CHAT Other Shortages (non-food) Thread.

Terrwyn

Veteran Member
The latest post on the food thread about Insurance making them buy a new roof is scary. Mine is over 20 years now. Is there something in their policy? This is info that is a good heads up.
And delivery not being available till August on the stove I wanted.

So hope members can keep us in the loop about misc. shortages and extreme price increases.
 
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Terrwyn

Veteran Member
About ten years ago my insurance agent stopped by and flat out told me to get a new roof.

I definitely got the impression that it was not a negotiable issue.
I just discussed this with my DH and we think if this happens to us we will have the roof inspected and if it is ok just not renew the insurance. We have a top quality roof put on by a real roofer. Should last 30 yrs with no problem barring a 100mph storm.. The most likely scenario for losing the house would be an earthquake and reg ins doesnt cover that anyway.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

"Get Ready For Some Serious Sticker Shock Very Soon: This Jump In Inflation Won't Be Transient"

TUESDAY, MAR 23, 2021 - 11:44 AM
By Bloomberg Markets Live reporter and commentator Vincent Cignarella

Semiconductor Costs Could Lead to a Shock This Fall
Consumer confidence is key to how people plan to spend. You can see it in the chart below. And as the chip shortage grows, expect the higher prices to begin showing up in products, which could dampen confidence and eventually stall consumer spending.

The recent surge in chip prices hasn’t affected consumers, and stimulus has kept spending up while confidence has lagged. But that will soon change.

Manufacturers have been eating the increase costs and not passing them on to consumers. With chip prices expected to rise every quarter this year, many companies will be unable to keep swallowing it, especially those with tight margins.

Manufacturers order semiconductors six months in advance. The choke points along the supply chain driving up prices and creating shortages will come to a head in the third quarter, when the next orders to replace inventories are delivered, according to the founder of SouthBay Research Andrew Zatlin.

Automakers will struggle to hold the line. At General Motors, for example, roughly 5% of the cost of goods sold is from semiconductors. The company has 11% margins, and a surge in chip prices will hit profits hard, according to Zatlin. And small business who sell to the likes of Amazon and Walmart with tight retail margins will be forced to raise prices even higher.

The impact should only spread from there. Which is why this jump in inflation won’t be transient as the Fed hopes. Every manufacturer with tight margins will be forced to raise and maintain higher prices. So get ready for some serious sticker shock very soon.
 

Green Co.

EAS Admin
_______________
PVC pipe & fittings, at least in this area, are hard to find and expensive. We've returned from our winter trip, and all know the severe cold snap in south Texas played havoc for many. We had our water shut off, as we always do when we travel, but what water was left in the p-traps and risers to faucets, froze and of course broke the pipes.

PVC pipe has returned but fittings are still scarce, especially the common ones, t's, L's, unions, etc. Hot water pipe, CPVC and fittings, is practically non existent. All HD's and Lowe's in the north Houston area have none.

I keep a tub of spare fittings in the shop and have used what common ones I had. S-I-L is a plumber and has given me most fittings I needed, but 3/4" CPVC pipe he doesn't have. Guess a road trip is in the near future, pipe hunting.

Glad we have the TT parked in the back for showers.
 
Materials will be one thing, what I think will kick most in the pants are the new prices. Bought 2 2x6x14's & 5 4x4x10's, treated, yesterday; $160. Ouch. Based on prices I know of in 'normal' times, this is about a 100%+ price increase.

Now, looking at my so-called raise, 1.75% (actually lucky to have a job, let alone a raise), I don't see how I'm going to keep up with price costs on anything. It will be the pricing that will crash things.

Soon we'll be seeing pricing increase on everything; the latest excuse will be increased fuel costs.

