GOV/MIL Main "Great Reset" Thread

[marsh]

Luongo: China Queues Up To Join The Davos Beatdown | ZeroHedge

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Luongo: China Queues Up To Join The Davos Beatdown

WEDNESDAY, JUL 06, 2022 - 06:25 PM
Authored by Tom Luongo via Gold, Goats, 'n Guns blog,

The headlines are full of abject terror that Germany’s vaunted industrial base can collapse, and with it the banking sector, if Russia pulls all natural gas supplies.

Of course, this is exactly what the EU said they wanted, and the question now is will they get it, to quote H.L. Mencken, “good and hard.”

So, finally, after destroying their own economy, the politicians in Europe are considering the right question, “Did we do this to ourselves?”

The Euro’s collapse yesterday morning to a new twenty-year low below $1.03 is answering a resounding, “Yes. Yes you did.” I’m sure the board at Uniper, now staring at a $9+ billion bailout after Vice-Chancellor Robert Haebeck and the rest of his Green/Neocon zealots destroyed their investment in the Nordstream 2 pipeline, would agree with the market.

And so much of this is because now the markets are fully handicapping a global recession based on a spate of terrible economic news, including Germany running a trade deficit in May for the first time in 30 years.

So much for that argument that Europe has a positive cash flow statement and can’t/won’t break down because of it, c.f. my podcast from February with Peter Boockvar.

But to understand why things are accelerating this quickly, beyond the Fed’s hawkishness, I think it’s high time we look at what China’s role in this is and will be.

There’s been a lot of discussion about China’s lockdown policy since the beginning of the War in Ukraine.

What did it mean? Are they seriously paranoid or was this their very Chinese way of supporting Russia’s efforts in Ukraine by exacerbating the massive supply chain breakdown created by Davos’ Coronapocalypse? You know I side with the latter position.

So, after a successful BRICS Summit which saw both Iran and Argentina apply for member status (and China inviting Saudi Arabia to join it and the SCO), China announced a week ago they are loosening the COVID restrictions on foreign travelers into the country.

China unexpectedly slashed quarantine times for international travelers, to just one week, which suggests Beijing is easing COVID zero policies. The nationwide relaxation of pandemic restrictions led investors to buy Chinese stocks.

Inbound travelers will only quarantine for ten days, down from three weeks, which shows local authorities are easing draconian curbs on travel and economic activity as they worry about slumping economic growth sparked by restrictive COVID zero policies earlier this year that locked down Beijing and Shanghai for months (Shanghai finally lifted its lockdown measures on May 31).

The result is, as Zerohedge pointed out at the time, the return of capital inflow to China’s equity markets on the announcement. But the markets had been forecasting capital flight into China for weeks since bottoming in April.



That said, this is a perfect example of what I talk about all the time with respect to potential changes in the US political situation. Markets are always looking for changes in intentions by the political class.

These little changes are seen by traders and investors as edges to be played. They may not pan out, but are bets based on a probability calculation of a state change in public policy.

To this end, Fungal Joe is going to lift the Trump tariffs on Chinese imports this week to buy votes by hoping inflation moderates. I’m okay with him doing this trying to right the ship. Tariffs are never the answer, just like sanctions. Notice also this has zero to do with monetary policy and everything to do with supply disruptions caused by government diktat.

This change by China signals an intention by the CCP to open China back up to tourism and business development that isn’t likely to be reversed. I expect this to be real and for China to make even more little moves like this as the summer drags on and markets churn in the West.

With that change, capital inflow lessens the pressure on both the Hong Kong dollar (HKD) and the Hang Seng while giving China more cover to loosen monetary policy without necessarily raising rates and creates another place for capital to flow now that the ECB has capitulated.



Christine Lagarde’s recent statements about fighting inflation being “more art than science” is just saying the quiet parts out loud. But it was what came out of the ECB’s emergency meeting a couple of weeks ago that finally signaled the end for the euro in the minds of investors.

Not only is Germany’s industrial base being literally destroyed gleefully by its government, now the ECB is going to sell German debt to buy Italian and Spanish debt to keep from drowning.

This is akin to bailing water out of one end of the boat only to throw it in the other end.

Couple these things with the frankly, disastrous G-7 Summit where the biggest collection of unserious buffoons gathered to ban the sale of Russian gold and contemplate a global price cap on oil.

… words fail me.

Honestly, after this G-7 the rush into the BRICS Alliance as well the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) will be unstoppable. What serious investor with real capital appreciation goals is going to look at this group of committed (and committable) lunatics and think, “Yes! I can trust my money with Boris Johnson, Joe Biden and Ursula Von der Leyen!”

No, they are looking at this crap and opening up Tradestation.

The fact that Justin Trudeau was even invited should have been your sell signal.

While the BRICS were talking about a new trade settlement currency and adding members, the G-7 was talking World War III while getting caught spending more time on photo ops than substantive dialogue.

Unserious people with sophomoric ideas and an antiquated sense of their global importance (especially true of the UK and Germany) is not a recipe for global capital inflow over the long term.

When you look at the fragility of the EU, the UK, and Canada you realize that the only thing propping up global markets at this point is the hope that the U.S. mid-terms are a complete refutation of the Davos agenda.

If that doesn’t happen, if somehow Soros and Davos steal enough seats and put a bunch of RINOs back into Congress and the Senate to freeze any reform of Washington D.C. the collapse of the West will accelerate very quickly.

Again, go back to what I said at the outset, the markets are looking for early indicators, edges, they can play to front run a big change in a country’s domestic/foreign policy.

If the US has an honest political revolution in November replete with the stirrings of entitlement reform and fiscal sanity while the Fed continues raising rates, then that would be a massive buy signal for not only the US but also China.

If not the US begins its collapse and happens for multiple reasons.
The first is obvious. Insane Progressives and Commies will be emboldened to destroy what’s left of the Rule of Law in the US.: pack the SCOTUS, ban guns, etc.

That will send capital fleeing to relatively safe places like Pakistan.

The second is almost as obvious. It will confirm and solidify for a critical mass of people that the government is irredeemable and it’s time for either a new convention of States, per my recent conversation with Bill Fawell, or secession as the only real options left.

Because when all peaceful means of revolt are taken away from people, violence ensues.

While these evil people think they are unassailable, the reality is that they are not. If you doubt me, go look at video of the Dutch Farmer’s Revolution for confirmation of just how angry people truly are.

None of the issues surrounding the Dems have worked at this point.

No amount of SSRI-addled, known-to-law-enforcement-enabled shootings will roll out gun control in the US.

No amount of screeching from un****able purple-hairs will bring back Roe v. Wade.

No amount of sexual deviance at the public schools will usher in legalized pedophilia.

These are the positions Democrats have staked their future as a party on and most of America is sincerely fed up with it while their businesses are looted, their bank accounts are emptied and their kids sexually-assaulted at school by strippers.

This is why I fully expect voter fraud costs to soar this November and for the 2000(00) Mules strategy to fail as a result. Proud Boys and Oathkeepers will gladly stand outside drop boxes looking for some douchebag with a handful of fake ballots to “question.”

This means they will just print votes out of thin air, but they can only really do that in places like California.

China opening back up for business is good news. Ending COVID restrictions are necessary to shifting the flow of capital from mattresses back into the global economy. But it won’t happen fast enough without a political revolution in the US to stave off a year or two of messy activity as supply chains reroute.

If China opens up more and the mid-terms are a blowout for normal people there is ample room for the Fed to keep going higher with rates from a US gov’t budget perspective. A good article recently from Wolf Street reminds us (and me) that only new debt is subject to the higher rates the Fed is now charging.

We have historically low debt servicing costs.



The budget is still a mess and it’s why entitlement reform is the key political issue going forward. So, if Soros wins this fall and Davos remains firmly in control of Washington, then there is no hope for America’s future as a 50-state compact. They will burn the rest of this country to the ground before giving up control of it.


Even if the mid-terms go well, the transition period before the new Congress is sat will be horrific.

Between now and then expect them to push a NATO casus belli in Ukraine on us to try and save Biden’s Depends budget, Johnson’s terrible hair and Scholz’s saggy man boobs.

This is how they will counter China moving to attract capital, by starting another war.

The problem for all of them is that China ultimately wins either way. All they will do is delay the inevitable because as I pointed out the other day, there isn’t the productive capacity TODAY to fight a two-front war in Europe and the Pacific.

If NATO moves on Russia, China will move on Taiwan. The Russians are salivating at the prospect of the Brits coming in to fight them in Ukraine to free up the US to take on China.

And the West will lose both wars simultaneously, on the off-chance the whole thing doesn’t go nuclear. I do believe pushing the US into political crisis is the ultimate Davos play here. The problem is, since Putin moved on Ukraine the way he did, there is no pulling that off without atomizing Europe in the process.

So, for once, Davos is staring at a Hobson’s Choice rather than their victims. That Vlad, what a card!

China doesn’t want war with the US anymore than Russia does. So opening up China’s economy and Biden lifting tariffs here are the right capital-attracting moves to force even more instability on Europe.

If we avoid WWIII, along with the Fed putting Congress in a fiscal straightjacket, then we can effect real political change in the US

Everyone wins.

I do believe this is the single most important point every other analyst has missed over the past couple of years. The point of beating Davos is to stop WWIII, stop the messy dissolution of the US which would be a catastrophe for everyone, and end the cycle of violence which has emanated from the European colonial powers for centuries.

The US can survive this fiscally and politically. The SCOTUS just flipped off the commies. The people are rejecting woke anti-storytelling like Lightyear and nearly everything Netflix and Amazon produce.

Seen recently in the Financial Times, even Blackrock is seeing the light.



This tells me that Blackrock’s balance sheet is in serious trouble. It tells me their AUM is falling and their ESG/DEI strategy is gutting the company from within. I wouldn’t doubt for a second that Larry Fink bet the farm on Obama/Schwab getting rid of Powell and now they are staring at a collapse as Powell says, “My turn.”

For all of their power, this is still a company with just $36 billion in shareholder equity. Apple sells that many iPhones in 2 months.



I’d love nothing more than to see Blackrock become the next Lehman Moment. I’m sure most of Wall St. wouldn’t either. There is blood in the water folks and the sharks are circling Europe.

Maybe Jamie Dimon will change his middle name to Bruce just to make the point clear to everyone.

I’m sad I gave up popcorn.

 

[marsh]

Goldman: "The World Is On The Brink Of A Rather Severe Recession" | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

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Goldman: "The World Is On The Brink Of A Rather Severe Recession"

WEDNESDAY, JUL 06, 2022 - 06:45 PM

Goldman, which like Morgan Stanley and unlike Nomura and Deutsche Bank, refuses to make a recession its base case (but is quick to make it very clear that in case of recession the S&P will drop to 3,150), has looked back at all the 77 recessions across the globe since 1961 to provide context around the current economic environment in a report titled "Revisiting Recession Facts" (available to pro subs). The report's bottom-line according to Goldman's Chris Hussey: some of what we are seeing today -- economic overheating and large increases in rates -- suggests that the world could be on the brink of a rather severe recession." That said, the bank highlights several other aspects of the current environment which provide a buffer against a notable turndown in activity. And for once we agree with Goldman, according to which the key thing to watch is the "fiscal and monetary response to a downturn." And since Democrats will lose Congress this November and there will be no new fiscal stimulus until 2025 at the earliest, we would add that the only thing to watch is the monetary response, i.e., when the Fed will i) cut rates back to zero, ii) resume QE and/or iii) cut rates negative.

Before we dig into the Goldman report, which looks at key facts about the frequency and severity of recessions analyzing 77 recessions in advanced economies since 1961, here are the main findings:

• According to Goldman, the odds that the economy enters a recession in the next year at 30% in the US, 40% in the Euro area, and 45% in the UK.
• Goldman's subjective recession probabilities are significantly higher than the average 15% annual unconditional probability of advanced economies to enter a recession since the 1960s.
• The unemployment rate has risen by 2.7% in the median advanced economy recession since the 60s with larger increases in the 1980s and the UK but smaller increases in Japan. The distribution is slightly skewed towards larger increases in more severe recessions.
• Economic overheating—high unit labor cost growth and high core inflation—and large cumulative increases in the policy rate often precede severe recessions. In contrast, elevated private sector financial surpluses often foreshadow less severe recessions.
• Currently, across the advanced economies, unit labor cost growth, core inflation, and the expected total increase in the policy rate are generally running at levels similar to the runup of the typical advanced economy recession. Higher measures of economic overheating in the US, UK, and Canada than in Japan and the Euro area suggest that the next recession may be somewhat less shallow in these English-speaking G10 economies. In contrast, the private sector financial balance has been much higher than ahead of the typical recession for all economies, hinting at a shallow next recession.
• Other factors outside the historical dataset paint a mixed picture. On the pessimistic side, the monetary and fiscal policy response might be more limited than usual and energy disruptions are the main risk in Europe. On the optimistic side, long run inflation and wage expectations still appear mostly anchored and substantial supply side improvement opportunities remain.

With that in mind, let's delve deeper into the report starting with...

Frequency
Goldman summarizes the historical frequency of recessions using official recession classifications, such as the NBER in the US, when available. Exhibit 1 shows that the annual unconditional probability of advanced economies to enter a recession since the 1960s has been roughly 15% on average. It also shows that recession risk has not varied much across countries or over time over the past several decades.



Goldman's subjective recession probability in the US of 30% over the next year is also elevated relative to its own extended history. The annual probability of entering a recession in the US has averaged 12% since the 90’s (Exhibit 2), though it averaged a much higher 23% between 1855-1990. US recessions have become less frequent following the creation of the Federal Reserve, the anchoring of inflation expectations, and the decline in the relative importance of the cyclical manufacturing sector.



Severity
Goldman then defines the severity of recessions using the trough to peak change in the unemployment rate. The list excludes the “exogenous” pandemic recession of 2020 as increases in the unemployment rate were either outsized outliers in countries such as the US and Canada or significantly limited by furlough schemes in Europe and Japan.

Exhibit 3 shows that the unemployment rate has risen by 2.7% in the median advanced economy recession since the 60s, with somewhat larger increases in the 1980s (Exhibit 3, left). Countries with larger increases in the unemployment rate also tend to have less frequent recessions—including the UK, Netherlands, and Sweden. In contrast, countries with smaller increases in the unemployment rate tend to have more frequent recessions, such as Germany, Italy, and Japan.



The distribution of the change in the unemployment rate during recessions shows a slight skew towards more severe recessions. The distributions in the UK and Canada are especially skewed towards more severe recessions, while the distribution in Japan is skewed towards less severe recessions.



Predictors of Severity
Goldman next summarizes the predictors of recession severity focusing on variables that have a long history: it finds that economic overheating—unit labor cost growth and high core inflation (Exhibit 5)—and large cumulative increases in the policy rate often precede severe recessions. In contrast, large private sector financial surpluses often foreshadow less severe recessions.



Implications
What do these findings imply for the size of the next recession? Across advanced economies, unit labor cost growth, core inflation, and the expected total increase in the policy rate are generally running at levels similar to the runup of the typical advanced economy recession, with more overheating in the US, UK, and Canada and less in Japan and the Euro area. In contrast, the private sector financial balance has been much higher than ahead of the typical recession across advanced economies.



Taken together, Exhibits 6 and 7 paint a mixed picture about the size of the next recession in the English-speaking G10 economies.

According to Goldman, on the pessimistic side, elevated economic overheating measures point to a higher than usual right tail risk of severe recession. On the optimistic side, the bank's strategists suggest that the large private sector surplus points to a shallow recession; what they ignore is the adverse effect of tens of trillions in lost equity value, which last time we looked is viewed as "savings" by modern economists too. So while there may be $2 trillion more in excess savings, there is $20 trillion less in stock market equity. Which is worse?

Turning to other factors outside of Goldman's historical dataset, we again see a mixed picture.

On the pessimistic side, the monetary and fiscal policy response might be more limited than usual because policy rates remain close to their effective lower bound while both central bank balance sheets and government debt levels are very large by historical standards. Moreover, the exposure to the war in Ukraine and the risk of energy supply shortages paint a relatively negative view for Germany and Italy, especially with the possibility of gas shutdowns in the winter. On the more optimistic side, long run inflation and wage expectations still appear mostly anchored, although as even Powell will admit, that is changing fast. Moreover, substantial supply side improvement opportunities remain in both global supply chains—where delivery times have shortened—and in the labor market.



What is more relevant however, is that as Goldman writes in a separate report titled Timing the cuts, "Investors seem to be shifting focus from pricing a potential recession, to pricing future Fed cuts ... for as early as 2023." Indeed, as we have been pounding the table since early this year, the timing of those cuts is all that matters.

