GOV/MIL Main "Great Reset" Thread

marsh

On TB every waking moment
Ep. 2909a - [CB] Pushes Financial Institutions To Control The People, Big Fail 19:25 min (starts at 1:44 min)

Ep. 2909a - [CB] Pushes Financial Institutions To Control The People, Big Fail​

X22 Report Published October 26, 2022

The blue states are suffering, the economic situation is now noticeable and the people are reacting to this. The people are seeing their house values go down, the income declining, the people know who is responsible. The [CB] is now pushing the financial institutions to push controlling mechanisms to get the people use to it. This is a big fail.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4BT_sc-X9vM
3:59 min

The Future Of Real Estate Episode 3 : Decarbonizing Real Estate​

Oct 26, 2022

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World Economic Forum

Nearly 40% of global carbon dioxide emissions come from the real estate sector. How can we decarbonize our buildings rapidly enough to achieve net-zero by 2050? Christian Ulbrich, the Global CEO and President of JLL, looks at the quickest and most effective ways that real estate can become net zero-carbon. The Future of Real Estate is a five episode series that profiles global thought leaders on the forces shaping our buildings and cities in a time of unprecedented change. Each episode explores topics that include hybrid workspace, affordability, resilience, decarbonization and real estate in the metaverse. Learn more about the work of the World Economic Forum on real estate here: https://www.weforum.org/realestate
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

Learning All The Wrong Lessons From America’s Energy Crisis

WEDNESDAY, OCT 26, 2022 - 03:45 PM
Authored by Jakob Puckett via RealClear Wire,

Self-inflicted wounds create teachable moments, but the architects of America’s current energy crisis are learning all the wrong lessons.

Skyrocketing energy costs are one of America’s harsh post-Covid realities. And with one in four American households struggling to pay for their energy needs before Covid, policymakers should have set their sights on making energy more affordable for more Americans.

Instead, as Joseph Toomey points out in his new report RealClearEnergy report, Energy Inflation Was by Design, policymakers squeezed supply everywhere they could, so it would become impossible to meet demand.

From the beginning, the Biden administration has prioritized restricting access to the fuels that power nearly 80% of America’s economy and roughly three-quarters of American homes. Revoking permits for the long-embattled Keystone XL Pipeline was one of President Biden’s first executive orders, making it harder and more dangerous to transport Canadian fossil fuels to American refineries. This decision was all the more hypocritical when, weeks later, President Biden gave his approval of Russia’s Nord Stream 2 pipeline to Germany.

In a like manner, the Biden administration is helping speed up the closure of the refineries that turn oil into gasoline. Escalating biofuel mandates are signaling to refineries to close up shop, as blending levels are reaching unsustainably high levels. Moreover, the Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA’s) revoking of biofuel waivers for small refineries will only cause more refining capacity to buckle under those mandates’ costly weight. Gasoline and diesel refining capacity has been declining for decades, and is in no position to reverse course.

The Biden administration is simultaneously cracking down on drilling for the fuels that power everyday life. One quarter of America’s oil and gas is produced from federal property by way of leasing drilling rights to companies. However, the Biden administration recently cut onshore drilling leases by 80%, as well as notably curtailing offshore drilling. For the leases that were not cut, the Interior Department significantly increased royalty fees, making federal lands a less attractive drilling option, as well as allowing lawsuits to delay several already-purchased leases based on environmentally and economically squishy climate change metrics.

On private lands the situation is no different, as the EPA is attempting to regulate oil and gas drilling out of business. The EPA lacks the authority to ban fracking on private lands, but is considering using burdensome ozone standards to stifle drilling in the Permian Basin. The Permian Basin in Texas and New Mexico is America’s most productive oil and gas field, accounting for 40% of America’s oil production and 20% of its natural gas supply. Taking the end use of these products into consideration, the EPA’s rules could jeopardize 25% of the country’s gasoline supply.

The Biden administration’s more stringent power plant regulations would prove deleterious to grid stability, too. Several of the nation’s power grid operators have opposed the EPA’s proposed aggressive power plant regulations, as forcing reliable fossil fuel generation out of service invites risks to grid stability. In fact, grid operators have pushed for keeping soon-to-be-retired coal plants operating longer for this very reason.

Nor is the pressure resulting from a staunch campaign against fossil fuels limited to domestic policy. Rather than increasing American oil production, President Biden has, hat in hand, approached Venezuela and OPEC with the goal of boosting oil production. Despite the stated goal of curbing fossil fuel production being reducing CO2 emissions, these policies overlook the role that American-made fossil fuels have to play in reducing global CO2 emissions. American oil and gas has lower lifecycle emissions than top competitors, and boosting exports can enrich Americans while draining dictators’ war chests.

In its latest move, the Biden administration is resorting again to draining the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, this time to its lowest level in 40 years, in a last-ditch effort to lower gasoline prices before the November election. Periodically releasing oil from the country’s strategic reserves to score political points is not an energy policy strategy, especially when that oil ends up in China.

The international embarrassment and domestic hardship resulting from the Biden administration’s decisions should be a clue to change course, but learning the right lesson is not on the syllabus for the policymakers responsible. As Toomey points out in his report, creating a hostile policy environment that leads to the ending of fossil fuels is the real motive behind the web of energy policies the Biden administration is spinning.

Indeed, Marlo Lewis also confirms all of this on RealClearEnergy: the disastrous outcomes of these rushed climate policies are a feature of the system, not a bug.

Jakob Puckett is an energy analyst.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

If You Liked Big Brother, Meet Google's Big MUM

WEDNESDAY, OCT 26, 2022 - 02:25 PM
Authored by Daniel Greenfield via The Gatestone Institute,

Forget Big Brother, Big MUM is Google's new tool for suppressing conservatives...

MUM or Multitask Unified Model was hyped last year as the company's new machine learning algorithm. MUM had been initially described as an innovative way to allow Google's dying search service to answer natural language questions by drawing on multiple sources.

While MUM's applications initially appeared to be apolitical, that quickly changed.

Google first unleashed MUM to fight what it considered COVID "misinformation" by making sure that everyone saw "high quality and timely information from trusted health authorities like the World Health Organization". By reducing the number of sources to only those that agree with its agenda, Google is able to deliver fast results while getting rid of different points of view.

A Forbes article described how MUM would "check information across multiple reliable sources" to allow "the system to come to a general consensus". Google had once built its search around the vast diversity of a bygone internet, but it has spent the last decade draining the diversity and depth of the pool and replacing it with the shallow manufactured consensus of its agenda.

Google long ago ceased being a way to find different answers and its search results are deliberately repetitive. Search is an illusion. The user thinks that he's browsing the internet when he's actually spinning his wheels in Google's walled garden. This is most obvious in shopping and in politics: two areas where Google has strong interests and tries to manipulate users into believing that they are exploring options when they're being hand fed variations on a theme.

Or as Pandu Nayak, VP of search at Google, wrote in a recent post, "By using our latest AI model, Multitask Unified Model (MUM), our systems can now understand the notion of consensus, which is when multiple high-quality sources on the web all agree on the same fact."

The last thing the world needs is another centralized computer system enforcing a consensus.

Google disagrees with many of its users about what "reliable sources" or "high-quality sources" entail. MUM helps the Big Tech search monopoly manufacture a consensus, on what it claims is a universal fact, and to promote snippets on its own site that promote that consensus.

The monopoly doesn't see its search service as a way to rank sites. The Big Tech monopoly, like its counterparts, doesn't want users actually leaving its sites, and wants to force a "consensus" answer on them in its search engine. MUM is another tool for keeping users on its digital plantation. The underlying notion behind MUM is a continuing redefinition of search, not as browsing an array of sources, but as a way of delivering a single instantaneous answer.

Googlers have long been obsessed with the idea of replicating Star Trek's fictional computer which would offer the answer to any question in a robotic female voice.

MUM is the next step in this Big Sister quest.

"The Star Trek computer is not just a metaphor that we use to explain to others what we're building. It is the ideal that we're aiming to build—the ideal version done realistically," Amit Singhal, then the head of Google's search rankings team, boasted.

Singhal was later forced to leave the company over sexual harassment allegations.

"It was the perfect search engine," he gushed about the Star Trek computer. "You could ask it a question and it would tell you exactly the right answer, one right answer—and sometimes it would tell you things you needed to know in advance, before you could ask it."

In 2022, Google's search is hopelessly broken because the company no longer has any interest in providing the search service that made it a monopoly, giving a ranked list of diverse results, but wants everyone to speak into their phones and receive a single answer. The consensus.

Google's snippets and knowledge panels displace links to actual sites and provide what the monopoly claims is the definitive answer. Its search assistant is similarly set up to provide a single answer. Google doesn't want you to compare answers, but to listen to MUM.

And sometimes Google wants to give you the information before you ask it.

If you own an advanced Android phone, you may find that Google Assistant will interrupt conversations to offer its own "insights".

Google is also pursuing "prebunking" of what it considers "misinformation" with preemptive propaganda campaigns.

Jigsaw, the company's most explicitly political arm, is researching what it calls "prebunking" or attacking views it opposes before they can even gain traction. Prebunking is currently being experimentally tested by Google's Jigsaw to fight "misinformation" in Poland and other Eastern European countries against Ukrainian migrants. This is only a test and Jigsaw expects there to be much wider application for the information techniques that its "researchers" are developing.

Google's YouTube already has a broad set of bans covering everything from questioning global warming, contradicting medical experts, and debating 2020 election results. These are a window into the company's political agendas and how it seeks to enforce political conformity.

While it seeks to narrow the sphere of acceptable information in its platforms, Google is working with the leftist Poynter Institute, one of the most notoriously biased fact check spammers, to develop "media literacy.". The company claims to have spent $75 million on efforts to fight "misinformation." And who determines what misinformation is? He who controls the algorithms.

As the midterm elections approach, YouTube spokeswoman Ivy Choi, promised that the video site's recommendations are "continuously and prominently surfacing midterms-related content from authoritative news sources and limiting the spread of harmful midterms-related misinformation." The technical term for this is mass propaganda. That's what Big Tech does.

The internet was revolutionary because it upended the central systems of mass propaganda which allowed a government and a handful of men to enforce their consensus on a helpless public through the mass media of newspapers, radio stations, movie theaters and television sets. Big Tech's Web 2.0 killed the revolution and restored the oligarchy. Its monopolists see the internet as only a faster way to deliver more immersive propaganda to the masses.

The Big Tech monopolies took off by taming the web, shrinking its vast promise and diversity of content into smaller walled gardens that they could dominate and monetize. Facebook inhaled most of the social interactions on the internet and locked it up in its private platform. Google is determined to do the same thing to the bewildering parade of ideas of the entire internet.

When Google's senior VP Prabhakar Raghavan first introduced MUM, he suggested that the goal was to "develop not only a better understanding of information on the Web, but a better understanding of the world." What happens on the internet doesn't stay on the internet.

Conservatives are one of the cultural barriers because their existence is a marked reminder that Big Tech does not control everything. While its executives and employees are socially insulated wokes operating in major urban centers, they manage systems that extend around the country and the world. When they encounter different points of view, they seek to wipe them out.

MUM is yet another tool for enforcing a totalitarian conformity on the diversity of the internet.

