WAR North Korea Successfully Tests Road Mobile Musudan IRBM (22 June 2016)

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Dave Schmerler ‏@DaveSchmerler 31m31 minutes ago

New Images Showing the #Musudan test (1/2) @ArmsControlWonk @mhanham @Joshua_Pollack @GeorgeWHerbertpic.twitter.com/8qRyq7SbWX

https://twitter.com/DaveSchmerler/status/745767520825548801/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc^tfw

Cll-3T2VYAA1JCe.jpg

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cll-3T2VYAA1JCe.jpg

1

https://twitter.com/DaveSchmerler/status/745767520825548801/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc^tfw
4:55 PM - 22 Jun 2016 · Details
8 retweets 0 likes

ClkIw54WIAAxiZ5.jpg:large

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ClkIw54WIAAxiZ5.jpg:large

I'm having trouble linking/posting the images of the Musudan on it's TEL and launching from it. HC

Prior thread...

North Korea 'fires submarine-launched ballistic missile' - 23 April 2016
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...aunched-ballistic-missile-23-April-2016/page4
 

AlfaMan

Has No Life - Lives on TB
They did it???? The tests today were actually successful?
Heard on the news this AM they launched two more; didn't say whether they were successful or not.
Uh oh......
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
They did it???? The tests today were actually successful?
Heard on the news this AM they launched two more; didn't say whether they were successful or not.
Uh oh......

Yeah. Considering the ramifications I figured it was time for a new thread.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/20...ergency-meeting-north-korea-missile-launches/

National

U.N. Security Council to convene emergency meeting over North Korea missile launches

Kyodo
Jun 23, 2016
Article history

NEW YORK – The U.N. Security Council is slated to hold an emergency meeting on Wednesday afternoon over North Korea’s latest missile launches following a request made by the United States and Japan, diplomats said.

“Confronted with the threat of proliferation, we consider that weakness is not an option and based on all this we favor a quick and firm reaction of the Security Council,” said Francois Delattre, U.N. ambassador of France, the rotating council president of the month.

Speaking to reporters, he expected that the 15-member council would agree to a press statement that he hopes would be issued as soon as possible, as has been the pattern after most of North Korea’s recent medium-range firings.

The latest launches occurred on Wednesday morning Japan time, with one of the Musudan missiles flying about 400 km and reaching an altitude of more than 1,000 km, prompting global concerns amid what appears to be technological advances.

The Musudan has a potential range of between 2,500-4,000 km, which could reach any target in Japan and South Korea, as well as U.S. military bases on the Pacific island of Guam.

The first missile that was launched reportedly flew only about 150 km before breaking up midair, according to South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff. This was also the case for four previous Musudan missiles that have been tested since April.

A diplomat told Kyodo News that concern over the Musudan that traveled further was what caused the meeting to be called.
 

AlfaMan

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Oh sh*t...........
The RV looks the size of an Avco Mk 5 !
Thanks for pointing out the verniers-they look odd frankly. Maybe an RP-1/LOX mix? The pumps are working good though-look at the shock cones coming through in the exhaust. Wonder what the INS unit looks like in this thing-if it has one. Wondering-perhaps command guidance rather than INS? Hence the verniers in the first place? An INS would keep the unit stable and would control the main engines' gimballing to maintain control. Verniers almost scream command guidance /low tech solution to me.
You can definitely see the UMDH/nitrogen tetroxide hypergolic propellants-that's not orange backlighting, that's burning nitrogen tetroxide. And I hope nobody was in the cab of that transporter!
Here we go.....

ClmEdf1UYAEz8-E.jpg

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ClmEdf1UYAEz8-E.jpg

Note the RV on the top of the missile....
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Oh sh*t...........
The RV looks the size of an Avco Mk 5 !
Thanks for pointing out the verniers-they look odd frankly. Maybe an RP-1/LOX mix? The pumps are working good though-look at the shock cones coming through in the exhaust. Wonder what the INS unit looks like in this thing-if it has one. Wondering-perhaps command guidance rather than INS? Hence the verniers in the first place? An INS would keep the unit stable and would control the main engines' gimballing to maintain control. Verniers almost scream command guidance /low tech solution to me.
You can definitely see the UMDH/nitrogen tetroxide hypergolic propellants-that's not orange backlighting, that's burning nitrogen tetroxide. And I hope nobody was in the cab of that transporter!

Thanks but I can't take credit for pointing out the verniers, the twitterer where I got this did that....Dave Schmerler, https://twitter.com/DaveSchmerler

ETA 1: Recall that the NORKs reportedly supplied these to the Iranians as well.....

ETA 2: IIRC the older Soviet/Russian Topol ICBM had the verniers as well....
 
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AlfaMan

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Thanks-still very good catch on the pic and the info.
Do you notice the base of the missile? Almost looks like a platform around the bottom of it.
If that's what it is; it is possible the prior breakups were due to max Q buffeting/harmonics around the platform-either that or POGO effect.
In any event, if they have these problems solved then we better crank up the SAMs because once Kim has these functional it's only a matter of time before he uses them for real.