 

[marsh]

What to do with a Problem like HHS? (Pt. 2, treating the disease)
Unwinding entrenched administrative state agencies is hard, time consuming work

Robert W Malone MD, MS Jul 7 Flag of the United States Senior Executive Service Treating the Disease: HHS, The Administrative State, and Inverse Totalitarianism To help understand and prioritize the stack of possible responses to the advanced state of corruption within the US HHS, it is useful to think of a pyramid-shaped hierarchy of problems and issues. The origin of these issues and the overall Administrative State can be traced to the Pendleton Act of 1883, which was established to end the patronage system which had preceded it. Of necessity, this brief analysis will only highlight a few of the issues with a particular focus on the COVIDcrisis, as a comprehensive summary and action plan would require hundreds if not thousands of pages of texts, graphs and figures. Just to illustrate the size and scope of the overall problem, please see the Biden-Harris Management Agenda Vision statement, which represents how the Administrative State sees itself, its problems, and its proposed solutions. To provide context concerning the size of the HHS Administrative State, the President’s FY 2022 HHS budget proposes $131.8 billion in discretionary budget authority and $1.5 trillion in mandatory funding. In contrast, President’s FY 2022 budget request for DoD is $715 billion. According to Federal News Network, the President’s Budget Request included approximately $62.5 billion for NIH, compared to $42.9 billion the agency received in the 2022 continuing resolution, and $42.8 billion in the final 2021 budget. The request represents a 7.2% increase for research project grants, a 50% increase in the buildings and facilities appropriation, and a 5% increase for training. The 2023 proposal includes $12.1 billion more for pandemic preparedness, and an additional $5 billion to stand up the new Advanced Research Project Agency for Health (ARPA-H). Based on 2022 numbers, the NIH budget (alone, not including ASPR/BARDA) represents 8.7% of the entire DoD budget. Stopping Administrative State COVIDcrisis Overreach The foundation of the HHS COVIDcrisis mismanagement is built upon the authorization that has allowed the HHS arm of the Administrative State to suspend a wide range of federal statutes and functionally bypass various aspects of the Bill of Rights of the US Constitution: the “Determination that a Public Health Emergency Exists”. First signed by HHS Secretary Alex Azar on 31 January, 2020, it was then renewed by Azar/Trump effective April 26, 2020, and again on 23 July (Azar/Trump), again on October 02, 2020 (Azar/Trump), January 07, 2021 (Azar/Trump), and then we switch Presidential administrations. The Biden administration did not miss a beat. On January 22, 2021, Acting HHS Secretary Norris Cochran notified governors across the country of details concerning the ongoing public health emergency declaration for COVID-19. Among other things, the Acting Secretary Cochran indicated that HHS will provide states with 60 days notice prior to the termination of the public health emergency declaration for COVID-19. HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra then began renewing the Determination that a Public Health Emergency Exists on April 15, 2021, renewed July 19, 2021; October 15, 2021; January 14, 2022; and April 12, 2022. Based on this schedule, another renewal is due during the third week in July, 2022. All of this is based upon the authority granted to the HHS arm of the Administrative State by Congress when it passed the Pandemic and All Hazards Preparedness Reauthorization Act (PAHPRA) in 2013. According to the Office of the Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response, the Pandemic and All Hazards Preparedness Reauthorization Act (PAHPRA) amended section 564 of the Federal Food, Drug and Cosmetic (FD&C) Act, 21 U.S.C. 360bbb-3, to provide more flexibility to the Health and Human Services Secretary to authorize the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to issue an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA). The Secretary is no longer required to make a formal determination of a public health emergency under section 319 of the Public Health Service Act, 42 U.S.C. 247d before declaring that circumstances justify issuing an EUA. Under section 564 of the FFD&C Act, as amended, the Secretary now may determine that there is a public health emergency or significant potential for a public health emergency that affects, or has significant potential to affect, national security or the health and security of U.S. citizens living abroad and involves a biological, chemical, radiological, or nuclear agent or disease or condition that may be attributable to such agent(s). The Secretary may then declare that the circumstances justify emergency authorization of a product, enabling the FDA to issue an EUA before the emergency occurs. Based on my understanding of Federal Administrative Law, the PAHPRA is unconstitutional and should be immediately rescinded by the courts due to the nondelegation doctrine. In my opinion, this is the first action which should be taken to dismantle the HHS overreach which has yielded the COVIDcrisis public health fiasco, and will not require a major electoral turnover before proceeding. As previously discussed, the “nondelegation doctrine” is arguably the most significant Administrative State issue being actively considered within the current Supreme Court. The theory is predicated on the Constitution’s Article I, which provides that all legislative powers herein granted shall be vested in Congress. This grant of power, the argument goes, cannot be redelegated to the executive branch. If Congress grants an agency effectively unlimited discretion (as it has with PAHPRA), then it violates the constitutional “nondelegation” rule. If the PAHPRA is overturned, then the whole cascade of HHS Administrative State actions which have enabled bypassing of normal bioethical (see the “Common Rule” 48 CFR § 1352.235-70 - Protection of human subjects) and both normal drug and vaccine regulatory procedures. Furthermore, the PAHPRA is what enables Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) of drugs and vaccines, and if overruled, the regulatory authorization for these unlicensed EUA-allowed would be jeopardized. In addition to challenging the legitimacy of the PAHPRA based on the nondelegation doctrine, similar challenges should be raised with the 21st Century Cures Act (HR 34; PL: 114-255), and Public Law 115-92 (HR 4374). Dismantling The HHS Administrative State The leadership hierarchy of the US Federal Administrative State is structured along the same lines as the military, with a progressive series of general service ranks (GS-1 through GS-15, with 15 being the most senior) which are lead by a separate leadership group called the Senior Executive Service (SES V through I, with SES I being most senior), which oversees civilian government operations. According to the Office of Personnel Management; The Senior Executive Service (SES) lead America’s workforce. As the keystone of the Civil Service Reform Act of 1978, the SES was established to “...ensure that the executive management of the Government of the United States is responsive to the needs, policies, and goals of the Nation and otherwise is of the highest quality.” These leaders possess well-honed executive skills and share a broad perspective on government and a public service commitment that is grounded in the Constitution. Members of the SES serve in the key positions just below the top Presidential appointees. SES members are the major link between these appointees and the rest of the Federal workforce. They operate and oversee nearly every government activity in approximately 75 Federal agencies. The U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) manages the overall Federal executive personnel program, providing the day-to-day oversight and assistance to agencies as they develop, select, and manage their Federal executives. In general, the SES is the leadership of the Administrative state, but it is not the only category of employment which has amassed power. Dr. Anthony Fauci, one of the highest paid federal employees ($434,312 base salary), is exempt from being a member of the SES but rather serves taxpayers as a Medical Officer at the National Institutes of Health in Bethesda, Maryland. Medical Officer was the 10th most popular job in the U.S. Government during 2020, with 33,865 employed under this category. Anthony S. Fauci is employed at the highest medical officer rank of RF-00 under the employees appointed and compensated as special consultants under 42 u.s.c. 209(f). Despite the fact that Dr. Fauci is a consultant, he is still subject to 42-160 Conduct Laws and Regulations, which states that Title 42 employees must comply with all ethical and conduct-related laws and regulations applicable to other Executive Branch employees. These include laws concerning financial interests, financial disclosure, and conduct regulations promulgated by the Department, by the Office of Government Ethics, and other agencies. Discharge of Title 42 employees under the ethical and conduct-related laws and regulations applicable to Executive Branch employees, or to 42-140 Performance Management and Conduct breaches (for example, lying in sworn congressional testimony), often requires up to two years of legal processes, which gives rise to the common practice of assigning such personnel to a proverbial “broom closet” office without windows, telephone or assigned tasks. Jeffrey Tucker of the Brownstone Institute has summarized one set of strategies developed to dismantle the Administrative State. President Trump tried to break the power of the SES using a series of executive orders (E.O. 13837, E.O. 13836, and E.O.13839) that would have diminished the access of federal employees (including the SES) to labor-union protection when being pressed on the terms of their employment. All three of these were struck down with a decision by a DC District Court. The presiding judge was Ketanji Brown Jackson, who was later rewarded for her decision with a nomination to the Supreme Court, which was affirmed by the US Senate. Jackson’s judgment was later reversed but Trump’s actions were embroiled in a juridical tangle that rendered them moot. However, in light of the recent Supreme Court decisions, it is possible that the structure of these executive orders may withstand future judicial action. Two weeks before the 2020 general election, on October 21, 2020, Donald Trump issued an executive order (E.O. 13957) on “Creating Schedule F in the Excepted Service.” which was designed to overcome the prior objections and involved creation of a new category of federal employment called Schedule F. Employees of the federal government classified as Schedule F would have been subject to control by the elected president and other representatives, and these employees would have included “Positions of a confidential, policy-determining, policy-making, or policy-advocating character not normally subject to change as a result of a Presidential transition shall be listed in Schedule F. In appointing an individual to a position in Schedule F, each agency shall follow the principle of veteran preference as far as administratively feasible.” The order demanded a thorough governmental review of what is essentially a reclassification of the SES. “Each head of an executive agency (as defined in section 105 of title 5, United States Code, but excluding the Government Accountability Office) shall conduct, within 90 days of the date of this order, a preliminary review of agency positions covered by subchapter II of chapter 75 of title 5, United States Code, and shall conduct a complete review of such positions within 210 days of the date of this order.” The Washington Post, which often functions as the official organ of the Administrative State, certainly appreciated the power of this approach when it was proposed, breathless posting an OpEd entitled “Trump’s newest executive order could prove one of his most insidious”: “The directive from the White House, issued late Wednesday, sounds technical: creating a new “Schedule F” within the “excepted service” of the federal government for employees in policymaking roles, and directing agencies to determine who qualifies. Its implications, however, are profound and alarming. It gives those in power the authority to fire more or less at will as many as tens of thousands of workers currently in the competitive civil service, from managers to lawyers to economists to, yes, scientists. This week’s order is a major salvo in the president’s onslaught against the cadre of dedicated civil servants whom he calls the “deep state” — and who are really the greatest strength of the U.S. government.” Part 1 of 2

 

[marsh]

Part 2 of 2

Jeffrey Tucker summarizes the subsequent cascade of events:

“Ninety days after October 21, 2020 would have been January 19, 2021, the day before the new president was to be inaugurated. The Washington Post commented ominously: “Mr. Trump will try to realize his sad vision in his second term, unless voters are wise enough to stop him.”

Biden was declared the winner due mostly to mail-in ballots.

On January 21, 2021, the day after inauguration, Biden reversed the order. It was one of his first actions as president. No wonder, because, as The Hill reported, this executive order would have been “the biggest change to federal workforce protections in a century, converting many federal workers to ‘at will’ employment.”

How many federal workers in agencies would have been newly classified at Schedule F? We do not know because only one completed the review before their jobs were saved by the election result. The one that did was the Congressional Budget Office. Its conclusion: fully 88% of employees would have been newly classified as Schedule F, thus allowing the president to terminate their employment.

This would have been a revolutionary change, a complete remake of Washington, DC, and all politics as usual.

If the HHS Administrative State is to be dismantled, so that it will become possible to manage the various Executive Branch agencies once again, Schedule F provides an excellent strategy and template to achieve the objective. If this most important of all tasks is not achieved, then we will remain at risk at risk that HHS will once again attempt to trade our national sovereignty for additional power by aligning with the WHO, as was recently attempted in the case of the surreptitious January 28, 2022 proposed modifications to the International Health Regulations. These actions, which were not made public until April 12, 2022, clearly demonstrate that the HHS Administrative State represents a clear and present danger to the US Constitution and national sovereignty, and must be dismantled as soon as possible.

Stopping Corporate-Administrative Collusion and Corruption
The third core problem which must be addressed involves the various laws, administrative policies, and surreptitious practices which have empowered the symbiotic (or is is parasitic?) alliance which has formed between the medical-pharmaceutical complex and the HHS Administrative State. Once again, it is important to recognize the fundamental political structure which has been created; a Fascist Inverse Totalitarianism. The face of modern fascism is often stereotyped by the corporate press as a group of Tiki-torch waving Proud Boys in uniforms marching in Charlottesville and committing acts of violence in person with bats or via automobile. But this is not modern fascism, it is a group of mostly young men aping superficial features of the German Third Reich while wearing outdated uniforms and chanting repugnant slogans designed to provoke outrage. Fascism is a political system which is otherwise known as Corporatism, that being the fusion of corporate and state power. And as previously discussed, currently the real power of the US Government lies in the Fourth Estate, the Administrative State. To break up these “public-private partnerships” which compromise the ability of HHS to perform essential oversight duties and truly protect the health of American Citizens from the rapacious practices and disgusting ethics of the medical-pharmaceutical complex (in which they behave as predators, and we have become the prey), we must sever the financial and organizational ties that bind the medical-pharmaceutical industrial complex to the HHS Administrative State, and which have been incrementally developed and deployed over many decades.

To return balance and Congressionally intended function to the HHS, the following steps must be accomplished, none of which can be accomplished until the power of the HHS Administrative State has been broken and the SES has been brought to heel through combined efforts of the Supreme Court, and both a new Congress and a new Executive branch.

1. The Bayh-Dole act must be modified, administratively or legislatively, so that it no longer apply to federal employees. HHS scientists and administrators must not be receiving royalties from intellectual property licensed to the medical-pharmaceutical complex, as this creates multiple layers of both explicit and occult financial conflicts of interest.
2. The congressional charters for the “Foundation for the National Institutes of Health” and the “CDC Foundation” must be revoked. These public-private partnership organizations have created unaccountable slush funds which are exploited by the HHS Administrative State and SES to circumvent the will of Congress (by enabling activities neither funded nor authorized by Congress) and embody the fusion of interests between the medical-pharmaceutical complex and the HHS Administrative State.
3. The regulator-industry revolving door. The revolving door between HHS employees and medical-pharmaceutical complex must somehow be jammed shut. Mere awareness of the probability of lucrative employment by Pharma upon retirement or departure from HHS oversight roles already biases almost every action of FDA and CDC senior and junior staff. I do not know how to accomplish this from a legal standpoint, I just know that the task must be accomplished if the public interest is to be better served.
4. Industry Fees. The idea of forcing the medical-pharmaceutical complex to pay for the cost of regulation was naive, and this practice must also be halted. If the taxpaying citizens of the USA want safe and effective vaccines, then they need to pay for the cost to insure that Pharma is forced to play by the rules. And when it does not, the resulting actions and fines must be so powerful that they cannot just be written off as a cost of doing business.
5. Vaccine liability indemnification is another legislative strategy which has clearly failed to meet its intended purpose. The vaccine industry has become an unaccountable monster which is consuming both adults and children. The National Childhood Vaccine Injury Act (NCVIA) of 1986 (42 U.S.C. §§ 300aa-1 to 300aa-34) was signed into law by United States President Ronald Reagan as part of a larger health bill on November 14, 1986, and has created an incentive structure with the familiar problem of coupling private profit to public risk, and has resulted in widespread corruption of both FDA/CBER and CDC.
6. Speedy approvals. Yet another “innovation” developed by Congress with wide latitude for implementation by the Administrative State, the Prescription Drug User Fee Act (PDUFA) was a law passed by the United States Congress in 1992 which allowed the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to collect fees from drug manufacturers to fund the new drug approval process. The inefficiency of the FDA regulatory process has lead (largely via administrative fiat) to a series of “expedited approval” pathways, which in turn have been amplified and exploited by Pharma to advance its own objectives, often at the expense of the public. Another case of unintended blowback in which the best laid plans have been twisted by the Administrative State to the point of no longer serving the original intent of Congress. This is another situation which deserves legal scrutiny in light of the revisitation of the nondelegation doctrine.
7. External Advisors. External advisors are often used to provide cover for bureaucrats, and particularly for SES staff, so that a carefully handpicked external committee can be relied upon to produce the intended result while allowing the administrator to avoid responsibility and maintain plausible deniability for decisions which may be unpopular with the citizenry but lucrative or otherwise beneficial for the medical-industrial complex. Once again, while the original intent may have been noble, in practice this has become just another tool which the Administrative State has bent to do its bidding as well as that of its corporate partners.
8. Transparency, conflicts of interest, and data. If we have learned anything from the COVIDcrisis, it is that the HHS Administrative State is quite willing to withhold data from both outside scientists and the general public. Clearly this must stop, and once again recent district court decisions kindle hope that forcing the SES and Administrative State to become more open and transparent is an achievable objective.

Conclusions
Many voices have been raised which advocate some combination of pitchforks and torches for what the COVIDcrisis has clearly revealed to be a politicized and corrupted HHS and its associated subsidiary agencies and institutes. It may be that it will be necessary to create a parallel organization, mature it to the point that it can assume the essential functions of the current HHS, and then demolish the (at that point) obsolete HHS structure. But in the interim, I am convinced that the reforms proposed above could certainly advance the ball downfield towards an HHS which would provide greater value to US taxpayers and citizens, and which could be more effectively controlled by Congress and the Executive rather than operating largely autonomously to serve the interests of the Administrative State itself.

 

[marsh]

Another Rebel is on the way to the Netherlands

►http://www.FarmerRebellion.com | Support our journalism and follow our coverage as it happens Another Rebel News reporter is on their way to the Netherlands. Lincoln Jay is boarding a flight from Tor

rumble.com

1:48 min

Another Rebel (Lincoln Jay) is on the way to the Netherlands
Rebel News Published July 6, 2022

Another Rebel News reporter is on their way to the Netherlands. Lincoln Jay is boarding a flight from Toronto and heading to Amsterdam to link up with our Rebel News U.K. reporter, Lewis Brackpool.
FULL REPORT from Lincoln Jay: Another Rebel is on the way to the Netherlands

^^^^
M Rutte and Kaag say to the Dutch people: "You will own nothing and you'll be happy." .20 min

M RUTTE AND KAAG SAY TO THE DUTCH PEOPLE: "YOU WILL OWN NOTHING AND YOU'LL BE HAPPY."

• WATCH

The Netherlands is becoming a dictatorship. PM Rutte and Kaag say to the Dutch people: "You will own nothing and you'll be happy." Rutte and Kaag are members of #WEF. Agenda of WEF is: globalist rich get richer. Poor people get poorer.

(Cops fight protesters.)

^^^^^
Looks like the airports have been shut down by Dutch farmers. The world is watching. .44 min

LOOKS LIKE THE AIRPORTS HAVE BEEN SHUT DOWN BY DUTCH FARMERS. THE WORLD IS WATCHING.

• WATCH

^^^^
NETHERLANDS STORM TROOPERS - PRETENDING TO BE PROTESTORS - GET CAUGHT - CITIZENS RUNS THEM OUT 1:00 min

NETHERLANDS STORM TROOPERS - PRETENDING TO BE PROTESTORS - GET CAUGHT - CITIZENS RUNS THEM OUT

• WATCH

^^^^^^

MASSIVE UPRISING as Dutch Protestors CRUSH Leftist Globalists!!! 12:32 min

MASSIVE UPRISING AS DUTCH PROTESTORS CRUSH LEFTIST GLOBALISTS!!!

• WATCH

There’s a massive uprising going on in the Netherlands and it promises to change the world like never before! We’re going to see video from the ground out there, we’re going to see how Dutch politicians are trying but failing in their Trudeau-like crackdown, and stick with me to the very end of this video when I’ll reveal how this massive uprising is part of a changing world order that’s happening right before our very eyes! You are NOT going to want to miss this!

(The currency based economic system is being replaced by a commodity based economy. Russia has demonstrated that food and fuel replaces elitist financial model. This is also what the Netherlands revolt is all about.)

 

[marsh]

​

Biden Admin EXPOSED Exporting US Strategic Oil In INSANE Move As Gas Prices Remain At RECORD Highs 32:37 min

BIDEN ADMIN EXPOSED EXPORTING US STRATEGIC OIL IN INSANE MOVE AS GAS PRICES REMAIN AT RECORD HIGHS

• WATCH

Biden Admin EXPOSED Exporting US Strategic Oil In INSANE Move As Gas Prices Remain At RECORD Highs. A Former DoE official called the releasing of oil illegal as Biden panics over high prices but seemingly sabotages the US.

Biden's approval is in the gutter along with the economy. Inflation is at record highs and gas prices are skyrocketing. Meanwhile Democrats keep lying and pushing insane narratives to try to distract the people from their failures.

 

[marsh]

Eating Bugs with Anna Faris, Tituss Burgess & Chef David George Gordon 2:19 min

EATING BUGS WITH ANNA FARIS, TITUSS BURGESS & CHEF DAVID GEORGE GORDON

• WATCH

They can hardly get it down. Watching celebrities due their duty eating bugs to convince the masses that bugs are actually full of nutritional value; there's a sucker born every minute

 

[marsh]

Is The Chinese Yuan Beginning To Chip Away At Dollar Dominance? | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

Is The Chinese Yuan Beginning To Chip Away At Dollar Dominance?

WEDNESDAY, JUL 06, 2022 - 07:45 PM
Via SchiffGold.com,

China appears to be chipping away at dollar dominance.


While there is no indication that the dollar is in imminent danger of toppling from its perch as the global reserve currency, more central banks are warming up to the yuan.

According to UBS Asset Management’s annual reserve manager survey, about 85% of central banks said they are invested in or are considering investing in the Chinese yuan. That’s up from 81% a year earlier.

USB surveyed 30 top central banks.

On average, central bank foreign exchange managers plan to hold about 5.8% of reserves in yuan within the next 10 years. That would represent a sharp increase from the 2.9% level of global reserve yuan holdings reported by the International Monetary Fund in late June.

Meanwhile, the average share of US dollar holdings dropped to 63% as of June 2022, according to the survey. That was down from 69% in the previous year.

