WAR Regional conflict brewing in the Mediterranean

O

OldArcher

Has No Life - Lives on TB
War is coming. As usual, the questions include who fires first, and where it begins. Regardless, it IS coming.

OA
 
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EndGameWW3
@EndGameWW3
7h

| Kirby: Netanyahu and Ben Gvir apologized for the ridiculous comments claiming American interference in internal Israeli affairs.
WH Press Sec Karine #JeanPierre presser: (Nat'l Security Council Coord for Strategic Communication Admiral #JohnKirby talking) "Our commitment to #Israel is ironclad, and we're gonna make that clear and consistent every chance we get."
 
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Israel: foreign minister meets with 'leader of Islamic country' in Kenya
July 17, 2023
2–3 minutes

Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen apparently met the leader of an Islamic country that does not have diplomatic relations with the occupation state on Sunday, according to Israeli media reports today. The meeting took place in the Kenyan capital, Nairobi, on condition that the name of the country is not revealed.

Cohen was in Nairobi at the invitation of Kenyan President William Ruto and his Kenyan counterpart Alfred Mutua, against the background of the biannual meeting of the African Union.

The Israeli foreign ministry said that Cohen met with unnamed African officials on the pretext of expanding the circle of normalised relations with African countries. Israel, it pointed out, is engaged in "normalisation contacts with several African countries including Niger, Mali and Mauritania."

Mutua and Cohen discussed strengthening relations between Israel and Kenya and the African continent, and "expanding the circle of peace" with other African countries. The Israeli official referred to the strengthening of economic relations between the two countries in recent months and said that cooperation in the field of cyber defence and increasing the number of tourist flights between Israel and Kenya are both under discussion.

"Kenya's regional position makes it a key partner of Israel in the East African region," said the Israeli ministry. "Kenya's membership on the board of the [UN] International Atomic Energy Agency allows it to influence the international supervision of Iranian violations [sic]."

Cohen claimed that his diplomatic visit to Nairobi was "of regional and strategic importance against the background of Iran's attempts to expand its influence on the continent." He thanked Ruto and Mutua "for their efforts to promote Israel's position on the continent and to open doors for the State of Israel in countries on the continent with which we do not yet have diplomatic relations."

READ: Has the normalisation train reached the end of the line in Morocco?
www.middleeastmonitor.com

Israel: foreign minister meets with 'leader of Islamic country' in Kenya

Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen apparently met the leader of an Islamic country that does not have diplomatic relations with the occupation state on Sunday, according to Israeli media reports today...
www.middleeastmonitor.com www.middleeastmonitor.com
 
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Instant News Alerts
@InstaNewsAlerts
2m

#BREAKING: Syrian state media confirms air defenses activated over Damascus as Israel likely bombing targets in Syria
Jason Brodsky
@JasonMBrodsky
·
18m
#BREAKING: Syrian air defenses were activated in response to alleged Israeli airstrikes in the Damascus area on Tuesday night, according to #Syria's state news agency SANA.
 
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Aceu
@AceJaceu
9m

Introducing #Turkiye's new ERALP Early Warning Radar System. The radar system can detect targets up to 500+ KM. Successful tests surpassed current radar’s range from other systems before it entered service. This system will boost the Turkish Air Force's awareness in its region.
The 3rd picture provides a general overview, but the radar system's true potential depends on various factors, such as its location and terrain.
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1681881104339419139
View: https://twitter.com/AceJaceu/status/1681881104339419139?s=20
 
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BNO News
@BNONews
38m

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu taken back to hospital, says he'll undergo immediate surgery to receive pacemaker
 
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Amichai Stein
@AmichaiStein1

Update on Israeli PM health

● Israeli PM Netanyahu taken back to hospital a week after being hospitalized

● A pacemaker was installed, after suspicious signs in his heart rate

● Justice minister Yariv Levin was acting-PM doing the procedure

● PM canceled hid needing for today, including the weekly government meeting

10:41 PM · Jul 22, 2023
538
Views
 
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Yörük Işık
@YorukIsik
Turkish Navy Aydın class minehunter TCG Akçay M270 transited Bosphorus towards the Black Sea
 
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Barak Ravid
@BarakRavid
·
12h
Netanyahu sending a not very subtle message to Biden by releasing a photo of a meeting with the Chinese ambassador who brought him President Xi's book. "The ambassador said President Xi is looking forward to his meeting with PM Netanyahu later this year", PM office said
 
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DD Geopolitics
@DD_Geopolitics
What is happening in Syria?

