WAR Main Persian Gulf Trouble thread

jward

passin' thru
From earlier this month...

Iran Plans Global Wave of Attacks on Israel, Analyst Says
February 1, 2021


Iran to focus on Israeli targets beyond the Middle East while blurring the connection to Tehran, veteran analyst warns.
Iran Plans Global Wave of Attacks on Israel, Analyst Says 1

Wave of attacks on Israel soon? (Archive: Pixabay)

The explosion near the Israeli embassy in New Delhi is the opening shot in an Iranian wave of global attacks, Mideast analyst Yoni Ben-Menachem warns. Tehran now feels that conditions are ripe to avenge the killing of nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, he wrote.
Iran is expected to carry out more attacks against Israeli targets abroad in a way that can’t be traced back to Tehran. The Iranians will not be using their regional proxies as not to harm their ties with the Biden administration or trigger a military response by Israel, the veteran analyst said.

Security officials estimate that the New Delhi bombers are trying to mislead investigators with bogus claims of responsibility. A letter left at the scene said that the attack was carried out by “India Hezbollah” to avenge the killing of Iranian leaders.
The message threatened the Israeli ambassador to India and warned that he’s under constant surveillance, Channel 13 reported. The small explosion near the embassy was only a “trailer,” and Israel should prepare for more significant acts of revenge for the death of “martyrs” Fakhrizadeh and Qasem Soleimani, the letter said.

Signal to Israel and US?
The bombing was meant to signal that Iran can carry out serious attacks against Israeli and US targets but avoids this for now, military analyst Ron Ben-Yishai wrote. This is yet another pressure tactic used by Iran to secure better terms in the upcoming negotiations on a nuclear deal, he said.
Meanwhile, Israeli and Indian investigators continue to probe the New Delhi blast. Mossad is trying to trace foreign nationals possibly involved in the plot, and an Israeli security team headed to India to assess the threat level to embassy staff, Maariv daily reported.
Defense officials are also concerned about a suspicious box found under an Israeli diplomat’s car in Paris in recent days. The object, which reportedly resembled a bomb, did not contain any explosives but may have been planted to convey another threatening message to Israel.

 

northern watch

TB Fanatic
Saudi TV says missile or drone intercepted over Riyadh
Saudi Arabia says it has intercepted an apparent missile or drone attack over its capital, Riyadh, amid the kingdom’s yearslong war against Yemen’s Houthi rebels
ByThe Associated Press
23 January 2021, 07:16

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates -- Saudi Arabia said Saturday it intercepted an apparent missile or drone attack over its capital, Riyadh, amid the kingdom's yearslong war against neighboring Yemen's Houthi rebels.

Social media users posted video of what appeared to be an explosion in the air over Riyadh. Saudi state TV quoted authorities in the kingdom acknowledging the interception.

Yahia Sarei, a military spokesman for the Houthis, said in a brief statement that the rebels had not carried out attacks on Saudi Arabia in the past 24 hours. The U.S. Embassy in Riyadh issued a warning to Americans calling on them to “stay alert in case of additional future attacks.”

The Houthis have held Yemen's capital and the north, where the majority of the population lives, since September 2014. Saudi Arabia and its allies launched a war against them in March 2015 in support of Yemen's internationally recognized government.

The war has been mired in a stalemate for years. Riyadh has been targeted in sporadic missile attacks in that time, while the Houthis also have launched missile and drone strikes. The Saudi-led coalition has faced widespread international criticism for airstrikes that have killed hundreds of civilians and hit non-military targets, including schools, hospitals and wedding parties.

Western experts, Saudi Arabia and the U.S. say Iran has supplied arms, including ballistic missiles, to the Houthis. Iran denies that, although devices in the weapons link back to Tehran.

Saudi TV says missile or drone intercepted over Riyadh - ABC News (go.com)
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Posted for fair use.....

Fighting intensifies in Yemen's Marib

Issued on: 27/02/2021 - 20:50
Modified: 27/02/2021 - 20:48

Saudi-backed Yemeni government troops earlier this month  engaged in clashes with Huthi rebels pushing an offensive on oil-rich Marib, some 120 kilometres (75 miles) east of Yemen's rebel-held capital Sanaa

Saudi-backed Yemeni government troops earlier this month engaged in clashes with Huthi rebels pushing an offensive on oil-rich Marib, some 120 kilometres (75 miles) east of Yemen's rebel-held capital Sanaa - AFP/File


3 min

Abu Dhabi (AFP)

Clashes between Yemeni government forces and Huthi rebels intensified Saturday in the strategic province of Marib, with military sources saying a senior loyalist commander was among dozens of fighters killed.

Earlier this month, the Iran-backed Huthis resumed a push to capture Marib city, which lies close to some of Yemen's richest oil fields in the north of the country.

Hundreds of fighters from both sides were killed in fighting since Friday, according to government sources. The Huthis do not usually release casualty tolls.

"Twenty-two members of the government forces and more than 28 rebels have died in the last 24 hours in the fighting," including special forces commander in Marib General Abdel Ghani Shaalan, a military source said.

"Fighting continues unabated on all fronts in Marib province" -- the government's last bastion in the north of the country -- the source said, adding that neither side had made any advance on the ground.

The Saudi-led coalition backing the internationally recognised government launched more than 12 air strikes in support of government forces, according to the Huthi-run Al Masirah TV channel.

On Friday, more than 60 fighters were killed in fighting in Marib, the bloodiest day since the start of the offensive on February 8.

The government meanwhile accused the Huthis of firing 10 ballistic missiles Friday night on Marib city, the official Saba news agency reported, with no reports of casualties.

