WAR Main Armenia Versus Azerbaijan War Thread - Open Hostilities Underway Now

danielboon

Has No Life - Lives on TB
No, if they fire a missile you won't even know it was coming, loitering munitions would kamikaze into you at high speeds and be almost like a missile strike itself. These fly at high altitudes and you wouldn't be able to hit them they are nothing like civilian drones that fly low and slow.
This!!
 

Bolerpuller

Contributing Member
I have to tell you.

I was just on #Breaking twitter, and I saw this video (apparently from Turkey, at least it looked like it). And it was of a box truck with a ramp up into the back doors. There looked like there were naked people inside, and a young woman crouched on the ramp screaming, "I don't want to." A person from the truck made her get up and took her into the truck with the rest of them. There were men in suits outside the truck and someone shut and locked the doors and took away the ramp. Then he took a big hose thingy and put it into some kind of small opening in the truck door, and the truck started up. Clouds started billowing out as people were screaming. So I quick went to save it and it suddenly vanished. Just letting you know.

:dvl2:
If you see this anywhere, anytime we need to capture it. This needs to be public. It's a game changer.
 

northern watch

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Azerbaijani forces close in on key town in Nagorno-Karabakh
The Azerbaijani army has closed in on a key town in the separatist territory of Nagorno-Karabakh following more than a month of intense fighting
By AVET DEMOURIAN Associated Press
29 October 2020, 14:38


Vovik Zakharian, 72, walks past his apartment building damaged by shelling by Azerbaijan's forces during a military conflict in Shushi, outside Stepanakert, the separatist region of Nagorno-Karabakh, Thursday, Oct. 29, 2020. Fighting over the separat

Image Icon
The Associated Press
Vovik Zakharian, 72, walks past his apartment building damaged by shelling by Azerbaijan's forces during a military conflict in Shushi, outside Stepanakert, the separatist region of Nagorno-Karabakh, Thursday, Oct. 29, 2020. Fighting over the separatist territory of Nagorno-Karabakh continued on Thursday, as the latest cease-fire agreement brokered by the U.S. failed to halt the flare-up of a decades-old conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan. (AP Photo)


YEREVAN, Armenia -- The Azerbaijani army closed in Thursday on a key town in Nagorno-Karabakh following more than a month of intense fighting, while top diplomats from Azerbaijan and Armenia prepared for more talks to try to end their long conflict over the separatist territory.

Nagorno-Karabakh’s separatist leader, Arayik Harutyunyan, said Azerbaijani troops had advanced to within 5 kilometers (about 3 miles) of the strategically placed town of Shushi
. He urged residents to mobilize all their resources to fend off the attack.

“The one who controls Shushi controls Nagorno-Karabakh,” Harutyunyan said in a video address from the town's cathedral, which was severely damaged by Azerbaijani shelling this month. “We must realize that and take part in defending Shushi. We must reverse the situation.”

Shushi is located about 5 kilometers south of Nagorno-Karabakh's regional capital, Stepanakert.


Nagorno-Karabakh lies within Azerbaijan but has been under the control of ethnic Armenian forces backed by Armenia since a war there ended in 1994.

The latest fighting began Sept. 27 and has involved heavy artillery, rockets and drones, in the largest escalation of hostilities over the separatist region in the quarter-century since the war ended. Hundreds and possibly thousands of people, have been killed in a little over a month.

Separatist authorities of Nagorno-Karabakh accused Azerbaijani forces Thursday of shelling Stepanakert, Shushi and Martakert with Smerch multiple rocket systems, a devastating Soviet-designed weapon intended to ravage wide areas with explosives and cluster munitions. Martakert was also raided by Azerbaijani aircraft, officials said.

Azerbaijan's Defense Ministry denied using aviation and accused Armenian forces of shelling the Terter, Goranboy and Barda regions of Azerbaijan. One civilian was killed in the Goranboy region, according to Hikmet Hajiyev, a foreign policy advisor to the Azerbaijan's president.