The situation for July 28 - August 5, 2023

In the eastern part of Deir ez-Zor, clashes again took place between the security services of the Kurdish "Syrian Democratic Forces" (SDF) and the "Military Council of Deir ez-Zor", which is part of the SDF. At the same time, local clashes between Kurdish forces and pro-Turkish groups continue in Aleppo.

At the end of July, taking advantage of religious holidays, IS militants carried out terrorist attacks in the suburbs of Damascus, as a result of which dozens of people were killed and injured.

A fuel crisis has begun in the province of Idlib, there is a shortage of gasoline at gas stations. And the "Government of Salvation" announced the replacement of the Turkish lira with the US dollar in transactions in the markets in the region.
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1687894529045835776
View: https://twitter.com/DD_Geopolitics/status/1687894529045835776?s=20
 
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Ionian Sea busy - ItaMilRadar​


itamilradar

1–2 minutes



In these hours, thanks to Sergio Scandura’s report, we are witnessing significant congestion in the Ionian Sea.
Several NATO units are navigating the area, with some of them seemingly heading towards the Strait of Messina.
Specifically:
  • The aircraft carrier USS Gerald Ford (CVN-78) is present in the area with its Carrier Strike Group.
  • Two Spearhead-class expeditionary fast transport units, the USNS Carson City (JHSV-7/T-EPF-7) and the USNS Yuma (T-EPF-8), are also in the area heading west.
  • The replenishment oiler USNS Leroy Grumman (T-AO-195) is also navigating the area, possibly bound for Augusta.
  • Further south, the Lewis B. Puller-class expeditionary mobile base (ESB) USS Hershel “Woody” Williams (ESB-4) is heading to the Western Mediterranean, passing south of Sicily.
  • An unidentified French unit, possibly the frigate FS Lorraine (D 657), which returned to the Mediterranean via the Suez two days ago, is also navigating the area. It will soon transit through the Strait of Messina.
Ionian Sea - Google Search
 
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ISIS kills 23 Syrian soldiers in overnight attack: SOHR​


Wladimir van Wilgenburg


ERBIL (Kurdistan 24) – In an overnight assault on a military bus in the Deir ez-Zor region, ISIS claimed the lives of 23 Syrian soldiers, as reported by the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR).
The attack took place in the desert of Al-Mayadeen, leaving 23 Syrian soldiers dead and 13 injured, according to the SOHR. The death toll is anticipated to increase due to the severity of the injuries sustained, the report added.
Read More: IS attack on Syria oil convoy kills 7: monitor

On Aug. 1st, ISIS militants targeted an army-guarded convoy of oil tankers in the Syrian desert, resulting in the deaths of seven individuals, including two civilians.
As per the most recent report from the US Defense Department's Lead Inspector General, published in August, ISIS has mainly operated in remote zones of the Syrian Desert, often near more densely populated areas, and has faced limited pressure from pro-regime forces.
Control over Deir ez-Zor's east bank along the Euphrates River lies with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), while the west bank is under the authority of the Syrian government and its allies.

