ALERT Regional middleast war thread Israel and Iran at war
- Thread starter danielboon
- Start date
jward
passin' thru
Mike Mihajlovic
@MihajlovicMike
The next few days will be tense: Iran finished its operation and now the ball is in the Israeli field. There were some heated discussions regarding the retaliatory attack and as per some news, the War Cabinet decided for the attack. However, an attack on Iran without the US combat aircraft spearheading or supporting Israelis (aerial tankers and EW planes not counted) is a tough job even Israelis developed plans for such kind of operations.
They have ballistic missiles (Jericho 2 & 3 that can carry conventional and nuclear warheads and strike Iranian targets anywhere. The issue is that there are not many of them available.
To bomb Iran with planes, they need refueling and alternative airfields in the case of emergency. They performed long-range bombing before but that was against Iraqis, PLO, and Syrians but Iran is much better prepared.
All in all, without the US, they can try with much higher risk. UK and France are useless in this kind of endeavor so it is either Israel alone or a combined Israel & US attack. Even Biden said that the US will not participate, nobody believe what he's saying anyway. It is clear who is controlling who and who is the one that pulls the strings. Iran stated their terms and now the challenge is what the other player is going to do. Israeli attack will definitely cause large regional war as a minimum.
4:52 PM · Apr 14, 2024
3,863
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@MihajlovicMike
The next few days will be tense: Iran finished its operation and now the ball is in the Israeli field. There were some heated discussions regarding the retaliatory attack and as per some news, the War Cabinet decided for the attack. However, an attack on Iran without the US combat aircraft spearheading or supporting Israelis (aerial tankers and EW planes not counted) is a tough job even Israelis developed plans for such kind of operations.
They have ballistic missiles (Jericho 2 & 3 that can carry conventional and nuclear warheads and strike Iranian targets anywhere. The issue is that there are not many of them available.
To bomb Iran with planes, they need refueling and alternative airfields in the case of emergency. They performed long-range bombing before but that was against Iraqis, PLO, and Syrians but Iran is much better prepared.
All in all, without the US, they can try with much higher risk. UK and France are useless in this kind of endeavor so it is either Israel alone or a combined Israel & US attack. Even Biden said that the US will not participate, nobody believe what he's saying anyway. It is clear who is controlling who and who is the one that pulls the strings. Iran stated their terms and now the challenge is what the other player is going to do. Israeli attack will definitely cause large regional war as a minimum.
4:52 PM · Apr 14, 2024
3,863
Views
jward
passin' thru
doubt we could piece together enough p-51s for the job- or that planes would be the answer even if we could.
- but who knows, everything old is new again in the russia-ukraine war, so maybe :: shrug ::
The problem is numbers coming in vs resources to chase them down. Using a high performance prop plane, manned or not, adds one more flying object into the kill zone. Heck, the Ukranians big success against these low cost attack drones/cruise missiles has been a network of microphones, thermals and search lights to detect them and setting up multiple machine guns (rifle caliber to 23 mm) on likely approach paths to shoot at them. The Russians have copied this. Meanwhile the US and the Israelis have been getting ready to deploy laser weapons in the same role.
Hummm, I wonder how long it would take to get the Israeli Navy in a position to either mine Iranian harbors or launch cruise missiles at key Iranian targets?
Countrymouse
Country exile in the city
Just have what it said. Amir Tsarfati's channel may have more. Zoner did the original post quoting that so he may know more about it as well. Sorry...
jward
passin' thru
Dr. Malcolm Davis
@Dr_M_Davis
The active US and UK participation in defending #Israel against attacks by #Iran raises awkward questions given the unwillingness to do the same for #Ukraine, which is facing larger attacks by #Russia on a daily basis.
Russia has effectively manipulated western fears of escalation to use of nuclear weapons and is manipulating feckless and weak US politicians - including #Trump - in a way that has effectively neutralised the ability of the US to respond decisively to the threat posed by Russia, not just to Ukraine but to NATO as well. And #China is watching.
I think the phrase ‘sleepwalking into disaster’ is more appropriate than ever. As in the 1930s, in the 2020s we fail to confront the threat and embolden our adversaries. We make fundamental mistakes, akin to declaring ‘peace in our time’, and are oblivious that in doing so, we create the very risk of war we seek to avoid.
