WEATHER Hurricane ISAIAS heading for East Florida coast.

Millwright

Knuckle Dragger
_______________
It looks like it will stay over DR & Cuba enough to stop major development.



ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Nine, located near the Leeward Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine are issued
under WMO header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4.
Forecast/Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine are issued
under WMO header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



 
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Keric4

Member
I am close to where it says 2AM Sun. Live 10 inland from the coast. Right now the local mets are calling for gusty winds and rain, nothing out of the ordinary unless the track shifts more west.
 

straightstreet

Life is better in flip flops

exiled2tx

Contributing Member
Despite my moniker, I'm guessing that I'm currently just south of Keric4. 5 miles from coast.

I went out this morning to top off the gas in one of the cars (the other was at 3/4s full already). Absolutely no line at the gas station so no observed panic. (Also only about 50% of the people wore masks but that is a different issue).

Talking to friends yesterday (before the overnight shift in course), no-one seemed concerned about this. I haven't made up my mind yet.
 

john70

Contributing Member
IT MAY RAIN IN FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND
SO
NO COVID-19 TESTING ANYWHERE IN THE STATE FRI, SAT, SUNDAY
MAY RESTART TESTING MONDAY IF IT IS NOT TO WET
 

Millwright

Knuckle Dragger
_______________
The track has been pushed east, off the coast a bit.

But...

There is another system near Affica.

 

packyderms_wife

Neither here nor there.
It's a hurricane now! Might want to put those shutters on those windows.


Hurricane Isaias heads toward Bahamas and Florida after battering Dominican Republic as a tropical storm
By Jason Hanna, CNN

Updated 2:15 PM ET, Fri July 31, 2020

Hurricane Isaias to impact Bahamas today with long-term plans to hit the US 02:06

(CNN)As a tropical storm, Isaias whipped Haiti and the Dominican Republic and left hundreds of thousands of people without power on Puerto Rico alone.

Now a hurricane, it's heading toward the Bahamas and Florida on Friday afternoon -- and may eventually have much of the US East Coast in its sights.

Isaias strengthened into a Category 1 hurricane late Thursday after crossing the Dominican Republic, and -- with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph -- was hitting the southernmost Bahamas islands with rain and wind Friday morning.


The hurricane is expected to slam the Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos with 4 to 8 inches of rain and leave potentially life-threatening flooding Friday and Saturday, the National Hurricane Center says.

Face mask and hand sanitizer added to hurricane preparedness checklist
Isaias' center then is expected to get close to Florida's east coast Saturday or Sunday -- a threat that has prompted the state to shut down some testing sites for Covid-19. Rains from outer bands could hit South Florida by Friday night.

South and east-central Florida could see 2 to 4 inches, with isolated totals of 6 inches, from Friday night through Monday, the NHC says.

Much of the Bahamas is under a hurricane warning.

A hurricane watch has been issued for parts of Florida's Atlantic coast -- from north of Deerfield Beach to the Volusia-Brevard County line -- an area including Boca Raton, West Palm Beach, Melbourne and the Space Coast.

An area from north of Ocean Reef to Sebastian Inlet, including Miami, is under a tropical storm warning.

And in coastal North Carolina, where winds of tropical storm force are possible Sunday night, officials have ordered a mandatory evacuation for Ocracoke Island. It starts at noon Friday for visitors and 6 a.m. Saturday for residents.

On Thursday, Isaias' exterior slammed Puerto Rico before it went over the Dominican Republic, all as a tropical storm. It left 300,000 to 400,000 people without power in Puerto Rico, National Weather Service San Juan meteorologist Gabriel Lojero told CNN.

It dropped 5 to 10 inches of rain, triggering flash floods and mudslides on the island, Lojero said. One woman went missing after her car was swept away, he said.

"A lot of neighborhoods were submerged under water," Lojero said.

More rain is expected Friday in the Dominican Republic and Haiti; by storm's end, up to 12 inches of rain could have accumulated in some areas there, the NHC said.
A man guides a tow truck under a downed power line pole after Tropical Storm Isaias affected the area in Mayaguez, Puerto Rico, on Thursday.


A man guides a tow truck under a downed power line pole after Tropical Storm Isaias affected the area in Mayaguez, Puerto Rico, on Thursday.

A storm threat during a pandemic

Florida closed some state-supported Covid-19 drive-thru and walk-up testing sites on Thursday in anticipation of the storm.

Hurricane categories and other terminology explained
Testing sites would remain open in 11 counties, nearly all of which are on the west coast or the Panhandle, the Florida Division of Emergency Management said.

The division said it anticipates all sites being opened by 8 a.m. August 5 at the latest.

The storm comes at a sensitive time during the coronavirus pandemic. Florida reported nearly 10,000 new Covid-19 cases Thursday, the highest total for one state on that day, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.

Miami-Dade County Mayor Carlos Giménez told CNN on Thursday he would be concerned about keeping evacuees socially distanced if a hurricane hit the state.

"Look, if we have a major hurricane here, then we're going to have to evacuate a number of people and then we're going to have to ... try to keep them separated as much as possible," he said. "That's a concern."

"When you're not testing is also a concern," he added. "But the greater danger, the immediate danger has to be taken care of first, and that's getting our people out of harm's way."

Fire and rescue workers cut the branches of a tree that fell under  heavy rain caused by Isaias in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, on Thursday.