For us, inflation/high-inflation is here. Told the wife, we buy when we can, while we can because you don't know if it's going to be in stock the next time you go to get it or how much the price WILL go up.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3F7k-wF3eAU
6:51 min
Here’s how the computer chip shortage could affect YOUR daily life

•Mar 23, 2021


Glenn Beck


Glenn says it’s time to reprioritize our focus. Because while the mainstream media spends its time reporting on race, alleged discrimination, and President Trump’s ‘dangerous’ legacy, we’re facing a REAL tech crisis: a shortage of computer chips, thanks to a VARIETY of different reasons. Glenn explains WHAT’S happening, and how it could affect YOUR daily life...
 

Lei

Veteran Member
I went to a local feed store yesterday to get several items for my dogs. The store was 2/3 empty ! I've been going there for 25 years and NEVER saw it this low. I asked the cashier what was wrong. " Barges are having problems of course, but producers just are not keeping up with filling orders. "
 

Ractivist

Pride comes before the fall.....Pride month ended.
Yup, a series of large waves are coming.......in every aspect of free society. Like in a water treatment plant.......one could easily call the circulating arm under the crap a fan.....
 

et2

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Steel. I have clients who a struggling big time getting steel from the steel mills. Mostly coiled stock.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment
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Another Round Of Toilet Paper Shortages Looms Amid Global Shipping-Container Crunch

FRIDAY, MAR 26, 2021 - 08:40 PM
Even before the Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal, manufacturers around the world were struggling with the ramifications of a global shipping-container crunch creating bottlenecks in global supply chains. The problem started in the chaos of last spring. A surge in demand for PPE and other products resulted in more demand for shipping containers used to help ferry them to China, as well as African and South American Nations,

To be sure, China is seen as one of the biggest contributors to the container crisis, as snarls and delays at Chinese ports have impacted the availability of containers.


Setting the situation in the Suez aside, one of the world's biggest producers of raw wood pulp, located in South America (far from the Suez), is warning that the container shortage could lead to another shortage of toilet paper on American shelves.

Most Americans probably remember the startling surge in stockpiling of toilet paper and other household essentials. Many were blindsided by it, or forced to be a premium for the stuff.

Families around the country stressed out about the possibility that they might be left high and dry. [COMMENT: Make that high and wet.]

According to Bloomberg, the company, the Brazil-based company, Suzano SA, primarily ships its pulp in cargo vessels known as break bulk. But as demand for ships that can carry ribbed steel containers surges, break bulk rates and capacity are being squeezed.

For readers who aren't familiar with the term, here's a quick explanation of what constitutes "break bulk" (courtesy of LogisticsPlus):
What is Break Bulk Shipping? The term break bulk comes from the older phrase “breaking bulk” which is the extraction of a portion of the cargo on a ship, or the beginning of the unloading process from the ship’s holds. In modern context, break bulk is meant to encompass cargo that is transported in bags, boxes, crates, drums, or barrels – or items of extreme length or size. To be considered break bulk, these goods must be loaded individually, not in intermodal containers nor in bulk as with liquids or grains.
Break bulk was the most common form of cargo for most of history. Since the late 1960s, break bulk cargo has declined while containerized cargo has grown significantly. Moving containers on and off a ship is much more efficient than having to move individual goods. This efficiency allows ships to minimize time in ports and spend more time on the sea. Break bulk cargo is also more susceptible to loss, theft and damage.
[...]
Examples of commonly shipped break bulk cargo commodities include:
  • Bagged or sacked cargo
  • Bailed goods
  • Barrels, drums, and casks
  • Corrugated and wooden boxes or containers
  • Reels and rolls
  • Equipment, vehicles and components
  • Steel girders and structural steel
  • Any long, heavy or over-sized goods
Given consumers' penchant for stockpiling and panic buying, a habit that emerged shortly after the pandemic emerged last spring, CEO Walter Schalka said in an interview that he's worried all of this could snowball into another toilet paper shortage.
Sao Paulo-based Suzano is already concerned about the risk of exporting less in March than the company had expected, and being forced to roll over some shipments into April, Schalka said. With competition increasing for cargo vessels, break-bulk ships are berthing at the company’s terminals less often than usual.
"All the South American players which export through break bulk have faced this risk," he said.
Brazil is the world’s top supplier of pulp, and Suzano accounts for about one-third of global supplies of hardwood pulp, the type used to produce toilet papers. Cargo-market disruption are wreaking havoc on global trade, especially for food and agricultural products, and the crisis in the Suez is already causing tanker rates to spike.

