ALERT Regional middleast war thread Israel and Iran at war

jward

passin' thru
zerohedge
@zerohedge

IRAN IS WILLING TO EXERCISE RESTRAINT AND HAS NO INTENTION OF FURTHER ESCALATING THE SITUATION - CHINESE STATE MEDIA

7:03 PM · Apr 15, 2024
9,892
Views
The Spectator Index
@spectatorindex

JUST IN: Iranian foreign minister tells his Chinese counterpart that Tehran does not want further escalation

7:01 PM · Apr 15, 2024
6,492
Views
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
I was talking to an extended family member that was special forces for 20 years. Retired last year.

He doesn’t believe that 50% of the cruise and ballistic rockets were failed on launch or in route.

He believes the US military used a new Skunk Works PFM (pure f’n’ magic) project weapon in theater. He believes it’s a laser like weapon that destroys electronics on contact, unlike typical laser that destroy by heat.

He thinks they wanted to scare the crap out of Russia, China and Iran with the failure of this attack on Israel.

He also believes that this weapon will most likely be used in the offensive attack to take out anti-aircraft weapons. He doesn’t think Israel’s response has to be big. It just has to prove to their enemies that they stand no chance on offense or defense in a real war.

Time will tell.

If it exists it's probably microwave based as described.
 

jward

passin' thru
Israel Radar
@IsraelRadar_com

17 Iranian officers killed in strikes since start of Gaza war; Israeli defense official: The idea that Israel fights Iran’s proxies but nothing happens to Iran is over. via @WallaNews
 

colonel holman

Veteran Member
The Spectator Index
@spectatorindex

JUST IN: Iranian foreign minister tells his Chinese counterpart that Tehran does not want further escalation

7:01 PM · Apr 15, 2024
6,492
Views
Could be Israel defenses were way way more impressive than Iran had anticipated, or maybe got stood-up by their “partners” not jumping in, or reached a realization that Israel‘s defense effectiveness points to an offensive response Iran does not want to face. Maybe Iran had a come-to-Jesus moment (ironic)
 

Zoner

Veteran Member
From Martin Armstrong's private blog:
"Every action inspires a reaction. The US intervention in defending Israel was a huge mistake for now that justifies Russia defending Iran against any direct attack by Israel. Russia has now dispatched a navy frigate, the Marshal Shaposhnikov, which is equipped with the Kinzhal Supersonic Missiles to the Mediterranean Sea via the Suez Canal.

Russia can now claim the same right to defend Iran. That's what happens when we have Neocons running the Department of State who have been waging wars since Vietnam and have NEVER won a single war yet.

Anyone who believes for a second that Ukraine shot down Russia's Kinzhal Supersonic Missiles, which was said to get more money, fails to understand proxy wars. You NEVER use your most secret weapons, for that allows your opponent to study them and prepare a defense. This is why all the weapons and F16s sent to Ukraine are old, obsolete versions.

The Kremlin has confirmed the warship's deployment to the region, stating that it will continue to carry out its assigned tasks as per the expedition plan. The Iranian assault was a TEST which clearly the US took the bait. They used slow-moving drones to see who would come out to defend Israel. Now they know."
 

jward

passin' thru
Could be Israel defenses were way way more impressive than Iran had anticipated, or maybe got stood-up by their “partners” not jumping in, or reached a realization that Israel‘s defense effectiveness points to an offensive response Iran does not want to face. Maybe Iran had a come-to-Jesus moment (ironic)
I found the analysis of Iran's domestic situation as evidence they'd not want full throated war convincing- we detailed that on the earlier thread... :: shrug ::

might even be that the behind the scenes back channel negotions the many nations were involved in found a resolution we could all- literally- live easier with, and that is what we're now seeing.

ETA some of that had to do w/ Iran's leader getting ready to turn 85 on APRIL 19 and that date gave me the willies like few others, given how often it's been bad juju.
 

Shadow

Swift, Silent,...Sleepy
I was talking to an extended family member that was special forces for 20 years. Retired last year.

He doesn’t believe that 50% of the cruise and ballistic rockets were failed on launch or in route.

He believes the US military used a new Skunk Works PFM (pure f’n’ magic) project weapon in theater. He believes it’s a laser like weapon that destroys electronics on contact, unlike typical laser that destroy by heat.

He thinks they wanted to scare the crap out of Russia, China and Iran with the failure of this attack on Israel.

He also believes that this weapon will most likely be used in the offensive attack to take out anti-aircraft weapons. He doesn’t think Israel’s response has to be big. It just has to prove to their enemies that they stand no chance on offense or defense in a real war.

Time will tell.
Iran recently, within years, put three satellites into low earth orbit. I have heard nothing of their function but I would be very surprised if it was not military, at least in part. If they stopped functioning (because of the same reliability issues Irans missiles had) it would not surprise me.

Shadow
 

colonel holman

Veteran Member
From Martin Armstrong's private blog:
"Every action inspires a reaction. The US intervention in defending Israel was a huge mistake for now that justifies Russia defending Iran against any direct attack by Israel. Russia has now dispatched a navy frigate, the Marshal Shaposhnikov, which is equipped with the Kinzhal Supersonic Missiles to the Mediterranean Sea via the Suez Canal.

Russia can now claim the same right to defend Iran. That's what happens when we have Neocons running the Department of State who have been waging wars since Vietnam and have NEVER won a single war yet.

Anyone who believes for a second that Ukraine shot down Russia's Kinzhal Supersonic Missiles, which was said to get more money, fails to understand proxy wars. You NEVER use your most secret weapons, for that allows your opponent to study them and prepare a defense. This is why all the weapons and F16s sent to Ukraine are old, obsolete versions.

