ECON M1 Money Stock Going Vertical

Gadsden

Gadsden

Contributing Member
Here is data from St Louis Fed. It was updated a few days ago. Looks like in about three weeks M1, which is liquid money, increased by about 20%. The data is as of April 13, so no doubt that number is higher now. It is by far the fastest, biggest jump ever recorded if you zoom out to multiple years. With more monetization and stimulus on the way, the money supply is going to get even bigger BEFORE people go back to work and with food supply shortages about to hit. This really is a perfect storm. The key threshold will be if .gov monetizes debt and mails stimulus checks in response to inflation after it breaks out. That response will only cause more inflation and the need for more monetization and stimulus, etc. Once that cycle starts, nothing will stop it except gold going to the stratosphere and someone finally demanding payment in bullion. This coronavirus disaster may have barely gotten started.
 
D

dvo

Veteran Member
We had inflation, and for many years. Inflation is ruinous at even modest levels. As a teen, I remember having to remark grocery prices every week to keep up with increasing price levels to pay for the Great Society and Vietnam War. Seems like we may be headed there again.
 
bw

bw

Fringe Ranger
The dems aren't saying a thing about this now. Soon as something blows up it will be Trump's fault and the dems were warning us all along.
 
Gadsden

Gadsden

Contributing Member
Gadsden said:
View attachment 194241
Click to expand...
Gadsden said:
Here is data from St Louis Fed. It was updated a few days ago. Looks like in about three weeks M1, which is liquid money, increased by about 20%. The data is as of April 13, so no doubt that number is higher now. It is by far the fastest, biggest jump ever recorded if you zoom out to multiple years. With more monetization and stimulus on the way, the money supply is going to get even bigger BEFORE people go back to work and with food supply shortages about to hit. This really is a perfect storm. The key threshold will be if .gov monetizes debt and mails stimulus checks in response to inflation after it breaks out. That response will only cause more inflation and the need for more monetization and stimulus, etc. Once that cycle starts, nothing will stop it except gold going to the stratosphere and someone finally demanding payment in bullion. This coronavirus disaster may have barely gotten started.
Click to expand...
Hfcomms said:
From the first of the year until now.

And another picture of the past year:

View attachment 194239
Click to expand...

E703F30A-8351-4412-8D8E-984F567EC344.png
 
D

Dozdoats

On TB every waking moment
This is what MMT looks like when it is put into practice. There is no practical limit as to how much can be issued. There is no practical limit to inflation either.

We are well and truly screwed. Got real money?
 
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Groucho

Groucho

Has No Life - Lives on TB
The inflation of the late 70's/80's was tough. At some point it hit around 20%. We "got out of it" by suffering through a sharp recession and Ronald Reagan brought us out of the malaise we, as a country were in. We also could still produce out way out of the mess since we still had factories and mills running here.
This time, we aren't even making our own antibiotics here. This inflation that's roaring at us hasn't hit yet, but it isn't many weeks away. Think of this as well; the inflation will increase at an increasing rate. It will most likely do so without any more goosing of the money supply.

What we did then was just let our current debt be and pay it off with cheaper and cheaper dollars. If you can now, time to buy things you will need in the next several years. Stock up on food. As Coalcracker said, your 1.50 can of soup will look like a great thing in a year or so. Buy several. Chicken noodle soup is going for 3.98 for a four pack. If/when I get the .gov "free" money, my shelves will be bending with various soups in cans. That's food that keeps for years and years. That and it doesn't stop you up like MRE's. Those things are only good for an end of the world scenario and even then, it's questionable if you're beyond 35.

Further, we are possibly heading for hyper inflation where by our currency has no value what so ever. Time to prep up, top off, go gray and please, please, please - stay away from crowds. This is sizing up to be a years long crash and maybe a decade or more.

I'm hoping (and it's only hope) that we have a 2-3 month hiatus before it blows up. If that happens, I'm going on a buying binge that will make everybody's head spin. Things are starting to crash. Whole states are looking at defaulting on their pension plans. The .gov may try to bail them out, but it will only exacerbate the downward economic spiral. Then people get wildly angry and the sporty times begin.
 
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alchemike

alchemike

Veteran Member
Looks a lot like the unemployment curve...
It is so f*cked.

