ALERT RUSSIA INVADES UKRAINE - Consolidated Thread

CaryC

CaryC

Has No Life - Lives on TB

Putin: Victory In Ukraine Is "Unavoidable" & Invasion Was Effort To "Stop This War" In Donbas​

In a highly anticipated speech Wednesday on the occasion of the 80th anniversary of the Red Army breaking the Nazi siege of St. Petersburg (during Soviet times: Leningrad) on Jan. 18, 1943, President Vladimir Putin said that victory in Ukraine is "unavoidable".
Addressing military veterans, Putin said, "Large-scale combat operations involving heavy weapons, artillery, tanks and aircraft haven’t stopped in Donbas since 2014." He added: "All that we are doing today as part of the special military operation is an attempt to stop this war. This is the meaning of our operation — protecting people who live on those territories."
The talk was filled with the usual themes he's emphasized since the February invasion, but absent was what many pundits and officials in the West were anticipating when the speech was first unveiled a day ago: formal declaration of war.
But the full mobilization has yet to come; instead, he again reviewed Moscow's perspective of the causes underlying the conflict. He asserted that Russia attempted to negotiate a peaceful settlement to the years-running war in Donbas, in order to prevent the need to send troops, but emphasized "we were just duped and cheated" by Ukraine and the West.
He also said that Russia had a duty to protect the Russian-speakers of eastern Ukraine. The Zelensky government has of late cracked down even harder on Russian culture, placing severe restrictions on Russian books and music, and even arresting Ukrainian Orthodox clerics that maintain unity with the Moscow Patriarchate church.
The Associated Press references some interesting background regarding Putin's personal family history, which makes the West's 'Putler' references hollow and shallow, given that the Nazi siege of Leningrad (Petersburg) directly impacted Putin's family:
Putin on Wednesday laid a wreath at the city’s Piskaryov memorial cemetery, where 420,000 civilian victims of the siege and 70,000 Soviet soldiers were buried. He also put flowers in a section where his brother, who died as a child during the siege, was buried in a mass grave.
Putin said once that his mother was declared dead and was about to be taken for burial when his father, who had just come home on a visit from the frontlines, managed to ward off a funeral team at the last moment and helped her recover.
Click to expand...
Putin also on Wednesday toured a defense factory in St. Petersburg, where he pledged to the workers additional wartime benefits, while also touting advances in national arms production...
Meanwhile, just as Putin is vowing to see through the military campaign until 'victory' is achieved, Washington too remains entrenched in its position.
On Tuesday Secretary of State Antony Blinken underscored that peace with Russia is unacceptable. Blinken said the following, according to a press readout:
"...but I think you only have to look at Putin’s own words in a recent conversation with President Erdoğan of Türkiye in which he says unless and until Ukraine accepts the new territorial realities, as he put it, there’s nothing to negotiate. [...] That of course is in and of itself a nonstarter."
Click to expand...
"The fastest way to bring this war to a just and durable end, to get to diplomacy, to get to a negotiation, is to give Ukraine a strong hand on the battlefield. That’s exactly what we’re doing," Blinken continued.

Putin: Victory In Ukraine Is "Unavoidable" & Invasion Was Effort To "Stop This War" In Donbas | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com www.zerohedge.com
 
C

Cedar Lake

Connecticut Yankee
von Koehler said:
Seems like the Ukrainian forces are being turned inside out: they are exhausting their supply of old Soviet era equipment but are rapidly adopting NATO level of new arms,
In effect Ukraine is becoming almost a NATO member already.
Click to expand...
CaryC said:
Just a couple of comments according to some articles up thread.

Ukrainian General stated emphatically in an interview that Ukraine was a de-facto NATO country now.
Click to expand...
Actually it was Ukrainian Defense Minister Alexei Reznikov said in an interview on 2023-01-13 with the British Broadcasting Corporation that "Ukraine as a country, and the armed forces of Ukraine, became a member of NATO. 2023-01-13
De facto, not de jure (by law).
Because we have weaponry, and the understanding of how to use it,".,

According to NATO's website today: Ukraine is a Enhanced Opportunity Partner, there is no
De facto Member.
A De facto Member is a talking point, part of a narrative, smoke & fog
  • In June 2020, Ukraine became an Enhanced Opportunity Partner (EOP). This is a status offered to participants in NATO's Partnership Interoperability Initiative that have made particularly significant contributions to NATO operations and other Alliance objectives. EOP status works as a facilitator, providing Ukraine preferential access to NATO's interoperability toolbox, including exercises, training, exchange of information and situational awareness. The other EOPs are Australia, Finland, Georgia, Jordan and Sweden.
 