The ministry also reported downing two Armenian Su-25 warplanes, a claim Armenian officials rejected as “disinformation.”

According to Nagorno-Karabakh officials, 1,166 of their troops and 39 civilians have been killed in the clashes so far. Azerbaijani authorities haven’t disclosed their military losses, but say the fighting has killed at least 90 civilians and wounded 392.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said last week that, according to Moscow’s information, the death toll from the fighting was nearing 5,000, a significantly higher number than officially reported.

The hostilities have raged for a fifth week despite international calls for peace and three attempts at establishing a cease-fire. The latest U.S.-brokered truce frayed immediately after it took effect Monday, just like two previous cease-fires negotiated by Russia. The warring sides have repeatedly blamed each other for violations.

Russia, the United States and France have co-chaired the so-called Minsk Group set up by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe to mediate in the conflict, but they have failed to score any progress.

The Minsk Group’s co-chairs were set to meet with the foreign ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia in Geneva on Thursday, but the negotiations were pushed back until Friday and the prospects for a breakthrough appeared dim.

Armenian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Anna Naghdalyan said the change of date was “linked to the evolving situation and logistical issues,” adding that negotiating a lasting and verifiable cease-fire is a priority for Armenia.

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has repeatedly criticized the Minsk Group for failing to achieve any results in three decades and insisted that Azerbaijan has the right to reclaim its territory by force since international mediation has failed.

Speaking Thursday at an investor conference in Moscow, Putin said that negotiating a settlement for the decades-long conflict is extremely challenging.

“It's a tight knot, and there are no simple solutions,” Putin said. “Each side has its own truth.”

Russia, which has a military base in Armenia and a security agreement to protect its ally, has been involved in a delicate diplomatic act while trying to also maintain good ties with Azerbaijan and to avoid a showdown with Turkey.

Before the latest escalation of hostilities, Russia proposed a peace plan that would see Azerbaijan reclaim control of several of its regions outside Nagorno-Karabakh that Armenian forces captured during the war that ended in 1994. In exchange, Nagorno-Karabakh would be given security guarantees and a crippling blockade of Armenia by Turkey and Azerbaijan would be lifted.

Armenia has resisted the plan.

Residents of Nagorno-Karabakh, whose homes have been damaged by shelling, also appeared to have little faith in the international peace efforts.

“Neither France nor Russia are doing anything. We are left alone,” Vovik Zakharian, a resident of Shushi, a town that came under repeated shelling, said.

Zakharian, 72, inspected his apartment Thursday after it was damaged in morning strikes.

"We will fight till the end," he said. “We have to try our best.”

———

Associated Press writer Daria Litvinova and Vladimir Isachenkov in Moscow and Aida Sultanova in London contributed to this report.

 

northern watch

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Russia Watches as Karabakh War Reaches Decisive Turning Point
Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 17 Issue: 153

By: Pavel Felgenhauer
Jamestown.org
October 29, 2020 05:55 PM Age: 4 hours

For more than a month now, Armenian and Azerbaijani forces have been fighting for the disputed territory of Karabakh and surrounding Armenian-occupied districts. Thousands of soldiers on both sides have perished, and at least hundreds of civilians have been killed and injured. But there has still been no letup in the violence, despite efforts by the great powers to impose a ceasefire.

The Karabakh conflict was effectively frozen for over 26 years, since May 1994, when Moscow forcefully mediated a ceasefire agreement the first time. Over the ensuing decades, bloody skirmishes erupted periodically on the line of conflict (LoC) established in 1994. A particularly heavy Azerbaijani-Armenian flare-up erupted in April 2016, known as the “Four-Day War.” But overall., the LoC did not change much throughout the years.

