WAR Regional conflict brewing in the Mediterranean

jward

passin' thru
Well, I adore your philosophical side, but. . . as a practical matter we are probably best served by addressing the issues in a single spot? Mine suggest that the reporting on Iranian CE is a wee bit suspect at this point and bears watching- perhaps even a cover for something else?

Perhaps someone is on their way to discovering the 4th floor window somewhere :: shrug ::

At this point I think we both are or aren't....
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Well, I adore your philosophical side, but. . . as a practical matter we are probably best served by addressing the issues in a single spot? Mine suggest that the reporting on Iranian CE is a wee bit suspect at this point and bears watching- perhaps even a cover for something else?

Perhaps someone is on their way to discovering the 4th floor window somewhere :: shrug ::
Yeah, at this rate I'm guessing we'll soon have a new thread for covering a specific "event".....Merde
 

jward

passin' thru
Yeah, at this rate I'm guessing we'll soon have a new thread for covering a specific "event".....Merde
Did you want to start a new thread with the reuters report o' the incident? If you're too busy with work I can do that for you. Or we can wait.

So far this is bout all I'm seein', though threads certainly begin with far less, and out and out false rumours as well, so.. ..

OSINTdefender
@sentdefender
1h

Multiple Middle Eastern Media Sources tonight are reporting that Israel has launched a Military Operation against Iran but so far nothing has been Officially Announced by the Israeli Government or Military.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Did you want to start a new thread with the reuters report o' the incident? If you're too busy with work I can do that for you. Or we can wait.

So far this is bout all I'm seein', though threads certainly begin with far less, and out and out false rumours as well, so.. ..

OSINTdefender
@sentdefender
1h

Multiple Middle Eastern Media Sources tonight are reporting that Israel has launched a Military Operation against Iran but so far nothing has been Officially Announced by the Israeli Government or Military.
Sorry for the delay in getting back to you. Considering that only one site is being reported as hit let's hold off for a bit on a new thread. If one's needed there's Ibetiny's.
 

jward

passin' thru
Emanuel (Mannie) Fabian
@manniefabian

Hamas claims to have downed and captured an Israeli military drone on Friday. No immediate comment from the IDF.

IDF confirms it lost a drone in the Gaza Strip over the weekend during operational activity. "The incident is under investigation," the IDF adds.
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jward

passin' thru
Jan 27, 2023 - World

Scoop: CIA director visiting Israel, West Bank as concern over violence intensifies​

Barak Ravid


CIA director William Burns testifies before the Senate Intelligence Committee on March 10, 2022. Photo: Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images
CIA director Bill Burns arrived in Tel Aviv on Thursday for visits to Israel and the occupied West Bank, where he is expected to meet Israeli and Palestinian leaders and his counterparts on both sides, according to two U.S. sources with knowledge of the issue.
Why it matters: Burn’s visit was pre-planned but it takes place amid the most significant escalation of tensions between Israel and the Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza in months.
  • The visit and Burns' meetings will likely be affected by the events on the ground.
State of play: Tensions in the region intensified on Thursday after the Israeli military killed nine Palestinians, including an elderly woman, during a raid in the Jenin refugee camp in the West Bank.
  • Several Hamas and Islamic Jihad fighters were killed when a gunfight broke out during the raid. At least 20 Palestinians were wounded, including unarmed civilians.
  • The Israeli military said that prior to the raid it had received intelligence about a group of Islamic Jihad operatives it suspected of carrying out armed attacks against Israeli soldiers. The group was planning more attacks, the Israeli military claimed.
Not long after the raid, the Palestinian Authority suspended its security coordination with Israel, raising concerns the situation in the West Bank could escalate even further.
  • Overnight Thursday into Friday, the Islamic Jihad in Gaza fired several rockets toward Israel. Most were intercepted by Israel's Iron Done defense system. The Israeli air force retaliated with an air strike in Gaza.
The big picture: The last time the Palestinian Authority suspended its security coordination with Israel was in May 2020 following the Israeli government's plan to annex big parts of the West Bank.
  • The security coordination was restored several months later after the annexation was taken off the table as a result of the Abraham Accords. Still, the situation on the ground during this period significantly deteriorated.
Behind the scenes: The CIA has a close relationship with the Palestinian intelligence service and remained the sole communication channel between the U.S. and the Palestinian Authority when the latter severed relations with the Trump administration.
  • The CIA, in addition to U.S. security coordinator Lt. Gen. Michael Fenzel, also plays a key role in supporting the security and intelligence coordination between Israel and the Palestinian Authority.

  • Burns’ visit is part of a wider trip to the Middle East. On Monday, he visited Egypt and met with President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi and discussed regional issues, counterterrorism and intelligence cooperation, the Egyptian presidency said.
  • The CIA declined to comment on Burn's visit to Israel and the West Bank.
What’s next: Secretary of State Tony Blinken is expected to travel to the region this weekend. He will visit Israel and the West Bank on Monday and Tuesday, according to the State Department.
  • State Department spokesperson Ned Price said the Biden administration is deeply concerned by the cycle of violence in the West Bank and called on all parties to de-escalate.
  • "We call on the parties to work together to improve the security situation in the West Bank. Palestinians and Israelis equally deserve to live safely and securely," Price said.
Go deeper:
 

jward

passin' thru

Deadly strikes destroy convoy carrying ‘Iranian weapons’ into Syrian​




Issued on: 30/01/2023 - 10:12


The strike took place in the Albu Kamar region, which borders Iraq. Members of the Syrian security forces gather at the border-crossing between Albu Kamal in Syria and Al-Qaim in Iraq, taken from the Syrian side in the eastern region of Deir Ezzor, on September 30, 2019. © AFP

Seven people have been killed after air strikes destroyed a convoy of trucks carrying arms into eastern Syria from Iraq, a war monitor said Monday.


