ALERT Hezbollah, allies topple Lebanon government / Israel keeping close eye
Spirit Of Truth
Deceased
Clinton “discussed Lebanon tribunal” in Gulf
January 12, 2011
US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton held talks with Arab leaders to seek a consensus over a UN-backed probe into the murder of Lebanon's ex-Premier Rafik Hariri, a senior US official said on Wednesday.
The Shia movement Hezbollah and its allies resigned over the UN tribunal on Wednesday, toppling Lebanon's unity government as Prime Minister Saad Hariri was in Washington for talks with US President Barack Obama.
Clinton had held discussions with "the Egyptians, the Saudis, the French and others about having an international consensus about supporting Lebanon and the tribunal," the official said on board her plane as it flew to Qatar.
She planned to also "raise [Lebanon] with her counterparts in Doha," where she is expected to meet Gulf Cooperation Council officials, the official told reporters.
"There will be a certain urgency to the Lebanon question right now," the official added.
The US administration official said Hezbollah appeared intent on bringing down the government by constitutional means rather than by taking matters to the street.
"We've seen no signs of any attempts to mobilize the street," the official said.
On Friday in New York, Clinton had met Prime Minister Hariri, son of the slain premier, and the Saudi king to discuss the growing tensions in Lebanon.
For months, Lebanon has been at a political impasse over reports that the UN-backed tribunal is set to indict members of Hezbollah in connection with Hariri's assassination.
Hezbollah, which is backed by Syria and Iran, has warned it would not accept such an outcome and accuses The Hague-based tribunal of being part of a US-Israeli plot.
To read more: http://www.nowlebanon.com/NewsArticleDetails.aspx?ID=229555
January 12, 2011
US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton held talks with Arab leaders to seek a consensus over a UN-backed probe into the murder of Lebanon's ex-Premier Rafik Hariri, a senior US official said on Wednesday.
The Shia movement Hezbollah and its allies resigned over the UN tribunal on Wednesday, toppling Lebanon's unity government as Prime Minister Saad Hariri was in Washington for talks with US President Barack Obama.
Clinton had held discussions with "the Egyptians, the Saudis, the French and others about having an international consensus about supporting Lebanon and the tribunal," the official said on board her plane as it flew to Qatar.
She planned to also "raise [Lebanon] with her counterparts in Doha," where she is expected to meet Gulf Cooperation Council officials, the official told reporters.
"There will be a certain urgency to the Lebanon question right now," the official added.
The US administration official said Hezbollah appeared intent on bringing down the government by constitutional means rather than by taking matters to the street.
"We've seen no signs of any attempts to mobilize the street," the official said.
On Friday in New York, Clinton had met Prime Minister Hariri, son of the slain premier, and the Saudi king to discuss the growing tensions in Lebanon.
For months, Lebanon has been at a political impasse over reports that the UN-backed tribunal is set to indict members of Hezbollah in connection with Hariri's assassination.
Hezbollah, which is backed by Syria and Iran, has warned it would not accept such an outcome and accuses The Hague-based tribunal of being part of a US-Israeli plot.
To read more: http://www.nowlebanon.com/NewsArticleDetails.aspx?ID=229555
Brutus
Membership Revoked
We'll just agree to disagree, then.
I've never been convinced that Russia/China are all that concerned with establishing a casus belli against the West. For whose satisfaction would they be seeking a cb? Their own?
I've never believed that they really give a flying shit about political cover.
Spirit Of Truth
Deceased
We'll just agree to disagree, then.
I've never been convinced that Russia/China are all that concerned with establishing a casus belli against the West. For whose satisfaction would they be seeking a cb? Their own?
I've never believed that they really give a flying shit about political cover.
Then maybe you've not read much about Russian global strategy.
This is all about politics and ideology. War is a means to push a "point-of-view" on those who disagree.
Interestingly, there's been a significant uptick of traffic from Russia to my blog in recent hours. I better backup in case a hack attack is coming. Ideologically I'm the Kremlin's arch nemesis, except I don't use might to make right. My ultimate weapon is the truth.
Brutus
Membership Revoked
Jay, you're an idiot.
I've FORGOTTEN more about Russian global strategy than you know.
The very fact that you quote Clausewitz PROVES how stupid you are when it comes to how the Russians think.
Spirit Of Truth
Deceased
Jay, you're an idiot.
I've FORGOTTEN more about Russian global strategy than you know.
The very fact that you quote Clausewitz PROVES how stupid you are when it comes to how the Russians think.
Sorry....no use creating contention. My swipe was unnecessary and counter-productive.
I would refer you to Joseph Douglass Jr.'s "Soviet Strategy For Nuclear War". There's some key, related excerpts posted at:
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/showthread.php?t=374347
Haybails
When In Doubt, Throttle Out!
Jay, you're an idiot.
'Brutus',
Regardless of whether I agree with 'SOT' or not, I feel that your response was uncalled for, rude and even a bit childish.
There's no need for this discussion to devolve to immature name-calling.
HB
gillmanNSF
Veteran Member
Meanwhile, in Qatar -
Clinton: Lebanon crisis is effort to subvert justice
1.12.11
US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said Lebanon's coalition crisis on Wednesday was a transparent attempt to subvert justice but vowed that the work of the UN-backed special tribunal would continue.
"We view what happened today as a transparent effort by those forces inside Lebanon as well as interests outside Lebanon to subvert justice and undermine Lebanon's stability and progress," Clinton told a news conference in Doha, Qatar, where she is attending a meeting of regional leaders.
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4012904,00.html
Clinton: Lebanon crisis is effort to subvert justice
1.12.11
US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said Lebanon's coalition crisis on Wednesday was a transparent attempt to subvert justice but vowed that the work of the UN-backed special tribunal would continue.
"We view what happened today as a transparent effort by those forces inside Lebanon as well as interests outside Lebanon to subvert justice and undermine Lebanon's stability and progress," Clinton told a news conference in Doha, Qatar, where she is attending a meeting of regional leaders.
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4012904,00.html
Brutus
Membership Revoked
Sorry 'bails, but I'm done playing nice-nice with anyone deluded or evil enough to think he's the reincarnation of Jesus.
Spirit Of Truth
Deceased
Sorry 'bails, but I'm done playing nice-nice with anyone deluded or evil enough to think he's the reincarnation of Jesus.
Grow up. There's a larger cause to be addressed.
Brutus
Membership Revoked
Oh?
Your belief that you're Jesus reincarnated doesn't speak to your overall credibility?
Why should we listen to ANYONE who's as obviously crazy as you?
Haybails
When In Doubt, Throttle Out!
Oh?
Your belief that you're Jesus reincarnated doesn't speak to your overall credibility?
Why should we listen to ANYONE who's as obviously crazy as you?
!!OPEN CALL FOR A MODERATOR PLEASE!!
Can we get this thread back on topic please?
This thread has nothing to do with 'Brutus' or 'SOT'. This thread has to do with the apparent/potential unraveling currently taking place in Lebennon and therefore the Middle East.
I have nothing against 'Brutus', I'm not asking for punishment.
My thoughts on 'SOT' matter none at all.
Thank you,
HB
Spirit Of Truth
Deceased
That the truth has become incredible is not on account on my craziness, and I'll leave it at that.