Thanks but I can't take credit for pointing out the verniers, the twitterer where I got this did that....Dave Schmerler, https://twitter.com/DaveSchmerler
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Thanks-still very good catch on the pic and the info.
Do you notice the base of the missile? Almost looks like a platform around the bottom of it.
If that's what it is; it is possible the prior breakups were due to max Q buffeting/harmonics around the platform-either that or POGO effect.
In any event, if they have these problems solved then we better crank up the SAMs because once Kim has these functional it's only a matter of time before he uses them for real.

Well they did deploy a THAAD battery to Guam....

ETA: IIRC the older Soviet/Russian Topol ICBM had the verniers as well....
 

AlfaMan

Has No Life - Lives on TB
I'd be real curious to see where our Ageis cruisers are right now. I'd bet they're all taking in Asian sights right now......
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
I'd be real curious to see where our Ageis cruisers are right now. I'd bet they're all taking in Asian sights right now......

Remember the big exercises (Malabar 2016) off of Philippines with the Japanese and the Indian navies that are going on right now including 2 USN carrier battle groups?....
 
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AlfaMan

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Your'e right. They ARE taking in Asian sights right now.
Can't you just see the potential for this little ant hill to be kicked over? Ugh-a nuclear ant hill at that.

Remember the big exercises (Malabar 2016) off of Philippines with the Japanese and the Indian navies that are going on right now including 2 USN carrier battle groups?....
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Your'e right. They ARE taking in Asian sights right now.
Can't you just see the potential for this little ant hill to be kicked over? Ugh-a nuclear ant hill at that.

Yeah. Right now I'm looking at my stock of brandy and single malt thinking about it and how the current bunch in DC are going to "handle it".

premium-brandy.jpg

http://www.ejbrandy.com/resources/img/content/side-imgs/premium-brandy.jpg

auchentoshan-1998-festival-bottling.jpg

http://www.whiskyintelligence.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/07/auchentoshan-1998-festival-bottling.jpg

Yeah I know my choice in scotch is considered by some aficionados as a "breakfast drink"!
 

AlfaMan

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Yes-storable propellants.
The propellants for the Musadan missile are UDMH (unsymmetrical dimethyl hydrazine) as the fuel, and nitrogen tetroxide as the oxidizer (oxygen providing component). The fuels are called "hypergolic fuels", which means that the fuels ignite on contact with each other. The orange clouds of exhaust are clouds of burned nitrogen tetroxide (and quite toxic as well).
These fuels can stay in the missile for quite a while, although both are toxic and slightly corrosive. This makes that missile easier and much quicker to launch than a liquid fuelled rocket-the fuel's there already-no need to pump fuels into it (which on an Atlas ICBM took around 35-40 minutes. Which means the missile is a sitting duck while fuelling). With this Musadan, just turn on the turbopumps let the two fuels come in contact and whoosh it's off into the great wild yonder.
I mentioned the possibility of the verniers using an RP-1/LOX mix-RP-1 is basically a high test kerosene (probably a 50-55 cetane rating or better) and Liquid Oxygen.
Below is a link to a really good film from NASA regarding different types of rocket fuels and how to handle them.


so that's a liquid fueled rocket?
 

Lilbitsnana

On TB every waking moment
They did it???? The tests today were actually successful?
Heard on the news this AM they launched two more; didn't say whether they were successful or not.
Uh oh......

The news I heard early this AM said they were not successful. :(

Well, we all knew it was just a matter of time anyway. tic toc
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
https://twitter.com/mhanham/status/745786637586673664/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc^tfw

Melissa Hanham
þ@mhanham
This fuel should worry us. #DPRK #Musudan

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https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ClmQ_MiVYAAM4rt.jpg

6:12 PM - 22 Jun 2016
7 retweets 6 likes

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Ankit Panda þ@nktpnd · 18m18 minutes ago

@mhanham Liquid fuel, but why else?

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Melissa Hanham þ@mhanham · 15m15 minutes ago

@nktpnd much more energetic. Possibly NTO/UDMH.



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Ankit Panda þ@nktpnd · 12m12 minutes ago

@mhanham Piloting it with the Hwasong-10 before KN-08/14 use perhaps?



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Oslowe Knownas þ@Osloweknownas · 17m17 minutes ago

.@mhanham Haven't been following closely. Assume then it's a solid fuel rocket for quick launch.

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Melissa Hanham þ@mhanham · 16m16 minutes ago

@Osloweknownas this is liquid. Possibly NTO/UDMH. Much more energetic.

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Oslowe Knownas þ@Osloweknownas · 3m3 minutes ago

@mhanham I guess a quick retaliatory response is not really needed by a tiny country like that. No one would be around to order it anyway.

