WAR Main Persian Gulf Trouble thread

jward

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Israel Radar
@IsraelRadar_com


Iran's supreme leader Khamenei cancelled all public appearances due to illness, is currently under medical observation, @kann_new reports; full details about his health condition unknown at this time.


12:03 PM · Sep 16, 2022·Twitter Web App

Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei Gravely Ill – The NYT​

People familiar with Iran’s Supreme Leader health situation say Ali Khamenei is gravely ill and is currently on bed rest under observation by a team of doctors, the New York Times reported.
The newspaper on Friday quoted four people familiar with Khamenei’s health condition as saying that all his meetings are cancelled while there have been numerous rumors about his death on social media in recent days.
Iran International had earlier reported about Khamenei absence from the public scene since the beginning of this month, while some pundits said separately that Khamenei has given Raisi authority to make decision over Iran’s nuclear talks with the West.
The octogenarian leader had surgery at a clinic set up at his home and office complex some time last week for bowel obstruction after suffering extreme stomach pains and high fever, one of the people said.
One of the sources said he is currently being monitored around the clock by a team of doctors, claiming that his condition was critical last week, but has improved, and he is currently resting.
The Iranian government has not denied social media reports circulating for more than a week about Khamenei's illness. Meanwhile, his office cancelled two scheduled meetings with the Assembly of Experts members and Basij militia during the past days.
In another development, a picture released by the official news agency IRNA last week about Khamenei's meeting with athletes, turned out to be at last three years old and the agency pulled the story.
 

jward

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https://twitter.com/vcdgf555
Evergreen Intel
@vcdgf555
10m

Part one. The beating and murder of Kurdish 22 year-old Jina Mahsa Amini by Iranian "Morality" Police in Tehran
View: https://twitter.com/vcdgf555/status/1571148815708856324?s=20&t=ya20yC_b0FrSxyhQJHemew


Part two. Unrest swells as the news of Jina Amini's death (for which her only "crime" was her hijab was worn "improperly) spreads within the Kurdish community in Iran.
View: https://twitter.com/vcdgf555/status/1571149328164737025?s=20&t=ya20yC_b0FrSxyhQJHemew


Part three. Iranian security forces allegedly shooting protesters who came out in support (and ultimately anger) for the senseless death if Jina Amini. Here, a wounded man is taken off the street to cover. His condition is unknown.
View: https://twitter.com/vcdgf555/status/1571149962054103043?s=20&t=ya20yC_b0FrSxyhQJHemew


Part four. Internet connectivity is down across Iran by 1/3 as protests continue to be met with violence. It is highly likely that Iran is trying to prevent news of the crackdown from leaking as well as attempting to disrupt coordination via social media.
View: https://twitter.com/vcdgf555/status/1571151236996689920?s=20&t=ya20yC_b0FrSxyhQJHemew
Erfan Fard
@EQfard
52m

Today in #Saqez; the Islamic #Terrorist thugs murdered innocent people in #Iran. After the burial ceremony, clashes broke out between people & security forces. Several citizens were injured as the result of direct shooting. It turns #MahsaAmini's funeral into a blood bath.
View: https://twitter.com/EQfard/status/1571140514195574785?s=20&t=ya20yC_b0FrSxyhQJHemew
 

jward

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Yaghoub Fazeli
@y_fazeli
22m

Large crowds in the streets of Sanandaj today as protests sparked by the killing of Mahsa (Jina) Amini continue for the second consecutive day in the provincial capital of #Iran's Kurdistan province.
View: https://twitter.com/y_fazeli/status/1571533864828370944?s=20&t=OfsknjUu9DpyBiGlDp7gpw







Happened during burial of #Mahsa_Amini who was murdered by #Iranian Islamic Police over not covering her hair in public. A Sunni cleric wanted to pray for her and a family member of Mahsa protested him & told him: "Your Islam killed our Mahsa. Take your Islam & leave here".
View: https://twitter.com/BabakTaghvaee/status/1571537758749077504?s=20&t=OfsknjUu9DpyBiGlDp7gpw
 

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Eight reported killed as Iran protests spread over woman's death - Insider Paper​




At least eight people have been killed by Wednesday in a crackdown on protests in Iran over the death of Mahsa Amini after the young woman was arrested by morality police, according to a combined toll.
Public anger has flared in the Islamic republic since authorities on Friday announced the death of 22-year-old Amini, who had been held for allegedly wearing a hijab headscarf in an “improper” way.
Activists said the woman, whose Kurdish first name is Jhina, had suffered a fatal blow to the head, a claim denied by officials who have announced an investigation.
Some women demonstrators have defiantly taken off their hijabs and burned them in bonfires or symbolically cut their hair before cheering crowds, video footage spread virally on social media has shown.
“No to the headscarf, no to the turban, yes to freedom and equality!” protesters in Tehran were heard chanting in a rally that has been echoed by solidarity protests abroad, including in New York and Istanbul.
Iranian state media reported on Wednesday that, in a fifth night of street rallies that had spread to 15 cities, police used tear gas and made arrests to disperse crowds of up to 1,000 people.