Unsurprisingly, the Bloomberg headline warning about another toilet paper shortage soon became a hot topic on twitter.

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Suzano’s warning is among the first major signs of strain in these shipping markets. If the squeeze drives up freight costs, it could also drive up prices of imported goods, stoking inflation, and creating new headaches for the Federal Reserve...and the market.

If you haven't bought a bidet yet, now might be a good time
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

print-icon

Hooray! The Price Of Toilet Paper Is Going Up Again, Are You Cheering Too
THURSDAY, APR 01, 2021 - 07:40 PM
Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

The Fed is rooting for more inflation. It's coming and the Fed is cheering.


1000 Sheets Will Now Cost More
Huggies maker Kimberly-Clark announced price hikes, joining General Mills, Hormel and others in passing along added costs.

The Fed is undoubtedly pleased that Higher Commodity Costs are Now Passed on to Shoppers.
Makers of everything from diapers to cereal are starting to feel the strain of higher commodity prices, and some are passing the added cost along to consumers.
Kimberly-Clark Corp. (KMB) said Wednesday it plans to raise selling prices across much of its North America consumer-products business to help counter rising raw-material costs.
Kimberly-Clark said its increases, which will be implemented almost entirely through changes in list prices, are needed to help offset significant commodity cost inflation.
Price Hikes
  • The maker of Huggies diapers and Scott paper products said the percentage increases would be in the mid- to high-single digits and take effect in late June. They will apply to the company’s baby- and child-care, adult-care and Scott bathroom-tissue businesses.
  • Cheerios maker General Mills Inc. (GIS) said it will raise prices to partly offset higher freight and manufacturing costs, in addition to rising commodity prices. “Our competitors and retailers are facing the same thing we are,” General Mills Chief Executive Jeff Harmening said.
  • Hormel Foods Corp. (HRL)said in February it raised prices of its turkey products, such as Jennie-O ground turkey, to counter sharply higher grain costs. If the rally in the commodity markets were to continue, the company would likely pass along further increases, Chief Executive Jim Snee said. Hormel also raised prices of its Skippy peanut butter.
  • J.M. Smucker Co. (SJM) said it recently raised prices for its Jif peanut butter and that it might do the same with pet snacks because of higher shipping costs and other inflationary pressure. Smucker Chief Executive Mark Smucker said retailers are passing increases along to consumers. “We only raise prices when costs are meaningfully higher, and we partner with the retailers to make sure it’s justified and that we move together,” he said.
Hooray! Hooray! Hooray!
In addition to toilet paper, price hikes are slated for Huggies, Cheerios, peanut butter, and turkey.

No doubt, that's just a start.

The Fed is very pleased that your dollar buys less than a month ago. Are you cheering too?

Easy Money Quote of the Day: Fed "Won't Take the Punch Bowl Away"
On March 25, I noted the Easy Money Quote of the Day: Fed "Won't Take the Punch Bowl Away"

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly won the gold medal for easy money statements. She said the central bank would show at least “a healthy dose” of patience. ”We are not going to take this punch bowl away,” said Daly.
She wants higher inflation as do four other Fed presidents I cited.

Spotlight on the Fed
Fed Chair Jerome Powell wants to let inflation run hot to make for alleged lack of inflation in the past.

In short, he is unhappy to have failed at destroying the purchasing power of your dollar fast enough.

He would not recognize inflation if it jumped off the table and spit grapefruit juice in his eyes.

As discussed previously, Inflation is Poised to Soar, 3% by June is "Almost Certain"

Historical Perspective on CPI Deflations
A BIS study of deflations shows the Fed's fear of deflation is foolish.
"Deflation may actually boost output. Lower prices increase real incomes and wealth. And they may also make export goods more competitive," concluded the study.
For discussion, please see Historical Perspective on CPI Deflations: How Damaging are They?