Lebanon timeline: lead up to collapse
Here is a timeline of events leading up to the collapse of the Lebanese government
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...553/Lebanon-timeline-lead-up-to-collapse.html
5:30PM GMT 12 Jan 2011
2005 Feb 14: Rafiq Hariri, former prime minister, Lebanon's richest man and critic of Syria, is killed by a car bomb along with 22 others. A number of other high-profile anti-Syrian figures are also killed over the next three years. Huge anti-Syria street protests, known as the "Cedar Revolution", follow.
April: Syria pulls its troops out after a 29-year deployment despite denying responsibility.
October: An initial UN investigation implicates Syria in Hariri's murder.
Four Lebanese generals have already been arrested on suspicion of involvement.
2006 July-August: A 34-day war between Hizbollah and Israel kills nearly 1,200 Lebanese, mostly civilians, and 160 Israelis, mostly soldiers.
November: All Shia ministers, including two from Hizbollah, resign from government after failed talks over granting Hizbollah and its allies greater representation.
2007 June: The UN-backed Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) is created.
2008 May: A government attempt to weaken Hizbollah's growing power leads to sectarian clashes, killing more than 100. Eventually Qatar negotiates a power-sharing deal, with Hizbollah and its allies gaining veto power in the cabinet and the head of the army, Michel Suleiman, a Christian, becoming president. Fuad Siniora, a Sunni, becomes prime minister on July 11.
2009 April: The STL orders the release of the four Lebanese generals detained over the murder.
May: Hassan Nasrallah, Hizbollah's head, accuses Israel of being behind a report implicating his group in the murder.
June: The anti-Syrian parliamentary majority wins legislative elections.
Rafiq Hariri's son, Saad, is named prime minister, forming a national unity government in which Hizbollah has two ministers.
2010 March: Mr Nasrallah reveals Hizbollah members were questioned by UN interrogators as "witnesses," and warns his group will not "remain silent" if it is accused by the tribunal.
July: Mr Nasrallah says Mr Hariri informed him the tribunal would indict Hizbollah members.
October: Mr Nasrallah calls on Lebanese to boycott the STL and warns further co-operation is tantamount to attacking his party. The next month he threatens to "cut off the hand" of anyone who attempts to arrest a Hizbollah member over the murder. In December the tribunal says draft indictments would be prepared shortly but not made public.
2011 January: The Hizbollah-led alliance announces failure of Syrian-Saudi efforts to defuse the crisis, and forces the collapse of the government.
Lebanon timeline: lead up to collapse
Here is a timeline of events leading up to the collapse of the Lebanese government
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...553/Lebanon-timeline-lead-up-to-collapse.html
5:30PM GMT 12 Jan 2011
2005 Feb 14: Rafiq Hariri, former prime minister, Lebanon's richest man and critic of Syria, is killed by a car bomb along with 22 others. A number of other high-profile anti-Syrian figures are also killed over the next three years. Huge anti-Syria street protests, known as the "Cedar Revolution", follow.
April: Syria pulls its troops out after a 29-year deployment despite denying responsibility.
October: An initial UN investigation implicates Syria in Hariri's murder.
Four Lebanese generals have already been arrested on suspicion of involvement.
2006 July-August: A 34-day war between Hizbollah and Israel kills nearly 1,200 Lebanese, mostly civilians, and 160 Israelis, mostly soldiers.
November: All Shia ministers, including two from Hizbollah, resign from government after failed talks over granting Hizbollah and its allies greater representation.
2007 June: The UN-backed Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) is created.
2008 May: A government attempt to weaken Hizbollah's growing power leads to sectarian clashes, killing more than 100. Eventually Qatar negotiates a power-sharing deal, with Hizbollah and its allies gaining veto power in the cabinet and the head of the army, Michel Suleiman, a Christian, becoming president. Fuad Siniora, a Sunni, becomes prime minister on July 11.
2009 April: The STL orders the release of the four Lebanese generals detained over the murder.
May: Hassan Nasrallah, Hizbollah's head, accuses Israel of being behind a report implicating his group in the murder.
June: The anti-Syrian parliamentary majority wins legislative elections.
Rafiq Hariri's son, Saad, is named prime minister, forming a national unity government in which Hizbollah has two ministers.
2010 March: Mr Nasrallah reveals Hizbollah members were questioned by UN interrogators as "witnesses," and warns his group will not "remain silent" if it is accused by the tribunal.
July: Mr Nasrallah says Mr Hariri informed him the tribunal would indict Hizbollah members.
October: Mr Nasrallah calls on Lebanese to boycott the STL and warns further co-operation is tantamount to attacking his party. The next month he threatens to "cut off the hand" of anyone who attempts to arrest a Hizbollah member over the murder. In December the tribunal says draft indictments would be prepared shortly but not made public.
2011 January: The Hizbollah-led alliance announces failure of Syrian-Saudi efforts to defuse the crisis, and forces the collapse of the government.
Spirit Of Truth
Deceased
Updates from Naharnet ticker:
9:20pm British Foreign Secretary William Hague on March 8 ministers resignation: This is an extremely serious development which could have grave implications for Lebanon and for regional stability."
9:10pm U.N. chief Ban Ki-moon stressed the importance of preserving calm in Lebanon, calling for "continuing dialogue among all parties and respect for the constitution and the laws of Lebanon."
8:10pm Qatari PM Sheikh Hamad bin Jassem al-Thani: We're not thinking of a "Doha 2" accord to solve the crisis, but rather of activating "Doha 1" and the Taef Accord.
8:06pm U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said that Hizbullah's move was designed to "subvert justice" and undermine stability, stressing that it "won't work."
7:41pm Information obtained by Al-Manar: The president won't issue tonight a decree asking Hariri to lead a caretaker cabinet because it is an unethical step given the fact that Hariri is outside the country.
9:20pm British Foreign Secretary William Hague on March 8 ministers resignation: This is an extremely serious development which could have grave implications for Lebanon and for regional stability."
9:10pm U.N. chief Ban Ki-moon stressed the importance of preserving calm in Lebanon, calling for "continuing dialogue among all parties and respect for the constitution and the laws of Lebanon."
8:10pm Qatari PM Sheikh Hamad bin Jassem al-Thani: We're not thinking of a "Doha 2" accord to solve the crisis, but rather of activating "Doha 1" and the Taef Accord.
8:06pm U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said that Hizbullah's move was designed to "subvert justice" and undermine stability, stressing that it "won't work."
7:41pm Information obtained by Al-Manar: The president won't issue tonight a decree asking Hariri to lead a caretaker cabinet because it is an unethical step given the fact that Hariri is outside the country.
Last edited:
night driver
ESFP adrift in INTJ sea
For u s who are historically challenged:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doha_Agreement
and
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taif_Agreement
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doha_Agreement
and
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taif_Agreement
Reading up on Lebanon's constitutional law and it looks like it may be a long while before a new government is in place. Outside of the basic .gov funtions, nothing is going to get done. This is IMO only going to increase the likelihood of violence. Already enough social tensions between the Shia, Sunni and Christian groups, add to that they will have a non-functioning .gov and you can see why the Lebanese are a little concerned.
Also, notice that the celebrating was being done in Shia neighborhoods and the tense atmoshpere was in the Sunni neighborhoods.
The government collapses
1/12/11
Simon Salame, a Constitutional Law professor at the Lebanese University’s law school in Jal al-Dib, told NOW Lebanon that the parliament must now meet, and the president will have to poll the 128-member body to reach consensus on naming a new prime minister.
