ECON History Sometimes Rhymes – Will There be an American Hyperinflation 2019-2023?

[SageRock]

The hyperinflation in Weimar Germany started a century ago, in 1919, and slowly accelerated until the final hyperbolic blow-off phase in 1923. Will history rhyme, and will we see an American (perhaps a global) hyperinflation from 2019 to a final blow-off phase in 2023?

It’s still early yet, but there are a few signs that inflation is starting to accelerate. The slow but steady price increases in various commodities appear to be gaining traction and slowly starting to accelerate. Major consumer manufacturers are passing on price increases more readily for food and for paper products. Fuel prices have also been rising recently, although they tend to be somewhat volatile for a variety of reasons and not always the best early indicator.

The Federal Reserve appears ready to stop raising interest rates and to cease quantitative tightening. In fact, there are indications that the Federal Reserve will once again engage in quantitative easing. Foreigners are less and less interested in buying United States Treasuries, and the Fed may begin to monetize the debt once more.

Socialists in Congress want to spend trillions of dollars on various nonsensical programs related to nonexistent problems. There is certainly no shortage of “Something for Nothing” people waiting for a handout, including the increasingly large numbers of illegal aliens invading this country.

What might hyperinflation look like in practical terms? Here is information on bread prices in Weimar Germany during the hyperinflation period:

https://www.businessinsider.com/hyperinflation-bread-costs-3b-2012-10?r=US&IR=T

In 1914, before World War I, a loaf of bread in Germany cost the equivalent of 13 cents. Two years later it was 19 cents, and by 1919, after the war, that same loaf was 26 cents - doubling the prewar price in five years. Bad, yes -- but not alarming.

But one year later a German loaf of bread cost $1.20. By mid-1922, it was $3.50. Just six months later, a loaf cost $700, and by the spring of 1923 it was $1,200. As of September, it cost $2 million to buy a loaf of bread. One month later, it cost $670 million, and the month after that $3 billion. Within weeks it was $100 billion, at which point the German mark completely collapsed.

More information from elsewhere in the same article:

Some may point to the moderate inflation in the U.S. now - between 2% and 3% -- and reason that hyperinflation in America is a distant possibility, if it could happen at all.

But the seeds of hyperinflation tend to be sown long before the signs of hyperinflation become apparent.

So it could be a while before any evidence of hyperinflation shows up, despite QE1, QE2 and QE3.

"Even when they [Weimar Germany] were actually printing money, literally printing, the inflationary spiral didn't happen instantly," Art Cashin told King World News. "It was delayed a couple of years. But once it started, it could not be taken back."

The key is that no matter how much of a currency exists, if large amounts of it remain out of circulation, inflation - and hyperinflation in particular - can't happen.

"The analogy I use is if the Fed flew over your house and dropped a million dollars in brand new bills, and you were so worried you put them in your garage, that's not inflationary," Cashin said. "It's only inflationary when you lend it or spend it."

For the U.S., the "garage full of money" is the trillions in U.S. Treasuries squirreled away in places like Japan and China, as well as hedge funds and major U.S. and European banks.

Should some sort of financial crisis cause a run on the dollar - a sudden meltdown of the long-simmering Eurozone debt crisis, or if no one blinks in Washington's game of chicken over budget and debt issues - the situation could unravel quickly.

Cashin advises Americans to keep an eye on M2, a measure of the nation's money supply, particularly how much money is in circulation. The government reports this number every week. A sudden spike could signal the start of hyperinflation in America.

And once people decide they'd rather spend their money as fast as possible, the so-called "velocity of money" - how quickly money changes hands - takes off. The faster it goes, the higher the rate of inflation.

It's still early yet in this possible American hyperinflation. I doubt that anyone in 1919 Weimar Germany foresaw the horrific economic implosion of 1923 from the evidence available to the ordinary person at that time. Something similar may be about to occur in this country. The next four years will tell the tale.

 

[Dennis Olson]

No, we won’t. Next question?

 

[Old Gray Mare]

SageRock yes "History Sometimes Rhymes". American hyperinflation rhyme may be similar to Wiemar Germany. It may be closer to the Colonial currency hyperinflation that occurred during the Revolutionary War and under the Articles of Confederation in the late 1770's. That currency like the Federal Reserve Note is only backed by the faith the people have in the government.

