CORONA Main Coronavirus thread

bw

Fringe Ranger
To be able to break up words and entire sentences like this, with the correct punctuation and emphasis, cannot be attributed to a stroke. I might believe it more if he didn't place the apostrophes EXACTLY where they needed to be to make the phonetic understandable.

I PMd OA a few days ago, and warned him that people (me included) were avoiding his stuff. He told me he's trying to get it under control.

It's possible that this is a folksy face he decided to adopt, with the stroke as a thin justification. This feels tacky and shallow and I don't like it.

It's also possible that he's mentally saying the words he writes, and (post-stroke) it looks wrong to him unless he edits the words to look like he's saying them. Whether or not he talked like that before the stroke, it's how he's pronouncing in his head now. Objectively he knows the apostrophes don't belong there, but he can't get it to look right without them. This is not my field, but I've heard of stranger things arising from brain injuries.

Absent further evidence, I'm going with the second explanation because it doesn't require that I think badly of OA.
 
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northern watch

TB Fanatic
Vincent Lee‏Verified account @Rover829 6h6 hours ago

HANOI, Feb 13 (Reuters) - Vietnam has quarantined a community of 10,000 people near the capital, Hanoi, for 20 days over fears that the coronavirus could spread there, two local officials told Reuters on Thursday.
 

Samuel Adams

Has No Life - Lives on TB
T
I PMd OA a few days ago, and warned him that people (me included) were avoiding his stuff. He told me he's trying to get it under control.

It's possible that this is a folksy face he decided to adopt, with the stroke as a thin justification. This feels tacky and shallow and I don't like it.

It's also possible that he's mentally saying the words he writes, and it looks wrong to him unless he edits the words to look like he's saying them. Whether or not he talked like that before the stroke, it's how he's pronouncing in his head now. Objectively he knows the apostrophes don't belong there, but he can't get it to look right without them. This is not my field, but I've heard of stranger things arising from brain injuries.

Absent further evidence, I'm going with the second explanation because it doesn't require that I think badly of OA.

That and his heart certainly seems to be in the right place.
Folks might consider lightening up a little, now, as a practice run for the near IRL future.
 

adgal

Veteran Member
I was listening on ksat local news, a reporter asked about self isolating in San Antonio and then the followup question was about a college prof (here in Texas?) and his wife was in isolation and he was iving with her and still teaching???? answer was that we don't know about that? so what are the rules of home isolation???
I head that too!!! And I would think that isolation means that you stay away from EVERYONE - right? If she's supposed to be isolated and she lives with him - he should be staying home too. But that same CDC person said that people weren't contagious unless they had a fever - and that's wrong too. Scary!
 

SouthernBreeze

Has No Life - Lives on TB
I PMd OA a few days ago, and warned him that people (me included) were avoiding his stuff. He told me he's trying to get it under control.

It's possible that this is a folksy face he decided to adopt, with the stroke as a thin justification. This feels tacky and shallow and I don't like it.

It's also possible that he's mentally saying the words he writes, and it looks wrong to him unless he edits the words to look like he's saying them. Whether or not he talked like that before the stroke, it's how he's pronouncing in his head now. Objectively he knows the apostrophes don't belong there, but he can't get it to look right without them. This is not my field, but I've heard of stranger things arising from brain injuries.

Absent further evidence, I'm going with the second explanation because it doesn't require that I think badly of OA.

I have never felt badly of OA. I don't think he meant any offense to anyone. His posts were just annoying. I read posts here, everyday, that are annoying, but I don't think they are trying to be offensive.
 

Samuel Adams

Has No Life - Lives on TB
What if the ghost cities of China were the result of this happening before, and they didn't tell anybody?

WOO-HOO !!!

:)

Wouldn’t it clear things up considerably were there a history of honest and forthright reporting of the facts, from Chinese or US media.....

Heck, either would suffice.
I’m not particular.
 

northern watch

TB Fanatic
JPMorgan Admits "Without A Historical Daily Breakdown" Its Virus Model Is Worthless

Profile picture for user Tyler Durden
by Tyler Durden
Zero Hedge
Thursday, 02/13/2020 - 13:45


When confronted with the unprecedented "one-time" revision in infected Covid cases, which added a whopping 15,000 infections to the Chinese disease total, Wall Street has responded in one of two ways. The first, as exhibited by the vast majority of sellside analysts who refuse to admit they are wrong, such as Goldman (described earlier), simply ignored the new data, treating thousands of infected people as if they are somehow a different group, and instead focused on the genetic tests which continue to decline - which somehow magically "confirms" that the pandemic is contained - even as a giant backlog of symptomatic, and potentially terminal, patients, who get CAT screens, has built up simply because China does not have the capacity to test more than 2-3,000 per day.

The second response, far more rare due to its honesty, was demonstrated by JPMorgan this morning when the strategist keeping tabs on China's pandemic, MW Kim, admitted that following the latest update, his model no longer makes sense. Until last night, JPMorgan was perhaps best known for having extrapolated a base and pessimistic case scenario, and providing daily "beats" and "misses" when the official numbers were reported. The problem is that while until recently most of the reported cases "beat" JPM's forecast, which heading into today had a pessimistic case of 50,790 cases...


...the latest data which pushed the total number of cases above 60,000 has thrown the company's forecast into a tailspin, and Kim concedes that his model is no longer appropriate.


