H5N1 human deaths in China - this may be it folks

[Martin]

Bird Flu Causing Meningococcemia / Meningitis Cases in India?

Recombinomics Commentary
May 13, 2005

>> Two more people died of meningococcemia in the capital yesterday.

The disease is displaying characteristics never seen before.

It is supposed to occur among children aged between 1-5, but the worst hit are adult males in the 15-30 age group.....

There have been 260 suspected cases and 20 deaths in the space of one month. Though these figures have alarmed some people, the government maintains the situation is well under control. <<

The meningococcemia / meningitis outbreak in India has some striking parallels with the outbreak in the Philippines. There have been no reports on bird flu tests on these patients, even though the infections are clustered, spreading rapidly, and affecting an unusual age group. Previously, WHO had said that clusters of unusual deaths would be tested for H5N1. There is little evidence for such tests, and there are significant concerns about the sensitivity of such tests. Moreover, meningococcemia is a known secondary infection of influenza.

Recent reports of H5N1 antibodies in poultry workers in India raise a red flag on bird flu. The sera were from 2002, but the monitoring of bird flu in India has been minimal, and there have been no attempts to isolate or sequence the virus. Thus, the current bird flu situation in India is not well understood.

In Vietnam a high percentage of ducks are asymptomatically infected with H5N1, and an increasing percentage of chickens are also asymptomatically infected. False negatives in humans are frequent in both northern and southern Vietnam, so the distribution of the virus in endemic areas is not monitored well, and the evolving virus is becoming increasingly difficult to detect with probes directed against earlier isolates.

Similarly, the probes being used to detect WSN/33 H1N1 in Korean pigs also yield false negatives, as the number of fatal swine infections increases and spreads. Bird flu appears to be spreading in greyhounds in the United States leading to unprecedented levels of fatal infections. These are being diagnosed as an unusually aggressive form of kennel cough, although the descriptions match the fatal H3N8 infections in Florida last year.

Although WHO has complained about a lack of samples, they have indicated that they were too busy to verify the fatal swine infections in Korea. Moreover, the WHO makes pronouncements about the absence of reassortment in Vietnam H5N1 isolates, although they have very limited data. Likewise, there has been no announcement on the fatal infections in dogs in the United States. Explanations for the meningitis outbreaks in the Philippines and India have also been lacking.

The recent infections of people, birds, pigs, and dogs create striking parallels with the 1918 flu pandemic. The fatal infections in the fall were preceded by mild but unusually widespread reports of atypical infections in the spring.

Although it is 87 years later and the number of scientific and medical advances has been significant, simple monitoring of various influenzas, including H5N1 is scandalously poor.



http://www.recombinomics.com/News/05130501/H5N1_Meningitis_India.html

 

[Martin]

Time to Implement Orders to Report Infectious Diseases is Now

Recombinomics Commentary
May 28, 2005

>> All Things Considered, May 27, 2005 · International law requires nations to report outbreaks of only three diseases: cholera, plague and yellow fever. That's changing under sweeping new regulations approved this week that require nations to tell the World Health Organization about any outbreak with the potential to spread across borders. <<

The new regulations passed at the World Health Assembly last week would significantly strengthen WHO's ability to monitor and control infections diseases. Diseases like bird flu would be reportable. WHO would have broader powers to investigate outbreaks, including contacting scientists directly via e-mail and bringing pressures to bare on transparency.

UN members including the US and China, have signed off of the new regulations, but it could take two years to implement.

The H5N1 situation in Qinghai China, with over 1000 birds deads and reports of 121 humans dead, is an excellent example of why the time to implement the approved regulations is NOW.


http://www.recombinomics.com/News/05280503/Implement_ID_Report.html

 

[Martin]

What Does the Bird Flu Mean For the Birds?

Could they have a pandemic, too?
By Daniel Engber
Posted Friday, May 27, 2005, at 3:37 PM PT


The Chinese agriculture ministry reported on Friday that more than 1,000 wild birds in Qinghai have died from a form of avian influenza. The government had already taken emergency measures after learning last weekend that the disease had killed 178 geese in the region. We've all heard about the potential dangers that bird flu poses to humans. But what effect is avian influenza having on the world's birds?

It's already been devastating. The Food and Agriculture Organization, a branch of the United Nations, estimates that between 120 million and 140 million domesticated birds like chicken and turkey have died from the H5N1 strain since the outbreak began last year. Large numbers of these birds were destroyed by government order to slow down the spread of the disease. It's not clear how many would have died from the illness, though available data suggest that H5N1 kills between 80 percent and 100 percent of the birds it infects. (It's impossible to say what percentage of the world's birds have died from avian influenza. Ornithologists say there's no good way to estimate the worldwide bird population.)

Birds spread the disease through droppings and other secretions, which often contaminate shared feed and water. Domesticated birds show a sudden decline in egg production a few days after they contract the illness; other symptoms include nasal discharge, swollen combs and wattles, severe internal bleeding, organ damage, and sudden death.



Waterfowl are thought to be the primary reservoirs of avian influenza—they can carry multiple strains for long periods of time without becoming seriously ill. Outbreaks occur when chickens and turkeys come into contact with these wild carriers and then spread the disease rapidly in the close conditions of a factory farm. The virus can even jump to humans in close proximity.

An outbreak of "Fowl Plague" in Italy in 1878 was probably an early example of dangerous (or "highly pathogenic") bird flu. The H5N1 virus wasn't identified until an episode in Scotland in 1959. Since then there have been about two dozen outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza, some of which have affected only a single flock. The current outbreak is the largest on record. Dozens of humans and millions of domesticated birds have died in at least eight Asian countries so far, and now China has said the disease is killing wild bar-headed geese, cormorants, and shelducks.

It's not the first time wild birds have fallen victim to avian influenza: Common terns in South Africa began to die from the H5N3 strain in 1961, and wild geese were found to have succumbed to H5N1 in 1996. But the virulence of the disease and the numbers of deaths seen now are cause for concern. Migratory, colonial birds heading north for breeding could spread the disease under the right conditions. There's not much that wildlife health officials can do to prevent this, but they could try to decontaminate high-risk areas or dissuade wild birds from visiting them—for example, by draining lakes.



http://slate.msn.com/id/2119708/

 

[bearwash]

Screw N-95's. Get some 3M P-95 throw away paint masks. Much better than N95.

I have cartons of both N95 and P-(Particulate)95 masks from the SARS era. Do you have access to data showing the P95 more effective at filtering viral-sized particles? I have forgotten the relative merits.

 

[JohnGaltfla]

I have cartons of both N95 and P-(Particulate)95 masks from the SARS era. Do you have access to data showing the P95 more effective at filtering viral-sized particles? I have forgotten the relative merits.

I can't provide data, but I do know from some hobby painting on cars that the P-95 is good for organic and oil based particulates. Beyond that, I do hope you get an answer also as I'm going to invest in P-95's or P-100's asap.

 

[north runner]

I can't provide data, but I do know from some hobby painting on cars that the P-95 is good for organic and oil based particulates. Beyond that, I do hope you get an answer also as I'm going to invest in P-95's or P-100's asap.

But they only work if you use the full body cover and gloves. You have to have a clean room. Decontaminate asap

 

[Doomer Doug]

Looks like I called it

Well it looks like my essay The End of Antibiotics will prove prophetic after all. We will, IMHO, have a global pandemic by Christmas. I also believe we will have a dollar collapse by Labor Day and I think North Korea will conduct a nuclear test, possibly by June 25th, the anniversary of the original Korean War invasion.

We are at the end of all things as Frodo put it. Living through the end of an era is really an amazing feeling.

The Red Chinese are the same lying butchers they were at Tienmein Square, where 10,000 to 15,000 were murdered, not the 3 or 4,000 the whore media says.

THE ASIAN SOUP AWAKES. THE WORLD WILL SHAKE. I wonder how you can PREP for a global pandemic? Edgar Allan Poe's Mask of the Red Death comes to my mind.

My personal opininion is the tribulation started in December with the Tsunami and George Bush fits into end time prophecy very nicely as your basic blood drinking out of a skull cup, a known Celtic pagan rite by the way, Satanist.

