WAR Main Persian Gulf Trouble thread

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Israel Radar
@IsraelRadar_com


Iran's supreme leader Khamenei cancelled all public appearances due to illness, is currently under medical observation, @kann_new reports; full details about his health condition unknown at this time.


12:03 PM · Sep 16, 2022·Twitter Web App

Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei Gravely Ill – The NYT​

People familiar with Iran’s Supreme Leader health situation say Ali Khamenei is gravely ill and is currently on bed rest under observation by a team of doctors, the New York Times reported.
The newspaper on Friday quoted four people familiar with Khamenei’s health condition as saying that all his meetings are cancelled while there have been numerous rumors about his death on social media in recent days.
Iran International had earlier reported about Khamenei absence from the public scene since the beginning of this month, while some pundits said separately that Khamenei has given Raisi authority to make decision over Iran’s nuclear talks with the West.
The octogenarian leader had surgery at a clinic set up at his home and office complex some time last week for bowel obstruction after suffering extreme stomach pains and high fever, one of the people said.
One of the sources said he is currently being monitored around the clock by a team of doctors, claiming that his condition was critical last week, but has improved, and he is currently resting.
The Iranian government has not denied social media reports circulating for more than a week about Khamenei's illness. Meanwhile, his office cancelled two scheduled meetings with the Assembly of Experts members and Basij militia during the past days.
In another development, a picture released by the official news agency IRNA last week about Khamenei's meeting with athletes, turned out to be at last three years old and the agency pulled the story.
 

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https://twitter.com/vcdgf555
Evergreen Intel
@vcdgf555
10m

Part one. The beating and murder of Kurdish 22 year-old Jina Mahsa Amini by Iranian "Morality" Police in Tehran
View: https://twitter.com/vcdgf555/status/1571148815708856324?s=20&t=ya20yC_b0FrSxyhQJHemew


Part two. Unrest swells as the news of Jina Amini's death (for which her only "crime" was her hijab was worn "improperly) spreads within the Kurdish community in Iran.
View: https://twitter.com/vcdgf555/status/1571149328164737025?s=20&t=ya20yC_b0FrSxyhQJHemew


Part three. Iranian security forces allegedly shooting protesters who came out in support (and ultimately anger) for the senseless death if Jina Amini. Here, a wounded man is taken off the street to cover. His condition is unknown.
View: https://twitter.com/vcdgf555/status/1571149962054103043?s=20&t=ya20yC_b0FrSxyhQJHemew


Part four. Internet connectivity is down across Iran by 1/3 as protests continue to be met with violence. It is highly likely that Iran is trying to prevent news of the crackdown from leaking as well as attempting to disrupt coordination via social media.
View: https://twitter.com/vcdgf555/status/1571151236996689920?s=20&t=ya20yC_b0FrSxyhQJHemew
Erfan Fard
@EQfard
52m

Today in #Saqez; the Islamic #Terrorist thugs murdered innocent people in #Iran. After the burial ceremony, clashes broke out between people & security forces. Several citizens were injured as the result of direct shooting. It turns #MahsaAmini's funeral into a blood bath.
View: https://twitter.com/EQfard/status/1571140514195574785?s=20&t=ya20yC_b0FrSxyhQJHemew
 

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Yaghoub Fazeli
@y_fazeli
22m

Large crowds in the streets of Sanandaj today as protests sparked by the killing of Mahsa (Jina) Amini continue for the second consecutive day in the provincial capital of #Iran's Kurdistan province.
View: https://twitter.com/y_fazeli/status/1571533864828370944?s=20&t=OfsknjUu9DpyBiGlDp7gpw







Happened during burial of #Mahsa_Amini who was murdered by #Iranian Islamic Police over not covering her hair in public. A Sunni cleric wanted to pray for her and a family member of Mahsa protested him & told him: "Your Islam killed our Mahsa. Take your Islam & leave here".
View: https://twitter.com/BabakTaghvaee/status/1571537758749077504?s=20&t=OfsknjUu9DpyBiGlDp7gpw
 

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Eight reported killed as Iran protests spread over woman's death - Insider Paper​




At least eight people have been killed by Wednesday in a crackdown on protests in Iran over the death of Mahsa Amini after the young woman was arrested by morality police, according to a combined toll.
Public anger has flared in the Islamic republic since authorities on Friday announced the death of 22-year-old Amini, who had been held for allegedly wearing a hijab headscarf in an “improper” way.
Activists said the woman, whose Kurdish first name is Jhina, had suffered a fatal blow to the head, a claim denied by officials who have announced an investigation.
Some women demonstrators have defiantly taken off their hijabs and burned them in bonfires or symbolically cut their hair before cheering crowds, video footage spread virally on social media has shown.
“No to the headscarf, no to the turban, yes to freedom and equality!” protesters in Tehran were heard chanting in a rally that has been echoed by solidarity protests abroad, including in New York and Istanbul.
Iranian state media reported on Wednesday that, in a fifth night of street rallies that had spread to 15 cities, police used tear gas and made arrests to disperse crowds of up to 1,000 people.