The Kremlin has confirmed the warship's deployment to the region, stating that it will continue to carry out its assigned tasks as per the expedition plan. The Iranian assault was a TEST which clearly the US took the bait. They used slow-moving drones to see who would come out to defend Israel. Now they know."
Could be Israel is prompted to hit back, hard, right now, before Russia gets those assets on station, in place to act to defend Iran.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Iran recently, within years, put three satellites into low earth orbit. I have heard nothing of their function but I would be very surprised if it was not military, at least in part. If they stopped functioning (because of the same reliability issues Irans missiles had) it would not surprise me.

Shadow
Those "satellite" launches had nothing to do with science and everything to do with learning how to and proofing ICBM technology.
 
Last edited:

Shadow

Swift, Silent,...Sleepy
War Intel
@warintel4u
50m

#BREAKING The Washington Post, according to intelligence officials: Russia pledged to provide Iran fighters to strengthen its defenses against an Israeli or American attack — Al Jazeera
Russia probably wants to field test some of their systems against western weapons that are better than what has been supplied to Ukraine.

Shadow
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Could be Israel is prompted to hit back, hard, right now, before Russia gets those assets on station, in place to act to defend Iran.

A flight of F-16s with the same standoff missiles they've been using on Hezbollah/IRGC targets in Syria can pretty much handle the Marshal Shaposhnikov.
 

Johnny Twoguns

Senior Member
why would russia want to participate in an a counter attack with iran
I could see them providing intelligence or maybe some logistical help
but seems russia doesn't need another front using up material and other resources right now
They have won in Ukraine. Now it is pushing forward until the lines break, as they seem to be doing. They may be itching for a lot of payback. Maybe they think Iran might be the place to get it. A considerable number of NATO members may not think that Iran vs Israel, and collateral damage, is a NATO matter. Time will tell.
 

Mark D

Now running for Emperor.
I was talking to an extended family member that was special forces for 20 years. Retired last year.

He doesn’t believe that 50% of the cruise and ballistic rockets were failed on launch or in route.

He believes the US military used a new Skunk Works PFM (pure f’n’ magic) project weapon in theater. He believes it’s a laser like weapon that destroys electronics on contact, unlike typical laser that destroy by heat.

He thinks they wanted to scare the crap out of Russia, China and Iran with the failure of this attack on Israel.

He also believes that this weapon will most likely be used in the offensive attack to take out anti-aircraft weapons. He doesn’t think Israel’s response has to be big. It just has to prove to their enemies that they stand no chance on offense or defense in a real war.

Time will tell.
Any of the publicly known laser systems (sea/air/land) that the U.S. has been playing with recently, are more than capable of destroying all of the Iranian (non-ballistic) weapons launched the other night... It doesn't have to be a secret "magic" system.

Factor in the IDF's "Iron Beam" system, and you end up with a pretty solid defense.
 

Johnny Twoguns

Senior Member
A flight of F-16s with the same standoff missiles they've been using on Hezbollah/IRGC targets in Syria can pretty much handle the Marshal Shaposhnikov.
Yeah, why not, let's all pray that we get incinerated in nuclear fireballs this week. Next week survivors will end up on their neighbor's dinner plates, or at least on their neighbor's forks. Salt may be optional.
 

Zoner

Veteran Member
With Biden on the bidet, Russia has an opening to push forward its agenda. They need to move now before the election imho. We'll soon see. Israel should attack today or tomorrow.
 

Zoner

Veteran Member
Iranian media :
The Iranian forces are waiting and planning a counter-reaction that will come from Israel, and the reaction will take place immediately after the Israeli attack.

The National Security Committee of Iran in the Iranian Parliament :
In response to Israel, we are ready to use weapons that we have not used before.

 

Zoner

Veteran Member
✡
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Posted for fair use.......

Laser Rocket Anti-Drone Systems Being Rushed To U.S. Forces In The Middle East​

The Navy put in an order for new Electronic Advanced Ground Launcher System just ahead of Iran’s missile and drone strikes on Israel.

BY JOSEPH TREVITHICK | PUBLISHED APR 15, 2024 1:44 PM EDT

The U.S. Navy recently put in a rush order for new counter-drone systems that use laser-guided 70mm rockets as their effectors to help defend American forces in the Middle East. The Electronic Advanced Ground Launcher System (EAGLS) is very similar in form and function to U.S.-supplied VAMPIREs that Ukrainians are now using in combat. The purchase of the EAGLS came just days ahead of Iran's unprecedented missile and drone strikes on Israel, which have only added to long-standing concerns about uncrewed aerial and other threats to U.S. forces in the region.

Naval Air Systems Command (NAVAIR) announced on April 12 that it had awarded a firm-fixed-price contract with a not-to-exceed value of $24,186,464 to MSI Defense Solutions for the purchase of five EAGLS Counter-Unmanned Aerial Systems (C-UAS). This sole-source deal also includes various ancillary items and training support.

EAGLS uses laser-guided 70mm Advanced Precision Killer Weapon System II (APKWS II) rockets, as seen in the video below, to knock down drones.

View: https://youtu.be/P6X8fT5IfFM


"This contract action is" in response to an urgent need to respond to "emerging and persistent UAS threats in the United States Central Command (USCENTCOM) Area of Responsibility (AOR)," according to an associated Justification and Approval document the Navy released. U.S. government agencies have to submit justification documents like this in order to receive authority to award contracts without going through normal competitive bidding processes.