Ever hear the expression: "Not worth a Continental."? There are reasons why the founding fathers insisted on hard currency made of precious metals. Thomas Jefferson was much more eloquent when he stated:

“If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around [the banks] will deprive the people of all property until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered. The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people, to whom it properly belongs.”

“I sincerely believe that banking establishments are more dangerous than standing armies, and that the principle of spending money to be paid by posterity under the name of funding is but swindling futurity on a large scale.” – Thomas Jefferson

Maybe President Trump can pull another rabbit out of his hat and preserve the value of the currency, but right now the math's against it. It's difficult to buck hard equations. In the 1700's the government sold off unsettled land to pay their debts. They may be forced to do it again by selling off government lands, rights attached to those lands and other assets.

Considering the wording and provisions in the Frank-Dodd Legislation I think the Government is setting the American Citizens up to take the worst of the financial losses in a hyperinflation or financial collapse scenario.

 

[Dozdoats]

What, the FUSA is too honest, forthright, upstanding and pure to suffer a hyperinflation?

 

[Dennis Olson]

No, the economy is far too massive. It would take a decade for hyperinflation to even begin to any significant extent.

But by all means, if you feel the need...

 

[GammaRat]

There's a reason the Government spends more and more each year.

Compound interest

 

[Dozdoats]

I have tried to arrange things so panic is not necessary. By the time it becomes clear that my analysis and preparations are incorrect, it will be too late to panic.

 

[Troke]

Wage, price controls and rationing (It will be called Allocation of Scarce Resources) The Cultural Left lusts for this power and they will grab it at the slightest hint of inflation. You won't see Wiemar, but you might see a version of Venezuela.

One of the scarce resources will be energy. It will allocated only to socially useful activities. The manufacture of guns and ammo will not be one of those approved activities.

 

[Dozdoats]

Wage, price controls and rationing

And this time, THEY WILL GET IT RIGHT!!! (snark)

 

[imaginative]

I have tried to arrange things so panic is not necessary. By the time it becomes clear that my analysis and preparations are incorrect, it will be too late to panic.

Translation; 'The Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent'

 

[China Connection]

When people freak out and begin panic-buying basic commodities, their ordinary financial assets--equities, bonds, etc.--will collapse: Everyone will be rushing to get cash, so as to turn around and buy commodities.

So immediately after the Treasury markets tank, equities will fall catastrophically, probably within the next few days following the Treasury panic. This collapse in equity prices will bring an equivalent burst in commodity prices--the second leg up, if you will.

This sell-off of assets in pursuit of commodities will be self-reinforcing: There won't be anything to stop it. As it spills over into the everyday economy, regular people will panic and start unloading hard assets--durable goods, cars and trucks, houses--in order to get commodities, principally heating oil, gas and foodstuffs. In other words, real-world assets will not appreciate or even hold their value, when the hyperinflation comes.

This is something hyperinflationist-sceptics never quite seem to grasp: In hyperinflation, asset prices don't skyrocket--they collapse, both nominally and in relation to consumable commodities. A $300,000 house falls to $60,000 or less, or better yet, 50 ounces of silver--because in a hyperinflationist episode, a house is worthless, whereas 50 bits of silver can actually buy you stuff you might need.

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/...es-soar-as-equities-and-the-dollar-collapse-5

 

[Old Gray Mare]

When people freak out and begin panic-buying basic commodities, their ordinary financial assets--equities, bonds, etc.--will collapse: Everyone will be rushing to get cash, so as to turn around and buy commodities....

This is something hyperinflationist-sceptics never quite seem to grasp: In hyperinflation, asset prices don't skyrocket--they collapse, both nominally and in relation to consumable commodities. A $300,000 house falls to $60,000 or less, or better yet, 50 ounces of silver--because in a hyperinflationist episode, a house is worthless, whereas 50 bits of silver can actually buy you stuff you might need.
[/SIZE]
https://www.businessinsider.com.au/...es-soar-as-equities-and-the-dollar-collapse-5

I remember reading of a report of someone (Ferfal or one of his acquaintances?) in Argentina having $400 and choice, buy: a car or an an apartment building. He regretted getting the car. Isn't Socialism wonderful?

 

[Hfcomms]

We are going to see massive inflation as the dollar becomes shunned more and more and we continue to run the printing press. We probably won’t see hyperinflation until the dollar is replaced as the defacto world reserve currency. It’s happening now rather slowly but will pick up speed once the next financial event kicks off. Problem is though that this is global with virtually every nation deep in debt it can’t pay off. Eventually we will hyperinflate as the central bank has two options. Direct default or run the printing presses to oblivion. They usually choose to ramp up the money printing. About the only difference between the US and Venezuela is we have the reserve currency and they don’t.

