Same reason we are shut down, panic because this virus happens to spread very quickly in congested areas. We're no different. We have almost 50K deaths from the flu this year. Why didn't we shut down for that?
CORONA Main Coronavirus thread
- Thread starter Heliobas Disciple
- Start date
-
- Tags
- coronavirus
Same reason we are shut down, panic because this virus happens to spread very quickly in congested areas. We're no different. We have almost 50K deaths from the flu this year. Why didn't we shut down for that?
Krayola
Veteran Member
Disclaimer: I am not caught up on this thread...
I know it sounds bad when they say it lives for 17 days on surfaces but the couple of news articles I read said that they did find the virus after 17 days but they could not say if it was viable, meaning that it could have been traces of virus that did not cause infection. I think this is sloppy and I really feel like they should quantify that. Who cares if it's there after 17 days if it does not cause infection?
What we need is hard core information on how long it remains on surfaces and is it still viable/able to cause infection. That is what matters. If I missed something, please correct me.
I know it sounds bad when they say it lives for 17 days on surfaces but the couple of news articles I read said that they did find the virus after 17 days but they could not say if it was viable, meaning that it could have been traces of virus that did not cause infection. I think this is sloppy and I really feel like they should quantify that. Who cares if it's there after 17 days if it does not cause infection?
What we need is hard core information on how long it remains on surfaces and is it still viable/able to cause infection. That is what matters. If I missed something, please correct me.
adgal
Veteran Member
Okay - so this is not a logical conversation. You are not trying to learn, you are trying to convince everyone - including yourself, that this is not as bad as the rest of us realize it is. I'm not going to play anymore. I wish you the best of luck.
rafter
Since 1999
I'm back several pages so I'm not sure if this has been addressed or not. It was Barr that said..."if you are hording face masks in some warehouse somewhere and wanting to do price gouging you will be getting knock on your door".....he said if you were hording tp....you were safe. He had a smile on his face.
Hfcomms
EN66iq
Probably going to see a lot of stuff like this. In Wuhan if there are dead bodies left in flats and rotting away which is a good bet and with bodies probably still piled up left to be incinerated that is a heck of a vector for all other kinds of diseases. In third world countries after this virus ravages them then they get another whammy of all the disease that the virus will leave in it's wake.
Trivium Pursuit
Has No Life - Lives on TB
TT, you and I know that, I was just trying to get poppy up to speed on the situation. The AHA assumes an attack rate of only 30 to 45%, and I think we're pretty clear that it's at least 60%. Even so, their figures are a far cry from the "it's just the flu," bros.
Mark D
Now running for Emperor.
The hospitalization rate is hovering around 18% in New York. The death rate appears to be 2% - that will likely go down with better therapeutic interventions, but not by much, as the folks dying (for the most part) are already unhealthy.
A note on the hospitalization rate: that number is just for folks who tested positive; it doesn't address the majority of the population that contracts this bug and never get tested. I'd wager that the true hospitalization rate is around 9% of actual cases, and the actual death rate is about 1% of actual cases. Not good. Not apocalyptic.
Trivium Pursuit
Has No Life - Lives on TB
Poppy, Whatever you're smoking, extinguish it and put it in the trash can. It's not doing you or anybody any favors. Normalcy bias and more...
Hfcomms
EN66iq
And Coumo is blaming Trump, Fema and the Federal Government for not giving him a laundry list of items like 30,000 ventilators. Is the guy nuts or just stressed? You can't pull 30K ventilators our of your rectum nor 50 million masks and gowns. Nor can Trump wave a magic wand and make new doctors, nurses or drugs needed to use with the equipment. It just doesn't exist anywhere. He can fume and stamp his feet all he wants along with the other governors and it won't matter.
No government on the face of the earth can staff and equip a force to handle a pandemic. And how about the responsibilities of the States to prepare? The Federal Government isn't uncle sugar that can fix all of your problems. How much money has New York State, California and State Washington spent on free medical care for the illegals as well as money for everything else under the sun? Maybe if they would of spent some of their own money to fill warehouses full of PPE and stuff for a medical surge they would of been a little better prepared.