This is what JPM said this morning:
China’s total infected toll increased by 15,152 cases and reached 59,804 (including 13,332 clinically diagnosed cases in Hubei) on 12-Feb-20, with 1,367 deaths (96%, or 1,310, deaths are from Hubei province), according to the National Health Commission. The jump in infections today was mainly due to the revision of the diagnosis guidelines in Hubei province. Under the previous method, i.e. excluding clinically diagnosed cases, the total infected toll would be 46,472 (vs. JPMe: 47,102), largely in line with the shape of our base-case epidemiology model.
Under the revised method, however, the reported infected toll of 60k is one week ahead of our curve. The old series still tracks our model scenario, leading us to assume that the 14,840 new reports are a cumulative adjustment. However, without a historical daily breakdown, the jump distorts our infection forecast and shape.
This means that as of this moment, even the brightest "epidemiologists" on Wall Street, those had goalseeked the previous data series and fitted it to give them some forecast capabilities, have no idea what is going on.
As such, JPM is "currently considering three possible adjustments to the infection curve – new shape, smoothing, and scale-up (without Ro adjustment). We will revisit model variables after monitoring Friday’s reported numbers."
What this means for JPM's infection curve adjustment is the following:
A one-time rebase in infection data as the infected toll growth curve is decelerating, potentially diluting the curves strength in forecasting a trend. Consequently, we think a change in the curve may be required. This is complicated by the change which applies only to Hubei. Hubei accounting for ~80%+ of the post-adjustment infected total limits the extent of the distortion. As monitor next time series, our options include
  1. infection rate assumption changes (curve shift),
  2. smoothing (amortising the jump impact to previous days), and
  3. scale-up (using the current curve, but scaling it up assuming the same infection rate).We will revisit our model assumptions after Friday’s reported numbers.
And visually:


And since JPM has to justify why it didn't account for this change in definition of a "confirmed case" even though fringe blogs such as this one warned it was coming, this is what the bank said:
The new fifth edition “Guideline of new coronavirus pneumonia diagnosis and treatment” added that suspected cases in Hubei Province will be considered as confirmed ones when there are obvious pneumonia characteristics after clinical diagnosis, even without the nucleic acid test.
We believe the change in definition is necessary given that COVID-19 is a new disease and its diagnostic standards needs to be optimized as knowledge increases. Hubei province is a severely affected area and may not have enough diagnostic capacity to carry out nucleic acid tests for every suspected case. Nucleic acid test accuracy is also not guaranteed, and false negatives may exists. The change in the definition could lead to better control of the infection and block the route of transmission.
It certainly could lead to that, which also explains why no other province besides Hubei has decided to adopt it as the rest of China is still under the impression that it will boost public confidence if it keeps underrepresenting the full severity of the pandemic, when in reality just the opposite is happening as China's population watches surreal social media images and videos showing a government response as if a viral plague has been unleashed on the nation where people just randomly fall dead in most major cities.

In other words, whereas JPMorgan would like to give an "adjusted infection" number, just as Goldman did when it dismissed the overnight case surge, the bank refuses to do so until it has some credible justification behind it. Which also means that it is now up to Beijing to provide a new set of data that actually allows banks to goalseek the Thursday surge in a way that allows them to once again ease client nerves by repeating daily that the number of new cases is declining and the pandemic is contained. Of course, if China fails to co-operate, not even Wall Street's biggest bulls will be able to (mis)represent the official data in a bullish light, as it emerges soon that the reality on the ground is far, far worse than anyone had expected as what now almost certainly appears to be a leaked bio-engineered virus continues to crippled both China's economy and global supply chains.

Finally, for the TL/DR version of what all of the above really means, we leave it to an email blasted to all of BMO capital market traders this morning.


* * *

As an appendix, here is some additional data on how the latest "official" numbers stack up, courtesy of JPM:
  • Infection rate: Total infected toll jumped by 34% on 12-Feb, reflecting the revised diagnosis guidelines in Hubei province, which include the clinically diagnosed cases in the Confirmed Cases category. Excluding Hubei province, the growth in the infected toll decelerated for the 9th consecutive day to 2.8% d/d.
  • Mortality rate (total): Due to the jump in total infected toll, the nationwide mortality rate decreased to 2.29% from 2.49% after the upward trend in the previous six days.
  • Mortality rate (Hubei province): As a result of the large increase in the infection toll, the mortality rate came down to 2.72% on 12 February from 3.20% on the previous day.
  • Mortality rate (ex-Hubei province): The mortality rate slightly increased to 0.49% from 0.40% on the previous day, extending the overall upward trend to the 8th consecutive day.
  • Recovery rate (= recovered/infected): The overall recovery rate declined by 1%p to 10% on 12-Feb, led by a sharp increase in the infected toll. In Hubei province, the recovery rate moderated to 7% from 8% on the previous day as well. However, excluding Hubei, the recovery rate grew to 21% from 19% on the previous day.




 

20Gauge

TB Fanatic
Global Times‏Verified account @globaltimesnews 11m11 minutes ago

Amid the #COVID-19 outbreak, the hotel closure rate across #China is over 80 percent; Occupancy rates of most open hotels are just above 10 percent: industry insider. http://bit.ly/38kLhYq
I was going to say who in their right mind would be doing the hotel thing., but then I remembered about those stuck in place.... so 10% isn't so bad....though I expected a zero percent....
 

jed turtle

a brother in the Lord
Not arguing with you, 20Gauge, but I think the number is closer to 30 days...