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[Omitted] Gecko þ@GeckoVox · 17m17 minutes ago

@mhanham Is that from yesterday's launch?
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Northerntomcat þ@Northerntomcat · 11s11 seconds ago

@mhanham Too what end?We know how they got there,worry is an understatement.
 

AlfaMan

Has No Life - Lives on TB
The bunch in DC are all sitting in time out on the house floor :)

I like your choice in liquors-I rarely drink but when I do it's johnny walker red and coke zero. So your choices are very good!

Yeah. Right now I'm looking at my stock of brandy and single malt thinking about it and how the current bunch in DC are going to "handle it".

premium-brandy.jpg

http://www.ejbrandy.com/resources/img/content/side-imgs/premium-brandy.jpg



auchentoshan-1998-festival-bottling.jpg

http://www.whiskyintelligence.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/07/auchentoshan-1998-festival-bottling.jpg

Yeah I know my choice in scotch is considered by some aficionados as a "breakfast drink"!
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
https://twitter.com/mhanham/status/745781685803843584/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc^tfw

Melissa Hanham
þ@mhanham
I mean look at this thing! #DPRK #Musudan

ClmMe9CVAAAE68B.jpg

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ClmMe9CVAAAE68B.jpg

ClmMe_3UsAA9iP7.jpg

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ClmMe_3UsAA9iP7.jpg

Retweets
2

umnyoung Vincent Lee

5:53 PM - 22 Jun 2016


2 retweets 0 likes

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Nathan J Hunt þ@ISNJH · 46m46 minutes ago

@mhanham similar ring on base of musudan like seen around engine on test stand.

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Nathan J Hunt þ@ISNJH · 46m46 minutes ago

@mhanham also besides the main flames I see what look like 4 smaller

0 retweets 0 likes
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
The bunch in DC are all sitting in time out on the house floor :)

I like your choice in liquors-I rarely drink but when I do it's johnny walker red and coke zero. So your choices are very good!

Thanks, my grandfather once told me to drink the best I could afford because one day the doctor would eventually say "no more".
 

Countrymouse

Country exile in the city
Well.....................okey dokey then.



So...speculation on what the little man with the big missile will do next?
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
With regards to my comment about the older Topol...I meant the grid fins...My bad.:shr:

GeorgeWilliamHerbert ý@GeorgeWHerbert
@ArmsControlWonk We did not see grid fins before on parade units. Plausible that longer airframe was not controllable through maxQ w/o help
 

Ben Sunday

Deceased
Had the original Yonhap report early this AM in the Shelter. No success assumed at the time.

Now we have these later reports and the smiles and rocket pics seem to indicate a more positive outcome than we were first told.

For the halibut, I think I will restock my supply of bourbon and maybe a nip or two of Johnny Red Thursday afternoon.

A man needs something to look forward to. :D
 

Countrymouse

Country exile in the city
I'm guessing a high altitude nuclear test using either this system or a NoDong.

And then............


"If you don't ((((((((((fill in the blank)))))))))))))))), you're gonna get it!"---???



(thank you SO much, Jimmy Carter the Clueless.......)
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
And then............


"If you don't ((((((((((fill in the blank)))))))))))))))), you're gonna get it!"---???



(thank you SO much, Jimmy Carter the Clueless.......)

Consider this....This is a single stage missile system. What if this is the actual first stage for the KN-08/KN-11 road mobile ICBM the NORKs were showing off a couple of months ago along with the RV and the "disco ball"?

That really changes things in a very big way....
 

Countrymouse

Country exile in the city
Consider this....This is a single stage missile system. What if this is the actual first stage for the KN-08/KN-11 road mobile ICBM the NORKs were showing off a couple of months ago along with the RV and the "disco ball"?

That really changes things in a very big way....


Wonder what the Defcon Warning System will be set at, now......
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Wonder what the Defcon Warning System will be set at, now......

Probably no change. If in fact the earlier reports of the change were correct, they're about all you would do unless you're going to "use" those two CVNs while they're in theater.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/nation/2016/06/485_207684.html

Posted : 2016-06-23 09:39
Updated : 2016-06-23 09:39

S. Korea set to hold top commanders' meeting over N. Korea missile

À½¼ºµè±â

South Korea is set to convene a meeting of top commanders on Thursday to check the country's readiness to counter North Korea's latest missile provocations, Seoul's defense ministry said.

Defense Minister Han Min-koo plans to preside over the meeting to be attended by about 150 top-ranked military commanders, to discuss the North's test-firing of two mid-range ballistic missiles and the South Korean military's countermeasures, it said.

On Wednesday, North Korea fired off what is believed to be two Musudan intermediate-range missiles from the east coast city of Wonsan, making its fifth and sixth launches since April.

Of the two missiles launched, the second one reached an altitude of about 1,000 kilometers and flew some 400 km. Pyongyang claimed Thursday the successful test-firing of what it called the Hwasong-10 missile.