CaryC

CaryC

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Cedar Lake said:
Actually it was Ukrainian Defense Minister Alexei Reznikov said in an interview on 2023-01-13 with the British Broadcasting Corporation that "Ukraine as a country, and the armed forces of Ukraine, became a member of NATO. 2023-01-13
De facto, not de jure (by law).
Because we have weaponry, and the understanding of how to use it,".,

According to NATO's website today: Ukraine is a Enhanced Opportunity Partner, there is no
De facto Member.
A De facto Member is a talking point, part of a narrative, smoke & fog
  • In June 2020, Ukraine became an Enhanced Opportunity Partner (EOP). This is a status offered to participants in NATO's Partnership Interoperability Initiative that have made particularly significant contributions to NATO operations and other Alliance objectives. EOP status works as a facilitator, providing Ukraine preferential access to NATO's interoperability toolbox, including exercises, training, exchange of information and situational awareness. The other EOPs are Australia, Finland, Georgia, Jordan and Sweden.
Click to expand...
I understand your point and am not arguing it but would just note that Ukrainian Defense Minister (I stand corrected) meant by defacto:

While not on paper was actually the case. As with Puerto Rico, which has all the benefits of a state, without representation and taxes. They are acting like a member and getting the benefits of a member without being a member (representation and taxes).

de fac·to
[ˌdā ˈfaktō]

ADVERB
  1. in fact, or in effect, whether by right or not: Often contrasted with de jure.
 
LightEcho

LightEcho

Has No Life - Lives on TB
You can be assured Russia is keeping count. For every Russian soldier killed (thanks to US & NATO) there will be 1000 Americans killed. England and the other contributors will likewise be hit with enough to stun them into silence.

The "free world" is controlled by devils like Kissinger, Soros, Gates, and the many demonic minions pulling the strings. We cannot boast about our freedom, justice, kindness, morality, wisdom, peacefulness.... because we haven't got any. Broken arrow.
 
C

Cedar Lake

Connecticut Yankee
CaryC said:
I understand your point and am not arguing it but would just note that Ukrainian Defense Minister (I stand corrected) meant by defacto:

While not on paper was actually the case. As with Puerto Rico, which has all the benefits of a state, without representation and taxes. They are acting like a member and getting the benefits of a member without being a member (representation and taxes).

de fac·to
[ˌdā ˈfaktō]

ADVERB
  1. in fact, or in effect, whether by right or not: Often contrasted with de jure.
Click to expand...
I wasn't correcting you, I just wanted to specifically point out who said what and how it was said.
Ukrainian Defense Minister Alexei Reznikov said that "Ukraine as a country, and the armed forces of Ukraine, became a member of NATO, De facto.
Because we have weaponry, and the understanding of how to use it,".
 
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WTSR

WTSR

Veteran Member
CaryC said:
Just a couple of comments according to some articles up thread.

Ukrainian General stated emphatically in an interview that Ukraine was a de-facto NATO country now.

Russian equipment keeps/jams NATO/Ukraine artillery from finding Russian guns, so are basically shooting in the dark. So accuracy is diminished. Remember called "Penicillin".
Click to expand...
I called it NATO MEMBERSHIP BY DEFAULT some months ago on this thread.
 
CaryC

CaryC

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Cedar Lake said:
I wasn't correcting you, I just wanted to specifically point out who said what.
Ukrainian Defense Minister Alexei Reznikov said that "Ukraine as a country, and the armed forces of Ukraine, became a member of NATO .
Because we have weaponry, and the understanding of how to use it,".
Click to expand...
Yeah we cool. No problem. But if you was correcting me......LOL Just poking.

I would say his statement was wrong or otherwise why the 600 being trained in Germany?