And on Saturday, multiple blasts shook the Saudi capital Riyadh, with state television saying the Saudi-led coalition had thwarted a "Huthi ballistic missile attack".

The Huthis did not confirm the claim, but they have carried out cross-border attacks on Saudi Arabia with drones and missiles in the past.

- 'Civilians at risk' -

Yemen has been plagued by violence since 2014, after Huthi rebels seized the capital Sanaa, forcing the government to move its base to the southern port of Aden.

The Huthis now control most of the country's north and the government has been struggling to defend Marib province and the city.

The United Nations, which says Yemen is facing the world's worst humanitarian crisis, last week warned of a potential humanitarian disaster if the fight for Marib continues.
Until early last year, life in Marib was relatively peaceful, despite war raging elsewhere in the Arabian Peninsula country.

With its proximity to the Saudi border, the province was largely untouched by the first years of conflict and even flourished, as those who sought sanctuary there opened businesses and restaurants.

The UN now says the fighting has put "millions of civilians at risk".

The upsurge in violence this month comes after Washington decided to remove the Huthis from its list of terrorist groups to ensure aid is unimpeded and to pave the way toward restarting peace talks.

Observers say the Huthis want to capture Marib as leverage before entering into any negotiations.

US envoy Tim Lenderking headed Monday to the region on a tour of Gulf countries, as he seeks ways to end Yemen's brutal war.

His discussions "will focus on the United States' dual-track approach to end the conflict in Yemen: a lasting political solution and humanitarian relief for the Yemeni people", a statement from the State Department said, without specifying his exact stops.

Yemen's grinding conflict has claimed tens of thousands of lives and displaced millions, according to international organisations.

© 2021 AFP
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Posted for fair use.....

Spokesman Gives Details of Yemen Strike on Saudi Arabia
  • February, 28, 2021 - 12:36
TEHRAN (Tasnim) – The spokesman for Yemen’s army provided more details of a recent attack on targets in Saudi Arabia’s capital, Riyadh.

Speaking to Al Masirah TV, Brigadier General Yahya Saree said the Yemeni forces have targeted several sensitive sites in Riyadh in a major operation that lasted from Saturday night until Sunday morning.

Zulfaqar ballistic missiles and 15 pilotless aircraft were employed in the strike, he added.

Saree said six Qasef-2K drones were also flown to hit major military targets in Saudi Arabia’s Abha and Khamis Mushait.

The spokesman underlined that such retaliatory attacks will go on as long as the Saudi enemy continues the acts of aggression and blockade of Yemen.

The Yemeni general warned Saudi citizens to stay away from military airports and bases, which are potential targets for strikes.

When Saudi Arabia and a number of its regional allies launched the war on Yemen in March 2015, their objective was to bring fugitive former president Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi, a staunch ally of Riyadh, back to power and crush Ansarullah. The goal of the deadly campaign has not materialized.

Houthi Ansarullah fighters have been of significant help to the Yemeni army in defending the country against the invaders, leaving the coalition forces bogged down in Yemen.

More than 110,000 Yemenis have been killed since the onset of war.

At least 80 percent of the 28-million-strong population is reliant on aid to survive in what the UN has called the world’s worst humanitarian crisis.

The war has destroyed or closed half of Yemen’s hospitals and clinics, leaving the people helpless particularly at a time when they are in desperate need of medical supplies to fight the COVID-19 pandemic.

-------------------------------------

Posted for fair use.....

Yemen rebels claim Riyadh strikes, threaten new attacks

Sunday, 28 Feb 2021 05:56 PM MYT

SANAA, Feb 28 — Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels claimed today the attempted strikes that targeted the Saudi Arabian capital Riyadh and other regions overnight, threatening more attacks.

“The operation was carried out with a ballistic missile and 15 drones... targeting sensitive areas in the enemy’s capital of Riyadh,” said Houthi spokesman Yahya al-Saree, according to the rebels’ Al-Masirah TV channel.


“Our operations will continue and will expand as long as the aggression and seige on our country continues.”

A Saudi-led military coalition — which has been backing the Yemeni government against the rebels since 2015 — said yesterday it thwarted a Houthi ballistic missile that targeted Riyadh.

Fragments of the missile scattered over several Riyadh neighbourhoods, damaging at least one home but no casualties were reported, Saudi’s state-run Al-Ekhbariya television said.

Separately, the coalition said it had intercepted six Houthi drones targeting the kingdom, including the southern cities of Khamis Mushait and Jizan.

Saree on Sunday claimed those attacks as well, warning residents in the region to “stay clear from all military airports and sites”.

The Houthis have escalated attacks on the kingdom, while they step up an offensive to seize the Yemeni government’s last northern stronghold of Marib.

Years of bombings have failed to shake the rebels’ hold on Yemen’s capital Sanaa, and they have steadily expanded their reach in the country’s north.

Yemen’s grinding conflict has claimed tens of thousands of lives and displaced millions, according to international organisations, sparking what the UN calls the world’s worst humanitarian crisis. — AFP
 

bobfall2005

Veteran Member
I was in Jerusalem 11 years ago.
Worst kept secret.
Saudi economic, foreign, and defense reps going to meetings.
Sometimes a full blown minister.
Along with other arab countries.

US reps joining the meetings.
These visits go back. Way back.
 

jward

passin' thru
Thanks for that, Bob. I had wondered, but never knew what voice to believe.
I was in Jerusalem 11 years ago.
Worst kept secret.
Saudi economic, foreign, and defense reps going to meetings.
Sometimes a full blown minister.
Along with other arab countries.