Google doesn't want you to think differently or to think for yourself. What it wants users to do is to shut up and listen to Big MUM.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

Teetering On The Brink: 63% Of Americans Are Living Paycheck-To-Paycheck

WEDNESDAY, OCT 26, 2022 - 01:45 PM
Authored by Michael Lebowitz via The Economic Collapse blog,

We have reached a point where nearly two-thirds of all Americans are living paycheck to paycheck. So what happens if millions of those people suddenly lose their paychecks during the severe economic downturn that is ahead of us? In 2008, unprecedented numbers of Americans found themselves unable to pay their mortgages when the recession struck, and foreclosures surged to absolutely shocking levels. Unfortunately, we have set ourselves up for the same thing to happen again. Most Americans are literally teetering on the brink of financial disaster, and it won’t take much to push them over the edge.

According to a survey that was just released, 63 percent of Americans were living paycheck to paycheck in September…

As rising prices continue to outpace wage gains, families are finding less cushion in their monthly budget.​
As of September, 63% of Americans were living paycheck to paycheck, according to a recent LendingClub report — near the 64% historic high hit in March. A year ago, the number of adults who felt strained was closer to 57%.​

Why aren’t more people alarmed by the fact that nearly two-thirds of the entire country is just barely scraping by from month to month?

If you do not have anything to fall back on, you are just one major setback away from extreme financial distress.

A job loss, an auto accident or a serious illness could hit at any time. If you suddenly experienced such a tragedy, how would you make ends meet?

A different survey that was recently conducted found that two-thirds of all working adults in the United States believe that they are “worse off financially” than they were 12 months ago…

As inflation pressures continue, two-thirds of working adults said they are worse off financially than they were a year ago, according to a recent report by Salary Finance.​
To make ends meet, many are dipping into their cash reserves or going into debt.​
Nearly three-quarters, or 72%, of consumers have less in savings than last year, a jump from 55% who said the same in February, the report found. And 29% said they have wiped out their savings entirely. The report is based on a survey of 500 adults in August.​

So most of us are living paycheck to paycheck, and most of us are also doing worse than we were in 2021.

Isn’t that just great?

If things are this bad already, what will these numbers look like six months from now?

We continue to get even more evidence that we are plunging into a very painful economic downturn. For example, on Tuesday we learned that U.S. business activity has now contracted for 4 months in a row…

U.S. business activity contracted for a fourth straight month in October, with manufacturers and services firms in a monthly survey of purchasing managers both reporting weaker client demand, the latest evidence of an economy softening in the face of high inflation and rising interest rates.​
S&P Global said on Monday its flash U.S. Composite PMI Output Index, which tracks the manufacturing and services sectors, fell to 47.3 this month from a final reading of 49.5 in September.​

And just like we witnessed in 2008, home prices are starting to crash at an alarming rate.

In fact, it appears that prices are going down particularly fast in the western portion of the nation…

The study was conducted by Ed Pinto—director of the American Enterprise Institute’s Housing Center. Pinto told Fortune that he predicts that the ‘damage’ will spread for the Northeast, with low and middle-markets being hit the worst.​
It’s Northern California that leads the way, with San Jose experiencing a drop of 10.8 percent since September, followed by San Francisco at 8.5 percent, then it’s Seattle at 8.2 percent, Denver at 5.8 percent, San Diego 5.2 percent, Portland 5.1 percent, Las Vegas 4.8 percent and Phoenix at 4.4 percent.​

Unfortunately, millions of Americans that purchased homes at or near the peak of the market could soon find themselves “underwater” on their mortgages.

Do you remember the last time such a thing happened?

It was a complete and utter nightmare. Countless homeowners ended up simply walking away from their mortgages, and that caused a giant mess for our financial institutions that took many years to finally sort out.

In so many ways, what we are going through right now is reminiscent of what we experienced in 2008 and 2009.

And just like we witnessed in 2008, most Americans are completely and utterly unprepared for what is ahead.

To me, that is quite strange, because at this point what is happening to the economy should be apparent to everyone.

We are enduring the worst inflation crisis in decades, the housing market is starting to come apart at the seams, and economic activity is slowing down all around us.

The state of the U.S. economy has become a top issue during this election season, and pessimism about the future seems to be permeating just about everything.

In fact, at this point Americans are even becoming more pessimistic about the long-term future of their children…

Americans have as little optimism as they have had at any time in nearly three decades about young people’s chances of having greater material success in life than their parents. In all, 42% of U.S. adults think it is very (13%) or somewhat (29%) likely that today’s youth “will have a better living standard, better homes, a better education and so on.” This marks an 18-percentage-point drop since June 2019 and is statistically tied with the previous low in 2011.​

But even though there is so much pessimism in our society right now, most people are still not getting prepared for a full-blown meltdown of the system.

And that is because most of the population does not think that it is going to happen.

After everything that has transpired, most Americans still have a tremendous amount of faith in the fundamental soundness of our system.

Overall, there is still an overwhelming consensus that most of the severe problems that we are facing right now are just “temporary” and that things will “return to normal” eventually.

It would be wonderful if that assessment was true.

Sadly, our leaders have really messed things up this time, and we are all going to experience a tremendous amount of pain as a result.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

Decades of Student Progress Wiped Out; National Math and Reading Scores at Historic Lows: Report

By Terri Wu October 24, 2022 Updated: October 25, 2022

National math test scores in fourth and eighth grades showed the biggest drop since a national testing program began in 1990, and the reading level for the same grades reverted to a level from three decades ago.

Eighth-grade math performance has dropped eight points since 2019, and about a third of students in both grades can’t read at the minimum required level, according to the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) report.

NAEP, also known as the “Nation’s Report Card,” is the only national and continuing assessment program administered by the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) of the Department of Education. The Nation’s Report Card is the gold standard for measuring student academic achievements. The results released on Oct. 24 were based on tests administered in the spring.

Peggy Carr, the NCES commissioner who presented the math and reading test results, said the eight-point decline in eighth-grade math was “troubling” and “significant.” According to her, a two and three-point drop is considered significant at the national level.

She began her presentation with contexts of the testing results: the pandemic, reduced in-person learning, and increased mental health needs of students. She said she would have to talk to reading experts to find out why students’ reading performance lost 30 years of progress.

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“We are talking about a really serious erosion of children’s capacities to read and count in the next generation of the workforce,” Beverly Perdue, former governor of North Carolina and chair of the National Assessment Governing Board, which sets policies and achievement levels for the Nation’s Report Card, said during a media event at the National Press Club in Washington on Oct. 2. “So this becomes a global economic issue for America.”

U.S. Education Secretary Miguel Cardona called the results “appalling” and “unacceptable.”

“This is a moment of truth for education,” he told reporters in a pre-release briefing on Oct. 21.

In a statement, Perdue said students’ learning gaps “predated—but were exacerbated by the pandemic.”

Dr. Vicki Alger, a policy adviser for the Heartland Institute, agreed.

“We should be careful not to make COVID school closures the whole story. School closures made an already bad situation worse. Alarming proportions of students are still not proficient in the core subjects of math and reading,” she told The Epoch Times.

“We’re also seeing the continuing pattern of lower proficiency rates among eighth-graders compared to fourth-graders. We would expect to see children’s subject-level mastery improving the longer they’re in school, but we’re still seeing the opposite instead.”

Virginia Takes Actions
The Nation’s Report Card also provides a platform for peer comparisons across states. Virginia saw the sharpest decline in the nation in fourth-grade reading scores, 13.6 points since 2017 and three times the national average.

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“We must acknowledge the glaring reality that we face together: our nation’s children have experienced catastrophic learning loss, and Virginia students are among the hardest hit,” Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin said at a press event in Richmond on Oct. 24. “We also must clearly recognize that the underpinnings to this catastrophic performance were decisions that were made long before we had ever heard of COVID-19.”

He said the reason for Virginia’s decline was lowered standards and expectations and gave examples of recent events: the 2017 accreditation standard revision and the lowering of standards for math (2019) and reading (2020) in the Commonwealth’s Standard of Learning tests.

As a result of lowered standards, Virginia’s “honesty gap”—a performance gap between the state and national level—gave parents the false impression that students were doing well, said Jillian Balow, Virginia’s superintendent of public instruction.

Youngkin announced new policies, including investing $30 million in learning loss recovery, $3 million in enhancing teacher recruitment and retention, and releasing the “learning needs dashboard” for students not performing at grade level so parents and teachers could monitor learning recovery status.

He also challenged Virginia school divisions to spend the $2 billion remaining federal K-12 funds. Youngkin said that local school divisions would be required to submit updated spending plans for federal spending funds by Dec. 31.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

Fed's Favorite Yield Curve Indicator Finally Inverts, Recession Imminent​

WEDNESDAY, OCT 26, 2022 - 12:01 PM

The last four days have seen 10Y yields plunged almost 35bps from their highs while the 3m bill yield has crept higher by around 12bps...


Source: Bloomberg

Which has left the much-watched (and Fed-blessed) indicator of recessions (the 3m10Y Treasury yield spread) has finally gone negative... after watching every other segment of the curve invert...


Source: Bloomberg

Why is this yield curve indicator so important?
Simple - while 2s10s and so on are much discussed, they are quickly shrugged off by the permabull crowd as being overly sensitive - "predicting 10 of the last 5 recessions" for example; in the case of the 3M10Y spread, no lessor venerable institute than The Federal Reserve Bank of New York has blessed this as their preferred recession signal:

"Our preferred combination of Treasury rates proves very successful in predicting the recessions of recent decades.
The monthly average spread between the ten-year constant maturity rate and the three-month secondary market rate on a bond-equivalent basis has turned negative before each recession in the period from January 1968 to July 2006"



Since then it has also been successful at predicting recessions...



The NYFed concludes:

"As for why the yield curve is such a good predictor of recessions, we have reviewed a number of possible reasons, each of which may play an important role at different times. The consistency with which these explanations relate a yield curve flattening to slower real activity provides some assurance that the indicator is valid."

Crucially, while 2s10s spreads have been popular, they are unlikely to have worried The Fed; but the inversion of the 3M10Y spread is a different matter that may, just possibly, feed the 'pause' (or even 'pivot') narrative because of its recessionary predictive ability.



Just don't tell The White House.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

Major Fuel Supplier On "Code Red" As Diesel Crisis Hits Southeast​

WEDNESDAY, OCT 26, 2022 - 08:40 AM

Diesel supplies are very scarce across the Northeast and in the Southeast. Supplies are at the lowest seasonal level for this time of year, and the US only has 25 days left of the industrial fuel in storage. The crisis gripping the diesel market appears to be getting out of hand as one fuel supply logistics company initiated emergency protocols this week.

"Because conditions are rapidly devolving and market economics are changing significantly each day, Mansfield is moving to Alert Level 4 to address market volatility. Mansfield is also moving the Southeast to Code Red, requesting 72-hour notice for deliveries when possible to ensure fuel and freight can be secured at economical levels," Mansfield Energy wrote in an update to customers on Tuesday. The trucking firm has a fleet of tankers that delivers refined fuel products to more than 8,000 customers nationwide.



Mansfield said in many areas on the East Coast, diesel fuel prices are "30-80 cents higher than the posted market average, because supply is tight."

"At times, carriers are having to visit multiple terminals to find supply, which delays deliveries and strains local trucking capacity,"
the notice continued.

This could mean that the US diesel market is so tight that supplies are running very low in certain areas. The crisis has sent supplies of the industrial fuel that power the economy, from trucks to vans to generators to freight trains to tractors, to the lowest level ever for this time of year.