According to Business Insider, the response to the invasion of Ukraine “has increased talk about a ‘multipolar’ world, in which the US is no longer the overwhelmingly dominant force.

There is some speculation that the weaponization of the dollar to punish Russia for the invasion of Ukraine has motivated some countries to diversify away from the dollar. Less exposure to the greenback means less exposure to diplomatic and economic pressure from Washington DC.

Declining confidence in the dollar started long before recent events in Ukraine. The Federal Reserve printed trillions of dollars out of thin air in response to COVID-19. This devalued the dollar as evidenced by the surge in prices over the last year. This was the predictable result of creating money out of thin air and handing it out to spend. More money chasing the same amount (or with governments shutting down economies fewer) goods and services will always lead to a general rise in prices.

The only reason the US can get away with this policy to the extent that it does is its role as the world reserve currency. There is a built-in global demand for dollars that helps absorb the money printing. But what happens if that demand drops? What happens if China and other countries decide they don’t want to hold a currency that is losing value every day?

After Russia invaded Ukraine, the US cut some Russian banks, including the central bank, off from the SWIFT payment system.

SWIFT stands for the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication. The system enables financial institutions to send and receive information about financial transactions in a secure, standardized environment. Since the dollar serves as the world reserve currency, SWIFT facilitates the international dollar system.

SWIFT and dollar dominance gives the US a great deal of leverage over other countries.

And the US went a step further. In an unprecedented move, the Federal Reserve froze Russia’s dollar reserves. In effect, Russia’s dollar assets are valueless to the country. It can’t use them at all.

Even if you think Russia deserves these draconian economic sanctions, it’s important to remember that they could come at a cost.

Recent dollar strength compared to other world currencies suggests that the dollar remains in a strong position. But things could shift quickly. How much more borrowing and printing will the world tolerate before they become wary of holding dollars? And will the US propensity to use the dollar as a foreign policy weapon undermine trust in the greenback?

The world is watching.

 

[marsh]

South Korea Is Revamping A Push For Nuclear Energy To Meet Its Emission Targets | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

South Korea Is Revamping A Push For Nuclear Energy To Meet Its Emission Targets

WEDNESDAY, JUL 06, 2022 - 08:05 PM
In energy, it looks like common sense is starting to win out at least somewhere...
South Korea is going to be adding 4 more nuclear reactors by 2030 and will also be extending the life of 10 other plants, according to a new report from Bloomberg. The expansion of its nuclear power capabilities comes amidst a struggle to bring the country to net zero emissions.

More than 30% of the nation's power will soon be provided by nuclear by the end of the decade, the report says. This would be up from 27.4% last year. South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol has been a supporter of nuclear throughout his campaign for president.

Yoon Suk Yeol has said that nuclear could be used alongside of renewables to reach emission targets. Renewable energy’s share of the country's emissions targets will be adjusted under the new government, however it'll maintain the previous government's emissions goals.


President Moon Jae-in’s administration previously had plans to phase out nuclear, a policy that some said could see electricity costs for the country rise 5x by 2050. Additional nuclear reactor builds were scrapped under the administration.

The incoming administration is also going to be expanding strategic reserves for oil and liquefied natural gas. Crude stockpiles, for example, will rise to more than 100 million barrels by 2025, up from 96.5 million barrels currently. LNG reserves will rise to 18.4 million kiloliters by 2034, up from 13.7 million, the report says.

Jang Daul, a government relations and advocacy specialist at Greenpeace East Asia based in Seoul, of course had a problem with the idea, telling Bloomberg: “The fact that the new government is saying renewable energy will be adjusted at a ‘reasonable level’ basically means it will be lowering the renewable electricity target.”

We have long suggested that nuclear power is a pragmatic solution to the world’s energy needs and our contributors have argued that advocates know it is clean, efficient and safe.

 

[marsh]

Automaker CEOs Tangle With Democrats… and the New World Order

More news you won’t hear from the mainstream news media. General Motors CEO Mary Barra and Tesla CEO Elon Musk

truthbasedmedia.com

Automaker CEOs Tangle With Democrats… and the New World Order

by MARK SCHWENDAU
July 7, 2022

General Motors CEO Mary Barra and Tesla CEO Elon Musk have had some serious words for both imposter president Joe Biden and WEF chairman Klaus Schwab as well as others. It all has to do with debates over the Fourth Industrial Revolution related to energy storage. Battery storage of electricity and how fast electric vehicles (EVs) should become a standard as part of the World Economic Forum as part of WEF’s Global Battery Alliance.

The WEF is working to enact a Carbon 55 plan whereby they will legislate a 55% reduction in vehicle emissions by 2030 and achieve “carbon neutrality” by 2035. It is to be noted that anybody awake in high school science class knows you do not get energy out without putting energy in with some expenditure of waste as a byproduct but Klaus Schwab must be betting none of us were awake in this part of science class.

But CEOs like Barra play the game to keep their companies profitable and remain on the map.

In a recent joint letter to Congress the CEOs of several major automakers, which included GM CEO Barra, they urging Congress to lift the Electric Vehicle (EV) tax credit cap. GM, Ford, and Chrysler all pledge to invest more than $170 billion through 2030 in the development of future electric vehicle technology, production, and sales.

The automakers cited recent economic pressures such as supply chain constraints as increasing manufacturing costs and raising prices for consumers.

As these credits stand now, the current $7,500 tax credit is phased out once a manufacturer reaches 200,000 EV units sold. GM hit the cap this year already and is now ineligible for further customer tax credits. Tesla has hit this target cap as well. Toyota and Ford also expect their EV tax credits to expire by the end of the year 2022.

GM recently had its stocks slide in value by 8% in the week ending June and there are other signs of trouble on the horizon for all automakers. Car sales for 2022 are now forecast to be down 17.3%, according to Cox Automotive. Cox revised down their 2022 sales forecast from 15.3 million vehicles to 14.4 million units which are actually below the 14.6 million sold in the Covid pandemic year of 2020.

American Politicians sticking their noses in things like business and industry is never a good thing as Senator Elizabeth Warren (D) (not a Native American) recently demonstrated real time. She came out with a statement that read:

“Converting our public transportation to electric is one of the best ways we can create jobs, modernize our crumbling infrastructure, and fight the climate crisis.”

She then went on with a Tweet:

“General Motors just announced plans to lay off nearly 15,000 workers and shut down plants across the US. This is the same @GM that got a huge tax break from the #GOPTaxScam and spent $4.5 billion on stock buybacks last year. It’s shameful.”

CEO Barra responded in a general way with a press release:

“The actions we are taking today continue our transformation to be highly agile, reliant, and profitable while giving us the flexibility to invest in the future.”

She went on:

“We recognize the need to stay in front of changing market conditions and customer preferences to position our company for long-term success.”

The restructuring of GM is said to save 6 billion dollars a year annually with some of that money going to future EV research and development.

Warren then joined UAW protesters when GM announced plant closures. Where Liz Warren is a proven unhinged progressive liberal out of touch with reality is the fact of the matter is GM CEO Barra recently came out publically stating GM cannot make trucks fast enough to satisfy market demand. So, at a time when America’s Democrat politicians push automakers to move to EVs, the American public is stating they want the opposite, fuel-thirsty pickup trucks and sport utility vehicles.

In a case going back to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton when GM opened a plant in Uzbekistan Clinton offered a soundbite in 2011 of:

“It is a collaboration between Uzbek and American companies and it will serve as a symbol of our friendship and cooperation.”

The announcement came after the GM Foundation donated $684.455 in GM vehicles to the Clinton Foundation. Mary Barra came on board GM in 2013 and exposed Clinton’s charade.

That same plant in Uzbekistan is now involved in a criminal investigation involving fraud, money laundering, and embezzlement.
Peter Flaherty who is CEO of the watchdog group National Legal and Policy Center said, “This episode is another example of the Clintons of how, if you do business with them, they will do something for you.”

So why would the Clintons be interested in Uzbekistan?

Turns out they are major producers of cotton, oil, and precious metals starting with gold!

Then we get into Elon Musk and Twitter. Musk and his non-UAW Tesla operations have been unfairly shunned and treated less than by the union-loving Democrats.

Elon Musk has been critical of Twitter for allowing disinformation on its platform when it favors the Democrats and going so far as to outright ban Republicans who try to call them out.

Musk uses a specific example of a Tweet by Hillary Clinton that remains where she outright lied trying to frame President Donald Trump for impeachment:

“Computer scientists have apparently uncovered a covert server linking the Trump Organization to a Russian-based bank.”

Elon Musk @elonmusk recently revived that old Tweet by responding:

“You are absolutely correct. That tweet is a Clinton campaign hoax for which their campaign lawyer is undergoing a criminal trial.”

Musk then referenced a BBC story where Michael Sussmann was accused of trying to bait the FBI to investigate the bogus claim of the Clinton campaign.
Elon Musk @elonmusk then piled on with:

“Sussmann himself admitted billing the Clinton Campaign to pay for him to present the Russia hoax to the FBI! This is not even questioned by the defense.”

Musk has stated he donated money to the Clinton campaign and voted for her over Trump in 2016 and is now “doubly pissed off about those funds being used for lying.”

Musk has announced he has voted for Democrats in the past but will now vote for Republicans in the future.

Elon Musk has felt that his companies of Tesla and SpaceX have been improperly shunned by the Democrat politicians of Washington and that may have also led to his leaving the party.

An example occurred in this past month of May when Tesla, the world’s leading maker of electric vehicles, had been cut from Standard and Poor’s (S&P’s) Environmental Social & Governance (ESG) Index. The index is said to be a device of globalists pushing climate change and carbon footprints to have control over business and industry in the free world. created for environmentally conscious investors owing to flaws in its business conduct and, ironically, aspects of the company’s low-carbon strategy. The move inflamed Tesla CEO Elon Musk, who caviled, “ESG is a scam.”

Musk has an above-average intellect and he may not be wrong. The ESG system began from the UN in 2004. The Internet offers this information:

“Who Cares Wins (WCW) was initiated by the UN Secretary General and UN Global Compact in 2004 in collaboration with the Swiss government. The initiative was endorsed by 23 financial institutions collectively representing more than US $6 trillion in assets.”

The problem many people in the free world have with the measure of carbon footprints and the ESG system is it neglects the most air polluting portion of the world, Asia, and specifically China. The other issue with this initiative is a significant number of the population does not believe climate change is man-made.

Since Musk is the richest man in the western world at some 220 billion, he could be the one man to actually destroy the new socialist Democrat party of America.

Interestingly, when Tesla lost its ESG ranking in the ESG index, Tesla stock went down. It is easy to see why Barra and Musk can get so angry when games are played behind their backs by globalists who know or care little about business and industry.

Barra always remains classy as Musk can get a little trashy. This could explain America’s love for Elon Musk.

Standard and Poor’s offered a piss poor explanation why Tesla slid off the index list not worth printing here.

 

[marsh]

Tucker Carlson: Biden Selling U.S. Emergency Oil Reserves to China is Impeachable–Possibly Indictable Offense › American Greatness

Fox News host Tucker Carlson said Wednesday night that Joe Biden should be impeached, and possibly indicted due to his "crazy and dangerous" energy policies. The Biden administration has been selling…

amgreatness.com

Tucker Carlson: Biden Selling U.S. Emergency Oil Reserves to China is Impeachable–Possibly Indictable Offense

By Debra Heine

July 6, 2022

Fox News host Tucker Carlson said Wednesday night that Joe Biden should be impeached, and possibly indicted due to his “crazy and dangerous” energy policies.

The Biden administration has been selling U.S. emergency oil reserves to other countries—including our greatest adversary, China—while Americans struggle financially due to high gas prices.

The regime sent more than 5 million barrels of oil from the U.S. emergency reserves to Europe and Asia last month, according to data and sources, Reuters reported, “even as U.S. gasoline and diesel prices hit record highs.”

Biden on March 31 authorized the release of 1 million barrels of oil per day from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) for the next six months, totaling 180 million barrels..

According to U.S. Customs data, 470,000 barrels of sour crude were shipped from the Big Hill SPR storage site in Texas to Trieste, Italy. “Trieste is home to a pipeline that sends oil to refineries in central Europe,” Reuters reported.

Cargoes of SPR crude were also headed to the Netherlands and to a Reliance (RELI.NS) refinery in India, an industry source said. A third cargo headed to China, another source said. At least one cargo of crude from the West Hackberry SPR site in Louisiana was set to be exported in July, a shipping source added.

The releases are draining the SPR, which last month fell to the lowest since 1986, Reuters reported, yet gas prices have remained high.

“Crude and fuel prices would likely be higher if (the SPR releases) hadn’t happened, but at the same time, it isn’t really having the effect that was assumed,” oil analyst Matt Smith told Reuters.

The regime’s decision to export the nation’s precious oil reserves to other countries appears to have blunted any positive impacts of the SPR releases.

As gas prices continued to soar over the 4th of July weekend, Biden ludicrously called on gas station owners to lower their prices.



On Fox News Wednesday evening, Tucker Carlson said the Biden regime’s decision to release the reserves is “so crazy, and so dangerous, that only someone who was trying to intentionally harm the United States would even consider it.”

Carlson pointed out that it shouldn’t have been necessary to drain our emergency oil reserves since the United States is rich in natural resources.

“We can produce the energy here, and in fact, were producing the energy here until Joe Biden took office,” Carlson noted, adding that—while irresponsible—the massive SPR releases should have reduced gas prices in the short term.

Amazingly, he noted, that didn’t happen.

“They haven’t dropped. They’ve kept going up,” he said.

“It turns out, the oil being released isn’t for us. It’s going to India and China! As gas prices hit record highs in the United States and many American citizens can’t afford to fuel their own cars, the Biden administration is selling off our emergency oil reserves to CHINA,” Carlson exclaimed.

“That’s not an indictable offense? Certainly it’s an impeachable one. And they should impeach him for that.”

Carlson argued that the move is the equivalent of selling the Redwood Forest, or the water rights to the Great Lakes.

“If you’re keeping track. They didn’t even need it,” he continued. “China and India already have access to very cheap oil from Russia. Why? Thanks to the Biden administration’s lunatic ban on Russian oil imports for moral reasons.”

Russia has raked in 13 billion dollars in additional revenue from India and China compared to the same period last year. This is how we’re punishing out enemies? By selling off our own most valuable assets? And watching Russia, and India, and—my God—China get richer?

And on top of getting all that cheap Russian oil, China is getting petroleum from our emergency Petrol reserve.

The crude is the best we have and we’re giving it away to a government whose whole goal is to displace us on the world stage and crush us. The Chinese will be cruel masters when the run the world. They’re not like us, at all.

Carlson pointed out that China is “a longtime business partner of the Biden family,” and Congress should be investigating that.

View: https://youtu.be/c_yRBwxn-RA
18:39 min

Former Director of National Intelligence and Congressman John Ratcliffe offered another explanation as to why the Communist Chinese would have so much influence over the Biden administration.

“Joe Biden’s top economic advisor is Brian Dietz who was a BlackRock executive,” Ratcliffe told Fox News host Laura Ingraham. “Last week he named Tom Donilon his top foreign advisory on China, also a BlackRock executive.”

The former Texas congressman explained the significance of the connection.

“For folks that don’t know, BlackRock is a U.S. investment firm that has been more collaborative and cooperative and complicit with the Chinese Communist Party than any U.S. investment firm,” he said.

“To put it in simple terms: The Chinese Communist Party controls BlackRock and BlackRock makes policies in the Biden administration. The idea that these folks are going to be tough with China is really wishful thinking.”

 

[marsh]

Thread by @TuckerMax on Thread Reader App

@TuckerMax: 6 months ago I talked about the coming chaos. I called it a "managed decline" & many people didn't understand. Here's an example of what I mean (and a warning): The Dutch Farmer Strike (and resulting...…

threadreaderapp.com

Tucker Max

6 months ago I talked about the coming chaos.

I called it a "managed decline" & many people didn't understand.

Here's an example of what I mean (and a warning):

The Dutch Farmer Strike (and resulting forced starvation).

If you haven't heard of this yet...buckle up.

Dutch Farmer Strike started b/c the Dutch Government cut nitrogen emissions by stealing farmers land and putting them out of business.

No really.

Two summaries (linking foreign media b/c US media isn't covering):


Dutch farmers protest livestock cuts to curb nitrogenThousands of tractor-driving farmers demonstrated in central Netherlands on Wednesday, causing widespread traffic chaos as they protested against the government's far-reaching plans to cut nitrogen em…Dutch farmers protest livestock cuts to curb nitrogen (See article that follows)


Explained: Why are Dutch farmers protesting over emissions?Some 40,000 farmers gathered last week in the central Netherlands’ agricultural heartland to protest the government's plan to slash emissions of damaging pollutants. What is the government proposing, …Explained: Why Dutch farmers are protesting over emissions (See second article that follows)

The Dutch Farmers reacted the way you'd expect: they got pissed and protested.

So the Dutch government is now trying to kill them.

No, really:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1544518050564788224

View: https://twitter.com/i/status/1544518050564788224
.15 min

There are tons more you can find, the point is, the Dutch Government feels totally OK using lethal force against people they are openly stealing from and oppressing.

This is BIG. It goes way beyond the politics of a small European country.

The Dutch are the WORLDS 2ND BIGGEST AG EXPORTER (after US).

Why'd the Dutch Government do this?

To meet EU "climate goals."

No seriously.

Unelected bureaucrats made up numbers, and here we are.
They KNOW this is going to starve people around the world.

How can I say that for sure?

They are already trying to justify and rationalize.

And this is not remotely the end. This is only the beginning.

So many indications this is intentional and created by some sort of plan:



And of course, they keep trying to sell people on eating bugs.

This is my favorite propaganda about this so far. Its...mind blowing to watch the brazenness of it:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1544401382719033347

View: https://twitter.com/ryangerritsen/status/1544401382719033347?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1544411701885419523%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es3_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fthreadreaderapp.com%2Fthread%2F1544684135427579906.html
1:51 min

This thread is not about convincing people this is coming.

It's HERE and HAPPENING.

If you don't choose to see it or believe the evidence, thats fine. Reality will catch up to you soon enough.

This thread is for those who get it, but haven't really started preparing.

Let me be very clear:

If you don't have some food stored, and access or ability to grow/produce your own food, you're putting yourself at a serious risk of at best total subjugation, and worst death.
Obviously I can't predict what'll happen.

I think America will resist this much better than most, for two reasons:

1. We have an armed citizenry willing and able to defend themselves against this tyranny, and
2. Our size and political structure make this sort of control hard
BUT--they're going to try some form of this here, and resistance won't center on guns or politics long term.

Resistance will center on the ability of communities to be (mostly) sovereign.

Can you produce what you need or not?

If so, you'll stay free.

If not...probably NGMI.
Ugh--I linked the same two violence videos, my bad.

Here are more:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1544436161090838528

View: https://twitter.com/i/status/1544436161090838528
.21 min

And of course, Biden even warned about this earlier.

