ECON Poll: Hyperinflation or not?

[Tristan]

Simple poll of the TB Group Mind: what maximum level of inflation do you think we will experience within the next two years?

I didn't specify precise numbers regarding what constitutes the various levels, as I didn't want this to devolve into "Number of Angels that fit on the head of a Pin" type issues.

Also, I left off negative inflation (deflation) as it would get too unweildy; but feel free to discuss your thinking below.

 

[hiwall]

Obviously just a guess by any of us. I said high.

 

[Dozdoats]

Yes.

 

[Freeholder]

I said high, but I don't know. Could be totally wrong.

Kathleen

 

[Tristan]

So looking at the results, the overall graph matches my internal guesstimate of where we're going: High inflation is a given, and Hyperinflation (and likely capitulation of the Dollar) not outside the realm of possibility.

Thanks to those who responded.

 

[bbbuddy]

I've been converting cash to hard goods as fast as I can. Anything that will feed me and keep me warm.
I don't want to be "that guy" trying to buy a loaf of bread with a wagon full of cash....

 

[Dozdoats]

No matter where we are going, it is not where I want to go.

 

[Donghe Surfer]

It'll be bad, but don't think like Weimar Germany. Nonetheless, look for the banksters/government to change some rules in the next few years.

 

[bbbuddy]

It'll be bad, but don't think like Weimar Germany. Nonetheless, look for the banksters/government to change some rules in the next few years.

And why not like Weimar Germany, Zimbabwe, Venezuela, etc. We are just as susceptible, especially as petrodollars are fading fast...
We don't have "special magic" and the population is dumber than ever before, plus browning us as fast as they can.
Making trillions out of thin air is bound to make your dollars ever more worthless.

I'm my estimation we're into the bend in the hockey stick.

 

[Groucho]

Most likely not hyper inflation. That's the end of value. If that occurs, hang on. It's about more than mere money at that point. Probably "moderate" to harsh inflation which will (hopefully) lead to a blood bath for the radical left. Possibly violence against them in some places if inflation runs into the high inflation (what does that mean?) zone.

Prospects are very dicey for the next several years or more. It's gonna be tough like people haven't seen in a very long time. Think the panic in the 1890's tough.

 

[bbbuddy]

Don't let your "Overton Window" get stuck. All things are possible, some very bad things are probable at this point.
---->The worst of the worst are in charge, and they hate you<-----

Don't die regretting that you could have prepared, but didn't.

 

[Hi-D]

You will not see extended high inflation. The fed has a dual mandate.

The Federal Reserve Act mandates that the Federal Reserve conduct monetary policy "so as to promote effectively the goals of maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates."1 Even though the act lists three distinct goals of monetary policy, the Fed's mandate for monetary policy is commonly ...Jul 29, 2021

Federal Reserve Board - Monetary Policy: What Are Its Goals? How Does It Work?

Right now by the numbers they have accomplished maximum employment. Stable pricing is next on the list. They could easily bring inflation down but that would also cause great dislocation in the employment part of the mandate. It's a herd mentality type of problem. The herd is crying for higher rates.

 

[Dozdoats]

IMO there is no precedent for this situation...

 

[Henry Bowman]

Being as they want to bring about a "Reset" they will need to finish destroying the currency ala hyper/parabolic inflation.

Once that begins they will say "See, capitalism does not work"

And then you will own nothing and be happy.

Why? Because we have and will continue to allow it.

 

[dstraito]

Calling for hyperinflation is kinda of like calling for guilty verdicts for a politicians.

You think it is a sure thing until an intervention occurs.

 

[Hi-D]

IMO there is no precedent for this situation...

Just a mandate. Full employment, stable prices. We got the best job numbers in decades remember. Along with almost the lowest rates. LOL.

U.S. weekly jobless claims: (cnbc.com)

ECONOMY
Weekly jobless claims fall to 184,000, the lowest level in more than 52 years
PUBLISHED THU, DEC 9 20218:31 AM ESTUPDATED THU, DEC 9 202110:40 AM EST

KEY POINTS

• Weekly jobless claims totaled 184,000 for the week ended Dec. 4, the lowest going back to Sept. 6, 1969.
• Continuing claims, which run a week behind the headline number, increased 38,000 to just shy of 2 million.

 

[KFhunter]

We will be shooting up another country before we see true hyperinflation.

 

[OldAndCrazy]

40%+ food increases.
50%+ fuel increases.
30 - 50%+ goods increases.
50 - 100%+ Home/Land increases.

High inflation isn't coming.

IT'S HERE!!

 

[20Gauge]

I said high, but I don't know. Could be totally wrong.

Kathleen

No you are not. We now have high inflation. Hyper would be 50% increase monthly. We are now seeing that on an annual basis.

Another way to consider it is as follows:

Normal 2% or below
Moderate less than 10%
High is over 10% or double digits. ( many of us believe we are here despite what the feds say )
Hyper is 50% monthly though I would argue 50% a 25% annual rate is on the cusp of hyper.