It is later than you think and that will be very clear by Christmas. Just what do you think will happen when tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands and millions start to die.
another thing is it the start of summer in Red China what will happen when infected birds start to really migrate in 90 days towards southeast asia?

enjoy life such as it is this summer for the end of life as we know it is upon us. That which we have talked about, argued about and prepped about is upon us at last. I read a book about the Black Death many years ago. My conclusion is, if you survive, things aren't as bleak as they would naturally appear. This global pandemic will create many new opportunities for the survivors. We shall see. I am just personally stunned to have lived to see such days in my life. Absolutely amazing.

 

[Martin]

Next flu epidemic will hit Africa hard

Catherine Brahic and Mike Shanahan



30 May 2005 09:00

The Pandemic Preparedness Project is readying nations worldwide for an expected global flu epidemic, according to reports on the Science and Development Network website. Researchers agree that it is question of when, not if, a global flu epidemic occurs.

Many experts, including those of the World Health Organisation, predict the next outbreak will result from the current bird-flu epidemics in south-east Asia.

Leading scientists warn that we are in a race against time to prepare for a global flu epidemic and that current efforts lack both funding and coordination.

But countries in Africa and South America appear to be very poorly prepared for the expected epidemic, warned Nelson Gonzales, Pandemic Preparedness Project coordinator for the United Kingdom Royal Institution's World Science Assembly.

"Some national governments are putting together decent preparations, but that is six to 12 countries at most," said Gonzales, referring to vaccine research and drug stockpiling that is under way in North America and Europe.

"We are dealing with a 'weakest link' phenomenon," said Gonzales. "It doesn't matter how prepared you are if your neighbour is unprepared."

One of his major concerns is making sure that governments outside Asia, Europe and North America are prepared for an eventual pandemic. The initiative will not hand out funds.

"Our responsibility is to catalyse the interest, momentum and partnerships that need to happen," explained Gonzales. "We feel the science has done a really good job of determining what the needs are. What is lacking is the political will."

The Pandemic Preparedness Project is chaired by Rita Colwell, former director of the United States National Science Foundation, and includes Klaus Stöhr, coordinator for the World Health Organisation's Global Influenza Programme.

Commenting on the absence of representatives from south-east Asia, where epidemics are currently occurring, Gonzales said the project is waiting for replies to invitations to representatives in the region to join the steering committee.

Bird flu is caused by a virus, H5N1, now believed to be widespread in poultry in parts of south-east Asia. It has killed 21 people in the region since December last year, and 53 in total since December 2003.

Although the virus does not easily jump from human to human, it kills about half of the people it infects, and some researchers say it is only a matter of time before the virus becomes able to spread from person to person.

While some drugs are available, doctors in many countries are not familiar with administering them. The medicines need to be used as soon as possible, but flu symptoms are notoriously vague. In addition, if a pandemic occurs, the drugs may need to be combined with quarantine of the victim and his or her family.

Overdue pandemic

There were three flu pandemics in the 20th century and experts say the next one is overdue. The pandemic in 1918 -- the year of Nelson Mandela's birth -- killed 20-million people. The 1957 and 1968 pandemics were mild in comparison, each claiming one million lives.

Earlier this year, leading researchers issued a series of stark warnings that the world is unprepared for an "inevitable" global bird-flu epidemic, which even optimistic estimates predict could kill millions of people -- hitting developing countries hardest.

Ron Fouchier and his colleagues at the National Influenza Centre in The Netherlands have called for a "global task force" to translate scientific findings into effective policies.

Fouchier and his team said the costs of an integrated approach to the bird-flu threat would be "dwarfed" by the economic losses brought by a full-blown pandemic. They point out that bird-flu outbreaks in 2003 cost The Netherlands, Thailand and Vietnam $1,3-billion in agricultural costs alone.

Thailand and Vietnam have been at the centre of debates over whether to respond to H5N1 outbreaks in poultry by mass vaccination or culling of birds.

There are concerns that vaccines could promote the evolution of H5N1 into a more deadly form. But Robert Webster and Diane Hulse, virologists based at the St Jude Children's Research hospital in the US, argued in a separate article in the journal Nature that high-quality vaccines might reduce the amount of the virus circulating to a manageable level.

"The technology for producing inexpensive agricultural vaccines using reverse genetics is available and should be developed," they wrote.

China used poultry vaccines to control an H5N1 outbreak in 2004 and has not reported any outbreaks in domestic poultry since. But with memories of China's 2003 outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome still fresh, many believe that how China — which has 13-billion chickens — faces bird flu could have a major impact on other countries.

David Ho of the Aaron Diamond Aids Research Centre at Rockefeller University in the US said that while China's disease surveillance system looks good "on paper", many faults remain.

"The disease surveillance system is grossly underfunded, and consequently lacks sufficient human resources and technical capacity," said Ho in his contribution to Nature.

Ho called on China to spend more money on microbiology research to understand bird flu and other pathogens better, and to create enough Chinese experts able to advise policy-makers.

"China must make microbial threats to health a top priority in its national research agenda," said Ho. "It has a moral obligation to its own people, and to the world, to rectify the situation as soon as possible."

Vaccine

Creating a vaccine to prevent people from becoming infected with bird flu is the most important challenge, said Michael Osterholm of the Centre for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota in the US.

Currently, just 5% of the world's population living in a handful of rich nations receive flu vaccines, said Osterholm. But he warned that a vaccine against a pandemic strain of the bird-flu virus will not be ready for at least six months after the pandemic begins. Even then, there will only be enough vaccines to protect 14% of the global population.

Wherever the predicted pandemic begins — likely to be in one of the Asian nations where the virus is currently circulating — a vaccine will not be delivered fast enough.

By acting now, said Osterholm, we might be able to change its course. He urged the rich nations of the Group of Eight most-industrialised nations to recognise the threat and act decisively by investing in vaccine research and other efforts to minimise the number of people the epidemic kills.

We are in a race against time, agreed Anthony Fauci, of the US-based National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

"Unlike the situation before previous flu pandemics, we now have the knowledge and technology to develop countermeasures for this disease," he said. "However, unless we improve our capacity to produce such countermeasures, we may experience again the devastation of past epidemics."

But rich governments are not inclined to help poor countries monitor animal viruses because they see it as a form of economic assistance. In this, they ignore the global threat posed by these viruses.

The journal Nature called the state of global inaction on this issue "scandalous".



http://www.mg.co.za/articlePage.aspx?articleid=242023&area=/insight/insight__africa/

 

[JohnGaltfla]

But they only work if you use the full body cover and gloves. You have to have a clean room. Decontaminate asap

What about surgical gloves and the mask. For day to day public contact?

 

[goatlady2]

The virus will get on your clothes, johngaultfla. You will bring it home with you. Besides, according to present govnt. pandemic plans (such as they are) and suggestions from CDC there will be nationwide quarantines i.e. no school, no church, no work except essential services such as police and medical so not many will be havig "public contact." Best plan on hunkering down for several months for the first pandemic wave and get set for the second and third waves if this virus follows the pattern of past viral pandemics.

 

[Martin]

China Fails to Address the 121 H5N1 Fatalities in Qinghai China

Recombinomics Commentary
May 30, 2005

>> He also confirmed that the government had substantially under-reported an apparent outbreak of bird flu.

Originally, the government had said 178 geese were found dead in Qinghai Lake but over the weekend admitted 1,000 migratory wild birds in the area.

He said the disease had not spread to humans but rumours of deaths among humans persist.

A web-based Chinese-language news service called Boxun (Abundant News), which allows correspondents to freely post information on its site, reported on 25 May that 121 people in 18 villages in the sparsely-settled western province of Qinghai have died of bird flu, and more are ill. Some 1300 people, have been isolated, it reported, according to Dr Henry Niman, founder of Recombinomics, a biotech firm set up to develop vaccines against flu.

On the number of birds infected, Jia Youling said: "It is a rarity for such large-scale deaths to occur, whether in China or other parts of the world. We have never heard of such a thing."

State media said the migration paths of the wild birds involved made it unlikely the epidemic would spread to other parts of China and that no domesticated fowl had been infected. <<

The continued blanket denials of human H5N1 cases will not dispell reports of deaths of 6 tourists and 121 others in 18 communities in Gangcha County in Qinghai Province. The reports on the deaths were quite specific, and included names of four of the tourists.