The Minsk Group, a Karabakh conflict mediation body within the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), was created in 1992; but it has been essentially dormant over the past several years. Russia—a co-chair of the Minsk Group and a dominant power in the region—was active in trying to promote a solution to the Karabakh problem. In 2011, during a Russo-Azerbaijani-Armenian summit in Kazan, Russia, an agreement seemed close. Yet after Vladimir Putin returned to the Kremlin in 2012, Russian interest seemed to fade, as the country became distracted by other issues and the overall escalation of its confrontation with the West. Still Moscow continued to maintain a semblance of trying to preserve the Azerbaijani-Armenian balance of power. Russia sold large quantities of weapons to both sides—for cash to oil-rich Azerbaijan and on credit to poor Armenia, a member of the Moscow-dominated Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and Eurasian Economic Union. In 2016, Russia intervened diplomatically in the Four-Day War, effectively forcing both sides to accept a ceasefire. When the latest clashes erupted, on September 27, 2020, many foreign governments expected and hoped that Moscow would again act decisively to refreeze the Karabakh conflict—perhaps with some adjustments to the LoC.

In early October, as the fighting intensified, Putin called both Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, demanding they agree to an immediate ceasefire. In talks in Moscow chaired by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, the foreign ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan—Zohrab Mnatsakanyan and Jeyhun Bayramov, respectively—signed a ceasefire agreement on October 10. It collapsed almost immediately (see EDM, October 13).

Moscow tried to solidify the tentative ceasefire with a follow up mil-to-mil Azerbaijani-Armenian detailed agreement (Militarynews.ru, October 12). Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu became involved, with phone calls to his Azerbaijani and Armenian counterparts, and demanded they comply (Interfax, October 14). But those diplomatic efforts failed as well.

On October 16, six warships of Russia’s Caspian Flotilla, including three corvettes armed with nuclear-capable long-range Kalibr cruise missiles, engaged in war games backed up by Southern Military District Air Force jets. The participating units operated in the Caspian just north of the Absheron Peninsula, the location of the Azerbaijani port-city and capital Baku, the country’s biggest and most populous city. The Russian maneuvers began suddenly, only a couple of weeks after the Caspian Flotilla engaged in massive Kavkaz 2020 strategic war-games, in which Armenian soldiers took part but Azerbaijan refused. Kavkaz 2020 ended one day before Azerbaijani forces attacked the LoC in Karabakh on September 27, beginning the war. According to Admiral (ret.) Viktor Kravchenko, a former chief of the main naval staff, the mid-October snap Caspian Flotilla naval exercises just north of Baku were mean as a signal to Azerbaijan and its sponsor, Turkey, to stand down in Karabakh: “The [South Caucasus] region is within Russia’s sphere of interests, and we have sufficient forces, including Kalibr cruise missiles, to project force.” Officially, the snap Caspian Flotilla exercise “was not aimed at any foreign nation” (Militarynews.ru, October 16).

Nether Russian diplomatic pressure nor the military demonstration by the Caspian Flotilla sufficed: The fighting in Karabakh did not stop. Russia’s peace-making efforts were backed up by France and the United States—the two other co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group—also with little success. The foreign ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan traveled to Washington, met with Secretary of State Michael Pompeo and politely, once again, committed their governments to “implement and abide by the humanitarian ceasefire agreed in Moscow on October 10, reaffirmed in the statement issued from Paris on October 17, in accordance with the October 1, 2020, joint statement of US President Donald Trump, French President Emmanuel Macron, and Putin.” Trump promptly congratulated Aliyev and Pashinyan after declaring that a deal to end the Karabakh fighting “is easy” (Interfax, October 26). The fighting continued, with both sides blaming each other.