The latest EIA data shows there are only 25 days of diesel supply, the lowest since 2008; and while inventories are record low, the four-week rolling average of distillates supplied - a proxy for demand - rose to its highest seasonal level since 2007.



Mansfield's is a warning sign that the record low storage levels is beginning to impact fuel supply networks.

None of this should be surprising, as we've warned diesel markets have been in crisis for much of 2022. Our latest note titled "Forget Oil, The Real Crisis Is Diesel Inventories: The US Has Just 25 Days Left" outlines the severity of the crisis but also points out underinvestment in the nation's fuel-making capacity, refinery closures and disruptions, strong domestic demand, soaring exports for the fuel, and embargo on Russian energy products have all helped to deplete inventories and the price surge.

Historically low diesel inventories have put a fuel trucking company on high alert for possible disruptions in the Southeast.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

No Fracking Way: UK Flip-Flops Back To 'Green' Religion​

WEDNESDAY, OCT 26, 2022 - 09:23 AM

Almost as quickly as UK Prime Minister Liz Truss was ousted from office, so too was her (now-temporary) order to resume gas shale fracking - a plan which included offering UK households £1,000 each for allowing the practice in their neighborhoods.

According to the Financial Times, her successor - the WEF-sponsored (of "great reset, eat bugs, own nothing and be happy" fame) Rishi Sunak is reversing Truss's order, and reinstating the fracking ban.

During his first prime minister’s questions in the House of Commons on Wednesday, the new UK prime minister told MPs that he “stands by” the Conservative party’s 2019 manifesto commitment that halted fracking.

The moratorium was briefly lifted by Truss during her brief period as prime minister. -FT

The 2019 manifesto - which followed a 2.9 earthquake caused by private fracking company Cuadrilla - reads; "We placed a moratorium on fracking in England with immediate effect. Having listened to local communities, we have ruled out changes to the planning system. We will not support fracking unless the science shows categorically that it can be done safely."

As such, former PM Boris Johnson's government announced that all new fracking wells would be banned, and the country's only active site in northwestern England would immediately shut down.

Truss's reversal was set to increase North Sea drilling, a renewed focus on accelerating offshore wind farms, a pre-announced £400 energy bill discount and the removal of green levies costing £150 - capping the typical household energy bill approximately £1,971.

Sunak, however, is still advocating for offshore wind plants "and more nuclear," adding "that is what this government will deliver."

UK NatGas production had been notably declining since 2000.



The news brings clarity to Jacob Rees-Mogg's Tuesday resignation. Rees-Mogg, a fracking advocate, was placed in charge of the UK's energy strategy by Truss. He notably warned against 'climate alarmism' and said that he wants cheap energy for his constituents "rather more than I would like them to have windmills."

Rebecca Newsom, head of politics for Greenpeace UK, said Mr Rees-Mogg was the "last person who should be in charge of the energy brief," adding that "appointing him to the brief now suggests the Tories have learned nothing from some years of energy policy incompetence."



The Greta will be pleased, we're sure.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

Bad Energy Policy Ideas Never Die

WEDNESDAY, OCT 26, 2022 - 10:20 AM
Authored by Michelle Michot Foss & Lucian Pugliaresi via RealClear Wire,

Thus far in 2022, political actors and their acolytes are dusting off, again, every bad idea that has ever permeated political debate in the United States regarding energy. Among them:
  • Price caps, which do nothing to provoke demand response or salient investment.
  • Export bans, which only shrink the global supply pie, worsening price pressures.
  • Tapping strategic oil reserves, originally reserved for emergencies – a tactic too often deployed to manage or attempt to manage prices.
  • Appealing to OPEC (and OPEC+) to open spigots while also investigating and/or invoking sanctions against, and/or attempting to legislate against, OPEC.
None of these are new, or even clever, or even useful, but they are being presented to voters here and abroad as such.

Allow us to suggest a simple fix.

To the fearful leaders in our country: step out on your turf and support the domestic oil and gas industries in ways that will build investor confidence and calm markets. There simply is no other way to meet the future without a strong domestic base for energy and materials. Others will take note, including troublemakers we face now and those we’ll face in the future.

There is a persistent lack of comprehension of the global oil and gas businesses and underlying economics and dynamics that drive them – and a deteriorating awareness of what it takes to provide oil and natural gas and achieve some reasonable balance in global markets.

Activists and policymakers are so anxious to move beyond hydrocarbons that they have lost any understanding about what the fossil-fuel industry does for a living. They are ignorant of the sheer contradictions between aligning against fossil fuels while supporting widely espoused values like “affordable” energy.

We could say the same about critical minerals, which underlie every green imperative. Awareness is equally lacking when it comes to what the mining and beneficiation businesses and materials science, chemistry, and engineering clusters do for a living every day.

For these failings, there are no excuses. Modern societies are more literate and better educated, with information and knowledge easier to grab across more platforms, than ever before. This means that a more fundamental problem permeates the policy and decision-making spaces. Attitudes, narrow thinking, blinders, siloes, “carbon tunnel vision,” emissions obsessions, the rise of “spreadsheet decarb” modelers – call the culprits what you will – are blocking sound analysis, pragmatic positioning, and common sense.

The combination of these painful gaps makes for dangerous situations. The dangers permeate the domestic and global economies, fracture delicate geopolitical chessboards, create fissures in societies, and threaten quality of life and even human existence in too many places.

A kind of hysterical amnesia seems to have overtaken policymakers and influence leaders, especially among the nations that make up the prosperous Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) – an intergovernmental organization with 38 member countries. In the history of the world, no major energy source has declined in absolute volume. We use more wood and assorted biofuels today than at any time in history (while consuming a smaller share of energy supply). The density of modern fossil fuels has been the primary force in building modern economies. Today’s energy system is complex and massive, and it operates at a scale little appreciated in political debates.

Yes, we can move to the fuels and technologies of the future, but the current crisis reinforces the obvious conclusion: doing so will take a very long time.

The U.S. remains the world’s largest oil and gas producer. American operators extract, process, and distribute these supplies efficiently with an array of advanced technologies. Full integration with the global trading system keeps the entire North American production platform operating efficiently. It may not be the full remedy to solve current imbalances, but our resource endowment is sufficient to expand these so-called “legacy” fuels far into the future.

From 2010 to 2019, U.S. production alone provided over 80% of the supply for rising world requirements for liquid petroleum fuels. The U.S. has emerged as the world’s largest exporter of liquified natural gas (LNG). Potential for further increases is promising.

We may not know what the future holds, but we should bet that healthier and wealthier humans have a far better chance of dealing with whatever comes our way. The lessons of Occam’s razor apply. We need more supply, for an indefinite timeline. Much more important, we need confidence in our domestic industry to achieve it.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

"A Paradoxical Situation": Germany Is Dismantling A Wind Farm To Make Way For A Coal Mine​


WEDNESDAY, OCT 26, 2022 - 11:40 AM
By Michael Kern of OilPrice.com

A wind farm is being dismantled in western Germany to make way for an expansion of an open-pit lignite coal mine in a “paradoxical” situation highlighting the current prioritization of energy security over clean energy in Europe’s biggest economy.


The dismantling of at least one wind turbine at the wind farm close to the German coal mine Garzweiler, operated by energy giant RWE, has already started. RWE says that lignite, or brown coal, has been mined from the Garzweiler coalfields for over 100 years.

RWE also said at the end of September that three of its lignite-fired coal units that were previously on standby would return to the electricity market on schedule in October.

“The three lignite units each have a capacity of 300 megawatts (MW). With their deployment, they contribute to strengthening the security of supply in Germany during the energy crisis and to saving natural gas in electricity generation,” RWE said last month.

Now the company is expanding the lignite mine at Garzweiler after a court in Münster in the western German state of North Rhine-Westphalia ruled in favor of the energy group in a land dispute in March this year to expand the lignite mine.

Commenting on the dismantling of wind turbines to make way for expanding a coal mine, Guido Steffen, a spokesperson for RWE, told the Guardian, “We realize this comes across as paradoxical.”

“But that is as matters stand,”
Steffen added.

Earlier this week, the ministry for economic and energy affairs of the state of North-Rhine Westphalia urged RWE to abandon the plan to dismantle the wind farm.

“In the current situation, all potential for the use of renewable energy should be exhausted as much as possible and existing turbines should be in operation for as long as possible,” a spokesperson for the state’s ministry told the Guardian.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment
"It's The 70s, 2010s, 1920s, And 1930s All In One Toxic Cocktail"

WEDNESDAY, OCT 26, 2022 - 09:00 AM
By Michael Every of Rabobank

Careful, Not Careless Whispers

The last few Global Dailies have again been pleading for some depth in markets analysis. Instead, we get new bean-counting shallowness. As Bart Simpson says proudly in an early episode when the show was still funny, “You can’t make me learn.” No, I can’t. As a more lexical, Lisa Simpson, lyrical reader noted to me, what we get is, “Botox city without seeing the melanoma”.

In line with such epidermal ‘Don’t worry, it’s a beauty spot!’ thinking, yesterday saw another whisper that a Fed pivot looms, because it’s been weeks since the last one, so it’s now time to try the same self-serving strategy again. Yet this iteration was not just bad data- or stocks-driven. Rather, there are worries the entire Treasury market is looking so fragile --or so ‘Gilts’-- that intervention will be needed: if so, who’s the moron now?

One other potential explanation for US yields being down sharply, and the curve flatter was the slump in China’s currency, which is deflationary, alongside a bounce in US-listed China tech stocks. By squinting, some saw the pre-2016 world where China makes cheap stuff for the West and its tech stocks soar. Yet both trends have run their political course, as the Financial Times talks about China’s rich fleeing; and CNY rallied anyway as the US dollar stumbled “because pivot”.

Yet as the Greenback dropped, oil went up. So did gold. So did Bitcoin. So did Botox. Worse, the Saudis publicly chided the White House for using its Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to try to manipulate oil markets, warning this won’t end well once it’s gone – and it’s nearly gone. Said Saudi allegation is deeply unfair to this administration: surely the SPR is being used to try to manipulate the midterm elections? It’s not working, given the recent opinion polls – but then the SPR has that in common with the ability to keep long-run inflation low too given where 2023 forecasts mostly sit. Far more so if the Fed decide to shout, “Burns, Baby, Burns!” and commodity markets go disco inferno.

I repeat for the umpteenth time, what we saw alongside lower yields yesterday is a clear signal that were the Fed to pivot, it would be repeating exactly the 70’s errors it claims it fears most. But, hey, markets gonna market to try to make year-end return targets starting from deeply underwater positions.

If you want another Fed whisper, try Harald Malmgren – but you won’t like it half as much as the one you are clinging to now. He recently shared that after talks with his extensive contacts, he thinks that in early 2023, the Fed is going to start floating a trial balloon to shift the CPI target to 3-4% rather than 2%(!)

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Way to financially repress, if so: way to get debt levels down; and stocks up; and to see the dollar tumble; and commodity prices soar; and inflation become entrenched. Do you still want to be bidding up bonds if so? Only if the Fed is doing QE to buy them off you, BOJ-style, as some are saying sotto voce. In which case, it’s my “Rate hikes + QE” T-shirts again; and “DM = EM” ones; and “USD = JPY”; and it’s the 70s, 2010s, 1920s, and 1930s all in one toxic cocktail. Bottoms up!

I’m not saying believe this whisper: I am saying if you are going to trade off the back of them, then don’t only choose ones that --purely coincidentally!-- suit your short-term portfolio positioning into end-year if you have been so, so wrong so far.