The Pentagon report cited insights from the US Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), which indicated that anti-ISIS operations conducted by the Syrian government and Iran-backed forces in the desert have shown limited effectiveness.
“These forces rely on both a network of checkpoints, and on intermittent and ineffective mounted ground patrols around known ISIS operating areas,” the report said.
“The DIA said that these tactics did not durably dislodge ISIS members operating in the Syrian Desert during the quarter. Syrian regime forces rely on less experienced military units, foreign partners, and poorly disciplined Syrian paramilitary forces to prevent ISIS’s low-level insurgency in the desert from growing.”
Moreover, the DIA said that some of these security forces, notably Iran-backed foreign units, alienate locals around ISIS operating areas.
https://www.kurdistan24.net/en/story/32234-ISIS-kills-23-Syrian-soldiers-in-overnight-attack:-SOHR
 
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SAM
@SAMSyria0
Aug 10
Replying to @SAMSyria0

Sputnik reported that a huge explosion occurred in an ammunition depot at the American base in Al-Shaddadi, other sources reported that ambulances had arrived at the site of the explosion with the arrival of two American helicopters from the direction of Iraqi territory.
 
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The missing peace between Syria and Turkey​


Week in Review @AlMonitor


Assad rules out Turkey normalization (for now)
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is in no rush to bury the hatchet with his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
In an interview with Sky News last week, Assad dismissed a meeting with Erdogan, saying it would legitimize Turkey’s occupation of northern Syria.

Turkey maintains an estimated 5,000-10,000 troops in northern Syria and administers via its political and armed Syrian proxy forces about 3,400 square miles of Syrian territory.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has been trying for years to get Syria and Turkey to reconcile. In May, the foreign ministers of Russia, Turkey, Syria and Iran met in Moscow and agreed to move ahead on a road map for rapprochement, but that process seems to have stalled.
As Danny Makki reports from Damascus in an upcoming piece, don’t expect Syria-Turkey rapprochement to run parallel with Syria’s normalization with Arab states.
While reconciliation with Turkey would be the most consequential of Syria’s "normalizations," Assad may have his reasons for maintaining an uneasy state of neither peace nor war — a grey zone-style stalemate in northern Syria — at least for now.
Although Erdogan has said he is in principle willing to meet, Assad is the one holding back.
He told Sky News that “terrorism in Syria is made in Turkey.” He blames Erdogan, among others, for backing Salafi and armed groups during the Syrian uprising. Assad appears unmoved by the Arab League rapprochement, saying that ties recently restored with some Arab states will likely remain “formal.” He considers the normalization trend less of a lifeline and more vindication of his resilience and staying power.

Syrian refugees caught in stalemate
Among Erdogan’s priorities in negotiations with Syria is the return of 3.6 million Syrian refugees, given their strain on Turkey’s economy.
While Assad claims to seek the return of all 5.8 million Syrian refugees living in neighboring countries, his preference may be to reduce the numbers over a longer time span. Syria’s government institutions are a shambles. The economy is reeling from US and international sanctions, the toll of the civil war and the consequences of both the earthquake earlier this year and the Russia-Ukraine war. GDP growth is projected to decline this year by 3.5% following a similar contraction last year.
Assad could also be suspicious of many of the returning refugees, especially those who may have been part of the uprising or opposition or their family members.
Some Syrians are nonetheless returning home, if at a trickle. UNHCR reported 51,300 returns in 2022, up from 38,000 in 2021. A survey by UNHCR last year found that while 58% of Syrian refugees hoped to return, only 1.7% planned to do so in the next year because of concerns about safety, security and the lack of jobs, housing and basic services.

Syria, Turkey and the Kurds in grey zone
For Erdogan, the occupation of northern Syria is central to his overriding goal of the "complete elimination" of the armed wings of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) based in Syria and Iraq. In Turkey’s score, the primarily Kurdish US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) are also lumped in with the PKK.
Six Turkish soldiers were killed in clashes with PKK militants in Iraqi Kurdistan this week.
In a major foreign policy address last week, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said that Turkey will “give no respite to the terrorist organizations and the forces behind them” and asked “some NATO countries to immediately end their overt or covert cooperation with the PKK in Syria and Iraq" as the alliance awaits Turkey's parliament to ratify Sweden's membership, as Ezgi Akin reports.
The essence of the elusive Russian "deal" would be to broker an agreement between the Syrian government and the SDF Kurds, on terms acceptable to Ankara. But Moscow, even before its invasion of Ukraine and especially now, can hardly pitch itself as a reliable guarantor of such an arrangement.