O wait those that did understand it are now dead, and they need a 3rd Army, to replace the first 2. Ok got you Alex. Wait I need to make that a question............What's behind door No. 3. for 600.
 
wait-n-see

wait-n-see

Veteran Member

US-NATO Prepare Escalation in Desperate Bid to Turn the Tide (again) in Ukraine​


Runtime - 25:28

Jan 18, 2023 Update on the conflict in Ukraine for January 18, 2023.

- Bakhmut faces encirclement by Russian forces;

- The Netherlands is considering sending Patriot missile systems after West blames Russia for residential building strike;

- Ukrainian presidential adviser Arestovich has resigned after suggesting the building was hit because of a failed Ukrainian interception of a Russian cruise missile;

- The building strike appears to be serving as a pretext for a planned escalation by the US and its allies;

- Ukraine also lost its interior minister to a helicopter crash;

- The Western media admits current aid to Ukraine is not sufficient, although suggested increases will unlikely turn the tide;

- The US and its allies are preparing for their monthly meeting discussing expanded military aid to Ukraine on January 20, 2023;

References:
NYT - Netherlands Considers Sending Patriot Missile System to Ukraine: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/17/us...
BBC - Ukraine War: Zelensky adviser resigns over Dnipro remarks: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe...
CNN - Biden reaches a vital new tipping point on Ukraine: https://edition.cnn.com/2023/01/18/po...
BBC - Ukraine war: Who was Interior Minister Denys Monastyrsky?: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe...
The Atlantic - Western Aid to Ukraine Is Still Not Enough: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/arc...
US Department of Defense - Secretary of Defense, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Travel to Germany for Ukraine Defense Contact Group Meetings Jan. 17, 2023: https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases...
 
Tom McDowell

Tom McDowell

BAMN
RT 18:51

More Tanks & Ukrainians training in US - Col Doug Macgregor​

73,859 views
Streamed live 20 hours ago

RT 21:28

Ritter - More Tanks & Ukrainians training in US​

89,935 views
Streamed live 22 hours ago

RT 16:02

Ukraine. Military Summary And Analysis 18.01.2023​

4,053 views
Premiered 28 minutes ago

Military Summary

80.7K subscribers

This video describes the military situation in Ukraine on the 18th of January 2023

====

The titles on Judge Napolitano - Judging Freedom videos are not descriptive relating the majority of subject matter.

Ritter goes into depth on the Nuclear War scenario.

Col. McGreggor cover a wide range of topics, Ukrainian casualties, cutting off Ukrainian (NATO) supply lines, and his fears on Nuclear War.

Dima illustrates the methodical approach to Russian strategy. It does seem that Dima is focused on land gains. The reality is the Russians are wholly invested in demilitarization and de-nazification. In this case Russsia has exercised strategic moves which result in reducing the Ukrainian abilities to make war. Reductions in number of weapons and manpower.

A few of you may recall I've been following this subject for much more than just the past year.
I've consistently stated that this entire fiasco was ill advised for a variety of factual reasons. Several times I've voiced an opinion the US should sue for peace. This of course is considered an absurdity.

Not many of the citizens of the USA are invested in a war with Russia, infact the majority has had absolutely no say whatsoever in our participation. Scott Ritter (say what you will about him), speaks to the capabilities of those leading the US and the collective West in this endeavor. Keep in mind he is experienced in arms control agreements as a direct participant.

What I glean is the logical progression of the movements by both parties will end in catastrophe. Tit for tat, if else, move countermove. Frankly speaking I really can not envision a method which will appear on the near horizon which can avert such.

There are a few board members who understand what I'm trying to convey. There are also more that a few which refuse to see. My maxim has been, "You can lead a man to information, but you can't make them think."

For over twenty years I've participated here, and during that time I found the best practice is not to engage in rigorous debate. Be careful of what you say and who you say it to. Time passes quickly, posts can last forever.

It is in this practice not responding to bait is sometimes difficult, yet in this case we have more at stake in terms of real survival than at the time of the boards inception.

How then can we help to bring an end to this madness? Call on our representatives? Find a safe space and hunker down? Join a coalition of the unwilling?

I've mentioned John Titor a time or two. Is it deemed we must endure nuclear strikes on American soil - for our own good?