The seven were "truck drivers and their assistants, all of them non-Syrians", the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said, adding that they were "killed as a result of unidentified aircraft targeting a convoy of Iran-backed groups, last night".
The strikes destroyed a convoy of six refrigerated trucks transporting Iranian weapons in the Albu Kamal border region, the Observatory, which has a wide network of sources inside Syria, had said Sunday.
No country claimed the strikes, but Israel has carried out hundreds of air and missile strikes against Iran-backed and government forces in Syria, where the US military is also active.

"The trucks were transporting Iranian weapons," Observatory chief Rami Abdel Rahman had told AFP Sunday.
Tehran provides military support to its ally Damascus in Syria's civil war, including through armed factions.
The strikes hit a convoy of trucks, but also the headquarters of Iran-backed groups in the area, activist Omar Abu Layla, who heads the Deir Ezzor 24 media outlet, told AFP Monday.
"There was heavy damage in the area that was struck," he said.
A pro-Syrian government radio station had reported Sunday that "unidentified war planes targeted, in a number of raids, six refrigerated trucks", without providing further details.
The Observatory said at least two similar convoys had entered Syria from Iraq this week, offloading their cargo to pro-Iran groups in the eastern town of Al-Mayadeen.

Pro-Iran militias, including Lebanon's powerful Hezbollah group, have a major presence around the Iraq-Syria border, and are heavily deployed south and west of the Euphrates in Syria's Deir Ezzor province.
Both Albu Kamal and Al-Mayadeen are in Deir Ezzor, and Albu Kamal has seen similar strikes in the past.
The Observatory said in November that a strike in the area hit a pro-Iran militia convoy of "fuel tankers and trucks loaded with weapons", killing at least 14, though an Iraqi border guard official said there were no casualties.
In December, Israel's military chief Aviv Kohavi said his country had launched the raid, adding that the convoy was carrying weapons bound for Lebanon where Hezbollah has an influential role.
A US-led coalition fighting the remnants of the Islamic State group in Iraq and Syria has carried out strikes on pro-Iran fighters in Syria in the past.
Israel has also acknowledged carrying out hundreds of air and missile strikes in the country since civil war broke out in 2011.
 

jward

passin' thru

jward

passin' thru
Tammuz Intel
@Tammuz_Intel
8h

Alot of activity around Al-Omar oilfield eastern Syria by US forces.
Iran-backed militias are planning to target that area as a retaliation for yesterday's airstrikes in Al-Bukamal.
#USA
 

danielboon

TB Fanatic

Any US military action against Iran to be declaration of war

Any US military action against Iran to be declaration of war

TEHRAN, Jan. 31 (MNA) – The Iranian Permanent Mission to the UN warned on Tuesday that Tehran would consider any military action by the US against Iran as a declaration of war which would be met with retaliatory measures.
"In Iran's perspective, the use of the military option at any level means US entry into the war. For now, Iran considers such a possibility to be weak," Iran's Permanent Mission to the United Nations told Newsweek.
Tehran also said that if the US "miscalculates and starts a war," then Washington would be responsible for the consequences of such a conflict "for the region and the world," the news outlet reported. In such a case, Iran will be capable of ensuring its own security and defending the country's interests, the magazine cited the mission as saying.
Washington has so far denied any involvement in the recent attack on Iran, the media outlet reported.
"We've seen the press reports, but can confirm that no US military forces have conducted strikes or operations inside Iran. We continue to monitor the situation, but have nothing further to provide," a Pentagon spokesperson was quoted as saying by media.
In a statement early on Sunday, the Iranian Defense Ministry announced that its air defense units had fended off a drone attack on a military workshop in Isfahan.
The ministry said one of the workshop complexes had come under attack from a number of Micro Aerial Vehicles (MAVs), but the complex’s air defenses successfully repelled the attack.
The ministry underscored that the unsuccessful attack did not cause any loss of life and only led to minor damage to the roof of a workshop. The complex, it added, continues its ordinary operations following the attack.
Iran's foreign minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian condemned a "cowardly drone attack." Tehran also said it would not halt its progress on a "peaceful nuclear program."
Al Jazeera reported on Monday, citing an Iranian official that the preliminary data point to Israel's involvement in the recent Isfahan attack.
According to the Iranian official, drones that attacked the military workshop in the central city of Isfahan could have been launched from the territory of Iran, close to the attack site. Any US military action against Iran to be declaration of war
 

jward

passin' thru

Netanyahu fails to bring Israel, US closer on Iran​


Ben Caspit @BenCaspit​


Israel’s Defense Minister Yoav Gallant met on Tuesday in Jerusalem with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who concluded a three-day visit to the region. As with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday, Gallant focused in the meeting on the security challenges Israel is facing, primarily Iran and its proxies.
For the first time in a long while, Israel and the United States are on the same page regarding the campaign to block Iran’s nuclear program, a senior Israeli security official told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity.
“It is a tragedy that we are forced to deal with less important and burning issues at this time. Our mind is on Iran, but our feet are stuck in Silwan,” he said, referring to the east Jerusalem neighborhood that is a hotspot of Palestinian-Israeli violence.
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US concern over the recent escalation of Israeli-Palestinian violence was one of the key agenda items in back-to-back visits by senior Biden administration officials over the past 10 days, including national security adviser Jake Sullivan, CIA Director Bill Burns and Blinken. The three reportedly also expressed grave concern in their talks with Netanyahu and others over the new government’s accelerated drive to enact a controversial judicial and legal overhaul, which critics regard as an assault on Israel’s democratic foundations.
“Instead of focusing on the real thing, with our main ally — who right now see things the way we do [on Iran] — we have to waste precious time, energy and attention on the Palestinian and legal issues,” the security official said.
Reports in recent days revealed several attacks on Iranian targets, including a strike on a military facility in the city of Esfahan on Saturday. At first, Saudi-owned Al-Hadath said Washington took part in the strike, but that claim was promptly denied by US officials. On Monday, US officials told the Wall Street Journal that they suspect Israel carried out the strike.