So by definition ( using the same government rules ) we are in high inflation now as we know for a fact inflation is double digits. Unless there is some control exercised, like opening a few pipe lines and drilling wells, we are going to fall over the cliff into hyper in the next year or three.

 

[Toosh]

I think it depends on where you live. People on both coasts and in big cities are likely to feel it bad as more of the poor and social-program-dependants are there. Big city people are more likely to pay rent. The big cities will find it difficult to keep up social services. Costs may spike into the hyper inflation area.

In the center of the country and rural areas, we Deplorables will do more gardening, more bartering and more community driven work to keep things going without the need for bureaucrats. It will cost more and it will hurt but not as much.

 

[Terrwyn]

I put high but I think there is going to be a total collapse. No one knows which scenario will set it off but I think it is closer than any of us can imagine.

 

[Tristan]

Calling for hyperinflation is kinda of like calling for guilty verdicts for a politicians.

You think it is a sure thing until an intervention occurs.

Just to be clear, I'm not "calling" for a hyperinflation; but I do think there's a greater possibility of it occurring than at any time in my memory.

There's still a lot they can do, but the question is what will they do?

 

[Tristan]

20Gauge said:

No you are not. We now have high inflation. Hyper would be 50% increase monthly. We are now seeing that on an annual basis.

Is 50% per month the conanical definition? I've seen several definitions, each different...

Another way to consider it is as follows:

Normal 2% or below
Moderate less than 10%
High is over 10% or double digits. ( many of us believe we are here despite what the feds say )

I believe we're currently in double digit annual inflation, as well.

Hyper is 50% monthly though I would argue 50% a 25% annual rate is on the cusp of hyper.

So by definition ( using the same government rules ) we are in high inflation now as we know for a fact inflation is double digits. Unless there is some control exercised, like opening a few pipe lines and drilling wells, we are going to fall over the cliff into hyper in the next year or three.

I don't know when or if, but it doesn't seem that those in charge have the Citizens of this country as their prime concern...

 

[Hi-D]

Just to be clear, I'm not "calling" for a hyperinflation; but I do think there's a greater possibility of it occurring than at any time in my memory.

There's still a lot they can do, but the question is what will they do?

They are going to double the speed of the taper. After that they are going to raise the federal funds rate a quarter to half a point. Larry Summers is calling for 4 rate moves next year. That would not be a good thing. Larry was not that good when he worked for the Obama administration. Little bit of a drama queen. This is not close to the late 70's early 80's. Made a lot of cash in short term trading back then. Too bad my metals brokerage went into receivership.

 

[Hi-D]

20Gauge said:

No you are not. We now have high inflation. Hyper would be 50% increase monthly. We are now seeing that on an annual basis.

Is 50% per month the conanical definition? I've seen several definitions, each different...

Another way to consider it is as follows:

Normal 2% or below
Moderate less than 10%
High is over 10% or double digits. ( many of us believe we are here despite what the feds say )

I believe we're currently in double digit annual inflation, as well.

Hyper is 50% monthly though I would argue 50% a 25% annual rate is on the cusp of hyper.

So by definition ( using the same government rules ) we are in high inflation now as we know for a fact inflation is double digits. Unless there is some control exercised, like opening a few pipe lines and drilling wells, we are going to fall over the cliff into hyper in the next year or three.

I don't know when or if, but it doesn't seem that those in charge have the Citizens of this country as their prime concern...

Let's just say that the peoples NEWS sources do not have the citizens of this country as their prime concern.

Ever read the Beige Book?

The Fed - Beige Book - December 1, 2021 (federalreserve.gov)

 

[shane]

And why not like Weimar Germany, Zimbabwe, Venezuela, etc. We are just as susceptible, especially as petrodollars are fading fast...
We don't have "special magic" and the population is dumber than ever before, plus browning us as fast as they can.
Making trillions out of thin air is bound to make your dollars ever more worthless.

I'm my estimation we're into the bend in the hockey stick.

Few know, much less see relevance of, that Wiemar Germany, Zimbabwe and Venezuela each, in the year before their currency began to really implode, had the fastest growing, and most profitable, stock market in the entire world for that year.

You can go look it up, you could have bet on their stock index and made more money there & then than anywhere else in the world that year, but you'd have had to of not been greedy and overstayed too long before cashing out of their currency and converting into something more stable before it all collapsed in a heap.

It was each their crazy & wild easy money printing that gave them their spectacular stock market rise and later, inevitable, currency fall. Many smarter than me say we are witnessing the same here in USA with why our stock market is breaking all-time records, too. And, that we risk same fate to our currency, too.

Panic Early, Beat the Rush!
- Shane

 

[20Gauge]

I put high but I think there is going to be a total collapse. No one knows which scenario will set it off but I think it is closer than any of us can imagine.

I expect the collapse is a bit off for now, but I am preparing to the best of my abilities. Plan for the worst and hope for the best!

 

[SageRock]

I think that there is a good chance that the United States will see hyperinflation by 2023. We're certainly in high inflation now. Hyperinflation is a different animal -- a complete loss of public confidence in the currency. My personal view is that 2022 will see accelerated high inflation, and that in 2023, things will go around the bend into a currency crisis.