The military commanders plan to strongly condemn the North's move as it clearly violated relevant U.N. Security Council resolutions and poses a grave threat to peace and security on the divided peninsula, according to the ministry.

A ministry official said that Han is expected to call for the military to raise its guard against North Korea and to sternly respond to additional provocations by the North.

The Musudan missile, with an estimated range of some 3,000 to 4,000 kilometers, could theoretically fly as far as the U.S. territory of Guam.

The North's missile tests raise concerns about advances made in the North's nuclear and missile program as Pyongyang is seeking to develop a nuclear-tipped intercontinental ballistic missile capable of hitting targets in the U.S. mainland.

South Korea has been speeding up the development of the indigenous Korea Air and Missile Defense (KAMD) aimed at better countering North Korea's missile threat. A pre-emptive missile destruction system, the so-called Kill Chain, is also under development to detect and strike North Korea's missile and nuclear facilities. (Yonhap)


N. Korea claims successful launch of mid-range ballistic missile
 

minkykat

Komplainy Kat
So the "little horn" finally has something to raise his fat cheeks in a smile about.

Interesting to me how he has his hand in the coat ala Napoleon ala a good mason.
 

Lilbitsnana

On TB every waking moment
Gee, I wonder which crazy world leader will push the button first?

Also, interesting timing on the flight to Beijing. Summoned?


ぎちょ ‏@donko443 1h1 hour ago

Flight JS251 from Pyongyang to Beijing
http://fr24.com/KOR251/a1c4c78
#Tu204 #airkoryo #平壌 #DPRK




North Korea News ‏@140DPRK 21m21 minutes ago

North Korea leader says missile gives ability to attack US in Pacific - Reuters http://bit.ly/28QTRTO #northkorea #dprk


Paula Hancocks Verified account ‏@PHancocksCNN 2m2 minutes ago

#NorthKorea envoy in Beijing says she is happy with missile launch so they can now deal whatever nuclear war US forces #DPRK




posted for fair use and discussion
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missile-kim-idUSKCN0Z82PB

Wed Jun 22, 2016 10:43pm EDT
Related: World, United Nations, North Korea, Aerospace & Defense
North Korea leader says missile gives ability to attack U.S. in Pacific
SEOUL | By Jack Kim

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un watches the ballistic rocket launch drill of the Strategic Force of the Korean People's Army (KPA) at an unknown location, in this undated file photo released by North Korea's Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) in Pyongyang on March 11, 2016....
Reuters/File Photo
http://www.reuters.com/news/picture...s-ab?articleId=USKCN0Z82PB&slideId=1142453141


North Korea leader Kim Jong Un said after supervising the test launch of a "medium long-range strategic ballistic missile" that the country now has the capability to attack U.S. interests in the Pacific, official media reported on Thursday.


South Korean and U.S. military officials have said the North launched what appeared to be two intermediate-range missiles dubbed Musudan on Wednesday. The first of the two was considered a failure.

The second reached a high altitude in the direction of Japan before plunging into the sea about 400 km (250 miles) away, they said.

The test-fire was successful without putting the security of neighboring countries at risk, the North's KCNA news agency said, referring to the missile as a "Hwasong-10." Hwasong is Korean for Mars.

"We have the sure capability to attack in an overall and practical way the Americans in the Pacific operation theater," KCNA quoted Kim as saying.


The missile, which is fired from mobile launchers, has a design range of more than 3,000 km (1,860 miles), meaning all of Japan and the U.S. territory of Guam are potentially within reach.


Related Coverage

Pentagon chief says North Korea test shows need for better defenses
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-n...USKCN0Z82SF?mod=related&channelName=Aerospace


South Korea and the United States condemned the launch as an unacceptable violation of U.N. Security Council resolutions.

Japan's Defence Minister Gen Nakatani said the launch was an indication that North Korea's threat to Japan was intensifying.


The United Nations Security Council, which in March imposed new sanctions on the North following its fourth nuclear test in January and a long-range rocket launch in February, met at the request of the United States and Japan.

Alexis Lamek, Deputy U.N. Ambassador of France, which holds the Security Council presidency for June, said after the meeting all 15 members believed the launches were in violation of UN resolutions.

“All expressed a strong concern as well as their opposition (to) these launches,” Lamek told reporters. He said he hoped a statement condemning the move could be agreed on soon.

U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, speaking before the Security Council meeting, described North Korea's latest ballistic missile launches as a "brazen and irresponsible act".

U.S. Defense Secretary Ash Carter said he did not know if the test was a success but acknowledged one of the two missiles "flew for a long time".

North Korea had failed in at least five previous attempts to launch the intermediate-range missiles. South Korea said Washington and Seoul were analyzing whether the sixth missile launch was successful.

Japan and South Korea said the missile flew at a height of 1,000 km (620 miles) over a distance of 400 km (250 miles) off its east coast. Experts said it appeared North Korea had deliberately raised the angle of the launch to avoid hitting any territory of Japan.

