That still doesn't explain how they claim to have created a vaccine in just 3 months for this new strain. And it has mutated since then. So, how is it possible that they could have a vaccine ready before fall? It's not.
You seem to know what you are talking about, so I would really like an explanation please?
My other question is this, why would they have not closed the borders, and travel, to and from Mexico at the first sign of this swine flu problem? Why wait until we reach phase 6(pandemic) and still not stop travel? This all does not make any sense. It's deliberate in my opinion.
Ok, here is what I know. And I'm not an expert, by any means.... but I was watching H5N1 for several years, have done a ton of research into various remedies, and have watched the evolution of the "WHO Pandemic plan".
The vaccine is NOT ready to go... it doesn't matter who says so! The "index case" (which was discovered by *accident*, believe it or not... a young boy who got treatment for flu through a military provider out in California, where it just happened that a researcher was doing a study, took some samples from him (as well as many others, I'd presume) and discovered that the flu the kid had was brand new. IIRC, he had been in Mexico, and when people started dying in Mexico, it turned out to be the same strain)... was back in March or April.
When Mexico blew up, they did at least have the samples left from the first case to work with. And it was those specimens they sent to the drug companies to try to make a vaccine from.
*AT THIS POINT* (to the best of my knowledge, and I'll admit to not watching it on a day-by-day basis... fighting H1N1 here at home combined with the usual summer farm craziness has made me have to use some "triage" of my own as far as how much time I spend on theoreticals) they have managed to "develop" a vaccine (ie; they found a way to modify the strain, or kill it without destroying the genetic material, and multiply it). That's all.
What they have at this point, is the "seed stock", if you will... sort of like saying "I've got 10# of sweet corn seed, and we're going to all eat sweet corn in September".
IOW, it's highly likely they will be able to use their "seed stock" to create multiple copies (doses of vaccine) by fall... and that was *always* where the "6 months" came in.
(I also believe I read- but don't quote me on this, and I don't have time to go digging today- that they were using a different method of growing this virus out, rather than using eggs, which is typical. I could be wrong on that, but I thought I read at the time that it would "speed up the process", which was why they were doing it. Damn, getting old-er sux!)
As far as the borders... well, that goes back to what I said about them having tunnel vision, and BADLY screwing up because they were concentrating so hard on H5N1. I was stunned when I realized they had NO plans in place if a virulent virus emerged *anywhere except* southeast Asia. Margaret Chan admitted as much in one of her early press conferences.
And, of course, "closing the US-Mexican border" is fraught with huge emotional and political connotations... and we have a President whose proven tendency is to "vote present"... ie: not ever going on record to make an unpopular decision.
(I also should point out the sheer logistics of "closing the border"... and the potential for unintended consequences. When this blew up in Mexico, THOUSANDS (probably tens of thousands) of tourists (probably the majority Americans) were in Mexico, as it was "spring break" and "spring vacation" for many schools. My daughter, her husband and several teachers from their school were among them! "Closing the border" completely would have stranded a ton of non-Mexican citizens, and for no reason... DD and DSIL were perfectly healthy when they came home. Several of their group stayed longer, and then were stranded at the Mexico City airport for 24 hours due to weather conditions, and then stranded again in St Louis... they ended up renting a car and driving home in order to not miss their first day back at work! THOSE latecomers were sent home and told to self quarantine, until they got a doctor's certificate saying they were healthy. AFAIK, none of them developed clinical disease... but *someone* brought it back to their area, because their county is loaded. DD caught it there, a few weeks later. But... since we already HAD at least one case (and it's like cockroaches... if you see one, you KNOW there are many more) in the US... it would have been closing the door once the horse had escaped. Add in the extremely fragile world economy - which IS the god of most political types- and it would have taken having hundreds of bodies bloating in the streets before they would have shut down travel.)
Influenza, as some others have pointed out in the past few months, is a really bad (poor) choice for a weaponized disease. It's highly prone to mutating on it's own, and in very unpredictable ways. It's not all that "shocking" or even visible... unlike, say, smallpox, whose victims were instantly recognizable even in fairly early stages. And it's not all *that* contagious, if people are careful.
My bottom line: I'm not taking the vaccine (and wouldn't even if we hadn't already had the bug). Not because I'm afraid it's a nefarious plot to reduce the world's population, but because it's too new, has been pushed through in a potentially dangerous haste, and the fact that we have laws in place that protect the vaccine companies from lawsuits if they screw up doesn't give them a lot of incentive to make absolutely sure they are actually safe and effective before they release them.
And the other thing: there is NO way they can produce enough vaccine in the next few months to vaccinate everyone! They may manage to get enough produced to give to those on the "front lines"... doctors, nurses, other health care workers, EMT's, cops, maybe down the line to school teachers. But the politics of the situation will mean that poor countries are going to DEMAND their "fair share"... and there are a lot of people in the world.
You can probably find much of what I've just sketched out here by searching that incredible "flu thread" on TB2k... all the news conference transcripts, etc, are on there.
I don't know what else to tell anyone: at this point, taking a vaccine needs to be a very personal decision, preferably made after discussing your own health and risks with your own doctor. (no, we don't have a personal physician, and I realize that optimum scenario is probably impossible for many these days). Our own choice has always been to self-isolate, and do self-care... and it's worked very well. I couldn't very well avoid the social interaction required by the upcoming wedding of our youngest, or we likely wouldn't have gotten sick... our lives are naturally very isolated on our rural farm.
But you also need to remember, many of the "accepted protocols" for keeping influenza in check aren't working with this strain, because it *is contagious at least 24 hours before a person feels ANY symptoms*. That is one reason why we're still seeing it spread... even the most conscientious person who wouldn't dream of going to work or school if they were ill, may well spread it to several others *the day before* they break with a fever or sore throat. So while "wash your hands frequently, and don't touch your mouth or nose" is helpful... "stay home if you're ill or running a fever" is too little, too late.
In conclusion... I'm not minimizing the severity of this flu... it's a dangerous virus, even in it's current "mild" form. It has the worst inflammatory effects I've ever seen in a disease... I can easily see how it can kill. But at this point, I don't see any reason to believe it was "man-made", and certainly not a deliberate release.
I could be wrong...
Summerthyme
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