London-based rights group Article 19 said it was “deeply concerned by reports of the unlawful use of force by Iranian police and security forces” including the use of live ammunition.
Demonstrators hurled stones at security forces, set fire to police vehicles and garbage bins and chanted anti-government slogans, the official IRNA news agency said, adding that rallies were held in cities including Mashhad, Tabriz, Isfahan and Shiraz.
“Death to the dictator” and “Woman, life, freedom”, protesters could be heard shouting in video footage that spread beyond Iran, despite online restrictions reported by internet access monitor Netblocks.
Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei spoke publicly without mentioning the spreading unrest on Wednesday, before ultra-conservative President Ebrahim Raisi began addressing the UN General Assembly in New York.
Also at the UN, British Foreign Secretary James Cleverly told AFP that “the Iranian leadership should notice that the people are unhappy with the direction that they have taken. There is another path that they could take.”

– ‘Significant shock’ –​

The wave of protests over Amini’s death “is a very significant shock, it is a societal crisis,” said Iran expert David Rigoulet-Roze of the French Institute for International and Strategic Affairs.
“It is difficult to know the outcome but there is a disconnect between the authorities with their DNA of the Islamic revolution of 1979 and an increasingly secularised society.
“It is a whole social project that is being called into question. There is a hesitation among the authorities on the way forward with regard to this movement.”
Protests first erupted Friday in Amini’s home province of Kurdistan, where governor Ismail Zarei Koosha said Tuesday three people had been killed in “a plot by the enemy”.
Kurdistan police commander Ali Azadi on Wednesday announced the death of another person, according to Tasnim news agency.
Two more protesters “were killed during the riots” in Kermanshah province, the region’s prosecutor Shahram Karami was quoted as saying by Fars news agency, blaming “counter-revolutionary agents”.
Additionally, the Norway-based Kurdish rights group Hengaw said two protesters, aged 16 and 23, had been killed overnight in West Azerbaijan province.
An additional 450 people had been wounded and 500 arrested, the group said — figures that could not be independently verified.

– ‘Enemy plot’ –​

Video spread online showing security forces opening fire on protesters in the southern city of Shiraz, where protests continued into the early hours of the morning.
Amini’s death and Iran’s response to the protests have sparked condemnation from the United Nations, United States, France and other countries.
The protests are among the most serious in Iran since November 2019 unrest over fuel price rises.
Foreign ministry spokesman Nasser Kanani on Tuesday condemned what he called “foreign interventionist positions”.
“It is regrettable that some countries try to take advantage of an incident under investigation as an opportunity to pursue their political goals and desires against the government and people of Iran,” he said.
Iran’s Telecommunications Minister Issa Zarepour on Wednesday warned of internet restrictions, citing the “security issues of these days,” ISNA news agency said.
Article 19 said it was “alarmed by the local internet shutdowns”, recalling that in 2019 authorities had “used the darkness of a shutdown to kill, maim and arrest protesters and bystanders with impunity”.
 

jward

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jward

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Jason Brodsky
@JasonMBrodsky
2h

If the IRGC's Sarallah Headquarters is being deployed, that means #Iran's crackdown will be entering a new stage in intensity that requires reinforcements to first layer of a police response
View: https://twitter.com/JasonMBrodsky/status/1573749445539274755?s=20&t=7GVJsEjPPWX3TfOtDHVXzQ




The Cavell Group
@TCG_CrisisRisks
7h

Iran: Escalation in civil unrest and demonstrations across the country with protesters seizing some towns after security forces withdrew. Live rounds used to disperse demonstrators in other areas. Fatalities and casualties reported. Mobile network and widespread internet outages
View: https://twitter.com/TCG_CrisisRisks/status/1573459908850114561?s=20&t=dJ-XGRgQ_Ugsz01nDH6ahg
 

jward

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Critical Threats
@criticalthreats


Uncorroborated reports suggest that #Iran is mobilizing its proxies to suppress ongoing #MahsaAmini protests. If true, #proxy participation may indicate that Iran fears disloyalty among security personnel and requires additional manpower to quell unrest. 1/4 #IranProtests