North Korea is believed to have up to 30 Musudan missiles, according to South Korean media, which officials said were first deployed around 2007, although the North had never attempted to test-fire them until this year.

(Additional reporting by Ju-min Park in Seoul, Michelle Nichols at the United Nations and David Brunnstrom and Idrees Ali in Washington; Editing by Toni Reinhold and Paul Tait)




posted for fair use and discussion
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-n...USKCN0Z82SF?mod=related&channelName=Aerospace

Wed Jun 22, 2016 10:43pm EDT
Related: World, North Korea, Aerospace & Defense
Pentagon chief says North Korea test shows need for better defenses
U.S. Secretary of Defense Ash Carter testifies on operations against the Islamic State, on Capitol Hill in Washington, U.S., April 28, 2016. REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst
U.S. Secretary of Defense Ash Carter testifies on operations against the Islamic State, on Capitol Hill in Washington, U.S., April 28, 2016.
Reuters/Jonathan Ernst

U.S. Defense Secretary Ash Carter said on Wednesday he did not know if North Korea's latest missile test was a success, but it flew further than past attempts and showed the need to step up defenses in South Korea, the United States and Japan.

North Korea launched what appeared to be an intermediate-range missile on Wednesday to a high altitude in the direction of Japan before it plunged into the sea, military officials said, an advance after several test failures, including one two hours earlier.

Speaking with reporters at Fort Knox, Kentucky, Carter acknowledged that one of the two missiles fired "flew for a long time."

"I don't know whether it was successful. I don't know what the test objectives were as seen by the North Koreans," he said.

"But for whatever reason, and with whatever level of success, this shows the need for us to continue to do what we're doing, which is build these missile defenses of various ranges to protect both our South Korean allies, U.S. forces on the Korean Peninsula, Japan, and U.S. territory."

The United States and South Korea began formal discussions on deploying a new missile defense system in South Korea after North Korea conducted a fourth nuclear test in January, then launched a rocket into space as part of a program seen as a cover for intercontinental ballistic missile development.

U.S. officials said this month that plans for deployment of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system were moving ahead and an announcement could be expected soon, in spite of objections by China.

Wednesday's first launch was the fifth unsuccessful attempt in two months to launch a missile designed to fly more than 3,000 km (1,800 miles) and could theoretically reach any part of Japan and the U.S. territory of Guam.

John Schilling, an aerospace expert who contributes to the 38 North Korea monitoring website, said it appeared North Korea had been seeking to show the full performance of the missile's propulsion system while avoiding an overflight of Japan.

But he said the successful firing of the second missile appeared a matter of luck rather than real progress.

"If they want a weapon, they will have to stand down for a year or so to figure out what went right and what went wrong, then come back with another test program at a more realistic pace," he said.

"If all they want is a propaganda win, they'll probably claim this as a complete success and go home before they have any more embarrassing failures."

(This version of the story corrects number of nuclear tests to four in paragraph 6)

(Reporting by David Brunnstrom and Idrees Ali; Editing by David Gregorio)
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Hummm......

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://38north.org/2016/06/jschilling062316/

A Partial Success for the Musudan

By John Schilling
23 June 2016

Summary

North Korea’s latest Musudan (Hwasong-10) missile test finally demonstrated the full performance of the missile’s propulsion system, and at least a minimally functional guidance system. The trajectory was not representative of an operational launch, and so leaves open questions about the performance of the reentry vehicle. Perhaps more importantly, two launches only a few hours apart and with one missile breaking up in flight, gives the North Koreans little chance of understanding what went wrong. The Musudan is not a reliable weapon, and Pyongyang does not seem to be trying to make it a reliable weapon. But even if this is just a propaganda stunt and the Musudan is to be quietly abandoned, this partial success increases the likelihood that North Korea’s KN-08 and KN-14 road-mobile inter-continental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) will reach operational status early in the next decade.

The Persistent Pursuit of the Musudan

After four consecutive failures in rapid succession, we figured we might have seen the last of North Korea’s Musudan missile. Given the pace of testing earlier this year, faster than any technical results could be interpreted and incorporated into a revised design, there was little chance of North Korea obtaining a useful weapon. At best, and only by luck, it might have scored a propaganda victory with a marginally successful flight. And with every failure, the odds of that seemed increasingly remote.

But if the North Koreans are in too much of a hurry to do the job right, they are at least persistent in doing something. And now it appears that they have at least a partial success to show for it. We have confirmed reports that two missiles were fired from mobile launchers near Wonsan on June 21, with one missile disintegrating in flight perhaps 150 km downrange and the second impacting at a range of 400 km. That is little more than a tenth of the Musudan’s expected range of roughly 3,500 km, but it is more than we had ever seen before.

