WAR IRAN MOVES TO CONTROL SUEZ CANAL AND YEMEN 1-21-2015

Doomer Doug

TB Fanatic
:dstrs:

One key development has been lost in the normal chaos of the Middle East the last few days. The Iranian backed tribal group, the Houthi, has now gained effective control of Yemen's capital, and now poses a direct threat to the faltering, US backed government.
The results of that will be open warfare between the Sunni and Shia in Yemen. It will also have the additional effect of linking the Shia in Yemen with the Shia living in Eastern Saudi Arabia. This will likely cause even more chaos in Saudi Arabia itself. The recent border attack on Saudi Arabia has also been lost in the ongoing chaos.

Yemen is where the USS Cole was attacked prior to 9-11-2001.
Yemen is where multiple attacks in Africa, Europe and the USA have been planned.
Yemen is now in play between Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the USA.




http://www.cnn.com/2015/01/20/world/yemen-violence/

)Shiite Houthi rebels overtook the presidential palace in Yemen's capital, Sanaa, on Tuesday, marking what a government minister called "the completion of a coup."

"The President has no control," Minister of Information Nadia Sakkaf told CNN as clashes raged.

President Abdu Rabu Mansour Hadi was thought to be in his private residence at the time -- not in the palace. There were reports of clashes near the residence.

And the Prime Minister's residence was under attack from the street, Sakkaf said.

The regime still controlled the city of Aden, and it closed the port of Aden as well as roads leading into and out of Sanaa, according to Yemeni state TV, which is controlled by the government.

Power vacuum could benefit terrorist group AQAP

The global stakes are high. Yemen is home to al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, or AQAP, the terror network linked to such attacks as the recent slaughter at French satirical publication Charlie Hebdo. AQAP also tried to blow up a plane landing in Detroit in 2009.

The battle against AQAP has helped make Yemen's government a U.S. ally in the fight against al Qaeda. A power vacuum often benefits terrorist groups.

The Yemeni government has been grappling with pressure not only from the Sunni Muslim AQAP but also from Houthi militants, Shiite Muslims who have long felt marginalized in the majority Sunni country.

Seven things to know about Yemen

Houthi leader: Conspiracy links Yemen to Charlie Hebdo attack

"We are the victims of corruption and false promises," Houthi rebel leader Abdul Malik al-Houthi said in a televised address on a network controlled by Houthis and based in Beirut, Lebanon. "The government did not respect the peace and partnership deal from September. We are trying to bring some legitimacy to the government."

He complained of economic struggles and poverty.

Al-Houthi also said there is an international conspiracy to link Yemen to the attacks in Paris.

"Yemeni people have two options -- to move against the foreign agendas, or stand against them firmly since they seek to spread chaos in Yemen. This is why we moved with the Yemeni people though many powers inside and outside Yemen are angered. But the Yemeni people are with us and understand our goals," he said.

AQAP claimed responsibility for the Charlie Hebdo attack, and U.S. investigators have worked on the assumption that attacker Said Kouachi met the late American terrorist cleric Anwar al-Awlaki at some point in Yemen and received orders from AQAP, a U.S. official told CNN.
Houthi men wearing army uniforms stand guard on a street leading to the presidential palace in Sanaa, Yemen, on Wednesday, January 21. After two days of turmoil and talk of a coup, an official says the Yemeni government and Houthi rebels have reached a tentative agreement aimed at defusing the country's political crisis.


Tuesday's developments came a day after heavy fighting between government forces and Houthis left nine people dead and 67 others injured, Yemen's Health Ministry said, before the sides agreed to a ceasefire.

Gunfire could be heard sporadically across Sanaa on Tuesday.

U.S. Embassy vehicle comes under fire

Unknown assailants fired shots Monday night at a U.S. Embassy vehicle in Sanaa, the U.S. Embassy said Tuesday.



The shooters fired first into the air and then turned the guns on the vehicle, the embassy said. The vehicle carried U.S. diplomatic personnel and was at a checkpoint near the embassy at the time. No injuries were reported.

The embassy is known to use SUVs that are recognizable as U.S. government vehicles.

Two U.S. Navy warships moved into new positions in the Red Sea late Monday to be ready to evacuate Americans from the embassy if needed, a U.S. official with direct knowledge of the planning told CNN.

U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon called on "all sides to immediately cease all hostilities, exercise maximum restraint, and take the necessary steps to restore full authority to the legitimate government institutions."

Members of the U.N. Security Council were briefed by the U.N. special adviser on Yemen, Jamal Benomar, and later issued a statement expressing their concern about the crisis.

They stressed that Hadi is the country's "legitimate authority."

"The members of the Security Council emphasized that all parties and political actors in Yemen must stand with President Hadi, Prime Minister Bahah, and Yemen's Cabinet to keep the country on track to stability and security," the statement read.

Prolonged turmoil

Houthis swept into the capital last year, sparking battles that left more than 300 dead in a month. In September, they signed a ceasefire deal with the government, and Houthis have since installed themselves in key positions in the government and financial institutions.

But tensions flared again last weekend as Houthis said they abducted presidential Chief of Staff Ahmed bin Mubarak in Sanaa on Saturday. Osama Sari, senior media adviser to the Houthi movement in Yemen, said Houthis detained bin Mubarak because the President wanted to introduce a new constitution without the Houthis' approval.

CNN's Jason Hanna, Mohammed Tawfeeq, Salim Essaid and Susannah Cullinane contributed to this report.
 

BREWER

Veteran Member
Greetings, Doug: Thanks for posting this. Between the economic chaos and our own personal struggles it is easy to ignore the subtleties
of the Great Game which seems to has shifted into the next highest gear. Take care. BREWER
 

Doomer Doug

TB Fanatic
Iran is moving to do several things, Brewer.

One is to control the Strait of Hormuz and seal off Saudi Arabia and the Persian Gulf oil suppliers.

Two is to control the Suez Canal, Yemen, Eritrea/Somalia and cut off Israel from the east.

Three is to cause Saudi Arabia to collapse using a combination of proxy Shia tribal members in Yemen, plus the Shia in eastern Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and the other Gulf states.