Three great nuclear powers working in apparent cohesion have so far utterly failed to stop the war. Azerbaijan is wining on the battlefield, and President Aliyev has stated he is ready to talk with Prime Minister Pashinyan, perhaps in Moscow, and is ready to agree to a ceasefire. But Armenia must first agree to a speedy withdrawal of its armed forces, relinquishing control of the so-called “security buffer zone” of Azerbaijani territory surrounding Karabakh since 1994, and eventually withdraw from Karabakh, too. Aliyev claims he is ready to allow ethnic-Armenian residents of Karabakh to continue to live there and enjoy some “cultural autonomy” under Azerbaijani rule; but Azerbaijani refugees must be allowed to return, and important sites like the ancient Karabakh capital—the mountain fortress city Shusha—must be given back (Interfax, October 28).

Azerbaijan’s Armed Forces have performed a slow but steady deep flanking maneuver in the valley of the Aras River, north of the Iranian border, defeating the opposing Armenian forces and repelling attempted Armenian counterattacks to cut off the advancing armor pincer (see EDM, October 19). Azerbaijani military units have bypassed the main Armenian defense fortifications and now may attack the heart of “Artsakh” (Armenian name for Karabakh) from the unfortified rear.

Azerbaijani armor is in the vicinity of Lachin, a strategic town on the main supply road from Armenia proper to Karabakh
. The Yerevan-backed separatist Karabakh leader, Arayik Harutyunyan, has announced that Azerbaijani forces are only five kilometers from Shusha and called for “everyone” to defend the city: “Who controls Shusha controls Karabakh” (Interfax, October 29). Armenian defenses and morale may be collapsing. The Karabakh cause could be lost; and with it may fall Pashinyan, seen in Moscow as a Western “stooge” (see EDM, October 8). If that was, indeed, one of the Kremlin’s key strategic objectives, Russian efforts to impose an overall ceasefire might suddenly become more effective once the Armenian prime minister is replaced.

 

jward

passin' thru
Armenia requests Russia's help after no new trucein Nagorno-Karabakh conflict

Issued on: 31/10/2020 - 09:01

Armenia's Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan (L) and Russia's President Vladimir Putin shake hands prior to a meeting of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council in Sochi on May 14, 2018.

Armenia's Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan (L) and Russia's President Vladimir Putin shake hands prior to a meeting of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council in Sochi on May 14, 2018. © Mikhail Klimentiev / SPUTNIK / AFP (arvhives)


Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has formally asked Russian President Vladimir Putin to begin "urgent" consultations on providing security amid a conflict with Azerbaijan, the foreign ministry said Saturday.


The announcement, which further raises the prospect of an escalation in the conflict, came after Armenia and Azerbaijan failed to agree a fresh ceasefire in Nagorno-Karabakh conflict during talks in Geneva on Friday.
Russia has a military base in Armenia and has a defence treaty with Yerevan.

"The prime minister of Armenia has asked the Russian president to begin urgent consultations with the aim of determining the kind and amount of aid which the Russian Federation can provide Armenia to ensure its security," the ministry said in a statement.
Azerbaijan and Armenia have been locked in a bitter conflict over Karabakh since Armenian separatists backed by Yerevan seized control of the mountainous province in a 1990s war that left 30,000 people dead.

The current clashes broke out on September 27 and fighting has persisted despite the repeated international attempts to secure a ceasefire.
Russia has previously said that its defence pact with Armenia does not extend to the breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh.

But Pashinyan in his letter to Putin said that hostilities were getting closer to Armenia's borders and reiterated that Azerbaijan's ally Turkey was backing Baku, according to the statement.
He requested Moscow's help, invoking the two countries' close ties and a 1997 treaty on friendship, cooperation and mutual assistance.

The warring sides have three times agreed to ceasefires during talks mediated by Russia, France and the United States but the truces have all quickly fallen apart.
More than 1,200 people from both sides have been reported dead since the fighting began, but the actual death toll is believed to be substantially higher.
 

danielboon

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Nagorno-Karabakh Says Military Death Toll Rises Despite Cease-Fire
November 02, 2020 14:59 GMT
Explosions in the mountains during fighting between Armenian and Azerbaijani forces outside Stepanakert, in the breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh.