Assad therefore sees little advantage, for now, in an agreement with Erdogan. He may not mind Turkey’s open-ended Syria quagmire, with no way out except via Damascus. He also doesn’t mind Turkish attacks on SDF-controlled areas, within limits. Turkish attacks by occupation forces reinforce the regime’s sense of siege, as do the hard-hitting US sanctions and the regular Israeli attacks on Iranian armed groups and bases in Syria. So Assad can wait for a better offer or until conditions change.
There also appears to be no military option for either side. The Syrian military is in no position to take Turkey and its proxy forces head on. And Turkey would be loath to launch any major military operation in areas such as "rebel-held" Idlib in northwest Syria, which could spark another wave of refugees into Turkey.
There are costs to the status quo. In addition to the substantial humanitarian toll, a fragile and divided Syria remains vulnerable to terrorist groups. Syria has suffered three deadly attacks this month by Islamic State terrorists, including one today that killed at least 26 Syrian soldiers and injured 11 in Deir ez-Zor province, as Adam Lucente reports.

No way out in Idlib
Also this week, Syria signed off on UN-administered humanitarian aid to be delivered into areas outside of its control from crossings in Turkey. Syria had previously opposed assistance entering from Turkey, claiming it was a violation of Syrian sovereignty. The agreement this week should increase Damascus’s influence over subsequent aid deliveries, as Amberin Zaman reports.
The decision to allow the UN aid is of a piece with Assad’s calibrated normalization drive and the grey zone standoff with Turkey. The Syrian government, which is recognized by the UN, has dealt itself back into negotiations over aid entering the country and will likely continue to push for assistance to be delivered through government-administered areas.
“Sovereignty and time are on Assad’s side,” said Joshua Landis, director of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma. “He is, by the basis of international law, getting the upper hand with the UN and international organizations and aid agencies, who increasingly will be forced to work with the Syrian government.”

Idlib, by the way, underscores the grey zone dilemma for Damascus, Ankara and even the West. The province’s population, swollen by waves of internally displaced Syrians, is estimated at 4.5 million. They live in miserable conditions. Idlib is also primarily controlled by the Organization of the Liberation of the Levant (Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham), which has been designated a terrorist group by both the United States and the United Nations. Idlib’s rebel groups represent no significant threat to the Syrian government at this time. Ankara and Damascus aren’t looking to force a showdown. The United States is not actively seeking Assad’s overthrow and even if it was, it would likely not be backing Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham, given its al-Qaeda roots.
Idlib and its people therefore remain in a kind of no-man’s land, locked in grey zone conflict between Ankara and Damascus and subject to a broader conflict and tragedy for Syrians that seems without end.
www.al-monitor.com

The missing peace between Syria and Turkey

Erdogan, Assad and the West all seem to be accepting a low-level grey zone conflict in Syria.
www.al-monitor.com www.al-monitor.com
 
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Türkiye Quietly Renounces NATO Links, but Not NATO Benefits​



Commentary
Türkiye on Aug. 3, made its most pointed renunciation of its ties to NATO.

President Reçep Tayyip Erdoğan, who was sworn into office again on June 2, re-structured his Armed Forces leadership, removing all leaders who had held NATO appointments.
Türkiye, as a result, has stopped attempting to balance its NATO membership off against its commitments to Russia. It has, de facto, now thrown in its lot with Eurasia.
Related Stories