Government statements that there were no H5N1 human cases require test results on the patients with high fever and vomiting, especially those who died. The deaths of six tourists in the same location and at the same time as the over 1000 bird deaths, which have been confirmed to be H5N1 positive, create a high level of suspicion, as does the 121 other deaths.

The cases need to addressed specifically, with data on age, gender, and cause of death. Blanket denials are not sufficient.

The WHO should be aggressively pursuing more details and not accepting simple denials.


http://www.recombinomics.com/News/05300501/H5N1_China_Fails.html

 

[bearwash]

I'm going to invest in P-95's or P-100's asap.

Sounds like we'll need to read or re-read some 3M white papers. I do airbrushing also but have never bothered to put on a mask tsk-tsk.

I try to keep my masks, respirators, and media cartridges arranged from least effective/cheapest to most effective/expensive. It's an imperfect system and the order changes depending on the type of threat anticipated. Right now, the P-100 respirators are way down at the right end of the shelf with big BOLD letters: FOR USE IN WORST CONDITIONS ONLY!!!

I continue to think that the SARS crisis was a warning and a reason for us to prepare for something else in the future.

 

[LMonty911]

bttt

 

[Martin]

Indonesia declared bird flu endemic country

www.chinaview.cn 2005-05-31 12:17:21

JAKARTA, May 31 (Xinhuanet) -- The World Organization for Animal Health (OIE) has declared Indonesia an endemic country for avian influenza, but the government is still determined to achieve its target of being free of bird flu by 2007, a minister was quoted Tuesday as saying.

"It is a sad decision for us considering that bird flu cases are on the decline, especially since last year," Minister of Agriculture Anton Apriyantono was quoted by The Jakarta Post newspaper as saying.

The OIE's declaration implies that Indonesia remains a country with a high risk for future outbreaks, he said.

Anton said that despite the disheartening OIE assessment, it would not deter the government from its drive to overcome and eliminate bird flu from the country.

"This will instead encourage us to fight bird flu even harder, be it by enhancing bio-security or isolation," he said, adding that the ministry had not revised its target of being bird-flu free by 2007.

According to data from the ministry, 16.2 million birds died of the virus last year, while from January to March of this year a reported 281,730 birds have died of the virus in 10 regencies in South Sulawesi, West Java and Central Java.

Responding to the ministry's discovery of the bird flu virus inpigs in Tangerang, Banten province, Anton said he had ordered all pigs on the contaminated farm to be slaughtered.

"We found the virus in small pig farms located next to poultry farms. To prevent similar cases, we have asked pig farms across the country to be relocated a certain distance away from any poultry farm," he said. Enditem

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2005-05/31/content_3025779.htm

 

[Martin]

Warning system for bird flu
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/6/2005 8:50


Shanghai Daily news

China plans to launch an early warning system to detect and prevent the spread of bird flu in cases similar to the recent outbreak of the virus in northwest China, authorities said yesterday.

The network will be based on a wide array of information technologies, according to an official with the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the system¡¯s developer.

The system will feature a nationwide virus database, epidemic analysis and information sharing among foreign experts and regular information releases to the public, according to Ma Juncai, assistant director of the academy¡¯s Institute of Microbiology.

¡°The system would warn people of an epidemic and help scientists find solutions to kill the virus as soon as possible,¡± Ma said during the Fifth Annual Forum on City Informatization in the Asia Pacific Region, held in Shanghai. Ma and his co-workers are developing the system in eight provinces including Yunnan and Hunan.

¡°The high-tech system is under construction, but it¡¯s hard to predict when it will be put into use,¡± Ma said.

China announced last Friday that more than 1,000 migratory birds, mainly geese and gulls, had died from avian flu in the country¡¯s northwest, mostly in Qinghai Province.

Bird flu virus has killed at least 37 people in Vietnam, 12 in Thailand and four in Cambodia. ¡°Bird flu is more difficult to control compared with SARS because it is hard to detect. Its human symptoms are similar to a bad cold,¡± Ma said.

¡°So it is urgent to establish a warning system in China.¡± During the forum, officials with the Shanghai Information Technology Development Commission emphasized that the city will continue to establish e-government and e-commerce platforms in the next five years.

Meanwhile, Shanghai will develop next generation networks, digital TV, flat panel display devices and third-generation telecommunications, which represent the most advanced technologies in the world, according to Liu Jian, a senior official with the commission. Also at the forum, Alcatel Shanghai Bell promoted its e-government system, which can integrate fire, police and medical emergency numbers into a single number. ¡°It can also automatically manage all authorities to react together (to an emergency) to reduce damage,¡± said Wang Weiguo, an Alcatel vice president. The three-day information technology forum, which ends today, has attracted 1,100 government officials and experts from 44 countries and regions.


http://english.eastday.com/eastday/englishedition/metro/userobject1ai1144340.html

 

[gappedout]

May 31, 2005

Brazil Orders Slaughter of 17,000 Chickens After 6,000 Die From Illness
The Associated Press


SAO PAULO, Brazil (AP) - Authorities ordered the slaughter of 17,000 chickens after 6,000 chickens died from a mysterious respiratory illness in a central western Brazilian state, officials said.
Sanitary authorities do not know what kind of disease the chickens had, but expect to identify it by the end of this week, Gladys Raquel, an animal sanitation manger with the state government of Mato Grosso do Sul state, said Tuesday in a statement.

Raquel and officials with Brazil's Agriculture Ministry refused to answer questions about the illness, or whether it was had similar symptoms to bird flu disease in Asia, saying they want to wait for the test results.

The regional death toll in Asia's latest bird flu outbreak stands at 54 people. Vietnam suffered the most deaths with 38.

The Brazilian farm at the center of the outbreak was quarantined with road blocks.

Brazil is the world's largest chicken exporter. Production in South America's largest country rose 8 percent last year, with exports skyrocketing 26 percent, in part because of the outbreak of bird flu in Asia.

AP-ES-05-31-05 2038EDT

This story can be found at: http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGBQ1MZTE9E.html

 

[Martin]

State devises plan for potential flu outbreak
By Sue Vorenberg
Tribune Reporter
May 31, 2005

Preparing for what he calls the "mother of all emergency responses" isn't something state epidemiologist Mack Sewell takes lightly.

But the threat - of a global flu pandemic - is also one that no city, state or country is really ready for, he says.

Sewell and the Department of Health are preparing New Mexico's plan to deal with a potential flu pandemic, an outbreak that likely would kill millions worldwide. That plan probably will be in place by late summer, he said.

"The idea that one of these outbreaks is overdue is certainly within the realm of possibility," Sewell said. "Nobody knows when it's coming. Typically there's about four pandemics per century, and we haven't had one since 1968."

That pandemic was relatively mild, killing 750,000 people worldwide. The more scary scenario is a pandemic similar to the one in 1918, which killed 20 million to 100 million people worldwide, including 500,000 in the United States, Sewell said.

Patients would overwhelm New Mexico's hospitals and medical infrastructure, as well as those in other states, Sewell said.

"It takes six to eight months to make a vaccine from a newly discovered strain of virus, and even then only a few developed countries will get it," Sewell said. "That's much longer than it would take for a pandemic strain to infect every country on the globe."

Some aspects of the state plan will be getting the first vaccines and protective equipment to state health care workers and shutting down public places like schools and shopping malls. Efforts to find new types of vaccines - which would be the most effective tool - are in only the most primitive planning stages locally and globally, Sewell said.

"We have some anti-viral drugs but not nearly enough for the population," Sewell said. "There's also a lot of people working on ways to speed up the process in which vaccines are made, but we're not there yet."

Sewell is president-elect of the national Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists, which is working with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on a national pandemic preparedness plan, also due out in the late summer, he said.

"A few years ago, you'd read about this and think it's very depressing, we're all going to die," Sewell said. "But I think there is at least more action and understanding starting to develop that will help. Even the front-burner attention in medical journals and the press will help us better prepare."

Of note is the May 26 issue of the journal Nature, which dedicated its entire editorial section to the problem, he said.

Articles in the issue describe the dangerous mixing pot in Southeast Asia, where bird flu cases are growing.