Explosions in the mountains during fighting between Armenian and Azerbaijani forces outside Stepanakert, in the breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh.
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BAKU/YEREVAN -- Military authorities in the breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh say 11 more soldiers have died in fighting with Azerbaijani forces despite a U.S.-brokered cease-fire.
According to a list released by the military's press service on November 2, those killed included a deputy commander of Nagorno-Karabakh's Defense Army, Colonel Artur Sarkisian. The military death toll for the enclave is now at 1,177 since the clashes erupted on September 27, it added.
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev meanwhile said on Twitter on November 2 that his country's forces have taken control of another eight villages during the operation in Nagorno-Karabakh.
Separately, Azerbaijan’s Defense Ministry said on November 2 that several civilian settlements in the Tartar region inside Azerbaijan had been shelled by Armenian troops.
Nagorno-Karabakh is recognized as part of Azerbaijan, but the ethnic Armenians who make up most of the population, reject Azerbaijani rule. They have been governing their own affairs, with support from Armenia, since Azerbaijan's troops were pushed out of the region in a war that ended in a cease-fire in 1994.
Aliyev said on November 2 that Azerbaijan is ready to end hostilities if Armenia pledges to pull its forces out of Nagorno-Karabakh, a day after reiterating that Azerbaijani troops would "go to the end" if negotiations cannot achieve that goal.
Armenia has a security guarantee from Russia via the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian has repeatedly requested support from Moscow since the current flare-up started.
744CEF7C-95AE-4E17-8B5E-4A37806FC3AE_w650_r0_s.png

Russia's Foreign Ministry said on October 31 that it would provide "all assistance required" if the conflict spilled onto "the territory of Armenia" -- land that is outside the current conflict zone.
Pashinian on November 2 called for an international inquiry into the alleged participation of mercenaries from Syria and Libya on Azerbaijan's side in the conflict.
"This issue should be the subject of an international inquiry," Pashinian said on Facebook.
Both Azerbaijan and its ally, Turkey, have denied the involvement of mercenaries in the hostilities.
Many of both sides' claims and counterclaims around the fighting are difficult to confirm.
The latest fighting began September 27, escalating quickly to involve heavy artillery, rockets, and drones.
Russia has estimated as many as 5,000 deaths on both sides.
The United States, France, and Russia -- co chairs of the Minsk Group of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) -- have failed to find a route to a cease-fire or a longer-term resolution of the dispute.
U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on October 27 spoke separately by phone with Pashinian and Aliyev, urging both sides to pursue a diplomatic solution but a U.S.-mediated cease-fire that took effect on October 26 collapsed just hours later just like two previous truces mediated by Russia and France.
 

northern watch

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Nagorno-Karabakh: Russian helicopter shot down over Armenia

A Russian military helicopter has been downed over Armenia amid clashes between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh. Azerbaijan has admitted to shooting the aircraft down by accident.

DW November 9 2020


MI-24 helicopters (Grzegorz Polak)


A Russian military helicopter has been shot down over Armenia, with two crew members killed and one injured, Russia's Defense Ministry said on Monday.

In a statement, the ministry said the Mi-24 attack helicopter was downed by fire from a man-portable air-defense system close to the border with Azerbaijan.

Later, Azerbaijan's Foreign Ministry issued a statement admitting to having shot down the helicopter, saying it was an accident.

"The Azerbaijani side offers an apology to the Russian side in connection with this tragic incident," the statement said, adding that the attack was "not aimed against" Moscow. It offered to pay compensation.

The incident comes as Armenia, a Russian ally, and Azerbaijan continue to fight over the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh, which is within Azerbaijan's territory by law but has been under the control of local ethnic Armenian forces since 1994.

The Foreign Ministry statement from Azerbaijan said Azerbaijani forces had decided to open fire owing to a spike in fighting with the Armenian separatists.

Military allies

The crash reportedly occurred near the border with the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic, some 70 kilometers (43 miles) from the border to Nagorno-Karabakh.