US reps joining the meetings.
These visits go back. Way back.
 

northern watch

TB Fanatic
Syria reports Israeli missile attack near capital, Damascus
Syrian state media is reporting that the country's air defenses were activated in the capital Damascus and its southern suburbs to repel an Israeli missile attack

By The Associated Press
28 February 2021, 12:56

DAMASCUS, Syria -- Syrian air defenses were activated in the capital Damascus and its southern suburbs Sunday night to repel an Israeli missile attack, state media reported. There was no word on casualties.

State TV quoted an unnamed military official as saying that most of the Israeli missiles were shot down before reaching their targets near Damascus.

Israel has launched hundreds of strikes against Iran-linked military targets in Syria over the years, but rarely acknowledges or discusses such operations.

Israel views Iranian entrenchment on its northern frontier as a red line, and it has repeatedly struck Iran-linked facilities and weapons convoys destined for Lebanon’s militant Hezbollah group
.

The attack comes after the United States launched airstrikes in Syria on Thursday, targeting facilities near the Iraqi border used by Iranian-backed militia groups.

The Pentagon said the strikes were retaliation for a rocket attack in Iraq earlier this month that killed one civilian contractor and wounded a U.S. service member and other coalition troops.

Syria reports Israeli missile attack near capital, Damascus - ABC News (go.com)
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Posted for fair use.....



Israel said to hit Iranian targets in Syria after Tehran blamed for ship blast
Syrian state media claims air defenses shot down several missiles; Hebrew media outlets indicate raid a retaliation for explosion that hit Israeli-owned vessel in Gulf of Oman

By TOI staff 28 February 2021, 11:07 pm
Updated at 11:57 pm 4


Footage from Syrian state media said to show air defense missiles being fired near Damascus in response to Israeli strikes, February 28, 2021. (Screen capture: Twitter)
Footage from Syrian state media said to show air defense missiles being fired near Damascus in response to Israeli strikes, February 28, 2021. (Screen capture: Twitter)



Syrian state media reported Sunday that air defense systems were activated around Damascus due to an Israeli attack. A report carried on the official SANA news agency claimed the Syrian military intercepted several Israeli missiles.

There was no comment on the reported strikes from the Israel Defense Forces, which rarely acknowledges specific attacks.


Israel’s Kan News, Channel 13 News and Ma’ariv newspaper all described the strikes as targeting Iranian sites, and characterized them as a response to a blast last week that hit an Israeli-owned ship in the Gulf of Oman, which Israeli officials have said was likely carried out by Iran.
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None of the outlets provided sourcing for their reports.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a Britain-based war monitor which has had its credibility questioned in the past, said the strike hit the area of Sayyida Zeinab south of Damascus, where the Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the Lebanese terror group Hezbollah are present.
סוכנות הידיעות הסורית: מערכות ההגנה האוויריות הצליחו להפיל כמה מהטילים הישראליים@HaimOmri pic.twitter.com/xKmSK4SPkh
— כאן חדשות (@kann_news) February 28, 2021
Kan had earlier reported that leaders of Israel’s security establishment met on Sunday evening to discuss the alleged Iranian attack on the MV Helios Ray.

Defense Minister Benny Gantz said on Saturday he believed Iran was behind the explosion Thursday. On Sunday IDF Chief of Staff Aviv Kohavi called the explosion that hit the Helios Ray a “reminder” from Iran.

“This is the place to reiterate that the IDF acts and will act against the threats that endanger [Israel], near and far,” he said during a ceremony.

Israel has launched hundreds to thousands of raids in the country since the start of the Syrian civil war in 2011, most of which were directed against Iran and its proxies. The last attack in Syria attributed to the Jewish state was on February 15.

The latest reported strike also came after the US military launched strikes Thursday on Iranian-backed militia groups in Syria, in retaliation for a recent rocket attack in Iraq that killed one civilian contractor and wounded a US service member and other coalition troops.

Agencies contributed to this report.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Posted for fair use.....

Netanyahu accuses Iran of attacking Israeli-owned cargo ship

By ILAN BEN ZION
54 minutes ago

JERUSALEM (AP) — Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday accused Iran of attacking an Israeli-owned ship in the Gulf of Oman last week, a mysterious explosion that further spiked security concerns in the region.

Without offering any evidence to his claim, Netanyahu told Israeli public broadcaster Kan that “it was indeed an act by Iran, that’s clear.”

“Iran is the greatest enemy of Israel, I am determined to halt it. We are hitting it in the entire region,” Netanyahu said. Iran promptly dismissed the charges.

The blast struck the Israeli-owned MV Helios Ray, a Bahamian-flagged roll-on, roll-off vehicle cargo ship, as it was sailing out of the Middle East on its way to Singapore on Friday. The crew was unharmed, but the vessel sustained two holes on its port side and two on its starboard side just above the waterline, according to American defense officials.

The ship came to Dubai’s port for repairs on Sunday, days after the blast that revived security concerns in Mideast waterways amid heightened tensions with Iran.

Iran has sought to pressure the U.S. to lift sanctions on Tehran as President Joe Biden’s administration considers option for returning to negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program. Biden has said repeatedly the U.S. would return to the nuclear deal between Tehran and world powers that his predecessor, Donald Trump, withdrew from in 2018 only after Iran restores its full compliance with the accord.

The explosion on the Israeli-owned ship last week recalled the tense summer of 2019, when the U.S. military accused Iran of attacking several oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman with limpet mines, designed to be attached magnetically to a ship’s hull. The Gulf of Oman leads through the narrow Strait of Hormuz, a vital passage for the world’s oil supplies. Tehran has denied the accusations that it was behind the limpet mine attacks.