Things that will be increasingly more valuable:
Land, water, food, friends, medicine, any addictive products, sound money (ie. gold silver bitcoin) and lead.

This is runaway train on a dark stormy night stuff folks...we've been talking about it here on tb2k for over 20 years.
Now it is upon us.

o)<

mike
 
P

parsonswife

Veteran Member
Gadsden said:
Here is data from St Louis Fed. It was updated a few days ago. Looks like in about three weeks M1, which is liquid money, increased by about 20%. The data is as of April 13, so no doubt that number is higher now. It is by far the fastest, biggest jump ever recorded if you zoom out to multiple years. With more monetization and stimulus on the way, the money supply is going to get even bigger BEFORE people go back to work and with food supply shortages about to hit. This really is a perfect storm. The key threshold will be if .gov monetizes debt and mails stimulus checks in response to inflation after it breaks out. That response will only cause more inflation and the need for more monetization and stimulus, etc. Once that cycle starts, nothing will stop it except gold going to the stratosphere and someone finally demanding payment in bullion. This coronavirus disaster may have barely gotten started.
Click to expand...

My Dad was an economist. Back in the 70's he told me to watch the M1 supply. :hof::hof::hof::hof::hof::hof::hof:
 
end game

end game

Veteran Member
Gadsden said:
Here is data from St Louis Fed. It was updated a few days ago. Looks like in about three weeks M1, which is liquid money, increased by about 20%. The data is as of April 13, so no doubt that number is higher now. It is by far the fastest, biggest jump ever recorded if you zoom out to multiple years. With more monetization and stimulus on the way, the money supply is going to get even bigger BEFORE people go back to work and with food supply shortages about to hit. This really is a perfect storm. The key threshold will be if .gov monetizes debt and mails stimulus checks in response to inflation after it breaks out. That response will only cause more inflation and the need for more monetization and stimulus, etc. Once that cycle starts, nothing will stop it except gold going to the stratosphere and someone finally demanding payment in bullion. This coronavirus disaster may have barely gotten started.
Click to expand...
NY FED has been buying MBS for some time, here is the data just from last week and today:

Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities Operations - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK

www.newyorkfed.org www.newyorkfed.org
 
Doomer Doug

Doomer Doug

TB Fanatic
Gadsden said:
Here is data from St Louis Fed. It was updated a few days ago. Looks like in about three weeks M1, which is liquid money, increased by about 20%. The data is as of April 13, so no doubt that number is higher now. It is by far the fastest, biggest jump ever recorded if you zoom out to multiple years. With more monetization and stimulus on the way, the money supply is going to get even bigger BEFORE people go back to work and with food supply shortages about to hit. This really is a perfect storm. The key threshold will be if .gov monetizes debt and mails stimulus checks in response to inflation after it breaks out. That response will only cause more inflation and the need for more monetization and stimulus, etc. Once that cycle starts, nothing will stop it except gold going to the stratosphere and someone finally demanding payment in bullion. This coronavirus disaster may have barely gotten started.
Click to expand...
Hyperbinflation and weimar republic here we vome. BUY GOLD AND SILVER AND AMMO LOTS OF AMMO.:hof:
 
Doomer Doug

Doomer Doug

TB Fanatic
Mussolini, he ended up swinging from a beam, said that fascism was when business and government merged together. The Federal Reserve will soon own everything. SIEG HEIL.
 
Gitche Gumee Kid

Gitche Gumee Kid

Veteran Member
Gold bugs have been predicting a steady rise in the spot price. Especially with the way "they" have been loading up the "helicopters" over the last week or two. It's perplexing how the very opposite is occurring.

Those crooks ,over at the Comex ,probably have access to some of that "stimulus money" to keep the paper game from getting away from them. That's my opinion .

GGK :ld:
 
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jazzy

jazzy

Advocate Discernment
thank you for posting this. more parts of the biigger picture we need to put together to help us understadn what is coming at us like a freight train.
 
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V

vestige

Deceased
jazzy said:
thank you for posting this. more parts of the biigger picture we need to put together to help us understadnw hat is coming at us like a freight train.
Click to expand...
Accurate description... like a freight train.

Trouble is... most folks... especially young folks... don't have a clue what that means.

Hunker down.
 