Fire and rescue workers cut the branches of a tree that fell under heavy rain caused by Isaias in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, on Thursday.

Exactly where, and how intensely, it will affect the US is uncertain

Where Isaias will affect the US, and how intense it will be, was still uncertain Friday morning.

Some forecast models show the storm slowing down and coming very close to the Florida coast Saturday and Sunday before getting near the Carolinas on Monday and Tuesday. In contrast, others curve the hurricane away from Florida and directly toward the Carolinas.

Weather forecasts are less accurate because of Covid-19, a new study reveals
Either way, the storm could affect much of the US East Coast at some point into next week -- potentially bringing winds of tropical-storm strength as far north as Maine by early Wednesday.

"The details are not very clear at all, especially considering the track uncertainty, but there is a notable chance of a hurricane moving close to the US East Coast, so the forecast continues to show that scenario," the NHC said in a forecast discussion Friday morning.

"Interests along the entire US East Coast should monitor the progress of Isaias and updates to the forecast," the discussion continued.

Isaias -- pronounced (ees-ah-EE-as) -- is the Atlantic's earliest storm on record to begin with an "I." The previous record was set on August 7, 2005, part of the busiest season to date.

This continues the record-breaking pace of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season. It is the first time on record that the Atlantic basin had two hurricanes -- Isaias and Hurricane Hanna -- form in the last week of July, according to Philip Klotzbach, a Colorado State University research scientist.

CNN's Judson Jones, Sara Tonks, Madeline Holcombe, Dakin Andone, Joe Sutton, Hollie Silverman and Dianne Gallagher contributed to this report.
 

Millwright

Knuckle Dragger
_______________
Disturbance #2 is looking suspicious.


ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Isaias, located near the southeastern Bahamas.

1. Showers and thunderstorms remain separated from the center of a
small area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles east of
the Cabo Verde Islands. The system is moving northward toward less
favorable environmental conditions, and significant development of
this system appears unlikely.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

2. A westward-moving tropical wave located about 950 miles east of
the Lesser Antilles is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is
possible while it turns northwestward over the western Atlantic
by early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Brown




 

Keric4

Member
Palm Beach County: less than half the houses have shutters up. No panic at the grocery, at least first thing this morning. COVID testing suspended until Wednesday.
Son and I just got done putting shutters up. (St Lucie County). No one else in the neighborhood, that we can see (or hear drills) have put shutters up yet.. My area is calling for Tropical storm winds with gust up to 70 mph. That was at noon, May get a hurricane warning at 5.
 

TerryK

TB Fanatic
Here is the East Orlando area, not worried too much about wind and need for shutters.
Power in another story. Time to crank up the generator and fill the gas cans.
This storm promises to bring a break in the Covid crap so the change will be good for a couple of days.

How many of you guys down here in Florida still remember 2004 hurricane season?
 
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Keric4

Member
We were living in north Palm Beach County when Jeanne took off our roof. My inlaws came down right after Francis and so was their first experience. Water started pouring in and dh had the great idea to remove the toilet and we were able to push the incoming water down the hole. After that I made sure each of us had a helmet!
 

Thinwater

Firearms Manufacturer
Here is the East Orlando area, not worried too much about wind and need for shutters.
Power is another story. Time to crank up the generator and fill the gas cans.
This storm promises to bring a break in the Covid crap so the change will be good for a couple of days.

How many of you guys down here in Florida still remember 2004 hurricane season?
I am 1/2 way between you and the east coast, near DeLand. I have lived here my entire life and the tripple slam will never be forgotten. I was without grid power for 21 days total and about went without grocery money trying to keep the genny fed with very hard to get, overpriced gas.

The first fun thing was a 12" x 60' long pine tree across my drive way. The city had so many trees down that we could not respond to calls except by foot once we got off the main roads that were cleared first. I kept a chain saw in the trunk of my patrol car to cut a path to where I needed to go.
 

EYW

Veteran Member
How many of you guys down here in Florida still remember 2004 hurricane season?
I remember 2004 quite well as my kids were living in the Lakeland area and got every storm that crossed the state.

But, 2005, I was living in Key West -- Dennis, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma.
 

Kathy in FL

Has No Life - Lives on TB
I've been here for every hurricane since 1975. None of them has made me evac yet. Inconvenienced me, yes. Scared me? Eh, not really. Elena came close back in the 80s but it's Florida y'all. 'Canes are going to cane.

However, if you need to evac for the good Lord's sake, don't wait until the last minute. Consider it a drill for TEOTWAYKI. And play YOYO. It is a great way to shake out those bug out plans.
 

Peter

Contributing Member
Sunday night in St. Augustine should be fun! Kids like a little wind. I'd better finish patching stucco cracks tomorrow!
 

wab54

Veteran Member
I can guarauntee you that If you got to a shelter for a hurricane, you will never do that again. It will fill up with mammy and her 12 chilluns!! They demand to be taken care of.

WAB
 

Firebird

Veteran Member
I've been here for every hurricane since 1975. None of them has made me evac yet. Inconvenienced me, yes. Scared me? Eh, not really. Elena came close back in the 80s but it's Florida y'all. 'Canes are going to cane.

However, if you need to evac for the good Lord's sake, don't wait until the last minute. Consider it a drill for TEOTWAYKI. And play YOYO. It is a great way to shake out those bug out plans.
Only hurricane we ever evacuated for was Agnes, and that was because the military forcibly evacuated us.
 
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