It remains unclear what caused Friday’s blast on the Helios Ray. The vessel had discharged cars at various ports in the Persian Gulf before the explosion forced it to reverse course. Over the weekend, Israel’s defense minister and army chief had both indicated they held Iran responsible for what they said was an attack on the vessel.

Iran responded to Netanyahu’s statement saying it “strongly rejected” the claim that it was behind the attack. In a press briefing, Foreign Ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh said Netanyahu was “suffering from an obsession with Iran” and described his charges as “fear-mongering.”

Khatibzadeh also accused Israel of taking “suspicious actions in the region” against Iran in recent months to undermine the 2015 nuclear deal, without elaborating, and vowed Iran would respond.

“Israel knows very well that our response in the field of national security has always been fierce and accurate,” he said.

Overnight, Syrian state media reported a series of alleged Israeli airstrikes near Damascus, saying air defense systems had intercepted most of the missiles. Israeli media reports said the alleged airstrikes were on Iranian targets in response to the ship attack.

Israel has struck hundreds of Iranian targets in neighboring Syria in recent years, and Netanyahu has repeatedly said Israel will not accept a permanent Iranian military presence there. Iran and its Lebanese proxy Hezbollah have provided military support to Syrian President Bashar Assad in the more than decade-long Syrian civil war.

The Israeli military declined comment.

Iran also has blamed Israel for a recent series of attacks, including another mysterious explosion last summer that destroyed an advanced centrifuge assembly plant at its Natanz nuclear facility and the killing of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, a top Iranian scientist who founded the Islamic Republic’s military nuclear program two decades ago. Iran has repeatedly vowed to avenge Fakhrizadeh’s killing.

“It is most important that Iran doesn’t have nuclear weapons, with or without an agreement, this I also told to my friend Biden,” Netanyahu said Monday.

Iranian threats of retaliation have raised alarms in Israel since the signing of normalization deals with the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain in September.

___

Associated Press writers Isabel DeBre in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, and Nasser Karimi in Tehran, Iran, contributed to this report.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
On another front, the "60 Minutes" broadcast last night covered the Soliemani "hit" and Iranian missile attack in reply.

Besides going into method and means, they in doing so made it clear in the segment that the Iranians were going for a mass body count with the attack on the airbase and that the Trump Admin did everything possible in the time frame involved to avoid that.

The timing on this broadcast makes me wonder "just a tad bit" as to "who" is setting the stage for "what" to occur next?
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Hummm........

Posted for fair use......

How Biden’s best-laid plans for Iran and Saudi Arabia failed in his first month

President Biden hasn’t handled Iran and Saudi Arabia like candidate Biden planned.

By Alex Ward@AlexWardVoxalex.ward@vox.com Mar 1, 2021, 4:20pm EST

President Joe Biden’s first month handling Iran and Saudi Arabia shows the new administration has succumbed to a classic problem: Initial plans and promises made during a campaign rarely survive once you’re actually governing.

As the Democratic candidate, Biden promised a swift return to the Iran nuclear deal. He then aimed to leverage that negotiation to curb other aspects of Tehran’s aggressive behavior — like its growing ballistic missile program — in follow-on chats.

But in the Oval Office, the president has found the Islamic Republic resistant to diplomacy — but willing to have proxies launch rockets at Americans in the Middle East. That led Biden to authorize a retaliatory strike in Syria against those militants, hoping that would deter future attacks while keeping the door open for talks.

And on the campaign trail, Biden called Saudi Arabia a “pariah” state, vowing to make it “pay the price” for human rights violations, including the grisly 2018 murder of dissident, US resident, and columnist Jamal Khashoggi.

Though he released an unclassified intelligence report on Friday directly blaming Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman for the killing, Biden declined to punish the nation’s de facto ruler outright. Instead of authorizing sanctions, a travel ban, or an asset freeze, the president created the “Khashoggi ban,” which imposes visa restrictions on people who try to silence dissidents abroad. It’s unclear if that includes heads of state, however.

That action — combined with the end of US support for Saudi offensive operations in Yemen and a freeze on weapons sales — was meant to “recalibrate,” not “rupture” US-Saudi relations, Biden administration officials say. A major consideration was that MBS, as the crown prince is known, may soon officially run the country, so targeting him personally could doom future relations between Washington and Riyadh.

“Our relationship with Saudi Arabia is important,” State Department spokesperson Ned Price told reporters on Monday.

On these key foreign policy areas, President Biden therefore hasn’t governed like candidate Biden said he would. That’s invited some criticism of his first month in charge and concern that his choices could leave allies and activists dissatisfied.

“They are trying to thread the needle between competing interests,” said Seth Binder, an advocacy officer at the Project on Middle East Democracy. “Trying to please a broad array of interested parties is likely going to end up frustrating many of them.”

Biden’s situation is by no means new. Every president has offered a number of foreign policy plans while running for office only to back off them once they’re in charge. Former President Donald Trump, for example, promised to end America’s wars in the Middle East, but after four years, troops remained in Syria, Iraq, and Afghanistan, partly over security concerns.

The new administration, then, is just the latest victim of circumstances not aligning with their initial views of events. Now, it has begun to alter its approach, and may need to do so further.

“This has been the education of Team Biden,” said Kirsten Fontenrose, who oversaw Gulf issues on Trump’s National Security Council. “Once you come in and everything’s new, you need to scramble a bit and adjust.”
Biden hoped for a smooth reentry into the Iran deal. He didn’t get that.

In a July 2019 speech, Biden was clear about what he wanted to achieve with Iran once he became president.

“If Tehran returns to compliance with the deal, I would rejoin the agreement and work with our allies to strengthen and extend it, while more effectively pushing back against Iran’s other destabilizing activities,” he told a crowd at City University in New York. Those activities, among other things, included its missile program and support for proxies and terrorist groups.