The new appointments come amidst a crisis in the Turkish Armed Forces which have seen, in recent years, a marked decline in the professionalism of key officers. President Erdoğan has favored political loyalty to him over operational experience, often replacing professional military leaders with Gendarmerie (Jendarma) generals.
The Turkish Supreme Military Council (Yüksek Askerî Şûra: YAŞ) met on Aug. 3, at the Presidential Palace under the chairmanship of President Erdoğan, with the main focus on the annual reviews of the senior officers of the Turkish Armed Forces (Türk Silahlı Kuvvetleri: TSK). Before the meeting, and in accordance with protocol, the president accompanied members of the YAŞ to the mausoleum of Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, where he laid a wreath and signed the Official Book, in which, after praising the rôle of the Armed Forces, referred to the new strategic goal of the country as the “Century of Turkey,” promising “an increase in the strength of the army.”
The “Century of Turkey” plan, which includes the “Blue Homeland” doctrine, specifically targets the interests of Greece. Senior officers were promoted who were known for their anti-Western profile and who were involved in the contrived 2017 “Ergenekon” and 2013 “Varioupoula” purge scandals.

A new Chief of General Staff was appointed, along with a new Chief of Land Forces (GH) and a new Chief of Air Force (THK), while the Chief of Naval Forces (TDK) remained in his position. The new Chief of the General Staff was the former 2nd Army Commander, Gen. Metin Gürak, who replaced Gen. Yasar Güler, who was appointed Defense Minister in the new Government in June 2023.

Deputy Chief of General Staff Gen. Selçuk Bayraktaroğlu was named as commander of land forces. Chief of Air Force and Anti-Aircraft Missile Defence Gen. Ziya Cemal Kadoığlu was named commander of the Air Force (Türk Hava Kuvvetleri: THK). Adm. E. Tatlioğlu, the chief of the South-Western Command, remained in his position.
During the meeting, 32 senior officers were promoted and 63 officers of the rank of colonel or equivalent became senior officers. It was decided to increase the number of senior officers by 20 to reach 286, to fill administrative positions, as many new Brigade and especially commando-level formations had been created.

Gen. Gürak became the first Chief of General Staff to be appointed without prior service as a chief of a service branch. This requirement had been dropped by President Erdoğan to give him more flexibility in appointing loyalists to the top posts. None of the newly appointed chiefs have served in NATO or other Western countries’ posts or schools, despite the fact that, in the TSK, officers with NATO experience had been highly regarded.
The Chief of General Staff, Gen. Gürak, does have operational experience. From his service with the 2nd Armored Brigade of the 1st Army (Istanbul) and as Commander of the Army Air Force and the 4th Army Corps (Ankara), he is familiar with the operational plans concerning the Ægean and Thrace. He served as an adviser in Libya when Turkey established military bases and supported Islamist forces against Cairo-backed Gen. Khalifa Haftar.

Gen. Gürak speaks Arabic, considered important at a time when Erdoğan is investing in relations with the rich Arab countries of the Gulf. He took a controversial stance on the night of the July 15, 2016, “coup attempt” as commander of the 4th Army Corps and Ankara Fortress, and was appreciated by Erdoğan for the assistance of the 2nd Army units in the earthquakes of February 2023, since the affected regions were in his area of responsibility.

The new Air Force Chief has neither NATO nor any particular operational experience. He is, however, considered an extreme nationalist. He was also involved on the night of the “coup attempt,” at the Air Operations Center (in Eskişehir).
President Erdoğan also conducted another purge of the Police-Security Directorate in early August 2023, again favoring political loyalists over professional and operationally-experienced officers: 52 out of a total of 81 prefectural directors, who were considered loyal to former Interior Minister Süleyman Soylu, were removed.

www.theepochtimes.com

Türkiye Quietly Renounces NATO Links, but Not NATO Benefits

CommentaryTürkiye on Aug. 3, made its most pointed renunciation of its ties to NATO.President Reçep Tayyip Erdoğan, who was sworn into office again on June 2, re-structured his Armed Forces leadership,...
www.theepochtimes.com www.theepochtimes.com
 
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Is Israel willing to strike Iranian effort to destabilize the North?​


By JONATHAN SPYER​

An Israeli airstrike killed four Syrian soldiers in an attack on targets in the Damascus area Sunday night, according to reports in foreign and regional media. The pro-regime SANA news agency confirmed that “Four army personnel were martyred, and four others were injured.”