Once a new prime minister is found, negotiations over forming a new government can begin, Salame said, noting that, as after the summer 2009 elections, this can take months. He said state institutions will continue to function at the most basic levels, but no new decisions, laws or decrees can be passed or made until a new government is formed.
From NOW Lebanon’s office in Dekwaneh, a suburb of Beirut, the sound of fireworks could be heard following the government’s dissolution. In Beirut’s Bourj Abi Haidar neighborhood, residents told NOW Lebanon that the atmosphere felt stressful, similar to when clashes broke out between supporters of Hezbollah and the predominantly Sunni Islamist organization Al-Ahbash in the area in August 2010.
Mohammad Dah, 20, an argileh shop owner, told NOW Lebanon, “Our business is very good in this situation because everyone is at home. They have no jobs, nothing, so they call us [to deliver water pipes]. Everyone is talking a lot. They’re saying today fighting will happen.”
Ahmad Noureddine, 25, told NOW Lebanon, “We think it will go back to what it was like in 1975, and there will be war between the Muslims and Christians, just like what happened in Sudan and Egypt.”
Rania, 30, who preferred not to give her last name, said, “It’s something very different. It’s a miserable situation, but I don’t know what will happen.”
http://www.nowlebanon.com/NewsArticleDetails.aspx?ID=229611
Also, notice that the celebrating was being done in Shia neighborhoods and the tense atmoshpere was in the Sunni neighborhoods.
The government collapses
1/12/11
Simon Salame, a Constitutional Law professor at the Lebanese University’s law school in Jal al-Dib, told NOW Lebanon that the parliament must now meet, and the president will have to poll the 128-member body to reach consensus on naming a new prime minister.
Once a new prime minister is found, negotiations over forming a new government can begin, Salame said, noting that, as after the summer 2009 elections, this can take months. He said state institutions will continue to function at the most basic levels, but no new decisions, laws or decrees can be passed or made until a new government is formed.
From NOW Lebanon’s office in Dekwaneh, a suburb of Beirut, the sound of fireworks could be heard following the government’s dissolution. In Beirut’s Bourj Abi Haidar neighborhood, residents told NOW Lebanon that the atmosphere felt stressful, similar to when clashes broke out between supporters of Hezbollah and the predominantly Sunni Islamist organization Al-Ahbash in the area in August 2010.
Mohammad Dah, 20, an argileh shop owner, told NOW Lebanon, “Our business is very good in this situation because everyone is at home. They have no jobs, nothing, so they call us [to deliver water pipes]. Everyone is talking a lot. They’re saying today fighting will happen.”
Ahmad Noureddine, 25, told NOW Lebanon, “We think it will go back to what it was like in 1975, and there will be war between the Muslims and Christians, just like what happened in Sudan and Egypt.”
Rania, 30, who preferred not to give her last name, said, “It’s something very different. It’s a miserable situation, but I don’t know what will happen.”
http://www.nowlebanon.com/NewsArticleDetails.aspx?ID=229611
Spirit Of Truth
Deceased
Seems like this is a Hezbollah 'shot across the bow' toward the U.S. regarding the STL indictments. Word was these indictments were set to be released, but by inciting the potential for civil war in Lebanon once again, Hezbollah is making it clear what the consequences of proceeding will be. Quite frankly, the best approach to this would be sealed indictments and then use special ops to sweep up those indicted swiftly one day once Hezbollah is off-guard and the targets are all vulnerable. Of course, even then you'll still be dealing with a violent Hezbollah backlash.
Hezbollah, and this means the organization's Iranian and Syrian backers, are placing their cards on the table up front. The U.S. has to determine whether or not it wants to thrust itself into the middle of a Lebanese civil war that could ultimately mean being in conflict with Syria and Iran, never mind the fact the Israel will not sit idly by as chaos unfolds on its northern border.
This has been the case all along and quite frankly the U.S. is not being very smart about the situation on a tactical level, never mind the strategic level. Again, throw Russia and China into the equation and the U.S. is walking into self-destruction on this, so back away and carefully reconsider your approach.
The assassination of Rafic Hariri calls for justice, but so do many issues. Walking into a trigger for World War Three is not the proper move. If U.S. intelligence could perceive how this linked to Korea being brought to the brink, then maybe there'd be a chance to postpone the long-planned checkmate move against the West. Unfortunately, the odds of this are likely nil.
Brutus
Membership Revoked
I don't think this so-called "collapse" of the Lebanese gov't amounts to all that much.
Hezbollah is and has been for umpteen years now pretty much able to use Lebanese territory at it's whim, whenever and for whatever purpose.
Now, most likely, Hezbollah will end up "officially" in charge of the country, with a Hezzie prime minister and Hezzie majority in the parliament.
Nothing about Lebanon's gov't before now has prevented Hezbollah from attacking Israel, stockpiling weapons, buddying up with Syria and Iran, etc. Whatever occasions Hezbollah has let pass when it might have attacked Israel, etc. has simply been decisions of its own accord.
Lebanon's gov't was never able to shut down or control Hezbollah in the past, so what difference will any of this latest hub-bub make?
Hezbollah is and has been for umpteen years now pretty much able to use Lebanese territory at it's whim, whenever and for whatever purpose.
Now, most likely, Hezbollah will end up "officially" in charge of the country, with a Hezzie prime minister and Hezzie majority in the parliament.
Nothing about Lebanon's gov't before now has prevented Hezbollah from attacking Israel, stockpiling weapons, buddying up with Syria and Iran, etc. Whatever occasions Hezbollah has let pass when it might have attacked Israel, etc. has simply been decisions of its own accord.
Lebanon's gov't was never able to shut down or control Hezbollah in the past, so what difference will any of this latest hub-bub make?
twincougars
Deceased
Lebanon reels as Hezbollah topples government
Alarm among neighbours and US after opposition pulls out of coalition as UN prepares to name suspects in 2005 killing
Alarm among neighbours and US after opposition pulls out of coalition as UN prepares to name suspects in 2005 killing
- Martin Chulov
- guardian.co.uk, Wednesday 12 January 2011 21.15 GMT <li class="history">Article history
The Lebanese government led by Saad Hariri has collapsed after Hezbollah removed its ministers from the administration. Photograph: Jason Reed/Reuters Arab states, the US and Israel reacted with alarm to the collapse tonightof Lebanon's western-backed government, which threatens to plunge the fragile country into further chaos and stoke simmering sectarian tensions.
The 18-month-old government fell after the Hezbollah-led opposition pulled its ministers from prime minister Saad Hariri's administration. Hezbollah and its allies pulled out in reaction to Hariri's refusal to convene the cabinet to discuss how to deal with the naming of suspects in the killing of his father.
However, it had been agitating for at least three months for a new administration, which would help it confront the imminent issuing of indictments by a UN-backed tribunal that are expected to implicate at least three members of Hezbollah in the 2005 bombing on the Beirut waterfront.
The announcement was timed to coincide with the start of a meeting at the White House between Hariri and the US president, Barack Obama. It also followed the apparent breakdown of an initiative by Saudi Arabia and Syria to strike a compromise between Hariri's bloc and the Hezbollah-led opposition, which formed a tenuous unity government amid heightened sectarian tensions three years ago.
All 10 opposition ministers resigned, along with Adnan Sayyed Hussein, a minister aligned to Lebanon's president. His resignation was crucial because it meant more than one-third of the cabinet had quit – a move that meets a constitutional threshold to cause the fall of the government.