In office, Biden’s team continued holding that line: For the US to reenter the agreement, Iran needed to first come back into compliance with the pact’s limitations on its nuclear development. Simply put, Tehran would have to reduce its levels of uranium enrichment to the limits specified in the Iran deal before America would lift any sanctions on the country.

But the US opened the door to negotiate on this point on February 18 after the administration accepted an offer to hold informal talks with Tehran brokered by the European Union.

Iran, however, showed less willingness to engage in talks. Tehran said the US had to lift sanctions before it would discuss America’s reentry into the pact. And likely in an effort to increase pressure on the US, Iran-aligned proxies fired rockets at anti-ISIS coalition forces outside Erbil, Iraq — killing a Filipino contractor and injuring US troops — and near the US Embassy in Baghdad.

That prompted Biden to send two warplanes to drop bombs on nine facilities in eastern Syria that those militants used to smuggle weapons. “I directed this military action to protect and defend our personnel and our partners against these attacks and future such attacks,” Biden wrote in a Saturday letter to congressional leaders.

After days of “considering” sitting down with the US in an EU-brokered negotiation, Iran on Sunday rejected that plan. The “time isn’t ripe for the proposed informal meeting,” tweeted Saeed Khatibzadeh, the spokesperson for Iran’s Foreign Ministry.

Considering US/E3 positions & actions, time isn't ripe for the proposed informal meeting.

Remember: Trump failed to meet because of his ill-advised 'Max Failure'. With sanctions in place, same still applies. Censuring is NOT diplomacy. It doesn't work with Iran.#CommitActMeet
— Saeed Khatibzadeh (@SKhatibzadeh) February 28, 2021

This is surely not how Biden’s team thought the process would go. “Iran, which should be the beneficiary of his policy, is kicking Biden in the face,” said Fontenrose, who’s now at the Atlantic Council.

While most experts believe Washington and Tehran will eventually get back into the deal, what the new administration has learned is that its best-laid plans need retooling.

“The clear strategy that Biden presented during the campaign has not quite translated into this first month,” said Kaleigh Thomas, an Iran expert at the Center for a New American Security in Washington, DC. “We’ve lost the opportunity for a refresh the Biden team was looking to leverage.”
Candidate Biden promised to punish top Saudi leaders. He didn’t punish MBS.

In a November 2019 Democratic debate, MSNBC’s Andrea Mitchell asked then-candidate Biden if he would reprimand senior Saudi leaders over the Khashoggi murder. His response was unequivocal.

“Yes,” he said. “Khashoggi was, in fact, murdered and dismembered, and I believe on the order of the crown prince. And I would make it very clear we were not going to, in fact, sell more weapons to them. We were going to, in fact, make them pay the price and make them, in fact, the pariah that they are. There is very little social redeeming value in the present government in Saudi Arabia.”

View: https://youtu.be/xj69hcP85W4


But on Friday, Biden didn’t follow through on his promise. MBS escaped direct punishment, even though the intelligence report the administration released directly implicated him as the orchestrator behind Khashoggi’s murder.

The president and his team seem content with what they’ve already done to “recalibrate” the US-Saudi relationship, including curbing MBS’s access to Biden — he must now interact with Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, his direct counterpart — and freezing billions in weapons sales to the country. Further, the “Khashoggi ban” could deter foreign leaders from attacking dissidents abroad.

Some say the administration’s actions will still be read as a severe reprimand for leaders in Riyadh. “Saudi Arabia is being normalized inside the US,” instead of being seen as a country that won’t be reprimanded for its internal politics save for religious education issues, said Yasmine Farouk, an expert on Riyadh at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Following the release of the report, and Biden’s policy changes, Farouk said, “That’s going to become the norm from now on, and that’s big when it comes to Saudi Arabia.”

But others believe the reason Biden’s team stopped short of punishing MBS was to keep the US-Saudi relationship from spiraling forever downward. That relationship matters, since the country is vital for America’s plans to stabilize Syria and Iraq, counter Iran, and fight terrorism in the region. It also helps that the country likes to invest billions in the American economy.

If the administration targeted MBS — the king’s son and likely future king of Saudi Arabia — the US would put all that at risk. That’s just not something Biden’s team wanted to do.

“We believe there [are] more effective ways to make sure this doesn’t happen again and to also be able to leave room to work with the Saudis on areas where there is mutual agreement — where there is national interests for the United States,” White House press secretary Jen Psaki told CNN’s State of the Union on Sunday. “That is what diplomacy looks like.”

For Fontenrose, who was in the Trump White House during the Khashoggi affair, Biden ended up essentially where the former president did. “There’s literally no difference in their approach,” she told me, save for Biden avoiding the kind of crude comments Trump made about the issue. “This is just as much a get out of jail free card as MBS got from Trump.”

This is not to say Biden’s policy is identical to his predecessor’s or that it won’t change in the future. It’s only been a month, after all.

But what recent events have shown is that the president’s policies for Iran and Saudi Arabia haven’t gone as planned or as promised, which means we can all expect a change in the administration’s approaches in the days to come.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Hummm......

Posted for fair use.....

WORLD
Biden’s Middle East Quotient: He must return the US to the Iran nuclear deal and encourage dialogue between Tehran and Riyadh

March 2, 2021, 2:04 AM IST Rudroneel Ghosh in Talking Turkey , World, TOI

In a new development, the US recently carried out military strikes in Syria in retaliation for rocket attacks attributed to Iran-backed militias operating in the region. The US was reacting to a February 15 rocket strike on its facilities in Iraq’s Irbil that killed a civilian contractor and wounded an American serviceman and other coalition troops. While the Joe Biden administration is trying hard to portray its own strike in Syria in measured terms, there’s no denying that it will have significant regional implications, particularly with respect to Iran.