They KNOW their policies are causing this, and just expect you to roll over and take it:

View: https://youtu.be/-C3QiEah7mc
.40 min

Mi

 

[marsh]

Dutch farmers protest livestock cuts to curb nitrogen

Thousands of tractor-driving farmers demonstrated in central Netherlands on Wednesday, causing widespread traffic chaos as they protested against the government's far-reaching plans to cut nitrogen emissions.

www.france24.com

Dutch farmers protest livestock cuts to curb nitrogen
Issued on: 22/06/2022 - 15:54Modified: 22/06/2022 - 15:52


Tractors drive down the A1 highway on their way to the rural farmers' protest in Stroe Bart Maat ANP/AFP

Stroe (Netherlands) (AFP) – Thousands of tractor-driving farmers demonstrated in central Netherlands on Wednesday, causing widespread traffic chaos as they protested against the government's far-reaching plans to cut nitrogen emissions.

In one of their largest-ever demonstrations, the farmers demanded the scrapping of recently announced plans by the Hague-based government, which could see a 30 percent reduction in livestock.

The Netherlands, the world's second-largest agricultural exporter, is one of the top greenhouse gas emitters in Europe -- especially of nitrogen -- with much of this blamed on cattle-produced manure and fertiliser.

But farmers say they are being unfairly targeted as opposed to big business and industry, with many vowing to resist any plans to scale down or close farms.

Traffic came to a standstill for kilometres around the town of Stroe, east of Amsterdam, as farmers and their tractors arrived from across the country to protest.

'Crazy'
"It's not normal, what's being done to the farmers," one of the protesters Jan Poorter, 74, told AFP.

"It must happen gradually and that's not the case," added Poorter, a retired businessman as hundreds of tractors gathered on a field, many with horns blaring and safety lights flashing.


Hundreds of tractors gathered on a field, many with horns blaring and safety lights flashing Sem van der Wal ANP/AFP

"You can't just close farms that are hundreds of years old. You just can't!"

Protesters carried signs saying "The future of farmers is being destroyed" and "Our children are afraid."

Despite the numbers involved and the anger on display, the demonstration remained peaceful as an official programme got underway.

Police however did intervene when a number of farmers drove onto the wrong side of the highway past a police road block, the NOS public broadcaster said.

Emergency services handed out water to farmers and motorists trapped in traffic as temperatures rose.

Prime Minister Mark Rutte said earlier this month the government's plan to cut nitrogen emissions "will have an enormous impact on farmers".

"This sector will change, but unfortunately there's no choice, we have to bring down nitrogen emissions," he said.

The Dutch government plans to cut greenhouse gas nitrogen by as much as 70 percent in 131 key areas -- many of them close to nature reserves -- to reach climate goals by 2030.

For farmers this means a 40-percent drop in emissions is expected, which would require around 30 percent less cattle, according to reports.

The government's announcement comes in the wake of a 2019 ruling by the country's highest administrative court, saying the Netherlands was not doing enough to protect its natural areas.

Thousands of pro-environment protesters marched on Sunday in the port city of Rotterdam to hail measures to reach climate goals fixed in Paris in 2015.

 

[marsh]

Explained: Why Dutch farmers are holding protests over emissions

Some 40,000 farmers gathered last week in the central Netherlands’ agricultural heartland to protest the government's plan to slash emissions of damaging pollutants. What is the government proposing, and why are farmers protesting?

indianexpress.com

Explained: Why Dutch farmers are protesting over emissions
Some 40,000 farmers gathered last week in the central Netherlands’ agricultural heartland to protest the government's plan to slash emissions of damaging pollutants. What is the government proposing, and why are farmers protesting?

By: AP | The Hague |
Updated: July 7, 2022 10:56:36 am

Dutch farmers protesting against the government’s plans to reduce emissions of nitrogen oxide and ammonia gather for a demonstration at Stroe, Netherlands, Wednesday, June 22, 2022. (AP Photo/Aleksandar Furtula)

Farmers protested around the Netherlands as lawmakers voted Tuesday on proposals to slash emissions of damaging pollutants, a plan that will likely force farmers to cut their livestock herds or stop work altogether.

The government says emissions of nitrogen oxide and ammonia, which livestock produce, must be drastically reduced close to nature areas that are part of a network of protected habitats for endangered plants and wildlife stretching across the 27-nation European Union.

As tractors gathered outside the parliament building, Prime Minister Mark Rutte said farmers have the right to protest but not to break the law.

“Freedom of speech and the right to demonstrate are a vital part of our democratic society, and I will always defend them,” Rutte said. “But … it is not acceptable to create dangerous situations, it is not acceptable to intimidate officials, we will never accept that.”




What is the government proposing?
The ruling coalition wants to cut emissions of pollutants, predominantly nitrogen oxide and ammonia, by 50% nationwide by 2030. Ministers call the proposal an “unavoidable transition” that aims to improve air, land and water quality.

They warn that farmers will have to adapt or face the prospect of shuttering their businesses.

“The honest message … is that not all farmers can continue their business,” and those who do will likely have to farm differently, the government said in a statement this month as it unveiled emission reduction targets.

Livestock produce ammonia in their urine and feces. The government in the past has called on farmers to use feed for their animals that contains less protein as a way of reducing ammonia emissions. The problem is compounded in the Netherlands, which is known for its intensive farming practices, with large numbers of livestock kept on small areas of land.

It is not only farmers being targeted. In the past, the government also has cut the national maximum speed limit on highways from 130 kilometers per hour (80 miles per hour) to 100 kmh during the day as a way of reducing nitrogen oxide created by vehicle engines.

The government has been forced to take action after a series of court rulings that blocked infrastructure and construction projects because of fears they would cause emissions that breach environmental rules. It is giving provincial authorities a year to work out ways to meet the emission reduction targets.

Thousands of farmers drove their tractors along roads and highways across the Netherlands, heading for a mass protest against the Dutch government’s plans to rein in emissions of nitrogen oxide and ammonia. (AP Photo/Aleksandar Furtula)

What are Dutch farmers doing?
Some 40,000 farmers gathered last week in the central Netherlands’ agricultural heartland to protest the government’s plans. Many arrived by tractor, snarling traffic around the country.

On Monday and into Tuesday, farmers again took their protests to crowded highways, driving slowly along the roads or stopping altogether. Some have dumped hay bales on roads, and small groups demonstrated at town and city halls, in some cases starting bonfires outside the buildings.

Some farmers set hay bales ablaze Tuesday alongside highways, while others gathered in towns and cities, including The Hague.

Farmers argue that they are being unfairly targeted as polluters while other industries, such as aviation, construction and transport, also are contributing to emissions and face less far-reaching rules. They also say the government is not giving them a clear picture of their futures amid the proposed reforms.

What are the nature areas that are threatened?
The government has published a map with reduction targets across the country based on proximity to areas designated as part of the EU’s Natura 2000 network of vulnerable and endangered plant and animal habitats. There are Natura 2000 sites across the 27 member states, covering 18% of the bloc’s land area and 8% of its marine territory.

On its website, the European Commission says conservation and sustainable use of Natura 200 areas is “largely centered on people working with nature rather than against it. However, Member States must ensure that the sites are managed in a sustainable manner, both ecologically and economically.”

Dutch farmers argue that other EU countries are not clamping down on the agricultural industry as hard as the Netherlands. During a protest Monday, a group of farmers at a Dutch Natura 2000 region near the German border put up flags and a “Welcome to Germany” sign to symbolically make it part of the neighboring country.

How important is agriculture to the Dutch economy?
Agriculture — from dairy farming to growing crops in fields and greenhouses — is a significant part of the Dutch economy.

According to a national farming lobby group, LTO, there are nearly 54,000 agricultural businesses in the Netherlands with exports totaling 94.5 billion euros in 2019.

 

[marsh]

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

www.bloomberg.com

Natural Gas Soars 700%, Becoming Driving Force in the New Cold War

Shortages of the fuel are rippling throughout the global economy, threatening recessions and a further wave of inflation.

The war in Ukraine catalyzed the gas crisis by taking out a crucial chunk of supply. Now the scramble to fill that gap is turning into a worldwide stampede, as countries race to secure scarce cargoes of liquefied natural gas.

Photographer: Dwayne Senior/Bloomberg
By
Gerson Freitas Jr,
Stephen Stapczynski, and
Anna Shiryaevskaya
July 4, 2022, 9:01 PM PDT

One morning in early June, a fire broke out at an obscure facility in Texas that takes natural gas from US shale basins, chills it into a liquid and ships it overseas. It was extinguished in 40 minutes or so. No one was injured.

It sounds like a story for the local press, at most — except that more than three weeks later, financial and political shockwaves are still reverberating across Europe, Asia and beyond.

The Freeport LNG facility in 2020. While the fire in early June was extinguished after 40 minutes or so, three weeks later the financial and political shockwaves are still reverberating.
Source: Freeport LNG

That’s because natural gas is the hottest commodity in the world right now. It’s a key driver of global inflation, posting price jumps that are extreme even by the standards of today’s turbulent markets — some 700% in Europe since the start of last year, pushing the continent to the brink of recession. It’s at the heart of a dawning era of confrontation between the great powers, one so intense that in capitals across the West, plans to fight climate change are getting relegated to the back-burner.

In short, natural gas now rivals oil as the fuel that shapes geopolitics. And there isn’t enough of it to go around.

It’s the war in Ukraine that catalyzed the gas crisis to a new level, by taking out a crucial chunk of supply. Russia is cutting back on pipeline deliveries to Europe — which says it wants to stop buying from Moscow anyway, if not quite yet. The scramble to fill that gap is turning into a worldwide stampede, as countries race to secure scarce cargoes of liquefied natural gas ahead of the northern-hemisphere winter.

The World Needs More Gas But There Isn't Enough
Video on website 2:21

The World Needs More Gas But There Isn't Enough

The New Oil?
Germany says gas shortfalls could trigger a Lehman Brothers-like collapse, as Europe’s economic powerhouse faces the unprecedented prospect of businesses and consumers running out of power. The main Nord Stream pipeline that carries Russian gas to Germany is due to shut down on July 11 for ten days of maintenance, and there’s growing fear that Moscow may not reopen it. Group of Seven leaders are seeking ways to curb Russia’s gas earnings, which help finance the invasion of Ukraine — and backing new LNG investments. And poorer countries that built energy systems around cheap gas are now struggling to afford it.

“This is the 1970s for natural gas,” says Kevin Book, managing director at ClearView Energy Partners LLC, a Washington-based research firm. “The world is now thinking about gas as it once thought about oil, and the essential role that gas plays in modern economies and the need for secure and diverse supply have become very visible.”

Who's Dependent?
Share of imported natural gas in total energy consumption

Source: Bloomberg calculations based on 2021 data from BP Statistical Review of World Energy

Natural gas used to be a sleepy commodity that changed hands in fragmented regional markets. Now, even though globalization appears to be in retreat across much of the world economy, the gas trade is headed in the opposite direction. It’s globalizing fast — but maybe not fast enough.

Many countries have turned to natural gas as part of a transition to cleaner energy, as they seek to phase out use of dirtier fossil fuels like coal and in some cases nuclear power too. Major producers — like the US, which has quickly risen up the ranks of LNG exporters to rival Qatar as the world’s biggest — are seeing surging demand for their output. Forty-four countries imported LNG last year, almost twice as many as a decade ago. But the fuel is much harder to shift around the planet than oil, because it has to be liquefied at places like the Freeport plant in Texas.

And that’s why a minor explosion at a facility seen as nothing special by industry insiders — it’s not the biggest or most sophisticated of the seven terminals that send LNG from American shores – had such an outsized impact.

The Mitte Combined Heat and Power natural gas power plant sits behind residential apartment buildings in Berlin. Germany faces the unprecedented prospect of businesses and consumers running out of power.
Photographer: Krisztian Bocsi/Bloomberg

‘The Current Crisis’
Gas prices in Europe and Asia surged more than 60% in the weeks since Freeport was forced to temporarily shut down, a period that’s also seen further supply cuts by Russia. In the US, by contrast, prices for the fuel plunged almost 40% — because the outage means more of the gas will remain available for domestic use.

The Big Squeeze
Benchmark natural gas prices have skyrocketed in Europe and Asia -- and edged higher in the US too



Source: Bloomberg
Note: Europe = TTF futures; Asia = JKM Swap futures and US = Henry Hub futures. MMBtu = million British Thermal Units

There were already plenty of signs of extreme tightness in the market. War and Covid may be roiling every commodity from wheat to aluminum and zinc, but little compares to the stomach-churning volatility of global gas prices. In Asia, the fuel is now about three times as expensive as a year ago. In Europe, it’s one of the main reasons why inflation just hit a fresh record.

Natural gas remains cheaper in the US — but even there, futures had more than doubled this year before the Freeport shutdown. With key political allies from Germany to Ukraine desperate to buy American gas, US manufacturers warn that more sales abroad will mean higher costs at home. The market reaction to the Freeport fire illustrates a “clear connection between LNG exports and the inflationary impacts to domestic prices for natural gas and electricity,” says Paul Cicio, president of the Industrial Energy Consumers of America.

To meet all the new demand will require a massive wave of investment in supply. That’s already under way, and it got a boost at last week’s meeting of the Western world’s biggest economies, where G-7 leaders vowed to back public investments in gas projects — saying they’re “necessary in response to the current crisis.”

Forty-four countries imported LNG last year, almost twice as many as a decade ago.
Photographer: Asim Hafeez/Bloomberg

Among the urgent infrastructure needs:

• Export facilities: The rush for LNG is accelerating projects in North America and beyond. Last month, Cheniere Energy Inc. greenlighted a terminal expansion in Texas. In April, a Canadian LNG project backed by Indonesian tycoon Sukanto Tanoto got the go-ahead to begin construction. In Qatar, Exxon Mobil Corp. and Shell Plc are among energy giants with stakes in a $29 billion project to boost LNG exports.
  
  “You have global gas prices so high that they incentivize the signing of new long-term contracts,” says Samantha Dart, head of natural gas research at Goldman Sachs. “We are seeing those announcements coming left and right, with a lot of US proposed liquefaction facilities.”
  
• Import terminals: In Europe, plans for about 20 terminals have been announced or sped up since the Ukraine war began. Germany, which has no LNG terminals, has allocated about $3 billion to charter four floating ones and connect them to the country’s network. The first one is supposed to go online around the end of this year. Emphasizing the need for speed, Vice-Chancellor Robert Habeck pointed out that Tesla Inc. managed to build a factory near Berlin in just two years, and said it’s time to cut through German red tape. “First, dig the trench where the pipe is to go in,” he said. “Then, the permit comes.”
  
  China, the world’s top LNG buyer last year, is in the midst of one of the largest buildouts the industry has ever witnessed. Ten new import terminals are slated to come online in 2023 alone, and capacity will roughly double in the five years through 2025, according to BloombergNEF.
  
• Pipelines: Even with more capacity to receive shipments of LNG and turn it back into gas form — a process known as regasification — Europe lacks infrastructure to move it where it might be needed. Spain, for example, has Europe’s biggest regasification facilities — but it only has two pipeline connections to France via the Pyrenees, capable of carrying little more than one-tenth of those volumes, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.
  
• Tankers: Shipyards in South Korea, where most of the world’s LNG tankers are built, are seeing a surge in orders that’s leaving them short of skilled labor. They’ve been forced to look outside the country to places like Thailand for welders, electricians and painters, raising their quotas for migrant workers.

In some cases all of this means a U-turn away from policies aimed at combating climate change -– especially in Europe. Government-backed lenders like the European Investment Bank and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, which had been focused on financing renewable energy, have signaled a shift and said they’re now more willing to back gas projects.

But Europe’s breakneck efforts won’t be enough, according to Bloomberg Intelligence, which calculates that LNG imports could meet 40% of the region’s gas needs by 2026 — double last year’s figure, but still far short of the volumes that Russia has been supplying.

German Vice-Chancellor Robert Habeck visited Wilhelmshaven in May for the first pile driving at the future jetty for a planned liquefied natural gas terminal.
Photographer: Sina Schuldt/Picture Alliance/Getty Images

‘Never More Evident’
That’s why warnings of a gas-driven slump in Europe’s economies are escalating.

 

[marsh]

(COMMENT: A series of articles leading up to the current fuels crisis.)

Destroying the US: As Americans struggle to fill gas tanks, Biden ships 5 million barrels of oil to Europe

With the American people continuing to pay near record prices at the pump, the Biden administration sent some 5 million barrels of oil to Europe and Asia, the ultimate middle finger to Americans

www.lawenforcementtoday.com

While Americans struggle to pay for gas, Biden ships 5 million barrels to Europe, Asia

Destroying the USA: As Americans struggle to fill their gas tanks, Biden ships 5 million barrels of oil to Asia, Europe
Posted by: Jim Patrick|July 6, 2022 |CategoriesEditorial, Featured, Must Reads

The following includes content which is editorial in nature and which expresses the opinions of the writer.
—
WASHINGTON, DC- As Americans continue to pay near record prices for gasoline and home heating oil, the economy wrecker-in-chief Joe Biden has seen to it that over five million barrels of oil from the strategic reserve which was supposed to be used to hedge against higher prices here instead released it to Asia and Europe, Reuters reports.

In October, Biden announced he was releasing oil from the reserves ostensibly to ease energy prices in the U.S. Instead, it has had little to no effect and in fact, energy prices continued to rise after Biden’s move. Still, sending much-needed oil overseas shows how much Biden truly cares about the American people.

Meanwhile, the New York Post says that the strategic reserve is now at its lowest level since 1986. Yet Biden, still licking the boots of radical environmentalists, refuses to restore our energy sector to Trump-era levels.

Last Wednesday, Brent crude futures rose about 1.3% to around $104 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate rose 0.65% to rise above $100 per barrel.

As the American economy roared toward a recession over the past few weeks, prices eased somewhat, however that hasn’t translated to huge savings at the pump.

In California, where their governor is having delusions of grandeur about a possible 2024 presidential run, gas prices are averaging $6.22 per gallon, which makes that state’s gas prices the highest in the nation. Meanwhile, Gov. Gavin Newsom is paying for ads in Florida to take potshots at the best governor in the country, Ron DeSantis, while his state continues its declined into third world status.

AAA is warning that despite the fact gas prices have lowered by approximately 15 cents a gallon over the past three weeks, the relief being felt by motorists is likely short-lived, as summer driving season is upon us and that will likely stress the energy sector even more.
The Biden administration defended its decision to release oil from the strategic reserves, claiming that by doing so they prevented prices from rising even further, which most economists have dismissed outright. And now that we’ve learned they shipped over five million barrels overseas, their argument holds even less water.

“The SPR remains a critical energy security tool to address global crude oil supply disruptions,” a Department of Energy spokesperson told Reuters.
They added that the releases ensured a “stable” supply of crude oil.

According to U.S. Customs data, Phillips 66, the fourth-largest oil refiner in the country, sent about 470,000 barrels of sour crude from the Big Hill SPR storage facility in Texas to Trieste, Italy. That port is where oil is pumped into a pipeline to transport it to destinations within Central Europe. The EU is in the process of trying to replace energy sources lost as a result of sanctions placed on Russia in response to its invasion of Ukraine.

Meanwhile, Atlantic Trading & Marketing, a division of French oil company TotalEnergies, exported two cargoes of 560,000 barrels each, US Customs data showed. In addition, shipments of SPR crude were headed to the Netherlands and to a Reliance refinery in India, the Post reported, citing an industry source. A third cargo is headed to—wait for it—China, according to yet another source.