Social media users reported that #Iranian leadership is seeking to mobilize 4,000 #Hezbollah members to participate in Iranian domestic protest suppression. CTP cannot independently corroborate these reports. 2/4
View: https://twitter.com/criticalthreats/status/1573743303341785093?s=20&t=7GVJsEjPPWX3TfOtDHVXzQ


This isn't the first time we're hearing these reports: #Iranian leadership has long been suspected of deploying proxies to support security forces' crackdowns in prior protest waves, like the 2009 Green Movement. 3/4
View: https://twitter.com/criticalthreats/status/1573743305678020615?s=20&t=7GVJsEjPPWX3TfOtDHVXzQ


#Iran has previously demonstrated its willingness to import proxies to assist with other domestic challenges. The #IRGC Quds Force deployed the #Fatemiyoun and #Iraqi groups to southwestern Iran in April 2019 to assist in disaster relief, for example. 4/4
View: https://twitter.com/criticalthreats/status/1573743307745857538?s=20&t=7GVJsEjPPWX3TfOtDHVXzQ


1:36 PM · Sep 24, 2022·Twitter Web App
 

jward

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Apex
@Apex_WW
2h

Telegraph: Iran has recruited extremist foreign militias to help “wipe out rioters from the streets of Tehran.”









Aleph א
@no_itsmyturn
3h

Remember, always remember, if the Iranian regime gets overthrown, Putin's Russia won't have Mohajer-6 and Shahed-136 UAVs as well. A Mullah-free Iran, is not just good for Iranians, but it's for the whole world. #IranProtests
 

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https://twitter.com/criticalthreats/photo
Critical Threats
@criticalthreats

An @AEI project focused on understanding threats and tracking global challenges | Contact us: criticalthreats@aei.org | Media requests: mediaservices@aei.org

Non-Governmental & Nonprofit Organization criticalthreats.org
Joined January 2010
750 Following
49.9K Followers



Followed by Military Lab, OSINT Aggregator, and 52 others you follow

Key #Iranian military leaders may be endorsing President Ebrahim #Raisi to succeed Ali #Khamenei as #Iran’s next supreme leader. Here is what happened and why it matters: (1/8)

Senior Iranian military officials published an open letter praising Raisi’s #UN General Assembly address on 9/21. These letters are rare and used by officials to signify their political positions to the wider regime. Some of the #IRGC’s senior commanders signed this letter. (2/8)

These IRGC commanders include a tight circle of senior officers who often influence and intervene in domestic politics to promote their hardline agendas. They have established the IRGC as the most dominant actor in Iran. Read more here: (3/8)
criticalthreats.org/wp-content/upl…

This endorsement coincides with reports of Supreme Leader #Khamenei’s declining health, sparking an intra-regime debate over who will succeed him. This letter indicates that the military leadership may support Raisi as the next supreme leader. (4/8)


Iran’s Supreme Leader Cancels Public Appearances After Falling Ill Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is on bed rest and under observation by a team of doctors, according to four people familiar with his health situation. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/16/...ytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare

Supreme Leader Raisi would likely pursue similar, if not more aggressive, policies than Khamenei’s. Raisi is just as radical as Khamenei, if not more so, and has a long history of persecuting political dissent and consolidating the regime’s power. (5/8)

Supreme Leader Raisi would also be initially weaker than Khamenei. Raisi would reckon with the IRGC’s influence and power without Khamenei’s gravitas and ties to the IRGC's formation. Raisi may struggle to command or constrain the IRGC as effectively as Khamenei. (6/8)

The support of the IRGC’s leadership could help Raisi overcome Mojtaba Khamenei—the son of Ali Khamenei—in the race to become supreme leader. Mojtaba is another frontrunner for succession alongside Raisi. (7/8)

Read the @criticalthreats assessment on how Iran could transform after Khamenei here: (8/8)


Iran after Ali Khamenei: Forecasting Trajectories Iran after Ali Khamenei: Forecasting Trajectories

• • •
 

jward

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Insider Paper
@TheInsiderPaper
4h

NEW - Iran has arrested the daughter of ex-president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani for inciting protests - Tasnim News
 

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jward

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Aleph א
@no_itsmyturn
1h

An IRGC terror commander confirms that they've launched 73 ballistic missiles towards the Iraqi Kurdistan region.
 

jward

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hmm. I have wondered if this might really be "it"- but we've heard they were on the verge of overthrowing the gov. so many times. . . :; shrug ::

Jason Brodsky
@JasonMBrodsky
38m

October 1, 2022 was a very bad day for the Islamic Republic of #Iran's leadership. Domestic and international protests signaling a complete lack of legitimacy. It will take time, but may this be the beginning of this system's end. #Mahsa_Amini
 

jward

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Tehran's continuing to get pounded