I sincerely hope I'm wrong.
30 days?
hmmm. I’m thinking 7 to 14 days the situation will be such that the herd will be irreversibly spooked, then the stampede...
Eta: come to think of it, I’ve already spooked enough of my friends and family (and myself...), I expect “my” herd will be taking this appropriately “do or die” seriously in the next 2-3 days.
 

northern watch

TB Fanatic
European Union Fears Coronavirus ‘Impact’ on Global Economy
Breitbart London
13 February 2020

FRANKFURT, Germany (AP) – The European Union warned Thursday that the spread of the viral outbreak in China is a risk for the economy but that its full impact will depend on how long it lasts and how far it spreads.

The European Commission, the bloc’s executive arm, said in its winter economic forecast that “the baseline assumption is that the outbreak peaks in the first quarter, with relatively limited global spillovers.”


The longer the outbreak, which has been named COVID-19, lasts, the higher the likelihood of “knock-on effects” through lowered business optimism and tougher access to credit around the globe.

Elsewhere in its forecast, the Commission predicted stable growth of 1.2 per cent this year and next in the 19 countries that use the euro as their currency. For the full 27-member European Union growth is expected to ease to 1.4 per cent this year and next from 1.5 per cent last year.

Economy Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni said that it’s too early to make an assessment.

But he added: “What is sure is … that the global importance of the China economy will produce an impact.”

The spread of the virus has led to prolonged shutdowns at Chinese plants that are important for the global economy and to reductions in travel.

European Union Fears Coronavirus 'Impact' on Global Economy
 

Trivium Pursuit

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Huh. You know, that's a pretty good explanation. That and I like it because it means I'm a lot less likely to die if I go grocery shopping.

It also does a nice job explaining things like that woman in Japan; without the necessary receptors we may be less susceptible. Didn't I once hear that the cold is a coronavirus?
Seems I've read on this thread something indicating that the virus is also now hitting a number of receptors in other organs. Not just the lungs. What I do not recall was whether the receptors in these organs were Ace2 or something else.
 

Hfcomms

EN66iq
I was referring to personal attacks. OA has been taking a lot of hits just for a writing style, not for his opinions. I think its a measure of how stressed some are getting. It's not necessarily out of meanness; just maybe frustration and a sign of the times. It's coming in the real world, too.

If someone’s style or content bothers you just skim on by it or put them on ignore or however you do it with the new software. Not worth getting your knickers in a snit. If someones style bothers you that bad then maybe you need to step away and decompress for awhile? Let the mods or admins determine whether they feel it’s intentional or not. Few of us will ever meet each other in the flesh and as much as I like this board I value my own peace of mind too much to let any of you get under my skin and vice versa.
 

DazedandConfused

Veteran Member
30 days?
hmmm. I’m thinking 7 to 14 days the situation will be such that the herd will be irreversibly spooked, then the stampede...
Eta: come to think of it, I’ve already spooked enough of my friends and family (and myself...), I expect “my” herd will be taking this appropriately “do or die” seriously in the next 2-3 days.
At work last night I heard a number of people say that they were starting to stock up supplies. Big change from last week. folks are finally starting to wake up. Expect big crowds this weekend at Walmart, etc..
 

Zagdid

Veteran Member
sorry if a dupe ... too many pages


California lab says it discovered coronavirus vaccine in 3 hours
fair use Published 7 hours ago By Evie FordhamFOXBusiness

An American biotech company says it created a coronavirus vaccine three hours after getting access to the virus' genetic sequence in mid-January, and now scientists are racing to get the vaccine on the market in record time.
Inovio Pharmaceuticals is based in Pennsylvania, but scientists in its laboratory in San Diego made the discovery.

NEW CORONAVIRUS CASES SOAR, DEATHS RISE
"We were able to rapidly construct our vaccine in a matter of about three hours once we had the DNA sequence from the virus available because of the power of our DNA medicine platform," Dr. J. Joseph Kim, Inovio's president and CEO, told FOX Business. "Our goal is to start phase one human testing in the U.S. early this summer."

China has reported 254 new daily deaths and a spike in new daily virus cases of 15,152, after new methodology was applied in the hardest-hit province of Hubei as to how cases are categorized.

CORONAVIRUS TREATMENT MAY COME FROM AN UNEXPECTED PLACE
Inovio's stock jumped to $5.32 a share a few days after the company announced it was selected to work on a coronavirus vaccine.
The American company is partnering with Beijing Advaccine, a Chinese company, to work on the vaccine. Inovio also received $9 million to work on the vaccine from the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations, which is backed by billionaire Bill Gates.

TickerSecurityLastChangeChange %
INOINOVIO PHARMACEUTICALS3.98+0.64+19.16%
CORONAVIRUS LIKELY TO HIT US GROWTH

"We’ve done this many, many times before. The most relevant was building our vaccine against MERS virus, which is a coronavirus in the same family as COVID-19," Kim said.
Inovio took a vaccine for Zika virus from construct design to human testing in the U.S. in less than seven months, Kim said.
"We’re planning to beat our own record," he said. "Maybe we could do that in close to half that time."
Inovio is building a coalition for the "war" against COVID-19 that will require scaling up to thousands upon thousands of doses, Kim said.
Another U.S. company, Maryland-based Novavax, is aiming to make a coronavirus vaccine in as little as three months, although such vaccines can take years to develop. The company made an Ebola vaccine in 90 days.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.
 

raven

TB Fanatic
At work last night I heard a number of people say that they were starting to stock up supplies. Big change from last week. folks are finally starting to wake up. Expect big crowds this weekend at Walmart, etc..
look up your local Walmart webpage - it is under find a store - scroll down about half way - there is a chart that displays the busiest hours and busiest days. Shop accordingly
 

Heliobas Disciple

TB Fanatic
I believe that his is the senate testimony being talked about. Good stuff.