One other shipment of crude was being sent from a strategic reserve site in Louisiana sometime this month, another source said.

Inventories of US crude are at their lowest level since 2004 with refineries running near peak levels. Refineries on the Gulf Coast were at 97.9% utilization, the highest level in over three years.

Fox News host Tucker Carlson was all over this story on “Tucker Carlson Tonight”:

Today in Energy reports however that due to the closure of a number of refineries in 2020, the atmospheric crude oil distillation capacity, a measure of refinery capacity in the United States, dropped 4.5% to a total of 18.1 million barrels per day at the start of 2021.

According to the source, at the beginning of 2021 129 refineries were either operating or idle in the U.S., down from 135 operable refineries at the beginning of 2020.

According to the Motley Fool, Chevron’s CEO Mike Wirth said he doesn’t believe another new oil refinery will ever be built in the U.S. He noted that even if oil producers such as Chevron increased their production, there’s not enough refining capacity to meet the demand for petroleum products such as gasoline, jet fuel and diesel.

“You’re looking at committing capital 10 years out, that will need decades to offer a return for shareholders, in a policy environment where governments around the world are saying, ‘We don’t want these products to be used in the future,’” Wirth said, explaining why in today’s environment it doesn’t make financial sense for companies to invest in refinery capacity.

In other words, given the rhetoric coming out of Biden and the rest of the environmental wackos who populate our government, it doesn’t make sense for companies such as Chevron to commit the time and capital necessary to build a refinery, given the desire to shift to cleaner, albeit far less reliable forms of energy.

Meanwhile, the incompetent boob in the White House has shifted from “Putin’s price hike” and “big oil” and found a new boogeyman to blame high gas prices on.

According to Fox News, Biden is now blaming gas station owners and franchisees for high gas prices, completely ignorant of the fact that such owners operate on paper-thin margins.

Sal Risalvato, executive director of the New Jersey Convenience Association pushed back against Biden’s claim, arguing on Jesse Watters Primetime that his allegations are misplaced.

“I was pretty annoyed that [Biden] would make the suggestion that it’s the corner gas station, the quintessential small business in America that is causing this problem,” he told Watters.

Risalvato, a former gas station owner went on to slam Biden, claiming his statements are “so untethered from reality” that Biden either misspoke (doubtful) or completely lacks understanding of how pricing at gas stations work.

“[Gas station owners] are not making any more than they were a month ago, a month before, or even a year ago,” he said, noting that gas station owners have zero control over the price increases.

One gas station owner expressed his frustration over Biden’s brain-dead comments to host Todd Pirro on Fox & Friends First, telling the host:

“[Gas prices] are hurting us in a lot of ways possible,” said Faizan Sarwar. Wee really don’t have any type of control on these gas prices at all especially when these fuel companies actually email with what’s going to be next,” he said.

Let’s Go Brandon!
______________________________________________________________________
For more on energy and something called “demand destruction,” we invite you to read our prior piece about that impending nightmare.

DIG DEEPER
This editorial is brought to you by a former chief of police and current staff writer for Law Enforcement Today.
—
USA- Have you ever heard the term “demand destruction?” If you have not, you soon will.
In basic terms, it is a permanent downward shift on the demand curve in the direction of lower demand of a commodity, in this case energy products, typically induced by a prolonged period of high prices or constrained supply.

Over the past several weeks, we have seen skyrocketing energy costs. Those of course are the visible costs which we see every time we go to the gas station or fill our oil tank at home.

However, most people lose sight of the true costs of increasing energy through products manufactured using fossil fuels.

Last week, the U.S. and other countries cut off the import of Russian oil, which we were told was a necessary “sacrifice” to stick it to Putin. We were warned by the feckless Joe Biden and his spokesperson, as well as by media and members of Congress that paying higher prices at the pump is “patriotic.”

We were lectured by the insufferable Stephen Colbert that paying $10 or $14 a gallon for gas was the right thing to do, and all we had to do is buy a $100,000 Tesla like he drives.

What Biden, Colbert and others conveniently forgot to mention is that fossil fuels are so much more than gasoline, natural gas, and home heating oil. Glenn Beck of The Blaze explained that $150 barrels of oil will impact a lot more than gasoline.

As the price of oil increases, get ready to hear a lot more about demand destruction. Because when the price of a barrel of oil goes up, a lot of things will follow. When a commodity is priced so high that consumers find alternative ways to use left of it, that is demand destruction.

Aside from being a result of increasing commodity prices, it is also, Beck explains, an economic tactic.

In this case, don’t dismiss the probability that this is being done on purpose in order to hamstring the American people with the Green New Deal.

After all, why would Biden insist on maintaining his restrictions on drilling, fracking, and other means of acquiring American oil if he wasn’t deliberately trying to push the leftist green agenda?

“We’re in demand destruction right now with oil and…I think this is being orchestrated,” Beck said. “I think this is another thing that just didn’t feel right. I think our demand destruction of oil was orchestrated.”

Beck continued, “I want to explain…why I say it’s really bad to get off Russian oil without opening up our own oil fields. I like that morally we’re trying to help Ukraine and we do it by canceling, cutting off their blood supply over in Russia, but we’re also cutting it off here and the rest of the world.”

What most Americans don’t understand is that only about half of each barrel of oil is turned into gasoline. The other half is turned into all manner of things, including but not limited to:
Solvents, ink, insecticides, sweaters, bicycle tires, tires, dresses, petroleum jelly, motorcycle helmets, life jackets, insect repellent, fertilizer, diesel fuel, motor oil, roofing, linoleum, nylon rope, water pipes, shampoo, paint rollers, toothbrushes, combs, paint brushes, bandages, ammonia, shaving cream, refrigerators, toothpaste, iPhones, and hundreds of other products.

“There’s going to be demand destruction,” Beck warned. “So, if you thought that there was [already] a problem with supply and demand, you ain’t seen nothing yet,” he continued.

“So when you see the price of everything going up, just remember, the people who are leading you to this are the ones that say we have to get rid of fossil fuels. Less than half of each barrel of gasoline.

The rest of that barrel goes to make everything else we have grown accustomed to. Everything else. So, when your friends tell you that the price [of gas] is worth it—really?

“You cannot disconnect the price of oil, and the price of gasoline, from the price of food or plastic or anything else that you are used to buying. Demand destruction is coming, and it is coming fast.”
_________________________________________________
For more on the energy situation and Putin, we invite you to:
DIG DEEPER
The following contains editorial content which is the opinion of the writer.
—
As Law Enforcement Today and other media outlets have been warning, Russian strongman Vladimir Putin launched an attack on Ukraine Thursday, which culminated months of posturing by Moscow.

Now, the United States finds itself in a quandary, because unlike just over one year ago, our country is reliant upon Russian oil for a significant amount of our oil imports. Thus, the United States is, in fact, helping to support Putin’s military incursion into Ukraine, according to Larry Kudlow of Fox Business.

Just a few days ago, Joe Biden announced a series of sanctions against Russia which were described as “a very weak low-level set” of such sanctions. How concerned was Russia after Biden’s announcement? Their stock market rose 6.5%, whereas prior to the sanctions announcement the stock market had been in a freefall.

One such sanction Biden imposed was decertifying the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, but didn’t do so until Germany already had. He announced a couple of weak sanctions on a couple of banks in the Donbas and Lugansk regions, however again, that isn’t expected to have a long-term negative effect.

To show you how insignificant they are, the GDP for the entire nation of Ukraine is about $160 billion, while Donbas checks in at under $6 billion; Lugansk? Around one billion dollars or so.

Fox Business compared that to the teeny, tiny state of Delaware, where Biden spends every weekend. The GDP for that state is $76 billion. In other words, Biden’s sanctions are like spitting into the wind during a category 4 hurricane—totally insignificant.

In announcing his tepid sanctions, Biden said:

“My administration is using every tool at our disposal to protect American businesses and consumers from rising prices at the pump. As I said last week, defending freedom will have cost for us as well and here at home. We need to be honest about that.”

In other words, get ready for $4 to $5 a gallon gas by the 4th of July.

Kudlow said that Biden needs “to be honest about the damage you’re doing to the American energy industry.” Kudlow noted Biden’s actions since he was inaugurated, basically doing everything possible to drive up fuel prices all in the name of the “Green New Deal.”

Kudlow noted that Biden’s “jihad against fossil fuels has held down production in the face of rising demand and that has been a key factor in driving up world oil prices towards $100 a barrel.”

Domestic oil production in the United States has dropped by nearly 2 million barrels per day (BPD) since Biden was inaugurated, going from 13 million BPD to 11 million BPD. That has led to a spike in oil prices and by extension has stepped up US reliance on Russian oil. Where under former President Trump the United States was energy independent, and actually a net-exporter of oil, that is no longer the case.

Much of Russia’s military budget is funded by the sale of oil to foreign nations, so by increasing our reliance on Russian oil, the United States is, by extension, funding Putin’s incursion into Ukraine.

“Mr. Biden’s energy policies have been utterly self-destructive to America, and have directly empowered Vladimir Putin and all of Putin’s crazy ahistorical, romanticized, inaccurate vision of history,” Kudlow said. “Russia is a nothing-heimer economy—roughly $1.5 trillion worth of GDP. The U.S. is $23 trillion.”

How serious is Biden about getting U.S. fuel prices under control? Not very, as evidenced by a New York Times headline on Feb. 20 which read “Biden Administration Halts New Drilling in Legal Fight Over Climate Costs.”

That’s right, in the middle of skyrocketing fuel prices, the administration once again kowtowed to the environmentalists and halted new drilling. Kudlow noted the article said the Interior Department would be “indefinitely freezing” decisions about new federal oil and gas drilling.

Oh, we’ve seen some bloviating about releasing oil from the strategic reserve and possibly having a brief relief from the national gas tax, but these are temporary measures that will have little if any impact on the price at the pump.

Yet another area that impacts the cost of fuel at the pump is some bogus metric called the “social cost of carbon,” which Kudlow notes is a “phony metric drummed up by extreme greenies.” What the social cost of carbon is an analysis of carbon emissions from “upstream production and downstream consumption,” even though as Kudlow notes there isn’t a reliable way to measure either, citing a Wall Street Journal editorial.

A number of US attorneys general have slammed the “social cost” nonsense, with Jeff Landry of Louisiana calling it “voodoo economics.” The AGs in Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Mississippi, South Dakota, Texas, West Virginia, and Wyoming have current lawsuits pending against the federal government over the issue.

Biden’s claim that he will look to protect the American people when they pull up to the pump isn’t jiving with his policies. Last week, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission revised its policies for natural pipelines and export terminals by using the social cost metric to stop new pipelines.

If Biden were serious about putting sanctions on Russia, he would tell American oil companies to go back to what they were doing under the Trump administration, while pulling back on all the tax and regulatory barriers he put in place, Kudlow notes.

As Kudlow wrote, by ramping the U.S. energy production sector back up, it “would provide tall the spare capacity necessary to stabilize oil and natural gas prices,” and would work to “continue American dominance in LNG exports to Europe and around the world.

“Turning the spigots back on,” Kudlow said, “would really stick it to Vladimir Putin.”
If only we had a president who had a clue what he was doing.

 

[marsh]

Part 2 of 2

For a previous report about Russian oil and the U.S., we invite you to:
DIG DEEPER
The following article contains editorial content which is the opinion of the writer.
________________________

USA- Prior to November 2020, the United States had become energy independent, and actually was a net exporter of energy.

All of that went south after January 20, 2021, when Joe Biden was inaugurated to occupy the White House on weekdays between 9-5. National Review reports that in 2021, the United States had imported between 12 to 26 million barrels of crude oil and petroleum products from, of all places, Russia.

According to Brian Kilmeade on One Nation, U.S. monthly oil crude oil production peaked in 2019 at 12.3 million barrels per day; by November 2021, that number had dropped to 11.2 million.

Biden also canceled the Keystone XL pipeline, and reversed pro-drilling policies that had been put in place by President Trump.

According to the most recent data from November 2021, from the Energy Information Agency, the United States imported 17.8 million barrels.

Last spring, imports of Russian crude came at the highest level in nearly ten years; in August, Russia—home of Vladimir Putin who is poised to (allegedly) invade Ukraine—became the second-highest exporter of oil to the United States.

Does anyone honestly believe Biden is going to take any kind of decisive action against Putin, when he is holding us literally over a barrel

One might think given the turmoil between Russia and Ukraine, the United States might be looking at a way to get out from under Putin’s thumb, but given what was communicated at a White House press briefing last week, it probably isn’t of concern to the administration.

Deputy White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre was asked about how much pressure the United States is able to bring to bear on Putin given the fact we need their oil, especially given the fact that Biden has eviscerated our ability to produce our own oil without relying on OPEC or Russia.

Q: Wouldn’t it be difficult, though, for the U.S. to continue to import Russian oil after all of the rhetoric that we’ve put forward about Russia needing to not invade Ukraine and pressuring Germany to, you know, come out strongly on Nort Stream 2 and possible punishments for Russia if they were to take this step? Wouldn’t it be tough for the U.S. to continue, in that event, to import Russian gas?

A: Well again, it’s a hypothetical. I’m just telling you that we have been very, very clear, the president has been clear, our national security advisor has been clear—we all have been clear, either from this podium or direct communication with Russia, whether it’s with the president or its leadership, that if they were to invade—and in coordination, in lockstep with our European allies and partners, that’s how we’re moving forward here—that there would be…there would be severe, decisive economic consequences. I cannot speak more to—more to that.

This of course is equivocating of epic proportions. There has been a lot of pressure brought to bear on Germany to put a halt to the Nord Stream 2 pipeline (which incidentally Biden green-lighted last year).

However given the fact the U.S. hasn’t committed to stop purchasing Russian oil, why should Germany likewise stop buying either Russian oil or natural gas? The United States is operating from a standpoint of weakness, perpetrated by our cognitive mess of a president.

Face facts…for all the bluster coming out of Biden, anyone who looks at the man knows he’s a mess, a point which was driven home by National Review’s Kevin Williamson.

“The good news is, Biden isn’t drunk. The bad news is, Biden isn’t drunk. He just talks that way now.”

Williamson was referring to Biden’s Friday address, where he spoke of the looming crisis in Ukraine. Biden basically gave Putin a green light to go ahead and invade Ukraine, and while our country “is firmly committed to its principles,” we “would like to Putin to know in advance that we will not fight for them,” Williamson wrote.

The words were not what drew Williamson’s concern but more so the way they were delivered.
“Biden is slurring his words, getting lost in the middle of short sentences, and in general acting like a grandpa who cannot figure out how his new phone works.”

Williamson insists that Putin had to be further emboldened by Biden’s weak ass performance Friday. He notes that Mao had once dismissed the U.S. as a “paper tiger,” however that is all Biden is threatening to bring to the table—“strongly worded multilateral statements, sanctions regulations.”

As Jim Geraghty wrote in National Review:

“If Russia invades, it means Biden is a mess who’s thoroughly ineffective, who can’t achieve his policy goals even when he and his team give 110 percent effort. And the rest of the world, from Beijing to Pyongyang to Tehran, will know it.”

Ready for $6 a gallon gas nationwide America? Buckle up, it may be here sooner than you think.

_________________________________________________
For more on the situation with oil in the US we invite you to:
DIG DEEPER

WASHINGTON D.C.– The Biden administration recently announced that in an effort to lower gas prices, the United States, along with other nations, would be releasing tens of millions of barrels of oil from reserves.

Following the announcement, the prices rose above $82 a barrel on Tuesday, November 23rd, according to reports.

The price of Brent Sweet Crude, the global benchmark, rose by more than 3.3 percent following the announcement that the U.S. would be releasing 50 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserves, Breitbart reported.

Brent Sweet Crude was not the only one to rise, as the price of West Texas Intermediate also rose more than 2.5 percent to $78.47.

The White House announced on Twitter that other countries including China, India, South Korea, Japan, and Britain are also planning to release their reserves.



Brent Sweet Crude was not the only one to rise, as the price of West Texas Intermediate also rose more than 2.5 percent to $78.47.

The White House announced on Twitter that other countries including China, India, South Korea, Japan, and Britain are also planning to release their reserves.



The Biden administration is hoping that the release of the reserve oil will help drive down the price of gasoline, a consistent and evolving problem that has plagued the country since President Biden took office.

The White House and the Federal Reserve earlier this year said that inflation was transitory and would remain confined to just a few areas of the economy, Breitbart reported.

These predictions have clearly missed the mark, as the inflation is increasingly worsening by the day, rising at the fastest pace in decades.

While the Biden administration is hoping the release of the reserve will be a quick fix, some experts in the field disagree.

According to the Congressional Research Service, due to pipeline and marine terminal constraints, the United States reserves can only be released at a maximum pace of 4.4 million barrels per day.

It is reported that total global consumption runs at about 100 million barrels per day. Oil industry experts say the reserve release will likely not do very much to help lower the rising prices at the pumps.

Shortly after President Biden took office, he signed an executive order that halted oil and gas leasing on federal lands and waters. Law Enforcement Today recently reported that a federal judge issued a nationwide injunction halting Joe Biden’s executive order to stop all oil and gas operations on federal lands.

Here is that complete story.

The following contains editorial content which is the opinion of the writer.

—

Let’s call this one a win for the good guys…for now. On Monday, a federal judge issued a nationwide injunction halting Joe Biden’s executive order to stop all oil and gas operations on federal lands. Biden had issued the order at the beginning of his presidency, ostensibly to fight the so-called scourge of climate change, Breitbart News reported.

Thirteen states, led by Louisiana Attorney General Jeff Landry filed suit against the administration and praised the judge’s decision to issue the injunction, saying it was a good decision for America.

“This is a victory not only for the rule of law, but also for the thousands of workers who produce affordable energy for Americans,” Landry said.

“The President’s executive order abandons middle-class jobs, cripples our economy, and hits everyday Americans where it hurts the most—their pocketbooks.”

Landry also said that Biden’s order actually hurts the environment.

“What’s more it attacks Louisiana’s coast by reducing the revenue and royalties used for coastal restoration and hurricane protection,” Landry said.

A press release stated:

In last week’s oral arguments, lawyers from Attorney General Landry’s Office said that Biden officials cannot legally halt all lease sales because Congress, by statute, has commanded that such lease sales happen on a regular basis. They cited the Outer Continental Shelf Lands Act and the Mineral Leasing Act as explicitly prohibiting the Biden Ban.

“By executive fiat, Joe Biden and his administration have single-handedly driven the price of energy up—costing the American people where it hurts most, in their pocketbooks,” Landry said upon filing of the lawsuit.

He also noted that Biden’s order also attacked middle class jobs just when they are most needed by Americans, and took our energy security—where we were energy independent eleven months ago—and put it in the hands of foreign countries, many of whom “despise America’s greatness,” Landry said.

The attorney generals’ lawsuit stated in part:

The Outer Continental Shelf Lands Act and Mineral Leasing Act set out specific statutory duties requiring executive agencies to further the expeditious and safe development of the abundant energy. In compliance with those statutes, the Department of the Interior has for decades issued leases for the development of oil and natural gas on public lands and offshore waters.

