CORONA Provisional Death Counts for Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19)

[Bps1691]

This is what drives me absolutely crazy!!!!

The CDC just came out with statistics showing through April 25, 2020 deaths for CONVID-19 only deaths (based upon death certificates)- 37,308

Interesting seeing the explanations of these numbers in the footnotes. It says they are from real death certificates so they are probably the legitimate numbers available. Like all stats they can be changed in the future of can lag behind a week or so.

Here's the table:

Table 1. Deaths involving coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), pneumonia, and influenza reported to NCHS by week ending date, United States. Week ending 2/1/2020 to 4/25/2020.*

Data as of May 1, 2020

Week ending date in which the death occurred	COVID-19 Deaths (U07.1)1	Deaths from All Causes	Percent of Expected Deaths2	Pneumonia Deaths (J12.0–J18.9)3	Deaths with Pneumonia and COVID-19 (J12.0–J18.9 and U07.1)3	Influenza Deaths (J09–J11)4	Deaths with Pneumonia, Influenza, or COVID-19 U07.1 or J09–J18.9)5
Total Deaths	37,308	719,438	97	64,382	16,564	5,846	90,165
2/1/2020	0	57,266	97	3,688	0	469	4,157
2/8/2020	1	57,615	97	3,672	0	494	4,167
2/15/2020	0	56,878	97	3,693	0	517	4,210
2/22/2020	0	56,806	98	3,557	0	536	4,093
2/29/2020	5	56,843	99	3,626	3	619	4,247
3/7/2020	25	56,212	97	3,719	14	583	4,312
3/14/2020	49	53,968	95	3,676	25	578	4,277
3/21/2020	493	53,979	95	4,150	226	496	4,907
3/28/2020	2,712	57,430	103	5,624	1,235	410	7,463
4/4/2020	8,082	64,313	115	8,724	3,875	432	13,148
4/11/2020	12,262	66,577	120	9,841	5,468	430	16,744
4/18/2020	10,408	55,062	101	7,606	4,402	215	13,663
4/25/2020	3,271	26,489	49	2,806	1,316	67	4,777

NOTE: Number of deaths reported in this table are the total number of deaths received and coded as of the date of analysis and do not represent all deaths that occurred in that period. The United States population, based on 2018 postcensal estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau, is 327,167,434.
*Data during this period are incomplete because of the lag in time between when the death occurred and when the death certificate is completed, submitted to NCHS and processed for reporting purposes. This delay can range from 1 week to 8 weeks or more, depending on the jurisdiction, age, and cause of death.
1Deaths with confirmed or presumed COVID-19, coded to ICD–10 code U07.1
2Percent of expected deaths is the number of deaths for all causes for this week in 2020 compared to the average number across the same week in 2017–2019. Previous analyses of 2015–2016 provisional data completeness have found that completeness is lower in the first few weeks following the date of death (<25%), and then increases over time such that data are generally at least 75% complete within 8 weeks of when the death occurred (8).
3Pneumonia death counts exclude pneumonia deaths involving influenza.
4Influenza death counts include deaths with pneumonia or COVID-19 also listed as a cause of death.
5Deaths with confirmed or presumed COVID-19, pneumonia, or influenza, coded to ICD–10 codes U07.1 or J09–J18.9.

...

How it works

The National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) uses incoming data from death certificates to produce provisional COVID-19 death counts. These include deaths occurring within the 50 states and the District of Columbia. COVID-19 deaths are identified using a new ICD–10 code. When COVID-19 is reported as a cause of death – or when it is listed as a “probable” or “presumed” cause — the death is coded as U07.1. This can include cases with or without laboratory confirmation.

Why these numbers are different

Provisional death counts may not match counts from other sources, such as media reports or numbers from county health departments. Our counts often track 1–2 weeks behind other data for a number of reasons: Death certificates take time to be completed. There are many steps involved in completing and submitting a death certificate. Waiting for test results can create additional delays. States report at different rates. Currently, 63% of all U.S. deaths are reported within 10 days of the date of death, but there is significant variation among jurisdictions. It takes extra time to code COVID-19 deaths. While 80% of deaths are electronically processed and coded by NCHS within minutes, most deaths from COVID-19 must be coded manually, which takes an average of 7 days. Other reporting systems use different definitions or methods for counting deaths.