Armenian authorities said the helicopter had crashed "in a gorge" near the village of Yeraskh.

Despite its military alliance with Armenia, Russia has said it will intervene in the conflict only if fighting reached Armenian soil. It maintains a permanent military presence there.

 

Squid

Veteran Member
Saw something about the Azi’s shooting down a Russian helicopter over Armenian territory killing 2 wounding 1.

If true probably no big deal...
Duh, its up above.

I am sure Turkey doesn’t care if they drag in Russia, or maybe they should they should.
 

jward

passin' thru
Protesters storm Armenian parliament after Armenia, Azerbaijan and Russia reach agreement to end Nagorno-Karabakh conflict



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0:51
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1 hour ago
Protesters storm Armenian parliament after Armenia, Azerbaijan and Russia reach agreement to end Nagorno-Karabakh conflict
On Tuesday, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan announced that Armenia, Azerbaijan and Russia had signed a deal to cease military fighting over the Nagorno-Karabakh region following weeks of renewed conflict. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev said the ceasefire was “essentially a capitulation” by Armenia, with Pashinyan calling the agreement "incredibly painful both for me and both for our people”. Protesters in Armenia held a demonstration in parliament shortly after the news broke.
Video via @AlArabiya_Eng
 

jward

passin' thru
Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士
@AlexGabuev
Senior Fellow and Chair of Russia in Asia-Pacific Program
@CarnegieEndow
based in Moscow. Senior Advisor
@ASG
. All views are my own. RT is not endorsement.

Москва, Россияcarnegie.ru/commentary/exp…Born 1985

THREAD
Today's agreement may turn another bloody page in the tragedy that is Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Setting emotions aside, here are couple of quick points on Russian calculus and handling of the issue - and some possible implications for standing in the Caucasus. Image

2/ For many Russian decision-makers, resumption of hostilities in NK was a matter of "when" rather than "if." The Kremlin took note of 2016 war, and the conclusion was that time is on Azerbaijan's side if Baku becomes determined to use force.

3/ This is why Russia had encouraged Yerevan to become more flexible, and has always been clear that the military alliance covers only internationally recognized Armenian territory, but not NK - a point reinstated very clearly by @MID_RF on 10/31 mid.ru/en/foreign_pol…

4/ By Moscow's assessment, @NikolPashinyan's way of handling the conflict and relations with Baku have been extremely risky since 2018, leaving Russia with increasingly fewer options to prevent a military scenario. As the war resumed, it had left Moscow with few good options.

5/ Beyond a very clear determination not to fight a war in NK to compensate for Yerevan's own missteps (as viewed by Moscow), Russia had its own reasons to maintain good ties with Azerbaijan, very eloquently explained recently by my colleague @baunov


Why Russia Is Biding Its Time on Nagorno-Karabakh Russia may have reasons to help its ally Armenia, but it has no reason at all to punish Azerbaijan, which has been an example of model behavior among the former Soviet states, as far as Russia is conc… Why Russia Is Biding Its Time on Nagorno-Karabakh

6/ And then there is a very complicated relationship with Turkey that matters much for Moscow's broader game in the Middle East and Northern Africa. For more context tune in to my recent conversation with dear colleagues @Tom_deWaal & @sinanulgen1


Tipping Point in the Karabakh Crisis: What Next? With no end in sight to the renewed fighting in and around Nagorno-Karabakh, this episode of the Carnegie Moscow Center English-language podcast focuses on the roles of Russia and Turkey in the confli… Tipping Point in the Karabakh Crisis: What Next?

7/ Today's deal announced by Putin, @presidentaz & @NikolPashinyanin many ways addresses core Russian interests in the conflict, and is perhaps the best outcome (at least in short term) Moscow could get out of the situation.