The Opposition-linked Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), meanwhile, gave a slightly different figure, writing, “Israeli airstrikes targeted, in the early hours of Monday morning, several positions hosting warehouses and military posts of Iranian-backed militias in the vicinity of the area of Damascus International Airport, the area of Demas Airport and the surrounding areas of Al-Keswa to the west of Damascus.” The Observatory also reported that “four regime soldiers” were killed, but added that two other “unidentified persons” also died.
This latest strike is part of an apparent increased tempo of Israeli operations against the Iranian infrastructure in Syria. Again according to SOHR, Monday’s attack was the latest in a total of 22 attacks carried out by Israeli forces against Syria in the course of 2023. The Observatory reports that 79 people have been killed in these attacks, including six members of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and three members of Lebanese Hezbollah, as well as 22 IRGC-backed non-Syrian militiamen, and four IRGC-backed Syrian militiamen. The bulk of the remaining casualties were members of the Syrian regime’s security forces.

If SOHR’s figures are accurate, or close to accuracy, this represents a considerable death toll. Israel’s actions this year, of course, are part of a longer campaign. Jerusalem’s “war between wars,” or MABAM in Hebrew, has been prosecuted for over a decade now. Without doubt, it has left a trail of destroyed ordnance, shattered convoys, and dead operatives across Syria. Israeli national security officials past and present appear satisfied with the progress made. Some 80% of what Iran would like to have had in place by now in terms of infrastructure facing Israel has been neutralized, according to one estimate.
Yet there is room for asking whether the situation is really as optimal as is often presented. Specifically, the question is whether the war between wars is addressing the totality of the Iranian project to Israel’s North, or whether, as a result of the undoubted successes in one particular area (the targeting, by air power or occasionally by artillery, based on successful intelligence gathering, of specific Iranian static or moving targets in Syria), Israel has allowed itself to be channeled into only focusing on that area.

A streak of light is seen in the night sky in the vicinity of the Syrian capital Damascus during what Syrian authorities said was an Israeli air strike, in this handout released by state news agency SANA on February 24, 2020. (credit: SANA/HANDOUT VIA REUTERS)
IF THE LATTER is the case, it would mean that large and perhaps decisive parts of the Iranian project are being left to themselves, and are growing in strength, with Israel deterred by political or military means from striking at them. The situation is not static, since if Israel is perceived as largely acquiescing to rules of the game imposed by Iran, this will lead to a decline in Israel’s deterrent power, making further aggressive moves by Iranian proxies more likely.
Unfortunately, and despite Israel’s ongoing air campaign, a considerable body of evidence exists in support of this perception. The emerging picture is one in which Iran is operating its various proxies in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon as a single structure, without excessive reference to formal state borders. Israel, meanwhile, because of political and military constraints, is attacking only a limited number of elements within this structure.

Perhaps most significantly, the latest evidence suggests that significant parts of the formal structure of the Assad regime in Syria itself are today operating as fully-fledged elements of the Iranian project.
In the field of arms shipments, for example, the Syrian National Defense Forces, the 4th Armored Division, the Air Force Intelligence Directorate, and elements of the Border Guard all act in cooperation with the IRGC, Lebanese Hezbollah, and the Iraqi Shia militias in the process of shipping arms by land, sea, and air to the various components of the Iranian structure between the Iraq-Iran border and the Mediterranean Sea (and perhaps beyond). The IRGC, that is Iran, is the senior, controlling element in this process.