Things to know about the data

Provisional counts are not final and are subject to change. Counts from previous weeks are continually revised as additional records are received and processed. Provisional data are not yet complete. Counts will not include all deaths that occurred during a given time period, especially for more recent periods. However, we can estimate how complete our numbers are by looking at the average number of deaths reported in previous years. Death counts should not be compared across jurisdictions. Some jurisdictions report deaths on a daily basis, while others report deaths weekly or monthly. In addition, vital record reporting may also be affected or delayed by COVID-19 related response activities.

Source:

Provisional Death Counts for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)

National Center for Health Statistics

www.cdc.gov

 

[Dozdoats]

Lies

Damn lies

Statistics

Government statistics

 

[TheSearcher]

I was just about to post this. We are being played with on a horrible scale.

 

[Dozdoats]

An Egregious Statistical Horror Story — Reprint Of George Gilder Column

Used with permission from the original American Institute for Economic Research article. Regular readers: No Doom tomorrow. With the latest reports of plummeting death rates from all causes, this c…

wmbriggs.com

An Egregious Statistical Horror Story — Reprint Of George Gilder Column
by BriggsPosted on May 1, 2020

Used with permission from the original American Institute for Economic Research article. Regular readers: No Doom tomorrow.

With the latest reports of plummeting death rates from all causes, this crisis is over. The pandemic of doom erupted as a panic of pols and is now a comedy of Mash-minded med admins and stooges, covering their ifs ands and butts with ever more morbid and distorted statistics.

The crisis now will hit the politicians and political Doctor Faucis who gullibly accepted and trumpeted what statistician William Briggs calls “the most colossal and costly blown forecast of all time.”
An egregious statistical horror story of millions of projected deaths, suffused with incense and lugubrious accents from Imperial College of London to Harvard School of Public Health, prompted the pols to impose a vandalistic lockdown on the economy. It would have been an outrage even if the assumptions were not wildly astronomically wrong.
Flattening the curve was always a fool’s errand that widened the damage.

President Trump had better take notice. He will soon own this gigantic botch of policy and leadership. No one will notice that his opponents urged even more panicky blunders.

The latest figures on overall death rates from all causes show no increase at all. Deaths are lower than in 2019, 2018, 2017 and 2015, slightly higher than in 2016. Any upward bias is imparted by population growth.

Now writing a book on the crisis with bestselling author Jay Richards, Briggs concludes: “Since pneumonia deaths are up, yet all deaths are down, it must mean people are being recorded as dying from other things at smaller rates than usual.” Deaths from other causes are simply being ascribed to the coronavirus.

As usual every year, deaths began trending downward in January. It’s an annual pattern. Look it up. Since the lockdown began in mid-March, the politicians cannot claim that their policies had anything to do with the declining death rate.
A global study published in Israel by Professor Isaac Ben-Israel, chairman of the Israeli Space Agency and Council on Research and Development, shows that “the spread of the coronavirus declines to almost zero after 70 days—no matter where it strikes, and no matter what measures governments impose to try to thwart it.”

In fact, by impeding herd immunity, particularly among students and other non-susceptible young people, the lockdown in the U.S. has prolonged and exacerbated the medical problem. As Briggs concludes, “People need to get out into virus-killing sunshine and germicidal air.”

This flu like all previous viral flues will give way only to herd immunity, whether through natural propagation of an extremely infectious pathogen, or through the success of one of the hundreds of vaccine projects.

No evidence indicates that this flu was exceptionally dangerous. On March 20th, the French published a major controlled study that shows no excess mortality at all from coronavirus compared to other flues. SARS and Mers were both much more lethal and did not occasion what Briggs’ reader “Uncle Dave” described as “taking a hammer and sickle to the economy.”

We now know that the crisis was a comedy of errors. The Chinese let it get going in the raw bat markets of Wuhan. But together with the Koreans, the Chinese dithered and demurred and allowed six weeks of rampant propagation to create herd immunity before they began locking everyone up. Therefore, the Chinese and Koreans were among the first to recover.