Brewer, once the Shia Houthi get control of Yemen they will have SEAPORT into which Iran can pour weapons into Yemen. From Yemen they can go into Saudi Arabia, the Gulf States, the Gaza Strip etc.

Iran is making some major moves here in my opinion, and is taking advantage of Obama's rather delusional peace offensive.
 

Millwright

Knuckle Dragger
_______________
When I saw the thread about bombs in Cairo, I started thinking about access to that side of Israel and the canal.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
When you add Yemen into this along with old reports regarding Eritrea, this all gets uglier.....

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
https://www.commentarymagazine.com/2015/01/21/iran-looking-missile-base-israel-not-nuclear-peace/

Iran Looking for Missile Base Against Israel, Not Nuclear Peace

Jonathan S. Tobin | @tobincommentary
01.21.2015 - 6:20 PM

What was an Iranian general doing hanging around on the Syrian side of the Golan Heights border with Israel? The answer is that, along with several high-ranking figures in the Hezbollah terrorist group, General Mohammed Ali Allahdadi, a reputed ballistic missiles expert, was there helping to set up a missile base from which the terror group would, with Iranian aid and instructions, strike at the State of Israel. But before he completed his mission Allahdadi was killed along with some of the Hezbollah personnel in an Israel strike on their base near the town of Quenetra. The mission nipped the Iranian scheme in the bud but it’s doubtful that anyone in the Israeli government is under the impression that the strike ended the threat of attack from Iranian forces and their auxiliaries. But the revelation of the Iranian effort near the Golan is significant because it illustrates how deeply involved Iran is in fomenting a new terror war against Israel as well as the peril presented by Western policies that would, at best, make Iran a threshold nuclear power in the years to come.

The purpose of the Iranian effort wasn’t just to make mischief for the Israelis under the cover of the chaos engendered by the Syrian civil war. The point of the plot was to allow Hezbollah to create a missile base from which it could rain death and destruction down on Israelis without involving the country of Lebanon. Hezbollah is still smarting from the negative feedback created by the 2006 war it started with Israel and which left much of that country in ruins. So what the group and its Iranian masters wanted is a secure base from which it could pepper Israel with rockets from the north in much the same manner that Hamas has done from the south. But, fortunately, as it has with various other terror plots involving Hezbollah in Syria, Israeli action has made the execution of this plot more difficult if not impossible in the short run.

But the significance of this goes beyond the threat to Israel’s missile defense efforts or its desire to keep the north peaceful even as Hamas stirs the pot in the south.

It’s no surprise to learn that senior Iranian military personnel are wandering around loose in Syria. Hezbollah and Iranian Revolutionary Guard personnel have been deployed to Syria to aid efforts to preserve the rule of dictator and Iranian ally Bashar Assad. But what is also now becoming clear is that the Iranians are looking to use their entry into Syria as part of an effort to, at the least, revive a northern front military option against Israel.

That this effort involved a ballistic missile export should, however, interest observers. While it is possible that the initial hopes for Allahdadi’s efforts were limited to attempts to launch the kind of middle-range rockets Hamas lobbed at Israel last summer, it is impossible to ignore the implications of Iran expanding its ballistic missile program to Syria.

While the world has focused its attention on Iran’s nuclear program and the effort to force the Islamist regime to abandon its ambitions for a bomb, relatively little notice has been paid to Iran’s ballistic missile program. Indeed, the Iranians have been as reluctant to discuss their rockets as they have been to reveal the details about their military research on nuclear material. But if Tehran is already sending generals to the border with the Golan to build up a missile threat against the Jewish state, it doesn’t take much imagination to think what will happen once the U.S. drops sanctions on the regime as part of a new and weak nuclear deal that let the Iranians keep their program and its infrastructure.

That puts the effort by the Obama administration to appease Iran and to work for a new détente with the regime rather than pressing it to give up its nuclear capability in a very different light. Previously, when one spoke of Iran’s state-sponsored terrorism, it brought to mind their using Hezbollah operatives to launch atrocities such as the 1994 AMIA bombing in Buenos Aires or the attack on Israeli tourists in Bulgaria. But now when we link Iran and terror, it must be acknowledged that it is possible that one day the primary Iranian threat to Israel will be nuclear and that missiles based in Syria will be the method by which Tehran will cause trouble and perhaps even launch a nuke at Israel.

If Israelis are more nervous about Iranian intentions in nuclear talks that Tehran has been, it is not just because they may think President Obama has proved himself a terrible negotiator in the peace talks. Rather, it is due to a sensible fear about Syria becoming nothing more than a launching pad for rockets in the same way Gaza has been transformed into a bastion of terror. Throw in the potential for nuclear weapons and you have a formula that ensures chaos and future bloodshed. Unless the U.S. wakes up to this threat and the folly of its stance toward Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, the consequences could be catastrophic.
 

JF&P

Deceased
Doug I think you have hit upon something really important here....we could be seeing the initial steps towards WW3.
 

Doomer Doug

TB Fanatic
If you look at a global map, factor in the entrance to the Red Sea that leads to the Suez Canal, and then look at both Yemen and Eritrea you get a missile launch envelope that SEALS THE RED SEA ENTRANCE TO THE SUEZ CANAL.

I will be posting some more thoughts on my wordpress blog.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
If you look at a global map, factor in the entrance to the Red Sea that leads to the Suez Canal, and then look at both Yemen and Eritrea you get a missile launch envelope that SEALS THE RED SEA ENTRANCE TO THE SUEZ CANAL.

I will be posting some more thoughts on my wordpress blog.

Here are a couple of maps that might help.....

red_sea_87.jpg

http://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/middle_east_and_asia/red_sea_87.jpg

Red_Sea_topographic_map-en.jpg

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/19/Red_Sea_topographic_map-en.jpg
 

Doomer Doug

TB Fanatic
HE, Iran may be preparing to make a public statement it does have nuclear weapons. If the West wants to do anything about it, Iran will shoot a few missiles into tankers headed for both the Suez Canal, and the Strait of Hormuz. Presto: INSTANT GLOBAL ECONOMIC CHAOS AND OIL AT $1200 A BARREL!!
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
HE, Iran may be preparing to make a public statement it does have nuclear weapons. If the West wants to do anything about it, Iran will shoot a few missiles into tankers headed for both the Suez Canal, and the Strait of Hormuz. Presto: INSTANT GLOBAL ECONOMIC CHAOS AND OIL AT $1200 A BARREL!!