(Long post... this is Part 1 of 2)


Transcript for CDC Telebriefing: CDC Update on Novel Coronavirus
Press Briefing Transcript
Wednesday, February 12, 2020
Please Note: This transcript is not edited and may contain errors.

Operator:
Welcome and thank you for standing by. At this time, I would like to inform all participants that your lines have been placed on a listen only mode until the question and answer session of today’s call. Today’s call is also being recorded. If anyone has any objections, you may disconnect at this time. And now I would like to turn the call over to Mr. Benjamin Haynes. Sir, you may begin.
Benjamin Haynes: Thank you Sue. And thank you all for joining us for today’s briefing to update you on CDC’s 2019 novel coronavirus response. We are joined today by Dr. Nancy Messonnier, Director of CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, who will give open remarks before taking your questions. I will now like to turn the call over to Dr. Messonnier.

Dr. Nancy Messonnier: Thank you for joining us. Today, I would like to provide a few updates on important developments over the last few days. First, I want to extend my condolences to the family of the American who died in China over the weekend. As far as we know, this is the first American to die from this new coronavirus. Though more than a thousand people in China have died. My sympathy and my thanks go to the people of China, for those who have lost loved ones and those who are on the front lines battling this virus. In China, they are taking aggressive measures just as we are in the United States. Since we briefed you last, there has been one new confirmed novel coronavirus infection detected in the United States. The new confirmed infection is an individual who returned from Wuhan and was quarantined at Marine Corps Air Station Miramar. This individual was on one of the last Department of State flights out of Wuhan, the epicenter of the outbreak in China. Given the spread of the virus in Wuhan, it is not surprising to see a positive case among people who recently returned from there. That is in fact the reason they are being quarantined. Currently the person has mild illness but is hospitalized. This brings the total number of confirmed positives in the United States to 13. I want to clarify some of the reports that have been circulating about this case. Last Thursday when one of the planes from Wuhan landed at Miramar, a few people were sick and transported to local hospitals for further evaluation. These people were placed in isolation and samples were taken for testing. When running laboratory diagnostics for any disease, anywhere in the world, the ability to match the individual to the specimen is key, and is part of the normal procedures put in place to ensure that that matching is done correctly. But in this situation with this patient, it didn’t work correctly, and the patient was misidentified initially as negative. The issue was identified within 24 hours. The CDC tested the sample, the positive result was conveyed quickly to the local public health and CDC teams. The mishap was unfortunate, but we have corrected this from happening again in the future by adding additional quality control. And it’s really important to emphasize that during this time appropriate infection control precautions were taken around everyone, including around this patient who, again, is doing well. Now I’d also like to update you on our diagnostic test kits. As you know, this is a dynamic, rapidly evolving situation, and our response continues to be based on the latest science. We continue to be flexible to meet the public health challenges that the virus presents, and clearly a success is the CDC rapid development of a diagnostic and rapid deployments to the states, which was clearly important to try to bring the testing closer to patients to avoid delays that have been inherent in sending samples to CDC. When the state receives these test kits, their procedure is to do quality control themselves in their own laboratories. Again, that is part of the normal procedures, but in doing it, some of the states identified some inconclusive laboratory results. We are working closely with them to correct the issues and as we’ve said all along, speed is important, but equally or more important in this situation is making sure that the laboratory results are correct. During a response like this, we know things may not always go as smoothly as we would like. We have multiple levels of quality control to detect issues just like this one. We’re looking into all of these issues to understand what went wrong, and to prevent these same things from happening in the future. Before I take questions, I want to give you a couple more updates. Since the airport screening began in mid-January, CDC and its partners have screened more than 30,000 passengers from China. With the temporary restrictions on travel, we are seeing fewer and fewer travelers from China, especially from Hubei province. Passengers are being funneled through 11 airports, most of these people are coming from parts of mainland China outside of Hubei, show no symptoms and have not been assessed as high risk. Those who passed the screening continue on to their final destination where they self-monitor their health for 14 days in cooperation with their state and local health departments. We’re asking these people to limit their activities and stay home during that 14-day period. Our goal is to be as least restrictive as possible while ensuring the safety and health of all Americans. Since starting our travel restrictions and funneling through airports, we have not detected any cases among returning travelers from China. Most of the U.S. cases were found before the travel restrictions were put in place among travelers who returned from Wuhan and later sought medical care for their illnesses. These cases were picked up by astute clinicians and reported to CDC. We are continually reassessing our recommendations around quarantine and self-monitoring and will continue to work with state and local public health departments to refine and improve this process. Most of the diseases in China, however, we can and should be prepared for this new virus to gain a foothold in the U.S. The goal of the measures we have taken to date are to slow the introduction and impact of this disease in the United States but at some point, we are likely to see community spread in the U.S. Or other countries and this will trigger a change in our response strategy. This will require the effort of all levels of Government, the public health system and our communities as we face these challenges together. We are focusing now on preparing in other areas, including development of guidance for our health care practitioners, and planning for increased demand on our health care system. One important aspect of this is taking steps to make sure there are enough supplies and appropriate guidance to prevent the spread of the disease, especially among health care personnel caring for patients. We understand the importance of providing guidance that health care facilities can implement given the availability of personal protective equipment or PPE supplies. CDC talks regularly with health care industry partners as well as PPE manufacturers and distributors to assess availability of PPE. At this time, some partners are reporting higher than usual demand for select N95 respirators and face masks. CDC does not currently recommend the use of face masks for the general public. This virus is not spreading in the community. If you are sick or a patient under investigation and not hospitalized, CDC recommends wearing a face mask when around other people and before entering a health care provider’s office, but when you are alone, in your home, you do not need to wear a mask. People who are in close contact with someone with novel coronavirus, for example, household contacts and care givers of people with known or suspected 2019, I’m sorry, nCoV 2019, we should wear a face mask if they are in the same room as the patient and that patient is not able to wear a face mask. Health care personnel should wear PPE including respirators when caring for confirmed or possible nCoV patients because they’re in direct contact with those patients which increases their risk of exposure. We will continue to work with our public health partners around the clock to address this public health threat. Some good news this week is that yesterday the first group of 195 people who returned from Wuhan on a State Department flight completed their 14-day quarantine. None of those people have this new virus, and all left March Air Reserve Base successfully and happily returned along the way to their families and their communities. It’s important that people understand that these people being released from quarantine pose no health threat to the surrounding communities or the community that they will be returned to. I want to extend my thanks to them for their cooperation and patience during the quarantine and wish them well as they return to home, work and school. I also want to thank the men and women on March Air Reserve Base and their families for their graciousness while hosting these guests. I also want to say that CDC is working in close collaboration with Japanese health authorities to ensure precautions are being taken to prevent the spread of disease on the Diamond Princess cruise ship as well as making sure the American citizens on that cruise ship are safe. We recognize the continued uncertainty of the current situation. As always CDC public health experts strive to make the best recommendations based on the most up-to-date data. I would be happy to take questions now.