"Immediate contract award is critical due to the urgent need of ongoing operations in the USCENTCOM AOR," according to the J&A document. "If the immediate procurement is not made, U.S. Forces will not receive necessary critical C-UAS systems as required for capability in theater."

The J&A says that the goal is for the first EAGLS to be fielded within 30 days of the contract award.
EAGLS is a self-contained system that consists of three main parts: a version of the Commonly Remotely Operated Weapon Station II (CROWS II) fitted with a four-round 70mm rocket launcher loaded with laser-guided Advanced Precision Kill Weapon System II (APKWS II) rockets, a sensor turret with electro-optical and infrared cameras, and a small radar array. The system is designed to be deployed in either palletized or vehicle-mounted forms. MSI's website shows a version installed mounted on a pickup truck-style variant of the 4x4 Humvee light utility vehicle, as is seen at the top of this story.
A palletized version of the EAGLS counter-drone system. Note the additional four-round rocket launchers on the pallet, which could be preloaded and swapped out for the one mounted on the CROWS II to help more rapidly reload the system. <em>MSI Defense Solutions</em>

A palletized version of the EAGLS counter-drone system. Note the additional four-round rocket launchers on the pallet, which could be preloaded and swapped out for the one mounted on the CROWS II to help more rapidly reload the system. MSI Defense Solutions

The radar used with EAGLS is a Leonardo DRS RPS-40, a member of the company's Multi-Mission Hemispheric Radar (MHS) family. This radar, which is a compact S-band active electronically scanned array (AESA) type, can detect targets up to 10 kilometers (just over 6 miles) away, according to the manufacturer, though this would be dependent on their size and other factors. The RPS-40 is an increasingly popular radar that several other counter-drone and short-range air defense systems make use of, including the U.S. Army's Mobile Short Range Air Defense (M-SHORAD) variant of the 8x8 Stryker wheeled armored vehicle.

MSI's offering is one of a growing number of counter-drone systems utilizing APKWS II rockets and otherwise with similar overall configurations that are designed to be platform agnostic. This includes L3Harris' VAMPIRE, examples of which NAVAIR has directly helped deliver to Ukraine, and that have now proven themselves in combat.

The U.S. Army has also been working on a containerized counter-drone system that makes use of a modified CROWS II with a four-round 70mm rocket launcher and a different MHS-series radar from Leonardo DRS, as well as a camera-equipped sensor turret, which you can read more about here.

The addition of the radar gives the EAGLS additional capability and flexibility over VAMPIRE configurations that have been seen to date, the only sensors in which are turrets with electro-optical and infrared cameras. A radar like the RPS-40 gives operators of systems like EAGLS more advanced warning of potential threats and better data about where they are coming from. It is unclear whether EAGLS' 70mm launcher can be automatically cued to the system's radar and/or its senor turret, but this seems likely and would be highly desirable.

The addition of the radar does mean that EAGLS puts out additional radio frequency signals that more advanced enemy forces could use to detect and locate its position. The sensor turret does not give off a passive target detection and engagement capability that could be used even if the radar is switched off to reduce the system's signature in the electromagnetic spectrum.

APKWS II rockets can be employed against ground targets giving C-UAS systems based around these weapons an inherent surface-to-surface attack capability. Originally designed as air-to-ground munitions, these rockets also have a demonstrated capability in the air-to-air role against drones, as well as cruise missiles.

The laser-guided rockets are modular and low-cost, with the guidance section designed to slot in between existing standardized 70mm warheads and rocket motors. The unit cost of the APKWS II guidance section is around $25,000, with the warhead and rocket motor together typically only costing a few thousand dollars more depending on their exact types, according to Navy budget documents. For comparison, the cost of a single Coyote Block 2 interceptor, another counter-drone weapon currently deployed to help protect U.S. Forces in the Middle East, is reportedly roughly around $100,000. Current generation Stinger short-range heat-seeking surface-to-air missiles, which include new features to improve their effectiveness against drones, have a unit cost of around $400,000.

NAVAIR has previously announced that it has been working with the APKWS II's prime contractor, BAE Sytems, on the development of a new proximity-fuzed warhead specifically optimized for use against drones.

Where exactly in the Middle East the EAGLS might be headed and what specific threats prompted their purchase is unknown. However, Navy Rear Adm. Stephen Tedford, head of NAVAIR's Program Executive Office for Unmanned Aviation and Strike Weapons (PEO U&W), made comments at the annual Sea Air Space conference last week that suggest these systems could be headed to bolster counter-drone defenses at Navy and other U.S. military facilities in the Persian Gulf.

"A lot going on in the space of with APKWS in regards to counter-UAS services. So, with everything that's been going on in the Red Sea that you're all familiar with in the news, APKWS is providing us a much more affordable approach to getting after the counter UAV [uncrewed aerial vehicle] space," Tedford said. The situation in the Red Sea that Tedford was referring to is the ongoing anti-ship campaign by Iranian-backed Houthi militants in Yemen. The Houthis have used ballistic and cruise missiles, as well as drones, to attack commercial vessels and foreign warships in the region.

"We're working on a system now that will be deployed in [the] 5th Fleet [area of responsibility] to provide base security and force protection for our services in the [Persian] Gulf." Tedford continued.

U.S. Naval Forces Central Command (NAVCENT) and the U.S. 5th Fleet have their headquarters in Bahrain right on the Gulf. U.S. forces also operate from several major air bases, as well as smaller facilities, across the Arabian Peninsula. Vessels sitting in port are particularly vulnerable to drone strikes, as has been underscored by the Houthi's recent targeting of Israeli warships in Eilat on the Gulf of Aqaba.