The energy minister, Jebran Bassil, fronted an evening press conference of all 10 opposition MPs at which he said Hariri must choose between "Beirut or Washington, or Beirut and any other capital".
Hariri tonightcut short his US visit and was planning to meet the French president, Nicolas Sarkozy, on his way home to Lebanon, where he will attempt to manage the crisis. He is expected to be named as caretaker prime minister while a new cabinet is formed.
The US secretary of state, Hillary Clinton, said the Hezbollah move was an attempt to "subvert justice" that would not work. The US fears that the opposition will attempt to gain control over any new cabinet and use it to cut Lebanon's share of funding for the tribunal and to delegitimise its findings.
Both sides had traded regular barbs over loyalty, with Hariri's bloc claiming that the opposition takes its instructions from Iran and Syria.
The foreign secretary, William Hague, called on all sides to resolve the impasse, saying: "Justice needs to be done and there must be an end to impunity for political assassinations in Lebanon."
Hezbollah's leader, Hassan Nasrallah, had been threatening to disrupt the government ever since he claimed to have received advice from the UN-backed special tribunal for Lebanon that several of his members were likely to be indicted for the assassination.
Nasrallah has described the indictments as a plot to discredit himself and Hezbollah. The release of the indictments was due in December, according to numerous Lebanese officials, but was thought to have been delayed as part of regional efforts to broker a face-saving deal.
Any compromise that meant Hariri's alleged killers would not face trial was vehemently opposed by Washington. It is understood that the US stance was instrumental in the breakdown of the so-called Saudi-Syrian initiative, which had been seen by Hezbollah as the most likely way to defuse tensions.
Hezbollah ministers had resigned from the last Lebanese government, led by Fouad Siniora, which was paralysed for 18 months after Hezbollah fought Israel during a devastating war in the summer of 2006.
Throughout the standoff that followed, Hezbollah and its backers had demanded a bigger say in the affairs of state. Decision-making was crippled throughout 2007 and tensions finally spilled over into street battles, which saw Hezbollah overrun the streets of west Beirut and clash with Druze forces in the mountains. Three days of battles left more than 80 people dead. In the aftermath, a Qatar-brokered deal saw a government formed. However, Hariri conceded to the opposition a veto over most decisions and had since struggled to establish his authority.
Hezbollah's opponents, who also include Sunni Arab states, have long viewed the militant group as acting largely in the interests of its two regional backers, Iran and Syria, both of which are often at odds with the Sunni Muslim world, especially Saudi Arabia and Egypt.
Hezbollah has for the past three months sustained a heated campaign against the UN tribunal, which it says was tricked by conspirators acting on behalf of the US and Israel. Investigators had earlier alleged Syria was behind the killing of Hariri, a claim from which it has not publicly resiled despite the forthcoming indictments.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jan/12/lebanon-reels-hezbollah-topples-government?CMP=twt_iph
I don't think this so-called "collapse" of the Lebanese gov't amounts to all that much.
Hezbollah is and has been for umpteen years now pretty much able to use Lebanese territory at it's whim, whenever and for whatever purpose.
Now, most likely, Hezbollah will end up "officially" in charge of the country, with a Hezzie prime minister and Hezzie majority in the parliament.
Nothing about Lebanon's gov't before now has prevented Hezbollah from attacking Israel, stockpiling weapons, buddying up with Syria and Iran, etc. Whatever occasions Hezbollah has let pass when it might have attacked Israel, etc. has simply been decisions of its own accord.
Lebanon's gov't was never able to shut down or control Hezbollah in the past, so what difference will any of this latest hub-bub make?
Couple of points -
1) "Hezbollah is and has been for umpteen years now pretty much able to use Lebanese territory at it's whim, whenever and for whatever purpose."
A tacit fact that Israel has lived with as acceptable
2) "Now, most likely, Hezbollah will end up "officially" in charge of the country, with a Hezzie prime minister and Hezzie majority in the parliament."
A potential reality that Israel may/may not find acceptable
3) "Lebanon's gov't was never able to shut down or control Hezbollah in the past, so what difference will any of this latest hub-bub make?"
False. Prior to 2000, Hezbollah was a minor player. Even after their "successful" war in 2006 they did not have carte blanche power within Lebanon. Look at Aug 08' - yes, they temporarily shut down Beirut, but went toe to toe with Sunni groups all over the country and both sides got bloodied. And the LAF sat that out. I bet if Hezbollah pisses off the Sunni and opposing Chrisitian groups enough we may see a replay of the 75-90 civil war (a time during which both Israel and Syria invaded on more than one occassion and left Syria an occupying power for a number of years)
Nothingburger me thinks not
Arab League: Lebanon at risk of civil war
Arab League chief urges calm amid Lebanon crisis; Toppling of government by Hezbollah internal Lebanese affair, Israeli official says, but Jerusalem keeping close eye on developments in neighboring country
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4012894,00.html
Arab League chief urges calm amid Lebanon crisis; Toppling of government by Hezbollah internal Lebanese affair, Israeli official says, but Jerusalem keeping close eye on developments in neighboring country
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4012894,00.html
Spirit Of Truth
Deceased
Hezbollah, with Iran and Syria's backing and training, is the preeminent military power in Lebanon now. If they want control, the Lebanese Army could not stop them IMHO. Indeed, maybe the reason Syria backed out of Lebanon was a concession to Iran in that this opened the way for Hezbollah to be made boss there.
Spirit Of Truth
Deceased
pRUSSIAN?
Nevertheless, this is the general logic of Kremlin strategists IMHO, i.e., military force is used to achieve ideological, political and economic aims. Not sure why this is such a contentious point.
SarahLynn
Veteran Member
I agree with this analysis. The trip wire could be at any time. I believe it will be a war that could draw in international players-but the time is not quite right for Armageddon-like proportions, as there is no peace treaty signed yet with Israel, and Israel is not living "peacefully and securely without walls or gates."
This may well be the war which will convince the world that we need a World Government, One World Religion, and One All Wise All Powerful Leader, or we could see a few more similar crises of escalating proportions until we get to that place. At any rate, that is the scenario the Scriptures point to and I believe we are well on the way.
BTW...has anyone remembered and heard anything about that HUGE U.S. base that was built somewhere in the middle of Israel a few years back?
It would be interesting to know the ultimate purpose of that!
Reborn
Seeking Aslan's Country
SarahLynn, I remember. It was all over the web for awhile but I haven't heard anything more about it for a long time now.
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/showthread.php?t=157665
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/showthread.php?t=157665
Ragnarok
On and On, South of Heaven
Dude...I know you are smarter than that.
Prussia was the old German empire. Germans and Russians mix like oil and water.
Spirit Of Truth
Deceased
Lebanon, the Berlin Wall of the new Cold War
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/r.../lebanon-the-berlin-wall-of-the-new-cold-war/
JANUARY 12, 2011 ⋅ 8:37 PM
Lebanon is becoming the Berlin Wall of the new Cold War: the frightening, potentially nuclear proxy struggle between allies of the West and Iran.
The West came to West Berlin’s short-term rescue with the 1948 airlift, but then could do little but stand and watch as the Soviet Union boxed Germany’s former capital into a corner for four decades.
Now Lebanon’s democratically elected government has had its legs taken away from under it by Hizbollah, Iran’s local front organisation. The country faces its own division, stand-off and stagnation, if not worse.