View: https://twitter.com/Dr_M_Davis/status/1779647416758866381
Tyler Rogoway
@Aviation_Intel
Russia is a different category of adversary sitting on the largest nuclear arsenal on earth in open sustained direct conflict with its neighbor. Many other dynamics at play, NATO etc. For similar defense you are talking NATO combat air patrols over Eastern Ukraine which would require dismantling Russia’s AD overlay that extends into Russia itself
10:24 PM · Apr 14, 2024
1,264
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@Dr_M_Davis
The active US and UK participation in defending #Israel against attacks by #Iran raises awkward questions given the unwillingness to do the same for #Ukraine, which is facing larger attacks by #Russia on a daily basis.
Russia has effectively manipulated western fears of escalation to use of nuclear weapons and is manipulating feckless and weak US politicians - including #Trump - in a way that has effectively neutralised the ability of the US to respond decisively to the threat posed by Russia, not just to Ukraine but to NATO as well. And #China is watching.
I think the phrase ‘sleepwalking into disaster’ is more appropriate than ever. As in the 1930s, in the 2020s we fail to confront the threat and embolden our adversaries. We make fundamental mistakes, akin to declaring ‘peace in our time’, and are oblivious that in doing so, we create the very risk of war we seek to avoid.
View: https://twitter.com/Dr_M_Davis/status/1779647416758866381
Tyler Rogoway
@Aviation_Intel
Russia is a different category of adversary sitting on the largest nuclear arsenal on earth in open sustained direct conflict with its neighbor. Many other dynamics at play, NATO etc. For similar defense you are talking NATO combat air patrols over Eastern Ukraine which would require dismantling Russia’s AD overlay that extends into Russia itself
10:24 PM · Apr 14, 2024
1,264
Views
jward
passin' thru
| Kosher @KosherCockney Yep. Iran even admitted themselves that he was an architect of October 7th |
Daniel Krauthammer reposted
Arsen Ostrovsky ️
@Ostrov_A
Can we get something straight please:
On 1 April 2024, Israel did not attack an Iranian consulate in Damascus. It was a terrorist HQ for the IRGC, masquerading as a diplomatic mission.
Mohammad Reza Zahedi, the Iranian general who was eliminated in the attack, was no Gandhi. He was a senior Quds military commander involved in the planning and execution of Hamas’s October 7 massacre against Israel.
Zahedi also led Iran's Hezbollah operations in Syria and Lebanon, including smuggling ammunition and precision weapons into Lebanon and working closely with Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah.
Zahedi, who was on par with Qassem Soleimani, also had "American blood on his hands", having been responsible for a number of attacks in the region, that claimed American lives.
His elimination was an entirely legitimate, just and legal action.
Please, at least get the facts straight.
View: https://twitter.com/Ostrov_A/status/1779679679323996357
Profit of Doom
Dismember
0bama
Johnny Twoguns
Senior Member
If you mean obama he was supposedly about 11 when the Shah of Iran was deposed.
jward
passin' thru
Ragıp Soylu
@ragipsoylu
NEW: CIA Director Bill Burns asked his Turkish counterpart Ibrahim Kalin to serve as a intermediary regarding Iran’s plan to retaliate against Israel in a phone call last week.
• The two directors also exchanged views on the ongoing negotiations regarding a ceasefire in Gaza.
• MIT Director Kalın held a separate phone call with Hamas following his conversation with his U.S. counterpart.
11:02 AM · Apr 14, 2024
64.6K
Views
@ragipsoylu
NEW: CIA Director Bill Burns asked his Turkish counterpart Ibrahim Kalin to serve as a intermediary regarding Iran’s plan to retaliate against Israel in a phone call last week.
• The two directors also exchanged views on the ongoing negotiations regarding a ceasefire in Gaza.
• MIT Director Kalın held a separate phone call with Hamas following his conversation with his U.S. counterpart.
11:02 AM · Apr 14, 2024
64.6K
Views
Johnny Twoguns
Senior Member
He and the others were still in a Consulate which is protected under international law. Under your argument, almost every Consulate in the world can be bombed by someone who doesn't like WHO is getting protection under Diplomatic Immunity.
Yeah crazy, but what the hell. How many US or Israeli Consulates could be bombed because they routinely house Mossad or CIA employees planning nefarious actions against other countries.
Whether I like it or not, that whole Diplomatic Immunity agreement thing, your argument is weak sauce plying emotions instead of the 'reality' of International Law, and the flouting of the same.
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POD tends to kid around a lot. There are probably better places for it than on a major breaking news thread (hint...POD. Please?)