 

[Old Goat]

Just saw this article on inflation and a "reset" of the monetary system;
6,250 YEAR OLD BULL STILL GOING STRONG
https://goldswitzerland.com/6250-year-old-bull-still-going-strong/

Quote:....Is a total collapse of the financial system next or will we see the globalists taking control of the world? Either way, the world is now at one of the most critical crossroads ever in history...............it is possible that the elite is working hard on their globalist agenda to assume control of the world. If they achieve what they have set out, life on earth will be extremely unpleasant to say the least. Also, there will be nowhere to escape.

A DISORDERLY RESET NEXT

But even the best plans can go badly wrong. The most likely spanner in the works for the elite will be a total collapse of the financial system. This would involve first a final round of money printing creating hyperinflation in most Western countries as well as in emerging markets. But this will have no effect as the world discovers that worthless pieces of paper or computer entries cannot create eternal prosperity.
After a brief hyperinflationary phase, we will see an implosion of the financial system when global debt and liabilities of at least $2 quadrillion currently, disappears into a black hole. As the debt implodes, so will all the bubble assets financed by the debt, including stocks, property and bonds.

So the world is not in the position to take the flood that leads to fortune. Sadly whatever current the world takes will lead to miseries. We are now in a LOSE – LOSE situation and it will be a question of the least painful outcome.

Since the world cannot choose which way to go, we must look at the most likely option. Personally I believe that a collapse of the financial system and the world economy is more likely than globalist control of the world. You could argue that the globalists will orchestrate the collapse and take advantage of the anarchy which will arise to take control. But I think that the coming disorderly reset of the world economy will be impossible to control by any individuals, state or military power.

 

[gerkom]

Probably not. Why...

20+ years ago I was re-evaluating my investment strategies and, to me, it looked like we would be heading towards an inflation/hyper inflation period. I happened to know a retired Hedge Fund manager and bounced my thoughts off of him. He responded with a couple of pages of background info. Starting in the mid 1800's he outlined all of the booms/busts, inflationary periods so on...

Bottom line - in the majority of cases before economies when into inflation they went into deflationary periods. This wiped out all the wealth of the working people. They has no money to invest in hard assets that would appreciate in value. The only people that did were the wealthy.

Will regular inflation still play a part. Yes. Could we have hyper-inflation. Yes. If we did it would probably be because of a lack of confidence in the Government.

 

[TrueNorthNomads]

Crops are failing (due to extreme weather conditions) all over the world right now, and the price of food is going to reflect this. Overall food prices are expected to double, and in some cases triple, by years’ end.

The 2020 harvest will be worse, and food prices are projected to be 5-10 times higher than they are as of this writing.

By the end of 2024, no food will be available at *any* price, and one cannot eat gold or silver etc.

Solar cycles do not negotiate, nor will anything on Earth be able to strengthen the severely weakening magnetosphere, which will shortly cause the grid to ‘fry’ (permanently), bringing all the attendant complications: essentially a world without electricity.

Billions will either starve or freeze to death by the end of 2024, and all government-controlled food reserves will be exhausted by 2028, globally.

Yes, we’ll see hyperinflation, but the problem won’t be an economic one. The world, because of weather extremes, and consequently our inability to grow crops outdoors, will run out of food.

These ‘Ice Age’ conditions are expected to persist for a minimum of 400 years.

History doesn’t ‘rhyme,’ but it does reliably and predictably repeat itself.

Sláinte!


Kathy.
P.S. Russia is currently moving *all* its agricultural enterprises indoors and/or underground. Whatever else Russia may be, currently it’s the only sane place on the planet.

The U.S. (and other countries) have underground growing and living facilities too, but they are reserved for the ‘elite,’ or whatever you want to call them.

 

[Mark D]

Crops are failing (due to extreme weather conditions) all over the world right now, and the price of food is going to reflect this. Overall food prices are expected to double, and in some cases triple, by years’ end.

The 2020 harvest will be worse, and food prices are projected to be 5-10 times higher than they are as of this writing.

By the end of 2024, no food will be available at *any* price, and one cannot eat good or silver etc.