Like Berlin after the Second World War, Lebanon is a fractured place, with the major world powers – in this case, the US, Saudi Arabia and Iran/Syria – having their own local front men.
Saad Hariri, the prime minister, inherited the country’s largest fortune when his father, Rafiq, was murdered in 2005. His enemies were Syria and Hizbollah: both have been blamed. Hariri, a Sunni, made his fortune in Saudi Arabia which has backed him and then his son ever since. The Saudis, of course, loathe Iran.
Hariri’s not without support. He won the last election – though, rather like Northern Ireland, that only has the effect of rearranging the seats around the power-sharing cabinet table. He has majority support from Middle Eastern governments, including the big Gulf oil players. And, of course, he has America behind him.
Hizbollah made itself extremely popular after taking on Israel in 2006. But that popularity may have peaked – many Lebanese and others can see the danger of having a separate armed militia pursuing its own agenda. No-one wants a civil war, while if starts a conflict with Israel, it won’t exactly be taking a vote from the people who will be on the receiving end of Israeli air force strikes.
Scaremongers say that war would bring in Syria on its side – but does Syria, which has good self-preservatory instincts these days, really think that is a good idea?
And the United Nations tribunal which is the pretext for the latest row is said to have very good circumstantial evidence that Hizbollah played a key role in the 2005 killing, even if the evidence against individual members is likely to be less clear-cut. That would be a huge embarrassment for its growing regional credibility, which has depended on its being carefully ambiguous about exactly when it has been prepared to use terrorism to further its ends.
But a wounded Hizbollah is a dangerous tool in the hands of Iran, which is clearly desperate to distract domestic attention from sanctions, economic crisis and growing evidence that Israel and maybe the US have successfully sabotaged its uranium enrichment programme. The talk is constantly of a new confrontation with Israel, but a constant stand-off with America across the world is perhaps more likely.
If you consider that Iran’s allies include the likes of North Korea, you can see what that means: repeated, near-miss flare-ups, in Gaza one week, in Korea the next, a Beirut suburb next. Moqtada al-Sadr, the Shia militia leader who has just returned to Iraq full of fire and fury about getting rid of the Americans, is a fully-fledged Iranian loyalist now if he wasn’t always. Iran’s role in Afghanistan, and as host to al-Qaeda refugees, is as unpredictable as it is important.
Like the Cold War, these flare-ups do more damage to the West than you might think. They cause internal political strife, and they interfere with relationships such as with China – a quasi-ally of Iran and fully paid-up one of North Korea – that are vital to our economic well-being.
When the Berlin Wall fell, it was curtains for the Soviet Union, so that’s one bit of good news. But how long can we, and Lebanon, stay patient?
----
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/r.../lebanon-the-berlin-wall-of-the-new-cold-war/
JANUARY 12, 2011 ⋅ 8:37 PM
Lebanon is becoming the Berlin Wall of the new Cold War: the frightening, potentially nuclear proxy struggle between allies of the West and Iran.
The West came to West Berlin’s short-term rescue with the 1948 airlift, but then could do little but stand and watch as the Soviet Union boxed Germany’s former capital into a corner for four decades.
Now Lebanon’s democratically elected government has had its legs taken away from under it by Hizbollah, Iran’s local front organisation. The country faces its own division, stand-off and stagnation, if not worse.
Like Berlin after the Second World War, Lebanon is a fractured place, with the major world powers – in this case, the US, Saudi Arabia and Iran/Syria – having their own local front men.
Saad Hariri, the prime minister, inherited the country’s largest fortune when his father, Rafiq, was murdered in 2005. His enemies were Syria and Hizbollah: both have been blamed. Hariri, a Sunni, made his fortune in Saudi Arabia which has backed him and then his son ever since. The Saudis, of course, loathe Iran.
Hariri’s not without support. He won the last election – though, rather like Northern Ireland, that only has the effect of rearranging the seats around the power-sharing cabinet table. He has majority support from Middle Eastern governments, including the big Gulf oil players. And, of course, he has America behind him.
Hizbollah made itself extremely popular after taking on Israel in 2006. But that popularity may have peaked – many Lebanese and others can see the danger of having a separate armed militia pursuing its own agenda. No-one wants a civil war, while if starts a conflict with Israel, it won’t exactly be taking a vote from the people who will be on the receiving end of Israeli air force strikes.
Scaremongers say that war would bring in Syria on its side – but does Syria, which has good self-preservatory instincts these days, really think that is a good idea?
And the United Nations tribunal which is the pretext for the latest row is said to have very good circumstantial evidence that Hizbollah played a key role in the 2005 killing, even if the evidence against individual members is likely to be less clear-cut. That would be a huge embarrassment for its growing regional credibility, which has depended on its being carefully ambiguous about exactly when it has been prepared to use terrorism to further its ends.
But a wounded Hizbollah is a dangerous tool in the hands of Iran, which is clearly desperate to distract domestic attention from sanctions, economic crisis and growing evidence that Israel and maybe the US have successfully sabotaged its uranium enrichment programme. The talk is constantly of a new confrontation with Israel, but a constant stand-off with America across the world is perhaps more likely.
If you consider that Iran’s allies include the likes of North Korea, you can see what that means: repeated, near-miss flare-ups, in Gaza one week, in Korea the next, a Beirut suburb next. Moqtada al-Sadr, the Shia militia leader who has just returned to Iraq full of fire and fury about getting rid of the Americans, is a fully-fledged Iranian loyalist now if he wasn’t always. Iran’s role in Afghanistan, and as host to al-Qaeda refugees, is as unpredictable as it is important.
Like the Cold War, these flare-ups do more damage to the West than you might think. They cause internal political strife, and they interfere with relationships such as with China – a quasi-ally of Iran and fully paid-up one of North Korea – that are vital to our economic well-being.
When the Berlin Wall fell, it was curtains for the Soviet Union, so that’s one bit of good news. But how long can we, and Lebanon, stay patient?
----
The Flying Dutchman
Deceased
=
For Fair Use: Discussion
THE collapse of Lebanon’s government on Tuesday signaled the final stage in Hezbollah’s rise from resistance group to ruling power. While Hezbollah technically remains the head of the political opposition in Beirut, make no mistake: the Party of God has fully consolidated its control in Lebanon, and will stop at nothing — including civil war — to protect its position.
The crisis was precipitated by Hezbollah’s opposition to a United Nations-backed tribunal investigating the 2005 assassination of a former prime minister, Rafik Hariri. Some analysts speculate that the current Lebanese government — led by Prime Minister Saad Hariri, the assassinated man’s son — could stabilize the political situation by rejecting the legitimacy of the tribunal.
Mr. Hariri really has no choice but to stand firm in Hezbollah’s game of chicken: even if he could stymie Hezbollah in the short term by giving in, he would eventually have no authority at all were he to abandon the rule of law. He will have to insist on accountability for his father’s assassins, even if he loses his position in the process. His coalition remains a viable alternative to Hezbollah only as long as it sticks to the pluralistic and law-based values that distinguish it from its theocratic and belligerent enemies.
Today’s predicament in Lebanon mirrors that of much of the Arab world, where stability often comes at the price of justice. Furthermore, it highlights America’s limited influence. Washington lent strong rhetorical support to the Hariri coalition when it came first to power in 2005, but was unable to stop Hezbollah’s troops and their supporters from taking over the streets of Beirut and forcibly acquiring veto power over the government by gaining “the blocking third” — 10 of the cabinet’s 30 ministerial seats.