As a further example, consider the Ukraine war. There were lots of urgent whispers, and desperate cries, ahead of 24 February that this could/would happen. Mr. Market was having none of it.

Late last night, Polish President Duda reportedly organised an urgent meeting between himself, PM Morawiekci, Defence Minister Blaszczak, Interior Minister Kaminksi, and the top generals of the Polish army. The whispers are of a potential threat from Russian Kaliningrad to the Suwalki gap, cutting off the Baltics from the rest of the EU. Norway is also stepping up military preparedness near Svalbard.

Does it make any military sense for an over-stretched, under-performing Russian army to start a new front against a NATO member? None. But neither did invading Ukraine, and here we are.

This further action would be madness - unless Russia, after floating the idea of a dirty bomb in typical projecting fashion, just saw Progressive Democrats pen (then withdraw) a letter calling for urgent negotiations to end the war, matching the sentiment from one wing of the Republican party, and thinks further threats of escalation will be met by Western retreat. In that case, such escalate-to-deescalate lunacy would potentially be rational. Or the West is looking to declare war on nuked-up Russia, “because imperialism”, if you are into that kind of thing.

Again, just a thought based on a whisper - but I listen to lots of whispers, rather than just one. I am deliberately careful to do so.

Now for a pivot to Australia, where the RBA this week, tragicomically, spoke of a “secret” piece of modelling suggesting that house prices could fall 20% from their peak. I say tragicomic because the market is already well past that level of decline in some pockets, and this is ‘secret’ in the same way I am actually James Bond – anyone with a brain could see the risks as rates rise. 20% would only undo the Covid boom – not the larger explosive ‘boom!’ from rising mortgage rates.

Against that backdrop, Aussie CPI data out this morning came in, you guessed it, hotter than expected. Oops. Q3 was up 1.8% q-o-q vs. 1.6% consensus and 7.3% vs. 7.0% y-o-y; the trimmed mean measure was 1.8% q-o-q vs. 1.5% expected, and 6.1% y-o-y vs. 5.1%; and the weighted median was 1.4% vs. 1.5% q-o-q and 5.0% vs. 4.8% y-o-y. The new September numbers, as the market starts to adjust to getting monthly data too, were up 7.3% y-o-y headline (vs. 7.1% consensus) and 6.8% core, with no consensus – and no m-o-m print for either measure because this is still too much of a logistical challenge for the ABS.

Either expect the RBA to focus on the q-o-q weighted median much more going forwards, or further “secret” whispers to start of how one might hypothetically intervene in the mortgage market if one were to hypothetically have to. In which case, more “Rate hikes + QE” T-shirts; and “DM = EM” ones; and “AUD = JPY”.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

Ukraine Tells Refugees Don't Come Home Until After Winter

WEDNESDAY, OCT 26, 2022 - 06:50 AM
The Ukrainian government is telling its citizens who have fled to country in the wake of Russia's invasion that it would be best to wait out the winter from outside the country before returning home, after authorities said that at least one-third of all power stations in the country have been damaged or destroyed by Russian strikes, and amid rolling blackouts.

On Tuesday Deputy Prime Minister Irina Vereshchuk addressed her fellow Ukrainians in a national TV broadcast saying that those already in a safe place abroad should wait until Spring to return home. "I wanted to ask them not to return. We need to survive the winter," she said.

Vereshchuk explained that the national energy grid "won't survive" the return of refugees from abroad, but instead the crisis would "only get worse".

"To return now is to risk yourself and your children, your vulnerable relatives," she emphasized in the surprisingly blunt remarks. She said this is because Russia continues "terrorizing the civilian population" - especially in targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure.

"I will ask you not to return, we need to survive the winter. Unfortunately, the power grids will not survive, you see what Russia is doing. You don’t need to do this. If you have the opportunity to stay, it’s better to spend the winter abroad," Vereshchuk said, according to another translation.

According to United Nations numbers published in July, it's believed that more than 12 million people have fled their homes since the February invasion. While many are internally displaced, UN data indicates over 7.7 million Ukrainian refugees have been registered across Europe.

Meanwhile The Economist reports that Russia's stated operation and goal to degrade Ukraine's power infrastructure has been successful. "Russia's losses on the battlefield have prompted it to attack Ukraine’s people. Since October 10th it has directed more than 200 cruise missiles and kamikaze drones at a crucial element of Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure: the electrical-power grid," the report says.

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The Economist concludes, "And whereas Russia’s invasion has been badly planned, poorly executed and bereft of clear goals, its effort to turn off Ukraine’s lights appears competent and effective."
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

Putin's 'Viceroy Of The Donbas' & Top Confidant Seen As Likely Successor To Presidency

WEDNESDAY, OCT 26, 2022 - 06:45 PM

During the opening months of the Ukraine war top US generals and officials went on record predicting that the conflict is likely to drag on for "years" to come. For example a headline in March observed it will turn into a quagmire, and that lawmakers at the Capitol were briefed "it is likely to last 10, 15, or 20 years."

And now, fast-forward to the invasion's eight-month mark, where it does look to be settling in to a protracted stalemated situation. All the while speculation over the future of "Putin's war" and even his personal health abounds, with sensational headlines such as this in the UK Times this month: "Putin at 70: isolated, irrational and fearing for his health."

Speculation over whether the 70-year old Putin will stay in power (and good health) long enough to see his own war in neighboring Ukraine through to a conclusion has naturally given way to questions over a potential successor for leadership, at a moment US and EU sanctions and global condemnation have left Russia more isolated than ever, and at the same time power under Putin's administration has become the most centralized since the collapse of the USSR.

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A fresh report in The Telegraph this week suggests that a career politician and Kremlin insider is likely Putin's top pick to inherit power, as he was singularly hailed for overseeing the 'successful' annexation of the four occupied regions of Ukraine. "For 60-year-old Sergei Kiriyenko, this was the culmination of a mission that he’d been given by Putin," the report introduces. "Everybody was celebrating and he’d played a major role in the enlargement of Russia."

"Kiriyenko was in charge of referendums in these regions even if it was the FSB that managed them in the end," said think tank analyst and Russia-watcher Tatiana Stanovaya. The Telegraph observes, "And now, perhaps mischievously, Kyrylo Budanov, Ukraine’s military spy chief, has said that Putin is even lining up the loyal Mr Kiriyenko as a successor."

The report gives a further snapshot of Kiriyenko's early political career, who in the late 1990's served as prime minister under Boris Yeltsin, as follows:

Nobody knows the paranoid Putin’s succession plans but the Russian leader trusts Mr Kiriyenko, who has made the philosophical journey from supporting Western liberalism in the 1990s to promoting Putin's authoritarianism now.​
A technocrat and a follower of the philosopher-founder of the Moscow Methodological Circle, which believes that people and society can be programmed, Mr Kiriyenko has had to rely on patronage from more powerful Russians to make his career.​
He was appointed Russia’s youngest prime minister at the age of 35 in 1998 by then-president Boris Yeltsin on the suggestion of Boris Nemtsov, the poster boy of Russian liberalism who was murdered on a bridge next to the Kremlin in 2015.​

RFERL: For his baby face and surprise entrance into top politics, the Russian media dubbed Kiriyenko "Kinder surprise," a reference to popular chocolate eggs containing surprise toys.

Currently he serves as First Deputy Chief of Staff of the Presidential Administration of Russia - a role he's occupied all the way back to 2016, when he was appointed by Putin. Some European outlets have lately dubbed him the 'Viceroy of the Donas' for his role in the annexation votes in eastern Ukraine.

Kiriyenko is also considered the man who is personally responsible for Putin's path to the presidency, being the first to put him forward to head up the FSB intelligence agency under Yeltsin in 1998.

France24 recently featured the following description of Kiriyenko: "The bald and stern-faced 60-year-old entered Putin’s deepest inner circle in 2016, when he was named first deputy head of the presidential office."

His influence has only grown alongside Putin's in the meantime, as France24 writes further, "Since then, and thanks to the convenient catch-all title he was given, Putin has been able to task him with any mission he desires, including last week’s sham referendums in the disputed regions in Ukraine, according to American geopolitical think tank GlobalSecurity.org."

As for Kiriyenko playing the role of personal envoy overseeing political assimilation of occupied regions of Ukraine, this has seen some very "hands on" moments. The Telegraph notes that recently, "Videos show him inspecting damage to the Crimea Bridge and unveiling a statue of a patriotic granny in Mariupol, the Ukraine city that Russian forces had bombed to the ground."

View: https://twitter.com/i/status/1543265297326645248
.08 min

However, the report also concludes there are reasons to think that his power won't outlast Putin's own... "But Mr Kiriyenko doesn’t have his own power base and no influence within Russia’s powerful security services. His closeness to Putin is a strength and weakness, said Prof Petrov."

Petrov told the publication, "He is strong now because of his proximity to Putin but with Putin weakening this could change," as it remains that Kiriyenko "is a tool, a loyal tool for his boss."
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment
US Has Only 25 Days of Diesel Supply 2:20 min

US HAS ONLY 25 DAYS OF DIESEL SUPPLY​

The country now has just a 25 day supply of diesel, and that’s the lowest level since 2008. On top of that, demand for diesel is at its highest seasonal level since 2007 because of higher trucking, farming and heating use.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment
UN Agenda21 (Agenda2030): A Plan of Total Inventory and Complete Control for the 21st Century 2:18 min

UN AGENDA21 (AGENDA2030): A PLAN OF TOTAL INVENTORY AND COMPLETE CONTROL FOR THE 21ST CENTURY​

They want to inventory and control the WHOLE PLANET? Who wants to do this? Complete planetary control? ITS ABOUT COMPLETE TOTAL PLANETARY CONTROL!!!! Who owns this planet?

^^^
(Comment: This is Rosa Koire - I could tell by her voice from the beginning. She has been educating people on UN Agenda 21 for about 20 years. She knows what she is talking about.)
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

Survey: Nearly 1 in 5 Americans Skipped Meals, Didn’t Buy Groceries Due to High Inflation​

Getty Images/estherpoon
ETHAN LETKEMAN26 Oct 2022695

Nearly one in five Americans have skipped meals or did not buy groceries due to surging inflation, including 28 percent of Gen Z and 23 percent of millennials, according to a recent survey.

Seventeen percent of respondents said they were receiving food items from a food bank, including 22 percent of millennials, while 17 said they have stopped buying healthier food options. Eighteen percent said they had skipped meals or did not buy groceries.

Beyond facing food insecurity, the same survey also found that high inflation is forcing Americans to delay certain healthcare expenses. Fourteen percent of Americans have canceled or postponed plans to see a healthcare specialist, ten percent have delayed taking prescribed medication, and 11 percent stalled receiving a yearly physical.

“As the price of health care and basic necessities continue to reach record highs, Americans have been forced to make tough decisions that sacrifice their health and wellbeing,” said Kristi Rodriguez, senior vice president of the Nationwide Retirement Institute, which commissioned the survey.

“While these decisions are understandable and challenging, making short-term tradeoffs may have long-term impacts,” Rodriguez continued.

The survey results continue to highlight how Americans are struggling to get by in the current economy under President Joe Biden, as prices for food and consumer goods have soared paired with rising interest rates.

Grocery prices have climbed 13 percent from a year ago, rising 0.7 percent from August to September. Since last year, egg prices have skyrocketed by 30 percent, dairy-related products are up by 15.9 percent, bread is up by 14.7 percent, and butter is up by 26.6 percent.