Sorry to ramble with no conclusion, grist for the mill, I suppose.

===
.
 
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vector7

vector7

Dot Collector
Doc1

Doc1

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Oreally said:
a question for everyone . . .

is the average person on the street back home aware of all this? and how serious it is?
Click to expand...
Oreally, as you probably know, (most) Americans tend to be extremely insular and neither conversant about, nor concerned with foreign matters.

If I might draw a precious metals analogy, if you asked the average American what he or she thought about pre-1965 90% silver US coins, they'd look at you as if you were speaking a foreign language and this is while inflation is eating households alive. If you asked what they thought about Ukraine they might offer that Russia was bad or that Ukraine was good - neither of which is entirely true - but you'd be getting a very condensed and barely remembered snippet of something they heard on TV.

Never forget that TB2K members are not representative of average Americans. Our members are more intelligent than the average bear and most of us are interested in foreign affairs. That's certainly not true of the majority. This is why TPTB are so easily able to control the masses with sportsball, pop culture and sophomoric psychology.

Personally, I think that there's a greater possibility of nuclear war now than at the time of the Cuban Missile Crisis. (Please readers, understand that I'm certainly not saying that there will be a nuclear war, only that the chances are greater.) Even Mr. Putin has stated that any US nuclear weapons use would result in a world-ending response! Now, Oreally, if anything should get Americans to pay attention to Ukraine, it should be that, right? Nope. You won't even hear of that possibility quietly breathed on the MSM.

So my friend, if you are counting on US popular opinion to have any effect on Ukrainian policy, you will be sorely disappointed. If it's any consolation, things have always been thus with Americans. Virtually no one had heard of Pearl Harbor until December 7th, 1941 and very few were paying any attention to Japan. Similarly, no one really cared about - or even thought of - Vietnam in the early '60s. It was only after the draft started and the domestic consequences of that began to play out on the US stage that it became an issue people payed attention to.

Best
Doc
 
CaryC

CaryC

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Doc1 said:
Oreally, as you probably know, (most) Americans tend to be extremely insular and neither conversant about, nor concerned with foreign matters.

If I might draw a precious metals analogy, if you asked the average American what he or she thought about pre-1965 90% silver US coins, they'd look at you as if you were speaking a foreign language and this is while inflation is eating households alive. If you asked what they thought about Ukraine they might offer that Russia was bad or that Ukraine was good - neither of which is entirely true - but you'd be getting a very condensed and barely remembered snippet of something they heard on TV.

Never forget that TB2K members are not representative of average Americans. Our members are more intelligent than the average bear and most of us are interested in foreign affairs. That's certainly not true of the majority. This is why TPTB are so easily able to control the masses with sportsball, pop culture and sophomoric psychology.

Personally, I think that there's a greater possibility of nuclear war now than at the time of the Cuban Missile Crisis. (Please readers, understand that I'm certainly not saying that there will be a nuclear war, only that the chances are greater.) Even Mr. Putin has stated that any US nuclear weapons use would result in a world-ending response! Now, Oreally, if anything should get Americans to pay attention to Ukraine, it should be that, right? Nope. You won't even hear of that possibility quietly breathed on the MSM.

So my friend, if you are counting on US popular opinion to have any effect on Ukrainian policy, you will be sorely disappointed. If it's any consolation, things have always been thus with Americans. Virtually no one had heard of Pearl Harbor until December 7th, 1941 and very few were paying any attention to Japan. Similarly, no one really cared about - or even thought of - Vietnam in the early '60s. It was only after the draft started and the domestic consequences of that began to play out on the US stage that it became an issue people payed attention to.

Best
Doc
Click to expand...
Yeah it was a fad that has faded to the back burner. Moving on. My purple hair is growing out, dang.

You always make great points and thanks for putting them up.
 