“For decades, Congress has embraced responsible development of our natural resources as a means of achieving energy independence—a matter of national security,” Landry said.

“They have discarded vulnerable dependence on foreign oil, which is why the court should reject the Biden ban.”

Other states who took part in the lawsuit included Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Texas, Utah, and West Virginia. The suit was filed in the U.S. District Court for the Western District of Louisiana.

Biden and his cadre of leftist lunatics claim the fossil fuel industry must basically be destroyed in order to “save the planet from” so-called “climate change.”

Under former President Donald Trump, the U.S. was energy-independent and a net exporter of oil for the first time since 1957, and no longer relied on OPEC or other foreign energy sources. Joe Biden, the one-man pandemic, took care of that, however. Since that time, gas prices have increased by between 60-70 percent.

Shutting down oil and gas production on federal land wasn’t the only thing Biden did to attack the energy industry. One of his first actions was to shut down the Keystone XL Pipeline, which created a lot of jobs in numerous western states with public lands, and would have eventually transported petroleum products from Western Canada through the U.S.

For reference, the case is Louisiana v. Biden, 2:21-CV-00778

For more on Biden’s destruction of the petroleum industry, we invite you to read an earlier report we filed:

DIG DEEPER

WASHINGTON, D.C.- On Saturday, January 23rd, the senior vice president of Policy, Economics, and Regulatory Affairs at the American Petroleum Institute (API) made an appearance on SiriusXM’s Breitbart News Saturday with host Matt Boyle.

During his appearance, Vice President Frank Macchiarola said that if President Joe Biden puts a permanent ban on oil and gas development on federal waters and land, it could cost 1 million American jobs.



Boyle asked Macchiarola specifically about the significance of President Biden revoking the permit or the Keystone XL Pipeline and putting a 60-day pause on federal land leasing in his first few days in office. Macchiarola responded by saying:

“I think the first four days of the Biden Administration have give a clear picture of what the next four years could look like. President Biden comes into office with a real economic headwind and a difficult labor market, but at the same time he inherited an energy landscape that’s stronger because of America’s shale revolution.”

He added:

“We’ve produced lower household energy costs as a result of U.S. energy and less reliance on foreign energy sources. The president has a choice to make: He can maintain U.S. leadership and maintain and support our economic recovery with American energy or he can pursue policies that destroy jobs and at the same time increase energy imports.”

He reiterated:

“The first few days should concern all Americans because the administration is clearly taking actions that are going to harm the economy and cost Americans jobs.”



According to reports, shutting down the Keystone XL pipeline will cost 11,000 jobs directly and as many as 60,000 indirected jobs. Mike Sommers, president and CEO of trade group API, said that Biden’s announcement was:

“A slap in the face to the thousands of union workers who are already a part of this safe and sustainable project.”

He added:

“This misguided move will hamper America’s economic recovery, undermine North American energy security, and strain relations with one of America’s greatest allies.”



Macchiarola said that the federal ban presents and even more staggering number of job loss. He said:

“The full scale ban of development on federal lands you can bet the impact could be up to a million jobs in the United States.”

He added:

“Two of the major components of the inauguration address and of the priorities of the new administration, No.1 is rebuilding alliances and No.2 strengthening our economy. With this decision that heads in the opposite direction on both of those priorities.”



The Keystone decision also affects the relationship with Canada and the U.S. economy and it could cost the U.S. $2 billion in wages. Macchiarola then spoke to the potential for Biden’s policies to endanger U.S. energy independence. He said:

“This shale revolution has unlocked resources that we never thought we’d be able to get to and that’s meant more jobs in the United States, lower energy costs, and greater energy security.”

He added:

“For the first time in 2019 in 67 years, the U.S. became a net exporter of energy rather than net importer. That’s a huge deal and abandoning federal leasing heads in a different direction.”

In an example, he said that federal land and waters accounted for 22 percent of oil production and 12 percent of natural gas production in 2019. He added:

“That’s the different between energy independence and energy security and reliance on foreign sources.”

He went on to cite the irony of Biden’s nomination of Rep. Deb Haaland (D-NM) to serve as secretary of the Department of the Interior. He said that half of the energy produced in New Mexico comes from federal land and two thirds of the natural gas in the state comes from federal land.

In 2019, API produced a study that showed a federal land ban could cost up to 5 percent of all jobs in the state. Macchiarola said:

“These decisions are sweeping. They’re broad and they will really have negative impacts on our economy and our labor market at really the worst possible time.”

He added:

“If Biden’s priority is to bring back jobs in the United States and to grow our economy then they really need to rethink these policies, particularly the policy with respect to a leasing ban on federal lands for oil and gas development.”

 

[marsh]

Michael Yon @MichaelYon​ Jul 7, 2022 at 2:52am​

Bonfires of Netherlands​ 07 July 2022 Netherlands Mind dump, sans edit Yesterday, I went to the police station where they held the 16 year-old farm boy. The farm boy police shot at while he was driving the tractor. I saw a long video last night. Totally wrongful shooting. Police did miss the boy but hit the doorframe of his tractor. The boy represented no threat. And so yesterday farmers besieged the police station demanding release. A journalist there told me police told the farmers if they disperse they would release the prisoner. The farmers dispersed and hours later police released the boy they almost shot. We found numerous dispersed groups of farmers. Apparently there were groups lighting bonfires around Netherlands. We found two bonfires. Most of the farmers were teenagers or young twenties. It literally reminded me of our high school parties in Florida with 4x4s, only this time Dutch boys and girls came in tractors. They had beer but were peaceful — though did break out the fireworks. The young farmers were extremely happy that ‘foreign press’ came and saddened that Dutch press is portraying them as enemies and criminals. Dutch farmers plead for international help. I hardly have the heart to tell them this is war and there are no reinforcements. They are the first and last line of defense. This time, there will be no Market Garden. Likely there will be another Hongerwinter. Right here. In a breadbasket of the world. The young farmers kept trying to shove beers in my hand and I kept saying you got no ****ing time for beer, and a couple you look too young to be drinking. A They are plenty old enough to realize their land, farms, and futures are being stolen by global psychopaths. I was just told this morning — have not confirmed: “Distribution center bleiswijk last night 19 arrested, incl. 9 juveniles....Apparently what we witnessed was a natl action.... there were manure fires burning across highways all over Holland.” Same source, “On same msm news with straight face anchor announced 11% year-on-year food price inflation due to increased energy costs.” Young farmers used a tractor to stoke the fires. ​

 

[Jaybird]

 

[marsh]

Facebook aerial video of blockades

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=405006381681888

View: https://www.facebook.com/512804186/videos/405006381681888
1:01 min

 

[marsh]

The Lights Are About to Go out in America, Warn Grid Experts

For some reason, consumer demand for electricity is expected to skyrocket this summer. And this, we are told, will lead to

americafirstreport.com

The Lights Are About to Go out in America, Warn Grid Experts

BY ETHAN HUFF
July 7, 2022



For some reason, consumer demand for electricity is expected to skyrocket this summer. And this, we are told, will lead to blackouts all across the country.

Utility companies are already bracing for impact as they all seem to just know that energy usage will reach an all-time high in the coming months, leaving millions without power in the dead of the summer heat.

The powers that be say that it is warmer than usual in some parts of the country, which they are already blaming for future blackouts. (Related: Rolling blackouts are expected to sweep the entire country this year.)

“Federal agencies responsible for power reliability, like the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), have warned that grids in the western half of the country could face reliability issues this summer as consumers crank up air conditioners to escape the heat,” claims a report from Refinitiv data.

As energy equipment breaks down over the summer, power companies say they probably will not have the spare parts or other resources necessary to fix it fast enough to keep the power on – supposedly because of the heat.

The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), which mismanaged the infamous Texas blackouts of early 2021, says it is already asking customers to cut back on their energy use and turn up their air conditioning units after six power plants shut down back in May during an alleged heatwave.

How do they know for sure that nationwide blackouts are coming?
Another event in Ohio that was blamed on a “storm” left some 200,000 homes and businesses without power. The grid operator there said it had to intentionally shut down power in some areas to prevent remaining lines from becoming overloaded.

There sure are a lot of this mysterious incidents happening at once, almost as if someone is testing the grid to see how easy it is to knock out at a later date, which they already appear to be planning for in advance.

They already introduced us to the “Great Reset” followed by “Reset the Table.” Is this the part where they reset the energy supply and force everyone into darkness as part of some bizarre initiation into the New World Order?

Or, it could just be that America’s energy system is now so overloaded and mismanaged, coupled with a forced transition into “green” energy, that the systems currently in existence are simply unable to handle the load whenever it gets a little bit hot or rains.

According to Ralph Izzo, head of the New Jersey-based Public Service Enterprise Group (PSEG), energy utilities are having to be frugal with their replacement parts inventories in order to avoid running out in the event of a weather emergency – or even just a few consecutive days of heavy heat.

“You don’t want to deplete your inventory because you don’t know when that storm is coming, but you know it’s coming … If we have successive days of 100-degree-heat, those pole top transformers, they start popping like Rice Krispies, and we would not have the supply stack to replace them,” he is quoted as saying.

Nick Akins, head of the Ohio-based grid operator AEP, added that many utility operators are changing their maintenance habits as well.

“We’re doing a lot more splicing, putting cables together, instead of laying new cable because we’re trying to maintain our new cable for inventory when we need it,” Akins says.

In the comment section at RT, one person was quick to point out that perhaps the United States should stop sending billions of dollars to Ukraine and instead “fix the country.”

“But no profit is as good as war,” this person added.

The latest news about the energy situation in America can be found at PowerGrid.news.

 

[marsh]

Are You Willing To Suffer Through a Recession for the Good of 'The Liberal World Order'? - LewRockwell

How much are you willing to sacrifice for “the future of the liberal world order”? As you will see below, the Biden administration is trying to convince us that supporting the “liberal world order” is far more important than any short-term economic pain that we are experiencing right now. So...

www.lewrockwell.com

Are You Willing To Suffer Through A Recession For The Good Of 'The Liberal World Order'?

By Michael Snyder
Activist Post
July 7, 2022

How much are you willing to sacrifice for “the future of the liberal world order”? As you will see below, the Biden administration is trying to convince us that supporting the “liberal world order” is far more important than any short-term economic pain that we are experiencing right now. So are you willing to pay ridiculously high gas prices for the foreseeable future and suffer through a very serious economic downturn in order to put pressure on Vladimir Putin and Russia? Some Americans would be willing to do that, but most would not.

On Friday, we learned that the U.S. economy is heading in the wrong direction a lot quicker than most of the “experts” had anticipated. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model is currently projecting that economic growth for the second quarter of 2022 will be negative 2.1 percent…

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2022 is -2.1 percent on July 1, down from -1.0 percent on June 30. After this morning’s Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management and the construction report from the US Census Bureau, the nowcasts of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 1.7 percent and -13.2 percent, respectively, to 0.8 percent and -15.2 percent, respectively.

U.S. GDP growth was negative during the first quarter, and if U.S. GDP growth is negative again in the second quarter that will mean that we are already in a recession right now.

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model should be taken very seriously, because it has a very strong track record of accuracy…

“GDPNow has a strong track record, and the closer we get to July 28th’s release [of the initial Q2 GDP estimate] the more accurate it becomes,” wrote Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research.

If it is confirmed later this month that we are already in a recession, it won’t exactly be a surprise, but the good news is that so far this new economic downturn is not that severe.

Unfortunately, we continue to see more signs that things will soon get much worse.

The pace of layoffs is really starting to accelerate and this is especially true in the tech industry.
At this point, even Facebook is looking to thin the ranks…

In addition to the hiring freeze, Zuckerberg also noted the company was leaving some vacant positions at the company unfilled and “turning up the heat” on performance management to weed out staffers who are unable to meet certain KPIs.

“Realistically, there are probably a bunch of people at the company who shouldn’t be here,” Zuckerberg said, adding, “Part of my hope by raising expectations and having more aggressive goals, and just kind of turning up the heat a little bit, is that I think some of you might decide that this place isn’t for you, and that self-selection is OK with me.”

Meanwhile, we are seeing Americans cut back on their spending at a frightening pace.
In fact, one recent survey discovered that a whopping 83 percent of all Americans have “slashed personal spending due to soaring prices”…

Provident Bank, based in New Jersey, found that 83% of respondents slashed personal spending due to soaring prices of food and gasoline, with 23% indicating they had to make “drastic changes” to their spending for financial survival.

According to the survey results of 600 adults, 10.5% of respondents eliminated all non-essential purchases, and nearly 72% said they made at least some changes to personal travel habits.

And Wall Street seems to have finally gotten the message that very hard times are ahead.
The first half of 2022 was the worst first half of a year for the S&P 500 since 1970, and the index has now plunged into bear market territory…

This all came a day after the S&P 500 posted a more than 16% quarterly loss – its biggest one-quarter fall since March 2020. For the first half, the broader market index dropped 20.6% for its largest first-half decline since 1970. It also tumbled into bear market territory, down more than 21% from a record high set early January.

The Biden administration is openly admitting that more economic suffering is on the way, but we are being told that it is necessary.

On Wednesday, CNN interviewed a key economic adviser to Joe Biden named Brian Deese, and what Deese said during that interview is making headlines all over the globe…

CNN anchor Victor Blackwell interviewed Deese on Thursday and cited that Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines said on Wednesday the war between Russia and Ukraine could be a “grinding struggle” for years.

Blackwell said, “I think everybody understands why this is happening, but is it sustainable? What do you say to those families who say, listen, we can’t afford to pay $4.85 a gallon for months, if not years? This is not sustainable.”

Deese – who was formerly the global head of sustainable investing at BlackRock – replied, “What we heard from the president today was about the stakes. This is about the future of the liberal world order, and we have to stand firm.”

No thank you.

I don’t want anything to do with a “liberal world order”, and I am sure that most of you don’t either.

 

[marsh]

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R2w-kNI29k0
2:26 min

Archie Bunker on Democrats

Aug 13, 2012


Steven Cain

Archie Bunker on Democrats. He really nails it, spot on with the truth. A prophetic message from 35 years ago, that really resonates, with the state of Washingtion DC, today.

 

[marsh]

Millions Of Barrels From US Emergency Oil Reserve Sent Abroad, Including To China | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

Millions Of Barrels From US Emergency Oil Reserve Sent Abroad, Including To China

THURSDAY, JUL 07, 2022 - 07:37 AM
With a growing number of people realizing that the Biden administration has drained more oil from the US strategic petroleum reserve, which is meant to be used during real emergencies not fake, made up ones such as Democrats facing a catastrophic failure at the midterm elections...



... more people are starting to ask the next big question: where is this furious liquidation of US black gold going?

Courtesy of Reuters we know: more than 5 million barrels of oil that were part of the historic U.S. SPR release were exported to Europe and Asia last month, including top US geopolitical nemesis in the global arena, China, even as U.S. gasoline and diesel prices hit record highs.

The export of crude and fuel is blunting the impact of the moves by U.S. President Joe Biden to lower record pump prices. In a widely mocked call, Biden on Saturday renewed a call for gasoline suppliers to cut their prices, drawing rightful criticism from Amazon founder Jeff Bezos, because going after mom and pop gas stores merely demonstrates just how clueless the handlers of the senile presidential puppet truly are.

About 1 million barrels per day have been drained from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve through October, an unprecedented pace. The drain means SPR inventories fell to the lowest since 1986. US crude futures are above $100 per barrel and gasoline and diesel prices above $5 a gallon in one-fifth of the nation. US officials have said oil prices could be higher if the SPR had not been tapped, and for once they are right. Still, the question looms of what happens to oil prices when the US can no longer sell the SPR amid concerns of a real emergency: we know the answer and the Biden admin won't like it.

"The SPR remains a critical energy security tool to address global crude oil supply disruptions," a Department of Energy spokesperson said, adding that the emergency releases helped ensure stable supply of crude oil.

Citing customs data, Reuters traced that the fourth-largest U.S. oil refiner, Phillips 66 shipped about 470,000 barrels of sour crude from the Big Hill SPR storage site in Texas to Trieste, Italy.

Trieste is home to a pipeline that sends oil to refineries in central Europe. Meanwhile, Atlantic Trading & Marketing (ATMI), an arm of French oil major TotalEnergies, exported 2 cargoes of 560,000 barrels each. Cargoes of SPR crude were also headed to the Netherlands and to a Reliance refinery in India, an industry source said.

What is most notable is that a third cargo headed to US arch-enemy, China, which is now directly benefiting at the expense of US consumers as a result of Biden's escalating panic to undo the consequences of his catastrophic green policies by selling the most valuable US assets directly to Beijing!

But what is even more scary is the following exchange, in which the White House simply had no response when asked if the US is selling its emergency reserve oil to China.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1544851699038179329

View: https://twitter.com/i/status/1544851699038179329
.41 min

Pointing out the obvious, Matt Smith, lead oil analyst at Kpler. said that "crude and fuel prices would likely be higher if (the SPR releases) hadn't happened, but at the same time, it isn't really having the effect that was assumed."

And while the midterms will come and go, and Democrats will suffer a historic loss, the U.S. energy picture is getting more dire by the minute thanks to the sheer incompetence and/or corruption of the executive branch: crude inventories are the lowest since 2004 as refineries run near peak levels. Refineries in the U.S. Gulf coast were at 97.9% utilization, the most in three and a half years. This means even the smallest accident can and will sell oil prices to the moon.

 

[marsh]

Judge Sides With Parent, Strikes Down Los Angeles School Vaccine Mandate

www.theepochtimes.com

Judge Sides With Parent, Strikes Down Los Angeles School Vaccine Mandate

By Bill Pan
July 6, 2022 Updated: July 6, 2022

A plan to mandate COVID-19 vaccine shots for hundreds of thousands of students in the Los Angeles Unified School District (LAUSD) will remain on pause after a Los Angeles County judge ruled on July 5 that the district lacks the authority to do so.

In his ruling, Judge Mitchell Beckloff of the Superior Court of Los Angeles County sided with a parent, whose 12-year-old son attends a public magnet school in North Hollywood. The parent filed the complaint in October 2021, about a month after the LAUSD announced its vaccination mandate.

Under the district’s mandate, all eligible students aged 12 and above must show proof of COVID-19 vaccination, or get approved for exemptions by Jan. 10 in order to attend school in person. Those who don’t comply would be transferred into the district’s remote learning program, City of Angels, which offers a mixture of live instruction and self-study.

The suing parent, identified as G.F., argued that it is unfair and unlawful for the child, identified as D.F., to have to lose his hard-earned place at a competitive school just because he and his parent have chosen to not get vaccinated on the basis of personal beliefs.

According to G.F., his son had acquired natural immunity after recovering from COVID-19. He also said he worried that vaccinating the child would put the child’s health in jeopardy.

“Either I get him a vaccine that I fear could harm him, or I send him to a virtual school that I know from experience and LAUSD’s own data would prove academically vastly inferior,” the father said earlier this year in a sworn declaration, reported City News Service. “The idea of dumping him into an online school, free of a rigorous academic program and torn away from his like-minded classmates, breaks my heart.”

Beckloff, who wrote in March in a tentative opinion that he might dismiss the case, agreed with the father in his final ruling, acknowledging that if D.F. refuses to comply with the mandate, he will be forced to accept a very different education.