In February 2019, I started the following thread:

ECON - History Sometimes Rhymes – Will There be an American Hyperinflation 2019-2023?

These two paragraphs are taken from my initial posting in that thread:

"The hyperinflation in Weimar Germany started a century ago, in 1919, and slowly accelerated until the final hyperbolic blow-off phase in 1923. Will history rhyme, and will we see an American (perhaps a global) hyperinflation from 2019 to a final blow-off phase in 2023?"

[as of February 2019]
"It's still early yet in this possible American hyperinflation. I doubt that anyone in 1919 Weimar Germany foresaw the horrific economic implosion of 1923 from the evidence available to the ordinary person at that time. Something similar may be about to occur in this country. The next four years will tell the tale."

 

[The Cub]

 

[gonewacky]

"that guy" trying to buy a loaf of bread with a wagon full of cash....

Going to get a loaf of bread..

 

[Sacajawea]

I voted hyperinflation, because too many people are mesmerized by the idea that the stock market is a health indicator of the economy. IT IS NOT for probably 75% of the population or more.

With supply chain issues, fuel increases (and shut off of production) -- and the insane green energy agenda -- the price of everything is increasing. I've always just used the weekly grocery store run as my indicator for decades now. Two years ago, buying pretty much the same as I do now, I could check out for under $100. Now, I'm lucky if it's under $200. (Because I build up my freezer stash I don't buy meat every week.)

That means American households have less $$$$ for heating/cooling, transportation, and housing costs. And very very little for clothing or discretionary purchases... and so it takes a while for the downstream (or upstream) effects of all this to hit where it hurts most: the CURRENCY. And I'm pretty sure the Chinese have been targeting the reserve currency slot for at least a decade. (Tho, they aren't a terribly good candidate at this point either.)

 

[Hi-D]

This is also not a Weimar Germany situation. Money was loaned to Germany to pay off it's war debt. For the most part our debt is owned by the guys in the mirror.

"Over the next four years, U.S. banks continued to lend Germany enough money to enable it to meet its reparation payments to countries such as France and the United Kingdom. These countries, in turn, used their reparation payments from Germany to service their war debts to the United States."


Milestones: 1921–1936 - Office of the Historian (state.gov)

 

[Southside]

I also voted hyperinflation.
The dollar is quickly being taken down as the "Reserve Currency". Additionally, the hegemony of using the dollar for all oil based transactions is also ending. All these dollars that have been used externally(outside the USA) are now going to be coming home. Each dollar is going to dilute the buying power of every other dollar in the USA.

Got Gold?

 

[WTSR]

I also voted hyperinflation.
The dollar is quickly being taken down as the "Reserve Currency". Additionally, the hegemony of using the dollar for all oil based transactions is also ending. All these dollars that have been used externally(outside the USA) are now going to be coming home. Each dollar is going to dilute the buying power of every other dollar in the USA.

Got Gold?

Seems they might crash the stock market to absorb the returning dollars.

 

[Hi-D]

Seems they might crash the stock market to absorb the returning dollars.

They will not completely crash it but they will scalp it. There are a lot of ways to destroy dollars and that system rules the world.

 

[Hi-D]

Some help in understanding the game.

How did Libyan money come to be printed in Britain? - BBC News

"The RAF has delivered £140m worth of Libyan banknotes back to the country after the downfall of Colonel Muammar Gaddafi. But why is so much foreign currency printed in the UK?

It is perhaps unsurprising that De La Rue, the British firm which printed the 280 million Libyan dinars (£140m) returned this week, is somewhat reticent about its business.

The banknotes were ordered by the Gaddafi regime a year ago but were seized following the imposition of sanctions by the United Nations.

When the rebels reached Tripoli and overthrew the Libyan leader, the UN agreed to lift sanctions and unfreeze some of the $20bn of assets the Libyan government had in the UK.

A total of 1.86 billion dinars (£929m) would be returned. Foreign Secretary William Hague said: "The bank notes will be used to pay the wages of Libyan public sector employees, including nurses, doctors, teachers and police officers."

 

[Tristan]

Seems they might crash the stock market to absorb the returning dollars.

Help me here - how would that work?

 

[Hi-D]

Help me here - how would that work?

People don't realize for the most part it is a zero-sum game. There are expenses (fees and commissions etc.) but for the most part a zero-sum game. Dollar destruction. Flushed down the toilet, up the chimney or out the tail pipe.

 

[WTSR]

Help me here - how would that work?

The dollars you speak of are all digi-dollars. A ton of Digi-dollars come back a ton get wiped out in the stock market. Net change Zero.

 

[Hi-D]

Kenny Rogers - The Gambler - YouTube

"Cause every hand's a winner
And every hand's a loser"

The destruction in crypto.

"How much energy does mining take? The Digiconomist's Bitcoin Energy Consumption Index estimated that one Bitcoin transaction takes 1,544 kWh to complete, or the equivalent of approximately 53 days of power for the average US household. To put that into money terms, the average cost per kWh in the US is 13 cents.Aug 31, 2021"

Here's how much electricity it takes to mine Bitcoin and why people are worried - CNET