Solar cycles do not negotiate, nor will anything on Earth be able to strengthen the severely weakening magnetosphere, which will shortly cause the grid to ‘fry’ (permanently), bringing all the attendant complications: essentially a world without electricity.

Billions will either starve or freeze to death by the end of 2024, and all government-controlled food reserves will be exhausted by 2028, globally.

Yes, we’ll see hyperinflation, but the problem won’t be an economic one. The world, because of weather extremes, and consequently our inability to grow crops outdoors, will run out of food.

These ‘Ice Age’ conditions are expected to persist for a minimum of 400 years.

History doesn’t ‘rhyme,’ but it does reliably and predictably repeat itself.

Sláinte!


Kathy.
P.S. Russia is currently moving *all* its agricultural enterprises indoors and/or underground. Whatever else Russia may be, currently it’s the only sane place on the planet.

The U.S. (and other countries) have underground growing and living facilities too, but they are reserved for the ‘elite,’ or whatever you want to call them.

THIS... This, is some quality Doomer-porn.










Not that I disagree with the majority of what you posted. =-)

 

[China Connection]

Putin Grows Organic Indoor Farming

By Callie

November 5, 2016


https://gardenculturemagazine.com/beyond-the-garden/putin-grows-organic-indoor-farming/

Agriculture has become of huge interest to Vladimir Putin and business leaders in Russia, particularly interesting is the rise of organic indoor farming. Why? The investment and markets crowd paint a picture that the Russians just don’t have what it takes to succeed. They already tried agriculture, and failed miserably. They don’t have the technology, or up to date equipment. Of course, these people are talking about monocropping, computerized mega tractors, pesticides, etc. But Putin’s farms are growing organically, and it appears they’re in error…
Russia Tops US Wheat Exports 2016

Captured on Russia Beyond the Headlines

This development is met with the conjecture that it’s probably poor quality wheat – only fit for animal feed. The analyst suggests levels of contamination could be too high for it to be of any value, but these are only assumptions. You know what they say – never assume anything. Like assuming that sanctions would change Putin’s point of view. It did, but every road heads in two directions.

Even though it was sanctions and volatile import prices that brought this rebirth of national food production about, Putin is ahead, not behind. While they may indeed need to acquire new tractors and implements, Russia holds lots of water, and a vast expanse of the richest soil on the planet. Since it has not been in constant production under a Big Ag program, that natural nutrient base is still there sans residual pesticides. It’s also 3-4 feet deep, unlike cropland in places like the US Heartland where a good field still has 12 inches of arable soil. This comes from a most interesting article by William Engdahl, strategic risk consultant and author, who reports that the wheat and grains exported from Russia is indeed organic. It’s also very high quality. Meanwhile, he says, Heartland grain quality is below par.

So, it’s not so surprising after all, that Russian farms can outproduce all other countries in export grains. But man can’t live on bread alone. Take a look at what’s under that headline in the photo above: Russia is now the world’s largest exporter of cilantro. And the most efficient way to grow cilantro? Hydroponics in an indoor farming system, which is well… hi-tech. So, saying that Russia lacks the modern equipment or technology with which to pull off Putin’s goal of eradicating his country’s reliance on imported foods appears incorrect.

Let’s look past the posturing of Wall Street and the Big Ag cartels. First of all, we know that you can grow organic crops with the most basic equipment, and without the latest pesticide and seed technology. Secondly, since Putin banned GMO seed and food imports last November, stating that Russia would only grow good, healthy food… Big Seed is naturally a bit miffed over the snub. Banning even GMO ingredients from food with totally transparent labeling isn’t likely making him a favorite with Big Food either. And organic? Well, ‘everyone’ knows you can’t feed the world that way.

But Putin could care less about feeding the world, though exporting the surplus is definitely of economic interest to him. His concern is feeding his people good, healthy food, regardless of what happens elsewhere around the globe. The best way to ensure that is having a nation that has total food self-sufficiency. He wants to achieve that by 2020, because most of the food in Russia is imported. No doubt the climate has a lot to do with that, and oil and weapons exports have been the major economic. But oil is a limited resource, and food is perpetually renewable. And non-GMO organic food is perpetually in demand – somewhere. All GMOs are banned in Russia.

The shining star in Russia’s blossoming organic indoor farming industry may be operating in an existing greenhouse complex built years ago, but it is massive. And they aren’t film-wrapped hoop houses. In fact, the Yuzhny Agricultural Complex has an incredible amount of climate-controlled growing space – over 132 million square feet (almost 356 acres). And while the structures themselves were already in place in the 1990s, if kept in good repair, with some environmental control updating, there’s no reason they cannot produce a lot of food, continually and reliably.