It was Hezbollah’s exercising of that power, with the resignation of the 10 opposition ministers along with one independent, that toppled the government this week just when Prime Minister Hariri was meeting with President Obama in Washington.
To an outsider, the crisis might appear baffling. More than five years after the car-bomb murder of Rafik Hariri, the international tribunal is still meandering its way toward indicting suspects. Hezbollah, re-armed and resurgent after the war with Israel in the summer of 2006, has had a string of political and popular victories. The influence of its sponsors, Syria and Iran, has only grown. And talks between Syria and Saudi Arabia that might have stabilized the government fell apart this week.
Why, then, would Hezbollah change the political dynamic now?
Simply put, Hezbollah cannot afford the blow to its popular legitimacy that would occur if it is pinned with the Hariri killing. The group’s power depends on the unconditional backing of its roughly 1 million supporters. Its constituents are the only audience that matters to Hezbollah, which styles itself as sole protector of Arab dignity from humiliation by Israel and the United States.
These supporters will be hard-pressed to understand, much less forgive, their party if it is proved to have killed a leader who was loved by the nation’s Sunni Muslims and also respected by Christians, Druze and even many Shiites, who form Hezbollah’s core support. That is why Hezbollah denies any role in the assassination even though it has unabashedly taken responsibility for destabilizing moves like setting off the 2006 war with Israel or pushing Lebanon to the brink of civil war in 2008.
But its excuses are wearing thin. Leaked evidence based on cellphone records has placed a Hezbollah team at the scene of the assassination. Hezbollah’s leaders insist that its men were trying to protect Rafik Hariri, and that Israel was behind the killing. But if it is proved to have taken part in the Hariri hit and assassination campaigns against other moderate Lebanese figures, Hezbollah will look to many civilians like just another power-drunk militant movement.
What options remain for the younger Mr. Hariri? He leads a fractious and shrinking coalition that in 2009 won a majority of seats in Parliament but got fewer votes than Hezbollah and its allies. Yet his best strategy is simple, if he has the stomach for it: stick with the tribunal and let it air its evidence at trial.
It will be up to the international prosecutors to furnish compelling evidence that Hezbollah (or its Syrian backers) killed Rafik Hariri. For now, the prime minister must insist more convincingly that he trusts the process to be fair: If Hezbollah is innocent, it will be exonerated at trial; if it is guilty, then why should it escape?
The odds of this strategy succeeding are not great: Hezbollah is likely to emerge the end winner because it is willing to sacrifice the Lebanese state to maintain its standing in the Middle East and its perpetual war against Israel. But Lebanon’s lonely prime minister has no better choice than to play the long shot for a just resolution; otherwise, he’ll become a steward of Hezbollah’s impunity
=
For Fair Use: Discussion
Hezbollah’s Latest Suicide Mission
By Thanassis Cambanis
Published: January 12, 2011
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/13/opinion/13cambanis.html?_r=1&src=twrhp
By Thanassis Cambanis
Published: January 12, 2011
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/13/opinion/13cambanis.html?_r=1&src=twrhp
THE collapse of Lebanon’s government on Tuesday signaled the final stage in Hezbollah’s rise from resistance group to ruling power. While Hezbollah technically remains the head of the political opposition in Beirut, make no mistake: the Party of God has fully consolidated its control in Lebanon, and will stop at nothing — including civil war — to protect its position.
The crisis was precipitated by Hezbollah’s opposition to a United Nations-backed tribunal investigating the 2005 assassination of a former prime minister, Rafik Hariri. Some analysts speculate that the current Lebanese government — led by Prime Minister Saad Hariri, the assassinated man’s son — could stabilize the political situation by rejecting the legitimacy of the tribunal.
Mr. Hariri really has no choice but to stand firm in Hezbollah’s game of chicken: even if he could stymie Hezbollah in the short term by giving in, he would eventually have no authority at all were he to abandon the rule of law. He will have to insist on accountability for his father’s assassins, even if he loses his position in the process. His coalition remains a viable alternative to Hezbollah only as long as it sticks to the pluralistic and law-based values that distinguish it from its theocratic and belligerent enemies.
Today’s predicament in Lebanon mirrors that of much of the Arab world, where stability often comes at the price of justice. Furthermore, it highlights America’s limited influence. Washington lent strong rhetorical support to the Hariri coalition when it came first to power in 2005, but was unable to stop Hezbollah’s troops and their supporters from taking over the streets of Beirut and forcibly acquiring veto power over the government by gaining “the blocking third” — 10 of the cabinet’s 30 ministerial seats.
It was Hezbollah’s exercising of that power, with the resignation of the 10 opposition ministers along with one independent, that toppled the government this week just when Prime Minister Hariri was meeting with President Obama in Washington.
To an outsider, the crisis might appear baffling. More than five years after the car-bomb murder of Rafik Hariri, the international tribunal is still meandering its way toward indicting suspects. Hezbollah, re-armed and resurgent after the war with Israel in the summer of 2006, has had a string of political and popular victories. The influence of its sponsors, Syria and Iran, has only grown. And talks between Syria and Saudi Arabia that might have stabilized the government fell apart this week.
Why, then, would Hezbollah change the political dynamic now?
Simply put, Hezbollah cannot afford the blow to its popular legitimacy that would occur if it is pinned with the Hariri killing. The group’s power depends on the unconditional backing of its roughly 1 million supporters. Its constituents are the only audience that matters to Hezbollah, which styles itself as sole protector of Arab dignity from humiliation by Israel and the United States.
These supporters will be hard-pressed to understand, much less forgive, their party if it is proved to have killed a leader who was loved by the nation’s Sunni Muslims and also respected by Christians, Druze and even many Shiites, who form Hezbollah’s core support. That is why Hezbollah denies any role in the assassination even though it has unabashedly taken responsibility for destabilizing moves like setting off the 2006 war with Israel or pushing Lebanon to the brink of civil war in 2008.
But its excuses are wearing thin. Leaked evidence based on cellphone records has placed a Hezbollah team at the scene of the assassination. Hezbollah’s leaders insist that its men were trying to protect Rafik Hariri, and that Israel was behind the killing. But if it is proved to have taken part in the Hariri hit and assassination campaigns against other moderate Lebanese figures, Hezbollah will look to many civilians like just another power-drunk militant movement.
What options remain for the younger Mr. Hariri? He leads a fractious and shrinking coalition that in 2009 won a majority of seats in Parliament but got fewer votes than Hezbollah and its allies. Yet his best strategy is simple, if he has the stomach for it: stick with the tribunal and let it air its evidence at trial.
It will be up to the international prosecutors to furnish compelling evidence that Hezbollah (or its Syrian backers) killed Rafik Hariri. For now, the prime minister must insist more convincingly that he trusts the process to be fair: If Hezbollah is innocent, it will be exonerated at trial; if it is guilty, then why should it escape?
The odds of this strategy succeeding are not great: Hezbollah is likely to emerge the end winner because it is willing to sacrifice the Lebanese state to maintain its standing in the Middle East and its perpetual war against Israel. But Lebanon’s lonely prime minister has no better choice than to play the long shot for a just resolution; otherwise, he’ll become a steward of Hezbollah’s impunity
=
Spirit Of Truth
Deceased
China Connection
TB Fanatic
Dear Leader is getting impatient in North Korea for the ball to stat rolling in the Middle East.