Recent reports by the Alma Research and Education Center, which focuses on the challenges to Israel’s North, detail how CERS, the Syrian Scientific Studies and Research Center, has come under direct IRGC and Lebanese Hezbollah control. According to the report, CERS, which employs around 20,000 personnel, is engaged in production and development of advanced weapons systems, including chemical and biological weapons. An additional report from the same source describes the wholesale assimilation of an IRGC-linked militia, the Imam Ali Brigade, into the 4th Division. The report notes that “the 4th Division has evolved into an Iranian proxy, reporting directly to the Quds Force, which conducts direct offensive operations against Israel and American soldiers in Syria.”

In the area of smuggling of the amphetamine-type stimulant Captagon, which has become a crucial source of income for the Iranian-led bloc in this area, a similar level of unification pertains. The drugs are produced in Lebanon and Syria and smuggled across the border from Syria to Jordan. Participating in this process are, once more, the 4th Division and Air Force Intelligence, along with Hezbollah, southern Bedouin tribes such as the al-Nauaimi, who work in close cooperation with Hezbollah, and elements of the Syrian Border Guard trusted by the Iranian element. The IRGC manages the process. Try figuring out from that list where Iran begins and its proxies, including the Syrian regime, end.
THE SMUGGLING routes across the border are known for the transfer of drugs. Might other materials, including weaponry and ammunition also be transported the same way, and by the same networks? It certainly seems plausible. As is well known, the weaponry for the Iran-supported emergent militias of Jenin and Nablus largely enters from Jordan.
A week ago, the Israeli media reported that an “unusual” attempt at smuggling had been intercepted near Ashdot Yaacov in the Jordan Valley. No further information regarding the unusual nature of the attempt has emerged. But it should be noted that weaponry making its way from Jordan into the West Bank, in particular more sophisticated forms of armament, has first to be brought into Jordan.

Iranian project operates across borders​

What may be glimpsed from all these examples is that the Iranian project operates across borders, with a clear hierarchy of control, and without regard to the distinctions separating countries, or separating supposedly sovereign governments in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon from the Iranian interest. Israel, by contrast, does respect these distinctions. It leaves Iraq alone, and avoids attacking the Syrian regime (thereby also avoiding attacking the manifold Iranian assets which today exist under the official banner of the regime, as well as those elements of the regime which today work in close cooperation with the IRGC.) Perhaps most serious of all, in Lebanon, Israel accepts a situation of mutual deterrence with Hezbollah, the IRGC’s oldest franchise, and as a consequence, largely leaves it to itself.
The end result of all this, it seems, is a growing confidence and even recklessness on the part of the enemy. This cannot be traced only to the current internal unrest in Israel. Iranian outlets have been talking about the “unification of the fronts” since Ramadan of 2021.

In March, an ominous incident took place in which an operative came from Hezbollah-controlled southern Lebanon down to Megiddo, carrying a powerful improvised explosive device. In April, 34 rockets were launched from southern Lebanon, with the certain knowledge of Hezbollah. In early July, an anti-tank missile was launched at Ghajar, on Israel’s northern border. This is without reference to the legion of lesser provocations also taking place along the border, including the placing of temporary structures on Israeli soil by Hezbollah.
The continued successes of Israeli air power over Syria are worthy of note. Nevertheless, given the broader realities outlined here, the increasingly urgent question is whether the current dimensions of the war between wars remain adequate for addressing the task at hand, namely, the need to strike at the full fabric of the Iranian effort to Israel’s North, both in order to substantively weaken this effort and to rebuild deterrence against its most forward elements.
Choosing not to decide on this matter is also a choice, namely the choice to acquiesce to the continued Iranian advance.
www.jpost.com

Is Israel willing to strike Iranian effort to destabilize the North?

BEHIND THE LINES: There is room for asking whether the situation is really as optimal as is often presented.
www.jpost.com www.jpost.com
 
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vanessa beeley
@VanessaBeeley
51m

#Damascus under attack. Began around 4.10am. Various targets from West to East going by sound of explosions. Fires still burning. Assume #Israel but waiting official statement. After Resistance attacks against #AlQaeda & #US illegal military bhttps://twitter.com/VanessaBeeley/status/1690542355516981248?s=20ases in north-east #Syria
 
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