russia’s military to sign contracts with foreign citizens under the age of 52.

Putin endorsed Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu’s proposal in December to increase Russia’s combat personnel by 30% from 1.15 million to 1.5 million.

Another bill introduced last week raises the conscription age limit — also endorsed by Putin — from the current range of men aged 18-27 to 21-30.
The Russian SMO losses are all lumped together under one umbrella, which consist of the Russian Armed Forces, The Private Military Companies of which there are several, The Donbass Militias which consist of the People's Militia of the Donetsk People's Republic, and the People's Militia of the Luhansk People's Republic which are pro-Russian paramilitaries in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine, under the overall control of the Russian Federation.
They all have suffered losses.
Wagner PC suffered huge losses liberating Artemovsk.

1) It's a great idea to access the RU Armed Forces combined institutional knowledge and experience base that is already available and waiting to be used.
Already trained in areas of basic and specialized military operations.
Support troops not on the front lines,
It's a win-win all the way.

In my country, America, the rule of thumb is it takes 7 support members for ''1 gunfighter'' on the front lines. I don't know Russia's rule of thumb.
Example - A SF member with a bad knee can still shoot, train, advise, and uh, move logistically, (Requisition Supplies as needed).

2) This is a gigantic change which also allow Russia’s military to sign contracts with foreign citizens under the age of 52. This the one to watch.


3) Another bill introduced last week raises the conscription age limit — also endorsed by Putin — from the current range of men aged 18-27 to 21-30.

The thing is that this is not just about all about Ukraine, far from it.

This is all about boosting ''troop numbers'' nation-wide which reflects the awareness that the NATO/EU war threatens the very existence of Russia.
And as we all know, the Russians fight best with divisions.
So, the RuAF will grow and expand now.
And continue to fight in Ukraine, as to draw down NATO munitions, NATO in-country soldiers (Foreigners), NATO military equipment, and so on and so forth.
Following the 3 edicts of the SMO.

This is one of the ''unforseen consequences'' that has grown out of Ukraine's ATO in 2014 which extended to Russia's SMO in Feb, 2022.

IMHO.
 

blueinterceptor

Veteran Member
Like everything American/Western media comes out with, wait for it to shake out in the next 2-36 hours.
It could be something to it or it could be nothing at all.
I have learned not to jump on the bandwagon like ''the rest of the lemmings''.
I listened and watched what happened in the ''1st American war in Afghanistan'' when the Soviet Union invaded in 1979. And ''The Grenada'' Conflict, etc.
Beware when the Western Media '' drumbeats are starting to rev up.
Oh, and I am not a supporter of the Communist Liberal Diversity Democratic Party's President at all.

I understand and agree with what you are saying. . I read this yesterday. Fitton’s tweet was not part of. I teetered back and forth about posting it. When I read who the author was and I saw Fitton had tweeted it, I decided to post it. I’m not one to post this stuf. Simply because I don’t know how to(reliably). It took me a few tries before I could get that to work.
 
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Cedar Lake

Connecticut Yankee
Interesting read from Military Chronicle:

What is wrong with the maps of captured commanders of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: Analysis of the Military Chronicle

The tactical map of the Ukrainian military, which fell into the hands of the soldiers of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, allows us to assess the approach of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to the offensive, and also helps to draw several important conclusions regarding the combat effectiveness of the Ukrainian forces as a whole.

What is this card and whose is it?

The tactical map was supposedly used by one of the surrendered company commanders of the 33rd mechanized brigade. It clearly shows that units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine planned to attack in Zaporizhzhia in two combat groups from the Malaya Tokmachka station to the south, towards the T-0803 highway. Assistance in the offensive on the right flank of the 33rd brigade was supposed to be provided by the infamous unsuccessful offensive and heavy losses of the 47th Motorized Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine "Magura", formed in mid-2022.

Presumably, the tactical map shows a plan of attack on the positions of the RF Armed Forces on June 8, 2023. For the 47th Motorized Brigade, this offensive ended with the massive destruction of the Bradley IFV south of Square 17. What exactly went wrong?

What is the main problem with this card?