As I had written in an earlier article, Biden is seeking to create a balance in the Middle East between Saudi Arabia and Iran – the two regional heavyweights. This comes against the backdrop of the previous Donald Trump administration moving too far in the direction of Saudi Arabia. After all, Trump had overseen weapons contracts worth billions of dollars with Riyadh, had unilaterally pulled out of the Iran nuclear deal without any reasonable justification, and had facilitated the rapprochement of Israel with certain Arab states as part of the Abraham Accords.

But this created an untenable regional situation with Iran being pushed to a corner. However, Iran with its rich history, considerable human resource and significant regional influence cannot be kept down in this manner. After all, it is a country that has survived decades of sanctions. Therefore, Trump’s so-called maximum pressure campaign only hurt ordinary Iranians – that too in the middle of an unprecedented pandemic – and strengthened Tehran’s resolve to resist the injustice that was being heaped on it.

Essentially, there are three parties with vested interests today that don’t want to see Iran being treated as a normal country with normal relations with the international community. First is Saudi Arabia that finds in Iran a convenient enemy to boost nationalism within its own population. This it needs to implement the necessary sweeping socio-economic reforms to prepare for a post-oil future. And Riyadh wants to effect these transformational changes while keeping the rule of the Saudi royal family intact. But if the Iran nuclear deal is revived, Iran’s economy will seriously take off and even overshadow Saudi Arabia’s in the future. It is this fear that sees Saudi leaders support mechanisms that try to curb Iran.

Second is the Israeli right-wing that presents Iran as an existential threat to sustain its own domestic relevance and popularity. It knows that as long as Iran is treated as a pariah, Iranian hardliners will have influence in Tehran. The two actually feed off each other but in this equation it is the Israeli right-wing that retains the advantage as sanctions remain imposed on Iran. And the third of course are the elements of the American right-wing that have long had commercial ties with Saudi Arabia and politically bank on domestic Christian Evangelicals, who in turn support the Israeli right-wing. Clearly, these American political elements have much interests in supporting curbs on Iran.

But as I have mentioned above, curbs on Iran don’t really work, they hurt ordinary Iranian people and lead to more regional instability. Which is why reviving the Iran nuclear deal is of paramount importance. It will allow Iran’s economy to function normally – much needed to fight the Covid pandemic – restore stability in the region and keep the political moderates in the game in Tehran – Iranian presidential elections are in June the results of which will have significant ramifications for the Middle East.

Coming back to Biden’s authorisation of airstrikes against what Washington identifies as Iran-backed militia assets. It is interesting that the move coincides with Biden holding a conversation with Saudi Arabia’s King Salman and his administration releasing the intelligence report that implicates Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman for the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi. It is entirely possible that the airstrikes and the MBS report came almost simultaneously to effect US policy balance with respect to Saudi Arabia and Iran. But intentions alone won’t suffice here. If the Biden administration really wants to make a genuine difference, it must return to the Iran nuclear deal and encourage dialogue between Riyadh and Tehran, just as it supports normalisation of relations between Israel and Arab nations and simultaneously backs Palestinian rights. It’s a big task. But that is what it will take to bring peace to the Middle East.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Hummm......

Posted for fair use.....

World
U.S. airstrike in Syria on Iranian-backed militia killed one fighter, wounded two, says Pentagon
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a monitoring group based in London, had said the U.S. raid had killed at least 22 fighters.
Image: An Iraq-Syria border crossing and destroyed buildings after airstrikes seen on a Feb. 26, 2021 satellite image.

An Iraq-Syria border crossing and destroyed buildings after airstrikes, seen on a Feb. 26 satellite image.Maxar Technologies / Reuters


March 1, 2021, 11:26 AM PST
By Dan De Luce and Mosheh Gains

WASHINGTON — The Pentagon said Monday that a U.S. airstrike last week in eastern Syria killed one fighter in an Iranian-backed militia and wounded two others.
"What I can tell you is that we believe right now there was likely one militia member killed, and two militia members wounded," Pentagon press secretary John Kirby told reporters.

The Biden administration had earlier said it was unclear what the casualty toll was from the bombing raid, which was carried out in retaliation for a deadly rocket attack on a U.S.-led coalition base in northern Iraq as well as two other rocket attacks.

Two U.S. F-15 fighter jets dropped seven precision-guided bombs last Thursday on what the Pentagon said was a logistics hub for the Iranian-backed militias near Syria's border with Iraq. The Pentagon blamed the militias for the recent rocket attacks.



U.S. 'outraged' by deadly rocket attack at military base in Kurdish northern Iraq
Feb. 16, 202101:02

The U.S. military will continue to assess the effects of the airstrikes carried out last Thursday, he said.

Kirby offered no other new information on the airstrikes. Last week the Pentagon said the bombing destroyed nine buildings and partially destroyed two others at the way station for the paramilitary groups.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a monitoring group based in London, had said the U.S. raid had killed at least 22 fighters from the Popular Mobilization Forces, an Iraqi umbrella group of mostly Shia paramilitaries. The group cited sources in Syria.
Kataib Hezbollah, one of the main Iranian-backed paramilitary groups in Iraq, said earlier that one of its fighters had been killed in the U.S. airstrikes.

The operation was the first known use of military force by the Biden administration, which had stressed after entering office that it planned to focus more on challenges posed by China.
Related

News
Biden orders airstrikes in Syria, retaliating against Iranian-backed militias
The airstrikes threatened to complicate a possible diplomatic opening between the United States and Iran, as Washington had said days earlier it was ready to accept an invitation from the European Union to sit down with Iran and other world powers to discuss Tehran's nuclear program.