China-bound Iranian plane leaves Indian airspace following false bomb scare​

WION Web Team


Indian military jets were scrambled on Monday after a bomb alert on an Iranian airliner that turned out to be false, the Indian Air Force (IAF) said. The threat was reported onboard a Mahan Air plane over Indian airspace. The passenger plane was moving from Iran to China's Guangzhou.
"IAF fighter aircraft were scrambled, which followed the aircraft at a safe distance. The aircraft was offered the option to land at Jaipur & then, at Chandigarh," the IAF said in a statement, referring to two airports in northern India.
As the foreign aircraft entered the Indian airspace, the alert from Indian Air Traffic Control was shared with the plane. Indian Air Force Su-30MKI fighter jets from Punjab and Jodhpur airbases were scrambled to intercept the plane, sources told ANI.
IAF jets were scrambled after info was received & we were following it maintaining a safe distance as per SOPs. However, the aircraft was allowed to continue on its flight towards China after Iranian agencies asked us to disregard the threat: IAF Sources
— ANI (@ANI) October 3, 2022
×
According to sources, inputs were received by security agencies in Delhi about the possibility of a bomb on board, which triggered an alert. The Delhi ATC refused to grant permission for the plane to land in Delhi and instead asked to move it to Jaipur and later Chandigarh. The plane refused the request and left the Indian airspace instead.
Flight tracker websites showed that the aircraft performed several mid-air circles west of the Indian capital New Delhi before heading east towards its final destination.
"After a while, intimation was received from Tehran to disregard the bomb scare, following which, the aircraft continued on its journey towards its final destination," the IAF statement said.
(With inputs from agencies)
 

jward

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Update: Tehran...
View: https://twitter.com/EndGameWW3/status/1576720293736771584?s=20&t=qcayWP28G1d_6fgNanIOrQ





Hadi Nili
@HadiNili
15h

#IranProtests:
ppl gathering around Shari Uni campus as they learn on social media about the ongoing crackdown on students.
activists suggested that flow of the cars could slow down the movements of security forces.
View: https://twitter.com/HadiNili/status/1576710992075296768?s=20&t=qcayWP28G1d_6fgNanIOrQ
 

jward

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Insider Paper
@TheInsiderPaper
3h

JUST IN Saudi Arabia is seeking to raise oil prices at a crucial meeting in Vienna in a move set to anger the US and help Russia. - FT
 

northern watch

TB Fanatic
Democrats Float an End to US Troop Protection for Gulf Nations After OPEC+ Production Cut

Critics warn that's just what China, Iran, and Russia want in the Middle East


By Joseph Lord
October 6, 2022 Updated: October 6, 2022
The Epoch Times

1665154944271.png
Gas prices over $7.00 a gallon are displayed at a Chevron gas station in Mill Valley, Calif., on Oct. 3, 2022. (Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)

Some Democrats are floating the idea of removing U.S. troops from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) over a recent decision by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries plus Russia (OPEC+) to substantially slash oil production.

Since President Joe Biden took office in January 2021, the cost of gasoline and other energy sources to consumers has seen a substantial uptick.

Republicans have placed the blame for rising costs squarely on Biden’s “anti-American” domestic energy policies.

While in office, Biden made extensive changes to the energy policies of former President Donald Trump, who led America to become energy independent for the first time in decades. Biden, who promised during his campaign to “transition away from the fossil fuel industry,” wasted no time in halting construction on the Keystone XL pipeline and placing a moratorium on leasing federal lands to natural gas and oil companies.

Extenuating the effects of Biden’s climate and energy policies is collusion by OPEC+ and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, both of which have led to further rising costs.

On the morning of Oct. 5, OPEC+ announced that it would be cutting its oil production by two million barrels a day—a cut in production that will have tangible consequences for American consumers.

In its statement announcing the sharp downtick in production, OPEC+ cited “uncertainty that surrounds the global economic and oil market outlooks.” The announcement marks the largest cut in oil production by OPEC+ since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Currently, the world market produces around 100 million barrels of oil a day, meaning that the OPEC decision represents approximately a two percent cut in global production. The hit on consumers will be more than two percent, however, according to experts.

Dan Kish, a senior fellow at the Institute for Energy Research, a nonprofit which leans right, told the Epoch Times as much.

“Well, it’s two percent of total world supply, which is running at about 100 million barrels a day now,” Kish said. “So it’s substantial—you won’t have a two percent effect [on consumer prices]. It’ll have a much higher effect than that because taking two million barrels a day off the market is a significant hit.”