"The goal of notifying people about this is not just to scare the bejesus out of them - although the possible scenarios are kind of scary," Sewell said. "The goal is to make sure we don't get frozen in inaction. Everybody needs to stay informed and realize this is really a time to call to arms and get prepared."

Bird flu turns into human flu when the disease spreads from chickens or other birds - including wild ducks - to people. It can turn into a pandemic when the disease mutates in people so that it can be transmitted from person to person rather than just bird to human.

"It is sobering to realize that when the last pandemic emerged in 1968 in China, the nation's human population was 790 million and the poultry population was 12.3 million; today those numbers are 1.3 billion and 13 billion, respectively," said Sewell's friend and colleague Michael T. Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, in one of those editorials.

The larger populations mean even more chances for the disease to leap from birds to people.

"A pandemic could be unleashed tomorrow or in 10 years from now, but the scene for a potential catastrophe is already set," Osterholm said.

One candidate that could turn into a pandemic has already reared its ugly head in Southeast Asia. In southern China in 1997, a flu strain called H5N1 appeared, killing six people before the Chinese government launched a massive effort to kill chickens and stop the disease.

It worked in China, but the disease escaped. Since late 2003, it also has killed more than 50 people in Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia, Sewell said.

"Most of the transmission so far has been from poultry to poultry or poultry to people," Sewell said. "The cases of human to human are few, which is good, because that means it's not transmitting well at this time, but that could easily change."

Southeast China might seem remote from New Mexico, but international flights mean if a true person-to-person outbreak occurred, the disease probably would appear here in a few weeks or a month after it spiked in the Far East, Sewell said.

"Don't forget that during the SARS outbreak (in 2003) we had a case here," he said. "That was real, and we had to get information out quickly, but fortunately it didn't turn into a pandemic. Preparing for a true pandemic - we hope, at least - we should have a bit more time."

New Mexico is lucky in that it has a strong public health infrastructure in place. Hospitals, health groups and the state are networked into a computer system that can track disease outbreaks early, hopefully buying time for a more strategic response, Sewell said.

"Still, we'd be fighting it with traditional tools when it first appeared," Sewell said. "That means we'd isolate cases and perhaps quarantine people who were exposed but not sick yet. That could help slow it, but it probably wouldn't stop it from spreading in the long run."

"The reality is there's no way to stop it from spreading globally with current technology - we can only do that if we take steps now to deal with it in the future," he added.

http://www.abqtrib.com/albq/nw_science/article/0,2668,ALBQ_21236_3819042,00.html

 

[Housecarl]

The comment about this hittig Africa hard is really telling. Considering the AIDS rate in central and southern Africa, you'd likely see a huge die off from the AIDS infected people not being able to fight off the effects and secondaries from the flu.

An equally big concern should be the interaction of a pandemic flu strain within such a large population of AIDS positive people.

 

[Martin]

Canada Finds Bird Flu Strain on BC Turkey Farm
USAgNet - 06/01/2005

The Canadian Food Inspection Agency has quarantined a turkey layer farm in Abbotsford, British Columbia based on preliminary results from the British Columbia Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Fisheries, indicating the presence of the H3 influenza virus in the flock.
The turkey farm is near a swine farm that recently experienced an H3 influenza infection and the virus is suspected to have originated from swine. Transmission of this influenza strain between swine and turkeys is a danger that has been seen before.

This low pathogenic H3 virus is a milder form of virus and has not been known to mutate into high pathogenic avian influenza as the H7N3 strain did last year in the Fraser Valley.

The CFIA said this is not related to the avian influenza outbreak in 2004 and all testing by BCMAAF to date is negative for the H5 or H7 strains of the virus. While the CFIA and BCMAAF investigated the situation, and with the cooperation of the producer, every biosecurity measure was implemented, the CFIA said.

The CFIA is sending samples to the National Centre for Foreign Animal Diseases in Winnipeg for further testing.


http://www.wisconsinagconnection.com/story-national.cfm?Id=561&yr=2005

 

[Martin]

Excessive secrecy deeply flaws flu fight
Wednesday, June 01, 2005
At least 20 million people worldwide, and possibly as many as twice that number or more, died in the influenza epidemic of 1918-1919.

It was second only to World War II as the 20th century's most deadly human catastrophe.

More than a quarter of all Americans became infected with the disease and an estimated 675,000 died from it. Unusual for the flu, it was most deadly among people 20 to 40-years-old, cutting people down in the prime of their life, often within hours of being stricken.



Medical science has learned a great deal about flu and its treatment in the last 85 years. Nevertheless, some 36,000 Americans still die from it in an average flu season.

And there is increasing fear that the virus could transform itself once again into a "supergerm" and cause another worldwide pandemic threatening the lives of millions.

Indeed, epidemiologists are paying particular attention to avian virus strain H5N1 in southeast Asia, a strain especially deadly when contracted by humans. The fear is that a human-to-human variety of this strain will develop, potentially unleashing a new pandemic.

Understandably, states are making preparations in the event of a major and deadly flu outbreak, which many in the field believe is inevitable. What is less understandable is that Pennsylvania officials have chosen to keep their flu-response plan secret. New Jersey, in contrast, has put its plan on the Internet.

Pennsylvania officials say it is likely that a summary of the plan will be posted on the Health Department's Web site later this year.

Pennsylvania is hardly alone among states in closely guarding its pandemic-response plans. But the penchant for keeping the plans under wraps is misguided. While there may be aspects to the planning that should remain secret -- such as the location of vaccine -- keeping a lid on the plans could very well cause more problems than it prevents.

An open planning process would serve to familiarize the public with the nature of the threat, and alert medical and emergency personnel to the procedures that have been put in place to respond.

Perhaps most importantly, planning that is public will best ensure that any flaws will be caught before a public-health emergency, not during it.

In our book, the plan already is deeply flawed by the secrecy that surrounds it.

OUR VIEW: An open planning process would serve to familiarize the public with the nature of the threat



http://www.pennlive.com/editorials/patriotnews/index.ssf?/base/opinion/111761782128320.xml&coll=1

 

[Kim99]

It seems like the news out of China has stopped. Wonder what's going on?

 

[Rex Jackson]

Thanks for the heads up.

Home schooling just took on a whole new meaning for me.

 

[LMonty911]

some of the newest boxun reports indicate they are being pursued by the authorities, i take it freedom of speech is not one of the Chinese goverments favorite terms

 

[Martin]

Commentary
.
Fever Patients in Gangcha County Qinghai China?

Recombinomics Commentary
June 1, 2005

>> These on felt the throat pain, the estimate was the smoke pulls out much, went to the Gangcha County people hospital to open an antiphlogistic, my goodness, the entire hospital was busy awfully, also moved the thing, also cleaned, asked worked as doctor the friend, said was is expanding infects the hospital ward, but also transferred to other locations very many doctors, looks very lively, doctor the friend said was all right do not have to egress, was staying in the home, listened to his meaning now Qinghai many hospitals all to additionally build the infection branch, had the infection branch to have to expand the hospital ward and the expansion medical officer, felt nervous, opened an antiphlogistic to go home. <<

The above machine translation of the latest report from boxun.com (Abundant News) describes increased activity at the Gangcha County People's Hospital. The activities include expansion of the fever ward and physician transfers to other locations.

These activities have not been verified by third parties, but are consistent with earlier reports of 200 infections and 121 deaths in 18 townships in Gangcha County, Qinghai China. On May 25 China Daily had reported "hospitals in the affected county had opened separate departments for screening patients with fever and to observe people who had close contact with the birds".

More details on the screening of fever patients would be useful. Thus far there have been blanket denials of human H5N1 cases, but no detail on the number of patients with fever, their age, gender, and location, etc. Although official denials have mentioned a lack of pneumonia cases, the human infections and deaths reported via Abundant News involved high fever, but not pneumonia.