Заявление Президента Азербайджанской Республики, Премьер-министра Республики Армения и Президента Российской Федерации Заявление Президента Азербайджанской Республики, Премьер-министра Республики Армения и Президента Российской Федерации

8/ The deal is brokered and signed by Russia and the two conflicting powers, showing Moscow's centrality to diplomatic resolution (with Turkey in the back, but with no formal role, which is an important nuance). And no role for , which is important in the Kremlin's worldview.

9/ Russia managed to prevent full defeat of NK (and the likely additional amount of human suffering - on top of the tragedy that these 6 weeks have brought) at a time, when the situation on the battleground looked increasingly advantageous for after capture of Shusha.

10/ Russia has put its 2000 peacekeepers in NK - something that Moscow wanted to do back in 1994, but was unable to. There will be no Turkish armed peacekeepers, which is very important for Moscow.

11/ Presence of the peacekeepers (in Moscow's view) is a guarantee that will not be tempted to resume the war and capture all of NK territory. The Kremlin is sure that @presidentaz took note of what happened after shelling of peacekeepers in 2008 in South Ossetia.

12/ Ties with Baku have not been damaged, although much stronger influence in Azerbaijan and broader region became very visible. However, growth of Ankara's presence in the region was in the making for years, and Moscow sees it as an inevitable downside of the new order.

13/ What is very important for the Kremlin is diminished role of the West, which was mainly self-inflicetd by lack of focus and regular process under @realDonaldTrump, as @pstronskiexplains


The Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict Is a Bad Omen With the United States shrugging off its erstwhile role as the world’s policeman, can anyone stop the fierce fighting now raging between Armenia and Azerbaijan? The Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict Is a Bad Omen

14/ Finally, there is Armenia. The sense of Russian betrayal and level of emotions is explainable and expected by Moscow (and it might weaken or end Pashinyan's rule). However, has few realistic alternative options as banking its security on Russia.

15/ As always, my @CarnegieRussia colleague @DmitriTreninbrilliantly sums it up - there is a new regional order in the making, with Russia still indispensable, growth of Turkish role, and diminishing relevance of the West.

16/ Moscow is satisfied with this outcome, given the options that it has. And I haven't met any senior Russian official who believes that Moscow will ever be able to be in full control in the South Caucasus with no other powers in the mix. It's more about balance than dominance.

17/ The whole situation tells us something new about the way Moscow exercises foreign policy, including in the post-Soviet space. There is a better calibration of tools to address regional crisis, and somewhat more relaxed and realistic view on Russian aims. END
 

Starrkopf

Veteran Member
Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士
@AlexGabuev
Senior Fellow and Chair of Russia in Asia-Pacific Program
@CarnegieEndow
based in Moscow. Senior Advisor
@ASG
. All views are my own. RT is not endorsement.

Москва, Россияcarnegie.ru/commentary/exp…Born 1985

THREAD
Today's agreement may turn another bloody page in the tragedy that is Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Setting emotions aside, here are couple of quick points on Russian calculus and handling of the issue - and some possible implications for standing in the Caucasus. Image

2/ For many Russian decision-makers, resumption of hostilities in NK was a matter of "when" rather than "if." The Kremlin took note of 2016 war, and the conclusion was that time is on Azerbaijan's side if Baku becomes determined to use force.

3/ This is why Russia had encouraged Yerevan to become more flexible, and has always been clear that the military alliance covers only internationally recognized Armenian territory, but not NK - a point reinstated very clearly by @MID_RF on 10/31 mid.ru/en/foreign_pol…

4/ By Moscow's assessment, @NikolPashinyan's way of handling the conflict and relations with Baku have been extremely risky since 2018, leaving Russia with increasingly fewer options to prevent a military scenario. As the war resumed, it had left Moscow with few good options.