The Biden administration immediately made a statement on the announcement, expressing disappointment and calling the change “shortsighted” in view of the ongoing energy crisis in Europe and the diplomatic crisis over the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

After the announcement, Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.)—one of the most pro-fossil fuel Democrats in Congress—called for the White House to reverse its energy policies and ramp up domestic energy production.

‘A Turning Point’

Now, some Democrats are floating a different approach—removing U.S. troops from Saudi Arabia and the UAE altogether.

Legislation put forward by Reps. Sean Casten (D-Ill.), Tom Malinowski (D-N.J.) and Susan Wild (D-Pa.) would do just that, moving U.S. troops and supplies to other bases in the region.


1665155063424.png
Rep. Sean Casten (D-Ill.) speaks during a news conference to introduce legislation on safe gun storage outside the U.S. Capitol in Washington D.C., on Feb. 8, 2022. (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

In a statement, the trio called the Oct. 5 decision by OPEC+ “a turning point in our relationship” with allied Gulf nations, and accused the longtime U.S. allies of trying to benefit Russia.

“This decision is a turning point in our relationship with our Gulf partners,” the three lawmakers wrote. “If Saudi Arabia and the UAE hope to maintain a relationship with the United States that has been overwhelmingly beneficial to them, they must show a greater willingness to work with us—not against us—in advancing what is now our most urgent national security objective: the defeat of Russia’s aggression in Ukraine.”

They added, “Instead, by significantly boosting global oil prices, OPEC’s decision appears designed to increase Russia’s oil export revenues, enabling Putin to continue his war crimes in Ukraine, and undercutting Western sanctions,” echoing the concerns of Republicans when they opposed the closure of the Keystone XL pipeline.

1665155115939.png
The Keystone pumping station, into which the planned Keystone XL pipeline is to connect to, is seen in Steele City, Neb., Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2015. TransCanada, the company behind the project, said Monday it had asked the State Department to suspend its review of the Canada-to-Texas pipeline, citing uncertainties about the route it would take through Nebraska. (AP Photo/Nati Harnik)

In an Oct. 5 post announcing the bill, Malinowski wrote, “This is a hostile act by Saudi Arabia and the UAE, designed to hurt the United States and our allies and to help Russia, despite President Biden’s overtures.”

Several Democrats, and a handful of Republicans, agreed with the trio.

“Think it’s time we take back our Patriot batteries that are in Saudi Arabia,” Rep. Ruben Gallago (D-Ariz.) wrote in a Twitter post. “If they like the Russians so much, they can use their very ‘reliable’ military technology.”

Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) expressed the same sentiments in a Twitter thread.

“This unnecessary, self-destructive cut should spur a prompt far reaching review of our relationship w/Saudi Arabia,” Blumenthal wrote. “Especially as they try to ‘sports wash’ their international image in the wake of Jamal Khashoggi’s murder & the humanitarian disaster caused by their war in Yemen.”

He added: “The US must revisit & revise military supplies & sales, & other security aid to Saudi Arabia & rebalance this one-sided relationship. Saudi Arabia cannot turn to other defense suppliers unless they wish to partner with Russia, Iran, or China for far inferior systems.”

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), the Senate’s most prominent progressive, went a step further in an Oct. 5 post.

“OPEC’s decision to cutback on production is a blatant attempt to increase gas prices at the pump that cannot stand,” Sanders, who has long been vocal in his opposition to the fossil fuel industry, wrote. “We must end OPEC’s illegal price-fixing cartel, eliminate military assistance to Saudi Arabia, and move aggressively to renewable energy.”

Former U.S. Rep. Joe Walsh, an Illinois Republican, also agreed in a post.

“Every American President in my lifetime, Republican and Democrat, has obediently bowed to & curried favor with Saudi Arabia,” Walsh wrote. “This has got to [expletive] stop. The Saudis sided with Russia today. Our relationship with them must change immediately. We must treat them like an enemy.”

End of Part 1 of 2
 
Last edited:

northern watch

TB Fanatic
Part 2

Midterm Headache for Democrats

Democrats’ demands for action are unsurprising in light of the proximity of the midterm elections.

As Democrats prepare for a tough midterm battle, where observers expect Democrats to lose at least one chamber of Congress, the OPEC+ announcement is bad news.

Over the past few months gas prices—one of the biggest indicators of voting by moderates—have begun to drop from their zenith earlier this year.

1665155212967.png
Gas prices are advertised at a Chevron station as rising inflation and oil costs affect the consumers in Los Angeles, California, on June 13, 2022. (Lucy Nicholson/Reuters)

But less OPEC+ oil, at a time when the United States is also extracting substantially less of its own reserves than in the past, will almost certainly mean higher prices at the pump. Higher prices, in turn, could mean worse results for Democrats.

