CORONA Just a friendly PSA about the virus

The Mountain

Here since the beginning
_______________
The Wuhan virus is producing numbers more or less similar to the seasonal flu, in terms of hospitalizations and illnesses. It's actually producing smaller numbers for younger people (kids and young adults). Note that I am excluding NY from this, because the virus was so badly managed there, and even in NY the VAST majority of deaths were in nursing homes and/or the result of comorbidity.

Now, the key thing to remember, and it's something that rarely gets mentioned: the numbers are about the same for the Wuhan virus and the flu, but there's a vaccine for the flu and none for Wuhan. So in reality the seasonal influenza is a far more dangerous virus overall. Imagine how much worse every flu season would be if we didn't have a seasonal flu vaccination? Yes, I know some folks (including me) don't usually get the vaccine, because reasons, but most people do, and it likely does make a dent in the potential number of flu cases.

Here's an article with the numbers that support this:


Edited for clarity
 
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SmithJ

Veteran Member
Or if you’re discussing hypothetical comparisons you could just as easily say:

“Now, the key thing to remember, and it's something that rarely gets mentioned: the numbers are about the same for the Wuhan virus and the flu, but there's a vaccine for the flu and none for Wuhan. So in reality the seasonal influenza is a far more dangerous virus overall. Imagine how much worse every flu season would be if we didn't have a seasonal flu vaccination? “

- but we decided to combat the ccp virus by enacting the largest shutdown in American history, we closed school, businesses, colleges, parks across the entire country and still double the number of deaths that occur from a flu season occurred from the ccp virus in the equivalent of half a flu season.

Imagine how much worse it would have been if we hadn’t.
 

raven

TB Fanatic
Spanish Flu was 100 years ago.

Flu vaccine was developed 70 years ago

Every year the flu vaccine contains four variants determined by the best estimate of the CDC.

It has been scientifically researched and continuously developed for "seventy years" and still, every year, they guess wrong.

Millions of people get the flu vaccine every year. Each year they produce 165 million doses of vaccine for a population of 320 million. They never produce enough vaccine for the entire population.

Every year 30-60 thousand people die from the flu in the US
Every year 2.5 million people die from all causes in the US.

The US has yet to develop herd immunity for the flu.

It is very reasonable to expect that a corona vaccine will be developed and that it will be effective.
Suggest you wait for "the cure" - it is definitely going to be soon. {sarcasmOff/}
 

SmithJ

Veteran Member
Smith, did you intend for that strikeout text to be there?

Yes, I was trying to use what you showed me to add cool effects to my post. Awesome huh, or maybe not... maybe it doesn’t come off the way I intended.

like instead of what his hypothetical was, someone else could just as easily say:
 

The Mountain

Here since the beginning
_______________
Or if you’re discussing hypothetical comparisons you could just as easily say:

“Now, the key thing to remember, and it's something that rarely gets mentioned: the numbers are about the same for the Wuhan virus and the flu, but there's a vaccine for the flu and none for Wuhan. So in reality the seasonal influenza is a far more dangerous virus overall. Imagine how much worse every flu season would be if we didn't have a seasonal flu vaccination? “

- but we decided to combat the ccp virus by enacting the largest shutdown in American history, we closed school, businesses, colleges, parks across the entire country and still double the number of deaths that occur from a flu season occurred from the ccp virus in the equivalent of half a flu season.

Imagine how much worse it would have been if we hadn’t.

well-yes-but-.jpg


A typical flu season is about 4 months, and we're now 5 months into this. And if you've been following the information here on the board, the actual number of deaths directly attributed to the Wuhan virus is about half the number the media have been throwing around. Half of those Wuhan deaths are nursing home deaths in NY, and a large fraction of the total deaths in the rest of the country are the very elderly as well.

It seems I'm going to have to copy-paste the whole thing after all, because no one remembers how footnotes work anymore. Note item 4 in the list in particular for refutation of your claim about it being twice as bad as a flu season:

James Madison once said, “A popular Government, without popular information, or the means of acquiring it, is but a Prologue to a Farce or a Tragedy; or, perhaps both.” The coronavirus fascists have succeeded in cementing their illogical, immoral, and illegal policies through the prism of false information about the timing of the virus, the specific nature and severity of the overall fatality rate, the number of actual deaths, and the utility (or perhaps harm) of lockdown policies in actually mitigating deaths – all the while obfuscating the much higher collateral deaths and damage caused by the lockdown itself.