And Yuzhny is churning out a lot of fresh, pesticide-free vegetables for the Moscow market. The huge greenhouse complex uses sustainable practices that include all water supplied from a nearby mountain’s pristine ice melt. Production for 2015 was 43,000 tons of hydroponic tomatoes and cucumbers grown in a system that looks no different than operations in the US and Europe. Yuzhny is in the process of updates and expansions allowing for a 70% increase in annual harvests. Like an echo from Kimbal Musk, the wealthiest businessmen in Russia also see the promise in growing the future of organic food. They’re investing in everything from land to dairy operations, and new greenhouse complexes.

An article in Bloomberg this summer makes much of a Russian hybrid tomato, the T-34 battle tomato. According to the author, it is the star of Yuzhny harvests, but what is most interesting about this is not the name of the tomato coming from the tank that defeated Hitler. There are no images of this particular tomato being grown there. So, if you were this new power grower with an incredible hybrid tomato that gave you heavy production with great flavor that also transports very well, and is a big hit with consumers – wouldn’t it be the crop you’d want to make sure the photographer for a major international publication gets at least a shot or two of?

The T-34 tomato is not in one image in this splashy feature story. The photos show a large slicing tomato throughout the article. But T-34 is a cluster type with fruits like a grape tomato! How odd that a fruit said to be “a symbol of patriotic capitalism” is not proudly displayed. It’s not like it’s something top secret. No one can grow it without the seeds. It’s just a tomato.
The Real T-34 Tomato: Russia's Organic Indoor Farming Star

The Real T-34 Tomato in Russia’s indoor organic farming industry. (Gavrish)

And there’s a lot more going on in indoor farming than is easily found. A new 238 hectare greenhouse complex is underway in the Kaluga region. The video below shows the partially completed phase one block installation by the Dutch greenhouse company, Dalsem, in coordination with the automation expertise of Hoogendoorn. More hi-tech growing on a massive scale. Here they will produce organic tomatoes, cucumbers, herbs, and lettuce using state-of-the art hydroponics and computerized environmental control under the guidance of a Russian manager, and a greenhouse growing consultant from the Netherlands. The complex produces it’s own energy, and the auxiliary crop lighting design includes both overhead and intermediate fixtures.



Local and national government is encouraging small farms, as much as large industrial growing. There’s a keen interest in building local economies, and incentives to build a self-sufficient food system include subsidies and reduced energy rates. In some regions, free land is available for people who want to get into agriculture. And China is investing in this new development too.

It will take a lot of food production to feed the largest country in the world, but they’ve already accomplished quite a bit toward the goal. And while there are those who seem to think this is simply not possible, it is doable, thanks to indoor farming and sustainable practices. The reason agriculture failed before? In addition to the climate, there was no ownership or financial gain. Why excel when just going through the motions was sufficient to stay out of prison? Farming in Russia will be totally different than it was in the past. Now there are reasons to succeed.

More info:

Greenhouse Expansion in Russia (Dalsem)
Trading Kalashnikovs for Tomatoes
Putin Growing Organic Power
Sustainable Pulse


https://gardenculturemagazine.com/beyond-the-garden/putin-grows-organic-indoor-farming/

 

[Old Gray Mare]

During the time of the USSR a lot of Russian families grew and foraged a portion of their own food to survive. That experience is still very much in living memory and I have no doubt home gardens and family dachas are still producing a significant amount of food for the country.

Come a Mauder Minimum the average Russian may have a better skill set and access to tools, resources and extended family support group needed to survive than the average American.

 

[Dennis Olson]

I’m sorry Old Goat, but the source of that article is a storage facility for physical gold and silver. That makes anything they say automatically suspect, because their agenda is to promote precious metals. The only realistic way to do that is to write harrowing essays of world economic doom.

That doesn’t work for me.

 

[Dennis Olson]

Christ, all this thread needs is a prediction of impending EMP attack...

 

[pymaf]

There is a new EMP device that can make corn stop growing..... I swear

 

[Dennis Olson]

 

[Hfcomms]

I’m sorry Old Goat, but the source of that article is a storage facility for physical gold and silver. That makes anything they say automatically suspect, because their agenda is to promote precious metals. The only realistic way to do that is to write harrowing essays of world economic doom.