But Iran on Sunday rejected the offer from the EU for direct talks with the United States. Iranian officials say Washington first needs to provide relief from punishing U.S. sanctions.

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"Considering the recent actions and statements by the United States and three European powers, Iran does not consider this the time to hold an informal meeting with these countries, which was proposed by the EU foreign policy chief," Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh said, according to Tehran's state-run media.

A senior Biden administration official said Iran's response was disappointing and that the United States remained ready to engage in "meaningful diplomacy."

President Joe Biden has said he is ready to bring the United States back into the 2015 nuclear agreement between Iran and world powers if Tehran returns to compliance with restrictions on its uranium enrichment and other nuclear work. The deal, known as the JCPOA, lifted some sanctions on Iran in return for limits on its nuclear program designed to prevent it from building nuclear weapons.

Dan De Luce is a reporter for the NBC News Investigative Unit.
Mosheh Gains is a Pentagon producer for NBC News.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
On another front, the "60 Minutes" broadcast last night covered the Soliemani "hit" and Iranian missile attack in reply.

Besides going into method and means, they in doing so made it clear in the segment that the Iranians were going for a mass body count with the attack on the airbase and that the Trump Admin did everything possible in the time frame involved to avoid that.

The timing on this broadcast makes me wonder "just a tad bit" as to "who" is setting the stage for "what" to occur next?

Posted for fair use.....

Everything New We Just Learned About The 2020 Iranian Missile Attack On U.S. Forces In Iraq
"Nobody should've lived through this," said one survivor as new insights into U.S. intelligence prior to the strikes come to light.
By Joseph Trevithick March 1, 2021


A screengrab from a video showing Iranian ballistic missile strikes on Al Asad Air Base in Iraq in January 2020.
CENTCOM
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The U.S. military has released never-before-seen aerial surveillance footage of Al Asad Air Base in Iraq during the unprecedented Iranian ballistic missile strikes on that facility last year. The annotated video, shot by a drone orbiting overhead at the time, shows six Qaim 1 short-range ballistic missiles hitting the base.

U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), which is the top command overseeing American military activity in the Middle East, declassified the video and provided it first to CBS News' "60 Minutes" for a segment that aired this past weekend. The missile strikes themselves occurred on Jan. 8, 2021. Afterward, then-U.S. Secretary of Defense Mark Esper said that 11 Qaim 1s had hit Al Asad, in total. Officials in Iraq's northern semi-autonomous Kurdish region also said that at least two short-range ballistic missiles had been fired at Erbil International Airport, which also hosts U.S. forces, one of which failed to reach its target.

U.S. Army Major Alan Johnson, who was at the base during the incident, told "60 Minutes" that intelligence had indicated Iran was preparing to fire as many as 27 missiles at Al Asad. The CBS News' program also reported that a total of 16 missiles were ultimately launched at the base, with five failing to function as intended.

Approximately 110 U.S. service members were later diagnosed with traumatic brain injuries, but thankfully there were no fatalities.




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Qassim Abdul-Zahra/AP

A US service member walks through a damaged portion of Al Asad Air Base in Iraq in the aftermath of Iran's ballistic missile strikes on Jan. 8, 2020.


The footage, which you can watch in full below, starts by identifying five ramps at Al Asad – named Bravo, Charlie, Foxtrot, Valley, and Voodoo – and how many aircraft were positioned at the time of the attack. The on-screen notes also there are usually 10 aircraft on the flightline and that 51 fixed-wing aircraft and helicopters had evacuated the base ahead of the strikes. It was disclosed last year that U.S. early-warning satellites, later identified as the Space-Based Infrared System (SBIRS) constellation, provided critical advance notice, giving time for personnel to evacuate and for others to seek shelter.


View: https://youtu.be/SOLEPq40Kdg






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CENTCOM

A screengrab from the video showing the locations of various ramps at Al Asad Air Base in Iraq, as well as other information.


"60 Minutes" has now revealed that the U.S. government also had additional indications well before the missiles began raining down that strikes were coming from monitoring Iranian purchases of commercial satellite imagery of Al Asad. U.S. Marine Corps General Frank McKenzie, head of CENTCOM, said he waited until intelligence told him the Iranians had downloaded their last commercial image of the base for the day before beginning evacuations and the movement of equipment. In doing so, they severely disrupted the effectiveness of the Iranian attack and likely saved many lives and lots of equipment in the process.

The video then moves on to show two missiles hitting "expeditionary air maintenance facilities," a formal term for "tension-membrane" clamshell-type hangars, on the Bravo ramp. A third missile slams into the Charlie ramp, damaging additional clamshell hangars, as well as offices, living spaces, dining facilities, and latrines.



message-editor%2F1614619324979-bravo.jpg

CENTCOM

The first two points of impact (POI) at the Bravo ramp.

message-editor%2F1614619335737-charlie.jpg

CENTCOM

The location of the third POI at the Charlie ramp.


The fourth missile strikes the Voodoo ramp, hitting more clamshell hangars, as well as a fuel bladder. The last two missiles seen in the footage strike the Charlie and Valley ramps, hitting a rescue operations center, as well as maintenance facilities, a gym, and a dining hall.



message-editor%2F1614619355840-voodoo.jpg

CENTCOM

The fourth POI at the Voodoo ramp.

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CENTCOM

The fifth and sixth POIs at the Valley and Charlie ramps, respectively.