A

Abert

Veteran Member
CaryC said:
Think about who said it, and can others in the admin say it, and what he said.
Click to expand...
With Arestovich (a key adviser to Zelensky and part of the inner circle) quitting / being removed brings to mind the old saying about: like rats abandoning a sinking ship!
If nothing else Arestovich is a politicians politician - especially in Ukraine where it can be (and is) a real Life or Death occupation. Normally an action like his - especially attacking Zelensky for his policies would be a fast death sentence! That he is still above ground implies that he must have the support of a number of other key officials. Hard to read the tea leaves (even with google translate) but this points to likely a split within the ruling circles in Ukraine.
So the question is WHY - this war and related $$$$ has been VERY VERY good for this ruling circle (of the most corrupt nation in Europe). Could it be that the information they have (not the PR SPIN) shows that this war is about over for Ukraine?
After Millions displaced, hundreds of thousands dead, massive destruction and likely the loss of half the country the remaining population may not be too happy with their Actor President and his team - kind of like the Italian treatment of Mussolini ( and his mistress Clara Petacci) at the end of WW2 - especially when the facts come out that this could have ended in April. Or more - never need to start.

Politicians - like RATS know when to abandon a sinking ship
BTW - opted to not post a photo of how this ended for Mussolini - you can look it up - GRAPHIC
 
C

Cedar Lake

Connecticut Yankee
Abert said:
With Arestovich (a key adviser to Zelensky and part of the inner circle) quitting / being removed brings to mind the old saying about: like rats abandoning a sinking ship!
If nothing else Arestovich is a politicians politician - especially in Ukraine where it can be (and is) a real Life or Death occupation. Normally an action like his - especially attacking Zelensky for his policies would be a fast death sentence! That he is still above ground implies that he must have the support of a number of other key officials. Hard to read the tea leaves (even with google translate) but this points to likely a split within the ruling circles in Ukraine.
So the question is WHY - this war and related $$$$ has been VERY VERY good for this ruling circle (of the most corrupt nation in Europe). Could it be that the information they have (not the PR SPIN) shows that this war is about over for Ukraine?
After Millions displaced, hundreds of thousands dead, massive destruction and likely the loss of half the country the remaining population may not be too happy with their Actor President and his team - kind of like the Italian treatment of Mussolini ( and his mistress Clara Petacci) at the end of WW2 - especially when the facts come out that this could have ended in April. Or more - never need to start.

Politicians - like RATS know when to abandon a sinking ship
BTW - opted to not post a photo of how this ended for Mussolini - you can look it up - GRAPHIC
Click to expand...
So the question is WHY - this war and related $$$$ has been VERY VERY good for this ruling circle of oligarchs/clans (of the most corrupt nation in Europe)?
Interesting reading of the most powerful political/business Ukrainian clans in Western Ukraine, Kyiv, Lviv etc. Very dark background.
 
K

Kennori

Contributing Member
Z's most successful accomplishment was a year run as the President of Ukraine in a TV show. Before that he was a gay actor/clown who made videos dancing naked in warehouses and playing the piano 4-hands but with a fifth member. He's worth about a billion and owns multiple safehouses around the world including Miami. He was installed and is playing his part to perfection. He was born a Jew and I believe has close ties with many wealthy oligarchs on both coastlines. When his usefulness wanes he will meet with an open window or his personal helicopter will plow into a hillside on the way to Geneva. He is as legitimate as Brandon.
 
C

Cedar Lake

Connecticut Yankee
Oreally said:
a question for everyone . . .

is the average person on the street back home aware of all this? and how serious it is?
Click to expand...
Yes & No.
In some of the big cities there have been a couple demostrations for peace.....the stop fighting now, give peace a chance, open peace talks, stuff like that, etc. Mostly younger people, college students.
Seems like it might spread when the weather warms up.
 
R

raven

TB Fanatic
Cedar Lake said:
Yes & No.
In some of the big cities there have been a couple demostrations for peace.....the stop fighting now, give peace a chance, open peace talks, stuff like that, etc. Mostly younger people, college students.
Seems like it might spread when the weather warms up.
Click to expand...
The answer to the question of how engaged is the typical American can be estimated by "clicking" the "New Posts" on TB2K and comparing the number of threads which reference the war in Ukraine with the number of other unrelated threads.

This can be further refined by looking at the Ukraine War thread and counting the number of unique posters to that thread - over maybe a weeks time.

And it can be further refined by counting the number of unique users who click "like" or "dislike".

Then you can compare these numbers with a statistical average of the number of unique visitors to TB2K.

I would bet that the SBU already has those stats considering their interest.