London-based rights group Article 19 said it was “deeply concerned by reports of the unlawful use of force by Iranian police and security forces” including the use of live ammunition.
Demonstrators hurled stones at security forces, set fire to police vehicles and garbage bins and chanted anti-government slogans, the official IRNA news agency said, adding that rallies were held in cities including Mashhad, Tabriz, Isfahan and Shiraz.
“Death to the dictator” and “Woman, life, freedom”, protesters could be heard shouting in video footage that spread beyond Iran, despite online restrictions reported by internet access monitor Netblocks.
Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei spoke publicly without mentioning the spreading unrest on Wednesday, before ultra-conservative President Ebrahim Raisi began addressing the UN General Assembly in New York.
Also at the UN, British Foreign Secretary James Cleverly told AFP that “the Iranian leadership should notice that the people are unhappy with the direction that they have taken. There is another path that they could take.”

– ‘Significant shock’ –​

The wave of protests over Amini’s death “is a very significant shock, it is a societal crisis,” said Iran expert David Rigoulet-Roze of the French Institute for International and Strategic Affairs.
“It is difficult to know the outcome but there is a disconnect between the authorities with their DNA of the Islamic revolution of 1979 and an increasingly secularised society.
“It is a whole social project that is being called into question. There is a hesitation among the authorities on the way forward with regard to this movement.”
Protests first erupted Friday in Amini’s home province of Kurdistan, where governor Ismail Zarei Koosha said Tuesday three people had been killed in “a plot by the enemy”.
Kurdistan police commander Ali Azadi on Wednesday announced the death of another person, according to Tasnim news agency.
Two more protesters “were killed during the riots” in Kermanshah province, the region’s prosecutor Shahram Karami was quoted as saying by Fars news agency, blaming “counter-revolutionary agents”.
Additionally, the Norway-based Kurdish rights group Hengaw said two protesters, aged 16 and 23, had been killed overnight in West Azerbaijan province.
An additional 450 people had been wounded and 500 arrested, the group said — figures that could not be independently verified.

– ‘Enemy plot’ –​

Video spread online showing security forces opening fire on protesters in the southern city of Shiraz, where protests continued into the early hours of the morning.
Amini’s death and Iran’s response to the protests have sparked condemnation from the United Nations, United States, France and other countries.
The protests are among the most serious in Iran since November 2019 unrest over fuel price rises.
Foreign ministry spokesman Nasser Kanani on Tuesday condemned what he called “foreign interventionist positions”.
“It is regrettable that some countries try to take advantage of an incident under investigation as an opportunity to pursue their political goals and desires against the government and people of Iran,” he said.
Iran’s Telecommunications Minister Issa Zarepour on Wednesday warned of internet restrictions, citing the “security issues of these days,” ISNA news agency said.
Article 19 said it was “alarmed by the local internet shutdowns”, recalling that in 2019 authorities had “used the darkness of a shutdown to kill, maim and arrest protesters and bystanders with impunity”.
 

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Jason Brodsky
@JasonMBrodsky
2h

If the IRGC's Sarallah Headquarters is being deployed, that means #Iran's crackdown will be entering a new stage in intensity that requires reinforcements to first layer of a police response
View: https://twitter.com/JasonMBrodsky/status/1573749445539274755?s=20&t=7GVJsEjPPWX3TfOtDHVXzQ




The Cavell Group
@TCG_CrisisRisks
7h

Iran: Escalation in civil unrest and demonstrations across the country with protesters seizing some towns after security forces withdrew. Live rounds used to disperse demonstrators in other areas. Fatalities and casualties reported. Mobile network and widespread internet outages
View: https://twitter.com/TCG_CrisisRisks/status/1573459908850114561?s=20&t=dJ-XGRgQ_Ugsz01nDH6ahg
 

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Critical Threats
@criticalthreats