The attack was carried out by heavy-duty four-booster drones and apparently targeted a long-range missile production plant in the central Iranian city. According to foreign media reports, the drones were launched from inside Iran, as was the case with similar attacks. Intelligence sources told The New York Times that the strike was the work of Israel’s Mossad intelligence agency. The next day, two other raids were conducted against Iranian targets, this time along the Iraq-Syria border against truck convoys carrying ammunition and weapons for Iran’s Lebanese proxy, Hezbollah. The attacks were widely attributed to Israel, which remains mum. Whether these latest strikes signal an escalation in the undeclared war between Israel and Iran remains to be seen.
Last year’s demise of a renewed Joint Comprehensive Plan Of Action (JCPOA) between world powers on curbing its nuclear program has set aside substantive disagreements between the two allies — Israel and the United States. Israel had long tried to prevent a renewed agreement.

A senior Israeli defense official spoke to Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity about the US efforts to halt Iran's nuclear capability. “The Americans are more accessible, more assertive, displaying more determination and also willing to shift their tone and activities in order to make clear to Iran that its progress toward nuclear capability will not go unchallenged. This is manifested on quite a few levels,” he said.
He pointed to last week’s Israeli-American “Juniper Oak” military drill and to the declaration by both sides that followed the exercise, as well as to contacts regarding Iran being held in various world capitals.
The US-Israeli drill is being described as the largest ever between the two allies. Israeli officials say it was designed to test the two sides' readiness for a long-range missile attack and to strengthen operational links in order to deal with regional threats.
Gen. Michael Kurilla, commander of the US Central Command who was in Israel during last week’s drill, was quoted by The Times of Israel in regard to the joint drill and the US-Israeli bond, before heading east for talks in the Gulf states and Jordan. "Today, the partnership between CENTCOM and the IDF [Israel Defense Forces] is stronger and continues to grow. Our partnership is a key pillar of our commitment to expanding regional security cooperation,” he said.
Burns was also in Israel during part of the exercise.

A former top-level diplomatic source told Al-Monitor that Kurilla’s visit and the invitation to the new IDF chief, Lt. Gen. Herzl Halevi, to tour a US aircraft carrier were part of the carrot that the United States was holding out to Israel.
“The problem is that there is also a stick. The Americans are exerting heavy pressure on the Palestinian issue and equally heavy pressure on the threat to Israeli democracy arising from the Netanyahu government’s legislative blitz. We’re talking to them about Iran and Saudi Arabia, while they want to talk about Jenin and Shireen Abu Akleh and democracy,” he said on condition of anonymity, referring to Israel’s special forces raid in Jenin last week, in which 10 Palestinians were killed, and the shooting death last year of the popular Al Jazeera journalist, probably unintentional, by an Israeli sharpshooter.
This discord was reflected clearly in the joint Blinken-Netanyahu news conference on Monday. Blinken ticked off a list of shared interests, including Iran, and then proceeded to teach Netanyahu a lesson in democracy in full view of the cameras.

“That includes our support for core democratic principles and institutions, including respect for human rights, the equal administration of justice for all, the equal rights of minority groups, the rule of law, free press, a robust civil society,” Blinken said, referring to shared US-Israeli values.
“The vibrancy of Israel’s civil society has been on full display of late,” he noted, in reference to the recent massive pro-democracy Israeli protests.
"Building consensus for new proposals is the most effective way to ensure they’re embraced and that they endure,” Blinken added, in a barely veiled reference to the Netanyahu reforms.
It is too soon to determine how effective this US pressure will be in moderating the assault on Israeli democracy. Netanyahu faces a cruel dilemma, perhaps even crueler than the one he confronted in 2009 when both he and President Barack Obama assumed power.

The Netanyahu-Obama clash was described in shorthand as “Bushar in return for Yitzhar," i.e., the United States would support Israel’s campaign against the Iran nuclear program in Bushar (and elsewhere) in return for Israeli concessions on building West Bank settlements, such as Yitzhar.
These days the tradeoff is “Esfahan in return for Silwan.” The difference between then and now is simple: In those days, Netanyahu was a relatively carefree leader. Today, he is under indictment on charges of corruption and in the throes of a fight for his personal freedom and political future.
 

jward

passin' thru

Tehran Claims Kurdish Groups Involved In Latest Drone Attack​


Iran International​


Eyewitness footage shows what is said to be the moment of an explosion at a military industry factory in Isfahan, Iran, January 29, 2023

Eyewitness footage shows what is said to be the moment of an explosion at a military industry factory in Isfahan, Iran, January 29, 2023
Islamic Republic says "equipment" used in the drone attack on the Ministry of Defense complex in central Iran last week was procured by Kurdish groups based in Iraqi Kurdistan region.

Nour News Agency, affiliated with the Iranian Supreme National Security Council (SNSC), claimed on Wednesday that parts of a micro aerial vehicle and explosive materials were ordered by a foreign intelligence service and smuggled into Iran from the Kurdistan region through difficult mountain passes and were handed to an intermediary in a border city in the northwestern part of the country.

The report added that the drone parts and explosives were then assembled at a modern workshop by a group of specialists and were used in the attack.
Nour News had earlier claimed that several members of a "Kurdish group" were trained by Israel for sabotage operations on the industrial facilities of Esfahan but were "arrested by the Ministry of Intelligence," a claim vehemently rejected by Kurdish groups.

The late-January attack targeted Material and Energy Laboratory of Esfahan with what the defense ministry called “small drones.” Videos citizens sent to Iran International showed an explosion, although the government claimed its air defenses had fended off the attack. Small or quadcopter drones, however, cannot fly hundreds of kilometers to reach Esfahan, located in central Iran. If indeed the attack was carried out with small drones, it would mean operators were present on the ground, in Iran.

According to the Israeli weblog Intellitimes, the target of the drone attack was the "Iranian Space Research Institute" affiliated with the ministry of defense. The Jerusalem Post, citing Western and foreign intelligence sources, also wrote that contrary to Iran’s claim the attack on "advanced weapons development" facility was a "tremendous success".