The Italians scared everybody with their haphazard health system and smoking fogies. Crammed together in subways and tenements, the New Yorkers registered a brief blip of extreme cases. Intubations and ventilators turned out not to help (80 percent died). This sowed fear and frustration among medical personnel slow to see that the problem was impaired hemogloblin in the blood rather than lung damage.
The New York media piled on with panic, with bogus reports of rising deaths. “Coronavirus deaths” soared by assuming that people dying with the virus were dying from it and then by ascribing to the coronavirus other deaths among people with symptoms of pulmonary distress, even without being tested.

Now jacking up the case rate will be further pointless testing. As Briggs points out,

“Fauci is calling for ‘tripling’ of testing, which can only boost these dailies [case totals]. And make it seem like there’s a genuine increase occurring. Oh my! The daily reported cases are up! It must mean the disease is spreading!
“No. It could also mean, and probably does given all the other evidence we now have from sampling, that the disease was already there, and we just now have measured it.”

The death rate rises with further reclassification of pneumonia and other pulmonary deaths. When we reach herd immunity, and nearly everyone has the antigen, nearly all deaths can be chalked up to COVID19. Hey, it will be Quod Erat Demonstrandum for the panic mongers.

In a fascinating open letter to German Prime Minister Angela Merkel, epidemiologist Mihai Grigoriu concludes that with the French study, corroborated by findings from a Stanford antibody seroprevalence study in Santa Clara county, “the case for extreme measures collapses like a house of cards.” Grigoriu says that since the virus has already spread widely in the general population, efforts to stop further spread are both futile and destructive.

So let’s stop pretending that our policies have been rational and need to be phased out, as if they once had a purpose. They should be reversed summarily and acknowledged to be a mistake, perpetrated by statisticians with erroneous computer models.
Perhaps then we can learn from this experience with the flaws of expertise not to shut down the economy again for the totally bogus “crisis” of climate change.

 

[naturallysweet]

This has already been debunked. It can take weeks for normal death certificates to reach the feds. when states like New York got backlogged from massive death increases, then it takes longer.

look at the increase in mortality rate above normal. The fact that it went to 120 proves more people were dying than normal. Unless you can prove we had hit squads going around killing people, it was the virus. Then the death rate magically dropped to 49% of expected!!

That 49% should have clued you in that these numbers are not up to date!!!

 

[TheSearcher]

This has already been debunked. It can take weeks for normal death certificates to reach the feds. when states like New York got backlogged from massive death increases, then it takes longer.

look at the increase in mortality rate above normal. The fact that it went to 120 proves more people were dying than normal. Unless you can prove we had hit squads going around killing people, it was the virus. Then the death rate magically dropped to 49% of expected!!

That 49% should have clued you in that these numbers are not up to date!!!

So, you're saying that the CDC didn't revise the numbers down? Or that they were revised down and we panicked over the initial projections?

I'm just trying to understand what you are saying has been debunked.

 

[night driver]

You're suggesting that Johns-Hopkins has more TIMELY data, correct? And that would be why they are claiming 66,369, as of 10:32:00 Tonight.

 

[Kris Gandillon]

You're suggesting that Johns-Hopkins has more TIMELY data, correct? And that would be why they are claiming 66,369, as of 10:32:00 Tonight.

For the record...

The Hopkins team scrapes its numbers from dozens of sources, including the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the World Health Organization, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control and the National Health Commission of the People's Republic of China, as well as U.S. state health departments and media-aggregating websites.

So if the CDC adjusted their number downward, we should see that reflected in the John Hopkins data sometime soon. They HAVE made adjustments to prior days several days later. I update my data in my analysis and projection when those adjustments occur.

 

[glennb6]

After reading great amounts on the faults and BS of the PCR test, seems right to be very suspicious of other tests.

I've done some searching on antigen testing within the corona thread, as well as some google searches to start forming an opinion on the accuracy and validity there of.
Haven't found much info that says they're very dependable, well other than the google msm garbage, nor have I found much that says they are not.

Would be interested in reading any links, posts, etc from the gang here that can further my information.

Thanks.