This may be due to a modification in the missile’s aerodynamics. North Korea has released pictures of what appears to be a Musudan in flight with a set of eight grid fins around the base, which weren’t present in previous satellite or parade photos or in the old Soviet R-27 missile on which the Musudan is based. Presumably the North Korean engineers guessed that their modifications to the Musudan had compromised its stability in early flight, and that some extra aerodynamic controls would fix that problem. With no more than two months to work, this cannot have been much more than a jury-rigged fix based on an educated guess, but it was apparently a good one. Now they have to guess what went wrong to cause a missile to break up at 150 km, which will be rather more difficult.

Reports from Japan indicate that the second missile had reached an altitude of over 1,000 km, with North Korea claiming a very precise 1,413.6 km. This is far higher than would be normal for a missile of that size. A bit of analysis indicates that achieving this altitude would require roughly the full performance of the Musudan missile’s propulsion system, devoted to an almost perfectly vertical ascent. That’s not very useful from a military perspective, but it is still an impressive feat for a missile that last month was blowing up on the launch pad.

As a test, this isn’t as useful as launching the missile on its more usual ballistic arc. It gives the engines a full workout, but makes it harder to verify the performance of the guidance system. It also provides a different reentry environment, and testing the reentry vehicle is going to be critical to North Korea. Their older missiles entered the atmosphere at no more than half the Musudan’s speed. The North Koreans probably now know, for the first time, what happens when one of their warheads enters the atmosphere at roughly 10,000 miles per hour, but at an abnormally steep angle which will give a shorter but more intense heating load and do most of its deceleration lower in the atmosphere than it would in an operational launch. They might still not know whether the warhead would survive in an operational flight.

Why would they have tested a missile in such a manner? Examining a map of the region shows that there is really no way to launch a missile from Wonsan to a range of more than 1,000 km without overflying some foreign country, most likely Japan. The Japanese take a dim view of North Korean missiles flying over their country, and they have Aegis-equipped warships capable of shooting down missiles. Pyongyang apparently didn’t want to take that provocative risk.

They could have launched the missile from their Sohae Satellite Launching Station, which has clear range to the south as far as the Philippines. North Korea’s orbital launches have used this site and this trajectory, and it would have made for a more realistic test of the Musudan. Given that the Musudan is a mobile missile, they could have launched from any paved road along the southeast coast for the same effect. But North Korea’s engineers almost certainly would have wanted the support of powerful tracking radars and other infrastructure associated with a permanent launch site, and the Sohae site has only been used for North Korea’s nominally civilian satellite launches. There may have been some internal politics involved in the decision to loft the missile high over the East Sea and bring it down at such a short range.

The bigger limitation of this test is the decision to launch two missiles only a few hours apart. That decision greatly limits what can actually be learned from the test. There is no possibility, in that timeframe, of figuring out what went wrong with the first missile and fixing it. As with the earlier Musudan tests, this isn’t so much an engineering program so much as an exercise in tossing a coin or rolling a die until it comes up with the result they like. If North Korea’s sixth and latest Musudan launch counts as a success in their minds—and it well might—the one before it was still clearly a failure. Do they now have a reliable missile that had a spot of bad luck, or a dud that got lucky and worked once? We don’t know. Neither do they. And they knew from the start that they wouldn’t know if they had a reliable missile in the end.

So we should probably assume they don’t really care, that this was about propaganda and image rather than engineering and weapons development. They have achieved something that is as close to a win as possible without overflying Japan, and if they try again there’s a good chance that Musudan #7 will be an embarrassing failure just like Musudan #5.

Best case, they declare victory and go home, and make a quiet note to never actually trust the Musudan in wartime. Worst case, they tell their engineers to go back to their ground test facilities and turn this one-shot stunt into a useful weapon. The engineers in question would probably be quite happy to know they still have jobs, and turning the results from this spurt of unreasonably fast testing into a reliable weapon, would occupy them for a year or two at least. If they come back a year from now, testing Musudan missiles one at a time and with three to six months between tests, then we can start worrying about an operational Musudan.

But we should also consider worrying about an operational KN-08 or KN-14. These missiles use the same ex-Soviet engine as the Musudan, but in a clustered and multi-stage configuration capable of reaching much of the US mainland. We have seen them test this engine on the ground, but until now they had never successfully flown one. Even if North Korea retires the Musudan as too unreliable for anything but propaganda stunts, they will presumably ship any test data to the engineers building the ICBMs. And those engineers don’t seem to be under any pressure to rush into premature flight testing.

Regardless of the ultimate fate of the Musudan, the credibility of the KN-08 and KN-14 road-mobile ICBMs has increased a few notches. The North Koreans have the engines they need, and they can at least sometimes make them work in flight. There is still a great deal of work for them to do. The clustered twin-engine installation in particular will likely give them a few surprises on its first flight, and it will likely take them several tries to get the complete system right. We still don’t expect them to have those missiles operational before 2020, but early flight testing by that date is increasingly likely.
 