Prices overall have soared by 8.2 percent since last year, rising 0.4 percent between August and September. Core inflation — not including food and energy prices — is up by 6.6 percent since a year ago, the highest it has been in 40 years.

The survey was conducted online by Harris Poll on behalf of Nationwide, which surveyed 1,140 U.S. adults between August 26 and September 8, 2022.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment
Michael Yon @MichaelYon
Oct 26, 2022 at 11:42pm
Another Fertilizer Facility Fire

1666843991699.jpeg


Fertilizer Manufacturing Plant Destroyed in Massive Fire

The Wilbur-Ellis facility near Moses Lake, WA was left in ruins after a fire engulfed the facility Sunday.
John S. Forrester | Oct 24, 2022

A massive fire ignited at the Wilbur-Ellis fertilizer manufacturing and blending plant near Moses Lake, WA Sunday, leaving the facility in ruins and forcing some residents living near the location to shelter in place.

Emergency personnel were called to the site around 3:15 p.m., police told the Columbia Basin Herald. The plant was fully engulfed in flames when crews got on scene. Fire officials interviewed by the newspaper said the facility was built completely of wood because fertilizer erodes metal.

County public health officials urged certain groups of people living downwind of the fire – including those with respiratory conditions, children, and the elderly – to remain indoors until the flames were out due to concerns that the smoke may contain toxic chemicals. Occupants of homes within a one-mile radius of the plant were ordered to shelter in place during the incident.

Video on website .32 min

A statement published by the Grant County Sheriff’s Office at 5:15 p.m. detailed that the plant collapsed and that fire crews were expected to remain on scene overnight to monitor the smoldering fire. No injuries were recorded.

The county fire marshal is launching an investigation into the cause of the blaze.
A statement published by the Grant County Sheriff’s Office at 5:15 p.m. detailed that the plant collapsed and that fire crews were expected to remain on scene overnight to monitor the smoldering fire. No injuries were recorded.

The county fire marshal is launching an investigation into the cause of the blaze.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

The Sleeping Giant Awakens

By Charles Ortel
October 26, 2022

Like ravenous bears coming out of hibernation, Americans are emerging now from a lengthy sleep, surveying a barren landscape not of their own making, and preparing to go on a rampage at the polls. On and after November 8, 2022, the true villains will finally be brought to account for despoiling this once-great nation.

A rout is baked into the cards—not simply a Red Wave or even a Red Tsunami, but a brutal and abject rejection of “know-nothing” politicians in both parties who act insolently as “know-it-alls,” even as their policies and moves define economic and geo-political failures downward.

This reckoning is long overdue—we have been too willing to follow the prescriptions of supposed “thought-leaders,” too trusting that career politicians and bureaucrats in both parties have our best interests at heart, too tolerant of epic corruption and its odious consequences, and too accepting of breathless media accounts that whitewashed the economic destruction and mayhem perpetrated against families and households by a gorged and now gargantuan, soul-destroying super state.

Today, after almost surrendering control over the United States of America to a cabal of self-selected globalist insiders, we see clear signs that individuals and parents have finally woken up to dread reality—most of us are each much worse off financially since 1989. That was when we began to be herded down a futile path that shipped livelihoods abroad while channeling untold resources to government officials who stubbornly refuse to take responsibility for wasting so much of our nation’s wealth and borrowing power.

To grasp the reality, we need only assess statistics put out by the Federal Government concerning household income in 2007 and 2021, from moments prior to the most recent financial collapse to just before the looming disaster, and put out by the Federal Reserve Bank System concerning inflation.

This information shows, without doubt, that household incomes for the bottom 80% of earners have not kept pace with estimates after official inflation, let alone after the higher rates that likely do operate to hurt too many of us, too profoundly.

At their core, the 2022 elections will be about plunging household earnings, soaring crime, and arrogant incompetence that put the long American experiment with ordered freedom on the brink of final jeopardy. Climate change, social justice, and abortion will animate some, but will not work as issues, alone or together, to stem the deluge of righteous discontent over public sector failures that has been bottled up for much too long.

Until the elections actually happen, no pollster will be able to predict, state-by-state and race-by-race, how many voters will swarm to the polls nor how they may actually vote. Demagogues in the Democrat party and Never-Trumpers in the Republican party have slathered too much poison over the American body politic. This is especially shameful amongst Republicans, for the Never-Trumpers refuse to understand that critics of the badly broken status quo are certainly patriots, most definitely entitled to demand an end to the punishments inflicted upon this nation by those “who believe they must be obeyed.”

Moreover, only blinkered slaves in thrall to Washington, DC, masters in both political parties believe what may have happened on January 6, 2021, is remotely as dangerous as the criminal riots instigated by these same puppeteers that destroyed portions of many cities across America during 2020, and continue at a slow burn to this day.

Biden, for one, plainly more addled than ever, stubbornly claims “the American economy is strong as hell,” when, what he actually must mean is “welcome to hell.” Hell, in our case, is the present wreck he instigated that anyone with an IQ measured in double digits or above sees and has been grappling with from Inauguration Day 2021 forward.

Enough is finally enough. Soon, you will see progressives and conservatives vote together to tame and then constrain the forever-war lobbying machine that has turned back the clock to a time when nuclear conflict is an incipient reality rather than an impossible nightmare.

Enough with the torrents of nonsense. Borderless places, particularly in once-rich nations, open doors to the chaos that reigns in ill-conceived American “sanctuaries.” There, violent crime rages, hurting most the vulnerable communities of lower-income inhabitants, including those who thought they had escaped foreign terrors only to find worse ones inside our fifty states.

Enough letting closed minds pour garbage “thinking” down the throats of too-trusting impressionable and precious youth in too many classrooms. Learning must again become an essential part of life’s too-short endeavor. Education must push all of us to re-evaluate continually what some claim may be truths, testing these as new, potentially more inspired perspectives come to light.

In 1796, in his farewell address to the nation, George Washington, America’s first President under the U.S. Constitution, sagely warned of the perils of despotic governance, the kind seen now under Joe Biden or, earlier, under George W. Bush, when three branches of the U.S. government are controlled by a single party:

The alternate domination of one faction over another, sharpened by the spirit of revenge natural to party dissension, which in different ages and countries has perpetrated the most horrid enormities, is itself a frightful despotism. But this leads at length to a more formal and permanent despotism.​

In any reasonable scenario, despotism will be rolled back after November 8, 2022, for a period of months and, one hopes, honesty will infuse a new national debate about our proper priorities in the future and about our many mistakes in the past.

Each of us must vote for candidates we expect will actually end the bi-partisan nightmare perpetrated by dynastic, grasping political families and their ilk.

We must vote to save American life and American justice under the U.S. Constitution, fairly administered without fear or favor.

Above all, we must vote our consciences, freely considered.

Otherwise, many worse failures than we have seen so far certainly are an option
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

Rand Paul Demands Answers Over Vax Company PR Firm’s “Embedded Staff Within CDC To Promote Vaccines”

This “raises serious concerns about the independence of CDC and ACIP’s vaccine recommendations”

Published 14 hours ago on 26 October, 2022
Steve Watson

Pavlo Gonchar/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images6 Comments
Senator Rand Paul called for answers Monday in a letter to CDC director Rochelle Walensky detailing how the agency contracted PR firm Weber Shandwick, which also represents Pfizer and Moderna, to carry out research for the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases.

In the letter Paul demands the CDC release non redacted documents detailing the company’s work with the NCIRD.

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Paul writes “On September 28, 2020 CDC awarded a federal contract award to Weber Shandwick to conduct marketing consulting services for the [NCIRD]. NCIRD is responsible for providing management and support services to the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP), which issues recommendations to CDC on vaccines including the COVID-19 vaccine.”

Paul further notes that the firm “embedded” some “10 on-site health communications staffers, seven health comms specialists, two health research specialists and one social media specialist,” as part of a deal costing $55.2 million and paid for partially with COVID emergency funds.

Paul notes that “target audience research,” was carried out including “promoting vaccines and communicating the risks and recommended actions for outbreaks,” in addition to “generating story ideas, distributing articles and conducting outreach to news, media and entertainment organization.”

“Weber embedded staff within CDC to promote vaccines and provide communications services related to COVID-19,” Paul asserts, adding “while simultaneously representing the interests of Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna, two pharmaceutical companies actively seeking federal approval of their respective COVID-19 vaccines.”

Paul further urges that this “raises serious concerns about the independence of CDC and ACIP’s vaccine recommendations,” adding that it could represent a conflict of interest.

The Senator concludes that Americans “deserve impartiality from the entities responsible for issuing recommendations on the use of COVID-19 vaccines and boosters.”

As we highlighted last week, Paul said it is “appalling” that the CDC has approved COVID vaccinations for all children under the age of 19, urging that there is no scientific evidence that they have any advantages at all.

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Walensky herself tested positive for COVID again last week, despite being vaccinated FIVE times. Critics, including Tucker Carlson have noted that the CDC head repeatedly claimed that “vaccinated people do not carry the virus and don’t get sick”.

View: https://twitter.com/i/status/1583880340363673600
.14 min

View: https://twitter.com/i/status/1584982718663651328
1:13 min
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

Elite Capture, What It Is and How It Threatens America’s Future

Scott Powell
Oct 24, 2022

The opinions expressed by columnists are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Townhall.com.

One explanation for why America is in such rapid decline with the woke normalization of censorship, cancel culture, division, unequal justice, and depravity is found in the theory of “elite capture.”

Elite capture has been mastered by the Chinese communists (CCP) and it has proven far more successful in subverting America than the prior efforts by the Soviet Communists, who did succeed in the FDR and Truman administrations in controlling dozens of agents in the U.S. government. One such agent, Alger Hiss, was FDR’s right-hand man at the Yalta talks, and assisted Stalin sitting across the table to gain control of 10 Eastern European countries in the post-World War II world.

While the CCP uses front groups for propaganda, they have mastered all manner of techniques with an emphasis on infiltration to influence, compromise and co-opt elites so as to “capture” them. Typical targets include university professors and scientists, media executives and reporters, and political, and corporate leaders.

Elite capture, first developed in China, was a form of corruption whereby rural elites used their authority and influence to abuse public resources and monopolize the planning and management of development projects for personal gain at the expense of the larger population. Now the CCP uses it as the primary means in expanding the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) all over the developing world, and to subvert developed countries, with a primary focus on the United States.

With China running a multi-billion-dollar trade surplus with the United States for many years, it has a huge stockpile of U.S. dollars to facilitate elite capture through generous funding of bribery, but also through granting access and favors within China. And when elites take the bait, over time many find it difficult to admit fault and extricate themselves, and they may even choose to see their interests and those of China interconnected or even identical.

It took more than a decade from the opening of China orchestrated by Nixon and Kissinger in February of 1972 for trade between the United States and China to commence. And the CCP was initially more open to American companies manufacturing in China than selling their products in China. By the 1990s, China’s position as the preeminent low-cost manufacturing platform for American companies was well established.

Fast forward to today and we find that industry leading American companies such as Apple, Hewlett-Packard, Cisco, 3M, Wal-Mart, Hasbro, Mattel, Gap, Nike, and others manufacture far more of their products in China than anywhere else. We learned through the Covid-19 experience that 80 percent of the basic components known as active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs), come from China. All companies doing business in China have learned to remain silent and not criticize the CCP, especially regarding corruption in government and human rights violations, such as the persecutions and forced labor of the Uyghurs in Xinjiang and the Tibetans in Xizang.