Japan has tried what the Fed is doing now for over a decade, with no results.
Yet, Powell hell bent on producing more than 2% inflation until the strategy "works".

It already has, using the word "works" rather loosely.

Home Prices Rise at Fastest Pace in 15 Years



Inflation is Rampant and Obvious
Yesterday I commented Hello Fed, Inflation is Rampant and Obvious, Why Can't You See It?

The national level average year-over-year increase in home prices is 11.2%.
Click on the above link for a series of 5 charts that explain what's happening.

What Would I Do?
For the answer, please see Reader Question: What Would I do Differently Than the Fed?
 

paul bunyan

Frostbite Falls, Minnesota
So WHY is there a shortage? Raw materials? Production shut down? What is the reason for it?

for you my Lady:

 

marsh

On TB every waking moment
TP is pulp based out of Brazil. Supposed to be some issue there. There was that delay in the Suez Canal affecting shipping. Also, I read a post somewhere that shipping containers were going back to China empty - which could be an indication of loss of reserve currency status or economic warfare.

Asia is seeing another virus uptake. Steel, micro-chips, resin (PVC) and lumber products are not being produced at quantities needed. I guess that is all due to dependence upon export from other countries either of raw materials or fabricated items (which Biden's new tax on industry will make worse.) Also, the Green New Deal aspects will continue to shut down food production, mining/oil/energy, timber etc with crushing environmental and social justice regulations. We are already seeing that with the restoration of Delta Smelt cut offs of irrigation water to Central Valley farms in Calif.

Jim Willie (Golden Jackass) predicted that when the loss of reserve status came and no one wanted our dollars, we would have to rely upon Chinese investment to rebuild our domestic industrial capacity. Trump tried to prepare for it by rebuilding independence, but Biden is restoring the pre-ordained disaster. We are just seeing the opening rounds.
 

seraphima

Veteran Member
Locally, microwaves are unobtainable. Toasters are very hard to find. While we were remodeling my end of the house, every day I overheard conversations from all sorts of contractors saying that Spenard's was out of xxx, of course as i went to pick up yet another item for the plumber/sheetrocker/etc.
 

agmfan3

Veteran Member
I'm not sure where the food thread went, but here is the latest on pork and beef, I work for a butcher shop. Some of the problem is restaurants are opening with higher capacity, fuel prices are going up and the packing houses are still only running at 50%.
This is exactly what going on in the meat packing Industry today.
#1 platter sliced Bacon reached a new all time high price with all pork items taking a 30 to 40¢ LB. increase across the board.
#2 In the beef market middle meat (Rib Eye loins, T-Bone loins, strip loins, & beef tenderloin) have all taken a drastic increase. Just to give you a idea Rib Eye Loins next week will cost us $3.25 more per pound than they did 3 weeks ago. All ground beef products are up 30 to 50¢ a pound across-the-board.
 
I'm not sure where the food thread went, but here is the latest on pork and beef, I work for a butcher shop. Some of the problem is restaurants are opening with higher capacity, fuel prices are going up and the packing houses are still only running at 50%.
This is exactly what going on in the meat packing Industry today.
#1 platter sliced Bacon reached a new all time high price with all pork items taking a 30 to 40¢ LB. increase across the board.
#2 In the beef market middle meat (Rib Eye loins, T-Bone loins, strip loins, & beef tenderloin) have all taken a drastic increase. Just to give you a idea Rib Eye Loins next week will cost us $3.25 more per pound than they did 3 weeks ago. All ground beef products are up 30 to 50¢ a pound across-the-board.
 

nomifyle

Has No Life - Lives on TB
The Jackery 240 solar generator went down from $249 to $169 right now in a lightening deal. I like mine for charging small things. If I was being lose with my money I'd buy another, but I'm being careful how I'm spending.