Uncorroborated reports suggest that #Iran is mobilizing its proxies to suppress ongoing #MahsaAmini protests. If true, #proxy participation may indicate that Iran fears disloyalty among security personnel and requires additional manpower to quell unrest. 1/4 #IranProtests

Social media users reported that #Iranian leadership is seeking to mobilize 4,000 #Hezbollah members to participate in Iranian domestic protest suppression. CTP cannot independently corroborate these reports. 2/4
View: https://twitter.com/criticalthreats/status/1573743303341785093?s=20&t=7GVJsEjPPWX3TfOtDHVXzQ


This isn't the first time we're hearing these reports: #Iranian leadership has long been suspected of deploying proxies to support security forces' crackdowns in prior protest waves, like the 2009 Green Movement. 3/4
View: https://twitter.com/criticalthreats/status/1573743305678020615?s=20&t=7GVJsEjPPWX3TfOtDHVXzQ


#Iran has previously demonstrated its willingness to import proxies to assist with other domestic challenges. The #IRGC Quds Force deployed the #Fatemiyoun and #Iraqi groups to southwestern Iran in April 2019 to assist in disaster relief, for example. 4/4
View: https://twitter.com/criticalthreats/status/1573743307745857538?s=20&t=7GVJsEjPPWX3TfOtDHVXzQ


1:36 PM · Sep 24, 2022·Twitter Web App
 

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Apex
@Apex_WW
2h

Telegraph: Iran has recruited extremist foreign militias to help “wipe out rioters from the streets of Tehran.”









Aleph א
@no_itsmyturn
3h

Remember, always remember, if the Iranian regime gets overthrown, Putin's Russia won't have Mohajer-6 and Shahed-136 UAVs as well. A Mullah-free Iran, is not just good for Iranians, but it's for the whole world. #IranProtests
 

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https://twitter.com/criticalthreats/photo
Critical Threats
@criticalthreats

An @AEI project focused on understanding threats and tracking global challenges | Contact us: criticalthreats@aei.org | Media requests: mediaservices@aei.org

Non-Governmental & Nonprofit Organization criticalthreats.org
Joined January 2010
750 Following
49.9K Followers



Followed by Military Lab, OSINT Aggregator, and 52 others you follow

Key #Iranian military leaders may be endorsing President Ebrahim #Raisi to succeed Ali #Khamenei as #Iran’s next supreme leader. Here is what happened and why it matters: (1/8)

Senior Iranian military officials published an open letter praising Raisi’s #UN General Assembly address on 9/21. These letters are rare and used by officials to signify their political positions to the wider regime. Some of the #IRGC’s senior commanders signed this letter. (2/8)

These IRGC commanders include a tight circle of senior officers who often influence and intervene in domestic politics to promote their hardline agendas. They have established the IRGC as the most dominant actor in Iran. Read more here: (3/8)
criticalthreats.org/wp-content/upl…

This endorsement coincides with reports of Supreme Leader #Khamenei’s declining health, sparking an intra-regime debate over who will succeed him. This letter indicates that the military leadership may support Raisi as the next supreme leader. (4/8)


Iran’s Supreme Leader Cancels Public Appearances After Falling Ill Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is on bed rest and under observation by a team of doctors, according to four people familiar with his health situation. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/16/...ytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare

Supreme Leader Raisi would likely pursue similar, if not more aggressive, policies than Khamenei’s. Raisi is just as radical as Khamenei, if not more so, and has a long history of persecuting political dissent and consolidating the regime’s power. (5/8)

Supreme Leader Raisi would also be initially weaker than Khamenei. Raisi would reckon with the IRGC’s influence and power without Khamenei’s gravitas and ties to the IRGC's formation. Raisi may struggle to command or constrain the IRGC as effectively as Khamenei. (6/8)

The support of the IRGC’s leadership could help Raisi overcome Mojtaba Khamenei—the son of Ali Khamenei—in the race to become supreme leader. Mojtaba is another frontrunner for succession alongside Raisi. (7/8)

Read the @criticalthreats assessment on how Iran could transform after Khamenei here: (8/8)


Iran after Ali Khamenei: Forecasting Trajectories Iran after Ali Khamenei: Forecasting Trajectories

• • •
 

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Insider Paper
@TheInsiderPaper
4h

NEW - Iran has arrested the daughter of ex-president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani for inciting protests - Tasnim News
 

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Aleph א
@no_itsmyturn
1h

An IRGC terror commander confirms that they've launched 73 ballistic missiles towards the Iraqi Kurdistan region.
 
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