It's not clear what type of drone filmed the video in question, but it is known that a number of U.S. Army MQ-1C Gray Eagles were airborne at the time and that some were kept on station due to fears that a complex ground attack could follow the missile barrage. However, the strikes damaged fiber optic lines connecting ground control stations at Al Asad to satellite terminals, cutting them off from the unmanned aircraft overhead. This may also explain, in part, why only six of the 11 Qaim 1 impacts are seen in the footage.







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The full "60 Minutes" segment, seen below, also shows previously unseen video of troops on the ground, who had moved away from Al Asad into the relative safety of the surrounding desert when the strikes began, watching additional missiles careen into the base.



View: https://youtu.be/lGP7hZQuTL0






Despite the early warning and the subsequent evacuations, there was still a need for at least some U.S. personnel to remain at the base. However, there were insufficient bunkers to shelter them all and many of those that were available were only designed to protect against smaller indirect threats, such as rockets, with warheads in the 60-pound-class or smaller, according to "60 Minutes." The warheads in the Qaim 1s were in the 1,000-pound-class.

"[It] knocked the wind out of me, followed by the most putrid tasting ammonia tasting dust that swept through the bunker. Coated your teeth," Army Major Johnson, one of 28 service members who later received Purple Hearts for injuries sustained in the strikes, told "60 Minutes" about one of the missiles hitting near the bunker where he and others were initially sheltering. "The fire was just rolling over the bunkers, like 70 feet in the air."

"We're going to burn to death. We start heading down 135 meters, make it about a third of the way there [to another bunker]," he continued. "The Big Voice, we call it, clicks in 'INCOMING INCOMING TAKE COVER TAKE COVER TAKE COVER.' I've got another football field to run. I don't know when this next missile's going to hit."
"Big Voice," also called "Giant Voice," refers to one of a number of loudspeaker public address and alert systems that are installed at U.S. military bases, as well as other U.S. government facilities, at home and abroad. You can read more about these systems in this past War Zone piece.

Johnson and his companions did eventually make it to another bunker. However, they found some 40 other individuals there also trying to cram in. These shelters were designed to shield around 10 people at a time.



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PHOTO © 2019 PLANET LABS INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRINTED BY PERMISSION

Satellite imagery showing at least four points of impact at Al Asad Air Base after the Iranian strikes in January 2020.


The Army officer described the feeling of the missiles crashing down around him "like a freight train going by you" and said that, in his opinion, "nobody should've lived through this." His comments align closely with those from U.S. Air Force personnel at Al Asad during the strikes. That service released a compendium of personal stories from survivors of the strikes last year.

"I was being forced to gamble with my members' lives by something I couldn't control," Air Force Lieutenant Colonel Staci Coleman, the commander of the 443rd Air Expeditionary Squadron at Al Asad, said. "I was deciding who would live and who would die."

"The explosions finally stop, and I feel a collective sigh within the bunker," Air Force Captain Nate Brown, in charge of the 443rd's Engineer Flight, said afterward. "The next wave hits. Then the next, and the next. I have no idea if anyone is alive outside this bunker."

"No one quite understood the magnitude of what we might be facing," Air Force Captain Adella Ramos, head of 443rd's Airfield Operations Flight, also said. "But as the night carried on, there was an unspoken understanding that this might be it. We might not live through this."



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US Army via CBS News' "60 Minutes"

US Army soldiers in the desert near Al Asad Air Base watch an Iranian ballistic missile, the white circle seen at the top, fall toward the base in January 2020.


The U.S. Army subsequently deployed air defense assets to Iraq, including Patriot surface-to-air missile batteries, to help protect against further missile strikes. There were no such air and missile defenses at the base at the time, which became something a scandal.

More than a year later, tensions between the United States and Iran, as well as Iranian proxies throughout the Middle East, including Iraq, remain high. The "60 Minutes" segment notably aired less than a week after President Joe Biden ordered airstrikes on Iranian-backed Iraqi militias operating in neighboring Syria in response to a rocket attack on Erbil Airport earlier this year. That attack killed a contractor work for the U.S.-led coalition fighting ISIS in Iraq and Syria, as well as wounded a U.S. service member and four more contractors, among other casualties.

The Biden Administration has made clear that it is looking for rapprochement with Iran, including rejoining the controversial deal over Tehran's nuclear program. At the same time, there are concerns that continued aggression from Iran, or its regional proxies, could lead to an escalatory spiral that could potentially result in something similar to the 2020 Al Asad strikes. It's worth noting that that incident was the culmination of a series of events that had started with a fatal rocket attack in Iraq in December 2019, which subsequently prompted U.S. airstrikes on Iranian-backed militias in that country and in Syria.

That, in turn, led to a mob attack by Iran-backed groups on the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad, which was then followed by the U.S. government's decision to kill Iranian General Qassem Soleimani outside Baghdad International Airport just days later. The Iranian missile strikes on Al Asad and Erbil were in direct retaliation for the death of Soleimani, who had been the head of the Quds Force, the part of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) responsible for external operations, including supporting and otherwise coordinating with proxies.

Had Iran's ballistic missiles killed any Americans, let alone a large number of them, it's not hard to see how that could easily have sparked a larger conflict. "Had Americans been killed, it would've been very different," CENTCOM boss McKenzie told "60 Minutes."

He added that it's reasonable to believe that 20 to 30 aircraft might have been lost and 100 to 150 U.S. personnel might have died if not for the intelligence and other early-warning alerts ahead of the strikes. "We had a plan to retaliate if Americans had died," McKeznie said bluntly.

The video footage that we now have, combined with the various first-hand accounts, only underscores just how real that danger was at the time and remains now.

Contact the author: joe@thedrive.com
 
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