View: https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1779586439887331546?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1779586439887331546%7Ctwgr%5Ee3102c85664ecf900b859776984b547acacf13ca%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.twz.com%2Fland%2Farmy-deploys-typhon-missile-system-to-chinas-backyard-for-the-first-time


View: https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/1774643922217701592?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1774643922217701592%7Ctwgr%5Ee3102c85664ecf900b859776984b547acacf13ca%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.twz.com%2Fland%2Farmy-deploys-typhon-missile-system-to-chinas-backyard-for-the-first-time


There is still a possibility that EAGLS could be deployed elsewhere in the Middle East outside of the Persian Gulf. U.S. forces are forward-deployed at a constellation of larger bases and smaller sites across the region, including ones in Israel, where there are also drone threats. In addition, the Navy recently expressed interest in new ways to rapidly add counter-drone defenses to its warships themselves. A palletized system like EAGLS could be an option for helping to meet that demand, as well.

In his comments last week, Tedford also cited the value of experience that NAVAIR has gained from working with Ukraine on the VAMPIRE system. The conflict in Ukraine has helped bring the threat posed by drones into the mainstream consciousness.

View: https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1756728380194422882?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1756728380194422882%7Ctwgr%5Ee3102c85664ecf900b859776984b547acacf13ca%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.twz.com%2Fland%2Farmy-deploys-typhon-missile-system-to-chinas-backyard-for-the-first-time


However, the threat posed by drones, including to U.S. forces at home, as well as abroad, is anything but new, as The War Zone has been highlighting for years now. Just in January, Iranian-backed proxy forces killed three U.S. servicemembers at a forward operating base in Jordan with a kamikaze drone attack, highlighting the very real danger even lower-tier uncrewed aerial system present.

Potential drone threats in the Gulf region have only grown in the wake of Iran's unprecedented missile and drone strikes on Israel over the weekend. Authorities in Tehran have threatened to retaliate against U.S. forces across the Middle East if they aid their Israeli counterparts in any future strikes on Iran. Any such Iranian response could come in full or in part through its proxies, as well. U.S. bases in the Gulf region are well within range of kamikaze drones, as well as missiles, that the Houthis have in their arsenal.

It is worth noting that an order for five EAGLS represents a relatively small additional counter-drone capability. The overall nature of the acquisition also seems to reflect that the U.S. military is still playing catch-up to the drone threat, even in the face of ever-growing evidence of its seriousness, including the recent attacks on Israel. U.S. forces, including warships offshore, combat jets, and ground-based air defenses, were heavily engaged in defending Israel from that incoming barrage of missiles and drones.

Overall, the new EAGLSs look set to provide important additional counter-drone capabilities to U.S. forces in the Middle East, but the purchase of these systems also underscores the need for much more capacity in this regard.
 

jward

passin' thru
OSINTdefender
@sentdefender

Lots of Military Equipment including Missiles and Drones have been reported tonight being moved around and into the Iranian Capital of Tehran with several Account claiming that this is Preparation for an Israeli Retaliatory Strike; however, if you Pay Close Attention to the most of the Footage you can see Banners on the several of the Vehicles, indicating that most of this Equipment is likely for Parades on Thursday, the 18th of April, which is Islamic Republic of Iran Army Day.
View: https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1780032570224181706
 

jward

passin' thru
FJ
@Natsecjeff
How the Israel Air Force could bring Iran to its knees - analysis

What if Israel finally decides to strike back? What if it decides to take this opportunity to finally bomb Iran’s prized nuclear weapons program?


How the Israel Air Force could bring Iran to its knees - analysis

What if Israel finally decides to strike back? What if it decides to take this opportunity to finally bomb Iran’s prized nuclear weapons program?

APRIL 14, 2024 12:27
Updated: APRIL 14, 2024 17:38



Iran took its best shot (or a very significant one) at Israel with over 100 ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and over 100 drones, totaling over 300 forms of aerial attack from many different sides and vectors.

What if Israel finally decides to strike back? What if it decides to take this opportunity to finally bomb Iran’s prized nuclear weapons program?

Such a scenario has been gamed out for years, but here is one version of what it could look like.

Several quartets of F-35 stealth combat jets could fly by separate routes to hit sites across the massive Islamic Republic, some as far as 1,200 miles from the Jewish state.

Some of the aircraft might fly along the border between Syria and Turkey (despite those countries' opposition) and then race across Iraq (who would also oppose). Other aircraft might fly through Saudi airspace (unclear if this would be with quiet agreement or opposition) and the Persian Gulf.

The main aim would be to eliminate Iran's air defense​

They might arrive simultaneously or in waves (as Iran did overnight between Saturday and Sunday) to first eliminate the ayatollahs’ air defenses at dozens of Iranian nuclear sites, carefully hand-picked by the Mossad and IDF intelligence.

An Iranian missile system is seen during an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) ground forces military drill in the Aras area, East Azerbaijan province, Iran, October 17, 2022. (credit: IRGC/WANA (West Asia News Agency)/Handout via REUTERS)
Their job would be to eliminate Iran’s serious air defense shield, a much more sophisticated defense system than anything Lebanon, Syria, or Hamas possesses.

Regardless of whether the F-35s came in unison or in waves, there would almost certainly be a separate wave for Israel’s F-15 eagles, F-16 fighting falcons, and heavily loaded F-35s carrying 5,000-pound American GBU-72 bombs. 2,000 pound and smaller bombs might also be used for a variety of targets.

There might even be additional waves after that to assist in penetrating deep into the ground to destroy Iran’s top nuclear facilities at Fordow and Natanz.