Every day we learn new information demonstrating the lies driving lockdown. Here are some of the most important ones from over the weekend.


1) The shocking inflation of COVID-19 death numbers: From day one, we were warned that states are ascribing every single death of anyone who happens to test positive for the coronavirus — even if they are asymptomatic — to the virus rather than the clear cause of death. Now, thanks to a lawsuit in Colorado, the state was forced to revise its death count down by 23 % over the weekend — from 1,150 to 878. The state is now publishing numbers of deaths “with” COVID-19 separate from deaths “from” COVID-19. As I reported on Thursday, county officials started accusing the state’s department of health of reclassifying deaths of those who tested positive for the virus but died of things like alcohol poisoning as COVID-19 deaths just to insidiously inflate the numbers. This revision in Colorado is a bombshell story that, of course, will remain unknown to most Americans. Every state needs to do this, and if they did, we would find an across-the-board drop in numbers by at least 25%, the same %age by which Dr. Birx reportedly believes the count is being inflated, according to the Washington Post. For example, in Minnesota, state officials are now admitting that every single person who dies in a nursing home after testing positive is now deemed to have died from the virus, never mind the fact that 25% of all natural deaths in a given week occur in nursing homes and that most cases of COVID-19 are asymptomatic, which means more often than not, they died exclusively of other causes.


2) States with longer lockdowns had worse results: Kyle Lamb posted a solid analysis on Twitter, grouping states by how long they implemented a lockdown and averaging out the deaths per 100,000 people by each grouping. The results are stounding, as there is a perfectly inverse relationship between how long a state implemented a lockdown and how successful it was in keeping the deaths down. I independently cross-checked these numbers, and they appear to be accurate.



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While this doesn’t necessarily prove that lockdowns cause more COVID-19 deaths (although they definitely cause other deaths), it’s nearly impossible to assert the other way around – that lockdowns prevent deaths – if we see zero correlation in the data. This is especially true given that Florida is the third most populous state and has the highest concentration of seniors, yet deaths and hospitalizations are way down since the state reopened on May 4. Florida is more densely populated than Michigan and Pennsylvania, yet has one-sixth and one-fourth of the deaths per capita, respectively. The same holds true for Georgia, which is a fairly densely populated state. Infections are down over 40% and deaths are down 31% since reopening. As Secretary of Health Alex Azar said yesterday, “We are seeing that in places that are opening, we’re not seeing this spike in cases. We still see spikes in some areas that are, in fact, closed.”


3) Outside nursing homes, the fatality rate never warranted such action, even if it would work: Every day we find more hard data showing that the overwhelming majority of cases are asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic, and outside nursing homes, the chance of dying is very low and very limited to a population we can more efficiently shield. For those who are younger and healthier, deaths are almost nonexistent. Spain was one of the hardest-hit countries and has a higher overall fatality rate than others, yet its age-stratified fatality rates mirror what we have seen in the Netherlands, Denmark, France, and elsewhere. One Twitter commentator has broken down the age-based fatality rates of the comprehensive Spanish antibody study, and the results are similar to what we’ve seen elsewhere:




Amit Thadhani @amitsurg


· May 10, 2020


View: https://twitter.com/amitsurg/status/1259333148904734720


Those promoting Herd immunity as solution should understand they’re talking of 2% of the entire population of the country dying quickly. In the Indian context that’s at least 2 crore deaths upfront and there is still no guarantee that you won’t succumb to other strains of COVID. https://twitter.com/sumanthraman/status/1259330876615221249 …


Sumanth Raman
@sumanthraman


Clearly the Sweden experiment hasn't worked. https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1259252661825662978 …



Gummi Bear @gummibear737




Based on the most accurate antibody testing data available (Spain, 60k, countrywide), you would not be correcr.

IFR is less than 0.7% in Spain, but deaths of old skew the numbers. India is a much younger population so the IFR would be much lower.

View image on Twitter


24


3:24 AM - May 17, 2020

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He used public information to calculate the case data and the population age data, and I have spot-checked some data points and they all seem on target. It’s identical to what the Netherlands found.


netherlands-IFR-chart2.png



Remember, Spain was one of the hardest-hit countries, but even there, 57% of all deaths and the overwhelming majority of deaths of those above age 80 were in senior care facilities. When you take them out of the equation, the death rates are shockingly low. Yet the same politicians who focused on locking up an entire country failed to care for those in nursing homes. This demographic COVID-19 death chart from Massachusetts speaks volumes about the targeted scope of the danger.


mass-covid-deaths.png



It’s essentially the same story in every state.