Today’s CCP takes heed from Mao’s 10-year Cultural Revolution in China that began in 1966. They see cultural influence as paramount because it is upstream of politics and is the single most important force in shaping politics. Thus, they have executed on partial elite capture of U.S. media and Hollywood studio assets in the last 10 years, acquiring controlling interests in some 12 leading Hollywood and media companies, such as AMC Theatres, Carmike Cinemas, the Legendary Jurassic World Production Company, Dick Clarke Productions, STX Entertainment, IM Global, Studio 8, Riot Games and more. With China being one of the largest markets for big screen movies, most American production houses now self-censor—avoiding any criticism of the Chinese government or mention of Taiwan, Tibet, or the Uyghurs.

With media conglomerates being multidimensional, it’s impossible for their news entities to remain insulated from Chinese influence. Conflicts of interest resulting from Chinese relationships between not only Hollywood and the news media but also theme parks, cellular and cable networks, and movie theaters—with nearly all the products they sell manufactured in China—are inevitable. The same Disney that owns ABC has a theme park in Shanghai, and it also owns ESPN. In turn, ESPN has a multibillion-dollar content-rights deal with the NBA. LeBron James is the biggest American basketball star in China and the center of the Nike-NBA industrial complex has defended the CCP crackdowns in Hong Kong.

Without a doubt the greatest elite capture by the CCP has been the Joe Biden family, which started at least as far back as 2013 when Hunter accompanied his father on a trip to China. Significant payments to the Biden family started a few years later.

After studying the documents on the Hunter Biden laptop, former criminal prosecutor and New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani concluded that: “What Hunter Biden is is a bagman…I’ve prosecuted many cases like this. He’s collecting Joe’s bribes that come to about $12 million from Ukraine and $3.5 million from Russia. But the really big money comes from China. And the amount of money involved is literally in the tens of millions of dollars.” Today, there is documented proof that that the Biden family has received at least $31 million from entities controlled by the CCP, with greater Chinese payoffs yet to come.

Rudy Giuliani sums up what ultimate elite capture looks like, stating: “The Biden Family is owned by the Chinese Communist Party.”

We will conclude where we began with more insight about why America is in such rapid decline. The normalization of censorship, cancel culture, unequal justice, depravity, and forced critical race theory indoctrination of the military in America today is all related to “elite capture.”

A solution to our predicament can start with taking heed of George Washington’s warning to the nation in his 1796 Farewell Address: “Against the insidious wiles of foreign influence the jealousy of a free people ought to be constantly awake, since history and experience prove that foreign influence is one of the most baneful foes of republican government.”
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

Biden celebrates first $1 billion for electric school buses, but bus drivers aren’t cheering

By Ramsey Touchberry - The Washington Times - Wednesday, October 26, 2022

The Biden administration on Wednesday identified school districts that will receive nearly $1 billion over the next year to purchase new zero-emission school buses and charging stations.

The money will go to nearly 400 school districts across 50 states, the District of Columbia and several Tribes and U.S. territories to purchase more than 2,400 clean buses, 95% of which will run on electricity. The others will operate on compressed natural gas or propane.

The funds are part of a five-year, $5 billion Clean School Bus Program created by last year’s bipartisan infrastructure law.

The administration says the initiative will bear the brunt of the cost for school districts to slash their emissions, but school bus operators are pumping the brakes on the notion they’ll be able to completely kick diesel-powered buses to the curb anytime soon.

They warned that there are a host of obstacles to overcome.

“It’s not that we can’t get there, but there are some hurdles in front of us for sure,” said Curt Macysyn, executive director of the National School Transportation Association that represents private bus contractors. “With this, there’s a whole planning aspect that’s involved with the charging infrastructure and making sure that your bus depot is capable of handling the power load to get these buses charged.”

Among the concerns is the logistics of rolling out electric fleets with limited range and charging capabilities, particularly in rural areas. Nearly all of the chosen school districts receiving the first tranche of money — 99% — serve primarily low-income, rural, and/or Tribal students.

Electric school buses made by Blue Bird, a leading school bus manufacturer, have a maximum range of 120 miles before needing to be recharged, which can take anywhere from 3 to 8 hours. The administration is kicking in an extra $20,000 for each bus purchased to put toward charging infrastructure.

Another major challenge is that roughly 40% of the country’s 480,000 school buses are owned and operated by private companies that are contracted by schools. That means they don’t have direct access to the grant money and must work with the districts to secure it, adding another layer of bureaucracy that could slow progress.

“That causes logistical problems for us,” Mr. Macysyn said. “It’s creating something that’s more complicated than it needs to be.”

Karl Simon, director of the EPA’s Transportation and Climate Division, said they designed the program with private transportation providers in mind and that the EPA is prepared to work with both them and the school districts they serve to get the money out the door.

The $1 billion plan will be announced Wednesday by Vice President Kamala Harris and Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Michael Regan in Seattle.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment
WEF's Yuval Noah Harari: If Bad Comes to Worst, the Elite Will Be Okay, and You Will Drown .52 min

WEF's Yuval Noah Harari: If Bad Comes to Worst, the Elite Will Be Okay, and You Will Drown​

Red Voice Media Published October 26, 2022

"You have a small elite that pushes things in its own interests, even if it doesn't benefit the vast majority of the population. This has happened so many times previously in history, and it's totally going to happen again," explained Klaus Schwab's top advisor.

And one of the biggest dangers today is a technological utopia...

"Because probably for the elite, it will work. If bad comes to worst — when the flood comes, the scientists will build a Noah's ark for the elite, leaving the rest to drown."

^^^^^
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iELeY7RNDKI
2:10 min

Don't Look UP - post credit scene | second earth​

(The elite land on a new planet - restricted because creature attacks the female President and there is nudity.)
 
Last edited:

marsh

On TB every waking moment

Energy Execs Tell Granholm Shuttered US Oil Refineries Won't Restart

THURSDAY, OCT 27, 2022 - 04:20 AM
Authored by Julianne Geiger via OilPrice.com,

U.S. energy executives told Jennifer Granholm that shuttered crude oil refineries won’t restart, Valero’s Chief Executive Joe Gorder said on Tuesday.

The comments were made to the U.S. Energy Secretary at a recent White House meeting with energy executives, Reuters reported on Tuesday.

“The one interesting thing that came out of it, too, was there was consideration for the ability to restart refining capacity that had been shut down, and I think the general sentiment was that wasn’t going to happen,” Gorder said.

Limited U.S. refinery capacity - and perhaps more critically, refinery capacity in specific U.S. geographic areas, known as PADDs - has spared worry in the United States over high gasoline prices and energy security.

US refinery run rates were north of 90% for much of the summer, according to the EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report.

Shuttered refineries unlikely to start back up are the latest nail in the U.S. refinery coffin.

1666869820637.png

In June, Chevron CEO Mike Wirth posited that there would never be another new refinery built in the United States.

“Building a refinery is a multi-billion dollar investment. It may take a decade. We haven’t had a refinery built in the United States since the 1970s. My personal view is that there will never be another refinery built in the United States,” Wirth said at the time.​

Oil and gas companies would have to weigh the benefits of committing capital ten years out that will need decades to offer a return to shareholders “in a policy environment where governments around the world are saying ‘we don’t want these products to be used in the future,’” Wirth added.

Refinery utilization in the United States for the week ending October 14 was 89.5% of their operable capacity, the most recent EIA data shows.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

The Freight Industry Is Looking At A "Very, Very Ugly" End Of 2022​

THURSDAY, OCT 27, 2022 - 03:30 AM
By Craig Fuller, CEO of FreightWaves

For freight companies, this year’s peak will be weak

Peak season, an annual event in the freight industry, serves as the most important season in the calendar for many transportation firms. Depending on mode, peak season kicks off at different points on the calendar, mostly based around the role in the supply chain that a freight provider plays in ensuring that retail goods are on the shelves for the holidays.

Peak season by mode:
  • Ocean container: July through September
  • Trucking and rail intermodal: October through December 15th
  • Parcel: Black Friday through December 24th
With the peak season already completed in ocean freight, we can say with certainty that this year’s peak season will be incredibly weak.

Back in June, FreightWaves reported that ocean container volumes were dropping quickly, based on data found in SONAR’s Container Atlas, which tracks bookings volumes at the point of origin. By tracking point of origin bookings, we get an advanced look at import volumes months before those containers hit U.S. ports. At the time of publication, we believed that the contraction in volumes would happen at U.S. ports by July, but we underestimated how long it would take to clear the backlog of containerships off major U.S. ports and then waiting to clear U.S. Customs.

In August, it appeared that FreightWaves’ warning was unwarranted, at least looking only at U.S. customs import volume data. That data showed the market was relatively stable and hadn’t contracted.

But maritime spot rates and container shipping lines’ actions told a completely different story.

Ocean spot rates and imports fell off a cliff this year

First, we saw container rates collapse – suggesting that carriers were rapidly losing pricing power. When we published our June piece, the cost to ship a 40-foot container from China to the U.S. West Coast was $9,630. Today the same container would be transported for $2,470 – 74% lower than just a few months ago. This happened in a backdrop of a significant number of “blank sailings” by container ship lines. The container lines will cancel voyages to pull capacity out of the market.

According to Sea-Intelligence, container lines have canceled more than quarter of sailings across the Pacific in recent weeks.



Freight transportation is a commodity and responds to the laws of supply and demand. The collapse in container rates reflected volumes that were quickly deteriorating.

By September, the slowdown in container import volumes was becoming too significant to dismiss, even for the most hardened skeptic. The Port of Los Angeles reported that it handled the fewest number of loaded import containers for the month of September since the Great Financial Crisis (2009).

The Port of Los Angeles is the largest port in the United States.



Weak import volumes weren’t just limited to Los Angeles, but affected all the major West Coast ports. Long Beach posted the lowest September loaded imports since 2016; Seattle/ Tacoma had its worst September for loaded imports in seven years. The decline in volumes will take longer to hit East Coast ports, but it’s already starting – September was Savannah’s weakest month this year for loaded imports, down 9.8% year-over-year.

With an estimated 75% of U.S. container imports related to consumer activity, a sharp drop in volume provides an ominous warning for any mode of transportation that is further downstream and closer to the point of consumption.



How the trucking turndown materialized

The trucking industry has been struggling since the first quarter. FreightWaves predicted that a freight recession was imminent, based on the drop in truckload volumes and tender rejections in the first quarter.

The SONAR Outbound Tender Volume Index (OTVI) measures truckload load requests from shippers to carriers, moving under contract rates. From the start of February to the end of March, it dropped by 12%.

The volume drop continued in April and May, with OTVI registering another 2.5% decline, but stabilized in June in conjunction with the summer construction, beverage, and produce shipping seasons. In June, the OTVI index registered an increase of 1%.

A stable June provided some confidence to carrier executives that the slowdown in the earlier part of the year was just a cooling of volumes from the inflated levels of the COVID economy.

Unfortunately, the optimism at the end of June was short-lived and proved to be an anomaly in a disappointing year.

The OTVI index dropped by 8% in the third quarter, with the majority of this drop occurring in the last two weeks of September. The decline has continued into October, with OTVI dropping an additional 3%.



The reality of the market deterioration is starting to set in across all trucking fleets. During the publicly traded trucking companies’ third quarter conference calls executives talked about how muted they expected the peak to be.