Republicans are already taking advantage of the moment to blame the situation on Biden’s energy policies and to call for the U.S. to ramp up its own energy production.


In a post, Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) did just that.

“Instead of increasing U.S. production, Joe Biden and administration officials begged Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, and Russia to produce more oil,” Kennedy wrote, citing efforts by Biden to get foreign nations to increase their oil production while substantially bottlenecking U.S. production. “These dictators ignored Biden’s pleas, slashed supply, and sent energy prices for Louisianians soaring.”

Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.) responded before OPEC+ even made the announcement.

In an Oct. 3 post, Blackburn wrote, “OPEC is reportedly considering cutting oil production by more than 1 million barrels a day, which would likely cause gas prices to skyrocket again.

“Why is the U.S. still relying on countries like Saudi Arabia and Mexico for oil?”

“Make America energy independent again,” Blackburn concluded her post.

‘Playing Americans for Idiots’

1665155276710.png
Pump jacks operate at dusk near Loco Hills in Eddy County, New Mexico, on April 23, 2020. (Paul Ratje/AFP via Getty Images)

Jim Carafano, the vice president for national security and foreign policy at the Heritage Foundation, was highly critical of the foreign policy outcomes that such a policy would bring about. Carafano accused Democrats floating the proposal of “playing Americans for idiots” and avoiding the true issue—Biden’s energy policies.

Rather than punishing Saudi Arabia and the UAE, Carafano told the Epoch Times, the proposed troop withdrawal would only embolden America’s adversaries.

“If the United States withdrew its military footprint for the Middle East, the number one beneficiaries of that would be Russia, Iran and China,” Carafano said. “So all of America’s enemies—the countries that go to sleep at night dreaming to wake up in the morning with a world without America—they would be the chief beneficiaries of this.

“So on its face, it’s a nonsensical policy that would actually completely compromise America’s vital interests,” he added.

Rather than blaming the Saudis and the UAE, Carafano said, Americans should look to the Oval Office to find the culprit for rising prices.

“Look, if you’re unhappy with [energy prices], the person that you should want to blame is in the White House,” Carafano said. “To blame the Saudis for for this and expect the Saudis essentially to pump oil and reduce their profits in order so Joe Biden can do better at the midterms—which is what Biden really cares about, he doesn’t really care about the price of gas. He cares about gas price reductions before the midterms so he can get Democrats elected.

“The whole world knows if the United States wants to influence the price of oil and gas, all they have to do is increase the production of oil and gas.”

‘Stabbing Saudis in the Back’

At the same time, Carafano contended, the Biden administration is “stabbing [Saudi Arabia] in the back” with its ongoing nuclear negotiations with Iran, which Carafano said would “not only not limit their nuclear project, but would actually enrich and empower the regime and give them a lot more money to go after everybody, including the Saudis.”

Carafano added: “I think the other thing the Saudis are doing is rightly embarrassing this president by saying, ‘Look, we all know that the reason why the price of oil and gas in the world is high is because the United States won’t produce more oil and gas.’

“So this is really about tit for tat politics. And, because the administration wants wants it both ways—they want to pretend like they are working to rid the world of oil and gas, but they don’t want to suffer the vote—the political pain of paying for that at the at the ballot box, because the price is high.

“So [Democrats] want other [nations] essentially to cover for them. And other people are saying, ‘Why should we do that? What have you done for us lately?'”

The bill, Carafano said, is not about Americans’ interest but Democrats’ political interests.

“This Democrat proposal is preposterous on its face,” Carafano said. “It’s detrimental to U.S. interests and it’s really not about protecting the American consumer or the American taxpayer. It’s about trying to get more more blue seats in Congress. This is reprehensible.

“This is this is political messaging legislation in the run up to the election to pretend that they’re doing something for consumers and taxpayers, but the chances of this actually ever being acted on are zero.”

He added, “What it really is, is it’s an incredible insult to the American people and to voters and essentially playing them for idiots. That’s what it is.”


Biden Begs for Dirtier Oil: Critic

In his comments to The Epoch Times, Kish also blamed the situation on Biden’s energy policies, and criticized Biden’s reliance on foreign, dirtier oil to save face among environmentalists at home.

“What’s so astounding about this is [Biden] runs around begging other people for more oil,” Kish said.

He then cited Biden’s plan to lift sanctions on the socialist nation of Venezuela, an oil rich nation but one with some of the dirtiest oil in the world. Recently, Biden has been trying to court Venezuela as part of the effort to get domestic energy prices under control.

At the same time, Kish noted, Biden has made a series of decisions that harm U.S. production and end in the U.S. taking oil from dirtier sources.