More "boots on the ground" of media or WHO personel may provide more information on reported increases in fever patients and reported deaths. The latest update would be cause for concern because the descriptions suggest an ongoing infection problem in the same region where there have been over 1000 confirmed H5N1 bead flu deaths of at least five species of waterfowl near Qinghai Lake Nature Reserve, which has been closed.



http://www.recombinomics.com/News/06010501/H5N1_Gangcha_China.html

 

[Martin]

Frist warns of medical 'storm'

June 2, 2005

By Raja Mishra Boston Globe

CAMBRIDGE, Mass. — Senate majority leader Bill Frist Wednesday called for a large-scale national effort to combat emerging infectious diseases and bioterrorism, telling an assembly of students and faculty at Harvard Medical School that the nation is unprepared to fend off "an approaching storm" of epidemics that could kill millions.

Frist, a Tennessee Republican who graduated from Harvard's medical school in 1978, said the destructive power of a biological weapon unleashed by terrorists, or a mutating virus, could dwarf the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001.

"I call for the creation of the ability to detect, identify, and model any emerging or newly emerging infection, present or future, natural or otherwise," said Frist, calling for support of legislation pending in Congress that would strengthen the nation's defenses against bioterrorism and raise preparedness to combat potential epidemics. "We must open our eyes to face the single greatest threat to our safety and security today."

The speaking engagement Wednesday at Harvard allowed Frist to play the role of doctor-statesman, bantering with students about infectious disease and his medical work as a missionary in rural Africa rather than managing the intense political pressures that have been building in the Senate in recent months, most prominently during debates over filibustering of judicial appointments, stem cell research, the nomination of John Bolton to be ambassador to the United Nations, and Congress's involvement in the Terri Schiavo case.

Frist has played a central role in all those dramas, amid speculation that he will run for the presidency in 2008. Wednesday , he took audience questions only on infectious diseases and health policy. Afterward, Frist's aides said he would not take any reporters' questions unrelated to the topics.

"Being a doctor was part of his key to success in getting elected," said Larry Sabato, a University of Virginia political scientist. "He was the noncareer politician. He came across as a knowledgeable professional in a field people respect. But now he's the majority leader of a very conservative caucus. That has totally changed his image."

A planned confrontation by Harvard students was muted: They drafted a letter, signed by more than 110 Harvard faculty members and students, listing Frist's shortcomings on global health policy, but were able to present it only after the audience had filed out. The students ended up posing for pictures with Frist.

In his speech, before more than 500 people as part of an annual Harvard lecture series on health policy, Frist said a spate of recent infectious-disease outbreaks signaled that contagions were rapidly mutating in ways that could soon threaten entire nations: reports of drug-resistant HIV, avian flu cases in Asia reminiscent of the flu pandemic that killed 50 million in 1918 and 1919, and hundreds of cases of Marburg hemorrhagic fever in Angola. These, combined with the possibility of bioterrorist strikes, leave the United States vulnerable to catastrophe.

"In such a circumstance, panic, suffering, and the spread of disease would intensify, the economy would become crippled, electrical power would flicker out, and food and medical supplies would fail to move," said Frist.

Frist urged passage of a bill introduced earlier this year that would increase funding for bioterrorism research, help companies develop and stockpile vaccines, increase funding and staffing for government disease surveillance programs, and create several commissions to monitor the nation's preparedness for bio-attacks and outbreaks. These measures, included within a larger healthcare legislative package, are under review by several Senate legislative committees. He said the bill was the first step in a national effort that should rival in scope the Manhattan Project, which developed atomic bombs during World War II

http://www.timesargus.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20050602/NEWS/506020348/1002/NEWS01

 

[Martin]

Bird flu: we're all going to die
By Charles Arthur


Published Thursday 2nd June 2005 11:25 GMT
The theme of the person awaking from a deep sleep or coma to find a world utterly changed is a popular one in science fiction. From John Wyndham's book The Day of The Triffids through The Omega Man to the recent film 28 Days Later, the trope of the man arising from his hospital bed to find that nothing is as it was has become well-worn.

That's fine - as long as it remains just a story. But if - when - a flu pandemic comes, and millions of people die around the world over a period of months, the reality will be one of two alternatives. It's either going to be like those films, with videoconferencing suddenly all the rage, local farm produce making a big profit, empty supermarket shelves (you have to ship the oil, and distribute the fuel, but can the Armed Forces really do all that?), tumbleweed blowing in the streets, a medieval attitude to anyone not from "around here".

Or else governments will impose a police state that will make all the ID cards and airport checks look like a tea party. You'd not be allowed to move anywhere without showing off a vaccination certificate. (Sure, you'd get those on the black market, and they'd cost more than £300, but would you really want them? If you're not vaccinated would you really want to travel among people who might be carriers?) Or it might be both at once.

One more thing. You might well be one of those millions who die in such a pandemic. If you travel to work on public transport; if colleagues in your company travel by air to Asia; if you're travelling abroad through a busy airport. You'll probably touch someone or share air with someone who's infected. The premise of Terry Gilliam's Twelve Monkeys will become reality.

You may think this is overblown. But discussion of the possibility of a flu pandemic has fallen out of the news. And as the security consultant Bruce Schneier says: "One of the things I routinely tell people is that if it's in the news, don't worry about it. By definition, 'news' means that it hardly ever happens. If a risk is in the news, then it's probably not worth worrying about. When something is no longer reported - automobile deaths, domestic violence - when it's so common that it's not news, then you should start worrying."

The risks posed by an outbreak of flu passed from chickens in the Far East, in coutries such as Vietnam and Thailand, burst into the news in February. But now they've passed out of the news. Since then we've had more important things, like the Crazy Frog ringtone, to concern us.

Time to worry. And the scientists are. In fact, they're edgier than I've seen them since the BSE outbreak was in its earliest days and people were wondering if it might pass to humans. Quite a few scientists stopped eating beef at that point. Oh, you didn't know?

Now, their reaction is to write papers and watch what's happening, very closely. If you read the scientific journals (we do, so you don't have to) the articles are piling up. Last week the journal Nature pulled together an entire online resource on the threat of avian flu.

That's the trouble with scientists. They get an idea into their heads - CFCs and ozone, carbon dioxide emissions and the greenhouse effect, the transmission of BSE to other species such as humans - and they worry away at it until they determine what the answer and the mechanism is.

Here's what's they're worrying about now. The First World War killed seven million people. But the strain of flu that followed it - incubated, experts reckon, in pigs that were kept near the front lines to help feed the troops - killed up to 100 million, helped by the movement of troops returning home from the war.

Pandemics come around, on average, about every 70 years or so. There were small ones in 1957 and 1968/9, when "Hong Kong flu" - strain H1N1 - spread around the world, and one million died. That was tiny by pandemic standards. The scientists reckon we're overdue for an infectious, fatal strain of flu, one which can pass from human to human by the usual methods - sneezing or contact.

There's already a deadly strain of flu around - "chicken flu", better known to the scientists by the strain of flu virus that causes it: H5N1. But it only passes from chickens to humans, not from from person to person. If it could do that, it would have the potential to turn pandemic.

But maybe it already can. There have already been a couple of cases of deaths from H5N1 where the only logical pathway is human-to-human. The UK government announced in February that it will buy in thousands of doses of Tamiflu as part of the UK Influenza Pandemic Contingency Plan (PDF, 160kB).

Too bad - the latest results (reported by New Scientist; limited-time free access) suggest that Tamiflu isn't effective against H5N1. And anyway, New Scientist reports, the UK's order for 14.6 million five-day courses of Tamiflu treatment will take its patent owners Roche two years to fulfil. The company is still trying to develop ways to synthesise it from scratch.

The consequences of a really big, fatal flu epidemic on modern society are hard to imagine, partly because they're so enormous. Air passengers would be the first vector of infection, followed by the people who travelled with them in the train or Underground train or coach from the airport, followed by the family and friends of those people. Give it a few days and people would be falling ill, then over the next weeks dying.

If the strain is new and unexpected, there wouldn't be time to produce enough vaccine to treat it. According to a New England Journal of Medicine article by Dr Michael Osterholm of the University of Minnesota in Minneapolis - who is also director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy - titled "Preparing for the Next Pandemic", the 1950s-era methods of producing vaccines means we would need (ironically enough) one chicken egg per person to produce the vaccine, plus six months to culture it.

"The global economy would come to a halt, and since we could not expect appropriate vaccines to be available for many months and we have very limited stockpiles of antiviral drugs, we would be facing a 1918-like scenario," notes Dr Osterholm, who calculates that given current technology, we could vaccinate about 500 million people, tops - about 14 per cent of the world population.