Heck, just a couple of old fashioned contact naval mines and some "false flag" suicide bomb speed boats alleging to be AQ against tanker traffic would help stir up the markets.

As to Iran having "nuclear weapons", I have no doubt that they've got a bunch of "assemblies" ready to go just waiting for "pits". The question is how many "pits" do they have and at what number would they feel "safe" to declare?

Add to that, about the only way such a claim wouldn't be blown off would be an "operational test" of a warhead either from a blimp over a barge in the middle of the Arabian Sea or from a missile fired into that same area. Otherwise they'll have the same "poo poing" of North Korea's capabilities.
 

Plain Jane

Just Plain Jane
I just talked to a younger than me person who served 10 yrs. ago in Kuwait. Shae had no perspective on this situation so now I ask you all. If Yemen has fallen into the hands of Shia militia, will they do a better job of reigning in AGAP than we did? I don't have TV but was at a restaurant that does. This story was being reported as the US losing a key ally in the War on Terror but it occurs to me that the Shia might actually do a better job with AQAP than we did. Am I worng?
 

Ben Sunday

Deceased
Doug I think you have hit upon something really important here....we could be seeing the initial steps towards WW3.

I absolutely agree. This is critical because it reflects medium to high risk to both commerce in oil and some mangled appearance of ordered and responsible government.

Threat to Saudi Arabia is huge, especially with the Saudi king now expired.

Also from JF&P:

I think this needs to be bumped.

Hit that button!

:dstrs:
 
Last edited:

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
I just talked to a younger than me person who served 10 yrs. ago in Kuwait. Shae had no perspective on this situation so now I ask you all. If Yemen has fallen into the hands of Shia militia, will they do a better job of reigning in AGAP than we did? I don't have TV but was at a restaurant that does. This story was being reported as the US losing a key ally in the War on Terror but it occurs to me that the Shia might actually do a better job with AQAP than we did. Am I worng?

A big part of it is that the Shia are wholly owned by Tehran whereas the former government was within US "influence".

Though they'll very likely go after AQAP with abandon, I wouldn't be surprised to see AQAP suddenly getting a bunch of new gear from within Saudi.
 

Doomer Doug

TB Fanatic
PJ, it is an enemy of my enemy type of situation in Yemen. The Houthi tribespeople, Shia against Sunni, will allow the USA, maybe even Israel to kill all the Sunni in Yemen since it is in the Shia best interest to do so. The reality will hit once the last Sunni in Yemen is either dead or fled. Iran will then control Yemen, the Red Sea entrance to the Suez Canal, and will unleash a Shia terror campaign against Saudi Arabia, the Gulf States, and the rest of the world.

Israel really messed up on this attack.
 

Doomer Doug

TB Fanatic
Sleeping Cobra, I am thinking several things.

One: The US Marines are on full combat alert for the evac, just like the movie "Rules of Engagement."
Two: The Shia Houthi tribesman are kicking back and enjoying the fact they will use Western Powers to kill off their Sunni enemies.
Three. IRAN IS LAUGHING ITS SHIA BUTT OFF RIGHT NOW.
 

Sleeping Cobra

TB Fanatic
Remember the USA has war ships in the red sea. Wondering what's really going on.

Yemen’s president held captive; U.S. sends Navy warships to Red Sea

Wednesday, January 21, 2015

Yemen President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi is being held captive by rebels who have attacked his compound, just as the U.S. military has moved the USS Iwo Jima and the USS Fort McHenry into the Red Sea, in position to take aboard evacuees from the U.S. Embassy in Yemen if tensions and violence continue to escalate.

Various media have also reported that the presidential compound is under attack and Shiite Houthi rebels, backed by Iran, are holding the Yemeni president captive.

Yemen’s information minister, Nadia Sakkaf, wrote in a Twitter message that “Yemeni president is being attacked by armed militias that want to overthrow” the government, The Washington Post reported. She also said that political talks were continuing, but that the situation was violent.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/jan/21/us-sends-navy-warships-into-red-sea-poised-for-emb/

(But Not Sure If This Next One Is True)

Israel, Iran Move Warships to Red Sea

4:32 PM on Thursday, January 22, 2015 - Shevat 2, 5775

Israel and Iran, bitter enemies, have in recent days both moved war ships to the Red Sea.

Israel, in response to intelligence signaling an imminent terror attack in the south, moved two war ships to the Red Sea port of Eilat, a military spokesman said on Tuesday.

Israel had already reinforced its troop numbers and deployed other ships along its border with Egypt, in part responding to a terror attack that took the lives of 8 Israelis on Aug. 18.

According to the AP, Israel's home front minister said a team of 10 Islamic Jihad terrorists was already in Sinai waiting to strike.

“The Palestinian Islamic Jihad wants to carry out a terror attack along the Egyptian border,” Matan Vilnai told reporters. “The Egyptian border is absolutely porous. We have known this for many years.”

At the same time, Iran's government press agency said Tuesday that the Islamic Republic will also deploy naval forces in the area -- the Iranian 15th fleet which includes a submarine and warships.

Ynet reports the Iranian ships will patrol near the Gulf of Aden, located near the mouth of the Red Sea adjacent to Somalia. In a Kafkaesque twist, the Iranian government said it is deploying the ships to "convey the message of peace and friendship to all countries."

http://www.worldjewishdaily.com/israel-iran-warship-red-sea.php
 

cmm

Veteran Member
PJ, it is an enemy of my enemy type of situation in Yemen. The Houthi tribespeople, Shia against Sunni, will allow the USA, maybe even Israel to kill all the Sunni in Yemen since it is in the Shia best interest to do so. The reality will hit once the last Sunni in Yemen is either dead or fled. Iran will then control Yemen, the Red Sea entrance to the Suez Canal, and will unleash a Shia terror campaign against Saudi Arabia, the Gulf States, and the rest of the world.

Israel really messed up on this attack.