That doesn’t work for me.

You couldn't be his customer even if you wanted to [and neither do I] as Egon requires a minimum investment of 250K before his company will even look at you. Yes, consider the source and that his business is precious metals and that is a legitimate point. But look at the 'big picture' of the world debt, the U.S. gradually losing it's currency reserve status along with world central banks gold purchases off the record. Looking at everything happening I think you can give what Egon has to say a little more weight.

 

[Dozdoats]

Christ, all this thread needs is a prediction of impending EMP attack...

RUSSIANS! RUSSIANS! RUSSIANS!

 

[Dennis Olson]

HFC, I listen to sources without (or as nearly without as possible) an agenda. The relative truth of something is always spun by agenda-driven sources. Sorry, but a PM company predicting global financial cat-ass-trophy doesn’t mean squat to me.

 

[hiwall]

How about interest rates going up so the US gov cannot pay the interest on the debt. Hint we pay about 1/3 trillion per year interest now.

 

[TrueNorthNomads]

I’m sorry Old Goat, but the source of that article is a storage facility for physical gold and silver. That makes anything they say automatically suspect, because their agenda is to promote precious metals. The only realistic way to do that is to write harrowing essays of world economic doom.

That doesn’t work for me.

‘Economic doom’ only applies to you if you don’t have (or know how to acquire) ‘stuff.’

If your concept of economics is limited to paper and precious metals then you don’t understand economics very well.

Earthquakes, floods, massive lightning storms, giant hailstorms, and volcanic eruptions aside, which you can’t buy your way out of anyway, the two major threats to a fun-filled life are starvation and freezing to death, both of which you (barely) still have time to prep for.

The world is running out of food, so you need to stock up on dry goods and learn to grow your own produce *indoors.* You also need a clean and accessible source of water, and a reliable way to keep yourself warm. Even a novice can do this much inexpensively.

In a world dominated by fiat currency, he who has ‘stuff’ is wealthy.

I don’t know how to access the archives here yet, nor how far back they go, but I do recall an interesting character named Zog, from a couple of light years ago; I learned a great deal about the value of ‘stuff’ from him.

Sláinte!


Kathy.

 

[Ractivist]

TIe hyper inflation to an attack on America of magnitude, and it could and would happen fast.... food is the key component to have in this possible future. And water filters.

 

[SageRock]

Bumping this thread from February 2019. Seems even more timely now, with the current rationing, food scarcity, over-the-top money printing, and massive unemployment, with whole industries shutting down. To add to the complications, there is the pandemic itself, the upcoming election and widespread geopolitical tensions.

 

[jed turtle]

Ultimately, the real “essentials” are water, food, and energy to stay warm (or cool). our circumstances have changed dramatically in the last two months, and everyone now should be able to comprehend that having “essentials” is what should be everyone’s primary agenda. Money is only #1 if it allows you to access water, food, and energy. If it stops “working”, then we will all need to find other ways of obtaining the real “essentials”.

 

[Troke]

Crops are failing (due to extreme weather conditions) all over the world right now, and the price of food is going to reflect this. Overall food prices are expected to double, and in some cases triple, by years’ end.

The 2020 harvest will be worse, and food prices are projected to be 5-10 times higher than they are as of this writing.

By the end of 2024, no food will be available at *any* price, and one cannot eat gold or silver etc.

Solar cycles do not negotiate, nor will anything on Earth be able to strengthen the severely weakening magnetosphere, which will shortly cause the grid to ‘fry’ (permanently), bringing all the attendant complications: essentially a world without electricity.

Billions will either starve or freeze to death by the end of 2024, and all government-controlled food reserves will be exhausted by 2028, globally.

Yes, we’ll see hyperinflation, but the problem won’t be an economic one. The world, because of weather extremes, and consequently our inability to grow crops outdoors, will run out of food.

These ‘Ice Age’ conditions are expected to persist for a minimum of 400 years.

History doesn’t ‘rhyme,’ but it does reliably and predictably repeat itself.

Sláinte!


Kathy.
P.S. Russia is currently moving *all* its agricultural enterprises indoors and/or underground. Whatever else Russia may be, currently it’s the only sane place on the planet.

The U.S. (and other countries) have underground growing and living facilities too, but they are reserved for the ‘elite,’ or whatever you want to call them.