The IDF could also potentially use a significant number of its own surface-to-surface ballistic missiles as well as intelligence-collecting and attack drones.

Fordow’s main chamber is buried some 80 meters underground, a depth that only the 30,000-pound “bunker buster” bombs in the American arsenal could immediately destroy.

But even under the Trump administration, the US has always refused to provide Israel with such bunker busters.

That said, one does not need to entirely eliminate a facility to render it useless. A repeated series of strikes could block Tehran’s access to electric power, bury its entrances and exits, and cut it off from the world.

Such an operation might not be free.

Iran might succeed at shooting down aircraft.

Some aircraft might fail to make the return flight due to fuel issues even if there was some complex midair refueling capability or midway landing spot as part of the plan.

On the positive side, despite the massive number of aerial attacks by the IDF in Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza, which reportedly also included F-15 and F-16 fighter aircraft at times, Israel lost only one F-16 in early 2018 and has never lost an F-35.

Special forces or Mossad agents in Iran to assist close-up could be lost one way or another.

There are also additional facilities that Israel might strike, such as the heavy water reactor at Arak, the uranium conversion plant near Isfahan, research reactors at Bonab, Ramsar, and Tehran, and other facilities where Iran has moved forward on weaponization issues – though these facilities might be a lower priority as they are earlier points in the nuclear weapons cycle.

As of mid-2023, it was also revealed that IDF intelligence formed a new unit of dozens of officers with one goal: to collect and assess intelligence to develop a massive target bank for hitting Iran far beyond just its nuclear program.

The targets were to include key power sources for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in order to bring them to their knees much the same way IDF intelligence had collected intelligence for years on an enormous number of Hamas and Hezbollah targets.

Israel might not undertake a huge attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities.

If it does, it might not open up the much larger target bank of IRGC targets.

Maintaining US and allied support is also a crucial value.

On the other hand, the main reason not to attack Iran for years has been the blowback that Jerusalem could receive from Hezbollah, Hamas, and hundreds of drones and ballistic missiles.

Being that most of the worst case scenarios have already transpired – and even worse including Yemen who was not viewed as for sure taking part in a theoretical larger war as they have in fact in the current very real war – there would seem to be a lot less of a reason to hold back at this moment than at anytime in decades.

How the Israel Air Force could bring Iran to its knees - analysis
 

blueinterceptor

Veteran Member

Johnny Twoguns

Senior Member
Considering the Israeli is standing on top of a ground zero ......
L
FJ
@Natsecjeff
How the Israel Air Force could bring Iran to its knees - analysis

What if Israel finally decides to strike back? What if it decides to take this opportunity to finally bomb Iran’s prized nuclear weapons program?


How the Israel Air Force could bring Iran to its knees - analysis

What if Israel finally decides to strike back? What if it decides to take this opportunity to finally bomb Iran’s prized nuclear weapons program?

APRIL 14, 2024 12:27
Updated: APRIL 14, 2024 17:38



Iran took its best shot (or a very significant one) at Israel with over 100 ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and over 100 drones, totaling over 300 forms of aerial attack from many different sides and vectors.

What if Israel finally decides to strike back? What if it decides to take this opportunity to finally bomb Iran’s prized nuclear weapons program?

Such a scenario has been gamed out for years, but here is one version of what it could look like.

Several quartets of F-35 stealth combat jets could fly by separate routes to hit sites across the massive Islamic Republic, some as far as 1,200 miles from the Jewish state.

Some of the aircraft might fly along the border between Syria and Turkey (despite those countries' opposition) and then race across Iraq (who would also oppose). Other aircraft might fly through Saudi airspace (unclear if this would be with quiet agreement or opposition) and the Persian Gulf.

The main aim would be to eliminate Iran's air defense​

They might arrive simultaneously or in waves (as Iran did overnight between Saturday and Sunday) to first eliminate the ayatollahs’ air defenses at dozens of Iranian nuclear sites, carefully hand-picked by the Mossad and IDF intelligence.

An Iranian missile system is seen during an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) ground forces military drill in the Aras area, East Azerbaijan province, Iran, October 17, 2022. (credit: IRGC/WANA (West Asia News Agency)/Handout via REUTERS)
Their job would be to eliminate Iran’s serious air defense shield, a much more sophisticated defense system than anything Lebanon, Syria, or Hamas possesses.

Regardless of whether the F-35s came in unison or in waves, there would almost certainly be a separate wave for Israel’s F-15 eagles, F-16 fighting falcons, and heavily loaded F-35s carrying 5,000-pound American GBU-72 bombs. 2,000 pound and smaller bombs might also be used for a variety of targets.

There might even be additional waves after that to assist in penetrating deep into the ground to destroy Iran’s top nuclear facilities at Fordow and Natanz.

The IDF could also potentially use a significant number of its own surface-to-surface ballistic missiles as well as intelligence-collecting and attack drones.

Fordow’s main chamber is buried some 80 meters underground, a depth that only the 30,000-pound “bunker buster” bombs in the American arsenal could immediately destroy.

But even under the Trump administration, the US has always refused to provide Israel with such bunker busters.

That said, one does not need to entirely eliminate a facility to render it useless. A repeated series of strikes could block Tehran’s access to electric power, bury its entrances and exits, and cut it off from the world.

Such an operation might not be free.

Iran might succeed at shooting down aircraft.

Some aircraft might fail to make the return flight due to fuel issues even if there was some complex midair refueling capability or midway landing spot as part of the plan.

On the positive side, despite the massive number of aerial attacks by the IDF in Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza, which reportedly also included F-15 and F-16 fighter aircraft at times, Israel lost only one F-16 in early 2018 and has never lost an F-35.