D

dvo

Veteran Member
bassgirl said:
can you explain what this means for us non market, non money savvy people?
Click to expand...

More and more money chasing the same or fewer amounts of goods available to purchase. The result is a rapid increase in the price of goods to purchase. Inflation is a stealthy way of stealing from everyone. The money supply should only increase at the rate of productivity improvement in an economy. If the banksters and politicians increase the money supply at a faster rate, you get inflation.
 
20Gauge

20Gauge

TB Fanatic
Groucho said:
The inflation of the late 70's/80's was tough. At some point it hit around 20%. We "got out of it" by suffering through a sharp recession and Ronald Reagan brought us out of the malaise we, as a country were in. We also could still produce out way out of the mess since we still had factories and mills running here.
This time, we aren't even making our own antibiotics here. This inflation that's roaring at us hasn't hit yet, but it isn't many weeks away. Think of this as well; the inflation will increase at an increasing rate. It will most likely do so without any more goosing of the money supply.

What we did then was just let our current debt be and pay it off with cheaper and cheaper dollars. If you can now, time to buy things you will need in the next several years. Stock up on food. As Coalcracker said, your 1.50 can of soup will look like a great thing in a year or so. Buy several. Chicken noodle soup is going for 3.98 for a four pack. If/when I get the .gov "free" money, my shelves will be bending with various soups in cans. That's food that keeps for years and years. That and it doesn't stop you up like MRE's. Those things are only good for an end of the world scenario and even then, it's questionable if you're beyond 35.

Further, we are possibly heading for hyper inflation where by our currency has no value what so ever. Time to prep up, top off, go gray and please, please, please - stay away from crowds. This is sizing up to be a years long crash and maybe a decade or more.

I'm hoping (and it's only hope) that we have a 2-3 month hiatus before it blows up. If that happens, I'm going on a buying binge that will make everybody's head spin. Things are starting to crash. Whole states are looking at defaulting on their pension plans. The .gov may try to bail them out, but it will only exacerbate the downward economic spiral. Then people get wildly angry and the sporty times begin.
Click to expand...
I agree all things are horrible and getting worse. The one thing that has changed my mind is the unabashed willingness of government to print cash. I had thought differently on the matter. Debts, sure. Steady increases that eventually will result in hyperinflation. Sure

I never expected them to print as much as they have this soon.

Since they are so willing to do so, I no longer expect the states to go bankrupt. I expect they will get "grants" for one reason or another to shore things up. The money will not stop flowing from this point. The dyke has been breached.
 
Sacajawea

Sacajawea

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Groucho, I have long expected this to happen but hoped Trump would knock some fiscal responsibility into the heads of Congress (hahahahahahaha - boy was that a false hope). Inflation did tic up after the '08 crap (that didn't really get fixed)... but it's only been in the past year that I've noticed how QUICKLY the rate of price increases have jumped; it's every couple months now. Soon, when you go to the store next week - prices will higher & then higher again the week after.

My plan is pretty close to yours.
 
20Gauge

20Gauge

TB Fanatic
Sacajawea said:
Groucho, I have long expected this to happen but hoped Trump would knock some fiscal responsibility into the heads of Congress (hahahahahahaha - boy was that a false hope). Inflation did tic up after the '08 crap (that didn't really get fixed)... but it's only been in the past year that I've noticed how QUICKLY the rate of price increases have jumped; it's every couple months now. Soon, when you go to the store next week - prices will higher & then higher again the week after.

My plan is pretty close to yours.
Click to expand...
Sadly I have noticed the price increases also. Even though I do not do much shopping.
 
Gadsden

Gadsden

Contributing Member
I wonder if this isn't all happening to force the world back to a gold standard? Trump appointed gold bugs to the FED board of governors and has taken over monetizing operations through Treasury. They are monetizing everything and quickly. As distasteful as it might be, the only way to get out of the ginormous global debt is for the nation states to turn that debt into cash, drive up prices, and force gold up into the stratosphere. At some point, someone like the Saudis will demand payment in bullion, and then we would have the option of a gold backed dollar. This would be tantamount to a debt jubilee if the Federal Reserve Notes (crap dollars) floated against the Gold Dollars (real dollars). Minimum wage for a month could pay off a mortgage. The worst case scenario is for inflation not to happen and we go into Japanization, that is continuing to work and pay notes on our debt rather than buy and make things. I know hyperinflation is typically thought of as a terrible scenario, but it has its positives. It is usually a switch from a crap currency to a real currency and a purging of debt acquired in the crap currency. It's just really, really, really unpleasant during the transition.
 