Doug:

What do you mean: "Israel really messed up on this attack"? What part did I miss?
 

knepper

Veteran Member
Fox News just showed a satellite photo obtained from Israel that they (Israel) says is an Iranian ballistic missile on the launching pad. As Netanyahu pointed out in the clip, the ballistic missile is not for them--they can hit Israel with garden variety missiles. It is for us.
 

night driver

ESFP adrift in INTJ sea
Thank the Peanut Farmer for enabling the Mullahs since Komeini managed to kill what was one of the shining progressive Muslim countries.


+++++++++++++++++++++++


Also remember that Iran is NOT ARAB.
 

Flippper

Time Traveler
Remember the USA has war ships in the red sea. Wondering what's really going on.
Yeah, me too. I'm wondering when the Saudi king really died and if that had anything to do with congress inviting Bibi here knowing obola wouldn't have anything to do with him once Abdulluh was dead. Plenty of intrigue right now, I imagine the spies are hoppin'.
 

Doomer Doug

TB Fanatic
Cmm, Israel had a total intelligence failure because they "apparently" did not realize/know a very high level Iranian Revolutionary Guard General was in the convoy. Israel effectively took out one of the Joint Chiefs the Iran version. Iran responded by turning loose the Houhti tribal militias and the following has happened since Israel's attack.

1. The pro western government of Yemen has COLLAPSED COMPLETELY WITH ALL GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS RESIGNING EN MASS AND LIKELY RUNNING FOR THEIR LIVES.
2. Iran now has a proxy group/armed militia, some 33 percent of Yemen's total population in FULL AND COMPLETE CONTROL OF YEMEN.
3. The Sunni forces, the Al Qaudea types that just launched the terror attack in Paris will now start a civil war in Yemen. The US and Europe will use their drones to kill the Sunnis and let Iran/Houthi take over Yemen.

So, yeah, Israel has now allowed Iranian control of Yemen, allowed Iran to have the ability to seal the Suez Canal, put Saudi Arabia at risk. Yemen will now turn into a Shia terror base, with full Iranian support, openly come over the Saudi border, arm the Shia minorities in Eastern Saudi Arabia, and the Gulf States.

All this has happened, in about the last 72 hours, because Israel totally screwed up with the convoy air strike.

When the Gulf States, Saudi Arabia are on fire from one end to the other, and when oil either can't be produced, or shipped through the Suez Canal and the Strait of Hormuz, you will see what a #$$$up Israel has done.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Cmm, Israel had a total intelligence failure because they "apparently" did not realize/know a very high level Iranian Revolutionary Guard General was in the convoy. Israel effectively took out one of the Joint Chiefs the Iran version. Iran responded by turning loose the Houhti tribal militias and the following has happened since Israel's attack.

1. The pro western government of Yemen has COLLAPSED COMPLETELY WITH ALL GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS RESIGNING EN MASS AND LIKELY RUNNING FOR THEIR LIVES.
2. Iran now has a proxy group/armed militia, some 33 percent of Yemen's total population in FULL AND COMPLETE CONTROL OF YEMEN.
3. The Sunni forces, the Al Qaudea types that just launched the terror attack in Paris will now start a civil war in Yemen. The US and Europe will use their drones to kill the Sunnis and let Iran/Houthi take over Yemen.

So, yeah, Israel has now allowed Iranian control of Yemen, allowed Iran to have the ability to seal the Suez Canal, put Saudi Arabia at risk. Yemen will now turn into a Shia terror base, with full Iranian support, openly come over the Saudi border, arm the Shia minorities in Eastern Saudi Arabia, and the Gulf States.

All this has happened, in about the last 72 hours, because Israel totally screwed up with the convoy air strike.

When the Gulf States, Saudi Arabia are on fire from one end to the other, and when oil either can't be produced, or shipped through the Suez Canal and the Strait of Hormuz, you will see what a #$$$up Israel has done.

Considering the "cooperation" Iran was already getting with Sudan and Eritrea, Iran was already in a position to "interdict" Red Sea traffic, particularly of tankers.

That being said, on the face of it yes the Israelis "missed" a key piece of info on that convoy. On the other hand, what if they hadn't? What benefit would Israel derive from knocking off this Iranian general staff officer and likely his aids? For that matter, who in Tehran benefits and could have been in a position to leak the information?
 

Doomer Doug

TB Fanatic
HE, look at the map showing the entrance to the Red Sea, with Yemen on one side, and Eritrea on the other. Iran now has, or will have, ship to ship missiles on both sides. It was Hezzbollah that launched a Chinese silkworm missile that nearly sank one of Israel's patrol boats off Lebanon in 2006.

Iran is now a credible/actual threat to ALL global shipping using both the Strait of Hormuz and the Suez Canal. This is a HUGE tactical shift in the last 72 hours.

The total collapse of Yemen's pro western government is going to have an IMMEDIATE IMPACT in the Middle East. Like I said, HE there are Shia minorities in Eastern Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and the Gulf States that are now fully able to get large scale military logistics from Northern Yemen. Northern Yemen is now fully under the control of the Houthi who are a militant branch of Shia, totally supported by Iran's Revolutionary Guard. In fact, HE Doomer Doug is saying Hezzbollah military veterans are helping the Houthi, or will be shortly.

And yes, whatever the "situation was" before Israel vaporized that Iranian Revolutionary Guard General, it has changed radically in Iran's favor. I am saying that when the history books are finally written, HE Israel's strike on that convoy will be seen as a decisive moment allowing Iran to run wild in Yemen with results lethal to the USA, to Saudi Arabia and Israel.

For one thing, the combination of a new ruler in Saudi Arabia, the creation of well armed Shia militias in Eastern Saudi Arabia, and finally, a direct threat by Iran, using militias as proxies, to ALL OIL produced, refined, and shipped out of the Persian gulf is HUGE.
It is ALL ABOUT OIL, HE. Iran just got the ability to create chaos needed to get oil back up to $110 a barrel, WHICH IS WHAT THIS IS ALL ABOUT.
 

ladydkr

Veteran Member
What no one has recognized in this thread is that Egypt is enlarging the Suez Canal. Currently ships have to wait in line to pass through as the canal only can accommodate one ship in either direction at one time. Egypt is building a parallel canal that will quadruple volume. They hope to have it finished by end of 2015. This will have political, trading and financial impact on entire region.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
HE, look at the map showing the entrance to the Red Sea, with Yemen on one side, and Eritrea on the other. Iran now has, or will have, ship to ship missiles on both sides. It was Hezzbollah that launched a Chinese silkworm missile that nearly sank one of Israel's patrol boats off Lebanon in 2006.