A while back I posted about a big buildup of US navy shipping in the Persian Gulf.
Things are getting ready.
A while back I posted about a big buildup of US navy shipping in the Persian Gulf.
Things are getting ready.
twincougars
Deceased
Obama administration proposes in abstentia trial for Hizballah
http://www.debka.com/article/20540/
Obama administration proposes in abstentia trial for Hizballah
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report January 13, 2011, 9:41 AM (GMT+02:00) Tags: Hariri
Hizballah
Lebanon
Obama
STL
Lebanese crisis over STL Pre-Trial Judge Daniel Fransen
President Barack Obama and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton are determined to bring Hizballah officials to justice for their involvement in the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri in Beirut five years ago – even after they toppled the Lebanese government by their ministers' walkout Wednesday, Jan. 12. If a transitional government in Beirut declares the international tribunal – STL – invalid and refuses to honor its summonses for Hizballah security officials, Washington intends to obtain authorization for trying Hizballah suspects in absentia, debkafile's Washington sources report.
Hizballah and its Iranian backers would be cornered into deciding between intensifying the crisis in Lebanon or accepting international isolation.
Saad Hariri's government fell while he was closeted with Obama in the White House Wednesday. He flew out of Washington and decided to stop over Thursday in Paris.
Last month, the administration assigned Jeffrey Feltman, Assistant Secretary of the State Department's Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs, to exploring with the United Nations the possibility of staging a trial in abstentia for Hizballah defendants refusing to appear in court. This procedure would break new ground in that it would make it possible for the first time to try missing defendants accused of assassination and terrorism.
The Hizballah case would therefore provide a landmark for trying fugitive leaders of Al Qaeda, Taliban and other radical Islamic terrorist organizations with known identities. International arrest warrants would override claims by countries like Pakistan and Iran that the whereabouts of wanted defendants are unknown. In this way, Osama bin Laden, Taliban leader Mullah Omar and others could be brought to justice in their absence on the basis of US and other intelligence data.
Our Washington sources report that the administration decided on this course after being convinced that
Special Lebanon Tribunal Prosecutor Daniel Bellemare had solid evidence against at least six high-ranking Hizballah security and intelligence officers - over and above records of cell phone conversations they made during the commission of the Hariri assassination in February 2005. In addition to those records, the international prosecutor has also obtained testimony from witnesses and documents which it has kept under close wraps until now.
The Obama administration believes that after Bellemare submits the results of his investigation and conclusions to the STL Pre-Trial Judge Daniel Fransen, the judge will issue a brief, dry statement saying that the investigation has concluded and its findings have been submitted and are now under his review – without revealing their content.
It will then be up to the judge to decide how long he needs to study the file and when to issue extradition warrants. This will give Washington time to have the trial in absentia procedure approved by the bodies responsible for the international tribunal.
The Lebanese crisis which erupted dramatically Wednesday, Jan 12 (click here for the debkafile report which first broke the story) may therefore drag on for months.
For fear of further Hizballah violence, our sources in Beirut report that the members of Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri's close circle started taking precautions in the last week of December. Many of them took advantage of the holiday season to send their families out of the country to the US or Europe on "extended vacations" or in remote corners of Lebanon. Bodyguards were hurriedly hired.
http://www.debka.com/article/20540/
Obama administration proposes in abstentia trial for Hizballah
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report January 13, 2011, 9:41 AM (GMT+02:00) Tags: Hariri
Lebanese crisis over STL Pre-Trial Judge Daniel Fransen
President Barack Obama and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton are determined to bring Hizballah officials to justice for their involvement in the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri in Beirut five years ago – even after they toppled the Lebanese government by their ministers' walkout Wednesday, Jan. 12. If a transitional government in Beirut declares the international tribunal – STL – invalid and refuses to honor its summonses for Hizballah security officials, Washington intends to obtain authorization for trying Hizballah suspects in absentia, debkafile's Washington sources report.
Hizballah and its Iranian backers would be cornered into deciding between intensifying the crisis in Lebanon or accepting international isolation.
Saad Hariri's government fell while he was closeted with Obama in the White House Wednesday. He flew out of Washington and decided to stop over Thursday in Paris.
Last month, the administration assigned Jeffrey Feltman, Assistant Secretary of the State Department's Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs, to exploring with the United Nations the possibility of staging a trial in abstentia for Hizballah defendants refusing to appear in court. This procedure would break new ground in that it would make it possible for the first time to try missing defendants accused of assassination and terrorism.
The Hizballah case would therefore provide a landmark for trying fugitive leaders of Al Qaeda, Taliban and other radical Islamic terrorist organizations with known identities. International arrest warrants would override claims by countries like Pakistan and Iran that the whereabouts of wanted defendants are unknown. In this way, Osama bin Laden, Taliban leader Mullah Omar and others could be brought to justice in their absence on the basis of US and other intelligence data.
Our Washington sources report that the administration decided on this course after being convinced that
Special Lebanon Tribunal Prosecutor Daniel Bellemare had solid evidence against at least six high-ranking Hizballah security and intelligence officers - over and above records of cell phone conversations they made during the commission of the Hariri assassination in February 2005. In addition to those records, the international prosecutor has also obtained testimony from witnesses and documents which it has kept under close wraps until now.
The Obama administration believes that after Bellemare submits the results of his investigation and conclusions to the STL Pre-Trial Judge Daniel Fransen, the judge will issue a brief, dry statement saying that the investigation has concluded and its findings have been submitted and are now under his review – without revealing their content.
It will then be up to the judge to decide how long he needs to study the file and when to issue extradition warrants. This will give Washington time to have the trial in absentia procedure approved by the bodies responsible for the international tribunal.
The Lebanese crisis which erupted dramatically Wednesday, Jan 12 (click here for the debkafile report which first broke the story) may therefore drag on for months.
For fear of further Hizballah violence, our sources in Beirut report that the members of Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri's close circle started taking precautions in the last week of December. Many of them took advantage of the holiday season to send their families out of the country to the US or Europe on "extended vacations" or in remote corners of Lebanon. Bodyguards were hurriedly hired.
China Connection
TB Fanatic
Clinton presses Persian Gulf countries on Iran
By Associated Press ,
http://topnews360.tmcnet.com/topics...inton-presses-persian-gulf-countries-iran.htm
ABU DHABI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said Sunday that the world must keep pressure on Iran over its suspect nuclear program despite recent estimates that the country may be further behind in efforts to develop atomic weapons than previously thought.
Clinton told reporters accompanying her on a three–nation tour of the Persian Gulf that Iran "remains a serious concern" no matter when it might be able to produce a nuclear weapon. And she urged countries in the region that do business with Iran "to do everything within reason" to help ensure the sanctions are enforced.
"We have had a consistent message to our friends in the Gulf that there is no part of the world that has more at stake in trying to deter Iran from becoming the creator and possessor of nuclear weapons than you," she said.
"I don't know that it gives much comfort to someone who is in the Gulf or in a country that Iran has vowed to destroy that it's a one–year or three–year timeframe. So, I think we should keep the focus where it belongs," she said, referring to the sanctions and efforts by world powers to persuade Iran to halt uranium enrichment.
Her comments were the first from a senior U.S. official in response to reports in Israel on Friday that Israel's newly retired spy chief thinks Iran won't be able to build a nuclear bomb before 2015, further pushing back Israeli intelligence estimates of when Tehran might become a nuclear power.