5/ Beyond a very clear determination not to fight a war in NK to compensate for Yerevan's own missteps (as viewed by Moscow), Russia had its own reasons to maintain good ties with Azerbaijan, very eloquently explained recently by my colleague @baunov


Why Russia Is Biding Its Time on Nagorno-Karabakh Russia may have reasons to help its ally Armenia, but it has no reason at all to punish Azerbaijan, which has been an example of model behavior among the former Soviet states, as far as Russia is conc… Why Russia Is Biding Its Time on Nagorno-Karabakh

6/ And then there is a very complicated relationship with Turkey that matters much for Moscow's broader game in the Middle East and Northern Africa. For more context tune in to my recent conversation with dear colleagues @Tom_deWaal & @sinanulgen1


Tipping Point in the Karabakh Crisis: What Next? With no end in sight to the renewed fighting in and around Nagorno-Karabakh, this episode of the Carnegie Moscow Center English-language podcast focuses on the roles of Russia and Turkey in the confli… Tipping Point in the Karabakh Crisis: What Next?

7/ Today's deal announced by Putin, @presidentaz & @NikolPashinyanin many ways addresses core Russian interests in the conflict, and is perhaps the best outcome (at least in short term) Moscow could get out of the situation.


Заявление Президента Азербайджанской Республики, Премьер-министра Республики Армения и Президента Российской Федерации Заявление Президента Азербайджанской Республики, Премьер-министра Республики Армения и Президента Российской Федерации

8/ The deal is brokered and signed by Russia and the two conflicting powers, showing Moscow's centrality to diplomatic resolution (with Turkey in the back, but with no formal role, which is an important nuance). And no role for , which is important in the Kremlin's worldview.

9/ Russia managed to prevent full defeat of NK (and the likely additional amount of human suffering - on top of the tragedy that these 6 weeks have brought) at a time, when the situation on the battleground looked increasingly advantageous for after capture of Shusha.

10/ Russia has put its 2000 peacekeepers in NK - something that Moscow wanted to do back in 1994, but was unable to. There will be no Turkish armed peacekeepers, which is very important for Moscow.

11/ Presence of the peacekeepers (in Moscow's view) is a guarantee that will not be tempted to resume the war and capture all of NK territory. The Kremlin is sure that @presidentaz took note of what happened after shelling of peacekeepers in 2008 in South Ossetia.

12/ Ties with Baku have not been damaged, although much stronger influence in Azerbaijan and broader region became very visible. However, growth of Ankara's presence in the region was in the making for years, and Moscow sees it as an inevitable downside of the new order.

13/ What is very important for the Kremlin is diminished role of the West, which was mainly self-inflicetd by lack of focus and regular process under @realDonaldTrump, as @pstronskiexplains


The Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict Is a Bad Omen With the United States shrugging off its erstwhile role as the world’s policeman, can anyone stop the fierce fighting now raging between Armenia and Azerbaijan? The Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict Is a Bad Omen

14/ Finally, there is Armenia. The sense of Russian betrayal and level of emotions is explainable and expected by Moscow (and it might weaken or end Pashinyan's rule). However, has few realistic alternative options as banking its security on Russia.

15/ As always, my @CarnegieRussia colleague @DmitriTreninbrilliantly sums it up - there is a new regional order in the making, with Russia still indispensable, growth of Turkish role, and diminishing relevance of the West.


16/ Moscow is satisfied with this outcome, given the options that it has. And I haven't met any senior Russian official who believes that Moscow will ever be able to be in full control in the South Caucasus with no other powers in the mix. It's more about balance than dominance.

17/ The whole situation tells us something new about the way Moscow exercises foreign policy, including in the post-Soviet space. There is a better calibration of tools to address regional crisis, and somewhat more relaxed and realistic view on Russian aims. END

I really have a problem with point 13. This has absolutely nothing to do with the united states, we have no obligation to be the "world's policeman" armenia and azerbaijan both have a long history with russia and that whole region likewise also (excepting turkey) So far I think Russia has this handled pretty well, at least for the moment.
 

jward

passin' thru
I read it just to note that the position of the world power must be a part of the analysis ...
but I'm still on the first gallon of caffeine. :shr:
 
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