Iran is now a credible/actual threat to ALL global shipping using both the Strait of Hormuz and the Suez Canal. This is a HUGE tactical shift in the last 72 hours.

The total collapse of Yemen's pro western government is going to have an IMMEDIATE IMPACT in the Middle East. Like I said, HE there are Shia minorities in Eastern Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and the Gulf States that are now fully able to get large scale military logistics from Northern Yemen. Northern Yemen is now fully under the control of the Houthi who are a militant branch of Shia, totally supported by Iran's Revolutionary Guard. In fact, HE Doomer Doug is saying Hezzbollah military veterans are helping the Houthi, or will be shortly.

And yes, whatever the "situation was" before Israel vaporized that Iranian Revolutionary Guard General, it has changed radically in Iran's favor. I am saying that when the history books are finally written, HE Israel's strike on that convoy will be seen as a decisive moment allowing Iran to run wild in Yemen with results lethal to the USA, to Saudi Arabia and Israel.

For one thing, the combination of a new ruler in Saudi Arabia, the creation of well armed Shia militias in Eastern Saudi Arabia, and finally, a direct threat by Iran, using militias as proxies, to ALL OIL produced, refined, and shipped out of the Persian gulf is HUGE.
It is ALL ABOUT OIL, HE. Iran just got the ability to create chaos needed to get oil back up to $110 a barrel, WHICH IS WHAT THIS IS ALL ABOUT.

Oh I hear you. That Noor missile (Iranian copy of the Chinese C-802 that Hezbollah hit that Israeli corvette with) has a range of between 30 and 170 km and with those on either or both sides of the straits at the south end of the Red Sea or the Straits of Hormuz would be akin to mining the same stretch of water. Adding that the TEL for these things can be made to look like a delivery truck makes it all the more problematic.

Noor_(missile)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Noor_(missile)#mediaviewer/File:VelayatLauncherOfQaderMissiles.jpg

My concern is if the couple of LSTs that the Iranian Navy does have show up at a port controlled by the Houhti I'd be worried as much about Noors being delivered as a bunch of TELs with Sejjil solid fueled MRBMs (range 1,500 miles minimum).

If the IRGC can hold a secure cantonment within Houhti territory they could from Yemen, or Eritrea, also have straight shots at the Suez Canal itself as well as Israel and all of Saudi with such a solid fueled system. If Iran does have nuclear weapons to put on them that would just about "do it" for everyone involved.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.timesofisrael.com/iran-vows-to-attack-israel-from-west-bank/

Iran vows to attack Israel from West Bank

Deputy head of Revolutionary Guards says Tehran to ‘open new fronts’ in response to strike that killed Iranian general

By Times of Israel staff
January 24, 2015, 4:46 pm
Comments 10

Iran has threatened to attack Israel from the West Bank, in retaliation for an alleged Israeli airstrike in Syria on Sunday that left 12 Iranian and Hezbollah operatives dead. The airstrike has been attributed to Israel and though Jerusalem has not officially confirmed it, anonymous government sources have admitted as much.

Deputy head of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Lt.-Gen. Hossein Salami vowed Saturday to “open new fronts [against Israel] and change the balance of power.” In an excerpt of an interview with Salami, the IRGC’s number two said that Iran and Hezbollah would provide a “special reprisal” to the strike, according to the Tasnim News Agency, adding that opening a new front in the West Bank was in the works.

“Opening up a new front across the West Bank, which is a major section of our dear Palestine, will be certainly on the agenda, and this is part of a new reality that will gradually emerge,” Salami said in the inteview with Iran’s Arabic-language news channel al-Alam.

Iran and Hezbollah have issued a series of threats since the strike earlier this week, warning of a “crushing response,” and “destructive thunderbolts.” The dead included an Iranian general and senior Hezbollah commanders, Muhammad Issa and Jihad Mughniyeh, son of slain terror mastermind Imad Mughniyeh.

There have been conflicting reports as to whether Israel knew that Iranian general Mohammed Allahdadi was in the convoy.

On Friday, Channel 10 reported that Israel had sent calming messages to Iran and Hezbollah via Moscow after the strike, clarifying that it was uninterested in an escalating conflict with Tehran or the Lebanese terror group.

According to the report, Israeli officials told Moscow that Israel viewed the strike as an act of self-defense, and that Hezbollah had forced Israel’s hand by building an offensive infrastructure on its border. Jerusalem stressed it did not want the situation to deteriorate into a regional conflict. Russian leaders conveyed this message to Beirut and Tehran.

A report on Channel 2 Friday said the strike targeted the leaders of a substantial new Hezbollah terror hierarchy that was set to attempt kidnappings, rocket attacks and other assaults on military and civilian targets in northern Israel.

The new terror unit involved Mughniyeh, who was coordinating with the commander of the Quds Force of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, Qasem Soleimani, the Channel 2 report said. There was no suggestion in the report that Soleimani, a key figure in supporting Syrian President Bashar Assad and Hezbollah, was in the area at the time.

The terrorist hierarchy included recruitment and intelligence departments, and was set to begin operations targeting Israel from the Syrian Golan, including “kidnappings, firing rockets and mortar shells, and using anti-tank weapons against Israeli residential areas.”

The unit was set up “with Iranian sponsorship,” the report said. Israel’s targeting of some of its members underlined that “a red line was crossed that Israel would not tolerate.”

The TV report said Israel was braced for a response. If that response targeted Israeli civilians, however, subsequent Israeli retaliation would endanger the Assad regime in Syria, Channel 2’s military commentator Roni Daniel said. He did not state a source for that assertion.

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OldArcher

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Cmm, Israel had a total intelligence failure because they "apparently" did not realize/know a very high level Iranian Revolutionary Guard General was in the convoy. Israel effectively took out one of the Joint Chiefs the Iran version. Iran responded by turning loose the Houhti tribal militias and the following has happened since Israel's attack.