“The [mandate] is not merely about how education is delivered or who may be physically present on campus as the court previously viewed it. Instead, the [mandate] dictates which school the student may attend, and the curriculum he may continue to receive,” the judge wrote, reported the Los Angeles Times.

The judge also noted that the LAUSD mandate is in conflict with California’s public health law, which allows personal beliefs-based vaccination exemptions.

“Judge Beckloff’s ruling confirms that individual school districts do not have the authority to impose local vaccination requirements in excess of statewide requirements,” Arie Spangler, an attorney for G.F., said in a statement. “We are very pleased with the ruling, as it ensures that no child will be forced out of the classroom due to their COVID-19 vaccination status.”

The decision doesn’t have an immediate impact on LAUSD, since the mandate has already been placed on hold after California Gov. Gavin Newsom announced in April that the state would wait for the federal government to give full approval to the COVID-19 vaccine for young children. The Newsom administration and school district have both said they won’t pursue the pediatric vaccine mandate until at least the summer of 2023.


Bill P

 

[Cacheman]

No longer a conspiracy theory: Dutch farmers must make way for asylum seekers - Free West Media | Free West Media

Flevo member of parliament Niek Beenen (JA21) has shared a document on Twitter from the province of Flevoland in the Netherlands about the purchase of

freewestmedia.com

No longer a conspiracy theory: Dutch farmers must make way for asylum seekers | Free West Media
fwmstaff

4-5 minutes


Dutch farmers heading to Leeuwarden to show support for Jouke, the 16 year old who was shot at by the police, who is still in custody. Photo supplied

Flevo member of parliament Niek Beenen (JA21) has shared a document on Twitter from the province of Flevoland in the Netherlands about the purchase of "nitrogen space" in the Noordoostpolder.


“The province of Flevoland has bought nitrogen space in the Noordoostpolder. With the nitrogen space that has been freed up, the province can help a number of PAS claimants in the Noordoostpolder. This opportunity has arisen because the government has bought an agricultural business in the Noordoostpolder. The government wants to set up a registration centre for asylum seekers at the location of the farm,” reads the document.

“In this country, farming families who produce food are being exchanged for asylum seekers,” tweeted Beenen.
“Of course it is a conspiracy theory that all farmers in the Netherlands are being bought out because a lot of asylum seekers are coming to the Netherlands. Yet it does not help to send such letters as Flevoland province is in the middle of the nitrogen crisis,” responded entrepreneur Rutger van den Noort.

“The constant denial that immigration, housing, nature policy, agriculture and nitrogen/climate have anything to do with each other is laughable,” he added.

PVV-leader Geert Wilders also responded to the document. “Here’s the proof. It just says it all. The farmer has to go because they want to build a registration centre for asylum seekers on his land. They are completely destroying the Netherlands. Our farmers out, the fortune seekers in. No wonder people are furious,” Wilders noted.

FVD group chairman Brent Hadderingh commented: “Farmers out, asylum seekers in. Really every caricature has been surpassed. Unashamedly.”

“According to people […] I spread ‘conspiracy theories’ when I say that farmers have to make way for migrants. It clearly says here: ‘The government wants to set up a registration centre for asylum seekers at the location of the agricultural business’. What’s a ‘conspiracy theory’?” asked legal philosopher Raisa Blommestijn.

The application centre will be in Bant, where about 1500 people live who do not welcome asylum seekers.

Meanwhile, countless photos and videos of the farmers’ strike against land expropriation in the Netherlands have circulated on the Internet, even though the mainstream media tried to ignore the protest. The situation escalated at the beginning of this week. The farmers have also been joined by fishermen and seafarers, blocking ports and thereby endangering the already fragile supply chains. The government, for its part, has called in armored personnel carriers.

The authorities have tried to put down the protest with tear gas and batons. The farmers responded with blockades, hay bales and manure. There appears to be no end in sight to their resolve.

Since Monday, supermarkets and ports have increasingly been the focus of the protests. German farmers have taken part in the rallies at the border crossings. Hundreds of farmers blocked the access roads to large supermarket warehouses with hay bales on Monday. More than 20 distribution centers of the large supermarket chains were affected.

 

[marsh]

The Deep State Is Sadistic | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

The Deep State Is Sadistic

THURSDAY, JUL 07, 2022 - 01:20 PM
Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via DailyReckoning.com,

Remember the old days of the Clinton administration?
It came to power riding a center-left push against the messes of the Bush administration. Clinton was careful to distance himself from the crazies with a series of high-profile rebuffs of the worst among them.

The hope was to advertise as a moderate but govern slightly to the left.

But then the polls and the markets started to speak, and loudly. The Clinton White House was highly sensitive to them. The president himself was said to have cursed the bond market more than once, demanding to know who precisely was running this country, himself or bond traders?

Nonetheless, the administration responded to all inputs. The federal budget did not expand dramatically. Indeed the budget was temporarily balanced. And then welfare itself was reformed to cut it out with the generous benefits for sheer laziness that had characterized the welfare state since the 1960s.

An economic boom commenced and these days people look back rather fondly on the whole experience, choosing only to remember the president’s dalliance with an intern.

Times Change
The single strangest feature of the existing regime is how utterly impervious it is to input from either markets or polls. The polls are showing the Biden regime at an 18.1% split between disapproving and approving.

These are composite numbers. Some polls show a situation much worse. I take it as axiomatic that one-third of the public will believe anything, no matter how stupid. We are approaching that level in terms of job approval.

Meanwhile, the markets are in solid bear territory. A new survey from an insurance company shows that 93% of Americans have taken up second and third jobs just to stay ahead of the inflationary trap. JPMorgan has a new poll of medium-sized business owners that shows an unprecedented level of pessimism about the future.

What is going on right now is revealed in the following chart that shows household income declining even as debt service as a percent of income is on the rise. That is a crucial moment in modern economic history. It reveals the current impoverishment taking place.



It also reveals an amazing trick. Government gave everyone money and then took it away. Many people have just dropped out of the workforce. We are still not up to the old levels of labor participation. Meanwhile, people are maxing out their credit cards, even as the more well-to-do are taking on new mortgages in hopes of paying them back in cheaper dollars.

What’s more, we are looking at 2½ more years of this hell. There seems to be no chance of turning the corner, not so long as Biden denies that inflation has anything to do with money printing, even as the administration continues to inveigh against fossil fuels while suggesting that instead, we live off the wind and the sun.

And even given all of this, we are seeing no change from the top. They are blind to it all. The 30-something Ivies who work there are so convinced of their insane ideology that they are pressing it no matter what. They are behaving like Bolsheviks in 1920, thrilled for their revolution, clinging to power and utterly disregarding the sufferings of the people at all levels of society.

It’s a sadistic state, one that seems to thrive in direct proportion to the pain it inflicts on the American people.

Why, Why, Why?
I was just on a radio show in which the host made a speculation. He said that the Biden administration is literally seeking to destroy the American middle class, and this is for two reasons.

• First, they want to punish people who voted for Trump and see them suffer forever for having done so.
• Second, they want to gut the middle class and promote dependency and demoralization to stop it ever from happening again.

I usually resist the kind of interpretation that relies on pure malice versus sheer stupidity. But in this case, I simply cannot shake off and dismiss this opinion. Evil does exist. It explains a lot. It is not necessary to believe that government has our best interests at heart but just gets confused at how to promote them.

He might actually be correct, I don’t know.

I’ve never been a Trump superfan but I still struggle to understand what’s called Trump Derangement Syndrome. It’s a real thing and is truly boundless.

The Fix
However, the other day I ran across an interesting fact of history that could account for the unmitigated hate. Three months before Trump left office, he passed Executive Order 13957. The purpose was to create a new category of federal employment called Schedule F.

Schedule F employees could be fired by the president. They would no longer have civil service protection due to their positions as policymakers and influencers.

The executive order demanded a thorough review of all federal employees to see who would qualify. Only one agency responded in time before the election was called for Biden and concluded that it would pertain to 88% of its employees. In other words, this action would have gutted the power of the administrative state.

It would have been the biggest change to hit Washington in 100 years. Absolutely astonishing. What was Biden’s first action in office?

You guessed it. He issued a new executive order reversing this one. He saved the deep state. None of this made the news, but you can be darn sure that it was a HUGE deal in the belly of the beast. Imagine the CDC, IRS, NSA, CIA, FDA, DOJ and so on all subject to normal standards of hiring and firing.

That would have gone a very long way to ending the tyranny in America. It absolutely had to be stopped. The point is that Trump with this order raised the stakes enormously. He figured out the problem and the solution. They must never allow it to happen again.

This is why they are behaving this way, like cornered rats. They will do anything to prevent something like this.

I’ve never been one for the theory that the election was stolen, simply because I don’t have enough information to say either way. But I will say this. If there ever were an election to steal, this would have been it. The entire deep state stood on the precipice of dismemberment.



So yeah, plenty of people would have been willing to take the risk.

We live in exceedingly dangerous times, with multiple beasts on the loose looking for wealth and liberties to devour. They are proving themselves impossible to train or deter, no matter how bad it gets out there.

They really are sadistic.

 

[marsh]

Welcome To The Slow Motion Depression | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

Welcome To The Slow Motion Depression

THURSDAY, JUL 07, 2022 - 10:46 AM
Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via DailyReckoning.com,

Think for a moment of other failed experiments in human history.



One that comes to mind is the Bolshevik Revolution. Its leader, Vladimir Lenin, never really expected to take power, much less be put in charge of implementing the system he had spent a career promoting.

He was asked to speak to what communism would mean. He fished around and came up with the idea of electrification of Russia.

It didn’t work. In fact nothing worked. By 1920, electricity was even failing in Russia itself, and food shortages were everywhere. The experiment had already flopped and the workers and peasants were furious.

The answer was the “New Economic Policy” which liberalized the economy and bought the party time. The point is that the communist experiment had failed already, only two years in.

The issue of failing plans from elites has vexed rulers from time immemorial. We live in such times today, arguably on a larger global basis than ever. They said they would suppress a virus but everyone got it anyway.

They said they would print and spend their way out of recession but now we have inflation plus recession. They said they would minimize the social and economic carnage but it is everywhere.

Notice that no one has taken responsibility. No one has admitted error. Or more precisely, what people like Bill Gates say now is that their theory was fine and their plans were brilliant, but there were periodic missteps in judgment owing to a lack of information, but keep trusting them because they will get better at this.

Just wait and see.

The FDA
Another tactic they are using is to claim that only now can we treat the Coronavirus like a normal pathogen because the new mutations, though more widespread, are also less severe. Fine. Except that with the mutations, the threshold for herd immunity is also rising.

We might have been done with this nonsense two years ago had we lived life normally. The FDA’s latest blather is designed to cover that up.

Also, you will notice that last weekend, the FDA put major new warnings on the J&J vaccine, as if it has uniquely dangerous adverse effects. They did this at the same time massive documents from Pfizer are being dumped all over the Internet, and they all show sketchy trial methods and very serious side effects.

The FDA’s announcement looks highly suspicious: like an attempt to seem scrupulous while letting the biggest offenders off the hook.

At least we aren’t going the way of China. Xi Jinping announced to the party congress over the weekend that he will tolerate no dissent against the zero Covid ideal. The pathogen will be crushed everywhere it appears.

China now (if you can believe the official data) has one of the lowest rates of infection of anywhere in the world. That means that another billion or so people still will get it, and that means rolling lockdowns for the duration.

If this really happens, the great promise of this great country will be torn down by the arrogance and crankishness of one single dictator. That’s a tremendous tragedy, one that will have a profoundly negative impact on the global economy for many years to come.

Roiling Crisis
It’s almost difficult to keep up with the ongoing disasters taking place these days. Let’s talk about the impending shortage in electricity, the stuff we are all supposed to be using as a replacement for fossil fuels in the brave new world being created for us by our lords and masters.

Reports the Wall Street Journal, in a piece that went largely unnoticed:

California’s grid operator said Friday that it anticipates a shortfall in supplies this summer, especially if extreme heat, wildfires or delays in bringing new power sources online exacerbate the constraints. The Midcontinent Independent System Operator, or MISO, which oversees a large regional grid spanning much of the Midwest, said late last month that capacity shortages may force it to take emergency measures to meet summer demand and flagged the risk of outages. In Texas, where a number of power plants lately went offline for maintenance, the grid operator warned of tight conditions during a heat wave expected to last into the next week.

The risk of electricity shortages is rising throughout the U.S. as traditional power plants are being retired more quickly than they can be replaced by renewable energy and battery storage. Power grids are feeling the strain as the U.S. makes a historic transition from conventional power plants fueled by coal and natural gas to cleaner forms of energy such as wind and solar power, and aging nuclear plants are slated for retirement in many parts of the country.

In summary, another central plan born of arrogance and presence seems to be on the verge of complete failure, even to the point of blackouts, like a third world has experienced for many years. Green energy is becoming no energy. Zero emissions is becoming zero power.

Further:

Speeding the build-out of renewable energy and batteries has become an especially difficult proposition amid supply-chain challenges and inflation. Most recently, a probe by the Commerce Department into whether Chinese solar manufacturers are circumventing trade tariffs on solar panels has halted imports of key components needed to build new solar farms and effectively brought the U.S. solar industry to a standstill.

So here we see the combination of consequences of many different cockamamie ideas: tariffs, green energy policy, fiscal irresponsibility, plus money printing. Amazing. We have high inflation, the breakdown of global trade, plus a failed attempt to dial back fossil fuels and rely on wind and water. It’s absurd, and we could pay the price sooner rather than later.

Glorious Food
If that weren’t bad enough, there are people raising alarms about an impending food shortage to complement the shortage of so much else. Plus we are less than three months away from the declaration of recession.

And while inflation has calmed down a bit for now, there is every reason to believe that it will kick back up again by late summer. This will give us a combination of inflation, recession, blackouts, and food shortages.

That’s a politically toxic mix, to say the least. And let’s add one more piece to the puzzle: weakened and falling financials. The terrible year seems ever less an aberration and more and more the beginnings of an enduring bear market in nearly everywhere.

This has even affected the crypto market, as large institutional investors have gotten squeamish about a technology they never understood but only embraced in hopes of return.

Looking back, there is nothing terribly surprising about any of this. It’s a consequence of safety culture and a belief that powerful, rich, and intelligent people can manage the world better than the rest of us. We’ve been here many times in history, and it has always foreshadowed a long period of suffering.

Lenin failed just as Gates, Powell, Fauci, and Psaki have failed. Few things are more dangerous to the future of humanity than a failed and humiliated ruling class that still possesses power. They cannot and will not admit error, so their only plan is to double and triple down on failure.

The term “scorched-earth” is usually used metaphorically. Maybe this time it will become real.

 

[raven]

Depressions are not like and earthquake where, with a loud crack, the walls come tumbling down.
Depressions are like a tsunami, the water just keeps coming and coming and rising and rising.

 

[marsh]

Gaffney And Walsh Analyze The Negative Effects For Americans From Biden Selling Our Oil To the CCP 18:03 min

Gaffney And Walsh Analyze The Negative Effects For Americans From Biden Selling Our Oil To the CCP
Bannons War Room Published July 7, 2022

(Walsh: This is different from export. The purpose of our strategic reserve is for our nation defense should we need oil for a conflict or if we need for an emergency shortfall in domestic supply. Biden gave it away without a vote of Congress. It will have to be replaced by purchasing more expensive oil. According to Reuters, 15% of it went to China.

Gaffney, selling our oil reserves to our mortal enemy, the CCP, is beyond belief. It is treason. It is enabling our enemy to be more dangerous, beggering the American people in the process. If this doesn't constitute grounds for impeachment, I don't know what will.

 

[marsh]

Dr. Malone On The Administrative State That Has Propped Up The ‘Evil’ Health Apparatus 11:27 min

Dr. Malone On The Administrative State That Has Propped Up The ‘Evil’ Health Apparatus
Bannons War Room Published July 7, 2022

(No summary given. See recent substack postings from Dr. Malone's blog such as post #4323 above.)

 

[marsh]

Dave Walsh On The 'Absolutely Devasting' Effects On Western Economies From Soaring Oil Prices 19:50 min

Dave Walsh On The 'Absolutely Devasting' Effects On Western Economies From Soaring Oil Prices
Bannons War Room Published July 6, 2022

(No summary given. Have not yet watched.)

 

[marsh]

Steve Cortes: ‘60% Of Small Businesses’ Say Inflation Is Worse Than The Covid Lockdowns 6:47 min

Steve Cortes: ‘60% Of Small Businesses’ Say Inflation Is Worse Than The Covid Lockdowns
Bannons War Room Published July 7, 2022

(No summary given. Have not watched.

 

[marsh]

Tucker Carlson Calls For Biden's Impeachment For Selling Oil From Strategic Petroleum Reserve 8:38 min

Tucker Carlson Calls For Biden's Impeachment For Selling Oil From Strategic Petroleum Reserve
Red Voice Media Published July 7, 2022

Fox News host Tucker Carlson says that Joe Biden should be impeached over reports that he's selling off oil from America's Strategic Petroleum Reserve to foreign countries while the reserves were tapped into to help American's dealing with rising gas prices.

 

[marsh]

HONK HONK! Dutch Farmers Take Over the Streets of Nijmegen

The sound of sovereignty. Video via https://t.me/BMediaWWD Follow the Fox Telegram: https://t.me/VigilantFox Gettr: https://gettr.com/user/VigilantFox Truth: https://truthsocial.com/@VigilantFox Minds

rumble.com

.42 min

HONK HONK! Dutch Farmers Take Over the Streets of Nijmegen
The Vigilant Fox Published July 7, 2022
The sound of sovereignty.

^^^^

Farmers Unite: Polish, Italian and German Agriculturists Join the Dutch in Protest .42 min

Farmers Unite: Polish, Italian and German Agriculturists Join the Dutch in Protest
Red Voice Media Published July 7, 2022

 

[marsh]

https://www.agweb.com/news/crops/crop-production/anxiety-levels-increase-farmers-eye-acreage-shifts?mkt_tok=ODQzLVlHQi03OTMAAAGFeUhh3PekOtER81K90O1gxTBQ5I-dIxwq4mKEzMOhx2Y1Cd-W6-ioWaEuvSLsoedYEbd8Et1E0Ha-QWE0_tcBXaiXv4MoVgr9RCZ99sZSuekJ1tdz5vk

As Anxiety Levels Increase, Farmers Eye Acreage Shifts

Another red flag is being raised for the farm economy. In June, the Ag Economy Barometer, by Purdue University and the CME Group, fell to a reading of 97.(Data: Purdue/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer, October 2015-June 2022)

By SARA SCHAFER July 7, 2022

Another red flag is being raised for the farm economy. In June, the Ag Economy Barometer, by Purdue University and the CME Group, fell to a reading of 97. That is two points below its May reading.

Watch this AgDay clip:

Video on website 1:07 min

This month 51% of survey respondents said they expect their farms to be worse off financially a year from now, the most negative response received to this question since data collection began in 2015.

“People are concerned about where the future is headed,” says Jim Mintert, director, Center for Commercial Agriculture, Purdue University. “We've got inflation concerns, rapid rises in input costs and uncertainty about output prices. People are worried about a cost price squeeze. That's the anxiety level we're picking up in the sentiment survey.”