Macgyver
Has No Life - Lives on TB
50k when we normally average 20k. Something tells me a lot of the prior "they died of the flue" probably already had the WuFlu.
I'm still going with this shit has been here 2 months longer than known or let be known.
Very interesting. I was listening to Cuomo's update today, and he is actually AGREEING with Trump that "we can do both," referring to restarting the economy and treating the virus. He says he absolutely understands that we can't tank the economy any more. He also mentioned something I've been thinking. Have we quarantined/isolated the wrong people? Rather than shut the entire country down, we should have isolated/quarantined/supported the older, at-risk patients and the others at risk. Basically, the younger, healthier people who get this do fine (with some exceptions.) Why should they stop working. Instead, they need to proactively stay away from those at-risk. We must, of course, under that scenario support those who would be isolated. But it would have been much more economical to support the small group of at-risk patients rather than the entire country. (Just so no one misunderstands. I absolutely believe we must care for the aged population and others at risk. I'm a respect-life-from-conception-to-natural-death guy.)
Anyway, my big takeaway from Cuomo's "presidential-looking" update is he actually AGREES with Trump. Now we'll have to see if the media ignores that.
From everything I have seen - you get an inflection point in actual cases IMMEDIATELY when you lock down - its just that it takes weeks to show up in the data because infected people have to run thru the process of being detected, treated, and then either dying or recovering - saw this in China, now we see it in Italy.
Since half the USA is in a very soft lockdown and the other half isn't there is a decent chance this process gets even more spread out here in the USA as people move around and reinfect places that were previously on a downtrend.
I think there is some evidence for this last part based on the new rise in cases in Singapore, Taiwan and HK. They were in excellent shape and now weeks later their cases are rising because of people entering their country.
States in the USA are kind of like contiguous countries in that sense.
Everyone's on kind of on an emotional up-beat this week after weeks of bad news - probably mostly due to Trump's statements and the Porkulus bill.
I dont think that means much of anything in the long run.
Bear market rally.
Since half the USA is in a very soft lockdown and the other half isn't there is a decent chance this process gets even more spread out here in the USA as people move around and reinfect places that were previously on a downtrend.
I think there is some evidence for this last part based on the new rise in cases in Singapore, Taiwan and HK. They were in excellent shape and now weeks later their cases are rising because of people entering their country.
States in the USA are kind of like contiguous countries in that sense.
Everyone's on kind of on an emotional up-beat this week after weeks of bad news - probably mostly due to Trump's statements and the Porkulus bill.
I dont think that means much of anything in the long run.
Bear market rally.
Craftypatches
Veteran Member
the President’s words were “he works for us, not us working for him in a Pandemic!
Musbradny
Inactive
I saw and had some contact with one of the first deaths from the 4 corners Hantavirus outbreak. It was not pretty. Scared the crap out of me and all those working with him. Pathologist declined to do autopsy on him. In northern arizona.
Hfcomms
EN66iq
There is no way to spin up production that fast even if they wanted to and truth be told if you go on a vent with this virus your outcome isn't very good anyway. That is why the goal has to be prevention by non pharma intervention AKA social distancing until the virus eventually burns itself out or they can come up with a vaccine. And if you do what is required to tamp down the virus you destroy your economy. Frankly it's a $hit sandwich either way. Do you want it plain or with mustard? I'd take it with mustard but either way it's not going to be good.
TheSearcher
Are you sure about that?
I am truly concerned by that.
Silverfox
TWTFS
Went to pick up some gardening items today. First was Bi Mart. Once again ammo is cleaned out. Interestingly however I seem to be ahead of the curve so far in that garden seeds and all sorts of planting items that have anything to do with food are rapidly disappearing now. Picked up the few items I need to greenhouse. Wokeness is occurring in waves. Oh, and Winco is slowly getting worse with the emptying of shelves. No more bulk food purchases for you cause- Chinese Flu!
TWTFS.
TWTFS.
Tom McDowell
BAMN
New York and the East Coast in general have the Italy strain (clade) of the SARS-COV.