1. The pro western government of Yemen has COLLAPSED COMPLETELY WITH ALL GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS RESIGNING EN MASS AND LIKELY RUNNING FOR THEIR LIVES.
2. Iran now has a proxy group/armed militia, some 33 percent of Yemen's total population in FULL AND COMPLETE CONTROL OF YEMEN.
3. The Sunni forces, the Al Qaudea types that just launched the terror attack in Paris will now start a civil war in Yemen. The US and Europe will use their drones to kill the Sunnis and let Iran/Houthi take over Yemen.

So, yeah, Israel has now allowed Iranian control of Yemen, allowed Iran to have the ability to seal the Suez Canal, put Saudi Arabia at risk. Yemen will now turn into a Shia terror base, with full Iranian support, openly come over the Saudi border, arm the Shia minorities in Eastern Saudi Arabia, and the Gulf States.

All this has happened, in about the last 72 hours, because Israel totally screwed up with the convoy air strike.

When the Gulf States, Saudi Arabia are on fire from one end to the other, and when oil either can't be produced, or shipped through the Suez Canal and the Strait of Hormuz, you will see what a #$$$up Israel has done.

Well, if the availability of oil becomes scarce on the world stage, perhaps the curtailed fracking in this country, will resume, Americans get employed, cost of gas remains or becomes "reasonable," and America, at least oil and gas-wise, goes on the ascendancy... I'm no lover of Saudi Arabia, or it's corrupt systems and culture...

Whenever anyplace becomes a haven for terrorists, we need to respond in the maximum manner- kill'em all...
Maybe the Israeli's did have an intelligence failure, taking out one of Iran's top generals... Let's not flog'em...
They're still the best ally we've got- anywhere...

Maranatha

OA
 

Warm Wisconsin

Easy as 3.141592653589..
I believe that the Muslim prophecy says that once the King of Saudia Arabia dies that the Mahdi will come and Iran will strike Saudia Arabia. I will try and find it. This will line up fairly will with Daniel 11:40 to the last verse of Daniel well.
 

BREWER

Veteran Member
Posted for fair use and discussion.
http://www.debka.com/newsupdatepopup/10290/

« Breaking News »
Lebanese sources: Iranian general’s cell phone gave him away
DEBKAfile January 24, 2015, 5:58 PM (IDT)

Israeli intelligence was able to locate and keep tracks on Iranian General Mohammed Ali Allah Dadi, who was killed in an Israeli air strike on the Golan, because he persisted in keeping his cell phone switched on, according to the Lebanese newspaper Al-Gumhuriya. Israeli eavesdroppers listened in on his conversations and were able to pin down his exact whereabouts.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Posted for fair use and discussion.
http://www.debka.com/article/24359/...h-pivotal-issues-of-oil-prices-Iran-and-Yemen

US-Saudi summit in Riyadh to deal with pivotal issues of oil prices, Iran and Yemen
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report January 24, 2015, 2:32 PM (IDT)
Tags: Saudi King Salman, Barack Obama, oil, Iran nuclear, Yemen,
Past meeting between President Barack Obama and King Salman, then Crown Prince
Past meeting between President Barack Obama and King Salman, then Crown Prince

President Barack Obama, having decided to cut short the third day of his India visit, will arrive in Riyadh Tuesday, Jan. 27 with the First Lady, to offer US condolences on the death of King Abdullah and hold critical talks with his successor, King Salman Bin Abdulaziz.
He will want to clear the air most urgently on three controversial items of burning interest to both leaders: Riyadh’s flat opposition to the multilateral nuclear deal with Iran and skepticism in the face of Obama’s conviction that a comprehensive accord will curtail the Islamic Republic’s drive for a nuclear weapon.

Next, the US leader will try and persuade the new Saudi ruler to slow down oil production in order to put the brakes on plunging prices, an example which other OPEC members are sure to follow.

Finally, Obama and Salman must decide how to handle the fall of Yemen into the hands of Shiite Houthi rebels, who have seized the capital Sanaa with Iranian support and brought down the US-Saudi-sponsored president Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi.

Two secondary issues will be the struggle against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant in the oil kingdom’s back yard, in which the US and Saudi Arabia are coalition partners; and the situation in the Syrian conflict.

Since this is an outsize agenda for one meeting, debkafile’s sources in Washington and the Gulf expect Obama to focus in his initial encounter with Salman on the broad lines of the nuclear Iran dispute and oil prices. Detailed discussions on these and other issues will be set aside for US and Saudi officials of lower rank to hammer out in the coming weeks, as the new king begins to take hold of the reins of government.

A number of Middle East leaders will be following the outcome of this Riyadh summit with bated breath. Many are worried that Obama may persuade the new monarch to play ball with his Middle East policies, so effecting a radical reversal of the late Abdullah’s stance of flat opposition to Obama’s tactics in the region, aside from isolated cases.

A decision by Salman to accept America’s lead on the Iranian nuclear question and oil prices would be a serious blow for the anti-US Arab front, spearheaded hitherto by Saudi Arabia, Egypt and some of the Gulf emirates. It would also be a setback for Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s fight against Obama’s nuclear diplomacy for Iran. This policy was underpinned by the Saudi-Egyptian political and military partnership that aimed at stalling the deal crafted by Washington, which purported to lay to rest the nuclear controversy with Iran.

Read earlier debkafile Analysis on Saudi Arabia after Abdullah’s death.
 

homecanner1

Veteran Member
Have beat a drum for the last five years to " watch the Suez ". It is Israel's to lose and a back channel supply line. Saudi kingdom in succession turmoil, Yemeni govt. collapse, Iran senses true weakness and has maneuvered to pounce soon. Swiss jumping to Chinese currency peg ( during Davos old home week no less ) sends a huge signal as well as events kicking off in Crimea/Kiev, spell alarming dominoes are falling. How many kettles will boil over all at once? Its dazzling how many chess pieces are poised to strike on the board. Vigilance to all! ( adding, We talked about this exact scenario in wake of a Saudi Kingdom power vacuum back in the Redeye days IIRC)
 

GardenMum

Contributing Member
:dstrs:

One key development has been lost in the normal chaos of the Middle East the last few days. The Iranian backed tribal group, the Houthi, has now gained effective control of Yemen's capital, and now poses a direct threat to the faltering, US backed government.
The results of that will be open warfare between the Sunni and Shia in Yemen. It will also have the additional effect of linking the Shia in Yemen with the Shia living in Eastern Saudi Arabia. This will likely cause even more chaos in Saudi Arabia itself. The recent border attack on Saudi Arabia has also been lost in the ongoing chaos.