Listen to Mintert discuss the latest survey results on AgriTalk:

Link to audio report on website 11 min

One out of five crop producers in the June survey said they intend to change their crop mix in 2023 with the largest percentage of respondents planning a move towards more soybean production.

Among the farmers who planted winter wheat in fall 2021, one out of four said they plan to increase their winter wheat acreage this fall. Among crop producers who did not plant winter wheat last fall, 14% said they intend to plant some winter wheat this fall.

“People are worried about these production costs, and they're looking for ways to cut back on the dollars that are flowing out,” Mintert says. “When you think about the dollars invested to raise a crop, it takes fewer dollars to put a soybean crop in generally than a corn crop.”

The wheat increases, he says, are due to the global wheat supply uncertainty, because of the loss in production for Ukraine and Russia.

Although both farmland value indices remain at strong levels, producers were noticeably less confident farmland values will continue to rise than they were last fall. However, in our first attempt to learn about corn/soybean farmers’ expectations for 2023 cash rental rates, over half of producers said they expect to see rental rates rise.

Ag Economy Barometer, Short-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index, November 2015-June
2022

Ag Economy Barometer, Long-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index, May 2017-June 2022

Farmers expect cash rental rates to go up, Mintert says. The question is: How much?

Of the corn and soybean producers surveyed, eight out of 10 said they expect cash rental rates to rise 5% or more. Four out of 10 are predicting rates to rise by 10% or more in 2023.

“So, that's going to put some more pressure on that cost by squeeze,” Mintert says.

Ag Economy Barometer, Farm Capital Investment Index, October 2015-June 2022

The Farm Capital Investment Index remained at its record low of 35 for the second month in a row. Producers continue to view this as not being a good time to make large investments in their farm operation. One reason producers say it’s not a good time to make large investments is the problems they’ve experienced in the supply chain.

The Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer sentiment index is calculated each month from 400 U.S. agricultural producers’ responses to a telephone survey. This month’s survey was conducted from June 13-17, 2022.

 

[marsh]

Rickards: Welcome To 1984 | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

Rickards: Welcome To 1984

THURSDAY, JUL 07, 2022 - 08:45 AM
Authored by James Rickards via DailyReckoning.com, Gold

I’ve been addressing the war on cash lately, and for good reason. While everyone’s attention is focused on the war in Ukraine, inflation and the Supreme Court, government plans to eliminate cash are accelerating.

For example, central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) are coming even faster than many anticipated. The digital yuan is already here; it was introduced in China last February during the Winter Olympics.

Visitors to the Olympics were required to pay for meals, hotels, transportation, etc., using QR codes on their mobile phones that linked to digital yuan accounts. Nine other countries have already launched CBDCs. Europe is not far behind and is testing the digital euro under the auspices of the European Central Bank.

The U.S. was lagging, but is catching up fast.

The Federal Reserve was studying a possible Fed CBDC at a research facility at MIT. Now the idea has moved from the research stage to preliminary development.

Fed Chair Jay Powell said, “A U.S. CBDC could… potentially help maintain the dollar’s international standing.”

But this has little to do with technology or monetary policy and everything to do with herding you into digital cattle chutes where you can be slaughtered with account freezes, seizures, etc.



NOT Crypto
First off, CBDCs are not cryptocurrencies. The CBDCs are digital in form, are recorded on a ledger (maintained by a central bank or finance ministry and the message traffic is encrypted. Still, the resemblance to cryptos ends there.

The CBDC ledgers do not use blockchain, and CBDCs definitely do not embrace the decentralized issuance model hailed by the crypto crowd. CBDCs will be highly centralized and tightly controlled by central banks.

The CBDC ledger can be maintained in encrypted form by the central bank itself without the need for bank accounts or money market funds. Payments can be done with an iPhone or other device, with no need for credit cards or costly wire transfers.

Who needs bank accounts, checks, account statements, deposit slips and the other clunky features of a banking relationship when you can go completely digital with the Fed?

CBDCs are a technological advance, but they do not replace existing reserve currencies.

Not a New Currency
It’s important to understand that a CBDC is not a new currency. It’s just a new payment channel. A digital dollar is still a dollar. A digital euro is still a euro. It’s just that the currency never exists in physical form. It is always digital, and ownership is recorded on a ledger maintained by the central bank.

You will have an account showing how many digital dollars you own. They are transferred by an app on a smartphone or a desktop computer.

Of course, in many ways, dollar transactions are already digital. Most people receive money by wire transfer, go shopping with credit cards and pay bills online. All of those transactions are digital and encrypted. The difference with CBDCs is that you don’t need banks or credit card companies or even PayPal.

Again, everything can be done through the Fed with a single account for payment and receipt. CBDCs could disintermediate the entire banking and credit card sectors to a great extent.

Welcome to 1984
The other big difference is that it will give the government control of your money and the ability to put you under constant surveillance. In a world of CBDCs, the government will know every purchase you make, every transaction you conduct and even your physical whereabouts at the point of purchase.

It’s a short step from there to negative interest rates, account freezes, tax withholding from your account and even putting you under FBI investigation if you vote for the wrong candidate or give donations to the wrong political party.

If that sounds like a stretch, it’s not.

China is already using its CBDC to deny travel and educational opportunities to political dissidents. Canada seized the bank accounts and crypto accounts of nonviolent trucker protesters last winter.

These kinds of “social credit scores” and political suppression will be even easier to conduct when CBDCs are completely rolled out.

How does this relate to what is sometimes called the Great Reset? This would be the movement toward a single global reserve currency.

CBDCs and the Great Reset
Displacing the dollar would involve a meeting and agreement similar to the original Bretton Woods agreement of 1944. The agreement could take many forms. Still, the process would conform to what many call the Great Reset.

Still, things don’t happen that quickly in elite circles. Even Bretton Woods took over two years to design and another five years to implement even under the duress of World War II. The transition from sterling to the U.S. dollar as the leading reserve currency took 30 years from 1914 to 1944.

As they say, it’s complicated. Still, there are some huge changes that could emerge from the Great Reset.

For example, a new global currency regime would be an opportunity to devalue all major currencies in order to steal wealth from savers.

All currencies cannot devalue against all other currencies at the same time; that’s a mathematical impossibility. Yet all currencies could devalue simultaneously against gold. This could easily drive gold prices to $5,000 per ounce or much higher to increase the “inflation tax” (I’m sure you agree that you’re paying more than enough already!).

The Surveillance State on Steroids
Another change would be that CBDCs make it much easier to impose negative interest rates, confiscations and account freezes on some or all account holders.

This can be used for simple policy purposes or as a tool of the total surveillance state. Surveillance of incorrect behavior as defined by the Communist Party is the real driver of the digital yuan more than any aspirations to a yuan reserve currency role.

All of these shifts are now underway. The U.S. won’t adopt its own CBDC overnight, but it’s coming sooner or later.

The endgame for CBDCs would closely resemble George Orwell’s dystopian novel Nineteen Eighty-Four. It would be a world of negative interest rates, forced tax collection, government confiscation, account freezes and constant surveillance.

You might not be able to fight back easily in the world of CBDCs, but there is one nondigital, nonhackable, nontraceable form of money you can still use.

It’s called gold.

 

[marsh]

Oil Spikes Amid Rumor Of Texas Power Shock | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

Oil Spikes Amid Rumor Of Texas Power Shock

THURSDAY, JUL 07, 2022 - 06:52 AM
With oil slumping into a deep bear market, tumbling (briefly) below $100 yesterday and just shy of where it traded before the Ukraine war, the Biden administration is preemptively declaring victory: after all, between sliding oil prices, refineries finally working in lockstep and spreads collapsing, it's no surprise we have seen gasoline prices drop for the past 22 days, the longest stretch since the covid depression.

Sadly for Biden, this steep drop in both oil and gasoline prices is unlikely to stick, and not just because the fund liquidation that sent oil so sharply lower is in wild contrast with the wildly bullish dynamics in the physical market where the prompt WTI spread surged higher on Wednesday, climbing by the most in four months and hitting the highest in recent history.



Nor because if reports of a $220BN Chinese stimulus are true, it means that Beijing is about to order every barrell of oil it can find. The real reason why oil may be about to spike sharply higher comes out of Texas where an imminent power shock may lead to widespread oil infrastructure shutdowns.

Here is what a dealer for one of the larger institutional crude and products books writes in:

... looking like Texas may be short power for the next week or so. Wild rumors floating around that the Governor may call on industrials (ie refineries) to idle or significantly de-rate plants for up to a week to keep from having to black out residential consumers (Mom&Pop) in a heat wave. Don’t want to make folks sweat at home in the dark during an election year.

Key takeaway? Cracks may just be getting started and could go parabolic here.

And if cracks soar, underlying prices won't be far behind. And yes, gasoline prices are about to reverse all recent losses with a vengeance. As for oil, well the reversal is already starting.

 

[marsh]

Goldman: "The World Is On The Brink Of A Rather Severe Recession" | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

Goldman: "The World Is On The Brink Of A Rather Severe Recession"

THURSDAY, JUL 07, 2022 - 06:15 AM
Goldman, which like Morgan Stanley and unlike Nomura and Deutsche Bank, refuses to make a recession its base case (but is quick to make it very clear that in case of recession the S&P will drop to 3,150), has looked back at all the 77 recessions across the globe since 1961 to provide context around the current economic environment in a report titled "Revisiting Recession Facts" (available to pro subs). The report's bottom-line according to Goldman's Chris Hussey: some of what we are seeing today -- economic overheating and large increases in rates -- suggests that the world could be on the brink of a rather severe recession." That said, the bank highlights several other aspects of the current environment which provide a buffer against a notable turndown in activity. And for once we agree with Goldman, according to which the key thing to watch is the "fiscal and monetary response to a downturn." And since Democrats will lose Congress this November and there will be no new fiscal stimulus until 2025 at the earliest, we would add that the only thing to watch is the monetary response, i.e., when the Fed will i) cut rates back to zero, ii) resume QE and/or iii) cut rates negative.

Before we dig into the Goldman report, which looks at key facts about the frequency and severity of recessions analyzing 77 recessions in advanced economies since 1961, here are the main findings:

• According to Goldman, the odds that the economy enters a recession in the next year at 30% in the US, 40% in the Euro area, and 45% in the UK.
• Goldman's subjective recession probabilities are significantly higher than the average 15% annual unconditional probability of advanced economies to enter a recession since the 1960s.
• The unemployment rate has risen by 2.7% in the median advanced economy recession since the 60s with larger increases in the 1980s and the UK but smaller increases in Japan. The distribution is slightly skewed towards larger increases in more severe recessions.
• Economic overheating—high unit labor cost growth and high core inflation—and large cumulative increases in the policy rate often precede severe recessions. In contrast, elevated private sector financial surpluses often foreshadow less severe recessions.
• Currently, across the advanced economies, unit labor cost growth, core inflation, and the expected total increase in the policy rate are generally running at levels similar to the runup of the typical advanced economy recession. Higher measures of economic overheating in the US, UK, and Canada than in Japan and the Euro area suggest that the next recession may be somewhat less shallow in these English-speaking G10 economies. In contrast, the private sector financial balance has been much higher than ahead of the typical recession for all economies, hinting at a shallow next recession.
• Other factors outside the historical dataset paint a mixed picture. On the pessimistic side, the monetary and fiscal policy response might be more limited than usual and energy disruptions are the main risk in Europe. On the optimistic side, long run inflation and wage expectations still appear mostly anchored and substantial supply side improvement opportunities remain.

With that in mind, let's delve deeper into the report starting with...

Frequency
Goldman summarizes the historical frequency of recessions using official recession classifications, such as the NBER in the US, when available. Exhibit 1 shows that the annual unconditional probability of advanced economies to enter a recession since the 1960s has been roughly 15% on average. It also shows that recession risk has not varied much across countries or over time over the past several decades.



Goldman's subjective recession probability in the US of 30% over the next year is also elevated relative to its own extended history. The annual probability of entering a recession in the US has averaged 12% since the 90’s (Exhibit 2), though it averaged a much higher 23% between 1855-1990. US recessions have become less frequent following the creation of the Federal Reserve, the anchoring of inflation expectations, and the decline in the relative importance of the cyclical manufacturing sector.



Severity
Goldman then defines the severity of recessions using the trough to peak change in the unemployment rate. The list excludes the “exogenous” pandemic recession of 2020 as increases in the unemployment rate were either outsized outliers in countries such as the US and Canada or significantly limited by furlough schemes in Europe and Japan.

Exhibit 3 shows that the unemployment rate has risen by 2.7% in the median advanced economy recession since the 60s, with somewhat larger increases in the 1980s (Exhibit 3, left).

Countries with larger increases in the unemployment rate also tend to have less frequent recessions—including the UK, Netherlands, and Sweden. In contrast, countries with smaller increases in the unemployment rate tend to have more frequent recessions, such as Germany, Italy, and Japan.



The distribution of the change in the unemployment rate during recessions shows a slight skew towards more severe recessions. The distributions in the UK and Canada are especially skewed towards more severe recessions, while the distribution in Japan is skewed towards less severe recessions.



Predictors of Severity
Goldman next summarizes the predictors of recession severity focusing on variables that have a long history: it finds that economic overheating—unit labor cost growth and high core inflation (Exhibit 5)—and large cumulative increases in the policy rate often precede severe recessions. In contrast, large private sector financial surpluses often foreshadow less severe recessions.



Implications
What do these findings imply for the size of the next recession? Across advanced economies, unit labor cost growth, core inflation, and the expected total increase in the policy rate are generally running at levels similar to the runup of the typical advanced economy recession, with more overheating in the US, UK, and Canada and less in Japan and the Euro area. In contrast, the private sector financial balance has been much higher than ahead of the typical recession across advanced economies.



Taken together, Exhibits 6 and 7 paint a mixed picture about the size of the next recession in the English-speaking G10 economies.

According to Goldman, on the pessimistic side, elevated economic overheating measures point to a higher than usual right tail risk of severe recession. On the optimistic side, the bank's strategists suggest that the large private sector surplus points to a shallow recession; what they ignore is the adverse effect of tens of trillions in lost equity value, which last time we looked is viewed as "savings" by modern economists too. So while there may be $2 trillion more in excess savings, there is $20 trillion less in stock market equity. Which is worse?

Turning to other factors outside of Goldman's historical dataset, we again see a mixed picture.

On the pessimistic side, the monetary and fiscal policy response might be more limited than usual because policy rates remain close to their effective lower bound while both central bank balance sheets and government debt levels are very large by historical standards. Moreover, the exposure to the war in Ukraine and the risk of energy supply shortages paint a relatively negative view for Germany and Italy, especially with the possibility of gas shutdowns in the winter. On the more optimistic side, long run inflation and wage expectations still appear mostly anchored, although as even Powell will admit, that is changing fast. Moreover, substantial supply side improvement opportunities remain in both global supply chains—where delivery times have shortened—and in the labor market.



What is more relevant however, is that as Goldman writes in a separate report titled Timing the cuts, "Investors seem to be shifting focus from pricing a potential recession, to pricing future Fed cuts ... for as early as 2023." Indeed, as we have been pounding the table since early this year, the timing of those cuts is all that matters.

 

[marsh]

US Rail System Still Deteriorating | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

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US Rail System Still Deteriorating

THURSDAY, JUL 07, 2022 - 04:00 PM
By Rick Paterson of Loop Capital Markets, first published in Railway Age

We’re now in the second half of 2022, when the four major U.S. Class I’s have committed to turning their operations around, but the current state of play is not encouraging. Only Union Pacific has made any progress in recent months, but that has been from a low base and fading somewhat over the past two weeks. We would regard UP and Norfolk Southern as now in a “steady state” and it’s the other two we’re more worried about in terms of trajectory.



BNSF’s intermodal business, in particular, is really struggling and in no shape to handle peak season volumes, which typically start around mid-August. Last week, BNSF Intermodal hit new lows in terms of network velocity (28.9 mph vs. 32.3 average in 2021) and on-time performance (only 57% of containers deramped within 24-hours of schedule), and a new high in terms of intermodal cars sitting idle for 48-hours or longer (1,610 out of 19,969 intermodal cars-on-line).

To be fair, weather and other external factors had an impact. More broadly, the full system has seen record trains holding for crews over the last six weeks and a high in recrews to 1,789 at a recrew rate of 13.4% last week.

Over in the east, CSX is coming off two bad weeks, recording multi-year lows in velocity and multi-year highs in trains holding for crews, terminal dwell, and the proportion of cars-online sitting idle for 48 hours or more. Last week on-time performance in its manifest network hit a new record low of 64%.

While it pains us to recount these statistics (download the complete State of the Rails report below), for what it’s worth we’re confident both BNSF and CSX have the talent to turn this around and fully expect them to do so, but you can’t start getting better until you stop getting worse and more patience will, unfortunately, be required from all of us.



Download this PDF

Fourth of July Double-Edged Sword
Last week we talked about 4th of July as both a blessing and a curse for the US railroads and we’ll dig into that a little more here. On the positive side, the holiday on Monday, subsequent four days of heavily reduced customer activity, and bookending weekends represents the second biggest drop in volume pressure of the year, behind of course the Christmas to New Years period. Historically, weekly volumes temporarily subside by 14% at NS, 13% at CSX, 11% at UP, and 8% at BNSF. These are big drops in volume pressure over a 9-day period, which is both positive and badly needed given the current state of affairs. However…

This period also represents peak summer vacation season, and the networks can obviously ill-afford to lose crews during a crew capacity crunch. In terms of putting some numbers around it, if we look at the monthly seasonality in the four years prior to the pandemic, midmonth crew headcount fell by 0.5% on average from mid-June into mid-July for the US rail industry. For some reason it’s more pronounced in the east, with CSX and NS down 3.3% and 0.8%, respectively, versus -0.2% at UP and +0.5% at BNSF. Clearly these mid-month statistics also understate the crew shortfalls over the first ~nine days of July. By July 15th the heavy vacation effect has partially normalized.

The railroads are of course well aware of this dynamic and no doubt doing all they can to buy out/stagger/delay vacations next week, but it likely won’t be completely successful and we’re still looking at a situation where the opportunity try to improve operations during the volume pressure reprieve will be diluted by temporarily increased crew scarcity.

Crew Deficit: ~4,100
Updating our crew models with the most recent data points for network velocity (last week) results in the following updated estimates with regard to the minimum number of additional crews required to trigger a service recovery. We’ve regressed slightly, with net velocity for the four major systems slightly slower last week, which pushes our estimated crew deficit from ~4,000 to ~4,100.

In terms of predicting the order in which these systems operationally inflect for the better, look at the % Deficit column on the far right. The smaller the number, the closer to recovery.



Some of the railroad’s T&E crew headcount numbers (Actual Crews) include trainees, which are higher as a percentage of total now than historically, which in turn makes the crew deficit numbers look slightly better (smaller) than they actually are. When railroads are running poorly, crew capacity is diluted by non-productive crew starts, such as deadheads (repositioning crews by road transport) and recrews (replacing a crew due to an unanticipated expiration of the allowable 12 hours). It will likely take several months before conductor graduates in the field are satisfactorily productive.