Special forces or Mossad agents in Iran to assist close-up could be lost one way or another.

There are also additional facilities that Israel might strike, such as the heavy water reactor at Arak, the uranium conversion plant near Isfahan, research reactors at Bonab, Ramsar, and Tehran, and other facilities where Iran has moved forward on weaponization issues – though these facilities might be a lower priority as they are earlier points in the nuclear weapons cycle.

As of mid-2023, it was also revealed that IDF intelligence formed a new unit of dozens of officers with one goal: to collect and assess intelligence to develop a massive target bank for hitting Iran far beyond just its nuclear program.

The targets were to include key power sources for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in order to bring them to their knees much the same way IDF intelligence had collected intelligence for years on an enormous number of Hamas and Hezbollah targets.

Israel might not undertake a huge attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities.

If it does, it might not open up the much larger target bank of IRGC targets.

Maintaining US and allied support is also a crucial value.

On the other hand, the main reason not to attack Iran for years has been the blowback that Jerusalem could receive from Hezbollah, Hamas, and hundreds of drones and ballistic missiles.

Being that most of the worst case scenarios have already transpired – and even worse including Yemen who was not viewed as for sure taking part in a theoretical larger war as they have in fact in the current very real war – there would seem to be a lot less of a reason to hold back at this moment than at anytime in decades.

How the Israel Air Force could bring Iran to its knees - analysis
Looks great on paper.
 

jward

passin' thru
OSINTdefender
@sentdefender

Two U.S. Defense Officials have now Confirmed that Saturday Night marks the First Operational Combat Use of the Standard Missile-3 (SM-3) aboard the Arleigh Burke-Class Guided-Missile Destroyer; as the USS Arleigh Burke (DDG-51) and the USS Carney (DDG-64), who were both Deployed in the Eastern Mediterranean off the Coast of Israel, reportedly launched between 4 to 7 SM-3s to Intercept upwards of 5 Iranian Medium-Range Ballistic Missiles that were attempting to Target several Airbases in the South of Israel.

While not stated, the SM-3 and the SPY-1D Radar aboard both of the Ships is Capable of conducting Exoatmospheric Interceptions though it is Unknown if the ones seen on Saturday Night were executed by SM-3s or the Israeli “Arrow 3” which is also Exoatmospheric Intercept-Capable.


news.usni.org


SM-3 Ballistic Missile Interceptor Used for First Time in Combat, Officials Confirm - USNI News​




On Nov. 16, U.S. Missile Defense Agency and Navy sailors aboard USS John Finn (DDG 113), an Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense System-equipped destroyer, fired a Standard Missile-3 (SM-3) Block IIA guided missile that successfully intercepted and destroyed a mock Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) during a flight test demonstration in the broad ocean area northeast of Hawaii in November 2020. MDA photo.
For the first time in combat, guided-missile destroyers fired missiles developed to intercept ballistic missiles during the U.S. response to the Iranian attack on Israel, USNI News has learned.

USS Arleigh Burke (DDG-51) and USS Carney (DDG-64), in the Eastern Mediterranean, fired four to seven Standard Missile 3s to intercept Iranian ballistic missiles headed toward Israeli targets over the weekend, two defense officials confirmed to USNI News on Monday.
Carney and Arleigh Burke have versions of the Aegis combat system that were modified to track and target ballistic missiles. The SPY-1D radar on the destroyers cues the SM-3 to attack the ballistic missile. The SM-3 transports a kill vehicle outside the atmosphere to intercept a ballistic missile near the height of its path from its launch point before it reenters the atmosphere to hit its target.

Both the destroyers were placed off the coast of Israel as part of the defensive measures against a Iranian strike in retaliation for an Israeli attack on an Iranian embassy in Syria.
It’s unclear what missiles the Iranians fired toward Israel, but, according to missile analyst Chris Carlson, the fact the Navy used SM-3s points to the likelihood the Iranians used some of its medium-range ballistic missiles with a range of up to 1,800 miles.
First deployed in early 2004 on U.S. cruisers and destroyers, the SM-3s have been part of the U.S. ballistic missile defense network across the world. In 2011, the U.S. announced it would deploy four U.S. BMD destroyers in Rota as part of the European Phased Adaptive Approach to BMD along with missile defense sites based on the Aegis technology in Poland and Romania that also use SM-3s. The EPAA was specifically created during the Obama administration to protect Europe from Iranian ballistic missiles.
Burke is currently part of the U.S. destroyer contingent in Rota, and Carney had previously been stationed there as part of the mission. Likewise, BMD destroyers and cruisers patrol near Japan and South Korea as a hedge against potential North Korean ballistic missile attacks.

While variants of the missile have been in use for more than two decades and have undergone a wide range of tests, they have never been used in a real-world situation.
“Until you use it in combat, there are always questions,” Carlson told USNI News.

Related


USS Mason Shoots Down Houthi Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile

USS Mason (DDG-87) shot down an anti-ship missile and a drone fired by the Houthis Thursday, U.S. Central Command announced via X, the social media site formerly known as Twitter. This is the 22nd attack on international shipping, according to Central Command, although the X post did not say which ship was…
December 28, 2023
In "Foreign Forces"

U.S. Warships in Eastern Mediterranean Down Iranian Ballistic Missiles

USS Carney (DDG-64) and USS Arleigh Burke (DDG-51) shot down between four and six Iranian-launched ballistic missiles, a senior military official told reporters Sunday. Both ships were in the Mediterranean. Carney most recently made a port visit to Palermo, Sicily, Italy, on April 10. Arleigh Burke is forward deployed to Rota,…
April 14, 2024
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

Abert

Veteran Member
Posted for fair use.......