Yemen is where the USS Cole was attacked prior to 9-11-2001.
Yemen is where multiple attacks in Africa, Europe and the USA have been planned.
Yemen is now in play between Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the USA...

The other day, I heard someone originally from the Middle-East say that he hoped Israel wouldn't do anything to stir up trouble with Iran. He said he was worried about that because, in his view, the U.S. has lost much of its influence over Israel's actions even though he believes that if Israel and Iran went to war, the U.S. would be dragged into it (despite advocating caution. That is...if the U.S. IS indeed advocating caution).

Over many years, we've discussed the political situation over there in depth and I've never heard him say anything like that.
 

GardenMum

Contributing Member
I believe that the Muslim prophecy says that once the King of Saudia Arabia dies that the Mahdi will come and Iran will strike Saudia Arabia. ...

Yikes!

I, for one, would love to see a map showing which parts of the world are dominated by Shiite Muslims and which parts are dominated by Sunnis (the sect that brought us ISIL).

One of the amazing things about all of this is that the Shiite Muslims used to be considered "the terrorists." Huh? What?
 

Doomer Doug

TB Fanatic
I have seen conflicting reports about whether the USA has ceased all offensive actions in Yemen due to the total collapse of the pro western government. I am assuming right now, with total chaos in the capital city, the rout of the Yemen technicians, combat troops etc there are no drone strikes going on right now.
There was a news story out saying the former leader, the one kicked out during the spring 2011 "Arab Spring" is going to take over. It was also reported the Sunni terror group has now started to partition Yemen into North and South Yemen and is refusing to obey orders from the capital. Further, there are reports of massive demonstrations, from both Shia and Sunni, thousands of armed Houthi Militia manning checkpoints in the capital city and other places. The Sunnis are also clearly mobilizing for war in the southern part of Yemen.

Bottom line, whatever political system was in place the day Israel took out that Revolutionary Guard General has now collapsed. Iran is in the process of taking over Northern Yemen, arming Shia militias EVERYWHERE ON THE ARABIAN PENINSULA: EASTERN SAUDI ARABIA, BAHRAIN AND THE GULF STATES, for the purpose of OVERTHROWING THE HOUSE OF SAUD.

Yep, Israel may very well have triggered a regional Middle Eastern War, like the Yom Kippur war in October of 1973.

HE, et al: You do realize if anybody, for any reason lits up one oil tanker entering the Red Sea entrance to the Suez Canal we go to DEFCON DEEP DO DO. <G> Yep, Doomer Doug is thinking Iran's Revolutionary Guard is flying in a few ship killer missiles into the now controlled by an Iran proxy group/militia Sana airport. One five ton truck, and bingo Iran gets to play with the big boys. Further, the timing of releasing a pic of a long range, hit Paris Iranian missile, along with the Yemen take over, well Iran is clearly making a move.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
I have seen conflicting reports about whether the USA has ceased all offensive actions in Yemen due to the total collapse of the pro western government. I am assuming right now, with total chaos in the capital city, the rout of the Yemen technicians, combat troops etc there are no drone strikes going on right now.
There was a news story out saying the former leader, the one kicked out during the spring 2011 "Arab Spring" is going to take over. It was also reported the Sunni terror group has now started to partition Yemen into North and South Yemen and is refusing to obey orders from the capital. Further, there are reports of massive demonstrations, from both Shia and Sunni, thousands of armed Houthi Militia manning checkpoints in the capital city and other places. The Sunnis are also clearly mobilizing for war in the southern part of Yemen.

Bottom line, whatever political system was in place the day Israel took out that Revolutionary Guard General has now collapsed. Iran is in the process of taking over Northern Yemen, arming Shia militias EVERYWHERE ON THE ARABIAN PENINSULA: EASTERN SAUDI ARABIA, BAHRAIN AND THE GULF STATES, for the purpose of OVERTHROWING THE HOUSE OF SAUD.

Yep, Israel may very well have triggered a regional Middle Eastern War, like the Yom Kippur war in October of 1973.

HE, et al: You do realize if anybody, for any reason lits up one oil tanker entering the Red Sea entrance to the Suez Canal we go to DEFCON DEEP DO DO. <G> Yep, Doomer Doug is thinking Iran's Revolutionary Guard is flying in a few ship killer missiles into the now controlled by an Iran proxy group/militia Sana airport. One five ton truck, and bingo Iran gets to play with the big boys. Further, the timing of releasing a pic of a long range, hit Paris Iranian missile, along with the Yemen take over, well Iran is clearly making a move.

Oh I know Doug.

The timing of the Russian Iranian defense pact can't be ignored either along with what looks like the opening of a full court press by Russia to get a "defendable" land corridor to Crimea from the current "rebel" held areas of eastern Ukraine.

Add the moves by Russia to get port access to Cyprus on the other side of the Suez Canal and reopening a defense relationship with Cairo and who's taking advantage of whom becomes I think a valid question.

ETA: A tanker gets hit in the Red Sea and we're very likely going to see a repeat of the "Tanker War" both in the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf along with the Arabian Sea.
 
Last edited:

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Yikes!

I, for one, would love to see a map showing which parts of the world are dominated by Shiite Muslims and which parts are dominated by Sunnis (the sect that brought us ISIL).

One of the amazing things about all of this is that the Shiite Muslims used to be considered "the terrorists." Huh? What?

Here you go.....

global-muslim-sects.png

http://www.phibetaiota.net/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/global-muslim-sects.png

Middle-East-Religious-Composition-Map.jpg

https://lubpak.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/Middle-East-Religious-Composition-Map.jpg
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.i24news.tv/en/opinion/58869-150125-analysis-the-yemenite-game-changer

Ksenia Svetlova
Published January 25th 2015
Post your comment

Analysis:The Yemenite game changer

The death of the Saudi king is bound to exacerbate the chaos in Yemen and increase the reach of global jihad

An urgent meeting of GCC ministers (Gulf Cooperation Council) in Riyadh took much longer than usual. The consultations went on forever, the participants looked nervous and tense. At the end of the day, a joint communique was issued: the GCC demanded that the Houthi rebels withdraw from the palace of Yemeni President Mansour Hadi and free Hadi's aide, who was kidnapped several days earlier. Almost at the same time, the Yemeni president, a prisoner at his own residence, was negotiating with the rebels who by now control almost 50 percent of Yemen's territory.