EndGameWW3
@EndGameWW3
·
5h

Iranian media: The opposition in Iraqi Kurdistan participated in entering the equipment used in the Isfahan attack.
 

jward

passin' thru

Senators ask Biden to delay F-16 sale to Turkey until Finland and Sweden in NATO​


Mike Brest​


A bipartisan group of senators has urged President Joe Biden to leverage the upcoming F-16 deliveries to Turkey to push the country to ratify Finland and Sweden's NATO bids.

Sens. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) and Thom Tillis (R-NC), co-chairs of the Senate NATO Observer Group, led 27 of their colleagues in a letter to Biden on Thursday, saying, “Congress cannot consider future support for Turkiye, including the sale of F-16 fighter jets, until Turkiye completes ratification of the accession protocols.”

FINLAND AND SWEDEN’S NATO AMBITIONS AT MERCY OF TURKEY AND HUNGARY

Twenty-eight of NATO’s 30 members have ratified Sweden's and Finland's ascension into the alliance, leaving only Turkey and Hungary that haven't, though Budapest is expected to take up the protocols this month. The two countries remain the last holdouts that haven't ratified Sweden's and Finland's bids to join the alliance since mid-July, with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan accusing both of being soft on terrorism.

“Failure to ratify the protocols or present a timeline for ratification threatens the Alliance’s unity at a key moment in history, as Russia continues its unprovoked invasion of Ukraine,” the senators wrote. "A productive and mutually beneficial bilateral security relationship with Türkiye is in the interest of the United States, and we are awaiting the government’s ratification of the NATO accession protocols for Sweden and Finland."

Earlier this month, the Biden administration informally notified Congress it wants to proceed with a $20 billion deal to provide 40 Lockheed Martin F-16 fighters along with 80 kits to modernize its F-16 fleet to Turkey, triggering a review process after holding up the sale for more than a year. The sale of F-16s to Turkey would be accompanied by a separate deal to send F-35s to Greece in an apparent effort to mollify the Athens government over the arms transfer with its NATO rival.



Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Robert Menendez (D-NJ) is already on record opposing the sale, citing Erdogan’s record on human rights. “Until Erdogan ceases his threats, improves his human rights record at home — including by releasing journalists and political opposition — and begins to act like a trusted ally should, I will not approve this sale,” he said in a statement.

Turkish officials opposed their attempts to join the alliance, claiming that both countries have supported terrorists on the grounds that both countries have refused to deport Turkish nationals that Ankara has accused of loyalty to the PKK, an ethnic Kurdish militant group. All three sides agreed to a deal in June to move forward with their NATO applications.
 

jward

passin' thru

Israël: Netanyahu en visite à Paris, à la recherche d'alliés contre l'Iran​


Text by: RFI​


  1. / Middle East

Israel: Netanyahu visits Paris, looking for allies against Iran​


Published on :02/02/2023 - 00:51


French President Emmanuel Macron and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during a previous visit by the latter to Paris in 2018. AP - Philippe Wojazer

The Israeli Prime Minister is in Paris this Thursday, February 2. This is Benjamin Netanyahu's first visit to France since his return to power a month ago. The Iranian question should largely dominate discussions with President Macron. The Jewish state is looking for allies to support its ambitions against Tehran.


With our correspondent in Jerusalem, Sami Boukhelifa

Israel fears that its worst enemy, the Islamic Republic of Iran, is acquiring nuclear weapons. The Jewish state wishes to form a military coalition, in particular with the Western powers, in order to strike at the regime of the mullahs.

On paper, everything is ready. Israel has studied in great detail its strategy to attack Iran. Some 3,000 targets have been identified, and the Jewish state wants to take action quickly. “ But there is no question of going into battle alone ,” confides a diplomatic source.

The idea for Israel, explains this same source, is to find allies. The military coalition would bring together France, the United States and, ideally, a few Arab countries: certain Gulf monarchies, for which the Islamic Republic also constitutes a threat.

To read also The head of French diplomacy goes to Riyadh in search of support

Unity is strength ; this alliance would have a dissuasive role. Israel attacks Iran, but Tehran does not retaliate, because that would be declaring war on several countries at the same time.

Until then, Paris and Washington had categorically rejected this option, preferring the diplomatic solution with Iran, reveals a source familiar with the matter. But the situation has changed.

First, the Iranian nuclear deal seems to be in jeopardy. Then, Israel made an effort to position itself in the Western camp, in the Russian-Ukrainian file. The Jewish state says it plans to support kyiv militarily against Moscow.

► À relire : Iran : une opération israélienne derrière l’attaque par drone à Ispahan ?

Benyamin Netanyahu envoie ainsi un message aux Occidentaux : je vous soutiens dans votre guerre contre la Russie, soutenez-moi dans ma bataille contre l'Iran. C'est ce qu'il vient chercher à Paris.

► À lire aussi : Israël dit envisager une « aide militaire à l’Ukraine »

Israël: Netanyahu en visite à Paris, à la recherche d'alliés contre l'Iran
 

jward

passin' thru

How Biden Should Handle Netanyahu's Far-Right Coalition in Israel​


Aaron David Miller, Daniel C. Kurtzer​



U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has returned from the Middle East with few tangible results in his diplomatic pouch.
With his visit coming just after several days of violence between Israelis and Palestinians—including an Israeli military raid in the West Bank city of Jenin that killed nine Palestinians, some of whom the Israel Defense Forces said were Palestine Islamic Jihad members implicated in past terrorist attacks, as well as a shooting outside an East Jerusalem synagogue by a Palestinian that killed seven Israelis—there wasn’t much hope, let alone expectation, of progress.
At a minimum, progress would have meant getting both Israeli and Palestinian leaders to take concrete steps to de-escalate and work together to prevent terrorism and violence in the future. Through no fault of Blinken’s, this could never have been achieved.