“Well, today the story is that Venezuela, you know, he’s gonna lift some impediments on Venezuelan oil coming to the United States,” Kish said. “And he does this after stopping Anwar—the Alaska pipeline—[which is now] running on a quarter of its capacity, 500,000 barrels a day versus two million barrels a day.

1665155369104.png
The Iranian oil tanker Fortune is anchored at the dock of the El Palito refinery near Puerto Cabello, Venezuela on May 25, 2020. (Ernesto Vargas/AP Photo)

“First thing he did when he came in was shut down Anwar. He shut down the Keystone XL Pipeline.

“Canada’s our largest supplier [of oil],” Kish continued. “And he [shut down the Anwar pipeline and reduced energy trade with Canada] because he said it wasn’t in the national interest because of the carbon dioxide that would come from the oil. And yet the oil that he wants to bring from Venezuela is the dirtiest oil in the world. It has more, much more carbon than oil sands from Canada.

The effects of Biden’s energy policies, Kish said, have been to “basically unilaterally disarm the United States.”

Specifically, Kish cited Biden’s controversial November 2021 decision to draw millions of barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, a reserve of oil intended for use in times of war or global calamity. Biden is currently pulling around one million barrels a day to keep U.S. prices under control.

“He’s taken our emergency supplies and sold them off so that he could get to election day,” Kish said. “And I mean, honestly, if you wanted to make a bigger mess of things, I don’t know how you would do it.”

The policies pushed by Biden and Democrats, Kish said, are more designed to appeal to radical environmentalists than to aid American citizens.

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Environmental activists protest against the proposed Keystone XL pipeline in front of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (SCIS) where former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is speaking on March 23, 2015. (NICHOLAS KAMM/AFP/Getty Images)

“Nothing [Democrats have done] with respect to energy has made any sense except on an ad hoc basis—it’s all politics,” Kish said. “It’s all you know, they want to appeal to their radical green base.”
Speaking on Democrats’ calls to pull out of the Gulf states, Kish was critical of the proposal.

“We don’t just put troops in other countries to help them—the reason we do it is to help ourselves,” Kish said. “So you know, I’m no expert on the foreign policy of things, but I know enough to know what those people are proposing is just plain stupid.”

‘Stop Playing Politics’

Instead, Kish called for the United States to reverse its current energy policies rather than playing “tit for tat politics” with Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Venezuela.

“The logical thing to do would be to stop doing all the bad things that [Biden has] done to domestic production of oil,” Kish said. “Instead of going to Venezuela—which, by the way, is the number one debtor nation to China—and allowing them to make payments to their loans with China with cash raised by selling oil in the United States, the dirtiest oil on the planet—Biden would instead go back to the Canadians and say, ‘You know, I made a big mistake. We need to build that pipeline. It’s good for the United States. It’s good for Canada. You’re our number one trading partner and ally. We speak the same language everything’s good.'”

Kish continued, “We can transport oil by pipeline, which is the way it should be because it’s the safest and best for the environment. But instead, they’re playing this game by cutting off supplies hoping that everybody will be forced to buy an electric car. Electric cars already cost too much for most Americans.”

Summing up his solution to the problem of rising energy costs, Kish said simply, “Drill, baby, drill, [and] build, baby, build.”

He added, “Do it here in North America—it makes our country stronger, makes our energy supplies safer, makes energy cheaper for Americans who are going to be suffering this winter—and stop pretending as though they’re somehow in charge of the weather and using that as an excuse to just reward their friends in the green energy business, which is exactly what they’re doing.

As far as environmental concerns go, Kish noted that U.S. oil is “the cleanest in the world.”

“There’s nobody close,” Kish said. “We produce it better here with less environmental degradation than anyplace in the world.”

Unlikely to Go Far

Ultimately, the legislation to withdraw U.S. troops from the Gulf states is unlikely to go far.

In the House, only a handful of Democrats have signed onto the measure. Republicans, in turn, have emphasized ramping up U.S. production rather than punishing the United States’ erstwhile allies.

Even if the legislation had a wide swath of support in the House, which seems unlikely, it would almost certainly fail in the Senate. In the upper chamber, which is on average more moderate than the House, it’s highly unlikely that the bill would be able to win enough bipartisan support to overcome the 60-vote filibuster threshold.

And even if it overcame that hurdle, Biden’s position on the move is unclear.

Democrats Float an End to US Troop Protection for Gulf Nations After OPEC+ Production Cut (theepochtimes.com)


End of Part 2 of 2
 
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northern watch

TB Fanatic
If the United States removes it's military from the Gulf, then expect to pay twice or thrice what you are paying now.

This is a big turning point in world affairs.

To quote one person "The US Dollar as a reserve currency could possibly be finished!!!"
 