Operator: Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. In order to provide everyone the opportunity to ask questions, we ask that you limit your questions to one question and one follow up. If you have further questions, simply reinsert yourself back into the queue and your additional questions will be answered as time permits. To ask a question, please press star followed by one. Please ensure your phone is unmuted and record your name clearly when prompted. Again, that is star followed by 1 to ask a question. If you need to withdraw your request press star 2. One moment for the first question. Our first question is from Richard Harris with NPR. You may go ahead.

Richard Harris: Thanks very much. I have a point of clarification and then a question. And my clarification is based on your description of what happened with the test mix up, it sound as though somebody was misidentified as being positive and this person was misidentified as being negative, right, and then you realized that you had the identities wrong and you switched them. I want to make sure that I understand that. Let me ask my question also, which is a little more in-the-weeds, but I’m interested to know what the status is of being able to have a stereological test to identify people who have been exposed but haven’t shown signs of disease. Where is that right now?

Dr. Nancy Messonnier: The answer of the first question is thanks for asking me to clarify because no, that is not exactly right. Because of the problem with identification of the patient, the initial run didn’t include that. You know, as you can imagine, at CDC, there are a large number of specimens being processed, coming in and out, and it’s important that they be identified appropriately so that they’re prioritized. Because of the way that sample was identified, it wasn’t run in that first run. Therefore, it was when the second run was done that we found that it was positive, so it isn’t that somebody else was identified as positive. The sample wasn’t initially run. And the answer to your second question is clearly a stereological test is important in the United States we want to be able to look to see if people zero converted but especially hopefully we’ll be able to help the Chinese look. That test would be really helpful to be able to understand the spectrum of illness that is are there people who are either asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic that have stereological evidence of being exposed to pathogens. We have the beginnings of the stereological tests, because we now have patients in the United States, we’re able to collect additional specimens but we have to collect them over time so that we can have the appropriate timing of specimens to make sure that we understand what the immune response looks like. Once we complete the gathering of those specimens from the patients we’ll be able to pretty rapidly, I would say within a couple of weeks, three weeks, four weeks, be able to have a test available but right now, we’re still in the range of testing of gathering the appropriate specimens from the patients in the U.S. Next question.

Operator: thank you, the next question is from Ivan Couronne with “AFP,” you may go ahead.

Ivan Couronne: Thank you. Have any of the test kits already been actually shipped outside of the U.S.? And if so, which country?

Operator: One moment, please stand by.

Dr. Nancy Messonnier: I’m here. Thank you, I’m sorry. I didn’t get off mute, so excuse me. We have shipped the test kit internationally. I don’t have the specific list of countries in front of me. On last count and this is a couple of days ago, it was somewhere more than 30 countries. It’s important to recognize that this is part of a normal procedure that CDC uses for exactly this kind of reason, to get help make test kits available to other countries who may not have easy access to the same reagents and resources that CDC does, so it’s test kits and each of those countries that are receiving it will go through the same procedures that the recipients in the U.S. are, which is they would do an internal validation verification process before they’d be using those kits, so I also don’t know yet, and we can follow up on this whether any country that has received the kits has gone through that process yet, and whether countries have actually used it. I just don’t have that in front of me. Next question.

Operator: Thank you, the next question is from Hillary Bourke with “Business Insider,” you may go ahead.

Hillary Bourke: Yeah, thanks for taking my call. I had a question about the incubation period. I’m wondering what you think about the new paper that suggests it’s possible the virus might incubate for as long as 24 days in some cases. Have you seen any evidence to support that idea so far?