Summerthyme
That's already happened on numerous occasions including recently the Israeli annex/Iranian view Israeli "Spy Base" in Erbil, Kurdish Iraq back in January.
Johnny Twoguns
Senior Member
I've heard of the POD people. Twice now. I don't find it humorous at all. They are dangerous.
Johnny Twoguns
Senior Member
Oh yeah, and the muzzies have attacked a number of Consulates and Embassies. Just saying, in the wide world of sports, if tit equals tat, stop trying to manipulate emotions; of course it is a useless plea, but something has to take up air time.
Old Greek
Veteran Member
If your 2017 Civic is destroying the environment, what is my 300hp carbureted 1971 Chevy truck doing?
greysage
On The Level
I did. I'm not seeing anything to prove Putin made that statement. It would seem important enough on a major thread like this to prove the President of Russia made that promise rather than throwing it out there.
Doughboy42
Veteran Member
Scaring the living crap out of the enviroweenies.If your 2017 Civic is destroying the environment, what is my 300hp carbureted 1971 Chevy truck doing?
Countrymouse
Country exile in the city
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Countrymouse
Country exile in the city
It was NOT part of the actual Consulate building OR compound--it just happened to be a building next door.
And (as mentioned upthread) you may not be old enough to remember--but the first country (at least in recent memory) to EGREGIOUSLY violate the sanctity of an embassy--
Was when IRAN TOOK OVER the US Embassy during the presidency of Jimmy Carter, took ALL the embassy personnel HOSTAGE, and held them for 444 days.
He let them go on the day Reagan was being sworn in as President.
Reagan had made no secret of the can of whoop-ass he was about to unleash on Iran if they didn't.
Countrymouse
Country exile in the city
Only thing I can suggest is PM Zoner, who posted it.
If you are not familiar with Amir Tsarfati, you should be. He is an Israeli-born and current Israeli-resident Messianic Jew who is a pastor but also does 'on-the-scene' commentary (think of him as a "weather-chaser" for the lastest news of what's going on in Israel. He is living there, and he has connections. If he posted it, he may not be able to reveal his sources but I'm sure it was on the level. Plus, other posts (though not so directly-stated as this one) have said pretty much the same thing.
Check out the last 4 (not 400, 4) pages of the previous Israel/Mideast thread--it's mentioned several times in there.
northern watch
TB Fanatic
Tessa Blue
Veteran Member
Thank you for the link to Source Global Live. I'll be checking that site frequently!
And Iran still sucks.
I do find the term International Law somewhat both amusing and sad.
Not sure I am fully on board the International community that wants me living in the stone age, dead or in prison to help China and some European billionaires divide up control of the world.
Trouble
Veteran Member
There is no law in war, this kind of attitude is why the west is on the ropes to begin with.we are weak because of our bullshit rules.
And providin' lots of smiles-per-gallon.
Good grief! If you want proof, get off the internet and go watch teevee... oh, wait! It's called the Fog of War... there IS NO "PROOF". But I'll tell ya what... next time one of our connected members here has tea with Putin, we'll have them ask him if he said it.
Summerthyme
Countrymouse
Country exile in the city
Apparently the source IS Amir Tsarfati; I found this quote from Free Republic:
Putin comes to the aid of his Iranian ally: "The smallest American attack on Iranian territory will force us to support Iran."
An assessment in Israel that the targets of the Iranian attack are IDF bases in the Golan and Negev
Israel says that no ballistic missiles were fired at Israel so far
Iran: We launched ballistic missiles at Israel.
If Iran launched ballistic missiles then we will see interceptions within a very short time!
Israel says that no ballistic missiles were fired at Israel so far
Amir Tsarfati
Q ~ Trust Trump's Plan ~ 04/01/2024 Vol.490, Q Day 2347
PS--three of Amir's grown children serve in the IDF.
found it by doing a Google search on the phrase: "The smallest American attack on Iranian territory will force us to support Iran."
Countrymouse
Country exile in the city
Passover is 7 days away--begins at sundown April 22 (next Monday) and concludes after sundown 8 days later (night of April 30).
Wonder how that will figure into Israel's planning / timing of a response.
Wonder how that will figure into Israel's planning / timing of a response.
CaryC
Has No Life - Lives on TB
Seems like I remember Israel doing stuff on some of their holidays. I know other countries attacked on their holidays.
I don't think it will be a "we can't because......" or "we ought to because....".
I think if or when they do, it will be because that is when they are prepared to do it.