Blinken’s public remarks made clear that he had raised concerns with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu about his government’s proposed judicial reforms that, according to many jurists, would impinge on Israel’s democratic system. Blinken advised reaching a national consensus before undertaking partisan change.
There wasn’t much to show, however, on efforts to contain the violence and rebuild trust between Israelis and Palestinians. The Palestinian Authority has suspended security cooperation with Israel in the West Bank, leaving everything in the hands of the Israeli army. Meanwhile, the Israeli cabinet proposed measures on Sunday to retaliate for the Jerusalem terrorist attack, but it is hard to see how the policies, which include destroying the homes of terrorists’ families or deporting them, will help deter future attacks; there’s scant evidence that it has worked when carried out in the past.

Coming almost immediately on the heels of a flurry of back-and-forth U.S. and Israeli trips—Israeli Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer to Washington and U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and CIA Director William Burns to Israel and the West Bank—it was clear well before Blinken arrived that his visit would be part of a broader piece, with particular focus on Iran. Never before had a U.S. administration engaged with a new Israeli government as early, as often, and at this high a level.
Clearly, that engagement reflected the Biden administration’s real concern about the new right-wing government’s direction and offered an opportunity to lay down some markers, especially on issues related to Israeli policies toward Palestinians and on the judicial reforms that might erode Israel democracy. At the same time, judging by the tone and tenor of the Blinken visit, the Biden administration has clearly decided to embrace the new Israeli coalition publicly and not confront it. We wouldn’t be surprised if an early Netanyahu visit to Washington is in the offing.

The administration surely is aware of the risk that this flurry of high-level visits will be perceived as legitimizing the most extreme government in Israel’s history. But Joe Biden—a preternaturally pro-Israel U.S. president whose initial instincts were never to confront Israel but to work with it—seems willing to take that risk. Biden has other priorities, not to mention his likely decision and announcement to seek a second term. Fighting with Israel is risky business, especially in light of a Republican Party that has set itself up as Israel’s sole stalwart friend. Biden might be persuaded to get tough with Israel and the Palestinians if there were realistic chances of achieving a breakthrough that would make a fight worthwhile. But there simply aren’t.
There are no easy choices for an administration facing this Israeli government. Here are five suggestions the Biden administration could follow to have any chance of successfully navigating what’s likely to be a very fraught road ahead.
Read More

Joe Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at Israel's parliament, the Knesset on January 13, 2014 in Jerusalem, Israel. Joe Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at Israel's parliament, the Knesset on January 13, 2014 in Jerusalem, Israel.

Is Israel’s Democracy America’s Problem?​


The Biden administration has a big decision to make about Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s slide toward illiberalism.

1) Hang it on the prime minister. Netanyahu has said repeatedly he can control the more radical impulses and actions of his ministers, and the Biden administration ought to hold him to that commitment. Palestinian terrorism and the predisposition of some of Netanyahu’s ministers to use the violence to advance their narrow political agenda in the occupied territories present Netanyahu with a test that will be difficult to pass. The decisions made by the Israeli cabinet on Sunday indicate how difficult it will be for Netanyahu to rein in the radicals.
Netanyahu crafted this coalition to meet his immediate need to defer, nullify, and escape prosecution in his ongoing corruption trial. He is now saddled with it and needs to manage the coalition’s worst impulses, including by maintaining the status quo at Haram al-Sharif/Temple Mount, not gutting Israel’s Supreme Court, and avoiding a full-blown conflict with Palestinians in the occupied territories. Indeed, a functional U.S.-Israeli relationship depends on it. As Blinken emphasized throughout his visit, this relationship depends on a confluence of both values and interests.

2) Make the relationship more transactional. Netanyahu looks after Israel’s interests first, and so should the Biden administration tend to the United States’. Allies trust one another and do for one another. There’s reciprocity, not just free-riding.
Israel wants U.S. help in normalizing relations with Saudi Arabia (an interest the Biden administration shares) and in toughening up an approach toward Iran. And the Biden administration wants any number of things from Netanyahu, including a tougher Israeli policy against Russia’s war in Ukraine. Israel is the only democracy in the Middle East, the United States’ closest ally there, and the only country in the region whose history is linked to genocide. It’s not unreasonable for the United States to expect more when it comes to Russia’s brutal invasion.

Biden isn’t pressing Israel on a two-state solution—but he does want Netanyahu’s government to avoid taking actions that could make the situation in the West Bank far worse than it already is. The United States also has its own set of problems to resolve with the Saudis; Israel can exacerbate both the U.S.-Saudi relationship and its own future relations with the kingdom if it continues to take provocative actions toward the Palestinians.
At this point, though, it’s hard to see the Biden administration explicitly laying out precise quid pro quos and trade-offs to Netanyahu (e.g., if you ratchet up pressure on the Palestinians, we’re not going to work with you to maintain and broaden the Abraham Accords), largely because there’s no guarantee countries such as the United Arab Emirates would play along. And Netanyahu would likely reject that approach. Nor is it politically viable with the U.S. Congress. Israel has yet to respond definitively to the U.S. request to supply vintage Hawk missiles to Ukraine. And given Israel’s refusal to supply military assistance to Ukraine, the answer is most likely to be no.
 

jward

passin' thru
3) Make Iran the priority. As volatile as the Palestinian situation may be, Iran’s nuclear program is the only issue that might trigger a wider regional confrontation, replete with rising oil prices and falling financial markets.
The Biden administration and Israel still disagree over the virtues and drawbacks of reviving the Iran nuclear deal, officially called the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, but they do not disagree about the danger that Iran poses in the region, whether through its drive toward becoming a nuclear threshold state or its aggressive behavior in Yemen, Syria, and elsewhere.
Iran’s brutal efforts to suppress its current domestic protests and Tehran’s support for Russia’s war in Ukraine have made the prospects of a renewed nuclear agreement unlikely, which should reduce some of the tensions with Netanyahu (unless, by some miracle, a renewed diplomatic opportunity with Iran arises on the nuclear issue). And major tensions could arise if Israel makes an assessment that it must use military force to respond to Iran’s ramped-up nuclear program and the United States disagrees.