Dr. Nancy Messonnier: Yeah, so, it’s a really interesting report that has come out. As you can imagine, there is a lot of data coming out and a lot of scientists appropriately are rushing to make sure that any data that they have is in the public realm where all the rest of the scientific community can make use of it. I applaud everyone’s efforts. We have seen in some situations the rush to get data published hasn’t necessarily led to there being the usual level of oversight to make sure that each of the findings is quality controlled, frankly. So, we’re looking at that data closely, but we’re frankly looking at all the other data that’s available that looks at incubation periods. I would say the incubation period is obviously really important for us as we look to make sure that we’re releasing these people safely from quarantine, but the abundance of data, that is available still is consistent with our current stance, which is to use 14 days as the end of that incubation period. I also would say that this is a confusing situation because there may be patients that have mild or even asymptomatic disease that isn’t recognized and when you look at incubation period, you’re starting at the point where a patient is exposed and then counting the days until that patient mounts symptoms. But if there is widespread community spread, for example, it may be that some of those initial exposures aren’t detected and it makes it hard to be sure about the actual incubation period. Our CDC staff there actually are something like 50 separate modeling groups in the United States that are working with us on exactly these issues. It’s important that we work with all of these modelers because they have different symptoms than we do, but we’re working with all of the greatest minds in the country and globally try to pin down these facts as much as we can, and we still think that for today, for now, 14 days is the right interval to use. Next question.


Thank you both for the links. I watched the roundtable and try to listen to the CDC conference calls. I think there is a lot to be learned from listening to these officials. They are not bureaucratic idiots who have their heads buried up their asses, they are not missing the point, they know exactly what's going on. You have to listen carefully and you will hear them say exactly what we on this thread have been saying - that the Chinese aren't giving all the data, there is no stopping it from getting here, that people may be infectious before obvious symptoms, that there is a lot we don't know yet but there's no preventing what's coming. That there may be supply chain issues when the reserves of things they have run out. They get it. They just 'talk prettier' than we do ;) But it is confirmation to all of us who have been watching this for almost a month that we did get it right, and we were not doomers running around with our head on fire for the thrill of the doom. :shk:

HD
 

northern watch

TB Fanatic
Stranded tankers, full storage tanks: coronavirus leads to crude glut in China

Muyu Xu, Shu Zhang, Devika Krishna Kumar
February 13, 2020 / 2:13 PM / Updated an hour ago

BEIJING/SINGAPORE/NEW YORK (Reuters) - The coronavirus’s effect on energy markets is worsening, as the sharp fall in demand in China, the world’s largest importer of crude, is stranding oil cargoes off the country’s coast and prompting shippers to seek out other Asian destinations.


More than 1,360 people have died from the coronavirus in China, which has disrupted the world’s second largest economy and shaken energy markets, with international benchmark Brent crude oil LCOc1 down 15% since the beginning of the year.

Major international energy forecasters expect demand to fall in this quarter, the first drop in a decade, due to the outbreak
.

Chinese refineries have cut output by about 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) over just two weeks, causing crude stocks to pile up.

That has left numerous Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs), capable of holding more than 2 million barrels of crude each, unable to unload at China’s top crude import terminal of Qingdao, Refinitiv data shows.


Other cargoes are being diverted to South Korea, Malaysia, Singapore and other locales in China, while storage tanks in Shandong province - where Qingdao is located - are filling swiftly, sources said.

Oil storage tanks in China’s eastern Shandong province are nearing peaks seen last June as independent refiners slash processing rates, industry sources said.

“We are cutting runs, but we still have (crude) cargoes on the way,” said a Chinese refinery source, adding that the company was still exploring options as land storage is limited and it is costly to store on ships.

Shandong’s commercial and strategic crude oil stocks are currently at 171.5 million barrels, not far from their peak of 175 million barrels in early June last year, according to oil analytics firm Kpler.

“In theory, there is a lot of spare capacity to fill, but we have never seen this full utilization” of storage, said Kpler analyst Alexander Booth, adding that utilization rates are currently at 61% in Shandong, versus 63% at last year’s peak.


China’s overall crude storage is at 760 million barrels, versus a peak of 780 million barrels in early June last year, Kpler’s data shows.

(Graphic: China oil storage utilization rates - here)

Reuters Graphic
DEMURRAGE COSTS RISE, FREIGHT RATES PLUNGE
The lack of space in tanks is prompting traders to divert cargoes scheduled to arrive in February and March until China’s demand improves, multiple trade and shipping sources said.

When vessels cannot be unloaded, their charterers have to pay what is known as demurrage costs. Those fees have climbed to more than $100,000 per day for a cargo arriving next week compared with about $90,000 per day for those loaded 40 days ago, prompting some shippers to try to transfer crude to older tankers that cost less to operate, they said.


Freight rates meanwhile, have plunged to nearly half the levels they were at as the virus has hit demand and after the U.S. partially lifted sanctions on one unit of Chinese shipping firm COSCO.

Sources at Shandong ports said while storage levels are high, they are working with refineries to move oil out and make way for more cargoes that are expected to arrive in the coming weeks.

“The pace of moving crude out from tanks is slow. So if vessels are arriving at the same time, some of them might need to wait for 2-3 days,” said a source at Rizhao port in Shandong.

“We still have around 30% of space at our oil storage at this moment, which is already a lot better than the previous weeks, as truck drivers are gradually returning to work.”

Manufacturing activity was paused for the Lunar New Year last month when the virus struck, preventing workers from returning to their jobs.

(Graphic: Key supertanker shipping rates to China plunge as coronavirus spread hits oil demand - here)



Reuters Graphic
State-run ChemChina CNNCC.UL has diverted some crude oil cargoes which were supposed to arrive in China to floating storage near Malaysia, a source with direct knowledge of the matter told Reuters. ChemChina did not respond to an email seeking comment.