4) Outside New York, this is barely worse than bad flu seasons: While Europe is opening its schools, almost every U.S. state continues to keep schools shut. Yet according to the CDC’s latest weekly report, “For children (0-17 years), COVID-19 hospitalization rates are much lower than influenza hospitalization rates at comparable time points during recent influenza seasons.” Even the World Health Organization’s top scientist just admitted that children “seem less capable of spreading the virus.” As for everyone else, if you look at the bump in overall deaths for most states (outside the tristate area), they are either at, slightly below, or slight above the 2018 flu season. But at this point, everything is way below a typical flu season in the winter, yet you wouldn’t know it from listening to the media. According to the CDC, hospitalizations and deaths have been declining in all 10 designated regions for the past 3-7 weeks. Still, we are now being more fascist that even Italy in violating civil rights.





5) Excess deaths are from the lockdowns, not the virus: While there is zero evidence that lockdowns saved any lives of coronavirus patients, there is clear evidence they cost other lives. It has been observed in a number of states that there are excess deaths being detected, primarily from people dying at home. The CDC is predicting 21,462-40,097 excess deaths NOT due to COVID-19, likely from those too scared to come to the ER because of the exaggerated risk being associated with COVID-19. Also, a recent analysis of excess deaths in England shows that they are seeing thousands of people dying at home from other symptoms because of the lockdown.


6) Social distancing was invented by a high-school kid and politicians, not scientists: Jeffrey Tucker of the American Institute for Economic research reports that the origin of this cult of “social distancing” being used for totalitarian lockdowns was the brainchild of a high schooler’s sociology paper in 2006, promoted by the Bush administration during the avian flu. It was widely mocked by the epidemiological community, including by Johns Hopkins, for “causing the potential for a ‘serious adverse outcome,’” thereby ensuring that “a manageable epidemic could move toward catastrophe.”


How have we allowed such an illogical approach to crush our liberties, economy, hospitals, education, and criminal justice? How have we lost our freedoms?


The answer is that the public is not getting the right information. This is why the political class is doing everything in its power to censor anyone who dares question the idolatry of this lockdown cult. YouTube has censored the videos of Knut Wittkowski, who was a top epidemiologist in Germany and then served as the head of biostatistics, epidemiology, and research design at Rockefeller University. One would think we’d want to hear his opinion, but there is only one view that is allowed to gain traction. Why is it that only one side is scared of the information of the other side?


As James Madison warned, “Knowledge will forever govern ignorance: And a people who mean to be their own Governors, must arm themselves with the power which knowledge gives.”
 

The Mountain

Here since the beginning
_______________
I've never lost my ability to taste food with the seasonal flu. I've never been stuck in bed for 2 weeks because I can't walk to the bathroom without panting for air.

But go-ahead and make.sure you get it.

I did get it, back in Feb. It was a slightly ugly cold, lasted about a week and a half, never put me in bed, and never did a thing to my ability to taste food.


ETA I don't think anyone is claiming that the Wuhan virus *does the same things* as the seasonal flu, just that it's impacting the population in numbers that are slighty less than a typical flu season. If you want to base this on anecdotes, I've had bad flu infections in the past, where they put me in bed for a week with a high fever, made it hard to walk, and so on, and that's when I was much younger, highly fit and in excellent health. The Wuhan virus, apart from a small number of outliers, is really only a problem for people with pre-existing health conditions, and this is borne out by the CDC numbers as well as those in the article I posted.

And let's not forget that the Hong Kong flu killed way more, and there was no lockdown or quarantine. Heck, Woodstock was held in the middle of the outbreak.
 
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BassMan

Veteran Member
I've never lost my ability to taste food with the seasonal flu. I've never been stuck in bed for 2 weeks because I can't walk to the bathroom without panting for air.

But go-ahead and make.sure you get it.

So from a a Risk Management perspective, it sounds like the “probability” of getting WuFlu is simiar to the flu, but the ”impact” can be much worse. For these less familiar with Risk Management, to get the overall risk, you multiply the probability by the impact.

As I hide under my bed (figuratively speaking), it has always been the impact of WuFlu that concerns me.

Formal Risk Management would of course look at “risks” like loss of income and “opportunities” like living a fulfilling life.
 

TheSearcher

Are you sure about that?
I've never lost my ability to taste food with the seasonal flu.

I have, many times. Nothing like having some premium food product you love, and it tastes like literally nothing when you take a bite. I've known many people to lose the ability to taste while in the throes of influenza.