Laser Rocket Anti-Drone Systems Being Rushed To U.S. Forces In The Middle East​

The Navy put in an order for new Electronic Advanced Ground Launcher System just ahead of Iran’s missile and drone strikes on Israel.

BY JOSEPH TREVITHICK | PUBLISHED APR 15, 2024 1:44 PM EDT

The U.S. Navy recently put in a rush order for new counter-drone systems that use laser-guided 70mm rockets as their effectors to help defend American forces in the Middle East. The Electronic Advanced Ground Launcher System (EAGLS) is very similar in form and function to U.S.-supplied VAMPIREs that Ukrainians are now using in combat. The purchase of the EAGLS came just days ahead of Iran's unprecedented missile and drone strikes on Israel, which have only added to long-standing concerns about uncrewed aerial and other threats to U.S. forces in the region.

Naval Air Systems Command (NAVAIR) announced on April 12 that it had awarded a firm-fixed-price contract with a not-to-exceed value of $24,186,464 to MSI Defense Solutions for the purchase of five EAGLS Counter-Unmanned Aerial Systems (C-UAS). This sole-source deal also includes various ancillary items and training support.

EAGLS uses laser-guided 70mm Advanced Precision Killer Weapon System II (APKWS II) rockets, as seen in the video below, to knock down drones.

View: https://youtu.be/P6X8fT5IfFM



"This contract action is" in response to an urgent need to respond to "emerging and persistent UAS threats in the United States Central Command (USCENTCOM) Area of Responsibility (AOR)," according to an associated Justification and Approval document the Navy released. U.S. government agencies have to submit justification documents like this in order to receive authority to award contracts without going through normal competitive bidding processes.

"Immediate contract award is critical due to the urgent need of ongoing operations in the USCENTCOM AOR," according to the J&A document. "If the immediate procurement is not made, U.S. Forces will not receive necessary critical C-UAS systems as required for capability in theater."

The J&A says that the goal is for the first EAGLS to be fielded within 30 days of the contract award.
EAGLS is a self-contained system that consists of three main parts: a version of the Commonly Remotely Operated Weapon Station II (CROWS II) fitted with a four-round 70mm rocket launcher loaded with laser-guided Advanced Precision Kill Weapon System II (APKWS II) rockets, a sensor turret with electro-optical and infrared cameras, and a small radar array. The system is designed to be deployed in either palletized or vehicle-mounted forms. MSI's website shows a version installed mounted on a pickup truck-style variant of the 4x4 Humvee light utility vehicle, as is seen at the top of this story.
A palletized version of the EAGLS counter-drone system. Note the additional four-round rocket launchers on the pallet, which could be preloaded and swapped out for the one mounted on the CROWS II to help more rapidly reload the system. <em>MSI Defense Solutions</em>

A palletized version of the EAGLS counter-drone system. Note the additional four-round rocket launchers on the pallet, which could be preloaded and swapped out for the one mounted on the CROWS II to help more rapidly reload the system. MSI Defense Solutions

The radar used with EAGLS is a Leonardo DRS RPS-40, a member of the company's Multi-Mission Hemispheric Radar (MHS) family. This radar, which is a compact S-band active electronically scanned array (AESA) type, can detect targets up to 10 kilometers (just over 6 miles) away, according to the manufacturer, though this would be dependent on their size and other factors. The RPS-40 is an increasingly popular radar that several other counter-drone and short-range air defense systems make use of, including the U.S. Army's Mobile Short Range Air Defense (M-SHORAD) variant of the 8x8 Stryker wheeled armored vehicle.

MSI's offering is one of a growing number of counter-drone systems utilizing APKWS II rockets and otherwise with similar overall configurations that are designed to be platform agnostic. This includes L3Harris' VAMPIRE, examples of which NAVAIR has directly helped deliver to Ukraine, and that have now proven themselves in combat.

The U.S. Army has also been working on a containerized counter-drone system that makes use of a modified CROWS II with a four-round 70mm rocket launcher and a different MHS-series radar from Leonardo DRS, as well as a camera-equipped sensor turret, which you can read more about here.

The addition of the radar gives the EAGLS additional capability and flexibility over VAMPIRE configurations that have been seen to date, the only sensors in which are turrets with electro-optical and infrared cameras. A radar like the RPS-40 gives operators of systems like EAGLS more advanced warning of potential threats and better data about where they are coming from. It is unclear whether EAGLS' 70mm launcher can be automatically cued to the system's radar and/or its senor turret, but this seems likely and would be highly desirable.

The addition of the radar does mean that EAGLS puts out additional radio frequency signals that more advanced enemy forces could use to detect and locate its position. The sensor turret does not give off a passive target detection and engagement capability that could be used even if the radar is switched off to reduce the system's signature in the electromagnetic spectrum.

APKWS II rockets can be employed against ground targets giving C-UAS systems based around these weapons an inherent surface-to-surface attack capability. Originally designed as air-to-ground munitions, these rockets also have a demonstrated capability in the air-to-air role against drones, as well as cruise missiles.

The laser-guided rockets are modular and low-cost, with the guidance section designed to slot in between existing standardized 70mm warheads and rocket motors. The unit cost of the APKWS II guidance section is around $25,000, with the warhead and rocket motor together typically only costing a few thousand dollars more depending on their exact types, according to Navy budget documents. For comparison, the cost of a single Coyote Block 2 interceptor, another counter-drone weapon currently deployed to help protect U.S. Forces in the Middle East, is reportedly roughly around $100,000. Current generation Stinger short-range heat-seeking surface-to-air missiles, which include new features to improve their effectiveness against drones, have a unit cost of around $400,000.