Oil traders have signed new crude oil storage leases in South Korea, the nearest storage option to Qingdao, this week, said a source familiar with the matter.

Two supertankers - Universal Winner and Aegean Dream - carrying Brazilian crude originally heading for China have been diverted to the Singapore straits, Refinitiv data showed.

Reporting by Xu Muyu in Beijing, Devika Krishna Kumar in New York, Jane Chung in Seoul and Florence Tan and Shu Zhang in Singapore; Editing by Marguerita Choy

 
Seriously China has totally f'ed the world over by incompetence or on purpose but in either case a lot of innocents are paying and will continue to pay the price.
There IS the possibility that the Chinese government, along with (obviously) the Chinese people, are ALSO victims of a deadly biological release(s) that was specifically intended to paint the Chinese government in a very bad light within the court of popular opinion.

The possibility exists that this is warfare of another kind, entirely - waged against humanity, by perps yet to be clearly identified.

In the end, I believe that the international internet crowd-sourcing method of sifting and discussing LOTS of contradictory data will ultimately identify the who, how, and why this event occurred.


intothegoodnight
 

Shooter

Veteran Member
If someone’s style or content bothers you just skim on by it or put them on ignore or however you do it with the new software. Not worth getting your knickers in a snit. If someones style bothers you that bad then maybe you need to step away and decompress for awhile? Let the mods or admins determine whether they feel it’s intentional or not. Few of us will ever meet each other in the flesh and as much as I like this board I value my own peace of mind too much to let any of you get under my skin and vice versa.

this is what I do, his style is a little anoying to me, but Ive been online about 22 years, you gotta learn that some people are just different than you are, I have skimmed over some of his stuff, but its up to me, if I want to read it or not, let him write as he wants, some facebook pages im on, if I put them on ignore, id be by myself.

and I really do think people are starting to get wound up way to tight, back during Y2k, people were concerned, but all during the build up to Dec31 1999. nothiing happened, with this flue. every day people are dying, this time it is not fake, it may not get as bad as we think it will, but it sure is real.

I had to back way off on what I was reading here, I was checking this thread every hour. reading every post. nowmabye every 3 or 4 hours i check, and just read what ever page is the latest,

try to relax, take a day off, its not on your block yet.( even with a national guard camp with 60 of them 12 miles from me) go outside, walk around or shovel some snow, play with your kids or grandkids, you have to let some of this loose or you wont be able to handle it when the time comes,

longest post ive ever made!
 

Heliobas Disciple

TB Fanatic
First, the new software is making it difficult for me to post. The reply box just opens out of nowhere and I have to erase the entire replies using the back space key
Anyway, I am calling my Valentine's Day prediction since the Chinese version of the virus reality had just collapsed on itself. The White House just redefined the entire virus context because they openly called the Chinese liars and frauds and there is no going back from that. I said you multiply by 10 or 100 and that is now out there and that is the "defining event" I was aiming at. The Global Pandemic is now game on.

I was thinking of your Feb 14 date last night when the new numbers came out. I think though for US cases you may have to move the date up by a month or more. I'd say April because Trump was told it all clears up in April. That to me says in April tshtf and Trump will be left with the egg on his face they are hoping for.

HD
 

Tristan

Has No Life - Lives on TB
if you say war often enough while the resources needed to feed your population dwindle at some point the mind will turn to actual war.


Just to be clear, I don't say 'War', they've been saying 'War'.

Also, it's easy to pivot from one enemy to another in the midst of a 'War'.

(I know you get it, raven. Just addn'l thoughts.)
 

Heliobas Disciple

TB Fanatic
I think the incubation or transmission period must be longer than most people realize. Think about this. The first (reported) Wuhan Chinese death was on January 10th, when they had about 50 or so confirmed cases. That is almost exactly where Hong Kong is right now. So it took a month for HK's population to reach the same kind of timeline as China. Using that very loose example, by the middle of March, one would expect Hong Kong's numbers to be representative of where China is today.

Given that the US and other countries are in much farther in geographic proximity than Hong Kong is to China, I would extend that timeline out a little for the rest of the world. With that, if the spread continues, we likely won't see exponential growth in North American numbers for at least another 6 weeks. Maybe longer.

Good for additional time to prep, not good at all for the economy or for the die-out of this virus. This thing could knock our planet on its knees for at least a year, maybe more. Especially if warm summer weather doesn't kill it.

Great post, reposting it to a new page.

HD
 

rondaben

Veteran Member
Seems I've read on this thread something indicating that the virus is also now hitting a number of receptors in other organs. Not just the lungs. What I do not recall was whether the receptors in these organs were Ace2 or something else.

ACE2 is in a number of other tissues like the heart, kidneys. in fact the kidney damage is pretty severe in many cases.
 

Heliobas Disciple

TB Fanatic
My opinion of something that can be done right now by the Administration and the CDC that will make a huge difference.