A few hours later it became clear that Abedrabbo Mansour Hadi, who came to power following the Arab Spring in 2011, was unable to impose his will on his rivals, and a compromise that was reached between the parties resembled more a capitulation on behalf of the Yemeni regime. According to Yemeni news outlets, the Houthis agreed to withdraw fighters from areas overlooking the presidential residence and a missile base they had captured. For his part, the president agreed to cooperate with Houthi popular committees to amend the draft constitution, to implement the Peace and National Partnership Agreement and to seek immediate resolution to the security situation in the oil-rich province of Ma'arib.

To sum up, four years after the Arab Spring erupted, Abderabbo Mansour Hadi agreed to something that was unthinkable earlier – sharing power with the Shia rebels, strongly supported by Iran. The other possible option was continued fighting with the Houthis and probably total loss of control over the already unruly country.

But a few hours after the agreement was reached, Hadi was forced to resign along with the cabinet. Local media reported that Hadi had lost control over the intelligence and military agencies that cooperated with the US in the struggle against al-Qaida. Thus, regardless of the decision of Yemen's rich GCC neighbors fearful of having another Iranian base close to home, the country has been plunged into chaos.

Yemen was for decades nothing more than a source of cheap labor for GCC countries, a troubled and poor place, torn by war between south and north. In recent years it evolved into a hotbed of Sunni Islamist insurgency as well as energetic Iranian activity among the Yemeni Shiites of the Zaedi stream. The inability of the Yemeni regime to control the vast territory where many Salafi-Jihadi groups established their bases, and the attempt to achieve a secret pact with the Houthis despite their affiliation with Iran, along with the chaos and extreme poverty, turned Yemen into another Middle Eastern nightmare: on one side al-Qaida in the Arab Peninsula and on the other, Shiite rebels, sponsored by Iran.

Considering the important geo-location of Yemen that controls the southern entrance to the Arabian Sea, and the long border with Saudi Arabia, the country now resembles a mine field where it is impossible to move without setting it all off. In the past, a Saudi military intervention prevented a revolution in Bahrain, where the Shia majority had threatened to overthrow the king. There is no imminent danger to Bahrain's stability right now; Saudi security experts assume, however, that the country still sizzles with unrest. Yemen, given its size and topography, will prove much more difficult to handle for the Saudis than tiny Bahrain. The Saudis already had their share of trouble with Houthi rebels on their borders and suffered serious losses.

Intervention in Yemeni affairs is still on the table, but seems highly undesirable for the house of Saud that has its own problems - such as the Eastern province, densely populated with Shiites. For now it seems that if the GCC countries are unwilling to put boots on Yemeni ground, they will have to deal with increasing Iranian involvement in Yemen. The death of Saudi king Abdullah bin Abd al-Aziz also sent shock waves across Yemen. The late king was seen as an authority figure able to undertake powerful action; the new king – Salman bin Abd al-Aziz – is largely responsible for the failed Saudi policy in Yemen having been charged with the ministry of defense for the last few years.

Ironically, the advancement of the Houthis in Yemen is also bad news for the Salafi-Jihadi organizations which operate in the country. If the Houthis reach an accommodation with the central Yemeni authorities, these just might turn their focus to dealing with other enemies, such as al-Qaida. It's important to emphasize, however, that the internal fighting between Sunnis and Shiites will in no way contribute to the stabilization of the situation in Yemen, or in the Persian Gulf region in general – the chaos and anarchy provide fertile ground for terrorists who use this barren piece of land to strike important Western interests.

The al-Qaida of Yemen took the responsibility for the Charlie Hebdo terrorist attack, and it seems to be just its opening shot. Yemen has now become what was once Afghanistan and then Sudan – another hopeless place that was neglected for too long by its own authorities and by its rich neighbors, until it was too late. Today Yemen, torn by Iran loyalists and Salfi Jihadis is dangerous not only for the Middle East, including Israel, but for the whole world. As borders and authorities are being wiped out, global jihad takes over another strategic area.

Ksenia Svetlova is an Arab affairs analyst for Israel's Russian-language Channel 9 and a fellow at "Mitvim", the Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsCon...tia-fire-in-air-to-disperse-Sanaa-protes.aspx

UPDATED: Yemen militia fire in air to disperse Sanaa protest
AFP , Sunday 25 Jan 2015

Shiite militia fired warning shots Sunday to disperse a protest against their takeover of the Yemeni capital that has plunged the country into turmoil, witnesses said.

Several of the protesters who had gathered near Sanaa University were wounded while others were arrested by the militiamen, the witnesses said.

The militiamen also attacked journalists and smashed their cameras.

They deployed heavily around the university to prevent any new protests.

The Huthi militia, who have controlled most of the capital since last September, overran the presidential palace last week prompting President Abdrabuh Mansur Hadi to tender his resignation on Thursday, shortly after Prime Minister Khalid Bahah quit.

Thousands of Yemenis took to the streets of Sanaa on Saturday in the biggest protest yet against the Huthis.

The crisis in the Arabian Peninsula country escalated on January 17 when the Huthis seized Hadi's chief of staff, Ahmed Awad bin Mubarak, in an apparent bid to extract changes to a draft constitution they oppose.

The Huthis still hold Mubarak and maintain a tight grip on the capital despite a deal struck late on Wednesday to end what authorities called a coup attempt.

The fall of Hadi's Western-backed government would raise fears of complete chaos engulfing Yemen, strategically located next to oil-rich Saudi Arabia and on the key shipping route from the Suez Canal to the Gulf.

Oxfam warned Friday that 16 million people -- more than half the population -- were in need of aid in Yemen.

"A humanitarian crisis of extreme proportions is at risk of unfolding in the country if instability continues," the aid group said.
 
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