NAVAIR has previously announced that it has been working with the APKWS II's prime contractor, BAE Sytems, on the development of a new proximity-fuzed warhead specifically optimized for use against drones.

Where exactly in the Middle East the EAGLS might be headed and what specific threats prompted their purchase is unknown. However, Navy Rear Adm. Stephen Tedford, head of NAVAIR's Program Executive Office for Unmanned Aviation and Strike Weapons (PEO U&W), made comments at the annual Sea Air Space conference last week that suggest these systems could be headed to bolster counter-drone defenses at Navy and other U.S. military facilities in the Persian Gulf.

"A lot going on in the space of with APKWS in regards to counter-UAS services. So, with everything that's been going on in the Red Sea that you're all familiar with in the news, APKWS is providing us a much more affordable approach to getting after the counter UAV [uncrewed aerial vehicle] space," Tedford said. The situation in the Red Sea that Tedford was referring to is the ongoing anti-ship campaign by Iranian-backed Houthi militants in Yemen. The Houthis have used ballistic and cruise missiles, as well as drones, to attack commercial vessels and foreign warships in the region.

"We're working on a system now that will be deployed in [the] 5th Fleet [area of responsibility] to provide base security and force protection for our services in the [Persian] Gulf." Tedford continued.

U.S. Naval Forces Central Command (NAVCENT) and the U.S. 5th Fleet have their headquarters in Bahrain right on the Gulf. U.S. forces also operate from several major air bases, as well as smaller facilities, across the Arabian Peninsula. Vessels sitting in port are particularly vulnerable to drone strikes, as has been underscored by the Houthi's recent targeting of Israeli warships in Eilat on the Gulf of Aqaba.

View: https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1779586439887331546?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1779586439887331546%7Ctwgr%5Ee3102c85664ecf900b859776984b547acacf13ca%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.twz.com%2Fland%2Farmy-deploys-typhon-missile-system-to-chinas-backyard-for-the-first-time


View: https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/1774643922217701592?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1774643922217701592%7Ctwgr%5Ee3102c85664ecf900b859776984b547acacf13ca%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.twz.com%2Fland%2Farmy-deploys-typhon-missile-system-to-chinas-backyard-for-the-first-time


There is still a possibility that EAGLS could be deployed elsewhere in the Middle East outside of the Persian Gulf. U.S. forces are forward-deployed at a constellation of larger bases and smaller sites across the region, including ones in Israel, where there are also drone threats. In addition, the Navy recently expressed interest in new ways to rapidly add counter-drone defenses to its warships themselves. A palletized system like EAGLS could be an option for helping to meet that demand, as well.

In his comments last week, Tedford also cited the value of experience that NAVAIR has gained from working with Ukraine on the VAMPIRE system. The conflict in Ukraine has helped bring the threat posed by drones into the mainstream consciousness.

View: https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1756728380194422882?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1756728380194422882%7Ctwgr%5Ee3102c85664ecf900b859776984b547acacf13ca%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.twz.com%2Fland%2Farmy-deploys-typhon-missile-system-to-chinas-backyard-for-the-first-time


However, the threat posed by drones, including to U.S. forces at home, as well as abroad, is anything but new, as The War Zone has been highlighting for years now. Just in January, Iranian-backed proxy forces killed three U.S. servicemembers at a forward operating base in Jordan with a kamikaze drone attack, highlighting the very real danger even lower-tier uncrewed aerial system present.

Potential drone threats in the Gulf region have only grown in the wake of Iran's unprecedented missile and drone strikes on Israel over the weekend. Authorities in Tehran have threatened to retaliate against U.S. forces across the Middle East if they aid their Israeli counterparts in any future strikes on Iran. Any such Iranian response could come in full or in part through its proxies, as well. U.S. bases in the Gulf region are well within range of kamikaze drones, as well as missiles, that the Houthis have in their arsenal.

It is worth noting that an order for five EAGLS represents a relatively small additional counter-drone capability. The overall nature of the acquisition also seems to reflect that the U.S. military is still playing catch-up to the drone threat, even in the face of ever-growing evidence of its seriousness, including the recent attacks on Israel. U.S. forces, including warships offshore, combat jets, and ground-based air defenses, were heavily engaged in defending Israel from that incoming barrage of missiles and drones.

Overall, the new EAGLSs look set to provide important additional counter-drone capabilities to U.S. forces in the Middle East, but the purchase of these systems also underscores the need for much more capacity in this regard.
System sounds good - BUT
Naval Air Systems Command (NAVAIR) announced on April 12 that it had awarded a firm-fixed-price contract with a not-to-exceed value of $24,186,464 to MSI Defense Solutions for the purchase of five EAGLS Counter-Unmanned Aerial Systems (C-UAS).

EAGLS is a self-contained system that consists of three main parts: a version of the Commonly Remotely Operated Weapon Station II (CROWS II) fitted with a four-round 70mm rocket launcher loaded with laser-guided Advanced Precision Kill Weapon System II (APKWS II) rockets, a sensor turret with electro-optical and infrared cameras, and a small radar array. The system is designed to be deployed in either palletized or vehicle-mounted forms. MSI's website shows a version installed mounted on a pickup truck-style variant of the 4x4 Humvee light utility vehicle, as is seen at the top of this story.

Each system holds 4 missiles - for a total of a max of 20 drones taken out - at best. When hundreds are sent - won't make much difference. Does make good headlines
 
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