Of course, most of those will be in the developed world. But are you sure you'd be one? Are you in the Armed Forces? Do you or your business count as an essential service? If you're not involved with the electricity, water, fuel distribution, phone or gas industries, then probably not. "And owing to our global 'just-in-time delivery' economy, we would have no surge capacity for health care, food supplies, and many other products and services," Dr Osterholm adds.

Let's have some more numbers from Dr Osterholm, just to encourage you. He writes: "It is sobering to realize that in 1968, when the most recent influenza pandemic occurred, the virus emerged in a China that had a human population of 790 million, a pig population of 5.2 million, and a poultry population of 12.3 million; today, these populations number 1.3 billion, 508 million, and 13 billion, respectively. Similar changes have occurred in the human and animal populations of other Asian countries, creating an incredible mixing vessel for viruses. Given this reality, as well as the exponential growth in foreign travel during the past 50 years, we must accept that a pandemic is coming - although whether it will be caused by H5N1 or by another novel strain remains to be seen."

All this has been noted by virologists and disease experts around the world. But what can we do? For one thing, listen to what they're saying, and put some pressure on the politicians who are ignoring this threat, in the hope it will go away. Climate change may be a greater threat than terrorism, but a flu pandemic is a more immediate threat than either.

Or, as Canada's deputy chief public health officer, Dr Paul Gully, put it to the Toronto Star: "Frankly the crisis could for all we know have started last night in some village in Southeast Asia. We don't have any time to waste and even if we did have some time, the kinds of things we need to do will take years. Right now, the best we can do is try to survive it. We need a Manhattan Project yesterday."

Let's hope they got started. Now, where's the number of that forger for my vaccination certificate?



http://www.theregister.co.uk/2005/06/02/bird_flu/print.html

 

[Martin]

Over 8000 Bird Flu Deaths in Gangcha County Qinghai China?

Recombinomics Commentary
June 2, 2005

>> The spot lead goose dies 5412
The brown gull dies 641
鸬 鹚 dies 1151
The fishing gull dies 1064
The red mouth dives the duck dies 121
The red foot snipe dies 34
The link neck □a dies 23
The tern dies 12
白骨顶 dies 6
Phoenix □Gúf dies 11
The black neck crane dies 2
The birds and beasts 蓑羽鹤 dies 1
The wolf dies 3
The fox dies 2
狗獾 dies 6
The wilderness cat dies 11
The partial herdsman infects or 疑似 the infection and the destruction domestic animal
Cow 153
Sheep 84
Chicken 413
Dog 68 <<


The above machine translated list of animal deaths linked to H5N1 bird flu in and around the Qinghai Lake Nature Reserve in Gangcha County is more than 10 fold higher than the official report of May 21 by China to the OIE. In the May 21 report, there were 519 dead birds, including bar-headed goose (Anser indicus), great black-headed gull (Larus ichthyaetus), brown-headed gull (Larus brunnicephalus), ruddy shelduck (Tadorna ferruginea) and great cormorant (Phalacrocorax carbo). A news conference indicated the number of dead birds was greater than 1000, which was unprecedented.

The latest report, which is not confirmed, details the death of over 8000 birds. This unofficial report is quite specific and contains more detail than the official OIE report, which lists the total number of birds and species, without a further breakdown.

The updated report is alarming in many respects. It would seem that the number of dead birds and species is steadily increasing. The report also includes a small number of mammalian carnivores, which may have died from eating infected birds.

However, the report also lists domestic animals such as cows and sheep. It is not clear if these deaths are somehow linked to the reported foot and mouth outbreaks in China, or if the cows and sheep represent an expanded host range of H5N1. If the host range has expanded to cows and sheep, then it seems that human deaths are likely. Earlier reports detailed 121 human cases and 79 additional infections.

The specifics of these reports have not been addressed by the blanket denials by China. In addition, there has not been any mention of deaths in domestic animals.

The detail in the unofficial reports requires specific confirmations or denials. WHO phone calls and e-mails to China who have denied reports are not sufficient, nor are the WHO comments that they have no reason not to believe the official reports from China.


http://www.recombinomics.com/News/06020501/H5N1_Boxun_Gangcha_Qinghai_8000.html

 

[Martin]

Hmmm Previous reports stated that it was NOT bird flu


Mysterious chicken respiratory illness in Brazil



Authorities ordered the slaughter of 17,000 chickens after 6,000 chickens died from a mysterious respiratory illness in a central western Brazilian state, officials said.



Sanitary authorities do not know what kind of disease the chickens had, but expect to identify it by the end of this week, Gladys Raquel, an animal sanitation manger with the state government of Mato Grosso do Sul state, said in a statement.

Raquel and officials with Brazil's Agriculture Ministry refused to answer questions about the illness, or whether it had similar symptoms to bird flu disease in Asia, saying they want to wait for the test results.

"Several diseases have similar symptoms, and as a result, we can't say which of them is present in the area," Raquel said.

Millions of chickens and other fowl have been slaughtered across Asia since bird flu was first discovered in late 2003 in attempts to stem the disease. A strain of the disease has jumped to humans, killing 54 people in Asia, with Vietnam accounting for 38 of those deaths.

The Brazilian farm in the town of Jaraguari where the chickens died was surrounded with road blocks.

The Agencia Estado news agency also reported that more than 100 other chicken farms were quarantined in Jaraguari, 20 miles from the Mato Grosso do Sul state capital of Campo Grande. Campo Grande is about 750 miles northwest of Sao Paulo.

Brazil is the world's largest chicken exporter. Production in South America's largest country rose 8% last year, with exports skyrocketing 26%, in part because of the outbreak of bird flu in A.



http://www.falkland-malvinas.com/Detalle.asp?NUM=5765

 

[RAT]

bump...the news coming out of China seems to be getting worse by the day!!!



Don't know how many here use therapeutic essential oils...here's where I get mine and I plan on stocking up!

http://www.thebraingarden.com/product_oils_helichrysum.php?oil_page_id=14

 

[RAT]

Regarding the Brain Garden essential oils...for this bird flu I would recommend the 'Spice Trader' and the 'Resiste' which are found in the 'blends' section.

 

[LouKy]

The reason i said the P95's were better than N95's is the N's (or paper masks as i call them) are useless after you breath through them for about an hour. The moisture in your breath ruins the N's. N stands for non-oily environment. This is the warning from 3M which includes all n's and p's. Read number 3 carefully.

Use Instructions
1. Failure to follow all instructions and limitations on the use of this respirator and/or failure to wear this
respirator during all times of exposure can reduce respirator effectiveness and may result in sickness
or death.
2. Before occupational use of this respirator a written respiratory protection program must be
implemented meeting all the requirements of OSHA 29 CFR 1910.134 such as training and fit testing
and applicable OSHA substance specific standards. In Canada, CSA standard Z94.4 requirements
must be met.
3. The airborne contaminants which can be dangerous to your health include those that are so small you
cannot see them.
4. Leave contaminated area immediately and contact supervisor if you smell or taste contaminants or if
dizziness, irritation, or other distress occurs.
5. Store respirator away from contaminated areas when not in use.
6. Dispose of used product in accordance with applicable regulations.

If you are really worried about this disease you need a M-95 or M-100. M stands for micronal.
Here is a sample site for bio masks. I am not affiliated with it , but it shows bio masks.

http://www.store.yahoo.com/diamondback/gasmasandcar1.html

 

[Martin]

There's Gold in Them Chills

By Mark Glassman
June 2, 2005
WHAT DO CANNED CHICKEN SOUP, frozen orange juice and chamomile tea have in common? They all last longer than flu vaccine. The preventative drug has a shelf life of just one year because the vaccine cocktail changes each season, with the introduction of new strains of the influenza virus.

For companies that make the vaccine, the flu season represents the annual culmination of a risky bet made months earlier: that demand will match the supply it has pledged to produce. It has been such a losing proposition over the years that many companies have chosen to stay out of the industry altogether.

But the marketplace for flu vaccines is changing. Higher Medicare reimbursements to physicians, increased media attention each fall (including the 2004 presidential election season) and a burgeoning campaign by immunologists to diminish the threat of a pandemic are creating a more attractive environment for vaccine manufactures.