But diplomacy, containment, and smart, demonstrable deterrence—certainly including but not limited to a credible military option—will be the key to dealing with Iran in the period ahead. That will require close and nuanced diplomatic and security cooperation and coordination between Israel and the United States. The recently concluded joint military exercise involving thousands of U.S. and Israeli forces in the Mediterranean Sea was clearly intended to send a signal to Iran of combined U.S. and Israeli resolve, and it won’t be the last of such coordinated initiatives in the months ahead.

4) Sharpen the almost nonexistent current focus on the Palestinian issue. Even if the prospects for serious progress on the Palestinian issue are almost nonexistent now, the Biden administration must continue to press both the Netanyahu government and the Palestinian Authority to prevent further deterioration on the ground. White House and State Department words and hand-wringing are not enough.
The raid in Jenin and the terrorist attack that followed showcased two long-standing truths in the Israeli-Palestinian drama. Some Palestinian groups, including Hamas, Palestine Islamic Jihad, and some within Fatah, remain intent on violent resistance. The Palestinian leaders lack a political strategy for advancing toward their stated goal of self-determination and statehood. The terrorism and violence inflict pain and suffering but do not move the dial closer to a resolution of the underlying conflict. Indeed, even the most serious outbreaks of violence and war are followed by a return to the status quo ante, or worse, with nothing having been accomplished.

For its part, Israel has pursued a counterinsurgency strategy for decades designed to disrupt Palestinian terrorist operations and inflict pain on the Palestinians as a means of trying to end the terrorism, but it, too, has no political goal. At best, Israel can make costs to Palestinians very high for engaging in terrorism, but as long as Palestinians see no political avenue out of the occupation, they appear willing to absorb those costs. For Israel, this has meant short periods of calm interspersed with short periods of terrorism and violence. It’s a strategic cul-de-sac with no way out.
The Biden administration must continue to press Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas to resume security cooperation with Israel and to do more to preempt terrorism and violence in the West Bank. Abbas must also develop a diplomatic approach that responds to past Israeli and U.S. diplomatic initiatives. And he must invigorate Palestinian politics by calling elections for parliament and the presidency so that the Palestinian public can make clear its choice: a process of peacemaking or continued terrorism and violence under the slogan of resistance. The half a billion dollars the United States has provided to Palestinians since April 2021 provides some leverage in these discussions; more significant U.S. leverage would be a commitment to revive serious U.S. diplomacy in peacemaking, something that has been absent since at least 2014.

As for Israel, even as it takes security steps to protect its population, it must also take steps to shore up the Palestinian Authority. This includes pushing aside efforts to speed up or legalize creeping annexation; improving economic living conditions on the ground; ending rampant settlement activity, including the legalization of outposts that are illegal under current Israeli law; and avoiding actions that seek to permanently bind the West Bank to Israel. Even if the question of using aid as leverage with Israel is off the table—it simply will not fly in Washington, where Israel has become a domestic political football—the United States carries enough weight to persuade Israel to pay attention when it sees seriousness and determination on the part of the most senior U.S. officials.

5) Make it clear that the United States will stay out of Israeli politics—but Israel must stay out of U.S. politics, too. Israel needs to understand that the bilateral relationship thrives when U.S. policy toward Israel enjoys bipartisan support in Washington. It may be tempting for Israel to game U.S. politics and decide to throw its weight behind the Republicans, as Netanyahu has done previously, especially as the 2024 U.S. presidential campaign begins this year to shift into high gear.
But Israel needs to be reminded that the United States has one president at a time and that blatant interference of the kind that Netanyahu engaged in on Iran during the Obama administration will be called out as an unfriendly act with consequences for the personal relationship between the U.S. president and Israeli prime minister.
The new Israeli government presents the Biden administration with some very unpalatable and inconvenient choices. It is a democratically elected extremist coalition led by a very skillful and willful prime minister whose primary goal isn’t stopping Iran from getting a bomb or normalizing relations with Saudi Arabia but finding a way to escape his ongoing corruption trial.

For that, he needs the cooperation of his coalition partners. He may be able to control some of what they want, but because they have leverage over him, Netanyahu can’t block everything. This virtually ensures rising tensions with the United States, unless of course some deus ex machina intrudes, such as war with Iran, a third intifada, or the collapse of the government and its replacement by a more centrist coalition.
But more likely, if the worst of the right-wing extremists’ agenda comes to pass, the Biden administration and Netanyahu will enter a bad patch far worse than the Obama years. And Biden—with no choice but to push back—may well find himself in the middle of a nasty fight that he doesn’t want or need.
5 Ways Biden Can Thread the Needle With Israel’s New Coalition
 

jward

passin' thru






Israel Radar
@IsraelRadar_com
12m

Israeli special forces kill at least 5 terrorists in shootout in Jericho, @ynetalerts reports; army launched raid in hunt for Hamas cell behind recent shooting attack.

The Israel Link
@TheIsraelink
·
13m
During a security operation to capture the terror squad that carried out the shooting attack against a restaurant in Almog Junction last Saturday night, the two terrorists were eliminated along with 5 other gunmen.
 

jward

passin' thru

US warship operating in the Black Sea​


By JERUSALEM POST STAFF​




US warship operating in the Black Sea for the first time since the Russian invasion​

The ship visited Turkey, a NATO country that has maintained a strong relationship with Russia​

Published: FEBRUARY 7, 2023 05:04
The US Navy guided-missile destroyer USS Nitze (R) and the guided-missile cruiser USS Leyte Gulf depart Naval Station Norfolk to ride out the storm in the Atlantic Ocean ahead of Hurricane Florence, in Norfolk, Virginia, September 10, 2018. (photo credit: US NAVY/MASS COMMUNICATION SPECIALIST 2ND CLASS JUSTIN WOLPERT/HANDOUT VIA REUTERS)