The first oddity is the map itself.
This is a Soviet-style paper document with marks characteristic of Soviet (Ukrainian) topographers, despite the fact that the commanders of the 33rd brigade were trained abroad and could use the tactics and maps of the United States and NATO countries. At the same time, an electronic map could help to make changes to information about the combat situation more quickly.

The second oddity: there are no marks on the map for the lines of opening fire, lines of deployment, dismounting and going on the attack. Without this data, it is impossible to effectively plan the actions of units and the risk of losing troops increases.

The third oddity is that the defense line of the RF Armed Forces is for some reason designated as a system of command and observation posts, and not as a continuous defense zone, which it is in reality. Also, the map does not show minefields, which have become the main problem for Ukrainian armored vehicles, including the M2 Bradley infantry fighting vehicle of the 47th Motorized Rifle Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Most likely, this means that the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine planned actions solely based on satellite images or data from drones. In addition, these maps do not give the impression that the advancing units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine had a numerical superiority or fire superiority, critical, basic elements for a successful offensive: the reserves of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are simply not marked on this map, which means that platoon and company commanders could request reinforcements that are not available.

What can be the conclusion?

The map also lacks key information about the fire systems of the Russian Armed Forces or the alleged areas with ambushes or about new fortifications - trenches and dugouts with firing points. This may indicate that the intelligence of the NATO countries did not provide the Armed Forces with up-to-date data, or, even worse, there was no opportunity to provide such information from the very beginning.

It is also curious that the lack of data on the map of the company commander of the Armed Forces of Ukraine was recorded in one of the most well-equipped brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. This is partly why the less well-equipped and less trained units of the Ukrainian army resort to the tactics of "meat assaults" - since they have no other way to get information about the positions of the Russian Armed Forces since the beginning of the offensive.

The lack of reliable information is superimposed on another problem - the lack of experienced junior and senior commanders. Staff officers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in most cases cannot map the necessary information. According to maps with such data, commanders of platoons and companies of the Armed Forces of Ukraine subsequently incorrectly manage the battle, which leads to additional losses.


MAP
Paste into browser
 

Abert

Veteran Member
I'm a bit confused, which may not be hard to do, I admit. But.......

Didn't Russia announce when the grain deal fell through, that any, as in ANY ships going to Ukraine ports, would be considered a military target, and subject to boarding? Wouldn't that be like a.....blockade?

If that memory is correct.

Then, .....what? No one believed them? (Aaaaa they're just kidding)

But now that the West, Briton, US, NATO has said the "B" word, (blockade) everyone is all up in arms over it? (They really mean it *gasp* as they grab their chest and say, it's the big one)

I mean, come on, this is war. I was amazed that they even had a grain deal to start with.

Has everybody in the west forgotten what war is? It's more than a 3 letter word.

Wait until Russia cuts off the oil Ukraine is using to fight this war. Y'all did know that Turkey is buying oil from Russia refining it and sending it to Ukraine? Right?

Everybody in the west will be up in arms over that, and like ya know dude all the children will die. Sniff.
Effectively this is an Economic Weapon Russia is using - a "war zone" no ships will be able to get insurance - that is why Ukraine wants the EU (or someone) to cover them - unlikely. This should be enough to stop 99% of the shipping going to Ukraine - it may take an "example" to make the point but Ukraine ports are closed.
 

CaryC

Has No Life - Lives on TB
This is all about boosting ''troop numbers'' nation-wide which reflects the awareness that the NATO/EU war threatens the very existence of Russia.
And as we all know, the Russians fight best with divisions.
So, the RuAF will grow and expand now.
And continue to fight in Ukraine, as to draw down NATO munitions, NATO in-country soldiers (Foreigners), NATO military equipment, and so on and so forth.
Following the 3 edicts of the SMO.
While I am not one who believes that Russia will move beyond Ukraine (I am subject to being just as wrong as anyone else). I think that Russia will do what they said they will do. Eastern Ukraine as a Russian block to prevent any more attacks on ethnic Russians in that area and in the south - Crimea etc.

And western Ukraine a neutral nation.

However I do think you are right in that Russia is, and will, up their military overall. 1) Due to a fear of an ongoing NATO invasion, whether that is realistic or not is beside the point, they think it 2) there is at least one more battle for them, in the middle east.