Housecarl

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http://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles-un-idUSKCN0Z928O

World | Thu Jun 23, 2016 2:53pm EDT
Related: World, United Nations, North Korea

U.N. Security Council condemns North Korea missile launches

UNITED NATIONS | By Michelle Nichols


The United Nations Security Council on Thursday condemned North Korea's most recent ballistic missile launches as a grave violation of an international ban and called on the 193 U.N. member states to enforce toughened sanctions on the Asian state.

North Korea, or the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, launched what appeared to be an intermediate-range missile on Wednesday to a high altitude in the direction of Japan before it plunged into the sea about two hours after a similar test failed.

"The members of the Security Council deplore all DPRK ballistic missile activities noting that such activities contribute to the DPRK's development of nuclear weapons delivery systems and increase tension," the 15-member body said.

"The members of the Security Council further regretted that the DPRK is diverting resources to the pursuit of ballistic missiles while DPRK citizens have great unmet needs," it said.

After supervising the missile launches, North Korea leader Kim Jong Un said his country now has the capability to attack U.S. interests in the Pacific, official media reported.

The U.N. Security Council met on Wednesday evening to discuss the missile launches. The statement issued on Thursday is almost identical to a condemnation by the council on June 1 over several previous ballistic missile tests by Pyongyang.

U.S. Ambassador Samantha Power signaled that the United States would seek "to identify individual, entities who may be responsible for this repeated series of tests" and could be sanctioned by the Security Council.

North Korea has been under U.N. sanctions since 2006. In March, the Security Council imposed harsh new sanctions on the country in response to North Korea's fourth nuclear test in January and the launch of a long-range rocket in February.

Power said that since the new sanctions were imposed in March North Korea had carried out 10 ballistic missile tests.

"As DPRK continues to test these delivery systems they make progress and they learn things and thus it is extremely important that we come together and we address any hidden gaps there may be in the enforcement" of the March resolution, Power said on Wednesday.


(Reporting by Michelle Nichols; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)
 

Housecarl

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http://www.breitbart.com/national-s...-biden-claims-japan-can-go-nuclear-overnight/

Joe Biden to China: Curb North Korea or Japan Can Go Nuclear ‘Virtually Overnight’

by Frances Martel
24 Jun 2016
Comments 35

Vice President Joe Biden warned China that the Japanese government may acquire nuclear weapons “virtually overnight” if the threat from North Korea becomes too grave, urging Beijing to do more to curb Pyongyang’s belligerence.

The Vice President’s comments echo those of presumptive Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump, who warned that Japan and South Korea acquiring nuclear weapons “is going to happen anyway” in controversial remarks issued in March. Japanese government officials and media responded to Trump’s comments much more severely than they have to Biden’s.

“What happens if Japan, who could tomorrow, could go nuclear tomorrow? They have the capacity to do it virtually overnight,” Biden told PBS host Charlie Rose in an interview broadcast Monday. He explained that he made this warning to Chinese President Xi Jinping personally while discussing the deployment of a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system in South Korea to protect from a North Korean attack, a move that China has condemned vocally.

“When I tell President Xi, you have to understand we got a guy up there in North Korea who is talking about building weapons that can strike, nuclear weapons strike the United States and not only Hawaii and Alaska, but… the mainland of the United States,” he told Rose. “And I say, so we’re going to move up our defense system, and he says no, no, no, wait a minute, my military thinks you’re going to try to circle us.”

Biden suggested that China, a fellow communist country, “has the single greatest ability to influence North Korea.”

Japan has issued a tepid response to the remarks, with Japanese Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Hiroshige Seko telling reporters Friday that Japan simply “can never possess nuclear weapons.” Japan remains the only nation in the world to experience a nuclear weapon attack.

In March, Trump stated that both Japan and South Korea were likely to develop nuclear capabilities due to their access to advanced technology. “It’s going to happen, anyway. It’s only a question of time. They’re going to start having them, or we have to get rid of them entirely,” he said, suggesting that, should the move be inevitable, the United States should do more to curb its defense expenses in Asia protecting wealthy nations.

In response, Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida stated that Japan having nuclear capabilities was “impossible,” and national newspaper Asahi Shimbun described national leaders as responding with “bewilderment and unease.

The government of North Korea has behaved with extreme belligerence in 2016, beginning the year with the detonation of what they claimed was a hydrogen bomb and repeatedly launching missiles towards Japan (all have failed to reach their targets). Most recently, North Korea tested what are believed to be two Musudan ballistic missiles, with one reaching the greatest height the nation has yet to achieve on a test.

China responded to the new test by calling for North Korea to “act with caution and refrain from taking actions that may elevate tension on the Korean peninsula.” China recently backed expanded UN sanctions on North Korea, but has condemned U.S. and South Korean defense buildups in response to Pyongyang, claiming that the also put Beijing in the line of fire.