The US Navy guided-missile destroyer USS Nitze (R) and the guided-missile cruiser USS Leyte Gulf depart Naval Station Norfolk to ride out the storm in the Atlantic Ocean ahead of Hurricane Florence, in Norfolk, Virginia, September 10, 2018.
(photo credit: US NAVY/MASS COMMUNICATION SPECIALIST 2ND CLASS JUSTIN WOLPERT/HANDOUT VIA REUTERS)
The United States warship, a Destroyer named ‘USS Nitze’, was seen to be operating in the Black Sea. This is the closest a US warship has been to Russia since the Russian invasion of Ukraine began.
Nitze operates as part of the George H.W. Bush Carrier Strike Group.
The ship entered the region and visited Turkey on February 3rd, which was confirmed on the US naval twitter account.
Several days later, the ship also visited Piraeus in Greece.
The last American warship to enter the region did so in December of 2021.
Russian missile cruiser Moskva is moored in the Ukrainian Black Sea port of Sevastopol, Ukraine, May 10, 2013. (credit: REUTERS/STRINGER/FILE PHOTO)

The significance of the visit​

The US Ambassador to Turkey Jeff Flake, and the US Consulate General to Istanbul Julie Eadeh visited the ship for several hours.
The Ambassador made no connection between the ship’s presence and the on-going war between Russia and Ukraine. Rather, Flake described the visit as an opportunity to strengthen a NATO relationship.
“Turkey is a highly valued NATO Ally,” Flake said in a 6th Fleet news release. “Nitze’s visit is an opportunity to further strengthen our long-standing and vital partnership with Turkey.”
Notably, The United States has recently issued warnings to Turkey about Turkish exports to Russia. The exports include chemicals, microchips and other products that can be used in Moscow's war effort in Ukraine.
Turkey has also been blocking Finland and Sweden from joining NATO, which some have said would benefit Russia in its invasion of Ukraine.
The US alliance with Turkey would seem to be in some form of competition with Turkey’s relationship with Russia.
 

jward

passin' thru
Amichai Stein
@AmichaiStein1
44m

¹Scoop: Turkish president Erdogan spoke with Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen about exporting Israeli gas to Europe through Turkey.
²Senior Turkish officials, President Erdogan and the Turkish Foreign Minister @MevlutCavusoglu, told Eli Cohen: We are interested in cooperation on gas issues. We have facilities, and we can help you export the gas to Europe.
³Israeli foreign Minister Eli Cohen did not rule it out: "We will examine the issue."
⁴The Turks called for Israeli-Turkish gas co-op for years, also during Lapid Bennett government, which pretty much avoided talking on the issue. Now that there is a new government, the Turks are checking - whether it will be possible to reach an agreement with the Netanyahu.
 

danielboon

TB Fanatic

Israel: 'all possible means on the table' to prevent Iran getting nuclear weapon​

By John Irish
MUNICH, Feb 17 (Reuters) - Israel said on Friday that "all possible means" were on the table to prevent Iran from gaining a nuclear weapon and it demanded that the international community do more to stop Tehran's proliferation of advanced weapons.
Talks to revive the 2015 nuclear accord between Iran and world powers have been at a stalemate since September.
Western states accuse Iran of making unreasonable demands after all sides appeared to be nearing a deal, but with no breakthrough in sight Iran has continued to develop its nuclear program.


The United Nations nuclear watchdog this month criticized Iran for making an undeclared change to the interconnection between the two clusters of advanced machines enriching uranium to up to 60% purity, close to weapons grade, at its Fordow plant.
"When we speak of preventing Iran from gaining a nuclear weapon, we must keep all the possible means – I repeat, all possible means - on the table," Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant said, speaking at an event alongside officials from the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference.
Yoav said Iran was expanding its advanced weapons proliferation beyond the region despite an ongoing an embargo that includes restrictions on missiles and related technologies that lasts until October 2023 and encompasses the export and purchase of advanced military systems.

"Iran is currently holding discussions to sell advanced weapons, including UAVs and PGMs, to no less than 50 different countries," he said, referring to combat drones and precision-guided munitions and citing Belarus and Venezuela.


"The international community must create an effective alternative to the dying embargo – a practical mechanism of deterrence and consequences," he said.

Israel is widely believed to have its own nuclear arsenal, though it will neither confirn no deny this.

The 2015 agreement limited Iran's uranium enrichment programme to make it harder for Tehran to develop nuclear arms, in return for lifting international sanctions. Iran says it was further developing nuclear energy for peaceful reasons.

Iran's crackdown on protesters and the sale of drones to Russia in its war with Ukraine has also increased tensions with Western powers, who say that Tehran is violating a U.N. Security Council Resolution with its transfer of drones.

The United States and European Union have imposed several raft of sanctions on Iran over the drones transfers. The EU is set to punish individuals linked to the Iranian Revolutionary Guards over production of drones used against Ukraine.
Israel: 'all possible means on the table' to prevent Iran getting nuclear weapon
 

OldArcher

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Of Israel, the Lord God said, “Of those that bless you, so will I bless. Those that curse you, those will I curse.” Israel, the apple of God’s eye, MUST be protected, even at the loss of all else, when it comes to national/extra-national interests. Yes, as a Christian, I will willingly obey the Lord God, Creator of Heaven and Earth. I pray that the United States returns to God, and repents of its wicked ways. In my youth, it was America, right or wrong. Looking at the millions of babies sacrificed on Satan’s alter, I’m hanging in there by a frayed thread. Mightily convict by Your Spirit, O Lord, the hearts, minds, souls, and spirits of those in authority, and end this unending series of heinous crimes against You and Man…

Come quickly, Lord Jesus! Confusion, death, and destruction to Israel’s enemies. May the United States never become such…

Amen

OA
 

jward

passin' thru

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Merde....The bunch out of 1600 Penn could screw up a free lunch.....

Posted for fair use.....