Once you have those counts, based on the people I know including the barber, waitress at the bar, and the butcher . . .
I would say that the average American's interest in the topic is less than half the statistics.

And people are even less concerned about the possibility of nuclear war - I don't think it even crosses their mind from one day to the next. Heck, most of the people on this forum don't actually believe nuclear war is a possibility.

And TB2K is such an obscure forum (no offense meant) it would seem to be pretty desperate for "them" to expend resources in order to influence either public opinion (because the public isn't here) or the decisions of influential policy makers (because they aren't here either).
 
J

JeanCat

Veteran Member
raven said:
The answer to the question of how engaged is the typical American can be estimated by "clicking" the "New Posts" on TB2K and comparing the number of threads which reference the war in Ukraine with the number of other unrelated threads.

This can be further refined by looking at the Ukraine War thread and counting the number of unique posters to that thread - over maybe a weeks time.

And it can be further refined by counting the number of unique users who click "like" or "dislike".

Then you can compare these numbers with a statistical average of the number of unique visitors to TB2K.

I would bet that the SBU already has those stats considering their interest.

Once you have those counts, based on the people I know including the barber, waitress at the bar, and the butcher . . .
I would say that the average American's interest in the topic is less than half the statistics.

And people are even less concerned about the possibility of nuclear war - I don't think it even crosses their mind from one day to the next. Heck, most of the people on this forum don't actually believe nuclear war is a possibility.

And TB2K is such an obscure forum (no offense meant) it would seem to be pretty desperate for "them" to expend resources in order to influence either public opinion (because the public isn't here) or the decisions of influential policy makers (because they aren't here either).
Click to expand...
There may be influential policy makers here incognito.
 
Shadow

Shadow

Swift, Silent,...Sleepy
raven said:
And TB2K is such an obscure forum (no offense meant) it would seem to be pretty desperate for "them" to expend resources in order to influence either public opinion (because the public isn't here) or the decisions of influential policy makers (because they aren't here either).
Click to expand...
I think we here are quite immune to influence by policy makers.

Shadow
 
R

raven

TB Fanatic
If influential policy makers follow this forum, based on prior performance,
they do not seem to be influenced, deterred, or even slowed down from their activities
based on opinions expressed here.
LOL.

Out of 330 million people in the US there are about 330 people online here.
330 people divided by 330,000,000 = 0.000001
That is really getting the word out - LOL
1674093294827.png
 
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C

Cedar Lake

Connecticut Yankee

Putin introduces bill to cancel Russia's treaties with Council of Europe​

18 january, 2023 wednesday
03:24
WAR AGAINST UKRAINE
182337_putin_reuters_new_960x380_0.png


Vladimir Putin has submitted to the State Duma a bill to abolish international treaties of the Russian Federation with the Council of Europe, including the Convention on Human Rights​

Russian propaganda media reported the information.
International treaties will cease to be in force in Russia on March 16, 2023. It concerns the following treaties:
  • Charter of the Council of Europe;
  • General Agreement on Privileges and Immunities of the Council of Europe;
  • Convention for the Protection of Human Rights and Fundamental Freedoms, as well as ten protocols thereto;
  • European Convention on the Suppression of Terrorism;
  • European Charter of Local Self-Government;
  • European Social Charter.

  • Russian President Vladimir Putin instructed to expand the Russian army to 1.5 million servicemen over the next 3 years.
 
wait-n-see

wait-n-see

Veteran Member
Sorry, article is behind a paywall, so this is all I can see. At this rate, won't be any Ukraine left by the time someone in the west actually sends a couple of the "wonder weapon main battle tanks" to them.

@@@

Berlin Won’t Allow Exports of German Tanks to Ukraine Unless U.S. Sends Its Own

North Atlantic Treaty Organization allies have over 2,000 German-made Leopard tanks​

By Bojan Pancevski
Follow

and Elena Cherney
Follow

Updated Jan. 18, 2023 7:45 pm ET

BERLIN—Germany won’t allow allies to ship German-made tanks to Ukraine to help its defense against Russia nor send its own systems unless the U.S. agrees to send American-made battle tanks, senior German officials said on Wednesday.