The separate clades evolved in China, Wuhan. The Italian strain was seeded by the Chinese in Italy and Iran.
Can't remember if it's designated L or S clade, this clade (NYC) suggest higher rates of R0 and CFR. Either way as Dr. Niman points out, the clade has a marker (ORF 8) which distinguishes it as the Honey Badger strain. One could possibly call it SARS COV 2.1 and the disease COVID 20.
At any rate, it's not the same as is prevalent on the West Coast (which is bad but milder). Both strains have the Polybasic cleavage site (Furin widespread) which allows the infection to move into vital organs, heart, kidneys etc..
The entire East Coast is seeded and ready to very soon become NYC.
The delay in testing (mostly the criteria which did not include Italy) created a very large pool of infectious carriers of this strain.
From what I've been able to glean:
It's highly likely many flu deaths, heart attacks, evolving into pneumonia cases, etc., were misdiagnosed during the last 45 days.
It's also worth considering this could be some sort of binary release of an RNA virus which can compliment each other. Not saying it did not evolve on it's own, yet it is known the an RNA virus can and does, evolve to take advantage of human antibodies produced by a previous infection to the same type virus, to newly infect the same human with the slightly modified (evolved) strain. Dengue and 1918. This usually results in a higher CFR. Which is precisely why no one speaks to the second wave probabilities. Too horrible to consider, "let's just get through this now," "it'll be better soon after the near term." Gives people hope.
I'm sure I missed a few points, but that's the jist.
===
.
The separate clades evolved in China, Wuhan. The Italian strain was seeded by the Chinese in Italy and Iran.
Can't remember if it's designated L or S clade, this clade (NYC) suggest higher rates of R0 and CFR. Either way as Dr. Niman points out, the clade has a marker (ORF 8) which distinguishes it as the Honey Badger strain. One could possibly call it SARS COV 2.1 and the disease COVID 20.
At any rate, it's not the same as is prevalent on the West Coast (which is bad but milder). Both strains have the Polybasic cleavage site (Furin widespread) which allows the infection to move into vital organs, heart, kidneys etc..
The entire East Coast is seeded and ready to very soon become NYC.
The delay in testing (mostly the criteria which did not include Italy) created a very large pool of infectious carriers of this strain.
From what I've been able to glean:
- It's only going to get worse.
- Infection Rates should not be calculated from aggregated data (combining all cases), Italy and Spain's numbers should be used as the data set for projections; R0, Total Infections => to Hospitalizations, to ICU, to Deaths. (side note, as ICU cases overwhelm the systems capacity, the CFR projections must adjust)
- Demographics of infection will continue to move to the younger demographics increasing their respective CFR.
- Containment is still possible, however we'd need to move to full Wuhan mode (minus the welders).
- Real time testing would have to be implemented.
- Intercontinental and continental travel should be severely limited to contain the Italian strain from seeding further, as soon as possible.
It's highly likely many flu deaths, heart attacks, evolving into pneumonia cases, etc., were misdiagnosed during the last 45 days.
It's also worth considering this could be some sort of binary release of an RNA virus which can compliment each other. Not saying it did not evolve on it's own, yet it is known the an RNA virus can and does, evolve to take advantage of human antibodies produced by a previous infection to the same type virus, to newly infect the same human with the slightly modified (evolved) strain. Dengue and 1918. This usually results in a higher CFR. Which is precisely why no one speaks to the second wave probabilities. Too horrible to consider, "let's just get through this now," "it'll be better soon after the near term." Gives people hope.
I'm sure I missed a few points, but that's the jist.
===
.
pinkelsteinsmom
Veteran Member
why are people engaging this person and few more like this one. Ignore them and hopefully they will go away
Not referring to your comment specifically, but so many people want to compare CV to flu stats. We are nearly at the end of flu season. We are at the very beginning of this virus! We can't compare flu stats to CV stats until it's over.
20Gauge
TB Fanatic
That does make sense....
20Gauge
TB Fanatic
As a percentage.... yep you are correct..... when applied to a larger population base, maybe not....