God is good all the time

Judy
 

Catnip

Veteran Member
I went to a local feed store yesterday to get several items for my dogs. The store was 2/3 empty ! I've been going there for 25 years and NEVER saw it this low. I asked the cashier what was wrong. " Barges are having problems of course, but producers just are not keeping up with filling orders. "
Yup. I saw many totally bare shelves, from one end to the other, in Walmart last weekend in N. MN. Also noticing bare areas in local stores.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

Chinese Aluminum Price Soar To 11-Year Highs As Decarbonization Efforts Slash Energy To Smelters

FRIDAY, APR 16, 2021 - 09:20 PM
Chinese aluminum prices moved higher Friday, hitting an 11-year high, exchange data showed, as Beijing embarks on the road to decarbonization, a move that has reduced energy to the power-hungry smelting hub located in Inner Mongolia, even as new capacity came on online, according to Mining.com.

The benchmark price for aluminum on the Shanghai Futures Exchange stood at 18,025 yuan ($2,764) per metric ton, an 11-year high.



In terms of dollars, SHFE aluminum futures printed at 2,800 per metric ton, a critical resistance level dating back more than a decade ago.


Analysts believe the price surge in aluminum is due to Bejing's curb on aluminum output in the Xinjiang Uyghur autonomous region to reduce carbon dioxide emissions.

According to Mining.com,
Primary aluminum output in the world's top producer was up 8.5% year-on-year at 3.28 million tonnes in March, the National Bureau of Statistics said, beating the previous monthly high of 3.27 million tonnes reached in December 2020.
High prices are incentivizing production, with Shanghai aluminum mostly holding above 17,000 yuan a tonne in March.
Prices hit an 11-year high of 18,460 yuan on Friday.

In July, aluminum for delivery was down 0.35% on Friday morning after futures touched $2.355 a tonne on the Comex market in New York.
Meanwhile, the output of a group of 10 nonferrous metals – including copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, and nickel – rose 12.7% year-on-year in March to 5.48 million tonnes, the bureau said.

However, daily aluminum output eased in March from the previous two months, Reuters calculations based on official data showed, dropping to around 105,800 tonnes per day versus 109,300 tonnes per day for January/February, a record.

"March's record output is due to a 500,000 tonne per year ramp-up of new capacity in the first quarter, offsetting the Inner Mongolia curbs," CRU analyst Wan Ling told Reuters.

"Some idle capacity has restarted or is going to restart, April production should be still a bit higher compared with March," Wan said.
"Data do indicate that China still has a considerable appetite for commodities," Commerzbank analyst Daniel Briesemann said in a note.

Consultancy AZ China estimates 279,000 tonnes of annual aluminum capacity across seven smelters were shut due to the energy curbs, exceeding its estimate of 130,000 tonnes of new capacity launched in China last month, all in Yunnan.
China's two-decade run as an aluminum juggernaut is running out of road. Decarbonization initiatives have reduced power to smelters as some are having trouble keeping up with demand as the country's manufacturing sector experiences a growth spurt.

Domestic supply-chain stress are certainly developing in China as green policies start to kick in.

... and the one question we have is how will base metals react if China's credit impulse begins to slip?


A slowdown in credit creation would have dire consequences for commodity prices that have experienced a rip roar rally for nearly a year since the pandemic began following global central banks and countries pumping trillions of dollars into the respective economies.
 

summerthyme

Administrator
_______________
Bottles and caps! My 8 ounce amber glass bottles (over 80% of my sales are in those) have been backordered for weeks. A couple cases of 4 ounce showed up today, finally. But caps have tripled in price in 4 months... and a particular ingredient in my Wound Heal Gel also tripled in price since last fall. I've been holding the line on prices, but I may not be able to much longer. Fortunately, the jojoba oil inexplicably went DOWN in price... 20 bucks on 5 gallon pails, but I'll take it. However, delivery- which has been a 2-3 day process, is now 3 weeks out. It sure looks like the supply chain is breaking down.