All of the attention has made more people interested in getting flu shots. That has enticed more companies to apply for approval to make and sell the vaccine, and established players to develop new ways to create it. Suddenly, the flu doesn't seem quite so frightening.

"The business, which has historically been seen as an unprofitable, high-risk business, has become more profitable and less risky," says Aaron Geist, an analyst with Baird U.S. Equity Research.

Today, there only two major suppliers of flu vaccine for the United States. Paris-based Sanofi-Aventis (SNY1) expects to deliver about 60 million doses of its vaccine Fluzone in the 2005-06 flu season, and Chiron (CHIR2), which is based in Emeryville, Calif., will distribute between 25 million and 30 million doses of Fluvirin. MedImmune (MEDI3), located in Gaithersburg, Md., should supply about three million doses of its nasal-spray vaccine, FluMist.

Chiron turned flu vaccination into an election issue last year when the company announced in October that factory contamination would prevent it from supplying the roughly 47 million doses of Fluvirin it had pledged to the United States, about half the country's stock. As a result, the company's revenue from flu vaccines fell to $153.4 million in 2004, a 53.9% drop.

Since then, two other companies have taken steps to join the marketplace. Last week, U.K.-based GlaxoSmithKline (GSK4) submitted a Biologics License Application to the Food and Drug Administration for its vaccine Fluarix. And in late March, Vancouver-based ID Biomedical (IDBE5) announced that it had completed enrollment for its clinical trial program of Fluviral.

"Right now a limited number of companies supply injectable flu vaccine to the entire nation, making the system vulnerable when there are problems with supply as we saw last flu season," said Christopher Viehbacher, the president of the U.S. pharmaceuticals division of GlaxoSmithKline, in a statement last week. The subtext: Last year's troubles exposed a business opportunity that had been dormant for years.

The government, meanwhile, is sparking demand by recommending that more people get flu shots. The government has expanded its pool of what it considers to be a high-risk population, from reports as low as 100 million people in 2004 to about 180 million people today. Only about 80 million typically hold out their arms each year, but that is a substantial increase since the late 1980s, when only about 20 million people were being vaccinated annually. Some industry and political leaders are warming to the idea that everybody should be vaccinated, says Raymond Strikas, associate director for adult immunization at the National Immunization Program at the Centers for Disease Control. The idea of universal immunization was mentioned at the National Influenza Vaccine Summit in Chicago last month, according to the Associated Press.

"There is definitely room to grow," says Alison Marquis, a spokeswoman for Chiron.

Ramping up production to inoculate the entire country (about 296 million people) would not be possible until 2007 at the earliest, says Strikas. But it would take years to get demand that high absent a federal mandate. Right now, the private sector accounts for more than 80% of the vaccine purchases made in the country.

The government has taken several measures to boost demand, including spending more on promotional activities and educational materials that endorse flu shots. It has also helped boost drug makers' profit margins, by raising Medicare reimbursement payments for the vaccine from $8.02 to $10.10. Medicare has also raised the amount that doctors can collect for administering the shot, from an average of $3.98 in 2002 to $18.57 in 2005.

Last year, in the wake of the Chiron news, the Department of Health and Human Services essentially took out a flu insurance policy when it awarded a $10 million contract to Sanofi-Aventis to keep production materials available year-round in case of a flu pandemic or vaccine shortage.

The CDC and the world immunization community have also been paying more attention to avian flu, a type of influenza virus that is carried and spread through birds. Avian flu presents a grave and significant threat because drug companies have not developed a vaccine program against it, so should it mutate to become easily transmittable while retaining its ability to make people sick, the disease could kill millions in a matter of months. Some of the world's leading immunologists pushed for renewed efforts to combat a potential pandemic from the avian flu in last Thursday's issue of Nature magazine. That could translate into large contracts for companies already doing similar work with the human influenza virus.

"If you look at the long term," says Marquis, "increased vaccination every year sets up the infrastructure so that if a pandemic would occur, you would have that system in place to prevent that pandemic from spreading further."

Of course, avian flu is a different virus entirely and would require substantial research and investment to treat. Moreover, the profit margins for a world health emergency are likely to be pretty small, says Eric Schmidt, a pharmaceutical analyst at SG Cowen. "No one wants to make money off a public disaster."

Even so, garden-variety human influenza is starting to look like a much healthier bet for pharmaceutical makers.


http://www.smartmoney.com/print/index.cfm?printcontent=/stockwatch/index.cfm?story=20050602a

 

[Martin]

China Reportedly Covering Up Bird Flu, Foot and Mouth Outbreaks
Concerns Raised About Censorship of News on Epidemics

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
By Li Dan
The Epoch Times
Jun 02, 2005





With recent reports in major Chinese newspapers on outbreaks of bird flu and foot and mouth disease, concerns have arisen that the Chinese Communist Party will employ cover-ups as it did with the SARS incident in 2003.
World health organizations and the United Nations are paying attention to the situation.

The Chinese government has officially verified that there is an outbreak of bird flu affecting bird species in Qinghai and that foot and mouth disease is affecting livestock in Shandong and Jiangsu provinces. Authorities have denied the incident outbreak of foot and mouth disease on the outskirts of Beijing, although it has been widely reported by media.

The government has strengthened measures to control the spread of the epidemic. On May 25, authorities in Guangzhou and Shanghai, and in Hebei province issued emergency instructions requesting that measures taken to sanitize bird species be bolstered and that contact between wild birds, poultry and humans be prevented. Similarly, many of the villages in the outskirts of Beijing where foot and mouth disease have been reported have been cordoned off. Outsiders were prohibited from entering and interviews have not been allowed.

On the May 4, the China agricultural ministry received reports of the unusual deaths of 178 bar-headed geese on the Qinghai lake bird island. On May 21, it was announced that the cause of the deaths of wild migrating birds in Qinghai was the H5N1 bird flu virus. After investigation, it was discovered that 519 migrating birds have died from the virus.

According to reports by Voice of America on May 24, the health ministry officer firmly denied reports of more than 100 human deaths from bird flu besides bird flu in the Qinghai region. However, the health department in Qinghai province has requested that all levels of medical and health organizations be on the alert for cases of flu, fever and other unknown cases of pneumonia. Such cases have to be registered, investigated and diagnosed. Once an incident of the disease is suspected, it must be immediately reported, quarantined and treated. At the same time, safety measures must be taken for those treating the patient.

According to reports by Radio Free Asia, relevant authorities in China have tightly blocked off all news, prohibiting the family members of patients from speaking to outsiders. While conducting interviews, RFA's reporters discovered that the telephone connection in the area of Quanji village (one of the reported epidemic regions) is abnormal.

The spokesperson for the World Health Organization stationed in Beijing said recently, when he learned of Internet reports that 120 people in Qinghai had the H5N1 virus and died, he had sought to obtain more information from China's Ministry of Health and urged them to provide the WHO with samples of the virus so that tests and comparisons could be made.

Meanwhile, after it was reported that cows imported from China to Hong Kong were found to have foot and mouth disease, the agricultural department in China verified that there was a small outbreak of foot and mouth disease in Jiangsu and Shandong provinces; 183 and 40 cows were killed in the two provinces, respectively.

On May 24, a report by Hong Kong newspapers pointed out that an outbreak of foot and mouth disease had been discovered in the outskirts of Beijing, Yanqing region Jiuxian county. Reuters and the International Herald Tribune also reported thousands of cows being killed in outskirts of Beijing. Villagers said that Jiuxian county was cordoned off. People and vehicles were prohibited from entering and leaving. A reporter for a Hong Kong newspaper tried to conduct an interview but was stopped by policemen and security officers on the road 10 miles from Yanqing region. A local resident said, five or six villages were blocked off.

The Wall Street Journal reported on May 24 that Chinese authorities have treated the current epidemic with the same tactics as in the SARS outbreak. After it was found in Hong Kong that meat imported from China had foot and mouth disease, authorities had no choice but to publicly admit the fact. In March, 16 cows imported from China into Hong Kong were found to be infected with the Type 1 Asia foot and mouth disease. This led to 7,147 pigs, 560 cows and 120 lambs in the same slaughterhouse in Hong Kong being killed.


http://english.epochtimes.com/news/5-6-2/29240.html

 

[Martin]

China denies human deaths from bird flu

Map of China, with Qinghai province in red
3 June 2005
Source:


Officials in China have denied reports, published on the Internet, that 200 people have contracted bird flu in Qinghai province and that 121 have died from the infection.