I've never been stuck in bed for 2 weeks because I can't walk to the bathroom without panting for air.

I've been stuck in bed with the flu for a week a time or two, with difficulty breathing, yes. Maybe should have spent some more time, but was too stubborn.

But go-ahead and make.sure you get it.

Really? Do you think that what The Mountain was advocating? People don't want to get the flu OR get a visit from Coronachan. He was pointing out some facts, and at least implying that perhaps this is not the plot of "28 Days Later" running in realtime.
 

TheSearcher

Are you sure about that?
So from a a Risk Management perspective, it sounds like the “probability” of getting WuFlu is simiar to the flu, but the ”impact” can be much worse. For these less familiar with Risk Management, to get the overall risk, you multiply the probability by the impact.

As I hide under my bed (figuratively speaking), it has always been the impact of WuFlu that concerns me.

Formal Risk Management would of course look at “risks” like loss of income and “opportunities” like living a fulfilling life.

The above is all true. Well said.
 

mzkitty

I give up.
Old people should just stay indoors and not around people, it looks like. Which is true for any flu season.

The reason I ended up in the hospital last year, not able to breathe, was first the new building supt breathed all over me before he told me he had had the flu A a week or so before that (so he was working while sick). Then, even though I had the flu shot, I came down with it. I went to the dr. and tested positive for A. He left his freaking germs flying around the halls everywhere. THEN, he spilled paint thinner or something and the fumes came under my door, necessitating the 5 day hospital stay. If people would STAY HOME when they're sick, they wouldn't infect others. He was still shedding germs.

Staying home for Coronachan was my only option, except for going to the store. For my son too. Then coming home and showering and washing hair and changing clothes, and using stash of hand sanitizer. So far so good.
 

Gardener

Senior Member
In our small town (~5000 people) the local funeral home has had 6 covid deaths. All of them were over the age of 80, and had significant other health issues. All of them were living in the local nursing home. I have heard anecdotally of a few dozen people with covid, some officially diagnosed, some presumed positive without testing. All of these are below the age 80, and none were hospitalized.

A few years ago a nasty influenza strain went through the local nursing home, and we had similar numbers of deaths, but I don't know how many people in the community also had the flu that year.

The number of deaths since the lockdown began is much higher than normal (about double for April), even if you take out the covid deaths. The local funeral director speculates that the lockdown has contributed to the increased death rate due to depression, lack of exercise in the older population, and people not going the the ER when they should for fear of getting covid. The director also speculates that we are just "pulling forward" the death rate, that is, the total death rate for the year will not be higher than average, there will just be more deaths in the beginning of the year, and fewer at the end of the year.

We'll see how it pans out.
 

Border Collie Dad

Flat Earther

naturallysweet said:

But go-ahead and make.sure you get it.
Really? Do you think that what The Mountain was advocating? People don't want to get the flu OR get a visit from Coronachan. He was pointing out some facts, and at least implying that perhaps this is not the plot of "28 Days Later" running in realtime.

If I recall correctly, naturally sweet is one of the die hard true believers here
 

SmithJ

Veteran Member
I did get it, back in Feb. It was a slightly ugly cold, lasted about a week and a half, never put me in bed, and never did a thing to my ability to taste food.


ETA I don't think anyone is claiming that the Wuhan virus *does the same things* as the seasonal flu, just that it's impacting the population in numbers that are slighty less than a typical flu season. If you want to base this on anecdotes, I've had bad flu infections in the past, where they put me in bed for a week with a high fever, made it hard to walk, and so on, and that's when I was much younger, highly fit and in excellent health. The Wuhan virus, apart from a small number of outliers, is really only a problem for people with pre-existing health conditions, and this is borne out by the CDC numbers as well as those in the article I posted.

And let's not forget that the Hong Kong flu killed way more, and there was no lockdown or quarantine. Heck, Woodstock was held in the middle of the outbreak.

Which test did they give you to diagnose it? How hard was it to get tested in February? Where were you located then?
 

Meemur

Voice on the Prairie / FJB!
Yes . . . the virus is real. What concerns a lot of us is the hype and the excessive measures by government officials, like in Michigan where their governor is telling everyone to not go to their summer cottage, but she went to hers.

That is garbage!

As stated elsewhere, I'm older, so I'm staying out of crowds, but that is my decision. It is none of my business if others decide to play sports or hang out on the beaches in large gatherings.
 

SmithJ

Veteran Member
There will be over 100,000 dead in the US in the next week or so. Yes many of them are from the older population.