North Atlantic Treaty Organization allies have over 2,000 German-made Leopard tanks, considered to be among the most sophisticated in the world, according to the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies.


@@@@

However, I did track this down..... wait-n-see

@@@@

Germany: No Leopard tanks to Kiev unless US agrees to send its Abrams

By Al Mayadeen English
Source: Wall Street Journal
18 Jan 23:41

WSJ reports that Berlin will not allow sending German-made tanks from allied countries to Ukraine until Washington approves sending US-made Abrams main battle tanks.

Berlin will not allow allies to send German-made tanks to Kiev unless Washington agrees to ship to Ukraine US-made tanks, a German senior official stated on Wednesday according to The Wall Street Journal.

The International Institute for Strategic Studies reported that NATO countries have more than 2,000 German-made Leopard tanks, which are considered to be one of the most advanced battle tanks currently in the world.

Earlier, several European countries announced readiness to provide Ukraine with German-made battle tanks if Berlin approves it.

Among these countries are Finland, Denmark, and Poland, while the UK said it would ship some 14 Challenger 2 battle tanks and an older version of the advanced Leopard.

The UK became the first country to announce plans for the delivery of heavy battle tanks to Kiev. The supply of the Challenger 2 tanks and additional artillery systems are intended to assist Ukrainian forces "push back the Russian troops," said British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak.

“One can’t differentiate between direct exports (of German-made tanks) and exports by third countries,” a German official said on Wednesday, the media outlet reported.

Sending advanced, complex military equipment to Ukraine would be considered as a major escalation by the West in its arming of Kiev, which Germany has repeatedly warned against due to the increased risk of causing a direct clash between NATO and Russia, noted the news site.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced earlier today that Berlin is “strategically interlocked” with its allies and partners regarding the decisions on how to provide support to Ukraine, which also includes tanks.

According to the WSJ, a meeting between representatives of 50 countries supporting Ukraine, known as the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, is planned to take place on Friday at the American Ramstein Air Base in Germany, where they will discuss a new batch of military aid to Ukraine.

According to informed diplomats from several NATO states, the approval to send German-made Leopard tanks from third countries will be one of the main topics of the meeting.

Despite all public discussions regarding sending German tanks to Ukraine, officials from Berlin said no official requests have been submitted so far, noting that when such requests come through, the government would respond quickly, adding that the approval period might span between a few days and a few weeks.

A senior European official, however, stated that it is unlikely that Germany will make a decision in the upcoming meeting on Friday to allow sending the Leopard tanks to Kiev.

US refusal to send its own main battle tanks making Scholz reluctant

Berlin's government is currently divided on the matter, the news site added.

Parties in the Chancellor's coalition, including the Free Democrats and the Green Party, are in favor of sending the tanks to Kiev, while his left-leaning party, the Social Democrats, have been hesitant on the decision, especially since Washington is rejecting to send its Abrams main battle tanks.

In April last year, Scholz suggested that sending any Western tanks to Ukraine would increase the risk of a nuclear war between NATO and Russia.

However, according to two of his aides, as per the WSJ, his concerns have calmed as a group of global powers, including close allies to Moscow, such as China's President Xi Jinping, have denounced threats of using nuclear arms in Ukraine.

Yet, the German Chancellor remains wary, the news site added.

Scholz responded to a question addressed to him during the World Economic Forum in Davos earlier today regarding his reluctance to send Leopard battle tanks to Ukraine, stressing that he was worried that the war in Ukraine could become a global conflict.

“The Ukrainians can rely on our support in their courageous fight but it is also clear that we want to avoid this becoming a war between Russia and NATO,” he said.

Earlier today, citing industry sources, the German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ) reported that there is a possibility that Germany may ship 10-15 Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine this year.

This comes after the chief executive of German defense group Rheinmetall, Armin Papperger, told Germany's Bild am Sonntag that even though his firm houses 22 Leopard 2 tanks, and 88 Leopard 1 tanks, it would still take about a year to ship them to Ukraine.

The German army has already given up most of its Leopard tanks of older designs and exported them to Turkey, Greece, and Denmark, among other clients. The army still possesses around 300 modern versions, but they have no plans of selling them. The army reportedly refused to provide additional details on the strengths, and equipment of associations, or units.
 
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