The reports originated from the US-based Chinese news agency Boxun News and were repeated by ProMED—mail, an online reporting system that warns of outbreaks of infectious diseases.

In 2003, ProMed—mail broke the news of China's outbreak of SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) after it was reported by Boxun News. At the time, China had yet to report the outbreak.

Denying Boxun's claim that bird flu had claimed human lives in China, the official Xinhua news agency added that hospitals in Gangca county, where the bird flu cases were reported had opened a separate department for patients with fever.

The World Health Organization says it has no reason to believe the Chinese authorities' denial of human cases of bird flu.

http://www.scidev.net/News/index.cfm?fuseaction=printarticle&itemid=2132&language=1

 

[Martin]

H5N1 Similarity in Chicken and Swine in Shandong China

Recombinomics Commentary
June 3, 2005

The sequences of three genes, HA, NA, NP from a 2002 isolate, A/chicken/China/1/02(H5N1), from a chicken in Shandong Province has been placed on deposit at GenBank. The sequences of all three genes are most closely related to the 2003 isolate, A/swine/shandong/2/03(H5N1), from a swine in Shandong Province. The swine sequence was closely related to H5N1 isolates from several provinces in China, raising the possibility of more H5N1 infections in swine and the potential to recombine to expand the host range of H5N1.

These data are similar to the data for the H5N1 sequences isolated in swine in Indonesia. The H5N1 positive swine were near H5N1 positive chickens and the sequences were similar. A recent report to OIE on the H5N1 in swine supported the declaration that H5N1 was endemic to Indonesia, and the detection in asymptomatic pigs was cause for concern.

The concerns have be increased by the unprecedented die off of birds in Qinghai Lake. The OIE report detailed 519 deaths in five species, but this report was flowed by reports of over 1000 deaths followed by reports of over 8000 deaths in birds and mammals. Coinciding with the animal reports are reports of the deaths of 6 tourists and 121 residents in 18 villages in and around Gangcha County in Qinghai Province.


http://www.recombinomics.com/News/06030501/H5N1_Chicken_Shandong.html

 

[Martin]

Note this is a translation from chinese Abundant News

Qinghai birds and beasts flu epidemic disease area birds large-scale infection death picture material(chart)

(Abundant news on June 03, 2005)

On June 3, 2005 the Xining news, according to internal public figure's news supply, the partial pictures material which presently just collects sends out, following picture material photography time blocks after for Niao Island on May 27, 2005, the picture provides by the internal public figure, is unable stemming from the security reason to provide this public figure material, through the picture may understand the birds and beasts flu the serious harm, the entire Niao Island nearly becomes the bird birds and beasts the hell, we can collect with every effort may prove the person infects the picture evidence, refutes the government the absurd opinion.

Photographs the region to infect and the death quantity relative more regions for Niao Island.

Chart 1 looks by far, a piece of bird birds and beasts' hell, the everywhere death bird, airborne nearly cannot see the soaring bird

Chart 2


From pushes near, may see many birds already died, very many birds also were suffocating, the bird which stood already are not many

According to measures with the eye, only at that time already died bird's quantity already surpassed several thousand.

Lanzhou retransmits _ (abundant news freely to send manuscript area to send manuscript) (abundant news boxun.com)

 

[almost ready]

That is horribly chilling. Have you been able to see the actual photos, Martin?

 

[Martin]

No, just these from the Abundant News(China). It is quite unusual to have pictures of these activities.

 

[Martin]

Bird flu warning on medicine



Matthew Lee


June 4, 2005



Taking anti-influenza medicine needlessly may hasten the spread of bird flu by decreasing the drug's force against the virus, a doctor warned.

Public awareness of bird flu - which the World Health Organization predicts could infect 30 million and kill 7.5 million people worldwide - has been lowering in the past few months while the risks remain just as high, Center for Health Protection controller Leung Pak-yin said Friday.

He warned against taking Tamiflu, which is seen as the last defense against the H5N1 virus, as a preventive medication for common flu.

``If people take Tamiflu whenever they catch common flu, when a flu pandemic comes the virus may already be drug-resistant, and that will affect the whole picture of infection control,'' Leung said.

Tamiflu and Relenza are believed to be the two most effective medications to treat both influenza A and B viruses, including the bird flu virus.

The government has earmarked an extra HK$245 million to increase stocks of Tamiflu to 20 million tablets by the end of the year.

There were three flu pandemics in the 20th century - in 1918, 1957 and 1968.

``When a flu pandemic hits, there will usually be a second or third wave attack,'' Leung said.

``If we used up most of our stock even before the pandemic, we would have no defense when the virus launched its next round of attacks.''

He anticipated that about 15 percent of Hong Kong's population, or about one million people, would be infected if the widely expected bird flu pandemic hits locally.

``Unlike Sars, we can hardly avoid contacting the flu virus when the pandemic hits.

``Instead, we aim to keep the infected patient numbers low and protect medical staff against the infection, so that we can delay the damage and buy time for more powerful medications or vaccines to be developed,'' he said.

But Leung also said there is no sign that the H5N1 virus is mutating into a form capable of being transmitted between humans, or of human flu virus H3N2 mutating to contain genes of bird flu virus. Either scenario would be vital to the pandemic.

A list of possible isolation camp sites will be compiled later, including locations that were used during the Sars crisis, and vacant buildings. If there is massive infection, home isolation will be considered first.

The center's consultant, Thomas Tsang, also revealed that the trend of human flu infection seems to strengthening. Expecting the trend to continue for the next two weeks, he warned that it could extend to August.

``Usually, the trend drops in April and May,'' Tsang said. ``But we are seeing an upward trend [and] will continue monitoring if the number of infection keeps rising.''

Leung was reported recently as saying the reason for this upward trend is similar to that in 2001, when three kinds of flu virus were active at the same time - H3N2, H1N1 and influenza B.


The average consultation rates for flu among private doctors and public doctors were 90 and 12 per 1,000, respectively, in the week ending May 28.

Most of the recent cases have been the California strain of the H3N2 virus.


``There is no 100 percent protection,'' said Tsang. ``Maintaining good personal hygiene remains the best line of defense.''



matthew.lee@singtaonewscorp.com

http://www.thestandard.com.hk/stdn/std/Metro/GF04Ak02.html

 

[BB]

From Dr. Niman

Commentary
.
Expanding Fever Clinics in Gangcha County Qinghai China

Recombinomics Commentary
June 3, 2005

>> I am having sore throat lately, guess I am smoking too much, went to the Gangcha County People Hospital to get some antibiotic. The hospital was awfully busy moving and cleaning. My doctor friend told me thay are expanding infection wards, and transferred many doctors from other hospitals. he also told me not to go out if possible. many hospitals in Qinghai are building additional infection branch, expanding and building more infection wards and increasing medical staff. I felt anxious hearing all of this. I got some antibiotic and went home.

I learned to play computer games lately, and knew about avian flu is happening here. I hope avian flu won't spread through the computer network. We used to have pesticide. What do we use to prevent this virus? My little turtledove disappeared. Could it be my neighbor's bird snapped it away? How awful! <<

The above is a translation of yesterday's Abundant News story on the increased activity at clinics in and around Gangcha County. Although the report is unconfirmed, it raises additional concerns. China has admitted that fever clinic(s) were being expanded, but there have been no reports of who is being admitted to these clinics. Moreover there have not been third party investigations of the reports.

Earlier reports indicated there would be news blackouts, and there has been specific information on human cases other than blanket denials of reported cases,

Clearly third party investigations of these reports of H5N1 bird flu in people and other mammals are required to reduce the speculation about the Abundant News reports, which describes a serious situation that would appear to be at the final flu pandemic phase 6 level, which is defined by widespread and sustained human-to-human transmission of a non-human influenza strain likeH5N1.

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/06030505/H5N1_Fever_Clinics_Qinghai.html