Trucking executives are wary

Here were some of the notes (quotes and other market commentary) from the early earnings reports and calls from the trucking industry.

Knight-Swift – the largest truckload carrier in the U.S.
CFO Adam Miller: “It’s rare that you go into a fourth quarter and not see some type of seasonal uplift and projects and spot opportunities. Especially with companies of our scale, we typically get some of these large, kind of difficult projects to handle and they typically pay a premium; … none of that stuff materialized.”

CEO David Jackson: “Anecdotally, we hear from those that have receivables with small carriers, and it has turned ugly very, very quickly for them,” Jackson said. “The pressures just continue to mount. I wouldn’t be surprised if there aren’t many small carriers that were just holding out hope for a strong fourth quarter to bail them out of a tougher summer with no spot [freight].”

Landstar – one of the largest truckload carriers, largely made up of a network of small franchise operators:

President and CEO Jim Gattoni on customer expectations: “Everybody’s [indicating a] flat to a soft, muted peak season. Since our July call, I would say things have clearly softened up compared to the anticipation of a better peak season.”

J.B. Hunt – the largest surface transportation company in the U.S., with significant operations in intermodal, dedicated, truckload and brokerage:

CEO John Roberts: “Further evidence has presented itself over the course of the quarter that requires an increased level of caution and awareness on broader demand trends and economic activity.”

Head of intermodal Darren Field: “Peak season this year just doesn’t appear to
Covenant Logistics – a large expedited and dedicated truckload carrier:

CEO David Parker: “As we look toward 2023, we anticipate a difficult freight environment coupled with cost inflation, which will pressure margins.”

Triumph Bank – one of the largest providers of banking, factoring, and payment services to the trucking industry:

CEO Aaron Graft on factoring (i.e., short-term trade finance): “The decline in freight rates is starting to show up at TBC. September’s gross revenue was $17.2 million, 8.2% less than a year ago. October is already tracking down 19% from a year ago.”

Retailers command trucking by the fourth quarter

In the context of understanding the trucking calendar and sharp decline in container volumes, the slowdown makes sense. Retail has an outsized impact on the fourth quarter trucking market. Even in a good year, construction, agriculture, and beverage volumes slow down in the fourth quarter significantly. Retail becomes king.

Retailers have nearly all of the products they need in their distribution networks for the holidays (and then some), which means that there won’t be a lot of freight demand as we head into the last two months of the year.

In recent quarters, retailers have talked about how much inventory they are carrying. This holiday season, they will be focused on burning that inventory down – potentially through aggressive discounting and promotions.

As firms get more nervous about the broader economy heading into 2023, there is little incentive to replenish bloated inventories. This is bad news for most freight companies as they will find far fewer load opportunities.

While the timing of when the freight recession started will be hotly debated, carriers from the weakest spot participants to the best run are starting to realize that peak will be very weak.

To borrow a phrase from Mish Shedlock, author of the macro-economics blog, Mishtalk, whether we are in a recession or headed for one, the question is moot.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment
Michael Yon @MichaelYon
Oct 27, 2022 at 7:25am
Twelve Sigma: This is Gigacide
Now come the famines

.29 min on his public site 2:18 min on his registered locales site

^^^^^
(. 12 Sigma event 1 in every 800 years 12 standard deviations above the mean. Greatest orchestrated die off in the history of the world. "Died suddenly" trailer can be found on Rumble

Died Suddenly | Official Trailer - Streaming November 21st 4:20 min

Died Suddenly | Official Trailer - Streaming November 21st
FalconsCAFE Published October 26, 2022
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

US Core Durable Goods Orders Tumble Most Since COVID Lockdown Collapse, CapEx Shrinks​

THURSDAY, OCT 27, 2022 - 05:40 AM
After two straight months of declines, analysts expected a modest rebound in US durable goods orders, and they did, rising 0.4% MoM in preliminary Sept data (less than expected +0.6%) with August being revised upwards to a very small rise...


Source: Bloomberg

However, ex-transportation, new orders tumbled 0.5% MoM (vs +0.2% exp) - that is the biggest MoM drop since April 2020


Source: Bloomberg

The CapEx proxy - was also a major disappointment - dropping 0.5% MoM vs expectations of a 0.5% MoM rise... and that feeds directly into GDPO calcs...


Source: Bloomberg

The big drag on new orders was a32.2% MoM drop in Defense aircraft and parts (we're gonna need moar war)...


Source: Bloomberg

So, are ISM respondents going to be proved right again, like they were in 2007-2009?


Source: Bloomberg

Perhaps this is a 'notional' new orders vs 'absolute' real ISM view of orders?
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

Another Rail Union Rejects Biden-Backed Tentative Labor Agreement​

THURSDAY, OCT 27, 2022 - 06:45 AM
Authored by Joanna Marsh via FreightWaves.com,

Roughly 61% of Brotherhood of Railroad Signalmen’s voting members oppose deal intended to head off strike...

Count the Brotherhood of Railroad Signalmen (BRS) as another union to reject the tentative labor agreement that representatives of the rail unions and the freight railroads negotiated under pressure from the White House.

The union and the organization representing the railroads plan to return to the negotiating table, but BRS’ vote further clouds the question of whether a freight rail strike could occur — something that the tentative agreement had sought to stave off. Members of the Brotherhood of Maintenance of Way Employes Division rejected that union’s tentative agreement earlier this month.

BRS announced Wednesday that 60.57% of voting members opposed ratification, while 39.23% voted in favor.

BRS represents more than 6,000 members affected by the negotiations, which is about 5% of the 115,000 union members involved in the negotiations process.

BRS President Michael Baldwin said the percentage of members who voted — 73.18% — was the highest participation rate in BRS history.

The union was represented at the negotiating table by the Coordinated Bargaining Coalition and later by the United Rail Unions. The National Carriers Conference Committee (NCCC) represented the freight railroads.

In response to BRS’ vote, NCCC said it was “disappointed” in the outcome, saying that the failure to ratify the agreement would delay the benefits of the tentative agreement for BRS members.

Both NCCC and BRS have agreed to maintain the status quo until early December, which means any potential service disruptions by BRS members would not occur before then. Both parties will be going back to the bargaining table for further contract negotiations.

NCCC says the tentative agreement includes recommendations by the Presidential Emergency Board (PEB), a three-person independent group appointed by President Joe Biden over the summer to work with the railroads and the unions on finding ways to resolve the labor contract impasse and avert a strike. The railroads and unions have been negotiating a new contract since January 2020.

Those recommendations included the largest wage increase in nearly five decades, maintained rail employees’ platinum-level health benefits and added an extra day of paid time off, NCCC said, noting that six other unions had already voted in favor of ratifying their labor agreements.

NCCC said PEB’s recommendations “represent a carefully considered compromise of all parties’ interests.”

“BRS asserts that the tentative agreement is inadequate because it does not provide for additional paid sick time. However, the vast majority of BRS members work predictable schedules and all have access to time off,” NCCC said. “Like other rail employees, they can and do take time off for sickness and already have paid sickness benefits beginning after four days of illness-related absence and extending for up to a year.

“The structure of these benefits is a function of decades of bargaining where the unions have repeatedly agreed that short-term absences would be unpaid in favor of higher compensation for days worked and more generous sickness benefits for longer absences,” NCCC continued. “The three experienced arbitrators appointed to PEB 250 by President Biden thoroughly reviewed and rejected a union proposal to add paid sick time for short-term absences to the existing system, noting in their report that union concerns had been considered in formulating the PEB’s historic wage recommendation.”

But BRS said the vote “spoke loudly and clearly that their contributions are worth more.”

“I have expressed my disappointment throughout the process in the lack of good-faith bargaining on the part of the NCCC, as well as the part PEB 250 played in denying BRS members the basic right of paid time off for illness,” Baldwin said in a statement. “The NCCC and PEB also both failed to recognize thep the railroad running and supply chain flowing.

“Without Signalmen, the roadways and railroad crossings would be unsafe for the traveling public, and they shoulder that heavy burden each day. Additionally, the highest offices at each Carrier, as well as their stockholders, seem to forget that the rank-and-file of their employees continued to perform their job each day through an unprecedented pandemic, while the executives worked from home to keep their families safe.”

The six unions that have approved their agreements are the American Train Dispatchers Association, the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers, the Transportation Communications Union, the Brotherhood of Railway Carmen, the National Conference of Firemen & Oilers, and the mechanical and engineering division of the International Association of Sheet Metal, Air, Rail and Transportation (SMART) Workers.

Two of the largest unions representing train engineers and conductors — the Brotherhood of Locomotive Engineers and Trainmen and SMART-Transportation Division — have yet to vote on whether to ratify their agreements.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

Vicious African War Criminals Are Settling In Your Backyard Thanks To Biden’s Failed Southern Border

BY: TODD BENSMAN
OCTOBER 27, 2022

America has a sometimes naïve penchant for admitting large populations of people from foreign lands of utter barbarity.

President Joe Biden’s government has just granted the latest “temporary” stay-of-deportation to thousands of African emigres, this time to Ethiopians inside the United States and including those who recently crossed over the southern border. This comes on the heels of a similar “deferred enforced departure” grant to Liberians living in the United States since two 1990s-era civil wars as well as to Cameroonians and Sudanese. Human rights groups who gained those objectives are also pressuring the administration to protect Mauritanians and Congolese.

These immigration moves should not pass without a remark about America’s sometimes naïve penchant for admitting large populations of people from foreign lands of utter barbarity, with little public assurance that background vetting can prevent the importation of human rights violators and war criminals. Some 40 percent of those reaching the southern border are coming from 150 countries other than Mexico and Central America, a record percentage that includes representation from throughout Africa.

Stepping through the ruins of America’s collapsing southern border and other legal admittance processes are thousands of people from African nations teaming with tribal warlords and vicious armed militias that rape, pillage, plunder, and murder. Perhaps many are actually persecuted victims of these militias.

But “Jungle Jabbah” of Liberia was certainly not one of them. He is on a long and lengthening list of vicious African war criminals that Immigration and Customs Enforcement’s (ICE) Human Rights Violators and War Crimes Center (HRVWCC) has rousted from U.S. hiding in just the past couple of years, including an Ethiopian living in Georgia who tortured his victims to unconsciousness and was convicted of gross human rights abuses in absentia.

Eating His Victims’ Hearts
His real name is Mohammed Jabbateh, and he had been a resident of Philadelphia for nearly 20 years after arriving from Liberia and claiming asylum in 1998.

He was among thousands of Liberians who fled the wars and resettled in Pennsylvania. But in the life he left in Liberia, Jungle Jabbah served as a commander of the United Liberation Movement of Liberia for Democracy during that country’s first civil war, from 1989 to 1997. HRVWCC finally rooted him out. Investigators found that during his “service,” Jabbateh and his soldiers wantonly murdered civilian noncombatants, sexually enslaved women, tortured and executed prisoners of war, desecrated corpses, and ritually ate their victims.

He would have hearts cut from chests and cooked for his soldiers to eat, according to testimony from Jabbateh’s 2017 immigration fraud trial in Pennsylvania. In one instance, fighters under his command murdered a villager, removed his heart, and ordered the town chief’s wife to cook it, then killed the town chief and forced her to cook his heart.