There should be an emergency law past or an executive order that if you have any cold/flu symptom you may not go to school or work. And that any school or business that penalizes a person for staying out sick will be fined X amount of dollars per day per person that they penalize.

~~~~~~~

America has a dangerous notion that we must plow on, we must show up to work even though we feel like shit and had a fever last night. We are tough, we are strong, we aren't going to let a little bug keep us down. And then you have schools that only allow x amount of days to miss a class or you fail. THIS HAS TO STOP. NOW.

And if it means a law has to be passed, pass it.

Yes I know there will be those who take advantage. Yay, I am calling sick, and can stay home.

So the next step is how to verify the claim.

We don't want people flooding to doctor's offices to get 'sick notes'. Some sort of on-line facetime type check in has to be set up where you hook up with a central video bank to be checked (there are doctors who do internet sessions now so it's possible) and have them put you on a data base. Your employer or school can check to see if you are on the list. This also helps the CDC keep track of those who are sick because they have that data bank at their fingertips. Can this be abused by the gov't (put on a list..etc). Yes, but let's get not too woo. The CDC isn't putting people in FEMA camps and I don't want my family going to work or to school with 'heroic' sick people who are showing up when they could be getting us all sick because we of some paraonia about fema camps.

HD
 

Matt

Veteran Member
sorry if a dupe ... too many pages


California lab says it discovered coronavirus vaccine in 3 hours
fair use Published 7 hours ago By Evie FordhamFOXBusiness

An American biotech company says it created a coronavirus vaccine three hours after getting access to the virus' genetic sequence in mid-January, and now scientists are racing to get the vaccine on the market in record time.
Inovio Pharmaceuticals is based in Pennsylvania, but scientists in its laboratory in San Diego made the discovery.

NEW CORONAVIRUS CASES SOAR, DEATHS RISE
"We were able to rapidly construct our vaccine in a matter of about three hours once we had the DNA sequence from the virus available because of the power of our DNA medicine platform," Dr. J. Joseph Kim, Inovio's president and CEO, told FOX Business. "Our goal is to start phase one human testing in the U.S. early this summer."

China has reported 254 new daily deaths and a spike in new daily virus cases of 15,152, after new methodology was applied in the hardest-hit province of Hubei as to how cases are categorized.

CORONAVIRUS TREATMENT MAY COME FROM AN UNEXPECTED PLACE
Inovio's stock jumped to $5.32 a share a few days after the company announced it was selected to work on a coronavirus vaccine.
The American company is partnering with Beijing Advaccine, a Chinese company, to work on the vaccine. Inovio also received $9 million to work on the vaccine from the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations, which is backed by billionaire Bill Gates.

TickerSecurityLastChangeChange %
INOINOVIO PHARMACEUTICALS3.98+0.64+19.16%
CORONAVIRUS LIKELY TO HIT US GROWTH


"We’ve done this many, many times before. The most relevant was building our vaccine against MERS virus, which is a coronavirus in the same family as COVID-19," Kim said.
Inovio took a vaccine for Zika virus from construct design to human testing in the U.S. in less than seven months, Kim said.
"We’re planning to beat our own record," he said. "Maybe we could do that in close to half that time."
Inovio is building a coalition for the "war" against COVID-19 that will require scaling up to thousands upon thousands of doses, Kim said.
Another U.S. company, Maryland-based Novavax, is aiming to make a coronavirus vaccine in as little as three months, although such vaccines can take years to develop. The company made an Ebola vaccine in 90 days.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Ha ha ha ....Bullshit! This is an obvious pump and dump stock scam...straight out of the movie Contagion..... go rent this movie and compare to this claim.....
 

20Gauge

TB Fanatic
That is actually quite noteworthy. They are a nuclear power and not totally as backwards as we may think so there is something in the data points causing them to take that step.

They are a weird country.... they have nukes, but they need to deliver them by burro.

Not conductive to conquering the world for sure.....
 
The siege on Stalingrad, comes to my mind when thinking about all of those Chinese cities... horrific.

Six more weeks to full.." oh my God, what do we do?" "Those paranoid preppers were right.". "They are hoarding things the rest of us need!". " I have a gun, and I will take what I need...". ETCETERA, ETCETERA, ETC.

Can you kill to protect what/who you love?

CAN YOU REALLY?

try to remember ALL of those people who have said.....

" Well, I'll just come to your house if anything happens..."

Not trying to be dramatic, not trying to express bravado...

But GOD please Yell in peoples ears...."DO NOT TRY TO FORCE YOURSELF UPON OTHERS WHO TOOK HEED OF MY WARNINGS AND MADE READY FOR CALAMITY. I HAVE ARMED THEM WITH TEETH AND MY PROTECTION."

I hope that God will forgive those who must harm others to protect themselves and their loved ones.

I also hope that GOD will forgive mankind as a whole, for all of the stupid things we do...

Gird your loins.
Years ago, I was discussing prepping with a Christian acquaintance who has five adult Christian children, along with several young grandchildren, within the context of having to defend one's own home from neighbors and friends wishing to take what you have, at the point of a gun.

They ALL live on a large acreage family compound, in a cluster of homes - one for each of them and their families - with Grandma/Great Grandma living amongst them, nearby on the compound.

I asked him, point-blank - could your girls, specifically, pull the trigger on an invading horde/individual wishing to steal what they had, or worse, if it became necessary? It took him a moment to think through the emotional and religious doctrinal ramifications of my question - he replied in a lowered voice - "I don't know . . . "

All of the five adult children were taught gun-everything 101, and each were given a firearm for their mid-teen birthday - so, they are familiar with firearms, have cared for and fired firearms, own firearms as adults, and intellectually understand and embrace the 2A and the U.S. Constitution/BOR.

I mentioned to him that as their patriarchal leader, he should have this specific discussion with all of his adult children.

Will be having lunch with him in the near future - time to revisit my question to him.

The ugly part of this world.


intothegoodnight
 
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