Groucho

Groucho

Has No Life - Lives on TB
FWIW, Groucho's "plan" if he gets the .gov money is to put 10% into the LOCAL food bank for folks. The rest is going towards final preps. This has been a good "shake down cruise" for us. I think we'll be off to the races sooner than any of us wants and the times are going to be difficult if not occasionally dangerous.

When I heard this on the morning news, I was shaken. There's more than a few people who were out of work through no fault of their own and they, along with many others were pay check to pay check. That was 4-6 weeks ago. Due to .gov SNAFU's they haven't yet gotten an unemployment check and they have yet to see the $1,200.00 gimmie check. They are still in their places by the grace of the landlord or the bank, but that won't last much longer. Cars the same. Talk about stress. Never forget that the most dangerous person in the world is the one with nothing to lose. If the kids are hungry, it get's much worse.

No, I'm not blaming anybody except the Chinese and our politicians.
 
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jed turtle

jed turtle

a brother in the Lord
This is how Pharoah, who ruled Egypt with Joseph as governor, came into possession of every man woman and child and all of their possessions: when the famine started, that Joseph had revealed was coming when he interpreted Pharaoh’s dream , all Egypt had to come to Pharaoh and exchange whatever they owned for food that had been stored up in the previous 7 fat years.

this is how the central banks intend to take
possession of the world for their masters.

the paper dollars will soon become meaningless.

old prophecies will soon become meaningful:
”a denarius
(a silver coin used customarily to pay a laborer for a full day’s wage)
for a loaf of bread”

”come out of her my people lest you share in her [Babylon the Great’s] plagues”.

seeds were the original currency. Plant gardens. Grow your own food. Like your life depended on it.
 
S

Sub-Zero

Veteran Member
Groucho said:
The inflation of the late 70's/80's was tough. At some point it hit around 20%. We "got out of it" by suffering through a sharp recession and Ronald Reagan brought us out of the malaise we, as a country were in. We also could still produce out way out of the mess since we still had factories and mills running here.
This time, we aren't even making our own antibiotics here. This inflation that's roaring at us hasn't hit yet, but it isn't many weeks away. Think of this as well; the inflation will increase at an increasing rate. It will most likely do so without any more goosing of the money supply.

What we did then was just let our current debt be and pay it off with cheaper and cheaper dollars. If you can now, time to buy things you will need in the next several years. Stock up on food. As Coalcracker said, your 1.50 can of soup will look like a great thing in a year or so. Buy several. Chicken noodle soup is going for 3.98 for a four pack. If/when I get the .gov "free" money, my shelves will be bending with various soups in cans. That's food that keeps for years and years. That and it doesn't stop you up like MRE's. Those things are only good for an end of the world scenario and even then, it's questionable if you're beyond 35.

Further, we are possibly heading for hyper inflation where by our currency has no value what so ever. Time to prep up, top off, go gray and please, please, please - stay away from crowds. This is sizing up to be a years long crash and maybe a decade or more.

I'm hoping (and it's only hope) that we have a 2-3 month hiatus before it blows up. If that happens, I'm going on a buying binge that will make everybody's head spin. Things are starting to crash. Whole states are looking at defaulting on their pension plans. The .gov may try to bail them out, but it will only exacerbate the downward economic spiral. Then people get wildly angry and the sporty times begin.
Click to expand...
Some good advice here.

Stock up on certain food items that you eat (I don't eat canned soup, but beef and chicken stock, yes). I bought a bunch of whole pork loins (my freezer is almost full) and 20 lbs of mini corn dogs at $7.00 per pound bag (about 100 per bag).

You should learn how to make the basics like bread, tortillas, and lefse (I picked a lefse grill on the cheap yesterday for the last two). Also, begin to source local meat and produce as they may be open to barter with non-money or heritage silver.

Remember, first by inflation, and then by deflation. We will see both.

Begin talking with your children about multigenerational homes and the advantages of them (i.e., how they worked prior to WWII) as well as pooling resources; It may come to that again.
 
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