This was the man who easily lied his way on immigration applications to 20 years of sanctuary until ICE’s HRVWCC caught up to him and he landed a 30-year prison sentence in 2019 — at considerable investigative and prosecutorial time and expense to U.S. taxpayers.

He “committed acts of such violence and depravity that they are almost beyond belief,” U.S. Attorney William M. McSwain said in a 2018 press release announcing the prison sentence for immigration fraud. “This man is responsible for atrocities that will ripple for generations in Liberia.

Men like Jabbateh did not come in through an open southern border but, rather, as refugees who first went through formal vetting processes overseas that clearly failed. The process failed again as he and others later acquired permanent residency green cards and other immigration benefits such as temporary protected status once inside the country. The number of Africans crossing over the border is not publicly known because the Biden administration has discontinued annual nationality breakdowns of illegal immigrants. But on the trails from Panama to Texas over the past two years, I have met U.S.-bound Africans from Liberia, Mauritania, Senegal, Nigeria, Ghana, Guinea, Sierra Leone, Somalia, Burkina Faso, and Angola.

I also have discovered their identification and passports along the Rio Grande at popular crossing points, discarded by those who did not want the Americans to know who they are or where they had been.

Therein lies the risk; whereas Jabbateh and other war criminals like him defeated established rigorous vetting to gain admittance as refugees, those who cross the collapsing border arrive as complete strangers who are admitted with far less vetting.

Unimaginable Brutality
Men like Jungle Jabbah are, unfortunately, not exactly rare.

According to the HRVWCC website, since 2003, agents have arrested more than 380 individuals for human rights-related violations, and obtained or facilitated removal orders for 903 “known or suspected” human rights violators from the United States.

As of September 2022, the HRVWCC had more than 160 active investigations into suspected human rights violators and was pursuing more than 1,750 leads of suspects from 95 different countries. Over the past year, the center’s investigators have rolled up Rwandan war criminals who got in by simply making up a name and date of birth and a Gambian torturer who was part of a government militia known as “the Junglers.”

In June 2022, Moses Slanger Wright of Philadelphia was indicted for lying all over his refugee and immigration applications for years, most recently in a final citizenship bid. During Liberia’s first civil war, from 1989 to 1997, Wright allegedly served as the “commanding general” in President Charles Taylor’s National Patriotic Front of Liberia.

Among other Liberians who lied their way into American sanctuary was “General Dragon Master,” Laye Sekou Camara. He got into the country in 2011 on an asylum claim and won a green card in 2012. A May 2022 indictment accuses Camara of lying on various immigration forms to cover up the fact that he led a brutal rebel group called Liberians United For Reconciliation and Democracy, or LURD, which fought against Taylor in Liberia’s second civil war from 1999 to 2003.

Then there was Eddie Yenner Murphy Karpolah, just deported back to Liberia in June 2022. Murphy was “infamous for forcing children to kill and torture” when he commanded a unit of the so-called National Patriotic Front of Liberia, an ICE statement said.

Liberians, Congolese, Cameroonians, Sierra Leoneans, and More
These Liberians did not even come into the country as complete strangers but, rather, as known applicants for immigration benefits who flew into U.S. airports and could have gone through some small modicum of vetting, like maybe a Google search that would have turned up derogatory information. But they didn’t, and neither did hundreds of others, according to ICE’s human rights violators investigations unit.

Many Africans coming to the U.S. hail from other atrocity-ravaged nations, knowing this administration will let them right in without even identification and probably no real vetting whatsoever.

What’s the problem with granting refuge to people fleeing from terrible places like that? Even when border flows are relatively low and managed, American homeland security agencies are challenged to ever discern persecuted from persecutor.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oLbGubywSLA
32:56 min

Democrats BLOWS WHISTLE On Major Vote Fraud Operation, DeSantis Initiates CRIMINAL Investigation​


AMLnZu-r6oSrkSDkHGMt3Ql1sSpEKQjV3avfqvWOoXm3Tg=s88-c-k-c0x00ffffff-no-rj

Tim Pool

Democrats BLOWS WHISTLE On Major Vote Fraud Operation, DeSantis Initiates CRIMINAL Investigation. The claims are similar to those presented in 2,000 Mules. with the midterms less than two weeks out October surprise turns out to be surprises with numerous insane stories dropping, nypost getting hacked, antifa and blm riots, fake news. Republicans are gearing up for a major victory and Democrats have begun playing dirty.

^^^^^

Democrat blows whistle on alleged ballot harvesting scheme, Florida opens criminal probe​

Former candidate for Orange County commissioner describes widespread vote trafficking operation in Orlando area, authorities see enough evidence to warrant criminal probe.

Updated: October 27, 2022 - 4:17pm

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis' new election crimes unit has recommended state police open a full criminal investigation into a Democrat whistleblower's detailed complaint of a long-running, widespread ballot harvesting operation in the African-American communities in politically important central Florida.

Former Orange County Commissioner candidate Cynthia Harris filed a sworn affidavit in late August with the Secretary of State's office alleging that illegal operations to collect third-party ballots have been going on for years in the Orlando area where voting activists are paid $10 for each ballot they collect.

She described an intricate system funded by liberal leaning organizations that dispatch ballot brokers into black communities to pressure voters to turn over their ballots. The $10 fee per ballot is divvied up among the parties who help complete the harvesting.

The collection and delivery of ballots by third parties is illegal in Florida.
The newly created Office of Election Crimes and Security did a preliminary inquiry on Harris' allegations and concluded there was sufficient evidence to warrant a full criminal probe by the state police, the Florida State Department told Just the News on Wednesday.

"The Florida Department of State, Office of Election Crimes and Security (OECS) was made aware of this issue around September 1, 2022," the department said. "After further inquiry, OECS received additional information related to the allegation on October 17, 2022, and performed a preliminary investigation.

"Since OECS is an investigative entity and does not [have] authority to make arrests, the office forwarded the complaint to the Florida Department of Law Enforcement for possible violation of section 104.0616, Florida Statutes," it added.

The Florida Department of Law Enforcement told Just the News on Thursday that it "has received a complaint regarding alleged ballot harvesting in Orange County, which is currently under review to determine if an investigation is warranted."

The development in Florida adds an explosive new allegation to concerns nationwide that ballot trafficking is widespread in some battleground states, a claim made famous by the research of the conservative watchdog group True the Vote and a documentary released earlier this year by filmmaker Dinesh D'Sousa called "2,000 Mules."

Arizona prosecutors have achieved several convictions in that state for ballot harvesting, most recently securing the guilty plea of a former Democrat mayor in Yuma County. True the Vote filed a complaint in Georgia alleging thousands of ballots were harvested in the 2020 election, but those allegations have not yet been corroborated as authorities negotiate with the nonprofit group for its evidence. A Wisconsin investigation unmasked a sophisticated ballot harvesting effort targeting vulnerable nursing home patients in communities like Racine, Wisc.

Harris, who narrowly lost her election for county commissioner in August, described to Just the News her years-long knowledge of ballot harvesting in the black communities in central Florida. She even recorded a ballot broker coming to her home in 2017 to collect her ballot, and obtained the script that harvester was given by her bosses to make the pitch for a voter to turn over their ballot.

"So what happens is in our community when absentee ballots are mailed, you the candidate or any political party can find out when the absentee ballots are mailed and to whom what happens is these ballot harvesters, they know which batch has gone out, they go to the door and they ask you for your absentee ballot," Harris told the "Just the News, No Noise" television show on Wednesday night.

"Well, in communities that don't look like me, no one does this," she said, referring to white neighborhoods. "But in our community it's kind of like an accepted practice that the man is coming by to pick up my absentee ballot or the lady is coming to pick up my absentee ballot."

In her sworn affidavit, Harris identifies specific individuals who direct and act as ballot brokers and were paid to collect ballots and provides intricate details on how the system allegedly works, along with emails, receipts, video footage and other evidence.

"Ballot brokers typically work up to a year in advance," she stated. "Ballot brokers visit individuals in their residences and assists the individual with filling out a request for a mail-in ballot. After the mail-in ballot arrives, the voter is instructed to wait for the ballot broker returns to the individuals residence. They are asked to not seal the certificate envelope."

"In rare circumstances, if the voter has filled out the ballot and sealed the envelope certificate, the ballot broker will take the ballot and then steam open the sealed envelope," the affidavit added. "The ballot broker will either correct any votes, if necessary, that were not voted according to their wishes or just throw them out."

Harris described how, much as in Wisconsin, vulnerable patients in rehabilitation centers and nursing homes in Florida were targeted for ballot trafficking.

"For nursing homes ... ballot brokers get the list of residents by cross referencing the address with the voter registration list," she explained. "The ballot broker figures out the best way to make contact, usually thru friends and family that may or may not know they are even part of a scheme. They help the resident fill out the mail-in-ballot or just take the mail-in-ballot from the nursing home and deliver it to the ballot broker."

Harris, who has worked as an election poll worker in the past, said her biggest concern in coming forward is that ballots collected by third parties have no chain of custody, making it easier to commit fraud such as destroying a ballot or altering it.

"You know, it's just utterly ridiculous that people don't understand that once that ballot leaves your hand and it's not placed in the mailbox, or it's not directly given to the supervisor of elections, you don't know where it goes," she said. "It's possible that they throw them away. We've seen evidence of that.

"You see them steam open the ballots and then they mismark them so that if it's not for their candidate, then that ballot is spoiled. So when people think that the numbers are low, it's really not low, it's just that someone has intercepted before it gets to the proper authorities."

Harris alleged that the Orange County supervisor of elections, who has held the office for 26 years, has turned a blind eye to ballot harvesting in her community.

"[T]his has been going on for so long, you have to look at the supervisor of elections himself. He's been there since 1996. That's 26 years that this has been a blind eye turned on our community, the people that we entrust in the fair elections and the democratic process.

"It has been flawed for a long time because this only happens in our community. It happens all over the nation, but we are the ones that suffer from it because we're the most disenfranchised, we don't have the resources to fight back, and we don't know how to fight back by telling our story."

The office of Orange County Supervisor of Elections Bill Cowles said in a response to a request for comment regarding Harris' claim that he "is not aware of any issues regarding ballot harvesting," so he is "unable to comment on that at this time."

The office added that "if there are any issues" that Harris is "concerned about, we would recommend her filing a complaint with the state for investigation."

After voting ended in the August primary, Harris was in second place with a total of 3,158 votes on election night, which was supposed to trigger a runoff election because the candidate with the most votes didn't receive 51% of the votes.

There was supposed to be a recount, according to Harris, but somehow she "kept losing votes instead of gaining votes," she said. "So when they certified the votes, I was a total of 14 votes missing.

"I know how to do basic math, I don't understand how you could go down in numbers versus going up. But the story that they told me was that the machine was fed extra ballots, and that's why I was six votes ahead of the person that came in third place. Well, if I'm six votes ahead of the person that came in third place at the end of the night, how do you lose 14 votes within a couple of days?"

Florida has had other issues with regard to ballot harvesting over the years.
In 2005, Orlando Mayor Buddy Dyer was indicted on a felony charge of paying a campaign worker to collect absentee ballots before his 2004 election, along with three others on similar charges. The charges were dropped by the prosecutor, who said that none of the persons indicted had intended to break the law.

In 2013, a ballot harvester in Hialeah received one-year probation as part of a plea deal after police said she collected at least 31 absentee ballots for the 2012 August primary election. While a felony charge was dropped, the woman pled guilty to two misdemeanor counts of illegally possessing more than two ballots from other voters.
 

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