"We don't want anyone to be misled by anyone's intelligence analysis," Clinton said. "This remains a serious concern. We expect all our partners ... to stay as focused as they can and do everything within reason that will help to implement these sanctions."
As recently as 2009, Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak said Iran would be able to build a nuclear bomb by 2011. But since then the projected deadline has been extended. The Israeli Cabinet minister in charge of strategic affairs, Moshe Yaalon, said last week it would take the Iranians at least three years to develop a nuclear weapon.
Many Arab nations share U.S. fears that Iran is using a civilian atomic energy program to hide weapons development. Those concerns were amplified in leaked diplomatic cables released by the WikiLeaks website late last year that revealed deep mistrust of Iran by Sunni Arab leaders who must deal with an increasing emboldened Shiite neighbor.
Clinton acknowledged that one reason for her trip to the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Qatar was to try to contain damage done by the release of the classified cables, which have exposed embarrassing secrets and tensions in the region.
Her visit comes ahead of a new round of international talks with Iran, tentatively scheduled for Jan. 21–22 in Turkey. The five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council — the U.S., Russia, China, Britain and France — along with Germany will again try to compel Iran to come clean about its nuclear intentions, in return for incentives.
Iran is under four sets of U.N. sanctions because of its refusal to halt uranium enrichment, which can be used to produce nuclear fuel or materials for bombs. U.S. officials believe the penalties are hitting Iran's economy, but want them to be more strictly enforced and would like individual countries to take separate punitive measures on their own.
Tehran insists its uranium enrichment and other programs are meant only for peaceful purposes to generate fuel for a future network of nuclear reactors.
Clinton's trip to the Gulf is her second in as many months. She also attended an international security conference in Bahrain in December. While Iran is always high on the agenda during such visits to the region, her focus this time will be broader.
In her meetings with leaders in Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Muscat and Doha, Clinton said she would look for more Arab backing for the new government in Iraq and more financial support for the Palestinian Authority.
Some Arab states have yet to fulfill pledges to fully normalize relations with Iraq and open embassies in Baghdad, gestures of support that Washington wants to see as it winds down its military presence there.
"I would like to see every country open an embassy, I would like to see normal relations, I'd like to see the leaders of Iraq invited and consulted," Clinton said.
As the Obama administration struggles to get the Mideast peace process back on track, Clinton will push wealthy Arab powers to broaden their contributions to the Palestinians. The U.S. is keen to keep the development of Palestinian governmental institutions moving ahead.
Such progress may help forestall Palestinian moves to declare statehood or seek U.N. action against Israel.
"We continue to believe strongly that New York is not the place to resolve the longstanding conflict and outstanding issues between the Israelis and the Palestinians," Clinton said. "We do not think that that is a productive path for the Palestinians or anyone to pursue."
Clinton's visit also comes amid spikes of civil unrest in Arab states such as Tunisia and Algeria and deep alarm at the conduct of Egypt's recent elections.
In town hall events at most stops and at a regional conference in Qatar on Thursday, Clinton said she would promote democratic, economic and social change as ways to reduce tensions and blunt the threat from Islamic extremism, particularly among Arab youth.
By Associated Press ,
http://topnews360.tmcnet.com/topics...inton-presses-persian-gulf-countries-iran.htm
ABU DHABI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said Sunday that the world must keep pressure on Iran over its suspect nuclear program despite recent estimates that the country may be further behind in efforts to develop atomic weapons than previously thought.
Clinton told reporters accompanying her on a three–nation tour of the Persian Gulf that Iran "remains a serious concern" no matter when it might be able to produce a nuclear weapon. And she urged countries in the region that do business with Iran "to do everything within reason" to help ensure the sanctions are enforced.
"We have had a consistent message to our friends in the Gulf that there is no part of the world that has more at stake in trying to deter Iran from becoming the creator and possessor of nuclear weapons than you," she said.
"I don't know that it gives much comfort to someone who is in the Gulf or in a country that Iran has vowed to destroy that it's a one–year or three–year timeframe. So, I think we should keep the focus where it belongs," she said, referring to the sanctions and efforts by world powers to persuade Iran to halt uranium enrichment.
Her comments were the first from a senior U.S. official in response to reports in Israel on Friday that Israel's newly retired spy chief thinks Iran won't be able to build a nuclear bomb before 2015, further pushing back Israeli intelligence estimates of when Tehran might become a nuclear power.
"We don't want anyone to be misled by anyone's intelligence analysis," Clinton said. "This remains a serious concern. We expect all our partners ... to stay as focused as they can and do everything within reason that will help to implement these sanctions."
As recently as 2009, Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak said Iran would be able to build a nuclear bomb by 2011. But since then the projected deadline has been extended. The Israeli Cabinet minister in charge of strategic affairs, Moshe Yaalon, said last week it would take the Iranians at least three years to develop a nuclear weapon.
Many Arab nations share U.S. fears that Iran is using a civilian atomic energy program to hide weapons development. Those concerns were amplified in leaked diplomatic cables released by the WikiLeaks website late last year that revealed deep mistrust of Iran by Sunni Arab leaders who must deal with an increasing emboldened Shiite neighbor.
Clinton acknowledged that one reason for her trip to the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Qatar was to try to contain damage done by the release of the classified cables, which have exposed embarrassing secrets and tensions in the region.
Her visit comes ahead of a new round of international talks with Iran, tentatively scheduled for Jan. 21–22 in Turkey. The five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council — the U.S., Russia, China, Britain and France — along with Germany will again try to compel Iran to come clean about its nuclear intentions, in return for incentives.
Iran is under four sets of U.N. sanctions because of its refusal to halt uranium enrichment, which can be used to produce nuclear fuel or materials for bombs. U.S. officials believe the penalties are hitting Iran's economy, but want them to be more strictly enforced and would like individual countries to take separate punitive measures on their own.
Tehran insists its uranium enrichment and other programs are meant only for peaceful purposes to generate fuel for a future network of nuclear reactors.
Clinton's trip to the Gulf is her second in as many months. She also attended an international security conference in Bahrain in December. While Iran is always high on the agenda during such visits to the region, her focus this time will be broader.
In her meetings with leaders in Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Muscat and Doha, Clinton said she would look for more Arab backing for the new government in Iraq and more financial support for the Palestinian Authority.
Some Arab states have yet to fulfill pledges to fully normalize relations with Iraq and open embassies in Baghdad, gestures of support that Washington wants to see as it winds down its military presence there.
"I would like to see every country open an embassy, I would like to see normal relations, I'd like to see the leaders of Iraq invited and consulted," Clinton said.
As the Obama administration struggles to get the Mideast peace process back on track, Clinton will push wealthy Arab powers to broaden their contributions to the Palestinians. The U.S. is keen to keep the development of Palestinian governmental institutions moving ahead.
Such progress may help forestall Palestinian moves to declare statehood or seek U.N. action against Israel.
"We continue to believe strongly that New York is not the place to resolve the longstanding conflict and outstanding issues between the Israelis and the Palestinians," Clinton said. "We do not think that that is a productive path for the Palestinians or anyone to pursue."
Clinton's visit also comes amid spikes of civil unrest in Arab states such as Tunisia and Algeria and deep alarm at the conduct of Egypt's recent elections.
In town hall events at most stops and at a regional conference in Qatar on Thursday, Clinton said she would promote democratic, economic and social change as ways to reduce tensions and blunt the threat from Islamic extremism, particularly among Arab youth.
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