Ukraine in mind, US frantic to avert Mideast showdown at UN​

By MATTHEW LEE
54 minutes ago

WASHINGTON (AP) — The Biden administration is scrambling to avert a diplomatic crisis over Israeli settlement activity this week at the United Nations that threatens to overshadow and perhaps derail what the U.S. hopes will be a solid five days of focus on condemning Russia’s war with Ukraine.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken made two emergency calls on Saturday from the Munich Security Conference, which he is attending in an as-yet unsuccessful bid to avoid or forestall such a showdown. It remained unclear whether another last-minute intervention might salvage the situation, according to diplomats familiar with the ongoing discussions who spoke to The Associated Press on condition of anonymity.

Without giving details, the State Department said in nearly identical statements that Blinken had spoken to Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from Munich to “reaffirm the U.S. commitment to a negotiated two-state solution and opposition to policies that endanger its viability.”

“The secretary underscored the urgent need for Israelis and Palestinians to take steps that restore calm and our strong opposition to unilateral measures that would further escalate tensions,” the statements said.

Neither statement mentioned the proposed U.N. Security Council resolution demanding an immediate halt to Israeli settlements. The Palestinians want to bring that resolution to a vote on Monday. And neither statement gave any indication as to how the calls ended.

But diplomats familiar with the conversations said that in his call to Abbas, Blinken reiterated an offer to the Palestinians for a U.S. package of incentives to entice them to drop or at least delay the resolution.

Those incentives included a White House meeting for Abbas with President Joe Biden, movement on reopening the American consulate in Jerusalem, and a significant aid package, the diplomats said.

Abbas was noncommittal, the diplomats said, but also suggested he would not be amenable unless the Israelis agreed to a six-month freeze on settlement expansion on land the Palestinians claim for a future state.

Blinken then called Netanyahu, who, according to the diplomats, was similarly noncommittal about the six-month settlement freeze. Netanyahu also repeated Israeli opposition to reopening the consulate, which was closed during President Donald Trump’s administration, they said.

The U.S. and others were hoping to resolve the deadlock on Sunday, but the diplomats said it was unclear if that was possible,

The drama arose just ahead of the one-year anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which will be the subject of special U.N. General Assembly and Security Council sessions on Thursday and Friday.

The U.S. opposes the Palestinian resolution and is almost certain to veto it. Not vetoing would carry considerable domestic political risk for Biden on the cusp of the 2024 presidential race and top House Republicans have already warned against it.

But the administration also fears that using its veto to protect Israel risks losing support at the world body for measures condemning Russia’s war in Ukraine.

Senior officials from the White House, the State Department and the U.S. Mission to the U.N. have already engaged frantic but fruitless diplomacy to try to persuade the Palestinians to back down. The dire nature of the situation prompted Blinken’s calls on Saturday, the diplomats said.

The Biden administration has already said publicly that it does not support the resolution, calling it “unhelpful.” But it has also said the same about recent Israeli settlement expansion announcements.

U.N. diplomats say the U.S wants to replace the Palestinian resolution, which would be legally binding, with a weaker presidential statement, or at least delay a vote on the resolution until after the Ukraine war anniversary.

The Palestinian push comes as Israel’s new right-wing government has reaffirmed its commitment to construct new settlements in the West Bank and expand its authority on land the Palestinians seek for a future state.

Israel captured the West Bank, along with east Jerusalem and the Gaza Strip, in the 1967 Mideast war. The United Nations and most of the international community consider Israeli settlements illegal and an obstacle to ending the decades-old Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Some 700,000 Israeli settlers live in the West Bank and Israeli-annexed east Jerusalem.

Ultranationalists who oppose Palestinian statehood comprise a majority of Israel’s new government, which has declared settlement construction a top priority.

The draft resolution, circulated by the United Arab Emirates, the Arab representative on the council, would reaffirm the Security Council’s “unwavering commitment” to a two-state solution with Israel and Palestine living side-by-side in peace as democratic states.

It would also reaffirm the U.N. Charter’s provision against acquiring territory by force and reaffirm that any such acquisition is illegal.

Last Tuesday, Blinken and the top diplomats from Britain, France, Germany and Italy condemned Israel’s plans to build 10,000 new homes in existing settlements in the West Bank and retroactively legalize nine outposts. Netanyahu’s Cabinet had announced the measure two days earlier, following a surge in violence in Jerusalem.

In December 2016, the Security Council demanded that Israel “immediately and completely cease all settlement activities in the occupied Palestinian territory, including East Jerusalem.” It stressed that halting settlement activities “is essential for salvaging the two-state solution.”

That resolution was adopted after President Barack Obama’s administration abstained in the vote, a reversal of the United States’ longstanding practice of protecting its close ally Israel from action at the United Nations, including by vetoing Arab-supported resolutions.

The draft resolution before the council now is much shorter than the 2016 document, though it reiterates its key points and much of what the U.S. and Europeans already said last week.

Complicating the matter for the U.S., the Security Council resolution was introduced and is supported by the UAE, an Arab partner of the United States that has also normalized relations with Israel, even as it has taken a tepid stance on opposing Russia’s attack on Ukraine.

The U.S. will be looking to the UAE and other council members sympathetic to the Palestinians to vote in favor of resolutions condemning Russia for invading Ukraine and calling for a cessation of hostilities and the immediate withdrawal of all Russian forces.

___

Associated Press writer Edith M. Lederer at the United Nations contributed to this report.
 

onetimer

Veteran Member
Charles Lister
@Charles_Lister

#Israel appears to have struck a high-level #IRGC meeting in #Damascus’ Kafr Souseh neighborhood tonight.
Some sources say #Hezbollah & Islamic Jihad officials were also there at the time.
Rumors (highly unconfirmed) claim Quds Force chief Ismail Qaani was there too.
View: https://twitter.com/Charles_Lister/status/1627129569936347137?s=20
The amount of damage and multiple hits says yes this was a very high value target or targets.
 
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