Lilbitsnana
On TB every waking moment
Birmingham, AL is going to stay-in-place immediately after city council votes on it shortly. Temporarily saying it will end midnight April 3rd
Because we are expecting far more deaths than 50k from this bug. A six figure death toll might be the best we can hope for, as I have seen several predictions that the number is likely to be 1.1 million to 2.2 million. Guess those of us that survive will know in a few months.
Jubilee on Earth
Veteran Member
Honey, you've got to stop with the flu thing already. Have you listened to Chris Martenson's videos on people who have slow adjustment reactions? I know many people have said it here before, so I'll say it again. THIS IS NOT THE FLU.
So far it appears that in the U.S., the death rate doubles every 2-3 days. If that trend continues, we'll have hit that number of deaths you just mentioned in about 1-2 weeks--far worse than any other country. Let's hope that's not the case, and that the rate will slow down. Either way, you have to remember that 1) The flu season is at least 6 months long, and yet we're only a month into this coronavirus and 2) this flu season's deaths MAY actually include many untested coronavirus patients.
It's not slowing down. It's not getting better. Not here, not in Italy. I know that's tough for some people to swallow, but you have to stop posting that nonsense. You're not doing yourself or anyone else any favors.
I don't like using the ignore feature, but I'll be honest. If I read anymore stuff like you keep posting, I'm going to put you on ignore. I'm sure you're a really nice person, but I don't have the time or desire to read silly posts on this feed. If you truly don't get it and want help, please ask. Otherwise, please refrain.
Lilbitsnana
On TB every waking moment
The Southern Group, Alabama
@SouthernGroupAL
·
23m
‘Last resort’: Alabama’s plan for deciding which coronavirus patients get ventilators #coronavirus #SlowTheSpread #alpolitics
Alabama’s plan for which coronavirus patients should get ventilators
According to a state plan, any of a wide range of underlying health conditions – such as metastasized cancer, AIDS, "severe mental retardation," advanced dementia and "severe burns" – could disqual...
al.com
30,000 vents? Really?
Jubilee on Earth
Veteran Member
Good question. I had listened to a couple of podcasts on this. The R0 is more of a biological/epidemiological feature of the virus based on spreadability, but it doesn't take into account massive human exposure, like if someone flew on a plane of 300 people or visited a crowded concert or theme park. Those kinds of social behaviors in tight, crowded areas cause far greater spreadability. I mean, in those situations, a person can easily infect 100 people. But that doesn't make the R0 100. Does that make sense? Dr. John Campbell actually goes into some of this in his YouTube video today.
Doomer Doug
TB Fanatic
Di blasio is a fool who is going to bring plague to New York City worse than anything since the Dutch settled New Amsterdam in the 1630's. Diblasio has made a series of bad decisions and is nothing like digardia? in the 1940"s. The failure of leadership of the liberals is stunning in what will result. New York City voters re elected this clown last November and will DIE IN THEIR FOLLY. Cuomo has amazed me with his competence and sound judgment in this crisis. Yeah, he is a marxist moron but he clearly has some chops and skin in the game. As usual both New York State and New York City have that whining demand for special treatment in any type of disaster on full display. They can get in line with the rest of us. Pelosi, well she is bringing fire down, danger close on her head cuz the Democrat core groups want their F%^&&& money, and don't want her games.
DuckandCover said:
I posted about the younger people in Calif getting it because that age group thought that they wouldn't get it. They just kept partying at the beach, etc. Some were saying "If I get it I get it". Well, they're getting it! I am pretty sure that a lot of young folks don't have good health insurance either. My significant other was in the hospital for a heart problem a few weeks ago. 8 days in ICU would have cost $114,000 if he had not had good insurance. Kids just don't think about things like that.
Tom McDowell
BAMN
The US has more than 50,000 coronavirus cases
There are at least 50,076 cases of the novel coronavirus in the United States, according to CNN Health’s tally of US cases that are detected and tested in the United States through US public health systems.
At least 646 people have died.
There have already been over 100 deaths reported today due to coronavirus, according to a tally by CNN.
The total includes cases from all 50 states, the District of Columbia and other US territories, as well as all repatriated cases.