Personally, I'm waiting for this one in Ukraine to end, in some form or fashion, which looks to be on the horizon, and the one in the middle east to ramp up.
 

Abert

Veteran Member
Well not to be undone - while we have Blinken (channeling alternative realities) - the Brits have their own version.

Sir Lawrence engages enthusiastically in psychological projection — i.e., he insists that Putin and Russia are isolated and wracked by low morale when the reality is that Ukraine, with its lack of air power, mobile air defense and declining stocks of artillery shells, is faltering and has no discernible path to stalemate, much less victory.
 

Walrus

Veteran Member
Square profile picture
The Economist
@TheEconomist
2m

America has promised to send Ukraine one of them, but the White House is concerned about escalation. Ukraine promises it would not fire long-range American weapons into Russia. Joe Biden is not yet convinced
View: https://twitter.com/TheEconomist/status/1683891621979357213?s=20
Gosh, you think Bai-Den thinks Ukraine is lying? I wonder why he would think that!

Oh yeah .... Ukraine promised that they wouldn't use cluster weapons on civilians.

Oops.

War crimes again. Going to be some nasty tribunals for years, for whoever lives through this mess.
 

Walrus

Veteran Member
Your tax dollars, hard at work supporting the economy, just not our economy:

(I think the head line says it all)

The above post which references blackmail has been in effect since before the start of this SMO. It's still driving Bai-Den's decisions as he gets even more desperate.
 

Abert

Veteran Member
While I am not one who believes that Russia will move beyond Ukraine (I am subject to being just as wrong as anyone else). I think that Russia will do what they said they will do. Eastern Ukraine as a Russian block to prevent any more attacks on ethnic Russians in that area and in the south - Crimea etc.

And western Ukraine a neutral nation.

However I do think you are right in that Russia is, and will, up their military overall. 1) Due to a fear of an ongoing NATO invasion, whether that is realistic or not is beside the point, they think it 2) there is at least one more battle for them, in the middle east.

Personally, I'm waiting for this one in Ukraine to end, in some form or fashion, which looks to be on the horizon, and the one in the middle east to ramp up.
I guess the loss of over 20+ Million in a war gives a nation a much clearer view of reality.
From the end of WW2 Russia has continued to keep their options open - through the last 75 years of hot and cold relations with the West - that experience - never to be repeated - is ALWAYS in the back of their minds.

The massive war factories of the Soviet Union never shut down - were never turned into condos - now that infrastructure is being turned back on into full production. Their primary Tank Factory - while currently producing and upgrading some 1000 a year - at full production (as in the Soviet days) was producing 4000 a year.
Reports of artillery shells - they are now producing in ONE MONTH what they produced all of last year - across the board the old Soviet war engine is revving up.

So these modification in military recruitment are100% in sync with the overall prep for a possible (more likely every day) total war with the West (US)

While I agree Russia's current objective is only Ukraine - they only want a buffer. The US has made it 100% clear their FINAL goal is the total Economic, Political (and if necessary physical) destruction of the current Russian state.
Russia has little control over what the US does - but they are making it quite clear that they will not go down without a fight - a fight that would be taken to the US homeland - is the US ready for millions killed - we may find out.
 
Ukraine currently experiencing perhaps the largest missile barrage since the beginning of the SMO.

Multiple waves of various heavy (expensive) munitions.
===
.
 

Oreally

Right from the start
Gosh, you think Bai-Den thinks Ukraine is lying? I wonder why he would think that!

Oh yeah .... Ukraine promised that they wouldn't use cluster weapons on civilians.

Oops.

War crimes again. Going to be some nasty tribunals for years, for whoever lives through this mess.
there are no 'civilians' in the areas where the cluster munitions are being used. none.
zero.
 

Millwright

Knuckle Dragger
_______________
there are no 'civilians' in the areas where the cluster munitions are being used. none.
zero.

There will be, cluster munitions are a gift that keeps on giving.

Not much different than old land mines.

The failure rate on initial deployment is up to 40%.

There is a reason that their use is so controversial.



Your apparent condonement of their use shows a penchant for blindly swallowing whatever is said that is pro-uke.

What else are you missing that is propaganda and not reality?
 
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