While China has kept its criticism of North Korea tepid and remained its largest trade partner, the volume of that trade has declined significantly. Imports from North Korea dropped 12.6 percent between May 2015 and May 2016, while exports to North Korea fell 5.9 percent in the same time period.
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http://allthingsnuclear.org/dwright/analysis-of-north-koreas-musudan-missile-test-part-1

Analysis of North Korea’s Musudan Missile Test–Part 1

David Wright, co-director and senior scientist | June 24, 2016, 3:58 pm EDT

After four failed attempts to launch its so-called Musudan missile (called Hwasong-10 in North Korea), it appears to have had at least one success in a new sets of flight tests on June 21. That test tells us something interesting about the range of the missile.

The second of the two launches on June 21 apparently flew successfully, but followed an unusual trajectory. It splashed down into the Sea of Japan at a range of only 400 km from the launch site, but was highly lofted so that it reached an altitude of 1,400 km.

Using this trajectory allowed North Korea to test the missile from its military launch site on the country’s east coast without flying over Japan, since the Musudan’s range on a standard trajectory is about twice as great as the distance from North Korea to Japan (Fig. 1). A past overflight of Japan caused serious international tensions and it seems likely this launch was intended to test the missile while avoiding that.

Sea-of-Japan-with-400-km-circle-768x567.jpg

http://allthingsnuclear.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/Sea-of-Japan-with-400-km-circle-768x567.jpg
Fig. 1 The red circle shows a range of 400 km from the launch site. (Source: Google Earth, with additions)

Range of the Musudan missile

Knowing the range and maximum altitude of the test flight allows us to estimate the range of the Musudan if it were launched on a standard trajectory.

I put together a computer model of the missile based on estimates of parameters like thrust, engine burntime, payload, etc. I then adjusted those parameters to give a range of 400 km with an apogee of 1,400 km. Using those same parameters, I then calculated what the maximum range of that missile would be if flown on a non-lofted trajectory. The result of that calculation is shown in Fig. 2.

That calculation shows that the Musudan’s range would be about 3,000 km on a standard “minimum-energy” (MET) trajectory, assuming the same payload as the lofted test.

Lofted-and-MET-trajs-768x520.jpg

http://allthingsnuclear.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/Lofted-and-MET-trajs-768x520.jpg
Fig. 2 The red curve shows the lofted trajectory that was reportedly used in the second test on June 21. The black curve shows the trajectory of the same missile flown on a standard “minimum-energy” trajectory (MET).

This is an interesting result because it is significantly shorter than many estimates of the Musudan range. For example, this WikiLeaks document gives an official US range estimate of 4,000 km with a 500 kg payload.

I have long been skeptical of those range claims. The Musudan is believed to be based on a Soviet submarine-launched missile, the SSN-6, which the Koreans have lengthened to carry more fuel and increase its range. My analysis based on the performance of the SSN-6 suggests instead a Musudan range of about 3,500 km with a 500 kg payload, and about 3,000 km with a 750 kg payload.

We don’t, of course, know what payload was used on the test. Maybe the missile carried a much heavier payload than 500 kg. But it would make sense for North Korea to conduct the test with the payload it would expect the missile to carry if it was actually used. For example, the reentry heating on a 4,000 km range missile would be nearly 40% higher than on a 3,000 km range missile, given the higher reentry speed. So the North would want to test on the equivalent of a 4,000 km range trajectory if it expected to fly the missile to that distance.

The 3,000 km range is also interesting since it is shorter than the distance to Guam, which is about 3,400 km (Fig. 3). Being able to reach Guam is seen as a key motivation for the Musudan since Guam has a US military base and is the next logical target for North Korea after its development of the Nodong missile to reach Japan.

If this test reflects the state of the art of North Korea’s missile and warhead technology it could mean that North Korea’s nuclear warhead is currently too heavy for the Musudan to carry it to Guam.

Ranges-from-NK-768x470.jpg

http://allthingsnuclear.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/Ranges-from-NK-768x470.jpg
Fig. 3 (Source: Google maps, with additions)

The “failure” of the first launch on June 21

Reports state that the first missile launched on June 21 broke up at a range of about 150 km and fell into the sea. That may have resulted from a simple mechanical failure, although it is not clear what would have caused it at that point in the flight.

There may be another possibility. It is unclear from press reports whether or not this missile was also flown on a lofted trajectory. If it was instead flown on a standard trajectory, it is interesting that 150 km range corresponds roughly to burnout of the Musudan engines (see red dot in Fig. 2).

Is it possible that Pyongyang launched the first missile on a standard trajectory to test the guidance and control system, and then intentionally terminated the flight following burnout to keep it from overflying Japan? That would allow them to test on a standard trajectory the guidance and control systems that operate in the early part of flight. The second test on the lofted trajectory would allow them to test the operation of the reentry heat shield in the later part of the flight. We discuss that more in Part 2 of this post.

So it would be very useful to know what trajectory the first missile followed.
 
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