But is that because the virus was overrated / overhyped - or is it because of the mitigation efforts?

Was Y2K a non event from the start or was it prevented from being a catastrophe by a lot of hard, costly work?

We’ll probably never know the entire answer to either.

Even if there is an answer, it’s way too early to declare the ccp virus “just another flu”
 

SmithJ

Veteran Member
And we will never know even cheating lying statistics about the death toll due to the economic shutdown, either. Because it is not in the Dhimmicrat's interests to tell the public that THE SHUTDOWN IS KILLING PEOPLE TOO. As well as doing untold other damage.

No argument there either; it’s awful. It is yet to be seen how bad this entire episode will affect our country and ourselves.

One thing has always been certain in my life. When I think it can’t get worse........ bam
 

Select

Senior Member
Spanish Flu was 100 years ago.

Flu vaccine was developed 70 years ago

Every year the flu vaccine contains four variants determined by the best estimate of the CDC.

It has been scientifically researched and continuously developed for "seventy years" and still, every year, they guess wrong.

Millions of people get the flu vaccine every year. Each year they produce 165 million doses of vaccine for a population of 320 million. They never produce enough vaccine for the entire population.

Every year 30-60 thousand people die from the flu in the US
Every year 2.5 million people die from all causes in the US.

The US has yet to develop herd immunity for the flu.

It is very reasonable to expect that a corona vaccine will be developed and that it will be effective.
Suggest you wait for "the cure" - it is definitely going to be soon. {sarcasmOff/}
just two more weeks!
 

forpetesake

Senior Member
The Wuhan virus is producing numbers more or less similar to the seasonal flu, in terms of hospitalizations and illnesses. It's actually producing smaller numbers for younger people (kids and young adults). Note that I am excluding NY from this, because the virus was so badly managed there, and even in NY the VAST majority of deaths were in nursing homes and/or the result of comorbidity.

Now, the key thing to remember, and it's something that rarely gets mentioned: the numbers are about the same for the Wuhan virus and the flu, but there's a vaccine for the flu and none for Wuhan. So in reality the seasonal influenza is a far more dangerous virus overall. Imagine how much worse every flu season would be if we didn't have a seasonal flu vaccination? Yes, I know some folks (including me) don't usually get the vaccine, because reasons, but most people do, and it likely does make a dent in the potential number of flu cases.

Here's an article with the numbers that support this:


Edited for clarity
Where in that article did it address organ damage?
 

forpetesake

Senior Member
The article mainly addresses the hype about the virus rather than refuting every specific claim.
The "hype" has to do with the issue of organ damage. It's nasty any way you slice it. There's a lot we don't know about this virus. We don't know why some people succumb and some don't. You may call it "hype", others think it's prudent to stay the hell away from it. YMMV
 

Border Collie Dad

Flat Earther
The "hype" has to do with the issue of organ damage. It's nasty any way you slice it. There's a lot we don't know about this virus. We don't know why some people succumb and some don't. You may call it "hype", others think it's prudent to stay the hell away from it. YMMV

We know some things and may know more if the info was available.
We know that somewhere around 2/3rds of the deaths in the big death states were from nursing homes.
Fragile people who were exposed by forcing those homes to take sick people.

Kind of like infected blankets for Indians.

If we had stats on the geneal health of the remaining 1/3rd we may be able to know something
 

night driver

ESFP adrift in INTJ sea
And if one applies all the tenets of Risk Management and is a tyro like me, one can say quite confidently we have a handle on the risks attached and or blameable on COVID-19 AND the Mitigation efforts/lock-downs rather than quarantines.

Bassman, fingers off the keyboard for JUST another couple of minutes, OK?

And a tyro, like ME can SAY all that and be demonstrably a TYRO, within a few months, because that sentence is pure and utter Hopium, highly refined from some leftover Obam-bam crap. (or bat crap as Gramarly wanted to say it)

We simply won't KNOW until this plays out for another year, to see what our Overlords do to screw things up as is their wont.

One thing I can say, it WILL be BAD (and most everyone under 40 will develop a whole new definition of BAD over the next 18 months.


Refer to this thread -=--=- USA - My personal warning about the availability of products from China

To work up some parms* for BAD.

Parameters*



(IN short, the VIRUS is REAL but NOT THE REAL Problem. The REAL PROBLEM is what has happened to our manufacturing of STUFF, all over the world. Austerity is NOT JUST a word used in Schools to describe their spending after a levy goes down.)
 
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