P.S. Russia is currently moving *all* its agricultural enterprises indoors and/or underground. Whatever else Russia may be, currently it’s the only sane place on the planet.

Used to read that Russia had nuke shelters in the mountains for its entire population and one of these days, they were going to shelter and we were going to get nuked. Looks like they have converted them shelters to growing food.

Amazing what modern tech can do.

 

[Dozdoats]

Translation; 'The Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent'

And I learned that lesson before I ever heard the maxim.

 

[Troke]

One thing, check the annual inflation rates for the years 1970-1980. You young folks will be surprised. It ran up to nearly 14% one year and pretty close to that several others. I sold a house during that period. Did pretty well. Bought a house in a depressed area. Did OK there too.

 

[Kathy in FL]

In he mid 70's my parents bought a four bedroom, 2 bath house in a new subdivision for under $27,000. In 1988, barely a decade later, they sold that same house … and the new subdivision was heading south at an exponential rate, for nearly $80,000. The capital gains would have killed them if they hadn't taken that money and sunk it into a ridiculous McMansion in an up and coming neighborhood for $95,000. They sold the property eight years later for $105,000. That same property is now worth well in excess of $220,000, probably a lot in excess of that due to the last two years of home sales in the area and the property appraiser not really keeping up because the place is homesteaded.

"Inflation" is in the eye of the beholder and depends where you start at. Is a house nearly tripling in value in 32 years inflation or appreciation? All depends on how you look at it.

 

[SageRock]

In he mid 70's my parents bought a four bedroom, 2 bath house in a new subdivision for under $27,000. In 1988, barely a decade later, they sold that same house … and the new subdivision was heading south at an exponential rate, for nearly $80,000. The capital gains would have killed them if they hadn't taken that money and sunk it into a ridiculous McMansion in an up and coming neighborhood for $95,000. They sold the property eight years later for $105,000. That same property is now worth well in excess of $220,000, probably a lot in excess of that due to the last two years of home sales in the area and the property appraiser not really keeping up because the place is homesteaded.

"Inflation" is in the eye of the beholder and depends where you start at. Is a house nearly tripling in value in 32 years inflation or appreciation? All depends on how you look at it.

Yes, your parents appeared to benefit from the rampant money-printing of the Federal Reserve, which has inflated stocks, bonds, and real estate. However, the unwinding of this unsustainable fraud is going to be something to behold. Poverty, even extreme poverty, will be the result as we enter the "crack-up boom." Beware of normalcy bias!

Terrible wars are also likely to be an effect of this unwind. The world as we have known it is gone.

 

[hiwall]

One thing, check the annual inflation rates for the years 1970-1980. You young folks will be surprised. It ran up to nearly 14% one year and pretty close to that several others. I sold a house during that period. Did pretty well. Bought a house in a depressed area. Did OK there too.

Our federal government has changed how they figure inflation so the current system is completely different to how it was done in the 70's.

 

[SageRock]

Ultimately, the real “essentials” are water, food, and energy to stay warm (or cool). our circumstances have changed dramatically in the last two months, and everyone now should be able to comprehend that having “essentials” is what should be everyone’s primary agenda. Money is only #1 if it allows you to access water, food, and energy. If it stops “working”, then we will all need to find other ways of obtaining the real “essentials”.

Yes, I very much agree. We have three separate ways to heat our house from three different fuel/energy sources. We also have our own water system, and we raise some of our own food. We work toward having strategic redundancy in critical areas.

 

[Kathy in FL]

You know how many people I've known and met that lost their shirts because they bet on the wrong pony? Seriously, ya'll need to be careful. Know when to get in and when to get out. But always hedge your bet. Better to lose a little than a lot. People make money on a down market by shorting. And the biggest wins on the down is when people lose it thinking the world is coming to an end.

We had a lot of new rich come out of the US Civil War. We had a lot of new rich come out of all of the Depression between the Civil War and the Great Depression. In the 2008/2009 era we had a lot of people lose their shirts but a lot of careful investors really survived to win. The point is to position yourself to win, don't just think about losing. Attitude is at least as important as "things" when it comes to survival.

 

[Cyclonemom]

By way of reminder, inflation or deflation is not just the quantity of FRN's, it is the speed at which they move. The velocity of money.

At the moment, the FRED M1 & M2 monetary velocity charts (if such things are to be believed) are looking deflationary.

This is not to say that deflation will not lead to inflation, but this momentary snapshot does not pose any inflationary fears.