===
.
There are at least 50,076 cases of the novel coronavirus in the United States, according to CNN Health’s tally of US cases that are detected and tested in the United States through US public health systems.
At least 646 people have died.
There have already been over 100 deaths reported today due to coronavirus, according to a tally by CNN.
The total includes cases from all 50 states, the District of Columbia and other US territories, as well as all repatriated cases.
===
.
Our deaths will far out run China????
So now we know where you get your information from the CCP! or WHO but aren’t they the same thing???
If your buying their numbers let me sell you some ocean view real estate in AZ.
adgal
Veteran Member
And those are the ones who have been tested. I wonder if there is any way to figure out what the percentage is of those who have it and haven't been tested yet? (Or will just be pronounced that they have it by their doctors and never become a part of the statistics.)
Or, worse yet, "it will be all over by Easter." We'll have some big 'ol fires by then.
Tom McDowell
BAMN
Coronavirus cases are spiking in these US states right now
From CNN's Matthew Hilk
New York state is soaring in coronavirus case numbers, higher and faster than anywhere in America, with more than 25,000 cases and at least 210 deaths by Tuesday — and case totals are doubling every few days.
But in recent days, numbers in Louisiana, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Florida and Georgia are also spiking fast, according to CNN's state-by-state county of positive Covid-19 cases reported by state and local health departments.
Here's where things stand now:
===
I don't agree with the term "spike", leading to fall off. More like rising quickly.
Also, CA, and WA are seeded with the slightly different version of the virus. It's not just about close proximity.
ETA see: New York and the East Coast in general have the Italy strain (clade) of the SARS-COV
===
.
From CNN's Matthew Hilk
New York state is soaring in coronavirus case numbers, higher and faster than anywhere in America, with more than 25,000 cases and at least 210 deaths by Tuesday — and case totals are doubling every few days.
But in recent days, numbers in Louisiana, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Florida and Georgia are also spiking fast, according to CNN's state-by-state county of positive Covid-19 cases reported by state and local health departments.
Here's where things stand now:
- Michigan rose from just 65 cases about week ago to 1,328 on Tuesday afternoon, including 15 deaths.
- Louisiana, which reported no cases until mid-March, topped the 1,000-mark and has seen more than 500 new cases reported just since the weekend, with 1,388 cases and 46 deaths by Tuesday afternoon.
- Pennsylvania saw a spike of more than 200 cases overnight, bringing the total to 851 cases statewide on Tuesday. Of those cases, seven people have died.
- Florida and Georgia — two states where leaders have faced criticism for being slow to enact restrictions — both crossed the 1,000-case threshold over the weekend and continue to rise in cases at a rate of at least 20% each day. As of Tuesday afternoon, Florida recorded 1,324 cases and 17 deaths, while Georgia reported 1,026 cases and 32 fatalities.
- Indiana went from a handful of cases about a week ago to 365 Tuesday afternoon.
===
I don't agree with the term "spike", leading to fall off. More like rising quickly.
Also, CA, and WA are seeded with the slightly different version of the virus. It's not just about close proximity.
ETA see: New York and the East Coast in general have the Italy strain (clade) of the SARS-COV
===
.
pinkelsteinsmom
Veteran Member
Easy, multiply that number by 800. They said this here in Seattle about a week ago, for everyone that has tested positive, you can add 800 more.
adgal
Veteran Member
I remember reading that - was that 800 for everyone hospitalized or everyone tested?
bw
Fringe Ranger
The R0 is the COMBINATION of the attribute of the virus and the environment it's in. Given equal environments, a one virus might have a low R0, another might have a high R0, depending on the biochemistry of that virus. Given the same virus, it might have a low R0 in a locked-down environment, and have a high one on spring break. Epidemiologists are always talking about getting the R0 below One. They aren't talking about bioengineering, they're talking about changing the environment to limit the ability of the virus to replicate.
One episode of a hundred infections does not make an R0=100, because R0 is the AVERAGE across the environment. Not everyone goes on spring break, and some are recluses. Work out all the infections and you can figure out the R0.