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jward

passin' thru
Mike
@Doranimated

“They’re a problem,” Biden says of KSA. He came to office & vowed to make MbS “a pariah,”removed the Houthis from the terror list, released a report on Khashoggi, & began (& continues) to court Iran. We are a problem! We forgot how to maintain an alliance.
You can’t do all the things that he (& Obama before him) did to downgrade KSA in US foreign policy and then be outraged and affronted when they don’t take your calls. What do you expect? Perhaps Saudi bashing plays well to the Progressive base, but it harms the national interest.
To hold its position in the Middle East in an era of competition with China and a reduced US military footprint, Washington must get along with Israel, Turkey, KSA and Egypt. It can be done. It’s not hard, except that it requires a major paradigm shift (which is hard).
View: https://twitter.com/Doranimated/status/1578375059994877952?s=20&t=WHpGs2iGCW9a_DyoJ5Czaw
 

jward

passin' thru

US, UK hold drone drill in Persian Gulf after Iran seizures​

US, UK hold drone drill in Persian Gulf after Iran seizures​


Jon Gambrell

4-5 minutes



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A Saildrone Explorer takes part in a joint U.S. and U.K. naval drone drill in the Persian Gulf Friday. The drill tested the same unmanned surveillance boats that Iran has twice seized in recent months. (MCC Roland Franklin/Navy via AP)
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — The U.S. Navy held a joint drone drill with the United Kingdom on Friday in the Persian Gulf, testing the same unmanned surveillance ships that Iran twice has seized in recent months in the Middle East.
The exercise comes as the U.S. Navy separately told commercial shippers in the wider Mideast that it would continue using drones in the region and warned against interfering with their operations.
The drone drill — and the American pledge to keep sailing them — also comes as tensions between the U.S. and Iran on the seas remain high amid stalled negotiations over its tattered nuclear deal with world powers and as protests sweep the Islamic Republic.

Friday’s drill involved two American and two British warships in the Persian Gulf, as well as three Saildrone Explorers, said Cmdr. Timothy Hawkins, a spokesman for the Navy’s Mideast-based 5th Fleet.
The drones searched for a target on the seas, then sent the still images its cameras captured back to both the warships and the 5th Fleet’s command center in the island kingdom of Bahrain. There, an artificial intelligence system worked through the photos.
The 5th Fleet launched its unmanned Task Force 59 last year. Drones used by the Navy include ultra-endurance aerial surveillance drones, surface ships like the Sea Hawk and the Sea Hunter and smaller underwater drones that resemble torpedoes.
But of particular interest for the Navy has been the Saildrone Explorer, a commercially available drone that can stay at sea for long periods of time. That’s crucial for a region that has some 5,000 miles of coastline from the Suez Canal, down the Red Sea to the Gulf of Oman, the Strait of Hormuz and into the Persian Gulf.
It’s a vast territory that stretches the reach of the Navy and its allies and has seen a series of attacks amid the atomic accord’s collapse. It also remains crucial to global shipping and energy supplies, as a fifth of all oil traded passes through the Strait of Hormuz.
A U.S. Navy Saildrone Explorer unmanned sea drone navigates the Gulf of Aqaba on Feb. 9. (MC2 Dawson Roth/Navy via AP)
“No matter what forces you have, you can’t cover all that,” Hawkins told The Associated Press. “You have to do that in a partnered way and an innovative way.”
But Iran, which long has equated America’s presence in the region to it patrolling the Gulf of Mexico, views the drones with suspicion. In August and September, Iranian regular and paramilitary forces seized Saildrones in both the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea, alleging without providing evidence that the drones posed a danger to nearby ships.
Iran ultimately released the drones after the U.S. Navy arrived to the sites. Cameras on the Saildrones involved in the Red Sea incident went missing.

Iranian state-run media did not acknowledge the drill Friday. Iran’s mission to the United Nations did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
“Recent events notwithstanding, we have been operating these systems safely, responsibly and in accordance with international law and will continue to do so,” Hawkins said.
The Navy underscored its plan to keep operating the drones in notices sent to shippers and sailors in the region beginning Thursday. It said that the drones would continue to broadcast their location via their Automatic Identification System trackers.

Ships are supposed to keep their AIS trackers on, but Iranian vessels routinely turn theirs off to mask their movements as Tehran faces international sanctions over its nuclear program and human rights abuses.
“U.S. Navy (drones) are U.S. government property and will lawfully operate in international waters and through straits in accordance with internationally recognized rights and freedoms,” the Navy said in the notice. “Any interference with U.S. Navy (drones) will be considered a violation of the norms of international maritime law.”
 
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