Summerthyme
 
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marsh

On TB every waking moment
I noted that this is a "decarbonization effort." Climate change appears to be setting in motion that much lower standard of living the Green New Deal heralded. You just will not be able to buy appliances etc. any more. Joe pushes the manufacturing back to China and they choke down the source.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

Chlorine Prices Explode Just In Time For Peak Pool Season

FRIDAY, APR 30, 2021 - 06:40 PM
Here's another example of the butterfly effect.

By now everyone knows that a March fire at a plant owned by Japanese chipmaker Renesas was the straw that broke the semiconductor camel's back, and what were already stretched chip supply chains collapsed, forcing countless companies - from carmarkers to defense contractors - to put production on halt indefinitely until chip inventories had restocked.

But did you know that a fire at a factor last summer could make operating a swimming pool this year prohibitively expensive?

Late last summer, a massive fire broke out at a chemical plant in Lake Charles, LA after Hurricane Laura passed overhead. The chemical blaze was extinguished after three days, and was quickly forgotten... until this week, when Goldman reported that the August 2020 fire had sparked industry-wide chlorine shortages and price inflation.

In recent weeks this story has received more widespread attention as media outlets nationwide have begun covering the severity of the problem, highlighting the possibility of a chlorine shortage during peak pool season in the summer months. Back in March, Goldman surveyed 11 regional pool retailers who at the time unanimously indicated that chlorine prices were on the rise, with most expressing uncertainty with regard to whether or not they will have enough chlorine to sell for the upcoming pool season.

In retrospect, the answer was a resounding no: according to IHS Markit, chlorine prices were up ~37% YoY in March 2021, with prices expected to surge 58% from June to August this year.



To address the fallout, Goldman surveyed 26 pool supply shops across the country, with most respondents located in pool-centric markets like TX, CA, NV, NM, and AZ. Of the 26 pool shops the bank spoke to, 15 expressed uncertainty or doubt when asked about whether they will have enough chlorine for pool season.

As if that wasn't enough, adding to the pressure created by the chlorine shortage, respondents called out a plastic bucket shortage, driven by COVID-related manufacturing slowdowns, which has made procuring certain volume sizes of chlorine more difficult for retailers, and has led suppliers to deliver chlorine in either bags or in buckets with different colored lids, according to respondents.

One respondent noted that suppliers are slowing production of smaller-sized buckets of chlorine tabs (8-lb, 12-lb), with the focus shifting to larger 50-lb buckets. With customers buying up the smaller-sized buckets of chlorine, this particular store plans to only have 50-lb buckets left to sell within the next week, which are slightly more profitable, according to the respondent.

When asked about whether the cost and availability of chlorine have improved in the last month or so, several respondents noted that while the supply of chlorine has improved somewhat, cost has not.

Commentary from the industry's main pool equipment supplier Pool Corp. on its recent earnings day underscores the severity of the chlorine shortage.

"I mean overall, I would tell you the price on dichlor and trichlor [chlorine tablets], which is the product that was impacted by the shortage, they're up about 60%. So if you think about how that's going to shake out for the balance of the year, it will probably remain at elevated level because I believe that the industry is going to be short for the season," Pool Corp CFO Mark Joslin told analysts on an April 22 earnings call.

The shortage will likely lead to pool owners to get creative on pool sanitization, Joslin said quoted by Yahoo Finance.

"Now that simply means that people are going to move their method of sanitization to another product, either a granular product or a liquid product. But there's no shortage of ways to sanitize the pool. It just simply means at a certain point people will shift. We've also seen certain parts of the country accelerating the use of salt as a method of sanitization too," Joslin added.
 

WalknTrot

Veteran Member
Chainsaws. Local shop has over 200 on order and no idea when they are coming. He wont even take a deposit for one now as he cant estimate when the order would be filled.
Haha! They are falling off an overloaded container ship out in the middle of the Pacific.
 

Macgyver

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Other than some tp that comes from canada, none is imported so I'm calling bull shat on that one.
 
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